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Soviet influence in the Third World : indicators of influence Smith, Kevin Michael 1991

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SOVIET INFLUENCE IN THE THIRD WORLD: INDICATORS OF INFLUENCE by KEVIN MICHAEL SMITH B.A., The U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 198 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (Department of P o l i t i c a l Science) We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming t o the r e q u i r e d standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA October 1991 (cT)Kevin Michael Smith, 1991 In presenting this thesis in partial fulfilment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of British Columbia, I agree that the Library shall make it freely available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of this thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of my department or by his or her representatives. It is understood that copying or publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. The University of British Columbia Vancouver, Canada Date ^ ^ T Z f e e f V B> . \V\ 1 DE-6 (2/88) ABSTRACT D i s c u s s i o n o f t h e i n f l u e n c e o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n i s o f t e n i n vague terms. The term " S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e " i s u s u a l l y used w i t h o u t c o n c e r n f o r i t s c l e a r d e f i n i t i o n . T h i s paper a t t e m p t s t o d e a l w i t h t h e n o t i o n o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e as i t r e l a t e s t o t h e T h i r d World, and t o a n a l y s e t h e e x t e n t o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n T h i r d W orld n a t i o n s . I n d o i n g t h i s , t h r e e main q u e s t i o n s a r e asked: What i s i n f l u e n c e ? What e v i d e n c e i s t h e r e o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e ? Can S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e be measured? F i r s t , t h e n o t i o n o f i n f l u e n c e i s d e f i n e d . Second, c r i t e r i a — t h e i n d i c a t o r s o f i n f l u e n c e — f o r i d e n t i f y i n g and m e a s u r i n g , r e l a t i v e l y , S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n t h e T h i r d W orld a r e o u t l i n e d and e v a l u a t e d . The i n d i c a t o r s form a s i m p l e methodology f o r examining S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . T h i r d , t h e i n d i c a t o r s a r e a p p l i e d t o two case s t u d i e s — S o m a l i a d u r i n g t h e 1960s and 1970s, and Angola d u r i n g t h e same t i m e p e r i o d . The i n d i c a t o r s a r e : 1/ Domestic Dissonance 2/ S o v i e t A c q u i s i t i o n o f M i l i t a r y , N a v a l and A i r F a c i l i t i e s 3/ S o v i e t G o a l s and O b j e c t i v e s 4/ A t t i t u d e s and P e r c e p t i o n s o f B 5/ Q u a n t i t a t i v e Measures o f Trade, A i d and P e r s o n n e l 6/ The T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n 7/ A Vanguard P a r t y C e r t a i n i n d i c a t o r s a r e o f l e s s s i g n i f i c a n c e t h a n i s u s u a l l y assumed: t h e T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n , t h e Vanguard i i P a r t y , Q u a n t i t a t i v e Measures of Trade and A i d , and S o v i e t A c q u i s i t i o n o f F a c i l i t i e s . The most v a l u a b l e i n d i c a t o r s a r e A t t i t u d e s and P e r c e p t i o n s , Domestic D i s s o n a n c e and p o s s i b l y P e r s o n n e l . The use o f t h e s e i n d i c a t o r s i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e a n a l y s i s o f a s p e c i f i c i n c i d e n t o f a t t e m p t e d S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e can d e t e r m i n e t h e e x t e n t o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . A n a l y s t s t e n d t o a t t r i b u t e s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e t o t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . However, o f t e n what i s assumed t o be s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e i n v o l v e s mutual b e n e f i t s and\or a l a c k o f commitment t o t h e i s s u e by t h e T h i r d World n a t i o n . Two f a c t o r s a r e v e r y i m p o r t a n t f o r d e t e r m i n i n g t h e e x t e n t o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e : (1) The i m p o r t a n c e of t h e i s s u e t o t h e T h i r d W orld n a t i o n ; (2) The d egree o f c o n f l i c t between S o v i e t o b j e c t i v e s and t h o s e o f t h e T h i r d W o r l d n a t i o n . I n t h e S o m a l i a and A n g o l a c a s e s t u d i e s , t h e e x t e n t o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e became e v i d e n t when t h e T h i r d World n a t i o n ' s v i t a l i n t e r e s t s were a t s t a k e . I t i s i m p o r t a n t not t o o v er e s t i m a t e S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e , o r t o equate S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e w i t h S o v i e t c o n t r o l o v e r a n a t i o n . The key t o a n a l y s i n g i n t e r - n a t i o n i n f l u e n c e i s r e a l i s i n g t h a t i t s e x t e n t can v a r y and i t does have l i m i t a t i o n s . i i i TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT i i TABLE OF CONTENTS i v CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 CHAPTER 2 THE NOTION OF INFLUENCE CHAPTER 3 THE INDICATORS OF INFLUENCE CHAPTER 4 THE CASE STUDY OF SOMALIA CHAPTER 5 THE CASE STUDY OF ANGOLA CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSION 103 FOOTNOTES 111 BIBLIOGRAPHY 119 CHAPTER 1 — INTRODUCTION O f t e n t h e r o l e a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e S o v i e t U n i o n i n i n t e r n a -t i o n a l a f f a i r s i s based upon assumption r a t h e r t h a n t h o r o u g h r e s e a r c h and a n a l y s i s . C e r t a i n l y , t h e U.S.S.R. i s an i m p o r t a n t f o r c e i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e a l m ; from 1955 t o 1990, i t s m i l i t a r y might a l o n e g r a n t e d i t t h e u n d e n i a b l e s t a t u s o f a superpower. But t h e d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e i n f l u e n c e o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n i s o f t e n i n vague terms. As we w i l l d i s c u s s i n f u r t h e r d e t a i l , t h e r e i s much e v i d e n c e t o show t h a t a n a t i o n ' s power does n o t n e c e s s a r i l y t r a n s l a t e e q u i v a l e n t l y i n t o i n f l u e n c e . I n many i n s t a n c e s , a s m a l l and not v e r y p o w e r f u l n a t i o n — as d e t e r m i n e d by any measurement, be i t m i l i t a r y , economic, p o l i t i c a l o r whatever -- does n o t comply w i t h t h e w i s h e s o f a s t r o n g e r a d v e r s a r y o r a l l y . A l t h o u g h t h e S o v i e t Union i s a p o w e r f u l n a t i o n and a s i g n i f i c a n t p l a y e r on t h e w o r l d s t a g e , i t , l i k e o t h e r w o r l d powers, i s o f t e n f r u s t r a t e d by t h e l i m i t s o f i t s i n f l u e n c e d e s p i t e i t s e x t e n s i v e m i l i t a r y , economic and p o l i t i c a l c a p a b i l i t i e s . I f t h e S o v i e t s cannot t r a n s l a t e t h e i r "power" i n t o i n f l u e n c e , t h e n t h e concept o f i n f l u e n c e needs t o be examined more c l o s e l y . The term " S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e " must a l s o be d e f i n e d . The term " i n f l u e n c e " t e n d s t o be u t i l i z e d i n such a broad sense w i t h l i t t l e c o n c e r n f o r a c l e a r d e f i n i t i o n t h a t i t 1 v e r g e s on b e i n g m e a n i n g l e s s . For example, c o n s i d e r s t a t e m e n t s such a s : The U n i t e d S t a t e s and t h e S o v i e t U n i o n a r e b a t t l i n g f o r i n f l u e n c e i n t h e M i d d l e E a s t ; t h e West must combat c r e e p i n g S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n t h e T h i r d W o r l d ; t h e S o v i e t g r and d e s i g n i n v o l v e s expanding i t s i n f l u e n c e t h r o u g h o u t t h e g l o b e . These s t a t e m e n t s seem t o say something but l a c k s p e c i f i c i t y . The n o t i o n o f i n f l u e n c e i s u n d e f i n e d and ominous; i t seems t o be a n e b u l o u s f o r c e t h a t spreads i n s i d i o u s l y . But what e v i d e n c e i s t h e r e o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e ? How can i t be i d e n t i f i e d ? Can i t be measured? A l l of t h e s e q u e s t i o n s must be a d d r e s s e d . T h i s paper a t t e m p t s t o d e a l w i t h t h e n o t i o n o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e as i t r e l a t e s t o t h e T h i r d World, and t o a n a l y z e t h e e x t e n t o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n T h i r d World n a t i o n s . T h i s e n t a i l s g o i n g beyond t h e vague n o t i o n s and a s s u m p t i o n s t h a t c h a r a c t e r i z e much o f t h e p a s t a n a l y s i s o f S o v i e t - T h i r d W orld r e l a t i o n s . The terms o f r e f e r e n c e o f any a n a l y s i s have t o be c l e a r l y d e f i n e d and u n d e r s t o o d b e f o r e any f u r t h e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g can be a c c o m p l i s h e d . We must know what we mean by " i n f l u e n c e " and, t h e r e f o r e , " S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e " o r e v e r y t h i n g t h a t f o l l o w s w i l l magnify t h e i n i t i a l f a i l u r e t o d e f i n e our terms. One r e a s o n f o r t h e l a c k o f i n - d e p t h a n a l y s i s o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e has been t h e s e c r e t i v e n a t u r e of t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . I n t h e p a s t , t h e s t a t e has m a i n t a i n e d f i r m c o n t r o l o f i n f o r m a t i o n w h i c h has made a n a l y s i s o f S o v i e t f o r e i g n p o l i c y 2 very d i f f i c u l t . The closed society of the U.S.S.R. resulted i n our lack of knowledge and understanding of that country. Despite the changes r e s u l t i n g from Gorbachev's glasnost, so very l i t t l e i s known about Soviet goals and the government's decision-making process that analysts tend to resort to assumption or extrapolation based upon minute pieces of evidence. Unfortunately, t h i s lack of information means that analysts r e l y more heavily upon t h e i r preconceived notions than they might otherwise. An author may assume the Soviets are bent upon world domination or, on the contrary, w i l l assume they are security-minded and have no desire f o r expansion. Whatever the assumption, i t remains j u s t that, an assumption. Every d e t a i l , every scrap of information regarding Soviet actions, i s f i l t e r e d through a p a r t i c u l a r mind-set. Importantly, i t i s a rare occasion when assumptions are stated as such; more often they are presented as f a c t . However, an author's bias usually becomes evident to those who study Soviet foreign p o l i c y with any r e g u l a r i t y , i f not from a sing l e a r t i c l e then from the consideration of a number of the analyst's written pieces. An author's presentation of the " f a c t s " i s always affected by h i s or her bias. Analysts tend to be s e l e c t i v e i n t h e i r presentation of information i n order to support t h e i r preconceived notions. Information and arguments contradicting these notions may be given l i t t l e or no consideration i n the 3 a u t h o r ' s a n a l y s i s . The a u t h o r ' s b e l i e f as t o what i s c o r r e c t w i l l a l w a y s i n f l u e n c e h i s o r her a n a l y s i s . T h e r e f o r e , t r u e o b j e c t i v i t y i s n o n - e x i s t e n t . However, t h e b i a s o f an a u t h o r does n o t make t h e a n a l y s i s u s e l e s s . I t i s v a l u a b l e t o c o n s i d e r d i f f e r e n t v i e w p o i n t s on an i s s u e i n o r d e r t o g a i n a b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e s i t u a t i o n . I n f o r m a t i o n and i n s i g h t can be g a i n e d from a n a l y s e s d e s p i t e t h e i r i n h e r e n t b i a s e s ; an a n a l y s t must j u s t be aware o f t h e b i a s e s . The a c t i o n s o f t h e S o v i e t s must be examined d e s p i t e t h e l i m i t a t i o n s o f such an e x e r c i s e w h i l e a t t h e same t i m e t h o s e l i m i t a t i o n s must be r e c o g n i z e d and e n u n c i a t e d . I f ass u m p t i o n s need t o be made, t h e n t h i s s h o u l d be s t a t e d a t t h e o u t s e t . The body o f t h e t h e s i s c o n s i s t s o f t h r e e p a r t s . F i r s t , t h e n o t i o n o f i n f l u e n c e i s d e f i n e d . The aim o f t h i s s e c t i o n i s t o l i m i t and s p e c i f y i n f l u e n c e as a c o n c e p t . I n t h i s t h e o r e t i c a l e x a m i n a t i o n o f i n t e r - n a t i o n i n f l u e n c e t h e f o c u s i s upon t h e a n a l y s e s o f K a i H o l s t i , D a v i d S i n g e r and A l v i n R u b i n s t e i n . ( 1 ) Both H o l s t i and R u b i n s t e i n have p r o d u c e d w r i t i n g s which have been v e r y u s e f u l i n my a t t e m p t t o c l a r i f y t h e con c e p t o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s . The second p a r t o f t h e body d e a l s w i t h t h e e x a m i n a t i o n o f what I c a l l " i n d i c a t o r s o f i n f l u e n c e . " The aim o f t h i s s e c t i o n i s t o o u t l i n e and e v a l u a t e c r i t e r i a — t h e i n d i c a t o r s — f o r i d e n t i f y i n g and measuring i n f l u e n c e . The 4 i n d i c a t o r s a r e s p e c i f i c c r i t e r i a w hich w i l l be t h e b a s i s f o r d e t e r m i n i n g t h e e x t e n t o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e upon a T h i r d W o r l d n a t i o n . My i n t e n t i s t o c r i t i q u e t h e i n d i c a t o r s i n o r d e r t o d e t e r m i n e t h e u s e f u l n e s s o f each f o r i t s a p p l i c a t i o n t o o t h e r i n s t a n c e s o f S o v i e t and T h i r d World n a t i o n i n t e r a c t i o n . The t h i r d s e c t i o n o f t h e body o f t h e t h e s i s c o n s i s t s o f t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e i n d i c a t o r s o f i n f l u e n c e t o two c a s e s t u d i e s — S o m a l i a d u r i n g t h e 1960s and 1970s, and A n g o l a d u r i n g t h e same t i m e p e r i o d . S o m a l i a and A n g o l a were chosen f o r c a s e s t u d i e s because o f t h e apparent i n f l u e n c e t h a t t h e S o v i e t U n i o n had i n t h e s e c o u n t r i e s , and because a good d e a l o f a n a l y s i s has been done on t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n w i t h S o m a l i a and A n g o l a . To t r y t o d e a l w i t h e v e r y S o v i e t i n t e r a c t i o n w i t h a T h i r d W o r l d n a t i o n i s f a r beyond t h e scope o f t h i s p a p e r . I t has been n e c e s s a r y t o l i m i t t h e f o c u s o f t h i s a n a l y s i s t o a manageable number of S o v i e t - T h i r d World r e l a t i o n s h i p s . A n a l y s t s o f p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e and i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s have o f t e n t r i e d t o make t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e d i s c i p l i n e s more s c i e n t i f i c , w i t h l i t t l e s u c c e s s . The g o a l o f such a t t e m p t s has been t o l i m i t t h e s u b j e c t i v e element and maximize t h e o b j e c t i v e and, t h e r e b y , make p o l i t i c a l s c i e n c e and i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s approach t h e s t a t u r e o f t r u e s c i e n c e s . T h i s i s n o t t h e aim o f t h i s t h e s i s . The purpose h e r e i s not t o c r e a t e a " s c i e n t i f i c model" o f i n t e r - n a t i o n i n f l u e n c e . Even i f t h i s were p o s s i b l e , w h i c h I 5 do n o t b e l i e v e i t t o be, i t i s c e r t a i n l y beyond t h e scope o f t h i s p a p e r . R a t h e r , t h e i n t e n t i o n o f t h i s a n a l y s i s i s t o c l a r i f y t h e i d e a o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n t h e T h i r d W orld. My aim i s t o c r e a t e a s i m p l e methodology f o r i d e n t i f y i n g and me a s u r i n g , r e l a t i v e l y , S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . T h i s a n a l y s i s w i l l be c o n c e r n e d w i t h s p e c i f i c e v i d e n c e o f i n f l u e n c e r a t h e r t h a n vague r e f e r e n c e s t o , f o r example, t h e S o v i e t o b j e c t i v e " t o s p r e a d t h e p o l i t i c a l and economic i n f l u e n c e o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n i n a manner consonant w i t h i t s r o l e as a w o r l d power. 1 1 (2) There i s an i m p o r t a n t l i m i t a t i o n t o my a t t e m p t t o "measure" i n f l u e n c e . I w i l l o n l y be measuring i n f l u e n c e i n a v e r y g e n e r a l sense. There w i l l be no e x a c t f i g u r e s p r e s e n t e d , no m a t h e m a t i c a l e q u a t i o n , no q u a n t i t a t i v e measure o f any s o r t . A t t h i s p o i n t , i t i s not p o s s i b l e t o q u a n t i f y i n f l u e n c e . I t w i l l be measured o n l y as a m a t t e r o f degree and t h r o u g h c o m p a r i s o n . I n o t h e r words, we w i l l be a b l e t o say t h a t i t would seem t o be t h a t t h e U.S.S.R. i s e x e r t i n g v e r y l i t t l e , o r c o n v e r s e l y , s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e o v er n a t i o n B; o r t h a t t h e S o v i e t s have g r e a t e r i n f l u e n c e o v er n a t i o n B t h a n n a t i o n C. We w i l l n o t be a b l e t o say t h a t t h i s y e a r t h e U.S.S.R. has X u n i t s o f i n f l u e n c e over n a t i o n B whereas l a s t y e a r i t had Y u n i t s o f i n f l u e n c e . I f t h e S o v i e t s f u l f i l l 90 p e r c e n t o f t h e i n d i c a t o r s o f i n f l u e n c e w i t h r e s p e c t t o c o u n t r y B and o n l y 50 p e r c e n t o f them f o r c o u n t r y C, we might c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e U.S.S.R. has 6 more i n f l u e n c e i n n a t i o n B. However, t h i s r a i s e s t h e p r o blem o f w e i g h i n g t h e importance o f each i n d i c a t o r . C l e a r l y , c e r t a i n i n d i c a t o r s a r e o f more s i g n i f i c a n c e t h a n o t h e r s , even i f an e x a c t d e l i n e a t i o n o f each i n d i c a t o r ' s s i g n i f i c a n c e i s n o t p o s s i b l e . I w i l l n ot c r e a t e a numbering system f o r t h e i n d i c a t o r s i n o r d e r t o g i v e a more s c i e n t i f i c appearance t o t h i s a n a l y s i s ; t h i s r e s e a r c h i s f a r from m e e t i n g s c i e n t i f i c s t a n d a r d s and does not p r e t e n d t o be o t h e r w i s e . I n s t e a d , each i n d i c a t o r w i l l be examined f o r i t s v a l u e i n i d e n t i f y i n g S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . To s t a t e t h e purpose of t h i s paper i n a n o t h e r way, t h e aim i s t o a c h i e v e a method f o r c o m p i l i n g and c a t e g o r i z i n g t h e e v i d e n c e o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n t h e T h i r d W orld i n a s y s t e m a t i c manner. T h i s i s t o be done t h r o u g h t h e i n d i c a t o r s o f i n f l u e n c e . The e v i d e n c e w i l l be f u n n e l l e d and f i l t e r e d t h r o u g h t h e i n d i c a t o r s . A l s o , each i n d i c a t o r w i l l be c r i t i q u e d f o r i t s v a l u e i n d e t e r m i n i n g S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . The q u e s t i o n s , t h e r e f o r e , a r e : What a r e t h e i n d i c a t o r s o f i n f l u e n c e ? I s t h e r e some s e t of i n d i c a t o r s w h i c h can be l i s t e d and t h e n a p p l i e d t o v a r i o u s case s t u d i e s , o r must e v e r y i n v e s t i g a t i o n be c o m p l e t e l y s i n g u l a r w i t h an i n d i v i d u a l s e t o f i n d i c a t o r s f o r each case? And how u s e f u l i s each i n d i c a t o r ? I t i s my h y p o t h e s i s t h a t a l t h o u g h t h e r e i s , o f c o u r s e , i n d i v i d u a l i t y t o each case s t u d y , a s e t o f g e n e r a l l y a p p l i c a b l e i n f l u e n c e i n d i c a t o r s can be c o m p i l e d . D e s p i t e t h e l i m i t a t i o n s o f t h i s e x e r c i s e , i t can s e r v e as a v a l u a b l e 7 improvement over the present s i t u a t i o n i n which analysis of Soviet influence r e l i e s upon assumption and suffers from a lack of c l a r i t y . The basic tenet of t h i s analysis i s the desire to a t t a i n a better understanding of Soviet influence i n the Third World. 