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UBC Theses and Dissertations

An application of Rosenau's pre-theory to the Sino-Indian and Sino-Burmese boundary disputes Charlebois, Carol Ann Ruth 1969

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AN APPLICATION OF ROSENAU'S PRE-THEORY TO THE SINO-INDIAN AND SING-BURMESE BOUNDARY DISPUTES by CAROL ANN RUTH CHARLEBOIS B.A., U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia, 1967  A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n the Department of POLITICAL SCIENCE We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming t o the r e q u i r e d  standard  THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA August, 1969  In p r e s e n t i n g an the  thesis  advanced degree at Library  I further for  this  shall  the  his  of  this  agree that  written  University  of  permission  representatives. thesis  f u l f i l m e n t of  make i t . f r e e l y  s c h o l a r l y p u r p o s e s may  by  in p a r t i a l  be  available for for extensive  g r a n t e d by  the  It i s understood  for financial  gain  permission.  Department The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h V a n c o u v e r 8, Canada  British  Columbia  shall  requirements  Columbia,  Head o f my  be  I agree  r e f e r e n c e and copying of  that  not  the  that  Study.  this  thesis  Department  copying or  for  or  publication  allowed without  my  - i ABSTRACT T h i s p a p e r ' i s an attempt t o e x p l o r e some o f the l i n k a g e s between n a t i o n a l and i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l systems through  an a p p l i c a t i o n o f a m o d i f i e d v e r s i o n o f Rosenau's p r e -  theory t o the S i n o - I n d i a n and Sino-Burmese border d i s p u t e s . The Indian and Burmese cases presented c o n t r a s t s on some o f the v a r i a b l e s c o n s i d e r e d i n Rosenau's theory along w i t h marked d i f f e r e n c e s i n the consequences of p o l i c y outputs.  The  case s t u d i e s r e v e a l e d important d i f f e r e n c e s i n the f o r e i g n p o l i c y making processes to  t h a t c o u l d be l i n k e d t o Rosenau's v a r i a b l e s and  outcomes and consequences. Concepts developed  w i t h i n the f i e l d of f o r e i g n p o l i c y  a n a l y s i s , the study of i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l  systems, and the  theory of b a r g a i n i n g can r e a d i l y be encompassed w i t h i n the model. The model, however, presents some problems of d e f i n i t i o n and problems i n c a u s a l a n a l y s i s .  TABLE OF CONTENTS  The M o d e l The H i s t o r i c a l  Situation  D e f i n i t i o n of the Process  Variables  The F o u r P r o c e s s V a r i a b l e s a n d P o l i c y Outcomes i n Burma a n d I n d i a The P r o c e s s e s Selected  Bibliography  Appendix A Appendix B Appendix C  - i i i-  LIST: OF TABLES Table I  Issue  Areas  Table I I  Goal Locus and  Table I I I  Press Opinion i n India  T a b l e IV  Input-Output  Table V  D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Burmese  Table VI  Input-Output  Table VII  D i s t r i b u t i o n o f Burmese  Table V I I I  The R e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n I n p u t s a n d O u t p u t s i n I n d i a a n d Burma  T a b l e IX  F l e x i b i l i t y a n d R i g i d i t y i n I n d i a a n d. Burma  Stability  States  States  f o r Burma Input-Output States  f o r India Input-Output States  - iv -  LIST. OF- FIGURES Figure I  The M o d e l  Figure I I  Number o f N o t e s C o n c e r n i n g B o r d e r  Figure I I I  Number o f N o t e s L o d g i n g P r o t e s t s  Incidents  The  Model  A common method o f d i s t i n g u i s h i n g b e t w e e n  approaches  t o t h e s t u d y o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c s has been t h a t t h a t  dis-  t i n g u i s h e s between t h e s t u d y o f f o r e i g n p o l i c y and t h e s t u d y of the i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l  system.^  The  foreign  policy  a p p r o a c h , found i n most i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s t e x t b o o k s a t t e m p t s t o answer q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g t h e f o r m a t i o n o f a f o r e i g n p o l i c y and c o n c e r n s i t s e l f w i t h f a c t o r s s u c h as  national  goals, the p e r s o n a l i t i e s of the decision-makers, the nature of the governmental.system  and o t h e r f a c t o r s t h a t c o n t r i b u t e t o  the formation of a p o l i c y .  T h i s a p p r o a c h h a s become m o s t  s y s t e m a t i z e d and most r e s t r i c t i v e i n t h e d e c i s i o n making  ]/  approach  E l i z a b e t h C o n v e r s e , "The War o f A l l A g a i n s t A l l : A Review o f t h e J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n , 1957-1968" Journal o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n p. 485. K l a u s K n o r r and S i d n e y V e r b a , " I n t r o d u c t i o n " i n K n o r r a n d V e r b a , ( e d s . ) , The I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y s t e m , ( P r i n c e t o n / New Jersey: P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 1 ) , pp. 1-5. Dean G. P r u i t t , "An A n a l y s i s o f R e s p o n s i v e n e s s B e t w e e n N a t i o n s " J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n , v o l . V I no. I pp. 5-18. James N. R o s e n a u - " P r e - t h e o r i e s a n d . T h e o r i e s o f F o r e i g n P o l i c y , " i n B a r r y R. F a r r e l l , (ed.) A p p r o a c h e s t o Comparat i v e and I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s (Evanston: Northwestern U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 6 ) , pp. 27-92. F r e d A. Sondermann, "The L i n k a g e B e t w e e n F o r e i g n P o l i c y a n d I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s " i n J.N. R o s e n a u , ( e d . ) , I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s and F o r e i g n P o l i c y : A R e a d e r i n R e s e a r c h and T h e o r y . (New Y o r k : F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 6 1 ) , p p . i :  - 2 -  of R i c h a r d Snyder and h i s a s s o c i a t e s . '  Works w i t h a  systemic  o r i e n t a t i o n f o c u s upon such q u e s t i o n s as t h e s t a b i l i t y o f t h e system, the i n t e g r a t i o n or d i s i n t e g r a t i o n o f t h e system o r t h e presence  o r a b s e n c e of. v i o l e n c e i n t h e s y s t e m . In h i s " P r e - t h e o r i e s and T h e o r i e s o f F o r e i g n  James N. R o s e n a u p l e a d s  t h e need f o r an approach t h a t  Policy" will  f o c u s a t t e n t i o n b o t h on q u e s t i o n s o f f o r m a t i o n o f p o l i c y and upon t h e n a t u r e o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s y s t e m a n d a l s o upon t h e l i n k a g e s between system and sub-system.  The f o r e i g n p o l i c y  a p p r o a c h , a s much a s i t t r e a t s t h e e f f e c t o f f a c t o r s i n t h e i n t e r - n a t i o n a l environment as i n p u t s i n t o t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g process, touches in  upon one o f . t h e l i n k a g e s . . T h i s work however has  no way b e e n c a r r i e d o n s y s t e m a t i c a l l y . The o t h e r l i n k a g e ,  sub-system outputs of a t t e n t i o n .  i n t o t h e system has n o t u s u a l l y been a focus  Even t h e f i r s t s t e p i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n , a c l a s s i -  f i c a t i o n o f types o f f o r e i g n p o l i c y o u t p u t s , has n o t o f t e n been 3/ taken. ' 2/  Students  employing  t h e s y s t e m i c approach have a l s o  R.C. S.nyder, K.W. B r u c k a n d B. S a p i n , . ( e d s . ) , F o r e i g n D e c i s i o n - M a k i n g , (New Y o r k : F r e e P r e s s , 19 6 2 ) .  Policy  By r e s t r i c t i v e I mean n o t a l l o w i n g q u e s t i o n s o f a n y n a t u r e o t h e r t h a n t h e "why" o f f o r e i g n p o l i c y d e c i s i o n making t o be a s k e d . 3/  Two w o r k s t h a t do t o some e x t e n t a r e R u d o l p h J . Rummel '"Dimensions o f C o n f l i c t B e h a v i o r W i t h i n and Between N a t i o n s " , G e n e r a l Systems: Yearbook o f t h e S o c i e t y f o r G e n e r a l Systems R e s e a r c h , 1 9 6 3 , . 1 - 5 0 . a n d A n d r e w M. S c o t t , The F u n c t i o n i n g o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y s t e m , (New Y o r k : The M a c M i l l a n ~ Company, 1 9 6 7 ) .  - 3 -  made some attempt a t l i n k i n g sub-system and system.  Even the  most a b s t r a c t systemic approaches u s u a l l y d i f f e r e n t i a t e sub4/ systems along the power dimension. '  There.has been  increasing  a t t e n t i o n g i v e n t o the consequences f o r the system o f d i f f e r e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f sub-systems d i f f e r e n t i a t e d a c c o r d i n g t o such c r i t e r i a - a s l e v e l o f economic development or degree o f i n t e r n a l 5/ conflict. ' Rosenau, i n h i s p r e - t h e o r y , attempts to s y s t e m a t i c a l l y focus a t t e n t i o n on some o f these l i n k a g e s u s i n g t h e concepts o f n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s , p e n e t r a t i o n , i s s u e a r e a s , and p r o c e s s variables. The systemic process v a r i a b l e and the concept o f p e n e t r a t i o n r e l a t e t o one l i n k a g e , systemic i n p u t s i n t o t h e sub-system.  As i t stands the p r e - t h e o r y does not t r e a t sub-  systemic o u t p u t s . 4/  The scheme i s t r u n c a t e d and b i a s e d i n favor  Wolfram F. Hanreider,."The I n t e r n a t i o n a l System: Bipolar or M u l t i b l o c ? " J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n , V o l . IX No. 3, pp. 299-308. R.N. Rosecrance, " B i p o l a r i t y , M u l t i p o l a r i t y , and.the F u t u r e " . J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n . V o l . X No. 3, pp. 314-327.  5/  M.G. Lagos, I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t r a t i f i c a t i o n and Underdeveloped C o u n t r i e s Chapel H i l l : U n i v e r s i t y North C a r o l i n a P r e s s , 1963. Rummel, op. c i t .  - 4 -  of  a f o r e i g n p o l i c y approach.  '  T h i s paper  i s an a t t e m p t  to  extend the pre-theory through the l i n k i n g of process to output and o u t p u t t o s y s t e m i c consequences and t o a p p l y t h e m o d i f i e d p r e - t h e o r y i n a two  case s t u d y o f t h e S i n o - I n d i a n and  Sino-  Burmese b o u n d a r y d i s p u t e s . 7/ Rosenau's model i n c l u d e s t h r e e s e t s o f v a r i a b l e s . ' (1)  national attributes;  areas. for  (2)  p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e s , and  B o t h n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s and  the r e l a t i v e potency  (3)  issue  i s s u e areas have consequences  of the process v a r i a b l e s .  I have ex-  tended t h e model f i r s t w i t h a l i n k a g e from p r o c e s s t o o u t p u t s , w h i c h have been c l a s s i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e degree or  flexibility  i n a series of outputs.  The  of  rigidity  o u t p u t s have then  been l i n k e d t o the consequences f o r t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l  system,  which have been d e s c r i b e d , a c c o r d i n g t o the success or f a i l u r e negotiations. ary  The  p o r t i o n o f t h e model a p p l i c a b l e t o t h e bound-  d i s p u t e s i s shown i n D i a g r a m I .  t h e body o f t h e  of  The v a r i a b l e s a r e d e f i n e d i n  paper.  6/  R o s e n a u e x p l a i n s why h i s m o d e l i s p r e - t h e o r e t i c a l r a t h e r t h a n theoretical: "To be t h e o r e t i c a l . i n n a t u r e , t h e r a n k i n g s w o u l d h a v e t o s p e c i f y how much more p o t e n t e a c h s e t o f v a r i a b l e s i s t h a n t h o s e b e l o w i t on e a c h s c a l e , a n d t h e v a r i a b l e s t h e m s e l v e s w o u l d h a v e t o be c a u s a l l y l i n k e d t o s p e c i f i c f o r m s o f e x t e r n a l b e h a v i o r . " R o s e n a u , o p . c i t . , p. 47. I a g r e e t h e f i r s t t a s k m e n t i o n e d c a n n o t be a t t e m p t e d now b u t f e e l t h a t t h e l i n k a g e f r o m p r o c e s s t o o u t p u t c a n be worked upon.  7/  The c o n c e p t o f p e n e t r a t i o n i s n o t i n c l u d e d i n t h e m o d i f i e d p r e - t h e o r y a s I f e l t t h e phenomenon t h a t i t f o c u s e s u p o n are a d e q u a t e l y h a n d l e d t h r o u g h t h e s y s t e m i c p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e .  -  5 -  in  0 v.  'in  C  QJ  <. C  >-i  v. H  fl)  u  4  i  c•  0  IH <D  i  0  , 3  u  0  on 4  •A L > 0  e l :.™^  y>  5  cc") O  u:  o en  c 5 ^  c1  n  3  I  o n  il 0  c J  c  0  2 i  <  n v u  c  0  u  c  i <i o c  u t  0 L  6 -*i J Jt * i  - 6 -  The  l i n k a g e s r e p r e s e n t e d by d o u b l e  I are best d e s c r i b e d i n the form of Linkage  1  relatively  In small nations systemic factors w i l l  be  important i n the policy-making process. Rationale:  and  hypotheses.  N a t i o n a l A t t r i b u t e s to Process V a r i a b l e s Hi:  concept  l i n e s i n Diagram  T h i s i d e a may  of penetration.  be  somewhat a k i n t o R o s e n a u ' s  S m a l l n a t i o n s b e c a u s e o f l a c k o f power  o t h e r r e s o u r c e s w o u l d seem t o be more v u l n e r a b l e t o  the  environment.  Policy-makers would probably f e e l i m p e l l e d to give  environmental  f a c t o r s more w e i g h t  l a r g e n a t i o n s who or  may  have r e s o u r c e s t o e n a b l e them t o i g n o r e  change t h e environment.  parison  t h a n would p o l i c y makers i n  I n d i a a n d Burma p r o v i d e a g o o d com-  here. H2:  ables w i l l  be  In underdeveloped second  countries idiosyncratic  i n importance  i n s m a l l n a t i o n s and  varimost  important i n large nations. Rationale:  Where t h e r e i s a r e l a t i v e l y  low l e v e l  of  i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z a t i o n o f t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s and w h e r e a relatively  low l e v e l o f m o b i l i z a t i o n o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n makes f o r  i n e f f e c t i v e i n t e r e s t group p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the p r o c e s s , s y n c r a t i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the decision-makers be o f g r e a t c o n s e q u e n c e factors).  w o u l d seem t o  ( i n e f f e c t through d e f a u l t of  other  T h i s i d e a i s p r e v a l e n t i n much o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e  development p o l i t i c s . makers  idio-  say:  The  authors of a study of t h r e e  on  decision-  - 7 -  Looking a t the three leaders i n grossest fashion an e d u c a t e d g u e s s w o u l d be t h a t Nkrumah,.as r u l e r o f t h e l e a s t developed and l e a s t i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d p o l i t i c a l system, e n j o y e d t h e most l a t i t u d e i n t r a n s l a t i n g h i s p e r s o n a l l i k e s and d i s l i k e s , h i s h a t e s a n d f e a r s i n t o p o l i t i c a l deeds and symbols.°/ In  t h i s paper t h e s t r e n g t h o f i d i o s y n c r a t i c f a c t o r s as opposed  to  t h e s t r e n g t h o f o t h e r p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e s i s s t u d i e d b u t no com-  p a r i s o n c a n b e made b e t w e e n a d e v e l o p e d  n a t i o n and an underdeve-  loped n a t i o n . H3: will  I n underdeveloped  be r e l a t i v e l y u n i m p o r t a n t Rationale:  c o u n t r i e s governmental  factors  i n the policy-making process.  The r a t i o n a l e b e h i n d t h i s h y p o t h e s i s i s  c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h a t behind t h e p r e v i o u s one. as t h e u n d e r d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e b u r e a u c r a c y  Such  factors  or the ineffective  f u n c t i o n i n g o f t h e l e g i s l a t u r e o f t e n c i t e d i n t h e development l i t e r a t u r e w o u l d seem t o m i t i g a t e a g a i n s t a p o t e n t variable.  A governmental  governmental  monopoly o f t a l e n t however has l e d t o  t h e o p p o s i t e h y p o t h e s i s b e i n g made c o n c e r n i n g s u c h c o u n t r i e s as P a k i s t a n . H4:  I n an open p o l i t y s o c i e t a l v a r i a b l e s w i l l be  more i m p o r t a n t t h a n i n a c l o s e d p o l i t y . Rationale: such as p o l i t i c a l which  8/  Open p o l i t i e s a r e c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y c h a n n e l s  p a r t i e s , l e g i s l a t u r e s , and t h e p r e s s  s o c i e t a l f o r c e s may e n t e r t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g  through  process.  D a v i d J . F i n l a y , O l e R. H o l s t i , a n d R i c h a r d R. F a g e n , Enemies i n P o l i t i c s . C h i c a g o , I l l i n o i s , Rand M c N a l l y & Company, 1 9 6 7 . p . 2 3 5 .  Linkage 2  Issue HI:  status w i l l  Area t o Process  A change from a t e r r i t o r i a l  increase  t h e r e l a t i v e importance o f s o c i e t a l f a c t o r s .  Rationale:  A s t a t u s i s s u e i s one i n w h i c h b o t h i n t a n -  g i b l e e n d s a n d means a r e i n v o l v e d . a greater  i s s u e t o an i s s u e o f  number o f a c t o r s  I t i s therefore  c o u l d be m o b i l i z e d  c a s e w h e r e e n d s a n d means a r e more s p e c i f i c .  likely  t h a n would be t h e Status  issues  are a l s o u s u a l l y i s s u e s which i n v o l v e e m o t i o n s r a t h e r specific technical skills Linkage 3  than  o r knowledge.  Process t o Output Hi:  will  that  When s o c i e t a l p r e s s u r e s  t e n d t o be  a r e strong p o l i c y outputs  rigid.  Rationale:  S o c i e t a l pressures  are less subject to  c h a n g e due t o c h a n g e s i n t h e s i t u a t i o n a t h a n d , new  information  9. c o n c e r n i n g t h e s i t u a t i o n o r new p o s i t i o n s t a k e n b y o t h e r H2: puts w i l l  When s y s t e m i c  I t i s through t h i s v a r i a b l e that  the s i t u a t i o n are directly  felt  manner t h a n i f o t h e r  changes  and i f t h a t v a r i a b l e i s strong  changes i n t h e s i t u a t i o n w i l l be a c t e d  9/  a r e important p o l i c y out-  t e n d t o be f l e x i b l e . Rationale:  in  pressures  actors. '  u p o n i n a more d i r e c t  variables are strong.  J . D a v i d S i n g e r , " N e g o t i a t i o n by P r o x y : A P r o p o s a l " o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n V o l . I X No. 4, p p . 53 8-541. A.T. S t e e l e McGraw-Hill  Journal  T h e A m e r i c a n P e o p l e a n d C h i n a , New Y o r k : 19T6^  A l e x i s De T o c q u e v i l l e , D e m o c r a c y i n A m e r i c a V o l . I , (New York.: S c h o c k e n B o o k s , 19 61) . p . 2 4 9 .  - 9 -  Linkage 4  Outputs t o Consequences Hi:  nature  Where v e r b a l o u t p u t s  a r e r i g i d and  of a  negative  there i s l e s s l i k e l i h o o d of s u c c e s s f u l n e g o t i a t i o n s  more l i k e l i h o o d o f a r e s o r t t o n e g a t i v e p h y s i c a l o u t p u t s if  v e r b a l outputs  The  than  flexible.  Historical Situation The  use  are  and  c a s e s t o be  considered  were s e l e c t e d t h r o u g h  of t h r e e c r i t e r i a which i n o r d e r of p r i o r i t y were  the  (a)  i n t e r e s t i n g c o n t r a s t s i n t e r m s o f b o t h n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s and consequences of outputs;  (b)  t i m e p e r i o d , i s s u e a r e a , and bility  of  situation,  r e g i o n a l environment;  (c)  c a s e s c h o s e n were t h e border, d i s p u t e s  C h i n a and  b e t w e e n Burma and  China.  The  between  territories  u n d e r d i s p u t e a r e shown i n maps 1 - 3 i n A p p e n d i x C.  The  Indian border i s d i v i d e d i n t o the Western S e c t o r , w i t h Chin  and  running  availa-  data. The  I n d i a and  s i m i l a r i t i e s i n the  t h e Demchok a r e a u n d e r d i s p u t e , t h e M i d d l e  Aksai  Sector,  t h r o u g h many d i s p u t e d p a s s e s s u c h as S h i p k i P a s s  B a r a h o t i , and under d i s p u t e .  the Eastern  Sino-  and  S e c t o r , w h e r e m o s t o f N.E.F.A. i s  I n Burma, t h e b o r d e r i s a l s o d i v i d e d i n t o  s e c t i o n s , t h a t m a r k e d by  t h e McMahon l i n e , t h a t by  w a d d y - S a l w e e n W a t e r s h e d , and B o t h N a t i o n a l i s t and  t h a t by  t h e 1941  the  Iselin  three  Irra-  Line.  Communist C h i n e s e governments had  cir-  c u l a t e d maps w i t h t h e b o u n d a r i e s m a r k e d as i n d i c a t e d i n maps  - 10  1 - 3 i n A p p e n d i x C.  -  B o t h r e g i m e s had  issued periodic state-  m e n t s t h a t s u c h a g r e e m e n t s a s t h e 1842  t r e a t y between T i b e t  K a s h m i r and  which India claimed  t h e 1914  Simla Convention,  d e l i m i t e d t h e b o u n d a r y , and  the Simla Convention  and  the  t h e u n s t a b l e s i t u a t i o n , and  I n Burma n o t i c e was  I n 1954, Chinese  taken  b u t r e c e i v e d no  for a  a j o i n t communique d e c l a r e d t h a t b o t h t h e Burmese governments r e c o g n i z e d t h e need f o r a . p e a c e f u l  i n c u r s i o n s p a s t t h e 19 41 l i n e i n t o t h e Wa  and  settleand  1956  S t a t e and  t h e I r r a w a d d y - S a l w e e n W a t e r s h e d i n t o t h e Hpimaw a r e a , tively.  of  reply.  ment o f t h e b o u n d a r y p r o b l e m . . T h e r e o c c u r r e d i n . 1 9 5 5 Chinese  Sino-  t h e Burmese government a s k e d  s e t t l e m e n t o f t h e q u e s t i o n i n 1949,  had 1941  I s e l i n C o m m i s s i o n , w h i c h Burma c l a i m e d h a d d e l i m i t e d t h e Burmese b o u n d a r y , w e r e i l l e g a l .  and  past  respec-  There f o l l o w e d a s e r i e s of exchanges t h a t r e s u l t e d  i n t h e 19 56 c e a s e f i r e a g r e e m e n t a n d  finally  i n the  Sino-Burmese  B o u n d a r y T r e a t y o f O c t o b e r 1, 19 60. A f t e r the i n i t i a l case progressed  through  c i r c u l a t i o n o f maps, t h e  a.number.of i s o l a t e d b o r d e r  i n t h e E a s t e r n and M i d d l e S e c t o r s f r o m J u n e 1954. a meeting of o f f i c i a l s  i n 1958  b u t no p r o g r e s s . w a s made. s h a r p l y i n 1959. two  The  Chinese  Tension  number o f b o r d e r  I n A p r i l o f 1960  t h e r e was  There  was Barihoti  i n c i d e n t s rose  a meeting of  settlement  i n c r e a s e d u n t i l the.October  f o r c e s i n t o N.E.F.A.  clashes  to d i s c u s s the c l a i m s to  P r i m e M i n i s t e r s i n D e l h i , b u t a g a i n no  reached.  Sino-Indian  1962  the  was  i n v a s i o n of  P a r t - o f the problem then i s  why  - 11 -  t h e s e two s i t u a t i o n s , i n many r e s p e c t s v e r y s i m i l a r , the  Sino-Indian case involved  (although  more t e r r i t o r y a n d t e r r i t o r y o f  much more s t r a t e g i c v a l u e ) s h o u l d  have r u n such  different  courses. The variables  Model.  (1)  broad n a t i o n a l  process variables and  (3) i s s u e  Rosenau's model i n c l u d e s attributes  three sets of  s u c h a s s i z e ; (2)  such as i d i o s y n c r a t i c o r s o c i e t a l  factors;  area.  National  Attributes.  The m o d e l s u g g e s t s t h a t  national  a t t r i b u t e s w i l l have consequences f o r t h e o r d e r i n g o f importance of t h e c l u s t e r s the  of variables  a r e seen as f u n n e l l i n g  into  p o l i c y p r o c e s s and t h r o u g h t h i s mechanism f o r p o l i c y  out-  p u t s and consequences. the  findings  In a recently  o f t h e DON P r o j e c t  vary i n t h e i r national sions"  that  and t h a t  Rummel s t a t e s  that  "these seven d i m e n s i o n s have l i t t l e  correlation  o f t h e s e seven d i m e n s i o n s were  called size, political orientation,  and economic development.  and economic development a r e measured h e r e by  s i m i l a r t o Rummel's.  "nations  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a l o n g seven major dimen-  w i t h each o t h e r " . T h r e e  Size  p u b l i s h e d a r t i c l e on  He s t a t e s  further  indicators  that  10/  Aksai Chin i s the only convenient year-round route t o Tibet.  11/  R u m m e l l , R . J . , "Some E m p i r i c a l F i n d i n g s o n N a t i o n s a n d t h e i r B e h a v i o r " , W o r l d P o l i t i c s , ( J a n . 1 9 6 9 ) , p. 2 2 9 .  - 12  -  D i s s i m i l a r i t i e s i n s i z e and e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t are the most i m p o r t a n t d e t e r m i n a n t s of the v a r i a t i o n i n b e h a v i o r of n a t i o n s toward each o t h e r , e x p l a i n i n g a b o u t 85 p e r c e n t o f t h e v a r i a n c e . The be  relevant  national  a t t r i b u t e s i z e was  intuitively  therefore also and  related t o the  t o the  range of p o s s i b l e  A p o p u l a t i o n of  t h i r t y m i l l i o n o r . o v e r was  U s i n g R u s s e t t ' s 1961  of  resources, policy  and  outcomes  n a t i o n ' s . a b i l i t y t o change i t s environment.  I n t h i s c a s e I h a v e u s e d p o p u l a t i o n s i z e as  f i e d as  to  through i t s h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n w i t h most i n d i c e s  p o w e r s u c h as w e a l t h , m i l i t a r y c a p a b i l i t y , and  available  felt  d a t a 15  l a r g e , w h i l e 118  the  d e f i n e d as  nations including  including  indicator^  Burma a r e  India  large. are  classified  classias  small. The and  state  most o f  of  the  o t h e r two the  national  economy a r e  period  the  The  state  of the  e x p e c t e d t o have a marked e f f e c t  p o l i c y m a k i n g . p r o c e s s , d e t e r m i n i n g w h i c h i n t e r e s t s can  systematically  and  l e g i t i m a t e l y b r o u g h t t o b e a r upon  12/  I b i d . , p.  23 8.  13/  I b i d . , p.  240.  14/  R u s s e t t , B r u c e M., Social Indicators, 1 9 6 4 ) , p. 15.  polity  i n e f f e c t held constant throughout  under i n v e s t i g a t i o n .  ( o p e n o r c l o s e d ) w o u l d be the  a t t r i b u t e s , s t a t e of  polity upon be  the  e t a l . , W o r l d Handbook o f P o l i t i c a l (New H a v e n ! Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s ,  and  - 13  process. this  -  To be c l a s s i f i e d as open a p o l i c y must e x h i b i t  /  characteristic Autonomous groups are f r e e to e n t e r p o l i t i c s and t o oppose the government, save f o r e x t r e m i s t groups.  Oppose means to b u i l d o r g a n i z a t i o n s t e s t i n g e l e c t i o n s , and media and  f o r the purpose of con-  to c r i t i c i z e the government i n the mass  in a legislature.  Extremist  groups are those t h a t  oppose through v i o l e n c e r a t h e r than by the above means. During most of the p e r i o d under c o n s i d e r a t i o n Burma and I n d i a would be c l a s s i f i e d as open. multi-party  Before  1958  Burma had  a  system t h a t i n c l u d e d the A.F.P.F.L. , the Burmese  Communist P a r t y , and  s e c t i o n a l p a r t i e s such as the Arkanese  N a t i o n a l United O r g a n i z a t i o n .  At c e r t a i n i n t e r v a l s the Communist  P a r t y went underground, but t h i s seems to have been f o r t a c t i c a l reasons r a t h e r than the r e s u l t of any  government r e s t r i c t i o n  on  other means of o p p o s i t i o n . In 1956  a l l o p p o s i t i o n p a r t i e s joined, to form the  N a t i o n a l U n i t y F r o n t and September 26,  1958,  oppose the dominant A.F.P.F.L.  to March 1960,  Burma under the  From  Caretaker  Government would be c l a s s i f i e d as c l o s e d because.although there was  freedom to o r g a n i z e  f o r the 1960  e l e c t i o n , c r i t i c i s m of  the  15/ F a r r e l l , Barry R., "Foreign P o l i c i e s of Open and C l o s e d P o l i t i c a l S o c i e t i e s " , i n F a r r e l l , Barry R., (ed) Approaches to Comparative and I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s , (Evanston: Northwestern U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1966), pp. 167-208. Zbigniew B r z e z i n s k i and Samuel P. Huntington, P o l i t i c a l Power USA/USSR, (New York: The V i k i n g P r e s s , 1966), passim.  -  C a r e t a k e r G o v e r n m e n t was  severely  I n d i a a l s o had c o m m u n i s t p a r t i e s and  14  restricted.  a multi-party  s u c h r e g i o n a l p a r t i e s as  M u n n e r t r a K a z a g h a n , and  the  r i g h t i s t Jan  evidence of r e s t r i c t i o n of o p p o s i t i o n a r r e s t of  several  connected with  Sikh  the  system i n c l u d i n g  leaders  but  the  two  Dravida  Sangh.• The  only  came i n 19 61 w i t h  the  t h e y seem t o h a v e b e e n c l o s e l y  communal r i o t s a n d . c o u l d be  classified  as  17 / the  leaders  o f an  The was  extremist  range of p o s s i b l e  since  i n t e r e s t g r o u p s and  duces a per  the  the  be  the  process  presence of c e r t a i n types the  of  popula-  considered developed i f i t pro-  c a p i t a gross n a t i o n a l product of T e x t o r ' s 19 61 d a t a 9 1 ,  1 1 5 . n a t i o n s w o u l d be  economy,  r e l a t e d d i r e c t l y to  degree of m o b i l i z a t i o n of  economy w i l l be  U s i n g B a n k s ' and Burma, o f  i t can  s t a t e of the  p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s , and.to the  through i t s c o r r e l a t i o n with  H e r e an  '  t h i r d n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e , the  considered relevant  tion.  group.  $600 o r  more.  including India  and 18/ considered underdeveloped. '  16/  S i l v e r s t e i n , J o s e f , "Burma", i n McT. K a h i n , G e o r g e , G o v e r n m e n t and P o l i t i c s o f S o u t h e a s t A s i a , ( I t h a c a , York: C o r n e l l U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 5 9 ) , p. 1 2 1 - 1 3 2 .  17/  P a l m e r , Norman D., "India", Major Governments o f A s i a , U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 3 ) , p. The New Y o r k T i m e s I n d e x ,  18/  B a n k , A r t h u s S., and T e x t o r , R o b e r t B., A S u r v e y , ( C a m b r i d g e , M a s s . : M.I.T. P r e s s ,  (ed) New  i n McT. K a h i n , G e o r g e (ed) ( I t h a c a , New Y o r k : Cornell 335 - 381. 1961. Cross-Polity 19 6 3 ) , p. 63".  - 15 -  Issue  Area Rosenau d e f i n e s  issue area as:  ... (1) a c l u s t e r o f v a l u e s , t h e a l l o c a t i o n o r p o t e n t i a l a l l o c a t i o n o f w h i c h (2) l e a d s t h e a f f e c t e d o r p o t e n t i a l l y a f f e c t e d a c t o r s t o d i f f e r so g r e a t l y o v e r (a) t h e way i n w h i c h t h e v a l u e s s h o u l d be a l l o c a t e d o r (b) t h e h o r i z o n t a l l e v e l s a t w h i c h t h e a l l o c a t i o n s s h o u l d be a u t h o r i z e d t h a t (3) t h e y engage i n d i s t i n c t i v e b e h a v i o r d e s i g n e d t o m o b i l i z e support f o r the attainment of t h e i r p a r t i c u l a r values.19/ Four i s s u e a r e a s d i s t i n g u i s h e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e tangible or intangible character used here  o f t h e e n d s a n d means w i l l be  (a) t h e non-human r e s o u r c e s  b o t h e n d s a n d means a r e t a n g i b l e ;  i s s u e a r e a i s one w h e r e  (b) t h e human r e s o u r c e  a r e a i s one w h e r e t h e e n d s a r e i n t a n g i b l e w h i l e tangible; are  (c) t h e t e r r i t o r i a l  tangible while  issue  t h e means a r e  i s s u e a r e a i s one where t h e ends  t h e means a r e i n t a n g i b l e ; (d) t h e s t a t u s  issue  a r e a i s one w h e r e b o t h e n d s a n d means a r e i n t a n g i b l e . Issue p o l i c y makers. operating  i s defined  in.terms of the perceptions  of the  Evidence of the issue area i n which they are  i s found i n t h e i r d i s c u s s i o n s  of the disputes..  A  t e r r i t o r i a l -issue i s e v i d e n c e d by d i s c u s s i o n s r e v o l v i n g around e i t h e r c e r t a i n t r a c t s o f land or.around t h e placement o f major l i n e s s u c h a s t h e McMahon L i n e . by  references  wrong, f a i r leadership  19/  t o such t h i n g s  treatment),  A status issue i s indicated  as a b s o l u t e  values  t o honour, respect,  positions.  R o s e n a u , o p . c i t . , p. 8 1 .  (eg. r i g h t ,  and i n t e g r i t y , o r t o  - 16 -  The  c o n t e n t i o n here i s t h a t the i s s u e area remained  almost p u r e l y t e r r i t o r i a l i n the case,of  Burma.while i n the case  of I n d i a the i s s u e area changed d u r i n g the p e r i o d of the rebellion  i n March and A p r i l  1959.  In I n d i a t up u n t i l 1959  there were f r e q u e n t  f o r meetings of o f f i c i a l s to d i s c u s s s p e c i f i c especially  the passes.  There was  s e c t o r passes i n the 1954 1958  to d i s c u s s B a r a h o t i .  Tibetan  tracts  proposals of l a n d ,  some agreement on the Middle  Trade Agreement and o f f i c i a l s met There i s no evidence  in  of the matter  being extended to any other i s s u e areas except i n the ..few notes exchanged t h a t mentioned the d i s p u t e s Five Principles r e p e a t e d l y and the s i t u a t i o n  1  adverse e f f e c t s  of P e a c e f u l . Co-rexistence.  In 1959  upon the  Nehru  s p e c i f i c a l l y made r e f e r e n c e to h i s c o n v i c t i o n t h a t was  no longer a . t e r r i t o r i a l d i s p u t e but an a c t  of a g g r e s s i o n on the p a r t of China and a t h r e a t t o the eignty, integrity,  sover-  and honour of I n d i a .  But n o t h i n g can be a.more amazing f o l l y than f o r two g r e a t c o u n t r i e s l i k e I n d i a and China to get i n t o a major c o n f l i c t and war f o r the p o s s e s s i o n of a few mountainous peaks. But i t i s not a q u e s t i o n of a m i l e or two. I t i s something more p r e c i o u s than a hundred or a thousand m i l e s . People's p a s s i o n s have been brought to a h i g h not because of a patch of t e r r i t o r y but because they f e e l t h a t we have not r e c e i v e d a f a i r treatment i n t h i s matter and have been t r e a t e d r a t h e r c a s u a l l y by the Chinese Government and an attempt has been made, i f I may use the word, to b u l l y u s . ' 2 0  20/ Statement to the Rajya Sabha, Sept. 10/59.  - 17 -  Reaction  i n India to the Tibetan  been a c a t a l y s t i n t h i s interms  of  s i t u a t i o n seems t o h a v e  c h a n g e o f i s s u e a r e a when v i e w e d e i t h e r  values Tragedy has been and i s b e i n g e n a c t e d p a s s i o n s have been l e t l o o s e , charges language-used which cannot but worsen s i t u a t i o n and o u r r e l a t i o n s w i t h o u r neighbour.21/  i n Tibet, made a n d the northern  or as a p h y s i c a l t h r e a t T o d a y i t i s T i b e t . Tomorrow i t may be and t h e d a y a f t e r i t may b e u s . 2 2 /  Nepal,,  There were a s e r i e s o f d e m o n s t r a t i o n s a g a i n s t t h e C h i n e s e embassy a n d c o n s u l a t e s .  Menon, i n a n i n t e r v i e w w i t h  Brecher,  has s a i d . . . t h i s unnecessary emotional romantic idea of assumed a f f i n i t y w i t h t h e D a l a i Lama h a s b e e n p a r t o f our s i n s i n our r e l a t i o n s w i t h China. Brecher,  Lall,  a n d Menon a l l make m e n t i o n o f t h e f a c t  t h a t Nehru f e l t t h e Chinese were a t t e m p t i n g  t o . d i s c r e d i t him,  p e r s o n a l l y , and I n d i a , i n t h e eyes o f t h e A f r o - A s i a n  leaders.  T h e r e i s n o t a s much i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e Burmese t i o n b u t what t h e r e  i s w o u l d i n d i c a t e t h a t Burmese  viewed t h e d i s p u t e as p u r e l y t e r r i t o r i a l . .  situa-  leaders  Referring to the Sino-  Burmese B o u n d a r y A g r e e m e n t , U Nu s a i d t h a t t h e n e g o t i a t i o n s  "were  i n r e a l i t y a c o n t i n u a t i o n o f t h e uncompleted n e g o t i a t i o n s between  21/ Statement t o t h e Lok Sabha, A p r i l  27/59.  2 2 / A member o f t h e o p p o s i t i o n q u o t e d i n T a n g , P e t e r S.H., Communist C h i n a Today. ( W a s h i n g t o n , D.C.: Research I n s t i t u t e o n t h e S i n o - S o v i e t B l o c , 1 9 6 1 ) , p. 596. 2 3 / B r e c h e r , M i c h a e l , I n d i a a n d W o r l d P o l i t i c s : K r i s h n a Menon's V i e w o f t h e W o r l d , ( L o n d o n : O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , . 1968) , p. 45.  - 18 -  the B r i t i s h and t h e C h i n e s e . "  '  In contrast to the Indian reaction t o the Tibetan s i t u a t i o n t h e Burmese r e a c t i o n was d e s c r i b e d . i n t h e f o l l o w i n g way Burman p u b l i c r e a c t i o n was one o f i m m e d i a t e s h o c k / soon t o be f o l l o w e d by i n d i f f e r e n c e t o a p r o b l e m a b o u t w h i c h t h e Burma g o v e r n m e n t c o u l d do n o t h i n g and a cause w h i c h i t w o u l d c e r t a i n l y n o t w i s h t o make i t s own. P a s s i v e i n t e r e s t i n t h e T i b e t a n a f f a i r p e r h a p s i l l u s t r a t e d , a s much a s a n y t h i n g t h e e f f e c t s o f l o n g i s o l a t i o n b y Burma f r o m t h e main s t r e a m o f w o r l d e v e n t s and t h e consequent l a c k o f d e s i r e t o be p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h e m . " / The i s s u e a r e a s f o r t h e I n d i a n a n d B u r m e s e c a s e s a r e summarized  i n Table I .  D e f i n i t i o n s of the Process Variables M o s t f a c t o r s one c o u l d c o n c e i v e o f a s i n f l u e n c i n g f o r e i g n p o l i c y d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g c o u l d be f i t t e d Rosenau's  i n t o one o f  process variable categories i fthe loose  he s u p p l i e s a r e u s e d .  definitions  In order to focus the research,  however,  i t was t h o u g h t e x p e d i e n t t o move i n t o t h e c a s e s t u d y w i t h  somewhat  more c l e a r c u t b u t much n a r r o w e r d e f i n i t i o n s o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s . Rosenau i d e n t i f i e s  f i v e major c l u s t e r s o f v a r i a b l e s t h a t c a n be  seen as f u n n e l l i n g i n t o t h e p o l i c y p r o c e s s . . Only f o u r ,  idio-  s y n c r a t i c , s o c i e t a l , s y s t e m i c , a n d . g o v e r n m e n t a l , w i l l be u s e d h e r e .  24/ J o h n s t o n e , W i l l i a m C , Burma's F o r e i g n P o l i c y , ( C a m b r i d g e , M a s s . : H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 19 6 3 ) , p. 184. 2 5 / I b i d . , p. 1 8 5 .  Table I Issue Areas Burma  India  Tangible Ends  Yes - t h e r e t e n t i o n o f t h e d i s puted t e r r i t o r y w i t h a d i s c u s s i o n couched i n terms e i t h e r o f s p e c i f i c t r a c t s o f l a n d such as t h e Namwan T r a c t o r o f s p e c i f i c l i n e s s u c h as t h e Irrawaddy-Salween Watershed.  Yes  the r e t e n t i o n o f t h e d i s p u t e d t e r r i t o r y w i t h a d i s c u s s i o n couched i n terms o f s p e c i f i c t r a c t s o f l a n d such as B a r a h o t i or i n terms o f s p e c i f i c l i n e s such as t h e McMahon L i n e .  Intangible Ends  No  Yes  to d e a l e f f e c t i v e l y w i t h a n a t i o n which was a t t e m p t i n g t o d i s c r e d i t b o t h t h e l e a d e r and t h e n a t i o n i n t h e eyes o f t h e l e a d e r s and t h e p e o p l e o f t h e A f r o Asian states, to d e a l e f f e c t i v e l y w i t h a n a t i o n t h a t had n o t , as e x p e c t e d , r e c i p r o c a t e d t h e g o o d w i l l I n d i a h a d shown i n s u c h a c t i o n s as s p o n s o r i n g C h i n e s e U.N. m e m b e r s h i p , to d e a l e f f e c t i v e l y w i t h a n a t i o n t h a t was " b u l l y i n g " , t h r e a t e n i n g t h e " h o n o u r " o f I n d i a and v i o l a t i n g a l l t h e " r i g h t " r u l e s of conduct, (on t h e p a r t o f t h e p u b l i c ) a d e s i r e t o r e c t i f y the situation i n Tibet.  Tangible Means  No  No  Intangible . Means  Yes  Yes  - 20  -  In the f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n these four v a r i a b l e s specifically defined.  I n d i a a n d Burma a r e c l a s s i f i e d a c c o r d i n g  to these d e f i n i t i o n s i n the next  section.  Idiosyncratic Variables.  Idiosyncratic  a r e t h o s e t h a t w o u l d be e x p e c t e d t o v a r y w i t h t h e p o l i c y maker.  are  variables individual  Rosenau s a y s t h e y :  ...include a l l those aspects of a decision-maker h i s v a l u e s , t a l e n t s and p r i o r e x p e r i e n c e - t h a t d i s t i n g u i s h h i s f o r e i g n p o l i c y choices or behavior from those of every o t h e r decision-maker.26/ They have l o n g been an i m p o r t a n t s o u r c e o f d a t a f o r s t u d e n t s o f foreign policy decision-making. Politics  say of t h e s e  The  a u t h o r s o f Enemies i n  variables:  I n most i n s t a n c e s , r e a l i t y e l u d e s such s i m p l e e x p l a n a t i o n s [a p e r s o n a l i t y t h e o r y o f p o l i t i c s ] . What i s c r i t i c a l . t o a p p r e c i a t e i s t h a t few s i t u a t i o n s o f c o n f l i c t and i t s r e s o l u t i o n c a n be u n d e r s t o o d w i t h o u t r e f e r e n c e t o t h e p a r t i c u l a r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e l e a d e r s who g i v e s h a p e and m e a n i n g (and o f t e n b i r t h ) t o t h e p o l i t i c a l e v e n t s , i s s u e a n d e n e m i e s w h i c h come t o embody the c o n f l i c t . 2 7 / Most i d i o s y n c r a t i c v a r i a b l e s found i n the l i t e r a t u r e can d e s c r i b e d as e i t h e r b e i n g c o n c e r n e d w i t h r a t i o n a l i r r a t i o n a l personal factors  2 6 / R o s e n a u , op. c i t . , 27/ F i n l a y e t a l . ,  p.  be  factors,  28/ ' or s o c i o l o g i c a l f a c t o r s ,  concerned  43.  