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Maximalism and minimalism in American strategy, 1954-1968 Paton, Lorne Cheatham Flather 1973

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=1 MAXIMALISM AND MINIMALISM IN AMERICAN STRATEGY, 1954-1968 by LORNE CHEATHAM FLATHER PATON B.A., University of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1969 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS in the Department of History We accept t h i s thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA September, 1973 In p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r an advanced degree a t the U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree t h a t the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and s t u d y . I f u r t h e r agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be g r a n t e d by the Head o f my Department o r by h i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l n o t be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . Department o f The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada Date foj^t -zU^tQV5 i A B S T R A C T T h i s t h e s i s w i l l e x a m i n e t h e c o n t e n t o f A m e r i c a n n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y b e t w e e n 1954 a n d 1968, a n d w i l l a n a l y z e t h e f a c t o r s s h a p i n g t h a t s t r a t e g y . The f i r s t p r o b l e m w i l l be e x a m i n e d w i t h i n t h e t h e o r e t i c a l c o n t e x t o f t h e m a x i m a l i s t -m i n i m a l i s t s t r a t e g i c c o n t i n u u m . M i n i m a l i s m , t h e p o l e t o w a r d w h i c h W a s h i n g t o n was i n c l i n e d a t t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e t h e r m o -n u c l e a r a g e , i n v o l v e d a c o u n t e r v a l u e t h r e a t , o r a t h r e a t t o enemy p o p u l a t i o n a n d i n d u s t r y , a n d a r e l a t i v e l y l o w a s s e s s -ment o f t h e f o r c e s r e q u i r e d f o r t h i s m i s s i o n . M a x i m a l i s m , o n t h e o t h e r h a n d , i n v o l v e d a c o u n t e r f o r c e s t r a t e g y , t h a t i s t o s a y a s t r a t e g y d i r e c t e d p r i m a r i l y a g a i n s t enemy s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s , a n d a r e l a t i v e l y h i g h e s t i m a t e o f t h e f o r c e s r e q u i r e d . A l t h o u g h n e v e r e n t i r e l y e m b r a c e d b y t h e h i g h e s t A m e r i c a n d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s , t h i s l a t t e r p o l e r e p r e s e n t e d t h e g e n e r a l d i r e c t i o n i n w h i c h A m e r i c a n n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y e v o l v e d i n t h e f i r s t n i n e y e a r s a f t e r D u l l e s e n u n c i a t e d t h e d o c t r i n e o f m a s s i v e r e t a l i a t i o n i n 1954. T h i s t e n d e n c y was e v i d e n t i n E i s e n h o w e r ' s g r a d u a l a c c e p t a n c e o f t h e n e c e s -s i t y f o r p l a n n i n g o n t h e b a s i s o f a g r e a t e r t h a n e x p e c t e d t h r e a t ; i t was a l s o m a n i f e s t i n h i s r e l u c t a n t a c c e p t a n c e o f c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e , a s t r a t e g y d e p e n d e n t p r i m a r i l y u p o n d e t e r r e n c e t h r o u g h a c o u n t e r v a l u e t h r e a t b u t a l s o i n v o l v i n g a m a r g i n a l c a p a c i t y f o r damage l i m i t a t i o n . E v e n more m a r k e d c h a n g e s came w i t h t h e a d v e n t o f K e n n e d y a n d McNamara t o power i n 1 9 6 1 . B e t w e e n t h e n a n d t h e C u b a n m i s s i l e c r i s i s i n 1962 t h e r e was a d i s t i n c t l y more p e s s i -m i s t i c a s s e s s m e n t o f t h e g r e a t e r t h a n e x p e c t e d t h r e a t a g a i n s t w h i c h p r o v i s i o n h a d t o be made. Of y e t g r e a t e r s i g n i f i c a n c e , t h e r e was a l s o a more e n e r g e t i c p u r s u i t o f a c a p a b i l i t y f o r c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e a n d a n i m p o r t a n t r e -f i n e m e n t o f t h a t s t r a t e g y i n t h e f o r m o f t h e " h o s t a g e c i t y " d o c t r i n e , a d o c t r i n e w h i c h p r o v i d e d f o r c i t y - a v o i d a n c e i n a t h e r m o n u c l e a r e x c h a n g e . A f t e r t h e m i s s i l e c r i s i s , how-e v e r , t h i s t e n d e n c y was r e v e r s e d t o a s u b s t a n t i a l e x t e n t , a n d b y e a r l y 1 9 6 8 , when McNamara l e f t o f f i c e , A m e r i c a n n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y was i n l a r g e m e a s u r e s i m i l a r t o t h a t o f t h e l a t t e r E i s e n h o w e r y e a r s i n i t s e m p h a s i s o n a n u c l e a r " s u f f i c i e n c y " a n d o n a c o u n t e r v a l u e p o l i c y . The s e c o n d p r o b l e m - t h e f a c t o r s u n d e r l y i n g t h e s e d e v e l o p m e n t s - w i l l be e x a m i n e d i n t e r m s o f f o u r m a i n v a r i a b l e c l u s t e r s . I d i o s y n c r a t i c f a c t o r s , t h o s e c h a r a c -t e r i s t i c s o f t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s w h i c h a r e p e c u l i a r t o t hem as i n d i v i d u a l s , e x e r t e d some i n f l u e n c e i n t h e p o l i c y p r o c e s s ; E i s e n h o w e r ' s t e n d e n c y t o b e l i e v e t h a t he c o u l d "muddle t h r o u g h " a n d t h e more v i g o r o u s a n d r a t i o n a l i z i n g t e n d e n c i e s o f K e n n e d y a n d McNamara p l a y e d a d i s t i n c t r o l e i n t h e e v o l u t i o n o f A m e r i c a n n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y . T e c h -n i c a l f a c t o r s , t h e s t a t e o f m i l i t a r y r e s e a r c h a n d o f t h e s t r a t e g i c b a l a n c e , w e r e n e v e r t h e l e s s o f g r e a t e r i m p o r t a n c e C o u n t e r f o r c e a r g u m e n t s , f o r e x a m p l e , c o u l d n o t g a i n e v e n m a r g i n a l a c c e p t a n c e u n t i l t h e r e h a d b e e n an i m p r o v e m e n t i n o f f e n s i v e weapons t e c h n o l o g y . M o r e i m p o r t a n t , t h e c e n t r a l f a c t f a c i n g A m e r i c a n d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s was t h a t i t was h i g h l y p r o b a b l e t h a t b o t h s u p e r p o w e r s w o u l d s u f f e r u n a c c e p t a b l e damage i n a t h e r m o n u c l e a r war a n d t h a t e v e n t h e i r g r e a t e s t e f f o r t s c o u l d n o t s a v e them. I n t h e l i g h t o f t h i s l a t t e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n , p r e v e n t i o n o f a t h e r m o n u c l e a r c o n f l i c t was e v e r t h e f i r s t p r i o r i t y o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . S o c i e t a l a n d e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s , t h o u g h , w e r e m o s t c r u c i a l . I n f l u e n c e s w h i c h w e r e e x t e r n a l t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , s u c h a s t h e c o u r s e o f S o v i e t d i p l o m a c y a n d t h e i v s t a t e o f t h e N.A.T.O a l l i a n c e , p l a y e d a n e s s e n t i a l p a r t i n d e f i n i n g t h e r o l e w h i c h n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y m ust f u l f i l l . I t was g e n e r a l l y a g r e e d , f o r e x a m p l e , t h a t t h e R u s s i a n s d i d n o t d e s i r e a t h e r m o n u c l e a r w a r , b u t t h e i r d e s i r e f o r e x p a n -s i o n o f t h e i r p o l i t i c a l i n f l u e n c e c a r r i e d w i t h i t some d a n g e r o f e s c a l a t i o n i n t o s u c h a c o n f l i c t . G i v e n t h e f o r m e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n , i t was h a r d t o j u s t i f y a n a l l - o u t e f f o r t t o a t t a i n a w a r f i g h t i n g c a p a b i l i t y ; g i v e n t h e l a t t e r , i t was s t i l l n e c e s s a r y t o p r o v i d e a t l e a s t a c o u n t e r v a l u e c a p a -b i l i t y , a n d a c a s e m i g h t e v e n be made a t t i m e s f o r d e v e l o p i n g a damage l i m i t i n g c a p a b i l i t y . F i n a l l y , t h e n a t u r e o f t h e s o c i e t y i t s e l f was a c e n t r a l i n f l u e n c e . A s was s e e n d u r i n g t h e d e b a t e o v e r t h e " m i s s i l e g a p , " t h e t r a d i t i o n o f m i l i t a r y s u p e r i o r i t y s t i l l c o l o u r e d t h e t h i n k i n g o f t h e p e o p l e o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , c a u s i n g them t o e x a g g e r a t e t h e t h r e a t t o t h e i r s e c u r i t y a n d t o h a n k e r a f t e r some f o r m o f ' n u c l e a r s u p e r i o r i t y " e v e n when t h e y r e a l i z e d t h a t a t h e r m o n u c l e a r w a r w o u l d p r o -b a b l y r e s u l t i n a m u t u a l d i s a s t e r . I t s e l f a component o f t h e c r e d i b i l i t y o f t h e A m e r i c a n d e t e r r e n t , t h e c l i m a t e o f p u b l i c o p i n i o n was b r o u g h t t o b e a r i n C o n g r e s s a n d a t e l e c t i o n t i m e . E i s e n h o w e r , whose p o l i c i e s f a i l e d t o V s u f f i c i e n t l y r e a s s u r e h i s p e o p l e , f o u n d t h i s f a i l u r e t o be a s u b s t a n t i a l d o m e s t i c l i a b i l i t y , a n d a m i l i t a r y -d i p l o m a t i c l i a b i l i t y o f e v e n g r e a t e r m a g n i t u d e . H i s s u c c e s s o r was i n c l i n e d t o a d o p t p o l i c i e s more i n a c c o r d w i t h t h e t e m p e r o f t h e A m e r i c a n p e o p l e , b o t h f r o m c o n -v i c t i o n a n d a s e n s e o f p o l i t i c a l e x p e d i e n c e . T h u s , t h e i n c r e a s i n g e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f A m e r i c a n o f f e n s i v e f o r c e s , t h e s e e m i n g l y u n r e m i t t i n g h o s t i l i t y o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n a n d t h e c o n c o m i t a n t d i v i s i o n s w i t h i n N.A.T.O. c o m b i n e d w i t h t h e o p t i m i s t i c a c t i v i s m o f t h e K e n n e d y a d m i n i s t r a t i o n a n d t h e d o m e s t i c c u r r e n t s u n d e r -l y i n g t h a t s p i r i t t o c r e a t e t h e more a g g r e s s i v e p o l i c i e s p u r s u e d b y t h a t a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . I t s p a r t i a l r e t r e a t f r o m t h o s e p o l i c i e s d u r i n g i t s l a s t y e a r , a n d t h e more e x t e n -s i v e r e t r e a t d u r i n g t h e J o h n s o n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n was t h e r e s u l t o f t h e i n c r e a s i n g l y a p p a r e n t f u t i l i t y o f t h e arms r a c e , t h e S o v i e t - A m e r i c a n d e t e n t e , a n d a p u b l i c o p i n i o n w h i c h was l e s s c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e q u e s t f o r s u p e r i o r i t y . v i TABLE OF CONTENTS A b s t r a c t i I n t r o d u c t i o n : The M i n i m a l i s t - M a x i m a l i s t C o n t i n u u m : G u i d e l i n e s f o r an A n a l y s i s o f A m e r i c a n N u c l e a r S t r a t e g y , 1 9 54-1961 1 C h a p t e r I : The E v o l u t i o n o f A m e r i c a n N u c l e a r S t r a t e g y u n d e r E i s e n h o w e r j Movement Away F r o m N e o - M i n i m a l i s m i n F o r c e P l a n n i n g , 1 9 5 4 - 1 9 6 1 24 C h a p t e r I I : The E v o l u t i o n o f A m e r i c a n N u c l e a r S t r a t e g y u n d e r E i s e n h o w e r : T e n t a t i v e D e f i n i t i o n o f C o e r c i v e D e t e r r e n c e , 1 9 6 0 - 1 9 6 1 52 C h a p t e r I I I : I n t i m a t i o n s o f N e o - M a x i m a l i s m : K e n n e d y a n d McNamara o n t h e E v e o f P o w e r , 1 9 6 0 - 1 9 6 1 81 C h a p t e r I V : Movement T o w a r d N e o - M a x i m a l i s m : The F i s c a l Y e a r 1962 B u d g e t 102 C h a p t e r V: B u i l d i n g a C a p a b i l i t y f o r C o e r c i v e D e t e r r e n c e : The F a l l o u t S h e l t e r P r o g r a m a n d t h e F i s c a l Y e a r 1963 B u d g e t 127 C h a p t e r V I : C o e r c i v e D e t e r r e n c e a t i t s Z e n i t h : The A d o p t i o n o f t h e " H o s t a g e C i t y " S t r a t e g y , 1962 165 C h a p t e r V I I : The D e c l i n e o f M a x i m a l i s m a n d t h e A s c e n d a n c e o f t h e " A s s u r e d D e s t r u c t i o n " C o n c e p t , 1962-1968 210 C o n c l u s i o n 244 F o o t n o t e s 252 B i b l i o g r a p h y 302 1. THE MINIMALIST-MAXIMALIST CONTINUUM: GUIDELINES  FOR AN ANALYSIS OF AMERICAN NUCLEAR STRATEGY, 1954-1961 One o f t h e m o s t f r u i t f u l t h e o r e t i c a l t o o l s a v a i l -a b l e t o t h e s t u d e n t o f n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y i s t h e m i n i m a l i s t -m a x i m a l i s t d i c h o t o m y . A d m i t t e d l y , t h i s m o d e l i n i t s e l f c o n -s t i t u t e s a p o o r d e s c r i p t i o n o f a c t u a l p o l i c y ; m a x i m a l i s m h a s n e v e r b e e n a c c e p t e d i n i t s e n t i r e t y b y t h o s e r e s p o n s i b l e f o r f i n a l d e c i s i o n s o n n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y , a n d m i n i m a l i s m h a s b e e n a c c e p t e d o n l y b r i e f l y . R a t h e r t h a n e m b r a c i n g e i t h e r o f t h e s e e x t r e m e s , d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s h a v e t e n d e d t o a d o p t h y b r i d s t r a t e g i e s , i n c o r p o r a t i n g e l e m e n t s o f b o t h i n t h e i r f i n a l d e c i s i o n s . T h e s e h y b r i d s , h o w e v e r , h a v e a l s o t e n d e d t o d r a w more h e a v i l y o n one p o l e t h a n o n t h e o t h e r . A s a r e s u l t , t h e m i n i m a l i s t - m a x i m a l i s t d i s t i n c t i o n s t i l l o f f e r s a u s e f u l f r a m e w o r k f o r i d e n t i f y i n g s t r a t e g i c i s s u e s a n d f o r c o m p a r i n g d i f f e r e n c e s o v e r t h e s e i s s u e s . 1. STRATEGIC THEORY: THE MINIMALIST-MAXIMALIST CONTINUUM The e s s e n t i a l p r o b l e m s c o n f r o n t i n g t h o s e r e s p o n -s i b l e f o r n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y h a v e b e e n d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e p r o p e r o b j e c t i v e s f o r s t r a t e g i c t h e r m o n u c l e a r weapons a n d o f t h e q u a n t i t y a n d q u a l i t y o f t h e f o r c e s r e q u i r e d t o a c h i e v e t h e s e o b j e c t i v e s . " ^ " T h e s e p r o b l e m s , l i k e t h o s e i n o t h e r a r e a s o f human e n d e a v o u r , f r e q u e n t l y i n v o l v e s i g n i f i c a n t a m b i g u i t i e s a n d u n c e r t a i n t i e s . B e c a u s e t h e r e a r e l i m i t a -t i o n s o n t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h " t h e f a c t s s p e a k f o r t h e m s e l v e s j u d g m e n t , i n t e r p r e t a t i o n , a nd t h e w e i g h i n g o f e v i d e n c e a r e i n t r i n s i c t o a n y p o l i c y p r o c e s s . The m a g n i t u d e o f 1 t h e p e n a l t i e s f o r e r r o r , h o w e v e r , makes t h i s f a c t o r - t h e f i n i t u d e o f human r e a s o n a n d t h e c o m p l e x i t y o f human p r o -b l e m s - p a r t i c u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t i n t h e r e a l m o f p o l i c y o n s t r a t e g i c w e a p o n s . U n d e r t h e s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s , d e c i s i o n -m a k e r s h a v e o f t e n h a d t o make a number o f i n f o r m e d g u e s s e s when f o r m u l a t i n g s t r a t e g y , a n d i n d o i n g s o t h e y h a v e i n -c l i n e d t o w a r d one o f t h e two s t r a t e g i c p o l e s . A. MINIMALISM M i n i m a l i s m i s g e n e r a l l y more o p t i m i s t i c t h a n i t s a n t i t h e s i s i n i t s a s s u m p t i o n s a b o u t t h e n a t u r e o f t h e oppon-2 e n t a n d t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f m o dern weapons t e c h n o l o g y . C o n s e q u e n t l y , i t e m p h a s i z e s t h e a d e q u a c y o f a c o u n t e r v a l u e t h r e a t , t h a t i s t o s a y a t h r e a t t o i n f l i c t u n a c c e p t a b l e damage on t h e p o p u l a t i o n a n d economy o f t h e o p p o n e n t , a n d i t i n v o l v e s r e l a t i v e l y l o w e s t i m a t e s o f t h e f o r c e s r e q u i r e d f o r t h i s t a s k . The s t a r t i n g p o i n t f o r t h e m i n i m a l i s t a n a l y s i s i s 3 . t h e p r o p o s i t i o n t h a t s t r a t e g i c t h e r m o n u c l e a r weapons h a v e c r e a t e d a n i r r e v e r s i b l e r e v o l u t i o n i n t h e n a t u r e o f w a r f a r e i n t h a t t h e y h a v e e r a s e d t h e d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n v i c t o r s a n d v a n q u i s h e d . G i v e n t h e c a p a c i t y o f t h e s e weapons f o r w r e a k -i n g enormous d e v a s t a t i o n i n a s h o r t p e r i o d o f t i m e , a n a p p r e c i a b l e d e f e n s e i s i m p o s s i b l e , a n d t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s i n a t h e r m o n u c l e a r e x c h a n g e w i l l i n e v i t a b l y be d e s t r o y e d as v i a b l e s o c i e t i e s . I n t h i s s e n s e , weapons t e c h n o l o g y h a s b e e n s t a t i c e v e r s i n c e t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e h y d r o g e n bomb a n d t h e f i r s t i n t e r c o n t i n e n t a l bomber; d e s p i t e o c c a s i o n a l f l u x i n some a s p e c t s o f t h i s t e c h n o l o g y , t h e c e n t r a l f a c t o f t h e t h e r m o -n u c l e a r age h a s b e e n a n d w i l l c o n t i n u e t o b e , t h e v u l n e r -i a b i l i t y o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n and economy o f e v e n t h e m o s t p o w e r -f u l n a t i o n . H e n c e , t h e h i t h e r t o c l a s s i c d e f i n i t i o n o f w a r as " a n a c t o f v i o l e n c e i n t e n d e d t o c o m p e l o u r o p p o n e n t s t o f u l f i l l o u r w i l l " i s e n t i r e l y i n a p p l i c a b l e i n t h e c a s e o f a 3 t h e r m o n u c l e a r c o n f l i c t . The o n l y r a t i o n a l p u r p o s e f o r t h e r m o n u c l e a r w eapons, t h e n , i s t o d e t e r t h e enemy f r o m i n i t i a t i n g s u c h a c o n f l i c t o r f r o m e m b a r k i n g u p o n a c o u r s e w h i c h c o u l d l e a d t o o n e . M o r e o v e r , as t h e f o r e g o i n g a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e d , t h e t r a d i t i o n a l o p t i o n o f c r e a t i n g a d e t e r r e n t b y a n u n m i s t a k -a b l e c a p a c i t y f o r d e f e a t i n g t h e enemy i s no l o n g e r o p e n . 4. A c o u n t e r v a l u e t h r e a t , a t h r e a t t o i n f l i c t u n a c c e p t a b l e damage on h i s s o c i e t y , i s now t h e o n l y one w h i c h i s t e c h -n i c a l l y f e a s i b l e , and f a u t e de m i e u x , i t must be t h e u l t i m -a t e d e t e r r e n t t o a t t a c k . S u c h a p r o s p e c t m i g h t seem d i s m a l i n d e e d a t f i r s t g l a n c e , f o r n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y i s d e p e n d e n t i n t h e f i n a l a n a l y s i s u p o n a t h r e a t t o c ommit s u i c i d e . T h i s p a r a -d o x m i g h t i n t u r n c o n f r o n t d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s w i t h a n a g o n i z i n g d i l e m m a . P r e s e r v a t i o n o f n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y o b v i o u s l y i n -v o l v e s d e t e r r i n g t h e enemy f r o m k i l l i n g o n e ' s own p e o p l e , b u t i t a l s o i n v o l v e s a f u r t h e r o b j e c t i v e . A t t e m p t s ' t o d e t e r a n enemy f r o m r e s o r t i n g t o v i o l e n c e i n t h e p r e - t h e r m o n u c l e a r age h a d o f t e n f a i l e d b e c a u s e men's f e a r o f d e a t h was p a r a -l l e l l e d b y t h e b e l i e f t h a t t h e r e w e r e some v a l u e s w h i c h w e r e w o r t h w i d e s p r e a d d e a t h a n d d e s t r u c t i o n , o r a t l e a s t W o r t h t h e r i s k o f s u c h c a l a m i t i e s . The u n p r e c e d e n t e d d e s t r u c t i v e -n e s s o f t h e r m o n u c l e a r weapons h a s w i t h o u t d o u b t g r e a t l y r e -d u c e d t h e number o f s u c h i s s u e s , b u t t h e r e a r e s t i l l some, s u c h a s p r e s e r v a t i o n o f o n e ' s own way o f l i f e a n d o f t h e c o n d i t i o n s deemed v i t a l f o r a t t a i n m e n t o f t h i s o b j e c t i v e , w h i c h a r e w o r t h c o n s i d e r a b l e p e r i l . I n v i e w o f t h i s , n a t i o n a l l e a d e r s h a v e two a p p a r e n t l y c o n t r a d i c t o r y t a s k s ; t h e y must 5. e n s u r e t h e p h y s i c a l s u r v i v a l o f t h e i r own p e o p l e w h i l e u s i n g t h e t h r e a t o f a s u i c i d a l n u c l e a r w a r t o d e t e r t h r e a t s t o t h o s e c o n d i t i o n s , w h i c h make l i f e w o r t h l i v i n g . A t h r e a t o f t h i s n a t u r e i s o b v i o u s l y c r e d i b l e i n t h e f i r s t i n s t a n c e ; i f one i s a b o u t to' be s l a u g h t e r e d , one ha s n o t h i n g 'to l o s e b y m a k i n g t h e s l a u g h t e r m u t u a l . I n t h e c a s e o f t h e s e c o n d t a s k , h o w e v e r , t h e t h r e a t m i g h t c o n c e i v -a b l y l a c k c r e d i b i l i t y . T h o s e m a k i n g t h e t h r e a t m i g h t , i n r a t h e r o v e r s i m p l i f i e d p o p u l a r t e r m i n o l o g y , p r e f e r t o b e " r e d " t h a n " d e a d " i f t h e enemy f o r c e d t h e i s s u e . Y e t more i m p o r t a n t , no m a t t e r w h a t t h e y w o u l d a c t u a l l y do i n a c r i s i s , t h e enemy may b e l i e v e t h a t t h i s d i l e m m a w i l l c a u s e t h e m t o f a l t e r i n t h e e v e n t o f p r o v o c a t i o n s s h b r t o f a n a l l - o u t a t t a c k o n t h e i r h o m e l a n d . T h i s b e l i e f - w h e t h e r i t i s w e l l f o u n d e d o r n o t - m i g h t i n t u r n e n c o u r a g e h i m t o embark upon s u c h p r o v o c a t i o n s . I n s u c h a n e v e n t , t h e s e c u r i t y o f f e r e d b y t h e c o u n t e r v a l u e t h r e a t w o u l d e v a p o r a t e ; t h e o n l y c h o i c e s w o u l d be a b j e c t s u r r e n d e r o r n u c l e a r a n n i h i l a t i o n . H a p p i l y , s o t h e m i n i m a l i s t s a r g u e , t h i s e v e n t u a l i t y i s e x t r e m e l y u n l i k e l y , as i s t h e d a n g e r o f i r r r a t i o n a l enemy a c t i o n . A c c o r d i n g t o them, t h e enemy i s r a t i o n a l , t h a t i s 6. t o s a y he b a s e s h i s a c t i o n s o n c a l c u l a t i o n s o f p r o s p e c t i v e g a i n s a n d l o s s e s . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h i s , h i s c ommitment t o t h r e a t e n i n g o n e ' s own v i t a l i n t e r e s t s i s f a r l e s s t h a n h i s commitment t o e n s u r i n g t h e p h y s i c a l s u r v i v a l o f h i s c o u n t r y . I t f o l l o w s f r o m t h i s t h a t he w i l l r e c o g n i z e t h e common i n t e r e s t o f t h e g r e a t p o w e r s i n a v o i d i n g e s c a l a t i o n o f t h e i r p o l i t i c a l c o n f l i c t s i n t o a n u c l e a r h o l o c a u s t and t h a t he w i l l a c t i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h i s r e c o g n i t i o n . I n d e e d , i n v i e w o f t h e v a s t d i s p a r i t y b e t w e e n h i s v a l u a t i o n o f t h e m a r g i n a l g a i n s w h i c h m i g h t a c c r u e f r o m c h a l l e n g i n g t h e d e t e r r e n t and h i s a s s e s s m e n t o f t h e r i s k s i n v o l v e d i n d o i n g s o , he w i l l e r r o n t h e s i d e o f c a u t i o n w h e r e t h e r e i s a p o s s i b i l i t y , t h o u g h n o t n e c e s s a r i l y a c e r t a i n t y , o f 4 n u c l e a r r e t a l i a t i o n . By t h e same t o k e n , t h i s f a c t o r a l s o c o n s t i t u t e s a g u a r a n t e e a g a i n s t i r r a t i o n a l i t y ; a c t i o n w i t h -i o u t c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s h a s become a n u n -t h i n k a b l e l u x u r y now t h a t t h o s e c o n s e q u e n c e s w i l l be s o v a s t . F o r t h e s e r e a s o n s t h e t h r e a t o f s u b s t a n t i a l , t h o u g h n o t n e c e s s a r i l y t o t a l , d e s t r u c t i o n o f t h e enemy p o p u -l a t i o n a n d economy c o n s t i t u t e s a h i g h l y r e l i a b l e g u a r a n t e e o f n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y . T h e i r a s s e s s m e n t o f t h e c a p a b i l i t i e s n e c e s s a r y f o r t h i s t h r e a t i s s h a p e d by s i m i l a r p r e m i s e s . On t h e one h a n d t h e t h r e a t w h i c h enemy f o r c e s may p o s e t o o n e ' s own i s h e l d t o be n e g l i g i b l e . E v e n i f he a t t a i n s a measure o f quan-t i t a t i v e and q u a l i t a t i v e s u p e r i o r i t y i t w i l l n o t p e r m i t h i m t o d e s t r o y s u f f i c i e n t f o r c e s t o s a v e h i s p e o p l e f r o m a n n i -h i l a t i o n , and, i n t h e a b s e n c e o f any s u d d e n i n c r e a s e i n h i s p e r c e p t i o n o f t h r e a t f r o m o n e s e l f , h i s r e a l i z a t i o n o f t h i s w i l l p r o b a b l y d i s c o u r a g e h i m f r o m p u r s u i n g s u c h a n empty 5 " s u p e r i o r i t y " . On t h e o t h e r hand, i t i s a l s o assumed t h a t o ne's own f o r c e s w i l l be i n c o n s t a n t r e a d i n e s s and t h a t t h e y w i l l o p e r a t e w i t h o u t t e c h n i c a l m a l f u n c t i o n when t h e o r d e r t o f i r e i s g i v e n . F o r c e p l a n n i n g i s t h e r e f o r e s i m p l y v i e w e d as a d i r e c t f u n c t i o n o f t h e number o f warheads r e q u i r e d t o i n f l i c t u n a c c e p t a b l e damage on t h e enemy. F u r t h e r m o r e , i t i s assumed t h a t o n l y a f r a c t i o n o f h i s p o p u l a t i o n and economy, r a t h e r t h a n t h e i r e n t i r e t y , n e e d be o b l i t e r a t e d i n o r d e r t o a c h i e v e t h i s end. The r e s u l t i n g f o r c e e s t i m a t e s a r e l i t e r a l l y m i n i m a l , i n a s m u c h as t h e y a r e t h e p r o d u c t o f t h e most o p t i m i s -t i c a s s e s s m e n t s o f t h e c o n d i t i o n s u n d e r w h i c h one's own s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s must o p e r a t e . F i n a l l y , one more c o n s i d e r a t i o n moves t h e m i n i m a l -i s t s t o f a v o u r s u c h e s t i m a t e s . Of n e c e s s i t y , t h e i r o v e r r i d i n g 8. c o n c e r n i s w i t h s t a b i l i t y , t h a t i s t o s a y a s t a t e i n w h i c h a n u c l e a r e x c h a n g e b e t w e e n t h e s u p e r p o w e r s i s h i g h l y i m p r o b -a b l e . 6 T h i s c o n d i t i o n may b e s t be a s s u r e d , t h e y b e l i e v e , i f t h e c i t i e s o f e a c h s i d e a r e o p e n t o a t t a c k b y t h e o t h e r ; e a c h s i d e i s r e s t r a i n e d b y i t s own v u l n e r a b i l i t y a n d r e -a s s u r e d b y t h e v u l n e r a b i l i t y o f i t s a d v e r s a r y . W i t h i n t h i s c o n t e x t o f m u t u a l v u l n e r a b i l i t y a n d a c o n c o m i t a n t r e c o r d o f m u t u a l r e s t r a i n t , w h a t e v e r u n c e r t a i n t i e s w h i c h do e x i s t w i l l t e n d t o f a v o u r t h i s s t a b i l i t y . A t t h e same t i m e , a n y a c t i o n - i n t e n t i o n a l o r u n i n t e n t i o n a l - w h i c h seems t o t h r e a t e n m u t u a l v u l n e r a b i l i t y w i l l b e h i g h l y d e -s t a b i l i z i n g . I n t h e f i r s t i n s t a n c e , i t w i l l c a u s e t h e enemy t° e x p a n d h i s armaments i n o r d e r t o p r e s e r v e h i s d e -t e r r e n t a n d i t w i l l i n c r e a s e h i s p e r c e p t i o n o f t h r e a t . I f t h i s s h o u l d h a p p e n , t h e e l e m e n t o f u n c e r t a i n t y w i l l t e n d t o r e i n f o r c e t h e s e t h r e a t s t o p e a c e ; w i t h t h e s t r a t e g i c b a l a n c e i n f l u x , a n d w i t h o n e ' s d i p l o m a t i c a n d s t r a t e g i c r e s t r a i n t i n d o u b t , t h e o p p o n e n t w i l l t e n d t o e r r o n t h e s i d e o f t o o much s t r e n g t h i n h i s f o r c e p l a n n i n g a r i d , p e r -h a p s , p r e - e m p t i o n i n t h e u s e o f t h o s e f o r c e s . E x p a n s i o n o f o n e ' s own f o r c e s b e y o n d t h e minimum p o i n t n e c e s s a r y f o r a c o u n t e r v a l u e c a p a b i l i t y , t h e n , m i g h t a c t u a l l y u n d e r m i n e 9. one's own security by causing an arms race which would exacer-bate tensions on both sides. B. MAXIMALISM Whereas minimalism i s a r e l a t i v e l y sanguine doctrine based upon a revolutionary view of nuclear weapons and a reassuring view of the opponent, maximalism's em-phasis on the perilous uncertainties of the world stems from a less d r a s t i c view of these weapons and a more alarm-ing view of the opponent. Its basic pessimism i s evident to some extent i n i t s emphasis on the necessity for a force s u f f i c i e n t to destroy v i r t u a l l y a l l of the adversary's population and industry, rather than only a f r a c t i o n of i t . Of far greater significance, the maximalists also contend that even a large countervalue c a p a b i l i t y such as t h i s i s inadequate by i t s e l f and that i t must be supplemented by a counterforce c a p a b i l i t y , that i s to say a c a p a b i l i t y for destroying the enemy's capacity to wreak unacceptable damage 7 upon oneself. F i n a l l y , i t also stresses the need to base force planning on the assumption of the "worst plausible case," that i s to say a highly pessimistic assessment of the conditions under which one's forces must accomplish 8 t h e i r objectives. 10. M a x i m a l i s t s c o n c e d e t h a t a t h e r m o n u c l e a r w a r c o u l d r e s u l t i n h o r r e n d o u s damage, b u t , u n l i k e t h e m i n i -m a l i s t s , t h e y do n o t b e l i e v e t h a t s u c h damage i s i n e v i t a b l e ; i t w o u l d s i m p l y be t h e r e s u l t o f a f a i l u r e t o t a k e t h e a p p r o p r i a t e p r e c a u t i o n s . A c c o r d i n g t o them, modern weapons t e c h n o l o g y s t i l l o f f e r s t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t one s i d e , o r p e r h a p s b o t h s i d e s , c a n d e v e l o p a c a p a c i t y f o r e s c a p i n g o b l i t e r a t i o n . I n a s e n s e , t h e n , t h i s t e c h n o l o g y i s d y n a m i c ; i t c a n y i e l d c o n s i d e r a b l e m i l i t a r y a n d p o l i t i c a l a d v a n t a g e t o t h e n a t i o n w h i c h e x p l o i t s i t e a r l i e s t a n d m o s t v i g o u r o u s l y . B e c a u s e a c o u n t e r f o r c e c a p a b i l i t y i s p o s s i b l e , s o t o o i s a w a r - w i n n i n g c a p a b i l i t y , t h a t i s t o s a y a c a p a b i l i t y f o r k e e p i n g damage t o o n e s e l f w i t h i n t o l e r a b l e l i m i t s w h i l e c o n f r o n t i n g t h e enemy w i t h t h e p r o s p e c t o f u n a c c e p t a b l e damage t o h i s s o c i e t y i f he d o e s n o t a g r e e t o o n e ' s p e a c e t e r m s . War - e v e n t h e r m o n u c l e a r w a r - i s c o n s e q u e n t l y f a r f r o m u n t h i n k a b l e ; as i t s c o n -s e q u e n c e s c a n s t i l l be l i m i t e d , i t s t i l l h o l d s o u t t h e p r o s p e c t o f v i c t o r y , a n d h e n c e a n e t g a i n , f o r one s i d e o r t h e o t h e r . T h i s c o n s i d e r a t i o n r e c e i v e s a d d e d w e i g h t i n t h e m a x i m a l i s t s ' a n a l y s i s as a r e s u l t o f t h e i r p e r c e p -11. t i o n s o f t h e enemy. A c c o r d i n g t o them, i t i s q u i t e p o s -s i b l e t h a t men w i l l a c t i r r a t i o n a l l y o r t h a t m i s p e r c e p t i o n w i l l c a u s e them t o c ommit t h e m s e l v e s more d e e p l y and i r -r e v o c a b l y t o a c o u r s e o f a c t i o n t h a n t h e y h a d o r i g i n a l l y i n t e n d e d . S e r i o u s as t h e s e p r o b l e m s may b e , t h e y a r e e x a c e r b a t e d b y t h e enemy's e x t r e m e i n t e r e s t i n b r i n g i n g a b o u t o n e ' s d o w n f a l l a n d h i s w i l l i n g n e s s t o r i s k s u b s t a n -t i a l damage t o h i s h o m e l a n d i n t h e p u r s u i t o f t h i s o b j e c -t i v e . The p o l i t i c a l c o n f l i c t , t h e n , i s a c t u a l l y f a r more i n t e n s e t h a n m i n i m a l i s t a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e s , a n d t h e d a n g e r o f e s c a l a t i o n i n t o a m i l i t a r y c o n f l i c t i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y g r e a t e r . S t a r t i n g f r o m t h e s e a s s u m p t i o n s , t h e m a x i m a l i s t s s t r e s s t h e n e e d t o l e a v e n o t h i n g t o c h a n c e , t o d e v e l o p f o r c e s w h i c h c a n d e a l w i t h as many e v e n t u a l i t i e s a s p o s s i b l e . T h e y a r g u e t h a t t h e t h r e a t o f p a r t i a l d e v a s t a t i o n may n o t c o n s t i t u t e a s u f f i c i e n t l y t e r r i b l e p r o s p e c t t o d e t e r a n a g g r e s s i v e enemy. A c o u n t e r v a l u e t h r e a t , t h e r e f o r e , must be t o t a l ; t h e enemy must be f a c e d w i t h t h e p r o s p e c t , n o t j u s t o f e x t e n s i v e damage, b u t o f o b l i t e r a t i o n . M o r e o v e r , r e l i a n c e e v e n on t h i s t h r e a t a l o n e i n v o l v e s u n a c c e p t a b l e r i s k s ; i t s t i l l makes a n a t i o n t o t a l l y d e p e n d e n t u pon t h e 12. p r e v e n t i o n o f w a r , y e t t h e p u n i s h m e n t i t h o l d s o u t i s n o t s u f f i c i e n t l y r a t i o n a l a n d m o d e r a t e , t o make i t a n a d e q u a t e g u a r a n t e e o f t h i s . The b e s t m e thod o f p r e v e n t i n g w a r and o f p r o m o t i n g o n e ' s own p o l i t i c a l i n t e r e s t s i n p e a c e t i m e , t h e a r g u m e n t c o n t i n u e s , i s t o p o s s e s s a w a r - w i n n i n g c a p a -b i l i t y . W i t h t h i s , t h e enemy w i l l t h e n be f a c e d w i t h t h e p r o s p e c t , n o t j u s t o f g r e a t s a c r i f i c e , b u t o f c e r t a i n d e f e a t , a n d h e n c e s a c r i f i c e i n v a i n , i f h e f o r c e s t h e i s s u e . I f t h e d e t e r r e n t n e v e r t h e l e s s f a i l s , s u c h a c a p a -b i l i t y w o u l d g i v e one t h e b e s t c h a n c e o f p r e s e r v i n g o n e ' s s o c i e t y a n d o f e m e r g i n g t r i u m p h a n t a t t h e c o n c l u s i o n o f h o s t i l i t i e s . The same s p i r i t a l s o p e r v a d e s m a x i m a l i s t p r e s -c r i p t i o n s f o r f o r c e p l a n n i n g . M a x i m a l i s t s c o n t e n d t h a t t h e f a v o u r a b l e s t a t e o f a f f a i r s d e s c r i b e d a b o v e i s o n l y p o s s i b l e i f e v e r y e f f o r t i s made t o e n s u r e t h a t o n e ' s s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s c a n c a r r y o u t t h e i r c o u n t e r v a l u e , a n d p a r t i c u l a r l y c o u n t e r f o r c e , m i s s i o n s u n d e r t h e w o r s t p l a u s i b l e c o n d i t i o n s . On t h e one h a n d , t h i s means t h a t , g i v e n t h e t e c h n i c a l p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t t h e enemy may b e a b l e t o r e d u c e o n e ' s s t r i k i n g p o w e r , and g i v e n t h e p o l i t i -c a l p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t h e may t r y t o do s o , i t i s o n l y p r u d e n t t o assume t h a t h e w i l l d e p l o y h i s f o r c e s a s q u i c k l y 13. a s h i s p r o d u c t i o n c a p a c i t y a l l o w s a n d t h a t t h e y 1 w i l l o p e r a t e p e r f e c t l y . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , i t i s e q u a l l y p r u d e n t t o assume t h a t o n e ' s own f o r c e s may p e r f o r m l e s s e f f i c i e n t l y t h a n e x p e c t e d , a n d t h a t t h e y may e v e n h a v e t o u n d e r g o a n enemy s u r p r i s e a t t a c k . The r e s u l t i n g c a l c u l u s o f f o r c e s r e q u i r e d i s o b v i o u s l y f a r more c o m p l e x t h a n t h e s i m p l e m i n i m a l i s t c a l c u l a t i o n s o f t h e number o f t a r g e t s a n d t h e number o f w a r h e a d s r e q u i r e d t o d e s t r o y them. M a x i m a l i s t s p l a c e f a r more e m p h a s i s o n t h e q u a l i t a t i v e p r e r e q u i s i t e s f o r a r e l i -a b l e n u c l e a r f o r c e - t h e o p e r a t i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f i t s weapons a n d t h e n a t u r e o f t h e s i t e s o n w h i c h t h e y a r e l o c a t e d - t h a n do t h e m i n i m a l i s t s . M e a s u r e s s u c h as " h a r d e n i n g " m i s s i l e s b y p l a c i n g them i n u n d e r g r o u n d s i l o s a r e deemed v i t a l i f t h e y a r e t o s u r v i v e o n t h e g r o u n d ; m e a s u r e s s u c h as d e v e l o p m e n t o f a w i d e v a r i e t y o f p e n e t r a -t i o n a i d s a r e n e c e s s a r y i f s u c h d e l i v e r y s y s t e m s a r e t o s u r v i v e enemy d e f e n s e s o n c e t h e y a r e l a u n c h e d . A s a com-p l e m e n t t o t h i s , m a x i m a l i s t s a l s o s e e s h e e r q u a l i t a t i v e e x p a n s i o n as a f u r t h e r means o f e n s u r i n g o n e ' s p r e - l a u n c h s u r v i v a l a n d p o s t - l a u n c h p e n e t r a t i o n . The p r i m a r y m i n i m a l i s t o b j e c t i o n t o t h i s p o s i t i o n , 14. o f c o u r s e , i s t h a t i t i s c o u n t e r p r o d u c t i v e , i n a s m u c h as i t w i l l p r e c i p i t a t e a d e s t a b i l i z i n g arms r a c e . M a x i m a l -i s t s r e s p o n d t h a t t h i s r a c e i s i n e v i t a b l e . The t e c h n i c a l and p o l i t i c a l i n c e n t i v e s f o r e n g a g i n g i n i t a r e s o s t r o n g t h a t t h e a d v e r s a r y w i l l do s o no m a t t e r w h a t one d o e s ; i n d e e d , i f h e s e e s one l a g g i n g b e h i n d , h e may a c t u a l l y a c c e l e r a t e h i s e f f o r t s . I n a d y n a m i c a nd t h r e a t e n i n g a t m o s p h e r e s u c h as t h i s , a n y r e s i d u a l u n c e r t a i n t i e s s i m p l y r e i n f o r c e t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t t h e o n l y h o p e f o r s a f e t y a n d s t a b i l i t y l i e s i n o u t s t r i p p i n g t h e o p p o n e n t . I I . AMERICAN STRATEGIC POLICY A. THE CONTENT OF AMERICAN NUCLEAR STRATEGY, 1954-1968 A s was n o t e d e a r l i e r , t h e s e a n a l y t i c a l c o n s t r u c -t i o n s i n t h e m s e l v e s p r o v i d e o n l y a d i s t o r t e d r e f l e c t i o n o f p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s , b u t t h e y do r e p r e s e n t t h e e x t r e m i t i e s o f a l o g i c a l c o n t i n u u m a l o n g w h i c h d e c i s i o n s , a n d m o d i f i c a -t i o n s o f t h o s e d e c i s i o n s , c a n be t r a c e d . The i n i t i a l p u r -p o s e o f t h i s s t u d y i s t o e x a m i n e t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f A m e r i c a n n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y a l o n g t h i s c o n t i n u u m b e t w e e n 1954 a n d 1968. 15. A s w i l l be s e e n i n c h a p t e r s I a n d V I , t h e r e was a g e n e r a l movement away f r o m n e o - m i n i m a l i s m i n t h e f i r s t e i g h t y e a r s a f t e r 1954. I n c h a p t e r I i t w i l l b e a r g u e d t h a t P r e s i d e n t E i s e n h o w e r ' s p o l i c y u n t i l 1958 was i n many ways one o f m i n i m a l d e t e r r e n c e ; h i s a d m i n i s t r a t i o n c o u n t e d on i t s c a p a b i l i t y f o r d e s t r o y i n g p a r t o f t h e S o v i e t u r b a n -i n d u s t r i a l c o m p l e x t o a c t a s a d e t e r r e n t , c o m p a r a t i v e l y l i t t l e was done t o s a f e g u a r d A m e r i c a n s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s a g a i n s t a p o s s i b l e s u r p r i s e a t t a c k , a n d o f f i c i a l e s t i m a t e s o f t h e f u t u r e t h r e a t s t o t h e s e f o r c e s w e r e r e l a t i v e l y l o w . I n h i s l a s t t h r e e y e a r s i n o f f i c e , h o w e v e r , E i s e n -h o w e r b e g a n t o m o d i f y h i s p o s i t i o n . On t h e one h a n d , t h i s i n v o l v e d g r e a t e r e f f o r t s t o e n s u r e w h a t w o u l d t o d a y be t e r m e d a s e c o n d - s t r i k e c o u n t e r v a l u e f o r c e , t h a t i s t o s a y a f o r c e s o c o n s t i t u t e d t h a t i t c o u l d s u r v i v e a s u r -p r i s e a t t a c k i n t s u f f i c i e n t s t r e n g t h t o w r e a k t h e d e s i r e d l e v e l o f damage o n enemy c i t i e s . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , p l a n n i n g was b e i n g b a s e d more and more on t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e enemy d e p l o y m e n t s w o u l d a c t u a l l y b e g r e a t e r t h a n e x p e c t e d . I t w i l l be a r g u e d i n c h a p t e r I I t h a t a n e v e n more s i g n i f i c a n t s i g n o f movement a p p e a r e d i n 1960.