International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Return period determination for several extreme rainfall-induced events using the IDF relationship obtained via copulas Bezak, Nejc; Šraj, Mojca; Brilly, Mitja; Mikoš, Matjaž


Flash floods, debris flows and shallow landslides are all induced by intensive rainfall events, where antecedent precipitation conditions can play an important role in triggering these kinds of natural catastrophic events. This study presents the methodology used for the construction of the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationship using the Frank copula function and the evaluation of the different empirical rainfall threshold curves for several extreme events, which happened in Slovenia in the last 25 years and caused 17 casualties and about 500 million Euros of economic losses. The results show that different empirical rainfall threshold curves should be included in the early warning system where measuring rainfall network should have an adequate spatial resolution. The differences in estimated return periods with the use of classical and copula approaches can be significant, however differences can also be the result of relatively short series. The results demonstrate that in case of shorter data series the classical univariate methodology should be preferred.

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