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An application of Rosenau's pre-theory to the Sino-Indian and Sino-Burmese boundary disputes Charlebois, Carol Ann Ruth 1969

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AN APPLICATION OF ROSENAU'S PRE-THEORY TO THE SINO-INDIAN AND SING-BURMESE BOUNDARY DISPUTES by CAROL ANN RUTH CHARLEBOIS B.A., University of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1967 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS in the Department of POLITICAL SCIENCE We accept t h i s thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA August, 1969 In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f the r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r an advanced degree a t the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h C olumbia, I a g r e e t h a t t h e L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t . f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and Study. I f u r t h e r a g r e e t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be g r a n t e d by the Head o f my Department or by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l not be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Department The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada - i -ABSTRACT This paper'is an attempt to explore some of the linkages between national and international p o l i t i c a l systems through an application of a modified version of Rosenau's pre-theory to the Sino-Indian and Sino-Burmese border disputes. The Indian and Burmese cases presented contrasts on some of the variables considered i n Rosenau's theory along with marked differences i n the consequences of p o l i c y outputs. The case studies revealed important differences i n the foreign p o l i c y making processes that could be linked to Rosenau's variables and to outcomes and consequences. Concepts developed within the f i e l d of foreign p o l i c y analysis, the study of international p o l i t i c a l systems, and the theory of bargaining can r e a d i l y be encompassed within the model. The model, however, presents some problems of d e f i n i t i o n and problems i n causal analysis. TABLE OF CONTENTS The Model The H i s t o r i c a l S i t u a t i o n D e f i n i t i o n o f t h e P r o c e s s V a r i a b l e s The Four P r o c e s s V a r i a b l e s and P o l i c y Outcomes i n Burma and I n d i a The P r o c e s s e s S e l e c t e d B i b l i o g r a p h y A ppendix A Appendix B Appendix C - i i i -LIST: OF TABLES T a b l e I I s s u e A r e a s T a b l e I I G o a l Locus and S t a b i l i t y T a b l e I I I P r e s s O p i n i o n i n I n d i a T a b l e IV I n p u t - O u t p u t S t a t e s f o r Burma T a b l e V D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Burmese In p u t - O u t p u t S t a t e s T a b l e VI I n p u t - O u t p u t S t a t e s f o r I n d i a T a b l e V I I D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Burmese I n p u t - O u t p u t S t a t e s T a b l e V I I I The R e l a t i o n s h i p s between I n p u t s and Outputs i n I n d i a and Burma T a b l e IX F l e x i b i l i t y and R i g i d i t y i n I n d i a and . Burma - iv -LIST. OF- FIGURES F i g u r e I The Model F i g u r e I I Number o f Notes C o n c e r n i n g B o r d e r I n c i d e n t s F i g u r e I I I Number o f Notes L o d g i n g P r o t e s t s The Model A common method o f d i s t i n g u i s h i n g between approaches t o t h e s t u d y o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s has been t h a t t h a t d i s -t i n g u i s h e s between th e s t u d y o f f o r e i g n p o l i c y and t h e s t u d y o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l s y s t e m . ^ The f o r e i g n p o l i c y a p p r o a c h , found i n most i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s t e x t b o o k s a t t e m p t s t o answer q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g t h e f o r m a t i o n o f a f o r e i g n p o l i c y and c o n c e r n s i t s e l f w i t h f a c t o r s such as n a t i o n a l g o a l s , t h e p e r s o n a l i t i e s o f t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s , t h e n a t u r e o f t h e governmental.system and o t h e r f a c t o r s t h a t c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e f o r m a t i o n o f a p o l i c y . T h i s approach has become most s y s t e m a t i z e d and most r e s t r i c t i v e i n t h e d e c i s i o n making approach ] / E l i z a b e t h C onverse, "The War o f A l l A g a i n s t A l l : A Review of t h e J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n , 1957-1968" J o u r n a l  of C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n p. 485. K l a u s K n o r r and Sidney V e r b a , " I n t r o d u c t i o n " i n K n o r r and V e r b a , ( e d s . ) , The I n t e r n a t i o n a l System, ( P r i n c e t o n / New J e r s e y : P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1961), pp. 1-5. Dean G. P r u i t t , "An A n a l y s i s o f R e s p o n s i v e n e s s Between N a t i o n s " J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n , v o l . VI no. I pp. 5-18. James N. R o s e n a u - " P r e - t h e o r i e s a n d . T h e o r i e s o f F o r e i g n P o l i c y , " i n B a r r y R. F a r r e l l , (ed.) Approaches t o Compara-t i v e and I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s ( E v anston: N o r t h w e s t e r n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1966), pp. 27-92. F r e d A. Sondermann, "The L i n k a g e Between F o r e i g n P o l i c y and I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s " i n J.N. Rosenau, ( e d . ) , I n t e r -n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s and F o r e i g n P o l i c y : A Reader i n R e s e a r c h and Theory. (New Y o r k : F r e e P r e s s , 1961),pp. : i - 2 -o f R i c h a r d Snyder and h i s a s s o c i a t e s . ' Works w i t h a s y s t e m i c o r i e n t a t i o n f o c u s upon such q u e s t i o n s as t h e s t a b i l i t y o f t h e system, t h e i n t e g r a t i o n o r d i s i n t e g r a t i o n o f t h e system o r t h e pr e s e n c e o r absence of. v i o l e n c e i n t h e system. I n h i s " P r e - t h e o r i e s and T h e o r i e s o f F o r e i g n P o l i c y " James N. Rosenau p l e a d s t h e need f o r an approach t h a t w i l l f o c u s a t t e n t i o n b o t h on q u e s t i o n s o f f o r m a t i o n o f p o l i c y and upon t h e n a t u r e o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l system and a l s o upon t h e l i n k a g e s between system and sub-system. The f o r e i g n p o l i c y a p p roach, as much as i t t r e a t s t h e e f f e c t o f f a c t o r s i n t h e i n t e r - n a t i o n a l environment as i n p u t s i n t o t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s , touches upon one o f . t h e l i n k a g e s . . T h i s work however has i n no way been c a r r i e d on s y s t e m a t i c a l l y . The o t h e r l i n k a g e , sub-system o u t p u t s i n t o t h e system has n o t u s u a l l y been a f o c u s o f a t t e n t i o n . Even t h e f i r s t s t e p i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n , a c l a s s i -f i c a t i o n o f t y p e s o f f o r e i g n p o l i c y o u t p u t s , has n o t o f t e n been 3/ t a k e n . ' S t u d e n t s e m p l o y i n g t h e s y s t e m i c approach have a l s o 2/ R.C. S.nyder, K.W. Bruck and B. Sapin,. ( e d s . ) , F o r e i g n P o l i c y  D e c i s i o n - M a k i n g , (New Yo r k : F r e e P r e s s , 19 62). By r e s t r i c t i v e I mean n o t a l l o w i n g q u e s t i o n s o f any n a t u r e o t h e r t h a n the "why" o f f o r e i g n p o l i c y d e c i s i o n making t o be asked. 3/ Two works t h a t do t o some e x t e n t a r e Rudolph J . Rummel '"Dimensions o f C o n f l i c t B e h a v i o r W i t h i n and Between N a t i o n s " , G e n e r a l Systems: Yearbook o f t h e S o c i e t y f o r G e n e r a l Systems  R e s e a r c h , 1963,.1-50. and Andrew M. S c o t t , The F u n c t i o n i n g o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l System, (New Yo r k : The M a c M i l l a n ~ Company, 1967). - 3 -made some attempt at l i n k i n g sub-system and system. Even the most abstract systemic approaches usually d i f f e r e n t i a t e sub-4/ systems along the power dimension. ' There.has been increasing attention given to the consequences for the system of d i f f e r e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n s of sub-systems d i f f e r e n t i a t e d according to such c r i t e r i a - a s l e v e l of economic development or degree of in t e r n a l 5/ c o n f l i c t . ' Rosenau, i n his pre-theory, attempts to systematically focus attention on some of these linkages using the concepts of national a t t r i b u t e s , penetration, issue areas, and process variables. The systemic process variable and the concept of penetration r e l a t e to one linkage, systemic inputs into the sub-system. As i t stands the pre-theory does not tre a t sub-systemic outputs. The scheme i s truncated and biased i n favor 4/ Wolfram F. Hanreider,."The International System: Bipolar or Multibloc?" Journal of C o n f l i c t Resolution, Vol. IX No. 3, pp. 299-308. R.N. Rosecrance, " B i p o l a r i t y , M u l t i p o l a r i t y , and.the Future". Journal of C o n f l i c t Resolution. Vol. X No. 3, pp. 314-327. 5/ M.G. Lagos, International S t r a t i f i c a t i o n and Underdeveloped  Countries Chapel H i l l : University North Carolina Press, 1963. Rummel, op. c i t . - 4 -o f a f o r e i g n p o l i c y approach. ' T h i s paper i s an a t t e m p t t o e x t e n d t h e p r e - t h e o r y t h r o u g h t h e l i n k i n g o f p r o c e s s t o o u t p u t and o u t p u t t o s y s t e m i c consequences and t o a p p l y t h e m o d i f i e d p r e - t h e o r y i n a two case s t u d y o f t h e S i n o - I n d i a n and S i n o -Burmese boundary d i s p u t e s . 7 / Rosenau's model i n c l u d e s t h r e e s e t s o f v a r i a b l e s . ' (1) n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s ; (2) p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e s , and (3) i s s u e a r e a s . B o t h n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s and i s s u e a r e a s have consequences f o r t h e r e l a t i v e p o t e n cy o f t h e p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e s . I have ex-tended t h e model f i r s t w i t h a l i n k a g e from p r o c e s s t o o u t p u t s , w h i c h have been c l a s s i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e degree o f r i g i d i t y o r f l e x i b i l i t y i n a s e r i e s o f o u t p u t s . The o u t p u t s have t h e n been l i n k e d t o t h e consequences f o r t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l system, w h i c h have been d e s c r i b e d , a c c o r d i n g t o t h e s u c c e s s o r f a i l u r e o f n e g o t i a t i o n s . The p o r t i o n o f t h e model a p p l i c a b l e t o t h e bound-a r y d i s p u t e s i s shown i n Diagram I . The v a r i a b l e s a r e d e f i n e d i n t h e body o f t h e paper. 6/ Rosenau e x p l a i n s why h i s model i s p r e - t h e o r e t i c a l r a t h e r t h a n t h e o r e t i c a l : "To be t h e o r e t i c a l . i n n a t u r e , t h e r a n k i n g s would have t o s p e c i f y how much more p o t e n t each s e t o f v a r i a b l e s i s t h a n t h o s e below i t on each s c a l e , and t h e v a r i a b l e s t h e m s e l v e s would have t o be c a u s a l l y l i n k e d t o s p e c i f i c forms o f e x t e r n a l b e h a v i o r . " Rosenau, op. c i t . , p. 47. I agree t h e f i r s t t a s k mentioned cannot be a t t e m p t e d now b u t f e e l t h a t t h e l i n k a g e f rom p r o c e s s t o o u t p u t can be worked upon. 7/ The concept o f p e n e t r a t i o n i s n o t i n c l u d e d i n the m o d i f i e d p r e - t h e o r y as I f e l t t h e phenomenon t h a t i t f o c u s e s upon ar e a d e q u a t e l y h a n d l e d t h r o u g h t h e s y s t e m i c p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e . - 5 -H IH <D fl) u 0 •A in 0 v. >-i v. y> c c") O o en i QJ <. C 4 , 3 0 i u c 0 • on c I e 1 3 l :.™^ 5 u: c J c 0 2 i n c < 5 ^ c 0 'in C 4 L > 0 n il o n 0 v u u c i <i o c u t 0 L 6 -*i i J Jt * - 6 -The l i n k a g e s r e p r e s e n t e d by d o u b l e l i n e s i n Diagram I a r e b e s t d e s c r i b e d i n t h e form o f h y p o t h e s e s . L i n k a g e 1 N a t i o n a l A t t r i b u t e s t o P r o c e s s V a r i a b l e s H i : I n s m a l l n a t i o n s s y s t e m i c f a c t o r s w i l l be r e l a t i v e l y i m p o r t a n t i n t h e p o l i c y - m a k i n g p r o c e s s . R a t i o n a l e : T h i s i d e a may be somewhat a k i n t o Rosenau's concept o f p e n e t r a t i o n . S m a l l n a t i o n s because o f l a c k o f power and o t h e r r e s o u r c e s would seem t o be more v u l n e r a b l e t o t h e environment. P o l i c y - m a k e r s would p r o b a b l y f e e l i m p e l l e d t o g i v e e n v i r o n m e n t a l f a c t o r s more w e i g h t t h a n would p o l i c y makers i n l a r g e n a t i o n s who may have r e s o u r c e s t o e n a b l e them t o i g n o r e o r change t h e e n v i r o n m e n t . I n d i a and Burma p r o v i d e a good com-p a r i s o n h e r e . H2: I n underdeveloped c o u n t r i e s i d i o s y n c r a t i c v a r i -a b l e s w i l l be second i n i m p o r t a n c e i n s m a l l n a t i o n s and most i m p o r t a n t i n l a r g e n a t i o n s . R a t i o n a l e : Where t h e r e i s a r e l a t i v e l y low l e v e l o f i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z a t i o n o f t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s and where a r e l a t i v e l y low l e v e l o f m o b i l i z a t i o n o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n makes f o r i n e f f e c t i v e i n t e r e s t group p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h e p r o c e s s , i d i o -s y n c r a t i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s would seem t o be o f g r e a t consequence ( i n e f f e c t t h r o u g h d e f a u l t o f o t h e r f a c t o r s ) . T h i s i d e a i s p r e v a l e n t i n much o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e on development p o l i t i c s . The a u t h o r s o f a s t u d y of t h r e e d e c i s i o n -makers s a y : - 7 -L o o k i n g a t t h e t h r e e l e a d e r s i n g r o s s e s t f a s h i o n an educated guess would be t h a t Nkrumah,.as r u l e r o f t h e l e a s t d e v e l o p e d and l e a s t i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d p o l i t i c a l system, e n j o y e d t h e most l a t i t u d e i n t r a n s l a t i n g h i s p e r s o n a l l i k e s and d i s l i k e s , h i s h a t e s and f e a r s i n t o p o l i t i c a l deeds and symbols.°/ In t h i s paper t h e s t r e n g t h o f i d i o s y n c r a t i c f a c t o r s as opposed t o t h e s t r e n g t h o f o t h e r p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e s i s s t u d i e d b u t no com-p a r i s o n can be made between a d e v e l o p e d n a t i o n and an underdeve-l o p e d n a t i o n . H3: I n un d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s governmental f a c t o r s w i l l be r e l a t i v e l y u n i m p o r t a n t i n t h e p o l i c y - m a k i n g p r o c e s s . R a t i o n a l e : The r a t i o n a l e b e h i n d t h i s h y p o t h e s i s i s c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h a t b e h i n d t h e p r e v i o u s one. Such f a c t o r s as t h e underdevelopment o f t h e b u r e a u c r a c y o r t h e i n e f f e c t i v e f u n c t i o n i n g o f t h e l e g i s l a t u r e o f t e n c i t e d i n t h e development l i t e r a t u r e would seem t o m i t i g a t e a g a i n s t a p o t e n t governmental v a r i a b l e . A governmental monopoly o f t a l e n t however has l e d t o th e o p p o s i t e h y p o t h e s i s b e i n g made c o n c e r n i n g such c o u n t r i e s as P a k i s t a n . H4: I n an open p o l i t y s o c i e t a l v a r i a b l e s w i l l be more i m p o r t a n t t h a n i n a c l o s e d p o l i t y . R a t i o n a l e : Open p o l i t i e s a r e c h a r a c t e r i z e d by c h a n n e l s such as p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s , l e g i s l a t u r e s , and t h e p r e s s t h r o u g h w h i c h s o c i e t a l f o r c e s may e n t e r t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s . 8/ D a v i d J . F i n l a y , O l e R. H o l s t i , and R i c h a r d R. Fagen, Enemies i n P o l i t i c s . C h i c a g o , I l l i n o i s , Rand M c N a l l y & Company, 1967. p. 235. L i n k a g e 2 I s s u e A r e a t o P r o c e s s HI: A change from a t e r r i t o r i a l i s s u e t o an i s s u e o f s t a t u s w i l l i n c r e a s e t h e r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e o f s o c i e t a l f a c t o r s . R a t i o n a l e : A s t a t u s i s s u e i s one i n w h i c h b o t h i n t a n -g i b l e ends and means a r e i n v o l v e d . I t i s t h e r e f o r e l i k e l y t h a t a g r e a t e r number o f a c t o r s c o u l d be m o b i l i z e d t h a n would be t h e case where ends and means a r e more s p e c i f i c . S t a t u s i s s u e s a r e a l s o u s u a l l y i s s u e s w h i c h i n v o l v e e m o t i o n s r a t h e r t h a n s p e c i f i c t e c h n i c a l s k i l l s o r knowledge. L i n k a g e 3 P r o c e s s t o Output H i : When s o c i e t a l p r e s s u r e s a r e s t r o n g p o l i c y o u t p u t s w i l l t e n d t o be r i g i d . R a t i o n a l e : S o c i e t a l p r e s s u r e s a r e l e s s s u b j e c t t o change due t o changes i n t h e s i t u a t i o n a t hand, new i n f o r m a t i o n 9. c o n c e r n i n g t h e s i t u a t i o n o r new p o s i t i o n s t a k e n by o t h e r a c t o r s . ' H2: When s y s t e m i c p r e s s u r e s a r e i m p o r t a n t p o l i c y o u t -p u t s w i l l t e n d t o be f l e x i b l e . R a t i o n a l e : I t i s t h r o u g h t h i s v a r i a b l e t h a t changes i n t h e s i t u a t i o n a r e d i r e c t l y f e l t and i f t h a t v a r i a b l e i s s t r o n g changes i n t h e s i t u a t i o n w i l l be a c t e d upon i n a more d i r e c t manner th a n i f o t h e r v a r i a b l e s a r e s t r o n g . 