„ On t h e l e v e l o f d e c l a r a t o r y p o l i c y , i f n o t a c t u a l p o l i c y , 16. the Eisenhower administration had r e l u c t a n t l y modified i t s 9 . . . previous strategic objectives. This modification, given no consistent appelation by American decision-makers but termed "coercive deterrence" i n thi s study, was a middle ground between the previous countervalue strategy and a counterforce strategy. As outlined by Eisenhower's l a s t Secretary of Defense, and as progressively defined by Secretary McNamara and various other members of the Kennedy administration, t h i s strategy rested on the b e l i e f that i t was possible to l i m i t damage to the United States i n a nuclear war. This p o s s i b i l i t y , i t was hoped, might enable her to emerge from such a c o n f l i c t with some small gain over her opponents. Obviously, these propositions bore some resemblance to the maximalists' counterforce doctrine, but the resemblance was e s s e n t i a l l y s u p e r f i c i a l . Whereas the maximalists be-lieved that they could a c t u a l l y reduce damage to t h e i r country to an acceptable l e v e l i n a thermonuclear exchange, proponents of coercive deterrence harboured few such hopes. By the same token, while the former believed that a mean-i n g f u l v i c t o r y was possible i n such a c o n f l i c t , the l a t t e r believed i t highly probable that they could only achieve a 17. P y r r h i c v i c t o r y , a v i c t o r y o f t h e d e v a s t a t e d o v e r t h e a n n i h i l a t e d . C o n s e q u e n t l y , t h e c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e s c h o o l v i e w e d a damage, l i m i t i n g c a p a b i l i t y p r i m a r i l y i n t e r m s o f : 1 i t s v a l u e i n p e a c e t i m e r a t h e r t h a n w a r t i m e . C o n v i n c e d , l i k e t h e m i n i m a l i s t s c h o o l , t h a t b o t h s i d e s w o u l d s u f f e r t e r r i b l y i n a t h e r m o n u c l e a r c o n f l i c t , t h e y c o n c l u d e d t h a t d e t e r r e n c e o f s u c h a c o n f l i c t was w i t h o u t d o u b t t h e mos t c r u c i a l o b j e c t i v e a n d t h a t t h i s m ust n e c e s s a r i l y r e s t o n t h e u l t i m a t e t h r e a t o f c o u n t e r v a l u e r e t a l i a t i o n . A t t h e same t i m e , i t was c o n c e i v a b l e , f o r r e a s o n s d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r , t h a t t h e r e m i g h t be some d o u b t a b o u t A m e r i c a n w i l l i n g n e s s t o a c t u a l l y c a r r y o u t t h i s t h r e a t . " ^ A damage l i m i t i n g c a p a b i l i t y , i t was h o p e d , w o u l d c o u n t e r a c t t h e s e d o u b t s t o some e x t e n t b y m a r g i n a l l y r e d u c i n g t h e s a c r i f i c e s i n v o l v e d i n d o i n g s o . C l o s e l y l i n k e d t o t h i s , i n a s m u c h a s s u c h a c a p a b i l i t y w o u l d r e q u i r e s t r a t e g i c power s u b s t a n t i a l l y b e y o n d t h a t r e q u i r e d f o r p u r e l y c o u n t e r v a l u e r e t a l i a t i o n , i t m i g h t e v e n h a v e a p s y c h o l o g i c a l e f f e c t d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e t o t h e a c t u a l m i l i t a r y p o w e r w h i c h i t r e p r e s e n t e d . D e s p i t e t h e v a s t c h a n g e s o c c a s i o n e d b y t h e r m o n u c l e a r weapons, 18. v e s t i g e s o f t h e a t a v i s t i c b e l i e f t h a t a n a t i o n ' s power was d i r e c t l y p r o p o r t i o n a t e t o t h e number o f s t r a t e g i c weapons i t p o s s e s s e d s t i l l l i n g e r e d o n . C o n s e q u e n t l y , a v a g u e f e e l i n g t h a t h e was " i n f e r i o r " c o u l d d i s c o u r a g e t h e enemy f r o m c h a l l e n g i n g o n e ' s d e t e r r e n t , a n d c o u l d e v e n u n d e r m i n e h i s c o n f i d e n c e i n n o n - n u c l e a r a r e a s o f c o m p e t i -t i o n . By t h e same t o k e n , a m e a s u r e o f " s u p e r i o r i t y " -a c t u a l o r a p p a r e n t - m i g h t a l s o d i s c o u r a g e h i m f r o m s e e k -i n g a d e s t a b l i z i n g c o u n t e r f o r c e c a p a b i l i t y ; w h i l e " p a r i t y " o r " i n f e r i o r i t y " m i g h t e n c o u r a g e h i m t o s t r i v e f o r t h i s , " s u p e r i o r i t y " w o u l d o f f e r s o l i d p r o o f t h a t h e c o u l d n o t p r e v a i l i n t h e arms r a c e . H a l t i n g l y e m b r a c e d b y t h e E i s e n h o w e r a d m i n i s -t r a t i o n , t h i s d o c t r i n e f l o u r i s h e d f o r most o f t h e K e n n e d y y e a r s . I n c h a p t e r I I I i t w i l l be s e e n t h a t K e n n e d y a n d some o f h i s k e y l i e u t e n a n t s w e r e i n s t i n c t i v e l y a n d i n t e l -l e c t u a l l y p r e d i s p o s e d t o a more m a x i m a l i s t p o s i t i o n i n g e n e r a l and t o some f o r m o f c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e i n p a r -t i c u l a r . The f i r s t K e n n e d y b u d g e t , i t w i l l be a r g u e d i n c h a p t e r I V , was a d i s t i n c t , b u t s t i l l o n l y p a r t i a l l y d e f i n e d , a f f i r m a t i o n o f t h i s s p i r i t ; t h e d e f i n i t i o n o f u n -a c c e p t a b l e damage t o t h e S o v i e t U n i o n was r e v i s e d u p w a r d 19. a n d g r e a t e r e f f o r t s w e r e made t o p r o t e c t t h e A m e r i c a n c o u n t e r v a l u e c a p a b i l i t y , b u t t h e r e was no c l e a r p o l i c y c ommitment t o c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e . I n t h e b u d g e t f o r m u l a t e d i n t h e autumn o f 1 9 6 1 , h o w e v e r , t h e r e was a f i r m a n d u n e q u i v o c a l commitment t o t h i s s t r a t e g i c p r e s c r i p t i o n , a n d t h i s phenomenon w i l l be e x p l o r e d i n c h a p t e r V. As w i l l be s e e n i n c h a p t e r V I , t h i s c o mmitment was s o s t r o n g t h a t t h e K e n n e d y a d m i n i s -t r a t i o n a d d e d a r e f i n e m e n t t o t h i s d o c t r i n e i n 1962 i n t h e f o r m o f t h e " h o s t a g e c i t y " s t r a t e g y . T h i s l a s t d e v e l -opment, h o w e v e r , r e p r e s e n t e d t h e h i g h t i d e o f c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e , a n d i n d e e d , o f t h e n e o - m a x i m a l i s t s t r a i n i n A m e r i c a n n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y . I t w i l l be a r g u e d i n c h a p t e r V I I t h a t b e t w e e n 1963 a n d 1968 t h e r e was a r e v e r -s i o n t o s o m e t h i n g a p p r o x i m a t i n g t h e n e o - m i n i m a l i s m o f t h e l a s t t h r e e y e a r s o f t h e E i s e n h o w e r e r a ; n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y was b a s e d e s s e n t i a l l y o n a s e c o n d - s t r i k e c o u n t e r v a l u e c a p a b i l i t y , t h i s c a p a b i l i t y was d e s i g n e d t o d e s t r o y o n l y p a r t o f t h e S o v i e t u r b a n - i n d u s t r i a l c o m p l e x , a n d t h e g r e a t e r t h a n e x p e c t e d t h r e a t was d e f i n e d i n a p p r e c i a b l y more l i m i t e d t e r m s . I 20. B. DETERMINANTS OF AMERICAN NUCLEAR STRATEGY, 1954-1968 To a v e r y g r e a t e x t e n t , t h e r e f o r e , A m e r i c a n n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y b e t w e e n 1953 a n d 1968 was c y c l i c a l , e v o l v i n g f r o m a s u b s t a n t i a l l y m i n i m a l i s t p o s i t i o n t o n e o -m i n i m a l i s m , t o n e o - m a x i m a l i s m , a n d b a c k t o n e o - m i n i m a l i s m a g a i n . I n t e r e s t i n g a s t h i s d i s c o v e r y may b e , i t i s o n l y a s t a r t i n g p o i n t f o r a more i m p o r t a n t a n a l y s i s . The t r u l y s i g n i f i c a n t q u e s t i o n t o be e x a m i n e d i n t h i s s t u d y i s why t h i s c y c l e i n f a c t t o o k p l a c e . (a) A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY The m a x i m a l i s t - m i n i m a l i s t d i c h o t o m y p r o v i d e s o n l y a p a r t i a l a n d i m p e r f e c t f r a m e w o r k f o r a n s w e r i n g t h i s q u e s t i o n . O f n e c e s s i t y , t h i s m o d e l , l i k e a l l m o d e l s , assumes a k i n d o f s t r a t e g i c E v e r y m a n , a homo s t r a t e q i c u s who, l i k e homo e c o n o m i c u s o r homo p o l i t i c u s i s p a r t r e a l i t y , p a r t a b s t r a c t i o n . S t r a t e g i c man, l i k e h i s a n a l y t i -c a l b r e t h r e n , t h i n k s o n l y o f h i s d e s i g n a t e d f i e l d , n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y i n t h i s c a s e , a n d i s n o t moved b y a n y s u p p o s e d l y n o n - s t r a t e g i c f a c t o r s , h e t h i n k s l o n g a n d h a r d a b o u t , t h e s t a t e o f m i l i t a r y t e c h n o l o g y a n d t h e n a t u r e o f t h e enemy, b u t e c o n o m i c s , p e r s o n a l p r e d i s p o s i t i o n s , b u r e a u c r a t i c r i v a l r i e s , a n d t h e p r e s s u r e s o f p u b l i c o p i n i o n a r e s u p p o s e d t o h a v e l i t t l e , o r no, i n f l u e n c e . When t h e p r o d u c t s o f t h i s p o l i c y p r o c e s s , t h a t i s t o s a y s p e c i f i c d e c i s i o n s , a r e b e i n g e x a m i n e d , t h i s mocel i s r e a s o n a b l y u s e f u l f o r t h e s i m p l e r e a s o n t h a t d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s p r e s e n t t h e s e d e c i s i o n s i n t e r m s w h i c h a r e a m e n a b l e t o t h i s a n a l y s i s . The p a t h b y w h i c h t h e s e p o l i c i e s a r e a r r i v e d a t , t h e p o l i c y p r o c e s s , i s , h o w e v e r , somewhat more t o r t u o u s a n d c o m p l e x . F o r t h i s r e a s o n , a r a t h e r d i f f e r e n t f r a m e w o r k , i n c o r p o r a t i n g f o u r m a i n c l u s t e r s o f v a r i a b l e s , w i l l b e e m p l o y e d . (b) DETERMINANTS OF AMERICAN NUCLEAR STRATEGY,1954-1968. The f i r s t d e t e r m i n a n t , t e c h n i c a l p o s s i b i l i t i e s , h a s b e e n e x a m i n e d t o some e x t e n t i n t h e d i s c u s s i o n o f m a x i m a l i s m a n d m i n i m a l i s m , a n d i n c l u d e s a n y f a c t o r s p e r -t a i n i n g t o t h e p h y s i c a l a b i l i t y o f a n a t i o n t o e x p a n d o r u t i l i z e i t s s t r a t e g i c a r s e n a l . V a r i a b l e s s u c h a s t h e p r e s e n t a n d e x p e c t e d s t a t e o f t e c h n o l o g y a n d r e l a t i v e e c o n o m i c s t r e n g t h w o u l d come u n d e r t h i s h e a d i n g . A s e c o n d d e t e r m i n a n t , e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s , e n c o m p a s s e s a n y t r e n d o r e v e n t o c c u r r i n g o u t s i d e t h e b o r d e r s o f a n a t i o n . I n t h e c a s e o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , t h i s w o u l d i n v o l v e t h e p e r c e i v e d c o u r s e o f S o v i e t d i p l o m a c y , t h e p e r -c e i v e d m o t i v e s u n d e r l y i n g R u s s i a n s t r a t e g y , c u r r e n t s o f o p i n i o n i n N.A.T.O., a n d o t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n s o f t h i s n a t u r e . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h i s , s o c i e t a l f a c t o r s w i l l a l s o be d i s c u s s e d . R e p r e s e n t i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s p e c u l i a r t o a c e r t a i n s o c i e t y , t h e s e i n c l u d e h i s t o r i c a l t r a d i t i o n s , t h e s t a t e o f p u b l i c o p i n i o n a t a g i v e n t i m e , d o m i n a n t p r e s s u r e g r o u p s w i t h i n t h e s o c i e t y , a n d p o l i t i c a l a r r a n g e -ments s u c h a s a d e m o c r a t i c t w o - p a r t y s y s t e m a n d a d i v i s -i o n o f p o w e r s b e t w e e n a n e x e c u t i v e a n d a l e g i s l a t u r e . F i n a l l y , i d i o s y n c r a t i c f a c t o r s d e f i n e d i n a s t r i c t s e n s e a s a n y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o r b e l i e f s w h i c h d i s t i n g u i s h one d e c i s i o n - m a k e r f r o m a n o t h e r , w i l l b e c o n s i d e r e d . I n t h i s s t u d y , t h e t e r m " i d i o s y n c r a t i c f a c t o r " w i l l a a l s o be u s e d i n a somewhat b r o a d e r s e n s e , d e n o t i n g a c h a r a c t e r t y p e t y p i c a l o f one p a r t i c u l a r l e a d e r s h i p g r o u p a n d d i s t i n c t f r o m a n o t h e r . Some a t t e m p t w i l l be made, f o r e x a m p l e , t o d i s t i n g u i s h b e t w e e n t h e i n d i v i d u a l c h a r a c t e r i s t s o f K e n n e d y a n d McNamara, b u t t h e p r i m a r y f o c u s o f t h i s c a t e g o r y w i l l be on t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e K e n n e d y a d m i n i s t r a t i o n a s a w h o l e as d i s t i n c t f r o m t h e E i s e n h o w e r a d m i n i s t r a t i o n a s a w h o l e . I n summary, t h i s s t u d y w i l l o u t l i n e A m e r i c a n n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y i n i t s m o s t c r u c i a l y e a r s , 1954 t o 1968, an d w i l l p u t i t i n t h e c o n t e x t o f a n o n g o i n g d e b a t e o v e r i t s p r o p e r f o r m . A t t h e same t i m e , i t w i l l a l s o b e a r g u e d t h a t t h i s d e b a t e , a nd m o s t p a r t i c u l a r l y i t s o u t c o m e , was n o t s i m p l y t h e p r o d u c t o f a b s t r a c t s t r a t e g i c t h e o r i z i n g o r , as McNamara t e r m e d i t " t h e o l o g y . " " ' " ^ I n t h e l a s t a n a l y s i s , i t was t h e r e s u l t o f r e a s o n e d s t r a t e g i c t h e o r y m e e t i n g t h e demands o f , and b e i n g m o d i f i e d b y , t h e p r a c t i c a l r e a l i t i e s o u t l i n e d i n t h e p r e c e d i n g t y p o l o g y . 24. THE EVOLUTION OF AMERICAN NUCLEAR STRATEGY  UNDER EISENHOWER: MOVEMENT AWAY FROM NEO-MINIMALISM I N FORCE PLANNING, 1954 - 1961 A l t h o u g h e l e m e n t s o f t h e m a x i m a l i s t - m i n i m a l i s t c o n t r o v e r s y w e r e e v i d e n t i n some o f t h e s t r a t e g i c d e b a t e s w h i c h o c c u r r e d i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s d u r i n g t h e - f i r s t d e c a d e a f t e r W o r l d War I I , t h e y d i d n o t t a k e o n a w e l l d e f i n e d a n d p r a c t i c a l u r g e n c y u n t i l t h e m i d - 1 9 5 0 ' s . By t h i s t i m e , t h e h e i g h t e n e d S o v i e t - A m e r i c a n t e n s i o n s f o l l o w i n g t h e K o r e a n War, t h e a d d i t i o n o f s t r a t e g i c t h e r m o -n u c l e a r weapons t o t h e A m e r i c a n a r s e n a l , a n d s i g n s o f a s i m i l a r d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , f o r c e d t h e A m e r i c a n s t o r e c o g n i z e t h a t t h e y w e r e l i v i n g i n a new age A p a r t f r o m t h e e n s u i n g d e b a t e o v e r m a s s i v e r e t a l i a t i o n , t h e i r m o s t i m m e d i a t e c o n c e r n was f o r t h e s a f e t y o f t h e i r r e t a l i a t o r y f o r c e s . D e s p i t e t h e f a c t t h a t P r e s i d e n t E i s e n h o w e r ' s n e o - m i n i m a l i s t a p p r o a c h t o t h i s p r o b l e m was f a r f r o m u n r e a s o n a b l e , he was g r a d u a l l y c o m p e l l e d t o make c o n c e s s i o n s t o t h e c o n c e p t o f a g r e a t e r t h a n e x p e c t e d t h r e a t , i f n o t t h e w o r s t p l a u s i b l e one, a n d t o p u r s u e a s e c o n d - s t r i k e c a p a b i l i t y more r a p i d l y t h a n h e h i m s e l f t h o u g h t d e s i r a b l e . The c o m b i n a t i o n o f t e c h n i c a l , d o m e s t i a n d e x t e r n a l f a c t o r s w h i c h w r o u g h t t h i s was t o e x e r t a p o w e r f u l a n d l a s t i n g i n f l u e n c e o n s u b s e q u e n t A m e r i c a n n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y . I . THE "BOMBER GAP" A. AMERICAN NUCLEAR STRATEGY I N THE MID-1950's A t t h e b e g i n n i n g o f 1954 S e c r e t a r y o f S t a t e J o h n F o s t e r D u l l e s p r o c l a i m e d t h e d o c t r i n e o f " m a s s i v e r e t a l i a -t i o n , " a n d i n s o d o i n g h e s o u g h t t o c o n v i n c e b o t h A m e r i c a ' s f o e s a n d h e r a l l i e s t h a t h e r n e w l y a c q u i r e d t h e r m o n u c l e a r c a p a b i l i t y c o u l d c o m p e n s a t e f o r W e s t e r n d e f i c i e n c i e s i n c o n 3 v e n t i o n a l f o r c e s . F o r most i n t e n t s a n d p u r p o s e s , t h i s d o c t r i n e was r e n d e r e d o b s o l e t e o n l y a few months l a t e r , when t h e S o v i e t U n i o n d i s p l a y e d a i r c r a f t c a p a b l e o f d e l i v e r i n g t h e r m o n u c l e a r bombs t o t a r g e t s i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . H a v i n g l o s t t h e i r m o n o p o l y o n s t r a t e g i c t h e r m o n u c l e a r w e a pons, t h e A m e r i c a n s , i n c l u d i n g e v e n D u l l e s , h a d t o l o o k 4 t o more t r a d i t i o n a l ...modes o f l o c a l d e f e n s e . The p r o b l e m s a r i s i n g o u t o f t h e g r o w t h o f R u s s i a n s t r a t e g i c p o wer, how-e v e r , d i d n o t e n d h e r e . A m e r i c a n n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y i n t h e m i d - 1 9 5 0 ' s was n e o - m i n i m a l i s t i n s e v e r a l s e n s e s . A c c o r d i n g t o e s t i m a t e s made i n e a r l y 1955, c o n t i n e n t a l a i r d e f e n s e s c o u l d i n t e r -c e p t o n l y a b o u t t h i r t y p e r c e n t o f a n a t t a c k i n g f o r c e o f 5 b o m b e r s . A s i t was a l s o b e l i e v e d t h a t as f e w as one h u n d r e d t h e r m o n u c l e a r w a r h e a d s c o u l d d e s t r o y o n e - h a l f o f t h e i n d u s t r y a n d " t e n s o f m i l l i o n s " o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , t h i s meant t h a t t h e r e c o u l d be no r e a l 6 p r o t e c t i o n i n a t h e r m o n u c l e a r w a r . I n v i e w o f t h i s , t h e u l t i m a t e s a f e g u a r d f o r A m e r i c a n s e c u r i t y was t h e d e t e r r e n t o f f e r e d b y t h e e s t i m a t e d a b i l i t y o f t h e S t r a t e g i c A i r Command (S.A.C.) bombers t o d e s t r o y a b o u t o n e - t h i r d o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f t h e f i f t y o r s i x t y l a r g e s t R u s s i a n c i t i e s 7 a n d a l l o f t h e i n d u s t r y c o n c e n t r a t e d i n t h o s e c i t i e s . T h i s l a t t e r e s t i m a t e , h o w e v e r , was p r e d i c a t e d o n t h e assump-t i o n t h a t A m e r i c a n s t r i k i n g power c o u l d n o t be i m p a i r e d b y an enemy s u r p r i s e a t t a c k . S u c h a n a s s u m p t i o n was f a r f r o m u n r e a s o n a b l e , a s e a r l y w a r n i n g s t a t i o n s c o u l d g e n e r a l l y be r e l i e d u p o n t o g i v e S.A.C. s u f f i c i e n t t i m e t o l a u n c h 8 i t s . f o r c e s b e f o r e t h e y c o u l d be d e s t r o y e d o n t h e g r o u n d . N e v e r t h e l e s s , i t was s t i l l t h e o r e t i c a l l y p o s s i b l e t h a t t h e s e s t a t i o n s m i g h t m a l f u n c t i o n o r t h a t t h e enemy m i g h t f i n d a way o f a t l e a s t p a r t i a l l y c i r c u m v e n t i n g them. I n e i t h e r e v e n t , S.A.C. c o u l d h a v e b e e n d e c i m a t e d . A number o f c i v i l i a n a n a l y s t s i n t h e RAND C o r -p o r a t i o n , m o s t n o t a b l y A l b e r t W o h l s t e t t e r , h a d t r i e d t o c o n v i n c e t h e g o v e r n m e n t o f t h e n e c e s s i t y f o r g r e a t e r 9 e f f o r t s t o meet t h i s t h e o r e t i c a l d a n g e r . The e s s e n c e o f t h e i r a r g u m e n t was t h a t , c o n t r a r y t o c u r r e n t a s s u m p t i o n s , " D e t e r r e n c e . . . i s n o t a u t o m a t i c . " A l t h o u g h i t h a d b e e n assumed t h a t t h e " b a l a n c e o f t e r r o r " was r e l a t i v e l y s t a b l e b e c a u s e m u t u a l a n n i h i l a t i o n was i n e v i t a b l e i n a n u c l e a r w a r , t h e RAND a n a l y s t s c o n t e n d e d t h a t t h e b a l a n c e was a c t u a l l y v e r y d e l i c a t e . T h u s , t h e y p o i n t e d o u t t h a t t h e v u l n e r a b i l i t y o f A m e r i c a n bombers w h i l e s t i l l o n t h e g r o u n d a n d t h e i r c o n c e n t r a t i o n o n a r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l number o f b a s e s i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a n d o v e r s e a s made i t p o s s i b l e t h a t t h e S o v i e t s m i g h t be a b l e t o remove t h e t h r e a t t o t h e m s e l v e s b y s t r i k i n g f i r s t w i t h e v e n a m o d e s t number o f b o m b e r s . M o r e o v e r , t h i s s i t u a t i o n w o u l d be e x a c e r b a t e d b y t h e d y n a m i s m o f modern weapons t e c h n o l o g y ; m i s s i l e s w o u l d b e e v e n b e t t e r s u i t e d t o s u r p r i s e a t t a c k t h a n b o m b e r s . I f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s was t o p o s s e s s a t r u l y e f f e c t i v e d e t e r r e n t , t h e a r g u m e n t c o n t i n u e d , h e r p r e s e n t and f u t u r e r e t a l i a t o r y f o r c e s h a d t o b e a b l e t o s u r v i v e 28. s u c h a n a t t a c k i n s u f f i c i e n t numbers t o i n f l i c t u n a c c e p t a b l e damage o n t h e enemy, t h a t i s t o s a y s h e h a d t o p o s s e s s a s e c o n d - s t r i k e c a p a b i l i t y . N u m e r i c a l s t r e n g t h was i m p o r t a n t i n t h i s r e g a r d , o f c o u r s e , b u t i t was e v e n more i m p o r t a n t t h a t t h e weapons d e p l o y e d h a v e o p e r a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s w h i c h w o u l d m a x i m i z e t h e i r i n v u l n e r a b i l i t y . Q u a l i t a t i v e , r a t h e r t h a n p u r e l y q u a n t i t a t i v e , i m p r o v e m e n t s w e r e t h e r e f o r e t h e e s s e n t i a l p r e r e q u i s i t e f o r m a k i n g t h e " d e l i c a t e b a l a n c e o f t e r r o r " l e s s d e l i c a t e . B. ORIGIN AND S I G N I F I C A N C E OF THE "BOMBER GAP" P r e s i d e n t E i s e n h o w e r 1 s " r e a c t i o n t o t h e "bomber gap," n o n e t h e l e s s , d e m o n s t r a t e d t h a t h e was s t i l l f a r f r o m r e c e p t i v e t o t h e s e a r g u m e n t s . On May Day 1955, t h e K r e m l i n h a d d i s p l a y e d u n e x p e c t e d l y l a r g e numbers o f new l o n g - r a n g e a i r c r a f t . C o n f r o n t e d b y t h i s , a n d a c u t e l y s e n s i t i v e t o a n y p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t t h e A m e r i c a n d e t e r r e n t m i g h t be e n d a n g e r e d , many A i r F o r c e o f f i c e r s a ssumed t h e w o r s t , n a m e l y a c o n c e r t e d S o v i e t b i d f o r a c o u n t e r f o r c e c a p a -b i l i t y . T h r o u g h o u t t h e f o l l o w i n g y e a r , men s u c h a s G e n e r a l N a t h a n F. T w i n i n g , t h e A i r F o r c e C h i e f o f S t a f f , a n d G e n e r a l C u r t i s E. L e May, t h e S.A.C. commander, w a r n e d o f i m p e n d i n g d i s a s t e r i f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a d h e r e d t o h e r 2 9 . c u r r e n t d e p l o y m e n t s c h e d u l e f o r l o n g - r a n g e B-52 b o m b e r s . G e n e r a l L e May w a r n e d t h a t b y 1958 t h e S o v i e t s w o u l d be " s t r o n g e r i n l o n g - r a n g e a i r p o w e r t h a n we a r e , " a n d b y 1959 t h e y c o u l d p o s s e s s t w i c e a s many i n t e r c o n t i n e n -t a l bombers a s t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . U n d e r t h e s e l a t t e r c o n -d i t i o n s , t h e q u a l i t a t i v e w e a k n e s s e s i n A m e r i c a n r e t a l i a t o r y f o r c e s t o w h i c h t h e RAND a n a l y s t s h a d p o i n t e d m i g h t l e a d t o d i s a s t e r : I f e v e r y t h i n g w e n t i n h i s ( t h e o p p o n e n t ' s ) f a v o u r , a n d we made a l l t h e m i s t a k e s p o s s i b l e t o make - I m i g h t a d d I d o n ' t t h i n k t h i s i s p o s s i b l e ( s i c ) t o h a p p e n - b u t i f i t d i d h a p p e n , we o n l y h a v e t h i r t y -some b a s e s , a n d I t h i n k t h a t t h e y c o u l d be h i t ; a n d i n t h a t c a s e , we w o u l d h a v e p r a c t i c a l l y n o t h i n g l e f t t o do a n y r e t a l i a t i n g w i t h . A s a r e s u l t , L e May a r g u e d , t h e enemy "may f e e l t h a t h e 13 s h o u l d a t t a c k " w h i l e h e e n j o y e d t h i s m o m entary a d v a n t a g e . The c r e d i b i l i t y o f t h e d e t e r r e n t , t h e n , m i g h t be e n d a n g e r e d b e c a u s e t h e p h y s i c a l c a p a c i t y o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t o r e -t a l i a t e m i g h t be c a l l e d i n t o q u e s t i o n . The A d m i n i s t r a t i o n s h a r e d some o f t h i s c o n c e r n , a f a c t m a n i f e s t i n S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e C h a r l e s W i l s o n ' s a d m i s s i o n t h a t t h e U.S.S.R. was o u t s t r i p p i n g h i s c o u n t r y 14 i n p r o d u c t i o n o f i n t e r c o n t i n e n t a l b o m b e r s . I t seems 30. r e a s o n a b l e t o c o n c l u d e , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t i t w o u l d h a v e e v e n t u a l l y t a k e n s t e p s t o meet t h i s t h r e a t . A t t h e same t i m e , i t p r o b a b l y w o u l d n o t h a v e a c t e d as s o o n a s i t d i d , a n d p e r h a p s n o t e v e n o n t h e s c a l e i t d i d , h a d t h e d e c i s i o n b e e n i n i t s h a n d s a l o n e ; E i s e n h o w e r a n d h i s c o l l e a g u e s h a d a p a s s i o n f o r economy i n d e f e n s e s p e n d i n g , t h e y w e r e g e n e r a l l y r e l u c t a n t t o t a k e a c t i o n u n l e s s t h e y b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e r e was a n i m m e d i a t e a n d o v e r w h e l m i n g n e e d f o r i t , a n d t h e i r s t a t e m e n t s o n t h e "bomber gap" h a r d l y r e f l e c t e d 15 s u c h a s e n s e o f u r g e n c y . The a p p r o a c h o f t h e 1956 c o n -g r e s s i o n a l a n d p r e s i d e n t i a l e l e c t i o n s , h o w e v e r , l e n t t h e s u p p o r t o f d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c s t o t h e A i r F o r c e w a r n i n g s . W i t h p r o m i n e n t D e m o c r a t s s u c h a s S t u a r t S y m i n g t o n , J o h n F. K e n n e d y a n d H e n r y J a c k s o n u s i n g t h e s e w a r n i n g s a s a b a s i s f o r t h e i r c h a r g e s t h a t t h e "bomber gap" was t h e r e s u l t o f R e p u b l i c a n c o m p l a c e n c e a n d " a r b i t r a r y f i s c a l c e i l i n g s , " i t w o u l d h a v e b e e n p o l i t i c a l madness n o t t o h a v e g i v e n a t 16 l e a s t t h e a p p e a r a n c e o f c l o s i n g t h e "gap." I n c o n s e q u e n c e , t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n d e c i d e d t o e x p a n d i t s p r o g r a m f o r c o n t i n e n t a l a i r d e f e n s e . More s i g n i -f i c a n t l y , i t a l s o d e c i d e d t o a c c e l e r a t e p r o d u c t i o n o f B - 5 2 ' s , i n c r e a s e t h e s t e n g t h o f e a c h B-52 w i n g f r o m t h i r t y 3 1 . t o f o r t y - f i v e a i r c r a f t , a n d b u i l d t h e A i r F o r c e up f r o m 17 131 t o 137 w i n g s . S u c h a c t i o n s , o f c o u r s e , g a v e t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s some a d d i t i o n a l i n s u r a n c e a g a i n s t s u r p r i s e a t t a c k , b u t t h e y d i d n o t s o l v e t h e p r o b l e m w h i c h t h e RAND a n a l y s t s h a d s t r e s s e d . No m a t t e r how much t h e y m i g h t be s t r e n g t h e n e d , t h e a n t i - a i r c r a f t d e f e n s e s c o u l d n o t o f f e r r e l i a b l e . p r o t e c t i o n t o v u l n e r a b l e " s o f t " b a s e s , a n d , i m -p o r t a n t a s i t may h a v e b e e n , t h e number o f A m e r i c a n bombers c o m p a r e d t o t h e number o f S o v i e t bombers was a h i g h l y i m -p e r f e c t i n d i c a t o r o f a c t u a l s t r a t e g i c i n v u l n e r a b i l i t y . E v e n Le May, d e s p i t e a t e n d e n c y t o t a k e a n o v e r l y q u a n t i t a t i v e a p p r o a c h a t t i m e s , h a d r e c o g n i z e d t h e c r u c i a l s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e r a t i o o f S o v i e t a i r c r a f t t o A m e r i c a n b a s e s and t h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t t h e S.A.C. f o r c e s w o u l d be o n t h e g r o u n d when t h e a t t a c k e r s a r r i v e d . M e a s u r e s s u c h a s maximum d i s p e r s a l o f S.A.C. a n d p l a c e m e n t o f a t l e a s t p a r t o f i t s f o r c e s o n g r o u n d a l e r t , o r b e t t e r y e t , a i r b o r n e a l e r t , w e r e t h e r e f o r e e s s e n t i a l f o r d e a l i n g w i t h a c o u n t e r -f o r c e t h r e a t . N e v e r t h e l e s s , a p a r t f r o m a c k n o w l e d g i n g t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s c o u l d n o t r e l y o n h e r v u l n e r a b l e o v e r s e a s b a s e s f o r e v e r , t h e P r e s i d e n t f a i l e d t o t a k e a n y s i g n i f i c a n t a c t i o n i n t h e s e a r e a s . I n s h o r t , E i s e n h o w e r was b e g i n n i n g , a l b e i t s l o w l y , t o t a k e t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a c o u n t e r f o r c e t h r e a t i n t o a c c o u n t i n h i s f o r c e p l a n n i n g . H i s f a i l u r e t o go b e y o n d a n e s s e n t i a l l y q u a n t i t a t i v e a p p r o a c h t o t h e p r o b l e m , how-e v e r , i n d i c a t e d h i s p e r s i s t e n t b e l i e f t h a t t h e d a n g e r r e -m a i n e d l a r g e l y n e g l i g i b l e . I n 1957 a s e r i e s o f e v e n t s o c c u r r e d w h i c h u l t i m a t e l y c a u s e d h i m t o t a k e t h e s e p r o b l e m s f a r more s e r i o u s l y . I I . THE " M I S S I L E GAP" The U n i t e d S t a t e s h a d h a d a m i s s i l e p r o g r a m o f s o r t s e v e r s i n c e t h e end o f W o r l d War I I , b u t i t s p a c e h a d b e e n s p o r a d i c , due t o complacence- a b o u t A m e r i c a n t e c h n o -l o g i c a l s u p e r i o r i t y o v e r t h e U.S.S.R. and t o t h e m a s s i v e l c d i f f i c u l t i e s i n v o l v e d i n d e v e l o p i n g a s e r v i c e a b l e m i s s i l e . By 1953, .though, A m e r i c a n i n t e l l i g e n c e i n d i c a t e d t h a t Moscow was c o m m i t t e d t o a l a r g e - s c a l e e f f o r t t o d e v e l o p s u c h a weapon. F u r t h e r m o r e , i n F e b r u a r y , 1954 a g r o u p o f t e c h n i c a l e x p e r t s h e a d e d b y D r . J o h n v o n Neumann r e p o r t e d t h a t , w i t h t h e g r e a t e r y i e l d - t o - w e i g h t r a t i o made p o s s i b l e b y t h e h y d r o g e n bomb, t h e c r u c i a l p r o b l e m o f d e v e l o p i n g a r e l a t i v e l y l i g h t w a r h e a d f o r a m i s s i l e c o u l d be s o l v e d . A s a r e s u l t , t h e v o n Neumann C o m m i t t e e c o m b i n e d a w a r n i n g t h a t t h e U.S.S.R. was s e v e r a l y e a r s a h e a d i n m i s s i l e r y w i t h a r e c o m m e n d a t i o n t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a s s i g n t h e 20 " h i g h e s t n a t i o n a l p r i o r i t y " t o t h i s f i e l d . I n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h i s , E i s e n h o w e r d e c i d e d t o d e v e l o p a n i n t e r c o n t i n e n t a l b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e ( I . C . B . M . ) , b u t t h e s c a l e o f h i s e f f o r t s i n i t i a l l y f e l l f a r s h o r t o f t h a t e n v i s a g e d b y t h i s c o m m i t t e e ; i n d e e d , i n t h e summer o f 1956 W i l s o n a c t u a l l y r e d u c e d t h e f u n d s a l l o c a t e d f o r t h i s p r o g r a m a s p a r t o f h i s c a m p a i g n t o o f f s e t t h e c u r r e n t i n c r e a s e s i n e x p e n d i t u r e s o n b o m b e r s . D e s p i t e e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e S o v i e t U n i o n was a f a r more f o r m i d a b l e o p p o n e n t t h a n h a d h i t h e r t o b e e n assumed, t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n a p p a r -e n t l y b e l i e v e d t h a t e v e n t h e n i t c o u l d m a i n t a i n a s i g n i f i c -a n t l e a d i n t h e r a c e t o g a i n a n I.C.B.M. c a p a b i l i t y . A l t h o u g h s h e h a d l o s t h e r n u c l e a r m o n o p o l y , t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s c o u l d s t i l l m a i n t a i n a s i g n i f i c a n t d e g r e e o f q u a l i t a t i v e s u p e r i o r i t y - o r a t l e a s t s o i t was h o p e d . On A u g u s t 26, 1957, h o w e v e r , t h e S o v i e t s a n n o u n c e d i t h a t t h e y h a d s u c c e s s f u l l y t e s t f i r e d an I.C.B.M. A l t h o u g h t h i s c l a i m was i n i t i a l l y d i s m i s s e d b y many i n t h e Wes t , t h e 34. l a u n c h i n g o f S p u t n i k o n O c t o b e r 4, and o f a s e c o n d s a t e l l i t e 21 a month l a t e r , l e f t l i t t l e room f o r s u c h d o u b t s . A s E i s e n h o w e r h i m s e l f s u b s e q u e n t l y a d m i t t e d , "The s i z e o f t h e t h r u s t r e q u i r e d t o p r o p e l a s a t e l l i t e o f t h i s w e i g h t came 22 . . . as a d i s t i n c t s u r p r i s e t o u s . " W i t h t h e A m e r i c a n m i s s i l e p r o g r a m s t i l l , b e s e t b y s e r i o u s d i f f i c u l t i e s a n d u n c e r t a i n t i e s , w i t h no p r o v i s i o n f o r e a r l y w a r n i n g o f a m i s s i l e a t t a c k , a n d w i t h t h e c a p a c i t y o f a n i n t e r c o n t i n e n t a l m i s s i l e t o r e a c h i t s t a r g e t w i t h i n t h i r t y m i n t e s , t h e f u t u r e o b v i o u s l y 23 h e l d a n u n p r e c e d e n t e d t h r e a t o f s u r p r i s e a t t a c k . The p r i n c i p a l q u e s t i o n s t h e n f a c i n g t h e P r e s i d e n t w e r e t h e s p e e d w i t h w h i c h t h i s t h r e a t w o u l d emerge, i t s p r e c i s e m a g n i t u d e , a n d t h e c o u n t e r m e a s u r e s t o be a d o p t e d . A n s w e r s w e r e n o t l o n g i n c o m i n g . On November 7, 1957 h e r e c e i v e d a r e p o r t o n t h e c o m i n g p e r i l f r o m t h e G a i t h e r C o m m i t t e e , a b o d y o f e x p e r t s w h i c h h a d o r i g i n a l l y b e e n a p p o i n t e d t o s t u d y A m e r i c a n c a p a b i l i t i e s f o r a c t i v e a n d p a s s i v e d e f e n s e b u t w h i c h e v e n t u a l l y e x a m i n e d t h e w h o l e 1 24 s p e c t r u m o f s t r a t e g i c q u e s t i o n s . D r a w i n g o n t h e e a r l i e r RAND a n a l y s i s , i t w a r n e d t h a t t h e g r e a t e s t t h r e a t t o t h e s e c u r i t y o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s was t h e v u l n e r a b i l i t y o f h e r s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s . W i t h S.A.C. bombers e x p o s e d o n s o f t b a s e s a n d d i s t r i b u t e d o v e r o n l y a few a i r f i e l d s , t h i s t h r e a t was g r a v e e v e n i n a n age when bombers w e r e t h e o n l y d e l i v e r y s y s t e m s a v a i l a b l e t o e i t h e r s i d e . I t w o u l d i n c r e a s e i m -m e a s u r a b l y , t h o u g h , a s t h e U.S.S.R. a p p l i e d h e r e v e r i n -c r e a s i n g e c o n o m i c r e s o u r c e s t o r a p i d e x p l o i t a t i o n o f h e r p r e s e n t t e c h n o l o g i c a l a d v a n t a g e ; i n d e e d , s h e c o u l d h a v e as many as one h u n d r e d I.C.B.M.s i n 1959. To meet t h e s e d a n g e r s , t h e r e p o r t c o n t i n u e d , t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s m u s t r a p i d l y e x p a n d h e r d e f e n s e e f f o r t s i n o r d e r t o i n s u r e a s e c o n d - s t r i k e c a p a b i l i t y . I n t h e s h o r t r u n , t h i s meant i m m e d i a t e d i s p e r s i o n o f t h e A m e r i c a n bombers a n d p u t t i n g a l a r g e p e r c e n t a g e o f them on a l e r t . I n t h e l o n g r u n , i t meant s u b s t a n t i a l a c c e l e r a t i o n o f t h e A m e r i c a n I.C.B.M. p r o g r a m a n d c o n c e n t r a t i o n o n r e l a t i v e l y i n v u l n e r a b l e s e c o n d - g e n e r a t i o n m i s s i l e s r a t h e r t h a n v u l n e r a b l e f i r s t -g e n e r a t i o n o n e s . E i s e n h o w e r d i d n o t e n t i r e l y s h a r e t h e G a i t h e r Com-m i t t e e 1 s s e n s e o f u r g e n c y . H a s t y a d o p t i o n o f " c r a s h " p r o g r a m s , a f t e r a l l , m i g h t w a s t e s c a r c e r e s o u r c e s a t a t i m e when h i s c o n s t a n t p a s s i o n f o r a b a l a n c e d b u d g e t was b e i n g r e i n f o r c e d b y h i s c h i e f e c o n o m i c a d v i s e r s ' w a r n i n g s 25 o f an i m p e n d i n g r e c e s s i o n . Y e t more i m p o r t a n t , w h i l e he c o n c e d e d t h a t S p u t n i k p r o v e d t h a t t h e S o v i e t s h a d d e v e l o p e d s u f f i c i e n t t h r u s t f o r a n I.C.B.M., he p o i n t e d o u t t h a t t h i s d i d n o t n e c e s s a r i l y mean t h a t t h e y h a d made c o m p a r a b l e p r o g r e s s o n a number o f o t h e r f o r m i d a b l e p r o b l e m s , s u c h a s t h o s e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h r e - e n t r y o f a w a r h e a d i n t o t h e a t m o s -26 . p h e r e . I t was b y no means c e r t a i n , t h e n , t h a t Moscow a c t u a l l y p o s s e s s e d a f u l l y o p e r a t i o n a l I.C.B.M. A l r e a d y s k e p t i c a l a b o u t t h e G a i t h e r C o m m i t t e e ' s a s s e s s m e n t o f t h e q u a l i t a t i v e a d v a n c e s i n enemy s t r a t e g i c p o w e r , he was n a t u r a l l y d u b i o u s a b o u t i t s " h y p o t h e t i c a l " p r o j e c t i o n s o n 27 t h e S o v i e t r a t e o f d e p l o y m e n t . A t t h e same t i m e , h e c o u l d n o t a f f o r d t o b a s e h i s p l a n s e n t i r e l y o n s u c h a n o p t i m i s t i c a n a l y s i s . A c a p a -b i l i t y f o r i n f l i c t i n g u n a c c e p t a b l e damage o n t h e U.S.S.R. was c r u c i a l f o r A m e r i c a n s e c u r i t y , a n d i t s p r e s e r v a t i o n was t h e r e f o r e v i t a l . The p r e c i s e m a g n i t u d e a n d n a t u r e o f t h i s t h r e a t , h o w e v e r , c o u l d n o t be d e f i n e d w i t h c e r t a i n t y . T h i s p r o b l e m was p a r t i c u l a r l y s e r i o u s i n t h e r e a l m o f r e -s e a r c h a n d d e v e l o p m e n t f o r two m a i n r e a s o n s . - I n t e l l i g e n c e o n enemy e f f o r t s i n t h i s a r e a was o f t e n d i f f i c u l t , i f n o t i m p o s s i b l e , u n t i l t h e y w e r e w e l l a d v a n c e d , w h i l e t h e r e c e n t a n d s u r p r i s i n g R u s s i a n a d v a n c e i n m i s s i l e r y was a c o n s t a n t 37. r e m i n d e r o f t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t t h e s e e f f o r t s m i g h t be u n d e r e s t i m a t e d . F u r t h e r m o r e , t i m e l y c o m p e n s a t o r y a c t i o n m i g h t n o t be p o s s i b l e i f t h e u n d e r e s t i m a t i o n was t o o g r e a t ; t h e l e a d t i m e f o r m o dern weapons, t h e i n t e r v a l b e -t w e e n i n i t i a t i o n o f r e s e a r c h a n d d e v e l o p m e n t a n d a c t u a l 28 d e p l o y m e n t , was o f t e n s e v e r a l y e a r s . I n v i e w o f t h i s , i t was o n l y p r u d e n t t o a l l o w a s u b s t a n t i a l m a r g i n f o r e r r o r b y b a s i n g r e s e a r c h a n d d e v e l o p m e n t p r o g r a m s , i f n o t o n some p h a n t a s m a g o r i a l " w o r s t p l a u s i b l e c a s e , " t h e n a t l e a s t o n t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e i r enemy c o u n t e r p a r t s w e r e p r o g r e s s i n g e v e n more r a p i d l y a n d s u c c e s s f u l l y t h a n was a c t u a l l y a n t i c i p a t e d . The p r o b l e m s o f d e p l o y i n g o p e r a t i o n a l weapons a l s o c a l l e d f o r a s s u m p t i o n o f a g r e a t e r t h a n e x p e c t e d t h r e a t , t h o u g h t o a f a r l e s s e r e x t e n t t h a n was t r u e o f r e s e a r c h a n d d e v e l o p m e n t . Once a weapon h a d b e e n d e v e l o p e d a n d f a c i l i t i e s e s t a b l i s h e d f o r i t s p r o d u c t i o n , i t s r a t e o f d e p l o y m e n t c o u l d i n t h e o r y be g e a r e d t o i n t e l l i g e n c e o n t h e enemy's a c t u a l d e p l o y m e n t s ; s h o u l d a s s e s s m e n t s o f t h e f u t u r e t h r e a t e x t r a p o l a t e d f r o m t h i s p r o v e i n a c c u r a t e , t h e r e l a t i v e l y s h o r t t i m e n e e d e d f o r i n c r e a s e d p r o d u c t i o n p e r m i t t e d t i m e l y a d j u s t m e n t s i n d e p l o y m e n t s c h e d u l e s . Com-38. p l e t e a nd r e l i a b l e i n t e l l i g e n c e o n t h e s t a t i o n i n g o f enemy-f o r c e s , n e v e r t h e l e s s , was i n d i s p e n s i b l e f o r t h i s a n d , i n t h e l a t e 1 950's a n d v e r y e a r l y 1 9 6 0 ' s , t h i s p r e r e q u i s i t e was n o t f u l f i l l e d e n t i r e l y . W h i l e d a t a f r o m U-2 r e c o n n a i s -s a n c e f l i g h t s seemed t o b e g e n e r a l l y s a t i s f a c t o r y , t h e U-2 c o u l d n o t r a n g e o v e r a l l o f t h e S o v i e t f a r n o r t h , a n d t h e 29 d e n s e c l o u d o v e r t h a t a r e a h a m p e r e d p h o t o g r a p h y . I t was n e c e s s a r y , t h e n , t o make a t l e a s t some p r o v i s i o n f o r t h e p o s s i b i l i t y , o f more e x t e n s i v e d e p l o y m e n t s t h a n e x p e c t e d . M o r e o v e r , d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c a l p r e s s u r e s o n c e a g a i n r e i n f o r c e d a n d , t o a c e r t a i n d e g r e e , e x t e n d e d t h e d i c t a t e s o f s t r a t e g i c p r u d e n c e . L i n g e r i n g j f e a r s t h a t t h e A d m i n i s -t r a t i o n was n o t d o i n g e n o u g h t o c l o s e t h e "bomber gap" w e r e m a n i f e s t i n a c t i o n s s u c h as t h e S e n a t e ' s a d d i t i o n o f a l m o s t one b i l l i o n d o l l a r s t o t h e A i r F o r c e b u d g e t i n J u n e , 1956 30 d e s p i t e E i s e n h o w e r ' s o b j e c t i o n s . A y e a r l a t e r , w h i l e s t i l l i n t h e t h r o e s o f t h e d e b a t e o v e r t h i s "gap," t h e A m e r i c a n p e o p l e f o u n d t h e m s e l v e s c o n f r o n t e d b y t h e p r o s p e c t o f a new a n d more t e r r i b l e " m i s s i l e gap" i n w h i c h t h e enemy l e a d m i g h t be q u a l i t a t i v e as w e l l a s q u a n t i t a t i v e . The r e s u l t was w h a t E i s e n h o w e r t e r m e d a "wave o f n e a r - h y s t e r i a " a n d 31 t h e "most s u r p r i s i n g " c o n s e q u e n c e o f S p u t n i k . I n a p o l l t a k e n o n November 24, 1957, f i f t y - t h r e e p e r c e n t o f t h e r e s -p o n d e n t s b e l i e v e d t h a t " t h e r e i s a n e e d t o t a k e a l o o k a t o u r d e f e n s e p o l i c i e s , " a n d o n l y t w e n t y - s i x p e r c e n t e x p r e s s e d 32 a p p r o v a l o f t h e s e p o l i c i e s . P a r t l y as a r e f l e c t i o n o f t h i s , p a r t l y as a n a t t e m p t t o d e r i v e p a r t i s a n a d v a n t a g e f r o m i t , C o n g r e s s o p e n e d a number o f h e a r i n g s o n t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e R u s s i a n a c h i e v e m e n t . T h e s e h e a r i n g s , t h e m o s t famous a n d i n f l u e n t i a l o f w h i c h w e r e t h o s e h e l d b y t h e n M a j o r i t y L e a d e r L y n d o n J o h n s o n ' s S e n a t e I n v e s t i g a t i n g S u b c o m m i t t e e , p r o m i s e d t o m a g n i f y c u r r e n t p u b l i c a p p r e h e n s i o n u n l e s s t h e g o v e r n m e n t e x p a n d e d i t s e f f o r t s . P r e s i d e n t E i s e n h o w e r ' s f i r s t S t a t e o f t h e U n i o n M e s s a g e a f t e r S p u t n i k was t h e p r o d u c t o f t h e s e f a c t o r s . E i s e n h o w e r , t o b e . s u r e , h a d p r o c l a i m e d t h a t h i s c o u n t r y u n d e n i a b l y p o s s e s s e d a s e c o n d - s t r i k e c a p a b i l i t y a l r e a d y : E v e n i f we assume a s u r p r i s e a t t a c k o n o u r b a s e s , w i t h a m a r k e d r e d u c t i o n i n o u r s t r i k i n g p o w e r , o u r bombers w o u l d i m m e d i a t e l y be o n t h e i r way i n s u f f i c i e n t s t r e n g t h t o a c c o m p l i s h t h i s m i s s i o n o f r e t a l i a t i o n . N e v e r t h e l e s s , h e s i m u l t a n e o u s l y a n n o u n c e d a number o f m e a s u r e s d e s i g n e d t o e n h a n c e t h e i n v u l n e r a b i l i t y o f A m e r i c a n r e t a l i a t o r y f o r c e s . A s much i n b e l a t e d r e s p o n s e t o t h e bomber t h r e a t as i n r e s p o n s e t o t h e m i s s i l e t h r e a t , S.A.C. 4 0 . was t o be d i s p e r s e d and p l a c e d o n f i f t e e n - m i n u t e g r o u n d a l e r t . T h e s e s t e p s , c o m b i n e d w i t h t h e e v e n t u a l s t a t i o n i n g o f I.R.B.M.s i n T u r k e y a n d I t a l y , w o u l d s e r v e a s s t o p g a p s t o g u a r d a g a i n s t t h e e x i s t i n g enemy t h r e a t , o r p e r h a p s e v e n t o s t a y s l i g h t l y a h e a d o f i t . I n t h e m e a n t i m e , t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s w o u l d s e e k a more l o n g - t e r m a n d p e r m a n e n t s o l u t i o n t h r o u g h a c c e l e r a t i o n o f h e r w o r k on I.C.B.Ms, P o l a r i s s u b m a r i n e l a u n c h e d b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e s (S.E.B.M.s) a n d o n e a r l y w a r n i n g r a d a r c a p a b l e o f g i v i n g some n o t i c e o f m i s s i l e a t t a c k . D e s p i t e a l l t h i s , t h e c r i s i s o v e r t h e " m i s s i l e gap" d e e p e n e d t h r o u g h o u t t h e n e x t two y e a r s . W i t h o n l y t h e s p a r s e s t d a t a a v a i l a b l e o n enemy d e p l o y m e n t p l a n s , a n d w i t h E i s e n h o w e r ' s u n a v o i d a b l e d e c i s i o n n o t t o r e v e a l t h e e x i s t e n c e o f t h e U-2, s p e c u l a t i o n was r i f e . I n i t s u s u a l f o r m , t h i s s p e c u l a t i o n r e s u l t e d i n a demand t h a t t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n assume a " w o r s t p l a u s i b l e c a s e , " t h e d e f i n i t i o n s o f " w o r s t " a n d p l a u s i b l e " v a r y i n g w i t h t h e i n d i v i d u a l o r w i t h t h e g r o u p h e r e p r e s e n t e d . B e g i n n i n g i n e a r l y 1958, S e n a t o r J o h n s o n d i s c l o s e d s u p p o s e d l y s e c r e t t e s t i m o n y p r e s e n t e d t o h i s c o m m i t t e e b y 4 1 . a number o f m i l i t a r y c r i t i c s o f g o v e r n m e n t p o l i c y . T h u s , h e r e v e a l e d t h a t o f f i c e r s s u c h a s G e n e r a l Thomas W h i t e , A i r F o r c e C h i e f o f S t a f f , G e n e r a l B e r n a r d S c h r i e v e r , h e a d o f t h e A i r F o r c e b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e p r o g r a m , a n d G e n e r a l James G a v i n , t h e r e t i r i n g h e a d o f Army r e s e a r c h a n d i n t e l l i g e n c e , w e r e a l l a f r a i d t h a t t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n was n o t s p e e d i n g up 34 i t s m i s s i l e p r o g r a m s s u f f i c i e n t l y . N o t t o o s u r p r i s i n g l y , t h e S e n a t o r a l s o u s e d t h i s t e s t i m o n y t o s u p p o r t h i s c o n t e n -t i o n t h a t e v e n t h e r e c e n t a c c e l e r a t i o n o f t h e A m e r i c a n m i s s i l e p r o g r a m s was i n a d e q u a t e , and a s i m i l a r theme was e v i d e n t i n a r e p o r t i s s u e d b y h i s s u b c o m m i t t e e i n l a t e 35 J a n u a r y , 1958. I n w h a t was, i f a n y t h i n g , a l e s s r e s t r a i n e d v e i n , o t h e r p r o m i n e n t D e m o c r a t s s u c h a s S y m i n g t o n and K e n n e d y s o o n s e i z e d u p o n t h i s i s s u e as y e t a n o t h e r i n s t a n c e 36 o f t h e d a n g e r o u s i m m o b i l i s m e o f t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n . F i n a l l y , t h e P r e s i d e n t ' s r e f u s a l t o p u b l i s h t h e G a i t h e r R e p o r t , a n d t h e " l e a k i n g " o f s e c t i o n s o f i t t o t h e p r e s s , seemed t o c o n f i r m t h e i m p r e s s i o n t h a t a n i n e p t P r e s i d e n t h a d o v e r r u l e d e x p e r t o p i n i o n a n d was now b e n t u p on a c o u r s e 37 w h i c h w o u l d s e r i o u s l y e n d a n g e r A m e r i c a n s e c u r i t y . T h i s i m p r e s s i o n was s t r e n g t h e n e d i m m e a s u r a b l y i n 1959. The P r e s i d e n t ' s S t a t e o f t h e U n i o n M e s s a g e em-p h a s i z e d t h a t s e v e n b i l l i o n d o l l a r s w o u l d be s p e n t o n 42. m i s s i l e s i n t h e c o m i n g f i s c a l y e a r , b u t i t a l s o c o n t a i n e d a n o u t r i g h t r e j e c t i o n o f p r e s s u r e s f o r f a r g r e a t e r e f f o r t s . We must g u a r d a g a i n s t f e v e r i s h b u i l d i n g o f v a s t armaments t o meet g l i b l y p r e d i c t e d moments o f s o -c a l l e d "maximum p e r i l . " M o re d e t a i l e d - a n d a l a r m i n g - e l a b o r a t i o n s o o n came f r o m 39 D e f e n s e S e c r e t a r y M c E l r o y . The U n i t e d S t a t e s , h e s t a t e d , s h o u l d h a v e a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e same number o f I.C.B.M.s a s t h e U.S.S.R. i n 1959. A d m i t t e d l y , i t was p o s s i b l e t h a t S o v i e t r a t e s o f d e p l o y m e n t m i g h t a c c e l e r a t e t h e r e a f t e r , b u t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s w o u l d n o t s e e k t o m a t c h h e r o p p o n e n t i n t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f f i r s t - g e n e r a t i o n I.C.B.M.s; i n s t e a d , s h e w o u l d c o n c e n t r a t e o n P o l a r i s , w h i c h s h o u l d be o p e r a t i o n a l b y t h e e n d o f 1960, a n d t h e s e c o n d - g e n e r a t i o n M i n u t e m a n , w h i c h was e x p e c t e d t o be o p e r a t i o n a l b y 1 9 6 3 . T h u s , t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n h a d c o n s c i o u s l y d e c i d e d t o p e r m i t a " m i s s i l e gap" t o d e v e l o p d u r i n g t h e n e x t few y e a r s , s h o u l d Moscow s e e k t o c r e a t e o n e . I n a c t u a l f a c t , t h i s d e c i s i o n was e m i n e n t l y s o u n d f r o m a s t r a t e g i c p o i n t o f v i e w . The " m i s s i l e g ap," a f t e r a l l , m i g h t w e l l f a i l t o d e v e l o p . F u r t h e r m o r e , e v e n i f m e a s u r e s s u c h a s e a r l y w a r n i n g w e r e i n e f f e c t i v e , enemy n u m e r i c a l s u p e r i o r i t y d i d n o t n e c e s s a r i l y mean t h a t t h e 4 3 . A m e r i c a n s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s w o u l d be t o t a l l y a n n i h i l a t e d . G e n e r a l Thomas Power, t h e S.A.C. commander i n 1960 a n d a v o c i f e r o u s p r o p h e t o f a " m i s s i l e gap," a d m i t t e d t h a t a n a v e r a g e o f t h r e e f i r s t - g e n e r a t i o n I.C.B.M.s w e r e r e q u i r e d t o d e s t r o y a s o f t t a r g e t s u c h a s a n a i r f i e l d o r a f i r s t -40 g e n e r a t i o n m i s s i l e b a s e . I t f o l l o w e d f r o m t h i s t h a t i t was n o t n e c e s s a r y t o m a t c h R u s s i a n m i s s i l e f o r c e s ; i t was o n l y n e c e s s a r y t o h a v e s u f f i c i e n t f o r c e s - be t h e y bombers o r m i s s i l e s - t o e n s u r e t h a t t h e r e w o u l d be more t a r g e t s t h a n e f f e c t i v e a t t a c k e r s , and t h a t t h e s u r v i v i n g f o r c e s w o u l d be l a r g e e nough t o d e c i m a t e t h e enemy i n r e t u r n . P e r h a p s most i m p o r t a n t o f a l l , as t h e G a i t h e r C o m m i t t e e h a d p o i n t e d o u t , t h e o p e r a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f f i r s t - g e n e r a t i o n m i s s i l e s w o u l d be f a r l e s s s a t i s f a c t -o r y t h a n t h o s e o f t h e i r s u c c e s s o r s . L o c a t e d o n u n p r o t e c t e d s i t e s , o r i n l i g h t l y p r o t e c t e d o n e s , t h e y w e r e a l m o s t as v u l n e r a b l e as manned a i r c r a f t w h i l e s t i l l o n t h e g r o u n d , an d , a s t h e y r e q u i r e d a b o u t a q u a r t e r o f a n h o u r o f p r e p a r a -t i o n b e f o r e t h e y c o u l d be f i r e d , t h e i r r e a c t i o n t i m e was 41 no. b e t t e r t h a n t h a t o f t h e b ombers o n g r o u n d a l e r t . