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International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Estimation of the failure probability of a floating wind turbine under environmental load Murangira, Achille; Zuniga, Miguel Munoz; Perdrizet, Timothée

Abstract

This present paper deals with the choice of stochastic expansion models for load processes in structural reliability of floating wind turbines. Two widely used models, the spectral representation method and the Karhunen-Loeve (KL) expansion are compared as far as their use in reliability assessment based on real world wind speed data. The use of expansion models makes it possible to compute the outcrossing rate using time invariant reliability methods. We assume stationary conditions and define and compare several outcrossing rate estimators based on a design point computation. We first adapt the PHI2 method to functionals, and specify a closed form of Koo et al. (2005)’s estimator for the KL model. An importance sampling scheme based on the design point with and without an additional Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampler is then suggested and its effectiveness is assessed for the KL model.

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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 Canada