8 CHAPTER 2 — THE NOTION OF INFLUENCE The d e f i n i t i o n o f terms i s t h e i m p o r t a n t s t a r t i n g p o i n t f o r any a n a l y s i s ; i t d e l i n e a t e s t h e s u b j e c t o f a n a l y s i s and l a y s b a r e t h e assumptions o f t h e a n a l y s t . I n o r d e r t o examine S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n t h e T h i r d World, t h e n o t i o n o f i n f l u e n c e i t s e l f must f i r s t be d e f i n e d . I n i t s " everyday" s e n s e , i n f l u e n c e can be d e f i n e d as: t o c o n v i n c e , t o sway, t o per s u a d e . However, " i n f l u e n c e " as i t i s used i n t h e s t u d y o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s must be d e f i n e d . We need t o move from g e n e r a l i t i e s t o s p e c i f i c s so as t o l e n d some coh e r e n c e and i n s i g h t t o d i s c u s s i o n s o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n t h e un d e r d e v e l o p e d w o r l d . I n s t u d y i n g i n t e r - n a t i o n i n f l u e n c e , a d i s t i n c t i o n must be made between power and i n f l u e n c e . K a i H o l s t i d e f i n e s power "as t h e g e n e r a l c a p a c i t y o f a s t a t e t o c o n t r o l t h e b e h a v i o r o f o t h e r s . " ( 3 ) He d e l i n e a t e s i n f l u e n c e as an " a s p e c t o f power" w h i c h , r a t h e r t h a n b e i n g an end i n i t s e l f , i s a t o o l f o r a t t a i n i n g o r m a i n t a i n i n g c e r t a i n g o a l s . ( 4 ) S i n c e H o l s t i c o n s i d e r s i n f l u e n c e t o be an a s p e c t o f power, t h e r e f o r e , i t cannot be equated w i t h t h e power o f a n a t i o n ; i t must always be j u s t an element o f t h e l a r g e r c o n c e p t o f power. I f t h e two were e q u i v a l e n t , t h e n s u r e l y t h e S o v i e t U n i o n would have maximum i n f l u e n c e o v e r any T h i r d World n a t i o n s i n c e i t i s c l e a r l y more p o w e r f u l by any t y p e o f measurement. W i t h i t s m i l i t a r y , economic and p o l i t i c a l m i g h t , 9 the Soviet Union would be able to convince a poor, underdeveloped state to act as i t wishes. Yet, despite the Soviet power, i t cannot necessarily intimidate other i n t e r n a t i o n a l players into following i t s w i l l : " e f f e c t i v e influence cannot be deduced so l e l y from the quantity and q u a l i t y of physical c a p a b i l i t i e s . 1 1 (5) Soviet power does not t r a n s l a t e l i t e r a l l y into influence. Exercising influence i s "not,at a l l a mere r e f l e c t i o n of the d i f f e r e n t i a l i n motivations and i n the power base, defined i n economic, m i l i t a r y , or technological terms."(6) Influence i s a process involving s u b t l e t i e s that reach beyond the extent of a nation's physical c a p a b i l i t i e s . To equate a nation's influence with i t s power i s to make a c r i t i c a l error. Examples of the f a i l u r e of power to translate equivalently are numerous. A good example was the i n a b i l i t y of the United States to achieve a v i c t o r y i n i t s b a t t l e against the m i l i t a r i l y weaker North Vietnamese. The crux of influence, as H o l s t i sees i t , i s that "A seeks to influence B because i t has established c e r t a i n objectives that cannot be achieved ( i t i s perceived) unless B (and perhaps many other states as well) does X."(7) A nation has s p e c i f i c goals which i t feels can only be f u l f i l l e d by influencing another nation. A l v i n Rubinstein defines influence as something "manifested when A a f f e c t s through non-military means, d i r e c t l y or i n d i r e c t l y , the behavior of B so that i t redounds to the p o l i c y advantage of A.11 (8) H o l s t i d i f f e r s from Rubinstein i n his conception of influence since H o l s t i includes force as one of the possible t a c t i c s for wielding influence. H o l s t i ' s d e f i n i t i o n of influence includes a wider spectrum of influence t a c t i c s : (1) persuasion, (2) the o f f e r of rewards, (3) the granting of rewards, (4) the threat of punishment, (5) the i n f l i c t i o n of nonviolent punishment, and (6) force.(9) H o l s t i states that the most common t a c t i c for influencing a nation i s simple persuasion — "simply i n i t i a t i n g or discussing a proposal with another and e l i c i t i n g a favorable response without e x p l i c i t l y holding out the p o s s i b i l i t y of rewards or punishments."(10) Obviously, t h i s involves only minimal influence by A. However, t h i s paper i s mainly concerned with the more s i g n i f i c a n t acts of influence which involve threats, rewards and punishment. Influence involves the interaction of two nations i n which A attempts to get B to act as i t desires i n order to further A's p o l i c y objectives. This raises an i n t e r e s t i n g point. I f a thorough analysis of inter-nation influence i s to be accomplished, knowledge of A's p o l i c y objectives would seem to be of vast importance. With t h i s knowledge we can determine whether A has f u l f i l l e d i t s objectives and, therefore, presumably, influenced B. For s i g n i f i c a n t influence to be exercised there must be c o n f l i c t . In exercising influence, A attempts to have B act 11 i n a manner which would be b e n e f i c i a l t o the p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s of A. For A t o t r u l y i n f l u e n c e B, the p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s of A and B should be d i v e r g e n t . In other words, the g o a l s of the two n a t i o n s are i n c o n f l i c t , but A succeeds i n a l t e r i n g B's intended a c t i o n s which thereby b e n e f i t s A. The c o n f l i c t between the o b j e c t i v e s of A and B i s a t the h e a r t of the i n f l u e n c e r e l a t i o n s h i p . I f the g o a l s of A and B are not i n c o n f l i c t — t h a t i s , the g o a l s are i n harmony — then A cannot e x e r c i s e s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e over B. T h i s s i t u a t i o n r e q u i r e s o n l y p e r s u a s i o n on the p a r t of A. O f t e n what appears t o be s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e i s a c t u a l l y a c o m p a t i b i l i t y of i n t e r e s t s . A appears t o succeed i n g e t t i n g B t o do X, y e t B was a l r e a d y i n c l i n e d t o do X. In t h i s case o n l y minimal i n f l u e n c e can be a t t r i b u t e d t o A. Furthermore, B may have l i t t l e i n t e r e s t i n the i s s u e area and, t h e r e f o r e , l i t t l e commitment t o o b j e c t i v e s r e l e v a n t t o the i s s u e . I f an i s s u e i s of minor importance t o B, we cannot a t t r i b u t e more than minimal i n f l u e n c e t o A when i t succeeds i n r e a c h i n g i t s o b j e c t i v e s . Nation A has s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e when i t succeeds i n i n f l u e n c i n g a n a t i o n which i s s t r o n g l y committed t o an o b j e c t i v e which i s i n c o m p a t i b l e w i t h the o b j e c t i v e of A. The d i f f i c u l t y i s knowing whether the o b j e c t i v e s are i n c o n f l i c t and the degree of B's commitment. A c c o r d i n g t o R u b i n s t e i n , "...there are i n p r a c t i c e o n l y a few i s s u e s of g e n e r a l l y equal importance t o A and t o B on which B a d j u s t s i t s p r e f e r e n c e t o A's. In such a s i t u a t i o n A 12 e x e r c i s e s s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e ; i t s i n f l u e n c e i s o f l e s s e r s i g n i f i c a n c e when B adapts t o A's p r e f e r e n c e s on i s s u e s t h a t a r e o f low s a l i e n c e t o B."(11) T h i s i s a v e r y i m p o r t a n t d i s t i n c t i o n . Thus, t h e t a s k i s d e t e r m i n i n g t h e s a l i e n c e o f t h e i s s u e s t o B. The d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f a n a t i o n ' s f o r e i g n p o l i c y g o a l s i s alw a y s a c o n t e n t i o u s t a s k . T h i s i s e s p e c i a l l y t r u e f o r t h e U.S.S.R. When examining t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , t h e unknown t e n d s t o overwhelm t h e known. Y e t , w i t h o u t knowledge o f p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s , i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o know i f A has a c h i e v e d i t s g o a l s and B has a c t e d c o n t r a r y t o i t s own. Based upon A's a c t i o n s an a n a l y s t may make an a c c u r a t e e s t i m a t e o f i t s o b j e c t i v e s . F o r example, a s u c c e s s f u l move t o a c q u i r e t h e use o f B's p o r t f a c i l i t i e s i s a c o n c r e t e p i e c e o f e v i d e n c e . C l e a r l y , A's s h o r t term g o a l was t h e a c q u i s i t i o n o f t h e use o f a p o r t f a c i l i t y . However, as R o b e r t L e g v o l d a s k e d , "How does t h e a n a l y s t d e c i d e what n a t i o n B has done o r t h o u g h t d i f f e r e n t l y from what i t would have done o r t h o u g h t b u t f o r something t h a t n a t i o n A d i d o r was?"(12) I m p o r t a n t l y , t h e e x e r c i s i n g o f i n f l u e n c e goes beyond s a y i n g , "A a c t s upon B w i t h outcome C." I n f l u e n c e i s a much more complex and t e m p o r a l p r o c e s s . I t i s a p r o c e s s o v e r t i m e e n t a i l i n g t h e i n t e r a c t i o n o f two o r more e n t i t i e s . B o t h n a t i o n s have i n p u t i n t o t h e outcome; B a c t s upon A and A a c t s upon B. Even though A may be by f a r t h e most p o w e r f u l o f t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s — a c c o r d i n g t o g e n e r a l l y a c c e p t e d s t a n d a r d s — 13 t h e a c t i o n s o f B a r e not w i t h o u t r e l e v a n c e . A may have t h e a p p a r e n t l y s t r o n g e r hand, but B i s never w i t h o u t some i n f l u e n c e . S i n c e A has an i n t e r e s t i n t h e a c t i o n s o f B, B p o s s e s s e s some l e v e r a g e i n i t s d e a l i n g s w i t h A. S i n c e A wants something from B, i t i s i n a sense v u l n e r a b l e t o i n f l u e n c e by B. A l t h o u g h A may not be as open t o r e t r i b u t i o n as B i s , i t can s t i l l s u f f e r by t h e f a i l u r e t o r e a c h i t s o b j e c t i v e . And t h e key t o t h i s o b j e c t i v e i s n a t i o n B. I f B u n d e r s t a n d s i t s r e l a t i v e p o s i t i o n , t h e n i t may be a b l e t o s u c c e s s f u l l y a d m i n i s t e r some i n f l u e n c e o f i t s own. I f A depends upon a p o r t f a c i l i t y w i t h i n B, t h e n B can use t h i s dependence t o i t s advantage. U n l e s s one a c t o r i s c o m p l e t e l y o v e r p o w e r i n g , b o t h p a r t i c i p a n t s w i l l be a c t i v e p l a y e r s i n t h e game o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n f l u e n c e . I n f l u e n c e i s a r e l a t i o n s h i p which f l u c t u a t e s o v e r t i m e and from i s s u e t o i s s u e . One example o f t h e way i n w h i c h i n f l u e n c e between two n a t i o n s can be more dependent upon t h e i s s u e r a t h e r t h a n upon t h e r e l a t i v e s t r e n g t h s o f t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s can be found i n t h e Nye and Keohane a n a l y s i s o f U.S.-Canada r e l a t i o n s . ( 1 3 ) As a r e s u l t o f t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s o f a n a l y s i n g i n f l u e n c e r e l a t i o n s h i p s , arguments must be made c i r c u m s t a n t i a l l y o r by i n f e r e n c e . Our l a c k o f knowledge w i t h r e s p e c t t o p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s and m o t i v e s d i c t a t e s t h a t c o n c l u s i o n s r e g a r d i n g i n f l u e n c e be re a c h e d w i t h o u t a complete u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e s i t u a t i o n . Assumptions must be made. 14 I n most a r e a s o f p o l i t i c a l a n a l y s i s c o n c l u s i o n s a r e u s u a l l y based upon l i m i t e d knowledge — we a r e by no means i n t h e p o s s e s s i o n o f an e x a c t s c i e n c e — so t h e s i t u a t i o n f o r i n t e r - n a t i o n i n f l u e n c e a n a l y s i s i s not un i q u e . The q u e s t i o n i s t h e n whether, and by what means, v a l i d c o n c l u s i o n s can be r e a c h e d . 15 CHAPTER 3 — INDICATORS OP INFLUENCE From my s t u d y and a n a l y s i s o f w r i t i n g s r e l a t e d t o S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n t h e T h i r d World, I have c o n s t r u c t e d a s e t o f seven i n d i c a t o r s o f i n f l u e n c e . These i n d i c a t o r s have been u t i l i z e d i m p l i c i t l y o r e x p l i c i t l y by v a r i o u s a u t h o r s as t h e i r own gauges o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . Each i n d i c a t o r i s e v a l u a t e d as a s o u r c e o f e v i d e n c e o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e upon a T h i r d World n a t i o n . The aim o f t h i s c r i t i q u e i s t o r e v e a l t h e u s e f u l n e s s o f each i n d i c a t o r . R a t h e r t h a n b a s i n g a c o n c l u s i o n r e g a r d i n g S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e upon one o r two i n d i c a t o r s , as a n a l y s t s u s u a l l y do, t h i s seven i n d i c a t o r system can g i v e a more complete a n a l y s i s o f t h e e x t e n t o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . None o f t h e i n d i c a t o r s has been used by e v e r y a n a l y s t s t u d i e d ; and no a u t h o r employed e v e r y s i n g l e one o f t h e i n d i c a t o r s i n t h e e x a m i n a t i o n o f S o v i e t - T h i r d W orld r e l a t i o n s . Some a u t h o r s may have made use o f o n l y a s i n g l e i n d i c a t o r . O nly one a n a l y s t , R u b i n s t e i n , r e f e r r e d t o any o f t h e s e " i n d i c a t o r s " as such. The term " i n d i c a t o r s o f i n f l u e n c e " i s used by me as t h e hea d i n g f o r t h i s c o l l e c t i o n o f i n f l u e n c e c r i t e r i a . S i n c e t h i s s t u d y i s based upon secondary s o u r c e s , i t does no t p r e t e n d t o make a d e f i n i t i v e s t a tement on S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n t h e T h i r d World. T h i s i s p a r t o f an ongoing s e a r c h f o r knowledge. T h e r e f o r e , o t h e r i n d i c a t o r s may be found t h r o u g h 16 f u r t h e r a n a l y s i s o f S o v i e t r e l a t i o n s w i t h T h i r d W o r l d n a t i o n s . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o remember t h a t no v a l u e has been a s s i g n e d t o any i n d i c a t o r beyond i t s g e n e r a l v a l u e as an i n d i c a t o r o f p o s s i b l e i n f l u e n c e . To a r r i v e a t a q u a n t i t a t i v e v a l u e f o r t h e i n d i c a t o r s i s beyond t h e scope o f t h i s e s s a y . The hope i s t h a t t h e c a t e g o r i z a t i o n , c r i t i q u e and use o f t h e i n d i c a t o r s w i l l h e l p t o c l a s s i f y t h e t e rm i n f l u e n c e and a i d i n i t s use w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e a c t i o n s o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . The g o a l i s t o g i v e a more c o n c r e t e meaning t o t h e n o t i o n o f A i n f l u e n c i n g B. T h e r e f o r e , we w i l l have a b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e t e rm " S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . " F u r t h e r , t h e p l a n i s t o c r e a t e a g e n e r a l o u t l i n e f o r e x amining t h i s i n f l u e n c e w h i c h can be a p p l i e d i n a s y s t e m a t i c manner t o s p e c i f i c c a s e s i n v o l v i n g t h e S o v i e t Union and T h i r d World n a t i o n s . What f o l l o w s i s an o u t l i n e and e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e i n d i c a t o r s o f i n f l u e n c e u t i l i z e d i n t h i s a n a l y s i s . F o r each i n d i c a t o r , one q u e s t i o n s h o u l d be k e p t i n mind: I s i n f l u e n c e r e v e a l e d by t h i s i n d i c a t o r ? The indicators are: 1/ Domestic Dissonance 2/ Soviet Acquisition of M i l i t a r y , Naval and A i r F a c i l i t i e s 3/ Soviet Goals and Objectives 4/ Attitudes and Perceptions of B 5/ Trade, Aid and Personnel 17 6 / The T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n 7/ A Vanguard P a r t y 1/ Domestic D i s s o n a n c e The f i r s t i n d i c a t o r of i n f l u e n c e i n v o l v e s d i s r u p t i o n s w i t h i n the domestic p o l i t i c a l system of n a t i o n B which are r e l a t e d t o n a t i o n A. This e n t a i l s the examination of the a t t i t u d e s , i n s t i t u t i o n s and domestic p o l i t i c s of B f o r evidence of the i n f l u e n c e of A. B a s i c a l l y , we are l o o k i n g f o r d i s r u p t i v e a c t i v i t y w i t h i n the domestic p o l i t i c a l sphere t h a t can be l i n k e d t o dealings with the Soviet Union. The term used by R u b i n s t e i n t o describe t h i s k i n d of a c t i v i t y i s "domestic dissonance."