9/ J . D a v i d S i n g e r , " N e g o t i a t i o n by P r o x y : A P r o p o s a l " J o u r n a l  o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n V o l . IX No. 4, pp. 53 8-541. A.T. S t e e l e The American P e o p l e and C h i n a , New York: M c G r a w - H i l l 19T6^ A l e x i s De T o c q u e v i l l e , Democracy i n A m e r i c a V o l . I , (New York.: Schocken Books, 19 61) . p. 249. - 9 -L i n k a g e 4 Outputs t o Consequences H i : Where v e r b a l o u t p u t s a r e r i g i d and o f a n e g a t i v e n a t u r e t h e r e i s l e s s l i k e l i h o o d o f s u c c e s s f u l n e g o t i a t i o n s and more l i k e l i h o o d o f a r e s o r t t o n e g a t i v e p h y s i c a l o u t p u t s t h a n i f v e r b a l o u t p u t s a r e f l e x i b l e . The H i s t o r i c a l S i t u a t i o n The c ases t o be c o n s i d e r e d were s e l e c t e d t h r o u g h t h e use o f t h r e e c r i t e r i a w h i c h i n o r d e r o f p r i o r i t y were (a) i n t e r e s t i n g c o n t r a s t s i n terms o f b o t h n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s and consequences of o u t p u t s ; (b) s i m i l a r i t i e s i n t h e s i t u a t i o n , t i m e p e r i o d , i s s u e a r e a , and r e g i o n a l environment; (c) a v a i l a -b i l i t y o f d a t a . The c ases chosen were t h e border, d i s p u t e s between I n d i a and C h i n a and between Burma and C h i n a . The t e r r i t o r i e s under d i s p u t e a r e shown i n maps 1 - 3 i n A ppendix C. The S i n o -I n d i a n b o r d e r i s d i v i d e d i n t o t h e Western S e c t o r , w i t h A k s a i C h i n and the Demchok a r e a under d i s p u t e , t h e M i d d l e S e c t o r , r u n n i n g t h r o u g h many d i s p u t e d p a s s e s such as S h i p k i Pass and B a r a h o t i , and t h e E a s t e r n S e c t o r , where most of N.E.F.A. i s under d i s p u t e . I n Burma, t h e b o r d e r i s a l s o d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e s e c t i o n s , t h a t marked by t h e McMahon l i n e , t h a t by t h e I r r a -waddy-Salween Watershed, and t h a t by t h e 1941 I s e l i n L i n e . B o t h N a t i o n a l i s t and Communist C h i n e s e governments had c i r -c u l a t e d maps w i t h t h e b o u n d a r i e s marked as i n d i c a t e d i n maps - 10 -1 - 3 i n Appendix C. B o t h regimes had i s s u e d p e r i o d i c s t a t e -ments t h a t such agreements as t h e 1842 t r e a t y between T i b e t and Kashmir and t h e 1914 S i m l a C o n v e n t i o n , w h i c h I n d i a c l a i m e d had d e l i m i t e d t h e boundary, and t h e S i m l a C o n v e n t i o n and t h e 1941 I s e l i n Commission, w h i c h Burma c l a i m e d had d e l i m i t e d t h e S i n o -Burmese boundary, were i l l e g a l . I n Burma n o t i c e was t a k e n o f t h e u n s t a b l e s i t u a t i o n , and t h e Burmese government asked f o r a s e t t l e m e n t o f t h e q u e s t i o n i n 1949, b u t r e c e i v e d no r e p l y . I n 1954, a j o i n t communique d e c l a r e d t h a t b o t h t h e Burmese and C h i n e s e governments r e c o g n i z e d t h e need f o r a . p e a c e f u l s e t t l e -ment o f t h e boundary problem.. There o c c u r r e d in.1955 and 1956 C h i n e s e i n c u r s i o n s p a s t t h e 19 41 l i n e i n t o t h e Wa S t a t e and p a s t t h e Irrawaddy-Salween Watershed i n t o t h e Hpimaw a r e a , r e s p e c -t i v e l y . There f o l l o w e d a s e r i e s o f exchanges t h a t r e s u l t e d i n t h e 19 56 c e a s e f i r e agreement and f i n a l l y i n t h e Sino-Burmese Boundary T r e a t y o f October 1, 19 60. A f t e r t h e i n i t i a l c i r c u l a t i o n o f maps, t h e S i n o - I n d i a n case p r o g r e s s e d t h r o u g h a.number.of i s o l a t e d b o r d e r c l a s h e s i n t h e E a s t e r n and M i d d l e S e c t o r s from June 1954. There was a m e e t i n g o f o f f i c i a l s i n 1958 t o d i s c u s s t h e c l a i m s t o B a r i h o t i b u t no progress.was made. The number o f b o r d e r i n c i d e n t s r o s e s h a r p l y i n 1959. I n A p r i l o f 1960 t h e r e was a m e e t i n g o f t h e two Prime M i n i s t e r s i n D e l h i , b u t a g a i n no s e t t l e m e n t was r e a c h e d . T e n s i o n i n c r e a s e d u n t i l t h e . O c t o b e r 1962 i n v a s i o n o f C h i n e s e f o r c e s i n t o N.E.F.A. P a r t - o f t h e p r oblem t h e n i s why - 11 -t h e s e two s i t u a t i o n s , i n many r e s p e c t s v e r y s i m i l a r , ( a l t h o u g h t h e S i n o - I n d i a n c a s e i n v o l v e d more t e r r i t o r y and t e r r i t o r y o f much more s t r a t e g i c v a l u e ) s h o u l d have r u n such d i f f e r e n t c o u r s e s . The Model. Rosenau's model i n c l u d e s t h r e e s e t s o f v a r i a b l e s (1) broad n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s such as s i z e ; (2) p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e s such as i d i o s y n c r a t i c o r s o c i e t a l f a c t o r s ; and (3) i s s u e a r e a . N a t i o n a l A t t r i b u t e s . The model s u g g e s t s t h a t n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s w i l l have consequences f o r t h e o r d e r i n g o f im p o r t a n c e o f t h e c l u s t e r s o f v a r i a b l e s t h a t a r e seen as f u n n e l l i n g i n t o t h e p o l i c y p r o c e s s and t h r o u g h t h i s mechanism f o r p o l i c y o u t -p u t s and consequences. I n a r e c e n t l y p u b l i s h e d a r t i c l e on th e f i n d i n g s o f t h e DON P r o j e c t Rummel s t a t e s t h a t " n a t i o n s v a r y i n t h e i r n a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a l o n g seven major dimen-s i o n s " and t h a t " t h e s e seven d i m e n s i o n s have l i t t l e c o r r e l a t i o n w i t h each o t h e r " . T h r e e o f t h e s e seven d i m e n s i o n s were c a l l e d s i z e , p o l i t i c a l o r i e n t a t i o n , and economic development. S i z e and economic development a r e measured h e r e by i n d i c a t o r s s i m i l a r t o Rummel's. He s t a t e s f u r t h e r t h a t 10/ A k s a i C h i n i s t h e o n l y c o n v e n i e n t y e a r - r o u n d r o u t e t o T i b e t . 11/ Rummell, R . J . , "Some E m p i r i c a l F i n d i n g s on N a t i o n s and t h e i r B e h a v i o r " , World P o l i t i c s , ( Jan. 1969), p. 229. - 12 -D i s s i m i l a r i t i e s i n s i z e and economic development ar e t h e most i m p o r t a n t d e t e r m i n a n t s of t h e v a r i -a t i o n i n b e h a v i o r o f n a t i o n s toward each o t h e r , e x p l a i n i n g about 85 p e r c e n t of t h e v a r i a n c e . The n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s i z e was i n t u i t i v e l y f e l t t o be r e l e v a n t t h r o u g h i t s h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n w i t h most i n d i c e s o f power such as w e a l t h , m i l i t a r y c a p a b i l i t y , and r e s o u r c e s , and t h e r e f o r e a l s o r e l a t e d t o t h e range o f p o s s i b l e p o l i c y outcomes a v a i l a b l e and t o t h e n a t i o n ' s . a b i l i t y t o change i t s environment. I n t h i s c a s e I have used p o p u l a t i o n s i z e as t h e i n d i c a t o r ^ A p o p u l a t i o n o f t h i r t y m i l l i o n o r . o v e r was d e f i n e d as l a r g e . U s i n g R u s s e t t ' s 1961 d a t a 15 n a t i o n s i n c l u d i n g I n d i a a r e c l a s s i -f i e d as l a r g e , w h i l e 118 i n c l u d i n g Burma a r e c l a s s i f i e d as s m a l l . The o t h e r two n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s , s t a t e o f t h e p o l i t y and s t a t e o f t h e economy ar e i n e f f e c t h e l d c o n s t a n t t h r o u g h o u t most o f t h e p e r i o d under i n v e s t i g a t i o n . The s t a t e o f t h e p o l i t y (open o r c l o s e d ) would be e x p e c t e d t o have a marked e f f e c t upon th e p o l i c y m a k i n g . p r o c e s s , d e t e r m i n i n g w h i c h i n t e r e s t s can be s y s t e m a t i c a l l y and l e g i t i m a t e l y b r o u g h t t o b e a r upon t h e 12/ I b i d . , p. 23 8. 13/ I b i d . , p. 240. 14/ R u s s e t t , Bruce M., e t a l . , W o r l d Handbook o f P o l i t i c a l and  S o c i a l I n d i c a t o r s , (New Haven! Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1964), p. 15. - 13 -process. / To be c l a s s i f i e d as open a p o l i c y must ex h i b i t th i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c Autonomous groups are free to enter p o l i t i c s and to oppose the government, save for extremist groups. Oppose means to b u i l d organizations for the purpose of con-tes t i n g e l e c t i o n s , and to c r i t i c i z e the government i n the mass media and i n a l e g i s l a t u r e . Extremist groups are those that oppose through violence rather than by the above means. During most of the period under consideration Burma and India would be c l a s s i f i e d as open. Before 1958 Burma had a multi-party system that included the A.F.P.F.L. , the Burmese Communist Party, and s e c t i o n a l parties such as the Arkanese National United Organization. At c e r t a i n i n t e r v a l s the Communist Party went underground, but t h i s seems to have been for t a c t i c a l reasons rather than the r e s u l t of any government r e s t r i c t i o n on other means of opposition. In 1956 a l l opposition parties joined, to form the National Unity Front and oppose the dominant A.F.P.F.L. From September 26, 1958, to March 1960, Burma under the Caretaker Government would be c l a s s i f i e d as closed because.although there was freedom to organize for the 1960 e l e c t i o n , c r i t i c i s m of the 15/ F a r r e l l , Barry R., "Foreign P o l i c i e s of Open and Closed P o l i t i c a l S ocieties", i n F a r r e l l , Barry R., (ed) Approaches  to Comparative and International P o l i t i c s , (Evanston: North-western University Press, 1966), pp. 167-208. Zbigniew Brzezinski and Samuel P. Huntington, P o l i t i c a l  Power USA/USSR, (New York: The Viking Press, 1966), passim. - 14 C a r e t a k e r Government was s e v e r e l y r e s t r i c t e d . I n d i a a l s o had a m u l t i - p a r t y system i n c l u d i n g two communist p a r t i e s and such r e g i o n a l p a r t i e s as t h e D r a v i d a M u n n e rtra Kazaghan, and t h e r i g h t i s t J a n Sangh.• The o n l y e v i d e n c e o f r e s t r i c t i o n o f o p p o s i t i o n came i n 19 61 w i t h t h e a r r e s t o f s e v e r a l S i k h l e a d e r s b u t t h e y seem t o have been c l o s e l y c o n n e c t e d w i t h t h e communal r i o t s a n d . c o u l d be c l a s s i f i e d as 17 / t h e l e a d e r s o f an e x t r e m i s t group. ' The t h i r d n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e , t h e s t a t e o f t h e economy, was c o n s i d e r e d r e l e v a n t s i n c e i t can be r e l a t e d d i r e c t l y t o t h e range o f p o s s i b l e p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s , and.to t h e p r o c e s s t h r o u g h i t s c o r r e l a t i o n w i t h t h e p r e s e n c e o f c e r t a i n t y p e s o f i n t e r e s t groups and t h e degree o f m o b i l i z a t i o n o f t h e p o p u l a -t i o n . Here an economy w i l l be c o n s i d e r e d d e v e l o p e d i f i t p r o -duces a per c a p i t a g r o s s n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t o f $600 o r more. U s i n g Banks' and T e x t o r ' s 19 61 d a t a 91, i n c l u d i n g I n d i a and 18/ Burma, o f 1 1 5 . n a t i o n s would be c o n s i d e r e d u n d e r d e v e l o p e d . ' 16/ S i l v e r s t e i n , J o s e f , "Burma", i n McT. K a h i n , George, (ed) Government and P o l i t i c s o f S o u t h e a s t A s i a , ( I t h a c a , New York: C o r n e l l U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1959), p. 121-132. 17/ Palmer, Norman D., " I n d i a " , i n McT. K a h i n , George (ed) Major Governments o f A s i a , ( I t h a c a , New Y o r k : C o r n e l l U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1963), p. 335 - 381. The New York Times Index, 1961. 18/ Bank, A r t h u s S., and T e x t o r , R o b e r t B., A C r o s s - P o l i t y  Survey, (Cambridge, Mass.: M.I.T. P r e s s , 19 6 3 ) , p. 63". - 15 -I s s u e A r e a Rosenau d e f i n e s i s s u e a r e a a s : ... (1) a c l u s t e r o f v a l u e s , t h e a l l o c a t i o n o r p o t e n t i a l a l l o c a t i o n o f w h i c h (2) l e a d s t h e a f f e c t e d o r p o t e n t i a l l y a f f e c t e d a c t o r s t o d i f f e r so g r e a t l y o v e r (a) t h e way i n w h i c h t h e v a l u e s s h o u l d be a l l o c a t e d o r (b) t h e h o r i z o n t a l l e v e l s a t w h i c h t h e a l l o c a t i o n s s h o u l d be a u t h o r i z e d t h a t (3) t h e y engage i n d i s t i n c t i v e b e h a v i o r d e s i g n e d t o m o b i l i z e s u p p o r t f o r t h e a t t a i n m e n t o f t h e i r p a r t i c u l a r v a l u e s . 1 9 / Four i s s u e a r e a s d i s t i n g u i s h e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e t a n g i b l e o r i n t a n g i b l e c h a r a c t e r o f t h e ends and means w i l l be used here (a) t h e non-human r e s o u r c e s i s s u e a r e a i s one where b o t h ends and means a r e t a n g i b l e ; (b) t h e human r e s o u r c e i s s u e a r e a i s one where t h e ends a r e i n t a n g i b l e w h i l e t h e means a r e t a n g i b l e ; (c) t h e t e r r i t o r i a l i s s u e a r e a i s one where t h e ends a r e t a n g i b l e w h i l e t h e means a r e i n t a n g i b l e ; (d) t h e s t a t u s i s s u e a r e a i s one where b o t h ends and means a r e i n t a n g i b l e . I s s u e i s d e f i n e d i n . t e r m s o f t h e p e r c e p t i o n s o f t h e p o l i c y makers. E v i d e n c e o f t h e i s s u e a r e a i n w h i c h t h e y a r e o p e r a t i n g i s found i n t h e i r d i s c u s s i o n s o f t h e d i s p u t e s . . A t e r r i t o r i a l -issue i s e v i d e n c e d by d i s c u s s i o n s r e v o l v i n g around e i t h e r c e r t a i n t r a c t s o f l a n d o r . a r o u n d t h e placement o f major l i n e s such as t h e McMahon L i n e . A s t a t u s i s s u e i s i n d i c a t e d by r e f e r e n c e s t o such t h i n g s as a b s o l u t e v a l u e s (eg. r i g h t , wrong, f a i r t r e a t m e n t ) , t o honour, r e s p e c t , and i n t e g r i t y , o r t o l e a d e r s h i p p o s i t i o n s . 19/ Rosenau, op. c i t . , p. 81. - 16 -The contention here i s that the issue area remained almost purely t e r r i t o r i a l i n the case,of Burma.while i n the case of India the issue area changed during the period of the Tibetan r e b e l l i o n i n March and A p r i l 1959. In India t up u n t i l 1959 there were frequent proposals for meetings of o f f i c i a l s to discuss s p e c i f i c t r a c t s of land, e s p e c i a l l y the passes. There was some agreement on the Middle sector passes i n the 1954 Trade Agreement and o f f i c i a l s met i n 1958 to discuss Barahoti. There i s no evidence of the matter being extended to any other issue areas except i n the ..few notes exchanged that mentioned the disputes 1 adverse e f f e c t s upon the Five P r i n c i p l e s of Peaceful. Co-rexistence. In 1959 Nehru repeatedly and s p e c i f i c a l l y made reference to his conviction that the s i t u a t i o n was no longer a . t e r r i t o r i a l dispute but an act of aggression on the part of China and a threat to the sover-eignty, i n t e g r i t y , and honour of India. But nothing can be a.more amazing f o l l y than for two great countries l i k e India and China to get into a major c o n f l i c t and war for the possession of a few mountainous peaks. But i t i s not a question of a mile or two. I t i s something more precious than a hundred or a thousand miles. People's passions have been brought to a high not because of a patch of t e r r i t o r y but because they f e e l that we have not received a f a i r treatment i n t h i s matter and have been treated rather casually by the Chinese Government and an attempt has been made, i f I may use the word, to b u l l y u s . 2 0 ' 20/ Statement to the Rajya Sabha, Sept. 10/59. - 17 -R e a c t i o n i n I n d i a t o t h e T i b e t a n s i t u a t i o n seems t o have been a c a t a l y s t i n t h i s change o f i s s u e a r e a when viewed e i t h e r i n t e r m s o f v a l u e s Tragedy has been and i s b e i n g e n a c t e d i n T i b e t , p a s s i o n s have been l e t l o o s e , charges made and language-used w h i c h cannot b u t worsen t h e s i t u a t i o n and our r e l a t i o n s w i t h o u r n o r t h e r n n e i g h b o u r . 2 1 / o r as a p h y s i c a l t h r e a t Today i t i s T i b e t . Tomorrow i t may be N e p a l , , and t h e day a f t e r i t may be us.22/ There were a s e r i e s o f d e m o n s t r a t i o n s a g a i n s t t h e C h i n e s e embassy and c o n s u l a t e s . Menon, i n an i n t e r v i e w w i t h B r e c h e r , has s a i d . . . t h i s u n n e c e s s a r y e m o t i o n a l r o m a n t i c i d e a o f assumed a f f i n i t y w i t h t h e D a l a i Lama has been p a r t o f our s i n s i n our r e l a t i o n s w i t h C h i n a . B r e c h e r , L a l l , and Menon a l l make men t i o n o f t h e f a c t t h a t Nehru f e l t t h e C h i n e s e were a t t e m p t i n g t o . d i s c r e d i t him, p e r s o n a l l y , and I n d i a , i n t h e eyes o f t h e A f r o - A s i a n l e a d e r s . There i s n o t as much i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e Burmese s i t u a -t i o n b u t what t h e r e i s would i n d i c a t e t h a t Burmese l e a d e r s viewed t h e d i s p u t e as p u r e l y t e r r i t o r i a l . . R e f e r r i n g t o t h e S i n o -Burmese Boundary Agreement, U Nu s a i d t h a t t h e n e g o t i a t i o n s "were i n r e a l i t y a c o n t i n u a t i o n o f t h e uncompleted n e g o t i a t i o n s between 21/ Statement t o t h e Lok Sabha, A p r i l 27/59. 22/ A member o f t h e o p p o s i t i o n quoted i n Tang, P e t e r S.H., Communist C h i n a Today. (Washington, D.C.: R e s e a r c h I n s t i t u t e on t h e S i n o - S o v i e t B l o c , 1961), p. 596. 23/ B r e c h e r , M i c h a e l , I n d i a and World P o l i t i c s : K r i s h n a Menon's  View o f t h e W o r l d , (London: O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , . 1968) , p. 45. - 18 -t h e B r i t i s h and t h e C h i n e s e . " ' I n c o n t r a s t t o t h e I n d i a n r e a c t i o n t o t h e T i b e t a n s i t u a t i o n t h e Burmese r e a c t i o n was d e s c r i b e d . i n t h e f o l l o w i n g way Burman p u b l i c r e a c t i o n was one of immediate shock/ soon t o be f o l l o w e d by i n d i f f e r e n c e t o a problem about w h i c h t h e Burma government c o u l d do n o t h i n g and a cause w h i c h i t would c e r t a i n l y n o t w i s h t o make i t s own. P a s s i v e i n t e r e s t i n t h e T i b e t a n a f f a i r perhaps i l l u s t r a t e d , as much as a n y t h i n g the e f f e c t s o f l o n g i s o l a t i o n by Burma from t h e main s t r e a m o f w o r l d e v e n t s and t h e consequent l a c k o f d e s i r e t o be p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h e m . " / The i s s u e a r e a s f o r t h e I n d i a n and Burmese cases a r e summarized i n T a b l e I . D e f i n i t i o n s o f t h e P r o c e s s V a r i a b l e s Most f a c t o r s one c o u l d c o n c e i v e o f as i n f l u e n c i n g f o r e i g n p o l i c y d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g c o u l d be f i t t e d i n t o one o f Rosenau's p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e c a t e g o r i e s i f t h e l o o s e d e f i n i t i o n s he s u p p l i e s a r e used. I n o r d e r t o f o c u s t h e r e s e a r c h , however, i t was tho u g h t e x p e d i e n t t o move i n t o t h e case s t u d y w i t h somewhat more c l e a r c u t b u t much na r r o w e r d e f i n i t i o n s o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s . Rosenau i d e n t i f i e s f i v e major c l u s t e r s o f v a r i a b l e s t h a t can be seen as f u n n e l l i n g i n t o t h e p o l i c y p r o c e s s . . Only f o u r , i d i o -s y n c r a t i c , s o c i e t a l , s y s t e m i c , and.governmental, w i l l be used h e r e . 24/ J o h n s t o n e , W i l l i a m C , Burma's F o r e i g n P o l i c y , (Cambridge, Mass.: H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 19 6 3 ) , p. 184. 25/ I b i d . , p. 185. T a b l e I I s s u e A r e a s Burma T a n g i b l e Yes - t h e r e t e n t i o n o f t h e d i s - Yes Ends puted t e r r i t o r y w i t h a d i s c u s s i o n couched i n terms e i t h e r o f s p e c i f i c t r a c t s o f l a n d such as t h e Namwan T r a c t o r o f s p e c i -f i c l i n e s such as t h e Irrawaddy-Salween Watershed. I n t a n g i b l e No Yes Ends T a n g i b l e No No Means I n t a n g i b l e Yes Yes . Means I n d i a t h e r e t e n t i o n o f t h e d i s p u t e d t e r r i t o r y w i t h a d i s c u s s i o n couched i n terms o f s p e c i f i c t r a c t s o f l a n d such as B a r a h o t i or i n terms o f s p e c i f i c l i n e s such as th e McMahon L i n e . t o d e a l e f f e c t i v e l y w i t h a n a t i o n w h i c h was a t t e m p t i n g t o d i s c r e d i t b o t h t h e l e a d e r and t h e n a t i o n i n t h e eyes o f the l e a d e r s and t h e p e o p l e o f t h e A f r o -A s i a n s t a t e s , t o d e a l e f f e c t i v e l y w i t h a n a t i o n t h a t had n o t , as e x p e c t e d , r e c i p r o c a t e d t h e g o o d w i l l I n d i a had shown i n such a c t i o n s as s p o n s o r i n g C h i n e s e U.N. membership, t o d e a l e f f e c t i v e l y w i t h a n a t i o n t h a t was " b u l l y i n g " , t h r e a t e n i n g t h e "honour" o f I n d i a and v i o l a t i n g a l l t h e " r i g h t " r u l e s o f c o n d u c t , (on t h e p a r t o f t h e p u b l i c ) a d e s i r e t o r e c t i f y t h e s i t u a t i o n i n T i b e t . - 20 -I n t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n t h e s e f o u r v a r i a b l e s a r e s p e c i f i c a l l y d e f i n e d . I n d i a and Burma a r e c l a s s i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e s e d e f i n i t i o n s i n t h e n e x t s e c t i o n . I d i o s y n c r a t i c V a r i a b l e s . I d i o s y n c r a t i c v a r i a b l e s a r e t h o s e t h a t would be e x p e c t e d t o v a r y w i t h t h e i n d i v i d u a l p o l i c y maker. Rosenau says t h e y : . . . i n c l u d e a l l t h o s e a s p e c t s o f a d e c i s i o n - m a k e r -h i s v a l u e s , t a l e n t s and p r i o r e x p e r i e n c e - t h a t d i s t i n g u i s h h i s f o r e i g n p o l i c y c h o i c e s o r b e h a v i o r from t h o s e o f e v e r y o t h e r d e c i s i o n - m a k e r . 2 6 / They have l o n g been an i m p o r t a n t s o u r c e o f d a t a f o r s t u d e n t s o f f o r e i g n p o l i c y d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g . The a u t h o r s o f Enemies i n P o l i t i c s say o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s : I n most i n s t a n c e s , r e a l i t y e l u d e s such s i m p l e e x p l a n a t i o n s [a p e r s o n a l i t y t h e o r y o f p o l i t i c s ] . What i s c r i t i c a l . t o a p p r e c i a t e i s t h a t few s i t u a t i o n s o f c o n f l i c t and i t s r e s o l u t i o n can be u n d e r s t o o d w i t h o u t r e f e r e n c e t o t h e p a r t i c u l a r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e l e a d e r s who g i v e shape and meaning (and o f t e n b i r t h ) t o t h e p o l i t i c a l e v e n t s , i s s u e and enemies w h i c h come t o embody the c o n f l i c t . 2 7 / Most i d i o s y n c r a t i c v a r i a b l e s found i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e can be d e s c r i b e d as e i t h e r b e i n g concerned w i t h r a t i o n a l f a c t o r s , 28/ i r r a t i o n a l p e r s o n a l f a c t o r s ' o r s o c i o l o g i c a l f a c t o r s , concerned 26/ Rosenau, op. c i t . , p. 43. 