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e i r i n a c c u r a c y was a p p a l l i n g ; t h e c i r c u l a r e r r o r p r o b a b l e (C.E.P.) o r i g i n a l l y e x p e c t e d o f t h e A t l a s 44. was f i v e miles, and i t s C.E.P. i n 1960, aft e r i t had attained operational status and had been extensively tested, was s t i l l approximately two miles compared to one-quarter 42 of a mile for bombers. Apparently a f f l i c t e d with a r e l i a b i l i t y rate of 43 four percent at the outset, they were always ^independable. Indeed, Herbert York, who was a member of the President's Science Advisory Committee (P.S.A.C.) and Director of Defense Research and Engineering at this time, has stated that: Perhaps only as few as twenty percent of them would have reached t h e i r targets i n a r e a l war s i t u a t i o n during t h e ^ | i r s t year or so of so-called operation readiness. Most serious of a l l , I.C.B.M.s, unlike bombers, could not 45 be r e c a l l e d once they had been launched. This factor, i n combination with t h e i r v u l n e r a b i l i t y on the ground, l e f t l i t t l e room for mistakes. Technical malfunctions i n early warning radar and human errors i n int e r p r e t i n g data from i t , however, were by no means impossible. In view of t h i s , i t was conceivable that these missiles would be committed to b a t t l e on the basis of erroneous warning or that fears of such an eventuality would prevent them from 4 5 . b e i n g f i r e d i n t i m e . I n c o n t r a s t t o t h i s , b o t h P o l a r i s a n d M i n u t e m a n p r o m i s e d h i g h e f f i c i e n c y a n d maximum s t r a t e g i c s t a b i l i t y . S t a t i o n e d o n n u c l e a r s u b m a r i n e s w h i c h w e r e a l l b u t i n v u l -n e r a b l e a t s e a , t h e P o l a r i s was v i r t u a l l y immune t o s u r p r i s e 46 a t t a c k . S i m i l a r l y , M i n u t e m a n , w h i c h h a d b e e n s t a r t e d i n 1957, d i f f e r e d f r o m t h e l i q u i d f u e l e d A t l a s i n t h a t i t h a d s t o r a b l e s o l i d f u e l a n d h e n c e c o u l d be p r o t e c t e d i n " h a r d e n e d " u n d e r g r o u n d s i t e s . W i t h a n a n t i c i p a t e d h i g h r a t e o f r e l i a b i l i t y , a r e a c t i o n t i m e o f a p p r o x i m a t e l y one m i n u t e , a C.E.P. o f l e s s t h a n one m i l e , a n d a c a p a c i t y f o r r e l a t i v e l y c h e a p mass p r o d u c t i o n , i t w o u l d be a n i n v a l u a b l e a d d i t i o n t o t h e A m e r i c a n n u c l e a r a r s e n a l when i t became 47 o p e r a t i o n a l . T a k e n t o g e t h e r , o r e v e n s i n g l y , t h e s e weapons s y s t e m s w o u l d e n h a n c e t h e c r e d i b i l i t y o f t h e d e -t e r r e n t i m m e a s u r a b l y , f o r t h e i r a b i l i t y t o s u r v i v e a n enemy f i r s t s t r i k e a n d t o d e l i v e r a s h a t t e r i n g r e t a l i a t o r y b l o w w o u l d be u n q u e s t i o n a b l e . N o n e t h e l e s s , t h e s e b e n e f i t s seemed e t h e r e a l t o many when t h e y t h o u g h t o f t h e a l l t o o n e a r " m i s s i l e g ap," p a r t i c u l a r l y when t h e g o v e r n m e n t a d m i t t e d t h a t t h i s "gap," 46. i f i t materialized, would be the r e s u l t of a conscious decision by i t s e l f . To add to t h i s , i n December, 1958 the United States had at l a s t come to the point reached by the Soviet Union a year previously; she had achieved a f u l l -48 thrust f i r i n g of an I.C.B.M. On the threshold of both an operational American I.C.B.M. c a p a b i l i t y and a possible Russian preponderance i n t h i s area, the question of force levels became yet more pressing. When the A i r Force f a i l e d to convince the Adminis-t r a t i o n that i t should increase the programmed force of 208 Atlases and follow-on Titans by seventy-two more Atlases, i t "leaked" predictions that the U.S.S.R. could have f i v e hun-dred missiles by 1961, compared to about f i f t y for the United States, and that she could have twice t h i s number i n 49 . . . the following year. In a more fo r t h r i g h t fashion, o f f i c e r s such as General Power e x p l i c i t l y c r i t i c i z e d o f f i c i a l p o l i c y i n testimony to Congress and i n public speeches. Thus, i n A p r i l , 1959, three months afte r Eisenhower refused the re-quest for an increase i n m i s s i l e forces, he warned that the American deterrent posture was "deteriorating" and combined pleas for more bombers and an airborne a l e r t with anaappeal 50 . for more m i s s i l e s . Congress, alarmed by. warnings such as 47. t h i s , and already sympathetic to the A i r Force position, appropriated funds for the additional I.C.B.M.s requested 51 by that service. S i m i l a r l y , when the President rejected the Army's contention that the Nike-Zeus a n t i b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e (A.B.Mi) was ready for deployment, i t s appeal to Congress led that body to vote "preproduction funds" for th i s purpose. The Executive countered these congressional attempts to a l t e r i t s p o l i c i e s with deceptive ease; i t simply refused to spend the extra funds appropriated. Within a few months, though, i t had become apparent to Eisenhower that he could not f u l l y withstand these pressures. Paradoxically., developments at the close of the deca&e offered substantial, i f not conclusive, v i n d i c a t i o n of h i s approach to force planning. By early 1960 data from the U-2 f l i g h t s had confirmed him i n his doubts about a coming "missile gap," for i t indicated that the Kremlin had 53 not deployed more than about ten I.C.B.M.s. These same f l i g h t s also pointed to a major reason for such a slow rate of deployment two years aft e r the launching of Sputnik; the Soviets' mi s s i l e program was beset by d i f f i c u l t i e s 4 8 . s i m i l a r t o t h o s e e n c o u n t e r e d b y i t s A m e r i c a n c o u n t e r p a r t , 54 a n d t h e a c c u r a c y o f t h e i r I.C.B.M.s was a c t u a l l y i n f e r i o r . C l o s e l y l i n k e d t o t h i s , a s p e e c h o n n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y d e l i v e r e d b y P r e m i e r K h r u s h c h e v o n J a n u a r y 14, 1960 p o i n t e d t o a n o t h e r p o s s i b l e , t h o u g h o n l y p o s s i b l e , 55 r e a s o n f o r t h i s phenomenon. T h e r m o n u c l e a r w e a p o n s , h e c o n t e n d e d , h a d r e p l a c e d c o n v e n t i o n a l s t r e n g t h a s t h e d e c i s i v e component o f m odern armed f o r c e s . A s a r e s u l t o f t h i s , a n d a s a r e s u l t o f e x t e n s i v e w o r k o n t h e s e weapons i n t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , h e r s e c u r i t y h a d b e e n g r e a t l y e n h a n c e d ; as K h r u s h c h e v p u t i t , h e r p r e s e n t s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s w e r e 56 w e l l a b l e t o g u a r a n t e e h e r " u n a s s a i l a b i l i t y . " T h i s a r g u -ment i n i t s e l f p r o v i d e d some r e a s s u r a n c e , f o r as S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e Thomas G a t e s c a u t i o u s l y n o t e d , i t seemed t o e n d o r s e d e t e r r e n c e , r a t h e r t h a n w a r - m a k i n g , a s t h e a p p r o p -57 r i a t e o b j e c t i v e o f t h e s e f o r c e s . A s s u c h , i t j o i n e d w i t h h i s e m p h a s i s o n t h e a d e q u a c y o f e x i s t i n g R u s s i a n S t r a t e g i c f o r c e s a n d c u r r e n t i n t e l l i g e n c e o n t h e i r m o d e s t r a t e o f g r o w t h t o c a s t s e r i o u s d o u b t o n a r g u m e n t s t h a t t h e enemy was m a k i n g a l a r g e - s c a l e b i d f o r a c o u n t e r f o r c e c a p a b i l i t y . O f e v e n g r e a t e r i m p o r t a n c e , t h e P r e m i e r h a d u s e d h i s a s s e s s m e n t o f t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e t h e r m o n u c l e a r 4 9 . r e v o l u t i o n t o j u s t i f y h i s d e c i s i o n t o s a v e s e v e n t e e n b i l l i o n r u b l e s t h r o u g h r e d u c t i o n o f armed f o r c e s p e r s o n n e l b y o n e -t h i r d . T h u s , f a r f r o m c o m m i t t i n g h i m s e l f t o t h e enormous e x p e n d i t u r e s f e a r e d b y t h e A m e r i c a n A i r F o r c e , K h r u s h c h e v seemed t o b e t r y i n g t o c u t b a c k t h e d e f e n s e b u d g e t i n o r d e r t o d i v e r t s c a r c e r e s o u r c e s t o h i s p r o g r a m s f o r r a i s i n g t h e R u s s i a n s t a n d a r d o f l i v i n g a n d m a i n t a i n i n g a h i g h r a t e o f e c o n o m i c g r o w t h . The l o g i c a l c o n c l u s i o n t o a l l t h i s was t h a t t h e t h r e a t t h e n f a c i n g t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , a n d t h e one w h i c h w o u l d emerge i n f u t u r e , w o u l d p r o b a b l y be a c o u n t e r -v a l u e o n e . P a r a l l e l t o t h i s , t h e p r o g r a m s a c c e l e r a t e d i n 1958 w e r e c o m i n g t o f r u i t i o n o r w e r e a b o u t t o do s o . The f i r s t B a l l i s t i c M i s s i l e E a r l y W a r n i n g S y s t e m (B.M.E.W.S.) 58 i n s t a l l a t i o n was t o b e c o m p l e t e d i n O c t o b e r , 1 9 6 0 . F i n a l l y , t h e A t l a s h a d p r o g r e s s e d t o t h e p o i n t w h e r e i t was d e c l a r e d o p e r a t i o n a l i n S e p t e m b e r , 1 9 5 9 . ^ E n c o u r a g i n g a s t h i s l a t t e r d e v e l o p m e n t may h a v e b e e n f o r E i s e n h o w e r , i t a l s o b o r e t h e s e e d s o f t r o u b l e f o r h i m . A s G e n e r a l W h i t e h i m s e l f a d m i t t e d , t h e p e r s i s t e n t t e c h n i c a l d i f f i c u l t i e s p l a g u i n g t h e A t l a s p r o g r a m , a n d c o n -c o m i t a n t u n c e r t a i n t i e s a b o u t when, and i n d e e d i f , t h e s e d i f -50. f i c u l t i e s c o u l d be r e s o l v e d h a d g r e a t l y b o l s t e r e d E i s e n -h o w e r ' s p o s i t i o n i n ' r e s i s t i n g t h e p r e s s u r e s f o r i n c r e a s i n g 61 t h e programmed m i s s i l e s t r e n g t h i n 1959. A y e a r l a t e r , w i t h t h i s weapon's e v o l u t i o n t o o p e r a t i o n a l s t a t u s , t h i s o b s t a c l e was i n l a r g e m e a s u r e r e m o v e d . O p p o s i t i o n t o e x -p a n s i o n i n i t s numbers c o u l d now be p o r t r a y e d , n o t as a p r u d e n t r e f u s a l t o w a s t e money o n a n unknown q u a n t i t y , b u t as a f a i l u r e t o t a k e a d v a n t a g e o f a b a t t l e - r e a d y weapons s y s t e m . G i v e n t h e c l i m a t e o f p u b l i c o p i n i o n a t t h a t t i m e , t h e r e c o u l d be no d o u b t about' t h e p o p u l a r r e a c t i o n t o s u c h a d e v e l o p m e n t ; f o r t y - s e v e n p e r c e n t o f t h o s e p o l l e d on F e b r u a r y 10, 1960 s t i l l b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e U.S.S.R. was a h e a d o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i n I.C.B.M.s, c o m p a r e d t o o n l y t h i r t y -t h r e e p e r c e n t who b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e a d v a n t a g e l a y w i t h 62 t h e i r own c o u n t r y . T h i s i n t u r n c o u l d h a v e s e r i o u s i m -p l i c a t i o n s i n a n e l e c t i o n y e a r , a n d a l t h o u g h E i s e n h o w e r was n o t a c a n d i d a t e h i m s e l f , h e h a d a n i n t e r e s t i n v i c t o r y f o r h i s p a r t y , a n d h e n c e a v i n d i c a t i o n f o r h i s a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . T h u s , i n t h e f i s c a l y e a r 1961 d e f e n s e b u d g e t t h e A d m i n i s t r a -t i o n r e s p o n d e d t o e v i d e n c e o f t h e e m e r g i n g s t r a t e g i c t h r e a t b y p r o v i d i n g f o r p l a c e m e n t o f o n e - e i g h t o f S.A.C. o n a i r -5 1 . b o r n e a l e r t , b u t i t a l s o bowed t o t h e p r e s s u r e s o f e v o l v i n g m i l i t a r y t e c h n o l o g y a n d t h e A i r F o r c e - C o n g r e s s i o n a l a l l i a n c e 63 b y a g r e e i n g t o a n a d d i t i o n a l s i x t y - t h r e e A t l a s e s . THE EVOLUTION OF AMERICAN NUCLEAR STRATEGY  UNDER EISENHOWER: TENTATIVE D E F I N I T I O N OF  COERCIVE DETERRENCE, 1960-1961 P a r a l l e l t o t h i s , a f a r more momentous c h a n g e , a n a l t e r a t i o n i n t h e a c t u a l o b j e c t i v e s o f A m e r i c a n s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s , h a d b e e n f o r c e d u p o n t h e E i s e n h o w e r a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . The p u r e l y c o u n t e r v a l u e s t r a t e g y e m b r a c e d b y t h a t a d m i n i s -t r a t i o n e v e r s i n c e t h e dawn o f t h e t h e r m o n u c l e a r a ge was a t l a s t g i v i n g way t o one i n w h i c h c o u n t e r f o r c e d o c t r i n e p l a y e d a p r o m i n e n t , t h o u g h f a r f r o m d o m i n a n t , r o l e . T h i s d e v e l o p m e n t , m a n i f e s t i n t h e e n u n c i a t i o n o f a c r u d e f o r m o f c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e i n e a r l y 1 9 6 0 , r e p r e s e n t e d a n a t t e m p t t o a t l e a s t p a r t i a l l y r e s o l v e a s t r a t e g i c d e b a t e w h i c h h a d b e e n m o u n t i n g i n i n t e n s i t y o v e r t h e l a s t s i x y e a r s . I.. PRESSURES ON THE ADMINISTRATION TO ADOPT A COUNTER-FORCE STRATEGY A. THE COUNTERFORCE CRITIQUE D i s s e n t w i t h c o u n t e r v a l u e p o l i c y d a t e d f r o m i t s v e r y i n c e p t i o n . A s e a r l y a s 1954, t h e N a t i o n a l S e c u r i t y C o u n c i l r e p o r t e d l y c a r r i e d m a s s i v e r e t a l i a t i o n t o i t s l o g i c a l c o n c l u s i o n b y c o n t e n d i n g " i f a t one b l o w t h e t h r e a t 5 3 . o f A m e r i c a ' s d e s t r u c t i o n f r o m a n a t o m i c a t t a c k w o u l d be r e m o v e d , t h a t b l o w s h o u l d be s t r u c k . " ' ' " I n t h i s same y e a r , T w i n i n g a p p r o a c h e d t h i s p o s i t i o n when h e c r i t i c i z e d t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n f o r i t s f a i l u r e t o i n v e s t i n t h e f o r c e s 2 n e c e s s a r y f o r a c o u n t e r f o r c e c a p a b i l i t y . F i n a l l y , t h e g r o w i n g v u l n e r a b i l i t y o f A m e r i c a n c i t i e s , as w e l l as A m e r i c a n s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s , was a c o n s t a n t theme i n LeMay's w a r n i n g s o f a "bomber gap." T h u s , h e p o i n t e d o u t t h a t t h e R u s s i a n s w e r e " s t e a d i l y n a r r o w i n g o u r p r e s e n t f a v o u r -a b l e m a r g i n " i n n u c l e a r power a n d h e e m p h a s i z e d t h a t w h e r e a s f i v e y e a r s ago t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s c o u l d h a v e won a c e n t r a l w a r w i t h t h e S o v i e t U n i o n " w i t h o u t s u f f e r i n g s e r i o u s damage t o t h i s c o u n t r y , " t h e enemy c o u l d now i n -3 f l i c t g r i e v o u s i n j u r y , o n h i s p e o p l e i n s u c h a w a r . E x p o s i t i o n s o n t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h i s d e v e l o p -ment and o n t h e a d v a n t a g e s o f a c o u n t e r f o r c e c a p a b i l i t y , h o w e v e r , w e r e p r e s e n t e d m o s t c o m p l e t e l y a n d most f o r c e -f u l l y a t t h e e n d o f t h e d e c a d e . A s b e f o r e , c r i t i c i s m o f t h e p r e v a i l i n g d o c t r i n e came p r i m a r i l y f r o m A i r F o r c e p e r -s o n n e l s u c h as T w i n i n g , who h a d become C h a i r m a n o f t h e J o i n t C h i e f s o f S t a f f ( J . C . S . ) i n 1957, W h i t e , t h e A i r F o r c e Chief o f S t a f f , LeMay, h i s V i c e C h i e f , a n d Mr. S h a r p , 54. t h e c i v i l i a n S e c r e t a r y . A c c o r d i n g t o them, a c o u n t e r v a l u e s t r a t e g y l e f t a p o t e n t i a l l y d a n g e r o u s g a p b e t w e e n t h e p o l i t i c a l i n t e r e s t s o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a n d h e r m i l i t a r y c a p a b i l i t i e s . P r e -s e r v a t i o n o f t h e A m e r i c a n h o m e l a n d , o f c o u r s e , was t h e m ost c r u c i a l o f t h e s e i n t e r e s t s , y e t s u c h a s t r a t e g y o f f e r e d a n u n r e l i a b l e g u a r a n t e e o f t h i s . A s G e n e r a l T w i n i n g p o i n t e d o u t , i t meant t h a t " t h e n a t i o n a l s u r v i v a l 4 d e p e n d s u p o n t h e w i l l a n d j u d g m e n t o f a n enemy." Un-f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e S o v i e t s , l i k e o t h e r human b e i n g s , w e r e 5 c a p a b l e o f i r r a t i o n a l i t y a n d m i s c a l c u l a t i o n . Y e t more s e r i o u s , a c t i o n s w h i c h w e r e r a t i o n a l f r o m t h e K r e m l i n ' s p o i n t o f v i e w m i g h t l e a d t o a n u c l e a r c a t a c l y s m , f o r t h e R u s s i a n l e a d e r s w e r e d e d i c a t e d t o t h e d e s t r u c t i o n o f t h e W e s t a n d w e r e p r e p a r e d t o r i s k w a r w i t h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s 6 i n p u r s u i t o f t h i s o b j e c t i v e . I t was p o s s i b l e , t h e n , t h a t t h e d e t e r r e n t m i g h t f a i l , a n d i t was c e r t a i n t h a t c o u n t e r -v a l u e r e t a l i a t i o n a l o n e c o u l d n o t l i m i t t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f i t s f a i l u r e . P a r a l l e l t o t h i s , G e n e r a l W h i t e a r g u e d : 55. Then suppose the enemy decided to attack one of our a l l i e s to whom we have basic security obligations. Under these circumstances we would be forced to re-cognize that our decision to support the a l l y under attack could mean d i r e c t attack on our country by unimpaired s t r i k i n g power. I believe that t h i s s i t u a t i o n would be apparent to the enemy and to our a l l i e s . I t seems to me that ' f i n i t e deterrence' (a countervalue strategy) equates pretty well with a 'Fortress America' concept. The "basic security obligations" which White and h i s c o l -leagues had i n mind were primarily those contained i n the North A t l a n t i c Treaty. Important as the NATO a l l i e s were to the Americans, they were not worth the destruction of the United States h e r s e l f . Consequently, i n the words of General LeMay, there was "some reasonable doubt whether thi s pledge (to defend Western Europe) would be honoured 8 i n case of nuclear war." Limitation of the c o n f l i c t to Europe was there-fore a prerequisite for f u l f i l l m e n t by the United States 9 of her NATO obligations. Escalation, however, would be a l l but inevitable i f she decided to r e s i s t a massive and determined Russian attack on t h i s area; the perennial Western i n f e r i o r i t y i n non-nuclear strength would make pro-longed conventional resistance to such an attack impossible, and this would ultimately force the Americans to resort to 56. s t r a t e g i c t h e r m o n u c l e a r weapons."'" 0 G i v e n a . c o u n t e r v a l u e s t r a t e g y , t h i s w o u l d i n v o l v e d e v a s t a t i o n o f R u s s i a n c i t i e s , a n d t h e K r e m l i n w o u l d t h e n h a v e b o t h t h e c a p a c i t y and t h e i n c e n t i v e t o r e t a l i a t e i n k i n d . U n d e r t h e s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s , a d e c i s i o n t o d e f e n d W e s t e r n E u r o p e w o u l d be t a n t a m o u n t t o a d e c i s i o n t o c ommit s u i c i d e , a n d i t was p o s s i b l e t h a t A m e r i c a n d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s m i g h t r e c o i l b e f o r e t h i s p r o s p e c t . I t f o l l o w e d f r o m t h i s t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s ' g u a r a n t e e t o h e r NATO a l l i e s l a c k e d c r e d i b i l i t y , a f a c t o r w h i c h w o u l d make t h e S o v i e t s b o l d e r i n t h e i r e f f o r t s t o e x p a n d t h e i r i n f l u e n c e a n d w h i c h w o u l d u n d e r m i n e t h e W e s t e r n E u r o p e a n s ' d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o r e s i s t t h e s e e f f o r t s . The r e s u l t w o u l d be a g e n e r a l d e t e r i o r a -t i o n o f t h e A m e r i c a n d i p l o m a t i c p o s i t i o n a n d a n i n c r e a s i n g p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s w o u l d u l t i m a t e l y b e f a c e d w i t h a n a g o n i z i n g c h o i c e b e t w e e n t o t a l s u r r e n d e r a n d a d i s a s t r o u s c e n t r a l w a r . ^ The b e s t s o l u t i o n t o t h e s e p r o b l e m s , t h e a r g u m e n t c o n t i n u e d , was o f f e r e d b y a c o u n t e r f o r c e s t r a t e g y , a s t r a t e g y w h i c h p r o v i d e d f o r t h e d e s t r u c t i o n o f S o v i e t s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s . A s G e n e r a l W h i t e a d m i t t e d , i t was c o n -c e i v a b l e t h a t t h i s s t r a t e g y w o u l d b e u s e l e s s i f t h e S o v i e t s 57. d e c i d e d t o a t t a c k t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s d e s p i t e c e r t a i n know-l e d g e t h a t t h i s w o u l d l e a d t o t h e i r own a n n i h i l a t i o n and i f t h e r e was no w a r n i n g o f t h e c o m i n g a t t a c k . I n t h i s e v e n t , t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s w o u l d s u f f e r g r i e v o u s l y "no 12 m a t t e r w h a t we h a v e . " C o m p l e t e s u r p r i s e , a n d i r r a t i o n -a l i t y o n t h i s s c a l e , w e r e n e v e r t h e l e s s h i g h l y i m p r o b a b l e . D e c i s i o n - m a k e r s h a d r a r e l y g i v e n h o s t a g e s t o f o r -t u n e b y r e s o r t i n g t o w a r u n l e s s t h e y h a d f i r s t a s c e r t a i n e d t h a t t h e y c o u l d n o t g a i n t h e i r p o l i t i c a l o b j e c t i v e s b y p e a c e f u l means. Th u s , t h e m a j o r i t y o f c o n f l i c t s h a d a r i s e n a f t e r a n e x t e n d e d p e r i o d o f i n c r e a s i n g p o l i t i c a l t e n s i o n s . The p o s s i b i l i t y o f i r r a t i o n a l enemy b e h a v i o u r w o u l d be g r e a t e s t d u r i n g s u c h p e r i o d s , b u t A m e r i c a n v i g i l -a n c e w o u l d a l s o be a t i t s h e i g h t . C o n s e q u e n t l y , t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s m i g h t w e l l h a v e some w a r n i n g o f a n i m p e n d i n g a t t a c k b y S o v i e t s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s , a n d s h e c o u l d t h e n 13 l a u n c h a p r e - e m p t i v e a s s a u l t a g a i n s t them. F u r t h e r m o r e , h i s t o r y p r o v i d e d f e w e x a m p l e s o f a c o m p l e t e l y i r r a t i o n a l a t t a c k . A s S e c r e t a r y S h a r p n o t e d , e v e n t h e J a p a n e s e a t t a c k o n P e a r l H a r b o u r was m o t i v a t e d 14 . . b y t h e b e l i e f t h a t v i c t o r y was p o s s i b l e . D e c i s i o n s t o go t o w a r , t h e n , w e r e u s u a l l y b a s e d u p on a r a t i o n a l c a l -58. c u l a t i o n of the prospective benefits and the p r i c e to be paid for them. In view of t h i s , and i n view of the fact that the Soviets usually based t h e i r actions upon such r a t i o n a l c a l -culations, a counterforce c a p a b i l i t y , combined with a countervalue one would o f f e r the optimum deterrent. A war-winning c a p a b i l i t y such as t h i s would maximize the disincentives to an attack on the United States by ensur-ing that such an attack would bring on, not only widespread devastation of the Soviet Union, but i n e v i t a b l e defeat. S i m i l a r l y , i t would enhance the disincentives to an attack on Western Europe by bringing the costs of defending that area into harmony with the American valuation of her importance. Moreover, such a c a p a b i l i t y would also provide maximum support for American diplomacy i n peace-time, while i f h o s t i l i t i e s erupted i t would enable the United States to survive as a viable society and to d i c t a t e 15 peace terms to her opponent. In short, the counterforce school argued that war - even thermonuclear war - need not be a purposeless slaughter; i t could s t i l l provide a r a t i o n a l means of securing American p o l i t i c a l objectives, and a war-winning c a p a b i l i t y would a c t u a l l y increase the 59. p r o b a b i l i t y o f p e a c e f u l a t t a i n m e n t o f t h e s e o b j e c t i v e s . B. THE PROBLEM OF WESTERN EUROPE P r e s i d e n t E i s e n h o w e r was w e l l a w a r e o f t h e d a n g e r s t o w h i c h t h e s e men p o i n t e d . The U n i t e d S t a t e s , h e r e a l i z e d , w o u l d a l m o s t i n e v i t a b l y be f o r c e d t o i n i t i a t e a s t r a t e g i c t h e r m o n u c l e a r e x c h a n g e i f s h e d e c i d e d t o d e f e n d h e r NATO a l l i e s . T h u s , d u r i n g t h e s e c o n d B e r l i n c r i s i s , h e h a d t o l d a g r o u p o f c o n g r e s s i o n a l l e a d e r s t h a t "we h a d no i n t e n -t i o n o f o p p o s i n g , w i t h g r o u n d t r o o p s , a f u l l - o u t a t t a c k b y a c o u p l e o f h u n d r e d S o v i e t d i v i s i o n s , b u t t h a t we w o u l d 16 t a k e c a r e o f t h e s i t u a t i o n . " " T a k i n g c a r e o f t h e s i t u a -t i o n , " h e b e l i e v e d , w o u l d p r o b a b l y r e s u l t , n o t m e r e l y i n a l o c a l e x c h a n g e o f t a c t i c a l n u c l e a r w e a p o n s , b u t i n 17 " g l o b a l w a r . " T h i s c o n s i d e r a t i o n , c o m b i n e d w i t h t h e c e r t a i n t y t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s w o u l d be o b l i t e r a t e d i n s u c h a w a r , l e d t o d o u b t s i n b o t h t h e W e s t e r n a n d S o v i e t camps a b o u t t h e c r e d i b i l i t y o f t h e A m e r i c a n g u a r a n t e e t o W e s t e r n E u r o p e . " K h r u s h c h e v , " w r o t e E i s e n h o w e r , " now h o p e d t o e x p l o i t d i f f e r e n c e s among t h e f o u r W e s t e r n g o v e r n m e n t s -d i f f e r e n c e s , f o r e x a m p l e , o v e r t h e k i n d o f Com m u n i s t 60. 18 p r o v o c a t i o n t h a t c o u l d c o m p e l t h e W e s t t o go t o w a r . " A s e a r l y a s November 6, 1957, t h e R u s s i a n l e a d e r h a d s o u g h t t o c a p i t a l i z e u p o n t h e s h o c k f o l l o w i n g h i s c o u n t r y ' s d r a m a t i c a c h i e v e m e n t s i n m i s s i l e t e c h n o l o g y b y p r o p o s i n g a new c o n f e r e n c e o f t h e g r e a t p o w e r s , a c o n f e r e n c e w h i c h w o u l d o b v i o u s l y t a k e p l a c e u n d e r t h e shadow o f S p u t n i k . U n d e r p r e s s u r e f r o m some o f h e r NATO a l l i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y B r i t a i n , t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s was f o r c e d t o r e s p o n d f a v o u r a b l y "/ 19 t o t h i s d e m a r c h e . Y e t more s e r i o u s , t h e S o v i e t s h a d i n i t i a t e d a new B e r l i n c r i s i s i n l a t e 1958 b y t h r e a t e n i n g t o s i g n a 20 s e p a r a t e t r e a t y w i t h E a s t Germany. I n F e b r u a r y , 1959, a t t h e h e i g h t o f t h i s s e c o n d B e r l i n c r i s i s , D u l l e s t o u r e d E u r o p e i n a n a t t e m p t t o s t r e n g t h e n W e s t e r n s o l i d a r i t y . H i s f i n d i n g s r e v e a l e d t h e p e r s i s t e n c e o f s i g n i f i c a n t d i v e r -g e n c e s b e t w e e n t h e a l l i e s . B r i t a i n , a c u t e l y c o n s c i o u s o f h e r v u l n e r a b i l i t y s h o u l d a t h e r m o n u c l e a r w a r e r u p t , s o u g h t a r e a s o f c o m p r o m i s e more r e a d i l y t h a n t h e A m e r i c a n s w i s h e d . F r a n c e , o n t h e o t h e r h a n d , a p p e a r e d o v e r l y i n t r a n s i g e n t ; a s E i s e n h o w e r p u t i t , P r e s i d e n t De G a u l l e "seemed t o be p r e -p a r e d t o u s e f o r c e a l i t t l e . m o r e s u d d e n l y t h a n we t h o u g h t 22 d e s i r a b l e . " W i t h t h e F r e n c h b e n t u p on a n i n d e p e n d e n t n u c l e a r f o r c e de f r a p p e , s u p p o s e d l y as a means o f compen-s a t i n g f o r a n y l a c u n a e i n t h e A m e r i c a n d e t e r r e n t , t h i s d i s -a g r e e m e n t was p a r t i c u l a r l y s e r i o u s ; i t i n v o l v e d , n o t o n l y a w e a k e n i n g o f t h e d i p l o m a t i c f r o n t a g a i n s t t h e U.S.S.R., b u t a l s o t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t i n some f u t u r e c r i s i s t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s m i g h t be p l u n g e d i n t o a c e n t r a l w a r t h r o u g h h a s t y e m p l o y m e n t o f t h i s f o r c e b y h e r a l l y . C. IMPROVEMENTS I N M I S S I L E TECHNOLOGY I t was n e c e s s a r y , t h e n , t o f i n d some means o f r e a s s e r t i n g A m e r i c a n l e a d e r s h i p i n NATO an d o f s t e m m i n g t h e t i d e o f " S p u t n i k d i p l o m a c y . " One s u c h means, o f c o u r s e , m i g h t be a d o p t i o n o f t h e s t r a t e g y a d v o c a t e d b y W h i t e a n d h i s c o l l e a g u e s . The e v o l u t i o n o f o f f e n s i v e weapons t e c h n o l o g y d u r i n g t h e 1950's seemed t o p r e s e n t a t l e a s t some m a r g i n a l i m p r o v e m e n t i n t h e p r o s p e c t s f o r a c t u a l i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h i s s t r a t e g y . A s l o n g a s i n t e r c o n t i n e n -t a l bomber's w e r e t h e o n l y d e l i v e r y s y s t e m s a v a i l a b l e , t h e c h a n c e s f o r a s u c c e s s f u l p r e - e m p t i v e a t t a c k w e r e e x t r e m e l y i s l e n d e r ; w i t h a t i m e t o t a r g e t o f a t l e a s t t h r e e h o u r s , t h e y w o u l d p r o b a b l y g i v e t h e i r R u s s i a n c o u n t e r p a r t s moire 23 t h a n e n o u g h t i m e t o become a i r b o r n e b e f o r e t h e y a r r i v e d . 6 2 . W i t h t h e c o m i n g o f t h e I.C.B.M., h o w e v e r , t h e t i m e t o t a r g e t was r e d u c e d t o t h i r t y m i n u t e s , and a l t h o u g h many A i r F o r c e o f f i c e r s s t i l l m a i n t a i n e d t h a t t h e bomber was a u s e f u l weapon f o r c o u n t e r f o r c e o p e r a t i o n s , t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n was c o n v i n c e d t h a t , as G a t e s p u t i t , " a t r u e s u r p r i s e a t t a c k 24 w o u l d h a v e t o be a m i s s i l e a t t a c k . " The A t l a s , i t was t r u e , was a p o o r v e h i c l e f o r t h i s p u r p o s e ; i t was b a r e l y a d e q u a t e f o r c o u n t e r v a l u e m i s s i o n s , l e t a l o n e c o u n t e r f o r c e o n e s . A t t h e same t i m e , t h e T i t a n , a f o l l o w - o n t o t h i s m i s s i l e , h a d a number o f i m p r o v e d o p e r a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , m o s t n o t a b l y a l a r g e r w a r h e a d w h i c h g a v e i t a s u b s t a n t i a l c a p a b i l i t y 25 a g a i n s t e v e n h a r d t a r g e t s . M o r e o v e r , t h e v e r y f a c t t h a t e v e n t h e s e c r u d e weapons s y s t e m s r e p r e s e n t e d a v a s t i m p r o v e m e n t o v e r t h e i r p r i m i t i v e a n c e s t o r s , t h e German ¥-ls a n d V - 2 s , g a v e p l a n n e r s a n e m p i r i c a l b a s i s f o r assum-i n g t h a t f u r t h e r i m p r o v e m e n t s w o u l d come a b o u t as e x p e c t e d ; i n d e e d , G a t e s f e l t s u f f i c i e n t l y c o n f i d e n t .about t h i s t o s u g g e s t t h a t I.C.B.M.s w o u l d r e p l a c e b o m b ers a s t h e b a c k -26 b o n e o f S.A.C. b y t h e m i d - 1 9 6 0 ' s . The m i s s i l e w h i c h G a t e s h a d i n m i n d when he s a i d t h i s , t h e M i n u t e m a n , w o u l d o f c o u r s e be a n e x c e l l e n t c o u n t e r v a l u e weapon, b u t i t s 63. r e l i a b i l i t y , f i r i n g t i m e , a n d , most' i m p o r t a n t , i t s a c c u r a c y a n d p o t e n t i a l f o r mass p r o d u c t i o n a l s o p r o m i s e d t o g i v e i t u n p r e c e d e n t e d e f f e c t i v e n e s s a s a c o u n t e r f o r c e weapon. D. AMERICAN ECONOMIC SUPERIORITY A d m i t t e d l y , t h e s e s t r a t e g i c a d v a n t a g e s w o u l d come t o n o t h i n g i f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n managed t o e q u a l A m e r i c a n I.C.B.M. d e p l o y m e n t s . S u c h a n e v e n t u a l i t y , t h o u g h , was b y no means i n e v i t a b l e . T h e r e was a c o n s e n s u s among b o t h s u p -i p o r t e r s o f A d m i n i s t r a t i o n p o l i c y a n d t h e m o s t e x p e r t c r i t i c s o f t h a t p o l i c y t h a t t h e f i r s t - g e n e r a t i o n " m i s s i l e g ap," i f i t a r o s e , w o u l d be t h e r e s u l t o f a c o n s c i o u s d e c i s i o n b y t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s n o t t o m a t c h S o v i e t e f f o r t s i n t h e arms r a c e i n t h e s h o r t r u n . S i m i l a r l y , t h e r e was a l s o a . c o n s e n s u s t h a t , s h o u l d s h e s u r v i v e t h i s "gap," s h e w o u l d p r o b a b l y o v e r t a k e h e r o p p o n e n t when M i n u t e m a n became 27 o p e r a t i o n a l . The p r i m a r y c o n s i d e r a t i o n w h i c h u n d e r l a y t h i s a s s u m p t i o n , a n d w h i c h i n d e e d p o i n t e d t o t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a n e v e n t u a l A m e r i c a n n u m e r i c a l s u p e r i o r i t y , was i n d i c a t e d b y G e n e r a l W h i t e when, i n r e s p o n s e t o s p e c u l a t i o n b y one c o n g r e s s m a n t h a t t h e U.S.S.R. w o u l d m a i n t a i n t h e p r e s e n t r a t i o i n m i s s i l e s t r e n g t h o n c e s e c o n d - g e n e r a t i o n m i s s i l e s 64. had been developed, he stated: On the basis of sheer manufaEturing p r o b a b i l i t i e s and c a p a b i l i t i e s , I would say that i t i s so. Whether he (the Soviet Union) does i t or not, which i s not part of the premise, i s a question. This "question" arose from the fact that gross national product (G.N.P.) of the United States was over twice that of the U.S.S.R., and that the r e l a t i v e s a c r i -f i c e s involved i n maintaining a given l e v e l of defense spending i n the l a t t e r country were therefore far greater than those involved i n maintaining a s i m i l a r l e v e l i n the 29 former. In view of t h i s , and i n view of the evidence i n Khrushchev's January 14, 1960 speech that he was already beginning to f a l t e r under the economic strains of the arms race, there were grounds for b e l i e v i n g that the Americans would p u l l ahead i n the long run simply by main-taining t h e i r present pace. Furthermore, even i f the Russians could compete at t h i s l e v e l , i t could be argued that the economic r e s t r a i n t s operating upon them would eventually cause them to f a l l behind i f the United States rapid l y expanded her e f f o r t s . In short, there was every chance that American economic sup e r i o r i t y could be trans-lated into numerical s u p e r i o r i t y i n I.C.B.M.s i f only t h i s 6 5 . o b j e c t i v e w e r e p u r s u e d w i t h s u f f i c i e n t d e t e r m i n a t i o n . I I . COUNTERVAILING PRESSURES AGAINST FULL ADOPTION  OF A COUNTERFORCE STRATEGY D e s p i t e t h i s , h o w e v e r , d e s p i t e m a r g i n a l i m p r o v e m e n t s i n t h e t e c h n i c a l p r o s p e c t s f o r a c o u n t e r f o r c e c a p a b i l i t y , a n d d e s p i t e c o n t i n u i n g d i p l o m a t i c c r i s e s w h i c h t h r e a t e n e d t o s p a r k a n u c l e a r c o n f l a g r a t i o n , t h e A i r F o r c e c o u l d n o t g a i n f u l l a c c e p t a n c e f o r i t s p r e s c r i p t i o n s . The r e a s o n s f o r t h i s w e r e b o t h t e c h n i c a l a n d p o l i t i c a l . A. TECHNICAL I M P O S S I B I L I T Y OF A COUNTERFORCE C A P A B I L I T Y P e r h a p s m o s t i m p o r t a n t , a t r u e c o u n t e r f o r c e c a p a -b i l i t y was s i m p l y i m p o s s i b l e . A s l o n g a s t h e t i m e t o t a r g e t o f A m e r i c a n I.C.B.M.s r e m a i n e d t h i r t y m i n u t e s , a n d as l o n g as t h e S o v i e t s h a d w a r n i n g o f t h e i r c o m i n g , i t was h i g h l y p r o b a b l e t h a t a s i g n i f i c a n t p o r t i o n o f t h e R u s s i a n l a n d b a s e d s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s c o u l d e s c a p e d e s t r u c t i o n o n t h e g r o u n d . M o r e o v e r , j u s t as t h e A m e r i c a n P o l a r i s was i n v u l - . n e r a b l e t o a t t a c k b y S o v i e t m i s s i l e s , s o w e r e t h e S.L.B.M.s a b o a r d S o v i e t s u b m a r i n e s i n v u l n e r a b l e t o a t t a c k b y A m e r i c a n m i s s i l e s . S u b s t a n t i a l p r o g r e s s o n o t h e r means o f m e e t i n g 6 6 . t h i s t h r e a t - a n t i s u b m a r i n e w a r f a r e (A.S.W.), c i v i l d e f e n s e , a i r d e f e n s e , and b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e d e f e n s e (B.M.D.) - was c o n s e q u e n t l y a n e s s e n t i a l p r e r e q u i s i t e f o r a c o u n t e r f o r c e s t r a t e g y . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , d e v e l o p m e n t s i n a l l o f t h e s e r e a l m s w e r e v a s t l y u n e n c o u r a g i n g . A.s.W. p r e s e n t e d t h e m o s t i n t r a c t a b l e p r o b l e m s . D u r i n g t h e l a t e 1 950's t h e R u s s i a n f o r c e o f m i s s i l e b e a r i n g s u b m a r i n e s was n o t as f o r m i d a b l e as i t s A m e r i c a n c o u n t e r p a r t ; t h e v e s s e l s w e r e d i e s e l p o w e r e d , w h i l e t h e S.L^B.M.s a b o a r d them h a d t o b e f i r e d f r o m t h e s u r f a c e a n d f r o m a r a n g e o f 30 one t o f o u r h u n d r e d m i l e s . E v e n t h e n , t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s i n c o u n t e r i n g t h i s menace w e r e eno r m o u s , and t h e y p r o m i s e d t o 31 become g r e a t e r i n t h e f o l l o w i n g d e c a d e . E f f o r t s a t d e t e c -t i o n b y s o n a r w e r e h a m p e r e d b y t h e d e n s i t y o f t h e medium w h i c h i t h a d t o p e n e t r a t e a n d b y v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e t e m p e r a -t u r e o f t h i s medium, w h i l e o n c e c o n t a c t h a d b e e n made i t was i m p o s s i b l e t o d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r o r n o t a s u b m a r i n e was c a r r y i n g S.L.B.M.s as l o n g as i t was s u b m e r g e d . Once t h e s u b m a r i n e s u r f a c e d , o f c o u r s e , i n t e r c e p t i o n h a d t o b e i n s t a n t a n e o u s , o r i t w o u l d h a v e l a u n c h e d i t s m i s s i l e s . W i t h t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f i m p r o v e d S.L.B.M.s b y t h e U.S.S.R., t h e r a n g e o f t h e s e m i s s i l e s - a n d h e n c e t h e a r e a w h i c h t h e A.S.W. 67. f o r c e s h a d t o c o v e r - w o u l d be i n c r e a s e d , w h i l e t h e i r c a p a -b i l i t y f o r u n d e r w a t e r f i r i n g w o u l d e x a c e r b a t e t h e p r o b l e m o f d e t e c t i o n . The d i f f i c u l t i e s i n t h i s a r e a w o u l d be f u r -t h e r e n h a n c e d when t h e S o v i e t s d e v e l o p e d n u c l e a r p o w e r e d v e s s e l s t o c a r r y t h e s e m i s s i l e s , f o r t h e y w o u l d b e a b l e t o r e m a i n s u b m e r g e d o v e r a l o n g e r p e r i o d , a n d t h e i r i n c r e a s e d s p e e d w o u l d c o m p l i c a t e t h e p r o b l e m o f t r a c k i n g them:''after t h e y h a d b e e n d e t e c t e d . 