(14) The examination of the dissonance can, according t o R u b i n s t e i n , help determine the importance of i s s u e s t o B s i n c e debate and c o n f l i c t w i l l only a r i s e over i s s u e s of importance. I f the i s s u e were unimportant, no one would be concerned. The importance of the issues t o B i s s i g n i f i c a n t f o r determining whether A has i n f l u e n c e w i t h i n B. I f B i s not committed t o the i s s u e , then l i t t l e i n f l u e n c e i s r e q u i r e d f o r A t o convince B t o act as i t wishes. A does not possess s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e over B even i f i t succeeds i n g e t t i n g B t o a c t as i t d e s i r e s , i f the issue i s of l i t t l e importance t o B. Thus, domestic dissonance i n d i c a t e s B's commitment, which i n t u r n 18 i n d i c a t e s a s i t u a t i o n f o r p o s s i b l e i n f l u e n c e by n a t i o n A. An example o f do m e s t i c d i s s o n a n c e i s a h e a t e d d ebate r e g a r d i n g S o v i e t - n a t i o n B r e l a t i o n s w i t h i n t h e government o f B. An extreme i n s t a n c e would be when debate l e a d s t o b l o o d s h e d o r even a coup. The i d e a i s t h a t t h e S o v i e t Union i s a f f e c t i n g t h e d o m e s t i c a c t i v i t y o f B. The S o v i e t U n i o n i s i n d i r e c t l y t h e cause o f a do m e s t i c d i s t u r b a n c e . The i n i t i a l m a n i f e s t a t i o n o f t h i s d i s t u r b a n c e i s v i s i b l e w i t h i n t h e d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c a l sphere a l t h o u g h i t may have f u r t h e r r e p e r c u s s i o n s . Of g r e a t importance f o r t h i s i n d i c a t o r i s t h e p o l i t i c a l power o f B's r u l i n g e l i t e . The e l i t e w i l l u t i l i z e a l l i t s c a p a b i l i t i e s i n o r d e r t o f e n d o f f any t h r e a t s , r e a l o r p e r c e i v e d , t o i t s p o s i t i o n . Domestic d i s s o n a n c e o f t e n m a n i f e s t s i t s e l f i n t h e form o f a power s t r u g g l e between d i f f e r e n t f a c t i o n s w i t h i n t h e government where one o r more f a c t i o n s s u p p o r t a more " p r o - S o v i e t " p o l i c y l i n e . The more p r o - S o v i e t f a c t i o n may p r e s s f o r government a c t i o n s f a v o u r a b l e t o t h e U.S.S.R. which o t h e r members o f t h e r u l i n g e l i t e f e a r w i l l compromise t h e i r power p o s i t i o n . T h i s i n d i c a t o r has a number o f weaknesses. F i r s t , t h e absence o f d o m e s t i c c o n f l i c t c o u l d i n d i c a t e e i t h e r no S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e o r s t r o n g S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . An absence o f d o m e s t i c d i s s o n a n c e can be i n d i c a t i v e o f a l a c k o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e w i t h i n n a t i o n B. However, an absence o f c o n f l i c t can o c c u r i n a s i t u a t i o n when t h e S o v i e t Union does have e x t e n s i v e 19 i n f l u e n c e , f o r example, E a s t European c o u n t r i e s i n t h e 1960s. The g r e a t e r t h e S o v i e t s ' i n f l u e n c e , t h e l e s s l i k e l y i t i s t h e r e w i l l be d i s s o n a n c e because S o v i e t c o n t r o l i s s t r o n g e r . D i s s o n a n c e i n d i c a t e s freedom o f e x p r e s s i o n and a c t i o n w i t h i n B as w e l l as B's commitment t o t h e i s s u e . T h e r e f o r e , a l a c k o f d i s s o n a n c e can i n d i c a t e a l a c k o f freedom o f e x p r e s s i o n w i t h i n B r a t h e r t h a n an absence o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . A t some p o i n t S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e becomes so s t r o n g t h a t d i s s o n a n c e i s e l i m i n a t e d . We would e x p e c t t h e r e t o be l i t t l e d i s s o n a n c e w i t h i n a t r u e S o v i e t s a t e l l i t e . Second, t h e r e i s d i f f i c u l t y i n d e t e r m i n i n g t h e S o v i e t c o n n e c t i o n t o t h e do m e s t i c c o n f l i c t . The S o v i e t s c o u l d be o r c h e s t r a t i n g t h e c o n f l i c t o r me r e l y t a k i n g advantage o f t h e s i t u a t i o n . F u r t h e r m o r e , f o c u s i n g upon t h e c o n f l i c t i t s e l f does n o t c o n s i d e r t h e m o t i v e s o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . A c c o r d i n g t o R u b i n s t e i n , "The i s s u e s s a l i e n t t o A w i l l be even more d i f f i c u l t t o p i n p o i n t , but from t h e d o m e s t i c d ebate i n B on r e l a t i o n s w i t h A, B's i n t e r a c t i o n w i t h A, a knowledge o f A's b r o a d e r o b j e c t i v e s i n t h e r e g i o n , and commentaries i n A, we may g l e a n something o f A's p r e f e r e n c e s . But t h e r e i s no g a i n s a y i n g t h e p a u c i t y o f a u t h o r i t a t i v e d a t a on t h i s f a c e t o f t h e problem."(15) Vanneman and James s t a t e t h a t , "Moscow b e l i e v e s t h a t i n s t a b i l i t y b e n e f i t s i t . " ( 1 6 ) I f we a c c e p t t h a t t h e S o v i e t U n i o n t h r i v e s on chaos, t h e n i t s o b j e c t i v e i n e n c o u r a g i n g d o m e s t i c d i s s o n a n c e i s c l e a r . Y e t , i n s t a b i l i t y i s n o t 20 n e c e s s a r i l y t o t h e advantage o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . Domestic c o n f l i c t has r e s u l t e d i n l o s s e s and r e v e r s a l s f o r t h e S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e p o s i t i o n ; f o r example, N a s s e r ' s crackdowns on l o c a l Communists i n t h e supposed S o v i e t a l l y c o u n t r y o f Egypt and t h e o v e r t h r o w o f S o v i e t s u p p o r t e d l e a d e r s such as A l g e r i a ' s Ahmed Ben B e l l a and Ghana's Nkrumah. T h i r d , t h e e x i s t e n c e o f do m e s t i c c o n f l i c t w i t h i n B o v e r t h e S o v i e t U n i o n does n ot t e l l us what t h e S o v i e t U n i o n has a c c o m p l i s h e d t h r o u g h i t s supposed i n f l u e n c e . The outcome o f t h e c o n f l i c t o v e r t h e S o v i e t r o l e i n n a t i o n B i s a b e t t e r i n d i c a t o r o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e t h a n s i m p l y t h e e x i s t e n c e o f d o m e s t i c d i s s o n a n c e . The outcome i n v o l v e s B's r e s p o n s e t o t h e S o v i e t a c t o f i n f l u e n c e . A l t h o u g h h i s f o c u s i s upon t h e d i s s o n a n c e i t s e l f , R u b i n s t e i n does emphasise t h e e x a m i n a t i o n o f examples o f d o m e s t i c d i s s o n a n c e w h i c h " a r i s e from r e s p o n s e s t h a t a r e made t o A's presumed p r e f e r e n c e s o r from c o n c e s s i o n s t h a t a r e w i d e l y r e g a r d e d as f a v o r i n g A."(17) C o n c e s s i o n s f a v o u r i n g A a r e what need t o e x i s t i n o r d e r f o r s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e t o be p r e s e n t . A good example o f t h e v a l u e o f u s i n g t h e outcome o f d o m e s t i c c o n f l i c t as t h e i n d i c a t o r o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i s South Yemen i n 1978. A c c o r d i n g t o F r a n c i s Fukuyama, " E a s t German and Cuban i n t e l l i g e n c e o p e r a t i v e s and combat t r o o p s p a r t i c i p a t e d i n t h e removal o f P r e s i d e n t S e l i m R u b a i A l i i n June 1978 when he appeared t o o z e a l o u s i n h i s q u e s t f o r d e t e n t e w i t h t h e c o n s e r v a t i v e Arab G u l f s t a t e s . " ( 1 8 ) 21 P r e s i d e n t A l i and t h e S o v i e t Union had s e v e r e l y d i f f e r e n t o b j e c t i v e s w h i c h l e d t o t h e S o v i e t use o f f o r c e t h r o u g h i t s E a s t German and Cuban p r o x i e s . C l e a r l y , t h i s s u c c e s s f u l use o f f o r c e i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e S o v i e t Union had e x t e n s i v e i n f l u e n c e i n South Yemen. P r i o r t o 1977, E t h i o p i a had c l o s e r e l a t i o n s w i t h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and l i t t l e c o n t a c t w i t h t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . I n 1977, C o l o n e l M e n g i s t u was o f f e r e d m i l i t a r y a i d from t h e S o v i e t s on t h e c o n d i t i o n t h a t E t h i o p i a s e v e r i t s m i l i t a r y t i e s w i t h t h e A m e r i c a n s . T h i s p r o p o s a l caused d i s s o n a n c e w i t h i n t h e Dergue, r e s u l t i n g i n b l o o d s h e d i n F e b r u a r y o f t h a t y e a r . T e f e i i B a n t i , an opponent t o t h e S o v i e t m i l i t a r y a i d p l a n , was k i l l e d and M e n g i s t u assumed t h e p o s i t i o n o f Head o f S t a t e . M e n g i s t u p r o m p t l y ended t h e American m i l i t a r y a i d program and o u s t e d t h e U.S. m i l i t a r y p e r s o n n e l from E t h i o p i a . ( 1 9 ) The E t h i o p i a n example has a l l o f t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s f o r t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e d o m e s t i c d i s s o n a n c e i n d i c a t o r o f i n f l u e n c e . There was s i g n i f i c a n t d o m e s t i c c o n f l i c t r e l a t e d t o t h e m i l i t a r y a i d o f f e r from t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . And t h e outcome o f t h e c o n f l i c t f a v o u r e d t h e S o v i e t Union s i n c e i t r e p l a c e d t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s as E t h i o p i a ' s superpower a l l y and arms s u p p l i e r . The S o v i e t Union o f f e r e d , and E t h i o p i a a c c e p t e d , t h e r e w a r d o f m i l i t a r y a i d i n exchange f o r t h e s e v e r i n g o f E t h i o p i a ' s m i l i t a r y t i e s t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . The c o n c l u s i o n c o u l d be t h a t t h e d i s s o n a n c e and f a v o u r a b l e outcome i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e S o v i e t Union had i n f l u e n c e i n E t h i o p i a i n 1977. The d i s s o n a n c e does i n d i c a t e t h e i m p o r t a n c e w i t h i n E t h i o p i a o f t h e S o v i e t m i l i t a r y a i d i s s u e . Y e t , i t seems t h a t M e n g i s t u a c t e d as he d i d i n o r d e r t o s e c u r e h i s power p o s i t i o n and o b t a i n t h e m i l i t a r y a i d t h a t he wanted. He f o u g h t o f f t h e c h a l l e n g e from t h o s e who were a g a i n s t him and h i s o b j e c t i v e s . M e n g i s t u d i d not a c t c o n t r a r y t o h i s own o b j e c t i v e s . The S o v i e t s d i d not g e t him t o do a n y t h i n g he was a g a i n s t . He r e s ponded t o t h e S o v i e t o f f e r as t h e S o v i e t s w i s h e d but r e t a i n e d h i s independence of a c t i o n . The s i t u a t i o n was m u t u a l l y b e n e f i c i a l f o r M e n g i s t u and t h e S o v i e t s . As H o l s t i s t a t e s , "We cannot assume t h a t t h e e x e r c i s e o f i n f l u e n c e i s always a g a i n s t t h e w i s h e s o f o t h e r s and t h a t t h e r e a r e o n l y two p o s s i b l e outcomes o f t h e a c t , one f a v o u r i n g A, t h e o t h e r f a v o u r i n g B."(20) Even though t h e arrangement was m u t u a l l y b e n e f i c i a l and M e n g i s t u was p r o b a b l y p r e d i s p o s e d t o t h e arrangement, t h e S o v i e t Union d i d e x e r c i s e some i n f l u e n c e t h r o u g h i t s o f f e r o f t h e reward of m i l i t a r y a i d . Y e t , because t h e S o v i e t s d i d not i n f l u e n c e M e n g i s t u t o a c t c o n t r a r y t o h i s own w i s h e s , S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e would seem t o have been q u i t e l i m i t e d i n t h i s c a s e . The S o v i e t c o n n e c t i o n t o t h e d i s s o n a n c e i s s t i l l p r o b l e m a t i c when u t i l i s i n g t h e outcome. I t may n o t be known whether, f o r example, a p r o - S o v i e t f o r c e a t t e m p t e d a coup w i t h S o v i e t a i d o r b l e s s i n g . The case s t u d y o f A n g o l a p r o v i d e s an example o f such a s i t u a t i o n . I f a p r o - S o v i e t f o r c e a c t e d i n d e p e n d e n t l y , i t s f a i l u r e does not r e f l e c t a d v e r s e l y upon t h e 23 i n f l u e n c e c a p a b i l i t y o f t h e S o v i e t Union. L i m i t a t i o n s on a v a i l a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n may p r e v e n t us from d e t e r m i n i n g t h e e x t e n t o f S o v i e t i n v o l v e m e n t i n a d o m e s t i c c o n f l i c t w i t h i n B. A l s o , u s i n g t h e outcome o f t h e d i s s o n a n c e as t h e i n d i c a t o r does not d e a l w i t h s i t u a t i o n s where an absence o f c o n f l i c t i n d i c a t e s s t r o n g i n f l u e n c e . S i n c e t h e r e i s no d i s s o n a n c e , t h e r e i s a l s o no outcome t o examine. However, t h e r e s t i l l i s S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . E v a l u a t i o n — F a i r t o Good The e x i s t e n c e o f d o m e s t i c d i s s o n a n c e i n d i c a t e s t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e i s s u e t o B, and, t h e r e f o r e , a s i t u a t i o n f o r p o s s i b l e S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . Y e t , t h e outcome o f any S o v i e t -r e l a t e d d o m e s t i c d i s s o n a n c e i s i m p o r t a n t f o r d e t e r m i n i n g t h e e x i s t e n c e o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n B w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e g i v e n i s s u e . The outcome i s a more v a l u a b l e i n d i c a t o r t h a n t h e d i s s o n a n c e i t s e l f . By f o c u s i n g upon t h e outcome, such as i n t h e South Yemen example, an a n a l y s t can see what t h e S o v i e t U n i o n does o r does not a c c o m p l i s h t h r o u g h i t s a t t e m p t e d i n f l u e n c e . The c o m p a t i b i l i t y o f i n t e r e s t s , and, t h e r e f o r e , o f S o v i e t and n a t i o n B o b j e c t i v e s , needs t o be known i n o r d e r t o d e t e r m i n e t h e e x t e n t o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . The outcome i t s e l f does n o t r e v e a l t h e complete p i c t u r e . I t i s t h e c o n f l i c t between t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e S o v i e t Union and n a t i o n B w h i c h d e t e r m i n e s t h e e x t e n t o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . T h i s c o n f l i c t 24 t e l l s us t o what degree n a t i o n B a c t e d c o n t r a r y t o i t s own o b j e c t i v e s . However, t h e l i m i t e d i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g S o v i e t and n a t i o n B o b j e c t i v e s h i n d e r s t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f t h i s i n d i c a t o r . S i n c e t h e S o v i e t s i n t e n d e d t o a i d t h e o v e r t h r o w o f P r e s i d e n t S e l i m Rubai A l i , and A l i , presumably, d i d n o t want t o be o v e r t h r o w n , t h e i n t e r e s t s o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n and A l i were i n c o m p a t i b l e . T h e r e f o r e , t h e s u c c e s s o f t h i s o p e r a t i o n i n d i c a t e s s i g n i f i c a n t S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n South Yemen i n 1978. However, i n o t h e r l e s s c l e a r c u t c a s e s a s s u m p t i o n s may have t o be made r e g a r d i n g n a t i o n B and S o v i e t o b j e c t i v e s . I f an a c c u r a t e e s t i m a t i o n of t h e S o v i e t and n a t i o n B i n t e r e s t s can be made, a s t r o n g c o n c l u s i o n r e g a r d i n g S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n B can be r e a c h e d u s i n g t h e outcome o f t h e d o m e s t i c d i s s o n a n c e i n d i c a t o r o f i n f l u e n c e . 2/ S o v i e t A c q u i s i t i o n o f M i l i t a r y , N a v a l and A i r F a c i l i t i e s A commonly used i n d i c a t o r o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i s t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f some t y p e o f m i l i t a r y , n a v a l o r a i r f a c i l i t y i n a T h i r d W orld n a t i o n by t h e U.S.S.R. T h i s i n c l u d e s t h e use o f p o r t s f o r m i l i t a r y s h i p s , t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n and use o f l a n d i n g s t r i p s , o v e r f l i g h t r i g h t s and o t h e r v a r i a t i o n s on t h i s t y p e o f f a c i l i t y . The l o g i c o f t h i s i n d i c a t o r i s t h a t t h e S o v i e t e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f r i g h t s t o t h e s e f a c i l i t i e s i n d i c a t e s i n f l u e n c e o v e r n a t i o n B. The outcome o f t h i s i n f l u e n c e i s a 25 c l o s e r c o n n e c t i o n o f n a t i o n B w i t h t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , p h y s i c a l l y and p o l i t i c a l l y , w h i ch, presumably, c r e a t e s t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r f u r t h e r S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . The a c q u i s i t i o n o f a f a c i l i t y by t h e S o v i e t s i s seen t o be a s i g n o f i n f l u e n c e b o t h w i t h i n n a t i o n B and i n a l a r g e r s t r a t e g i c c o n t e x t . The f a c i l i t y e n a b l e s t h e S o v i e t s t o m a i n t a i n a l o c a l p r e s e n c e which, presumably, g i v e s them t h e c a p a c i t y t o i n f l u e n c e not j u s t n a t i o n B, b u t o t h e r n a t i o n s i n t h e r e g i o n . W i t h t h e f a c i l i t y as a base f o r i t s o p e r a t i o n s , t h e S o v i e t s can more e a s i l y p a r t i c i p a t e i n t h e i n t e r n a l w o r k i n g s o f n a t i o n B, and t h r o u g h m i l i t a r y a i d and t r a i n i n g , a t t e m p t t o i n f l u e n c e t h e p o l i t i c a l s i t u a t i o n s i n o t h e r n a t i o n s i n w h i c h t h e y do not have a d i r e c t p r e s e n c e . F o r example, Cuba and N i c a r a g u a have b o t h been viewed by Am e r i c a n p o l i t i c a l f i g u r e s and a n a l y s t s as bases f o r t h e e x p a n s i o n o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . A c c e s s t o f a c i l i t i e s g r e a t l y improved t h e S o v i e t Union's a b i l i t y t o become i n v o l v e d i n t h e a f f a i r s o f T h i r d W o r l d c o u n t r i e s . S o v i e t a c q u i s i t i o n o f bases " p e r m i t t e d more a c t i v e i n t e r v e n t i o n t h a n i n t h e p a s t . A t t h e t i m e o f t h e Suez c r i s i s i n 1956, f o r example, S o v i e t d e f ense m i n i s t e r Zhukov i s s a i d t o have responded t o a demand f o r i n t e r v e n t i o n by P r e s i d e n t Q u w a t l i o f S y r i a by a s k i n g 'How can we go t o t h e a i d o f Egypt? T e l l me! A r e we supposed t o send our ar m i e s t h r o u g h Turkey, I r a n , and t h e n i n t o S y r i a and I r a q and on i n t o I s r a e l and so e v e n t u a l l y a t t a c k t h e B r i t i s h and Fr e n c h f o r c e s ? • " ( 2 1 ) 26 S o v i e t power p r o j e c t i o n c a p a b i l i t y d e v e l o p e d g r e a t l y i n t h e 1970s t h r o u g h a c c e s s t o f a c i l i t i e s i n t h e M a r x i s t - L e n i n i s t r e g i m e s o f t h e P e o p l e ' s Democratic R e p u b l i c o f Yemen, E t h i o p i a , A f g h a n i s t a n , A n g o l a and t e m p o r a r i l y , S o m a l i a . T h i s i n c r e a s e d c a p a b i l i t y can be seen by c o n t r a s t i n g t h e S o v i e t s ' a b i l i t y t o send l a r g e Cuban f o r c e s t o b o t h A n g o l a and E t h i o p i a i n t h e 1970s whereas t h e y f a i l e d i n t h e i r 1960 a t t e m p t t o a i d Lumumba i n t h e Congo.