27/ F i n l a y e t a l . , op. c i t . , p. 233. 28/ I am u s i n g Verba's d e f i n i t i o n o f r a t i o n a l and i r r a t i o n a l f a c t o r s h e r e . "A n o n - l o g i c a l i n f l u e n c e i s any i n f l u e n c e a c t i n g upon th e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r o f w h i c h he i s unaware and w h i c h he would not c o n s i d e r , a l e g i t i m a t e i n f l u e n c e upon h i s d e c i s i o n i f he were aware o f i t " S i d n e y V e r b a , "Assump-t i o n s o f R a t i o n a l i t y and N o n - r a t i o n a l i t y i n Models o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l System", i n K n o r r and V e r b a , op. c i t , p. 94. - 21 -w i t h such t h i n g s as p a s t c a r e e r . S t u d i e s making use o f i r r a t i o n a l p e r s o n a l i t y v a r i a b l e s , 0 9 / an example o f wh i c h i s Lewis J . E d i n g e r ' s K u r t Schumacher, ' r e q u i r e g r e a t amounts o f i n f o r m a t i o n and s u p p l y v e r y tenuous l i n k a g e s t o o u t p u t s . Many s t u d i e s u s i n g s o c i a l background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s such as t h o s e i n H a r o l d D. L a s s w e l l and D a n i e l L e r n e r ' s World R e v o l u t i o n a r y E l i t e s : S t u d i e s i n C o e r c i v e I d e o l o g i c a l Movements 3°^ and Le w i s J . E d i n g e r and Donald D. S e a r i n g ' s " S o c i a l Background i n E l i t e A n a l y s i s : A Methodo-31/ l o g i c a l I n q u i r y " , / have found s o c i a l background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s n o t t o d i s t i n g u i s h c l e a r l y between groups o f e l i t e s and t h e y would be e x p e c t e d t o do so l e s s c l e a r l y between i n d i v i d u a l s . I have t h e r e f o r e c h o s e n . t o r e l y on what c o u l d be termed t h e r a t i o n a l f a c t o r s . Those t o be s p e c i f i c a l l y c o n s i d e r e d h e r e a r e t h e s u b s t a n t i v e c o n t e n t o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l ' s v a l u e system and h i s o r i e n t a t i o n toward t h i s v a l u e system ( i t s s t a b i l i t y and t h e e x t e n t o f i t s i n t e r n a l i z a t i o n ) . U s i n g t h e s e two c h a r a c -t e r i s t i c s , i d i o s y n c r a t i c v a r i a b l e s can be r e l a t e d t o p o l i c y o u t p u t i n b o t h a d i r e c t i o n a l manner and i n terms o f some c h a r a c t e r i s t i c such as r i g i d i t y . 29/ A Study i n P e r s o n a l i t y and P o l i t i c a l B e h a v i o r , ( S t a n f o r d , C a l . i S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 19 65). 30/ Cambridge, Mass.: M.I.T. P r e s s , 1965). 31/ A m erican P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e Review, June, 1967, 428-445. - 22 -The c o n c e p t o f t h e v a l u e system i s s i m i l a r t o t h a t o f S c o t t ' s w h i c h he d e s c r i b e s as ...the v a r i o u s g o a l s , p r e f e r e n c e s , and v a l u e s r e l a t i n g t o t h e e n t i t y f o r w h i c h he i s a d e c i s i o n -maker... These g o a l s , v a l u e s , and p r e f e r e n c e s w i l l be o r g a n i z e d i n terms o f r e l a t i v e p r i o r i t y on t h e b a s i s o f t h e i n t e n s i t y o f f e e l i n g a t t a c h e d t o each g o a l o r v a l u e . 3 2 / S i n c e t h e v a l u e system r e l a t e s " t o t h e e n t i t y f o r w h i c h he i s a d e c i s i o n - m a k e r " t h e r e would seem t o be a c l e a r e r r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e s e i d i o s y n c r a t i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and o u t p u t s t h a n would be t h e c a s e i f a s o c i a l background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c such as p r e v i o u s c a r e e r o r a p e r s o n a l i t y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c such as a u t h o r i t a r i a n i s m were used. An approach somewhat l i k e t h e one used h e r e a l t h o u g h on t h e l e v e l o f an e l i t e group r a t h e r t h a n t h e i n d i v i d u a l i s found i n N. L e i t e s ' T h e . O p e r a t i o n a l Code 33/ o f t h e P o l i t b u r o . ' The c o n c e p t o f s t a b i l i t y and l o c u s o f t h e g o a l o r t h e e x t e n t o f i n t e r n a l i z a t i o n a r e d e r i v e d from t h e 34/ work o f Riesman. ' A f o u r f o l d t a b l e i n c o r p o r a t e s t h e s e two 32/ S c o t t , Andrew M., The F u n c t i o n i n g o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l  System, (New York: The M a c m i l l a n Company, 1967), p. 5~1. 33/ (New Y o r k : McGraw H i l l , 1951). 34/ Riesman,•David and G l a z i e r , Nathan, Faces i n t h e Crowd, (New Haven: Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1952), and Riesman, D a v i d , Denny, R e u e l , and G l a z i e r , Nathan, The L o n e l y Crowd: A  Study o f t h e Changing. American Character"^ (New Haven: Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1950). - 23 -c o n c e p t s : T a b l e I I Goal Locus and S t a b i l i t y GOAL STABILITY LOCUS OF GOAL I n f l e x i b l e F l u c t u a t i n g I n t e r n a l i z e d I n n e r -d i r e c t e d C u l t u r a l l y T r a d i t i o n - O t h e r -D e r i v e d d i r e c t e d d i r e c t e d The m a t r i x d e s c r i b e s Riesman's t h r e e t y p e s and a f o u r t h t h a t he does n o t c o n s i d e r . Riesman d e s c r i b e s what he f e e l s t o be th e most common t y p e s , t h e i n n e r - d i r e c t e d and o t h e r - d i r e c t e d p e r s o n a l i t i e s . The norms o f t h e i n n e r - d i r e c t e d p e r s o n a l i t y a r e i n t e r n a l i z e d and he shows an i n f l e x i b l e d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o a c h i e v e any o f t h e p o s s i b l e g o a l s w h i c h an expanding s o c i e t y might s u g g e s t . He has an i n t e n s e c o n v i c t i o n about t h e p r o -p r i e t y o f what he wants t o do and can a f f o r d - p s y c h o l o g i c a l l y t o i g n o r e t h e w i s h e s o f peer groups. The l o c u s o f t h e g o a l s o f t h e o t h e r - d i r e c t e d p e r s o n a l i t y i s i n t h e c u l t u r a l system. The a c t o r obeys a f l u c t u a t i n g s e r i e s o f s h o r t - r u n g o a l s p i c k e d up by " r a d a r " . He b e l i e v e s i t i s a p p r o p r i a t e t o be a b l e c o n t i n u a l l y t o s h i f t a s p i r a t i o n s and g o a l s so t h a t i n d i v i d u a l norms w i l l be b r o u g h t 35/ i n t o a c c o r d w i t h t h e c h a n g i n g demands o f r e l e v a n t groups. 35/ Riesman, David.and G l a z i e r , Nathan, Faces, i n t h e Crowd, (New Haven: Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1952), pp. 6-12. - 24 -The measure o f t h e s t a b i l i t y and l o c u s o f g o a l s w i l l n o t be t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h t h e o b s e r v e r f i n d s t h e i n d i v i d u a l ' s a c t i o n s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h a r e l a t i v e l y i n f l e x i b l e v a l u e system b u t t h e e x t e n t t o which t h e a c t o r h i m s e l f measures h i s c o n d u c t a g a i n s t some s t a n d a r d . S o c i e t a l V a r i a b l e s : T h e s e - v a r i a b l e s c o u l d range from t h e v e r y b r o a d c o n c e p t s used i n a n a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r approach t o t h e more s p e c i f i c c o n c e p t s used i n t h e s t u d i e s o f i n t e r e s t group i n f l u e n c e . Rosenau d e s c r i b e s them as c o n s i s t i n g " . . . o f t h o s e nongovernmental a s p e c t s o f a 36/ s o c i e t y w h i c h i n f l u e n c e i t s b e h a v i o r . " There have been a number o f s t u d i e s i n v e s t i g a t i n g t h e c h a n n e l s f o r s o c i e t a l f o r c e s i n t o 37 / t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . ' These 36/ Rosenau, op. c i t . , p. 43. 37/ Cohen, B e r n a r d C , "Mass Communication and F o r e i g n P o l i c y " , i n James N. Rosenau ( e d . ) , Domestic Sources o f F o r e i g n  P o l i c y , (New York: The F r e e P r e s s , 1967). p. 195. J e w e l l , op. c i t . Warren E. M i l l e r and Donald E. S t o k e s , " C o n s t i t u e n c y I n f l u -ence i n C o n g r e s s " , A.P.S.R. (57) March 1963. pp. 45-57. James R e s t o n , The A r t i l l e r y o f t h e P r e s s , (New York: H a r p e r , 1967). A.T. S t e e l e , The American P e o p l e and C h i n a , (New York: M c G r a w - H i l l 1966). " ~ - 25 -s t u d i e s a r e o f l i m i t e d u s e , however, i n t h e s t u d y o f o t h e r , and 38 / e s p e c i a l l y u n d e r d e v e l o p e d , c o u n t r i e s . ' The s p e c i f i c s o c i e t a l v a r i a b l e t o be c o n s i d e r e d h e r e w i l l be t h e freedom o f t h e p r e s s . T h i s i d e a i s t o some e x t e n t c o v e r e d i n t h e n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s t a t e o f t h e p o l i t y b u t h e r e t h e p r e s s i s seen as a mechanism t h r o u g h w h i c h o t h e r s o c i e t a l p r e s s u r e s may a c t o r be a c t e d upon. The l i t e r a t u r e c o n t a i n s a t . l e a s t t h r e e t y p e s o f mechanisms t h r o u g h w h i c h t h e p r e s s becomes an i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r . I n some c a s e s t h e p r e s s i t s e l f becomes i n e f f e c t an o p p o s i t i o n p a r t y . S i l v e r s t e i n t h i n k s t h i s was t h e c a s e i n Burma from 1950-1956 when t h e p o l i t i c a l 39/ p a r t i e s were i n an embryonic s t a g e . ' The p r e s s may a l s o s e r v e e i t h e r as a r e f l e c t i o n o r a moulder o f a g e n e r a l i z e d p u b l i c o p i n i o n . The l a t t e r f u n c t i o n would seem t o be f a r l e s s l i k e l y i n n a t i o n s such as I n d i a and Burma where newspaper c i r c u l a t i o n i s v e r y low. I n t h i s r o l e o f . e i t h e r r e f l e c t o r o r moulder o f p u b l i c o p i n i o n t h e p r e s s may a l s o s e r v e as a l i n k between d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s and t h e p u b l i c . I t c o u l d become t h e c h a n n e l t h r o u g h w h i c h more g e n e r a l s o c i e t a l f a c t o r s e n t e r t h e d e c i s i o n -40/ making p r o c e s s . ' 38/ W i l l i a m ' E . P o r t e r , "Mass communications from t h e ground-up p a r t way: a r e v i e w " , J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n , V o l . X, No. 1, pp. 117-121. 39/ S i l v e r s t e i n , op. c i t . , p. 131. 40/ Cohen, op. c i t . , p. 195. - 26 -The a t t i t u d e o f t h e p r e s s toward t h e n a t i o n w i t h w h i c h t h e i n t e r a c t i o n i s t a k i n g p l a c e i s t h e a t t r i b u t e o f t h e p r e s s t h a t w i l l be l o o k e d a t . The a t t i t u d e o f t h e p r e s s w i l l be c l a s s i f i e d as e i t h e r h o s t i l e o r n o t h o s t i l e . The p r e s s i n a n a t i o n . w o u l d be h o s t i l e t o w a r d . t h e n a t i o n w i t h w h i c h t h e i n t e r a c t i o n i s t a k i n g . p l a c e i f papers a c c o u n t i n g f o r h a l f o r more o f t h e c i r c u l a t i o n c o n t a i n e d e d i t o r i a l s c o n c e r n i n g t h e n a t i o n i n q u e s t i o n h a l f o r more o f w h i c h f e a t u r e d c a l l s f o r s t r o n g e r n e g a t i v e p o l i c i e s t oward.the n a t i o n , d e n u n c i a t i o n s of e x i s t i n g p o l i c i e s as t o o ' s o f t ' o r n e g a t i v e a l l e g a t i o n s about the p o l i c i e s , l e a d e r s , o r p e o p l e o f t h e n a t i o n . Governmental: V a r i a b l e s : "Governmental v a r i a b l e s r e f e r t o t h o s e a s p e c t s o f a government's . s t r u c t u r e t h a t l i m i t o r enhance t h e f o r e i g n p o l i c y 41/ c h o i c e s made by d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s " . ' F o r e i g n p o l i c y l i t e r a t u r e i s r e p l e t e w i t h hypotheses c o n c e r n i n g t h e e f f e c t o f d i f f e r e n t g overnmental s t r u c t u r e s upon p o l i c y making. F a r r e l l ' s book c o n t a i n s two a r t i c l e s upon t h e e f f e c t o f d e m o c r a t i c and t o t a l i -42/ t a r i a n g o v e r n m e n t a l . s t r u c t u r e s upon p o l i c y making. ' The i d e o l o g i c a l p e n e t r a t i o n o f t h e S o v i e t b u r e a u c r a c y i s c i t e d as 41/ Rosenau/ op. c i t , p. 43. 42/ N o r t o n E. Long, "Open and C l o s e d Systems" i n F a r r e l l , op. c i t . , pp. 155-166. R. B a r r y F a r r e l l , " F o r e i g n P o l i c i e s of. Open and C l o s e d P o l i t i c a l S o c i e t i e s " i n F a r r e l l , op.: c i t . , pp. 167-208. - 27 -making t h e b u r e a u c r a c y i n e f f e c t i v e i n p r e s e n t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s t h a t d i f f e r from t h o s e a l r e a d y c o n s i d e r e d by t h e . p o l i t i c a l d e c i s i o n makers. The r e l a t i v e . i n d e p e n d e n c e o f . t h e American b u r e a u c r a c y i s s a i d t o r e s u l t i n i t s p l a y i n g . t h e r o l e o f a n o t h e r i n t e r e s t group whose vi e w s a r e t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t i n 43/ t h e p o l i c y making p r o c e s s . ' The b u r e a u c r a c y was chosen as t h e r e l e v a n t governmental s t r u c t u r e h e r e s i n c e t h e way i n w h i c h i t p l a y s i t s r o l e as an i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r i n g . a n d p o l i c y g e n e r a t i n g o r g a n i z a t i o n c l e a r l y can l i m i t o r enhance t h e . f o r e i g n p o l i c y c h o i c e s made by d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s and s i n c e t h e s t a t e o f d e v e l o p -ment o f t h e b u r e a u c r a c y i s o f t e n seen as t h e f a c t o r b e h i n d 44/ d i f f e r e n t s t y l e s o f d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g . ' Here t h e s i z e o f t h e b u r e a u c r a c y measured by b u r e a u c r a t i c . p e r s o n n e l as a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e w o r k i n g age p o p u l a t i o n i s t a k e n as t h e v a r i a b l e . A b u r e a u c r a c y t h a t - e m p l o y s s i x . p e r c e n t o r more o f t h e w o r k i n g age p o p u l a t i o n i s c o n s i d e r e d l a r g e . S y s t e m i c V a r i a b l e s a n d - P o l i c y Outcomes: The p o l i c y making p r o c e s s can b e . i n f l u e n c e d by i n t e r n a l v a r i a b l e s t h a t a r e p r o p e r t i e s o f t h e n a t i o n a l a c t o r , t h e d e c i s i o n makers, t h e s o c i e t y o r t h e governmental s t r u c t u r e . P o l i c y may a l s o be a f f e c t e d by v a r i a b l e s e x t e r n a l t o t h e . s t a t e and t h e s e a r e here c a l l e d s y s t e m i c v a r i a b l e s . 43/ B r z e z i n s k i , op. c i t . , p a s s i m . 44/ Joseph L a Palombara ( e d . ) , B u r e a u c r a c y and P o l i t i c a l Development-, P r i n c e t o n , .New J e r s e y , P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1963. - 28 -Policy i s the rela t i o n s h i p of a governmental u n i t to i t s environment. Policy outcomes are concrete manifestations of t h i s p o l i c y . These two variables are treated together since they can be viewed as c o n s t i t u t i n g flows i n opposite directions through linkages connecting sub-system to system. Systemic variables are inputs to the sub-system from the system and p o l i c y outcomes are inputs from the sub-system to the system. They involve the same problems of d e f i n i t i o n , data-gathering and coding. At the broadest l e v e l both situations take place i n a loose bi-polar system. Although many of the elements of the s i t u a t i o n , such as the existence of India and Burma as non-aligned states, may have been determined by t h i s system i t s use as the relevant system did not seem as f r u i t f u l as the use of a more limited system containing only the actors i n the boundary disputes. Interactions within these systems would be more s p e c i f i c and would probably vary more i n the short time period under consideration. This variance would make the task of r e l a t i n g the variable to outputs an easier one. The relevant systems w i l l be the dyads China and India and Burma and China and the i n t e r -actions, those concerning the boundary disputes. Because of the dearth of work on the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of 45/ outputs '. two types of problems, although-present i n looking at 45/ Eulau, Heinz & Eyestone, Robert, "Policy Maps of C i t y Councils and Policy Outcomes: A Developmental Analysis", American  P o l i t i c a l Science Review, (March, 1968), pp. 124-143. Rummell, op. c i t . Scott, op. c i t . - 29 -any variables i n the previous stages, become es p e c i a l l y relevant here. Singer designates these problems as f a c t - f i n d i n g problems 46/ and data-making problems. ' At the f a c t - f i n d i n g l e v e l Burma represents close to the worst type of case. A l l information on inputs and outputs was gathered.from secondary descriptive sources. India represents a much more favourable type of s i t u -ation with the Government White Papers ostensibly including a l l notes and l e t t e r s exchanged between Indian and China concerning the s i t u a t i o n , published by a government with a good reputation regarding such things, showing no i r r e g u l a r i t i e s when compared with such other sources of documents as Ambekar or the documents from Peking nor any i n t e r n a l i r r e g u l a r i t i e s . Sources such as The New York Times Index and Facts on F i l e were of l i t t l e use i n looking at these very s p e c i f i c , i n t e r a c t i o n s taking place p r i -marily within the regional system. Regional sources l i k e Asian  Recorder reported events at a l e v e l similar to that of the descriptive studies used for the Burmese case but i n no way approached the completeness.of the Indian White Papers. These problems overlap those of.the data-making nature. When using facts such as those c o l l e c t e d for the paper i n a comparative way the problem of what comprises a.unit emerges.. Most of the units i n the Burmese case seem to be of a larger magnitude than those i n the Indian case. Comparable data i n the secondary 46/ Singer, J. David, "Data-making i n International Relations", Behavioral Science, (Jan. 1965), p. 69. - 3 0 -s o u r c e s on the I n d i a n c a s e c o n s i s t s o f l e t t e r s exchanged between heads of s t a t e and some of what seem t o be t h e more i m p o r t a n t n o t e s a r e r e p o r t e d w h i l e a l m o s t none o f the p r o t e s t n o t e s were mentioned. I n an attempt t o make the d a t a somewhat more compar-a b l e l e t t e r s o f p r o t e s t w h i c h accounted f o r one hundred and e i g h t e e n o f t h e I n d i a n o u t p u t s were e x c l u d e d from the c o m p a r t i v e p a r t o f t h e a n a l y s i s . F o r the Burmese d a t a , I had a l s o t o assume t h a t i n c o m p l e t e n e s s d i d n o t b i a s t h e sample i n e i t h e r a p o s i t i v e o r a n e g a t i v e d i r e c t i o n . I n v i e w o f the above st a t e m e n t s and t h o s e s u c h as t h e f o l l o w i n g . The New York Times was used i n i t i a l l y and compared t o t h e o t h e r s o u r c e s . L i t t l e i n f o r m a t i o n n o t r e c o r d e d e l s e w h e r e was found i n the A s i a n R e c o r d e r , A s i a n Almanac, K e e s i n g ' s and F a c t s On F i l e were u t i l i z e d f o r most o f the d a t a c o l l e c t i o n . W i t h i n t h e s e s o u r c e s t h e coverage o f s t a t e s and e v e n t s was v e r y uneven. The o p p o s i t e was t r u e f o r the A s i a n Almanac. B o t h o f these u n d e r r e p o r t e d A u s t r a l i a . . . F o r some s t a t e s and t y p e s o f o u t p u t s t h e d a t a were more a v a i l a b l e than o t h e r s . 47/ F i v e s o u r c e s — The New York Times Index, New  I n t e r n a t i O n a l Yearbook,' K e e s i n g ' s Contemporary  A r c h i v e s , F a c t s On F i l e , and the B r i t a n n i c a  Book o f the Year — were combed f o r d a t a w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e s e measures. K e e s i n g ' s Contempor- a r y A r c h i v e s was found l e a s t p r o d u c t i v e o f d a t a / and, t h e r e f o r e , was used o n l y i n the v e r y b e g i n -n i n g o f t h e d a t a c o l l e c t i o n . 4 8 / Some a n a l y s i s o f t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e s e w i d e l y used s o u r c e s 49/ would be v e r y h e l p f u l . ' 47/ M o u l , B i l l , s e minar p a p e r , p. 8. 48/ Rummel, Rudolph J . , "Dimensions o f C o n f l i c t B e h a v i o r W i t h i n and Between N a t i o n s " , G e n e r a l Systems; Yearbook of t h e  S o c i e t y f o r G e n e r a l Systems R e s e a r c h , (1963), p. 6. 49/ N a r o l l , R a o u l , Data Q u a l i t y - C o n t r o l — A New R e s e a r c h T e c h n i q u e , (New York: The F r e e P r e s s o f G l e n c o e , 1962) pp. 1.