The Last Plague : Investigating the Lethality of Pandemics Using Deterministic and Stochastic Epidemic Models Wang, Li Qing; Wu, GuanYue (Uma)
This project investigates the effects of seven parameters on the spread of viral epidemics: infectivity, infectious period, mobility, incubation period, mortality, immunity and recovery period. Two algorithms were created to simulate the progression – one stochastic, and one deterministic. While the deterministic model simulates the spread through regulating the flux between compartments, the stochastic model simulates the spread by applying the parameters as a set of probabilities. The models were calibrated with current data on SARS and Ebola from WHO. Using optimization methods, we found the characteristics of viral diseases that would lead to the most lethal disease, marked by death rates of 92.26% of the world population in the deterministic model and 98.76% in the stochastic model. By investigating the effect of each parameter on the disease, we found that the key factors in regulating the spread of an epidemic are percentage immunity, mobility and recovery rate.
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