32 P r o s p e c t s f o r c i v i l d e f e n s e w e r e a l s o b l e a k . P r o t e c t i o n f r o m t h e a c t u a l b l a s t o f a t h e r m o n u c l e a r e x p l o s -i o n was d i f f i c u l t i n t h e e x t r e m e . A s d i r e c t h i t s o n m a j o r c i t i e s w e r e l i k e l y i n a t h e r m o n u c l e a r e x c h a n g e , t h i s meant t h a t a h i g h p e r c e n t a g e o f A m e r i c a n i n d u s t r y w o u l d be d e s -t r o y e d . F u r t h e r m o r e , a l t h o u g h t h e r e m i g h t b e some h o p e o f s u r v i v a l f o r t h e p o p u l a t i o n i f i t c o u l d b e e v a c u a t e d t o f a l l o u t s h e l t e r s i n o u t l y i n g a r e a s , t h e r e w o u l d s t i l l be e x t e n s i v e m a t e r i a l a n d p s y c h o l o g i c a l o b s t a c l e s t o p o s t -a t t a c k r e c o v e r y ; s t o r e s o f f o o d a n d w a t e r m i g h t n o t l a s t u n t i l i t was s a f e t o emerge, t h e r e w o u l d be w i d e s p r e a d d e v a s t a t i o n o f t h e c o u n t r y s i d e , a n d , o f c r u c i a l i m p o r t a n c e , t h e m o r a l e o f t h e s u r v i v o r s m i g h t n o t s u r v i v e t h e s h o c k o f s u c h s u d d e n a nd m a s s i v e l o s s e s c o m b i n e d w i t h a d r a s -6 8 . 33 t i c a l l y c h a n g e d p h y s i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t . G r a v e as t h e s e d i f f i c u l t i e s may h a v e s e e n , t h e c r u c i a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n was t h e f a c t t h a t c i v i l d e f e n s e r e q u i r e d a h i g h d e g r e e o f p u b l i c c o - o p e r a t i o n f o r i t s s u c c e s s . The w i d e s p r e a d i n d i f f e r e n c e o f t h e A m e r i c a n p e o p l e t o t h i s , h o w e v e r , meant t h a t s u c h 34 c o - o p e r a t i o n was n o t l i k e l y t o b e f o r t h c o m i n g . A s was m e n t i o n e d e a r l i e r , a n e x t r e m e l y s o p h i s -t i c a t e d a n t i - a i r c r a f t s y s t e m was b e i n g e r e c t e d , b u t i t was b y no means p e r f e c t a n d , a s t h e "bomber gap" f a i l e d t o emerge a n d was s u p p l a n t e d b y a n a p p r e h e n d e d " m i s s i l e gap," i t was d i r e c t e d a g a i n s t w h a t was a t b e s t a s e c o n d a r y 35 t h r e a t . P r o t e c t i o n a g a i n s t t h e m a i n t h r e a t , t h e g r o w i n g m i s s i l e p ower o f t h e U.S.S.R., seemed f a r i n t h e f u t u r e . When t h e P r e s i d e n t r e f u s e d t o s p e n d t h e " p r e -p r o d u c t i o n f u n d s " v o t e d f o r N i k e - Z e u s , t h e P.S.A.C., t h e N a vy, and e v e n t h e A i r F o r c e h a d c o n c u r r e d i n t h i s d e c i s i o n . The r e a s o n , as S e c r e t a r y G a t e s t o l d a House s u b c o m m i t t e e , was t h a t t h e A.B.M. p r o g r a m was " l o a d e d w i t h e v e r y known 37 k i n d o f d i f f i c u l t y a n d p r o b l e m . " D r . G e o r g e K i s t i a k o w s k i , t h e n C h a i r m a n o f t h e P . S . A . C , h a s s i n c e t e s t i f i e d t h a t N i k e - Z e u s m i g h t h a v e b e e n a b l e t o i n t e r c e p t a few f i r s t -g e n e r a t i o n I.C.B.M.s, b u t t h a t i t w o u l d h a v e b e e n i n e f -36 6 9 . 3 8 f e c t i v e when f a c e d w i t h a s o p h i s t i c a t e d a t t a c k . B e c a u s e t h e a n t e n n a e o f t h e r a d a r w e r e s t e e r e d m e c h a n i c a l l y , i t c o u l d d e t e c t a n d t r a c k o n l y a r e l a t i v e l y l i m i t e d number o f m i s s i l e s a t one t i m e . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h i s , d e c o y s s u c h a s b a l l o o n s i n t h e s h a p e o f t h e r e - e n t r y v e h i c l e c o u l d be r e l e a s e d b y t h e a t t a c k i n g m i s s i l e . One m e t h o d o f d e a l i n g w i t h t h i s p r o b l e m was t o d e l a y l a u n c h i n g t h e A.B.M.s u n t i l r e - e n t r y , when a t m o s p h e r i c r e s i s t a n c e w o u l d p e r m i t d i s c r i m i n a -t i o n b e t w e e n t h e d e c o y a n d t h e h e a v i e r w a r h e a d . N i k e - Z e u s , u n f o r t u n a t e l y , d i d n o t l e n d i t s e l f t o s u c h t a c t i c s , f o r t h e s p e e d was o n l y o n e - q u a r t e r t h a t o f t h e i n c o m i n g r e - e n t r y 39 v e h i c l e . The o n l y r e m a i n i n g a l t e r n a t i v e was t o d e s t r o y t h e d e c o y s b y e x o a t m o s p h e r i c t h e r m o n u c l e a r e x p l o s i o n s , b u t t h e s e e x p l o s i o n s w o u l d a l s o h a v e b l a c k e d o u t t h e d e f e n d -i n g r a d a r . A l l t h i s made i t h i g h l y p r o b a b l e t h a t t h i s s y s t e m 40 w o u l d be o b s o l e t e b e f o r e i t was d e p l o y e d . B. EISENHOWER'S PERCEPTION OF THE DANGERS OF AN ARMS RACE AND THE IMPROBABILITY OF A NUCLEAR WAR A t t h e same t i m e , a l t h o u g h h e h a d s e e n some s m a l l m e r i t i n t h e c o u n t e r f o r c e a r g u m e n t s , t h e m a i n t h r u s t o f E i s e n h o w e r ' s p o l i t i c a l a n a l y s i s a l s o w o r k e d a g a i n s t them. 70. G e n e r a l W h i t e h a d s a i d , " I c a n n o t a g r e e t h a t t h e S o v i e t U n i o n i s t r y i n g t o d e t e r u s . D e t e r r e n c e . . . i s a o n e -41 s i d e d p r o b l e m - i t i s o u r s . " The c o r o l l a r y o f t h i s a r g u -ment was t h a t t h e c o u r s e o f S o v i e t D e f e n s e p o l i c y was d e -t e r m i n e d p r i m a r i l y b y t h e c o n t i n u i n g c o m m u n i s t u r g e t o d o m i n a t e t h e w o r l d , t h e t e c h n o l o g i c a l o p t i o n s o p e n t o t h e K r e m l i n , a n d l i m i t a t i o n s o n t h e r e s o u r c e s a v a i l a b l e ; a n i t y u n i l a t e r a l a t t e m p t s b y t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t o e n d t h e arms r a c e w o u l d o n l y e n c o u r a g e h e r o p p o n e n t s i n t h e i r q u e s t f o r 42 s t r a t e g i c a d v a n t a g e . E i s e n h o w e r , on t h e o t h e r h a n d , was i n c l i n e d t o v i e w t h e p r o b l e m o f d e t e r r e n c e a s a m u t u a l o n e . T h u s , when t h e p r e l i m i n a r y c o n v e r s a t i o n s o n a t e s t b a n t r e a t y showed s i g n s o f p r o g r e s s , he a n n o u n c e d t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s w o u l d s u s p e n d t e s t i n g o f n u c l e a r weapons 43 p r o v i d e d t h a t Moscow r e c i p r o c a t e d t h i s g e s t u r e . The u l t i m a t e d e a d l o c k i n t h e s e d i s c u s s i o n s , h e b e l i e v e d , was more a r e f l e c t i o n o f t h e R u s s i a n f e a r o f i n s p e c t i o n t h a n 44 o f a n u n a l t e r a b l e d e s i r e f o r n u c l e a r s u p e r i o r i t y . I t f o l l o w e d f r o m t h i s v i e w o f t h e enemy t h a t a n A m e r i c a n b i d f o r a c o u n t e r f o r c e c a p a b i l i t y m i g h t a c t u a l l y i n c r e a s e h i s p e r c e p t i o n o f t h r e a t a n d p r o v o k e a c o r r e s p o n d i n g e x -p a n s i o n , o f h i s own f o r c e s . The r e s u l t w o u l d t h e n b e i n -c r e a s e d e x p e n d i t u r e s o n n u c l e a r weapons w i t h o u t a n y i n -c r e a s e i n s e c u r i t y a n d , i n d e e d , w i t h p o s s i b l e s t r a t e g i c i n -s t a b i l i t y . Two o t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , t h o u g h , w e r e more c e n t r a l t o h i s t h i n k i n g . I n s p i t e o f h i s r e c o g n i t i o n t h a t t h e r e was a " r e m o t e " p o s s i b i l i t y o f a d i s a s t r o u s c e n t r a l w a r , he s t a t e d t h a t h i s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n "came e a r l y t o t h e c o n c l u s -i o n t h a t t h e S o v i e t s w o u l d n o t , s a v e u n d e r t h e m o s t e x t r e m e p r o v o c a t i o n , r i s k a g l o b a l n u c l e a r w a r . T h e y m i g h t u n d e r -t a k e , a s i n t h e p a s t , p r o b e s t h a t w o u l d a l a r m p o p u l a t i o n s a n d some g o v e r n m e n t s , b u t w o u l d n e v e r c a r r y s u c h a c t i v i -t i e s t o t h e p o i n t w h e r e a l l - o u t r e t a l i a t i o n w o u l d b e t h e 45 o n l y r e s p o n s e a s e l f - r e s p e c t i n g n a t i o n c o u l d t a k e . " M o r e o v e r , he a l s o b e l i e v e d t h a t " C o m m u n i s t s do l i t t l e o n i m p u l s e ; r a t h e r t h e i r a g g r e s s i v e moves a r e i n v a r i a b l y t h e 46 r e s u l t o f d e l i b e r a t e d e c i s i o n . " T h u s , d u r i n g t h e S u e z c r i s i s t h e U.S.S.R. h a d e s c h e w e d t h r e a t s o f n u c l e a r r e -t a l i a t i o n a n d o f i n t e r v e n t i o n b y " v o l u n t e e r s " u n t i l i t h a d become c l e a r t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s h e r s e l f o p p o s e d t h e 47 a c t i o n s o f B r i t a i n a n d F r a n c e i n E g y p t . S i m i l a r l y , d u r i n g t h e B e r l i n c r i s i s o f 1 9 5 8 - 1 9 5 9 , K h r u s h c h e v h a d r e l i e d p r i -m a r i l y o n a p o l i t i c a l t h r e a t - a s e p a r a t e t r e a t y w i t h E a s t ' Germany - r a t h e r t h a n o n d i r e c t t h r e a t s o f m i l i t a r y a c t i o n o r b l o c k a d e . I t seemed t o E i s e n h o w e r , t h e n , t h a t t h e R u s s i a n s d i d n o t f e e l t h a t e x p a n s i o n o f t h e i r i n f l u e n c e was w o r t h a w o r l d w a r , a n d t h a t t h e y w o u l d be g u i d e d b y t h i s r a t i o n a l c a l c u l a t i o n o f c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s e v e n i n c r i s i s s i t u a t i o n s . The t h r e a t o f c o u n t e r v a l u e r e t a l i a t i o n a l o n e , t h e n , w o u l d p r o v i d e a r e a s o n a b l y r e l i a b l e s a f e g u a r d f o r A m e r i c a n s e c u r i t y ; t h e i n c r e a s e d w i l l i n g n e s s t o s t r i k e f i r s t i n h e r e n t i n a c o u n t e r f o r c e s t r a t e g y m i g h t w e l l c o n s t i t u t e t h e "most e x -t r e m e p r o v o c a t i o n " w h i c h w o u l d b r i n g o n a n u c l e a r c a t a s -t r o p h e . I n v i e w o f t h i s , h e was c o n v i n c e d t h a t r e a f f i r m a -t i o n o f t h e A m e r i c a n w i l l t o r e s i s t , i n s t e a d o f v a s t i n -c r e a s e s i n A m e r i c a n s t r a t e g i c p o w e r , w o u l d r e - e s t a b l i s h t h e c r e d i b i l i t y o f t h e d e t e r r e n t i n b o t h enemy a n d a l l i e d 49 e y e s . I I I . THE ROLE OF DOMESTIC FACTORS I N BRINGING ABOUT  A PAR T I A L SHIFT B e t w e e n 1957 a n d t h e b e g i n n i n g o f 1 9 6 0 , t h i s l i n e o f r e a s o n i n g a n d , t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t , h i s e c o n o m y - m i n d e d n e s s , c a u s e d t h e P r e s i d e n t t o j o i n w i t h Army a n d N a v y a d v o c a t e s o f a c o u n t e r v a l u e s t r a t e g y i n o p p o s i n g t h e A i r F o r c e ' s 73. c o u n t e r f o r c e d o c t r i n e s . I f he h a d h a d h i s own way, i t seems p r o b a b l e t h a t he w o u l d h a v e c o n t i n u e d i n t h i s c o u r s e i n d e f i n i t e l y , f o r he h a d w r i t t e n : Why s o much o f o u r p o p u l a c e h a s a l w a y s seemed t o f e e l t h a t o u r d e f e n s e w o u l d b e i m m e d i a t e l y i m p r o v e d b y a n i n c r e a s e o f a b i l l i o n d o l l a r s o r s o , o r b y t h e q u i c k c a l l - u p o f a h u n d r e d t h o u s a n d g r o u n d t r o o p s , h a s a l w a y s b e e n b e y o n d my k e n . I d e t e r m i n e d t h a t t h i s c r i s i s ( o v e r B e r l i n ) s h o u l d n o t a f f e c t o u r l o n g - r a n g e p l a n s f o r a s s u r i n g t h e d e f e n s e o f A m e r i c a w i t h o u t w a s t e . I n d e e d , i t was a l w a y s my c o n v i c t i o n t h a t one p u r p o s e o f K h r u s h c h e v ' s m a n u f a c t u r e d c r i s i s was t o f r i g h t e n f r e e p o p u l a t i o n s a n d g o v e r n -ments i g j o u n n e c e s s a r y a n d d e b i l i t a t i n g s p e n d i n g s p r e e s . T h i s p o s i t i o n , h o w e v e r , r a n c o u n t e r t o two o f t h e m o s t p o w e r f u l c u r r e n t s i n r e c e n t A m e r i c a n h i s t o r y . A n a t u r a l d e s i r e f o r s e l f - p r e s e r v a t i o n , i t was t r u e , made i t d i f f i c u l t t o a c c e p t a l m o s t t o t a l v u l n e r -a b i l i t y i n t h e t h e r m o n u c l e a r a g e . Y e t more i m p o r t a n t , t h e A m e r i c a n s ' h i s t o r i c a l e x p e r i e n c e h a d i l l p r e p a r e d t h e m f o r t h i s d e v e l o p m e n t . H a v i n g l o n g l i v e d i n r e l a t i v e s a f e t y , o r a t l e a s t i n c i r c u m s t a n c e s w h i c h a s s u r e d t h e m o f v i c t o r y i f h o s t i l i t i e s b r o k e o u t , t h e y h a d come t o assume t h a t t h i s was a n a t u r a l c o n d i t i o n f o r t h e i r c o u n t r y . D u r i n g t h e f i r s t p o s t w a r d e c a d e , t h i s a s s u m p t i o n h a d l e d t h e m t o c o n s i s t e n t l y u n d e r e s t i m a t e t h e i r enemy, t o assume 74. t h a t t h e y c o u l d r e m a i n s u p e r i o r w i t h r e l a t i v e e a s e . A s was s e e n e a r l i e r , h o w e v e r , d e v e l o p m e n t s i n t h e m i d - 1 9 5 0 ' s h a d d i s s i p a t e d t h i s n o t i o n . T h e n, l i k e a man who h a s n e v e r b e e n s i c k i n h i s l i f e a n d who i s s u d d e n l y l a i d l o w b y i l l n e s s , t h e y o v e r - r e a c t e d . P o p u l a r f e a r s o f a "bomber gap" o r a " m i s s i l e gap" w e r e s p a r k e d b y t h e e x p e r t s ' - o r a t l e a s t some e x p e r t s ' - p r o p h e c i e s o f t h e s e " g a p s , " b u t t h e g r o u n d h a d b e e n p r e p a r e d i n a d v a n c e b y t h e assump-t i o n t h a t t h e r e c o u l d be no s t r a t e g i c m i d d l e p a t h ; i f one was n o t u n q u e s t i o n a b l y " s u p e r i o r , " t h e n one was d a n g e r o u s l y " i n f e r i o r . " A s R e p r e s e n t a t i v e F l o o d p u t i t i n 1 9 6 0 : Y o u s e e , t h e p u b l i c g o e s b a c k 15 y e a r s . R u s s i a was d e v a s t a t e d : t h e r e w e r e 20 m i l l i o n c a s u a l t i e s , h e r p h y s i c a l p l a n t was d e s t r o y e d . . . .We h a d t h e g r e a t e s t A i r F o r c e i n t h e w o r l d , t h e g r e a t e s t Army i n t h e w o r l d , we h a d s u b m a r i n e s r u n n i n g o u t o f o u r e a r s . T h e i r army was s h o t t o p i e c e s . T h e y h a d no a i r f o r c e w o r t h y o f t h e name c o m p a r e d t o o u r s ; t h e y h a d a f e w c o a s t a l s u b m a r i n e s b u t n o t h i n g c o m p a r e d t o o u r s . We h a d t h e A bomb; we h a d t h e g r e a t e s t p r o d u c t i o n p l a n t i n t h e w o r l d . . . now, when y o u ( S e c r e t a r y G a t e s ) go a r o u n d s a y i n g " W e l l , we a r e o n l y a l i t t l e b i t b e h i n d t h e m , 1 t h a t i s l i k e b e i n g a l i t t l e b i t p r e g n a n t . ^ A p p r e h e n s i o n o v e r t h e " p r e g n a n c y , " t o c o n t i n u e F l o o d ' s m e t a p h o r , was m a n i f e s t i n f e a r s f o r t h e s a f e t y o f t h e A m e r i c a n c o u n t e r v a l u e c a p a b i l i t y . F l o o d a n d S e n a t o r K e n n e d y , h o w e v e r , i n d i c a t e d a f u r t h e r c o n c e r n o b l i q u e l y when t h e y s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e S o v i e t s ' w i l l i n g n e s s t o s u f f e r 54 . damage m i g h t be g r e a t e r t h a n t h a t o f t h e A m e r i c a n s . E i s e n h o w e r was more f o r t h r i g h t i n r e t r o s p e c t when h e . w r o t e t h a t " S p u t n i k h a d r e v e a l e d t h e p s y c h o l o g i c a l v u l n e r a b i l i t y 55 o f o u r p e o p l e . " W i t h a n u c l e a r s w o r d o f D a m o c l e s h a n g i n g o v e r them, t h e A m e r i c a n p e o p l e i n s t i n c t i v e l y s o u g h t t h e s h e l t e r o f a t l e a s t a p a r t i a l r e t u r n t o " s u p e r i o r i t y , " a n d , e q u a l l y i n s t i n c t i v e l y , b e l i e v e d t h a t t h i s c o u l d be a c h i e v e d i f o n l y s u f f i c i e n t "know-how" a n d r e s o u r c e s w e r e c h a n n e l l e d i n t o t h i s e f f o r t . C l o s e l y l i n k e d t o t h i s , a n o t h e r , more r e c e n t , c u r r e n t a l s o l e d many A m e r i c a n s t o a s i m i l a r c o n c l u s i o n . W i t h t h e g r o w t h o f l i b e r a l i n t e r n a t i o n a l i s m i n t h e i r c o u n t r y , t h e p e o p l e o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s h a d come t o i d e n -t i f y t h e i r i n t e r e s t s w i t h a b r o a d e r " n a t u r a l h a r m o n y o f i n t e r e s t s " b e t w e e n n a t i o n s . I n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n f l i c t , p a r -t i c u l a r l y when i t l e d t o f r u s t r a t i o n o f t h e i r a s p i r a t i o n s , was c o n s e q u e n t l y s e e n t o be a p r o d u c t o f t h e m a c h i n a t i o n s o f e v i l men. T h i s i n t u r n c a u s e d t h e A m e r i c a n p e o p l e t o v i e w d e f e n s e o f t h e i r own i n t e r e s t s a s p a r t o f a m o r a l c r u s a d e o f e n l i g h t e n m e n t a g a i n s t d a r k n e s s , p r i n c i p l e 7 6 . a g a i n s t s e l f - s e e k i n g . The i n f l u e n c e o f t h i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c was e s p e c i a l l y e v i d e n t when t h e y f o u n d t h e m s e l v e s i n c o n -f l i c t w i t h a c u l t u r a l l y b a c k w a r d n a t i o n whose l e a d e r s w e r e s u p p o s e d t o be f a n a t i c a l l y c o m m i t t e d t o t h e c a u s e o f Com-munism; a s G e o r g e K e n n a n p o i n t e d o u t , t h e y t e n d e d t o o v e r -r e a c t t o t h i s t h r e a t , e x a g g e r a t i n g b o t h t h e a d v e n t u r o u s -56 n e s s a n d t h e r i g i d i t y o f S o v i e t f o r e i g n p o l i c y . T h e s e two s t r a i n s , r e i n f o r c e d b y K h r u s h c h e v ' s a p p a r e n t b e l l i g e r e n c e , c o n f l i c t e d w i t h E i s e n h o w e r ' s m i n i -m a l i s t t e n d e n c i e s a n d made many A m e r i c a n s r e c e p t i v e t o t h e A i r F o r c e a p p e a l s f o r e x p a n d e d s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s . A d m i t t e d l y , i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t a l a r g e p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e m w o u l d h a v e a g r e e d w i t h t h e c o n c l u s i o n o f a H o use C o m m i t t e e i n 1960 t h a t " t o e f f e c t i v e l y d e t e r a w o u l d - b e a g g r e s s o r we s h o u l d m a i n t a i n o u r armed f o r c e s i n s u c h a way . . . t h a t , s h o u l d i t e v e r become o b v i o u s t h a t a n a t t a c k u p o n us o r o u r a l l i e s i s i m m i n e n t we c a n l a u n c h a n a t t a c k b e f o r e t h e 57 a g g r e s s o r h a s h i t us o r o u r a l l i e s . " I t i s y e t more i m p r o b a b l e t h a t t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c , o r e v e n members o f t h e armed s e r v i c e s c o m m i t t e e s i n C o n g r e s s , u n d e r s t o o d t h e i n t r i c a c i e s o f t h e d e b a t e b e t w e e n t h e c o u n t e r f o r c e 58 and c o u n t e r v a l u e s c h o o l s . D e s p i t e a l l t h i s , h o w e v e r , i t was g e n e r a l l y u n d e r s t o o d t h a t t h e A i r F o r c e s t o o d f o r " s u p e r i o r i t y , " a p o s i t i o n f a r more i n t u n e w i t h t h e t e m p e r o f A m e r i c a n p u b l i c o p i n i o n t h a n E i s e n h o w e r ' s e m p h a s i s on " s u f f i c i e n c y . " I n t h e f i n a l a n a l y s i s , t h e n , t h e d o m e s t i c d e b a t e o v e r t h e " m i s s i l e gap" w e n t b e y o n d a s i m p l e f e a r t h a t R u s s i a n s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s m i g h t o u t n u m b e r t h o s e o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s ; i t was e s s e n t i a l l y a d e b a t e , a l b e i t a v a g u e l y . d e f i n e d one a t t h e p o p u l a r l e v e l , o v e r t h e a p p r o p r i a t e o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e s e f o r c e s . U n w i l l i n g a s h e may h a v e b e e n t o a d m i t i t , t h e P r e s i d e n t r e a l i z e d t h a t t h e t i d e o f t h i s 59 d e b a t e was r u n n i n g a g a i n s t h i m . T h i s , o f c o u r s e , w o u l d c o n s t i t u t e a s e r i o u s p o l i t i c a l l i a b i l i t y i n t h e 1960 e l e c t i o n s , b u t t h e r e was a l s o a n o t h e r , more s e r i o u s , i m -p l i c a t i o n . The P r e s i d e n t c o u l d be r e a s o n a b l y c e r t a i n t h a t t h e " m i s s i l e gap" c o n t r o v e r s y w o u l d n o t c a u s e t h e R u s s i a n s t o u n d e r e s t i m a t e t h e p h y s i c a l c a p a c i t y o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t o w r e a k d e s t r u c t i o n u p o n them; t h e i r i n t e l l i g e n c e n e t w o r k w o u l d s e e t o t h i s . I t was q u i t e p o s s i b l e , t h o u g h , t h a t t h i s c o n t r o v e r s y w o u l d p e r p e t u a t e d o u b t s i n t h e i r m i n d s , a n d i n t h o s e o f t h e a l l i e s o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , a b o u t h e r 78. d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o a c t u a l l y u s e t h i s c a p a c i t y . I n c o n s e q u e n c e , ' no m a t t e r how o f t e n he r e a f f i r m e d t h e A m e r i c a n w i l l t o r e s i s t , t h e P r e s i d e n t ' s e f f o r t s t o s t r e n g t h e n t h e c r e d i b i l i t y o f t h e A m e r i c a n d e t e r r e n t w e r e u n d e r m i n e d b y d o m e s t i c d i s c o r d o n 60 t h e a d e q u a c y o f t h e programmed r e t a l i a t o r y f o r c e s . I V . COERCIVE DETERRENCE I N I T I A L L Y DEFINED T h i s c o n s i d e r a t i o n f i n a l l y l e d t h e & d m i n i s t r a t i i o n t o a b a n d o n i t s p u r e l y c o u n t e r v a l u e p o l i c y , t h o u g h i t s t i l l r e f u s e d t o a c c e p t c o u n t e r f o r c e d o c t r i n e i n i t s e n t i r e t y . A c o m p r o m i s e s t r a t e g y , c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e , was t e n t a t i v e l y d e f i n e d b y S e c r e t a r y G a t e s i n J a n u a r y , 1960. D u r i n g t e s t i m -o n y w h i c h he a c k n o w l e d g e d t o be a r e p l y t o c u r r e n t f e a r s o v e r t h e " m i s s i l e gap," he t o l d a H o use s u b c o m m i t t e e t h a t "we a r e a d j u s t i n g o u r p o w e r t o a c o u n t e r f o r c e t h e o r y " a n d t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s was no l o n g e r p l a n n i n g o n " j u s t b o m b i n g R u s s i a f o r r e t a l i a t o r y p u r p o s e s . " ^ I n s a y i n g t h i s , h e a p p a r e n t l y e n v i s a g e d t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a p r e - e m p t i v e a t t a c k o n S o v i e t s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s w h i c h w o u l d l i m i t damage t o h i s c o u n t r y a n d w h i c h , i n c o m b i n a t i o n w i t h " a t t a c k s o n i n d u s t r i a l c e n t e r s a n d t h i n g s o f t h a t c h a r a c t e r , " m i g h t a l s o c o e r c e t h e K r e m l i n i n t o e n d i n g h o s t i l i t i e s o n A m e r i c a n 79. t e r m s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , h i s h o p e s f o r s u c h a v i c t o r y , o r i n d e e d f o r s u r v i v a l , i n a t h e r m o n u c l e a r c o n f l i c t w e r e n o t v e r y h i g h , f o r he a d m i t t e d : What we a c t u a l l y do i n t h i s s o r t o f p e r i o d (a t h e r m o -n u c l e a r w a r ) i n a r g a l o p e r a t i o n i s s o m e t h i n g e l s e . I do know f o r s u r e . A t t h e same t i m e , he r e c o g n i z e d t h a t t h e a p p e a r a n c e , i f n o t t h e r e a l i t y o f a c o u n t e r f o r c e c a p a b i l i t y m i g h t w e l l r e n d e r a v i t a l s e r v i c e b y i n c r e a s i n g t h e . c r e d i b i l i t y o f t h e A m e r i c a n d e t e r r e n t : The v a l i d i t y o f o u r d e t e r r e n t m u s t be o f s u c h a c h a r a c t e r - am I d o i n g a l l r i g h t o n t h i s , G e n e r a l T w i n i n g ? - t h a t a n gnemy w i l l b e l i e v e h i s m i l i t a r y w i l l be d e v a s t a t e d . I n r e - s t a t i n g t h e o v e r r i d i n g i m p o r t a n c e o f d e t e r r -e n c e , a n d i n u n i t i n g t h i s w i t h a c o n t e n t i o n t h a t t h e m a r g i n a l c o u n t e r f o r c e c a p a b i l i t i e s s t i l l a t t a i n a b l e m i g h t a d d t o t h e d e t e r r e n t a n d o f f e r some s l i g h t p r o t e c t i o n i f i t b r o k e down, G a t e s h a d b r o a d l y d e f i n e d w h a t was t o be o f f i c i a l A m e r i c a n s t r a t e g i c d o c t r i n e u n t i l t h e m i d - 1 9 6 0 " s . M o r e -o v e r , he h a d a l s o . i n i t i a t e d t h e s p e c i f i c p l a n n i n g r e q u i r e d t o o p e r a t i o n a l i z e t h i s d o c t r i n e when, i n l a t e A u g u s t , 1960, he h a d c r e a t e d a t r i - s e r v i c e c o m m i t t e e a n d c h a r g e d i t w i t h d e v e l o p i n g a c o - o r d i n a t e d l i s t o f t a r g e t s f o r 80. American s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s . The i n c r e a s e d s i z e of t h i s l i s t over p r e v i o u s ones was i n l a r g e measure a r e f l e c t i o n o f 65 i t s i n c l u s i o n of m i l i t a r y t a r g e t s . F i n a l l y , a t the c l o s e of the Eisenhower A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , work had begun on pro-v i s i o n o f f a c i l i t i e s s u f f i c i e n t t o produce j u s t under a thousand Minutemen, the m i s s i l e s b e s t s u i t e d f o r a t t a c k s 66 on these t a r g e t s . D e s p i t e these s i g n s o f movement, however, the E i s e n -hower a d m i n i s t r a t i o n ' s commitment t o c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e , was s t i l l p r e c a r i o u s . Gates' e n u n c i a t i o n o f t h i s d o c t r i n e , a f t e r a l l , was coupled w i t h an admission t h a t the U.S.S.R. might s t i l l have a short-range numerical advantage i n I.C. B.M.s and a statement t h a t f u t u r e defense expenditures 67 should not exceed approximately f o r t y - o n e b i l l i o n d o l l a r s . Moreover, c l o s e l y l i n k e d t o t h i s l a t t e r f a c t o r , t h e r e had been no d e c i s i o n on the s p e c i f i c number o f Minutemen which would a c t u a l l y be deployed, and i t was by no means c e r t a i n t h a t the i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t a l l o c a t e d f o r p r o d u c t i o n o f 68 these m i s s i l e s would be f u l l y e x p l o i t e d . Vigorous and determined e f f o r t s t o l e n d substance t o the new s t r a t e g i c form came o n l y w i t h the advent o f Kennedy and McNamara. 8 1 . INTIMATIONS OF NEO-MAXIMALISM: KENNEDY AND  McNAMARA ON THE EVE OF POWER, 1 9 6 0 - 1 9 6 1 The l i n g e r i n g n e o - m i n i m a l i s m o f t h e E i s e n h o w e r A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , a t r a i t w h i c h h a d r e p e a t e d l y c a u s e d i t s e r i o u s e m b a r r a s s m e n t i n d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c s , d i f f e r e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y f r o m t h e s p i r i t o f i t s s u c c e s s o r . D e s p i t e a v e r b a l commitment t o " n e g o t i a t i o n f r o m s t r e n g t h , " w i t h a l l i t s m a x i m a l i s t o v e r t o n e s , E i s e n h o w e r a n d h i s l i e u t e n -a n t s h a d i n f a c t p u r s u e d a l e s s a m b i t i o u s p o l i c y o f " c o n -t a i n m e n t " i n t h e r e a l m s o f b o t h d e f e n s e a n d f o r e i g n a f f a i r s . " * " T h u s , w h i l e t h e y s o u g h t t o p r e v e n t t h e R u s s i a n s f r o m a c h i e v i n g a c o u n t e r f o r c e c a p a b i l i t y i n t h e s t r a t e g i c arms r a c e a n d t o h a l t t h e e x p a n s i o n o f S o v i e t p o l i t i c a l i n f l u e n c e , t h e i r e f f o r t s t o a c t u a l l y e r a d i c a t e t h e s e p r o -b l e m s w e r e g e n e r a l l y f a l t e r i n g a n d i n f r e q u e n t . I n c o n t r a s t t o t h i s , a. more a c t i v i s t s p i r i t , a s p i r i t w h i c h was more i n t u n e w i t h t h e t e m p e r o f t h e A m e r i c a n p e o p l e , p e r v a d e d t h e K e n n e d y A d m i n i s t r a t i o n . A l t h o u g h i t r e c o g n i z e d t h a t no e n d t o t h e c o l d w a r was i n s i g h t , i t b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e s c o p e a n d a d v e n t u r o u s n e s s o f Moscow's f o r e i g n p o l i c y c o u l d b e r e d u c e d ; a l t h o u g h i t r e a l i z e d t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s w o u l d a l w a y s h a v e t h e 8 2 . t h r e a t o f n u c l e a r d e v a s t a t i o n h a n g i n g o v e r h e r , i t a l s o b e -l i e v e d t h a t t h i s v u l n e r a b i l i t y c o u l d b e a l l e v i a t e d a n d t h a t t h e arms r a c e m i g h t e v e n t u a l l y be d e c e l e r a t e d . T r a n s -l a t e d i n t o n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y , t h i s l e d t o t h e a s c e n d a n c e o f c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e f o r a l m o s t two y e a r s f o l l o w i n g K e n n e d y ' s i n a u g u r a t i o n . McNamara, who h a d i n i t i a l l y i n -c l i n e d t o w a r d t h e s p i r i t p r e v a i l i n g t h r o u g h o u t t h e E i s e n -h o w e r y e a r s , was s o o n c o n v e r t e d i n l a r g e m e a s u r e t o t h i s n e w e r and more d y n a m i c o u t l o o k . C o n s e q u e n t l y , w h i l e h e was e v e n more s t e a d f a s t t h a n K e n n e d y i n h i s r e f u s a l t o f u l l y a c c e p t t h e e x t r e m e m a x i m a l i s m o f t h e A i r F o r c e , he a l s o became an a g g r e s s i v e and d y n a m i c a r c h i t e c t o f c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e d u r i n g h i s f i r s t t w e n t y months as S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e . I . KENNEDY A. CANDIDATE KENNEDY AND THE " M I S S I L E GAP" R o g e r H i l s m a n h a s s u g g e s t e d t h a t P r e s i d e n t K e n n e d y came t o o f f i c e w i t h " v e r y w e l l d e v e l o p e d i d e a s a b o u t 2 s t r a t e g i c m a t t e r s . " V i c t o r L a s k y , on t h e o t h e r h a n d , h a s a r g u e d t h a t h i s a p p a r e n t e x p e r t i s e was s i m p l y a f a c a d e f o r 8 3 . p o l i t i c a l c h i c a n e r y i n t h a t he h a d d e l i b e r a t e l y r a i s e d f e a r s o f a " m i s s i l e gap" i n a b i d t o g a i n p o p u l a r s u p p o r t 3 f o r h i s p r e s i d e n t i a l c a m p a i g n . C l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h i s , I . F. S t o n e c o n t e n d e d t h a t c a n d i d a t e K e n n e d y ' s p o s i t i o n o n t h i s m a t t e r was d e t e r m i n e d b y p r o m i s e s o f more d e f e n s e c o n t r a c t s t o A m e r i c a n i n d u s t r y i n r e t u r n f o r t h e f u n d s 4 n e c e s s a r y f o r v i c t o r y i n t h i s c a m p a i g n . None o f t h e s e a s s e r t i o n s , h o w e v e r , i s e n t i r e l y v a l i d . C a n d i d a t e K e n n e d y 1 s m o s t d e t a i l e d a n d s y s t e m a t i c e x p o s i t i o n o n n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y was p r e s e n t e d i n t h e S e n a t e o n A u g u s t 14, 1958, when h e c h a r g e d : We a r e r a p i d l y a p p r o a c h i n g t h e d a n g e r o u s p e r i o d w h i c h G e n e r a l G a v i n a n d o t h e r s h a v e c a l l e d t h e 'gap* o r t h e ' m i s s i l e - l a g p e r i o d ' - a p e r i o d i n t h e w o r d s o f G e n e r a l G a v i n 1 i n w h i c h o u r own o f f e n -s i v e a n d d e f e n s i v e m i s s i l e c a p a b i l i t i e s w i l l l a g s o f a r b e h i n d t h o s e o f t h e S o v i e t s a s t o p l a c e us i n a p o s i t i o n o f g r e a t p e r i l . ' The m o s t c r i t i c a l y e a r s o f t h e gap w o u l d a p p e a r t o be 1 9 6 0 - 1 9 6 4 . 5 W i t h t h e g r o w t h o f S o v i e t o f f e n s i v e p o w e r , a n d o f S o v i e t c a p a b i l i t i e s f o r a c t i v e a n d p a s s i v e d e f e n s e , t h e American c o u n t e r v a l u e c a p a b i l i t y m i g h t be s e v e r e l y 6 d e g r a d e d . C o n s e q u e n t l y , " t h e d e t e r r e n t r a t i o ( a p p a r e n t l y t h e r e l a t i v e p o t e n c y o f t h e s u p e r p o w e r s ' d e t e r r e n t s ) 84 d u r i n g 1960-1964 w i l l i n a l l l i k e l i h o o d be w e i g h t e d v e r y 7 h e a v i l y a g a i n s t u s . " F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e R u s s i a n s m i g h t w e l l h a v e a l e a d - t i m e o f o n l y f i v e y e a r s , c o m p a r e d t o t e n g f o r t h e A m e r i c a n s . I n v i e w o f t h i s , a n d i n v i e w o f t h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t t h e U.S.S.R. w o u l d c o n t i n u e h e r v i g o r o u s r e s e a r c h a n d d e v e l o p m e n t p r o g r a m , t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s m i g h t e x p e r i e n c e t h e most e x t r e m e d i f f i c u l t y i n o v e r t a k i n g h e r e v e n a f t e r 1 9 6 4 . T h e s e d e v e l o p m e n t s , he a s s e r t e d , m i g h t 9 o p e n "a new s h o r t c u t t o w o r l d d o m i n a t i o n " f o r t h e K r e m l i n . K e n n e d y ' s p r e s c r i p t i o n f o r t h i s p r o b l e m was " t o k e e p t h e d e t e r r e n t r a t i o f r o m s h i f t i n g s t i l l f a r t h e r t o t h e Red s i d e a n d t o l e s s e n t h e i r a d v a n t a g e , i f p o s s i b l e . " " ' " ^ To t h i s e n d , he c a l l e d f o r a n i n c r e a s e i n t h e s t o r e o f t a n k e r s a n d a i r - t o - s u r f a c e m i s s i l e s f o r t h e S.A.C. bomber f o r c e , a n d f o r a c c e l e r a t i o n o f t h e A m e r i c a n m i s s i l e a n d a n t i - m i s s i l e p r o g r a m s . A l t h o u g h h e was n o t v e r y c l e a r o n t h i s p o i n t , t h e m a i n t h r u s t o f h i s a r g u m e n t s i n d i c a t e s t h a t maximum p r o t e c t i o n f o r t h e A m e r i c a n c o u n t e r v a l u e c a p a b i l i t y was t o be t h e p r i n c i p a l o b j e c t i v e o f t h e s e m e a s u r e s . N e v e r -t h e l e s s , t h e c o n c e p t o f " d e t e r r e n t r a t i o s , " a n d t h e c o n c e r n 8 5 . w i t h l e s s e n i n g a n y S o v i e t a d v a n t a g e , a l s o p o i n t e d t o a n o t h e r , a l b e i t i m p e r f e c t l y f o r m u l a t e d , theme. K e n n e d y c o n c e i v e d o f t h e " m i s s i l e gap," n o t o n l y i n t e r m s o f a p o s s i b l e d i s p a r i t y i n a b s o l u t e numbers b e t w e e n A m e r i c a n a n d R u s s i a n m i s s i l e f o r c e s , b u t a l s o i n t e r m s o f t h e c o n t r a s t b e t w e e n t h e r e l a t i v e i n v u l n e r a b i l i t y o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i n t h e f i r s t p o s t w a r d e c a d e a n d h e r i n -c r e a s i n g v u l n e r a b i l i t y i n t h e s e c o n d . W i t h t h i s p r o b l e m i n m i n d , he s u g g e s t e d t h a t w i l l i n g n e s s t o a c c e p t damage was a n i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e i n t h e c a l c u l u s o f d e t e r r e n c e a n d t h a t e v e n t h e menace o f a S o v i e t c o u n t e r v a l u e c a p a c i t y m i g h t w e a k e n t h e w i l l o f t h e A m e r i c a n p e o p l e t o r e s i s t 12 a w i d e v a r i e t y o f t h r e a t s t o t h e i r v i t a l i n t e r e s t s . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h i s , h i s a n a l y s i s i n d i c a t e d t h a t a c o u n t e r v a l u e c a p a b i l i t y a l o n e m i g h t a l s o be i n a d e q u a t e i n a n o t h e r s e n s e ; i t o f f e r e d no p r o t e c t i o n i f t h e d e t e r r -e n t b r o k e down. As K e n n e d y p o i n t e d o u t , e v e n i f s u c h a c a p a b i l i t y u s u a l l y c o n s t i t u t e d a c r e d i b l e d e t e r r e n t , a c e n t r a l w a r c o u l d b r e a k o u t b e c a u s e t h e R u s s i a n l e a d e r s , l i k e H i t l e r , a c t e d i r r a t i o n a l l y o r b e c a u s e t h e y p a n i c k e d . . 13 i n a c r i s i s . Of y e t g r e a t e r d a n g e r : S u r e l y we r e a l i z e t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f s e r i o u s m i s c a l c u l a t i o n , o f w a r b y i n a d v e r t e n c e , o f h a v i n g 86. b o t h s i d e s c a u g h t i n a c o u r s e w h i c h w o u l d l e a d t o a n a l l - o u t w a r w h i c h n e i t h e r o r i g i n a l l y c o n -t e m p l a t e d , o f t h e c a l l i n g o f a b l u f f o r o f t h e s u d d e n s p r e a d i n g o f w a r , a r e v e r y r e a l p o s s i b i l -i t i e s , i f we b u t r e c a l l t h e S o v i e t U n i o n ' s m i s -c a l c u l a t i o n s i n K o r e a i n 1950, o u r own m i s c a l -c u l a t i o n s o f t h e R e d C h i n e s e r e a c t i o n i n 1 9 5 1 , o u r n e a r i n t e r v e n t i o n i n D i e n b i e n p h u i n 1954, t h e S o v i e t t h r e a t s o f r o c k e t w a r a t t h e t i m e o f t h e S u e z i n -v a s i o n i n 1956 . . . . We know f u l l w e l l t h e l a c k o f c o m m u n i c a t i o n s b e t w e e n o u r s e l v e s a n d o u r a d v e r -s a r i e s , t h e m u t u a l s u s p i c i o n a n d h o s t i l i t y , t h e i n c r e a s e d r i s k s t a k e n ^ y t h e S o v i e t s a s t h e i r s t r i k i n g p o w e r g r o w s . The p o s s i b i l i t y o f m i s p e r c e p t i o n b y one s i d e o r t h e o t h e r , t h e n , was a c o n s t a n t t h r e a t t o p e a c e . Moscow's e u p h o r i a a f t e r S p u t n i k c o u l d o n l y e n h a n c e t h i s t h r e a t . E v e n t h o u g h K e n n e d y a c k n o w l e d g e d t h a t h i s c o u n t r y c o u l d n e v e r f u l l y r e g a i n h e r v a n i s h e d s u p r e m a c y , t h e s e a r g u m e n t s p o i n t e d t o t h e n e c e s s i t y f o r some k i n d o f s t r a t e g i c s u p e r i o r i t y o v e r t h e U.S.S.R, r a t h e r t h a n mere p a r i t y w i t h h e r ; h i s e m p h a s i s o n t h e s u p p o s e d l y p e r n i c i o u s i n f l u e n c e o f E i s e n h o w e r ' s economy - m i n d e d n e s s 15 p o i n t e d t o t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a c h i e v i n g t h i s g o a l . T h e s e c o n c l u s i o n s , h o w e v e r , w e r e d e v e l o p e d n e i t h e r e x -p l i c i t l y n o r a t l e n g t h , a n d t h e r e was l i t t l e s p e c i f i c d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s c o u l d a t t a i n s t r a t e g i c s u p e r i o r i t y o r o f t h e p r e c i s e means b y w h i c h s h e c o u l d do s o . C o n s e q u e n t l y , H i l s m a n " s a s s e r t i o n s 87. t o t h e c o n t r a r y , i t w o u l d be a n e x a g g e r a t i o n t o s u g g e s t t h a t K e n n e d y ' s p r e - e l e c t i o n p r o n o u n c e m e n t s c o n s t i t u t e d a " w e l l d e v e l o p e d " p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e . N a t u r a l l y , i t was i m p o l i t i c f o r a man w i t h p r e s i d e n -t i a l a s p i r a t i o n s , a n d w i t h a c o n c o m i t a n t d e s i r e t o g a i n a c c e p t a n c e b y a s many g r o u p s a s p o s s i b l e , t o r i s k a l i e n a t -i n g p o t e n t i a l s u p p o r t e r s b y b e i n g t o o p r e c i s e i n h i s a n a l y s i s . I n t h e a b s e n c e o f e v i d e n c e t o t h e c o n t r a r y , h o w e v e r , one m ust a g r e e w i t h R i c h a r d F r y k l u n d t h a t c a n d i d a t e K e n n e d y h a d r e a d l i t t l e o n n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y . " * " ^ T h e r e a r e , i n a d d i t i o n , g r o u n d s f o r b e l i e v i n g t h a t w h a t r e f e r e n c e s h e d i d make t o e x p e r t o p i n i o n o n t h i s s u b j e c t r e p r e s e n t e d i n some m e a s u r e an a t t e m p t t o l e n d a n a u r a o f i n t e l l e c -t u a l r e s p e c t a b i l i t y t o a n e m o t i o n a l a n d o p p o r t u n i s t i c a p p e a l t o t h e e l e c t o r a t e . E v e n s o u n c r i t i c a l a c h r o n i c l e r o f h i s a d m i n i s t r a t i o n a s A r t h u r S c b l e s i n g e r h a s a d m i t t e d t h a t h i s a t t a c k s o n t h e E i s e n h o w e r A d m i n i s t r a t i o n f o r i t s " l o s s " o f Cuba t o communism stemmed more f r o m a d e s i r e t o c r e a t e a c a m p a i g n i s s u e t h a n f r o m g e n u i n e c o n -v i c t i o n ; i t seems r e a s o n a b l e t o s u p p o s e t h a t t h e same was 17 a t l e a s t p a r t i a l l y t r u e o f h i s s t r a t e g i c p r o n o u n c e m e n t s . On a l e s s c o n j e c t u r a l l e v e l , K e n n e d y ' s i n i t i a l w i l l i n g n e s s t o h a v e G a t e s r e m a i n a t h i s p o s t f o r a f u r t h e r y e a r , a n d 88. h i s abandonment o f t h i s i d e a when he was r e m i n d e d o f h i s r e c e n t a t t a c k s o n R e p u b l i c a n s t r a t e g i c p o l i c i e s , i n d i c a t e d t h a t . h i s d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n w i t h t h e p a c e a n d d i r e c t i o n o f t h e s e p o l i c i e s was n o t as f u n d a m e n t a l a s h e p u b l i c l y made o u t . A t t h e same t i m e , i t i s d o u b t f u l w h e t h e r t h i s o p p o r t u n i s m s p r a n g f r o m a n y t h i n g more s i n i s t e r t h a n a d e s i r e t o w i n v o t e s . S t o n e , a f t e r a l l , d i d n o t o f f e r a n y c o n c r e t e p r o o f t h a t K e n n e d y h a d made s e c r e t d e a l s w i t h A m e r i c a n i n d u s t r y a n d t h a t t h i s a c c o u n t e d f o r h i s s t r a t e g i c p r e f e r e n c e s . I n t h e l a s t a n a l y s i s h i s a r g u m e n t r e s t e d o n t h e f a c t t h a t d e f e n s e b u d g e t s r o s e a f t e r t h e a d v e n t o f t h e new P r e s i d e n t a n d t h a t a number o f i n d u s t r i e s p r o -f i t e d f r o m t h i s . To d r a w a c a u s a l r e l a t i o n s h i p o n t h i s b a s i s , p a r t i c u l a r l y when t h e s t e e l c r i s i s o f 1962 demon-s t r a t e d h i s c a p a b i l i t y f o r o p p o s i n g e v e n t h e m o s t p o w e r -19 f u l i n d u s t r i a l i s t s , d e f i e s b o t h l o g i c a n d common s e n s e . P r e s s u r e s f r o m i n d u s t r y a n d , more i m p o r t a n t , f r o m t h e m i l i t a r y , h a d some i n f l u e n c e o n h i s d e f e n s e p o l i c y , b u t t h e y w e r e n o t . d e c i s i v e i n t h e m s e l v e s . J u s t a s K e n n e d y h a d a p p e a l e d t o A m e r i c a n a n t i - c o m m u n i s m a n d t o t h e t r a d i -t i o n a l b e l i e f i n m i l i t a r y s u p e r i o r i t y d u r i n g h i s c a m p a i g n 89. for the Presidency, so the " m i l i t a r y i n d u s t r i a l complex" had substantial influence only insofar as i t was able to harness these popular currents. Moreover, and far more c r u c i a l , President Kennedy's i n s e n s i t i v i t y to the domestic p o l i t i c a l implica-tions of re t a i n i n g Gates attests to the e s s e n t i a l s i n c e r i t y of his e l e c t o r a l pronouncements; had he been primarily an opponent seeking to play upon the fears of h i s people, he would never have even considered such an action. B. KENNEDY'S THEORY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS To some extent, h i s c r i t i c i s m of the Eisenhower Administration, and the maximalist strains i n h i s speeches, were simply a r e f l e c t i o n of the widespread emotional reac-t i o n to Sputnik. To a yet greater extent, they were a product of a reasoned theory of in t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s and of the role of m i l i t a r y power i n that sphere. Already broadly defined long before he had decided on a career i n p o l i t i c s , t h i s theory had been developed i n more d e t a i l by the time Kennedy attained the Presidency. In a study of appeasement written twenty years 9 0 . b e f o r e h i s a c c e s s i o n t o p o w e r , he h a d c o n c l u d e d ; We m u s t a l w a y s k e e p o u r armaments e q u a l t o o u r com-m i t m e n t s . M u n i c h s h o u l d t e a c h us t h a t ; we must r e a l i z e t h a t a n y b l u f f w i l l be c a l l e d . We c a n n o t t e l l a n y o n e t o k e e p o u t o f o u r h e m i s p h e r e u n l e s s o u r armaments a n d t h e p e o p l e b e h i n d t h e s e armaments a r e p r e p a r e d t o b a c k up t h e command, e v e n t o t h e u l t i m a t e p o i n t o f g o i n g t o w a r . T h e r e m u s t be no d o u b t i n a n y o n e ' s m i n d , t h e d e c i s i o n m u s t be a u t o -m a t i c ; i f we d e b a t e , 2 ^ f we h e s i t a t e , i f we q u e s t i o n , i t w i l l be t o o l a t e . One o f t h e m a i n themes i n t h i s p a s s a g e , t h e n e c e s s i t y f o r p r e v e n t i n g enemy m i s c a l c u l a t i o n o f o n e ' s p h y s i c a l c a p a c i t y a n d d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o i m p l e m e n t a t h r e a t , c o m b i n e d w i t h a n e m p h a s i s o n t h e r o l e o f ' p u b l i c o p i n i o n i n t h i s r e g a r d , was c e n t r a l t o b o t h h i s c a m p a i g n s p e e c h e s a n d t o h i s 21 d e l i b e r a t i o n s i n o f f i c e . S i m i l a r l y , a s e c o n d theme, t h e n e e d f o r a m p l e m i l i t a r y p ower t o s u p p o r t o n e ' s p o l i t i c a l commitments., was a l s o a c o n t i n u i n g c o n c e r n f o r h i m . T h e s e g e n e r a l p r i n c i p l e s w e r e s u p p l e m e n t e d b y , a n d p a r t i a l l y r e f l e c t e d i n , two more s p e c i f i c o n e s w h i c h h e d e v e l o p e d i n t h e l a t e 1 9 5 0 ' s . K e n n e d y , u n l i k e E i s e n -h o w e r , assumed t h a t t h e K r e m l i n ' s w i l l i n g n e s s t o r i s k a c e n t r a l w a r was d i r e c t l y a n d s u b s t a n t i a l l y i n f l u e n c e d b y s h i f t s i n t h e s t r a t e g i c b a l a n c e . T h i s a s s u m p t i o n , e v i d e n t i n h i s s t a t e m e n t s a s a s e n a t o r , p r o v i d e d h i m 9 1 . w i t h a n i n t e l l e c t u a l n e x u s b e t w e e n t h e r e a l m s o f f o r e i g n a n d d e f e n s e p o l i c y o n t h e e v e o f p o w e r . T h u s , a s T h e o d o r e S o r e n s e n h a s t e s t i f i e d , he saw a n i n t e g r a l r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n S p u t n i k , t h e s e c o n d B e r l i n c r i s i s , r e n e w e d c o n f l i c t i n I n d o c h i n a , g r o w i n g R u s s i a n i n f l u e n c e i n C u b a , a n d a v a r i e t y o f S o v i e t m i l i t a r y a n d e c o n o m i c a i d p r o g r a m s i n 22 t h e T h i r d W o r l d . F u r t h e r m o r e , h i s p e r c e p t i o n o f t h r e a t was i n -c r e a s e d e v e n more when, o n J a n u a r y 6, 1961 K h r u s h c h e v made a m a j o r s p e e c h o n t h e p r i n c i p l e s g u i d i n g h i s f o r e i g n 23 p o l i c y . The P r e m i e r c o n t e n d e d t h a t w o r l d w a r s b e t w e e n t h e s u p e r p o w e r s a n d " l o c a l w a r s " - p r e s u m a b l y w a r s b e t w e e n one s u p e r p o w e r a n d m a j o r a l l i e s o f t h e o t h e r - w o u l d e s c a l a t e i n t o a n u c l e a r e x c h a n g e and must t h e r e f o r e be a v o i d e d . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h i s , t h o u g h , he e m p h a s i z e d t h a t t h e p o l i t i c a l a n d e c o n o m i c s t r u g g l e w i t h t h e W e s t w o u l d c o n t i n u e u n a b a t e d , a n d t h a t t h e t i d e o f w o r l d h i s -t o r y f a v o u r e d t h e c a u s e o f communism a s n e v e r b e f o r e . A s a r e s u l t , he p r o c l a i m e d h i s u n q u a l i f i e d s u p p o r t f o r " w a r s o f n a t i o n a l l i b e r a t i o n , " t h a t i s t o s a y w a r s " w h i c h b e g a n a s u p r i s i n g s o f c o l o n i a l p e o p l e s 92. a g a i n s t t h e i r o p p r e s s o r s (and) d e v e l o p e d i n t o g u e r i l l a w a r s . " O f g r e a t e r i m m e d i a t e d a n g e r , he a g a i n r a i s e d t h e q u e s t i o n o f B e r l i n , r e n e w i n g h i s t h r e a t t o s i g n a s e p a r -a t e p e a c e w i t h E a s t Germany, s h o u l d t h e W e s t r e f u s e t o r e c o g n i z e t h e " r e a l s i t u a t i o n " - i n t h a t c i t y . " K ennedy," w r o t e S a n i e s i n g e r , " a c c e p t e d K h r u s h -c h e v ' s r e j e c t i p n o f n u c l e a r w a r as h o n e s t e n o u g h ; a n y o t h e r p o s i t i o n i n t h e P r e s i d e n t ' s v i e w w o u l d h a v e b e e n mad. B u t t h e b e l l i c o s e c o n f i d e n c e w h i c h s u r g e d t h r o u g h t h e r e s t o f t h e s p e e c h a n d e s p e c i a l l y t h e d e c l a r e d f a i t h i n v i c t o r y t h r o u g h r e b e l l i o n , s u b v e r s i o n , a n d g u e r i l l a w a r -f a r e a l a r m e d K e n n e d y more t h a n Moscow's a m i a b l e s i g n a l s . 2 4 a s s u a g e d h i m . C o n f r o n t e d b y t h e p r o s p e c t o f a n i m p e n d -i n g showdown i n B e r l i n , t h e P r e s i d e n t w a n t e d s t r a t e g i c p o w er, b o t h f o r d i p l o m a t i c l e v e r a g e a n d f o r p r o t e c t i o n a g a i n s t p o s s i b l e e s c a l a t i o n o f t h e p o l i t i c a l c o n f r o n t a t i o n i n t o a m i l i t a r y o n e . F u r t h e r m o r e , a l t h o u g h h e saw p r o g r e s s i n t e c h -n i q u e s o f c o u n t e r - g u e r i l l a w a r f a r e a n d e x p a n s i o n o f c o n -v e n t i o n a l f o r c e l e v e l s a s t h e e s s e n t i a l a n s w e r t o " w a r s o f n a t i o n a l l i b e r a t i o n , " h e a l s o b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e b e l l i -9 3 . c o s e c o n f i d e n c e " w h i c h m a g n i f i e d t h i s t h r e a t a l s o h a d i t s r o o t s i n t h e e x p a n s i o n o f S o v i e t n u c l e a r c a p a b i l i t i e s . I n summary, i n c r e a s i n g A m e r i c a n s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s was a v i t a l p r e r e q u i s i t e f o r t u r n i n g b a c k t h e t i d e o f " S p u t n i k d i p -l o m a c y i n E u r o p e a n d , t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t , i n t h e T h i r d W o r l d . S u c h a n i n c r e a s e w o u l d a l s o s e r v e a n o t h e r p u r p o s e , a p u r p o s e s h a p e d l a r g e l y b y t h e s e c o n d p r i n c i p l e . D e s p i t e o c c a s i o n a l s t a t e m e n t s on t h e n e e d t o e n d t h e arms r a c e , K e n n e d y h a d r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e h o p e i n t h i s r e g a r d d u r i n g 25 t h e f i r s t two y e a r s o f h i s a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . The r e a s o n s f o r t h i s w e r e t w o f o l d . To a c e r t a i n e x t e n t , h e f e l t t h a t t h e c l i m a t e o f o p i n i o n i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s l i m i t e d h i s o p t i o n s , f o r he d i d n o t b e l i e v e t h a t d i s a r m a m e n t was 26 a p o p u l a r i s s u e . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h i s , a n d o f f a r g r e a t e r i m p o r t a n c e , he h i m s e l f was e x t r e m e l y s k e p t i c a l a b o u t t h e d e g r e e o f g e n u i n e S o v i e t i n t e r e s t i n t h i s i s s u e . T h i s was i l l u s t r a t e d b y a n i n c i d e n t w h i c h t o o k p l a c e d u r i n g t h e Pugwash c o n f e r e n c e o n d i s a r m a m e n t h e l d i n Moscow i n December, 1960. W a l t R o s t o w a n d J e r o m e W i e s n e r , who w e r e t o become r e s p e c t i v e l y D e p u t y S p e c i a l A s s i s t a n t f o r N a t i o n a l S e c u r i t y A f f a i r s a n d S c i e n c e 94. A d v i s e r t o t h e P r e s i d e n t , w e r e a p p r o a c h e d b y V. V. K u z n e t s o v , a n o f f i c i a l o f t h e S o v i e t F o r e i g n O f f i c e , i n r e g a r d t o K e n n e d y ' s s t a t e m e n t s o n t h e " m i s s i l e g a p . " K u z n e t s o v w a r n e d t h a t t h e U.S a. S.R. w o u l d be f o r c e d t o r e a c t i f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s e x p a n d e d h e r n u c l e a r p o w e r , b u t t h e A m e r i c a n s w e r e u n i m p r e s s e d . A c c o r d i n g t o S c h l e s i n g e r : R e s t o w r e p l i e d t h a t a n y K e n n e d y r e a r m a m e n t w o u l d be d e s i g n e d t o i m p r o v e t h e s t a b i l i t y o f t h e d e t e r r -e n t a n d t h a t t h e S o v i e t U n i o n s h o u l d r e c o g n i z e t h i s a s i n t h e i n t e r e s t s o f p e a c e ; b u t K u z n e t s o v , i n n o c e n t o f t h e h i g h e r c a l c u l u s o f d e t e r r e n c e a s r e c e n t l y d e v e l o p e d i n t h e L J n i t e d S t a t e s , b r u s q u e l y d i s m i s s e d t h e e x p l a n a t i o n . f The c a l c u l u s o f d e t e r r e n c e t o w h i c h S c h l e s i n g e r r e f e r r e d seems t o h a v e b e e n a c o n c e r n - f o r h a s t e n i n g t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a s e c u r e s e c o n d - s t r i k e c a p a b i l i t y . U n d e r -l y i n g t h i s c o n c e r n , t h o u g h , was t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t u n i -l a t e r a l a c c r e t i o n o f s t r a t e g i c p ower b y t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s o f f e r e d a s u r e r g u a r a n t e e o f s t r a t e g i c s t a b i l i t y t h a n e f f o r t s t o h a l t t h e arms r a c e b y c o n s c i o u s r e s t r a i n t i n d e p l o y m e n t s . B e l i e v i n g t h a t he was f a c e d b y a c o n f i d e n t a n d a g g r e s s i v e o p p o n e n t , t h e new P r e s i d e n t a s s u m e d t h a t t h e U.S.S.R was s e e k i n g a c o u n t e r f o r c e c a p a b i l i t y a n d t h a t s e r i o u s n e g o t i a t i o n s o n e n d i n g t h e arms r a c e w e r e t h e r e f o r e i m p o s s i b l e . I t f o l l o w e d f r o m t h i s t h a t t h e 9 5 . o n l y p o s s i b l e s o l u t i o n t o t h i s p r o b l e m was t o c o n f r o n t t h e K r e m l i n w i t h t a n g i b l e p r o o f t h a t i t c o u l d n o t . p r e v a i l i n t h e arms r a c e , a n d t h i s c a l l e d f o r r a p i d a n d u n a b a t e d e x p a n s i o n o f A m e r i c a n s t r a t e g i c p o w e r ; f a i l u r e t o do s o * 2 8 w o u l d o n l y p e r p e t u a t e t h i s c o m p e t i t i o n . T h e s e themes - t h e n e e d t o p r e v e n t m i s c a l c u l a t i o n , t h e n e e d t o s o l v e t h e p r o b l e m s o f " S p u t n i k d i p l o m a c y " a n d t h e arms r a c e , a n d t h e o v e r r i d i n g n e c e s s i t y f o r s u p e r i o r s t r a t e g i c power t o a c c o m p l i s h t h e s e ends - w e r e s u m m a r i z e d i n K e n n e d y ' s i n a u g u r a l a d d r e s s when he s a i d o f t h e R u s s i a n s : We d a r e n o t t e m p t t h e m w i t h w e a k n e s s . F o r o n l y when o u r arms a r e s u f f i c i e n t b e y o n d d o u b t c a n we be c e r t a i n g b e y o n d d o u b t t h a t t h e y w i l l n e v e r be d e p l o y e d . A s a c o r o l l a r y o f t h i s , h e p r o c l a i m e d , " L e t us n e v e r n e g o t -30 l a t e o u t o f f e a r . B u t l e t us n e v e r f e a r t o n e g o t i a t e . " " N e g o t i a t i o n f r o m s t r e n g t h , " more o f a p o l i t i c a l s l o g a n t h a n a g u i d e f o r p o l i c y u n d e r E i s e n h o w e r , was a f i r s t p r i n c i p l e f o r h i s s u c c e s s o r . S i g n i f i c a n t a s i t may h a v e b e e n , h o w e v e r , i t p r o v i d e d o n l y a b r o a d g u i d e l i n e f o r n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y . K e n n e d y , who was d e t e r m i n e d f r o m t h e o u t s e t t o be a s t r o n g p r e s i d e n t , made c e r t a i n t h a t t h e s u b s e q u e n t 9 6 . d e f i n i t i o n o f a s u i t a b l e s t r a t e g y c o n f o r m e d t o h i s p o l i t i c a l g u i d e l i n e s , a n d he a l s o t o o k a s t r o n g i n t e r e s t i n t h e more t e c h n i c a l a s p e c t s o f d e f e n s e p l a n n i n g . A t t h e same t i m e , t h e m u l t i t u d i n o u s demands o f t h e P r e s i d e n c y f o r c e d h i m t o d e l e g a t e m o s t o f t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y i n t h i s a r e a t o R o b e r t S. McNamara, a man whom h e l a t e r c h a r a c t e r i z e d as 31 t h e a b l e s t o f h i s l i e u t e n a n t s . I I . McNAMARA A. I N I T I A L SATISFACTION WITH EISENHOWER'S P O L I C I E S A l t h o u g h c o n c l u s i v e e v i d e n c e o n McNamara's a t t i t u d e s p r i o r t o b e c o m i n g S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e i s somewhat s p a r s e , h i s o u t l o o k a t f i r s t seemed t o b e a r more r e s e m b l a n c e t o t h a t o f t h e p r e c e d i n g a d m i n i s t r a t i o n t h a n t o t h a t o f .the one t o w h i c h h e h a d b e e n a p p o i n t e d . On F e b r u a r y 6, 1961 he h e l d a n o f f - t h e - r e c o r d news c o n f e r e n c e i n w h i c h , a c c o r d -i n g t o t h e New Y o r k T i m e s , he p r a i s e d h i s p r e d e c e s s o r ' s e f f o r t s , s t a t e d t h a t t h e r e was no " m i s s i l e gap" b e c a u s e t h e S o v i e t U n i o n h a d n o t e n g a g e d i n a n a l l - o u t e f f o r t t o p r o d u c e I.C.B.M.s, a n d d e n i e d t h a t t h e A m e r i c a n d e t e r r e n t 32 was i n a n y way i n a d e q u a t e . The s t a t e m e n t o n t h e " m i s s i l e 97. gap" was d e n i e d b y t h e W h i t e House on t h e f o l l o w i n g d a y , a n d t h e new S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e s o o n f o l l o w e d s u i t , s t a t i n g t h a t t h e r e was no " d e t e r r e n c e gap" b u t r e p u d i a t i n g r e p o r t s t h a t he h a d q u e s t i o n e d t h e e x i s t e n c e o f a " m i s s i l e gap" a n d e m p h a s i z i n g t h a t Moscow c o u l d w e l l s e e k t o c r e a t e s u c h a gap i n f u t u r e . T h r e e y e a r s l a t e r , t h o u g h , McNamara h i m s e l f t o o k b a c k much o f t h i s d e n i a l , f o r he s t a t e d t h a t " I t h i n k I l e f t t h e i m p r e s s i o n t h a t I was q u e s t i o n i n g t h e p r e -v i o u s i n t e l l i g e n c e e s t i m a t e s , w h i c h was c e r t a i n l y t h e 34 f a c t . " M o r e o v e r , S c h l e s m g e r , a man w i t h a p a t e n t i n t e r e s t i n e m p h a s i z i n g t h e v e r a c i t y a n d g o o d j u d g m e n t o f b o t h K e n n e d y a n d h i s a d v i s e r s , h a s w r i t t e n t h a t "McNamara, i n a c a n d i d b a c k g r o u n d t a l k t o newspapermen, was r e a d y 35 t o d i s m i s s t h e ( m i s s i l e ) g a p a s a n i l l u s i o n . " I t seems r e a s o n a b l e t o c o n c l u d e , t h e n t h a t t h e New Y o r k T i m e s v e r s i o n o f t h i s c o n f e r e n c e was e s s e n t i a l l y a c c u r a t e . I t seems e q u a l l y r e a s o n a b l e t o c o n c l u d e t h a t , i n f a i l i n g t o e s t a b l i s h a c o n n e c t i o n b e t w e e n t h e d y n a m i s m o f S o v i e t f o r e i g n p o l i c y a n d R u s s i a ' s e n t r y i n t o t h e t h e r m o -n u c l e a r a g e , i n d i s m i s s i n g t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a c u r r e n t " m i s s i l e g a p , " i n n e g l e c t i n g t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a f u t u r e 98. o n e , a n d i n f a i l i n g t o e m p h a s i z e t h e n e e d f o r A m e r i c a n n u c l e a r s u p e r i o r i t y , h e was l e a n i n g t o w a r d a n e o - m i n i m a l -i s m w h i c h d i f f e r e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y f r o m t h e c o n v i c t i o n s o f h i s new c h i e f . H i s p r o m p t r e t u r n t o t h e o f f i c i a l l i n e may be v i e w e d , a s I . F. S t o n e v i e w s i t , a s t h e a c t i o n o f a m o r a l l y weak man who was more c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e pow e r a n d p r e s t i g e o f o f f i c e t h a n w i t h t h e n e e d s o f n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y a n d t h e 36 d i c t a t e s o f m o r a l i n t e g r i t y . McNamara was p e r f e c t l y c a p a b l e o f f o r c e f u l l y a d v a n c i n g h i s v i e w s d u r i n g C a b i n e t d e b a t e s a n d , when he deemed t h e m a t t e r t o be v i t a l , h e was e v e n c a p a b l e o f a p p e a l i n g t o t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c . B. McNAMARA'S CONCEPT OF LOYALTY N o n e t h e l e s s , s u c h a p p e a l s w e r e r a r e . The r e a s o n f o r t h i s , a n d a p a r t i a l e x p l a n a t i o n f o r h i s r e v e r s a l a f t e r t h e F e b r u a r y 6 news c o n f e r e n c e , may be f o u n d i n h i s c o n c e p t o f l o y a l t y : To some d e g r e e , my v i e w o f l o y a l t y i s i n t h e n a t u r e o f a b e l i e f a b o u t how men move f o r w a r d t o w a r d some o b j e c t i v e . A g r o u p o f p e o p l e i n a n y p u r s u i t - a c h u r c h o r e d u c a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e , f o r e x a m p l e -e s t a b l i s h e s a n o b j e c t i v e a n d u n l e s s i n e f f e c t e a c h 99 i s l o y a l t o t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n , t h e o b j e c t i v e c a n n o t be r e a c h e d . I f e a c h b e g i n s t o s u b s t i t u t e h i s own j u d g m e n t , y o u f r a g m e n t a n d w e a k e n the o r g a n i z a t i o n . I t ' s f a r b e t t e r t o move t o g e t h e r t o w a r d a r e a s o n a b l y a c c e p t a b l e g o a l t h a n toward one j u s t a few d e g r e e s o f f f r o m i t , o n y o u r own. C. HIS INEXPERIENCE H i s i n e x p e r i e n c e i n m a t t e r s o f n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y was y e t more i m p o r t a n t . A t t h e c o n c l u s i o n o f h i s t e n u r e as S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e McNamara a d m i t t e d t h a t i t c o u l d n o t be c o n c l u d e d " t h a t I a n d my a s s o c i a t e s c l e a r l y u n d e r -s t o o d , o r e v e n p e r c e i v e d a l l o f t h e m u l t i - f a c e t e d a s p e c t s o f t h i s v a s t l y c o m p l e x p r o b l e m ( g e n e r a l n u c l e a r w a r ) f r o m t h e v e r y o u t s e t , " a n d h e w e n t o n t o s t a t e t h a t "my own v i e w s h a v e m a t u r e d a n d become more p r e c i s e s i n c e t h a t 38 t i m e . " A p a r t f r o m s e r v i c e d u r i n g t h e S e c o n d W o r l d War a s a n e x p e r t i n s t a t i s t i c a l c o n t r o l s , h e h a d h a d l i t t l e t o do w i t h m i l i t a r y a f f a i r s ; a f t e r t h e w a r h e h a d j o i n e d t h e F o r d M o t o r Company a n d h a d r e m a i n e d t h e r e f o r t h e n e x t f i f t e e n y e a r s , b e c o m i n g p r e s i d e n t o f t h a t company i n November, 1960, a month b e f o r e he a c c e p t e d a p o s i t i o n i n 39 t h e C a b i n e t . D u r i n g t h i s p e r i o d he h a d r e a d o n l y one b o o k o n m i l i t a r y a f f a i r s - O s k a r M o r g e n s t e r n ' s The Q u e s t i o n  o f N a t i o n a l D e f e n s e - a n d t h i s v o l u m e o f f e r e d o n l y a 100. g e n e r a l a n d i n c o m p l e t e a n a l y s i s o f t h e p r o b l e m o f n u c l e a r 4 - 4 - 4 0 s t r a t e g y . I n c o n s e q u e n c e , h e s t a t e d t h a t when K e n n e d y a s k e d h i m t o become S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e , " I f e l t u n -q u a l i f i e d , I r e a l l y d i d , " a n d h e a t f i r s t d e c l i n e d t h e i n v i t a t i o n ; a c c e p t a n c e came o n l y when t h e P r e s i d e n t - e l e c t r e n e w e d h i s r e q u e s t a n d p o i n t e d o u t t h a t h e w o u l d be a s much o f a n o v i c e i n h i s o f f i c e a s McNamara w o u l d be i n 41 h x s . A c u t e l y c o n s c i o u s o f h i s own l a c k o f e x p e r t i s e , t h e new S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e was s t i l l f e e l i n g h i s way i n h i s new j o b , a n d h i s e x p o s i t i o n o f F e b r u a r y 6 was l e s s a f i n a l i z e d p o l i c y p o s i t i o n t h a n a p r e l i m i n a r y a n d t e n t a t i v e s t a t e m e n t o n w h a t e v i d e n c e h e h a d b e e n a b l e t o a s s i m i l a t e i n t h e s h o r t t i m e h e h a d b e e n i n o f f i c e . D. HIS A C T I V I S M F i n a l l y , McNamara"s t e m p e r a m e n t was s i m i l a r t o K e n n e d y ' s i n a v e r y f u n d a m e n t a l s e n s e . Much a s t h e s u b -s t a n c e o f h i s f i r s t news c o n f e r e n c e r e s e m b l e d p r o n o u n c e -ments b y E i s e n h o w e r o r G a t e s , t h e s p i r i t w i t h w h i c h h e a p p r o a c h e d h i s t a s k s was m a r k e d l y d i f f e r e n t f r o m t h a t 1 0 1 . o f h i s p r e d e c e s s o r . Endowed w i t h a v i g o r o u s a c t i v i s m , a n d h a v i n g e n j o y e d a n a l m o s t u n b r o k e n c a r e e r o f s u c c e s s i n p r o b l e m s o l v i n g he was a r e a d y c o n v e r t t o many o f K e n n e d y ' s m a x i m a l i s t i n c l i n a t i o n s ; b o t h b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e w o r l d c o u l d be moved, a l b e i t t o a f i n i t e d e g r e e , i f s u f f i c i e n t w i l l , i n t e l l i g e n c e , a n d r e s o u r c e s w e r e d e v o t e d t o t h i s e n d . 1 0 2 . MOVEMENT TOWARD NEO-MAXIMALISM: THE F I S C A L  YEAR 1962 BUDGET T h i s c a s t o f m i n d made a n i m p r i n t , t h o u g h o n l y a p a r t i a l o n e , o n t h e f i r s t d e f e n s e b u d g e t w h i c h K e n n e d y an d McNamara p r e s e n t e d t o C o n g r e s s . F o r them, a s f o r t h e i r p r e d e c e s s o r s , t h e p r o b l e m o f n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y i n v o l v e d f i v e m a i n i s s u e s . F i r s t , t h e y h a d t o e s t a b l i s h how l a r g e a . s t r a t e g i c f o r c e was c u r r e n t l y a t R u s s i a ' s d i s p o s a l . S e c o n d a n d e v e n h a r d e r , t h e y h a d t o p r e d i c t t h e f u t u r e m a g n i -t u d e a n d n a t u r e o f t h i s f o r c e . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e y h a d t o d e t e r m i n e a p p r o p r i a t e f o r c e l e v e l s f o r t h e m s e l v e s i n t h e f a c e o f t h i s t h r e a t . C l o s e l y l i n k e d t o t h i s , t h e y a l s o h a d t o w e i g h t h e t e c h n o l o g i c a l o p t i o n s o p e n t o them, a t a s k w h i c h , i n t h e e a r l y 1 9 6 0 ' s , p r i m a r i l y i n v o l v e d c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e r e l a t i v e m e r i t s o f bombers a n d m i s s i l e s f o r o f f e n s i v e m i s s i o n s , a n d j u d g m e n t o f t h e p r o s p e c t s f o r a s u c c e s s f u l d e f e n s e a g a i n s t enemy o f f e n s i v e f o r c e s . F i n a l l y , a n d u n d e r l y i n g t h i s w h o l e c a l c u l u s , i t was a l s o n e c e s s a r y t o d e t e r m i n e t h e s p e c i f i c o b j e c t i v e s , w h i c h t h e A m e r i c a n s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s w e r e t o a c c o m p l i s h . T h i s i n t u r n i n v o l v e d a c h o i c e b e t w e e n c o n t i n u a n c e o f E i s e n h o w e r ' s de f a c t o c o u n t e r v a l u e p o l i c y , i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f h i s v e r b a l c ommitment t o c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e , o r c o m p l e t e a c c e p t a n c e 103. of counterforce doctrines. Admittedly, the r e s u l t i n g decisions were s i m i l a r i n many respects to those incorporated into the f i s c a l year 1962 defense budget o r i g i n a l l y prepared by the Eisen-hower Administration. Kennedy and McNamara shared t h e i r predecessors' reluctance to meet the maximalist demand for a force of improved intercontinental bombers to complement the growing miss i l e forces. Moreover, .they too concluded that an e f f e c t i v e A.B.M. system was not.yet f e a s i b l e , a factor which m i l i t a t e d against the most extreme counter-force arguments of the maximalists. At the same time, however, t h e i r assessments of the e x i s t i n g threat and of the future one were far less sanguine than those of the Eisenhower Administration. This consideration, and the b e l i e f that a greater margin for uncertainty had to be made i n planning a second-s t r i k e c a p a b i l i t y , accounted i n some measure for the new administration's decision to accelerate American strategic deployments. Yet more important, t h i s decision also re-fl e c t e d an i n c l i n a t i o n to favour coercive deterrence over a purely countervalue p o l i c y . More of an i l l - d e f i n e d tendency than a f i n a l p o l i c y decision i n th i s budget, 104. t h i s was t o become a s p e c i f i c a n d o v e r r i d i n g theme i n t h e n e x t o n e . I . DEPARTURES FROM THE APPROACH OF THE EISENHOWER ADMINISTRATION TOWARD FORCE PLANNING A. THE PROBLEM OF ESTIMATING THE CURRENT THREAT I n a s s e s s i n g t h e e x i s t i n g t h r e a t , K e n n e d y a n d McNamara w e r e i n c l i n e d t o l e a v e l i t t l e t o c h a n c e . R o g e r H i l s m a n , who was D i r e c t o r o f I n t e l l i g e n c e a n d R e s e a r c h i n t h e S t a t e D e p a r t m e n t b e t w e e n 1961 a n d 1 9 6 3 , h a s i n -d i c a t e d t h a t McNamara's d o u b t s a b o u t t h e e x i s t e n c e o f a " m i s s i l e gap" p e r s i s t e d a f t e r h i s F e b r u a r y 6 new c o n f e r -e n c e a n d t h a t h e c o n s e q u e n t l y " p r e s s e d h a r d f o r b e t t e r i n t e l l i g e n c e . " " ' " K e n n e d y , t o o , seems t o h a v e s h a r e d t h i s s k e p t i c i s m a f t e r b e i n g b r i e f e d b y t h e i n t e l l i g e n c e com-2 m u n i t y when he became P r e s i d e n t . T h e o d o r e S o r e n s e n , whose c l o s e p e r s o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h t h e P r e s i d e n t q u a l i f i e d h i m t o s p e a k w i t h some a u t h o r i t y o n h i s s u b j e c t , h a s w r i t t e n : B u t b e f o r e a l l U-2 f l i g h t s w e r e e n d e d o n May 1, 1960, t h e i r p h o t o g r a p h y i n d i c a t e d t h a t K h r u s h c h e v h a d b e e n b l u f f i n g . A p p a r e n t l y h i s f i r s t I.C.B.M. h a d b e e n t o o c o s t l y , t o o cumbersome a n d t o o v u l n e r -1 0 5 . a b l e a weapon f o r mass p r o d u c t i o n a n d d e p l o y m e n t . He h a d s e t t l e d , i n s t e a d , f o r a v e r y f ew o f t h e s e m i s s i l e s w h i l e p u s h i n g a h e a d o n t h e d e p l o y m e n t o f medium-range m i s s i l e s a i m e d a t E u r o p e a n d t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a b e t t e r I.C.B.M. 3 A p p a r e n t l y , t h e n , K e n n e d y was i n l a r g e m e a s u r e s a t i s f i e d w i t h t h e v a l i d i t y o f t h e r e a s s u r i n g i n t e l l i g e n c e f r o m t h e U-2. To a d d t o t h i s , S c h l e s i n g e r , t h e s e m i - o f f i c i a l h i s -t o r i a n o f t h e K e n n e d y y e a r s , s t a t e d t h a t c e s s a t i o n o f t h e s e f l i g h t s d i d n o t n e c e s s a r i l y p r e s e n t a s e r i o u s i n t e l -l i g e n c e p r o b l e m , f o r "new i n t e l l i g e n c e m e t h o d s a n d s o u r c e s c a s t d o u b t s o n t h e e s t i m a t e ( o f a ' m i s s i l e g a p ' ) . i n t h e 4 w i n t e r o f 1 9 6 0 - 6 1 . " The P r e s i d e n t a n d h i s S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e , t h e n , w e r e i n e s s e n t i a l a g r e e m e n t t h a t t h e r e was p r o b a b l y l i t t l e , i f a n y , d i s p a r i t y b e t w e e n A m e r i c a n a n d S o v i e t s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , p r o b a b i l i t y was n o t c e r t a i n t y . A s was n o t e d e a r l i e r , t h e U-2 d a t a i n v o l v e d some r e s i d u a l u n c e r t a i n t i e s , due t o t h e l i m i t e d r a n g e o f t h i s a i r c r a f t a n d t o t h e d e n s e c l o u d o v e r t h e n o r t h e r n m o s t r e a c h e s o f t h e U.S.S.R. M o r e o v e r , t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t new s o u r c e o f i n f o r m a t i o n w h i c h S c h l e s i n g e r a p p a r e n t l y h a d i n m i n d , t h e Samos o b s e r v a t i o n s a t e l l i t e f i r e d i n t o o r b i t o n J a n u a r y 3 1 , 106. 1961, seems to have functioned imperfectly at the outset. According to Hilsman: But even as late as June, .1961 the evidence was contradictory and the i n t e l l i g e n c e community con-tinued to be s p l i t , with some A i r Force estimates s t i l l going as high as three hundred Soviet missiles deployed and some Navy estimates as low as ten. I t was not u n t i l the summer and f a l l of 1961 that fJhe Americans discovered the true s i t u a t i o n . . . . As long as thi s s i t u a t i o n persisted, the maximalist i n -c l i n a t i o n s of both Kennedy and McNamara m i l i t a t e d against acceptance of the lower estimates as a basis for force planning; even i f they p r i v a t e l y accepted these estimates, they f e l t that strategic prudence compelled them to pro-vide a margin for error. Furthermore, the climate of American opinion served to reinforce t h i s conclusion. Eisenhower's ex-perience had demonstrated that merely denying the e x i s t -ence of a "missile gap," without conclusive evidence i n support of thi s denial, would not necessarily a l l a y popular fears of such a "gap." The surest way of resolving t h i s problem, and the accompanying problem of Soviet doubts about the_ c r e d i b i l i t y of the American deterrent, was to ensure, i n the words of Kennedy's inaugural speech, that "our arms are s u f f i c i e n t beyond doubt." 1 0 7 . G i v e n t h e t i m e r e q u i r e d t o make a d j u s t m e n t s i n t h e p r o g r a m e d m i s s i l e f o r c e s ' r a t e o f d e p l o y m e n t , a n d g i v e n t h e p e r s i s t e n t c o n v i c t i o n t h a t t h e t h r e a t , w h i l e s e r i o u s , d i d n o t w a r r a n t e f f o r t s o n a w a r t i m e s c a l e , t h i s p r i n -c i p a l l y i n v o l v e d c h a n g e s i n t h e a l e r t a r r a n g e m e n t s f o r S.A. C.bombers. T h u s , i n h i s b u d g e t a r y m e s s a g e o f M a r c h 28, 1 9 6 1 , K e n n e d y a n n o u n c e d t h a t he w o u l d f o l l o w t h r o u g h o n E i s e n h o w e r ' s d e c i s i o n t o p r o v i d e a c a p a b i l i t y f o r p u t t i n g o n e - e i g h t h o f t h e s e a i r c r a f t o n a i r b o r n e a l e r t a n d t h a t he w o u l d i n c r e a s e t h e f r a c t i o n o f t h i s f o r c e o n g r o u n d 6 a l e r t f r o m o n e - t h x r d t o o n e - h a l f . B. THE PROBLEM OF PREDICTING THE FUTURE THREAT P a r a l l e l t o t h i s , t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s i n v o l v e d i n f a t h o m i n g t h e f u t u r e c o u r s e o f enemy d e p l o y m e n t s seemed t o m i l i t a t e e v e n more s t r o n g l y i n f a v o u r o f more m a x i m a l -i s t a s s u m p t i o n s . The R u s s i a n m i s s i l e p r o g r a m , a f t e r a l l , h a d a p p a r e n t l y b e e n r e t a r d e d b y a n u n w i s e t e c h n i c a l c h o i c e , r a t h e r t h a n b y c o n s c i o u s r e s t r a i n t . J u s t a s t h e K r e m l i n h a d n o t s o u g h t t o c r e a t e a "bomber gap" when i t p e r c e i v e d t h a t t h e r e s o u r c e s a v a i l a b l e t o i t w o u l d be b e t t e r s p e n t i n e x p l o i t i n g t h e p o s s i b i l i t y f o r c r e a t i n g a " m i s s i l e g a p " , 108. s o t h e c u r r e n t f a i l u r e o f a f i r s t - g e n e r a t i o n " m i s s i l e gap," t o m a t e r i a l i z e c o u l d w e l l p o r t e n d a c r a s h p r o g r a m b y t h e R u s s i a n s t o c o r r e c t t h e i r m i s t a k e and t o f i n a l l y g a i n n u c l e a r s u p e r i o r i t y w i t h a n i m p r o v e d , s e c o n d - g e n e r a t i o n , 7 I.C.B.M. The u n c e r t a i n t i e s , m o r e o v e r , d i d n o t e n d h e r e . W r i t i n g i n 1957, a S o v i e t army o f f i c e r h a d c o n c l u d e d t h a t " t e c h n i c a l l y , c r e a t i o n o f a p o t e n t d e f e n s e s y s t e m a g a i n s t 8 b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e s i s f u l l y f e a s i b l e . " A s Army S e c r e t a r y S t a h r p o i n t e d o u t , t h e r e was e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e S o v i e t s w e r e 9 now h e a v i l y e n g a g e d i n t h i s a r e a . S h o u l d t h e y a c h i e v e a t e c h n i c a l b r e a k t h r o u g h , t h e menace t o t h e A m e r i c a n c a p a -c i t y f o r w r e a k i n g u n a c c e p t a b l e damage u p o n them m i g h t be e v e n g r e a t e r t h a n i f t h e y g a i n e d s u p e r i o r i t y i n o f f e n s i v e m i s s i l e s . M o r e o v e r , K e n n e d y r e c o g n i z e d t h a t " t h e f i r s t n a t i o n t o p e r f e c t a m i s s i l e d e f e n s e w o u l d h a v e a n immense p s y c h o l o g i c a l a d v a n t a g e as w e l l a s m i l i t a r y , " a n d "A.B.M. d i p l o m a c y , " a c o u n t e r p a r t t o " S p u t n i k d i p l o m a c y , " w o u l d 10 be a l l b u t i n e v i t a b l e . The e s s e n t i a l a n s w e r t o t h e p r o b l e m o f t h e s e f u t u r e t h r e a t s was a v i g o r o u s r e s e a r c h a n d d e v e l o p m e n t p r o g r a m a n d a c a p a b i l i t y f o r m a n u f a c t u r i n g s u f f i c i e n t 109. w eapons t o o f f s e t them i f t h e y e m e r g e d . T h i s l a t t e r c o n -s i d e r a t i o n , K e n n e d y a n d McNamara s t a t e d , was l a r g e l y r e s -p o n s i b l e f o r t h e i r d e c i s i o n t o d o u b l e t h e p r o d u c t i o n c a p a c -i t y f o r M i n u t e m a n , t h e r e b y e n a b l i n g t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s " t o move t o s t i l l h i g h e r l e v e l s o f s t r e n g t h more s w i f t l y s h o u l d f u t u r e c o n d i t i o n s w a r r a n t d o u b l i n g o u r production.""'""'" To a l e s s e r e x t e n t , t h e p l a n n e d i n c r e a s e s i n A m e r i c a n f o r c e s i n b e i n g w e r e a l s o d e s i g n e d t o o f f s e t t h e s e t h r e a t s . The c h a n g e s i n t h e bomber a l e r t a r r a n g e m e n t s , i t was s t r e s s e d , w o u l d s e r v e a s a v i t a l s t o p - g a p d u r i n g t h e c r i t i c a l y e a r s 1 9 6 2 - 1 9 6 3 , when t h e A m e r i c a n m i s s i l e f o r c e was s t i l l r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l a n d when R u s s i a n I.C.B.M. 12 s t r e n g t h m i g h t be c o n s i d e r a b l y g r e a t e r . A s a l o n g e r -t e r m s o l u t i o n , K e n n e d y a n d McNamara h a d d e c i d e d t o i n -c r e a s e t h e p r o g r a m e d P o l a r i s f o r c e f r o m n i n e t e e n t o t w e n t y - n i n e s u b m a r i n e s a n d t o a c c e l e r a t e t h e i r r a t e o f 13 p r o d u c t i o n . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h i s , t h e d a t e b y w h i c h M i n u t e m a n was t o be o p e r a t i o n a l was a d v a n c e d one y e a r , s o t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s w o u l d h a v e a few o f t h e s e 14 m i s s i l e s r e a d y f o r combat i n l a t e 1 9 6 2 . F i n a l l y , t h e p r o j e c t e d M i n u t e m a n f o r c e was t o b e i n c r e a s e d b y s i x t y m i s s i l e s t h r o u g h d e f e r m e n t o f t h e t h r e e t r a i n - b a s e d 110. mobile squadrons o r i g i n a l l y funded i n favour of three more fixed-base squadrons."*"^ I I . SIMILARITIES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE EISENHOWER ADMINISTRATION TOWARD NEW WEAPONS SYSTEMS Having decided on a net addit i o n a l expenditure of approximately one b i l l i o n d o l l a r s on the Po l a r i s and Minuteman alone, Kennedy and McNamara were highly r e l u c -tant to commit themselves to further heavy outlays on new weapons systems whose strategic value seemed question-able."^ In consequence, t h e i r positions i n regard to the projected B-70 bomber and the Nike-Zeus A.B.M. system bore a strong resemblance to the positions taken by t h e i r predecessors. A. RELUCTANCE TO DEPLOY A NEW BOMBER O r i g i n a l l y conceived i n 1 9 5 3 , the B-70 was to be a high-speed, high-altitude successor to the B-52 with an improved c a p a b i l i t y for penetrating enemy defenses. In January, 1958, the Eisenhower Administration had com-mitted i t s e l f to actual development of thi s a i r c r a f t as a weapons system, but subsequent progress i n m i s s i l e r y occasioned a reassessment of thi s commitment, and i n 1 1 1 . December, 1959 i t decided to l i m i t i t s e l f to work on proto-types. Under pressure of the 1960 elections, however, i t reversed i t s p o s i t i o n again, and announced that i t had decided to restore the B-70 program to i t s previous status. Almost inevitably, t h i s decision came under close scrutiny by the new administration. During the ensuing debate, the A i r Force defended the B-70 with expositions on the dangers of over-reliance on new and r e l a t i v e l y untested m i s s i l e systems, on the p o s i t i v e benefits of bombers, and on the necessity for a more advanced bomber i f these benefits were to be guaranteed i n future. M i s s i l e s had been tested for only a r e l a t i v e l y short period of time, the A i r Force argued, and, even more serious, they had never been tested under combat conditions. Their r e l i a b i l i t y i n wartime - and hence t h e i r effectiveness as a deterrent i n peacetime -18 was consequently shrouded i n much uncertainty. Closely linked to t h i s , as missiles could not be r e c a l l e d a f t e r launching, they offered only two options i n the event of attack; they could be committed to combat on warning, or they could be l e f t on the ground, the l a t t e r course ex-posing them to an onslaught i n which t h e i r chances of 19 s u r v i v a l would be open to serious question. 112. 1 H e a v y r e l i a n c e o n I.C.B.M.s, m o r e o v e r , w o u l d g r e a t l y e n h a n c e t h e g r a v i t y , a n d t h e p r o b a b i l i t y , o f e f f e c t i v e enemy c o u n t e r m e a s u r e s . T h u s , i f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s c o n -c e n t r a t e d p r i m a r i l y o n t h e s e m i s s i l e s , t h i s w o u l d e n c o u r a g e t h e S o v i e t s t o p e r f e c t a n A.B.M., w h i c h i n t u r n w o u l d n e g a t e , n o t m e r e l y p a r t o f h e r r e t a l i a t o r y c a p a c i t y , b u t 20 a l m o s t a l l o f i t . To a d d t o t h i s , t h e r e was a f u r t h e r d r a w b a c k t o m i s s i l e s , f o r , a c c o r d i n g t o G e n e r a l W h i t e , t h e y b r e d a k i n d . o f M a g i n o t - m i n d e d n e s s , " a n a t i o n a l p y s c h o l o g y . . . o f a c o m p l e t e l y s t a t i c a n d a l m o s t a ..21 n e g a t i v e a s p e c t . " I n c o n t r a s t t o t h i s , t h e a r g u m e n t c o n t i n u e d , b ombers o f f e r e d a f a r more r e l i a b l e , a n d f a r more f l e x -i b l e , means o f s u r m o u n t i n g t h e d a n g e r o u s u n c e r t a i n t i e s o f t h e w o r l d . U n l i k e m i s s i l e s , t h e y h a d e v o l v e d o v e r many y e a r s , a n d h a d r e p e a t e d l y p r o v e d t h e m s e l v e s i n c o m b a t . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h i s , t h e y a l s o g r e a t l y e x p a n d e d t h e number o f o p t i o n s a v a i l a b l e t o d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s i f w a r b r o k e o u t . A f t e r t h e i n i t i a l w a r n i n g , t h e bomber f o r c e c o u l d be l a u n c h e d t o p r e v e n t i t s d e s t r u c t i o n o n t h e g r o u n d , b u t i t n e e d n o t be d i r e c t e d a g a i n s t t a r g e t s i n t h e S o v i e t U n i o n u n t i l t h e w a r n i n g h a d b e e n c o n f i r m e d . F u r t h e r m o r e , 1 1 3 . t h i s f o r c e w o u l d be w e l l s u i t e d t o c o u n t e r f o r c e m i s s i o n s ; i t w o u l d be e x t r e m e l y a c c u r a t e , c o u l d s e a r c h o u t i m p e r -f e c t l y l o c a t e d t a r g e t s , c o u l d make t a r g e t a s s e s s m e n t s , a n d c o u l d be r e - d i r e c t e d i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e s e a s s e s s m e n t s . I n p e a c e t i m e , o n t h e o t h e r h a n d , a s u b s t a n t i a l bomber c o n t i n g e n t w o u l d i n c r e a s e t h e d i v e r s i t y , a n d h e n c e t h e o v e r - a l l i n v u l n e r a b i l i t y , o f A m e r i c a n s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s . A c o n t i n g e n t s u c h a s t h i s w o u l d c a u s e t h e enemy t o d i v e r t s c a r c e r e s o u r c e s i n w h a t w o u l d p r o b a b l y b e a n i n e f f e c t i v e a n d d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y e x p e n s i v e a t t e m p t t o c o u n t e r t h e s p e c i f i c t h r e a t w h i c h i t p r e s e n t e d . I n s o d o i n g , i t w o u l d a l s o r a i s e t h e p r i c e o f h i s e f f o r t s t o e r e c t a n a l l - e n c o m p a s s i n g s y s t e m o f c o u n t e r m e a s u r e s , a n d , i n d e e d , . m i g h t u l t i m a t e l y f o r c e h i m t o s p r e a d h i m s e l f t o o 23 t h i n i n t h e s e e f f o r t s . F i n a l l y , t h e " d y n a m i c " c h a r a c t e r o f t h e bomber w o u l d h e l p t o p e r p e t u a t e t h a t o f f e n s i v e s p i r i t w h i c h i s e s s e n t i a l t o d e t e r r e n c e i n p e a c e t i m e 24 a n d t o v i c t o r y i n w a r t i m e . The B-52, o f c o u r s e , h a d a f f o r d e d m o s t o f t h e s e s t r a t e g i c a d v a n t a g e s i n t h e p a s t , b u t p r o d u c t i o n o f t h i s a i r c r a f t was s c h e d u l e d t o e n d i n t h e autumn' o f 1 9 6 2 . M o r e o v e r , b y t h e l a t e 1 9 6 0 ' s , t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f t h e 114. B-52 f o r c e w o u l d be s e r i o u s l y i m p a i r e d , b o t h b y i t s age a n g b y t h e i n c r e a s i n g s o p h i s t i c a t i o n o f S o v i e t a n t i - a i r -25 c r a f t d e f e n s e s . . I n v i e w o f t h i s , t h e a r g u m e n t c o n -c l u d e d , i t was v i t a l t h a t a f o l l o w - o n , t h e B-70, be d e v e l o p e d and d e p l o y e d a s q u i c k l y a s p o s s i b l e . K e n n e d y a n d McNamara w e r e f a r f r o m c o n v i n c e d b y t h e s e a r g u m e n t s ; t h e y w e r e d u b i o u s a b o u t t h e o p e r a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e B-70 i t s e l f , t h e y w e r e s a t i s f i e d t h a t t h e B-52 f o r c e c o u l d p e r f o r m i t s t a s k s a d e q u a t e l y b e y o n d t h e 1 9 6 0 ' s , a n d , m o s t i m p o r t a n t , t h e y w e r e c o n -v i n c e d t h a t t h e r e l a t i v e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f s t r a t e g i c bombers o f a n y k i n d w o u l d d e c l i n e g r e a t l y as. A m e r i c a a d v a n c e d f u r t h e r i n t o t h e m i s s i l e a g e . McNamara p o i n t e d o u t t h a t t h e B-70 was a n e x t r e m e l y e x p e n s i v e weapons s y s t e m ; f u l l d e v e l o p m e n t o f i t w o u l d c o s t 2.7 b i l l i o n d o l l a r s , w h i l e i t w o u l d c o s t a f u r t h e r 4.5 b i l l i o n t o p r o d u c e a f o r c e 26 o f two h u n d r e d o f t h e s e a i r c r a f t . F u r t h e r m o r e , l i k e o t h e r b o m b e r s , i t w o u l d b e f a r more v u l n e r a b l e o n t h e g r o u n d t h a n h a r d e n e d m i s s i l e s i t e s , i t h a d a d a n g e r o u s l y l o n g g r o u n d r e a c t i o n t i m e , a n d i t d i d n o t l e n d i t s e l f t o a i r b o r n e a l e r t m e a s u r e s . R a t h e r t h a n r e p r e s e n t i n g a n i m p r o v e m e n t , t h e n , t h e B-70 w o u l d a c t u a l l y be more v u l -n e r a b l e to s u r p r i s e a t t a c k t h a n t h e a i r c r a f t w h i c h i t 115. was s u p p o s e d t o s u p p l a n t . E v e n i f i t was a b l e t o e s c a p e d e s t r u c t i o n o n t h e g r o u n d , c o n t i n u e d McNamara, i t m i g h t a l s o b e l e s s w e l l e q u i p p e d t h a n t h e B-52 f o r d e s t r o y i n g i t s t a r g e t . B o m b i n g m i s s i o n s h a d t r a d i t i o n a l l y b e e n a c c o m p l i s h e d b y t h e p e n e -t r a t i o n o f b o t h t h e a i r c r a f t a n d t h e g r a v i t y bombs w i t h i n t hem t h r o u g h enemy a i r d e f e n s e s . N a t u r a l l y , a n i m p r o v e d S o v i e t c a p a b i l i t y f o r d e s t r o y i n g a t t a c k i n g a i r c r a f t w o u l d make t h e s e m i s s i o n s more d i f f i c u l t a s l o n g a s t h e y w e r e d e p e n d e n t u p o n t h i s t e c h n i q u e f o r t h e i r s u c c e s s . A. s o l u t i o n t o t h i s p r o b l e m , h o w e v e r , seemed t o be i n t h e o f f i n g a s a r e s u l t o f p r o g r e s s i n w o r k on t h e S k y b o l t a i r - t o - s u r -f a c e m i s s i l e (A.S.M.), w h i c h was t o be f i r e d f r o m t h e a i r -c r a f t b e f o r e i t came w i t h i n r a n g e o f t h e enemy a i r d e f e n s e s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e B-70 h a d n o t b e e n d e s i g n e d t o e m p l o y A.S.M.s. The B-52, o n t h e o t h e r h a n d , c o u l d be a d a p t e d t o c a r r y t h e s e m i s s i l e s w i t h r e l a t i v e e a s e , a n d was t h e r e f o r e a s s u r e d o f a h i g h d e g r e e o f p e n e t r a b i l i t y . F i n a l l y , w h i l e 1 K e n n e d y a n d McNamara b e l i e v e d t h a t r e s i d u a l u n c e r t a i n t i e s a b o u t t h e o p e r a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s -t i c s o f m i s s i l e s , c o m b i n e d w i t h t h e c a p a c i t y o f a i r c r a f t t o o p e r a t e u n d e r p o s i t i v e c o n t r o l , made a bomber f o r c e o f 1 1 6 . some k i n d n e c e s s a r y f o r a t l e a s t t h e n e x t f e w y e a r s , t h e y w e r e d u b i o u s a b o u t t h e l o n g - t e r m r e q u i r e m e n t f o r s u c h a f o r c e . B y t h e l a t e 1 9 6 0 ' s , a f t e r a l l , t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s w o u l d h a v e a l a r g e f o r c e o f a d v a n c e d m i s s i l e s i n h e r a r s e n a l a n d , i n t h e i r e y e s , t h i s d e v e l o p m e n t w o u l d i n a l l p r o b a b i l i t y make t h e bomber o b s o l e t e . I n summary, t h e B-70 seemed t o be a n i n f e r i o r s p e c i e s o f a s t r a t e g i c g e n u s whose f u t u r e v a l u e was v e r y much i n d o u b t . C o n s e q u e n t l y , t h e new a d m i n i s t r a t i o n d e c i d e d t o k e e p o p e n t h e o p t i o n o f a n a d v a n c e d bomber b y c o n t i n u i n g a p r o g r a m o f d e v e l o p m e n t a n d t e s t i n g , b u t i t a l s o r e f u s e d t o commit i t s e l f t o p r o d u c t i o n a t t h a t t i m e . B. S K E P T I C I S M ABOUT B A L L I S T I C M I S S I L E DEFENSE The N i k e - Z e u s A.B.M. p r o g r a m met a s i m i l a r f a t e . H a v i n g f a i l e d t o p e r s u a d e t h e E i s e n h o w e r A d m i n i s t r a t i o n t o b e g i n a t l e a s t l i m i t e d p r o d u c t i o n o f t h i s s y s t e m , t h e 27 Army s o u g h t t o w i n o v e r i t s s u c c e s s o r . A s u c c e s s f u l A.B.M. s y s t e m c o u l d p r o t e c t b o t h t h e p o p u l a c e a n d t h e s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a g a i n s t t h e g r o w i n g R u s s i a n I.C.B.M. t h r e a t , Army s p o k e s m e n c o n t e n d e d , a n d 117. i t c o u l d a l s o y i e l d s u b s t a n t i a l p s y c h o l o g i c a l a n d p o l i t i c a l b e n e f i t s i n t h e r e a l m o f f o r e i g n p o l i c y . A s t h e N i k e - Z e u s p r o j e c t was t h e o n l y e x i s t i n g A m e r i c a n a n t i - b a l l i s t i c p r o g r a m , i t was t h e r e f o r e v i t a l t h a t i t be d e v e l o p e d a n d d e p l o y e d a s r a p i d l y a s p o s s i b l e . The d e f e n s i v e n o t e s t r u c k i n t h i s l a s t a r g u m e n t -t h a t N i k e - Z e u s , t h o u g h i m p e r f e c t , was t h e o n l y A.B.M. s y s t e m a v a i l a b l e t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s - p r e s a g e d i t s r e j e c -t i o n . McNamara h a d r e a d i l y p e r c e i v e d t h e a d v a n t a g e s of. a n e f f e c t i v e A.B.M. s y s t e m b u t he was e q u a l l y q u i c k t o r e c o g -n i z e t h a t N i k e - Z e u s h a r d l y c o n s t i t u t e d s u c h a s y s t e m . As he t o l d t h e H ouse Armed S e r v i c e s C o m m i t t e e : R e c o g n i z i n g t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e a n t i - I . C . B . M . s y s t e m t o t h e d e f e n s e o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , we h a v e c a r e f u l l y c o n s i d e r e d t h e q u e s t i o n o f m o v i n g p a r t s o f t h e N i k e - Z e u s s y s t e m i n t o t h e p r o d u c t i o n p h a s e b e f o r e t h e d e v e l o p m e n t , t e s t , a n d e v a l u a t i o n p h a s e i s c o m p l e t e d . T h e r e a r e , o f c o u r s e , s o u n d r e a s o n s f o r f a v o u r i n g s u c h s t e p s t o s p e e d up t h e d e p l o y m e n t o f t h i s s y s t e m . S u c c e s s f u l d e v e l o p m e n t may f o r c e a n a g g r e s s o r t o e x p e n d a d d i t i o n a l r e -s o u r c e s t o i n c r e a s e h i s I.C.B.M. f o r c e . I t w o u l d a l s o make a c c u r a t e e s t i m a t e s o f o u r d e f e n s i v e c a p a b i l i t i e s more d i f f i c u l t f o r a p o t e n t i a l enemy a n d i t w o u l d c o m p l i c a t e t h e a c h i e v e m e n t o f a s u c c e s s f u l a t t a c k . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e p r o t e c t i o n t h a t i t w o u l d p r o v i d e , e v e n i f f o r o n l y a p o r t i o n o f o u r p o p u l a t i o n , w o u l d be b e t t e r t h a n none a t a l l . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , he c o n t i n u e d , " t h e r e a r e s t i l l w i d e s p r e a d 118. d o u b t s a s t o w h e t h e r t h e N i k e - Z e u s s y s t e m s h o u l d e v e r b e d e p l o y e d , " a n d he was i n c l i n e d t o s h a r e t h e s e d o u b t s : T h e r e i s s t i l l c o n s i d e r a b l e u n c e r t a i n t y a s t o i t s t e c h n i c a l f e a s i b i l i t y a n d , e v e n i f s u c c e s s f u l l y d e v e l o p e d , t h e r e a r e many s e r i o u s o p e r a t i n g p r o -b l e m s y e t t o be s o l v e d . The s y s t e m , i t s e l f , i s v u l n e r a b l e t o b a l l i s t i c m i s s i l e a t t a c k a n d i t s e f f e c t i v e n e s s c o u l d be d e g r a d e d b y t h e u s e o f more s o p h i s t i c a t e d I.C.B.M.s s c r e e n e d b y m u l t i p l e d e c o y s . S a t u r a t i o n o f t h e t a r g e t i s a n o t h e r p o s -s i b i l i t y , a s I.C.B.M.s become e a s i e r a n d c h e a p e r t o p r o d u c e i n c o m i n g y e a r s . F i n a l l y , i t i s a v e r y e x p e n s i v e s y s t e m i n r e l a t i o n to^^-Q d e g r e e o f p r o t e c t i o n t h a t i t c a n f u r n i s h . I I I . NEW PERSPECTIVES ON THE GOALS OF AMERICAN STRATEGIC FORCES P e r h a p s t h e m o s t b a s i c d e c i s i o n , t h o u g h , t h e one w h i c h w o u l d c r e a t e a c o n c r e t e a n d c o h e r e n t n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y , b y r e l a t i n g t h e s e d e c i s i o n s o n weapons s y s t e m s a n d f o r c e l e v e l s t o t h e o b j e c t i v e s w h i c h t h e y w e r e t o a c c o m p l i s h , h a d n o t y e t b e e n f o r m u l a t e d d e f i n i t i v e l y . A t t h e same t i m e , t h e r e w e r e a number o f d i s t i n c t i n t i m a -t i o n s o f a n i m p e n d i n g c h a n g e i n t h e d i r e c t i o n o f A m e r i c a n n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y . McNamara, t h o u g h s t i l l r e f u s i n g t o •* commit h i m s e l f t o a n y p a r t i c u l a r s t r a t e g y , h a d commis-s i o n e d a number o f s t u d i e s w h i c h r e f l e c t e d some i n t e r e s t i n t h e c o u n t e r f o r c e p o s i t i o n a n d g r e a t ^ i n t e r e s t i n f l e x i -119. b i l i t y i n t h e r a t e o f r e t a l i a t i o n . K e n n e d y h a d gone e v e n f a r t h e r , r e a d i l y a c c e p t i n g , a n d e v e n a n t i c i p a t i n g , many o f t h e r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s o f t h e s t r a t e g i c r e a s s e s s m e n t s t h e n u n d e r w a y . A. CONSENSUS ON OVER-ALL POLICY; THE N I T Z E REPORT The f i r s t i m p o r t a n t r e - a s s e s s m e n t , t h e N i t z e R e p o r t , was s u b m i t t e d t o K e n n e d y w h i l e he was s t i l l P r e s i d e n t - e l e c t . A c c o r d i n g t o S c h l e s i n g e r : T h i s r e p o r t p r o v i d e d a n i n c i s i v e a n a l y s i s o f t h e c a s e f o r a more d i v e r s i f i e d d e f e n s e p o s t u r e . I t t h e n o f f e r e d u s e f u l d e s c r i p t i o n s o f t h e r e l a t i o n -s h i p b e t w e e n d e f e n s e p o l i c y a n d d i s a r m a m e n t a n d o f t h e b a l a n c e - o f - p a y m e n t s p r o b l e m b e f o r e c o h c l u d - ^ Q i n g w i t h some s k e t c h y p a r a g r a p h s o n f o r e i g n p o l i c y . M o re s p e c i f i c d i r e c t e v i d e n c e o n t h e c o n t e n t o f t h i s r e p o r t , u n f o r t u n a t e l y , i s l a c k i n g , b u t t h e r e i s some i n d i r e c t e v i d e n c e o n t h e l i n e o f a r g u m e n t w h i c h i t a d v a n c e d . O n l y a few months b e f o r e t h e 1960 e l e c t i o n s , w h i l e N i t z e was s t i l l a p r o f e s s o r , h e h a d w r i t t e n a s t u d y o n t h e p r o p e r r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n A m e r i c a n f o r e i g n a n d d e f e n s e p o l i c y i n t h e c o l d w a r . E n t i t l e d P o l i t i c a l A s p e c t s o f N a t i o n a l  S t r a t e g y , i t made a s t r o n g c a s e f o r t r a n s c e n d i n g a p u r e l y c o u n t e r v a l u e s t r a t e g y i n o r d e r t o meet t h e c h a l l e n g e o f " S p u t n i k d i p l o m a c y . " 120.. A c c o r d i n g t o h i m , t h e c o r e o b j e c t i v e o f t h e S o v i e t l e a d e r s was t o m a i n t a i n t h e i r p ower i n t h e U.S.S.R. A f t e r t h i s , t h e y s o u g h t c o n t r o l o v e r t h e c o m m u n i s t b l o c a n d , f i n a l l y , t h e w e a k e n i n g o f a n y o t h e r p o w e r s w h i c h 31 . mxght p r e s e n t a t h r e a t t o them. A s l o n g a s R u s s i a was c o m p a r a t i v e l y weak, h e r l e a d e r s h a d b e e n e x t r e m e l y c a u t i o u s i n p u r s u i n g t h i s l a s t o b j e c t i v e f o r f e a r o f j e o p a r d i z i n g 32 t h e o t h e r , more i m p o r t a n t o n e s . B y t h e t i m e K h r u s h c h e v came t o p o w e r , some o f t h e i r o r i g i n a l i d e o l o g i c a l f e r v o r h a d b e e n d i s s i p a t e d , b u t i t h a d a l s o b e e n i n s t i t u t i o n a l -i z e d i n t h e p a r t y b u r e a u c r a c y , w h i l e r e c e n t a d v a n c e s i n t h e e c o n o m i c a n d m i l i t a r y p ower a v a i l a b l e t o them made i t 33 p o s s i b l e t o p u r s u e a more a g g r e s s i v e f o r e i g n p o l i c y . S e e k i n g t o e s t a b l i s h a p o s i t i o n i n w h i c h t h e y c o u l d " n e g o t i a t e f r o m s t r e n g t h , " t h e y w o u l d p r o b a b l y c o n t i n u e t o s t r i v e f o r n u c l e a r s u p e r i o r i t y a n d , i n d e e d , t h e y m i g h t e v e n t u a l l y b e l i e v e t h e m s e l v e s s u f f i c i e n t l y p o w e r f u l t o t r y t o d i s a r m t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s b y a s u r p r i s e a t t a c k 34 u p o n h e r s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s . W h i l e e m p h a s i z i n g t h a t t h i s s i t u a t i o n c a l l e d f o r more e n e r g e t i c e f f o r t s t o p r o t e c t t h e A m e r i c a n c o u n t e r -v a l u e c a p a b i l i t y , N i t z e a l s o a r g u e d t h a t s u c h a c a p a b i l i t y 121. a l o n e m i g h t be i n a d e q u a t e . • " I s u s p e c t , " h e w r o t e , " t h a t i f we r e l y m e r e l y o n a c l a s s B c a p a b i l i t y ( a c o u n t e r v a l u e c a p a b i l i t y ) t h e R u s s i a n s may be a b l e t o t e s t o u r r e s o l u t -i o n s p i e c e m e a l a n d o v e r t i m e i n s u c h a way t h a t o u r r e s -p o n s e m i g h t w e l l be q u i t e d i f f e r e n t f r o m t h e e x p e c t e d 35 r e s p o n s e t o a s u d d e n a t t a c k . " T h i s c o n s i d e r a t i o n , a n d a c o n c e r n f o r l i m i t i n g damage t o t h e A m e r i c a n p e o p l e i f w a r b r o k e o u t , l e d h i m t o c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s s h o u l d i d e a l l y h a v e a c a p a c i t y " s u b s t a n t i a l l y t o d i s a r m t h e enemy w h i l e p r e s e r v i n g o u r own e s s e n t i a l c o r e a s a n a t i o n c a p a b l e o f e x e r c i s i n g p o l i c y a n d t h e r e b y l e a v i n g t h e enemy no p r a c t i c a l c h o i c e b u t t o accommodate h i m s e l f t o o u r . . . 36 p o l i t i c a l w i l l . " O b v i o u s l y , a t h o r o u g h g o i n g c o u n t e r f o r c e c a p a b i l i t y w o u l d be n e c e s s a r y i n o r d e r t o a c c o m p l i s h t h i s , a n d N i t z e was r e a l i s t i c e n o u g h t o a c k n o w l e d g e t h a t s u c h a c a p a b i l i t y 37 was p r o b a b l y i m p o s s i b l e . H a v i n g r e l u c t a n t l y made t h i s a d m i s s i o n , h e s t i l l a s s e r t e d t h a t i t was t e c h n i c a l l y p o s -s i b l e f o r t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t o a c h i e v e a t l e a s t a p a r t i a l 3 8 c o u n t e r f o r c e c a p a b i l i t y . I n v i e w o f t h i s , a n d i n v i e w o f t h e a g g r e s s i v e n e s s o f enemy f o r e i g n a n d d e f e n s e p o l i c y , h e c o n c l u d e d t h a t h i s c o u n t r y s h o u l d a t t a i n s u c h a c a p a b i l i t y . 1 2 2 . T h i s , h e h o p e d , w o u l d d e m o n s t r a t e t h e A m e r i c a n w i l l t o r e s i s t a n d , i f d e t e r r e n c e f a i l e d , w o u l d " p r o t e c t t h e p a r -i t i c u l a r l i m i t s w i t h i n w h i c h we m i g h t c h o o s e t o f i g h t a l i m i t e d w a r a g a i n s t e x p a n s i o n t o some o t h e r l e v e l b y t h e 39 o t h e r s i d e . " S u c h a p r e s e n t a t i o n was b o u n d t o make a n i m p r e s -s i o n o n K e n n e d y , who h a d b e e n p u t t i n g f o r w a r d s i m i l a r , i f l e s s s o p h i s t i c a t e d , a r g u m e n t s f o r t h e l a s t t h r e e y e a r s ; t o t e l l h i m t h a t " n e g o t i a t i o n f r o m s t r e n g t h " was t h e o n l y way o f d e a l i n g w i t h " S p u t n i k d i p l o m a c y , " a n d t h a t some p r o v i s -i o n m u s t be made f o r l i m i t i n g t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f a c e n t r a l w a r , was t o p r e a c h t o t h e c o n v e r t e d . I f t h e r e was a d e f i n i t e c o n s e n s u s o n t h e s e i s s u e s , h o w e v e r , a n d i f t h e r e was a r a t h e r b r o a d a g r e e m e n t t h a t t h e mos t a p p r o p r i a t e s t r a t e g i c p o s t u r e l a y somewhere b e t w e e n a n i n a d e q u a t e c o u n t e r v a l u e p o s t u r e a n d a n i m p o s s i b l e c o u n t e r f o r c e o n e , t h e r e was s t i l l u n c e r t a i n t y a b o u t t h e r e q u i s i t e f o r c e l e v e l s a n d t h e e x a c t m e t h o d s o f t a c t i c a l e m p l o y m e n t w h i c h c o u l d b e s t a c h i e v e t h e d e s i r e d p o l i t i c a l o b j e c t i v e s . 6. THE PROBLEM OF IMPLEMENTING THIS POLICY As a f i r s t s t e p i n r e m e d y i n g t h e s e l a c u n a e , 1 2 3 . McNamara o r d e r e d N i t z e , whom h e h a d a p p o i n t e d A s s i s t a n t S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e f o r : I n t e r n a t i o n a l S e c u r i t y A f f a i r s , a n d G e n e r a l Lyman L e m n i t z e r , T w i n i n g ' s s u c c e s s o r a s C h a i r -man o f t h e J.C. S., t o : P r e p a r e a d r a f t memorandum r e v i s i n g t h e b a s i c n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y p o l i c i e s a n d a s s u m p t i o n s r e -l a t i n g t o ' c o u n t e r f o r c e ' s t r i k e s a n d ^ h e i n i t i a -t i o n o f t h e u s e o f t a c t i c a l w e a p o n s . C l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h i s , a n d e q u a l l y i m p o r t a n t , h e h a d a l s o g i v e n L e m n i t z e r a f u r t h e r t a s k : P r e p a r e a " D o c t r i n e 1 w h i c h , i f a c c e p t e d , w o u l d p e r m i t c o n t r o l l e d r e s p o n s e a n d n e g o t i a t i n g p a u s e s i n t h e e v e n t o f t h e r m o n u c l e a r a t t a c k . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e s e i n s t r u c t i o n s w e r e n o t i s s u e d u n t i l M a r c h 6, 1 9 6 1 , a n d b o t h s t u d i e s w e r e n o t due u n t i l s e v e r a l w e eks a f t e r t h e P r e s i d e n t was t o p r e s e n t h i s message o n t h e d e f e n s e b u d g e t . I n c o n s e q u e n c e , a s t h e h e a r i n g s o n t h i s b u d g e t r e -v e a l e d , t h e new S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e was s t i l l u n d e c i d e d on a number o f s t r a t e g i c i s s u e s . R e p l y i n g t o a q u e s t i o n b y a member o f t h e House Armed S e r v i c e s C o m m i t t e e a b o u t h i s p o s i t i o n o n t h e c u r r e n t t a r g e t i n g c o n t r o v e r s y , h e s a i d : I d o n ' t b e l i e v e t h a t t h e t e r m s ' f i n i t e d e t e r r e n t ' (a c o u n t e r v a l u e p o l i c y ) a n d ' c o u n t e r f o r c e ' a r e u s e d 124. s u f f i c i e n t l y c o n s i s t e n t l y o r p r e c i s e l y t o w a r r a n t a n a p p l i c a t i o n o f e i t h e r one o f them t o t h e p r o g r a m t h a t I am p r e s e n t i n g t o y o u . I w o u l d s i m p l y s u m m a r i z e t h e p r o g r a m I p r e s e n t e d a n d t h e p r o g r a m t h e P r e s i d e n t recommended a s b e i n g a p r o g r a m w h i c h w i l l p e r m i t t h e s u r v i v a b i l i t y o f a s u b -s t a n t i a l e l e m e n t o f •• t h e f o r c e s u f f i c i e n t t o a s s u r e t h a t a f t e r a s u r p r i s e a t t a c k o u r f o r c e i s g r e a t e n o u g h t o d e s t r o y t h e a t t a c k e r , t h a t i s , d e s t r o y i t s w a r m a k i n g c a p a c i t y a n d ^ h e r e b y a c t a s a d e t e r r e n t t o a s t r i k e a g a i n s t u s . T h i s s t a t e m e n t o b v i o u s l y i n d i c a t e d a b e l i e f i n t h e o v e r r i d i n g n e c e s s i t y f o r a s e c o n d - s t r i k e c a p a b i l i t y ; i n d e e d , McNamara h a d e a r l i e r c h a r a c t e r i z e d a n i n v u l n e r a b l e s t r a t e g i c f o r c e as " a h a b s o l u t e e s s e n t i a l e l e m e n t o f b e l i e v a b i l i t y 43 a n d c r e d i b i l i t y o f o u r d e t e r r e n t . " N e v e r t h e l e s s , h i s f a i l u r e t o d e f i n e t h e n a t u r e o f t h e " w a r m a k i n g c a p a b i l i t y " w h i c h was t o be d e s t r o y e d - w h e t h e r i t was t o be S o v i e t s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s , t h e p o p u l a t i o n a n d i n d u s t r y w h i c h c r e a t e d them, o r b o t h - i l l u s t r a t e d h i s h e s i t a t i o n o n t h e u l t i m a t e p r o b l e m o f t a r g e t i n g . W h i l e h e a c k n o w l e d g e d t h a t t h i s p r o b l e m was c r u c i a l , h e a l s o a d m i t t e d t h a t h e was n o t y e t c e r t a i n a b o u t t h e l e v e l o f d e s t r u c t i o n w h i c h t h e R u s s i a n s 44 a n d C h i n e s e deemed t o b e u n a c c e p t a b l e . A s a r e s u l t , h e a l s o was u n w i l l i n g t o c o m m i t h i m s e l f t o a more s p e c i f i c p o l i c y u n t i l he h a d s e e n t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e s t u d i e s t h e n i n 125. p r o g r e s s . K e n n e d y was less t e n t a t i v e i n h i s p r o n o u n c e m e n t s . A d m i t t e d l y , i n h i s M a r c h 28 m e s s a g e , he h a d s t r e s s e d t h e n e e d f o r a s e c o n d - s t r i k e c a p a b i l i t y w i t h o u t e x p l i c i t l y 45 d e f i n i n g t h e m i s s i o n s d e s i g n a t e d f o r t h a t c a p a b i l i t y . He w e n t f a r t h e r t h a n h i s S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e , h o w e v e r , i n i n t i m a t i n g t h a t a g r e a t e r m a r g i n o f n u c l e a r s u p e r i o r i t y w o u l d be t h e o r d e r o f t h e d a y i n f u t u r e . R e p e a t i n g a number o f e a r l i e r t h e m e s , he s t r e s s e d t h a t t h e A m e r i c a n s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s must be s o p o w e r f u l a s t o " c o n v i n c e a l l p o t e n t i a l a g g r e s s o r s t h a t a n y a t t a c k w o u l d be f u t i l e , " t o " r e d u c e t h e d a n g e r o f i r r a t i o n a l o r u n p r e m e d i t a t e d g e n e r a l w a r , " a n d t o s t r e n g t h e n A m e r i c a n d i p l o m a t i c p o w e r . M o r e o v e r w i t h Moscow's r e c e n t w i t h d r a w a l o f i t s p r e v i o u s c o n c e s s i o n s i n t h e G e n e v a t e s t b a n n e g o t i a t i o n s , a n d w i t h i t s s i m u l t a n e o u s p r o p o s a l t h a t a n y a g r e e m e n t be s u p e r v i s e d b y a t r i p a r t i t e b o d y h a m s t r u n g b y a u n a n i m i t y r u l e , K e n n e d y was i n no mood t o h o l d b a c k t h e e x p a n s i o n 47 of. A m e r i c a n a r m a m e n t s . T h u s , when he s t a t e d t h a t h i s c o u n t r y m u s t " i n s u r e t h e a d e q u a c y o f o u r b a r g a i n i n g power f o r a n end t o t h e arms r a c e , " he was i n e f f e c t r e a f f i r m -i n g t h e n e c e s s i t y f o r e x p a n s i o n o f A m e r i c a n s t r a t e g i c 126 i p o w e r as a p r e c o n d i t i o n f o r g e n u i n e p r o g r e s s i n n e g o t i a t -48 i o n s o n arms c o n t r o l a n d d i s a r m a m e n t . F i n a l l y , a n d m o s t s i g n i f i c a n t , h e p o i n t e d t o t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t c o n t r o l o v e r t h e t a r g e t s t o be a t t a c k e d a n d t h e r a t e a t w h i c h t h e y w e r e d e s t r o y e d m i g h t i m p r o v e t h e c h a n c e s t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s c o u l d s u r v i v e , a n d e v e n p r o t e c t h e r p o l i t i c a l i n t e r e s t s , i f t h e d e t e r r -e n t b r o k e down: Our weapons s y s t e m s must be u s a b l e i n a manner p e r m i t t i n g d e l i b e r a t i o n a n d d i s c r i m i n a t i o n a s t o t i m i n g , s c o p e , a n d t a r g e t s i n r e s p o n s e t o c i v i l i a n a u t h o r i t y : a n d o u r d e f e n s e s m u s t be s e c u r e a g a i n s t p r o l o n g e d r e - a t t a c k a s w e l l a s a s u r p r i s e f i r s t s t r i k e . I n s h o r t K e n n e d y p r o c l a i m e d a b e l i e f t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s c o u l d g a i n maximum s e c u r i t y t h r o u g h a c o m b i n a t i o n o f s t r e n g t h a n d f l e x i b i l i t y i n e m p l o y i n g t h a t s t r e n g t h . 127. BUILDING A C A P A B I L I T Y FOR COERCIVE DETERRENCE: THE FALLOUT SHELTER PROGRAM AND THE F I S C A L  YEAR 1963 BUDGET The P r e s i d e n t ' s c o n v i c t i o n was r e i n f o r c e d a n d d e v e l o p e d i n f u r t h e r d e t a i l i n t h e months b e t w e e n t h e s e a n n o u n c e m e n t s a n d t h e Cuban m i s s i l e c r i s i s . S i m i l a r l y , w h i l e s t i l l f o r c e f u l l y o p p o s i n g A i r F o r c e a r g u m e n t s f o r a f u l l c o u n t e r f o r c e c a p a b i l i t y , McNamara came t o s h a r e h i s c h i e f ' s e n t h u s i a s m f o r c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e . T e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s was i n some m e a s u r e r e s p o n -s i b l e f o r t h i s , i n a s m u c h a s i t i n d i c a t e d t h e c o n t i n u i n g s u p e r i o r i t y o f t h e A m e r i c a n r e s e a r c h a n d d e v e l o p m e n t p r o g r a m a n d o f t h e s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s w h i c h f o l l o w e d i n i t s wake. T r a n s l a t e d i n t o t e r m s o f t a n g i b l e m i l i t a r y e f f e c t i v e n e s s , h o w e v e r , i t seemed t h a t t h i s s u p e r i o r i t y w o u l d a l w a y s be r e l a t i v e l y s l i g h t ; a l l b u t t h e m o s t w i l d l y o p t i m i s t i c e s t i m a t e s i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , l i k e t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , w o u l d i n e v i t a b l y be d e s t r o y e d a s a v i a b l e s o c i e t y i n t h e e v e n t o f a n a l l - o u t n u c l e a r c o n -f l i c t . The e s s e n t i a l f o r c e i n t h e a s c e n d a n c e o f c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e was p o l i t i c a l , r a t h e r t h a n t e c h n i c a l , a n a l y s i s , 128. f o r i t was t h i s f a c t o r w h i c h j u s t i f i e d t h e enormous e x -p e n s e i n v o l v e d i n p u r s u i n g w h a t w o u l d a t b e s t be a mar-g i n a l damage l i m i t i n g c a p a c i t y . A l t h o u g h t h e y r e a l i z e d t h a t t h e S o v i e t U n i o n d i d n o t w a n t a t h e r m o n u c l e a r w a r , K e n n e d y a n d McNamara w e r e more c o n c e r n e d b y t h e d a n g e r s i n h e r e n t i n h e r a p p a r e n t b e l i e f t h a t A m e r i c a was e v e n more f e a r f u l o f s u c h a c a t a c l y s m , a n d i n h e r c o n c o m i t a n t p e n c h a n t f o r " S p u t n i k d i p l o m a c y . " M o r e o v e r , a l t h o u g h t h e y b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e K r e m l i n saw i t s c o u n t e r v a l u e c a p a -b i l i t y a s t h e u l t i m a t e g u a r a n t e e o f i t s s e c u r i t y , t h e y a l s o b e l i e v e d t h a t i t s t i l l h o p e d t o t r a n s c e n d t h i s c a p a b i l i t y i n o r d e r t o g a i n f i n a l v i c t o r y i n t h e C o l d War. C o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e was b o r n p r i m a r i l y f r o m t h e s e p r o b l e m s ; i t was d e s i g n e d t o make a t l e a s t some p r o v i s i o n a g a i n s t t h e d i s t i n c t p o s s i b i l i t y o f . a n u c l e a r h o l o c a u s t , a n d t o l e s s e n t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f s u c h a h o l o c a u s t b y c o n -v i n c i n g Moscow o f t h e p e r i l o u s f u t i l i t y o f b o t h " S p u t n i k d i p l o m a c y " a n d i t s q u e s t f o r s u p e r i o r i t y i n t h e arms r a c e . C l o s e l y l i n k e d t o t h i s , t h o u g h , i t was a l s o d e s i g n e d t o q u i e t t h e N.A.T.O. a l l i e s ' d o u b t s a b o u t t h e c r e d i b i l i t y o f t h e A m e r i c a n g u a r a n t e e , t o e n c o u r a g e t h e m t o s t r e n g t h e n t h e i r n o n - n u c l e a r f o r c e s , a n d , b o u n d up w i t h I 129. both of these concerns, to minimize the disruptive poten-t i a l of the French force de frappe. F i n a l l y , Kennedy and McNamara also adopted coercive deterrence i n an e f f o r t to convince the American public of the permanent su p e r i o r i t y of t h e i r arms; only then would the danger of popular fears over various weapons "gaps," occasioned by periodic Russian strategic advances and by the d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n of many m i l i t a r y men with the shape of current defense budgets, be allayed. I. THE FALLOUT SHELTER PROGRAM The f i r s t major step i n the construction of a c a p a b i l i t y for coercive deterrence was taken only two months afte r Kennedy's message on the f i s c a l year 1962 defense budget. Karl Kaysen, his Deputy Special Assistant for National Security, had e a r l i e r raised the question of c i v i l defense i n a study which concluded that the United States should either r e v i t a l i z e her half-hearted and i n -e f f e c t u a l e f f o r t s i n this sphere or cease them e n t i r e l y . 1 As he had previously shown l i t t l e i n t e r e s t i n t h i s question, Kennedy probably would not have acted on Kaysen's study at th i s time, had i t not been for the tensions created by the 130. B a y o f P i g s f i a s c o . H a v i n g p r e s i d e d o v e r a n a d v e n t u r e w h i c h h a d c a u s e d b o t h f r i e n d s a n d o p p o n e n t s t o q u e s t i o n h i s j u d g m e n t a n d f i r m n e s s o f p u r p o s e , K e n n e d y was more c o n c e r n e d t h a n e v e r a b o u t t h e d a n g e r o f w a r b y m i s c a l -c u l a t i o n a n d a b o u t t h e n e e d t o l i m i t damage i n t h e e v e n t o f s u c h a w a r . C i v i l d e f e n s e , o r more s p e c i f i c a l l y a n a t i o n a l s y s t e m o f f a l l o u t s h e l t e r s , seemed t o o f f e r a t l e a s t a p a r t i a l s o l u t i o n t o t h e s e p r o b l e m s a nd t o t h e e x i g e n c i e s o f d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c s . On t h e one h a n d , i t a p p e a r e d t h a t s u c h a s y s t e m w o u l d a f f o r d some d e g r e e o f p r o t e c t i o n w i t h o u t p r o v o c a t i o n . A c c o r d i n g t o McNamara, i t c o u l d s a v e b e t w e e n t e n a n d f i f t e e n m i l l i o n l i v e s , a n d t h i s i n t u r n m i g h t h e l p t o s t r e n g t h e n A m e r i c a ' s d e t e r r e n t b y s y m b o l i z i n g h e r w i l l 2 . t o r e s i s t . A t t h e same t i m e , h e a l s o p o i n t e d o u t t h a t p r o n o u n c e m e n t s b y h i s S o v i e t c o u n t e r p a r t i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h i s m e a s u r e w o u l d n o t e n h a n c e Moscow's p e r c e p t i o n o f 3 t h r e a t . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , a n d somewhat l e s s i m p o r t a n t , S o r e n s e n w r o t e o f t h e more p o l i t i c a l l y - m i n d e d - K e n n e d y : N o r was he u n m i n d f u l o f t h e f a c t t h a t New Y o r k ' s G o v e r n o r N e l s o n . R o c k e f e l l e r , . w h o a p p e a r e d t h e n t o be h i s m o s t l i k e l y o p p o n e n t i n 1964, was c r i t i c i s -i n g t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ' s ' c o m p l a c e n c y ' i n much 1 3 1 . t h e same t e r m s K e n n e d y ^ h a d a p p l i e d t o t h e ' m i s s i l e gap' i n e a r l i e r y e a r s . S t r a t e g i c p r u d e n c e and p o l i t i c a l e x p e d i e n c e , t h e n , l e d t h e P r e s i d e n t t o a n n o u n c e o n May 25 t h a t h e h a d t r i p l e d t h e a p p r o p r i a t i o n s r e q u e s t e d f o r c i v i l d e f e n s e i n o r d e r t o e s t a b l i s h a n a t i o n - w i d e n e t w o r k o f f a l l o u t s h e l t e r s . As a s y m b o l o f t h e i m p o r t a n c e w h i c h h e a t t a c h e d t o t h i s p r o g r a m , and o f h i s d e s i r e t o c o - o r d i n a t e i t w i t h o t h e r m a j o r c o m p o n e n t s o f A m e r i c a n n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y , he a l s o t r a n s f e r r e d r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r i t f r o m t h e c i v i l i a n O f f i c e o f C i v i l D e f e n s e M o b i l i z a t i o n t o t h e S e c r e t a r y o f 5 D e f e n s e . E v e n t s i n t h e s p r i n g a n d summer c o n f i r m e d t h e A m e r i c a n d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s i n t h i s c o u r s e . K e n n e d y ' s summit m e e t i n g w i t h K h r u s h c h e v i n V i e n n a h a d b e e n v a s t l y u n e n -c o u r a g i n g . C o n f r o n t e d b y d e a d l o c k on i s s u e s s u c h a s t h e t e s t b a n t r e a t y a n d t h e f u t u r e s h a p e o f t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s .1 • e x e c u t i v e , f a c e d w i t h t h e t h r e a t o f a s e p a r a t e t r e a t y w i t h E a s t Germany i f t h e q u e s t i o n o f B e r l i n was n o t s e t t l e d b y t h e e n d o f 1 9 6 1 , a n d f e a r i n g t h a t a S o v i e t b e l i e f i n h i s own i r r e s o l u t i o n h a d c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h i s i n t r a n s i g e n c e , K e n n e d y was y e t f u r t h e r c o n v i n c e d o f t h e 1 3 2 . n e c e s s i t y f o r " n e g o t i a t i o n f r o m s t r e n g t h " a n d f o r i n s u r a n c e 6 a g a i n s t n u c l e a r w a r . F a r more s e r i o u s , h o w e v e r , was t h e B e r l i n c r i s i s w h i c h f o l l o w e d t h e P r e s i d e n t ' s r e t u r n f r o m V i e n n a , a n d w h i c h c u l m i n a t e d i n t h e e r e c t i o n o f a w a l l d i v i d i n g t h a t c i t y . E m p h a s i z i n g t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h i s c r i s i s f o r A m e r i c a n v i t a l i n t e r e s t s , he t o l d P r e s i d e n t K e k k o n e n o f F i n l a n d t h a t t h e R u s s i a n s ' p o l i c y t o w a r d t h a t c i t y " i s d e s i g n e d t o n e u t r a l i z e W est Germany a s a f i r s t s t e p i n t h e n e u t r a l i z a t i o n o f W e s t e r n E u r o p e . T h a t i s 7 w h a t makes t h e p r e s e n t s i t u a t i o n s o d a n g e r o u s . " So g r a v e d i d t h e s i t u a t i o n seem t o h i m , i n d e e d , t h a t P i e r r e S a l i n g e r , h i s P r e s s S e c r e t a r y , h a s r e c o r d e d t h a t " I t was J . F. K . ' s , p r i v a t e a s s e s s m e n t t h a t t h e o dds w e r e .one i n f i v e t h a t t h e W a l l a n d o u r r e a c t i o n t o i t m i g h t h a v e 8 i g n i t e d W o r l d War I I I . " U n d e r t h e s e c o n d i t i o n s , h e r e n e w e d h i s r e q u e s t f o r a f a l l o u t s h e l t e r p r o g r a m o n J u l y 25, a n d a h i t h e r t o r e l u c t a n t C o n g r e s s now a p p r o v e d 9 t h e n e c e s s a r y f u n d s w i t h d i s p a t c h . I I . THE F I S C A L YEAR 1963 DEFENSE BUDGET: THE B I D FOR  NUCLEAR "SUPERIORITY," AND CONTINUED REJECTION  OF COUNTERFORCE ARGUMENTS A. CONTINUING OBSTACLES TO A COUNTERFORCE C A P A B I L I T Y 133 The m o s t c r u c i a l d e c i s i o n s , h o w e v e r , w e r e y e t t o come. K e n n e d y a n d McNamara r e a l i z e d t h a t e v e n a t h o r o u g h -g o i n g s y s t e m o f f a l l o u t s h e l t e r s c o u l d n o t e n s u r e s u r v i v a l a s a v i a b l e s o c i e t y i n t h e a b s e n c e o f p r o t e c t i o n a g a i n s t b l a s t a n d t h e r m a l e f f e c t s , a n d b o t h men r e c o g n i z e d t h a t . 10 . . s u c h p r o t e c t i o n was a l l b u t i m p o s s i b l e . C i v i l d e f e n s e , t h e r e f o r e , c o u l d e f f e c t o n l y m a r g i n a l damage l i m i t a t i o n , a n d i t c o u l d y i e l d o n l y a r e l a t i v e l y m i n o r i m p r o v e m e n t i n A m e r i c a ' s d e t e r r e n t o r h e r d i p l o m a t i c power. 1"'" Hopes f o r d e c i s i v e a d v a n c e s i n t h e s e a r e a s c o n s e q u e n t l y f o c u s e d o n t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f d e c i m a t i n g enemy s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s b e f o r e t h e y r e a c h e d A m e r i c a n c i t i e s . One m e thod o f a c h i e v i n g t h i s o b j e c t i v e , o f c o u r s e , m i g h t h a v e b e e n a n a c t i v e d e f e n s e a g a i n s t m i s s i l e s , t h a t i s t o s a y a n e f f i c i e n t A.B.M. s y s t e m . A l t h o u g h a number o f w r i t e r s l a t e r s u g g e s t e d t h a t f e a r o f a n a c c e l e r a t e d arms r a c e g a v e McNamara a n a p r i o r i h o s t i l i t y t o N i k e - Z e u s a n d i n d e e d t o a l l A.B.M. s y s t e m s , t h e . e v i d e n c e a v a i l a b l e 12 p o i n t s t o a d i f f e r e n t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n . On A u g u s t 3 0, 1961 R u s s i a h a d r e s u m e d n u c l e a r 134. t e s t i n g i n t h e a t m o s p h e r e . D u r i n g t h e e n s u i n g d e b a t e o n w h e t h e r o r n o t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s s h o u l d f o l l o w s u i t , t h e p o s s i b l e b e n e f i t s f o r t h e A m e r i c a n A.B.M. p r o g r a m s o o n b e -came a c e n t r a l i s s u e . McNamara, w h i l e a c k n o w l e d g i n g t h a t i t was n o t a b s o l u t e l y e s s e n t i a l , j o i n e d w i t h t h e J . C.S. j i n u r g i n g t h a t t h e r e was a m i l i t a r y r e q u i r e m e n t f o r r e -s u m p t i o n , a n d t h a t p a r t o f t h i s r e q u i r e m e n t was b a l l i s t i c 13 m i s s i l e d e f e n s e . T h i s v e r y a r g u m e n t , h o w e v e r , i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e t e c h n i c a l p r o b l e m s a f f l i c t i n g N i k e - Z e u s w e r e s t i l l u n r e s o l v e d , a n d e v e n s o z e a l o u s a n a d v o c a t e o f c o u n t e r f o r c e d o c t r i n e s a s A i r F o r c e C h i e f o f S t a f f LeMay -r e f u s e d t o j o i n t h e Army i n i t s s o l i t a r y c a m p a i g n f o r a t l e a s t l i m i t e d d e p l o y m e n t o f t w e n t y - s i x N i k e - Z e u s . m i s s i l e s 14 a t t h a t t i m e . T h u s , t h e S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e e x p r e s s e d t h e m a j o r i t y o p i n i o n when he p o i n t e d t o u n c e r t a i n t i e s a b o u t t h e e f f e c t s o f n u c l e a r e x p l o s i o n s i n . t h e a t m o s p h e r e and t o t h e p r o b l e m s o f t a r g e t d i s c r i m i n a t i o n a n d i n t e r c e p t o r 15 s p e e d i n o n c e a g a i n r e f u s i n g t o d e p l o y N i k e - Z e u s . F u r t h e r m o r e , he a l s o r e f l e c t e d a c o n s e n s u s o n t h e f u t u r e o f m i s s i l e d e f e n s e i n t e l l i n g t h e S e n a t e Armed S e r v i c e s C o m m i t t e e t h a t "we must b e a r i n m i n d t h a t no m a t t e r how 135 much we s p e n d , we s i m p l y c a n n o t i n t h i s d a y a n d age p r o -1 v i d e a b s o l u t e d e f e n s e f o r t h e c o n t i n e n t a l U n i t e d S t a t e s . " I n v i e w o f t h i s , t h e o n l y r e m a i n i n g p o s s i b i l i t y a n d one s t r o n g l y e m p h a s i z e d b y t h e A i r F o r c e - was a s u p e r i o r i t y i n o f f e n s i v e weapons s u f f i c i e n t t o v i r t u a l l y a n n i h i l a t e enemy f o r c e s . I n s p i t e o f c o n t i n u e d e f f o r t s b y t h i s s e r v i c e t o c o n v i n c e K e n n e d y a n d McNamara o f t h e v a l u e o f bombers f o r s u c h a r o l e , b o t h men a g r e e d w i t h t h e i r p r e d e c e s s o r s o n t h e d e c i s i v e i m p o r t a n c e o f I.C.B.M.s 17 i n t h i s r e g a r d . C o n s e q u e n t l y , t h e s t r a t e g i c d e l i b e r a -t i o n s p r e c e d i n g t h e f i s c a l y e a r 1963 d e f e n s e b u d g e t t u r n e d e s s e n t i a l l y o n t h e number o f m i s s i l e s t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s s h o u l d a c q u i r e . McNamara a p p a r e n t l y t o o k t h e l e a d i n o p p o s i n g t h e enormous A i r F o r c e r e q u e s t ; a c c o r d i n g t o S c h l e s i n g e r , "he d i d n o t b e l i e v e t h a t d o u b l i n g o r e v e n t r i p l i n g o u r s t r i k i n g p ower w o u l d e n a b l e us t o d e s t r o y t h e h a r d e n e d m i s s i l e s i t e s o r m i s s i l e - l a u n c h i n g s u b m a r i n e s o f o u r 18 a d v e r s a r y . " The l i n e o f r e a s o n i n g w h i c h l e d h i m t o t h i s p o s i t i o n , a n d w h i c h l e d t h e P r e s i d e n t t o s u p p o r t h i m w h o l e h e a r t e d l y , was o u t l i n e d i n g r e a t e r d e t a i l b y 136. Sorensen: He and Kennedy agreed . . . that . . . to seek a ' f i r s t s t r i k e 1 c a p a b i l i t y - designed t h e o r e t i c a l l y to render the enemy incapable of damaging us severely, the kind of c a p a b i l i t y advocated i n some A i r Force quarters - was not only unnecessarily expensive and provocative but not r e a l l y f e a s i b l e . An enemy could always protect or conceal enough mis s i l e power to i n f l i c t at l e a s t t h i r t y to f i f t y m i l l i o n f a t a l i t i e s on this country, e s p e c i a l l y by using more submarine-launched m i s s i l e s . And he could e a s i l y o f f s e t our attempts to outbuild him ^ by increasing his own forqes as he saw ours grow. Given t h i s analysis, neither man had any i l l u s i o n s about the capacity of these systems, taken sin g l y or together, for ensuring the s u r v i v a l of t h e i r country i n a nuclear war. Thus, Kennedy declared: When that day (the outbreak of a nuclear war) comes, and there i s a massive exchange, then that i s the end, because you pre t a l k i n g about . . . 