-3:6. - 31 -P o l i c y outcomes f o r I n d i a and Burma and i n p u t s from C h i n a have s i m p l y been coded p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e . Outcomes coded n e g a t i v e l y i n c l u d e (1) a c c u s a t i o n s ; (2) p r o t e s t s ; (3) p r e s e n t a -t i o n o f a c l a i m ; (4) w a r n i n g s o r t h r e a t s ; (5) r e j e c t i o n s o f p r o p o s a l s f o r e a s i n g o f t e n s i o n ; (6) r e j e c t i o n s o f p r o p o s a l s f o r s e t t l e m e n t o f t h e d i s p u t e ; (7) r e j e c t i o n s o f a l l e g a t i o n s o r p r o t e s t s ; (8) r e j e c t i o n s o f c l a i m s . Those coded p o s i t i v e l y i n c l u d e (1) the making o f a p r o p o s a l f o r the r e d u c t i o n o f t e n s i o n ; (2) t h e making o f a p r o p o s a l f o r s e t t l e m e n t of t h e d i s p u t e s ; (3) t h e a c c e p t a n c e o f c l a i m s ; (4) the o f f e r i n g o f a c o n c e s s i o n ; (5) the a c c e p t a n c e o f p r o p o s a l s f o r r e d u c t i o n o f t e n s i o n ; (6) the a c c e p t a n c e o f p r o p o s a l s f o r s e t t l e m e n t o f t h e d i s p u t e ; (7) any outcome t h a t r e p r e s e n t s a " s o f t e n i n g " o f t h e p r e v i o u s s t a n d . The Four P r o c e s s V a r i a b l e s and P o l i c y Outcomes i n Burma and I n d i a  I d i o s y n c r a t i c V a r i a b l e s : S i n c e b o t h U Nu and Nehru, as Prime M i n i s t e r s , t o o k s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t i n f o r e i g n p o l i c y , Nehru a c t i n g as h i s own f o r e i g n m i n i s t e r and U Nu u s u a l l y overshadowing t h e many d i f f e r e n t f o r e i g n m i n i s t e r s t h a t h e l d o f f i c e i n Burma, t h e i r s w i l l be the o n l y i d i o s y n c r a t i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s examined. There was some problem w i t h d a t a i n measuring t h i s v a r i a b l e . Speeches r e p o r t e d i n newspapers, r e c o r d s o f p a r l i a m e n t a r y d e b a t e s , and p u b l i s h e d c o l l e c t i o n s o f speeches were the most r e a d i l y . a v a i l a b l e s o u r c e s . They were a l s o t h e l e a s t s a t i s f a c t o r y , as s t a t e m e n t s t a k e n as a r e f l e c t i o n o f i d i o s y n c r a t i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s had p r o b a b l y a l r e a d y been impinged upon by o t h e r p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e s . T h i s - 32 -was e s p e c i a l l y the case w i t h t h e i n f o r m a t i o n on U Nu, a l m o s t a l l . o f which was i n t h e f o rm o f speeches where t h e r e seemed t o be a c o n f o u n d i n g o f h i s v a l u e system and s y s t e m i c i n f l u e n c e s . The predominance o f Burmese independence as an e lement i n h i s v a l u e system was c e r t a i n l y h i g h l i g h t e d by t h e p r e c a r i o u s s i t u a t i o n o f Burma t h a t p r o b a b l y would have f o r c e d any l e a d e r t o be a t l e a s t p r i m a r i l y concerned w i t h t h e same v a l u e s . A b e t t e r s o u r c e o f d a t a would seem t o be the a c t o r s ' r e f l e c t i o n s on i s s u e s f u r t h e r removed from t h e p o l i c y - m a k i n g p r o c e s s i n e i t h e r t i m e or i s s u e a r e a . T h i s t y p e was f o u n d i n the w r i t i n g s of, t h e a c t o r s , e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e t h a t were n o t d e s i g n e d f o r s p e c i f i c a u d i e n c e s o r i n r e l a t i o n t o s p e c i f i c i s s u e s . Examples o f t h i s t y p e o f w r i t i n g would be U Nu's p l a y s and Nehru's L e t t e r s from J a i l . These d a t a , however, p r e s e n t the problem o f l i n k a g e w i t h t h e i s s u e a t hand because t h e y a r e removed from the p r o c e s s under c o n s i d e r a t i o n . D a t a such as d i a r i e s d u r i n g the r e l e v a n t p e r i o d c o u l d t o some degree a v o i d b o t h the problem o f the impingement of o t h e r f a c t o r s and l i n k a g e t o the s p e c i f i c problem but would n o t b e . a v a i l a b l e f o r any v e r y r e c e n t s i t u a t i o n s . I have, i n t h i s c a s e , r e l i e d on the f i r s t two t y p e s of s o u r c e s w i t h t h e two t y p e s of problems i n mind. The f o l l o w i n g d e l i n e a t i o n o f t h e i d i o s y n c r a t i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f U Nu and Nehru i s i n no way s y s t e m a t i c . . The use o f c o n t e n t a n a l y s i s t o f i n d s t a t e m e n t s where the a c t o r s performance i s j u s t i f i e d i n terms o f a v a l u e system would have g i v e n a much more r e l i a b l e p i c t u r e . - 33 -I n . t h e case of U Nu, one v a l u e , t h a t o f t h e a t t a i n m e n t and l a t e r t h e maintenance of independence seems t o have been paramount. T h i s v a l u e o c c u r s t h r o u g h o u t b o t h h i s own d i s c u s s i o n s and the d i s c u s s i o n s o f o t h e r s c o n c e r n i n g him. I n an i n t r o d u c t i o n t o U Nu's p l a y , The P e o p l e Win .Through, Hunter says " E v e r y t h i n g e x c e p t t h i s o b j e c t i v e ( h i s c o u n t r y ' s s e c u r i t y and s o v e r e i g n t y ) , 50/ i s s u b o r d i n a t e i n him." The p l a y i t s e l f l o o k s a t a Communist i n s u r r e c t i o n i n Burma w i t h t h e major theme couched i n terms o f t h e t h r e a t t o t h e s e c u r i t y o f t h e n a t i o n and t o no o t h e r v a l u e s . T h i s g o a l seems t o have e c l i p s e d e s p e c i a l l y any v a l u e s r e l a t i n g t o t h e e x t e r n a l w o r l d . Many p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s of g r e a t i m p o r t a r e e x p l a i n e d n o t on the b a s i s o f t h e i r i n t r i n s i c m e r i t nor on the b a s i s o f - t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p t o any h i g h e r v a l u e save t h a t o f Burmese s e c u r i t y . The d e c i s i o n t o f o l l o w a n e u t r a l i s t 51/ f o r e i g n p o l i c y has been e x p l a i n e d on these grounds. ' I n e x p l a i n i n g t h e Burmese p o s i t i o n on t h e Korean s i t u a t i o n U Nu s a i d A s m a l l weak n a t i o n l i k e o u r s , howsoever we " s t r e n g t h e n our d e f e n s e s , can never s u c c e s s f u l l y d e f e n d o u r s e l v e s a l o n e . . . a s , soon as a g g r e s s i o n s t a r t e d i n South K o r e a , t h e U.N. went t o i t s a s s i -s t a n c e . T h i s has s e t up a n o b l e p r e c e d e n t . Hence-f o r t h , i f a g g r e s s i o n o c c u r s e l s e w h e r e t h e r e t o o t h e U.N. must s t e p i n . 52/ 50/ Edward Hunter i n h i s i n t r o d u c t i o n t o U Nu,: The P e o p l e Win  Through, (New York: T a p l i n g e r P u b l i s h i n g Company, 1957), p. 2. 51/ B u t w e l l , R i c h a r d , U Nu of: Burma, ( S t a n f o r d , C a l i f o r n i a : S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 63), pp. 172-174. 52/ H u n t e r , op. c i t . , p. 45. - 34 -R e c o g n i t i o n of C h i n a i n 194 9 was a l s o r a t i o n a l i z e d p u r e l y i n terms o f Burmese i n t e r e s t s : Be f r i e n d l y w i t h a l l f o r e i g n c o u n t r i e s . Our t i n y n a t i o n c annot have the e f f r o n t e r y t o q u a r r e l w i t h any power.53/ In h i s book, Burma Under t h e Japanese, U Nu e x p l a i n s t h a t h i s major r e a s o n f o r p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n the Ba Maw a d m i n i s t r a t i o n was t o a v o i d a r i f t and the consequent weakening of t h e n a t i o n a l -54/ i s t f o r c e s . • A t t h i s l e v e l t h e n h i s v a l u e system and p r i o r i t y o r d e r i n g s a r e c l e a r l y d e f i n e d . T h i s i s n o t t h e case i n o t h e r a r e a s . He i s r e p o r t e d t o have g r e a t l y - v a l u e d t h e f o r c e o f 55/ r e l i g i o n , any r e l i g i o n , ' and e s p e c i a l l y t h a t o f Buddhism. He s p e n t a t l e a s t f o u r hours a day i n r e l i g i o u s o b s e r v a n c e s . H i s i n c r e a s i n g a t t e n t i o n t o Buddhism seems t o have i n f l u e n c e d h i s p o l i t i c a l a c t i o n s and i d e o l o g y . He i s r e p o r t e d t o have f e l t t h a t one o f t h e most i m p o r t a n t r e a s o n s f o r h i s v i s i t t o t h e U n i t e d 56/ S t a t e s i n 1955 was t h e p r o p a g a t i o n o f Buddhism. ' One o f t h e r e a s o n s f o r h i s r e j e c t i o n o f Marxism was t h a t the d e t e r m i n i s t i c i d e o l o g y was i n c o n t r a d i c t i o n t o t h e B u d d h i s t d o c t r i n e o f t h e c r e a t i o n o f karma (good o r b a d ) . 53/ J o h n s t o n e , op. c i t . , p . 58. 54/ U Nu, Burma Under t h e Japanese, (London: M a c m i l l a n , 1954), p. 93. 55/ T h i s was a p p a r e n t d u r i n g t h e r e l i g i o u s s c h o o l c r i s i s i n Burma as r e p o r t e d i n B u t w e l l , op. c i t . , p. 66. 56/ Loc. c i t . - 35 -In a s p o t t y and s u p e r f i c i a l f a s h i o n he has e x p r e s s e d h i s v i e w s on t h e p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s . The i d e a o f t h e i n a d v i s a b i l i t y o f a m a j o r i t y f o r c i n g i t s v i e w s on a m i n o r i t y was a r e c u r r e n t theme t h r o u g h o u t t h e . r e l i g i o u s s c h o o l c r i s i s . I n d i s c u s s i n g t h i s a s p e c t o f U Nu's v a l u e system Nehru has s a i d Nu i s n o t a s p e c u l a t i v e t h i n k e r . He tends t o a c c e p t an e x i s t a n t b e l i e f system l i k e Buddhism and a c t w i t h i n i t . However, Buddhism p e r m i t s i n t e l l e c t u a l e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n w i t h i n i t s p a r t i -c u l a r framework and t h i s Nu engages i n . We have t a l k e d about democracy's p r o s p e c t s i n t h i s " o r t h a t c o u n t r y but n o t about t h e i d e a o f democracy.57/ A t one l e v e l , as i n d i c a t e d i n Nehru's s t a t e m e n t , U Nu t h r o u g h h i s a d o p t i o n of B u d d h i s t p h i l o s o p h y p o s s e s s e s a s t a b l e s e t o f v a l u e s t h a t a r e c u l t u r a l l y d e r i v e d and c o u l d t h e r e f o r e be c l a s s i f i e d as a t r a d i t i o n - o r i e n t e d p e r s o n a l i t y . These v a l u e s a r e , however, a t a v e r y h i g h l e v e l of a b s t r a c t i o n . A t a more s p e c i f i c l e v e l t h e r e i s some e v i d e n c e t h a t h i s v a l u e s and t h e i r i m p l e m e n t a t i o n a r e t o a l a r g e e x t e n t dependent upon h i s peer groups, and n o t t h e l a r g e r B u d d h i s t c u l t u r e . D u r i n g t h e Japanese o c c u p a t i o n , as d e s c r i b e d i n h i s book, h i s a t t i t u d e toward the Japanese was t o a l a r g e degree dependent upon t h e v i e w s o f • Ba Swe, a f e l l o w p o l i t i c a l p r i s o n e r . H i s v e r y d e c i s i o n s t o seek o f f i c e i n 1942, 1947, and 1957 a r e e x p l a i n e d i n terms o f t h e wi s h e s o f c o l l e a g u e s : 57/ I b i d . , p . 80. - 3 6 -I had t o comply w i t h t h e r e q u e s t t o s t a n d f o r e l e c t i o n from M e r q u i C o n s t i t u e n c y but I i n s i s t e d on one c o n d i t i o n , t o p e r m i t me t o l e a v e o f f i c e when t h e C o n s t i t u e n t Assembly completed i t s f u n c t i o n . (1947).58/ A t l e a s t one o b s e r v e r d e s c r i b e s him as b e i n g g r e a t l y dependent upon group a p p r o v a l . . . t h i s o v e r - s e n s i t i v i t y has been a problem. Nu's d i f f i c u l t i e s w i t h Kyaw N y e i n from 1956-1958 b e f o r e t h e two s p l i t p o l i t i c a l l y , were p a r t l y o c c a s i o n e d by h i s f e e l i n g t h a t he was n o t g e t t i n g t h e r e c o g n i t i o n he d e s e r v e d . In h i s 195 6 l e t t e r t o Kyaw N y e i n , he wrote t h a t he, as w e l l as Aung San, had p l a y e d "an i m p o r t a n t p a r t i n the i n d e -pendence s t r u g g l e , I have a d e s i r e t h a t t h e p e o p l e s h o u l d know about t h i s . " Nu was a l s o annoyed when B r i t i s h Prime M i n i s t e r Anthony Eden on a s t o p o v e r i n Rangoon...cabled Nu t o meet him and t o b r i n g Kyaw N y e i n and Ba Swe w i t h him. "Why Ba Swe and Kyaw N y e i n a l s o " Nu i s r e p o r t e d t o have s a i d , " I am Prime M i n i s t e r and t h e P r e s i d e n t o f t h e . A.F.P.F.L."59/ U Nu's v a l u e system t h e n seems t o c o n t a i n the paramount v a l u e o f independence and t h e maintenance of i n t e g r i t y , w h i l e a l l o t h e r v a l u e s a r e l o o s e l y d e f i n e d and w i t h no d e t e r m i n a n t o r d e r . T h i s f i n d i n g may be t o some e x t e n t the r e s u l t o f l a c k o f i n f o r m a -t i o n but many s t u d e n t s of Burmese p o l i t i c s and p e o p l e who have worked w i t h U Nu have made comments t h a t tend t o r e i n f o r c e t h i s e s t i m a t i o n . 58/ I b i d . , p. 54. 59/ I b i d . , p. 84. 60/ , E s p e c i a l l y W a l i n s k y who a t t r i b u t e s a l a r g e p a r t o f t h e c h a o t i c s t a t e of Burmese economic p l a n n i n g t o U Nu's f l u c t u a t i n g p o l i c i e s i n L o u i s J . W a l i n s k y , Economic Development of Burma, 1951-60, (New York: The T w e n t i e t h C e n t u r y Fund, 1962), p a s s i m and "The R i s e and F a l l o f U Nu" P a c i f i c A f f a i r s , ( F a l l and W i n t e r , 1965-66), pp. 269-281. - 37 -H i s g o a l s would seem to- be c u l t u r a l l y d e r i v e d i n two ways. H i s s t r o n g B u d d h i s t o r i e n t a t i o n r e p r e s e n t s t h e s t a b l e c u l t u r a l l y d e r i v e d g o a l s found i n the t r a d i t i o n - d i r e c t e d p e r s o n -l i t y . a n d h i s r e l i a n c e on t h e d e c i s i o n s and t h e a p p r o v a l o f h i s c o l l e a g u e s r e p r e s e n t t h e f l u c t u a t i n g c u l t u r a l l y d e r i v e d g o a l s " of the o t h e r - d i r e c t e d p e r s o n a l i t y . The p r i m a r y g o a l i s , of c o u r s e , s t a b l e b u t t h e dependence on group a p p r o v a l seems t o l e a d t o an i n s t a b i l i t y i n a l l o t h e r a r e a s t h a t i s h e i g h t e n e d by t h e l a c k of any c l e a r d e l i n e a t i o n o f t h e s e o t h e r v a l u e s . S i n c e t h e s e lower l e v e l g o a l s , such as n e u t r a l i s m , - s e e m a l s o t o be viewed as means t o the paramount g o a l , t h e r e i s a f u r t h e r t e ndency toward i n s t a b i l i t y . I n d i s c u s s i n g Nehru i t i s p o s s i b l e t o l o o k a t h i s r e a c t i o n s i n some s i m i l a r s i t u a t i o n s (a) t h e s t r u g g l e f o r independence; (b) the t h r e a t of Japanese o c c u p a t i o n ( r a t h e r t h a n a c t u a l o c c u p a t i o n ) ; (c) t h e Korean s i t u a t i o n ; (d) t h e d e c i s i o n t o t a k e a n e u t r a l i s t p o l i c y . Nehru's g o a l system seems a much more comprehensive and c o m p l i c a t e d one than was U Nu's. Because of t h e i n t e r r e l a t e d n e s s o f a number of g o a l s (an i n t e r r e l a t e d n e s s he has commented upon many t i m e s ) no one g o a l s t a n d s o u t as p r o m i n e n t l y as does i n d e -pendence i n the case of U Nu. Independence was, o f c o u r s e , a h i g h r a n k i n g v a l u e w h i l e t h e r e t e n t i o n of independence was n o t a r e a l problem as i t was i n Burma. But Nehru l i n k s independence b o t h t o an i d e a l economic - 38 -system, where t h e r e i s no e x p l o i t a t i o n o f t h e masses, and t o an i d e a l i n t e r n a t i o n a l system i n a much more c o m p l i c a t e d manner t h a n U Nu's s i m p l e d e s i r e t h a t Burma be l e f t a l o n e . Nehru v i s u a l i z e s s e v e r a l t y p e s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l systems and sees t h e o n l y r a t i o n a l c o u r s e as one d i r e c t e d toward a system 62 / somewhat l i k e K a p l a n ' s " u n i v e r s a l i n t e r n a t i o n a l system". ' S m a l l s t a t e s w i l l d i s a p p e a r and g i v e p l a c e e i t h e r t o some w o r l d F e d e r a t i o n or t o t h r e e , o r p o s s i b l y f o u r F e d e r a t i o n s o r Empire S t a t e s . I f t h e l a t t e r emerge, t h e r e w i l l be c o n t i n u i n g h o s t i l i t y and c o n f l i c t , b o t h i n t e r n a l and e x t e r n a l . I n t e r n a l because an Empire S t a t e n e c e s s a r i l y i n v o l v e s t h e e n f o r c e d s u b j u g a t i o n o f o t h e r p e o p l e s and n a t i o n s w h i c h w i l l c o n t i n u a l l y attempt t o f r e e t h e m s e l v e s . E x t e r n a l , because t h e r e w i l l be r i v a l r y between th e d i f f e r e n t Empire S t a t e s o r F e d e r a t i o n s . 6 3 / Nehru's r e a c t i o n s t o e v e n t s d u r i n g t h e Second World War i n d i c a t e how o t h e r v a l u e s , e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e c o n c e r n i n g t h e i n t e r -n a t i o n a l system i m p i g n e d o n h i s d e s i r e f o r independence and how he went t h r o u g h t h e p r o c e s s o f o r d e r i n g t h e s e v a l u e s I wanted I n d i a t o t a k e an eager and a c t i v e p a r t i n t h e mighty c o n f l i c t , f o r I f e l t t h a t h i g h p r i n c i p l e s would be a t s t a k e and out o f t h i s c o n f l i c t would come g r e a t and r e v o l u t i o n a r y changes i n I n d i a and the w o r l d . . . B u t I was c o n v i n c e d t h a t o n l y as a f r e e c o u n t r y and an e q u a l c o u l d she f u n c t i o n . 6 4 / 61/ Norman, D o r o t h y , ( e d . ) , Nehru, The F i r s t S i x t y Y e a r s , (New York: The John Day Company, 1965), 11, pp. 3 0-31. 62/ K a p l a n , Morton A., Systems and P r o c e s s i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s , (New York: John W i l e y & Sons, I n c . , 1967), p. 45. 63/ Norman,'. l o c . c i t . 64/ I b i d . , 11, p. 141. - 3 9 -Satyagraha (adherence t o t r u t h and t h e p r a c t i c e o f n o n - v i o l e n t r e s i s t a n c e ) i s n o t i m m e d i a t e l y i n d i c a t e d . . . I t h i n k i t would be wrong f o r us a t t h i s p a r t i c u l a r moment when B r i t a i n i s i n p e r i l t o t a k e advantage of her d i s t r e s s and r u s h a t her t h r o a t . 6 5 / Nehru's broad and o f t e n p h i l o s o p h i c a l approach t o t h e Korean s i t u a t i o n s t a n d s i n g r e a t c o n t r a s t t o Nu's r e a c t i o n quoted above I t i s e x t r a o r d i n a r y t h a t we s h o u l d seek t o h e l p our f r i e n d s i n ways w h i c h k i l l o r d e s t r o y them. I t i s i n d e e d a s t r a n g e commentary on the way o f v i o l e n c e w h i c h we are somehow f o r c e d t o adopt i n t h e p r e s e n t w o r l d . 66/ N e u t r a l i s m and I n d i a ' s p o l i c y toward C h i n a a r e d e f i n e d as h a v i n g i n t r i n s i c v a l u e Dr. K u n z u i r e f e r r e d t o our n o n - a l i g n m e n t and t o P a n c h s h e e l as a s l o g a n and an o p i a t e . I c l a i m t h a t t h e s e p r i n c i p l e s a r e r i g h t . . . T h e p r e s e n t Government w i l l h o l d t o n o n a l i g n m e n t because i t i s a m a t t e r o f p r i n c i p l e , n o t o f o p p o r t u n i s m o r t h e c o n v e n i e n c e o f t h e day.67/ A l t h o u g h no one g o a l s t a n d s o u t as i n U Nu's case and t h e r e i s a d i f f i c u l t y i n o r d e r i n g t h e g o a l s , t h e y a r e w e l l d e f i n e d and a t a v e r y s p e c i f i c l e v e l . T h i s l e n d s a much g r e a t e r s t a b i l i t y t o the system t h a n i n the case of Nu where most g o a l s a r e r e a l l y means. The v a l u e system would a l s o seem t o be h i g h l y i n t e r n a l i z e d . Nehru was n o t a r e l i g i o u s man and b e i n g much more W e s t e r n i z e d t h a n 65/ I b i d . , 11, p. 21. 66/ Speech t o the R a j y a Sabba, June 12, 1953. 67/ R e p l y d u r i n g debate i n R a j y a Sabha, Sept. 10/59. - 40 -U Nu, n o t d e e p l y embued w i t h t r a d i t i o n a l c u l t u r e . Nor i s t h e r e much e v i d e n c e o f any dependence upon the norms and t h e a p p r o v a l o f groups i n the c u l t u r e nor even from such s t r o n g r e f e r e n t s as h i s f a t h e r and Gandhi. The e a r l i e r h i s t o r y o f h i s p o l i t i c a l c a r e e r e x h i b i t s many s t r o n g d i s a g r e e m e n t s w i t h h i s f a t h e r and the con-sequent g o i n g o f s e p a r a t e ways on the p a r t i c u l a r problems where 68/ t h e r e was d i s a g r e e m e n t . ' The f o l l o w i n g p o r t i o n o f one o f Gandhi's l e t t e r s , c o n c e r n i n g i n d i v i d u a l c i v i l d i s o b e d i e n c e h i n t s a t Nehru's u n w i l l i n g n e s s t o f o l l o w , even on such a t a c t i c a l m a t t e r I f t h i s (the e f f e c t of i n d i v i d u a l c i v i l d i s o b e d i e n c e ) i s h a r d f o r you t o b e l i e v e , I would ask you t o suspend judgment and watch r e s u l t s . . . I know what s t r a i n you a r e b e a r i n g i n g i v i n g me your l o y a l t y . From t h e above f r a g m e n t a r y e v i d e n c e , I would redraw t h e f o u r f o l d t a b l e as f o l l o w s S t a b l e F l u c t u a t i n g I n t e r n a l i z e d Nehru C u l t u r a l l y U Nu U Nu D e r i v e d ( h i g h e r l e v e l g o a l s ) (lower l e v e l g o a l s ) I f i d i o s y n c r a t i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a r e i m p o r t a n t i t i s h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t Nehru w i l l t e n d t o l o o k a t t h e d i s p u t e i n terms o f v a l u e s r e p r e s e n t i n g such t h i n g s as " r i g h t " c o n d u c t more th a n w i l l U Nu. H 2 U Nu w i l l t e n d t o d i s r e g a r d a l l o t h e r v a l u e s save the s e c u r i t y o f Burma i n the d i s p u t e . 