International Construction Specialty Conference of the Canadian Society for Civil Engineering (ICSC) (5th : 2015)

Modeling subway risk assessment using fuzzy logic Abouhamad, Mona; Zayed, Tarek


According to the Canadian Urban Transit Association (CUTA 2012), 140 Billion CAD is required to maintain, rehabilitate, and replace subway infrastructure between the years 2010 and 2014. However, transit authorities are faced by a fund scarcity problem which is hindering them from addressing all the network rehabilitation requirements in an efficient manner. The solution according to the 2013 America’s infrastructure report card is to adopt a comprehensive asset management system to maximize investments. This research develops a risk assessment model for subway stations. Probability of failure of different subway elements are developed using Weibull reliability curves. Consequences of failure are measured against three predefined attributes these are financial, operational, and social impacts of failure. Finally, a criticality index measures the respective station criticality derived from its particular size, location in proximity to different attraction types, and, nature of use. A qualitative approach with the help of expert judgment is adopted to integrate the indices using the Fuzzy Analytic Network Process with application to Fuzzy Preference Programming. The three models are integrated into a fuzzy rule based risk index model to compute element and station expected risk index. The output of the model is a comprehensive risk index that can be used to prioritize elements across stations for rehabilitation. The model is verified through an actual case study comparing elements across six stations and computing probability of failure, consequence of failure, criticality and the risk index. This paper illustrates the general framework of the proposed methodology which will help decision makers prioritize stations and elements across stations for rehabilitation based upon their risk index.

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