(22) Presumably, t h i s more a c t i v e p a r t i c i p a t i o n g r a n t s t h e S o v i e t Union i n c r e a s e d i n f l u e n c e i n t h e T h i r d World. C e r t a i n l y , t h e i n c r e a s e d power p r o j e c t i o n c a p a b i l i t y p o t e n t i a l l y g i v e s t h e S o v i e t U n i o n more i n f l u e n c e . W i t h o u t t h e a b i l i t y t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n t h e c o m p e t i t i o n f o r i n f l u e n c e , t h e S o v i e t Union cannot g a i n i n f l u e n c e . The q u e s t i o n i s does t h e i n c r e a s e d c a p a b i l i t y g i v e t h e S o v i e t s more i n f l u e n c e , and i f so, how much. A l o n g w i t h t h e t a n g i b l e i n c r e a s e i n S o v i e t power p r o j e c t i o n c a p a b i l i t y , f a c i l i t y a c q u i s i t i o n c r e a t e s t h e p e r c e p t i o n o f t h e S o v i e t Union b e i n g an i m p o r t a n t p l a y e r i n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s t r a t e g i c game o f i n f l u e n c e . The p e r c e p t i o n seems t o be t h a t t h e a c q u i s i t i o n o f a f a c i l i t y i s a s i g n i f i c a n t i n f i l t r a t i o n by t h e S o v i e t s w h i c h c a u s e s a s h i f t i n t h e b a l a n c e o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n f l u e n c e . F a c i l i t i e s a r e vie w e d as i m p o r t a n t p o i n t s o f c o n t r o l whose a c q u i s i t i o n a r e i n f l u e n c e v i c t o r i e s f o r t h e S o v i e t Union. And i n k e e p i n g w i t h zero-sum b a l a n c e o f power t h i n k i n g , a v i c t o r y f o r t h e S o v i e t U n i o n i s a l o s s f o r t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s o r C h i n a . Thus, t h e 27 S o v i e t a c q u i s i t i o n o f f a c i l i t i e s on t h e Horn o f A f r i c a o r i n A n g o l a s h i f t s t h e b a l a n c e o f i n f l u e n c e i n f a v o u r o f t h e U.S.S.R. O f t e n t h e a c q u i s i t i o n o f f a c i l i t i e s by t h e S o v i e t s has come d i r e c t l y a t t h e expense o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , w i t h t h e S o v i e t U n i o n o b t a i n i n g t h e use o f f a c i l i t i e s f o r m e r l y u t i l i z e d by t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . F o r example, E t h i o p i a , an a l l y o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s d u r i n g t h e r u l e o f H a i l e S e l a s s i e , a l l o w e d t h e S o v i e t U n i o n a c c e s s t o E t h i o p i a n p o r t f a c i l i t i e s i n 1977. Thus, t h e p e r c e i v e d i n c r e a s e i n S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i s even more damaging because i t i s c o u p l e d w i t h an a p p a r e n t r e v e r s a l f o r t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . The a c q u i s i t i o n o f f a c i l i t i e s i s seen by a n a l y s t s t o be an i n f i l t r a t i o n o f n a t i o n B by t h e S o v i e t U n i o n w h i c h i n d i c a t e s a l o s s o f s o v e r e i g n t y f o r B. The a s s u m p t i o n i s t h a t t h e a c q u i s i t i o n o f t h e f a c i l i t i e s i s a s t e p i n t h e p r o c e s s o f B f a l l i n g under t h e c o n t r o l o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . I n c o n t r a s t t o a s i t u a t i o n i n which t h e S o v i e t Union i s a t r a d i n g p a r t n e r o r s u p p l i e r o f a i d , t h e a c q u i s i t i o n o f f a c i l i t i e s i s p e r c e i v e d as i n d i c a t i n g a q u a l i t a t i v e change i n t h e S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e c a p a b i l i t y because, presumably, t h e S o v i e t U n i o n has now e s t a b l i s h e d i t s e l f as a p l a y e r i n t h e i n t e r n a l w o r k i n g s o f n a t i o n B. The e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f S o v i e t f a c i l i t i e s w i t h i n B i s t h o u g h t t o be i n d i c a t i v e o f i n c r e a s e d dependence o f n a t i o n B upon t h e S o v i e t s . I t i s a s i g n o f a c l o s e r c o n n e c t i o n between 28 n a t i o n B and t h e S o v i e t Union which would i n t u r n f a c i l i t a t e f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e s i n S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . I t has been t h o u g h t t h a t once t h e S o v i e t s a r e e s t a b l i s h e d w i t h i n a T h i r d W o r l d n a t i o n , i t would be v e r y d i f f i c u l t t o e x t r i c a t e them. Thus, N a t i o n B would n ot be a b l e t o r e g a i n i t s f u l l s o v e r e i g n t y g i v e n t h e c o n t r o l l i n g S o v i e t p r e s e n c e w i t h i n i t . S o v i e t a c c e s s t o f a c i l i t i e s i s o f t e n p e r c e i v e d t o be B's payment f o r S o v i e t a i d o r t r a d e . A c c o r d i n g t o B a r r y Lynch, " . . . c o n t i n u e d S o v i e t economic s u p p o r t i s l i n k e d t o E t h i o p i a ' s a b i l i t y t o o f f e r t h e U.S.S.R. a s t a b l e m i l i t a r y base on t h e Red Sea, i . e . i n E r i t r e a . " ( 2 3 ) Thus, t h e S o v i e t U n i o n o n l y g i v e s E t h i o p i a economic a i d because i t g e t s a m i l i t a r y base i n r e t u r n . The assumption i s t h a t t h e S o v i e t U n i o n would n ot g i v e a i d t o a n a t i o n which c o u l d not s u p p l y i t w i t h a base o r some e q u i v a l e n t b e n e f i t . Thus, w i t h o u t t h e base, t h e a i d would be c u t o f f . C o n v e r s e l y , t h e E t h i o p i a n need f o r a i d caus e s i t t o g i v e up some of i t s s o v e r e i g n t y and a l l o w t h e S o v i e t U n i o n a c c e s s t o a m i l i t a r y base. I t i s assumed t h a t o n l y because o f t h i s dependence upon S o v i e t a i d would E t h i o p i a a l l o w a S o v i e t p r e s e n c e w i t h i n i t . S i n c e t h e a c q u i s i t i o n o f bases appears t o g i v e t h e S o v i e t U n i o n a f o o t h o l d w i t h i n B and o f t e n o c c u r s a t t h e expense o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , i t i s assumed t h a t t h e S o v i e t s have g a i n e d s t r o n g i n f l u e n c e o ver n a t i o n B. T h i s a s s u m p t i o n f a i l s t o c o n s i d e r t h e i n t e r e s t s o f B. I f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n does a c q u i r e f a c i l i t i e s i n exchange f o r a i d , i t i s s t i l l u n c l e a r how t h i s 29 s i t u a t i o n i s i n d i c a t i v e o f s i g n i f i c a n t S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . B does n o t seem t o have a c t e d a g a i n s t i t s own w i s h e s on an i s s u e o f i m p o r t a n c e . I t i s a m u t u a l l y b e n e f i c i a l s i t u a t i o n . A l s o , h a v i n g a S o v i e t base i n n a t i o n B c o u l d be b e n e f i c i a l i n i t s e l f . The S o v i e t p r e s e n c e need not j u s t be a t r a d e o f f f o r some o t h e r b e n e f i t such as economic a i d o r t r a d e . F o r example, t h e S o v i e t s and n a t i o n B may have a common enemy wh i c h c o u l d be b e t t e r combatted t h r o u g h a g r e a t e r S o v i e t p r e s e n c e i n B. Many T h i r d World r e g i m e s , f o r example t h o s e o f E t h i o p i a and A n g o l a , have s u f f e r e d from a t t a c k s by i n t e r n a l o r e x t e r n a l f o e s w h i c h n e c e s s i t a t e s t h e f o r t i f i c a t i o n a f f o r d e d by a S o v i e t p r e s e n c e . The S o v i e t p r e s e n c e c o u l d a l s o be b e n e f i c i a l t h r o u g h t h e t r a i n i n g o f n a t i o n B's armed f o r c e s . I f h a v i n g a S o v i e t base i s m u t u a l l y b e n e f i c i a l , i t p r o b a b l y does n ot o c c u r a g a i n s t t h e w i s h e s o f B. T h e r e f o r e , i t i s n o t i n d i c a t i v e o f s i g n i f i c a n t S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . N a t i o n B a l l o w s t h e S o v i e t s t h e use o f t h e f a c i l i t y f o r B's own b e n e f i t , n o t because o f i n f l u e n c e o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . O b v i o u s l y , t h e r e i s a l i m i t beyond w h i c h n a t i o n B w i l l n o t a l l o w i t s s o v e r e i g n t y t o be c u r t a i l e d . F o r example, t h e S o v i e t s have not o b t a i n e d bases i n t h e " t r a d i t i o n a l sense ( i . e . t e r r i t o r y and/or f a c i l i t i e s o v e r w h i c h i t e x e r c i s e s t r e a t y - b a s e d r i g h t s o f s o v e r e i g n t y ) . " ( 2 4 ) P o s s i b l y , as l o n g as B r e t a i n s t h e t e r r i t o r i a l r i g h t s , i t does n o t c o n s i d e r a l l o w i n g S o v i e t a c c e s s t o f a c i l i t i e s t o be a c a p i t u l a t i o n t o a n o t h e r n a t i o n o r a s u r r e n d e r i n g of i t s s o v e r e i g n t y . T h i s i s 30 an i s s u e about w h i c h T h i r d World n a t i o n s a r e v e r y s e n s i t i v e . Wary o f a p p e a r i n g t o be a s a t e l l i t e o f a n o t h e r n a t i o n , t h e t e r m " f a c i l i t y " i s used by T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s i n s t e a d o f "base" because " i t does not i m p l y s u r r e n d e r o f s o v e r e i g n t y o r smack o f c o l o n i a l r u l e . " ( 2 5 ) F i n a l l y , t h e S o v i e t Union has s u f f e r e d r e v e r s a l s o f i t s r i g h t s t o T h i r d World n a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s . The S o v i e t s have been e a s i l y e x t r i c a t e d from t h e i r p o s i t i o n w i t h i n n a t i o n B — Egypt and S o m a l i a a r e two examples — d e s p i t e t h e appearance o f a l o n g - t e r m r e l a t i o n s h i p . T h i s f r a g i l i t y o f t h e S o v i e t p o s i t i o n f u r t h e r weakens t h e v a l u e o f t h e A c q u i s i t i o n o f F a c i l i t i e s as an i n d i c a t o r o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . E v a l u a t i o n — Poor S o v i e t a c q u i s i t i o n o f f a c i l i t i e s i n a T h i r d W orld n a t i o n has u n d e n i a b l e b e n e f i t s t o t h e S o v i e t s f o r e s t a b l i s h i n g a p r e s e n c e i n t h e T h i r d World, enhancing i t s power p r o j e c t i o n c a p a b i l i t y , and d e v e l o p i n g i t s r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h n a t i o n B. F a c i l i t i e s have been p a r t i c u l a r l y v a l u a b l e t o t h e S o v i e t s f o r e s t a b l i s h i n g i n f l u e n c e w i t h i n r e g i o n s o f t h e T h i r d World. For example, bases i n Vietnam and E t h i o p i a were i m p o r t a n t t o t h e S o v i e t U n i o n f o r e s t a b l i s h i n g i n f l u e n c e i n S o u t h - e a s t A s i a and t h e Horn o f A f r i c a . Y e t , t h e a c q u i s i t i o n o f t h e f a c i l i t i e s i n d i c a t e s a t most o n l y l i m i t e d S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e w i t h i n B. The b e n e f i t s e n j o y e d by B due t o t h e S o v i e t p r e s e n c e , t h e l i m i t t o w h i c h B w i l l a l l o w i t s s o v e r e i g n t y t o be u s u r p e d , and t h e 31 speed and ease w i t h which t h e S o v i e t U nion can l o s e t h e r i g h t s t o t h e f a c i l i t i e s show t h e weakness of t h i s i n d i c a t o r o f i n f l u e n c e . As a r e s u l t , we cannot c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e S o v i e t s have s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e i f t h e y a c q u i r e t h e use o f f a c i l i t i e s w i t h i n B. 3/ Soviet Goals and Objectives So f a r , t h e i n d i c a t o r s have f o c u s e d upon t h e i n f l u e n c e r e l a t i o n s h i p from t h e p e r s p e c t i v e o f n a t i o n B — d o m e s t i c d i s s o n a n c e w i t h i n B and f a c i l i t i e s w i t h i n B. A d i f f e r e n t v i e w p o i n t can be c o n s i d e r e d t h r o u g h e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e S o v i e t Union. The i n d i c a t o r o f i n f l u e n c e i s t h e n t h e amount of s u c c e s s t h e S o v i e t s have i n a c h i e v i n g t h e i r g o a l s ; i n o t h e r words, t h e i r s u c c e s s i n w i e l d i n g i n f l u e n c e t o f u r t h e r t h e i r s p e c i f i c o b j e c t i v e s . The a s s u m p t i o n o f t h i s i n d i c a t o r i s t h a t a c h i e v i n g g o a l s i n d i c a t e s i n f l u e n c e . We can see t h a t i n f l u e n c e i s c l o s e l y l i n k e d t o p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s . A t r i e s t o g e t B t o f a l l i n l i n e w i t h i t s o b j e c t i v e s ; s u c c e s s i n d o i n g so presumably i n d i c a t e s i n f l u e n c e on t h e p a r t o f A. T h e r e f o r e , a g r e a t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e r e q u i r e s a knowledge o f S o v i e t g o a l s as t h e y p e r t a i n t o n a t i o n B. F o r e i g n p o l i c y a n a l y s i s o f any n a t i o n can be an arduous 32 endeavour, but a n a t i o n whose i n n e r governmental workings have been as s h i e l d e d from o u t s i d e s c r u t i n y as t h a t of the S o v i e t Union c o m p l i c a t e s matters v a s t l y . There i s much t h a t we j u s t do not know. As a r e s u l t , assumptions are made. Oft e n these assumptions are based upon the a n a l y s t 1 s p r e s e t n o t i o n s r e g a r d i n g the S o v i e t Union. For example, a n a l y s t s o f t e n assume e i t h e r t h a t the S o v i e t Union i s o p p o r t u n i s t i c or t h a t i t f o l l o w s a grand s t r a t e g y . An a n a l y s t w i l l , t h e r e f o r e , f o r m u l a t e d i f f e r e n t c o n c l u s i o n s r e g a r d i n g S o v i e t o b j e c t i v e s based upon h i s or her p r e s e t n o t i o n s . As a r e s u l t , each a n a l y s i s may t e l l us more about the author than about S o v i e t f o r e i g n p o l i c y . Robert Gorman s t a t e s t h a t d u r i n g the 1970s two b a s i c s c h o o l s o f thought emerged from Western debate on S o v i e t i n t e r v e n t i o n i s m i n A f r i c a , the " A f r i c a n s o l u t i o n s t o A f r i c a n problems s c h o o l " and the "superpower r e s p o n s i b i l i t y s c h o o l . " ( 2 6) I n d i v i d u a l s belonging t o the A f r i c a n s o l u t i o n s s c h o o l g e n e r a l l y share s e v e r a l b a s i c assumptions and a t t i t u d e s . They tend t o downplay the s i g n i f i c a n c e of S o v i e t i n t e r v e n t i o n on the Horn (and elsewhere i n A f r i c a ) , c a l l i n g i t a form of opportunism unconnected w i t h any l a r g e r S o v i e t grand d e s i g n t o outmaneuver the West i n A f r i c a . . . [while the superpower r e s p o n s i b i l i t y school] i s alarmed by S o v i e t m i l i t a r y successes i n A f r i c a . A n a l y s t s i n t h i s s c h o o l are more i n c l i n e d t o i n t e r p r e t r e c e n t S o v i e t a c t i v i t i e s i n A f r i c a as p a r t of a l a r g e r s t r a t e g i c d e s i g n . They s t r e s s the S o v i e t Union's r e s i l i e n c e t o i t s e a r l i e r setbacks and assume t h a t i t has l e a r n e d from those unpleasant experiences(27) I t i s my assumption t h a t the S o v i e t Union i s not an 33 adherent t o a grand s t r a t e g y . Post-World War I I S o v i e t f o r e i g n p o l i c y i n the T h i r d World has l a r g e l y c o n s i s t e d of c h a l l e n g e s t o the s t a t u s quo. Except d u r i n g S t a l i n ' s r u l e , the S o v i e t Union has viewed the T h i r d World as an area f o r the p u r s u i t of i n f l u e n c e l a r g e l y through the support of the " p r o g r e s s i v e f o r c e s " i n t h e i r c h a l l e n g e s t o the " s t a t u s quo backed by the U n i t e d States."(28) Examples of t h i s s t r a t e g y i n c l u d e the Korean and Vietnam wars as w e l l as the c o n f l i c t s over the Suez i n 1956, the Cuban R e v o l u t i o n , A l g e r i a i n the e a r l y 1960s, Angola i n 1975 and the Horn of A f r i c a i n 1977-1978. As F r a n c i s Fukuyama puts i t , " S o v i e t f o r e i g n p o l i c y i n the T h i r d World was c h i e f l y concerned w i t h how b e s t t o b r i n g about r e v o l u t i o n a r y changes i n the s t a t u s quo, i n ways t h a t both were e f f e c t i v e and d i d not unduly damage the i n t e r e s t s of the USSR as a state."(29) S t a l i n made l i t t l e e f f o r t t o develop S o v i e t r e l a t i o n s w i t h the noncommunist l e a d e r s of the newly independent c o u n t r i e s of the T h i r d World. As a r e s u l t , the S o v i e t Union made few advances i n the T h i r d World d u r i n g the S t a l i n e r a . A c c o r d i n g t o Nogee and Donaldson: S t a l i n ' s d i s a s t r o u s experience i n a p p l y i n g the u n i t e d f r o n t s t r a t e g y d u r i n g the Chinese r e v o l u t i o n of the 1920s had a l a s t i n g e f f e c t on S o v i e t p e r c e p t i o n s . Chiang Kai-shek manipulated S o v i e t and Comintern support of the Kuomintang t o d e f e a t the Chinese communists. Unaccustomed t o being used t o s e r v e the purpose of others, S t a l i n a p p a r e n t l y vowed never again t o a s s i s t A s i a n n a t i o n a l i s t l e a d e r s who were not under h i s d i r e c t c o n t r o l . ( 3 0 ) Khrushchev, on the other hand, was c o n f i d e n t 34 t h a t a i d from t h e s o c i a l i s t b l o c c o u l d a l l o w t h e T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s t o break away from t h e i m p e r i a l i s t economic g r i p and l a u n c h t h e i r p l a n s f o r i n d u s t r i a l i z e d and t r u l y independent n a t i o n a l economies. The i n e v i t a b l e r e s u l t o f t h i s p r o c e s s would be t h e emergence of a c l a s s - c o n s c i o u s p r o l e t a r i a t r e a d y t o respond t o t h e p o l i t i c a l program of i t s vanguard and — once t h e ' n a t i o n a l b o u r g e o i s i e ' had r e v e a l e d t h e compromising s i d e o f i t s d u a l n a t u r e — t o assume p o l i t i c a l power, even by p e a c e f u l means.