Uncertainty propagation in seismic reliability evaluation of aging transportation networks Rokneddin, Keivan; Ghosh, Jayadipta; Dueñas-Osorio, Leonardo; Padgett, Jamie E.
Uncertainty quantification is an integral part of many fields of science and engineering, but its application to seismic reliability and risk assessment in highway transportation networks is still in its infancy. This study identifies major known sources of uncertainties associated with seismic loss assessments in aging transportation networks, including hazards, structures, aging parameters, and network topology sources, while quantifying the impact of a subset of them on mean network-level reliability estimates. The uncertainty tracking process is illustrated with a case study network in South Carolina, USA. The source-to-response uncertainties are propagated and errors aggregated as they emerge with the adoption of surrogate seismic response models at both bridge and network levels. The observed range of uncertainties from the considered sources suggests that uncertainty quantification must become a standard procedure for reliability and risk assessment in transportation networks. Moreover, while the bridge surrogate models contribute significantly to overall uncertainties, network surrogate model’s contribution is found to be the least of all considered variables. Future opportunities exist to further identify key sources that should be targeted for improved confidence in risk estimates.
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