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Application of finite element reliability analysis and decision tree analysis in seismic retrofit strategy selection

University of British Columbia

Earthquakes were taking place from the very beginning of the earth’s creation. However, with the expansion of the human population and the civilization, the destructive nature of earthquakes is felt more frequently and vibrantly at the present time than before. With time, building codes for the earthquake resistant design are changing. Building owners are facing the pressure from themselves (morally, financially) and from the government, municipalities etc. to upgrade their structures to meet the present code standard. But to upgrade a structure, the owner is often required to make a considerable investment. Before making a decision to invest, an owner looks at how much the loss can be reduced due to the upgrade of his/her structure. Hence, it is the responsibility of the engineer to provide necessary information to the owners regarding different retrofit options and what benefit these retrofit options will yield, so that owners can make a comparison between different options prior to making a decision. There are uncertainties associated with the occurrence of future earthquakes and with the degree of damage of the structure given an earthquake. Therefore, with each outcome, there is probability associated. In NBCC 2005 (National Building Code of Canada 2005), earthquake hazard data is provided for the earthquakes that have 2% chance of occurrence in 50 years for major cities of Canada. Utilizing this information with finite element reliability analysis, it is then possible to determine the probability of failure of the structure for a defined damage state. In this thesis, finite element reliability analysis is used in conjunction with decision tree analysis, in order to provide a framework for presenting information to the owners. The damage state is defined by the cost of damage. From finite element reliability analysis, the failure probabilities of the structure with and without different retrofit options are determined. The probabilities of occurrence of different events considered in the decision tree are thereby determined. All information (probability and cost) are presented in a decision tree, so that owners can make their decision by comparing of the expected cost of different retrofit options as well as the "do nothing" option. A comprehensive numerical example is provided in this thesis to explain the proposed methodology.

Text

2010-01-12

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http://hdl.handle.net/2429/18065

Civil Engineering

University of British Columbia

UBCV

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