68/ Norman, op. c i t . , 1, passim. 41 -Nehru's d e c i s i o n s w i l l t e n d t o be more r i g i d t h a n w i l l U Nu's because h i s v a l u e system i s more c l e a r l y d e f i n e d and t h e r e f o r e a g r e a t e r r e s t r i c t i n g f o r c e . S o c i e t a l V a r i a b l e ; Because of t h e u n a v a i l a b i l i t y o f d a t a a measurement o f the k i n d p r e v i o u s l y d e s c r i b e d was n o t p o s s i b l e . The o n l y a v a i l a b l e i n d i c a t i o n o f p r e s s o p i n i o n i n I n d i a i s i n the S i n o - I n d i a n Border 69/ I s s u e (October 1959-February 1961); A R e s e a r c h Backgrounder ' which c o n t a i n s 19 e d i t o r i a l s from s e l e c t e d newspapers between t h e d a t e s i n d i c a t e d . T a b l e 3 l i s t s t h e n e w s p a p e r s , . i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e i r c i r c u l a t i o n , on t h e i r p o l i t i c a l o r i e n t a t i o n , and on t h e i r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i n the R a s e a r c h Backgrounder. B e s i d e s t h e g e n e r a l l a c k o f a v a i l a b i l i t y o f t h i s t y p e of i n f o r m a t i o n a problem w i t h t h e i n f o r m a t i o n on t h i s v a r i a b l e i s t h a t a l t h o u g h M a l l o r y ' s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n by p o l i t i c a l o r i e n t a t i o n would seem t o be. h e l p f u l i n making i n f e r e n c e s , from knowledge o f t h e e d i t o r i a l p o l i c i e s o f one paper, about t h e p o l i c i e s o f o t h e r papers w i t h a s i m i l a r c l a s s i f i c a t i o n he g i v e s no i n f o r m a t i o n on how t h e s e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s were a r r i v e d a t . I t would be i n t e r e s t i n g t o study t h e e d i t o r i a l p o l i c i e s o f t h e s e papers f o r s e v e r a l i s s u e a r e a s t o ge t some i n d i c a t i o n o f how v a l i d such i n f e r e n c e s might be. M a l l o r y ' s d a t a a l s o c o v e r o n l y E n g l i s h language d a i l i e s f o r I n d i a . S i n c e , o f the. r e p o r t e d d a i l y c i r c u l a t i o n i n The I n t e r n a t i o n a l Yearbook o f 69/ (Hong Kong, 1961), p a s s i m . - 4 2 -T a b l e I I I Paper A m r i t a Bazar P a t r i k a The Statesman R i n d u s t a n S t a n d a r d New Leader The M a i l I n d i a n E x p r e s s Times o f I n d i a Hindu PRESS OPINION IN. INDIA No. O f E d i t o r i a l s , , P o l i t i c a l ? / C o n c e r n i n g C i r c u l a t i o n ' O r i e n t a t i o n ' C h i n a No. o f E d i t o r i a l s H o s t i l e Toward C h i n a 90,484 102,308 81,333 55,546 13 2,3 28 Pro-Congress Independent-N a t i o n a l i s t Independent Independent Independent N a t i o n a l i s t Independent N a t i o n a l i s t 1 2 8 2 1 19 0 1 8 1 1 15 1/ C i r c u l a t i o n f i g u r e s are f o r 1966, t h e f i r s t y e a r f o r w h i c h i n f o r m a t i o n was a v a i l a b l e . T o t a l d a i l y r e p o r t e d c i r c u l a t i o n i n 1966 was 1,319,345. I n t e r n a t i o n a l Yearbook and Statesman's. Who's "Who, 1966, p. 271. 2/ P o l i t i c a l Handbook, 1961, p. 10 9. 43 -1,319,345, a t o t a l o f 832,012 was accounted f o r by p a p e r s o f o t h e r l a n g u a g e s , t h i s i s a s e r i o u s gap. There i s , however, a c l e a r preponderance o f h o s t i l e e d i t o r i a l s . A l t h o u g h the R e s e a r c h Backgrounder seems t o be s l a n t e d towards p r e s e n t i n g a p i c t u r e o f 70/ h o s t i l e I n d i a n o p i n i o n . t h e p i c t u r e i s n o t t o o f a r from t h a t 71/ g i v e n by o t h e r o b s e r v e r s . The C h i n e s e seem t o have s h a r e d the v i e w t h a t t h e I n d i a n p r e s s was p r e d o m i n a n t l y h o s t i l e and on A p r i l 27, 1959 t h e P e o p l e 1 s D a i l y e s t i m a t e d t h a t between F e b r u a r y 24 and A p r i l 7 t h e I n d i a n p r e s s had p u b l i s h e d o v e r 310,000 words 72/ o f " u n f r i e n d l y comments." In Burma t h e o n l y paper on w h i c h t h e r e i s any e v i d e n c e i s The N a t i o n , a major E n g l i s h d a i l y i n Rangoon, w i t h a c i r c u l a t i o n o f 10,000 o u t o f a t o t a l Burmese newspaper c i r c u l a -t i o n o f 101,650. I t s p o l i t i c a l o r i e n t a t i o n has been d e s c r i b e d as i n d e p e n d e n t , pro-Western, and v i g o r o u s l y a n t i - c o m m u n i s t . O t h e r papers w i t h a t o t a l c i r c u l a t i o n o f 54,750 have been s i m i l a r l y d e s c r i b e d . : The N a t i o n gave the Burmese p u b l i c i t s f i r s t knowledge 7 0/ Note the o v e r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e e x t r e m e l y . h o s t i l e Indian.  E x p r e s s . 71/ Tang, op_. c i t . , p a s s i m . B r e c h e r , Menon, op. c i t . , p a s s i m . S h a r o k l e S a b a v a l a , " G u l f i n I n d i a " i n R e s e a r c h Backgrounder, op. c i t . , p. 52. 72/ Tang, Op. c i t . , p. 596. - 44 -o f C h i n e s e i n c u r s i o n s i n the n o r t h i n J u l y 1956. I t s h e a d l i n e s were a p p a r e n t l y p a n i c k y , p r o c l a i m i n g t h a t the C h i n e s e h e l d 1,000 73/ s q . m i l e s o f Burmese t e r r i t o r y . ' Whittam d e s c r i b e s The Nation.' s r e a c t i o n t o t h e 196 0 Agreement w i t h The N a t i o n , under l e s s o f - a n o b l i g a t i o n t o be d i p l o m a t i c , s a i d t h a t t h e Burmese were p a y i n g a h i g h p r i c e i n p r i n c i p l e , p r i d e , and e m o t i o n , i n o r d e r t o p u t the C h i n e s e i n a p o s i t i o n where t h e y would never a g a i n be a b l e t o b u l l y Burma w i t h o u t b r a n d i n g themselves" as aggressors'. 74/ Some a c t i o n s and statements of Burmese l e a d e r s would i n d i c a t e t h a t most o f t h e p r e s s was i n agreement with.The N a t i o n . I n 1957 Ba Swe, A c t i n g Prime M i n i s t e r , a t t e m p t e d t o w i t h h o l d i n f o r -75/ m a t i o n as had been t h e p o l i c y up u n t i l 1956. On A p r x l 28, 1960 U Nu i n d i c a t e d t h a t the C h i n e s e government was b e i n g so s e v e r e l y c r i t i c i z e d i n Burma a t t h a t time t h a t he a p p e a l e d t o t h e p r e s s " t o r e f r a i n from p u b l i s h i n g a n y t h i n g ( f u r t h e r ) t h a t might j e o p a r d i z e 76/ t h e n e g o t i a t i o n s . " ' On t h e b a s i s o f t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n , t h e p r e s s i n b oth I n d i a and Burma c o u l d be c l a s s i f i e d as h o s t i l e . 73/ T r a g e r , F r a n k N., Burma from Kingdom t o R e p u b l i c , ' (New York: F r e d e r i c k A. P r a e g e r , 1966), p. 241. 74/ Whittam, Daphne E., "The Sino-Burmese T r e a t y " , P a c i f i c A f f a i r s , (Summer, 1961). p. 17 9. 75/ : The New York Times Index , 1957. 76/ T r a g e r , l o c : c i t . - 4 5 -I n I n d i a p r e s s o p i n i o n seems t o have been r e f l e c t i v e o f b r o a d e r p u b l i c o p i n i o n . A l l o p p o s i t i o n p a r t i e s b u t t h e I . C P . • 77/ c a l l e d f o r s t r o n g e r measures a g a i n s t the C h i n e s e . ' A c c o r d i n g t o Tang a f t e r d e s c r i b i n g o p p o s i t i o n v i e w s on t h e T i b e t a n e v e n t s o f 1959 T h i s s e n t i m e n t (antagonism toward C hina) was a l a r m i n g l y w i d e s p r e a d . I n d i a n r e s i d e n t s i n numerous c i t i e s g a t h e r e d t o demonstrate b e f o r e t h e C h i n e s e Communist embassy and c o n s u l a t e s . 7 8 / On t h e o c c a s i o n of Chou's A p r i l 17, 1960 v i s i t t o D e l h i f o u r p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s , the P r a j a - S o c i a l i s t s , t h e J a n Sangh, th e O r i s s a G a n a t a n t r a Pareshad and t h e R e p u b l i c a n P a r t y o r g a n i z e d 79/ . . a n t i - C h i n e s e d e m o n s t r a t i o n s . ' I f s o c i e t a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a r e i m p o r t a n t i t i s h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t B o t h Burma and I n d i a w i l l t e n d t o produce n e g a t i v e p o l i c y o u t p u t s . Governmental V a r i a b l e ; 8 0/' U s i n g R u s s e t t ' s 1959-61 ' d a t a and a c u t o f f p o i n t o f s i x p e r c e n t of t h e w o r k i n g age p o p u l a t i o n employed by t h e bureau-c r a c y , t e n b u r e a u c r a c i e s , those o f Norway, Ghana, M a l a y a , Kenya, Japan, Taiwan, Uganda, I n d i a , South Korea and N i g e r i a a r e c l a s s i f i e d as s m a l l . E i g h t b u r e a u c r a c i e s , , t h o s e of New Z e a l a n d , A u s t r a l i a , t h e 77/ R e s e a r c h Backgrounder, p. 34. 78/ Tang, op_. c i t . , p. 596 . 79/ I b i d . , p. 597. 80/ R u s s e t t , op_. c i t . , p. 70. - 46 -U n i t e d Kingdom, Denmark, T r i n i d a d , t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , F r a n c e , and West Germany ar e c l a s s i f i e d as l a r g e . F i g u r e s f r o m B r a i b a n t i r e v e a l t h e Burmese b u r e a u c r a c y t o employ a p p r o x i m a t e l y two p e r c e n t o f t h e w o r k i n g age p o p u l a t i o n . ' I t i s h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t The governmental f a c t o r s w i l l n o t be i m p o r t a n t i n e i t h e r Burma o r I n d i a . The Systemic V a r i a b l e and P o l i c y O u t p u t s: The p o l i c y o u t p u t s c o n s i d e r e d here are t h o s e d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o c e a s e f i r e agreements o r the r e d u c t i o n o f b o r d e r t e n s i o n , t h e p r e p a r a t i o n f o r n e g o t i a t i o n , and the n e g o t i a t i o n s . Thus t h e r e are no outcomes r e l a t e d t o s u c h a r e a s as economic s a n c t i o n s . ' As o n l y t h e p a t t e r n s o f n e g a t i v e and p o s i t i v e r e s p o n s e s w i l l be l o o k e d a t t h e problem o f magnitude has been i g n o r e d . I n f o r m a t i o n on Burmese p o l i c y outcomes was n o t as d e t a i l e d as t h a t on I n d i a ' s b u t b o t h s e t s can s t i l l be coded p o s i t i v e l y o r n e g a t i v e l y and i t i s assumed t h a t a l t h o u g h i n f o r m a t i o n on Burma i s not n e a r l y as complete t h e r e i s no b i a s i n f a v o u r o f e i t h e r p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e o u t p u t s . The d a t e f o r Burma had t o be c o l l e c t e d from 81/ R a l p h B r a i b a n t i , (ed. ) , A s i a n B u r e a u c r a t i c Systems 1 Emergent  from t h e B r i t i s h I m p e r i a l T r a d i t i o n , (Durham, N.C.: Duke U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 66), p. 398. - 47 -a number o f secondary s o u r c e s , / w h i l e t h e d a t a f o r I n d i a came from t h e n o t e s and memoranda exchanged between I n d i a and C h i n a p u b l i s h e d i n t h e Government o f I n d i a ' s White P a p e r s . These outcomes were l i n k e d t o what seemed t o be t h e r e l e v a n t i n p u t s coming from C h i n a . The i n p u t s have been coded i n t h e same way as t h e o u t p u t s and i n c a s e s where no s p e c i f i c i n p u t o r p u t p u t c o u l d be a s c e r t a i n e d t h e y were coded 0. The i n p u t and o u t p u t f o r a c e r t a i n time p e r i o d were combined t o f o r m an 83/ i n p u t - o u t p u t s t a t e . F o r Burma the s t a t e s were d e t e r m i n e d i n t u i t i v e l y f r o m t h e r e c o n s t r u c t i o n s o f t h e e v e n t s . a p p e a r i n g i n t h e secondary s o u r c e s . I n t h e case o f I n d i a most n o t e s and l e t t e r s were i n answer t o s p e c i f i c n o t e s o r a c t i o n s o f the C h i n e s e government. B r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n s o f the I n p u t s and o u t p u t s a r e c o n t a i n e d i n t h e a p p e n d i c e s A and B. 82/ Ambekar, G.V. and D i v e k a r , V.D., Documents on C h i n a ' s R e l a t i o n s  w i t h South and S o u t h - e a s t A s i a (1949-62), (Bombay; A l l i e d P u b l i s h e r s P r i v a t e L t d . , 1964). J o h n s t o n e , Burma's F o r e i g n P o l i c y . Tang, Communist C h i n a Today. T i n k e r , Hugh, The U n i o n o f Burma, (London: O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1957). T r a g e r , Burma from Kingdom t o R e p u b l i c . Whittam, "The Sino-Burmese T r e a t y " . 83/ T h i s p r o c e s s o f l i n k i n g sequences o f a c t i o n s i s d e r i v e d from: M c C l e l l a n d , C h a r l e s A., " A c t i o n S t r u c t u r e and Communi-c a t i o n i n Two I n t e r n a t i o n a l C r i s e s : Quemoy and B e r l i n " , Background, (Feb. 1964), p.p. 201-215; and from Ashby, W. Ross, An I n t r o d u c t i o n t o C y b e r n e t i c s , (New York: John W i l e y & Sons, I n c . , 1963), e s p e c i a l l y c h a p t e r s 4 and 6. - 48 -T a b l e IV INPUT-OUTPUT.STATES FOR BURMA Time In p u t Output Time I n p u t Output 1 (0) (+) 14 (+) (+ 2 (+) (+) 15 (-) (-3 (-) (-) 16 (-) (-4 (-) (+) 17 (+) (-5 (-) (-) 18 (M (-6 (+) (+) 19 (-) (-7 (+) (+) 20 (-) (-8 (+) (+) 21 (+) (-9 (-) (^ ) 22 (-) (-10 ( + ) (-) 23 (0) (+ 11 (+) (-) 24 (+) (+ 12 (+) (-) 25 (+) (+ 13 (+) (+) Of e i g h t p o s s i b l e t y p e s of input-.output s t a t e s the twenty-seven s t a t e s a r e d i s t r i b u t e d as f o l l o w s : T a b l e V DISTRIBUTION OF BURMESE INPUT-OUTPUT STATES Types Number Of Times A p p e a r i n g (-) (+) (+) (0) (0) (+) (-) (+.). (-) (+•). (+) (-) (0) (0) 9 1 5 8 2 0 0 0 - 49 -F i g u r e I I NUMBER OF NOTES CONCERNING BORDER INCIDENTS 35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 I I n d i a n C h i n e s e - 50 -F i g u r e I I I NUMBER OF NOTES LODGING PROTESTS 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 I n d i a n C h i n e s e - 51 -84/ W i t h the e x t e n t o f t h e d a t a ' on t h e S i n o - I n d i a n d i s p u t e i t was p o s s i b l e t o separate, the exchanges d e a l i n g w i t h a r r a n g e -ments f o r r e d u c i n g t e n s i o n , a c t u a l t e r r i t o r i a l c l a i m s , and arrangements f o r n e g o t i a t i o n s from th o s e d e a l i n g s o l e l y w i t h p r o t e s t s and a l l e g a t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g the armed c l a s h e s . From 1954 t o t h e end o f 1962 t h e r e were a t l e a s t 2 08 such n o t e s exchanged. I n the Burmese s i t u a t i o n t h e r e were o n l y two s h o r t p e r i o d s i n wh i c h armed c l a s h e s o c c u r r e d and t h e r e a r e no d a t a on the n o t e s exchanged o v e r t h e s e e v e n t s . I n F i g u r e 1 the number o f n o t e s exchanged i s p l o t t e d a g a i n s t t i m e (at s i x month p e r i o d s ) . I t can be seen t h a t t h e r e a r e sharp i n c r e a s e s i n the number o f n o t e s i n 195 9 and i n 1962. F i g u r e 2 p l o t s t h e number o f n o t e s l o d g i n g f o r m a l p r o t e s t s a g a i n s t t i m e . T h i s would be some measure o f t h e i n c r e a s i n g h o s t i l i t y e v i d e n t i n the n o t e s . An example o f t h e tone o f an e a r l y n o t e would be We r e g r e t t o say t h a t C h i n e s e t r o o p s came s o u t h o f t h e Tuhjun La and were camping a t B a r a H o t i a l o n g s i d e our t r o o p s . We would l i k e t o r e p e a t t h a t we a r e most a n x i o u s t o a v o i d any p o s s i b l e i n c i d e n t and we, t h e r e f o r e , s uggest t h a t s t r i c t i n s t r u c t i o n s s h o u l d be i s s u e d t h a t no p e r s o n n e l from the T i b e t r e g i o n o f C h i n a s h o u l d c r o s s i n t o I n d i a w i t h o u t due p e r m i s s i o n from u s . 8 5 / 84/ There i s a s e r i o u s gap i n these d a t a , however, as v o l . 2 o f the Government o f I n d i a White P a p e r s c o n t a i n i n g t h e exchanges from Sept.. 1959 t o Nov. 1959 i s not a v a i l a b l e . M a j o r l e t t e r s exchanged were a v a i l a b l e i n o t h e r s o u r c e s s u c h as Ambekar and the Documents p u b l i s h e d i n P e k i n g but t h e r e was no o t h e r source f o r t h e n o t e s c o n t a i n i n g p r o t e s t s and a l l e g a t i o n s . 85/ November 5/55. - 52 -and o f a l a t e r n o t e The Government o f I n d i a s t r o n g l y p r o t e s t a g a i n s t t h e s e r e p e a t e d v i o l a t i o n s o f I n d i a n t e r r i t o r y by C h i n e s e armed f o r c e s . U n t i l now Government have ob s e r v e d d i s c r e e t r e t i c e n c e about t h e s e i n c i d e n t s a l t h o u g h t h e r e i s a good d e a l o f c o n c e r n among the I n d i a n p u b l i c , and I n P a r l i a m e n t , about th e s e c u r i t y arrangements on I n d i a ' s n o r t h e r n f r o n t i e r . The I n d i a n i n p u t o u t p u t s t a t e s w i l l be d e s c r i b e d by t h e n o t e s a c t u a l l y c oncerned w i t h t e r r i t o r i a l c l a i m s , measure f o r r e d u c t i o n o f t e n s i o n , and arrangements f o r m e e t i n g s and where p o s s i b l e the m e e t ings t h e m s e l v e s . Many o f t h e n o t e s exchanged c o n t a i n r e f e r e n c e s t o more th a n one q u e s t i o n and so t h e r e are s e v e r a l s t a t e s i n many t i m e p e r i o d s . Where a s p e c i f i c i n p u t has been made and n o t approved o r r e j e c t e d by the I n d i a n s i d e i t has been coded (+) (0) and where the I n d i a n s i d e has made a p r o p o s a l t h a t i s n o t l i n k e d t o a p r e v i o u s C h i n e s e p r o p o s a l i t has been coded (0) •( + );. 86/ August 28/59. - 53 -Table V I INPUT-OUTPUT STATES FOR INDIA Input Output Time Input Output (+) 9 (+) (+) (+). (-) •(-) (-) (-) (+). (+) <+). (-) 10 (0), (-) (0) (+) 11 (-) (-) (-) (-) 12 (-) (-) (+) •(<-) 13 (0) (+). •(*-) 14 (-) (-) (0) (+) 15 (+) (0) (+). 16 (-) » (+) (+) 17 (0) (-) (+) (0) 18 (-) (-) (+) (+) 19 (+) (-) (+) (0) (+) (0) (+) (+) •(+.) (-) (-) (0) - (0) •(+) 0-)- (-) 20 (^ ) (+) (+). (-) (+) (-) (-) (-) (+) (-) (+). (-) (+) •(J-) (+). . 21 •(+•)• (0) (+) (0) (+) (0) (0) (+). (+•). (0) (0) (+) (+•) (0) (-) (0) 22 (+). (0) (+) (0) 23 (+•) (0) <<-) (0) •(+•) (-) 24 •(+)•• (-) The d i s t r i b u t i o n of. t h e I n d i a n s t a t e s a r e as f o l l o w s T a b l e V I I DISTRIBUTION OF INDIAN INPUT-OUTPUT STATES Type Number o f Times A p p e a r i n g M. (-) 10 » (+) 2 (+).