150 milligQ f a t a l i t i e s i n the f i r s t eighteen hours. McNamara was, i f anything, even more emphatic i n his re-f u s a l to accept the f a c i l e optimism of the counterforce school. "The Pentagon," he complained, " i s f u l l of papers t a l k i n g about the preservation of a 'viable society' a f t e r nuclear c o n f l i c t . That 'viable society' phrase drives me mad. I kept t r y i n g to comb i t out, but 21 i t keeps coming back." 137. B. CONCOMITANT DETERMINATION TO A T T A I N SOME DEGREE OF SUPERIORITY I N OFFENSIVE M I S S I L E S ' R e j e c t i o n o f c o u n t e r f o r c e a r g u m e n t s , h o w e v e r , d i d n o t n e c e s s a r i l y i n v o l v e r e s i g n a t i o n t o a p u r e l y c o u n t e r v a l u e s t r a t e g y . A d m i t t e d l y , McNamara s u b s e q u e n t l y c l a i m e d t h a t he a n d h i s c o l l e a g u e s i n , f a c t o p e r a t e d w i t h i n t h i s l a t t e r f r a m e w o r k i n f o r c e p l a n n i n g ; i n 1968 h e w r o t e : I h a v e n o t e d t h a t o u r p r e s e n t s u p e r i o r i t y i s g r e a t e r t h a n we h a d p l a n n e d . How t h i s came a b o u t i s a s i g n i f i c a n t i l l u s t r a t i o n o f t h e i n t r i n s i c d y n a m i c s o f t h e n u c l e a r arms r a c e . I n 1961 when I became S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e , t h e S o v i e t U n i o n h a d a v e r y s m a l l o p e r a t i o n a l a r s e n a l o f i n t e r - c o n t i n e n t a l m i s s i l e s . H o w e v e r , i t d i d p o s s e s s t h e t e c h n o l o g i c a l a n d i n d u s t r i a l c a p a c i t y t o e n l a r g e t h a t a r s e n a l v e r y s u b s t a n t i a l l y o v e r t h e s u c c e e d i n g s e v e r a l y e a r s . We h a d no e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e S o v i e t s d i d p l a n , i n f a c t , f u l l y t o u s e t h a t c a p a b i l i t y . B u t , a s I h a v e p o i n t e d o u t , a s t r a t e g i c p l a n n e r must be c o n s e r v a t i v e i n h i s c a l c u l a t i o n s ; t h a t i s , he m u s t p r e p a r e f o r t h e w o r s t p l a u s i b l e c a s e a n d n o t be c o n t e n t t o h o p e a n d p r e p a r e m e r e l y f o r t h e m o s t p r o b a b l e . S i n c e we c o u l d n o t b e c e r t a i n o f S o v i e t i n t e n t i o n s , s i n c e we c o u l d n o t be s u r e t h a t t h e y w o u l d n o t u n d e r t a k e a m a s s i v e b u i l d - u p , we h a d t o i n s u r e a g a i n s t s u c h a n e v e n t u a l i t y b y u n d e r t a k i n g a m a j o r b u i l d - u p o f o u r M i n u t e m a n a n d P o l a r i s f o r c e s . T h u s , i n t h e c o u r s e o f h e d g i n g a g a i n s t w h a t was o n l y a t h e o r e t i c a l l y p o s s i b l e S o v i e t b u i l d - u p , we t o o k d e c i s i o n s w h i c h r e s u l t e d i n o u r c u r r e n t s u p e r i o r i t y i n numbers o f w a r h e a d s a n d d e l i v e r -a b l e m e g a t o n s . B u t t h e b l u n t f a c t r e m a i n s t h a t i f we h a d h a d more a c c u r a t e i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t 1 3 8 . p l a n n e d S o v i e t s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s , we s i m p l y w o u l d n o t h a v e n e e d e d t o b u ^ J d up a s l a r g e a n u c l e a r a r s e n a l a s we h a v e t o d a y . W h i l e t h i s may h a v e b e e n a n a c c u r a t e r e f l e c t i o n o n h i s f e a r s i n 1968 o f a p e r p e t u a l a n d d e s t a b i l i z i n g c o m p e t i t i o n i n s t r a t e g i c a rms, a n d o f h i s c o n c o m i t a n t d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o c o n v i n c e t h e S o v i e t l e a d e r s o f h i s d e s i r e t o a r r e s t t h i s c o m p e t i t i o n , i t was h a r d l y a n a c c u r a t e d e s -c r i p t i o n o f A m e r i c a n c a l c u l a t i o n s i n 1 9 6 1 . F a r f r o m b e i n g a mere p r i s o n e r o f m i l i t a r y t e c h n o l o g y a n d u n c e r t a i n t y a b o u t enemy i n t e n t i o n s , a c o n f i d e n t a n d d e t e r m i n e d K e n n e d y A d m i n i s t r a t i o n h a d c o n s c i o u s l y d e c i d e d t o e m b r a c e c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e i n a n a t t e m p t t o meet t h e m o s t o u t s t a n d i n g t h r e a t s t o A m e r i c a n s e c u r i t y , a n d t o b u t t r e s s i t s own d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c a l p o s i t i o n . C a r l K a y s e n , who was a p a r t i c i p a n t i n t h e d e l i b e r a -t i o n s o n t h e f i s c a l y e a r 1963 d e f e n s e b u d g e t , o f f e r e d a v i e w o f i t w h i c h d i f f e r e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y f r o m t h e one c i t e d a b o v e . A c c o r d i n g t o . h i m , t h e o f f e n s i v e f o r c e s e n -v i s a g e d i n t h i s b u d g e t "were l a r g e r i n r e l a t i o n t o p r o j e c t e d S o v i e t f o r c e s t h a n w o u l d h a v e b e e n r e q u i r e d f o r minimum d e t e r r e n c e (a c o u n t e r v a l u e p o l i c y ) a l o n e , e v e n a l l o w i n g 139. f o r a g e n e r o u s m a r g i n o f u n c e r t a i n t y o n t h e g r o w t h o f S o v i e t f o r c e s , t h e i r e f f e c t i v e n e s s , a n d t h e p o s t - a t t a c k p e r f o r m a n c e o f o u r own p r o g r a m e d f o r c e s . The m a r g i n o v e r d e t e r r e n c e ( t h r o u g h a c o u n t e r v a l u e s t r a t e g y ) was j u s t i f i e d i n t e r m s o f t h e i d e a o f 'damage l i m i t a t i o n ' s h o u l d d e t e r r -23 f a i l . . . .." T h i s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n i s c o n f i r m e d b y - t h e e v i d e n c e a v a i l a b l e o n t h e a t t i t u d e s o f b o t h K e n n e d y a n d McNamara a t t h i s t i m e . S o r e n s e n h a s r e c o r d e d t h a t t h e S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e " i n e f f e c t a c k n o w l e d g e d t h a t h e was a g r e e i n g t o a n u c l e a r f o r c e a b o v e t h e l e v e l o f p u r e d e t e r r e n c e ( a c o u n t e r -v a l u e p o l i c y ) , b u t t h a t t h e a d d i t i o n s c o u l d be j u s t i f i e d as f o r c e s t o l i m i t t h e S o v i e t ' s a b i l i t y t o do f u r t h e r 24 damage s h o u l d d e t e r r e n c e f a i l . " M o r e o v e r , h e a l s o a r g u e d t h a t s u c h a c a p a c i t y t o l i m i t damage was n e c e s s a r y i n o r d e r t o s t r e n g t h e n t h e c r e d i b i l i t y o f t h e A m e r i c a n d e t e r r e n t : I f we b e l i e v e w h a t we s a y a b o u t b e i n g p r e p a r e d t o f i g h t a n a l l - o u t n u c l e a r w a r i f one s h o u l d be f o r c e d u p o n u s , t h e n we must t a k e w h a t e v e r r e a s o n a b l e m e a s u r e s j i - a r e a v a i l a b l e t o us t o p r o t e c t o u r p o p u -l a t i o n . 140. D e s p i t e S c h l e s i n g e r 1 s c o n t e n t i o n t h a t t h e P r e s i d -e n t a c c e p t e d t h e s e a r g u m e n t s o n l y r e l u c t a n t l y a n d w i t h some r e s e r v a t i o n s he was, t o s a y t h e l e a s t , i n w h o l e -: 26 h e a r t e d a g r e e m e n t w i t h h x s S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e . A s was s e e n e a r l i e r , K e n n e d y h a d a d o p t e d a s i m i l a r p o s i t i o n w e l l b e f o r e h i s e l e c t i o n s t o t h e P r e s i d e n c y , w h i l e h i s a c t i o n s i n t h e f i r s t h a l f o f 1961 a t t e s t e d t o h i s g r o w i n g i n c l i n c a t i o n t o t r a n s l a t e t h a t p o s i t i o n i n t o p o l i c y . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h i s S o r e n s e n h a s i n d i c a t e d t h a t h i s a t t i t u d e s h a d n o t c h a n g e d b y t h e autumn o f 1 9 6 1 . T h u s , he summar-i z e d K e n n e d y ' s c o n c e p t i o n o f a d e t e r r e n t c a p a b i l i t y a t t h i s t i m e a s one w h i c h c o u l d b o t h i n f l i c t u n a c c e p t a b l e damage o n t h e enemy's c i t i e s a n d l i m i t damage t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , t h e r e b y " d e n y i n g h i m a l l p r o s p e c t o f 27 v i c t o r y o r e v e n s u r v i v a l . " The g o a l o f " n u c l e a r s u p e r i o r i t y " - a t e r m w h i c h E i s e n h o w e r a nd h i s l i e u t e n a n t s h a d d e f i n e d i n f a c t a s a s e c u r e c o u n t e r v a l u e c a p a b i l i t y - h a d now b e e n r e -d e f i n e d t o i n c l u d e a c a p a c i t y f o r d e s t r o y i n g a s u b s t a n -t i a l p o r t i o n , t h o u g h b y no means t h e e n t i r e t y o f R u s s i a n s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s . W i t h t h i s , t h e s t r a t e g y o u t l i n e d b y G a t e s a s e s s e n t i a l l y a t h e o r e t i c a l a n d l o n g - r a n g e p o s -1 4 1 . s i b i l i t y h a d a t l a s t become a r e a l i t y . I n o r d e r t o a c h i e v e t h i s s u p e r i o r i t y t h e K e n n e d y A d m i n i s t r a t i o n p r o v i d e d f o r e i g h t h u n d r e d M i n u t e m e n i n 2 8 t h i s b u d g e t . F u r t h e r m o r e , t e s t i m o n y b y D r . J o h n S. F o s t e r , D i r e c t o r o f D e f e n s e R e s e a r c h a n d E n g i n e e r i n g i n 1968, i n d i c a t e d t h a t i n i t i a l w o r k o n a v a s t l y i m p r o v e d I.C.B.M. h a d a l s o b e e n o r i e n t e d t o c o u n t e r f o r c e m i s s i o n s . T h u s , when a S e n a t o r a s k e d h i m i f t h e e x t r e m e l y a c c u r a t e m u l t i p l e i n d e p e n d e n t l y t a r g e t a b l e r e - e n t r y v e h i c l e (M.I.R.V.) h a d b e e n d e s i g n e d s i m p l y a s a r e s p o n s e t o t h e S o v i e t A.B.M. t h r e a t , h e r e p l i e d : N o t e n t i r e l y . The M.I.R.V. c o n c e p t o r i g i n a l l y g e n e r a t e d t o i n c r e a s e o u r t a r g e t i n g c a p a b i l i t y r a t h e r t h a n t o p e n e t r a t e A.B.M. d e f e n s e s . I n 1961-62 p l a n n i n g f o r t a r g e t i n g t h e M i n u t e m a n f o r c e i t was f o u n d t h a t t h e t o t a l number o f a i m p o i n t s e x c e e d e d t h e number o f M i n u t e m a n m i s s i l e s . B y s p l i t t i n g up t h e p a y l o a d o f a s i n g l e m i s s i l e ( d e l e t e d ) e a c h ( d e l e t e d ) c o u l d be programmed ( d e l e t e d ) a l l o w i n g us t o c o v e r t h e s e t a r g e t s w i t h ( d e l e t e d ) f e w e r m i s s i l e s . ( D e l e t e d . ) M.I.R.V. was o r i g i n a l l y b o r n t o i m p l e m e n t t h e p a y l o a d s p l i t - u p ( d e l e t e d ) , I t was f o u n d t h a t t h e p r e v i o u s l y g e n e r a t e d M.I.R.V. c o n c e p t c o u l d ^ e q u a l l y w e l l be u s e d a g a i n s t A.B.M. ( d e l e t e d ) . The s t a r t i n g p o i n t f o r t h e s e d e c i s i o n s was t h e A m e r i c a n s ' r e c o g n i t i o n t h a t t h e y now h a d a m a r g i n o f 142 s t r a t e g i c a d v a n t a g e o v e r t h e i r o p p o n e n t s i n t h e autumn o f 19 6 1 , a n d t h e i r b e l i e f t h a t t h e y c o u l d c o n t i n u e t o e n j o y t h i s a d v a n t a g e i n f u t u r e w i t h o u t h a v i n g t o s u b s t a n t i a l l y i n c r e a s e t h e i r p r e s e n t l e v e l o f e x p e n d i t u r e s . H a v i n g a t l a s t o v e r c o m e t h e i r p r o b l e m s w i t h Samos, t h e y w e r e now s u f f i c i e n t l y c o n f i d e n t a b o u t t h e r e l i a b i l i t y o f t h e i r i n t e l l i g e n c e t o h a v e R o s w e l l G i l p a t r i c , t h e D e p u t y S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e , p r o c l a i m a n o f f i c i a l a n d d e f i n i t i v e 30 end t o t h e " m i s s i l e gap" o n O c t o b e r 2 1 , 1 9 6 1 . I n t h e most c r u c i a l p a s s a g e o f h i s s p e e c h , h e a n n o u n c e d t h a t "we h a v e a s e c o n d s t r i k e c a p a b i l i t y w h i c h i s a t l e a s t a s e x t e n s i v e as w h a t t h e S o v i e t s c a n d e l i v e r b y s t r i k i n g 31 f i r s t . " T h u s , G i l p a t r i c h a d i n e f f e c t a n n o u n c e d a new " m i s s i l e g a p , " t h i s t i m e one f a v o u r i n g h i s c o u n t r y , a t t h e v e r y moment when he h a d l a i d t h e o l d one t o r e s t . A s was t h e c a s e w i t h t h e o l d "gap," t h e new one was b o t h q u a n t i t a t i v e a n d q u a l i t a t i v e . The U n i t e d S t a t e s , w h i c h h a d o n l y s i x I.C.B.M.s i n J a n u a r y , a n d t w e n t y - e i g h t i n S e p t e m b e r , h a d f o r t y - e i g h t A t l a s e s a t t h e e n d o f Novem-32 b e r . The U.S„, S.R., o n t h e o t h e r h a n d , h a d a maximum o f f i f t y I.C.B.M.s b y t h i s l a t t e r d a t e , c o m p a r e d w i t h 33 a b o u t t w e n t y a t t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e y e a r . 143. E v e n more s i g n i f i c a n t t h a n t h e s e b a r e f i g u r e s , h o w e v e r , was t h e q u a l i t a t i v e a s p e c t o f t h e s t r a t e g i c b a l -a n c e . W hereas m o s t o f t h e A t l a s s i t e s w e r e b e i n g h a r d e n e d , a l b e i t t o v a r y i n g d e g r e e s , a n d w h e r e a s t h e i m p r o v e d A t l a s e s w e r e a b o u t t o be r e p l a c e d b y t h e more a d v a n c e d T i t a n a n d M i n u t e m a n , t h e r e w e r e fe w s i g n s o f c o m p a r a b l e a d v a n c e s i n 34 t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . H e r n u m e r i c a l s t r e n g t h , a n d h e n c e t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f h e r I.C.B.M. f o r c e s , was r e d u c e d f o r m o s t p u r p o s e s b y t h e f a c t t h a t some o f h e r I.C.B.M.s 35 w e r e s i t u a t e d o n s i t e s w h i c h h a d a r e f i r e c a p a b i l i t y . As t h e r e w e r e more m i s s i l e s t h a n l a u n c h i n g f a c i l i t i e s , some weapons w o u l d p e r f o r c e h a v e t o be h e l d i n r e s e r v e u n t i l t h e i n i t i a l s a l v o h a d f r e e d s u f f i c i e n t f a c i l i t i e s t o p e r m i t t h e i r f i r i n g . T h i s meant, o f c o u r s e , t h a t t h e f i r s t wave o f a t t a c k i n g m i s s i l e s w o u l d be s u b s t a n t i a l l y s m a l l e r t h a n t h e t o t a l R u s s i a n I.C.B.M. f o r c e , b u t i t a l s o meant t h a t t h e r e w o u l d n e c e s s a r i l y be a p a u s e b e t w e e n t h e f i r s t a n d s e c o n d s a l v o s , a p a u s e o c c a s i o n e d b y t h e t i m e r e q u i r e d t o p r e p a r e t h e r e s e r v e f o r c e f o r l a u n c h i n g . T h i s l a t t e r f a c t o r , c o m b i n e d w i t h S a m o s 1 s a b i l i t y t o p i n p o i n t R u s s i a n s i t e s i n a d v a n c e , w o u l d 144. g r e a t l y f a c i l i t a t e A m e r i c a n a t t e m p t s t o d e s t r o y a t l e a s t some o f t h e o p p o s i n g m i s s i l e s . C l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h i s , o n c e Samos h a d made c o n c e a l m e n t v i r t u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e , t h e m a i n g u a r a n t e e f o r t h e i n v u l n e r a b i l i t y o f R u s s i a n I.C.B.M.s e v a p o r a t e d , f o r t h e y w e r e l o c a t e d i n c l o s e p r o x i m i t y t o one a n o t h e r a n d o n l y a f e w o f them w e r e e v e n s l i g h t l y h a r d e n e d . F i n a l l y , Moscow's I.C.B.M.s w e r e s t i l l h i g h l y i n a c c u r a t e , a c h a r a c t e r i s t i c w h i c h made i t p o s s i b l e f o r t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t o s e c u r e a s e c o n d - s t r i k e c o u n t e r v a l u e c a p a b i l i t y w i t h a r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l number o f weapons a n d w h i c h c o n -s e q u e n t l y f r e e d t h e r e m a i n d e r o f h e r m i s s i l e s f o r c o u n t e r -• • 3 7 f o r c e m i s s i o n s . Y e t more i m p o r t a n t , t h e A m e r i c a n s h a d g r o u n d s f o r b e l i e v i n g t h a t t h i s "gap" c o u l d be m a i n t a i n e d i n t h e y e a r s a h e a d , a n d p e r h a p s e v e n w i d e n e d somewhat, i f t h e c o n -t i n u e d t h e i r e f f o r t s a t t h e c u r r e n t l e v e l o f i n t e n s i t y . I t h a d come, a f t e r a l l , d e s p i t e t h e R u s s i a n l e a d i n m i s s i l e r y , a n d d e s p i t e r e l a t i v e l y l a g a r d l y A m e r i c a n e f f o r t s i n t h i s s p h e r e . A d m i t t e d l y , t h e K r e m l i n now seemed d e t e r m i n e d t o s t e p up i t s r a t e o f m i s s i l e d e p l o y -ments ; o n J u l y 8 K h r u s h c h e v h a d a n n o u n c e d a n i n c r e a s e o f t h r e e b i l l i o n r u b l e s i n t h e R u s s i a n d e f e n s e b u d g e t , a n d 1 4 5 . much o f t h i s w o u l d i n e v i t a b l y be d e v o t e d t o s t r a t e g i c 38 . . f o r c e s . E v e n a f t e r t h i s , h o w e v e r , t h e A m e r i c a n s e s t i m - . a t e d t h a t the S o v i e t U n i o n w o u l d n o t h a v e e v e n one h u n d r e d 3 a n d f i f t y i n f e r i o r I.C.B.M.s u n t i l l a t e 1962 o r m i d - 1 9 6 4 . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h i s , a l t h o u g h i t was a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t t h e S o v i e t s w o u l d f u r t h e r e x p a n d t h e i r f o r c e s i n r e s p o n s e t o G i l p a t r i c ' s s t a r k r e v e l a t i o n s , a t o t a l o f l e s s t h a n s i x h u n d r e d R u s s i a n s t r a t e g i c m i s s i l e s - S.L. B.M.s a s w e l l a s somewhat i m p r o v e d I.C.B.M.s - was e x -40 p e c t e d b y 1 9 6 5 . G i v e n t h e s e p r o j e c t i o n s , a n d g i v e n t h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t t h e more a d v a n c e d M i n u t e m a n I I w o u l d be o p e r a t i o n a l b y t h i s d a t e , i t a p p e a r e d r e a s o n a b l e t o assume t h a t t h e programmed A m e r i c a n f o r c e s c o u l d t h r e a t e n , o r a t l e a s t seem t o t h r e a t e n , a s u b s t a n t i a l number o f S o v i e t s t r a t e g i c w e a p o n s . P a r o d o x i c a l l y , i t was h o p e d t h a t s u c h a t h r e a t w o u l d a c t u a l l y b r i n g a b o u t an u l t i m a t e d e c e l e r a t i o n i n t h e arms r a c e . The R u s s i a n s , i t was t r u e , h a d g i v e n some i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t t h e y w e r e g e n u i n e l y c o n c e r n e d f o r t h e s a f e t y o f t h e i r c o u n t e r v a l u e c a p a b i l i t y , a n d t h a t t h i s c o n c e r n u n d e r l a y t h e i r i n c r e a s e d m i l i t a r y e x p e n d i t u r e 146. a t V i e n n a , K h r u s h c h e v h a d t o l d K e n n e d y t h a t t h e A m e r i c a n s t r a t e g i c e x p a n s i o n h a d c r e a t e d p r e s s u r e s o n h i m t o f o l l o w s u i t , M i k h a i l K h a r m o l o v , p r e s s c h i e f f o r t h e S o v i e t F o r e i g n O f f i c e , h a d r e p e a t e d t h i s w a r n i n g i n a c o n v e r s a -t i o n w i t h S a l i n g e r , a n d t h e S o v i e t p r e m i e r h a d c i t e d t h e t h r e a t p r e s e n t e d b y t h e K e n n e d y i n c r e a s e s i n h i s s p e e c h 41 o f J u l y 8. F u r t h e r m o r e , i t seemed t h a t K h r u s h c h e v was s t i l l d i s m a y e d b y t h e h e a v y demands w h i c h t h e d e f e n s e b u d g e t was m a k i n g o n h i s c o u n t r y ' s t r o u b l e d economy, a f a c t m a n i f e s t i n K h a r m a l o v ' s p o i n t e d r e f e r e n c e t o t h e d e s i r a b i l i t y o f d i v e r t i n g r e s o u r c e s f r o m t h e arms r a c e t o 42 i m p r o v e m e n t o f t h e s t a n d a r d o f l i v i n g . A t t h e same t i m e , t h e r e c o u l d be no c e r t a i n t y t h a t t h e U.S.S.R was g e n u i n e l y w i l l i n g t o h a l t t h i s r a c e . " S u p e r i o r i t y , " a f t e r a l l , r e m a i n e d t h e o f f i c i a l g o a l o f S o v i e t n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y , a n d t h e r e was no g u a r a n t e e t h a t t h e l a t e s t R u s s i a n i n c r e m e n t s w e r e a n y t h i n g more t h a n t h e p r e l u d e t o a b i d f o r a c o u n t e r f o r c e c a p a -43 b i l i t y . T h i s somber v i e w o f enemy i n t e n t i o n s was g i v e n f u r t h e r w e i g h t when, on O c t o b e r 30:,- t h e U. S.S.R* e x p l o d e d a f i f t y m e g a t o n bomb, h a i l i n g t h i s a c h i e v e m e n t i n t e r m s r e m i n i s c e n t o f t h o s e e m p l o y e d a f t e r t h e l a u n c h i n g o f 147. 44 . S p u t n i k . A l t h o u g h t h i s weapon was s e e n more as a p r o p a -g a n d a d e v i c e t h a n a m i l i t a r y o n e , t h e v e r y f a c t t h a t i t h a d b e e n d e v e l o p e d seemed o m i n o u s , f o r i t was e v i d e n c e o f a S o v i e t i n t e r e s t i n w a r h e a d s f a r l a r g e r t h a n t h o s e p o s s e s s e d b y t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , w a r h e a d s w h i c h , i f u n i t e d w i t h a s u f f i c i e n t l y a d v a n c e d m i s s i l e t o d e l i v e r i t , c o u l d p o s e a g r a v e t h r e a t t o e v e n h a r d e n e d I.C.B.M. s i t e s i n 45 t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . To a d d t o t h i s , o n O c t o b e r 24, M a r s h a l l R a d i o n M a l i n o v s k y , t h e S o v i e t D e f e n s e M i n i s t e r , c l a i m e d t h a t h i s c o u n t r y h a d a c t u a l l y s o l v e d t h e p r o b l e m o f m i s s i l e d e f e n s e a n d asser.ifeed t h a t t h e s o c i a l i s t camp w o u l d emerge v i c t o r -46 I O U S f r o m a n u c l e a r w a r . W h i l e A m e r i c a n o f f i c i a l s w e r e e x t r e m e l y s k e p t i c a l a b o u t t h i s c l a i m , i t r e i n f o r c e d t h e i r a p p r e h e n s i o n t h a t t h e enemy was s t i l l d e t e r m i n e d t o s e i z e . 47 u p o n a n y s t r a t e g i c a d v a n t a g e s w h i c h . s e e m e d o p e n t o h i m . I n v i e w o f t h e s e s i g n s ' o f a p e r s i s t e n t a n d d a n g e r -ous a m b i v a l e n c e i n R u s s i a n n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y , c o n t i n u a t i o n o f t h e U n i t e s S t a t e s ' p o l i c y o f s i m p l y r e a c t i n g t o e n s u r e t h e s a f e t y o f h e r c o u n t e r v a l u e c a p a b i l i t y seemed i n a d e q u a t e , I f t h e p r e c e d e n t s o f t h e "bomber gap" a n d t h e " m i s s i l e gap" 148. w e r e a n y g u i d e , i t seemed t h a t a l t h o u g h s u c h a p o l i c y m i g h t d e t e r t h e U.S.S.R. f r o m a c t u a l l y i n i t i a t i n g a t h e r m o n u c l e a r e x c h a n g e , i t w o u l d n o t s t r i k e a t t h e h e a r t o f t h e p r o b l e m , f o r s h e w o u l d s t i l l h o p e t h a t a t e c h n o l o g i c a l b r e a k t h r o u g h o r a s u d d e n s p u r t i n h e r weapons d e p l o y m e n t s w o u l d a t l a s t y i e l d h e r a c o u n t e r f o r c e c a p a b i l i t y . The s u r e s t m e thod o f s o l v i n g t h i s p r o b l e m , t h e A m e r i c a n d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s c o n c l u d e d , was t o c o n f r o n t h e r w i t h a n o v e r w h e l m i n g q u a l i t a t i v e a n d q u a n t i t a t i v e s u p e r i o r i t y a n d t o t h e r e b y c o n v i n c e h e r t h a t s h e c o u l d n e v e r p r e v a i l i n t h e arms r a c e ; o n l y t h e n m i g h t s h e a d m i t t h e f u t i l i t y o f h e r q u e s t f o r s u p e r i o r i t y , a n d o n l y t h e n m i g h t s h e a t l a s t a c c e p t t h e l o g i c o f s t a b i l i t y 48 t h r o u g h s e c u r e c o u n t e r v a l u e c a p a b i l i t i e s o n b o t h s i d e s . The arms r a c e i n i t s e l f , h o w e v e r , was n o t r e g a r d e d as t h e m o s t s e r i o u s t h r e a t t o A m e r i c a n v i t a l i n t e r e s t s a n d t o p e a c e . Moscow's r e p e a t e d e f f o r t s t o e x p a n d i t s p o l i t i c a l i n f l u e n c e u n d e r c o v e r o f i t s n u c l e a r u m b r e l l a , t h a t i s t o s a y i t s c o n t i n u e d r e s o r t t o " S p u t n i k d i p l o m a c y " was t h e 1 c e n t r a l p r o b l e m i n A m e r i c a n e y e s . K h r u s h c h e v , i t was t r u e , h a d made some c o n c i l i a t o r y g e s t u r e s . On S e p t e m b e r 29, s i x w e eks a f t e r w o r k h a d b e g u n on t h e B e r l i n W a l l , he s e n t t h e 149. f i r s t o f a number o f s e c r e t l e t t e r s t o K e n n e d y . I n t h i s , h e e x p r e s s e d a w i l l i n g n e s s t o r e - e x a m i n e t h o s e i s s u e s w h i c h h a d k e p t h i s c o u n t r y i n c o n f l i c t w i t h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s e v e r s i n c e W o r l d War I I , p r o v i d e d ' t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s r e c i p r o c a t e d , a n d he f u r t h e r s t a t e d t h a t n e g o t i a t i o n s o n 49 B e r l i n a n d S o u t h e a s t A s i a c o u l d be r e s u m e d . A s a f o l l o w -up t o t h i s l e t t e r , h e a l s o a n n o u n c e d on O c t o b e r 17 t h a t W e s t e r n w i l l i n g n e s s t o s e e k a m u t u a l l y a g r e e a b l e s o l u t i o n t o t h i s , p r o b l e m made i t p o s s i b l e f o r h i m t o c a n c e l h i s 50 D ecember 31 d e a d l i n e f o r a n a g r e e m e n t on B e r l i n . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e s e g e s t u r e s w e r e o v e r s h a d o w e d b y t h e S o v i e t r e s u m p t i o n o f a t m o s p h e r i c t e s t i n g , f o r i t s i g n a l l e d a new a t t e m p t a t m i l i t a r y - d i p l o m a t i c c o e r c i o n . T h i s f a c t , m a n i f e s t i n t h e P r e m i e r ' s s t a t e m e n t t o two B r i t i s h v i s i t o r s t h a t he h o p e d t o s h o c k t h e W e s t i n t o c o n -c e s s i o n s o n B e r l i n a n d d i s a r m a m e n t r e i n f o r c e d t h e A m e r i c a n 51 p e r c e p t i o n o f t h r e a t . I n d e e d , K e n n e d y c o n c l u d e d , i n S o r e n s e n ' s w o r d s , " t h a t a n a c t u a l n u c l e a r c o n f r o n t a t i o n m i g h t be r e q u i r e d b e f o r e K h r u s h c h e v u n d e r s t o o d t h a t . . . 52 K e n n e d y ' s c o n c i l i a t i o n w o u l d n o t p e r m i t h u m i l i a t i o n . " U n d e r t h e s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s , a damage l i m i t i n g 1 5 0 . c a p a b i l i t y , symbolizing the substantial r i s k s which the United States was prepared to take i n defense of her inter e s t s , seemed necessary for "negotiation from strength," and for protection i n the event of the eruption of a thermo-nuclear c o n f l i c t . This diplomatic climate i n turn kept the problems associated with Western European security i n the forefront of American ca l c u l a t i o n s . As McNamara pointed out, i t appeared that "the,danger to our Western European a l l i e s from a Soviet nuclear attack was far greater at the moment 53 than the danger to thxs country." The main reason for th i s - apart from the fact that the most important Russian-American p o l i t i c a l disputes were rooted i n that area - was the apparent p o s s i b i l i t y that the United States would not bring on her own nuclear destruction for even the most valued a l l y . Such a p o s s i b i l i t y , explored i n blunt, i f elegant, fashion by French writers such as G a l l o i s and Beauffre, was one of the main subjects covered i n Kennedy's meeting 54 with President De Gaulle p r i o r to the Vienna summit. De Gaulle's continuing skepticism about the American 151. g u a r a n t e e , a n d t h e w i d e s p r e a d d o u b t s w h i c h h e m i r r o r e d , w e r e s e r i o u s in., p a r t b e c a u s e t h e y p r o v i d e d t h e m a i n r a t i o n a l e f o r t he. f o r c e de f r a p p e . B y g i v i n g t h e F r e n c h t h e . c a p a b i l i t y t o p r e c i p i t a t e a c a t a l y t i c w a r , t h i s f o r c e t h r e a t e n e d t o t a k e t h e f i n a l d e c i s i o n o n r e s p o n s e s t o a S o v i e t , i n v a s i o n 55 o u t o f t h e h a n d s o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . . B y s t i m u l a t i n g n u c l e a r l o n g i n g s i n German h e a r t s , i t a l s o t h r e a t e n e d t o e n c o u r a g e t h e g r o w t h o f y e t a n o t h e r i n d e p e n d e n t n u c l e a r f o r c e , a p r o s p e c t w h i c h a l a r m e d W a s h i n g t o n a l m o s t as.vmuch 56 . . . . . . . a s i t d i d Moscow. E v e n more s i g n i f i c a n t , a l l i e d d i v i s i o n o v e r A m e r i c a n c r e d i b i l i t y t h r e a t e n e d t o e n c o u r a g e t h e R u s s i a n s In t h e i r own v a r i e t y o f " b r i n k m a n s h i p " i n E u r o p e , a p o l i c y f r a u g h t w i t h p e r i l s o f m i s c a l c u l a t i o n a n d e s c a l a -t i o n o f a p o l i t i c a l c o n f l i c t i n t o a n u n i n t e n d e d w a r . A s a f u r t h e r c o m p l i c a t i o n , t h e K e n n e d y A d m i n i s t r a -t i o n j o i n e d w i t h i t s p r e d e c e s s o r i n r e c o g n i z i n g t h a t t h e c o n t i n u e d N.A.T.O c o n v e n t i o n a l w e a k n e s s made a n o n - n u c l e a r d e f e n s e o f W e s t e r n E u r o p e i m p o s s i b l e . The l o g i c a l c o n -c l u s i o n f l o w i n g f r o m t h i s r e a l i z a t i o n , o f c o u r s e , was t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s must be p r e p a r e d t o s t r i k e f i r s t i f s h e was t o p r o t e c t t h i s a r e a . T h u s , i n a s p e e c h d e l i v e r e d i n e a r l y J u n e , G i l p a t r i c h a d s t a t e d : 1 5 2 . The c u r r e n t d o c t r i n e i s t h a t i f N.A.T.O. f o r c e s w e r e a b o u t t o be o v e r w h e l m e d b y n o n - n u c l e a r a t t a c k s f r o m t h e (Communist) b l o c c o untr;L^s N.A.T.O. w o u l d make u s e o f n u c l e a r a r m s . S i m i l a r l y , i n a M a r c h , 1962 a r t i c l e i n t h e S a t u r d a y E v e n i n g P o s t , K e n n e d y p u b l i c l y r e p e a t e d a n e a r l i e r p r i v a t e a s s u r -a n c e t o D e G a u l l e t o t h i s e f f e c t : B u t K h r u s h c h e v must n o t be c e r t a i n t h a t , w h e r e i t s v i t a l i n t e r e s t s a r e t h r e a t e n e d , t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s • w i l l n o t s t r i k e f i r s t . G i v e n t h i s a w a r e n e s s , a n d g i v e n t h e c e r t a i n t y t h a t a n A m e r i c a n f i r s t s t r i k e w o u l d p r o v o k e S o v i e t r e t a l i a -t i o n , i t seemed o n l y p r u d e n t t o p r o v i d e f o r s u b s t a n t i a l d e s t r u c t i o n o f t h e enemy s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s , a s w e l l a s enemy c i t i e s , i n t h a t f i r s t s t r i k e . N e e d l e s s t o s a y , a c a p a b i l i t y f o r a c c o m p l i s h i n g t h i s m i g h t a l s o enhance, t h e c r e d i b i l i t y o f t h r e a t s s u c h a s t h e one c o n t a i n e d i n K e n n e d y ' s S a t u r d a y E v e n i n g P o s t a r t i c l e b y b r i n g i n g t h e p o t e n t i a l c o s t s t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i n t o a c l o s e r , i f s t i l l i m p e r f e c t , h a r m o n y w i t h t h e s t a k e s i n v o l v e d . I n t h i s manner, t h e d i s i n c e n t i v e s t o a c o n v e n t i o n a l a t t a c k o n t h e N.A.T.O. a l l i e s , a s w e l l a s a n u c l e a r o n e , w o u l d be p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y i n c r e a s e d . 1 5 3 . The o b j e c t i v e s o f c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e as e n v i s a g e d i n t h e f i s c a l y e a r 1963 d e f e n s e b u d g e t , h o w e v e r , w e n t b e -y o n d s i m p l y s t r e n g t h e n i n g t h e e x i s t i n g p o l i c y o f d e t e r r e n c e t h r o u g h t h e t h r e a t o f m a s s i v e r e t a l i a t i o n i n E u r o p e . W h ereas t h e E i s e n h o w e r a d m i n i s t r a t i o n r e c o g n i z e d t h a t N.A.T.O.'s c o n v e n t i o n a l i n f e r i o r i t y w o u l d p l a c e t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i n a n a g o n i z i n g d i l e m m a i f t h e S o v i e t s e v e r i n v a d e d t h i s a r e a , i t t o o k c o m f o r t f r o m i t s c o n v i c t i o n t h a t t h e d a n g e r o f e s c a l a t i o n i n t o a n u c l e a r c o n f l i c t w o u l d d e t e r t hem f r o m s u c h a p r o v o c a t i o n . I t s s u c c e s s o r , h o w e v e r , was n o t s o s a n g u i n e . W h i l e m o s t i n t h e K e n n e d y a d m i n i s -t r a t i o n b e l i e v e d t h a t a S o v i e t i n v a s i o n was h i g h l y u n l i k e l y , t h e y a l s o e m p h a s i z e d t h a t m i s c a l c u l a t i o n , o r e s c a l a t i o n f r o m some l o c a l c o n f l i c t , m i g h t c o n c e i v a b l y l e a d t o s u c h a n i n v a s i o n . A l t h o u g h ,they may w e l l h a v e b e e n p r e p a r e d t o r e s o r t t o n u c l e a r weapons i n e x t r e m i s , t h e y w e r e n a t u r a l l y u n e n t h u s i a s t i c a b o u t s u c h a p r o s p e c t , p a r t i c u -l a r l y when t h e N.A.T.O. a l l i e s ' f a i l u r e t o l i v e up t o t h e i r e a r l i e r c o m m i t m e n t s o n c o n v e n t i o n a l f o r c e l e v e l s w o u l d n e c e s s i t a t e e a r l y u s e o f t h e s e w e a p o n s . I f t h e a l l i e s a t l a s t met t h e s e c o m m i t m e n t s , K e n n e d y a n d h i s l i e u t e n a n t s r e a s o n e d , a n o n - n u c l e a r 154. d e f e n s e o f W e s t e r n E u r o p e m i g h t a c t u a l l y be p o s s i b l e . E v e n i f t h i s w e r e n o t p o s s i b l e N.A.T.O f o r c e s w o u l d a t l e a s t b e a b l e t o h o l d o u t l o n g e r a g a i n s t t h e i n v a d e r s , t h e r e b y a f f o r d i n g Moscow more t i m e f o r s e c o n d t h o u g h t s a b o u t t h e r i s k s o f n u c l e a r c o n f l i c t i n h e r e n t i n s u c h a n i n v a s i o n . F i n a l l y , b y e n s u r i n g t h a t : a l l r e a s o n a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s s h o r t o f s u r r e n d e r w o u l d b e e x h a u s t e d p r i o r t o t h e d e c i s i o n o h w h e t h e r t o u s e n u c l e a r w e a p o n s , a n d b y e n s u r i n g a r e l a t i v e l y p r o l o n g e d n o n - n u c l e a r c o n f l i c t i n v o l v i n g e x t e n s i v e c a s u a l t i e s , a s t r o n g c o n v e n t i o n a l c a p a b i l i t y w o u l d i n c r e a s e t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a n u l t i m a t e A m e r i c a n n u c l e a r r e s p o n s e . I n t h e l a s t a n a l y s i s , s u c h a c a p a b i l i t y w o u l d make t h e c h o i c e b e t w e e n r e s i s t a n c e a n d a b j e c t s u r r e n d e r , b e t w e e n f u l l s u p p o r t f o r a l l i e s s u f f e r -i n g h e a v i l y i n d e f e n s e o f N.A.T.O.'s v i t a l i n t e r e s t s a n d d e s e r t i o n o f t h o s e a l l i e s , s t a r k e r . B y s o d o i n g , i t w o u l d i n c r e a s e t h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t W a s h i n g t o n w o u l d f u l l y 59 h o n o u r i t s c o m m i t m e n t s . F r o m t h e A m e r i c a n p o i n t o f v i e w , t h e n , b o l s t e r -i n g N.A.T.O.'s c o n v e n t i o n a l s t r e n g t h w o u l d e n a b l e t h e W e s t t o h a v e i t s s t r a t e g i c c a k e a n d e a t i t t o o ; i t w o u l d s i m u l t a n e o u s l y d e c r e a s e t h e p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t t h e U n i t e d 155. S t a t e s w o u l d h a v e t o make good i t s n u c l e a r g u a r a n t e e t o W e s t e r n E u r o p e a nd i n c r e a s e t h e c r e d i b i l i t y o f t h a t g u a r a n t e e . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e N.A.T.O. a l l i e s d i d ! n o t s h a r e t h i s e n t h u s i a s m . T h u s , i n h i s c o n v e r s a t i o n w i t h K e n n e d y s h o r t l y a f t e r t h e P r e s i d e n t h a d h e l d o u t t h e p r o s -p e c t o f a m u l t i l a t e r a l s e a b o r n e n u c l e a r f o r c e " o n c e N.A. T.O.'s n o n - n u c l e a r g o a l s h a v e b e e n a c h i e v e d , " De G a u l l e m a i n t a i n e d t h a t t h i s new e m p h a s i s was m e r e l y f u r t h e r e v i d e n c e o f A m e r i c a ' s u n w i l l i n g n e s s t o come t o N.A.T.O.'s 60 a i d w i t h n u c l e a r w e a p o n s . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e Germans" h a d e c h o e d t h e s e d o u b t s , a n d e v e n H a r o l d W a t k i n s o n , t h e B r i t i s h D e f e n s e M i n i s t e r , h a d w a r n e d t h a t : S u c h a p o l i c y ( b u i l d i n g up N.A.T.O c o n v e n t i o n a l f o r c e s ) m i g h t m e r e l y i n d i c a t e t h a t we s h o u l d n o t h a v e t h e c o u r a g e e v e r ^ i x ) u s e t h e n u c l e a r weapon i n a n y c i r c u m s t a n c e s . F o u r m o n t h s , a f t e r W a t k i n s o n made t h i s s t a t e m e n t , i n O c t o b e r , 19 6 1 , a n y r e m a i n i n g d o u b t s a b o u t t h e d e e p - r o o t e d E u r o p e a n o p p o s i t i o n t o t h i s p o l i c y w e r e d i s s i p a t e d when G e n e r a l L a u r i s N o r s t a d , t h e N.A.T.O. Supreme Commander, i n f o r m e d h i s s u p e r i o r s i n W a s h i n g t o n t h a t , i n S c h l e s i n g e r ' s w o r d s , " e v e r y d ocument we s u b m i t t e d s t r e s s i n g c o n v e n t i o n a l w a r -156. 62 f a r e c a s t d o u b t on o u r n u c l e a r r e s o l v e . " F a c e d w i t h t h i s s i t u a t i o n , t h e K e n n e d y a d m i n i s -t r a t i o n h a d t o c h o o s e b e t w e e n r e v e r s i o n t o i t s p r e d e c e s s o r ' s p o l i c y a n d f i n d i n g a means o f m e e t i n g a l l i e d o b j e c t i o n s . G i v e n i t s v i g o r o u s a c t i v i s m , a n d g i v e n i t s a s s e s s m e n t o f t h e p r e s e n t S o v i e t t h r e a t , i t n a t u r a l l y c h o s e t h e l a t t e r c o u r s e . A s v e r b a l r e a s s u r a n c e s a l o n e h a d p r o v e d f u t i l e , p h y s i c a l r e a s s u r a n c e i n t h e f o r m o f " n u c l e a r s u p e r i o r i t y " s u f f i c i e n t t o t h r e a t e n a t l e a s t a p a r t o f t h e S o v i e t s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s a p p e a r e d t o p r o v i d e s u c h a means. S u c h a c a p a b i l i t y , a f t e r a l l , c o u l d w e l l u n i t e w i t h N.A.T.O.'s e x p a n d e d c o n v e n t i o n a l s t r e n g t h t o l i m i t damage t o W e s t e r n E u r o p e i f t h e R u s s i a n s a t t a c k e d ; n o t o n l y m i g h t i t d e t e r t h e m f r o m r e s o r t i n g t o t a c t i c a l n u c l e a r , w e a p o n s o n c e t h e y r e a l i z e d t h a t t h e y c o u l d n o t p r e v a i l a t t h e n o n -n u c l e a r l e v e l , b u t i t m i g h t a l s o c a u s e t h e m t o c e a s e h o s -t i l i t i e s a l t o g e t h e r , f o r f e a r o f e s c a l a t i o n t o a l e v e l o f v i o l e n c e a t w h i c h t h e y w o u l d be a t a d i s t i n c t d i s a d v a n t a g e . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h i s , d o m e s t i c i n f l u e n c e s a l s o p l a y e d a s i g n i f i c a n t p a r t i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e . A s w a s , n o t e d e a r l i e r , K e n n e d y a n d h i s a d v i s e r s 157. s h a r e d t h e p r e d i s p o s i t i o n s o f t h e i r own p e o p l e t o a g r e a t e x t e n t . The r e a s o n i n g w h i c h l e d them t o s e e k a m a r k e d s t r a t e g i c a d v a n t a g e o v e r t h e i r o p p o n e n t s , i t was t r u e , was b a a e d t o a g r e a t e x t e n t o n t h e r e a l i t i e s o f c o n t e m p o r a r y i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s a n d s t r a t e g i c c u r r e n t s . A t t h e same t i m e , m o s t o f them i n s t i n c t i v e l y a c c e p t e d t h e n e c e s s i t y f o r a m e a s u r e o f " n u c l e a r s u p e r i o r i t y " a s a f i r s t p r i n c i p l e ; r e a s o n e d a n a l y s i s f r e q u e n t l y t e n d e d t o p r o c e e d f r o m t h i s s t a r t i n g p o i n t , d e t e r m i n i n g how much " s u p e r i r o i t y " c o u l d r e a s o n a b l y be p u r s u e d a n d p o i n t i n g t o t h e m o s t s u i t a b l e p u r p o s e s f o r w h i c h i t c o u l d be u s e d . S i m i l a r l y , t h e i r t e n d e n c y t o d i s m i s s o u t o f h a n d many S o v i e t , a n d e v e n a l l i e d , o b j e c t i o n s t o t h e i r s t r a t e g i c p r e s c r i p t i o n s as i l l - i n f o r m e d o r s i m p l y u n s o p h i s t i c a t e d r e f l e c t e d t h e A m e r i c a n s ' t r a d i t i o n a l t e n d e n c y t o assume t h a t t h e i r own 63 s u p e r i o r w i s d o m a n d g o o d i n t e n t i o n s w e r e s e l f - e v i d e n t . The e x t e n t o f t h e s e d o m e s t i c i n f l u e n c e s , how-e v e r , d i d n o t e n d h e r e . P e r h a p s m o s t i m p o r t a n t i n t h i s r e g a r d , a v a r i e t y o f d i s p u t e s b e t w e e n t h e E x e c u t i v e a n d t h e armed f o r c e s t h r e a t e n e d t o r e - a r o u s e t h a t " p s y c h o l o g i c a l v u l n e r a b i l i t y o f t h e A m e r i c a n p e o p l e " t o w h i c h E i s e n h o w e r 158. had referred. Kennedy and, to an even greater extent, McNamara continued to oppose the A i r Force attempts to gain accept-ance for f u l l development of the B-70 as an operational weapons system. The reasons which McNamara c i t e d for t h i s opposition bore a strong resemblance to those employed i n the previous year; the B-70 was vulnerable to enemy a i r defenses, i t was not suited for carrying A.S.M.s, and i t 64 was highly vulnerable on the ground. Furthermore, xn his f i s c a l year 1963 posture statement, as i n his f i s c a l year 1962 one, the Secretary of Defense raised the broader question of the r e l a t i v e importance of manned bombers of any kind as more and more I.C.B.M.s entered the American arsenal. By th i s time, though, he was c l e a r l y concerned with questions beyond the purely technological character-istics., of the two weapons systems. In his message of March 28, Kennedy had stressed that American nuclear weapons must be under unquestionable 65 c i v i l i a n c o n t r o l . McNamara, apparently with Kennedy's approval, had decided that bombers were less amenable to such control than m i s s i l e s . The.^evidence pointing to th i s 159. conclusion, admittedly, i s somewhat fragmentary, but t h i s i n i t s e l f i s hardly surprising; no Secretary of Defense would w i l l i n g l y alarm opponents, a l l i e s , and h i s own people by emphasizing the p o s s i b i l i t y that h i s government might not be i n f u l l control of a l l American strategic forces. Nevertheless, there are indications that McNamara thought that there was a chance, a l b e i t a marginal one, that t h i s might i n fact be the case. One i n d i r e c t i n d i c a t i o n of th i s was h i s reaction to a question by Chairman Rivers of the House Armed Services Committee about the action he would take i f the Soviet Union deployed an e f f e c t i v e A.B.M. system. In his reply, the Secretary of Defense rejected the p o s s i b i l i t y of circumventing such a system by concentrating on a weapon which i t was not designed to intercept, namely bombers. He contended instead that he would o f f s e t t h i s hypothetical m i s s i l e defense by building more missiles, j u s t i f y i n g t h i s on the grounds that they would s t i l l have a " f a r higher 66 p r o b a b i l i t y of successful penetration than bombers." Reasonable as th i s argument may have seemed at 160. f i r s t g l a n c e , i t h a r d l y r e f l e c t e d McNamara's a c t u a l a s s e s s m e n t o f bomber p e n e t r a b i l i t y . I n 1968 h e s t a t e d : One o f t h e f i r s t a c t i o n s I t o o k when I came t o t h e ( D e f e n s e ) D e p a r t m e n t 7 y e a r s ago was t o e x a m i n e t h e p e n e t r a t i o n c a p a b i l i t y o f o u r b o m b e r s . T h e r e was some a r g u m e n t a b o u t i t a t t h e t i m e , b u t t h e a r g u m e n t r a n g e d b e t w e e n a n a b i l i t y f o r 90 p e r c e n t o f o u r bombers t o p e n e t r a t e v e r s u s someone e l s e ' s b e l i e f t h a t i t w o u l d be o n l y 80 t o 85 p e r c e n t . So t h e r e was no d i s a g r e e m e n t i n t h e D e p a r t m e n t w h a t s o e v e r , t h e n o r s i n c e , a b o u t t h e a b i l i t y o f o u r bombers o r m i s s i l e s t o p e n e t r a t e S o v i e t D e f e n s e s o n w h i c h t h e y w e r e s p e n d i n g t w i c e as much as we w e r e t o d e f e n d a g a i n s t t h e m . . . . Y e t we f e l t t h e y w e r e b u y i n g e s s e n t i a l l y n o t h i n g f o r t h o s e v a s t e x p e n d i t u r e s i n t h e way o f a d d e d p r o t e c t i o n f o r t h e i r c o u n t r y I n v i e w o f t h i s , i t seems r e a s o n a b l e t o c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e was b e i n g f a r f r o m c a n d i d i n h i s s t r e s s o n t h e s e s u p p o s e d t e c h n o l o g i c a l t e c h n i c a l d r a w b a c k s o f manned a i r c r a f t , a n d t h i s i n t u r n s u g g e s t s t h a t h i s a r g u m e n t h i d a n u l t e r i o r m o t i v e . A s was s e e n e a r l i e r , one o f t h e A i r F o r c e a r g u -ments i n f a v o u r o f t h e bomber was t h a t , u n l i k e t h e m i s s i l e , i t b r e d a d e t e r m i n e d a n d o f f e n s i v e s p i r i t , r a t h e r t h a n 68 " M a g i n o t m i n d e d n e s s , " among t h e A m e r i c a n p e o p l e . The m a i n i m p l i c a t i o n o f t h i s a r g u m e n t , a t l e a s t i n McNamara's e y e s , was t h a t bombers w e r e l e s s v u l n e r a b l e t o l a s t -161. m i n u t e c i v i l i a n h e s i t a t i o n s o n t h e b r i n k o f w a r t h a n w e r e m i s s i l e s , f o r t h e y h a d t o be l a u n c h e d o n w a r n i n g . A l a r m e d b y t h i s , a n d r e c o g n i z i n g t h a t t h e f a i l - s a f e s y s t e m , l i k e a l l human c o n s t r u c t i o n s , m i g h t b r e a k down i n a c r i s i s , h e b l u n t l y t o l d some o f h i s c o n g r e s s i o n a l c r i t i c s : I do n o t t h i n k we c a n p u t i t i n t h e h a n d s o f a bomber p i l o t t o d e c i d e w h i c h t a r g e t t o l a u n c h h i s m i s s i l e a g a i n s t o r when t o l a u n c h . ^ 9 T h i s f e a r , r a t h e r t h a n some o b s e s s i v e b e l i e f i n t h e s t r i c t l y t e c h n i c a l s u p e r i o r i t y o f m i s s i l e s o r a n e q u a l l y o b s e s s i v e d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o i m p o s e h i s w i l l o n t h e m i l i t a r y r e g a r d -l e s s o f t h e m e r i t s o f i t s a r g u m e n t s , a c c o u n t s i n l a r g e . . 