(31) However, S o v i e t s u c c e s s e s were not n e a r l y as g r e a t as K hrushchev had hoped. A l t h o u g h t h e n a t i o n a l i s t i c l e a d e r s o f t h e T h i r d World were i n f l u e n c e d by M a r x i s t t h o u g h t , t h e y were u s u a l l y u n w i l l i n g t o a c c e p t t h e S o v i e t model and a pproach. A l s o , t h e f r a g i l i t y o f T h i r d World regimes meant t h a t a p p a r e n t S o v i e t advances were sometimes s h o r t - l i v e d . F o r example, t h e S o v i e t s s u f f e r e d t h r e e q u i c k r e v e r s a l s w i t h t h e f a l l o f I n d o n e s i a ' s Sukarno i n 1965, Ghana's Nkrumah i n 1966, and M a l i ' s K e i t a i n 1968. As t h e r e a l i t i e s o f t h e T h i r d W orld became e v i d e n t t o t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , Khrushchev's o p t i m i s m f o r t h e s u c c e s s o f S o v i e t s o c i a l i s m i n t h e T h i r d W orld gave way t o t h e Brezhnev regime's more p r a g m a t i c approach and r e s e r v e d e x p e c t a t i o n s . B o t h Khrushchev and Brezhnev pursued a s i m i l a r p o l i c y o f accommodation w i t h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s combined w i t h an o f t e n s e e m i n g l y c o n t r a d i c t o r y s t r a t e g y o f c h a l l e n g i n g t h e s t a t u s quo. Thus, w h i l e p u r s u i n g d e t e n t e w i t h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , t h e S o v i e t s c o n t i n u e d t o s t r i v e f o r advances i n t h e T h i r d World. Khrushchev and Brezhnev d i d not want a war w i t h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , e s p e c i a l l y g i v e n t h e d e v a s t a t i o n o f n u c l e a r weapons, 35 b u t t h e y were a l s o n o t w i l l i n g t o a c c e p t t h e s t a t u s quo. As Fukuyama s t a t e s : W h i l e S o v i e t spokesmen began t a l k i n g t o Western a u d i e n c e s about t h e need f o r mutual superpower r e s t r a i n t i n l o c a l c o n f l i c t s , however, t o t h e i r own i d e o l o g i c a l s y m p a t h i z e r s t h e y emphasized t h a t d e t e n t e between t h e superpowers on a s t a t e - t o - s t a t e l e v e l d i d n o t mean an end t o t h e s t r u g g l e f o r n a t i o n a l l i b e r a t i o n o r s o c i a l change. And i n d e e d , S o v i e t b e h a v i o u r i n t h e T h i r d World became i f a n y t h i n g more a c t i v i s t w i t h t h e coming o f d e t e n t e . ( 3 2 ) G i v e n S o v i e t c h a l l e n g e s t o t h e s t a t u s quo, t h e q u e s t i o n i s whether t h e S o v i e t Union had s p e c i f i c g o a l s . Some a n a l y s t s have a t t e m p t e d t o c a t e g o r i z e t h e g o a l s o f t h e U.S.S.R. i n A f r i c a . R o b e r t Grey d i v i d e d t h e p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n s o f S o v i e t g o a l s i n t o f o u r c a t e g o r i e s : (1) g e o p o l i t i c a l , (2) p o l i t i c a l , (3) i d e o l o g i c a l , and (4) economic. The g e o p o l i t i c a l g o a l i s " t o i n c r e a s e t h e s t r e n g t h o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n and i t s a l l i e s , w h i l e weakening b o t h t h e N.A.T.O. a l l i a n c e and C h i n a . " The s t r a t e g i c v a l u e o f o i l i s i m p o r t a n t f o r t h i s c a t e g o r y . The p o l i t i c a l e x p l a n a t i o n h o l d s t h a t t h e S o v i e t U n i o n seeks t o make f r i e n d s and a l l i e s and undermine A f r i c a n t i e s w i t h t h e West and C h i n a . I n s h a r p c o n t r a s t t o t h e o t h e r g o a l c a t e g o r i e s , t h e i d e o l o g y - b a s e d v i e w s t a t e s t h a t t h e S o v i e t s ' t o p p r i o r i t y i s t h e s u p p o r t o f s t a t e s o f s o c i a l i s t o r i e n t a t i o n . The economic c a t e g o r y has t h e S o v i e t e x p l o i t a t i o n o f A f r i c a ' s w e a l t h as i t s b a s i s . ( 3 3 ) B e f o r e c o n c l u d i n g t h a t t h e i d e o l o g i c a l argument i s t h e c l o s e s t t o t h e t r u t h , Grey s t a t e s , " I would go a f u r t h e r s t e p 36 and assume a l a c k o f u n a n i m i t y even about g o a l s . Thus, t o pose t h e q u e s t i o n , what does t h e U.S.S.R. want o f A f r i c a ? i s t o ask what p e r s p e c t i v e s do v a r i o u s i n d i v i d u a l s , g r o u p s , o r i n s t i t u t i o n s have i n o r about A f r i c a ? " ( 3 4 ) T h i s a s s u m p t i o n o f a l a c k o f u n a n i m i t y o f g o a l s i l l u s t r a t e s t h e pr o b l e m o f our l a c k o f knowledge o f t h e i n t e r n a l w o r k i n g s o f t h e S o v i e t government. We can assume a l a c k o f u n a n i m i t y , b u t we cannot be s u r e o f such a s i t u a t i o n . D a v i d A l b r i g h t f o r m u l a t e d a l i s t o f f o u r d i s t i n c t g o a l s w h i c h he contends t h e S o v i e t s have pursued i n A f r i c a w i t h some c o n s i s t e n c y . They a r e : (1) t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f b a s e s , (2) t h e development o f a v o i c e i n A f r i c a , (3) u n d e r m i n i n g t h e West, and (4) c o u n t e r a c t i n g C h i n a . F i r s t , f o r t h e b a s e s , " t h e U.S.S.R. has sought forms o f l o c a l s u p p o r t t h a t would ease t h e l o g i s t i c a l problems o f m a i n t a i n i n g i t s n a v a l f o r c e s i n w a t e r s s u r r o u n d i n g A f r i c a . " The S o v i e t Union "has r e q u e s t e d and r e c e i v e d p e r m i s s i o n f o r i t s v e s s e l s t o make c a l l s a t a v a r i e t y o f p o r t s i n l i t t o r a l w a t e r s . 1 1 (35) Second, t h e S o v i e t Union has t r i e d t o e s t a b l i s h a p r e s e n c e i n A f r i c a n a f f a i r s , l a r g e l y t h r o u g h m i l i t a r y a i d . T h i r d , t h e S o v i e t s have endeavoured t o u n d e r c u t Western i n f l u e n c e i n A f r i c a . "At t h e same t i m e , t h e U.S.S.R. has c l e a r l y maneuvered t o e s t a b l i s h i t s e l f as s o l e m i l i t a r y s u p p l i e r and/or p o l i t i c a l p a t r o n o f a number o f A f r i c a n s t a t e s w h i c h f o r m e r l y l o o k e d f u n d a m e n t a l l y t o t h e West f o r s u p p o r t . " The S o v i e t s u p p o r t o f t h e M.P.L.A. i n 1975-1976 can even be 37 seen as p a r t o f t h e scheme t o undermine Western i n f l u e n c e s i n c e "Moscow o b v i o u s l y d i d not want t o see t h e P o r t u g u e s e c o l o n i a l regime t h e r e g i v e way t o a government composed o f f o r c e s backed by t h e West i n g e n e r a l and by t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i n p a r t i c u l a r . " ( 3 6 ) F o u r t h , t h e S o v i e t s have t r i e d t o p r e v e n t C h i n a from making i n r o a d s i n A f r i c a . F o r example, t h e S o v i e t U nion c o u n t e r e d a 1975 $17 m i l l i o n l o a n by C h i n a t o G u i n e a - B i s s a u w i t h an o f f e r o f $13 m i l l i o n i n c r e d i t s . T h i s exceeded t h e o f f e r t o A n g ola which was supposed t o be a c l o s e a l l y and has a p o p u l a t i o n t e n t i m e s t h a t o f G u i n e a -B i s s a u . (37) And a c c o r d i n g t o A l b r i g h t , t h e i n i t i a l r e a s o n f o r t h e S o v i e t s u p p o r t of t h e M.P.L.A. i n 1975 was t o e n s u r e t h a t C h i n a d i d not become t h e dominant f o r e i g n power i n t h a t p a r t o f A f r i c a . ( 3 8 ) I f t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f A and B a r e known, an a c c u r a t e e s t i m a t i o n o f whether i n f l u e n c e has been e x e r c i s e d by A can be made. When A a c h i e v e s i t s g o a l s and B a c t s c o n t r a r y t o i t s own, t h e n A has s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e o v er B. Thus, o s t e n s i b l y t h i s i s t h e b e s t i n d i c a t o r o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . The p r o blem i s t h a t t h e p o l i c y o b j e c t i v e s o f A a r e d i f f i c u l t t o d e t e r m i n e . Furthermore, l i t t l e c o n c e r n i s u s u a l l y g i v e n t o t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f B; t h e assumption i s t h a t S o v i e t s u c c e s s i n t h e p u r s u i t o f i t s g o a l s n e c e s s a r i l y i n d i c a t e s S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e upon n a t i o n B. T h i s assumption f a i l s t o c o n s i d e r t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f A and B h a v i n g mutual i n t e r e s t s o r B h a v i n g l i t t l e commitment t o t h e i s s u e a r e a . 38 E v a l u a t i o n — F a i r t o Good Through i t s o p p o r t u n i s t i c c h a l l e n g e s t o t h e s t a t u s quo, t h e S o v i e t Union has c e r t a i n l y had s u c c e s s e s i n t h e T h i r d W o r l d . S t a r t i n g w i t h e s s e n t i a l l y no p r e s e n c e i n t h e T h i r d W o rld i n 1955, t h e S o v i e t Union has a c h i e v e d a l l i a n c e s w i t h t h e l o n g - s t a n d i n g M a r x i s t - L e n i n i s t s t a t e s o f N o r t h K o r e a , V i e t n a m , and Cuba, as w e l l as a l l i a n c e s w i t h t h e numerous newer M a r x i s t - L e n i n i s t s t a t e s , such as A n g o l a , Mozambique, E t h i o p i a , t h e P e o p l e ' s Democratic R e p u b l i c o f Yemen, N i c a r a g u a , and Laos. And t o v a r y i n g d e g r e e s , t h e S o v i e t U n i o n has a c h i e v e d a p r e s e n c e i n n o n - M a r x i s t T h i r d W orld n a t i o n s s u ch as Egypt and S y r i a . The q u e s t i o n i s t o what degree t h i s i n c r e a s e d p r e s e n c e t r a n s l a t e s i n t o S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . I f o n l y t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n a r e c o n s i d e r e d , t h i s i n d i c a t o r i s o f l i m i t e d v a l u e f o r e v a l u a t i n g S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e upon B. S o v i e t g o a l achievement does n o t t r a n s l a t e d i r e c t l y i n t o i n f l u e n c e w i t h i n B. We need t o know not j u s t what t h e S o v i e t s a c c o m p l i s h but under what c i r c u m s t a n c e s . Knowledge of B's o b j e c t i v e s i s n e c e s s a r y i n o r d e r t o r e v e a l whether t h e S o v i e t s i n f l u e n c e d B-i.to a c t c o n t r a r y t o B's own w i s h e s . Thus, t h i s can be a v e r y good i n d i c a t o r . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , d e t e r m i n i n g t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f b o t h t h e S o v i e t Union and B i s o f t e n h i n d e r e d by a l a c k o f i n f o r m a t i o n . T h e r e f o r e , t h e v a l u e o f t h i s i n d i c a t o r i s l e s s e n e d because assumptions must be made r e g a r d i n g t h e n a t i o n s ' o b j e c t i v e s . 39 4/ A t t i t u d e s and P e r c e p t i o n s The i n d i c a t o r o f A t t i t u d e s and P e r c e p t i o n s o u t l i n e d by A l v i n R u b i n s t e i n encompasses v a r i o u s elements t h a t a number o f a u t h o r s have u t i l i s e d . I t f o c u s e s upon p e r c e p t u a l and a t t i t u d i n a l change w i t h i n B e v i d e n t t h r o u g h t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h e media, j o i n t communiques, o f f i c i a l speeches and s t a t e m e n t s , and p u b l i c o p i n i o n s u r v e y s . The t h e o r y i s t h a t " s i g n i f i c a n t changes i n a t t i t u d e (as e x p r e s s e d i n one o r more of t h e above s u b c a t e g o r i e s ) have p o l i c y r e l e v a n c e f o r t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between A and B, and t h a t , used w i s e l y , t h e y can p r o v i d e i n s i g h t s i n t o t h e s t r e n g t h s and d i f f i c u l t i e s i n h e r i n g i n t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p . 1 1 (39) A c c o r d i n g t o R u b i n s t e i n , t h e l e a s t u s e f u l measure i s " p u b l i c o p i n i o n p o l l s , w hich measure A's p r e s t i g e , n o t i t s i n f l u e n c e ; t h e y t e l l us about t h e g e n e r a l image o f A h e l d by r e p r e s e n t a t i v e but u n a u t h o r i t a t i v e groups i n B who a r e o r d i n a r i l y n o t i n a p o s i t i o n t o know much about t h e A-B r e l a t i o n s h i p . " ( 4 0 ) He f e e l s t h e most u s e f u l measures a r e j o i n t communiques over a p e r i o d o f t i m e and e d i t o r i a l s i n g o v e r n m e n t - c o n t r o l l e d media. The communiques and e d i t o r i a l s r e v e a l t h e a t t i t u d e s and p e r c e p t i o n s o f t h e government l e a d e r s who s e t p o l i c y . F o r example, a c c o r d i n g t o Nogee and Donaldson, problems between Egypt and t h e S o v i e t U n i o n were s i g n a l l e d by t h e communique i s s u e d a f t e r Anwar S a d a t ' s 1971 v i s i t t o Moscow, wh i c h d e s c r i b e d t h e t a l k s between t h e two 40 n a t i o n s as h a v i n g t a k e n p l a c e i n a " s p i r i t o f f r a n k n e s s . " ( 4 1 ) A c t i o n s by B which c o n t r a d i c t i t s e a r l i e r s t a t e m e n t s i n communiques and e d i t o r i a l s a r e a good s i g n o f p o s s i b l e S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . For example, B might s t a t e t h a t i t would n o t a l l o w S o v i e t bases but l a t e r a l l o w them. An a n a l y s t c o u l d examine whether t h e change i n B's b e h a v i o u r — a l l o w i n g t h e bases — i s p r e c e d e d by changes i n B's a t t i t u d e e v i d e n t i n e d i t o r i a l s and communiques. I f so, t h i s i n d i c a t o r c o u l d have v a l u e f o r p r e d i c t i n g S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e d a c t i o n s by B. T h i s i n d i c a t o r c o u l d be u t i l i s e d by e x a m i n i n g e d i t o r i a l s , communiques, e t c e t e r a , i n n a t i o n s who were i n i t i a l l y f r i e n d l y w i t h t h e S o v i e t Union but l a t e r s u f f e r e d a f r a c t u r i n g o f r e l a t i o n s . O b v i o u s l y , t h i s s p l i t i n d i c a t e s an end t o any S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n n a t i o n B. A good case s t u d y would be Egypt, from w h i c h t h e S o v i e t s were o u s t e d a f t e r t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f what was thought t o be a l o n g - t e r m , i n d e p t h r e l a t i o n s h i p . Some q u e s t i o n s t o be c o n s i d e r e d : What changes i n t h e t r e a t m e n t o f t h e S o v i e t s i n t h e e d i t o r i a l s and communiques o c c u r r e d p r i o r t o t h e s p l i t ? C o u l d t h e s p l i t be f o r e s e e n t h r o u g h t h e e x a m i n a t i o n of t h e e d i t o r i a l s and communiques? E v a l u a t i o n — V e r y Good T h i s i s a v e r y good i n d i c a t o r . I t i s v a l u a b l e because i t e n t a i l s a more c a u s a l a n a l y s i s t h a n most o f t h e o t h e r i n d i c a t o r s . R a t h e r t h a n f o c u s i n g upon t h e s u p e r f i c i a l 41 appearances o f a p parent S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e , i t c o n s i d e r s t h e r o o t s o f t h e S o v i e t - n a t i o n B r e l a t i o n s h i p — t h e a t t i t u d e s and p e r c e p t i o n s t h a t m o t i v a t e a c t i o n s , and t h e c o n f l i c t between t h e a c t i o n s and a t t i t u d e s . T h i s i n d i c a t o r a t t e m p t s t o d e a l w i t h t h e i n n e r w o r k i n g s o f t h e i n t e r - n a t i o n r e l a t i o n s h i p . I t i s w i t h i n B where we can d i s c o v e r t h e commitment o f B t o an i s s u e and whether i t a c t s c o n t r a r y t o i t s own o b j e c t i v e s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e l a c k o f n e c e s s a r y i n f o r m a t i o n p l a c e s t h i s k i n d o f a n a l y s i s beyond t h e scope of t h i s p aper. Thus, t h i s i n d i c a t o r has not been u t i l i z e d i n my c a s e s t u d i e s o f S o m a l i a and A n g o l a . 5/ Q u a n t i t a t i v e Measures o f Trade, A i d and P e r s o n n e l Q u a n t i t a t i v e Measures of Trade, A i d and P e r s o n n e l i s p r o b a b l y t h e most commonly c i t e d i n d i c a t o r o f S o v i e t p e n e t r a t i o n and i n f l u e n c e . S p e c i f i c a l l y , t h i s i n d i c a t o r i n c l u d e s : t h e number o f S o v i e t and Cuban p e r s o n n e l i n n a t i o n B; t h e q u a n t i t y o f t r a d e between t h e S o v i e t s and B; t h e q u a n t i t y o f arms t r a n s f e r s from t h e S o v i e t s t o B; t h e q u a n t i t y o f m i l i t a r y and economic a i d t h e U.S.S.R. d i s t r i b u t e s t o B; and t h e number of s t u d e n t s from B s t u d y i n g i n t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . There a r e o t h e r examples, but t h e s e a r e t h e main ones. A l t h o u g h t h i s i n d i c a t o r encompasses a wide v a r i e t y o f elements o f an i n t e r - n a t i o n r e l a t i o n s h i p , I have d i v i d e d them i n t o f o u r 42 b a s i c c a t e g o r i e s — (1) p e r s o n n e l , S o v i e t o r n a t i o n B; (2) economic a i d ; (3) m i l i t a r y a i d ; and (4) t r a d e . F o r t h e a n a l y s t s who s t r e s s t h i s i n d i c a t o r , t h e i n f l u e n c e i n c r e a s e s as t h e amount of t r a d e , a i d o r p e r s o n n e l i n c r e a s e s . F o r example, t h e g r e a t e r t h e t r a d e between B and t h e S o v i e t s , t h e g r e a t e r t h e S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . The l o g i c i s t h a t an i n c r e a s e i n t h e t r a d e between B and t h e U.S.S.R. n e c e s s a r i l y means an i n c r e a s e i n t h e i n f l u e n c e o f t h e S o v i e t s w i t h r e s p e c t t o B. I m p l i c i t i n t h i s a n a l y s i s i s t h a t i n c r e a s e d t r a d e s i g n a l s a c l o s e r r e l a t i o n s h i p w hich i n t u r n l e n d s i t s e l f t o g r e a t e r S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . Thus, B i s drawn i n t o t h e S o v i e t s p h e r e o f i n f l u e n c e . The l o g i c f o l l o w s s i m i l a r l y f o r t h e o t h e r t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s . P h i l i p Roeder d e s c r i b e s a more e l a b o r a t e s c e n a r i o o f i n c r e a s e d a i d and t r a d e w i t h t h e S o v i e t Union i n t h e t h e o r y o f S o v i e t - c e n t e r e d dependence. The t h e o r y " l i n k s i n c r e a s e s i n S o v i e t a i d t o growing t r a d e dependence on t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , w h i c h i n t u r n i n c r e a s e s t h e p o l i t i c a l c o m p l i a n c e o f T h i r d W o r l d r e c i p i e n t s w i t h S o v i e t p o l i c i e s . " ( 4 2 ) The t r a d e dependence means b o t h i n c r e a s e d t r a d e w i t h t h e S o v i e t Union and d e c r e a s e d t r a d e w i t h t h e West. The t h e o r y h o l d s t h a t "by e x p a n d i n g t h e volume o f S o v i e t t r a d e , by c l o s i n g o f f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e o f t r a d e w i t h t h e West, and, t h u s , by i n c r e a s i n g t h e c o s t s o f any f u t u r e c u t - o f f o f S o v i e t t r a d e , S o v i e t a i d l e a d s t o s i g n i f i c a n t t r a d e dependence on t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . 