International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Age- and state-dependent seismic reliability of structures Iervolino, Iunio; Giorgio, Massimiliano; Chioccarelli, Eugenio


Life-cycle analysis of civil structures requires stochastic modeling of degradation. Phenomena causing structures to degrade are typically categorized as aging and point-in-time overloads. The former refers to deterioration of material characteristics and/or small yet frequent shocks, while earthquake effects are the members of the latter category this study deals with. Earthquake damage is usually modeled as dependent on the state of the structure at the time of each seismic shock only, while increments of deterioration due to aging are typically assumed to depend on the age of the structure at the most. While several studies deal with stochastic modeling of degradation they neglect, in an attempt to obtain easy-to-compute equations for the life-cycle reliability, to account at the same time for both forms of dependency. The presented study explicitly addresses this issue via a Markov-chain-based approach. Indeed, the model, which is practically in closed-form even if approximate, is able to describe a generic age- and state-dependent degradation process. The model also relies on the homogeneous Poisson process assumption for earthquake occurrence, a common case in seismic hazard analysis. An illustrative application shows the potential of the model.

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