-(-) 14 (+) (+) 5 (0) •( + ) 6 (0) (-) 3 •M (0) 3 (+). (0) 11 The: P r o c e s s e s I n l o o k i n g a t the d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s and e s t i m a t i n g t h e r e l a t i v e p o t e n c y o f t h e p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e s two approaches were used: (a) l o o k i n g a t the g e n e r a l p i c t u r e o f the p r o c e s s g l e a n e d from d e s c r i p t i v e s t u d i e s , newspaper a c c o u n t s , and a c c o u n t s o f p a r t i -c i p a n t s s u c h as Menon and t h r o u g h a p r o c e s s o f r e c r e a t i n g the e v e n t s , r e a s o n i n g which v a r i a b l e s might be i m p i n g i n g most s t r o n g l y on t h e p r o c e s s . T h i s approach was used e s p e c i a l l y where t h e r e was no change i n a p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e ; (b) where a change o c c u r r e d i n a p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e an e x p e c t e d change i n outcome c o u l d be hypothe-s i z e d . T h i s approach was c a r r i e d o u t most f u l l y i n t h e case o f the s y s t e m i c v a r i a b l e and t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t i n the I n d i a n change i n - 5 5 -the s o c i e t a l v a r i a b l e i n 1959 and the. Burmese change i n the i d i o -s y n c r a t i c v a r i a b l e i n 1958. The f i r s t p a r t o f the S i n o - I n d i a n b o r d e r d i s p u t e (from 1954-March 1959) has been c l a s s i f i e d as a t e r r i t o r i a l d i s p u t e . I t has been h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t d u r i n g t h e f i r s t p a r t i d i o s y n c r a t i c v a r i a b l e s would be more i m p o r t a n t t h a n s o c i e t a l ones and t h a t as the i s s u e changed t o one o f s t a t u s s o c i e t a l p r e s s u r e s would become more i m p o r t a n t . I n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g the b o r d e r d i s p u t e was n o t made a v a i l a b l e t o the p u b l i c u n t i l Nehru i n t r o d u c e d t h e m a t t e r i n P a r l i a m e n t on August 28, 1959 and the p u b l i c a t i o n o f the Government of I n d i a ' s f i r s t White Paper on the s u b j e c t . There was, t h e r e f o r e , no p r e s s or p u b l i c o p i n i o n i m p i n g i n g on the p r o c e s s i n t h e p a r t i -c u l a r i s s u e u n t i l t h i s t i m e . P r e s s and p u b l i c o p i n i o n f i r s t became ma r k e d l y h o s t i l e toward the C h i n e s e Government i n March o f 1959 d u r i n g the T i b e t a n r e b e l l i o n . The p r o c e s s d u r i n g the f i r s t p e r i o d would, t h e r e f o r e , be e x p e c t e d t o have been dominated by Nehru's n o n - v i o l e n t b u t s t i l l r i g i d approach. H i s i d i o s y n c r a t i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of r i g i d n e s s would be e x p e c t e d t o become more prominent w i t h the change o f i s s u e a r e a . F i g u r e 2 l e n d s some cre d e n c e t o t h i s h y p o t h e s i s w i t h the sharp i n c r e a s e i n number of n o t e s l o d g i n g p r o t e s t s i n 195 9. I n T a b l e VI o n l y t h e f i r s t i n p u t o u t p u t s t a t e o c c u r r e d b e f o r e 1959. Most o f Nehru's s t a t e m e n t s on the i s s u e r e f l e c t h i s Gandhian, n o n a l i g n e d , n o n - v i o l e n t background. The f o l l o w i n g seems t o have been t y p i c a l of exchanges i n the Lok Sabha and R a j y a Sabha. - 56 -Mr. P.P. S i n g h Do n o t t h e Government c o n t e m p l a t e o u s t i n g t h e C h i n e s e from t h i s I n d i a n t e r r i t o r y by f o r c e ? The Prime M i n i s t e r No, S i r , The Government w i l l not c o n s i d e r t h i s c o u r s e , because t h a t i s n o t the way t h e Government would l i k e t o f u n c t i o n i n such m a t t e r s . I n m a t t e r s l i k e t h i s d e c i s i o n s can o n l y be made by c o n f e r e n c e s , by agreement, C o u n t r i e s do n o t , and s h o u l d n o t , go t o war w i t h o u t p r o c e e d i n g i n o t h e r ways.8 7/ He seems a l s o t o have p r o j e c t e d t h i s s e t o f v a l u e s t o I n d i a n s o c i e t y We i n I n d i a a r e by our background and temperament p e a c e f u l by n a t u r e . We e a r n e s t l y b e l i e v e i n t h e s e t t l e m e n t of d i f f e r e n c e s by p e a c e f u l d i s c u s s i o n and n e g o t i a t i o n s . 88/ Nehru's c o n c e p t i o n o f the change i n i s s u e a r e a went a l o n g w i t h a d i f f e r e n t c o n c e p t i o n of t h e r o l e o f p u b l i c o p i n i o n i n t h e d i s p u t e . Speaking of the e a r l i e r p e r i o d he s a i d We thought a t the t i m e t h a t i t might, be e a s i e r f o r us t o d e a l w i t h t h e C h i n e s e Government w i t h o u t t o o much p u b l i c i t y . 8 9/ and o f t h e l a t e r p e r i o d .our f a i l u r e t o g i v e p u b l i c i t y , t o t h i s has r e s u l t e d i n sharp but l e g i t m a t e c r i t i c i s m o f t h e Government b o t h i n P a r l i a m e n t and i n the p r e s s i n our c o u n t r y . 9 0 / 87/ Exchange i n R a j y a Sabha, August 31/59. 88/ Speech, August 6/62. 89/ A d d r e s s t o the R a j y a Sabha, August 31/1959. 90/ Note t o the C h i n e s e P r e m i e r d a t e d September 26/59. - 57 -That p o l i c y , remained up u n t i l 1962 the a c c e p t a n c e of p e a c e f u l methods, i s p r o b a b l y an i n d i c a t i o n of t h e predominance o f Nehru's p e r s o n a l i t y b u t t h e r e i s e v i d e n c e o f t h e i n c r e a s i n g f o r c e o f p u b l i c o p i n i o n . The s e v e r e c r i t i c i s m o f Chou's A p r i l 1960 v i s i t t o D e l h i and o f V.K. K r i s h n a Menon's t a l k s i n Geneva i n 1962 w i t h M a r s h a l l Chen Y i p r o b a b l y d i d much t o r e t a r d p r o g r e s s i n the d i r e c t i o n o f n e g o t i a t i o n s and f o r c e d Nehru t o t h e r a t h e r 91/ weak d e f e n c e t h a t t h e s e were m e r e l y " t a l k s " -and n o t n e g o t i a t i o n s . E v i d e n c e o f the push a g a i n s t n e g o t i a t i o n s by the p u b l i c and o f Nehru's v i e w s i s a g a i n e v i d e n c e d i n s t a t e m e n t s as l a t e as August 14, 1962. A g r e a t d e a l has been s a i d : we must n o t t a l k t o the C h i n e s e u n l e s s t h e y v a c a t e . I r e f u s e t o a c c e p t t h i s s t a t e m e n t . ^ 2 / The most c o n c r e t e example o f the r e s u l t of s o c i e t a l p r e s s u r e s i s f o u n d i n t h e r e s i g n a t i o n of Menon i n 1962. S i n c e he s h a r ed Nehru's v i e w s on n o n a l i g n m e n t , n o n v i o l e n c e and f r i e n d s h i p 93 / toward C h i n a o r h e l d them i n more extreme form ' he was a t v a r i a n c e w i t h p r e s s o p i n i o n . There were o b j e c t i o n s t o h i s r o l e i n t h e A p r i l 94/ 95/ 1960 t a l k s ' and a g a i n . t o h i s r o l e i n 1962 a t Geneva. ' A f t e r 91/ L a l l , A r t h u r , Modern I n t e r n a t i o n a l N e g o t i a t i o n s , (New York: Columbia U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1966), p. 45. 92/ A d d r e s s t o the Lok Sabha. 93/ B r e c h e r , Menon, pa s s i m . 94/ R e s e a r c h Backgrounder, p. 69. 95/ L a l l , l o c . c i t . - 58 -the armed c l a s h e s of October 1962 t h e r e was g r e a t p u b l i c o u t c r y f o r Menon's r e s i g n a t i o n . A t f i r s t Nehru r e s i s t e d t h e p r e s s u r e t h e n on October 31, he t o o k o v e r t h e p o r t f o l i o o f Defence and a p p o i n t e d Menon M i n i s t e r o f Defence P r o d u c t i o n . But the clamour d i d n o t d i e down. A D e l h i news- -paper d e c l a r e d t h a t , h a v i n g t a s t e d b l o o d , the p e o p l e s h o u l d go 96/ f o r the k i l l and Menon s u b s e q u e n t l y r e s i g n e d from t h e l a t t e r p o s t . However, n o t a l l o f Nehru's i d i o s y n c r a t i c c h a r a c t e r -i s t i c s would p o i n t toward a more c o n c i l i a t o r y approach i n o p p o s i - -t i o n t o s o c i e t a l p r e s s u r e s . W i t h the change of i s s u e a r e a t o one i n w h i c h he f e l t t h a t such v a l u e s as honour, i n t e g r i t y , and r i g h t c o n d u c t were a t s t a k e he would be e x p e c t e d t o t a k e on a l e s s con-c i l i a t o r y a t t i t u d e We b e l i e v e f i r m l y t h a t peace i s b e t t e r t h a n war. N e v e r t h e l e s s , i f t h e C o u n t r y ' s freedom o r i t s i n t e g r i t y o r i t s honour i s a t t a c k e d , we have t o d e f e n d i t w i t h war i f n e c e s s a r y . 9 7 / L a l l f e e l s t h a t such a t t i t u d e s were r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the f a i l u r e o f n e g o t i a t i o n s Prime M i n i s t e r Nehru's f e e l i n g s d e f l e c t e d I n d i a from t h e c o u r s e o f n e g o t i a t i o n s . ; . .There was ample r e a s o n f o r n e g o t i a t i o n and p l e n t y o f d e s i r e on b o t h s i d e s f o r i t . However i n t h i s p e r i o d t h e C h i n e s e p r e s s and government o f f i c i a l s opened a campaign o f rude i n v e c t i v e d i r e c t e d 96/ George, T.J.S., K r i s h n a Menon, (London: Jonathan Cape, 1964) , p. 247. 97/ Statement t o t h e Lok Sabha, August 6, 1962. - 59 -p e r s o n a l l y a g a i n s t J a w a h a r l a l N e h r u . . . I t was c l e a r t h a t h i s f e e l i n g s had been d e e p l y wounded by the C h i n e s e v e r b a l b a r b s . He had come con-s e q u e n t l y t o d i s l i k e the i d e a o f d e a l i n g w i t h them, and t h i s was u n d o u b t e d l y one o f the r e a s o n s why s e v e r a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r n e g o t i a t i o n s were n e g l e c t e d (he t h e n c i t e s an i n c i d e n t where Nehru brought up t h e s u b j e c t of Ch i n e s e v e r b a l a t t a c k s a l t h o u g h i t was i r r e l e v a n t ) ... .My own s u g g e s t i o n s (of t a l k s w i t h C h i n e s e o f f i c i a l s i n 1961 a t Geneva) were met w i t h a f r o z e n s i l e n c e on the p a r t of t h e Prime M i n i s t e r . 9 8 / -S i n c e , i n the second s t a g e , b o t h s o c i e t a l and i d i o s y n c r a t i c v a r i a b l e s would seem t o be o r i e n t e d toward p o l i c y outcomes n o t f a v o u r i n g n e g o t i a t i o n s i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o gauge t h e i r r e l a t i v e i n f l u e n c e . However, s i n c e p o l i c y d i d not become one of p h y s i c a l v i o l e n c e , i t would seem t h a t i d i o s y n c r a t i c v a r i a b l e s were s t i l l p r e dominant. On the b a s i s of t h e a n e c d o t a l e v i d e n c e and t h e e v i d e n c e c o n c e r n i n g t h e exchanges o f n o t e s i n F i g u r e s 1 and 2 t h e r e a r e some grounds f o r t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t i d i o s y n c r a t i c v a r i a b l e s a r e most i m p o r t a n t i n b o t h t e r r i t o r i a l and s t a t u s i s s u e s i n t h e I n d i a n case but t h a t s o c i e t a l v a r i a b l e s become much more i m p o r t a n t i n the s t a t u s i s s u e t h a n i n the t e r r i t o r i a l i s s u e . I d i o s y n c r a t i c and S o c i e t a l V a r i a b l e s i n Burma. In t h e case of U Nu any v a l u e s r e l e v a n t t o t h i s s i t u a t i o n would be s u b s e r v i e n t t o the maintenance o f Burmese s o v e r e i g n t y . C h i n a ' s i n f l u e n c e b o t h i n t e r n a l and e x t e r n a l was one o f the most i m p o r t a n t t h r e a t s t o t h i s v a l u e . A l l p o l i c y seems o r i e n t e d toward the a v o i d -ance, o f p o s s i b l e C h i n e s e n e g a t i v e a c t i o n s . In a n t i c i p a t i o n of 98/ La11, op. c i t . , p. 148. - 60 -C h i n e s e i n f l i t r a t i o n and a i d t o t h e B.C.P., U Nu i n 1949 c a l l e d f o r a n e g o t i a t e d s e t t l e m e n t of t h e e n t i r e boundary, i n e f f e c t , what I n d i a had d e n i e d t h r o u g h o u t t h e S i n o - I n d i a n d i s p u t e . No o t h e r v a l u e s such as q u e s t i o n s o f hegemony i n A s i a , the T i b e t a n r e b e l l i o n , i s s u e s o f honour and r i g h t c o n d u c t seem t o have been brought -into the d i s p u t e as would be e x p e c t e d from t h e i r secondary p l a c e i n U Nu's v a l u e system. The Burmese p r o c e s s produced a much more f l e x i b l e s e r i e s o f outcomes than d i d the I n d i a n p r o c e s s e s . I t r e s u l t e d i n f i r s t t h e a d m i t t i n g of the need f o r an o v e r a l l s e t t l e m e n t and th e n i n the c h a n g i n g of t h e o r i g i n a l demand f o r the C h i n e s e t o w i t h d r a w t o t h e " l e g a l boundary" the 1941 L i n e , t o a r e q u e s t f o r w i t h d r a w a l t o the 19 41 L i n e , as an i n t e r i m measure u n t i l an o v e r a l l s e t t l e m e n t was r e a c h e d . As s t a t e d i n t h e s e c t i o n on s o c i e t a l v a r i a b l e s the p r e s s a d v o c a t e d a l e s s c o n c i l i a t o r y p o l i c y b u t d i d n o t seem as r e f l e c t i v e o f a more g e n e r a l i z e d p u b l i c o p i n i o n as d i d t h e p r e s s i n I n d i a . Nor was p u b l i c o p i n i o n as prone t o b r i n g i n i s s u e s o f s t a t u s as i t had been i n I n d i a . U Nu d i d not e x p e r i e n c e as much s o c i e t a l p r e s s u r e m i t i g a t i n g a g a i n s t t h e c o n c i l i a t o r y p o l i c y t h a t h i s i d i o s y n c r a t i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s seem t o have l e d t o . What h o s t i l e p u b l i c o p i n i o n t h e r e was, however, seems n o t t o have had the o p e n i n g i n t o t h e p r o c e s s t h a t i t d i d i n I n d i a . There was no d e l i b e r a t e d e c i s i o n t o i n f o r m the p u b l i c i n 1956 as t h e r e had been i n I n d i a i n 1959. P u b l i c awareness was t h e r e s u l t o f t h e - 61 -r e p o r t i n g i n The N a t i o n and p o l i c y makers seemed n o t t o r e c o g n i z e t h e l e g i t i m a c y o f p u b l i c c r i t i c i s m i n the s i t u a t i o n . There were s e v e r a l r e p o r t s o f a t t e m p t s by the government t o r e t u r n t o t h e 99 / e a r l i e r p o l i c y o f s e c r e c y . ' U Nu on A p r i l 28, 1960 appeal e d to the p r e s s " t o r e f r a i n from p u b l i s h i n g a n y t h i n g ( f u r t h e r ) t h a t might j e o p a r d i z e t h e n e g o t i a t i o n s f o r a p e a c e f u l settlement.'" That t h e c o n c i l i a t o r y , f l e x i b l e approach o f t h e Burmese government may n o t have been due e n t i r e l y t o t h e p e r s o n a l i t y o f U Nu i s i n d i c a t e d by t h e June 1959 c o n c e s s i o n o f t h e Panghang A r e a . From J a n u a r y 1958 t h e r e had been a s t a l e m a t e i n the n e g o t i a t i o n s and a l e s s c o n c i l i a t o r y p o l i c y on the p a r t o f the.Burmese over t h i s a r e a . Soon a f t e r the coming of t h e C a r e t a k e r Regime, Ne Win made an o f f e r o f 56 square m i l e s i n the Panghang a r e a t h a t l e a d t o the 1960 Boundary Agreement. There had been a change i n b o t h i d i o s y n c r a t i c v a r i a b l e s and i n the degree o f openness i n t h e p o l i t y , w i t h the p o l i c y r e m a i n i n g as c o n c i l i a t o r y as b e f o r e o r perhaps even more so, s u g g e s t i n g t h a t v a r i a b l e s o t h e r t h a n i d i o s y n c r a t i c ones would be r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e g e n e r a l l y c o n c i l i a t o r y p o l i c y . When the 1960 Boundary Agreement was s i g n e d U Nu had warm p r a i s e f o r i t s u g g e s t i n g t h a t i t had n o t been an I d i o s y n c r a t i c c h a r a c t e r -i s t i c t h a t had caused t h e 1958 s t a l e m a t e . 99/ T r a g e r , op_. c i t . , p. 241; and The New York Times i n d e x , 1957. 100/ T r a g e r , l o o . c i t . 101/ Tang, op_. c i t . , p. 594. - 62 -S o c i e t a l p r e s s u r e s d i d n o t seem t o be as i m p o r t a n t i n Burma as i n I n d i a even when the p o l i t y c o u l d be c l a s s i f i e d as open, a l t h o u g h s o c i e t a l p r e s s u r e s may have been r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the s l i g h t show o f i n t r a n s i g e n c e over t h e Panghang a r e a . W i t h t h e coming of the C a r e t a k e r Government t h e s e p r e s s u r e s seem t o have become even l e s s i n f l u e n t i a l . C r i t i c i s m o f government a c t i o n s was s e v e r e l y r e s t r i c t e d as was p u b l i c knowledge o f the p r o g r e s s o f t h e boundary n e g o t i a t i o n s . There seems a l s o a t t h i s t i m e t o have been an i n c r e a s e i n i m p o r t a n c e of governmental f a c t o r s . In 1958 t h e r e were s t i l l i m p o r t a n t d i f f e r e n c e s c o n c e r n i n g the a r e a s of t e r r i t o r i e s t o be exchanged y e t n e g o t i a t i o n s were h a n d l e d by o f f i c i a l s . There had been no meeting o f o f f i c i a l s b e f o r e t h i s t i m e . Governmenta1 V a r i a b l e s . Governmental f a c t o r s would seem t o have ranked l o w e s t i n b o t h n a t i o n s . D u r i n g t h e S i n o - I n d i a n d i s p u t e the I n d i a n b u r e a u c r a c y seems t o have p l a y e d a d m i r a b l y the. r o l e o f i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r e r and d i s p e n s e r The I n d i a n s . . . h a v e used t h e i r h i s t o r y i n a way w h i c h Western s c h o l a r s can u n d e r s t a n d and r e l i s h ; b ut t h e y have done so a t g r e a t l e n g t h . To; 245 i t e m s o f e v i d e n c e m a i n l y o f h i s t o r i c a l n a t u r e w h i c h t h e C h i n e s e produced i n 1960-61 t h e I n d i a n s r e p l i e d w i t h no l e s s t h a n 63 0 i t e m s . 1 0 2 / The b u r e a u c r a c y seems t o have had no r o l e i n the a c t u a l p r e s e n t a t i o n of a l t e r n a t i v e s o r i n t h e d e c i s i o n making. I l l u s t r a t i v e of t h i s 102/ Lamb, A l a s t a i r , The C h i n a - I n d i a B o r d e r ; The O r i g i n s o f the D i s p u t e d B o u n d a r i e s , (London; O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1964), p. 12. - 63 -p a s s i v e r o l e i s L a l l ' s comment Even i f t h e I n d i a n F o r e i g n O f f i c e b e l i e v e d t h a t t a l k s might be i n i t i a t e d a t Geneva (1961), knowing Mr. Nehru's f e e l i n g s i t would n o t have broached the s u b j e c t t o him.103/ I n Burma the b u r e a u c r a c y was n o t a b l e t o p l a y t h e r o l e o f i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r e r . I t i s r e p o r t e d t h a t , because o f l a c k o f s t a f f and because of t h e d i s o r g a n i z e d s t a t e o f t h e Burmese a r c h i v e s , d u r i n g n e g o t i a t i o n s t h e Burmese d e l e g a t i o n had to. base i t s c l a i m s on C h i n e s e documentation. '1^4/ There i s much e v i d e n c e t h a t U Nu's r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h the b u r e a u c r a c y i n economic a f f a i r s was n o t a v e r y s a t i s f a c t o r y on;e.'^^ I t i s p r o b a b l e t h a t t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p would have been even more s t r a i n e d i n the f i e l d of f o r e i g n p o l i c y where U Nu c o n s i d e r e d h i m s e l f the e x p e r t . I n d i r e c t l y Whittam's d e v o t i o n o f two pages o f a n i n e page a r t i c l e t o p r a i s e o f t h e performance o f t h e Burmese c i v i l s e r v i c e i n t h e p u r e l y t e c h n i c a l t a s k o f d e m a r c a t i n g t h e boundary, may a l s o be e v i d e n c e o f i t s i n e f f e c t i v e n e s s . I t was n o t e d e a r l i e r , however, t h a t t h e r e was a much h i g h e r l e v e l of a ssignment of e l i t e c a d r e o f f i c e r s t o t h e Burmese f o r e i g n s e r v i c e than t o the I n d i a n f o r e i g n s e r v i c e and i t was 103/ L a l l , op_. c i t . , p. 148. 104/ J o h n s t o n e , op_. c i t . , p. 329. 105/ Hag en, E v e r e t t , E., On The; Theory of S o c i a l Change, (Homewood, I l l i n o i s : The Dorsey P r e s s , I n c . , 1962), pp. 452-458, and W a l i n s k y , Economic Development o f Burma and "The R i s e and F a l l of U Nu", p a s s i m . - 64 -suggested t h a t perhaps t h i s would l e a d t o more b u r e a u c r a t i c i n f l u e n c e i n d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g i n Burma t h a n i n I n d i a . There i s some s c a n t e v i d e n c e o f t h i s . F i r s t , , t h e r e i s L a l l ' s f i r s t hand r e p o r t w h i c h a t t r i b u t e s t o t h e I n d i a n b u r e a u c r a c y a p a s s i v e r o l e i n the p r o c e s s . " ^ 6 / Newspaper a c c o u n t s o f c o n f e r e n c e s make no mention o f s e n i o r c i v i l s e r v a n t s but o n l y o f Nehru, Menon and o t h e r c a b i n e t m i n i s t e r s . T h e o n l y r o l e b e s i d e s t h a t o f i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r e r p l a y e d , by t h e c i v i l s e r v a n t seems t o have been d u r i n g "meetings of o f f i c i a l s " t o d i s c u s s minor p o i n t s . There can a l s o be n o t e d a marked r e l u c t a n c e on t h e p a r t o f Nehru t o d e l e g a t e a u t h o r i t y on,any-but t h e most minor p o i n t s . I n the Burmese case J o hnstone l i s t s among t h e c h i e f n e g o t i a t o r s a t t h e 1956 meeting a t l e a s t t h r e e s e n i o r c i v i l s e r v a n t s . A g a i n i n c o n t r a s t to the I n d i a n s i t u a t i o n , when t h e r e were s t i l l d i f f e r e n c e s between Burma and C h i n a o v e r t h e amount o f t e r r i t o r y t o be exchanged n e g o t i a t i o n s were t a k e n o v e r by c i v i l s e r v a n t s i n 195 9. There seems t h e n t o have been a d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e t y p e s of r o l e p l a y e d by t h e b u r e a u c r a t s . I n I n d i a t h e r e was w i t h the much more dev e l o p e d b u r e a u c r a c y an emphasis on d a t a - g a t h e r i n g . I n Burma l a c k o f r e s o u r c e s made t h i s i m p o s s i b l e b u t t h e b u r e a u c r a t s , p o s s i b l y because o f a monopoly of t a l e n t , seem t o have p l a y e d a much l a r g e r r o l e i n t h e a c t u a l n e g o t i a t i o n s . 106/ L a l l , l o c . c i t . 107/ Re s e a r c h Backgrounder, passim. 108/ J o h n s t o n e , op. c i t . , p . 