op. c i t . ,  p.  233.  28/ I am u s i n g V e r b a ' s d e f i n i t i o n o f r a t i o n a l and i r r a t i o n a l factors here. "A n o n - l o g i c a l i n f l u e n c e i s any i n f l u e n c e a c t i n g u p o n t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r o f w h i c h he i s u n a w a r e and w h i c h he w o u l d n o t c o n s i d e r , a l e g i t i m a t e i n f l u e n c e u p o n h i s d e c i s i o n i f he w e r e a w a r e o f i t " S i d n e y V e r b a , "Assumpt i o n s o f R a t i o n a l i t y and N o n - r a t i o n a l i t y i n M o d e l s o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y s t e m " , i n K n o r r and V e r b a , op. c i t , p. 94.  - 21 -  w i t h such t h i n g s as p a s t  career.  S t u d i e s making use o f i r r a t i o n a l p e r s o n a l i t y v a r i a b l e s , 09 /  an e x a m p l e o f w h i c h i s L e w i s  J . E d i n g e r ' s K u r t Schumacher,  r e q u i r e g r e a t amounts o f i n f o r m a t i o n a n d s u p p l y v e r y linkages t o outputs. characteristics  Many s t u d i e s u s i n g s o c i a l  I d e o l o g i c a l Movements °^ and L e w i s 3  logical  tenuous  background  s u c h a s t h o s e i n H a r o l d D. L a s s w e l l a n d D a n i e l  Lerner's World R e v o l u t i o n a r y E l i t e s :  Searing's  '  Studies i n Coercive  J . Edinger  and Donald  " S o c i a l Background i n E l i t e A n a l y s i s : 31/  Inquiry",  /  have found  D.  A Methodo-  s o c i a l background  characteristics  not t o d i s t i n g u i s h c l e a r l y between groups o f e l i t e s and they w o u l d be e x p e c t e d  t o do s o l e s s c l e a r l y b e t w e e n  I have t h e r e f o r e chosen.to termed t h e r a t i o n a l here and  factors.  individuals.  r e l y on w h a t c o u l d be  T h o s e t o be s p e c i f i c a l l y  considered  are the substantive content of the i n d i v i d u a l ' s value h i s o r i e n t a t i o n toward  t h i s value system  the extent o f i t s i n t e r n a l i z a t i o n ) . teristics, output  system  ( i t s s t a b i l i t y and  U s i n g t h e s e two c h a r a c -  i d i o s y n c r a t i c v a r i a b l e s c a n be r e l a t e d t o p o l i c y  i n b o t h a d i r e c t i o n a l manner a n d i n t e r m s o f some  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c such as r i g i d i t y . 29/ A S t u d y i n P e r s o n a l i t y a n d P o l i t i c a l B e h a v i o r , C a l . i S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 19 6 5 ) .  (Stanford,  30/ Cambridge, Mass.:  M.I.T. P r e s s , 1 9 6 5 ) .  31/ American P o l i t i c a l  S c i e n c e R e v i e w , J u n e , 1967, 428-445.  - 22  The  concept  -  of the value system i s s i m i l a r t o t h a t of  S c o t t ' s w h i c h he d e s c r i b e s  as  . . . t h e v a r i o u s g o a l s , p r e f e r e n c e s , and v a l u e s r e l a t i n g t o t h e e n t i t y f o r w h i c h he i s a d e c i s i o n m a k e r . . . T h e s e g o a l s , v a l u e s , and p r e f e r e n c e s w i l l be o r g a n i z e d i n t e r m s o f r e l a t i v e p r i o r i t y on t h e b a s i s of the i n t e n s i t y of f e e l i n g a t t a c h e d to each goal or v a l u e . / 3 2  Since the value system r e l a t e s decision-maker" between these  " t o t h e e n t i t y f o r w h i c h he  t h e r e w o u l d seem t o be a c l e a r e r  i d i o s y n c r a t i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and  w o u l d be t h e c a s e  relationship outputs  than  i f a s o c i a l background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c  such  as p r e v i o u s c a r e e r o r a p e r s o n a l i t y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c such a u t h o r i t a r i a n i s m were used. one  is a  An  a p p r o a c h somewhat l i k e  as the  u s e d h e r e a l t h o u g h on t h e l e v e l o f an e l i t e g r o u p r a t h e r  than the i n d i v i d u a l i s found of the P o l i t b u r o .  33/ '  The  i n N.  concept  L e i t e s ' The.Operational o f s t a b i l i t y and  Code  locus of  the goal or the extent of i n t e r n a l i z a t i o n are d e r i v e d from work o f Riesman.  34/ '  A f o u r f o l d t a b l e incorporates these  the  two  32/  S c o t t , A n d r e w M., The F u n c t i o n i n g o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y s t e m , (New Y o r k : The M a c m i l l a n Company, 1 9 6 7 ) , p. 5~1.  33/  (New  York:  McGraw H i l l ,  1951).  34/ R i e s m a n , • D a v i d and G l a z i e r , N a t h a n , F a c e s i n t h e C r o w d , (New Haven: Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 5 2 ) , and Riesman, D a v i d , D e n n y , R e u e l , and G l a z i e r , N a t h a n , The L o n e l y C r o w d : A S t u d y o f t h e C h a n g i n g . A m e r i c a n C h a r a c t e r " ^ (New H a v e n : Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1950).  - 23 -  concepts: Table I I Goal Locus and S t a b i l i t y GOAL S T A B I L I T Y LOCUS OF GOAL  Inflexible  Internalized  Innerdirected  Culturally Derived  Traditiondirected  The  matrix describes  t h a t he does n o t c o n s i d e r .  Fluctuating  Otherdirected  Riesman's t h r e e t y p e s and a  Riesman d e s c r i b e s  t h e m o s t common t y p e s , t h e i n n e r - d i r e c t e d personalities. are  fourth  w h a t h e f e e l s t o be  and o t h e r - d i r e c t e d  The norms o f t h e i n n e r - d i r e c t e d  personality  i n t e r n a l i z e d a n d he shows a n i n f l e x i b l e d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o  a c h i e v e any o f t h e p o s s i b l e might suggest.  g o a l s w h i c h an e x p a n d i n g  He h a s a n i n t e n s e  society  c o n v i c t i o n about t h e pro-  p r i e t y o f w h a t h e w a n t s t o do a n d c a n a f f o r d - p s y c h o l o g i c a l l y t o ignore t h e wishes o f peer groups. other-directed  personality  The l o c u s  i s i n t h e c u l t u r a l system.  obeys a f l u c t u a t i n g s e r i e s o f s h o r t - r u n He b e l i e v e s  of the goals ofthe  i t i s appropriate  goals picked  The a c t o r up b y  "radar".  t o be a b l e c o n t i n u a l l y t o s h i f t  a s p i r a t i o n s a n d g o a l s s o t h a t i n d i v i d u a l norms w i l l be b r o u g h t 35/ into accord with  35/  t h e c h a n g i n g demands o f r e l e v a n t  groups.  Riesman, D a v i d . a n d G l a z i e r , N a t h a n , Faces, i n t h e Crowd, (New H a v e n : Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 5 2 ) , p p . 6-12.  - 24  -  The m e a s u r e o f t h e s t a b i l i t y and l o c u s o f g o a l s w i l l be t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h t h e o b s e r v e r f i n d s t h e actions consistent with a relatively  not  individual's  i n f l e x i b l e v a l u e system  but the e x t e n t t o which the a c t o r h i m s e l f measures h i s conduct a g a i n s t some s t a n d a r d .  Societal  Variables: T h e s e - v a r i a b l e s c o u l d range from the v e r y broad concepts  u s e d i n a n a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r a p p r o a c h t o t h e more s p e c i f i c used i n the s t u d i e s of i n t e r e s t group i n f l u e n c e . them as c o n s i s t i n g  "...of those nongovernmental  36/ s o c i e t y which i n f l u e n c e i t s behavior."  Rosenau d e s c r i b e s aspects of a  T h e r e h a v e b e e n a number  of studies i n v e s t i g a t i n g the channels f o r s o c i e t a l forces the decision-making process i n the United States.  36/ Rosenau,  op. c i t . ,  p.  concepts  37 / '  into  These  43.  3 7 / C o h e n , B e r n a r d C , "Mass C o m m u n i c a t i o n a n d F o r e i g n P o l i c y " , i n James N. R o s e n a u ( e d . ) , D o m e s t i c S o u r c e s o f F o r e i g n P o l i c y , (New Y o r k : The F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 6 7 ) . p. 195. J e w e l l , op. c i t . W a r r e n E. M i l l e r and D o n a l d E. S t o k e s , " C o n s t i t u e n c y I n f l u e n c e i n C o n g r e s s " , A.P.S.R. (57) M a r c h 1963. p p . 4 5 - 5 7 . James R e s t o n , The A r t i l l e r y o f t h e P r e s s , Harper, 1967).  (New  York:  A.T. S t e e l e , The A m e r i c a n P e o p l e a n d C h i n a , (New M c G r a w - H i l l 1966). " ~  York:  - 25  -  s t u d i e s a r e o f l i m i t e d u s e , h o w e v e r , i n t h e s t u d y o f o t h e r , and 38 / e s p e c i a l l y underdeveloped, The  countries.  '  s p e c i f i c s o c i e t a l v a r i a b l e t o be c o n s i d e r e d  w i l l be t h e f r e e d o m o f t h e p r e s s .  T h i s i d e a i s t o some e x t e n t  covered i n the n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s t a t e of the p o l i t y but t h e p r e s s i s seen as a mechanism t h r o u g h w h i c h p r e s s u r e s may  a c t o r be a c t e d u p o n .  The  other  literature  a t . l e a s t t h r e e t y p e s o f mechanisms t h r o u g h w h i c h becomes an i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r .  contains  the  '  press itself  Silverstein thinks  t h e c a s e i n Burma f r o m 1950-1956 when t h e 39/  p a r t i e s w e r e i n an e m b r y o n i c s t a g e .  here  societal  I n some c a s e s t h e p r e s s  becomes i n e f f e c t an o p p o s i t i o n p a r t y . t h i s was  here  The  political  p r e s s may  a l s o serve  e i t h e r as a r e f l e c t i o n o r a moulder o f a g e n e r a l i z e d p u b l i c opinion.  The  l a t t e r f u n c t i o n w o u l d seem t o be  i n n a t i o n s such as I n d i a and i s v e r y low.  far less  Burma w h e r e n e w s p a p e r  likely  circulation  In t h i s r o l e o f . e i t h e r r e f l e c t o r or moulder of  p u b l i c o p i n i o n t h e p r e s s may decision-makers  and  a l s o s e r v e as a l i n k  the p u b l i c .  between  I t c o u l d become t h e  t h r o u g h w h i c h more g e n e r a l s o c i e t a l f a c t o r s e n t e r t h e 40/ making p r o c e s s . '  channel decision-  38/ W i l l i a m ' E . P o r t e r , "Mass c o m m u n i c a t i o n s f r o m t h e g r o u n d - u p p a r t way: a r e v i e w " , J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n , V o l . X, No. 1, pp. 1 1 7 - 1 2 1 . 39/ S i l v e r s t e i n , o p . c i t . , p. 4 0 / C o h e n , op.  c i t . , p.  195.  131.  - 26 -  The which  a t t i t u d e o f t h e p r e s s toward  the nation with  the interaction i s taking place i s the attribute of the  p r e s s t h a t w i l l be l o o k e d a t . The a t t i t u d e o f t h e p r e s s be c l a s s i f i e d a s e i t h e r h o s t i l e o r n o t h o s t i l e . in  a n a t i o n . w o u l d be h o s t i l e t o w a r d . t h e  i n t e r a c t i o n i s t a k i n g . p l a c e i f papers  will  The p r e s s  n a t i o n w i t h which the  accounting f o r half or  more o f t h e c i r c u l a t i o n c o n t a i n e d e d i t o r i a l s c o n c e r n i n g t h e n a t i o n i n q u e s t i o n h a l f o r more o f w h i c h stronger negative p o l i c i e s toward.the of  featured c a l l s f o r  nation, denunciations  e x i s t i n g p o l i c i e s as t o o ' s o f t ' o r n e g a t i v e a l l e g a t i o n s  the p o l i c i e s ,  about  l e a d e r s , or people of the n a t i o n .  Governmental: V a r i a b l e s : "Governmental v a r i a b l e s r e f e r t o those aspects o f a government's . s t r u c t u r e t h a t l i m i t o r enhance t h e f o r e i g n  policy  41/ c h o i c e s made b y d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s " . i s r e p l e t e w i t h hypotheses governmental  '  Foreign policy  literature  concerning the e f f e c t of d i f f e r e n t  s t r u c t u r e s upon p o l i c y making.  Farrell's  book  c o n t a i n s two a r t i c l e s u p o n t h e e f f e c t o f d e m o c r a t i c a n d t o t a l i 42/ t a r i a n g o v e r n m e n t a l . s t r u c t u r e s upon p o l i c y making. i d e o l o g i c a l p e n e t r a t i o n of the Soviet bureaucracy  '  The  i s c i t e d as  41/  R o s e n a u / o p . c i t , p. 4 3 .  42/  N o r t o n E. L o n g , "Open a n d C l o s e d S y s t e m s " i n F a r r e l l , op. c i t . , p p . 1 5 5 - 1 6 6 . R. B a r r y F a r r e l l , " F o r e i g n P o l i c i e s of. Open a n d C l o s e d P o l i t i c a l S o c i e t i e s " i n F a r r e l l , op.: c i t . , p p . 167-208.  - 27 -  making t h e bureaucracy i n e f f e c t i v e i n p r e s e n t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s that d i f f e r  from those a l r e a d y c o n s i d e r e d by  d e c i s i o n makers. bureaucracy  the.political  The r e l a t i v e . i n d e p e n d e n c e o f . t h e  American  i s said to r e s u l t i n i t s playing.the r o l e of  a n o t h e r i n t e r e s t g r o u p whose v i e w s a r e t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t i n 43/ the p o l i c y making p r o c e s s . r e l e v a n t governmental  '  The b u r e a u c r a c y was c h o s e n a s t h e  s t r u c t u r e h e r e s i n c e t h e way i n w h i c h i t  p l a y s i t s r o l e as an i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r i n g . a n d p o l i c y g e n e r a t i n g o r g a n i z a t i o n c l e a r l y can l i m i t o r enhance t h e . f o r e i g n  policy  c h o i c e s made b y d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s a n d s i n c e t h e s t a t e o f d e v e l o p ment o f t h e b u r e a u c r a c y  i s o f t e n seen as t h e f a c t o r 44/  d i f f e r e n t styles of decision-making.  '  behind  Here t h e s i z e o f t h e  b u r e a u c r a c y measured by b u r e a u c r a t i c . p e r s o n n e l as a  percentage  o f t h e w o r k i n g age p o p u l a t i o n i s t a k e n a s t h e v a r i a b l e . bureaucracy that-employs  A  s i x . p e r c e n t o r more o f t h e w o r k i n g  age p o p u l a t i o n i s c o n s i d e r e d l a r g e . S y s t e m i c V a r i a b l e s a n d - P o l i c y Outcomes: The  p o l i c y making p r o c e s s c a n b e . i n f l u e n c e d by i n t e r n a l  variables that are properties of the national actor, the decision makers, t h e s o c i e t y o r t h e governmental  structure.  Policy  may  a l s o be a f f e c t e d b y v a r i a b l e s e x t e r n a l t o t h e . s t a t e a n d t h e s e are here c a l l e d systemic v a r i a b l e s .  43/  B r z e z i n s k i , op. c i t . ,  passim.  44/  Joseph L a Palombara ( e d . ) , B u r e a u c r a c y and P o l i t i c a l Development-, P r i n c e t o n , .New J e r s e y , P r i n c e t o n U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1963.  - 28 -  P o l i c y i s the r e l a t i o n s h i p of a governmental u n i t t o i t s environment. of  this  P o l i c y outcomes are c o n c r e t e m a n i f e s t a t i o n s  policy. These two v a r i a b l e s are t r e a t e d t o g e t h e r s i n c e they  can  be viewed as c o n s t i t u t i n g flows i n o p p o s i t e d i r e c t i o n s through  l i n k a g e s c o n n e c t i n g sub-system t o system.  Systemic v a r i a b l e s  are  i n p u t s t o the sub-system from the system and p o l i c y outcomes  are  i n p u t s from the sub-system to the system.  They i n v o l v e the  same problems of d e f i n i t i o n , d a t a - g a t h e r i n g and c o d i n g . At  the broadest l e v e l both s i t u a t i o n s take p l a c e i n  a loose b i - p o l a r system.  Although many o f the elements of the  s i t u a t i o n , such as the e x i s t e n c e of I n d i a and Burma as nona l i g n e d s t a t e s , may  have been determined by t h i s system i t s use  as the r e l e v a n t system d i d not seem as f r u i t f u l as the use o f a more l i m i t e d system c o n t a i n i n g o n l y the a c t o r s i n the boundary disputes.  I n t e r a c t i o n s w i t h i n these systems would be more  s p e c i f i c and would p r o b a b l y vary more i n the s h o r t time p e r i o d under c o n s i d e r a t i o n . the  T h i s v a r i a n c e would make the task of r e l a t i n g  v a r i a b l e t o outputs an e a s i e r one.  The r e l e v a n t systems  will  be the dyads China and I n d i a and Burma and China and the i n t e r a c t i o n s , those c o n c e r n i n g the boundary  disputes.  Because o f the d e a r t h of work on the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of outputs 45/  45/ '. two types of problems, a l t h o u g h - p r e s e n t i n l o o k i n g a t  E u l a u , Heinz & Eyestone, Robert, " P o l i c y Maps of C i t y C o u n c i l s and P o l i c y Outcomes: A Developmental A n a l y s i s " , American P o l i t i c a l Science Review, (March, 1968), pp. 124-143. Rummell, op. c i t . S c o t t , op. c i t .  - 29 -  any v a r i a b l e s i n the p r e v i o u s s t a g e s , become e s p e c i a l l y r e l e v a n t here.  Singer d e s i g n a t e s these problems as f a c t - f i n d i n g problems 46/  and data-making problems.  '  A t the f a c t - f i n d i n g l e v e l Burma  r e p r e s e n t s c l o s e t o the worst type of case. i n p u t s and outputs was sources.  gathered.from  A l l i n f o r m a t i o n on  secondary  descriptive  I n d i a r e p r e s e n t s a much more f a v o u r a b l e type of  situ-  a t i o n with the Government White Papers o s t e n s i b l y i n c l u d i n g a l l notes and l e t t e r s exchanged between Indian and China c o n c e r n i n g the s i t u a t i o n , p u b l i s h e d by a government w i t h a good r e p u t a t i o n r e g a r d i n g such t h i n g s , showing no i r r e g u l a r i t i e s when compared w i t h such other sources of documents as Ambekar or the documents from Peking nor any i n t e r n a l i r r e g u l a r i t i e s . The New  Sources such as  York Times Index and F a c t s on F i l e were of l i t t l e use i n  l o o k i n g a t these very s p e c i f i c , i n t e r a c t i o n s t a k i n g p l a c e p r i m a r i l y w i t h i n the r e g i o n a l system.  Regional sources l i k e A s i a n  Recorder r e p o r t e d events a t a l e v e l s i m i l a r t o t h a t of the d e s c r i p t i v e s t u d i e s used f o r the Burmese case but i n no approached  the completeness.of  the Indian White Papers.  problems o v e r l a p those o f . t h e data-making nature. f a c t s such as those c o l l e c t e d f o r the paper i n a way  the problem of what comprises  way These  When u s i n g comparative  a . u n i t emerges.. Most of the  u n i t s i n the Burmese case seem t o be of a l a r g e r magnitude than those i n the Indian case. 46/  Comparable data i n the  secondary  S i n g e r , J . David, "Data-making i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l R e l a t i o n s " , B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n c e , (Jan. 1965), p. 69.  - 30 s o u r c e s on the I n d i a n c a s e c o n s i s t s o f l e t t e r s exchanged between h e a d s o f s t a t e and  some o f what seem t o be t h e more  important  n o t e s a r e r e p o r t e d w h i l e a l m o s t none o f t h e p r o t e s t n o t e s w e r e mentioned.  I n a n a t t e m p t t o make t h e d a t a somewhat more c o m p a r -  able l e t t e r s of p r o t e s t which accounted  f o r one h u n d r e d  e i g h t e e n o f t h e I n d i a n o u t p u t s were e x c l u d e d f r o m t h e part of the a n a l y s i s .  and  compartive  F o r t h e Burmese d a t a , I had a l s o  to  assume t h a t i n c o m p l e t e n e s s d i d n o t b i a s t h e s a m p l e i n e i t h e r positive or a negative  a  direction.  In v i e w o f the above s t a t e m e n t s  and t h o s e s u c h a s  the  following . The New Y o r k T i m e s was u s e d i n i t i a l l y and c o m p a r e d to the other sources. L i t t l e i n f o r m a t i o n not r e c o r d e d e l s e w h e r e was f o u n d i n t h e A s i a n R e c o r d e r , A s i a n A l m a n a c , K e e s i n g ' s and F a c t s On F i l e w e r e u t i l i z e d f o r most o f the d a t a c o l l e c t i o n . Within t h e s e s o u r c e s t h e c o v e r a g e o f s t a t e s and e v e n t s was v e r y u n e v e n . The o p p o s i t e was t r u e f o r t h e A s i a n Almanac. Both of these underreported A u s t r a l i a . . . F o r some s t a t e s and t y p e s o f o u t p u t s t h e d a t a w e r e more a v a i l a b l e t h a n o t h e r s . 47/ F i v e s o u r c e s — The New Y o r k T i m e s I n d e x , New I n t e r n a t i O n a l Yearbook,' K e e s i n g ' s C o n t e m p o r a r y A r c h i v e s , F a c t s On F i l e , and t h e B r i t a n n i c a Book o f t h e Y e a r — w e r e combed f o r d a t a w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e s e measures. K e e s i n g ' s Contempora r y A r c h i v e s was f o u n d l e a s t p r o d u c t i v e o f d a t a / a n d , t h e r e f o r e , was u s e d o n l y i n t h e v e r y b e g i n ning of the data c o l l e c t i o n . 4 8 / Some a n a l y s i s o f t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e s e w i d e l y u s e d w o u l d be v e r y h e l p f u l . Bill,  sources  49/ '  47/  Moul,  seminar  p a p e r , p.  8.  48/  Rummel, R u d o l p h J . , " D i m e n s i o n s o f C o n f l i c t B e h a v i o r W i t h i n and B e t w e e n N a t i o n s " , G e n e r a l S y s t e m s ; Yearbook of the S o c i e t y f o r G e n e r a l Systems R e s e a r c h , ( 1 9 6 3 ) , p. 6.  