1 1 (43) The c o n c l u s i o n , s i m p l y , i s t h a t i n c r e a s e d 43 S o v i e t a i d l e a d s t o i n c r e a s e d t r a d e w i t h t h e S o v i e t s w h i c h l e a d s t o t r a d e dependence. T h i s dependence t h e n l e a d s t o p o l i t i c a l c o m p l i a n c e by B. W h i l e t h e r e a r e some s i g n i f i c a n t d i s s i m i l a r i t i e s between t h e f o u r c a t e g o r i e s o f t h i s i n d i c a t o r — f o r example, t h e f a r g r e a t e r s i g n i f i c a n c e o f arms t r a n s f e r s compared t o s t u d e n t s s t u d y i n g i n t h e U.S.S.R. — t h e p o i n t o f g r o u p i n g t h e s e s e e m i n g l y d i s p a r a t e e n t i t i e s t o g e t h e r i s t h a t t h e r e e x i s t s a commonly h e l d assumption t h a t an i n c r e a s e i n t h e amount o f t r a d e , a i d o r p e r s o n n e l n e c e s s a r i l y p o r t e n d s a growth i n S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . I t i s t h i s t endency t o base a judgement r e g a r d i n g i n f l u e n c e upon q u a n t i t y w h i c h t i e s t o g e t h e r t h e s e a s s o r t e d s u b j e c t s i n t o one c a t e g o r y , as one i n d i c a t o r o f i n f l u e n c e . The Q u a n t i t a t i v e Measures o f Trade, A i d and P e r s o n n e l i n d i c a t o r has a number o f weaknesses. F i r s t , i t m i n i m i s e s b o t h t h e independence of B and t h e b e n e f i t s e n j o y e d by B t h r o u g h i t s r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h A. A i d and t r a d e a r e n o t t h i n g s w h i c h B i s a d v e r s e t o . On t h e c o n t r a r y , i t can be assumed t h a t B i s i n f a v o u r o f them. E x c e p t i n c a s e s o f c o m p l e t e S o v i e t d o m i n a t i o n , such as E a s t European c o u n t r i e s i n t h e 1960s, i t seems u n l i k e l y t h a t B would be f o r c e d a g a i n s t i t s w i l l i n t o a t r a d e o r a i d r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h A. Second, a i d o r t r a d e dependence by B i s n e i t h e r r e a l i s t i c n o r d e s i r e d by t h e S o v i e t Unipn. The S o v i e t U n i o n cannot a f f o r d t o s u p p o r t a n o t h e r Cuba; nor has i t appeared t o want 44 t o . The $6 m i l l i o n - a - d a y S o v i e t s u b s i d y o f t h e Cuban economy i s an anomaly of S o v i e t - T h i r d World r e l a t i o n s . ( 4 4 ) D e s p i t e i t s c l o s e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h t h e U.S.S.R. a f t e r 1976, E t h i o p i a was o n l y g i v e n o b s e r v e r s t a t u s t o t h e C.M.E.A. A c c o r d i n g t o H e r b e r t B l o c k : t h e C.M.E.A. a l r e a d y has s e v e r a l a i l i n g members, and i s n o t eager t o become a n u r s i n g home f o r t h e c h r o n i c a l l y i l l . . . T h e S o v i e t c l i e n t s , h a v i n g l i t t l e t o o f f e r t h a t i n t e r e s t s Moscow, have i m p o r t s u r p l u s e s w i t h t h e U.S.S.R., a s i t u a t i o n t h a t does no t p l e a s e t h e S o v i e t s who a r e i n t e r e s t e d o n l y i n t r a d e p a r t n e r s s u p p l y i n g h i g h - p r i o r i t y goods o r p a y i n g i n h a r d c u r r e n c y . ( 4 5 ) A l s o , t h e r e a r e a l m o s t always o t h e r s o u r c e s of a i d and t r a d e a v a i l a b l e t o a T h i r d World n a t i o n , many of w h i c h can o f f e r p r o d u c t s s u p e r i o r t o t h o s e of t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . The S o v i e t s g e n e r a l l y r e l y upon m i l i t a r y a i d which n e c e s s i t a t e s t h a t B t u r n t o t h e West f o r economic a i d and t r a d e . F o r example, o f t h e $117 m i l l i o n i n l o a n s r e c e i v e d by E t h i o p i a i n 1979, more t h a n 75 p e r c e n t came from t h e West, n o t a b l y t h e W orld Bank and t h e E.E.C.(46) A l s o , i n t o t h e l a t e 1970s, E t h i o p i a was s t i l l d r a w i n g on i t s $100 m i l l i o n i n c r e d i t s p r o v i d e d by t h e S o v i e t U n i o n i n 1959.(47) The S o v i e t Union even encourages i t s a l l i e s t o t a k e advantage of t h e s e o t h e r s o u r c e s . T h i r d , a i d and t r a d e a r e common e n t i t i e s o f i n t e r - n a t i o n r e l a t i o n s whose s i g n i f i c a n c e t e n d s t o be e x a g g e r a t e d when t h e U.S.S.R i s i n v o l v e d . There seems t o be an e n l a r g e d i m p o r t a n c e a t t r i b u t e d t o i n c r e a s e s i n S o v i e t - T h i r d World t r a d e and a i d d e s p i t e t h e o f t e n r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l amounts i n v o l v e d . O n l y i n 45 a few i n s t a n c e s has S o v i e t t r a d e — imports or e x p o r t s — been a l a r g e p o r t i o n of a T h i r d World s t a t e ' s t o t a l t r a d e . From 1978-1980, onl y e i g h t T h i r d World s t a t e s shipped g r e a t e r than 10 p e r c e n t of t h e i r exports t o the U.S.S.R — A f g h a n i s t a n (53.7), Egypt (26.3), I n d i a (19.4), Ghana (19.4), A r g e n t i n a (18), S y r i a (16.1) and E t h i o p i a (11.8). Only i n a few i n s t a n c e s has S o v i e t t r a d e been a l a r g e p o r t i o n of a T h i r d World n a t i o n ' s t o t a l t r a d e . In the 1960s and 1970s, t r a d e w i t h the S o v i e t Union accounted f o r l e s s than 2 p e r c e n t of a l l T h i r d World trade.(48) From 1954-1979, the S o v i e t Union gave $8.23 b i l l i o n i n economic a i d t o T h i r d World n a t i o n s , e x c l u d i n g Cuba and Vietnam. In 1979 alone, the U n i t e d S t a t e s gave $7,012 b i l l i o n i n economic a i d t o T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s . ( 4 9 ) Fourth, even apparent dependence upon S o v i e t a i d and t r a d e does not guarantee S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n n a t i o n B. For example, although " C a i r o ' s dependence was t o t a l , " the S o v i e t Union c o u l d not prevent Nasser from beg i n n i n g a c o n f l i c t w i t h I s r a e l i n 1969.(50) As R u b i n s t e i n s t a t e s : ...the army and a i r f o r c e had t o be reequipped and r e t r a i n e d t o handle advanced weaponry, and the economy r e q u i r e d imports of food, i n d u s t r i a l m a t e r i a l s , and machinery, much of which Moscow b a n k r o l l e d . Between 1967 and 1969 alone, the S o v i e t investment i n t o Egypt was i n the range of $3 t o $4 b i l l i o n . N e v e r t h e l e s s , a g a i n s t S o v i e t wishes, Nasser s t a r t e d a "war of a t t r i t i o n " a g a i n s t I s r a e l a l o n g the l e n g t h of the Suez c a n a l i n March 1969.(51) Personnel can be a v a l u a b l e i n d i c a t o r of i n f l u e n c e . The 46 i m p o r t a n c e o f p e r s o n n e l i s t h e i n f l u e n c e r o l e t h e y p l a y w i t h i n B r a t h e r t h a n t h e i r mere p r e s e n c e o r q u a n t i t y . S o v i e t , E a s t European o r Cuban p e r s o n n e l can h o l d h i g h l y i n f l u e n t i a l p o s i t i o n s w i t h i n t h e governmental a p p a r a t u s o f B. Many new s t a t e s , A n g o l a f o r example, were s e v e r e l y h u r t by t h e exodus o f c o l o n i a l regime p r o f e s s i o n a l s when d e c o l o n i z a t i o n t o o k p l a c e . A f r a g i l e government o f a T h i r d W orld n a t i o n d e s p e r a t e f o r development can become dependent upon t h e e x p e r t i s e o f f o r e i g n a d v i s e r s and o f f i c i a l s . However, i t i s a l s o l i k e l y t h a t t h e r u l i n g e l i t e o f B w i l l keep t h e power and i n f l u e n c e o f t h e f o r e i g n e r s i n check. E v a l u a t i o n — Poor T h i s i n d i c a t o r ' s importance i s l a r g e l y based upon t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t i n c r e a s e d t r a d e , a i d , e t c e t e r a i n v o l v i n g t h e S o v i e t U n i o n n e c e s s a r i l y s i g n i f i e s S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . However, an a s s u m p t i o n o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i s n o t v a l i d g i v e n B's n a t u r a l i n c l i n a t i o n t o want t h e S o v i e t a i d and t r a d e . Cases o f a c t u a l t r a d e o r a i d dependence a r e r a r e s i n c e o t h e r s o u r c e s a r e u s u a l l y a v a i l a b l e t o B and t h e U.S.S.R. has n o t wanted a n o t h e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s i m i l a r t o t h e one i t has w i t h Cuba. F u r t h e r m o r e , as t h e E g y p t i a n example shows, S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e can be l a c k i n g even i n c a s e s of a p p a r e n t n a t i o n B dependence upon S o v i e t a i d o r t r a d e . T h e r e f o r e , Q u a n t i t a t i v e Measures o f T rade, A i d and P e r s o n n e l i s a poor i n d i c a t o r o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . 47 6 / The T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n A t a n g i b l e and e a s i l y i d e n t i f i a b l e i n d i c a t o r o f i n f l u e n c e i s t h e T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n . T h i s t r e a t y i s a common component o f S o v i e t - T h i r d World r e l a t i o n s , b u t i s r a r e i n S o v i e t r e l a t i o n s w i t h more d e v e l o p e d n a t i o n s . The o n l y major power t o have s i g n e d such a t r e a t y i s I n d i a . O t h e r t h a n I n d i a , t h e p a r t n e r s w i t h t h e S o v i e t Union i n a T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n have been poor, u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s s uch as I r a q , E t h i o p i a , t h e P e o p l e ' s D e m o c r a t i c R e p u b l i c o f Yemen and A n g o l a . Those t h a t have s i g n e d a t r e a t y have n e i t h e r t a k e n a g r e a t r i s k nor g a r n e r e d a s i g n i f i c a n t r e w a r d . W i t h i t s vague w o r d i n g and o n l y g e n e r a l commitments, t h e r e i s n e v e r v e r y much t h a t e i t h e r n a t i o n commits i t s e l f t o i n t h e t r e a t y . What i s t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f such a t r e a t y ? L a r g e l y , t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e t r e a t y i s based upon a p e r c e p t i o n o f S o v i e t c o n t r o l . The T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n i s p e r c e i v e d t o be a s t r o n g l i n k between B and t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . I t i s g i v e n i m p o r t a n c e because i t " i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e s " "Moscow's s p e c i a l r e l a t i o n s h i p " w i t h a T h i r d W o r l d n a t i o n . ( 5 2 ) N a t i o n B becomes t i e d t o t h e S o v i e t U n i o n by means o f t h i s t r e a t y . The example o f I n d i a p r o v i d e s e v i d e n c e o f t h e weakness o f t h e T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n as an i n d i c a t o r o f i n f l u e n c e . The 1971 t r e a t y d i d n o t g a r n e r t h e S o v i e t s g r e a t e r 48 c o n t r o l o f I n d i a n f o r e i g n o r d o m e s t i c b e h a v i o u r . A l s o , I n d i a s u c c e s s f u l l y r e s i s t e d r e p e a t e d a t t e m p t s by t h e S o v i e t s t o e x t e n d t h e l e n g t h o f t i m e o f t h e t r e a t y and t o expand i t s a r e a o f c o v e r a g e . The S o v i e t s l i k e t o renew t r e a t i e s , and, i f p o s s i b l e , t o e x t e n d t h e i r l e n g t h a good d e a l p r i o r t o t h e e x p i r y d a t e — presumably as a s i g n o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p ' s c o n t i n u i n g s t r e n g t h . However, t h e S o v i e t U n i o n d i d n o t p o s s e s s s u f f i c i e n t i n f l u e n c e t o f o r c e I n d i a t o g i v e i n t o t h i s r e q u e s t . ( 5 3 ) I t i s n e c e s s a r y t o c o n t e m p l a t e what t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f a T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n i s i n terms o f t h e o v e r a l l r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e S o v i e t U n i o n and a T h i r d W o r l d n a t i o n . S u r e l y a t r e a t y i n d i c a t e s a c o n g e n i a l i t y , o r even f r i e n d s h i p , between two n a t i o n s . However, t h e t r e a t y does n o t i n d i c a t e more t h a n m a r g i n a l S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . R u b i n s t e i n d e s c r i b e d t h e S o v i e t - E g y p t i a n t r e a t y as f o l l o w s : S e e k i n g t o s t a b i l i z e r e l a t i o n s w i t h Anwar Sadat...and t o i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e i t s p o l i t i c a l and m i l i t a r y p r e s e n c e , Moscow p r e s s e d f o r t h e S o v i e t -E g y p t i a n t r e a t y o f f r i e n d s h i p and c o o p e r a t i o n o f May 27, 1971. A r t i c l e 7 o f t h e t r e a t y h e l d t h a t ' i n t h e e v e n t o f t h e development of s i t u a t i o n s c r e a t i n g , i n t h e o p i n i o n o f b o t h s i d e s , a danger t o peace, t h e y w i l l c o n t a c t each o t h e r w i t h o u t d e l a y i n o r d e r t o c o n c e r t t h e i r p o s i t i o n s w i t h a view t o removing t h e t h r e a t t h a t has a r i s e n o r r e e s t a b l i s h i n g peace.' F o r t h e f i r s t t i m e , t h e USSR bound i t s e l f t o a m i l i t a r y commitment i n t h e T h i r d World — a measure o f E g y p t ' s importance t o Moscow and o f t h e USSR's gr o w i n g m i l i t a r y c o n f i d e n c e . Moscow hoped t h a t t h e t r e a t y would a s s u r e i t s p o s i t i o n i n Egypt and s e r v e as a model f o r cementing t i e s w i t h o t h e r T h i r d W orld c o u n t r i e s . . . D e s p i t e t h e t r e a t y , t h e S o v i e t l e a d e r s h i p found Sadat d i f f i c u l t . 1 1 (54) 49 Thus, d e s p i t e Moscow's hopes and m i l i t a r y commitment, t h e t r e a t y f a i l e d t o c u r t a i l S adat's independence. S a d a t ' s independence l e d t o a t u r b u l e n t S o v i e t - E g y p t i a n r e l a t i o n s h i p . I n 1972, a l l S o v i e t m i l i t a r y p e r s o n n e l were e x p e l l e d from Egypt. The T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and Co-o p e r a t i o n was u n i l a t e r a l l y a b r o g a t e d by Sadat on March 15, 1976, f o l l o w e d a month l a t e r by t h e c a n c e l l a t i o n o f f a c i l i t i e s f o r t h e S o v i e t navy. Thus, t h e t r e a t y d i d n o t even e n s u r e l a s t i n g f r a t e r n a l S o v i e t - E g y p t i a n r e l a t i o n s . E v a l u a t i o n — Poor I t c o u l d be argued t h a t a d i s t i n c t i o n s h o u l d be made between t h e t i m e when t h e t r e a t y i s s i g n e d and when i t i s a b r o g a t e d by B. Thus, t h e a b r o g a t i o n o f t h e t r e a t y need n o t negate t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e presumably g r e a t e r S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e a t t h e t i m e i t was s i g n e d . However, t h e l a c k o f s p e c i f i c commitments by B, t h e independence o f a c t i o n by B d e s p i t e a T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n , and t h e ease w i t h w h i c h B can a b r o g a t e t h e t r e a t y a l l r e v e a l t h e weakness o f t h i s i n d i c a t o r . The examples o f I n d i a and Egypt show t h e f a i l u r e o f t h e t r e a t y t o g r a n t t h e S o v i e t U n i o n i n f l u e n c e w i t h i n n a t i o n B. T h i s i s a poor i n d i c a t o r o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . 50 7/ A Vanguard Party The l a s t i n d i c a t o r o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i s t h e c r e a t i o n w i t h i n B o f a vanguard M a r x i s t - L e n i n i s t p a r t y o f t h e form d e s i r e d by Moscow. The S o v i e t Union's emphasis upon vanguard p a r t i e s i s i n d i c a t i v e o f i t s a t t e m p t s t o g a r n e r l e v e r a g e w i t h i n c l i e n t s t a t e s t h r o u g h more a c t i v e i n v o l v e m e n t i n t h e i r i n t e r n a l w o r k i n g s . As F r a n c i s Fukuyama s t a t e s : Encouragement o f M a r x i s t - L e n i n i s t n a t i o n a l l i b e r a t i o n movements and t h e i r t r a n s f o r m a t i o n i n t o e l i t e vanguard p a r t i e s has been an i m p o r t a n t element i n t h i s s t r a t e g y (more a c t i v e i n v o l v e m e n t i n i n t e r n a l w o r k i n g s o f c l i e n t s t a t e s ) . . . b e c a u s e i f t h o s e p a r t i e s came t o power, t h e y w i l l as a g e n e r a l r u l e be l e s s r e l u c t a n t t o c o o p e r a t e c l o s e l y w i t h t h e S o v i e t b l o c . They p r o v i d e an i n s t i t u t i o n a l b a s i s f o r a l o n g - t e r m r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h Moscow.(55) The s i g n i f i c a n c e o f vanguard p a r t i e s t o t h e S o v i e t Union, a c c o r d i n g t o D a v i d A l b r i g h t , i s t h e r e s u l t o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n ' s emphasis upon p o l i t i c a l means f o r e n l a r g i n g i t s range and d e p t h o f i n f l u e n c e . The U.S.S.R. does, o f c o u r s e , p o s s e s s c e r t a i n a s s e t s o f an economic and m i l i t a r y n a t u r e t h a t a r e e x p l o i t a b l e i n t h i s r e g a r d . But t h e s e t e n d t o be l i m i t e d i n scope o r o f d u b i o u s u t i l i t y f o r g u a r a n t e e i n g a l o c a l S o v i e t p r e s e n c e and a S o v i e t s a y i n l o c a l a f f a i r s o v e r t h e l o n g h a u l . Not s u r p r i s i n g l y , t h e n , Moscow has l o o k e d w i t h i n c r e a s i n g f a v o u r on p o l i t i c a l means t o f u r t h e r i t s p u r p o s e s i n t h e T h i r d World. I n t h i s c o n t e x t , t i e s w i t h vanguard p a r t i e s have had s p e c i a l a p p e a l . ( 5 6 ) Thus, r e a l i s i n g t h e l i m i t a t i o n s o f i n f l u e n c e t o o l s l i k e t r a d e and a i d , t h e S o v i e t U nion emphasised s c i e n t i f i c s o c i a l i s m and t h e v a n g u a r d p a r t y . 51 T h i r d World l e a d e r s o f former c o l o n i e s have n a t u r a l l y been drawn t o t h e a n t i - W e s t e r n and a n t i - c o l o n i a l c h a r a c t e r o f S o v i e t s o c i a l i s m . Some, such as t h e l e a d e r s o f S o m a l i a , A n g o l a and E t h i o p i a , have even formed vanguard p a r t i e s . The v a n g u a r d p a r t y f a c i l i t a t e s t h e M a r x i s t - L e n i n i s t i d e o l o g i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p o f a T h i r d W orld n a t i o n and t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . I t p r o v i d e s a u n i q u e c o n n e c t i o n between t h e two n a t i o n s b ased upon an approach w h i c h d i f f e r s from t h e more dominant Western i d e o l o g i e s o f democracy and c a p i t a l i s m . I n t h e 1970s, t h e S o v i e t d e f i n i t i o n o f a v a n g u a r d p a r t y went t h r o u g h some changes. P r e v i o u s l y , a "vanguard p a r t y had t o a c c e p t n o t j u s t ' s c i e n t i f i c s o c i a l i s m ' b u t t h e S o v i e t v e r s i o n t h e r e o f . Thus, s e l f - c l a s s i f i c a t i o n as a M a r x i s t -L e n i n i s t e n t i t y would not q u a l i f y a body as a v a n g u a r d p a r t y u n l e s s i t met S o v i e t s t a n d a r d s as w e l l . " ( 5 7 ) However, by 1978, t h e S o v i e t Union began t o r e c o g n i s e s e l f - s t y l e d " v a n g u a r d " p a r t i e s . The S o v i e t s r e c o g n i z e d a new k i n d o f " r e v o l u t i o n a r y democrat" i n c o u n t r i e s s uch as A n g o l a , S o u t h Yemen, Mozambique and S o m a l i a but were n o t o v e r l y o p t i m i s t i c a b o u t t h e p r o s p e c t s f o r S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n t h e s e c o u n t r i e s . ( 5 8 ) The d e f i n i t i o n was a l s o l o o s e n e d i n o r d e r t o g i v e l e g i t i m a c y t o p a r t i e s w h i c h had formed i n o p p o s i t i o n t o p r o - S o v i e t communist p a r t i e s . F or example, t h e S o v i e t U n i o n wanted t o see t h e u n i f i c a t i o n o f t h e two I n d i a n communist p a r t i e s , so t h e f o r m e r l y i l l e g i t i m a t e CP o f I n d i a - M a r x i s t was deemed l e g i t i m a t e t h r o u g h t h e new d e f i n i t i o n . ( 5 9 ) 52 A c c o r d i n g t o A l b r i g h t : What s e t a r e a p p r a i s a l i n m o t i o n r e m a i n s somewhat fo g g y . Perhaps i t was n o t h i n g more t h a n t h e r e c e n t p r o l i f e r a t i o n o f s e l f - s t y l e d M a r x i s t - L e n i n i s t " vanguard" p a r t i e s i n t h e T h i r d World...Or o t h e r c i r c u m s t a n c e s may have e n t e r e d i n t o t h e c a l c u l a t i o n s . For i n s t a n c e , a l l o f t h e "vanguard" p a r t i e s t h a t had come i n t o b e i n g p r i o r t o 1977 had done so under t h e a u s p i c e s o f r a d i c a l m i l i t a r y l e a d e r s , b u t 1977 had w i t n e s s e d t h e b i r t h o f some under c i v i l i a n a e g i s . ( 6 0 ) P r i o r t o t h e r e a p p r a i s a l , t h e S o v i e t c o n c e p t i o n o f a v a n g u a r d p a r t y adhered t o c o n v e n t i o n a l L e n i n i s t s t a n d a r d s . Such a p a r t y , i n S o v i e t eyes, had t o be an o r g a n i z a t i o n o f t e s t e d c a d r e s , n o t a mass body open t o a l l , and i t must o p e r a t e a c c o r d i n g t o t h e p r i n c i p l e o f d e m o c r a t i c c e n t r a l i s m , w i t h i t s l o w e r l e v e l s c l o s e l y s u b o r d i n a t e d t o i t s upper o r g a n i z a t i o n a l r o o t s among t h e masses, so as t o be a b l e t o m o b i l i z e them b e h i n d i t s programs.