239. - 65 -Systemic V a r i a b l e s . One measure o f t h e e f f e c t o f t h i s s y s t e m i c v a r i a b l e w i l l be t h e e x t e n t t o which t h e p o l i c y makers t a k e i n t o a c c o u n t t h e s e s y s t e m i c a c t i o n s o r the a n t i c i p a t i o n o f the a c t i o n s , a t the expense of i n t e r n a l p r e s s u r e s when making d e c i s i o n s . The o t h e r w i l l be t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h t h e r e i s found a p a t t e r n i n t h e i n p u t - o u t p u t s e t s t h a t would i n d i c a t e a d e f i n i t e p a t t e r n e d r e s p o n s e t o t h e s y s t e m i c a c t i o n s . I t i s h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t t h e e f f e c t s of s y s t e m i c v a r i a b l e s w i l l be more marked i n Burma than i n I n d i a . In l o o k i n g a t t h e r o l e o f s y s t e m i c v a r i a b l e s i t must f i r s t be n o t e d t h a t Burma was s u b j e c t t o a much w i d e r range o f p o s s i b l e C h i n e s e a c t i o n s t h a n was I n d i a . There was an i m p o r t a n t C h i n e s e community i n Burma w i t h t i e s t o t h e homeland, t h e r e was a c t u a l and a n t i c i p a t e d C h i n e s e a i d t o i n s u r r e c t i o n i s t b o r d e r groups such as the Karens and t o the B.C.P. and t h e r e were Ch i n e s e i n c u r s i o n s i n t o Burmese t e r r i t o r y i n p u r s u i t of Kuomintang t r o o p s , b e s i d e s t h e i n c u r s i o n s d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o th e boundary d i s p u t e . I n d i a was s u b j e c t o n l y t o a c t i o n s d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d to the boundary d i s p u t e e x c e p t i n the m a r g i n a l case o f the Naga t r i b e s m e n i n N .E .F .A. ^ 9 / Systemic f a c t o r s have been most . i m p o r t a n t i n Burma's g e n e r a l C h i n a p o l i c y . W h i l e i n I n d i a , p o l i c i e s such as r e c o g n i t i i o n of C h i n a , s p o n s o r s h i p o f C h i n e s e U.N. Member-s h i p , and the F i v e P r i n c i p l e s have been j u s t i f i e d i n terms of r i g h t c o n d u c t , Burmese p o l i c y has been j u s t i f i e d i n terms o f a n t i c i p a t i o n 109/ The New York Times Index, 1961 and 1962. - 6 6 -o f h o s t i l e a c t i o n s . On December 3 f 1949 i n d i s c u s s i n g r e c o g n i -t i o n o f C h i n a , F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r E. Maung s a i d . We s h a l l have t o r e c o g n i z e t h e new government o f C h i n a v e r y soon. N o t h i n g has been d e c i d e d y e t , but i t i s a q u e s t i o n o f r e c o g n i z i n g f a c t s . . . t h e s e (border) r a i d s a r e l i k e l y t o change i n meaning...110/ On the same q u e s t i o n U Nu s p e c i f i c a l l y mentions h i s d i s r e g a r d f o r i n t e r n a l p r e s s u r e s In r e g a r d t o o u r f o r e i g n p o l i c y a l s o , we a r e c o n v i n c e d t h a t t h e c o u r s e we have adopted i s the b e s t i n the c i r c u m s t a n c e s o f o u r c o u n t r y and we a r e t h e r e f o r e p u r s u i n g i t s t e a d f a s t l y no m a t t e r how s t r o n g l y i t i s c r i t i c i z e d . 1 1 1 / D u r i n g t h e a c t u a l b o r d e r d i s p u t e , as s t a t e d above, s o c i e t a l p r e s s u r e s seem t o have been no g r e a t f o r c e and the c o n -c i l i a t o r y p o l i c y may not have been due s o l e l y t o i d i o s y n c r a t i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s as U Nu and Ne Win seem t o have f o l l o w e d t h e same g e n e r a l c o u r s e . Tang's acc o u n t o f one p a r t o f t h e p r o s e s s r e i n -f o r c e s t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t p o l i c y was g u i d e d by s y s t e m i c f a c t o r s As summarized i n Chou's J u l y 57 l e t t e r and i t s accompanying maps, P e k i n g r e p r e s e n t e d a d d i t i o n a l arguments i n c l a i m t o 18 6 square m i l e s i n Hpimaw- • Gawlum-Kangfang a r e a i n s t e a d o f t h e 56 square m i l e s o f f e r e d by Rangoon. S i m i l a r l y , the t e r r i -t o r y t o be exchanged f o r t h e Namwan T r a c t was extended t o i n c l u d e 8 6 square m i l e s w i t h i n the 1941 L i n e . W h i l e t h e Burmese Government o f f i c i a l l y d i s a l l o w e d t h e s e c l a i m s , i n October 1957, t h e C a b i n e t ' s F o r e i g n A f f a i r s Sub-Committee d e c i d e d t h a t i n the e v e n t of P e k i n g ' s r e j e c t i o n o f t h e p r e v i o u s l y s u b m i t t e d Burmese p r o p o s a l s , 110/ J o h n s t o n e , op. c i t . , p. 56. 111/ I b i d . , p. 57. 67 -new c o n d i t i o n s s h o u l d be acc e p t e d . a s t h e b a s i s f o r s e t t l e m e n t . 1 1 2 / I n t h e i n p u t - o u t p u t s t a t e s p r e s e n t e d on pages 48 t o 53 t h e i n p u t p a r t o f t h e s t a t e m e n t s i n d i c a t e t h e s y s t e m i c v a r i a b l e . One way o f o b t a i n i n g an i d e a of the e f f e c t o f t h e s e s y s t e m i c v a r i a b l e s would be t o see i f t h e r e e x i s t s any r e l a t i o n -s h i p between the p a t t e r n s o f i n p u t s and o u t p u t s . The n u l l hypo-t h e s i s i s t h a t t h e t y p e o f i n p u t i s n o t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e t y p e o f o u t p u t . E x t r a c t i n g the i n p u t - o u t p u t s t a t e s t h a t c o n t a i n o n l y p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e i n p u t s and o u t p u t s and g r o u p i n g c o n g r u e n t and non-congruent s t a t e s one o b t a i n s a m a t r i x f o r each o f t h e c o u n t r i e s as f o l l o w s T a b l e V I I I THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN INPUTS AND OUTPUTS IN INDIA AND BURMA BURMA INDIA Congruent Non-Congruent Congruent Non-Congruent S t a t e s S t a t e s S t a t e s S t a t e s 17 6 15 17 x 2 = 5.26 x 2 = .12 p = .05 p = N.S. T h i s would seem t o i n d i c a t e t h a t s y s t e m i c f a c t o r s a re v e r y i m p o r t a n t i n t h e Burmese case and n o t so i n the I n d i a n c a s e . 112/ Tang, op_. c i t . , p. 5 96 - 68 -• F l e x i b 1 1 i t y ; The s e r i e s o f p o l i c y outcomes were a l s o t o be coded i n terms of f l e x i b i l i t y - r i g i d i t y . F l e x i b i l i t y i s d e f i n e d as the a b i l i t y t o change from a p o s i t i v e t o a n e g a t i v e 113 / outcome o r from a n e g a t i v e t o a p o s i t i v e outcome. ' I n l o o k i n g a t t h e o v e r a l l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f outcomes a r i g i d s e r i e s would be d e f i n e d as a s e r i e s where the p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t t h e s e r i e s came from a p o p u l a t i o n o f outcomes w i t h an e q u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of p o s i -t i v e and n e g a t i v e u n i t s was l e s s t h a n .05. Burma had e l e v e n p o s i t i v e and f o u r t e e n n e g a t i v e outcomes. The p r o b a b i l i t y of t h i s s e r i e s coming from a p o p u l a t i o n w i t h e q u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n i s .345. I n d i a had t h i r t e e n p o s i t i v e r e s p o n s e s and twenty-seven n e g a t i v e r e s p o n s e s w i t h t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f coming from an e q u a l l y d i s t r i -b uted p o p u l a t i o n o f .032. A n o t h e r i n d i c a t i o n o f f l e x i b i l i t y - r i g i d i t y i s t h e number of a c t u a l c o n c e s s i o n s from p r e v i o u s l y h e l d p o s i t i o n s and t h e number of r e i t e r a t i o n s o f p r e v i o u s r e s p o n s e s . To g e t a t t h i s , I have e x t r a c t e d from the outcomes l i s t e d i n A p p e n d i c e s A and B t h o s e s tatements t h a t a r e l i n k e d t o p r e v i o u s l y made statements e i t h e r because t h e y r e p r e s e n t p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e d e v i a t i o n s from the f i r s t s t a tement o r a r e r e i t e r a t i o n s of p r e v i o u s l y made'statements. These s t a t e m e n t s were t h e n coded e i t h e r as a change o r a r e i t e r a t i o n and t h e r e s u l t s r e p o r t e d i n T a b l e IX. 113/ A t r e a t m e n t of r i g i d i t y i n a p o s i t i v e d i r e c t i o n i s found i n S c o t t , op. c i t . T a b l e IX FLEXIBILITY AND RIGID! BURMA Time Change o r R e i t e r a t i o n 4 + C 10 R 11 R 13 + C 16 R 17 R 18 R 20 R 21, R 22 R 23 + C IN INDIA AND BURMA INDIA Time Change o r R e i t e r a t i o n 2 R 4 R 5e + C 6f R 6g R 7a R 7b R 7c R 7e + C 7f R 11 R 12 R 14 R 15 + C 16 R 18 R 19a R 20a R 23b R There i s a g a i n some i n d i c a t i o n o f more f l e x i b i l i t y on the p a r t o f Burma as t h e same number of changes, t h r e e , appear i n a s e r i e s o f e l e v e n outcomes as opposed t o I n d i a ' s n i n e t e e n outcomes. The d i f f e r e n c e i s much more s t r i k i n g i f one l o o k s a t t h e s p e c i f i c o u t p u t s . A l l t h e Burmese c o n c e s s i o n s were on major s u b s t a n t i v e i s s u e s . That i n time p e r i o d 4, a c c e p t e d the 1941 L i n e as an i n t e r i m l i n e o n l y . In time p e r i o d 13 t h e Hpimaw ar e a was g i v e n up, and i n time p e r i o d 23 t h e Panghang a r e a was g i v e n up. A l l o f I n d i a ' s c o n c e s s i o n s were p r o c e d u r a l and o n l y t h e f i r s t two would 70 -be c o n s i d e r e d o f any i m p o r t a n c e . The o u t p u t from time p e r i o d 5e was the a c c e p t a n c e o f t a l k s and t h a t from 7e was concerned w i t h the same i s s u e . The o u t p u t from t i m e p e r i o d 15 was t h e a c c e p t a n c e t h a t t h e r e e x i s t e d a l e g i t m a t e d i f f e r e n c e o f o p i n i o n o v e r a t r a n s l a t i o n o f a s e c t i o n o f the R e p o r t o f O f f i c i a l s . Burma's s e r i e s o f o u t p u t s w i l l t h e r e f o r e be c l a s s e d as f l e x i b l e and I n d i a ' s as r i g i d . Consequences: The consequences o f t h e s e o u t p u t s i s the l i n k a g e of sub-system t o system. I t i s t h r o u g h t h i s l i n k a g e t h a t the work of f o r e i g n p o l i c y a n a l y s t s can be l i n k e d t o such s y s t e m i c c o n c e p t s as i n t e g r a t i o n , c o n f l i c t , s t a b i l i t y and e q u i l i b r i u m . I n t h i s paper an attempt i s made t o l i n k t he f o r e g o i n g s t u d y of f o r e i g n p o l i c y making w i t h some c o n c e p t s from t h e work on n e g o t i -a t i n g b e h a v i o u r and c o n f l i c t . The consequences o f s u b - s y s t e m i c o u t p u t s have been d e f i n e d as the s u c c e s s o r f a i l u r e o f n e g o t i a t i o n . N e g o t i a t i o n i s d e f i n e d a s : ...the p r o c e s s o f c o n s i d e r a t i o n of an i n t e r n a t i o n a l d i s p u t e o r s i t u a t i o n by p e a c e f u l means, o t h e r t h a n j u d i c i a l or a r b i t r a l p r o c e s s e s , w i t h a v i e w t o promoting o r r e a c h i n g among t h e p a r t i e s concerned or i n t e r e s t e d some u n d e r s t a n d i n g , a m e l i o r a t i o n , a d j u s t m e n t s , o r s e t t l e m e n t o f t h e d i s p u t e o r s i t u a t i o n . 1 ! 4 / S u c c e s s f u l n e g o t i a t i o n s a r e t h o s e l e a d i n g t o a m e l i o r a -t i o n o r s e t t l e m e n t o f t h e d i s p u t e w h i l e u n s u c c e s s f u l n e g o t i a t i o n s a r e those l e a d i n g t o a r e s o r t t o o t h e r t h a n p e a c e f u l p r o c e s s e s . 114/ L a l l , op. e f t . , p. 5. - 7 1 -The exchanges between I n d i a and C h i n a and between Burma and C h i n a c o u l d then be seen as forms o f n e g o t i a t i o n s , a l t h o u g h f o r many p a r t s o f t h e p r o c e s s e s such as Chou's A p r i l 196 0 v i s i t t o D e l h i o r t h e meeting o f Chou and Nu i n Kunming i n 1957 t h e r e i s not much i n f o r m a t i o n . The consequences o f t h e Burmese o u t p u t s were t o b r i n g about t h e s u c c e s s f u l c o n c l u s i o n of n e g o t i a t i o n s i n the 196 0 Boundary T r e a t y . The consequences of t h e I n d i a n o u t p u t s were t o b r i n g a r e s o r t t o o t h e r than p e a c e f u l means i n October 1962. These outcomes t h a t l e d t o such d i f f e r e n t consequences were p r e c i p i t a t e d by d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f p r o c e s s e s t h a t i n t u r n were l i n k e d t o d i f f e r e n t n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s and d i f f e r e n t i s s u e a r e a s . What seem t o have been the most s t r i k i n g d i f f e r e n c e s i n the s i t u a t i o n s concerned the g r e a t d i s p a r i t y i n s i z e , t h e change of i s s u e a r e a i n I n d i a and the absence o f t h i s change i n Burma, and t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f s y s t e m i c f a c t o r s i n Burma and t h e i r r e l a t i v e impotency i n I n d i a . The r a t i o n a l e f o r t h e s e l i n k a g e s between n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s , i s s u e a r e a s , p r o c e s s , and consequences w i l l be d i s -c u s s e d w i t h r e f e r e n c e s " t o some of t h e m i c r o s o c i o l o g i c a l e x p e r i -ments o f Morton D e u t s c h and the c o n c e p t o f r e s p o n s i v e n e s s as - 7 2 -d e v e l o p e d by K a r l W. D e u t s c h and Dean G. P r u i t t , ' and t h e i r p a r a l l e l c o n c e p t s o f " s u c c e s s f u l n e g o t i a t i o n s " and " e f f e c t i v e communications", and " t h r e a t p o t e n t i a l " and " f a t e c o n t r o l " . D i s p a r i t y i n S i z e . The n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s i z e has p r e v i o u s l y been l i n k e d t o the c o n c e p t o f power. The p o s s i b l e l i n k between power o r s i z e and the consequences f o r n e g o t i a t i o n s f o u n d here has an i n t e r e s t i n g p a r a l l e l . I n an e x p e r i m e n t a l s tudy o f t h e e f f e c t o f " t h r e a t p o t e n t i a l s " on t h e b e h a v i o u r of b a r g a i n e r s a t t h e i n t e r p e r s o n a l l e v e l , Morton D e u t s c h came t o s e v e r a l c o n c l u s i o n s t h a t a r e analogous t o t h e c o n c l u s i o n s t h a t c o u l d be drawn from t h i s d i s c u s s i o n o f b a r g a i n i n g a t t h e i n t e r -n a t i o n a l l e v e l . He found t h a t i n terms of d e f i n e d g o a l s and l o s s e s b o t h p a r t i e s d i d w o r s t i n the case o f a b i l a t e r a l t h r e a t w h i c h would a p p r o x i m a t e t h e S i n o - I n d i a n c a s e . In the case of u n i l a t e r a l t h r e a t t h e a c t o r p o s s e s s i n g the t h r e a t d i d b e t t e r t h a n the o t h e r a c t o r b u t the l a t t e r s t i l l d i d b e t t e r t h a n he had i n t h e c a s e o f b i l a t e r a l t h r e a t . I n t h e boundary d i s p u t e s i f t h e s u c c e s s o f n e g o t i a t i o n s o r t h e a v o i d a n c e o f v i o l e n c e i s h e l d t o 115/ Morton D e u t s c h , " B a r g a i n i n g , T h r e a t and Communication: Some E x p e r i m e n t a l S t u d i e s " i n K a t h l e e n A r c h i b a l d ( e d . ) , S t r a t e g i c  I n t e r a c t i o n and C o n f l i c t , ( U n i v e r s i t y , of C a l i f o r n i a , B e r k e l e y : I n s t i t u t e o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t u d i e s , 1966), pp. 19-40. K a r l W. D e u t s c h , The Nerves o f Government, New York: The F r e e P r e s s , 1966, p. 23 0. Dean G. P r u i t t , "An A n a l y s i s o f R e s p o n s i v e n e s s Between N a t i o n s " J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n , V o l . V I , No. 1, p. 5-18. - 73 -be t h e p r i m a r y v a l u e t h e c o n c l u s i o n s about l o s s e s and g a i n s would be s i m i l a r , as most o b s e r v e r s f e e l t h a t t h e Sino-Burmese n e g o t i a -t i o n s d i d c o n s t i t u t e something c l o s e t o Deutsch's " e f f e c t i v e communication": I t would seem t h a t P e k i n g , i n t h i s n e g o t i a t i o n , . though b a r g a i n i n g , h a r d and i n s i s t i n g on some c o n c e s s i o n s , responded f o r i t s p a r t by making c o n c e s s i o n s t o t h e Burmese and f i n a l l y a r r i v e d a t a m u t u a l l y a c c e p t a b l e arrangement t h a t d i d no t bear t h e c l e a r marks o f overweening C h i n e s e power.116/ Change i n Is s u e A r e a . I n the same s t u d y , t h r o u g h a s e r i e s o f m a n i p u l a t i o n s D e u t s c h i n t r o d u c e d v a l u e s o t h e r t h a n the s i m p l e l o s s o r g a i n d e f i n e d i n d o l l a r terms. He found t h a t t h e b a r g a i n e r s were t h e n l e s s i n c l i n e d toward e f f e c t i v e communication (communication t h a t enhanced the d o l l a r g a i n s of b o t h a c t o r s ) . I f t h e change i n i s s u e a r e a i n the S i n o - I n d i a n case were c o n s i d e r e d a n a l o g o u s t o De u t s c h ' s i n t r o d u c t i o n of o t h e r v a l u e s and t h e a v o i d -ance o f v i o l e n c e a g a i n h e l d t o be t h e p r i m a r y v a l u e t h e same c o n c l u s i o n would be r e a c h e d . Systemic V a r i a b l e ; F l e x i b i l i t y , and R e s p o n s i v e n e s s . The conc e p t r e s p o n s i v e n e s s has been d e f i n e d by D e u t s c h a s : ...the p r o b a b i l i t y o f " f a v o r a b l e " o r adequate re s p o n s e w i t h i n a r e l e v a n t t i m e , where f a v o u r a b l e , adequate and r e l e v a n c e can be d e f i n e d i n terms of e m p i r i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e system under study.117/ 116/ A r t h u r L a l l . How Communist C h i n a N e g o t i a t e s , New York: C olumbia U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1968. p. 188. T h i s a u t h o r n o t e s s i m i l a r p a t t e r n s i n C h i n e s e n e g o t i a t i o n s w i t h s m a l l e r A s i a n s t a t e s . 117/ K a r l W. D e u t s c h , op. c i t . , p. IX. - 74 -f u r t h e r d e f i n e s i t as ...the a b i l i t y (of one p o l i t i c a l u n i t ) t o g i v e messages from o t h e r p o l i t i c a l u n i t s adequate we i g h t i n the making of t h e i r own d e c i s i o n s , t o p e r c e i v e t h e needs of t h e p o p u l a t i o n s and e l i t e s o f t h e s e o t h e r u n i t s , and t o respond t o them q u i c k l y and a d e q u a t e l y i n terms of p o l i -t i c a l or economic a c t i o n . 1 1 8 / One measurement o f t h i s c o n c e p t would be v e r y much l i k e t h e measurement of t h e a s s o c i a t i o n o f t h e s y s t e m i c v a r i a b l e w i t h o u t p u t s used e a r l i e r i n the paper. Both n o t i o n s a r e r e l a t e d t o 119/ t h e c y b e r n e t i c problem of "the b l a c k box". ' U s i n g the r e l a -t i o n s h i p between s y s t e m i c v a r i a b l e and o u t p u t s as a measurement o f r e s p o n s i v e n e s s , t h e "adequate l e v e l " o f response c o u l d be d e f i n e d as t h e e x i s t e n c e o f more t h a n a chance r e l a t i o n s h i p be-tween i n p u t s and o u t p u t s and u s i n g the c o n c l u s i o n s on s y s t e m i c d a t a , Burma would be c l a s s i f i e d as r e s p o n s i v e and I n d i a as u n r e s p o n s i v e . I n t h i s case a l s o the Burmese o u t p u t s would seem t o c o n t a i n the added d i m e n s i o n of " f a v o u r a b l e n e s s " s p e c i f i e d i n D e u t sch's and P r u i t t ' s d e f i n i t i o n s . Working from h i s d e f i n i t i o n o f r e s p o n s i v e n e s s , P r u i t t comes up w i t h a number of hypotheses about t h e t y p i c a l n e g o t i a t i n g b e h a v i o u r o f a r e s p o n s i v e n a t i o n t h a t seem w e l l i n l i n e w i t h t h e n e g o t i a t i n g , b e h a v i o u r o f Burma and t h a t a c c o u n t w e l l f o r t h e 118/ P r u i t t , 0£. c i t . , p. 5. 119/ Ashby, Op_. e x t . , pp. 8-6-0.17. The measurement of t h e a s s o c i a t i o n between s y s t e m i c v a r i a b l e and o u t p u t s and "the. b l a c k box" problem make no s p e c i f i c a t i o n s about f a v o u r a b l e n e s s however. - 7 5 -d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e consequences between the I n d i a n and Burmese s i t u a t i o n s . H i s f i r s t h y p o t h e s i s was t h a t : a) The more r e s p o n s i v e a n e g o t i a t o r t h e more w i l l i n g he w i l l be t o make c o s t l y c o n c e s s i o n s t o t h e o t h e r s i d e . T h i s i m p l i e s i n t u r n t h a t a more r e s p o n s i v e n e g o t i a t o r w i l l u s u a l l y have a f a l l - b a c k p o s i t i o n w h i c h i s l e s s f a v o u r a b l e t o h i m s e l f . 1 2 0 / That Burma was more l i k e l y t h a n I n d i a t o make c o n c e s s i o n s and t h a t t h e s e c o n c e s s i o n s were u s u a l l y more c o s t l y t h a n those made by I n d i a was e v i d e n c e d by t h e d a t a p r e s e n t e d i n the s e c t i o n on f l e x i b i l i t y and r i g i d i t y . These c o n c e s s i o n s and d e s c r i p t i o n s of Burmese n e g o t i a t i n g b e h a v i o u r such as Tang's: W h i l e the Burmese Government o f f i c i a l l y d i s -a l l o w e d t h e s e c l a i m s , i n October 1957 t h e C a b i n e t ' s F o r e i g n A f f a i r s Sub-Committee d e c i d e d t h a t i n t h e e v e n t o f P e k i n g ' s r e j e c t i o n of the p r e v i o u s l y s u b m i t t e d Burmese p r o p o s a l s , new c o n d i t i o n s s h o u l d be a c c e p t e d as t h e b a s i s f o r s e t t l e m e n t . 