49/  N a r o l l , R a o u l , D a t a Q u a l i t y - C o n t r o l — A New Research T e c h n i q u e , (New Y o r k : The F r e e P r e s s o f G l e n c o e , 1962) pp. 1.-3:6.  - 31 -  P o l i c y o u t c o m e s f o r I n d i a a n d Burma a n d i n p u t s f r o m China  have s i m p l y been coded p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e .  negatively include tion of a claim;  (1) a c c u s a t i o n s ;  (2) p r o t e s t s ; (3) p r e s e n t a -  (4) w a r n i n g s o r t h r e a t s ; (5) r e j e c t i o n s o f  proposals f o reasing of tension; for  settlement of the dispute;  (6) r e j e c t i o n s o f p r o p o s a l s  (7) r e j e c t i o n s o f a l l e g a t i o n s  o r p r o t e s t s ; (8) r e j e c t i o n s o f c l a i m s . include  Outcomes coded  Those c o d e d  positively  (1) t h e m a k i n g o f a p r o p o s a l f o r t h e r e d u c t i o n o f t e n s i o n ;  (2) t h e m a k i n g o f a p r o p o s a l f o r s e t t l e m e n t o f t h e d i s p u t e s ; (3) t h e a c c e p t a n c e  of claims;  (5) t h e a c c e p t a n c e  o f p r o p o s a l s f o r r e d u c t i o n o f t e n s i o n ; (6)  the acceptance  (4) t h e o f f e r i n g o f a c o n c e s s i o n ;  o f p r o p o s a l s f o r s e t t l e m e n t o f t h e d i s p u t e ; (7)  any o u t c o m e t h a t r e p r e s e n t s a " s o f t e n i n g " o f t h e p r e v i o u s  The  stand.  F o u r P r o c e s s V a r i a b l e s a n d P o l i c y Outcomes i n Burma and I n d i a  Idiosyncratic Variables: S i n c e b o t h U Nu and N e h r u , a s P r i m e M i n i s t e r s ,  took  s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t i n f o r e i g n p o l i c y , N e h r u a c t i n g a s h i s own f o r e i g n m i n i s t e r a n d U Nu u s u a l l y o v e r s h a d o w i n g t h e many d i f f e r e n t f o r e i g n m i n i s t e r s t h a t h e l d o f f i c e i n Burma, t h e i r s w i l l i d i o s y n c r a t i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s examined. w i t h data i n measuring t h i s v a r i a b l e .  be t h e o n l y  T h e r e was some p r o b l e m Speeches r e p o r t e d i n  newspapers, r e c o r d s o f p a r l i a m e n t a r y debates,  and p u b l i s h e d  c o l l e c t i o n s o f s p e e c h e s were t h e most r e a d i l y . a v a i l a b l e They w e r e a l s o t h e l e a s t s a t i s f a c t o r y , a s s t a t e m e n t s  sources.  taken as  a r e f l e c t i o n o f i d i o s y n c r a t i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s had p r o b a b l y a l r e a d y been impinged  upon b y o t h e r p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e s .  This  -  was  e s p e c i a l l y the  o f w h i c h was  32  case w i t h the  i n the  form of  -  information  speeches where t h e r e  a confounding of h i s value  s y s t e m and  systemic  p r e d o m i n a n c e o f Burmese i n d e p e n d e n c e as s y s t e m was  c e r t a i n l y h i g h l i g h t e d by  l e a s t p r i m a r i l y concerned w i t h the  removed f r o m t h e  the  an e l e m e n t i n h i s  any  t h a t were n o t  designed f o r s p e c i f i c  U Nu's  plays  Examples of  and  The value  situation t o be  at  A better  source  issues  further  process i n e i t h e r time or i s s u e  f o u n d i n the w r i t i n g s of, the  issues.  leader  same v a l u e s .  T h i s t y p e was  specific  be  influences.  a c t o r s ' r e f l e c t i o n s on  policy-making  almost a l l .  seemed t o  the precarious  o f Burma t h a t p r o b a b l y w o u l d h a v e f o r c e d  o f d a t a w o u l d seem t o be  on U Nu,  area.  a c t o r s , e s p e c i a l l y those  audiences or i n r e l a t i o n  t h i s type of w r i t i n g would  Nehru's L e t t e r s from J a i l .  These d a t a ,  to  be however,  p r e s e n t the p r o b l e m o f l i n k a g e w i t h the i s s u e a t hand because t h e y a r e removed f r o m the p r o c e s s under c o n s i d e r a t i o n . as d i a r i e s d u r i n g avoid  any  very  f i r s t two The  impingement of o t h e r  s p e c i f i c problem but  recent  situations.  t y p e s of  and  s o u r c e s w i t h t h e two  N e h r u i s i n no  analysis to f i n d justified  would not  way  more r e l i a b l e p i c t u r e .  and  be.available  for the  t y p e s of problems i n mind.  idiosyncraticcharacteristics  systematic.  s t a t e m e n t s where the  i n terms of a value  factors  I h a v e , i n t h i s c a s e , r e l i e d on  f o l l o w i n g d e l i n e a t i o n of the  o f U Nu  such  t h e r e l e v a n t p e r i o d c o u l d t o some d e g r e e  both the problem of the  l i n k a g e t o the  Data  . The  use  of  content  a c t o r s performance i s  s y s t e m w o u l d have g i v e n  a much  - 33  I n . t h e c a s e o f U Nu, and  one  value, that of the  attainment  l a t e r t h e m a i n t e n a n c e o f i n d e p e n d e n c e seems t o h a v e b e e n  paramount. and  -  T h i s v a l u e o c c u r s t h r o u g h o u t b o t h h i s own  the d i s c u s s i o n s of o t h e r s concerning  t o U Nu's except  p l a y , The  People  him.  I n an i n t r o d u c t i o n  Win .Through, H u n t e r s a y s  t h i s o b j e c t i v e (his country's  discussions  s e c u r i t y and  "Everything  sovereignty),  50/ i s subordinate  i n him."  The  play i t s e l f  l o o k s a t a Communist  i n s u r r e c t i o n i n Burma w i t h t h e m a j o r theme c o u c h e d i n t e r m s o f the t h r e a t t o the  s e c u r i t y o f t h e n a t i o n and  t o no o t h e r  values.  T h i s g o a l seems t o h a v e e c l i p s e d e s p e c i a l l y any r e l a t i n g to the e x t e r n a l world. i m p o r t a r e e x p l a i n e d n o t on nor  on  Many p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s o f  the b a s i s of t h e i r i n t r i n s i c  t h e b a s i s o f - t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p t o any  t h a t o f Burmese s e c u r i t y . f o r e i g n p o l i c y has  The  values  merit  higher value  d e c i s i o n to f o l l o w a  b e e n e x p l a i n e d on t h e s e  great  grounds.  I n e x p l a i n i n g t h e Burmese p o s i t i o n on t h e  save  neutralist 51/ ' Korean  s i t u a t i o n U Nu s a i d A s m a l l weak n a t i o n l i k e o u r s , h o w s o e v e r we " s t r e n g t h e n our d e f e n s e s , can n e v e r s u c c e s s f u l l y d e f e n d o u r s e l v e s a l o n e . . . a s , soon as a g g r e s s i o n s t a r t e d i n S o u t h K o r e a , t h e U.N. w e n t t o i t s a s s i stance. T h i s h a s s e t up a n o b l e p r e c e d e n t . Hencef o r t h , i f aggression occurs elsewhere t h e r e too t h e U.N. must s t e p i n . 52/ 50/  E d w a r d H u n t e r i n h i s i n t r o d u c t i o n t o U Nu,: The P e o p l e Win T h r o u g h , (New Y o r k : T a p l i n g e r P u b l i s h i n g Company, 1 9 5 7 ) , p. 2.  51/  B u t w e l l , R i c h a r d , U Nu of: Burma, ( S t a n f o r d , C a l i f o r n i a : S t a n f o r d U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 3 ) , pp. 1 7 2 - 1 7 4 .  52/  Hunter, op.  c i t . , p.  45.  - 34  Recognition  o f C h i n a i n 194 9 was  o f Burmese  -  a l s o r a t i o n a l i z e d p u r e l y i n terms  interests: Be f r i e n d l y w i t h a l l f o r e i g n c o u n t r i e s . Our t i n y n a t i o n c a n n o t have the e f f r o n t e r y t o q u a r r e l w i t h any p o w e r . 5 3 /  I n h i s b o o k , Burma U n d e r t h e J a p a n e s e , U Nu  explains that his  m a j o r r e a s o n f o r p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n t h e Ba Maw was  to avoid a r i f t  ist  forces.  and  administration  the consequent weakening of the n a t i o n a l -  54/ •  At this level  then h i s value  orderings are c l e a r l y defined. areas.  He  s y s t e m and  This i s not the case i n  i s r e p o r t e d t o have g r e a t l y - v a l u e d the f o r c e  priority other of  55/ r e l i g i o n , any  religion,  ' and  e s p e c i a l l y t h a t of Buddhism.  s p e n t a t l e a s t f o u r h o u r s a day  i n r e l i g i o u s observances.  He His  i n c r e a s i n g a t t e n t i o n t o B u d d h i s m seems t o h a v e i n f l u e n c e d h i s political t h a t one  a c t i o n s and  ideology.  o f t h e most i m p o r t a n t  S t a t e s i n 1955  was  He  i s reported  the propagation  o f Buddhism.  (good o r c i t . , p.  '  One  of  United the  t h a t the d e t e r m i n i s t i c  i n c o n t r a d i c t i o n to the Buddhist  c r e a t i o n o f karma  felt  reasons f o r h i s v i s i t t o the 56/  r e a s o n s f o r h i s r e j e c t i o n o f M a r x i s m was i d e o l o g y was  t o have  d o c t r i n e of  the  bad).  53/  J o h n s t o n e , op.  58.  54/  U Nu, Burma U n d e r t h e J a p a n e s e , p. 93.  55/  T h i s was a p p a r e n t d u r i n g t h e r e l i g i o u s s c h o o l c r i s i s Burma a s r e p o r t e d i n B u t w e l l , o p . c i t . , p. 66.  56/  Loc. c i t .  (London: M a c m i l l a n ,  1954), in  - 35 -  I n a s p o t t y a n d s u p e r f i c i a l f a s h i o n he h a s e x p r e s s e d h i s v i e w s on t h e p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s . of a majority  The i d e a o f t h e i n a d v i s a b i l i t y  f o r c i n g i t s v i e w s o n a m i n o r i t y was a  theme t h r o u g h o u t t h e . r e l i g i o u s s c h o o l c r i s i s . t h i s a s p e c t o f U Nu's v a l u e  recurrent  In discussing  system Nehru has s a i d  Nu i s n o t a s p e c u l a t i v e t h i n k e r . He t e n d s t o a c c e p t an e x i s t a n t b e l i e f s y s t e m l i k e B u d d h i s m and a c t w i t h i n i t . H o w e v e r , B u d d h i s m p e r m i t s i n t e l l e c t u a l experimentation within i t s p a r t i c u l a r f r a m e w o r k a n d t h i s Nu e n g a g e s i n . We have t a l k e d about democracy's p r o s p e c t s i n t h i s "or t h a t country but n o t about t h e idea o f democracy.57/ At  o n e l e v e l , a s i n d i c a t e d i n N e h r u ' s s t a t e m e n t , U Nu  through h i s adoption of Buddhist philosophy set of values be  that are c u l t u r a l l y derived  possesses a stable  and c o u l d  c l a s s i f i e d as a t r a d i t i o n - o r i e n t e d p e r s o n a l i t y .  a r e , however, a t a v e r y specific  l e v e l there  high l e v e l of a b s t r a c t i o n .  These  and t h e i r  dependent upon h i s peer  groups, and n o t t h e l a r g e r Buddhist c u l t u r e . as described  values  A t a more  i s some e v i d e n c e t h a t h i s v a l u e s  implementation are to a large extent  occupation,  therefore  During t h e Japanese  i n h i s book, h i s a t t i t u d e toward t h e  J a p a n e s e was t o a l a r g e d e g r e e d e p e n d e n t u p o n t h e v i e w s o f • Ba  Swe, a f e l l o w p o l i t i c a l p r i s o n e r .  H i s very decisions t o  s e e k o f f i c e i n 1 9 4 2 , 1 9 4 7 , a n d 1957 a r e e x p l a i n e d wishes of  57/  colleagues:  I b i d . , p . 80.  i n terms o f t h e  - 36 -  I had t o c o m p l y w i t h e l e c t i o n from Merqui on one c o n d i t i o n , t o when t h e C o n s t i t u e n t function. (1947).58/ A t l e a s t one upon group  observer  the request t o stand f o r C o n s t i t u e n c y but I i n s i s t e d p e r m i t me t o l e a v e o f f i c e Assembly completed i t s  d e s c r i b e s him  as b e i n g g r e a t l y  dependent  approval . . . t h i s o v e r - s e n s i t i v i t y has been a problem. Nu's d i f f i c u l t i e s w i t h Kyaw N y e i n f r o m 1956-1958 b e f o r e t h e two s p l i t p o l i t i c a l l y , w e r e p a r t l y o c c a s i o n e d b y h i s f e e l i n g t h a t he was n o t g e t t i n g t h e r e c o g n i t i o n he d e s e r v e d . I n h i s 195 6 l e t t e r t o Kyaw N y e i n , he w r o t e t h a t h e , a s w e l l a s A u n g San, had p l a y e d "an i m p o r t a n t p a r t i n t h e i n d e pendence s t r u g g l e , I have a d e s i r e t h a t t h e p e o p l e s h o u l d know a b o u t t h i s . " Nu was a l s o a n n o y e d when B r i t i s h P r i m e M i n i s t e r A n t h o n y Eden on a s t o p o v e r i n R a n g o o n . . . c a b l e d Nu t o meet him and t o b r i n g Kyaw N y e i n and Ba Swe w i t h h i m . "Why Ba Swe and Kyaw N y e i n a l s o " Nu i s r e p o r t e d t o h a v e s a i d , " I am P r i m e M i n i s t e r and t h e P r e s i d e n t o f t h e . A.F.P.F.L."59/ U Nu's  v a l u e system then  v a l u e o f i n d e p e n d e n c e and all  seems t o c o n t a i n t h e  the maintenance of i n t e g r i t y ,  o t h e r v a l u e s a r e l o o s e l y d e f i n e d and  T h i s f i n d i n g may  be  while  w i t h no d e t e r m i n a n t  t o some e x t e n t t h e r e s u l t o f l a c k o f  t i o n b u t many s t u d e n t s o f Burmese p o l i t i c s and p e o p l e w o r k e d w i t h U Nu  paramount  order.  informa-  who  h a v e made comments t h a t t e n d t o r e i n f o r c e  have this  estimation.  58/  I b i d . , p.  54.  59/  I b i d . , p.  84.  60/ , E s p e c i a l l y W a l i n s k y who a t t r i b u t e s a l a r g e p a r t o f t h e c h a o t i c s t a t e o f Burmese e c o n o m i c p l a n n i n g t o U Nu's f l u c t u a t i n g p o l i c i e s i n L o u i s J . W a l i n s k y , E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t o f Burma, 1 9 5 1 - 6 0 , (New Y o r k : The T w e n t i e t h C e n t u r y F u n d , 1 9 6 2 ) , p a s s i m and "The R i s e and F a l l o f U Nu" P a c i f i c A f f a i r s , ( F a l l and W i n t e r , 1 9 6 5 - 6 6 ) , p p . 2 6 9 - 2 8 1 .  - 37  -  H i s g o a l s w o u l d seem to- be ways.  His strong Buddhist  c u l t u r a l l y derived i n  o r i e n t a t i o n represents  the  stable  c u l t u r a l l y d e r i v e d g o a l s found i n the t r a d i t i o n - d i r e c t e d l i t y . a n d h i s r e l i a n c e on t h e d e c i s i o n s and colleagues represent  the  two  the approval  fluctuating c u l t u r a l l y derived  personof  his  goals"  of the o t h e r - d i r e c t e d p e r s o n a l i t y . The on  primary  group a p p r o v a l  g o a l i s , of course,  seems t o l e a d t o an  areas t h a t i s heightened these  other values.  by t h e  s t a b l e but the  instability  l a c k o f any  Since these  lower  dependence  i n a l l other  c l e a r d e l i n e a t i o n of  l e v e l g o a l s , such  as  n e u t r a l i s m , - s e e m a l s o t o be v i e w e d a s means t o t h e p a r a m o u n t g o a l , there i s a f u r t h e r tendency toward  instability.  I n d i s c u s s i n g Nehru i t i s p o s s i b l e t o l o o k a t h i s r e a c t i o n s in  some s i m i l a r  s i t u a t i o n s (a) t h e  the t h r e a t of Japanese o c c u p a t i o n (c) t h e K o r e a n s i t u a t i o n ;  s t r u g g l e f o r independence;  (b)  (rather than actual occupation);  (d) t h e d e c i s i o n t o t a k e a  neutralist  policy. Nehru's goal complicated  one  s y s t e m seems a much more c o m p r e h e n s i v e  t h a n was  o f a number o f g o a l s many t i m e s ) no one  U Nu's.  Because of the i n t e r r e l a t e d n e s s  (an i n t e r r e l a t e d n e s s he  goal stands  pendence i n the case of U I n d e p e n d e n c e was,  has  out as p r o m i n e n t l y  commented u p o n as d o e s  inde-  Nu. of course,  t h e r e t e n t i o n o f i n d e p e n d e n c e was Burma.  and  a high ranking value  while  n o t a r e a l p r o b l e m as i t was  B u t N e h r u l i n k s i n d e p e n d e n c e b o t h t o an i d e a l e c o n o m i c  in  - 38  s y s t e m , w h e r e t h e r e i s no  -  e x p l o i t a t i o n o f t h e m a s s e s , and  to  an  i d e a l i n t e r n a t i o n a l s y s t e m i n a much more c o m p l i c a t e d manner U Nu's  s i m p l e d e s i r e t h a t Burma be  left  alone.  Nehru v i s u a l i z e s s e v e r a l types of i n t e r n a t i o n a l and  sees the o n l y r a t i o n a l course  somewhat l i k e K a p l a n ' s  a s one  than  d i r e c t e d toward  "universal international  systems a  system  62 / system". '  S m a l l s t a t e s w i l l d i s a p p e a r and g i v e p l a c e e i t h e r t o some w o r l d F e d e r a t i o n o r t o t h r e e , o r p o s s i b l y f o u r F e d e r a t i o n s or Empire S t a t e s . I f the l a t t e r e m e r g e , t h e r e w i l l be c o n t i n u i n g h o s t i l i t y and c o n f l i c t , b o t h i n t e r n a l and e x t e r n a l . Internal b e c a u s e an E m p i r e S t a t e n e c e s s a r i l y i n v o l v e s t h e e n f o r c e d s u b j u g a t i o n o f o t h e r p e o p l e s and n a t i o n s which w i l l c o n t i n u a l l y attempt t o f r e e themselves. E x t e r n a l , b e c a u s e t h e r e w i l l be r i v a l r y b e t w e e n t h e d i f f e r e n t Empire S t a t e s or Federations.63/ Nehru's r e a c t i o n s t o e v e n t s d u r i n g the Second World i n d i c a t e how  other v a l u e s , e s p e c i a l l y those  concerning the  inter-  n a t i o n a l s y s t e m i m p i g n e d o n h i s d e s i r e f o r i n d e p e n d e n c e and he w e n t t h r o u g h  the process of o r d e r i n g these  War  how  values  I w a n t e d I n d i a t o t a k e an e a g e r and a c t i v e p a r t i n the mighty c o n f l i c t , f o r I f e l t t h a t h i g h p r i n c i p l e s w o u l d be a t s t a k e and o u t o f t h i s c o n f l i c t w o u l d come g r e a t and r e v o l u t i o n a r y c h a n g e s i n I n d i a and t h e w o r l d . . . B u t I was c o n v i n c e d t h a t o n l y a s a f r e e c o u n t r y and an e q u a l c o u l d she f u n c t i o n . 6 4 /  61/  Norman, D o r o t h y , ( e d . ) , N e h r u , The F i r s t S i x t y Y e a r s , York: The J o h n Day Company, 1 9 6 5 ) , 1 1 , pp. 3 0-31.  62/  K a p l a n , M o r t o n A., S y s t e m s and P r o c e s s i n I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s , (New Y o r k : J o h n W i l e y & S o n s , I n c . , 1 9 6 7 ) , p.  63/  Norman,'. l o c . c i t .  64/  I b i d . , 1 1 , p.  141.  (New  45.  - 39 -  S a t y a g r a h a ( a d h e r e n c e t o t r u t h and t h e p r a c t i c e of n o n - v i o l e n t r e s i s t a n c e ) i s not immediately i n d i c a t e d . . . I t h i n k i t w o u l d be w r o n g f o r u s a t t h i s p a r t i c u l a r moment when B r i t a i n i s i n p e r i l t o t a k e a d v a n t a g e o f h e r d i s t r e s s and r u s h a t her t h r o a t . / 6 5  Nehru's broad Korean s i t u a t i o n  and o f t e n p h i l o s o p h i c a l a p p r o a c h  s t a n d s i n g r e a t c o n t r a s t t o Nu's  t o the  reaction  quoted  above I t i s e x t r a o r d i n a r y t h a t we s h o u l d s e e k t o h e l p o u r f r i e n d s i n ways w h i c h k i l l o r d e s t r o y t h e m . I t i s i n d e e d a s t r a n g e c o m m e n t a r y on t h e way o f v i o l e n c e w h i c h we a r e somehow f o r c e d t o a d o p t i n the present world. 66/ N e u t r a l i s m and I n d i a ' s p o l i c y t o w a r d C h i n a a r e d e f i n e d as h a v i n g i n t r i n s i c  value  D r . K u n z u i r e f e r r e d t o o u r n o n - a l i g n m e n t and t o P a n c h s h e e l a s a s l o g a n and a n o p i a t e . I c l a i m that these p r i n c i p l e s are right...The present Government w i l l h o l d t o n o n a l i g n m e n t because i t i s a matter of p r i n c i p l e , not of opportunism or the convenience of the day.67/ A l t h o u g h no one there i s a d i f f i c u l t y  g o a l s t a n d s o u t a s i n U Nu's  means.  The  N e h r u was  T h i s l e n d s a much g r e a t e r  t h a n i n t h e c a s e o f Nu  v a l u e system would a l s o  n o t a r e l i g i o u s man  1 1 , p.  and  i n o r d e r i n g the goals, they are w e l l defined  and a t a v e r y s p e c i f i c l e v e l . t o the system  case  and  where most g o a l s a r e seem t o be h i g h l y  really  internalized.  b e i n g much more W e s t e r n i z e d  65/  Ibid.,  21.  66/  S p e e c h t o t h e R a j y a S a b b a , J u n e 12,  67/  Reply d u r i n g debate  i n Rajya  stability  1953.  Sabha, Sept.  10/59.  than  - 40  U Nu,  -  n o t d e e p l y embued w i t h t r a d i t i o n a l c u l t u r e .  much e v i d e n c e o f a n y d e p e n d e n c e u p o n t h e norms and of  groups i n the c u l t u r e nor even from  f a t h e r and G a n d h i .  The  Nor  i s there  the  approval  such s t r o n g r e f e r e n t s as h i s  e a r l i e r h i s t o r y of h i s p o l i t i c a l  e x h i b i t s many s t r o n g d i s a g r e e m e n t s  w i t h h i s f a t h e r and  career the  con-  s e q u e n t g o i n g o f s e p a r a t e ways o n t h e p a r t i c u l a r p r o b l e m s w h e r e 68/ t h e r e was  disagreement.  '  The  f o l l o w i n g p o r t i o n o f one  l e t t e r s , concerning i n d i v i d u a l c i v i l  of  Gandhi's  disobedience h i n t s a t Nehru's  u n w i l l i n g n e s s t o f o l l o w , e v e n on s u c h a t a c t i c a l m a t t e r I f t h i s (the e f f e c t of i n d i v i d u a l c i v i l d i s o b e d i e n c e ) i s h a r d f o r you t o b e l i e v e , I would ask you t o suspend j u d g m e n t and w a t c h r e s u l t s . . . I know w h a t s t r a i n you a r e b e a r i n g i n g i v i n g me y o u r l o y a l t y . From t h e above f r a g m e n t a r y  evidence,  I would redraw  the  f o u r f o l d t a b l e as f o l l o w s Stable Internalized  Nehru  Culturally Derived  U Nu (higher l e v e l goals)  If hypothesized  Fluctuating  U Nu (lower l e v e l  i d i o s y n c r a t i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are important i t i s that Nehru w i l l  tend to look a t the d i s p u t e i n  t e r m s o f v a l u e s r e p r e s e n t i n g s u c h t h i n g s as " r i g h t " conduct H  2  U Nu w i l l  more t h a n w i l l U  Nu.  tend to disregard a l l other  values  s a v e t h e s e c u r i t y o f Burma i n t h e d i s p u t e .  68/  goals)  Norman, op.  c i t . , 1,  passim.  41 -  Nehru's d e c i s i o n s w i l l  tend  t o be more  t h a n w i l l U Nu's b e c a u s e h i s v a l u e more c l e a r l y d e f i n e d restricting  rigid  system i s  and t h e r e f o r e a  greater  force.  Societal Variable; Because of t h e u n a v a i l a b i l i t y o f d a t a the k i n d p r e v i o u s l y d e s c r i b e d  was n o t p o s s i b l e .  a measurement o f The o n l y a v a i l a b l e  i n d i c a t i o n of press opinion i n India i s i n the Sino-Indian  Border 69/  Issue  (October 1959-February 1961);  which contains  A Research Backgrounder  '  19 e d i t o r i a l s f r o m s e l e c t e d n e w s p a p e r s b e t w e e n t h e  dates indicated.  T a b l e 3 l i s t s t h e n e w s p a p e r s , . i n f o r m a t i o n on  t h e i r c i r c u l a t i o n , o n t h e i r p o l i t i c a l o r i e n t a t i o n , a n d on t h e i r representation  i n the Rasearch Backgrounder.  Besides  the general  l a c k of a v a i l a b i l i t y of t h i s type of  information a problem w i t h the information although  on t h i s v a r i a b l e i s t h a t  M a l l o r y ' s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n by p o l i t i c a l o r i e n t a t i o n would  seem t o be. h e l p f u l i n m a k i n g i n f e r e n c e s , f r o m k n o w l e d g e o f t h e e d i t o r i a l p o l i c i e s o f one paper, about t h e p o l i c i e s o f o t h e r  papers  w i t h a s i m i l a r c l a s s i f i c a t i o n he g i v e s no i n f o r m a t i o n o n how t h e s e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s were a r r i v e d a t .  I t w o u l d be i n t e r e s t i n g t o s t u d y  the e d i t o r i a l p o l i c i e s o f these papers f o r s e v e r a l i s s u e areas t o get data  some i n d i c a t i o n o f how v a l i d  a l s o cover o n l y E n g l i s h language d a i l i e s f o r I n d i a .  the. r e p o r t e d 69/  such i n f e r e n c e s might be.  Mallory's Since, of  d a i l y c i r c u l a t i o n i n The I n t e r n a t i o n a l Y e a r b o o k o f  (Hong K o n g , 1 9 6 1 ) , p a s s i m .  - 42 Table I I I PRESS OPINION IN. I N D I A No. O f Editorials , , P o l i t i c a l /Concerning Circulation ' Orientation ' China ?  Paper Amrita Bazar Patrika The  Statesman  Rindustan Standard  90,484  Pro-Congress  102,308  IndependentNationalist  81,333  No. o f Editorials Hostile Toward C h i n a  Independent  New  Leader  Independent  1  0  The  Mail  Independent  2  1  Nationalist  8  8  Independent  2  1  Nationalist  1  1  19  15  Indian Express Times o f  55,546  India  Hindu  13 2,3 28  1/ C i r c u l a t i o n f i g u r e s a r e f o r 1 9 6 6 , t h e f i r s t y e a r f o r w h i c h i n f o r m a t i o n was a v a i l a b l e . Total daily reported c i r c u l a t i o n i n 1966 was 1,319,345. International 1966, p . 2 7 1 . 2/  Political  Y e a r b o o k and S t a t e s m a n ' s . Who's "Who, Handbook, 1 9 6 1 , p. 10 9.  43  -  1,319,345, a t o t a l o f 832,012 was  a c c o u n t e d f o r by p a p e r s o f  o t h e r l a n g u a g e s , t h i s i s a s e r i o u s gap. c l e a r preponderance Backgrounder  There i s ,  of h o s t i l e e d i t o r i a l s .  seems t o be s l a n t e d  however, a  A l t h o u g h the Research  towards p r e s e n t i n g a p i c t u r e  of  70/ hostile  Indian opinion.  the p i c t u r e i s n o t too f a r from 71/  g i v e n by o t h e r o b s e r v e r s .  that  The C h i n e s e seem t o h a v e s h a r e d  t h e v i e w t h a t t h e I n d i a n p r e s s was p r e d o m i n a n t l y h o s t i l e and April  2 7 , 1959  on  t h e P e o p l e s D a i l y e s t i m a t e d t h a t between F e b r u a r y 1  24 and A p r i l of  7 t h e I n d i a n p r e s s had p u b l i s h e d o v e r 310,000 w o r d s 72/ " u n f r i e n d l y comments." I n Burma t h e o n l y p a p e r on w h i c h t h e r e i s any  e v i d e n c e i s The N a t i o n , a m a j o r E n g l i s h d a i l y i n R a n g o o n , w i t h a c i r c u l a t i o n o f 10,000 o u t o f a t o t a l Burmese n e w s p a p e r t i o n o f 101,650.  Its political  o r i e n t a t i o n has been d e s c r i b e d  i n d e p e n d e n t , p r o - W e s t e r n , and v i g o r o u s l y a n t i - c o m m u n i s t . p a p e r s w i t h a t o t a l c i r c u l a t i o n o f 54,750 h a v e b e e n  7 0/  Note the o v e r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of t h e e x t r e m e l y . h o s t i l e Express.  71/  T a n g , op_. c i t . ,  Other  knowledge Indian.  passim.  B r e c h e r , Menon, o p . c i t . ,  passim.  Sharokle Sabavala, "Gulf i n India" i n Research o p . c i t . , p. 52. T a n g , Op.  as  similarly  d e s c r i b e d . : The N a t i o n g a v e t h e Burmese p u b l i c i t s f i r s t  72/  circula-  c i t . , p.  596.  Backgrounder,  - 44  -  o f C h i n e s e i n c u r s i o n s i n t h e n o r t h i n J u l y 1956. were a p p a r e n t l y  panicky,  proclaiming  s q . m i l e s o f Burmese t e r r i t o r y .  73/ '  r e a c t i o n to the  with  196 0 A g r e e m e n t  Its  headlines  t h a t the C h i n e s e h e l d Whittam d e s c r i b e s  The  1,000 Nation.' s  The N a t i o n , u n d e r l e s s o f - a n o b l i g a t i o n t o be d i p l o m a t i c , s a i d t h a t t h e Burmese w e r e p a y i n g a h i g h p r i c e i n p r i n c i p l e , p r i d e , and e m o t i o n , i n o r d e r t o p u t t h e C h i n e s e i n a p o s i t i o n where t h e y w o u l d n e v e r a g a i n be a b l e t o b u l l y Burma w i t h o u t b r a n d i n g t h e m s e l v e s " a s a g g r e s s o r s ' . 74/ Some a c t i o n s and  s t a t e m e n t s o f Burmese l e a d e r s  i n d i c a t e t h a t most o f t h e p r e s s was I n 1957  Ba  Swe,  would  i n agreement with.The  Nation.  A c t i n g Prime M i n i s t e r , attempted to w i t h h o l d  infor-  75/ m a t i o n a s had U Nu  b e e n t h e p o l i c y up  until  1956.  i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e C h i n e s e g o v e r n m e n t was  criticized  i n Burma a t t h a t t i m e t h a t he  "to r e f r a i n from p u b l i s h i n g anything 76/ the n e g o t i a t i o n s . " On I n d i a and  On A p r x l 2 8 , being  so  (further) t h a t might  the b a s i s of t h i s  information, the press  c l a s s i f i e d as  jeopardize  74/  W h i t t a m , Daphne E., "The (Summer, 1 9 6 1 ) . p . 17 9. York Times I n d e x ,  Trager, l o c :c i t .  Sino-Burmese T r e a t y " , 1957.  i n both  hostile.  T r a g e r , F r a n k N., Burma f r o m K i n g d o m t o R e p u b l i c , ' F r e d e r i c k A. P r a e g e r , 1 9 6 6 ) , p. 241.  76/  press  '  Burma c o u l d be  New  severely  appealed to the  73/  7 5 / : The  1960  (New  Pacific  York: Affairs,  - 45 -  I n I n d i a p r e s s o p i n i o n seems t o h a v e b e e n r e f l e c t i v e broader  public opinion.  A l l o p p o s i t i o n p a r t i e s but the  of  I.CP.  • 77/ c a l l e d f o r s t r o n g e r measures a g a i n s t the C h i n e s e . According  '  t o Tang a f t e r d e s c r i b i n g o p p o s i t i o n v i e w s  on  t h e T i b e t a n e v e n t s o f 1959 T h i s s e n t i m e n t ( a n t a g o n i s m t o w a r d C h i n a ) was a l a r m i n g l y widespread. Indian residents i n numerous c i t i e s g a t h e r e d t o d e m o n s t r a t e b e f o r e t h e C h i n e s e Communist e m b a s s y and c o n s u l a t e s . 7 8 / On  t h e o c c a s i o n of Chou's A p r i l 17,  four p o l i t i c a l  parties,  Orissa Ganatantra  1960  visit  to Delhi  the P r a j a - S o c i a l i s t s , t h e J a n Sangh, t h e  Pareshad  and t h e R e p u b l i c a n P a r t y o r g a n i z e d 79/ . . anti-Chinese demonstrations. ' I f s o c i e t a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are important i t i s hypothesized  that  B o t h Burma and  India w i l l  produce n e g a t i v e p o l i c y  tend  to  outputs.  Governmental V a r i a b l e ; 8 0/' U s i n g R u s s e t t ' s 1959-61 s i x percent of the working  age  ' d a t a and  a c u t o f f p o i n t of  p o p u l a t i o n e m p l o y e d by t h e  bureau-  c r a c y , t e n b u r e a u c r a c i e s , t h o s e o f N o r w a y , Ghana, M a l a y a ,  Kenya,  Japan,  classified  Taiwan, Uganda, I n d i a , South  as s m a l l .  Korea  and N i g e r i a a r e  E i g h t b u r e a u c r a c i e s , , t h o s e o f New  77/  Research  Backgrounder,  p.  78/  T a n g , op_. c i t . , p. 596 .  79/  I b i d . , p.  80/  R u s s e t t , op_. c i t . ,  597. p.  70.  34.  Zealand, A u s t r a l i a ,  the  - 46  United and  -  K i n g d o m , Denmark, T r i n i d a d , t h e U n i t e d  West Germany a r e c l a s s i f i e d as l a r g e .  States,  France,  Figures from B r a i b a n t i  r e v e a l t h e Burmese b u r e a u c r a c y t o e m p l o y a p p r o x i m a t e l y o f t h e w o r k i n g age  population.  I t i s hypothesized The  The  S y s t e m i c V a r i a b l e and The  cent  that  i n e i t h e r Burma o r  Policy  p o l i c y outputs  per  '  governmental f a c t o r s w i l l  important  two  not  be  India.  Outputs:  considered  here are those  directly  r e l a t e d t o c e a s e f i r e agreements o r the r e d u c t i o n of b o r d e r t e n s i o n , t h e p r e p a r a t i o n f o r n e g o t i a t i o n , and a r e no  and  p o s i t i v e responses w i l l  a t t h e p r o b l e m o f m a g n i t u d e has Information  as t h a t on  on  still  i t i s assumed t h a t a l t h o u g h  n o t n e a r l y as c o m p l e t e t h e r e i s no or negative  been  there  outputs.  The  be  ignored.  Burmese p o l i c y o u t c o m e s was  I n d i a ' s but b o t h s e t s can  n e g a t i v e l y and  81/  Thus  o u t c o m e s r e l a t e d t o s u c h a r e a s as e c o n o m i c s a n c t i o n s . ' As  only the patterns of negative looked  the n e g o t i a t i o n s .  be  not  as d e t a i l e d  coded p o s i t i v e l y  or  i n f o r m a t i o n on Burma i s  b i a s i n favour of e i t h e r p o s i t i v e  d a t e f o r Burma had  t o be  c o l l e c t e d from  R a l p h B r a i b a n t i , (ed. ) , A s i a n B u r e a u c r a t i c S y s t e m s f r o m t h e B r i t i s h I m p e r i a l T r a d i t i o n , (Durham, N.C.: U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 6 ) , p. 398.  1  Emergent Duke  - 47  a number o f s e c o n d a r y s o u r c e s ,  -  /  w h i l e t h e d a t a f o r I n d i a came  f r o m t h e n o t e s and memoranda e x c h a n g e d  b e t w e e n I n d i a and  p u b l i s h e d i n t h e Government o f I n d i a ' s White  China  Papers.  T h e s e o u t c o m e s w e r e l i n k e d t o w h a t seemed t o be r e l e v a n t i n p u t s coming from C h i n a . i n t h e same way  The  i n p u t s have been  a s t h e o u t p u t s and i n c a s e s where no  i n p u t o r p u t p u t c o u l d be  the coded  specific  a s c e r t a i n e d t h e y w e r e c o d e d 0.  The  and o u t p u t f o r a c e r t a i n t i m e p e r i o d w e r e c o m b i n e d t o f o r m  input  an  83/ input-output  state.  F o r Burma t h e s t a t e s w e r e d e t e r m i n e d  intuitively  from the r e c o n s t r u c t i o n s of the events.appearing i n the sources.  secondary  I n t h e c a s e o f I n d i a most n o t e s and l e t t e r s w e r e i n  answer t o s p e c i f i c n o t e s o r a c t i o n s o f the C h i n e s e government. B r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n s o f t h e I n p u t s and o u t p u t s a r e c o n t a i n e d i n t h e a p p e n d i c e s A and  B.  82/  A m b e k a r , G.V. a n d D i v e k a r , V.D., Documents o n C h i n a ' s R e l a t i o n s w i t h S o u t h a n d S o u t h - e a s t A s i a ( 1 9 4 9 - 6 2 ) , (Bombay; Allied P u b l i s h e r s P r i v a t e L t d . , 1964). J o h n s t o n e , Burma's F o r e i g n P o l i c y . T a n g , Communist C h i n a T o d a y . T i n k e r , Hugh, The U n i o n o f Burma, (London: Oxford U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1957). T r a g e r , Burma f r o m K i n g d o m t o R e p u b l i c . W h i t t a m , "The S i n o - B u r m e s e T r e a t y " .  83/  T h i s p r o c e s s o f l i n k i n g sequences of a c t i o n s i s d e r i v e d from: M c C l e l l a n d , C h a r l e s A., " A c t i o n S t r u c t u r e and Communic a t i o n i n Two I n t e r n a t i o n a l C r i s e s : Quemoy and B e r l i n " , B a c k g r o u n d , (Feb. 1 9 6 4 ) , p.p. 2 0 1 - 2 1 5 ; and f r o m A s h b y , W. R o s s , An I n t r o d u c t i o n t o C y b e r n e t i c s , (New Y o r k : John W i l e y & Sons, I n c . , 1 9 6 3 ) , e s p e c i a l l y c h a p t e r s 4 and 6.  - 48 T a b l e IV INPUT-OUTPUT.STATES FOR BURMA Time  Input  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13  (0) (+) (-) (-) (-) (+) (+) (+) (-) (+) (+) (+) (+)  Output (+) (+) (-) (+) (-) (+) (+) (+) (^) (-) (-) (-) (+)  Of e i g h t p o s s i b l e  Time  Input  Output  14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25  (+) (-) (-) (+)  (+ (((((((((+ (+ (+  (M  (-) (-) (+) (-) (0) (+) (+)  types of input-.output s t a t e s the  twenty-seven s t a t e s a r e d i s t r i b u t e d as f o l l o w s :  Table V DISTRIBUTION OF BURMESE INPUT-OUTPUT STATES Types (-)  (-)  (+.). (+) (-) (+) (+•). (0) (+) (0) (-) (0) (+) (0)  Number Of T i m e s A p p e a r i n g 9 1 5 8 2 0 0 0  - 49 Figure I I  NUMBER OF NOTES CONCERNING BORDER INCIDENTS  35 34 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0  54  55  56  57  58  59  60 I  Indian Chinese  61  62  63  - 50 Figure I I I  NUMBER OF NOTES LODGING PROTESTS  54  55  56  57  58  59 Indian Chinese  60  61  62  - 51 -  With the extent of the data  84/ ' on t h e S i n o - I n d i a n  i t was p o s s i b l e t o s e p a r a t e , t h e e x c h a n g e s d e a l i n g w i t h ments f o r r e d u c i n g  arrange-  t e n s i o n , a c t u a l t e r r i t o r i a l c l a i m s , and  arrangements f o r n e g o t i a t i o n s from those p r o t e s t s and a l l e g a t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g to  dispute  dealing solely  t h e armed c l a s h e s .  with From 1954  t h e e n d o f 1962 t h e r e w e r e a t l e a s t 2 08 s u c h n o t e s e x c h a n g e d .  I n t h e Burmese s i t u a t i o n  t h e r e were o n l y two s h o r t p e r i o d s i n  w h i c h armed c l a s h e s o c c u r r e d exchanged over these  and t h e r e  events.  In Figure  exchanged i s p l o t t e d a g a i n s t time  a r e no d a t a on t h e n o t e s 1 t h e number o f n o t e s  ( a t s i x month p e r i o d s ) .  I t can  be s e e n t h a t t h e r e a r e s h a r p i n c r e a s e s i n t h e number o f n o t e s in  195 9 and i n 1 9 6 2 .  F i g u r e 2 p l o t s t h e number o f n o t e s l o d g i n g  formal p r o t e s t s against time. increasing hostility  T h i s w o u l d be some m e a s u r e o f t h e  e v i d e n t i n the notes.  An e x a m p l e o f t h e  t o n e o f an e a r l y n o t e w o u l d be We r e g r e t t o s a y t h a t C h i n e s e t r o o p s came s o u t h o f t h e T u h j u n L a and were c a m p i n g a t B a r a H o t i a l o n g s i d e our t r o o p s . We w o u l d l i k e t o r e p e a t t h a t we a r e most a n x i o u s t o a v o i d a n y p o s s i b l e i n c i d e n t and we, t h e r e f o r e , s u g g e s t t h a t s t r i c t i n s t r u c t i o n s s h o u l d be i s s u e d t h a t no p e r s o n n e l from t h e T i b e t r e g i o n o f China should c r o s s i n t o I n d i a w i t h o u t due p e r m i s s i o n f r o m u s . 8 5 /  84/  T h e r e i s a s e r i o u s gap i n t h e s e d a t a , h o w e v e r , a s v o l . 2 o f the Government o f I n d i a White P a p e r s c o n t a i n i n g t h e exchanges f r o m Sept.. 1959 t o Nov. 1959 i s n o t a v a i l a b l e . M a j o r l e t t e r s e x c h a n g e d w e r e a v a i l a b l e i n o t h e r s o u r c e s s u c h a s Ambekar and t h e D o c u m e n t s p u b l i s h e d i n P e k i n g b u t t h e r e was no o t h e r s o u r c e f o r t h e n o t e s c o n t a i n i n g p r o t e s t s and a l l e g a t i o n s .  85/  November  5/55.  - 52  and  of a l a t e r  -  note  The G o v e r n m e n t o f I n d i a s t r o n g l y p r o t e s t a g a i n s t t h e s e r e p e a t e d v i o l a t i o n s o f I n d i a n t e r r i t o r y by C h i n e s e armed f o r c e s . U n t i l now G o v e r n m e n t h a v e observed d i s c r e e t r e t i c e n c e about these i n c i d e n t s a l t h o u g h t h e r e i s a g o o d d e a l o f c o n c e r n among t h e I n d i a n p u b l i c , and I n P a r l i a m e n t , a b o u t t h e s e c u r i t y a r r a n g e m e n t s on I n d i a ' s n o r t h e r n f r o n t i e r . The  Indian  i n p u t o u t p u t s t a t e s w i l l be  notes a c t u a l l y concerned w i t h t e r r i t o r i a l r e d u c t i o n o f t e n s i o n , and  s e v e r a l s t a t e s i n many t i m e p e r i o d s .  t h a t i s not coded  86/  question  (0) and  where t h e  l i n k e d to a previous  (0) •( + );.  A u g u s t 28/59.  and  so t h e r e  are  Where a s p e c i f i c i n p u t  n o t a p p r o v e d o r r e j e c t e d by  (+)  where  Many o f t h e n o t e s e x c h a n g e d  c o n t a i n r e f e r e n c e s t o more t h a n one  been coded  the  c l a i m s , measure f o r  a r r a n g e m e n t s f o r m e e t i n g s and  p o s s i b l e the meetings t h e m s e l v e s .  b e e n made and  d e s c r i b e d by  the  I n d i a n s i d e i t has  I n d i a n s i d e has Chinese  has  proposal  made a i t has  proposal been  - 53 -  Table V I  INPUT-OUTPUT STATES FOR  Input  (+) (+). (-) <+). (0) (-) (+) (+). (0) (0) (+) (+) (+) (+) (+) (-) 0-)(+). (-) (+). (+). (+) (0) (0) (-) (+) <<-)  Output  INDIA  Time  9 (-) (-) (+) (-) •(<-) •(*-) (+) (+). (+) (0) (+) (0) (+) (0) (-) (-) (-) (-) (0) (+). (+) (0) (0) (0)  10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 -  20  . 21  22 23 24  Input  (+) (-) (+). (0), (-) (-) (0) (-) (-) (0) (-) (+) (+) •(+.) (0) (^) (+) (+) (+) •(+•)• (+) (+•). (+•) (+). (+•) •(+•) •(+)••  Output  (+) •(-) (+) (-) (-) (-) (-) (+)  »  (-) (-) (-) (0) (-) •(+) (+) (-) (-) •( -) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (-) (-) J  The d i s t r i b u t i o n of. t h e I n d i a n s t a t e s a r e a s  follows  Table V I I  DISTRIBUTION OF INDIAN INPUT-OUTPUT STATES  Type  M.  Number o f T i m e s A p p e a r i n g (-) (+)  »  10 2  (+).-(-)  14  (+) (+) (0) •( + ) (0) (-) •M ( 0 ) (+). ( 0 )  5 6 3 3 11  The P r o c e s s e s :  In l o o k i n g  a t t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s and e s t i m a t i n g  t h e r e l a t i v e p o t e n c y o f t h e p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e s two a p p r o a c h e s used:  (a)  looking  were  a t the general p i c t u r e of the process gleaned  f r o m d e s c r i p t i v e s t u d i e s , n e w s p a p e r a c c o u n t s , and a c c o u n t s o f p a r t i cipants  s u c h a s Menon a n d t h r o u g h a p r o c e s s o f r e c r e a t i n g  e v e n t s , r e a s o n i n g w h i c h v a r i a b l e s m i g h t be i m p i n g i n g m o s t on t h e p r o c e s s .  strongly  T h i s a p p r o a c h was u s e d e s p e c i a l l y where t h e r e was  no c h a n g e i n a p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e ;  (b)  where a change o c c u r r e d i n  a p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e an e x p e c t e d c h a n g e i n o u t c o m e c o u l d be sized.  the  hypothe-  T h i s a p p r o a c h was c a r r i e d o u t m o s t f u l l y i n t h e c a s e o f t h e  s y s t e m i c v a r i a b l e and t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t i n the I n d i a n change i n  -55  the  -  s o c i e t a l v a r i a b l e i n 1959 and the. Burmese c h a n g e i n t h e i d i o -  s y n c r a t i c v a r i a b l e i n 1958. The  first  part o f the Sino-Indian  1 9 5 4 - M a r c h 1959) h a s b e e n c l a s s i f i e d has  been h y p o t h e s i z e d  the  part  Information  It  idiosyncratic  t h a n s o c i e t a l o n e s and t h a t a s  i s s u e changed t o one o f s t a t u s s o c i e t a l p r e s s u r e s  more i m p o r t a n t .  (from  as a t e r r i t o r i a l d i s p u t e .  that during the f i r s t  v a r i a b l e s w o u l d be more i m p o r t a n t  border dispute  concerning  w o u l d become  t h e b o r d e r d i s p u t e was n o t  made a v a i l a b l e t o t h e p u b l i c u n t i l N e h r u i n t r o d u c e d t h e m a t t e r i n Parliament  on A u g u s t 2 8 , 1959 a n d t h e p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h e G o v e r n m e n t  of I n d i a ' s f i r s t no  press  W h i t e P a p e r on t h e s u b j e c t .  