(61) The change t o t h e d e f i n i t i o n was n e c e s s a r y i n o r d e r f o r t h e S o v i e t U n i o n t o form a l l i a n c e s w i t h p a r t i e s and movements w h i c h were i n power o r i n t h e p r o c e s s o f t a k i n g power i n T h i r d W o r l d n a t i o n s b u t o f t e n were not s t r i c t l y s p e a k i n g M a r x i s t . W i t h t h i s change t o t h e concept o f t h e v a nguard p a r t y t h e S o v i e t U n i o n l o s t some o f i t s c o n t r o l . "Moscow's s t r e t c h i n g o f i t s c o n c e p t o f a vanguard p a r t y t o encompass u n o r t h o d o x e n t i t i e s has g r e a t l y c o m p l i c a t e d t h e t a s k o f a d v a n c i n g i t s ends t h r o u g h e x p l o i t a t i o n o f vanguard p a r t i e s . " ( 6 2 ) Few p a r t i e s w i t h s i g n i f i c a n t p o l i t i c a l power f i t t h e o l d d e f i n i t i o n o f a vanguard p a r t y . So, i n an a t t e m p t t o expand i t s i n f l u e n c e , t h e S o v i e t Union a l t e r e d t h e d e f i n i t i o n . The down s i d e o f t h i s " c r e a t i v e Marxism" f o r t h e S o v i e t s was t h a t 53 t h e newly d e f i n e d vanguard p a r t i e s would n o t adhere as c l o s e l y t o t h e commands o f t h e S o v i e t Union. The c r e a t i o n o f a vanguard p a r t y means t h e t r a n s f o r m a t i o n f r om m i l i t a r y t o c i v i l i a n r u l e : t h e s e p a r a t i o n o f t h e p o l i t i c a l e l i t e from t h e m i l i t a r y e l i t e . I n c o n t r a s t t o t h e l e a d e r s h i p o f many T h i r d World M a r x i s t - L e n i n i s t p a r t i e s and l i b e r a t i o n movements, t h e S o v i e t P o l i t b u r o has n e v e r been c o n t r o l l e d by t h e m i l i t a r y . G i v e n t h e p o l i t i c a l i n s t a b i l i t y o f many T h i r d W o r l d c o u n t r i e s , t h e l i f e e x p e c t a n c y o f a c i v i l i a n government t e n d s t o be much l e s s t h a n t h a t o f a m i l i t a r y one. Thus, t h e t r a n s f o r m a t i o n o f t h e r u l i n g p a r t y i n t o a vanguard i s r i s k y f o r B's r u l e r s . A m i l i t a r y l e a d e r i s i n charge o f b o t h t h e c o u n t r y and t h e army. F u r t h e r m o r e , he i s a p a r t o f t h e army. A l t h o u g h a m i l i t a r y r u l e r can f a c e t h e c h a l l e n g e o f an a t t e m p t e d coup, he woul d most l i k e l y be a b l e t o c a l l upon t r o o p s who remain l o y a l t o him. A c i v i l i a n l e a d e r c o u l d n o t c o u n t on s u c h l o y a l t y . Thus, s h o u l d a c h a l l e n g e a r i s e t o t h e r u l e o f a c i v i l i a n p a r t y , i t would have t o r e l y upon o t h e r s e c u r i t y s e r v i c e s , p o s s i b l y S o v i e t o r E a s t German, t o p r o t e c t i t from a v i o l e n t t h r e a t from w i t h i n t h e c o u n t r y . On t h e o t h e r hand, a m i l i t a r y r u l e r i s l e s s l i k e l y t o r e q u i r e t h e p r o t e c t i o n s e r v i c e s o f t h e S o v i e t s o r o t h e r s . T h i s keeps t h e S o v i e t s a t a g r e a t e r d i s t a n c e from t h e c o u n t r y ' s p o l i t i c a l power c o r e . The p r o - S o v i e t f a c t i o n s w i t h i n T h i r d W o r l d n a t i o n s f a v o u r t h e c r e a t i o n o f vanguard p a r t i e s so i t would seem t h a t t h e 54 f o r m a t i o n o f one would i n d i c a t e an i n c r e a s e i n power f o r t h e s e f a c t i o n s — and t h e r e b y g r e a t e r i n f l u e n c e f o r t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . I t would seem t h a t i f a vanguard p a r t y i s formed, t h e n t h e p r o - S o v i e t f a c t i o n s have succeeded i n e x e r c i s i n g i n f l u e n c e i n o r d e r t o a c c o m p l i s h t h i s . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e S o v i e t s would g a i n i n c r e a s e d c o n t r o l w i t h t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a v a nguard p a r t y s i n c e t h e c i v i l i a n l e a d e r s h i p would p r e s u m a b l y be b o t h more r e l i a n t upon t h e S o v i e t s f o r m i l i t a r y p r o t e c t i o n and t h e p r o - S o v i e t f a c t i o n s o f t h e government would p r e s u m a b l y have g r e a t e r power t h a n p r e v i o u s l y . The c r e a t i o n o f a vanguard p a r t y i n d i c a t e s a government t h a t i s w i l l i n g t o t a k e on t h e form d e s i r e d by t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . However, t h e f o r m a t i o n o f a vanguard p a r t y has n o t meant S o v i e t c o n t r o l w i t h i n B. As t h e c a s e s t u d i e s o f S o m a l i a and A n g o l a show, a vanguard p a r t y can s t i l l a c t i n o p p o s i t i o n t o t h e w i s h e s o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e between t h o s e who form a v a n g u a r d p a r t y f o r f o r e i g n p o l i c y r e a s o n s — t o be a l i g n e d w i t h t h e S o v i e t Union — and t h o s e who a r e g e n u i n e l y M a r x i s t -L e n i n i s t i n n a t u r e . Those w i t h o u t a t r u e M a r x i s t - L e n i n i s t b a s i s a r e l e s s l i k e l y t o r e t a i n an a f f i l i a t i o n w i t h t h e U.S.S.R. They w i l l form a vanguard based upon t h e i r s h o r t -t e r m needs r a t h e r t h a n i d e o l o g i c a l p r i n c i p l e s . Many T h i r d W o r l d n a t i o n s have s w i t c h e d r a p i d l y from one a l l e g i a n c e t o a n o t h e r . F o r example, B e n i n ' s P r e s i d e n t K e rekou q u i c k l y changed h i s n a t i o n ' s a f f i l i a t i o n from s c i e n t i f i c s o c i a l i s m t o 55 L i b y a n - i n s p i r e d Islamism.(63) A t r u l y M a r x i s t p a r t y i s more l i k e l y t o f o l l o w S o v i e t w i s h e s but would s t i l l p r o b a b l y temper i t s a c t i o n s w i t h pragmatism. C r e a t i n g a vanguard p a r t y can be i n t h e i n t e r e s t s o f B g i v e n t h e f r a g i l i t y o f many T h i r d W o r l d r e g i m e s . Through t h e c r e a t i o n o f a vanguard, regimes have " c o n s o l i d a t e d t h e i r own power and c r e a t e d a v a r i e t y o f h i g h l y c e n t r a l i z e d , top-down h i e r a r c h i c a l s t a t e i n s t i t u t i o n s . " ( 6 4 ) W i t h t h e f o r m a t i o n o f a v a n g u a r d p a r t y and i t s accompanying i n s t i t u t i o n s o f c o n t r o l , a r u l i n g p a r t y can s t r e n g t h e n i t s power base t h r o u g h b u r e a u c r a t i c and i n s t i t u t i o n a l means. S c i e n t i f i c s o c i a l i s m has t h e b e n e f i t f o r a r u l i n g e l i t e o f l e g i t i m i z i n g an i d e o l o g i c a l l y j u s t i f i e d d i c t a t o r s h i p t h r o u g h t h e v a n g u a r d p a r t y . W h i l e t h e programs and methods o f c o n t r o l a r e o s t e n s i b l y f o r t h e b e n e f i t o f t h e p e o p l e , t h e y can e n a b l e t h e e l i t e t o m a i n t a i n a f i r m g r i p upon t h e r e i g n s o f power and c o n t r o l o v e r t h e n a t i o n ' s p e o p l e . Whether a n a t i o n formed a vanguard depended more upon t h e d e s i r e o f t h e n a t i o n t o do so r a t h e r t h a n S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . Those who d i d form a vanguard, such as Mozambique and A n g o l a , d i d so a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r own t i m e t a b l e s and o f t e n d i d n o t a dhere t o S o v i e t g u i d e l i n e s . I t was t h e S o v i e t U n i o n w h i c h a l t e r e d i t s d e f i n i t i o n t o encompass t h e s e s e l f - s t y l e d v a n guard p a r t i e s . And even a p p a r e n t l y c l o s e a l l i e s o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n can r e s i s t S o v i e t p r e s s u r e t o form a vanguard. F o r example, a l t h o u g h dependent upon Cuban f o r c e s f o r t h e s u r v i v a l o f h i s 56 r e g i m e , E t h i o p i a ' s C o l o n e l M e n g i s t u r e s i s t e d S o v i e t demands f o r t h e t r a n s f o r m a t i o n o f t h e r u l i n g P r o v i s i o n a l M i l i t a r y A d m i n i s t r a t i v e C o u n c i l i n t o a vanguard p a r t y . The army-c o n t r o l l e d Dergue r e s i s t e d t h e f o r m a t i o n o f even a c i v i l i a n -b ased f u l l - f l e d g e d p o l i t i c a l p a r t y . ( 6 5 ) E v a l u a t i o n — F a i r A l t h o u g h a vanguard p a r t y may be an " i n s t i t u t i o n a l " b a s i s f o r a S o v i e t - T h i r d World n a t i o n r e l a t i o n s h i p , i t i s n o t a s t r o n g i n d i c a t o r o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . The common i d e o l o g y o f M arxism does c r e a t e t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e o v e r a v a n guard p a r t y . However, t h e r e a r e d e f i n i t e l i m i t s t o t h i s i n f l u e n c e . M a r x i s t governments, M e n g i s t u ' s E t h i o p i a f o r example, have r e s i s t e d S o v i e t p r e s s u r e t o form a v anguard p a r t y . O t h e r s , S o m a l i a f o r example, have a c t e d c o n t r a r y t o S o v i e t d e s i r e s even though r u l e d by a vanguard p a r t y . The w i d e r d e f i n i t i o n o f a vanguard c r e a t e d t h e i m p r e s s i o n o f an i n c r e a s e i n t h e number o f c l o s e S o v i e t a l l i e s . However, t h e i n f l u e n c e t h a t t h e S o v i e t s might have had upon t h e s e p a r t i e s was d i m i n i s h e d s i n c e t h e p a r t i e s d i d n o t adhere as s t r i c t l y t o S o v i e t s c i e n t i f i c s o c i a l i s m nor a l l o w f o r as much S o v i e t i n p u t as p r e v i o u s vanguards. R a t h e r t h a n t h e a c t u a l domain o f s o c i a l i s m i n c r e a s i n g , t h e d e f i n i t i o n o f s o c i a l i s m was changed i n o r d e r t o e n l a r g e i t s domain. The b e n e f i t s t h a t an a l l y o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n can e n j o y means t h a t a n a t i o n might a l i g n i t s e l f as s o c i a l i s t l a r g e l y f o r t h e sake o f appearances w h i l e h a v i n g n e i t h e r an h i s t o r i c a l M a r x i s t c h a r a c t e r nor a s t r o n g commitment t o M a r x i s m - L e n i n i s m . T r a n s f o r m i n g a p a r t y i n t o a vanguard can a l s o b e n e f i t t h e p a r t y i n m a i n t a i n i n g c o n t r o l o f i t s r e g i m e . The methods w h i c h a r e " n e c e s s a r y " i n o r d e r t o i n s t i t u t e t h e s o c i a l i s t t r a n s f o r m a t i o n o f t h e n a t i o n a l s o h e l p keep t h e e l i t e i n power. These b e n e f i t s t o B i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e f o r m a t i o n o f a v a n g u a r d p a r t y can be i n B's s e l f - i n t e r e s t r a t h e r t h a n b e i n g i n d i c a t i v e o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . The a s s u m p t i o n o f t h i s i n d i c a t o r i s t h a t t h e M a r x i s t n a t u r e o f a vanguard p a r t y i n d i c a t e s S o v i e t c o n t r o l . T h i s w o u l d be t h e c a s e when t h e S o v i e t s "impose" a government i n a c o u n t r y , such as i n E a s t e r n Europe a f t e r W o r l d War I I and more r e c e n t l y i n A f g h a n i s t a n ; S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e o v e r t h e r u l i n g v a n g u a r d would be g r e a t . I n n a t i o n s whose government i s n o t S o v i e t - i m p o s e d , S o v i e t s c i e n t i f i c s o c i a l i s m i s s t i l l presumed t o e n s u r e S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e w i t h i n t h e vanguard p a r t y . T h i s a s s u m p t i o n i s s i m i l a r t o p r e v i o u s t h i n k i n g about t h e s u p p o s e d l y u n d i v i d e d n a t u r e o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l communism. D e s p i t e t h e S i n o - S o v i e t s p l i t , some a n a l y s t s c o n t i n u e d t o a rgue t h a t t h e two n a t i o n s were i n e v i t a b l y c o n n e c t e d , i g n o r i n g t h e c l e a r l y independent a c t i o n s o f C h i n a and t h e a n i m o s i t y between t h e S o v i e t and Chinese governments. A n a t i o n ' s a l l e g i a n c e t o M a r x i s m - L e n i n i s m , l o n g - s t a n d i n g o r t e m p o r a r y , has n e v e r a s s u r e d t h e S o v i e t Union c o n t r o l o v e r t h e n a t i o n . 58 CHAPTER 4 — THE CASE STUDY OF SOMALIA I n I960, S o m a l i a became a newly i n d e p e n d e n t n a t i o n . W i t h t h e S o v i e t U n i o n as i t s b e n e f a c t o r , S o m a l i a b u i l t up i t s m i l i t a r y f o r c e s d u r i n g t h e 1960s and e a r l y 1970s. I n 1977, S o m a l i a i n v a d e d t h e e a s t e r n p a r t o f E t h i o p i a , t h e Ogaden, i n t h e hopes o f c l a i m i n g t h i s t e r r i t o r y — l a r g e l y p o p u l a t e d by S o m a l i s — as i t s own. I t t o o k t h i s a c t i o n a g a i n s t t h e w i s h e s o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n and a t t h e t h r e a t o f h a v i n g t h e v i t a l S o m a l i m i l i t a r y s u p p l y l i n e c u t by t h e S o v i e t s . The S o v i e t s were t h o u g h t t o have g r e a t i n f l u e n c e i n S o m a l i a because o f t h e i r r o l e as a m i l i t a r y s u p p l i e r t o S o m a l i a , b u t t h e S o v i e t s c o u l d n o t p r e v e n t t h e S o m a l i m i l i t a r y i n c u r s i o n i n t o E t h i o p i a . ( 6 6 ) The i n d i c a t o r s o f i n f l u e n c e w i l l be a p p l i e d t o t h e c a s e s t u d y o f S o m a l i a i n o r d e r t o t r y t o d e t e r m i n e t h e e x t e n t o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e p r i o r t o t h e i n v a s i o n . I f i n f l u e n c e can be e s t a b l i s h e d , t h e q u e s t i o n t o be c o n s i d e r e d i s : Why d i d S o m a l i a go a g a i n s t t h e d e s i r e s o f t h e S o v i e t Union? 1/ D o m e s t i c D i s s o n a n c e D u r i n g t h e 1960s, S o m a l i a s u f f e r e d from w i d e - s p r e a d c o r r u p t i o n . A c c o r d i n g t o B e r e k e t S e l a s s i e , " W e s t e r n - s t y l e democracy had c l e a r l y f a i l e d , c o r r u p t e d t o s u i t t h e aims o f 59 i n d i v i d u a l s , groups, and c l a s s e s . 1 1 (67) The N a t i o n a l A s sembly had become " w i d e l y r e g a r d e d c y n i c a l l y as a s o r d i d m a r k e t - p l a c e where, w i t h l i t t l e c o n c e r n f o r t h e i n t e r e s t s o f t h o s e who had v o t e d f o r them, d e p u t i e s t r a d e d t h e i r v o t e s f o r p e r s o n a l g a i n . " ( 6 8 ) A p p a r e n t l y P r e m i e r I g a l s p e n t o v e r $1 m i l l i o n i n p u b l i c funds i n payments t o members o f t h e Assembly between J a n u a r y and O c t o b e r , 1969.(69) The r e s u l t o f t h e c o r r u p t i o n was t h e 1969 o v e r t h r o w of t h e government by t h e f o r c e s l e d by G e n e r a l S i a d B a r r e f o l l o w i n g t h e a s s a s s i n a t i o n o f P r e s i d e n t Sharmarke. There was s p e c u l a t i o n o f S o v i e t c o m p l i c i t y i n t h e coup b u t no c o n c r e t e e v i d e n c e . There d i d not seem t o be any m o t i v a t i o n f o r S o v i e t c o m p l i c i t y e x c e p t f o r f u r t h e r s p e c u l a t i o n t h a t t h e Sharmarke regime had been s e e k i n g a i d f r o m t h e West.(70) Y e t , t h e S o v i e t s have o f t e n been i n f a v o u r o f t h e i r a l l i e s o b t a i n i n g Western a i d . The p o s t - c o u p p e r i o d was p o l i t i c a l l y s t a b l e . C o r r e s p o n d i n g l y , t h e r e was l i t t l e d o m e s t i c d i s s o n a n c e i n S o m a l i a d u r i n g t h e 1970s. Gorman d e s c r i b e s t h e B a r r e regime as a u t h o r i t a r i a n w i t h o u t a r e p u t a t i o n f o r b r u t a l i t y and " l a r g e l y u n a f f e c t e d by d o m e s t i c d i s s e n s i o n . " ( 7 1 ) O b v i o u s l y , P r e s i d e n t B a r r e m a i n t a i n e d s t r o n g c o n t r o l w i t h i n h i s government. T h i s i s e v i d e n t by t h e f a c t t h a t t h e r e were o n l y t h r e e s i g n i f i c a n t i n c i d e n t s o f i n t e r n a l d i s s e n t d u r i n g t h e 1970s. F i r s t , i n J u l y 1972, two members o f t h e Supreme R e v o l u t i o n a r y C o u n c i l were e x e c u t e d , h a v i n g been 60 c h a r g e d w i t h a t t e m p t i n g t o o v e r t h r o w t h e government. Second, i n J a n u a r y 1975, t e n r e l i g i o u s l e a d e r s were e x e c u t e d . T h i r d , i n A p r i l 1978, army o f f i c e r s were e x e c u t e d f o r an a t t e m p t e d coup.(72) The l a c k o f S o v i e t - r e l a t e d d o m e s t i c d i s s o n a n c e c o u l d mean a number o f t h i n g s . I t c o u l d i n d i c a t e s t r o n g S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . S o m a l i a was c o n s i d e r e d a model a l l y o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n because o f i t s r e a d i n e s s t o f u l f i l l S o v i e t w i s h e s ; f o r example, S o m a l i a a l l o w e d t h e S o v i e t s a c c e s s t o S o m a l i m i l i t a r y f a c i l i t i e s and s i g n e d a T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n . P r e s i d e n t B a r r e a l s o f u l f i l l e d S o v i e t w i s h e s by f o r m i n g a v a n g u a r d p a r t y . The S o m a l i w i l l i n g n e s s t o adhere t o S o v i e t d e s i r e s c o u l d be p e r c e i v e d as c a p i t u l a t i o n t o S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . T h i s a p p a r e n t l a c k o f S o m a l i f r e e w i l l c o u l d l e a d t o t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t S o m a l i a was l i t t l e more t h a n a S o v i e t s a t e l l i t e . T h i s a p p a r e n t s t r o n g c o n t r o l by t h e S o v i e t U n i o n w o u l d e x p l a i n t h e l a c k o f d o m e s t i c c o n f l i c t i n S o m a l i a . C o n v e r s e l y , t h e l a c k o f d i s s o n a n c e c o u l d be e x p l a i n e d by t h e s t r o n g c o n t r o l o f P r e s i d e n t B a r r e . H i s a u t h o r i t a r i a n c o n t r o l meant a l a c k o f o p p o s i n g v o i c e s t o t h e p o l i c i e s and d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g o f t h e P r e s i d e n t . T h e r e f o r e , t h e r e would n o t be much l i k e l i h o o d o f d o m e s t i c d i s s o n a n c e i n S o m a l i a . F u r t h e r m o r e , S o m a l i a ' s l a t e r independence o f a c t i o n and s p l i t f r o m t h e S o v i e t s p r o v e s i t was n o t a s a t e l l i t e o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . R a t h e r t h a n b e i n g i n d i c a t i v e o f e x t e n s i v e S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e , t h e l a c k o f d i s s o n a n c e was more l i k e l y t h e r e s u l t 61 o f P r e s i d e n t B a r r e ' s s t r o n g c o n t r o l . I n t h i s c a s e , t h e l a c k o f e v i d e n t d o m e s t i c d i s s o n a n c e i s symptomatic o f an a u t h o r i t a r i a n government r a t h e r t h a n a n a t i o n under S o v i e t c o n t r o l . As R u b i n s t e i n n o t e s , i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o l o c a t e e x p r e s s i o n s o f d i s s o n a n c e i n an a u t h o r i t a r i a n and r e l a t i v e l y c l o s e d s o c i e t y . The c o n t r o l o f i n f o r m a t i o n and l a c k o f d i s s e n t i n g v o i c e s i n an a u t h o r i t a r i a n regime makes t h o s e e x p r e s s i o n s o f d i s s o n a n c e t h a t do e x i s t more l i k e l y t o go u n n o t i c e d . ( 7 3 ) T h e r e f o r e , t h e r e may have been d i s s o n a n c e i n S o m a l i a t h a t was s i m p l y not e v i d e n t . P o s s i b l y , a g r e a t e r knowledge o f t h e i n n e r w o r k i n g s o f t h e S o m a l i d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c a l s p h e r e would r e v e a l more s u b t l e s i g n s o f S o v i e t -r e l a t e d d o m e s t i c d i s s o n a n c e . However, t h e outcome o f any d o m e s t i c c o n f l i c t would s t i l l have t o be c o n s i d e r e d i n o r d e r t o r e a c h a c o n c l u s i o n about S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . And g i v e n t h e S o m a l i r e f u s a l t o r e f r a i n from i n v a d i n g t h e Ogaden as t h e S o v i e t s wanted, i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t t h e S o v i e t U n i o n c o u l d have i n f l u e n c e d P r e s i d e n t B a r r e t o a c t c o n t r a r y t o h i s o b j e c t i v e s . 