International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Subset simulation-based random finite element method for slope reliability analysis and risk assessment Li, Dianqing; Xiao, Te; Cao, Zijun; Zhou, Chuangbing


Spatial variability is one of the most significant uncertainties in soil properties that affect the reliability of slope stability. It can be incorporated into slope reliability analysis and risk assessment through random finite element method (RFEM) in a rigorous manner. The great potential of RFEM in reliability analysis and risk assessment of soil slopes has been demonstrated in previous studies. Nevertheless, it often suffers from a common criticism of requiring extensive computational efforts and a lack of efficiency, particularly at small probability levels. This study develops an efficient RFEM that integrates RFEM with an advanced Monte Carlo Simulation method called “Subset Simulation (SS)”. By this means, the computational efficiency of calculating the failure probability and risk is significantly improved. This enhances the applications of RFEM in slope reliability analysis and risk assessment at small probability levels. In addition, the proposed SS-based RFEM also provides insights into the relative contributions of slope failure risk at different probability levels to the overall risk. Finally, the proposed approach is illustrated through a soil slope example. It is shown that the slope failure probability and risk can be evaluated properly using SS-based RFEM.

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