or p u b l i c opinion impinging  cular issue u n t i l  t h i s time.  T h e r e was, t h e r e f o r e ,  on t h e p r o c e s s  i n the p a r t i -  P r e s s and p u b l i c o p i n i o n  first  became m a r k e d l y h o s t i l e t o w a r d t h e C h i n e s e G o v e r n m e n t i n M a r c h o f 1959  during the Tibetan r e b e l l i o n .  The p r o c e s s  during the f i r s t  p e r i o d w o u l d , t h e r e f o r e , be e x p e c t e d t o h a v e b e e n d o m i n a t e d b y Nehru's n o n - v i o l e n t b u t s t i l l  rigid  approach.  His idiosyncratic  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f r i g i d n e s s w o u l d be e x p e c t e d t o become more p r o m i n e n t w i t h t h e change o f i s s u e a r e a . credence t o t h i s hypothesis  2 lends  some  w i t h t h e s h a r p i n c r e a s e i n number o f  n o t e s l o d g i n g p r o t e s t s i n 195 9. output state occurred  Figure  In Table VI only the f i r s t  input  b e f o r e 1959.  M o s t o f N e h r u ' s s t a t e m e n t s on t h e i s s u e r e f l e c t h i s Gandhian, nonaligned, to  n o n - v i o l e n t background.  The f o l l o w i n g seems  h a v e b e e n t y p i c a l o f e x c h a n g e s i n t h e L o k Sabha a n d R a j y a  Sabha.  - 56  Mr. P.P.  -  Singh Do n o t t h e G o v e r n m e n t c o n t e m p l a t e o u s t i n g t h e C h i n e s e f r o m t h i s I n d i a n t e r r i t o r y by f o r c e ?  The  Prime M i n i s t e r No, S i r , The G o v e r n m e n t w i l l n o t c o n s i d e r t h i s c o u r s e , b e c a u s e t h a t i s n o t t h e way t h e G o v e r n m e n t would l i k e t o f u n c t i o n i n such m a t t e r s . In matters l i k e t h i s d e c i s i o n s c a n o n l y be made by c o n f e r e n c e s , by a g r e e m e n t , C o u n t r i e s do n o t , and s h o u l d n o t , go t o war w i t h o u t p r o c e e d i n g i n o t h e r ways.8 7/  He  seems a l s o t o h a v e p r o j e c t e d t h i s s e t o f v a l u e s t o I n d i a n  society  We i n I n d i a a r e by o u r b a c k g r o u n d and t e m p e r a m e n t p e a c e f u l by n a t u r e . We e a r n e s t l y b e l i e v e i n t h e s e t t l e m e n t o f d i f f e r e n c e s by p e a c e f u l d i s c u s s i o n and n e g o t i a t i o n s . 88/ Nehru's c o n c e p t i o n o f the change i n i s s u e a r e a went a l o n g w i t h a d i f f e r e n t c o n c e p t i o n of the r o l e of p u b l i c o p i n i o n i n the dispute.  S p e a k i n g o f t h e e a r l i e r p e r i o d he s a i d We t h o u g h t a t t h e t i m e t h a t i t might, be e a s i e r f o r us t o d e a l w i t h t h e C h i n e s e Government w i t h o u t t o o much p u b l i c i t y . 8 9/  and o f t h e l a t e r p e r i o d .our f a i l u r e t o g i v e p u b l i c i t y , t o t h i s h a s r e s u l t e d i n sharp but l e g i t m a t e c r i t i c i s m of t h e G o v e r n m e n t b o t h i n P a r l i a m e n t and i n t h e p r e s s i n our c o u n t r y . 9 0 /  87/  Exchange i n R a j y a  Sabha, A u g u s t 31/59.  88/  Speech, August  89/  Address to the Rajya  90/  Note t o the Chinese  6/62. Sabha, A u g u s t 31/1959. Premier dated  September  26/59.  - 57  -  T h a t p o l i c y , r e m a i n e d up peaceful  methods, i s p r o b a b l y  an  until  there  of p u b l i c o p i n i o n .  severe c r i t i c i s m  visit 1962 in  t o D e l h i and  o f V.K.  the  acceptance  i n d i c a t i o n of the  Nehru's p e r s o n a l i t y but The  1962  i s evidence of the  of  predominance  of  increasing force  o f Chou's A p r i l  1960  K r i s h n a Menon's t a l k s i n Geneva i n  w i t h M a r s h a l l Chen Y i p r o b a b l y t h e d i r e c t i o n o f n e g o t i a t i o n s and  d i d much t o r e t a r d  progress  f o r c e d Nehru t o the  rather 91/  weak d e f e n c e t h a t t h e s e w e r e m e r e l y " t a l k s " -and Evidence of the  push a g a i n s t n e g o t i a t i o n s by  Nehru's v i e w s i s again 14,  not  negotiations.  t h e p u b l i c and  of  e v i d e n c e d i n s t a t e m e n t s as l a t e as August  1962. A g r e a t d e a l h a s b e e n s a i d : we must n o t t a l k t o the Chinese u n l e s s t h e y v a c a t e . I refuse to accept t h i s statement.^2/ The  pressures  most c o n c r e t e  example o f the r e s u l t of  i s f o u n d i n t h e r e s i g n a t i o n o f Menon i n 1962.  s h a r e d Nehru's v i e w s on n o n a l i g n m e n t , n o n v i o l e n c e t o w a r d C h i n a o r h e l d t h e m i n more e x t r e m e f o r m with press  societal  opinion. 94/ ' and  and  ' he was  at  variance  T h e r e were o b j e c t i o n s t o h i s r o l e i n t h e  talks  again.to  h i s r o l e i n 1962  91/  L a l l , A r t h u r , Modern I n t e r n a t i o n a l N e g o t i a t i o n s , C o l u m b i a U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 6 ) , p . 45.  92/  A d d r e s s t o the Lok  93/  Brecher,  94/  R e s e a r c h B a c k g r o u n d e r , p.  95/  Lall,  Sabha.  Menon, p a s s i m . 69.  a t Geneva.  he  friendship  93 /  1960  loc. c i t .  Since  April  95/ '  After  (New  York:  - 58  -  the  armed c l a s h e s o f O c t o b e r 1962  for  Menon's r e s i g n a t i o n .  t h e r e was g r e a t p u b l i c  outcry  A t f i r s t Nehru r e s i s t e d the p r e s s u r e  t h e n o n O c t o b e r 3 1 , he t o o k o v e r t h e p o r t f o l i o o f D e f e n c e a p p o i n t e d Menon M i n i s t e r o f D e f e n c e  and  Production.  B u t t h e c l a m o u r d i d n o t d i e down.  A D e l h i news- -  p a p e r d e c l a r e d t h a t , h a v i n g t a s t e d b l o o d , t h e p e o p l e s h o u l d go 96/ for  the k i l l  and Menon s u b s e q u e n t l y r e s i g n e d f r o m t h e  latter  post. However, n o t a l l o f N e h r u ' s  idiosyncratic  character-  i s t i c s w o u l d p o i n t t o w a r d a more c o n c i l i a t o r y a p p r o a c h i n o p p o s i - tion to societal pressures.  W i t h t h e c h a n g e o f i s s u e a r e a t o one  i n w h i c h he f e l t t h a t s u c h v a l u e s a s h o n o u r ,  i n t e g r i t y , and  c o n d u c t w e r e a t s t a k e he w o u l d be e x p e c t e d t o t a k e o n a l e s s ciliatory  Lall of  right con-  attitude We b e l i e v e f i r m l y t h a t p e a c e i s b e t t e r t h a n w a r . N e v e r t h e l e s s , i f the C o u n t r y ' s freedom or i t s i n t e g r i t y o r i t s h o n o u r i s a t t a c k e d , we h a v e t o d e f e n d i t w i t h war i f n e c e s s a r y . 9 7 /  f e e l s t h a t such a t t i t u d e s were r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the  failure  negotiations Prime M i n i s t e r Nehru's f e e l i n g s d e f l e c t e d I n d i a f r o m t h e c o u r s e o f n e g o t i a t i o n s . ; . .There was a m p l e r e a s o n f o r n e g o t i a t i o n and p l e n t y o f d e s i r e on b o t h s i d e s f o r i t . However i n t h i s p e r i o d t h e C h i n e s e p r e s s and g o v e r n m e n t o f f i c i a l s opened a c a m p a i g n o f r u d e i n v e c t i v e d i r e c t e d  96/  G e o r g e , T . J . S . , K r i s h n a Menon, (London: 1964) , p. 247.  97/  Statement t o t h e Lok Sabha, August  6,  Jonathan Cape,  1962.  - 59 -  p e r s o n a l l y a g a i n s t J a w a h a r l a l N e h r u . . . I t was c l e a r t h a t h i s f e e l i n g s h a d b e e n d e e p l y wounded by t h e C h i n e s e v e r b a l b a r b s . He had come c o n sequently to d i s l i k e the idea of dealing with them, a n d t h i s was u n d o u b t e d l y one o f t h e r e a s o n s why s e v e r a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r n e g o t i a t i o n s w e r e n e g l e c t e d (he t h e n c i t e s a n i n c i d e n t w h e r e N e h r u b r o u g h t up t h e s u b j e c t o f C h i n e s e v e r b a l a t t a c k s a l t h o u g h i t was i r r e l e v a n t ) ... .My own s u g g e s t i o n s (of t a l k s w i t h C h i n e s e o f f i c i a l s i n 1961 a t Geneva) w e r e met w i t h a f r o z e n s i l e n c e o n t h e p a r t o f t h e Prime M i n i s t e r . 9 8 / Since,  i n the second stage,  b o t h s o c i e t a l and i d i o s y n c r a t i c  v a r i a b l e s w o u l d seem t o be o r i e n t e d t o w a r d p o l i c y o u t c o m e s n o t favouring  negotiations  influence.  i ti s difficult  t o gauge t h e i r  relative  However, s i n c e p o l i c y d i d n o t become one o f p h y s i c a l  v i o l e n c e , i t w o u l d seem t h a t i d i o s y n c r a t i c v a r i a b l e s w e r e predominant.  On t h e b a s i s o f t h e a n e c d o t a l  e v i d e n c e and t h e  e v i d e n c e c o n c e r n i n g t h e exchanges o f n o t e s i n F i g u r e s there  a r e some g r o u n d s f o r t h e c o n c l u s i o n  important i n the status  1 and 2  that i d i o s y n c r a t i c  v a r i a b l e s a r e most i m p o r t a n t i n b o t h t e r r i t o r i a l i n the Indian case but t h a t  and s t a t u s  subservient  i s s u e than i n the t e r r i t o r i a l  issue.  relevant to this  i n f l u e n c e b o t h i n t e r n a l a n d e x t e r n a l was one o f t h e most  China's important  A l l p o l i c y seems o r i e n t e d t o w a r d t h e a v o i d -  ance, o f p o s s i b l e C h i n e s e n e g a t i v e  98/  In the  s i t u a t i o n w o u l d be  t o t h e m a i n t e n a n c e o f Burmese s o v e r e i g n t y .  threats to this value.  issues  s o c i e t a l v a r i a b l e s become much more  I d i o s y n c r a t i c and S o c i e t a l V a r i a b l e s i n Burma. c a s e o f U Nu a n y v a l u e s  still  L a 1 1 , o p . c i t . , p. 148.  actions.  In a n t i c i p a t i o n of  - 60 -  Chinese i n f l i t r a t i o n for  a negotiated  a n d a i d t o t h e B.C.P., U Nu i n 1949 c a l l e d  settlement  of t h e e n t i r e boundary, i n e f f e c t ,  what I n d i a had d e n i e d t h r o u g h o u t t h e S i n o - I n d i a n other  values  rebellion,  such as questions  No  o f hegemony i n A s i a , t h e T i b e t a n  i s s u e s o f h o n o u r a n d r i g h t c o n d u c t seem t o h a v e b e e n  brought -into the d i s p u t e place  dispute.  i n U Nu's v a l u e The  a s w o u l d be e x p e c t e d f r o m t h e i r  secondary  system.  Burmese p r o c e s s p r o d u c e d a much more f l e x i b l e  of outcomes than d i d t h e I n d i a n processes.  series  I t resulted i n f i r s t  the  admitting  o f t h e need f o r an o v e r a l l s e t t l e m e n t  and t h e n i n  the  c h a n g i n g o f t h e o r i g i n a l demand f o r t h e C h i n e s e t o w i t h d r a w  t o t h e " l e g a l b o u n d a r y " t h e 1941 L i n e , t o a r e q u e s t f o r w i t h d r a w a l t o t h e 19 41 L i n e , a s a n i n t e r i m m e a s u r e u n t i l was r e a c h e d .  an o v e r a l l  settlement  A s s t a t e d i n t h e s e c t i o n on s o c i e t a l v a r i a b l e s t h e  p r e s s a d v o c a t e d a l e s s c o n c i l i a t o r y p o l i c y b u t d i d n o t seem a s r e f l e c t i v e o f a more g e n e r a l i z e d in  India.  public opinion  as d i d the press  N o r was p u b l i c o p i n i o n a s p r o n e t o b r i n g i n i s s u e s o f  s t a t u s a s i t had b e e n i n I n d i a . s o c i e t a l pressure  U Nu d i d n o t e x p e r i e n c e a s much  mitigating against  the c o n c i l i a t o r y policy  t h a t h i s i d i o s y n c r a t i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s seem t o h a v e l e d t o . hostile public opinion  t h e r e was, h o w e v e r , seems n o t t o h a v e had  the opening i n t o t h e p r o c e s s t h a t i t d i d i n I n d i a . deliberate d e c i s i o n to inform been i n I n d i a i n 1959.  What  T h e r e was no  t h e p u b l i c i n 1956 a s t h e r e h a d  P u b l i c a w a r e n e s s was t h e r e s u l t o f t h e  - 61 -  r e p o r t i n g i n The N a t i o n the  and p o l i c y m a k e r s seemed n o t t o  legitimacy of public c r i t i c i s m  i n the s i t u a t i o n .  recognize  T h e r e were  s e v e r a l r e p o r t s o f a t t e m p t s by t h e government t o r e t u r n t o t h e 99 / e a r l i e r p o l i c y of secrecy. the  press  '  U Nu o n A p r i l  2 8 , 1960 a p p e a l e d t o  "to r e f r a i n from p u b l i s h i n g anything  jeopardize the negotiations f o r a peaceful That the c o n c i l i a t o r y ,  ( f u r t h e r ) t h a t might  settlement.'"  f l e x i b l e a p p r o a c h o f t h e Burmese  g o v e r n m e n t may n o t h a v e b e e n due e n t i r e l y t o t h e p e r s o n a l i t y o f U Nu i s i n d i c a t e d b y t h e J u n e 1959 c o n c e s s i o n F r o m J a n u a r y 1958 t h e r e had b e e n a s t a l e m a t e and  o f t h e Panghang A r e a . i n the n e g o t i a t i o n s  a l e s s c o n c i l i a t o r y p o l i c y on t h e p a r t o f the.Burmese over  t h i s area.  Soon a f t e r t h e c o m i n g o f t h e C a r e t a k e r  R e g i m e , Ne that  Win  made a n o f f e r o f 56 s q u a r e m i l e s  i n t h e Panghang a r e a  lead  t o t h e 1960 B o u n d a r y A g r e e m e n t .  T h e r e had been a change i n b o t h  i d i o s y n c r a t i c v a r i a b l e s and i n t h e degree o f openness i n t h e p o l i t y , w i t h the p o l i c y remaining e v e n more s o , s u g g e s t i n g  as c o n c i l i a t o r y as before that v a r i a b l e s other  or perhaps  than i d i o s y n c r a t i c  o n e s w o u l d be r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e g e n e r a l l y c o n c i l i a t o r y p o l i c y . When t h e 1960 B o u n d a r y A g r e e m e n t was s i g n e d U Nu h a d warm p r a i s e for  i t suggesting  istic 99/  t h a t i t had n o t been an I d i o s y n c r a t i c c h a r a c t e r -  t h a t had c a u s e d t h e 1958 T r a g e r , op_. c i t . ,  p. 2 4 1 ; a n d The New Y o r k T i m e s i n d e x ,  100/ T r a g e r , l o o . c i t . 101/  T a n g , op_. c i t . ,  stalemate.  p. 594.  1957.  - 62  -  S o c i e t a l p r e s s u r e s d i d n o t seem t o be a s i m p o r t a n t i n Burma a s i n I n d i a e v e n when t h e p o l i t y c o u l d be c l a s s i f i e d a s a l t h o u g h s o c i e t a l p r e s s u r e s may slight  open,  have been r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the  show o f i n t r a n s i g e n c e o v e r t h e Panghang a r e a .  With  the  c o m i n g o f t h e C a r e t a k e r G o v e r n m e n t t h e s e p r e s s u r e s seem t o h a v e become e v e n l e s s i n f l u e n t i a l .  C r i t i c i s m o f government a c t i o n s  was  p u b l i c knowledge of the  s e v e r e l y r e s t r i c t e d a s was  of the boundary n e g o t i a t i o n s .  T h e r e seems a l s o a t t h i s t i m e  h a v e b e e n an i n c r e a s e i n i m p o r t a n c e 1958  t h e r e were s t i l l  progress  of governmental  to  factors.  important d i f f e r e n c e s c o n c e r n i n g the  In  areas  o f t e r r i t o r i e s t o be e x c h a n g e d y e t n e g o t i a t i o n s w e r e h a n d l e d officials.  T h e r e had  b e e n no m e e t i n g  of o f f i c i a l s before  by  this  time. Governmenta1 V a r i a b l e s . t o have ranked  Governmental f a c t o r s would  lowest i n both nations.  d i s p u t e the I n d i a n bureaucracy  seem  During the Sino-Indian  seems t o h a v e p l a y e d a d m i r a b l y the.  r o l e o f i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r e r and  dispenser  The I n d i a n s . . . h a v e u s e d t h e i r h i s t o r y i n a way w h i c h W e s t e r n s c h o l a r s c a n u n d e r s t a n d and r e l i s h ; b u t t h e y h a v e d o n e so a t g r e a t l e n g t h . To; 245 items of evidence mainly of h i s t o r i c a l nature w h i c h t h e C h i n e s e p r o d u c e d i n 1960-61 t h e I n d i a n s r e p l i e d w i t h no l e s s t h a n 63 0 i t e m s . 1 0 2 / The  bureaucracy  seems t o h a v e had no r o l e i n t h e a c t u a l p r e s e n t a t i o n  of a l t e r n a t i v e s or i n the d e c i s i o n making.  I l l u s t r a t i v e of  this  1 0 2 / Lamb, A l a s t a i r , The C h i n a - I n d i a B o r d e r ; The O r i g i n s o f t h e D i s p u t e d B o u n d a r i e s , (London; Oxford U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1964), p. 12.  - 63  -  p a s s i v e r o l e i s L a l l ' s comment Even i f the t a l k s might Mr. N e h r u ' s the s u b j e c t  Indian Foreign O f f i c e believed that be i n i t i a t e d a t Geneva ( 1 9 6 1 ) , k n o w i n g f e e l i n g s i t w o u l d n o t have b r o a c h e d t o him.103/  I n Burma t h e b u r e a u c r a c y was information gatherer. s t a f f and  d u r i n g n e g o t i a t i o n s the  s t a t e o f t h e Burmese a r c h i v e s ,  Burmese d e l e g a t i o n had  on C h i n e s e d o c u m e n t a t i o n . '1^4/  very  T h e r e i s much e v i d e n c e t h a t U  I t i s probable  h i m s e l f the  not  of f o r e i g n p o l i c y  pages of a  page a r t i c l e t o p r a i s e o f t h e p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e Burmese s e r v i c e i n the p u r e l y t e c h n i c a l task of demarcating the a l s o be  nine civil  boundary,  evidence of i t si n e f f e c t i v e n e s s .  I t was higher  a  expert.  I n d i r e c t l y W h i t t a m ' s d e v o t i o n o f two  may  Nu's  t h a t the r e l a t i o n s h i p  w o u l d h a v e b e e n e v e n more s t r a i n e d i n t h e f i e l d considered  to. b a s e i t s c l a i m s  b u r e a u c r a c y i n e c o n o m i c a f f a i r s was  s a t i s f a c t o r y on;e.'^^  w h e r e U Nu  of  I t i s r e p o r t e d t h a t , because of l a c k o f  because of the d i s o r g a n i z e d  r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h the  not a b l e t o p l a y the r o l e  n o t e d e a r l i e r , h o w e v e r , t h a t t h e r e was  a much  l e v e l of a s s i g n m e n t of e l i t e c a d r e o f f i c e r s t o the  f o r e i g n s e r v i c e than t o the  p.  I n d i a n f o r e i g n s e r v i c e and  i t  Burmese was  103/  L a l l , op_. c i t . ,  148.  104/  J o h n s t o n e , op_. c i t . ,  105/  Hag e n , E v e r e t t , E., On The; T h e o r y o f S o c i a l C h a n g e , (Homewood, Illinois: The D o r s e y P r e s s , I n c . , 1 9 6 2 ) , pp. 4 5 2 - 4 5 8 , and W a l i n s k y , E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t o f Burma and "The R i s e and F a l l o f U Nu", p a s s i m .  p.  329.  - 64  suggested  t h a t p e r h a p s t h i s w o u l d l e a d t o more b u r e a u c r a t i c  influence i n decision-making some s c a n t e v i d e n c e  i n Burma t h a n  of t h i s .  the p r o c e s s . " ^ /  mention of  senior c i v i l  g a t h e r e r p l a y e d , by t h e c i v i l "meetings of o f f i c i a l s "  of conferences  make  to d i s c u s s minor p o i n t s .  least three senior c i v i l  There can  d i f f e r e n c e s between exchanged There  seems t h e n t o h a v e b e e n a d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e t y p e s o f r o l e  bureaucracy  case  meeting  s e r v a n t s i n 195 9.  I n I n d i a t h e r e was  also  i n c o n t r a s t to  t h e amount o f t e r r i t o r y t o be  n e g o t i a t i o n s w e r e t a k e n o v e r by c i v i l  developed  other  delegate  I n t h e Burmese  s e r v a n t s . A g a i n  t h e I n d i a n s i t u a t i o n , when t h e r e w e r e s t i l l  by t h e b u r e a u c r a t s .  no  s e r v a n t seems t o h a v e b e e n d u r i n g  among t h e c h i e f n e g o t i a t o r s a t t h e 1956  Burma and C h i n a o v e r  role  only r o l e besides that of information  a u t h o r i t y on,any-but t h e most m i n o r p o i n t s .  at  hand  a passive  a m a r k e d r e l u c t a n c e on t h e p a r t o f N e h r u t o  Johnstone l i s t s  There i s  s e r v a n t s b u t o n l y o f N e h r u , Menon and  cabinet m i n i s t e r s . T h e  be n o t e d  Indian bureaucracy  Newspaper a c c o u n t s  6  i n India.  First,, there i s L a l l ' s f i r s t  r e p o r t which a t t r i b u t e s t o the in  -  played  w i t h t h e much more  an e m p h a s i s o n d a t a - g a t h e r i n g .  I n Burma l a c k  o f r e s o u r c e s made t h i s i m p o s s i b l e b u t t h e b u r e a u c r a t s , p o s s i b l y because o f a monopoly of t a l e n t , role  i n the actual n e g o t i a t i o n s .  106/  Lall,  107/  Re s e a r c h B a c k g r o u n d e r ,  108/  Johnstone,  seem t o h a v e p l a y e d a much  loc. c i t .  op.  c i t . , p.  passim. 239.  larger  - 65  Systemic V a r i a b l e s . systemic v a r i a b l e w i l l  -  One  measure o f t h e e f f e c t o f  be t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h t h e p o l i c y  this  makers  t a k e i n t o account t h e s e s y s t e m i c a c t i o n s or the a n t i c i p a t i o n of the  a c t i o n s , a t the expense  decisions.  The  other w i l l  o f i n t e r n a l p r e s s u r e s when m a k i n g be t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h t h e r e i s f o u n d  a p a t t e r n i n the i n p u t - o u t p u t s e t s t h a t would patterned response  to the systemic a c t i o n s .  