70 m e a s u r e f o r McNamara's e s s e n t i a l h o s t i l i t y t o b o m b e r s . W h e t h e r o r n o t t h i s h o s t i l i t y was w e l l f o u n d e d , i t u n i t e d w i t h t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ' s r e f u s a l s t o meet A i r F o r c e demands f o r more I.C.B.M.s a n d Army demands f o r d e p l o y m e n t o f N i k e - Z e u s t o c r e a t e a g r e a t d e a l o f r e s e n t -ment w i t h i n t h e armed f o r c e s . B y t h e m s e l v e s , o f c o u r s e , t h e m i l i t a r y w e r e p o w e r l e s s ; o f f i c e r s s u c h a s A d m i r a l A n d e r s o n a n d G e n e r a l L e May, who d i d n o t j o i n i n t h e K e n n e d y - McNamara s t r a t e g i c c o n s e n s u s , w e r e e a s e d o u t o f 72 o f f i c e w i t h o u t undue d i f f i c u l t y . T h e i r a l l i a n c e s w i t h 162 v a r i o u s members o f C o n g r e s s , . h o w e v e r , s t i l l g a v e t h e m some p o l i t i c a l l e v e r a g e . U n d e r p o i n t e d q u e s t i o n i n g b y w e l l d i s p o s e d l e g i s l a t o r s , m i l i t a r y men w e r e a b l e t o a i r p u b l i c l y t h e i r d i f f e r e n c e s w i t h t h e E x e c u t i v e , a n d t o t h e r e b y make a b r o a d a p p e a l f o r p o p u l a r s u p p o r t . M o r e o v e r , t h e y c o u l d a l s o s e c u r e c o n g r e s s i o n a l a i d i n t h e f o r m o f r e p e a t e d s u p p l e m e n t a l a p p r o p r i a t i o n s f o r t h o s e f o r c e s w h i c h t h e 73 W h i t e House h a d n o t a p p r o v e d . The A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , o f c o u r s e , c o u l d , a n d d i d , f o l l o w i t s p r e d e c e s s o r ' s e x a m p l e b y r e f u s i n g t o s p e n d t h e e x t r a f u n d s p r o v i d e d b y C o n g r e s s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e p u b l i c r e v e l a t i o n s o f d i s a g r e e m e n t s b e t w e e n i t a n d i t s m i l i t a r y a d v i s e r s , w i t h t h e a c c o m p a n y i n g s u g g e s t i o n s t h a t A m e r i c a n s e c u r i t y was s t i l l n o t b e i n g a d e q u a t e l y p r o v i d e d f o r , p r e s -e n t e d a f a r more s e r i o u s p r o b l e m . L i k e t h e much p u b l i c i z e d E u r o p e a n d o u b t s a b o u t t h e A m e r i c a n d e t e r r e n t , t h e s e r e v e l a -t i o n s m i g h t c a s t d o u b t o n t h e c r e d i b i l i t y o f t h i s d e t e r r e n t , a n d m i g h t t h e r e b y e n c o u r a g e t h e K r e m l i n i n i t s p e r i l o u s p r o b i n g o f W e s t e r n d e f e n s e s . Y e t more s e r i o u s , a s was t h e : c a s e w i t h t h e e a r l i e r " m i s s i l e g a p , " s u c h r e v e l a t i o n s m i g h t c r e a t e w i d e s p r e a d p u b l i c a p p r e h e n s i o n a b o u t t h e s t a t e o f 1 6 3 . A m e r i c a ' s d e f e n s e s . W h i l e t h e i r f e a r s o f a m i s s i l e gap h a d m a t e r i a l l y s u b s i d e d b y t h e f i r s t m onths o f 1 9 6 1 , t h e A m e r i c a n s w e r e s t i l l h i g h l y s e n s i t i v e t o a n y s u g g e s t i o n t h a t t h e U.S.S.R. was o u t d i s t a n c i n g t h e i r c o u n t r y , a n a t t i t -ude e v i d e n t i n t h e i r demands f o r r e s u m p t i o n o f a t m o s p h e r i c 74 t e s t i n g . I t was a l w a y s p o s s i b l e , t h e n t h a t t h e g l o o m y p r o n o u n c e m e n t s o f t h e m i l i t a r y , a n d p e r h a p s some R u s s i a n s t r a t e g i c a d v a n c e w h i c h seemed t o l e n d w e i g h t t o t h e s e p r o n o u n c e m e n t s , w o u l d r e - a r o u s e f e a r s t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s was i m p e r i l l e d b y some new s t r a t e g i c "gap." T h i s p o s s i b i l i t y , r a t h e r t h e s u p p o s e d l y i r r e s i s t -a b l e p r e s s u r e s o f t h e " m i l i t a r y - i n d u s t r i a l c o m p l e x , " was t h e d o m i n a n t d o m e s t i c i n f l u e n c e i n t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f 75 c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e . To McNamara a n d K e n n e d y , b e l i e v i n g t h a t t h e y l a c k e d t h e p o l i t i c a l c a p i t a l t o c o m p l e t e l y o p p o s e b o t h A i r F o r c e I.C.B.M. r e q u e s t s a n d t h e B-70 p r o g r a m , a n d f e a r i n g r e s i g n a t i o n s i n t h e J . C . S . i f t h e y seemed t o o u n r e s p o n s i v e t o i t s r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s , t h i s s t r a t e g y seemed a n i d e a l m e t h o d o f l i m i t i n g t h e r e p u r -^ , . 76 c u s s i o n s . o f t h e c u r r e n t s t r a t e g i c c o n t r o v e r s i e s . C h a r g e s o f i n s u f f i c i e n t a t t e n t i o n t o n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y 164. would be harder to sustain, a f t e r a l l , i f the Administration could point to an I.C.B.M. force so "superior" that i t could threaten Russian strategic forces as well as Russian c i t i e s . By the same token, such a "superiority" would promote long-term s t a b i l i t y by r e - i n s t i l l i n g a degree of confidence, i f not complacence, i n the American people. Such a confidence would cushion the blow i n the u n l i k e l y event of another Soviet achievement on the order of Sputnik and would enable them to adopt that combination of stead-fastness and r e s t r a i n t which was v i t a l i n the thermonuclear 77 age. 1 6 5 . COERCIVE DETERRENCE AT I T S ZENITH: THE ADOPTION  OF THE "HOSTAGE CITY" STRATEGY, 1962 C l o s e l y l i n k e d t o i t s d e c i s i o n s o n f o r c e l e v e l s , t h e K e n n e d y a d m i n i s t r a t i o n h a d a l s o r e f i n e d i t s p r e d e c e s -s o r ' s d e f i n i t i o n o f c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e . F o r t h e E i s e n h o w e r 1 a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , t h i s s t r a t e g y h a d i n v o l v e d m a s s i v e a nd s i m u l -t a n e o u s a t t a c k s o n b o t h S o v i e t c i t i e s a n d S o v i e t s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s i n t h e e v e n t o f a t h e r m o n u c l e a r w a r . U n d e r K e n n e d y , h o w e v e r , t h i s e m p h a s i s o n a s i n g l e , c o n v u l s i v e , l a u n c h i n g g a v e way t o t h e " h o s t a g e c i t y " c o n c e p t . T h i s c o n c e p t r e p r e s e n t e d a t w o f o l d d e p a r t u r e f r o m t h e p r e v i o u s d o c t r i n e . F i r s t , a n d mo s t i m p o r t a n t , i t p r o -v i d e d f o r f l e x i b i l i t y i n t a r g e t i n g . T h u s , A m e r i c a n s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s w e r e t o be l a u n c h e d s o l e l y a g a i n s t t h e i r R u s s i a n c o u n t e r p a r t s i n t h e o p e n i n g s t a g e s o f a t h e r m o n u c l e a r e x c h a n g e , w h i l e t h e f o r c e s t h r e a t e n i n g enemy c i t i e s w e r e t o be h e l d i n r e s e r v e as a d e t e r r e n t t o a t t a c k s o n A m e r i c a n c i t i e s . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h i s , i t a l s o e n v i s a g e d t h e p o s s i -b i l i t y o f r e s t r a i n t , n o t . o n l y i n t a r g e t i n g , b u t i n r a t e s o f f i r e as w e l l . B y d i s c h a r g i n g r e l a t i v e l y f e w m i s s i l e s i n t h e o p e n i n g s a l v o s , t h e d o c t r i n e w e n t , t h e U n i t e d 1 6 6 . S t a t e s m i g h t be a b l e t o c o n v i n c e t h e U.S.S.R. t o s i m i l a r l y l i m i t h e r own r e s p o n s e . T h i s i n t u r n m i g h t l e s s e n c o l l a -t e r a l damage t o u r b a n a r e a s , d e c r e a s e t h e c h a n c e s o f e s c a l a t i o n i n t o a c o u n t e r v a l u e e x c h a n g e , a n d f a c i l i t a t e b a r g a i n i n g o n a n e g o t i a t e d end t o h o s t i l i t i e s . P u b l i c l y d e f i n e d i n a s e r i e s o f s t a t e m e n t s c u l -m i n a t i n g i n McNamara's J u n e , 1962 s p e e c h a t Ann A r b o r , t h i s r e f i n e m e n t o f c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e was s i g n i f i c a n t i n two s e n s e s . On t h e one h a n d , i t was a h i g h l y s o p h i s t i c a t e d a t t e m p t t o d e a l w i t h t h e p r o b l e m o f a c t u a l l y f i g h t i n g a n u c l e a r w a r . D r a w i n g u p on s e g m e n t s o f c o u n t e r f o r c e d o c t r i n e a n d u p o n t h e w o r k o f c i v i l i a n t h e o r i s t s , t h e men o f t h e s t r a t e g i c New F r o n t i e r saw i n t h e " h o s t a g e c i t y " d o c t r i n e some h o p e f o r m i n i m i z i n g damage t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s a n d f o r e n s u r i n g a n end t o the. c o n f l i c t o n t e r m s f a v o u r a b l e t o h e r s e l f . I n t h e f i n a l a n a l y s i s , h o w e v e r , t h e i r f a i t h i n t h i s d o c t r i n e as a n o p e r a t i o n a l g u i d e i n a c t u a l h o s t i l i t i e s was more d e c l a r a t o r y t h a n r e a l . On t h e v e r y e v e o f i t s f o r m u l a t i o n , k e y a d v i s e r s s u c h a s G i l -p a t r i c a n d McNamara w e r e s t i l l q u e s t i o n i n g i t s b a s i c p r e m i s e s . F u r t h e r m o r e , b y e a r l y 1962, t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ' s commitment 167. t o c i v i l d e f e n s e , a v i t a l f a c t o r i n t h i s s t r a t e g y , h a d m a r k e d l y a b a t e d . M o s t t e l l i n g o f a l l , A m e r i c a n p o l i c y i n t h e C uban m i s s i l e c r i s i s was b a s e d o n t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t e s c a l a t i o n w o u l d be e x t r e m e l y l i k e l y , a n d p r o b a b l y i n e v i t a b l e , i n a t h e r m o n u c l e a r e x c h a n g e . C o n s e q u e n t l y , i t seems r e a s o n a b l e t o c o n c l u d e t h a t t h i s s t r a t e g y was c o n s i d e r e d t o be a t m o s t a h i g h l y i m p r o b a b l e o p t i o n i n t h e e v e n t o f s u c h a n e x c h a n g e . The K e n n e d y a d m i n i s t r a t -i o n ' s a s s e s s m e n t o f i t s v a l u e as a n o p e r a t i o n a l g u i d e , t h e n , h a r d l y a c c o u n t s f o r t h e p r o m i n e n c e w h i c h i t u l t i m -a t e l y a t t a i n e d . O f f a r g r e a t e r i m p o r t a n c e , t h e " h o s t a g e c i t y " s t r a t e g y was a l s o v i e w e d a s a p o t e n t i a l l y c r e d i b l e b l u f f w h i c h m i g h t r e s o l v e some o f t h e m o s t i n t r a c t a b l e p o l i t i c a l a n d d i p l o m a t i c p r o b l e m s c o n f r o n t i n g t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n . F i r s t a n d f o r e m o s t , R u s s i a n " S p u t n i k d i p l o m a c y " was c o n -t i n u i n g u n a b a t e d . O f e q u a l c o n c e r n , t h e N.A.T.O. a l l i e s w e r e s t i l l r e l u c t a n t t o meet t h e i r o b l i g a t i o n s o n c o n v e n -t i o n a l f o r c e s , a n d t h e f o r c e de f r a p p e s t i l l t h r e a t e n e d t o make a s h a m b l e s o f a n y A m e r i c a n a t t e m p t t o a v o i d e s c a l a t i o n o f a c o n f l i c t i n W e s t e r n E u r o p e . F i n a l l y , 168. C o n g r e s s was l o c k e d i n a m o u n t i n g s t r u g g l e w i t h t h e E x e c u t -i v e o v e r t h e B-70, a n d was i n c r e a s i n g l y v o c i f e r o u s i n i t s c o m p l a i n t s t h a t t h e A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ' s p o l i c y i n t h i s m a t t e r c o u l d i m p e r i l n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y . B e s e t b y t h e s e p r o b l e m s , a n d r a p i d l y e x h a u s t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s o l u t i o n s , K e n n e d y a n d h i s a d v i s e r s a t l a s t c o n c l u d e d t h a t t h e " h o s t a g e c i t y " s t r a t e g y m i g h t o f f e r a t l e a s t a p a r t i a l m e t h o d o f r e s o l v -i i n g them. I . . THE GROWTH OF THE "HOSTAGE C I T Y " STRATEGY T h i s c o n c e p t s p r a n g f r o m two m a i n s o u r c e s . W i l l a i m W. Kaufmann, a n e m i n e n t w r i t e r o n n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y a n d a n e x - s p e e c h w r i t e r f o r McNamara, h a s e m p h a s i z e d t h e i m p o r t -a n c e o f A i r F o r c e a r g u m e n t s : . . . t h e p r o p o n e n t s o f t h e s t r a t e g y o f f l e x i b l e r e s p o n s e , l e d b y G e n e r a l Thomas D. W h i t e , A i r F o r c e C h i e f o f S t a f f , recommended a p o s t u r e w h i c h w o u l d be s o d e s i g n e d a n d c o n t r o l l e d t h a t i t c o u l d a t t a c k enemy bomber a n d m i s s i l e s i t e s , r e t a l i a t e w i t h r e s e r v e f o r c e s a g a i n s t enemy c i t i e s , i f t h a t s h o u l d p r o v e n e c e s s a r y , a n d a l s o e x e r t p r e s s u r e o n t h e enemy t o e n d t h e w a r o n t e r m s a c c e p t a b l e t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . The r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s s p e c i f i c -a l l y s t a t e d t h a t t h e p o s t u r e s h o u l d be d e s i g n e d , n o t f o r t h e c a s e o f a f i r s t s t r i k e a g a i n s t t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , b u t f o r t h e r e t a l i a t o r y r o l e , e s p e c -i a l l y s i n c e i m p o r t a n t m i l i t a r y t a r g e t s w o u l d r e m a i n f o r a t t a c k i n t h e s e c o n d s t r i k e . " 1 " 169. T h i s a c c o u n t , h o w e v e r , i s m i s l e a d i n g ; w h e r e a s Kaufmann g a v e t h e i m p r e s s i o n t h a t s o m e t h i n g resembling t h e " h o s t a g e c i t y " s t r a t e g y was a t t h e h e a r t o f W h i t e ' s r e c o m -d a t i o n s , i t w o u l d seem t h a t q u i t e t h e o p p o s i t e was t r u e . A d m i t t e d l y , e l e m e n t s o f t h i s s t r a t e g y h a d p l a y e d a p a r t i n c o u n t e r f o r c e d o c t r i n e . R e c o g n i z i n g t h a t e v e n t h e m o s t m a s s i v e A m e r i c a n bomber a t t a c k s p r o b a b l y c o u l d n o t d e s t r o y a l l o f t h e o p p o s i n g s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s , some o f t h e f i r s t members o f t h e c o u n t e r f o r c e s c h o o l h a d p r e s e n t e d t h e " h o s t a g e c i t y " s t r a t e g y a s i n e f f e c t a s e c o n d l i n e o f 2 . . . . d e f e n s e . F a c e d w i t h t h e p r o s p e c t o f o b l i t e r a t i o n i f i t d e s t r o y e d A m e r i c a n c i t i e s , t h e y a r g u e d , t h e K r e m l i n w o u l d be u n d e r t h e h e a v i e s t p o s s i b l e p r e s s u r e t o d i r e c t i t s s u r v i v i n g f o r c e s a g a i n s t m i l i t a r y t a r g e t s i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . G i v e n A m e r i c a n n u c l e a r s u p e r i o r i t y , t h i s meant t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s w o u l d emerge f r o m a n u c l e a r w a r r e l a t i v e l y u n s c a t h e d a n d c o m p l e t e l y v i c t o r i o u s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e A i r F o r c e was a l w a y s u n c o m f o r t -a b l e w i t h t h i s a r g u m e n t . Too much d e p e n d e d u p o n t h e r a t i o n a l i t y a n d r e s t r a i n t o f a n enemy who seemed a l l t o o f r e q u e n t l y i r r a t i o n a l a n d u n r e s t r a i n e d . M o r e o v e r , b a s i c 1 7 0 . i n s t i n c t r e b e l l e d a t t h e i d e a t h a t a n u c l e a r w a r c o u l d a c t u a l l y be l i m i t e d t h r o u g h human v o l i t i o n . I t was n o t s u r p r i s i n g , t h e n , t h a t t h i s p r i m i t i v e v e r s i o n o f t h e " h o s t a g e c i t y " s t r a t e g y e n j o y e d e v e n l e s s p r o m i n e n c e i n c o u n t e r f o r c e d o c t r i n e o n c e t h e I.C.B.M. h a d i m p r o v e d c h a n c e s f o r a c o m p l e t e l y s u c c e s s f u l s u r p r i s e a t t a c k o n enemy f o r c e s . The c o u n t e r f o r c e s c h o o l now a r g u e d t h a t c o u n t e r v a l u e a t t a c k s s h o u l d be a v o i d e d s i m p l y b e c a u s e t h e y d i v e r t e d A m e r i c a n s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s f r o m t h e i r p r i m -a r y o b j e c t i v e , n a m e l y d e s t r u c t i o n o f R u s s i a ' s c a p a c i t y 3 f o r d e v a s t a t i n g t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . F u r t h e r m o r e , e v e n t h i s k i n d o f l i m i t a t i o n s seemed i m p r o b a b l e t o many i n t h i s s c h o o l . T h u s , i n t h e s p r i n g o f 1 9 6 1 , G e n e r a l W h i t e c o n c l u d e d a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e o p t i o n s i n a g e n e r a l n u c l e a r w a r b y s t a t i n g : T h i s t i m e e l e m e n t i s g o i n g t o be s b ^ s h o r t t h a t we p r o b a b l y w i l l e n d up w i t h a m i x o f a l l t y p e s o f t a r g e t s , d o i n g t h e m o s t damage we c a n a g a i n s t e a c h . I n v i e w o f a l l t h i s , a n d i n v i e w o f h i s s u b s e -q u e n t d e n u n c i a t i o n o f t h e s t r a t e g y w h i c h McNamara o u t -l i n e d a t A n n A r b o r , i t seems p r o b a b l e t h a t W h i t e ' s m a i n r e c o m m e n d a t i o n was a s t r a t e g y d e s i g n e d t o t o t a l l y d i s a r m 171. 5 t h e U.S.S.R. i n a m a s s i v e f i r s t s t r i k e . To t h e e x t e n t t h a t h e e s p o u s e d t h e " h o s t a g e c i t y " c o n c e p t a t a l l , h e p r o b a b l y p r e s e n t e d i t a s a n i m p r o b a b l e a n d u n r e l i a b l e s u p p l e m e n t t o t h i s b a s i c c o u n t e r f o r c e s t r a t e g y . The s e c o n d , a n d more i n f l u e n t i a l , s o u r c e o f s t r a t e g i c i n s p i r a t i o n was t h e c o m m u n i t y o f c i v i l i a n d e f e n s e a n a l y s t s w h i c h h a d emerged a f t e r W o r l d War I I . A l t h o u g h t h i s was n o t t h e m a j o r theme i n m o s t o f t h e i r w r i t i n g s , a n d a l t h o u g h t h e y v a r i e d i n t h e r e l a t i v e o p t i m i s m o f t h e i r c o n c l u s i o n s , p r o m i n e n t w r i t e r s s u c h a s G l e n n S n y d e r , M o r t o n K a p l a n , K l a u s K n o r r , a n d i n d e e d Herman K a h n , h a d e x a m i n e d t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t s t r a t e g i c 6 n u c l e a r w a r m i g h t b e l i m i t e d . T h e i r b a s i c p r e m i s e - one w h i c h s e t t h e m d i s t i n c t l y a p a r t f r o m t h e c o u n t e r f o r c e s c h o o l - was t h a t u n r e s t r a i n e d n u c l e a r w a r w o u l d v e r y p r o b a b l y be a c a t a s t r o p h e no m a t t e r how l a r g e and e f f e c -7 t i v e t h e f o r c e s a t A m e r i c a ' s d i s p o s a l . A s some enemy f o r c e s w o u l d s u r v i v e e v e n t h e m o s t m a s s i v e s u r p r i s e a t t a c k , r e l i a n c e o n p h y s i c a l d e s t r u c t i o n o f t h o s e f o r c e s a l o n e was i n a d e q u a t e . C o n s e q u e n t l y , i t was a l s o n e c e s s -a r y t o r e c k o n w i t h t h e p r o b l e m o f how t h e enemy i n t e n d e d t o e m p l o y h i s r e m a i n i n g n u c l e a r p o w e r . 1 7 2 . T h i s p r o b l e m c o u l d be d e a l t w i t h i n two i n t e r -r e l a t e d w a y s , t h e a r g u m e n t c o n t i n u e d . B y c o n c e n t r a t i n g o n enemy s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s , a n d b y w i t h h o l d i n g o n e ' s c o u n t e r v a l u e c a p a b i l i t y , i t m i g h t be p o s s i b l e t o f o r c e t h e a d v e r s a r y t o r e c i p r o c a t e t h i s r e s t r a i n t . The c o n f l i c t w o u l d t h e n c e n t e r a r o u n d a t t r i t i o n o f t h e o p p o s i n g m i l i t a r y f o r c e s , r a t h e r t h a n t h e d e l i b e r a t e m a s s a c r e o f t h e c o m b a t -a n t s ' r e s p e c t i v e p o p u l a t i o n s . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h i s , a g r a d u a l r a t e o f f i r e , r a t h e r t h a n a m a s s i v e a n d s p a s m o d i c o n e , was d e s i r a b l e . I f a m u l t i t u d e o f weapons was l a u n c h e d s i m u l t a n e o u s l y , t h e enemy m i g h t b e l i e v e t h a t h e was a b o u t t o come u n d e r a l l - o u t a t t a c k , o r , i f he s u f f e r e d s u b s t a n t i a l c o l l a t e r a l damage t o h i s u r b a n a r e a s , h e m i g h t c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e y w e r e a b o u t t o be o b l i t e r a t e d . I n e i t h e r c a s e , h e w o u l d p r o b a b l y l a u n c h a n a t t a c k a g a i n s t A m e r i c a n c i t i e s , a s w e l l a s a n y r e m a i n i n g A m e r i c a n s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s . A n u n r e s t r a i n e d r a t e o f f i r e , t h e n , m i g h t a c t u a l l y d e f e a t t h e p u r p o s e o f r e s t r a i n t i n t a r g e t i n g . I n c o n t r a s t t o t h i s , a s m a l l i n i t i a l a t t a c k m i g h t c o n v i n c e t h e enemy o f o n e ' s own f i r m n e s s o f p u r p o s e w h i l e o f f e r i n g a com-p a r a t i v e l y s m a l l p r o v o c a t i o n . S u c h a c o m b i n a t i o n o f 1 7 3 . r e a s s u r a n c e t h a t one was w i l l i n g t o s e t b o u n d s o n t h e l e v e l o f v i o l e n c e f o r t h e t i m e b e i n g , a n d t h e t h r e a t o f e s c a l a t i o n i f t h e s e b o u n d s w e r e n o t o b s e r v e d , m i g h t w e l l c a u s e t h e K r e m l i n t o r e c i p r o c a t e t h i s r e s t r a i n t . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h i s , b y p r o l o n g i n g t h e t i m e s p a n o f a n u c l e a r e x c h a n g e , t h i s c o m b i n a t i o n m i g h t a l s o g i v e i t t i m e t o r e a s s e s s a c o u r s e w h i c h c o u l d l e a d t o i t s e v e n t u a l d e s -t r u c t i o n o r d e f e a t , a n d m i g h t c o n s e q u e n t l y i n d u c e i t t o n e g o t i a t e a n e n d t o t h a t e x c h a n g e . The i d e n t i t y o f t h e men who t r a n s m i t t e d t h e s e i S e a s t o K e n n e d y a n d McNamara c a n n o t be e s t a b l i s h e d w i t h c e r t a i n t y . N i t z e , who h a d c l o s e c o n t a c t s w i t h t h e c i v i l i a n s t r a t e g i s t s , a n d who was a s t r a t e g i s t i n h i s own r i g h t , may h a v e a d v a n c e d t h i s c a s e i n h i s i n t e r i m r e p o r t o n n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y i n l a t e 1 960. Y e t more l i k e l y , ex-members o f t h e RAND C o r p o r a t i o n who h a d moved t o p o s t s i n t h e D e f e n s e D e p a r t m e n t ; s u c h a s A l a i n E n t h o v e n a n d C h a r l e s H i t c h , may h a v e p r e a c h e d t h e g o s p e l o f l i m i t e d n u c l e a r w a r . W h a t e v e r t h e s o u r c e o f h i s e n l i g h t e n m e n t , K e n n e d y h a d d i s p l a y e d a l m o s t i m m e d i a t e i n t e r e s t i n t h i s I.' 174. c o n c e p t . As was s e e n e a r l i e r , h e h a d s p e c i f i e d i n h i s message o f M a r c h 28, 1961 t h a t A m e r i c a n s t r a t e g i c weapons "must be u s a b l e i n a manner p e r m i t t i n g d e l i b e r a t i o n a n d d i s c r i m i n a t i o n a s t o t i m i n g s c o p e , a n d t a r g e t s " a n d t h a t 9 t h e y must a l s o be " s e c u r e a g a x n s t p r o l o n g e d r e - a t t a c k . " McNamara h a d e v i d e n c e d a somewhat more g u a r d e d i n t e r e s t when he d i r e c t e d t h e J.G.S. s t u d y o n " c o n t r o l l e d r e s p o n s e 10 an d n e g o t i a t i n g p a u s e s . " By l a t e 1 9 6 1 , t h e s t a t u s o f t h i s s t r a t e g y h a d p r o g r e s s e d t o t h e p o i n t w h e r e , a c c o r d i n g t o S o r e n s e n , t h e P r e s i d e n t b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e A m e r i c a n s e c o n d - s t r i k e c a p a b i l i t y s h o u l d be s u f f i c i e n t t o : . . . d e s t r o y ( a ) , i f n e c e s s a r y , t h e a g g r e s s o r ' s c i t i e s a n d p o p u l a t i o n a n d (b) e n o u g h o f h i s r e -m a i n i n g m i l i t a r y s t r e n g t h , w h i l e s t i l l r e t a i n i n g some r e s e r v e o f o u r own, t o c o n v i n c e h i m t h a t h e c o u l d n e i t h e r c o m p l e t e o u r d e s t r u c t i o n n o r w i n t h e w a r . T h r o u g h o u t t h e f i r s t h a l f o f 1962 t h i s s t r a t e g y was a l s o a c c o r d e d e v e r - i n c r e a s i n g i m p o r t a n c e i n p u b l i c s t a t e m e n t s b y McNamara. On J a n u a r y 19, 1962, i n h i s a n n u a l p o s t u r e s t a t e m e n t , he s u p p l e m e n t e d h i s p a s t c r i t i c i s m s o f manned bombers w i t h t h e a r g u m e n t t h a t : . . . r e l i a n c e o n w a r n i n g a n d q u i c k r e s p o n s e means 1 7 5 . t h a t t h e bombers m u s t be c o m m i t t e d t o t h e a t t a c k v e r y e a r l y i n t h e w a r a n d c a n n o t be h e l d i n r e s e r v e t o be u s e d i n a c o n t r o l l e d a n d d e l i b e r a t e way. A month l a t e r , h e a f f i r m e d t h a t t h e " c o n t r o l l e d a n d d e l i b e r -a t e " r e s p o n s e e n v i s a g e d i n t h e " h o s t a g e c i t y " s t r a t e g y h a d become a new a n d v i t a l o p t i o n w h i c h h i s c o u n t r y w o u l d c o n s i d e r i n t h e e v e n t o f a t h e r m o n u c l e a t w a r : We may h a v e t o r e t a l i a t e w i t h a s i n g l e m a s s i v e a t t a c k . O r , we may be a b l e t o u s e o u r r e t a l i a t o r y f o r c e s t o l i m i t damage t o o u r s e l v e s a n d o u r a l l i e s b y k n o c k i n g o u t t h e enemy's b a s e s b e f o r e he h a s h a d t i m e t o l a u n c h h i s s e c o n d s a l v o s . We' may s e e k t o t e r m i n a t e a w a r o n f a v o u r a b l e t e r m s b y u s i n g o u r f o r c e s a s a b a r g a i n i n g weapon - b y t h r e a t e n i n g f u r t h e r a t t a c k . I n a n y c a s e , o u r l a r g e r e s e r v e o f p r o t e c t e d f i r e p o w e r w o u l d g i v e t h e enemy a n i n -c e n t i v e t o a v o i d o u r c i t i e s a n d t o s t o p a w a r . O u r new p o l i c y g i v e s us t h e f l e x i b i l i t y t o c h o o s e among s e v e r a l o p e r a t i o n a l p l a n s , b u t d o e s n o t r e q u i r e t h a t we make a n y a d v a n c e commitment w i t h r e s p e c t t o d o c t r i n e o r t a r g e t s . - * - 3 I n e a r l y May, when t h e s e m i - a n n u a l m e e t i n g o f N.A.T.O. f o r e i g n a n d d e f e n s e m i n i s t e r s c o n v e n e d a t A t h e n s , t h e S e c r e t a r y o f D e f e n s e f o r c e f u l l y s o u g h t t o w i n h i s N.A.T.O. 14 c o l l e a g u e s o v e r t o t h i s s t r a t e g i c p r e s c r i p t i o n . The e s s e n c e o f h i s e x p o s i t i o n a t t h e A t h e n s m e e t i n g , a n d h i s m o s t d e f i n i t i v e p u b l i c e n d o r s e m e n t o f t h i s d o c -t r i n e , was p r e s e n t e d i n a s p e e c h d e l i v e r e d a t A n n A r b o r , 176 M i c h i g a n o n J u n e 16, 1 9 6 2 . A n u c l e a r c o n f l i c t , h e s t a t e d , was h i g h l y i m p r o b a b l e : . . . g i v e n t h e c u r r e n t b a l a n c e o f n u c l e a r power, w h i c h we c o n f i d e n t l y e x p e c t t o m a i n t a i n i n t h e y e a r s a h e a d , a s u r p r i s e n u c l e a r a t t a c k i s s i m p l y n o t a r a t i o n a l a c t f o r a n y enemy. N o r w o u l d i t be r a t i o n a l f o r a n enemy t o t a k e t h e i n i t i a t i v e i n t h e u s e o f , n u c l e a r weapons a s a n o u t g r o w t h o f a l i m i t e d engagement i n E u r o p e o r e l s e w h e r e . I t h i n k we a r e e n t i t l e d t o c o n c l u d e t h a t e i t h e r o f t h e s e a c t i o n s h a s b e e n made h i g h l y u n l i k e l y . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , i m p r o b a b i l i t y was n o t i m p o s s i b i l i t y , a n d t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s h a d t o p r o v i d e a g a i n s t t h e o u t b r e a k o f s u c h a c o n f l i c t : . . . t h e mere f a c t t h a t no n a t i o n c o u l d r a t i o n a l l y t a k e s t e p s l e a d i n g t o a n u c l e a r w a r d o e s n o t g u a r a n t e e t h a t a n u c l e a r w a r c a n n o t t a k e p l a c e . N o t o n l y do n a t i o n s s o m e t i m e s a c t i n ways t h a t a r e h a r d t o e x -p l a i n o n a r a t i o n a l b a s i s , b u t e v e n when a c t i n g i n a ' r a t i o n a l ' way t h e y s o m e t i m e s , i n d e e d d i s t u r b i n g l y o f t e n , a c t o n t h e b a s i s o f m i s u n d e r s t a n d i n g s o f t h e t r u e f a c t s o f a s i t u a t i o n . . . . The U n i t e d S t a t e s h a s come t o t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t , t o t h e e x t e n t f e a s i b l e , b a s i c m i l i t a r y s t r a t e g y i n a p o s s i b l e g e n e r a l n u c l e a r w a r s h o u l d be a p p r o a c h e d i n much t h e same way t h a t more c o n v e n t i o n a l m i l i t a r y o p e r a t i o n s h a v e b e e n r e g a r d e d i n t h e p a s t . T h a t i s t o s a y , p r i n c i p a l m i l i t a r y o b j e c t i v e s i n t h e e v e n t o f a n u c l e a r w a r s t e m m i n g f r o m a m a j o r a t t a c k o n t h e a l l i a n c e s h o u l d be t h e d e s t r u c t i o n o f t h e enemy's m i l i t a r y f o r c e s , n o t h i s c i v i l i a n p o p u l a t i o n . The v e r y s t r e n g t h a n d n a t u r e o f t h e a l l i a n c e f o r c e s make i t p o s s i b l e f o r us t o r e t a i n , e v e n i n t h e f a c e 1 7 7 . o f a m a s s i v e s u r p r i s e a t t a c k , s u f f i c i e n t r e s e r v e s t r i k i n g power t o d e s t r o y a n enemy s o c i e t y i f d r i v e n t o i t . I n o t h e r w o r d s , we a r e g i v i n g a p o s s i b l e o p p o n e n t t h e s t r o n g e s t i m a g i n a b l e i n c e n t i v e t o r e f r a i n f r o m s t r i k i n g o u r own c i t i e s . T h u s , t h e " h o s t a g e c i t y " s t r a t e g y h a d r i s e n t o t h e e m i n e n c e o f e s t a b l i s h e d o f f i c i a l d o c t r i n e - a n d h a d b e e n p r e s e n t e d i n a manner w h i c h came v e r y c l o s e t o t h e " a d v a n c e c o m m i t -ment w i t h r e s p e c t t o d o c t r i n e o r t a r g e t s " w h i c h McNamara h a d a v o i d e d o n l y f o u r months e a r l i e r . I I . FACTORS UNDERLYING THIS DEVELOPMENT A. THE R E L A T I V E IMPORTANCE OF THE DETERRENT AND WAR-WINNING ASPECTS OF THIS STRATEGY One o f t h e m a j o r c a u s e s o f t h i s phenomenon, o f c o u r s e , was t h e K e n n e d y a d m i n i s t r a t i o n ' s d e s i r e t o b r o a d e n i t s o p t i o n s e v e n i n a t h e r m o n u c l e a r w a r . I t s p r e d e c e s s o r ' s d e f i n i t i o n o f c o e r c i v e d e t e r r e n c e h a d r e p r e s e n t e d a n i m p r o v e m e n t o v e r t h e p u r e l y c o u n t e r v a l u e s t r a t e g y w h i c h i t h a d p r e v i o u s l y e m b r a c e d ; t h e c o u n t e r f o r c e a t t a c k s w h i c h w e r e t o a c c o m p any t h e a t t a c k s o n enemy c i t i e s w o u l d l e s s e n damage t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t o some e x t e n t . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , i t was s t i l l h i g h l y p r o b a b l e t h a t a s u b s t a n t i a l p o r t i o n o f 1 7 8 . t h e o p p o s i n g f o r c e s w o u l d e s c a p e d e s t r u c t i o n , a n d , w i t h t h e i r own c i t i e s d e s t r o y e d , i t was e q u a l l y p r o b a b l e t h a t t h e R u s s i a n s w o u l d d i r e c t a l a r g e number o f weapons a g a i n s t A m e r i c a n c i t i e s . A t h e r m o n u c l e a r w a r , t h e n , w o u l d s t i l l be e s s e n t i a l l y a m u t u a l a n d f u t i l e m a s s a c r e . I f t h e c o n f l i c t was g o v e r n e d b y t h e r u l e s l a i d down i n t h e " h o s t a g e c i t y " s t r a t e g y , h o w e v e r , t h e r e was a c h a n c e t h a t t h i s s t a t e o f a f f a i r s m i g h t be c h a n g e d c o n -s i d e r a b l y . As McNamara p r e s e n t e d i t i n h i s A n n A r b o r s p e e c h , i t was "a s t r a t e g y d e s i g n e d t o p r e s e r v e t h e f a b r i c o f o u r ( t h e W e s t e r n a l l i e s ' ) s o c i e t i e s i f w a r 17 s h o u l d o c c u r . " S u c h a n outcome m i g h t come a b o u t , o f c o u r s e , i f a n e n d t o t h i s e x c h a n g e c o u l d be n e g o t i a t e d b e f o r e t h e s u p e r p o w e r s h a d e x h a u s t e d t h e i r n u c l e a r a r s e n a l s . M o r e o v e r , i t seemed p o s s i b l e t h a t W e s t e r n s o c i e t y m i g h t be p r o t e c t e d e v e n i f a n e g o t i a t e d e n d t o t h e e x c h a n g e was i m p o s s i b l e . A d m i t t e d l y , c i t y - a v o i d e n c e m i g h t a c h i e v e r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e i n i t s e l f ; i t was e s t i m -a t e d t h a t , i n t h e a b s e n c e o f p r o t e c t i o n a g a i n s t f a l l o u t , c a s u a l t i e s w o u l d o n l y be r e d u c e d f r o m 215 m i l l i o n t o a b o u t 18 70 m i l l i o n . N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h i s s t r a t e g y m i g h t p e r f o r m a c r u c i a l s e r v i c e , i n a s m u c h a s i t m i g h t m i n i m i z e d i r e c t 179. h i t s o n u r b a n a r e a s , a n d h e n c e m i g h t m i n i m i z e t h e t h r e a t f r o m b l a s t a n d t h e r m a l e f f e c t s . T h i s i n t u r n m i g h t g r e a t l y e n h a n c e t h e v a l u e o f a n a t i o n a l f a l l o u t s h e l t e r s y s t e m ; i n d e e d , i t was e s t i m a t e d t h a t a p u r e l y c o u n t e r -f o r c e e x c h a n g e , t o g e t h e r w i t h s u c h a p r o g r a m , m i g h t d e -19 c r e a s e t h e number o f v i c t i m s t o 25 m i l l i o n . A n o t h e r a t t r a c t i v e a s p e c t o f t h i s s t r a t e g y was t h e f a c t t h a t i t m i g h t e n a b l e t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t o i m p o s e i t s p o l i t i c a l w i l l o n t h e U.S.S.R. a t t h e c l o s e o f h o s t i l -i t i e s . A s was s e e n a b o v e , a c o u n t e r v a l u e e x c h a n g e , o r a c o n v u l s i v e c o u n t e r v a l u e - c o u n t e r f o r c e e x c h a n g e , c o u l d i n a l l p r o b a b i l i t y s e r v e no r a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l e n d ; b y e n s u r -i n g t h a t b o t h s i d e s w o u l d be m o r t a l l y r a v a g e d , i t made a n y t a l k o f " v i c t o r y " m e a n i n g l e s s . C l o s e l y l i n k e d t o t h i s , i t a l s o meant t h a t much o f t h e A m e r i c a n n u c l e a r s u p e r i o r i t y w o u l d i n e f f e c t be u s e l e s s i n w a r t i m e ; a l a r g e p e r c e n t a g e o f A m e r i c a n f o r c e s w o u l d b e t a r g e t e d o n c i t i e s a l r e a d y r a v a g e d , o r o n weapons s i t e s a l r e a d y d e s t r o y e d o r v a c a t e d . I n c o n t r a s t t o t h i s , t h e p r o l o n g e d c o u n t e r f o r c e e x c h a n g e e n v i s a g e d i n t h e " h o s t a g e c i t y " s t r a t e g y m i g h t p e r m i t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t o b r i n g fer more 180. o f h e r s i z e a b l e n u m e r i c a l s u p e r i o r i t y t o b e a r i n t h e s e r v i c e o f h e r p o l i t i c a l g o a l s . W i t h a f o r c e w h i c h b y t h e e n d o f 1962 h a d g r o w n t o a p p r o x i m a t e l y 200 I.C.B.M.s a n d 144 S.L.B.M.s, c o m p a r e d t o S o v i e t f o r c e s e s t i m a t e d a t 75 t o 100 I.C.B.M.s, s h e was e m i n e n t l y w e l l e q u i p p e d t o p r e v a i l i n a g r a d u a l w a r 20 o f a t t r i t i o n . I n d e e d , t h i s k n o w l e d g e i n i t s e l f m i g h t c o m p e l t h e S o v i e t s t o c e a s e a s t r u g g l e w h i c h t h e y knew t h e y c o u l d n o t w i n , a n d t o n e g o t i a t e a n e n d t o h o s t i l i t i e s w h i l e t h e i r s u r v i v i n g n u c l e a r f o r c e s g a v e t h em some s l i g h t b a r g a i n i n g p o w e r . I n a n y c a s e , t h e r e s u l t w o u l d be e s s e n -t i a l l y t h e same; p e a c e on A m e r i c a n t e r m s . F i n a l l y , t h e s e p o s s i b i l i t i e s a l s o p r e s e n t e d a s o l u t i o n t o a more s p e c i f i c p r o b l e m w h i c h h a d p l a g u e d W a s h i n g t o n e v e r s i n c e t h e dawn o f t h e t h e r m o n u c l e a r a g e . A l t h o u g h t h e r e i s room f o r d o u b t i n t h i s r e g a r d , i t seems p r o b a b l e t h a t t h e A m e r i c a n s w o u l d h a v e u l t i m a t e l y r e s o r t e d t o s t r a t e g i c t h e r m o n u c l e a r weapons i n d e f e n s e o f W e s t e r n E u r o p e i f a l l o t h e r means f a i l e d ; t h i s a r e a was t o o i m p o r t a n t , a n d t o o many A m e r i c a n t r o o p s w e r e c o m m i t t e d t h e r e , f o r them t o h a v e done o t h e r w i s e . I t i s u n q u e s t i o n -1 8 1 . a b l e , t h o u g h , t h a t t h e y w o u l d h a v e done s o v e r y g r u d g i n g l y ; a l l i e s , e v e n v i t a l o n e s , w e r e n o t a s v i t a l a s t h e A m e r i c a n h o m e l a n d . The " h o s t a g e c i t y " s t r a t e g y seemed t o be a v e r y a p p r o p r i a t e s o l u t i o n t o t h i s c o n u n d r u m , i n a s m u c h a s i t o f f e r e d a c h a n c e o f d e f e n d i n g t h i s a r e a w i t h o u t s a c r i f i c i n g t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s h e r s e l f . W i t h i n t h i s c o n t e x t , s a l v a t i o n , a n d i n d e e d v i c -t o r y , m i g h t come f r o m s e v e r a l q u a r t e r s . F i r s t , t h e v e r y f a c t t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s w o u l d p r o b a b l y h a v e t o s t r i k e f i r s t m i g h t be t u r n e d t o a d v a n t a g e i f t h i s s t r a t e g y was e m p l o y e d . B y m a k i n g a n u n m i s t a k a b l y l i m i t e d r e s p o n s e , s u c h a s a n a t t a c k o n one o r two r e l a t i v e l y m i n o r s t r a t e g i c b a s e s w e l l r e m o v e d f r o m p o p u l a t e d a r e a s , W a s h i n g t o n m i g h t be a b l e t o c o n v i n c e t h e R u s s i a n s t h a t i t was w i l l i n g t o r e s t r i c t b o t h i t s t a r g e t i n g a n d i t s r a t e o f f i r e i f t h e y d i d l i k e -w i s e . W i t h t h e a w f u l d e c i s i o n o n w h e t h e r o r n o t t o u n l e a s h a n u c l e a r h o l o c a u s t now r e s t i n g s q u a r e l y o n t h e i r s h o u l d e r s , i t was q u i t e p o s s i b l e t h a t t h e S o v i e t l e a d e r s m i g h t t h e n a g r e e t o t h e s e f u n d a m e n t a l " r u l e s o f t h e game" f r o m t h e 21 v e r y o u t s e t . A t t h e same t i m e , t h e v e r y f a c t t h a t s t r a t e g i c t h e r m o n u c l e a r weapons h a d b e e n l a u n c h e d m i g h t a l s o c o n v i n c e them o f A m e r i c a ' s d e t e r m i n a t i o n t o r e s i s t 182. t h e i r attack on Western Europe with a l l the means at her disposal. Given the vast imbalance i n the superpowers' nuclear arsenals, t h i s i n turn might force them to recog-nize that v i c t o r y was p h y s i c a l l y impossible and to withdraw t h e i r forces from Western Europe and cease the strategic exchange. Al t e r n a t i v e l y , the combination of reassurance and threat of escalation might achieve the same ends by working on the Kremlin's assessment of the r e l a t i v e r i s k s involved, As Nitze had pointed out i n the study examined e a r l i e r , Soviet foreign p o l i c y objectives, l i k e American ones, had varying p r i o r i t i e s ; preservation of Soviet society was of overriding importance, control over the communist bloc came second, and undermining the power of the 22 Western camp was subsidiary to both of these. As a con-f l i c t i n Western Europe would probably stem from the l a s t concern, or perhaps i n d i r e c t l y from the second one, i t was quite possible that the Russian leaders might reassess t h e i r course once they r e a l i z e d that i t was unquestionably threatening t h e i r very existence. Thus, confronted by the prospect of ultimate?ruin for a less than v i t a l objective, 183. t h e y m i g h t c o n c l u d e t h a t s u r v i v a l was t h e b e t t e r p a r t o f v a l o u r , a n d a g r e e t o A m e r i c a n p e a c e t e r m s . A p p e a l i n g a s t h e s e t h e o r e t i c a l a d v a n t a g e s may h a v e b e e n t o K e n n e d y a n d McNamara, h o w e v e r , i t i s e x t r e m e l y u n l i k e l y t h a t t h e y h a d much g e n u i n e f a i t h i n t h e " h o s t a g e c i t y " s t r a t e g y ' s p r e s c r i p t i o n s f o r v i c t o r y , o r e v e n s u r v i v a l . P r o j e c t i o n s o f c a s u a l t y r a t e s i n a t h e r m o n u c l e a r c o n f l i c t , a f t e r a l l , w e r e i n e v i t a b l y s p e c u l a t i v e , a n d i t was e m i n e n t l y p o s s i b l e t h a t t h e f i g u r e s c i t e d i n s u p p o r t o f t h i s s t r a t e g y w e r e o v e r l y o p t i m i s t i c . M o r e o v e r , e v e n a s s u m i n g t h a t t h e s e f i g u r e s w e r e r e a s o n a b l y a c c u r a t e , t h e y s t i l l p r o b a b l y r e p r e s e n t e d a l e v e l o f damage w h i c h w o u l d be i n t o l e r a b l e t o t h e W e s t . W i t h t h e s e f a c t o r s i n m i n d , McNamara r e -m i n d e d h i s A n n A r b o r a u d i e n c e o f t h e s o b e r a n d i n e s c a p a b l e f a c t t h a t "damage t o t h e c i v i l s o c i e t i e s o f t h e a l l i a n c e 23 r e s u l t i n g f r o m n u c l e a r w a r f a r e c o u l d b e v e r y g r a v e . " Y e t more f u n d a m e n t a l , t h e c h a n c e s o f a c t u a l l y l i m i t i n g a t h e r m o n u c l e a r e x c h a n g e w e r e m a n i f e s t l y s l e n d e r . C o l l a t e r a l damage t o u r b a n a r e a s m i g h t be s o e x t e n s i v e t h a t t h e enemy m i g h t c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s was b e n t u p o n d e s t r u c t i o n o f h i s p o p u l a t i o n a n d i n d u s t r y . I n t h i s 184. c a s e , c o u n t e r v a l u e r e t a l i a t i o n w o u l d be a l l b u t i n e v i t a b l e . I t was p o s s i b l e , t o o , t h a t h i s v a l u a t i o n o f t h e s t a k e s i n -v o l v e d m i g h t be s o h i g h t h a t h e w o u l d u l t i m a t e l y c h o o s e m u t u a l e x t i n c t i o n i n a c o u n t e r v a l u e e x c h a n g e o v e r a p u r e l y c o u n t e r f o r c e o n e . On a l e s s t h e o r e t i c a l l e v a l , S o v i e t s t r a t e g i c d o c t r i n e h e l d t h a t a n u c l e a r w a r w o u l d i n v o l v e s p a s m o d i c a t t a c k s o n b o t h enemy c i t i e s a n d enemy s t r a t e g i c 24 f o r c e s . W i t h t h e R u s s i a n s f i r m l y c o m m i t t e d t o t h i s d o c t r i n e , w i t h S o v i e t I.C.B.M.s i n s u f f i c i e n t l y a c c u r a t e f o r p r e c i s e t a r g e t i n g , a n d w i t h S o v i e t s t r a t e g i c f o r c e s s o q u a n t i t a t i v e l y a n d q u a l i t a t i v e l y i n f e r i o r t h a t t h e y w e r e i l l s u i t e d f o r a n y t h i n g b u t a c a t a c l y s m i c f i r s t s t r i k e , i t was h i g h l y u n l i k e l y t h a t t h e y w o u l d l i m i t t h e i r r e s p o n s e i n a n y way o n c e a c e n t r a l w a r e r u p t e d . The i n f l u e n c e o f t h e s e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s was e v i d e n t i n t h e m a r k e d r e l u c t a n c e o f a number o f k e y A d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f f i c i a l s t o a c c e p t t h i s r e v o l u t i o n a r y new s t r a t e g y . A s l a t e as November 17, 1961 a h i g h l y s k e p t i c a l McNamara h a d a s s e r t e d : I t h i n k i t i s a t l e a s t a s l i k e l y t h a t o u r c i t i e s w o u l d be a t t a c k e d a s t h a t o u r m i l i t a r y t a r g e t s w o u l d be a t t a c k e d . I d o n ' t s h a r e t h e v i e w s o f some t h a t o n l y t h e m i l i t a r y i n s t a l l a t i o n s w o u l d b e t a r g e t e d * 185 J I n a s i m i l a r v e i n , G i l p a t r i