1 2 1 / i n d i c a t e the e x i s t e n c e of f a l l - b a c k p o s i t i o n s , b) The more r e s p o n s i v e a n e g o t i a t o r , the l e s s f i r m l y w i l l he adhere t o h i s Own p r o p o s a l s when t h e y have been r e j e c t e d by the o t h e r s i d e . T h i s h y p o t h e s i s i s a l s o d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o t h e n o t i o n of f l e x i b i l i t y . A d h e r i n g " t o h i s own p r o p o s a l s a f t e r t h e y have been r e j e c t e d by the o t h e r s i d e " i s analogous t o t h e r e i t e r a t i o n o f o u t p u t s used above i n d e f i n i n g f l e x i b i l i t y r i g i d i t y . A g a i n Burma the most r e s p o n s i v e n a t i o n was l e s s l i k e l y t o r e i t e r a t e 120/ P r u i t t , op_. C i t . , p. 16. 121/ Tang/ op. c i t . , p. 596. - 7 6 -p r o p o s a l s - t h a n was I n d i a . The r e i t e r a t i o n of p r e v i o u s p o s i t i o n s , was a s t r i k i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of t h e S i n o - I n d i a n exchange. An o t h e r h y p o t h e s i s was: The assumption t h a t r e s p o n s i v e n e s s causes g r e a t e r w i l l i n g n e s s t o abandon p r o p o s a l s t h a t a r e r e j e c t e d by t h e o t h e r p a r t y i m p l i e s t h a t n e g o t i a -t i o n s w i l l p r o c e e d more r a p i d l y and w i t h l e s s c o n f l i c t t h e more r e s p o n s i v e a r e the n e g o t i a t o r s t o one a n o t h e r .-'-22/ T h i s h y p o t h e s i s i s i n e f f e c t a r e s t a t e m e n t o f the l i n k -age between o u t p u t s and consequences as d e f i n e d i n t h i s paper, t h a t a f l e x i b l e s e r i e s o f o u t p u t s , t y p i c a l o f t h e r e s p o n s i v e n a t i o n w i l l t e n d t o r e s u l t i n s u c c e s s f u l n e g o t i a t i o n s and i n l e s s c o n f l i c t w i t h i n the system and t h a t the more r i g i d s e r i e s o f outcomes, t y p i c a l of t h e u n r e s p o n s i v e , w i l l t end t o r e s u l t i n u n s u c c e s s f u l n e g o t i a t i o n s and more c o n f l i c t w i t h i n t h e system. P r u i t t t h e n i n t r o d u c e s the concept o f f a t e c o n t r o l which he d e f i n e s as t h e a b i l i t y of a p l a y e r t o ...move the o t h e r p l a y e r ' s reward - c o s t p o s i t i o n t o a new p o s i t i o n . The g r e a t e r the range of v a l u e s t h r o u g h w h i c h he can move t h e o t h e r , t h e . g r e a t e r h i s f a t e c o n t r o l o ver the o t h e r . 1 2 3 / He t h e n h y p o t h e s i z e s : When one s i d e ' s f a t e c o n t r o l c a u s e s the o t h e r t o be more r e s p o n s i v e , t h e f i r s t s i d e need r e l y l e s s i n naked t h r e a t s - o r p r o m i s e s t o g e t what he wants. T h i s i n t u r n may cause t h e n e g o t i a t i o n s t o proceed more r a p i d l y w i t h l e s s chance o f f a i l u r e . . . 1 2 4 / 122/ P r u i t t , 0£. c i t . , p. 16. 123/ I b i d . , p. 13. 124/ I b i d . , p. 16. - 77 -W i t h a l m o s t any o p e r a t i o n a l d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e t e r m f a t e c o n t r o l C h i n a would be found t o have more f a t e c o n t r o l o v e r Burma t h a n o v e r I n d i a . . The knowledge o f t h i s was a major f a c t o r i n t h e p o l i c y making o f b o t h Burma and I n d i a . The h y p o t h e s i s i s based on the a s s u m p t i o n t h a t the use of t h r e a t s t e n d s t o l e s s e n t h e l i k e l i h o o d o f s u c c e s s f u l n e g o t i a t i o n s . The use of t h r e a t s c o u l d be assumed t o e n l a r g e t h e i s s u e from the s i t u a t i o n a t hand, here t h e d i s p u t e d t e r r i t o r y , t o i s s u e s t h a t a r e l e s s e a s y t o n e g o t i a t e , i s s u e s of s t a t u s , n a t i o n a l p r i d e , f a i r p l a y and r i g h t c o n d u c t , as happened i n t h e S i n o - I n d i a n c a s e . The more i n t e r e s t i n g c o n t r a s t s r e s u l t i n g f r om th e q u e s t i o n of d i f f e r e n t consequences t o t h e system a r o s e n o t as much from t h e d i f f e r e n c e s i n s i z e , " t h r e a t p o t e n t i a l " , o r f a t e c o n t r o l as from t h e d i f f e r e n c e s i n i s s u e a r e a s and p r o c e s s e s t h a t seem t o be r e s p o n -s i b l e f o r t h e s e consequences. S i z e need n o t be viewed h e r e as the independent v a r i a b l e . I n f a c t the model changes f o c u s i n the l a t t e r p a r t of the a n a l y s i s w i t h what seem t o be t h e more u s e f u l c o n c e p t s , p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e s , becoming the i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . C o n c l u s i o n s ; A model o r " p r e - t h e o r y " may be e v a l u a t e d u s i n g c r i t e r i a some o f w h i c h a r e : a) the a b i l i t y o f t h e model t o f o c u s on e m p i r i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t q u e s t i o n s and c o m p a r i s o n s , b) the o r g a n i z i n g power of t h e model, 78 -c) the ease o f d e f i n i t i o n w i t h i n the model and, d) t h e model's o r i g i n a l i t y . T h i s e x p l o r a t o r y two-case s t u d y would seem t o i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e method o f d i s t i n g u i s h i n g between c o u n t r i e s p r o v i d e d by the p r e - t h e o r y i s a f r u i t f u l one. I n t h i s case s t u d y Rosenau's scheme f o c u s s e d a t t e n t i o n upon some c l e a r l y i d e n t i f i a b l e d i f f e r e n c e s i n p r o c e s s , o u t p u t s and consequences. The model o r g a n i z e s e x i s t i n g knowledge on a t l e a s t two l e v e l s . The p r e - t h e o r y as m o d i f i e d here and as Rosenau s u g g e s t s 125/ i t s h o u l d ' b r i n g s w i t h i n a s i n g l e framework, work done a t b o t h the s y s t e m i c and s u b s y s t e m i c l e v e l s . The c o n c e p t s n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s and p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e s and t h e i r l i n k a g e s i n c l u d e many o f the v a r i a b l e s t h a t c o u l d be found i n t r a d i t i o n a l f o r e i g n p o l i c y a n a l y s i s and a l s o attempt t h e i r s y s t e m a t i z a t i o n . I t i s t h i s i n c l u s i v e n e s s , however, t h a t l e a d s t o the problem o f . d e f i n i t i o n w i t h i n the model. As s t a t e d e a r l i e r , i n a case s t u d y i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o choose o n l y one o r two a s p e c t s o f a p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e f o r s t u d y . T h i s problem makes the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of a number of comparable s t u d i e s and measures o f p o t e n c y more d i f f i c u l t . Problems a r e e n c o u n t e r e d when the model i s a p p l i e d a t d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s of systems. T h i s case s t u d y was concerned w i t h a c l u s t e r o f n a t i o n s b o r d e r i n g upon each o t h e r and r e l a t i v e s i z e p l a y e d an i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n the a n a l y s i s . In l o o k i n g a t the g l o b a l 125/ Rosenau, op_. c i t . , p. 47. - 79 -system, however, s i z e i n an a b s o l u t e sense would be t h e r e l e v a n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c w i t h a consequent d i f f e r e n t s e t o f c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s and method o f a n a l y s i s . T h i s a s p e c t of t h e model a l s o p r e s e n t s t h e problem of t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f a t t r i b u t e s . Here I have t a k e n s i z e t o be a n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e . When a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e power c o n f i g u r a t i o n i n the system i t may a l s o be c o n s i d e r e d an a t t r i b u t e o f t h e system. The o r i g i n a l i t y o f a model has been d e f i n e d as b e i n g " i t s i m p r o b a b i l i t y w i t h i n the ensemble of p o s s i b l e models a t a 126/ g i v e n time and p l a c e . " ' With t h e o f t e n commented upon gap between 127/ f o r e i g n p o l i c y a n a l y s t s and s y s t e m i c a n a l y s i s , ' the impro-b a b i l i t y o f a model d e r i v i n g i t s s t r e n g t h from t h e l i n k a g e s between the f i e l d s was f a i r l y h i g h . 126/ D e u s t c h , op_. c i t . , p. 18 127/ See e s p e c i a l l y : J . 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T r a g e r , Frank N. Burma from Kingdom t o R e p u b l i c , New York: F r e d e r i c k A. P r a e g e r , 1966. Ve r b a , S i d n e y . "Assumptions o f R a t i o n a l i t y and N o n - r a t i o n a l i t y i n Models o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l System" i n K l a u s K n o r r and S i d n e y V e r b a , (eds.) The I n t e r n a t i o n a l System, pp. 93-117. W a l i n s k y , L o u i s J . Economic Development o f Burma, 1951-60. New York: The T w e n t i e t h C e n t u r y Fund, 1962. . "The R i s e and F a l l o f U Nu", P a c i f i c A f f a i r s , F a l l & W i n t e r , 1965-66, pp 269-281. Whittam, Daphne E., "The Sino-Burmese T r e a t y " , P a c i f i c A f f a i r s , . Summer 1961, pp. 174-184. - 86 -. . HANDBOOKS. AND INDICES .Asian R e c o r d e r . Banks, A r t h u r S., and R o b e r t B. Te x t o r . • A C r o s s - P o l i t y Survey. Cambridge, Mass.: M.I.T. P r e s s , 196.3. B r i t a n n i c a Book of t h e Ye a r , 1955-1962. F a c t s on F i l e , 195 5-196 2. The I n t e r n a t i o n a l Year Book, and •Statesmen's Who's Who. 1956 and 1960 . K e e s i n g ' s Contemporary A r c h i v e s . 1955-1962. M a l l o r y , W a l t e r H., ( e d . ) . P o l i t i c a l Handbook o f t h e World. New York: Harper B r o t h e r s , 1956 and 1960. The New York Times Index. 1955-1962. R u s s e t t , . B r u c e M., e t a l . World Handbook of P o l i t i c a l and S o c i a l  I n d i c a t o r s . New Haven: Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1964. GOVERNMENT PUBLICATIONS Burma. Towards Peace and Democracy. Rangoon: M i n i s t r y o f Inform a t i o n > 1949. C h i n a . Documents on the S i n o - I n d i a n Boundary Q u e s t i o n . P e k i n g : F o r e i g n Language P r e s s , 1960. I n d i a . J a w a h a r l a l Nehru on I n d i a - C h i n a R e l a t i o n s . J a w a h a r l a l Nehru's Speeches: 1959-1963. N o t e s , Memoranda and L e t t e r s Exchanged Between I n d i a and  C h i n a . V. 1 and V. 3-10. Prime M i n i s t e r on S i n o - I n d i a n R e l a t i o n s . 1962. APPENDIX A INPUTS AND OUTPUTS FOR BURMA ACTUAL . TIME TIME INPUTS PERIOD OUTPUTS 1949 1954 1955 Nov. 19 55* Dec. 1956 1956 1956 1956 1956 Oct. 1956 Oct. 1956 Oct. 1956 Oct. 1956 Oct. 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 No s p e c i f i c i n p u t . The coming t o power o f t h e Communist regime. J o i n t communique e x p r e s s i n g t h e need f o r a p e a c e f u l b o r d e r s e t t l e -ment. C h i n e s e c l a i m p a r t o f Wa S t a t e R e j e c t 19 41 L i n e as an i l l e g a l l i n e R e j e c t p r o p o s a l f o r w i t h d r a w a l t o 1941 L i n e and c l a i m p a r t o f K a c h i n S t a t e n o r t h 25°. Propose t h e s e t t i n g up o f a commission. Propose w i t h d r a w a l t o t h e 1941 L i n e , the McMahon L i n e , and t h e Irrawaddy-Salween w a t e r s h e d i f t h e Burmese do n o t reoccupy t h e Hpimaw a r e a . Agree t o meet. C h i n e s e c l a i m b o r d e r s h o u l d be e a s t o f t h e McMahon L i n e . C h i n e s e a c c e p t 1941 L i n e as p a r t o f a g e n e r a l s e t t l e m e n t C h i n e s e a c c e p t t h e Irrawaddy-Salween watershed C h i n e s e a c c e p t t h e " t r a d i t i o n a l customary" L i n e w h i c h t h e Burmese t a k e t o be t h e McMahon L i n e . C h i n e s e c l a i m t h e Hpimaw a r e a . CO CO A r e q u e s t f o r a b o r d e r s e t t l e m e n t . J o i n t communique e x p r e s s i n g t h e need f o r a p e a c e f u l b o r d e r s e t t l e m e n t . Demand w i t h d r a w a l o f C h i n e s e t r o o p s t o t h e 19 41 l i n e . Suggest w i t h d r a w a l t o t h e 1941 l i n e as an i n t e r i m measure u n t i l a s e t t l e m e n t r e a c h e d . P r o t e s t and r e j e c t C h i n e s e c l a i m s . R e j e c t b u t propose a meetin g o f go v e r n -ments i n s t e a d . A c c e p t p r o p o s a l . Agree t o meet. Burmese r e j e c t t h i s and c l a i m r e s p e c t f o r B r i t i s h l i n e s . Burmese demand a c c e p t a n c e o f Irrwaddy-Salween watershed a l s o . Burmese demand a c c e p t a n c e of t h e McMahon L i n e . Burmese g i v e up the Namwan T r a c t i n r e t u r n f o r t h e C h i n e s e a c c e p t a n c e o f B r i t i s h l i n e s . Burmese a c c e p t t h i s c l a i m . ACTUAL TIME TIME INPUTS PERIOD OUTPUTS 1956 Dec. 14 1957 Mar. 15 1957 Mar. 16 1957 17 1957 1957 1957 Mar. J u l . J u l . 18 19 20 1958 J a n . 21 1958 J a n . 22 1959 J u n . 23 1959 Sept.' ' 24 1960 J a n . 25 Chi n e s e g i v e up t h e Namwan T r a c t f o r the Hpimaw a r e a . C h i n e s e c l a i m t h e a r e a i n h a b i t e d by the Panghang and Panglao t r i b e s . C h i n e s e " t r a d i t i o n a l customary" l i n e a c c e p t e d i n 1956 i s not t h e same as the McMahon L i n e . (See p e r i o d 1 4 . ) . Chin e s e would g i v e up m i n i n g r i g h t s i n L u f a n g a r e a i n r e t u r n f o r a c c e p t -ance o f " t r a d i t i o n a l customary" l i n e . C h i n e s e c l a i m 186 s q . m i . a t Hpimaw. Same as above C h i n e s e e x t e n d c l a i m i n Panghang a r e a t o 86 sq. m i . C h i n e s e a c c e p t the watershed p r i n -c i p l e i n s u b s t a n c e b u t s t a t e t h e r e must be e x c e p t i o n s f o r m o n a s t e r i e s and herb g r o w i n g a r e a s . C h i n e s e c l a i m 86 s q . mi. i n t h e Panghang d i s t r i c t . No s p e c i f i c i n p u t P e k i n g a c c e p t s June o f f e r and proposes d e t a i l e d n e g o t i a t i o n s . S i g n Boundary Agreement. Burmese a c c e p t t h i s and o f f e r 56 s q . mi. i n t h e Hpimaw a r e a . Burmese r e j e c t t h i s c l a i m . Burmese r e j e c t t h i s c l a i m and i n s i s t upon t h e w a t e r s h e d p r i n c i p l e . Burmese r e j e c t p r o p o s a l . Burmese r e j e c t c l a i m . Same as above. Burmese r e j e c t c l a i m Burmese r e j e c t and s t a t e t h a t t h e r e must be no e x c e p t i o n s . Burmese r e j e c t c l a i m . Burmese o f f e r 62 s q . mi. i n the Panghang a r e a . Burmese a c c e p t . S i g n Boundary Agreement. APPENDIX B INPUTS AND OUTPUTS FOR INDIA ACTUAL TIME TIME INPUTS PERIOD OUTPUTS 1958 Dec. 14 1959 Mar. 1959 Sept. 22 26 1959 Nov. 4 1959 Nov. 16 19 58 Nov. 3 C h i n e s e ask f o r a b o r d e r s e t t l e m e n t 19 59 J a n . 23 Ask f o r a meeting t o d i s c u s s b o r d e r problems. 19 59 Se p t . 8 a. C l a i m b o r d e r i s n o t d e l i m i t e d and make c l a i m t o " t r a d i t i o n a l customary" C h i n e s e p o r t i o n . b. Ask f o r n e g o t i a t i o n s . c. No s p e c i f i c i n p u t . 1959 O c t . 25. C l a i m Kongka Pass a r e a i n t h e M i d d l e S e c t o r . 1959 Nov. 27 a. Propose w i t h d r a w a l o f 20 k i l . from McMahon L i n e . b. Propose w i t h d r a w a l o f 20 k i l . from l i n e o f a c t u a l c o n t r o l i n Western S e c t o r . c. No s p e c i f i c i n p u t d. No s p e c i f i c i n p u t . e. Propose t a l k s . D e c l a r e b o r d e r s a r e d e l i m i t e d and r e j e c t r e q u e s t f o r s e t t l e m e n t . R e j e c t p r o p o s a l f o r meeting a. Lay c l a i m t o d i s p u t e d a r e a t h r o u g h l e g a l arguments. b. R e j e c t p r o p o s a l f o r n e g o t i a t i o n s . c. Make a p r o p o s a l f o r w i t h d r a w a l from and t a l k s over Tamaden. R e j e c t C h i n e s e c l a i m and make a c o u n t e r -c l a i m . a. R e j e c t p r o p o s a l . b. R e j e c t p r o p o s a l . c. Make p r o p o s a l t h a t t h e r e be no p a t r o l s d. Make p r o p o s a l t o v a c a t e L o n g j u . e. A c c e p t t a l k s i f C h i n e s e withdraw t o l i n e on I n d i a n maps and I n d i a n s t o l i n e on Ch i n e s e maps. ACTUAL TIME TIME INPUTS PERIOD OUTPUTS 1959 Dec. 21 1960 Feb. 5&6 No p u t p u t 8 1959 Dec. 17 a. Propose 20 k i l . w i t h d r a w a l a g a i n . b. A c c e p t I n d i a ' s L o n g j u p r o p o s a l c. Make p r o p o s a l t o e x t e n d t h e L o n g j u p r o p o s a l t o a l l o f t h e E a s t e r n S e c t o r . d. A c c e p t p r o p o s a l f o r no p a t r o l s e. R e j e c t Ladakh p r o p o s a l . f. R e i t e r a t e c l a i m s g. Propose Dec. 26 t a l k s between Prime M i n i s t e r s . 1959 Dec. 26 a. R e i t e r a t e C h i n e s e c l a i m s b. Propose 20 k i l . w i t h d r a w a l a g a i n . c. Propose n e g o t i a t i o n s . d. O f f e r t o r e s p e c t McMahon L i n e e. No s p e c i f i c i n p u t f. No s p e c i f i c i n p u t . 1960 A p r i l 3 a. R e i t e r a t e c l a i m s . b. Propose 20 k i l . w i t h d r a w a l a g a i n . c. R e j e c t I n d i a n Ladakh p r o p o s a l . a. No s p e c i f i c o u t p u t . b. A c c e p t . c. No s p e c i f i c o u t p u t . d. A c c e p t . e. No s p e c i f i c o u t p u t . f . R e i t e r a t e c l a i m s . g. R e j e c t p r o p o s a l f o r t a l k s . a. R e j e c t C h i n e s e c l a i m s and r e i t e r a t e I n d i a n c l a i m s . b. R e j e c t w i t h d r a w a l p r o p o s a l . c. R e j e c t r e q u e s t f o r n e g o t i a t i o n s . d. No s p e c i f i c o u t p u t . e. Propose t a l k s between Prime M i n i s t e r s i n New D e l h i i n March. f. Propose w i t h d r a w a l as i n p e r i o d 5e. a. No s p e c i f i c o u t p u t s . b. No s p e c i f i c o u t p u t . c. No s p e c i f i c o u t p u t . ACTUAL TIME INPUTS OUTPUTS TIME PERIOD 1960 March & A p r i l 9 a. Meet a t New D e l h i a. Meet a t New D e l h i b. No agreement c. Agree t o s e t up Commission b. No agreement on s u b s t a n t i v e problems c. Agree t o s e t up Commission 1960 Dec. 30 10 S i g n the Sino-Burmese Agreement P r o t e s t 1961 March 30 11 1961 Feb. 21 R e j e c t Dec. 30 p r o t e s t . P r o t e s t a g a i n . 1961 June 16 12 1961 May 4 R e j e c t Mar. 30 p r o t e s t . P r o t e s t a g a i n . 1961 June 15 13 I s s u e an E n g l i s h t r a n s l a t i o n o f t h e Re p o r t o f O f f i c i a l s . R e j e c t t r a n s l a t i o n 1961 Sept. 19 14 1961 Aug. 6 R e j e c t June 16 p r o t e s t P r o t e s t a g a i n and accuse o f a g g r e s s i o n . 1961 Sept. 28 15 1961 Sept. 13 R e j e c t June 15 p r o t e s t . R e c o g n i z e t h a t t h e r e i s a l e g i t i m a t e d i f f e r e n c e o f o p i n i o n . 1962 May 31 16 1961 Nov. 20 R e j e c t S e pt. 19 p r o t e s t and p r o t e s t s l a n d e r i n t h a t n o t e . P r o t e s t a g a i n . 1962 May 10 17 S i g n S i n o - P a k i s t a n Agreement P r o t e s t . 1962 June 30 18 1962 May 31 R e j e c t May 10 p r o t e s t . Renew p r o t e s t . 1962 Oct. 27 19 1962 Oct. 24 a. Propose 20 k i l . w i t h d r a w a l from l i n e o f a c t u a l c o n t r o l i n Ladakh and from McMahon L i n e i n t h e E a s t e r n S e c t o r b. Propose m e e t i n g o f o f f i c i a l s t o n e g o t i a t e disengagement. a. R e j e c t p r o p o s a l b. No s p e c i f i c o u t p u t ACTUAL TIME 1962 Nov 14 1962 Nov.' 23 1962 Nov. 30 1962 Dec. 1 1962 Dec. 19 TIME INPUTS PERIOD OUTPUTS 20 21 22 23 24 c. Propose a meetin g o f Prime c. R e j e c t u n t i l t h e r e M i n i s t e r s . o f t e n s i o n . d. No s p e c i f i c i n p u t . d. Propose w i t h d r a w a l p o s i t i o n s . 1962 Nov. 4 a. R e j e c t p r o p o s a l t o w i t h d r a w t o a. R e i t e r a t e p r o p o s a l . Sept 8/62 p o s i t i o n s . b. Propose 20 k i l . w i t h d r a w a l as *>.. R e j e c t b e f o r e . c. Propose m e e t i n g o f o f f i c i a l s as c. R e j e c t . i n 19b. d. Propose m e e t i n g o f Prime d. R e j e c t M i n i s t e r s . 1962 Nov. 21 a. D e c l a r e a u n i l a t e r a l c e a s e f i r e Nov. 22. b. D e c l a r e a u n i l a t e r a l w i t h d r a w a l o f 20 k i l . from Nov. 7/59 p o s i t i o n s on Dec. 1. c. D e c l a r e u n i l a t e r i a l i n s t a l l a t i o n o f c i v i l i a n p o l i c e a t c h e c k p o s t s . d. Propose t a l k s between Prime M i n i s t e r s . 1962 Nov. 26 C l a r i f y p r e v i o u s p r o p o s a l s . 1962 Nov. 28 a. W i l l p r o c eed w i t h Nov. 21 p r o p o s a l b. Propose t a l k s between Prime M i n i s t e r s . 19 62 Dec. 8 R e i t e r a t e c l a r i f i c a t i o n Nov. 4 p r o p o s a l s . a. Ask f o r c l a r i f i c a t i o n . b. Ask f o r c l a r i f i c a t i o n . c. Ask f o r c l a r i f i c a t i o n . d. No s p e c i f i c o u t p u t . Request f u r t h e r c l a r i f i c a t i o n . a. No s p e c i f i c o u t p u t . b. R e j e c t p r o p o s a l f o r t a l k s . R e j e c t p r o p o s a l s APPENDIX C - 96 -Map 1 I n d i a , Western and M i d d l e S e c t o r s - 97 -Map 2 I n d i a , E a s t e r n S e c t o r - 98 -Map 3 Burma 

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