International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Probabilistic model for ageing masonry walls Micic, Tatyana; Asenov, Milos


This paper considers a probabilistic model of masonry wall capable to take into account uncertainties caused by ageing and site specific parameters. We define masonry wall uncertainties using random variable representation for geometric, load and mechanical properties and then by introducing specific probabilistic deterioration model. Subsequently, we use probabilistic analysis in ANSYS (APDL) using Monte Carlo simulation method and Latin Hypercube sampling technique with aim to approximate the cumulative distribution function for the von Mises stress and displacement at particular location. It is demonstrated that the likelihood of exceedance of critical parameters such as displacements and von Mises stresses due to ageing could be quantified.

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