International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Strategies for separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties Koduru, Smitha D.


Practical applications for separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties are demonstrated with two examples applied to steel structures and pipelines. These examples show the need for separation of uncertainties, the application of existing strategies and their limitations. The first example pertains to the behaviour of a simple steel connection subjected to combined axial, shear and moment loading. Uncertainties in the material properties of the connection components are shown to have a significant influence on the model uncertainty corresponding to the connection moment capacity. The second example shows that the uncertainties in the geometric imperfections of a steel pipeline contribute to the total model uncertainty in the strain capacity of the pipe. More such case studies demonstrating the utility of separation of epistemic uncertainty are expected to lead to increased efficiency in future model development.

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