t h a t the e f f e c t s of systemic v a r i a b l e s w i l l Burma t h a n i n I n d i a . i t must f i r s t  indicate a definite I t i s hypothesized  be more m a r k e d i n  In l o o k i n g a t the r o l e of systemic v a r i a b l e s  be n o t e d t h a t Burma was  s u b j e c t t o a much w i d e r  r a n g e o f p o s s i b l e C h i n e s e a c t i o n s t h a n was  India.  T h e r e was  an  i m p o r t a n t C h i n e s e c o m m u n i t y i n Burma w i t h t i e s t o t h e h o m e l a n d , t h e r e was  a c t u a l and a n t i c i p a t e d C h i n e s e a i d t o  insurrectionist  b o r d e r g r o u p s s u c h a s t h e K a r e n s and t o t h e B.C.P. a n d t h e r e were C h i n e s e  i n c u r s i o n s i n t o Burmese t e r r i t o r y i n p u r s u i t  of  Kuomintang t r o o p s , b e s i d e s the i n c u r s i o n s d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d the  boundary  related  dispute.  to the boundary  I n d i a was  subject only to actions  While i n India,  s u c h a s r e c o g n i t i i o n o f C h i n a , s p o n s o r s h i p o f C h i n e s e U.N. s h i p , and t h e F i v e P r i n c i p l e s h a v e b e e n j u s t i f i e d c o n d u c t , Burmese p o l i c y h a s b e e n j u s t i f i e d  York  the  S y s t e m i c f a c t o r s h a v e b e e n most .  i m p o r t a n t i n Burma's g e n e r a l C h i n a p o l i c y .  New  directly  d i s p u t e except i n the m a r g i n a l case of  Naga t r i b e s m e n i n N .E .F .A. ^ 9 /  1 0 9 / The  to  T i m e s I n d e x , 1961  and  Member-  i n terms of  i n terms of  1962.  policies  right  anticipation  - 66 -  of  hostile actions.  On December  3  f  1949 i n d i s c u s s i n g r e c o g n i -  t i o n o f C h i n a , F o r e i g n M i n i s t e r E. Maung s a i d . We s h a l l h a v e t o r e c o g n i z e t h e new g o v e r n m e n t o f C h i n a v e r y soon. N o t h i n g has been d e c i d e d y e t , but i t i s a q u e s t i o n of r e c o g n i z i n g f a c t s . . . t h e s e (border) r a i d s a r e l i k e l y t o change i n meaning...110/ On t h e same q u e s t i o n U Nu s p e c i f i c a l l y m e n t i o n s h i s disregard f o r internal  pressures  I n r e g a r d t o o u r f o r e i g n p o l i c y a l s o , we a r e c o n v i n c e d t h a t t h e c o u r s e we h a v e a d o p t e d i s the best i n the circumstances of our country and we a r e t h e r e f o r e p u r s u i n g i t s t e a d f a s t l y no m a t t e r how s t r o n g l y i t i s c r i t i c i z e d . 1 1 1 / D u r i n g the a c t u a l border d i s p u t e , as s t a t e d above, s o c i e t a l p r e s s u r e s seem t o h a v e b e e n no g r e a t f o r c e and t h e c o n c i l i a t o r y p o l i c y may  n o t h a v e b e e n due s o l e l y t o i d i o s y n c r a t i c  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a s U Nu and Ne Win seem t o h a v e f o l l o w e d t h e same general course.  Tang's a c c o u n t o f one p a r t o f t h e p r o s e s s  f o r c e s t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t p o l i c y was g u i d e d  by s y s t e m i c  rein-  factors  A s s u m m a r i z e d i n C h o u ' s J u l y 57 l e t t e r and i t s a c c o m p a n y i n g maps, P e k i n g r e p r e s e n t e d a d d i t i o n a l a r g u m e n t s i n c l a i m t o 18 6 s q u a r e m i l e s i n Hpimaw- • Gawlum-Kangfang a r e a i n s t e a d o f t h e 56 s q u a r e m i l e s o f f e r e d by Rangoon. S i m i l a r l y , the t e r r i t o r y t o be e x c h a n g e d f o r t h e Namwan T r a c t was extended t o i n c l u d e 8 6 square m i l e s w i t h i n the 1941 L i n e . W h i l e t h e Burmese G o v e r n m e n t o f f i c i a l l y d i s a l l o w e d these c l a i m s , i n October 1957, t h e C a b i n e t ' s F o r e i g n A f f a i r s Sub-Committee decided t h a t i n the event of Peking's r e j e c t i o n o f t h e p r e v i o u s l y s u b m i t t e d Burmese p r o p o s a l s , 110/ J o h n s t o n e , 111/  o p . c i t . , p. 5 6 .  I b i d . , p. 57.  67 -  new c o n d i t i o n s s h o u l d be a c c e p t e d . a s t h e basis for settlement.112/ In t h e input-output  s t a t e s presented  o n p a g e s 48 t o 53 t h e i n p u t  p a r t o f t h e statements i n d i c a t e the systemic v a r i a b l e . One systemic  way o f o b t a i n i n g an i d e a o f t h e e f f e c t o f t h e s e  v a r i a b l e s w o u l d be t o s e e i f t h e r e e x i s t s a n y r e l a t i o n -  s h i p between t h e p a t t e r n s o f i n p u t s and o u t p u t s .  The n u l l  hypo-  t h e s i s i s t h a t t h e type o f input i s n o t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e type of output.  E x t r a c t i n g the input-output  positive o r negative and  i n p u t s and o u t p u t s  states that contain and g r o u p i n g  non-congruent s t a t e s one o b t a i n s a m a t r i x  only  congruent  f o r each o f t h e  countries as follows Table V I I I THE  RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN INPUTS AND OUTPUTS I N INDIA AND BURMA BURMA  Congruent States  Non-Congruent States  Congruent States  6  15  17 x p  2  INDIA Non-Congruent States 17  =  5.26  x  =  .05  p  2  =  .12  =  N.S.  T h i s w o u l d seem t o i n d i c a t e t h a t s y s t e m i c very  important  112/  T a n g , op_. c i t . ,  factors are  i n t h e Burmese c a s e a n d n o t so i n t h e I n d i a n  p . 5 96  case.  - 68 • Flexib11ity; t o be  The  coded i n terms of  d e f i n e d as  the  ability  -  s e r i e s of  p o l i c y outcomes were  flexibility-rigidity.  also  Flexibility  t o change from a p o s i t i v e t o a  is  negative  113 / outcome o r from a n e g a t i v e t o a p o s i t i v e outcome. at the  o v e r a l l d i s t r i b u t i o n of outcomes a r i g i d  d e f i n e d as  a s e r i e s where the  p r o b a b i l i t y that  f r o m a p o p u l a t i o n o f o u t c o m e s w i t h an t i v e and  negative units  p o s i t i v e and  was  '  In  looking  s e r i e s would the  s e r i e s came  e q u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of  l e s s t h a n .05.  f o u r t e e n n e g a t i v e outcomes.  Burma had The  had  t h i r t e e n p o s i t i v e r e s p o n s e s and  responses w i t h the buted p o p u l a t i o n of  p r o b a b i l i t y of  previous responses.  extracted  outcomes l i s t e d  are  equally  flexibility-rigidity  of r e i t e r a t i o n s of  statements that  linked  held positions To  get  statement or  are  113/  the  to p r e v i o u s l y  r e i t e r a t i o n s of  results reported  i n Table  A treatment of r i g i d i t y S c o t t , op. c i t .  and  i n A p p e n d i c e s A and  These s t a t e m e n t s were t h e n coded e i t h e r and  distri-  i s the  at t h i s ,  previously as  number  the  number  I have B  made s t a t e m e n t s  because they r e p r e s e n t p o s i t i v e or n e g a t i v e d e v i a t i o n s first  .345.  .032.  c o n c e s s i o n s from p r e v i o u s l y  from the  this  twenty-seven negative  p r o b a b i l i t y o f c o m i n g f r o m an  Another i n d i c a t i o n of of a c t u a l  posi-  eleven  s e r i e s coming from a p o p u l a t i o n w i t h e q u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n i s India  be  those either  from  the  made'statements.  a change or a r e i t e r a t i o n  IX.  i n a p o s i t i v e d i r e c t i o n i s found  in  Table IX  F L E X I B I L I T Y AND RIGID!  IN INDIA AND BURMA  BURMA Time  INDIA  Change o r R e i t e r a t i o n  4 10 11 13 16 17 18 20 21, 22 23  + C R R + C R R R R R R + C  Time  Change o r R e i t e r a t i o n  2 4 5e 6f 6g 7a 7b 7c 7e 7f 11 12 14 15 16 18 19a 20a 23b  R R + C R R R R R + C R R R R + C R R R R R  T h e r e i s a g a i n some i n d i c a t i o n o f more f l e x i b i l i t y o n t h e p a r t o f Burma a s t h e same number o f c h a n g e s , t h r e e , a p p e a r i n a s e r i e s o f e l e v e n outcomes as opposed t o I n d i a ' s n i n e t e e n outcomes. The d i f f e r e n c e i s much more s t r i k i n g outputs. issues.  A l l t h e Burmese c o n c e s s i o n s w e r e on m a j o r s u b s t a n t i v e T h a t i n t i m e p e r i o d 4, a c c e p t e d  interim l i n e only. up,  i f one l o o k s a t t h e s p e c i f i c  t h e 1941 L i n e a s an  I n t i m e p e r i o d 13 t h e Hpimaw a r e a was g i v e n  a n d i n t i m e p e r i o d 23 t h e P a n g h a n g a r e a was g i v e n u p .  A l lof  I n d i a ' s c o n c e s s i o n s were p r o c e d u r a l and o n l y t h e f i r s t two would  70 -  be c o n s i d e r e d o f a n y i m p o r t a n c e .  The o u t p u t f r o m t i m e  5e was t h e a c c e p t a n c e o f t a l k s and t h a t f r o m 7e was w i t h t h e same i s s u e . acceptance  period  concerned  The o u t p u t f r o m t i m e p e r i o d 15 was t h e  that there existed a legitmate difference of opinion  over a t r a n s l a t i o n o f a s e c t i o n o f the Report o f O f f i c i a l s . Burma's s e r i e s o f o u t p u t s w i l l and  t h e r e f o r e be c l a s s e d a s f l e x i b l e  I n d i a ' s as r i g i d . Consequences:  l i n k a g e of sub-system  The c o n s e q u e n c e s o f t h e s e o u t p u t s i s t h e  t o system.  I t i s through t h i s linkage  t h e w o r k o f f o r e i g n p o l i c y a n a l y s t s c a n be l i n k e d concepts as i n t e g r a t i o n , c o n f l i c t , t h i s paper  an a t t e m p t  that  t o such systemic  s t a b i l i t y and e q u i l i b r i u m .  In  i s made t o l i n k t h e f o r e g o i n g s t u d y o f  f o r e i g n p o l i c y m a k i n g w i t h some c o n c e p t s f r o m t h e w o r k o n n e g o t i a t i n g b e h a v i o u r and c o n f l i c t . The  consequences o f s u b - s y s t e m i c o u t p u t s have been  d e f i n e d as the success o r f a i l u r e o f n e g o t i a t i o n .  Negotiation  i s defined as: . . . t h e p r o c e s s o f c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f an i n t e r n a t i o n a l d i s p u t e o r s i t u a t i o n b y p e a c e f u l means, o t h e r t h a n j u d i c i a l or a r b i t r a l processes, with a view t o p r o m o t i n g o r r e a c h i n g among t h e p a r t i e s c o n c e r n e d o r i n t e r e s t e d some u n d e r s t a n d i n g , a m e l i o r a t i o n , adjustments, or settlement of the dispute or situation. ! / 1  4  Successful n e g o t i a t i o n s are those leading t o amelioration or settlement of the dispute while unsuccessful negotiations are those l e a d i n g t o a r e s o r t t o other than p e a c e f u l processes.  114/ L a l l ,  o p . e f t . , p. 5.  -  The  71  -  e x c h a n g e s b e t w e e n I n d i a and C h i n a a n d b e t w e e n  Burma a n d C h i n a c o u l d  t h e n be s e e n a s f o r m s o f n e g o t i a t i o n s ,  a l t h o u g h f o r many p a r t s o f t h e p r o c e s s e s s u c h a s C h o u ' s A p r i l 196 0 v i s i t  t o D e l h i o r t h e m e e t i n g o f Chou a n d Nu i n Kunming i n  1957  i s n o t much i n f o r m a t i o n .  there  The c o n s e q u e n c e s o f t h e  Burmese o u t p u t s w e r e t o b r i n g a b o u t t h e s u c c e s s f u l of n e g o t i a t i o n s of t h e Indian peaceful  i n t h e 196 0 B o u n d a r y T r e a t y .  conclusion  The c o n s e q u e n c e s  o u t p u t s were t o b r i n g a r e s o r t t o o t h e r  than  means i n O c t o b e r 1 9 6 2 . These outcomes t h a t l e d t o s u c h d i f f e r e n t c o n s e q u e n c e s  were p r e c i p i t a t e d by d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f p r o c e s s e s t h a t i n t u r n w e r e l i n k e d t o d i f f e r e n t n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s and d i f f e r e n t i s s u e areas. the of and  What seem t o h a v e b e e n t h e most s t r i k i n g d i f f e r e n c e s i n  s i t u a t i o n s concerned the g r e a t  d i s p a r i t y i n s i z e , t h e change  i s s u e a r e a i n I n d i a a n d t h e a b s e n c e o f t h i s c h a n g e i n Burma, the importance of systemic  f a c t o r s i n Burma a n d t h e i r  relative  impotency i n I n d i a . The attributes,  r a t i o n a l e f o r t h e s e l i n k a g e s between n a t i o n a l  issue areas,  cussed w i t h references"to  process,  and consequences w i l l  be d i s -  some o f t h e m i c r o s o c i o l o g i c a l e x p e r i -  ments o f M o r t o n D e u t s c h and t h e c o n c e p t o f r e s p o n s i v e n e s s a s  - 72 -  d e v e l o p e d b y K a r l W.  D e u t s c h and Dean G.  Pruitt,  p a r a l l e l concepts of "successful negotiations" communications",  and  " t h r e a t p o t e n t i a l " and  Disparity i n Size.  '  and  their  and " e f f e c t i v e  "fate control".  The n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s i z e h a s  p r e v i o u s l y been l i n k e d t o t h e c o n c e p t o f power.  The  possible  l i n k b e t w e e n power o r s i z e and t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s  for negotiations  f o u n d h e r e h a s an i n t e r e s t i n g p a r a l l e l .  experimental  I n an  s t u d y o f t h e e f f e c t o f " t h r e a t p o t e n t i a l s " on t h e b e h a v i o u r o f bargainers  a t t h e i n t e r p e r s o n a l l e v e l , M o r t o n D e u t s c h came t o  several conclusions could  t h a t are analogous t o the conclusions  be d r a w n f r o m t h i s d i s c u s s i o n o f b a r g a i n i n g  national level.  at the  He f o u n d t h a t i n t e r m s o f d e f i n e d  goals  l o s s e s both p a r t i e s d i d worst i n the case o f a b i l a t e r a l which would approximate t h e S i n o - I n d i a n unilateral the  other  threat the actor possessing a c t o r but the l a t t e r  case of b i l a t e r a l t h r e a t . success of n e g o t i a t i o n s  case.  that interand threat  In the case of  the t h r e a t d i d b e t t e r  s t i l l d i d b e t t e r t h a n he had  In t h e boundary  disputes  or the avoidance of v i o l e n c e  than i n the  i f the i s held  to  1 1 5 / M o r t o n D e u t s c h , " B a r g a i n i n g , T h r e a t and C o m m u n i c a t i o n : Some Experimental Studies" i n Kathleen A r c h i b a l d (ed.), S t r a t e g i c I n t e r a c t i o n and C o n f l i c t , ( U n i v e r s i t y , o f C a l i f o r n i a , Berkeley: I n s t i t u t e of I n t e r n a t i o n a l Studies, 1966), pp. 1 9 - 4 0 . K a r l W. D e u t s c h , The N e r v e s o f G o v e r n m e n t , New F r e e P r e s s , 1 9 6 6 , p. 23 0.  York:  The  Dean G. P r u i t t , "An A n a l y s i s o f R e s p o n s i v e n e s s B e t w e e n N a t i o n s " J o u r n a l o f C o n f l i c t R e s o l u t i o n , V o l . V I , No. 1, p. 5-18.  - 73 -  be  t h e p r i m a r y v a l u e t h e c o n c l u s i o n s about l o s s e s and g a i n s would  be  s i m i l a r , a s most o b s e r v e r s f e e l  t h a t t h e Sino-Burmese n e g o t i a -  t i o n s d i d c o n s t i t u t e something c l o s e t o Deutsch's  "effective  communication": I t w o u l d seem t h a t P e k i n g , i n t h i s n e g o t i a t i o n , . t h o u g h b a r g a i n i n g , h a r d a n d i n s i s t i n g o n some c o n c e s s i o n s , responded f o r i t s p a r t by making c o n c e s s i o n s t o t h e Burmese a n d f i n a l l y a r r i v e d at a m u t u a l l y a c c e p t a b l e arrangement t h a t d i d not bear t h e c l e a r marks o f overweening Chinese power.116/ Change i n I s s u e A r e a .  I n t h e same s t u d y , t h r o u g h  a  s e r i e s o f manipulations Deutsch introduced v a l u e s other than the simple l o s s o r g a i n d e f i n e d i n d o l l a r terms. b a r g a i n e r s were t h e n l e s s i n c l i n e d  toward  He f o u n d  effective  that the  communication  (communication t h a t enhanced t h e d o l l a r g a i n s o f b o t h  actors).  I f t h e change i n i s s u e a r e a i n t h e S i n o - I n d i a n case were c o n s i d e r e d a n a l o g o u s t o D e u t s c h ' s i n t r o d u c t i o n of o t h e r v a l u e s and t h e a v o i d a n c e o f v i o l e n c e a g a i n h e l d t o be t h e p r i m a r y v a l u e t h e same c o n c l u s i o n w o u l d be Systemic concept  reached.  Variable; Flexibility,  responsiveness  and R e s p o n s i v e n e s s .  The  has been d e f i n e d by D e u t s c h a s :  ...the p r o b a b i l i t y o f " f a v o r a b l e " o r adequate r e s p o n s e w i t h i n a r e l e v a n t t i m e , where f a v o u r a b l e , a d e q u a t e a n d r e l e v a n c e c a n be d e f i n e d i n t e r m s of e m p i r i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e system under study.117/  116/  Arthur L a l l . How Communist C h i n a N e g o t i a t e s , New Y o r k : C o l u m b i a U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 6 8 . p. 1 8 8 . T h i s a u t h o r n o t e s s i m i l a r p a t t e r n s i n Chinese n e g o t i a t i o n s w i t h smaller A s i a n states.  117/  K a r l W. D e u t s c h ,  o p . c i t . , p. I X .  - 74  -  f u r t h e r d e f i n e s i t as . . . t h e a b i l i t y (of one p o l i t i c a l u n i t ) t o g i v e messages from other p o l i t i c a l u n i t s adequate w e i g h t i n t h e m a k i n g o f t h e i r own d e c i s i o n s , t o p e r c e i v e t h e n e e d s o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n s and e l i t e s o f t h e s e o t h e r u n i t s , and t o r e s p o n d t o them q u i c k l y and a d e q u a t e l y i n t e r m s o f p o l i t i c a l or economic a c t i o n . 1 1 8 / One  measurement o f t h i s c o n c e p t  w o u l d be v e r y much l i k e  measurement of the a s s o c i a t i o n o f the outputs used e a r l i e r  i n the paper.  the  systemic v a r i a b l e  with  Both n o t i o n s are r e l a t e d  to  119/ t h e c y b e r n e t i c p r o b l e m of "the b l a c k box". t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n s y s t e m i c v a r i a b l e and of responsiveness,  the  '  Using  the  rela-  o u t p u t s as a measurement  "adequate l e v e l " of response  could  be  d e f i n e d a s t h e e x i s t e n c e o f more t h a n a c h a n c e r e l a t i o n s h i p t w e e n i n p u t s and  o u t p u t s and u s i n g t h e c o n c l u s i o n s on  d a t a , Burma w o u l d be c l a s s i f i e d unresponsive.  In t h i s case  Pruitt's  systemic  India  as  a l s o t h e Burmese o u t p u t s w o u l d seem  t o c o n t a i n t h e added d i m e n s i o n D e u t s c h ' s and  a s r e s p o n s i v e and  be-  of  "favourableness"  specified  in  definitions.  Working from h i s d e f i n i t i o n of r e s p o n s i v e n e s s ,  Pruitt  comes up w i t h a number o f h y p o t h e s e s a b o u t t h e t y p i c a l n e g o t i a t i n g behaviour  o f a r e s p o n s i v e n a t i o n t h a t seem w e l l i n l i n e w i t h  negotiating, behaviour 118/  P r u i t t , 0£.  o f Burma and  c i t . , p.  1 1 9 / A s h b y , Op_. e x t . , p p . The m e a s u r e m e n t v a r i a b l e and o u t p u t s s p e c i f i c a t i o n s about  t h a t account  w e l l f o r the  5. 8-6-0.17. of t h e a s s o c i a t i o n between s y s t e m i c and "the. b l a c k box" p r o b l e m make no f a v o u r a b l e n e s s however.  the  - 75 -  d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s b e t w e e n t h e I n d i a n a n d Burmese situations. a)  His first  h y p o t h e s i s was t h a t :  The more r e s p o n s i v e a n e g o t i a t o r t h e more w i l l i n g he w i l l be t o make c o s t l y c o n c e s s i o n s to t h e other s i d e . This implies i n turn that a more r e s p o n s i v e n e g o t i a t o r w i l l u s u a l l y h a v e a f a l l - b a c k p o s i t i o n which i s l e s s favourable to h i m s e l f . 1 2 0 / T h a t Burma was more l i k e l y  and  I n d i a t o make  concessions  t h a t t h e s e c o n c e s s i o n s w e r e u s u a l l y more c o s t l y t h a n  made b y I n d i a was e v i d e n c e d on f l e x i b i l i t y of  than  by t h e data presented  and r i g i d i t y .  those  i n the section  These c o n c e s s i o n s a n d d e s c r i p t i o n s  Burmese n e g o t i a t i n g b e h a v i o u r  such as Tang's:  W h i l e t h e Burmese G o v e r n m e n t o f f i c i a l l y d i s a l l o w e d t h e s e c l a i m s , i n O c t o b e r 1957 t h e C a b i n e t ' s F o r e i g n A f f a i r s Sub-Committee d e c i d e d t h a t i n t h e event of Peking's r e j e c t i o n of the p r e v i o u s l y s u b m i t t e d Burmese p r o p o s a l s , new c o n d i t i o n s s h o u l d be a c c e p t e d a s t h e b a s i s f o r settlement.121/ indicate the existence of f a l l - b a c k b)  positions,  The more r e s p o n s i v e a n e g o t i a t o r , t h e l e s s f i r m l y w i l l he a d h e r e t o h i s Own p r o p o s a l s when t h e y h a v e b e e n r e j e c t e d b y t h e o t h e r side. This hypothesis i s also d i r e c t l y related to the notion  of  flexibility.  Adhering  " t o h i s own p r o p o s a l s a f t e r t h e y  been r e j e c t e d by t h e o t h e r s i d e " of  i s analogous t o the r e i t e r a t i o n  o u t p u t s used above i n d e f i n i n g f l e x i b i l i t y  rigidity.  Burma t h e most r e s p o n s i v e n a t i o n was l e s s l i k e l y  1 2 0 / P r u i t t , op_. C i t . , p . 1 6 . 121/ Tang/ o p . c i t . , p. 596.  have  Again  to reiterate  - 76 -  proposals-than  was I n d i a .  