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Self fulfilling prophecy? : electroal expectations and the rise of reform in 1993 Bittner, Amanda J.

Abstract

The 1993 Canadian Federal Election marked a turning point in the Canadian political system, with the emergence of two new political parties, the decimation of the oldest party in Canada, and the beginning of more than a decade of Liberal dominance. A number of explanations have been put forth by scholars since 1993, and this study explores one possible explanation for the outcome of this election, by looking at the role of expectations in the campaign. There is growing evidence that voters incorporate more than political ideology or impressions of political parties into their decision-making processes, that campaigns do matter, and that voters are thinking forward to electoral outcomes when marking their ballots. A number of statistical models are incorporated into this study, in order to look at the pattern, sources, and impact of expectations in 1993. In sum, the data indicate that expectations did indeed play a role in influencing the outcome of the election, in particular, in influencing the vote for the Reform Party.

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