The r e i t e r a t i o n o f p r e v i o u s p o s i t i o n s ,  was a s t r i k i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f t h e S i n o - I n d i a n  exchange.  A n o t h e r h y p o t h e s i s was: The a s s u m p t i o n t h a t r e s p o n s i v e n e s s c a u s e s g r e a t e r w i l l i n g n e s s t o abandon p r o p o s a l s t h a t a r e r e j e c t e d by t h e o t h e r p a r t y i m p l i e s t h a t n e g o t i a t i o n s w i l l p r o c e e d more r a p i d l y a n d w i t h l e s s c o n f l i c t t h e more r e s p o n s i v e a r e t h e n e g o t i a t o r s t o one a n o t h e r .-'-22/ This hypothesis age  between o u t p u t s  a flexible  i s i n e f f e c t a restatement  and consequences a s d e f i n e d  series of outputs,  of the l i n k -  i n t h i s paper,  t y p i c a l of the responsive  nation  that will  t e n d t o r e s u l t i n s u c c e s s f u l n e g o t i a t i o n s and i n l e s s c o n f l i c t w i t h i n t h e s y s t e m a n d t h a t t h e more r i g i d t y p i c a l of the unresponsive,  will  tend  s e r i e s o f outcomes,  to result i n unsuccessful  n e g o t i a t i o n s a n d more c o n f l i c t w i t h i n t h e s y s t e m . P r u i t t then introduces the concept o f f a t e c o n t r o l which he d e f i n e s a s t h e a b i l i t y o f a p l a y e r t o ...move t h e o t h e r p l a y e r ' s r e w a r d - c o s t p o s i t i o n t o a new p o s i t i o n . The g r e a t e r t h e r a n g e o f v a l u e s t h r o u g h w h i c h he c a n move t h e o t h e r , t h e . g r e a t e r h i sf a t e c o n t r o l over the other.123/ He t h e n  hypothesizes: When o n e s i d e ' s f a t e c o n t r o l c a u s e s t h e o t h e r t o be more r e s p o n s i v e , t h e f i r s t s i d e n e e d r e l y l e s s i n n a k e d t h r e a t s - o r p r o m i s e s t o g e t w h a t he w a n t s . T h i s i n t u r n may c a u s e t h e n e g o t i a t i o n s t o p r o c e e d more r a p i d l y w i t h l e s s c h a n c e o f f a i l u r e . . . 1 2 4 /  122/  P r u i t t , 0£. c i t . , p . 1 6 .  123/  I b i d . , p. 1 3 .  124/  I b i d . , p. 16.  - 77  W i t h a l m o s t any C h i n a w o u l d be  -  o p e r a t i o n a l d e f i n i t i o n of the  f o u n d t o h a v e more f a t e c o n t r o l o v e r Burma t h a n  o v e r I n d i a . . The  knowledge of  t h i s was  p o l i c y m a k i n g o f b o t h Burma and on  the  a s s u m p t i o n t h a t the use  l i k e l i h o o d of be  i s s u e s of  a major f a c t o r i n  India.  The  the  The  i s s u e from the  i s based  use  happened i n the  Sino-Indian  the  of t h r e a t s  could  s i t u a t i o n a t hand, here  t e r r i t o r y , to issues t h a t are l e s s easy to  status, national pride, f a i r  The  hypothesis  the  of t h r e a t s t e n d s t o l e s s e n  successful negotiations.  assumed t o e n l a r g e  the disputed  term f a t e c o n t r o l  p l a y and  negotiate,  r i g h t conduct,  case.  more i n t e r e s t i n g c o n t r a s t s r e s u l t i n g f r o m t h e  of d i f f e r e n t consequences t o the differences in size,  system a r o s e not  question  a s much f r o m  " t h r e a t p o t e n t i a l " , o r f a t e c o n t r o l as  t h e d i f f e r e n c e s i n i s s u e a r e a s and s i b l e f o r these consequences. independent v a r i a b l e .  as  from  p r o c e s s e s t h a t seem t o be  S i z e need n o t  l a t t e r p a r t o f t h e a n a l y s i s w i t h w h a t seem t o be c o n c e p t s , p r o c e s s v a r i a b l e s , becoming the  respon-  be v i e w e d h e r e as  In f a c t the model changes f o c u s i n  the  the  the  t h e more u s e f u l  independent v a r i a b l e s .  Conclusions; A model o r some o f w h i c h a)  "pre-theory"  may  evaluated  using  criteria  are: the  a b i l i t y o f t h e m o d e l t o f o c u s on e m p i r i c a l l y  s i g n i f i c a n t questions b)  be  and  comparisons,  t h e o r g a n i z i n g power o f t h e  model,  78  c)  the  d)  the model's  -  ease o f d e f i n i t i o n w i t h i n the model  This exploratory  originality. t w o - c a s e s t u d y w o u l d seem t o  t h a t the method o f d i s t i n g u i s h i n g between c o u n t r i e s the  and,  pre-theory i s a f r u i t f u l  one.  indicate  provided  In t h i s case study Rosenau's  scheme f o c u s s e d a t t e n t i o n u p o n some c l e a r l y i d e n t i f i a b l e in  p r o c e s s , o u t p u t s and The  levels.  The  by  differences  consequences.  m o d e l o r g a n i z e s e x i s t i n g k n o w l e d g e on a t l e a s t p r e - t h e o r y as m o d i f i e d  h e r e and  as Rosenau  two  suggests  125/ it  should  the  ' brings  s y s t e m i c and The  and  w i t h i n a s i n g l e framework, work done a t  subsystemic l e v e l s .  c o n c e p t s n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e s and  t h e i r linkages  i n c l u d e many o f  process  their  systematization.  leads  t o the  variables  the v a r i a b l e s t h a t c o u l d  f o u n d i n t r a d i t i o n a l f o r e i g n p o l i c y a n a l y s i s and  earlier,  also  As  i n a case study i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o choose o n l y  two  aspects of a process v a r i a b l e f o r study.  the  e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a number o f c o m p a r a b l e s t u d i e s and  d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s of a c l u s t e r of nations  125/  that  stated one  or  T h i s p r o b l e m makes measures  difficult.  P r o b l e m s a r e e n c o u n t e r e d when t h e  p l a y e d an  be  attempt  I t i s t h i s i n c l u s i v e n e s s , however,  problem of . d e f i n i t i o n w i t h i n the model.  o f p o t e n c y more  both  systems.  This  bordering  i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n the  R o s e n a u , op_. c i t . , p.  47.  model i s a p p l i e d  c a s e s t u d y was  u p o n e a c h o t h e r and analysis.  concerned  at with  relative size  In l o o k i n g  a t the  global  - 79 -  system, however, s i z e i n an a b s o l u t e  s e n s e w o u l d be t h e  relevant  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c w i t h a consequent d i f f e r e n t s e t of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s and  method o f a n a l y s i s .  This  a s p e c t o f t h e model a l s o  the  problem of t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f a t t r i b u t e s .  s i z e t o be a n a t i o n a l a t t r i b u t e . configuration  When a s s o c i a t e d  i n t h e s y s t e m i t may  presents  Here I have t a k e n w i t h t h e power  a l s o be c o n s i d e r e d  an a t t r i b u t e  of the system. The o r i g i n a l i t y o f a m o d e l h a s b e e n d e f i n e d "its improbability within given  time and p l a c e . "  126/ '  foreign policy analysts  the ensemble of p o s s i b l e models a t a W i t h t h e o f t e n commented u p o n gap b e t w e e n 127/  and s y s t e m i c a n a l y s i s ,  b a b i l i t y o f a model d e r i v i n g i t s s t r e n g t h b e t w e e n t h e f i e l d s was f a i r l y  1 2 6 / D e u s t c h , op_. c i t . , p .  as b e i n g  ' the impro-  from t h e  linkages  high.  18  1 2 7 / See e s p e c i a l l y : J . 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F o r e i g n P o l i c y D e c i s i o n M a k i n g , New Y o r k : F r e e P r e s s , 1962. S o n d e r m a n n , F r e d A. "The L i n k a g e b e t w e e n F o r e i g n P o l i c y and I I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s " i n J . N . R o s e n a u , (ed.) International j P o l i t i c s and F o r e i g n P o l i c y : A Reader i n R e s e a r c h and T h e o r y , New Y o r k : F r e e P r e s s , 19 61. S t e e l e , A.T. The A m e r i c a n P e o p l e a n d C h i n a . H i l l , 19"5F:  New  York:  McGraw-  T a n g , P e t e r , S.G. Communist C h i n a T o d a y . V o l . 1. Research I n s t i t u t e on t h e S i n o - S o v i e t B l o c , W a s h i n g t o n , D.C., 1961. T i n k e r , Hugh, T h e U n i o n o f Burma. L o n d o n : P r e s s , 1957? T h i e n , Ton T h a t , I n d i a and S o u t h E a s t A s i a , L i b r a i r i e D r o z , 1963.  Oxford  University  1947-1960.  T o c q u e v i l l e , A l e x i s De. D e m o c r a c y i n A m e r i c a V o l . 1. York: Schocken B o o k s , 1961.  Geneve: New  T r a g e r , F r a n k N. Burma f r o m K i n g d o m t o R e p u b l i c , New F r e d e r i c k A. P r a e g e r , 1966.  York:  Verba, Sidney. "Assumptions o f R a t i o n a l i t y and N o n - r a t i o n a l i t y i n Models o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l System" i n K l a u s K n o r r and S i d n e y V e r b a , ( e d s . ) T h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l S y s t e m , pp. 93-117. W a l i n s k y , L o u i s J . E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t o f Burma , 1951-60. New Y o r k : The T w e n t i e t h C e n t u r y F u n d , 1962. . "The R i s e a n d F a l l o f U Nu", P a c i f i c A f f a i r s , F a l l W i n t e r , 1 9 6 5 - 6 6 , pp 2 6 9 - 2 8 1 . W h i t t a m , Daphne E., "The S i n o - B u r m e s e T r e a t y " , P a c i f i c Summer 1 9 6 1 , p p . 1 7 4 - 1 8 4 .  &  Affairs,.  - 86 -  .  .  HANDBOOKS. AND  INDICES  .Asian R e c o r d e r . B a n k s , A r t h u r S., a n d R o b e r t B. T e x t o r . • A C r o s s - P o l i t y S u r v e y . C a m b r i d g e , M a s s . : M.I.T. P r e s s , 196.3. B r i t a n n i c a Book o f t h e Y e a r , 1 9 5 5 - 1 9 6 2 . F a c t s on F i l e ,  195 5-196 2.  The I n t e r n a t i o n a l Y e a r Book, a n d •Statesmen's Who's Who. 1960 . Keesing's Contemporary A r c h i v e s . M a l l o r y , Walter New Y o r k :  1956 a n d  1955-1962.  H., ( e d . ) . P o l i t i c a l Handbook o f t h e W o r l d . H a r p e r B r o t h e r s , 1956 a n d 1 9 6 0 .  The New Y o r k T i m e s I n d e x . 1 9 5 5 - 1 9 6 2 . R u s s e t t , . B r u c e M., e t a l . W o r l d Handbook o f P o l i t i c a l a n d S o c i a l Indicators. New Haven: Y a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1964.  GOVERNMENT  PUBLICATIONS  Burma. Towards Peace and Democracy. Information> 1949.  Rangoon:  Ministry of  China. Documents o n t h e S i n o - I n d i a n B o u n d a r y Q u e s t i o n . F o r e i g n Language P r e s s , 1960. India.  Peking:  J a w a h a r l a l Nehru on I n d i a - C h i n a R e l a t i o n s . J a w a h a r l a l Nehru's Speeches: 1959-1963.  N o t e s , Memoranda a n d L e t t e r s E x c h a n g e d B e t w e e n I n d i a and China. V. 1 a n d V . 3-10. Prime M i n i s t e r on S i n o - I n d i a n R e l a t i o n s . 1962.  APPENDIX A  INPUTS AND ACTUAL . TIME  TIME PERIOD  1949  1  1954  2  1955 Nov.  3  19 55* Dec.  4  1956 1956  6  1956  7  1956  8 9  1956 O c t . 1956 O c t . 1956 O c t .  10 11 12  1956 O c t . 1956 O c t .  13  OUTPUTS FOR BURMA  INPUTS  OUTPUTS  No s p e c i f i c i n p u t . The c o m i n g t o power o f t h e C o m m u n i s t r e g i m e . J o i n t communique e x p r e s s i n g t h e need f o r a p e a c e f u l b o r d e r s e t t l e ment. C h i n e s e c l a i m p a r t o f Wa  State  R e j e c t 19 41 L i n e a s an i l l e g a l  line  Reject proposal f o r withdrawal t o 1941 L i n e a n d c l a i m p a r t o f K a c h i n S t a t e n o r t h 25°. P r o p o s e t h e s e t t i n g up o f a commission. P r o p o s e w i t h d r a w a l t o t h e 1941 L i n e , t h e McMahon L i n e , a n d t h e I r r a w a d d y S a l w e e n w a t e r s h e d i f t h e Burmese do n o t r e o c c u p y t h e Hpimaw a r e a . Agree t o meet. C h i n e s e c l a i m b o r d e r s h o u l d be e a s t o f t h e McMahon L i n e . C h i n e s e a c c e p t 1941 L i n e a s p a r t o f a general settlement Chinese accept the Irrawaddy-Salween watershed Chinese accept the " t r a d i t i o n a l c u s t o m a r y " L i n e w h i c h t h e Burmese t a k e t o be t h e McMahon L i n e . C h i n e s e c l a i m t h e Hpimaw a r e a .  A request  f o r a border  settlement.  J o i n t communique e x p r e s s i n g t h e n e e d f o r a peaceful border settlement. Demand w i t h d r a w a l o f C h i n e s e t r o o p s t o t h e 19 41 l i n e . S u g g e s t w i t h d r a w a l t o t h e 1941 l i n e a s an i n t e r i m measure u n t i l a s e t t l e m e n t reached. P r o t e s t and r e j e c t C h i n e s e c l a i m s . CO CO  R e j e c t but propose a meeting o f governments i n s t e a d . Accept proposal.  A g r e e t o meet. Burmese r e j e c t t h i s a n d c l a i m r e s p e c t for B r i t i s h lines. Burmese demand a c c e p t a n c e o f I r r w a d d y Salween watershed a l s o . Burmese demand a c c e p t a n c e o f t h e McMahon Line. Burmese g i v e up t h e Namwan T r a c t i n r e t u r n for the Chinese acceptance of B r i t i s h lines. Burmese a c c e p t t h i s c l a i m .  ACTUAL TIME  TIME INPUTS PERIOD  1956 D e c .  14  1957 M a r .  15  1957 M a r .  16  1957  17  1957 M a r . 1957 J u l . 1957 J u l .  18 19 20  1958 J a n .  21  1958 J a n .  22  1959 J u n .  23  1959 Sept.' ' 24 1960 J a n .  25  C h i n e s e g i v e up t h e Namwan T r a c t f o r t h e Hpimaw a r e a . Chinese c l a i m t h e area i n h a b i t e d by the Panghang and P a n g l a o t r i b e s . Chinese " t r a d i t i o n a l customary" l i n e a c c e p t e d i n 1956 i s n o t t h e same a s t h e McMahon L i n e . (See period 14.). C h i n e s e w o u l d g i v e up m i n i n g r i g h t s i n Lufang area i n return f o r acceptance o f " t r a d i t i o n a l customary" l i n e . C h i n e s e c l a i m 186 s q . m i . a t Hpimaw. Same a s a b o v e C h i n e s e e x t e n d c l a i m i n Panghang a r e a t o 86 s q . m i . Chinese accept the watershed p r i n c i p l e i n substance but s t a t e there must be e x c e p t i o n s f o r m o n a s t e r i e s and h e r b g r o w i n g a r e a s . C h i n e s e c l a i m 86 s q . m i . i n t h e Panghang d i s t r i c t . No s p e c i f i c i n p u t P e k i n g a c c e p t s June o f f e r and proposes d e t a i l e d n e g o t i a t i o n s . Sign Boundary Agreement.  OUTPUTS  Burmese a c c e p t t h i s a n d o f f e r 56 s q . m i . i n t h e Hpimaw a r e a . Burmese r e j e c t t h i s c l a i m . Burmese r e j e c t t h i s c l a i m a n d i n s i s t upon t h e w a t e r s h e d p r i n c i p l e . Burmese r e j e c t  proposal.  Burmese r e j e c t c l a i m . Same a s a b o v e . Burmese r e j e c t c l a i m Burmese r e j e c t a n d s t a t e t h a t t h e r e m u s t be no e x c e p t i o n s . Burmese r e j e c t c l a i m . Burmese o f f e r 62 s q . m i . i n t h e P a n g h a n g area. Burmese a c c e p t . S i g n Boundary Agreement.  APPENDIX B  INPUTS AND OUTPUTS FOR INDIA ACTUAL TIME  OUTPUTS  TIME INPUTS PERIOD  1958 Dec.  14  19 58 Nov. 3 C h i n e s e a s k f o r a settlement  1959 Mar.  22  19 59 J a n . 23 A s k f o r a m e e t i n g t o discuss border problems.  1959 Sept.  26  border  19 59 S e p t . 8 a. C l a i m b o r d e r i s n o t d e l i m i t e d a n d make c l a i m t o " t r a d i t i o n a l customary" Chinese p o r t i o n . b. A s k f o r n e g o t i a t i o n s . c. No s p e c i f i c i n p u t .  1959 Nov.  4  1959 Nov.  1959 O c t . 2 5 . C l a i m K o n g k a P a s s i n the Middle Sector.  16  1959 Nov. 27 a. P r o p o s e w i t h d r a w a l o f 20 k i l . f r o m McMahon L i n e . b. P r o p o s e w i t h d r a w a l o f 20 k i l . from l i n e o f a c t u a l c o n t r o l i n Western S e c t o r . c. No s p e c i f i c i n p u t d. No s p e c i f i c i n p u t . e. P r o p o s e t a l k s .  area  D e c l a r e b o r d e r s a r e d e l i m i t e d and r e j e c t request f o r settlement. Reject proposal f o r meeting  a. L a y c l a i m t o d i s p u t e d a r e a l e g a l arguments.  through  b. R e j e c t p r o p o s a l f o r n e g o t i a t i o n s . c . Make a p r o p o s a l f o r w i t h d r a w a l f r o m a n d t a l k s o v e r Tamaden. R e j e c t C h i n e s e c l a i m a n d make a claim. a. R e j e c t  proposal.  b. R e j e c t  proposal.  counter-  c. Make p r o p o s a l t h a t t h e r e b e no p a t r o l s d. Make p r o p o s a l t o v a c a t e L o n g j u . e. A c c e p t t a l k s i f C h i n e s e w i t h d r a w t o l i n e on I n d i a n maps a n d I n d i a n s t o l i n e on C h i n e s e maps.  ACTUAL TIME 1959 Dec.  1960 Feb.  1959 D e c . 17 a. P r o p o s e 20 k i l . w i t h d r a w a l a g a i n . b. A c c e p t I n d i a ' s L o n g j u p r o p o s a l c. Make p r o p o s a l t o e x t e n d t h e Longju proposal t o a l l of the Eastern Sector. d. A c c e p t p r o p o s a l f o r no p a t r o l s e. R e j e c t L a d a k h p r o p o s a l . f. R e i t e r a t e c l a i m s g. P r o p o s e D e c . 26 t a l k s b e t w e e n Prime M i n i s t e r s .  21  1959 D e c . 26 a. R e i t e r a t e C h i n e s e  5&6  b. c. d. e. No p u t p u t  OUTPUTS  TIME INPUTS PERIOD  8  claims  P r o p o s e 20 k i l . w i t h d r a w a l a g a i n . Propose n e g o t i a t i o n s . O f f e r t o r e s p e c t McMahon L i n e No s p e c i f i c i n p u t  f . No s p e c i f i c i n p u t . 1960 A p r i l 3 a. R e i t e r a t e c l a i m s . b. P r o p o s e 20 k i l . w i t h d r a w a l a g a i n . c. R e j e c t I n d i a n L a d a k h p r o p o s a l .  a. No s p e c i f i c b. A c c e p t . c . No s p e c i f i c  output. output.  d. A c c e p t . e. No s p e c i f i c o u t p u t . f. R e i t e r a t e c l a i m s . g. R e j e c t p r o p o s a l f o r t a l k s .  a. R e j e c t C h i n e s e c l a i m s a n d r e i t e r a t e Indian claims. b. R e j e c t w i t h d r a w a l p r o p o s a l . c. R e j e c t r e q u e s t f o r n e g o t i a t i o n s . d. No s p e c i f i c o u t p u t . e. P r o p o s e t a l k s b e t w e e n P r i m e M i n i s t e r s i n New D e l h i i n M a r c h . f . P r o p o s e w i t h d r a w a l a s i n p e r i o d 5e. a. No s p e c i f i c b. No s p e c i f i c c. No s p e c i f i c  outputs. output. output.  ACTUAL TIME  TIME INPUTS PERIOD  1960 M a r c h & April  9  a. M e e t a t New D e l h i b. No a g r e e m e n t c. A g r e e t o s e t up C o m m i s s i o n  a. M e e t a t New D e l h i b. No a g r e e m e n t o n s u b s t a n t i v e p r o b l e m s c. A g r e e t o s e t up C o m m i s s i o n  10  S i g n t h e Sino-Burmese Agreement  Protest  11  1961 F e b . 21 R e j e c t D e c . 30 p r o t e s t .  Protest  again.  12  1961 May 4 R e j e c t M a r . 30 p r o t e s t .  Protest  again.  13  I s s u e an E n g l i s h t r a n s l a t i o n o f t h e Report of O f f i c i a l s .  Reject  P r o t e s t a g a i n and accuse o f a g g r e s s i o n .  1960 Dec. 30 1961 M a r c h 30 1961 June 16 1961 J u n e 15  OUTPUTS  translation  1961 S e p t . 19 1961 S e p t . 28  14  1961 A u g . 6 R e j e c t J u n e 16 p r o t e s t  15  1962 May 31  1961 S e p t . 13 R e j e c t J u n e 15 p r o t e s t . R e c o g n i z e t h a t t h e r e i s a difference of opinion.  16  1961 Nov. 20 R e j e c t S e p t . 19 p r o t e s t and p r o t e s t s l a n d e r i n t h a t n o t e .  Protest  17  S i g n S i n o - P a k i s t a n Agreement  Protest.  18  1962 May 31 R e j e c t May 10 p r o t e s t .  Renew p r o t e s t .  19  1962 O c t . 24 a. P r o p o s e 20 k i l . w i t h d r a w a l f r o m l i n e o f a c t u a l c o n t r o l i n Ladakh a n d f r o m McMahon L i n e i n t h e Eastern Sector b. P r o p o s e m e e t i n g o f o f f i c i a l s t o n e g o t i a t e disengagement.  1962 May 10 1962 J u n e 30 1962 O c t . 27  again.  a. R e j e c t  proposal  b. No s p e c i f i c o u t p u t  legitimate  ACTUAL TIME  TIME INPUTS PERIOD  OUTPUTS  c. P r o p o s e a m e e t i n g o f P r i m e Ministers. d. No s p e c i f i c input. 1962 Nov 14  1962 Nov.' 23  1962 Nov.  30  1962 Dec. 1  1962 Dec.  20  21  1962 Nov. 4 a. R e j e c t p r o p o s a l t o w i t h d r a w t o S e p t 8/62 p o s i t i o n s . b. P r o p o s e 20 k i l . w i t h d r a w a l a s before. c. P r o p o s e m e e t i n g o f o f f i c i a l s a s i n 19b. d. P r o p o s e m e e t i n g o f P r i m e Ministers. 1962 Nov. 21 a. D e c l a r e a u n i l a t e r a l ceasefire Nov. 2 2 . b. D e c l a r e a u n i l a t e r a l withdrawal o f 20 k i l . f r o m Nov. 7/59 p o s i t i o n s on D e c . 1. c. D e c l a r e u n i l a t e r i a l installation of c i v i l i a n p o l i c e a t checkposts. d. P r o p o s e t a l k s b e t w e e n P r i m e Ministers.  22  1962 Nov. 26 C l a r i f y proposals.  23  1962 Nov. 28  previous  c. R e j e c t u n t i l t h e r e of t e n s i o n . d. P r o p o s e w i t h d r a w a l positions. a. R e i t e r a t e *>..  proposal.  Reject  c. R e j e c t . d. R e j e c t  a. A s k f o r c l a r i f i c a t i o n . b. Ask f o r c l a r i f i c a t i o n . c. A s k f o r c l a r i f i c a t i o n . d. No s p e c i f i c  output.  Request f u r t h e r  clarification.  a. W i l l p r o c e e d w i t h Nov. 21 p r o p o s a l a. No s p e c i f i c output. b. R e j e c t p r o p o s a l f o r t a l k s . b. P r o p o s e t a l k s b e t w e e n P r i m e Ministers. 19  24  19 62 D e c . 8 R e i t e r a t e Nov. 4 p r o p o s a l s .  clarification  Reject  proposals  APPENDIX C  - 96  -  Map  1  I n d i a , W e s t e r n and M i d d l e  Sectors  - 97  -  Map  2  India, Eastern  Sector  - 98 -  Map 3 Burma  

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