2/ Soviet A c q u i s i t i o n of M i l i t a r y , Naval and A i r F a c i l i t i e s The U.S.S.R. b e n e f i t t e d from i t s i n v e s t m e n t s i n S o m a l i a by r e c e i v i n g t h e r i g h t s t o t h e use o f n a v a l , a i r and ground 62 f a c i l i t i e s . ( 7 4 ) I n t h e e a r l y 1970s, t h e S o v i e t s s e t up n a v a l complexes a t B e r b e r a on t h e G u l f o f Aden and a t Mogadishu on t h e I n d i a n Ocean, and were a l l o w e d a c c e s s t o S o m a l i a i r f i e l d s a t B e r b e r a and Uanle Uen. By t h e mid-1970s, B e r b e r a had a deep-water p o r t , h o u s i n g f o r 1500, a communications f a c i l i t y , t h e f a c i l i t i e s f o r t h e s t o r a g e o f 175,000 b a r r e l s o f f u e l , an a i r f i e l d , and a f a c i l i t y f o r t h e h a n d l i n g and s t o r a g e o f t a c t i c a l m i s s i l e s . ( 7 5 ) Through i t s a c q u i s i t i o n of f a c i l i t i e s i n S o m a l i a , "Moscow g r e a t l y e x t e n d e d t h e range o f S o v i e t a i r r e c o n n a i s s a n c e and s t r e n g t h e n e d t h e s u p p o r t s t r u c t u r e f o r S o v i e t n a v a l c a p a b i l i t i e s i n t h e A r a b i a n S e a - I n d i a n Ocean r e g i o n . " ( 7 6 ) However, as R u b i n s t e i n s t a t e s , " p r i v i l e g e s and a major p r e s e n c e do n o t make a s a t e l l i t e . 1 1 (77) I n 1977, w i t h t h e d e t e r i o r a t i o n o f S o m a l i - S o v i e t r e l a t i o n s due t o t h e g r o w i n g S o v i e t - E t h i o p i a n r e l a t i o n s h i p , S i a d B a r r e e x p e l l e d t h e S o v i e t m i l i t a r y p e r s o n n e l from S o m a l i a and c a n c e l l e d t h e S o v i e t U n i o n ' s r i g h t s t o t h e use o f t h e S o m a l i f a c i l i t i e s . S i a d B a r r e was n o t a d v e r s e t o t h e S o v i e t use o f f a c i l i t i e s i n S o m a l i a . On t h e c o n t r a r y , i t was i n B a r r e ' s i n t e r e s t s t o a l l o w t h e S o v i e t s a c c e s s t o t h e f a c i l i t i e s . The S o v i e t p r e s e n c e i n S o m a l i a was h e l p f u l f o r t h e t r a i n i n g o f S o m a l i a ' s m i l i t a r y f o r c e s and f o r t h e S o m a l i m i l i t a r y b u i l d u p . I t w ould a l s o have been b e n e f i c i a l i n any c l a s h w i t h S o m a l i a ' s enemy, E t h i o p i a , by making i t more l o g i s t i c a l l y f e a s i b l e f o r E a s t e r n b l o c f o r c e s t o i n t e r v e n e on t h e s i d e o f S o m a l i a s h o u l d 63 i t be deemed n e c e s s a r y . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e S o v i e t p r e s e n c e was a d e t e r r e n t t o an a t t a c k by E t h i o p i a o r any o t h e r enemy. I m p o r t a n t l y , t h e S o v i e t s l o s t a c c e s s t o t h e f a c i l i t i e s as q u i c k l y as t h e y g a i n e d i t . The S o v i e t s were f o r c e d t o g i v e up t h e f a c i l i t i e s i n w h i c h t h e y had i n v e s t e d so much t i m e and money because t h e y d i d not have s u f f i c i e n t i n f l u e n c e o v e r P r e s i d e n t B a r r e . The S o v i e t s e n j o y e d t h e use o f t h e f a c i l i t i e s o n l y as l o n g as B a r r e a l l o w e d them t o do so. 3/ S o v i e t G o a l s and O b j e c t i v e s The S o v i e t s have been o p p o r t u n i s t i c i n t h e i r s e a r c h f o r a l l i e s i n A f r i c a . When t h e o p p o r t u n i t y a r o s e , t h e y d e v e l o p e d t i e s w i t h S o m a l i a i n t h e 1960s by s u p p l y i n g m i l i t a r y a i d . T h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p was cemented w i t h t h e a s c e n s i o n t o power o f S i a d B a r r e who wanted t o c o n t i n u e t h e S o m a l i m i l i t a r y b u i l d u p . G i v e n t h e extended S o v i e t - S o m a l i r e l a t i o n s h i p , t h e S o v i e t s a p p e a r e d t o have been v e r y s u c c e s s f u l i n S o m a l i a . I m p o r t a n t l y , t h e S o v i e t U n i o n a l s o seemed t o u n d e r c u t t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and t h e o t h e r Western n a t i o n s whose s m a l l e r o f f e r s o f a i d S o m a l i a r e j e c t e d . ( 7 8 ) We can a p p l y A l b r i g h t ' s l i s t o f S o v i e t g o a l s i n A f r i c a , m e n t ioned e a r l i e r , i n o r d e r t o show whether t h e U.S.S.R. was s u c c e s s f u l i n a c h i e v i n g i t s g o a l s . To r e i t e r a t e , A l b r i g h t ' s f o u r S o v i e t g o a l s a r e : (1) t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f b a s e s , (2) t h e 64 development o f a v o i c e i n A f r i c a , (3) undermin ing t h e West, and (4) c o u n t e r a c t i n g C h i n a . F i r s t , t he S o v i e t s s u c c e s s f u l l y e s t a b l i s h e d Soma l i a as a base f o r i t s m i l i t a r y , n a v a l and a i r a c t i v i t i e s . Second, i n k e e p i n g w i t h A l b r i g h t ' s d e f i n i t i o n , the S o v i e t s e s t a b l i s h e d a p r e s e n c e i n Somal ia l a r g e l y th rough m i l i t a r y a i d . T h i r d , t h e S o v i e t s a c h i e v e d the g o a l o f undermin ing the West, which had made a t tempts t o deve lop i t s r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h Soma l i a p r i o r t o t h e S o v i e t o f f e r o f a i d . F o u r t h , Ch ina was not r e a l l y a f a c t o r i n t h e S o v i e t - S o m a l i r e l a t i o n s h i p . As ment ioned, i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o determine t h e g o a l s and o b j e c t i v e s o f the S o v i e t Un ion . Assuming t h a t A l b r i g h t ' s l i s t o f g o a l s i s a c l o s e approx imat i on o f S o v i e t g o a l s , c l e a r l y , t h e S o v i e t Un ion was s u c c e s s f u l i n t h e p u r s u i t o f t h e s e g o a l s i n S o m a l i a . However, t h i s does not t e l l us t o what e x t e n t the S o v i e t Un ion had i n f l u e n c e i n Soma l i a . The as sumpt ion o f t h i s i n d i c a t o r i s t h a t S o v i e t succes s i n the p u r s u i t o f i t s g o a l s i n d i c a t e s S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . T h i s i s not n e c e s s a r i l y so . To de te rm ine S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e we need t o c o n s i d e r the Somal i p e r s p e c t i v e . In p a r t i c u l a r , S i a d B a r r e ' s o b j e c t i v e s must be examined. The re i s no i n d i c a t i o n t h a t S i a d Ba r re was adver se t o t h e S o v i e t p re sence i n h i s c o u n t r y . Somal ia pursued i t s own g o a l o f a m i l i t a r y b u i l d u p through i t s r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h the S o v i e t U n i o n . The goa l s t h a t the S o v i e t s a c h i e v e d i n Soma l i a were done i n c o n s o r t w i th P r e s i d e n t Ba r re r a t h e r than a g a i n s t h i s 65 w i s h e s . T h e r e f o r e , the S o v i e t s ' g o a l achievement d i d no t o c c u r th rough s i g n i f i c a n t S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . F u r t h e r m o r e , we need o n l y c o n s i d e r how q u i c k l y t h e S o v i e t s u c c e s s e s were r e v e r s e d i n o r d e r t o r e a l i s e t h e weakness o f t h i s i n d i c a t o r as a gauge o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n Soma l i a . 4/ Attitudes and Perceptions Due t o a l a c k o f i n f o r m a t i o n I am unab le t o a p p l y t h i s i n d i c a t o r t o t h e case s tudy . 5/ Quantitative Measures of Trade, Aid and Personnel The S o v i e t Union enab led the Somal i s t o b u i l d up t h e i r m i l i t a r y through i t s c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f t r a i n i n g and l a r g e amounts o f a i d . A t the same t i m e , the Somal i s were dependent upon t h e S o v i e t m i l i t a r y supp ly l i n e s i n c e they were a lways kep t on s h o r t r a t i o n s and had no o t h e r source o f m i l i t a r y a i d . D e s p i t e t h i s dependence, the S o v i e t s c o u l d not c o n t r o l t h e b e h a v i o u r o f P r e s i d e n t B a r r e . A f t e r independence, Somal ia was f i r s t o f f e r e d a i d by t h e U n i t e d A rab R e p u b l i c i n the form of a " s m a l l q u a n t i t y o f o b s o l e t e i tems from U n i t e d Arab R e p u b l i c i n v e n t o r i e s . " ( 7 9 ) A l t h o u g h t h e U n i t e d S t a te s r e f u s e d S o m a l i a ' s i n i t i a l r e q u e s t s 66 f o r a i d , t h e U n i t e d Kingdom and I t a l y j o i n t l y o f f e r e d $8.4 m i l l i o n i n 1962. T h i s was f o l l o w e d by an o f f e r by t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , I t a l y and West Germany, whereby t h e y would p r o v i d e $10 m i l l i o n i n equipment i n exchange f o r t h e S o m a l i s a g r e e i n g n o t t o t a k e a i d from any o t h e r s o u r c e . T h i s o f f e r r e m a i n e d open f o r a l m o s t a y e a r u n t i l i t was r e j e c t e d i n f a v o u r o f a $32 m i l l i o n agreement w i t h t h e S o v i e t U n i o n w h i c h i n v o l v e d t h e t r a i n i n g and e q u i p p i n g o f a 10,000 man S o m a l i f o r c e . The b u l k o f t h e program was t o be a g r a n t , w i t h t h e r e s t t o be p a i d o f f o v e r t h e n e x t twenty y e a r s . ( 8 0 ) I n 1969, w i t h t h e c o m p l e t i o n o f t h e o r i g i n a l b u i l d u p , t h e S o v i e t - S o m a l i m i l i t a r y a i d program was i n c r e a s e d . T h i s was f o l l o w e d i n 1974 by l a r g e commitments o f a i d t o S o m a l i a by L i b y a , I r a q and t h e U n i t e d Arab E m i r a t e s . However, t h e a c t u a l d i s b u r s e m e n t s o f a i d from t h e s e n a t i o n s were s l o w i n coming. I n t h a t same y e a r , S a u d i A r a b i a made an o f f e r o f $75 m i l l i o n dependent upon S o m a l i a b r e a k i n g i t s t i e s w i t h t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . The S o m a l i s d e c l i n e d t h e o f f e r . ( 8 1 ) I n an u n p r e c e d e n t e d a c t i o n , t h e S o v i e t Union p r o v e d t o be a v e r y g e nerous a l l y by c a n c e l l i n g t h e a p p r o x i m a t e l y $45 m i l l i o n S o m a l i f o r e i g n a i d debt.(82) S o m a l i a r e c e i v e d t h e l a r g e s t amount o f S o v i e t a s s i s t a n c e o f any A f r i c a n c o u n t r y d u r i n g t h e f i r s t h a l f o f t h e 1970s. When t h e 1974 T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n was s i g n e d w i t h t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , about $60 m i l l i o n i n economic a i d was ex t e n d e d t o S o m a l i a . Up t o 1975, So m a l i a was g i v e n a i d o f 67 $ 1 3 2 m i l l i o n . More a i d f o l l o w e d i n 1 9 7 6 - 1 9 7 7 . I n t o t a l , a bout $ 1 5 5 m i l l i o n i n economic c r e d i t s was ex t e n d e d t o S o m a l i a . However, o n l y about h a l f o f t h a t amount was t a k e n . ( 8 3 ) Over e i g h t y e a r s d u r i n g B a r r e * s r u l e , t h e S o v i e t U n i o n gave S o m a l i a $ 4 0 0 m i l l i o n i n m i l i t a r y a i d . I n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h i s r e c e i p t o f m i l i t a r y a i d , S i a d B a r r e expanded S o m a l i a ' s armed f o r c e s v a s t l y . The army had grown t o 2 0 , 0 0 0 men by 1 9 7 7 , f o r what seemed t o be i r r e d e n t i s t p u r p o s e s i n t h e Ogaden r e g i o n o f E t h i o p i a . ( 8 4 ) The S o v i e t - S o m a l i m i l i t a r y r e l a t i o n s h i p was b u i l t upon t h e f o u n d a t i o n o f making war; S o m a l i a wanted weaponry and t r a i n i n g w h i c h t h e S o v i e t U n i o n was w i l l i n g t o s u p p l y . As P a u l Henze p u t i t , " S i a d was a model f r i e n d o f t h e R u s s i a n s , who l a v i s h e d m i l i t a r y a i d on him t o e n s u r e t h a t c o n s e r v a t i v e A r a b o f f e r s would be l e s s a t t r a c t i v e . " W h i l e r e c e i v i n g t h i s a i d , S o m a l i a c o n t i n u e d t o b e n e f i t from Western, C h i n e s e and Ar a b economic a i d . ( 8 5 ) F o r example, I t a l y p r o v i d e d S o m a l i a w i t h s i g n i f i c a n t economic s u p p o r t . "And, as an a s s o c i a t e member o f t h e European Economic Community, S o m a l i a r e c e i v e d s u b s t a n t i a l a i d from t h e European Development Fund, w h i c h — among o t h e r t h i n g s — f i n a n c e d e x p a n s i o n o f t h e n a t i o n a l u n i v e r s i t y and, j o i n t l y w i t h t h e World Bank, c o n s t r u c t i o n o f a deep-water p o r t f o r M o g a d i s h u i " ( 8 6 ) Thus, S o m a l i a s u c c e s s f u l l y p l a y e d t h e West, t h e Ar a b s and t h e S o v i e t U n i o n o f f o f each o t h e r i n o r d e r t o pursue i t s g o a l o f a 68 m i l i t a r y b u i l d u p . S o m a l i a t o o k t h e most a p p e a l i n g o f f e r o f m i l i t a r y a i d , . t h a t o f t h e U.S.S.R. Wary o f l i m i t i n g i t s o p t i o n s , S o m a l i a r e f u s e d A m e r i c a n and S a u d i o f f e r s o f a i d w h i c h were c o n d i t i o n a l on a S o m a l i promise t o n o t a c c e p t a i d from t h e U.S.S.R. O s t e n s i b l y , S o m a l i a was dependent upon t h e S o v i e t U n i o n f o r m i l i t a r y a i d and t r a i n i n g . Y e t , t h i s seeming dependence d i d n o t p r e v e n t t h e S o m a l i i n v a s i o n o f E t h i o p i a . I r o n i c a l l y , i t was t h e S o v i e t - s u p p l i e d arms and t r a i n i n g w h i c h e n a b l e d S o m a l i a t o a c t a g a i n s t S o v i e t w i s h e s and p u r s u e i t s i r r e d e n t i s t aims. S o m a l i a ' s i n v a s i o n o f E t h i o p i a shows t h a t t h e S o m a l i dependence upon S o v i e t m i l i t a r y a i d d i d not g u a r a n t e e t h e S o v i e t s i n f l u e n c e i n S o m a l i a . T h i s i l l u s t r a t e s t h e weakness o f m i l i t a r y a i d as an i n s t r u m e n t o f i n f l u e n c e . F u r t h e r m o r e , a t t h e t i m e o f t h e i n v a s i o n , S o m a l i a r e c e i v e d o f f e r s o f m i l i t a r y a i d from b o t h S a u d i A r a b i a and t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . ( 8 7 ) S a u d i A r a b i a o f f e r e d S o m a l i a more t h a n $500 m i l l i o n f o r armaments.(88) True dependence i s r a r e s i n c e t h e r e a r e a l m o s t always o t h e r s o u r c e s o f a i d . 6 / The T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n I n 1974, S o m a l i a became t h e f i r s t A f r i c a n c o u n t r y t o s i g n a T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n w i t h t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . 69 However, o n l y t h r e e y e a r s l a t e r , i n November 1977, t h e S o m a l i s renounced t h e t r e a t y and o u s t e d t h e 6,000 m i l i t a r y and c i v i l i a n S o v i e t p e r s o n n e l . ( 8 9 ) T h i s s p l i t was c a u s e d by t h e S o v i e t s s u p p l y i n g arms t o E t h i o p i a , S o m a l i a ' s h i s t o r i c a l enemy, w h i c h was a v i o l a t i o n o f t h e t r e a t y . ( 9 0 ) The r e n u n c i a t i o n o f t h e t r e a t y was an i n d i c a t i o n o f t h e g e n e r a l d i s i n t e g r a t i o n o f S o v i e t - S o m a l i r e l a t i o n s w h i c h o c c u r r e d because o f t h e S o v i e t p u r s u i t o f c l o s e r r e l a t i o n s w i t h E t h i o p i a . P r e s i d e n t B a r r e was more t h a n w i l l i n g t o t a k e p a r t i n a T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n . I t d i d n o t impinge upon h i s o b j e c t i v e s ; i n f a c t , c l o s e r r e l a t i o n s w i t h t h e S o v i e t U n i o n was one o f h i s o b j e c t i v e s because o f t h e b e n e f i t s s u c h c l o s e r e l a t i o n s c o u l d b r i n g . The t r e a t y d i d n o t a f f e c t S o m a l i s o v e r e i g n t y n or B a r r e ' s power, so g r e a t s i g n i f i c a n c e s h o u l d n o t be a t t a c h e d t o i t . The T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n between S o m a l i a and t h e S o v i e t U n i o n i n d i c a t e d o n l y v e r y l i m i t e d S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . The l i m i t e d commitments o f t h e t r e a t y and t h e ease w i t h w h i c h i t was a b r o g a t e d by S o m a l i a were i n d i c a t i v e o f t h e absence o f s i g n i f i c a n t S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n S o m a l i a . B a s i c a l l y , t h e t r e a t y was i n d i c a t i v e o f f r i e n d l y S o v i e t - S o m a l i r e l a t i o n s . When t h e s e r e l a t i o n s f e l l a p a r t , t h e t r e a t y became o b s o l e t e . 70 7/ A Vanguard Party W i t h t h e 1969 coup, t h e S o m a l i W e s t e r n - s t y l e p a r l i a m e n t a r y democracy was r e p l a c e d by a " r e v o l u t i o n a r y democracy" t h a t s u p p o s e d l y p r o v i d e d r e p r e s e n t a t i o n and s e l f -government t h r o u g h a s e r i e s o f committees a t t h e r e g i o n a l , d i s t r i c t and v i l l a g e l e v e l s . ( 9 1 ) The g o v e r n i n g body o f t h e newly renamed " S o m a l i D e m o c r a t i c S t a t e , " headed by P r e s i d e n t S i a d B a r r e , was named t h e Supreme R e v o l u t i o n a r y C o u n c i l . "The new r e g i m e ' s aims s t r e s s e d t h e e l i m i n a t i o n o f c o r r u p t i o n and t r i b a l n e p o t i s m and t h e r e - e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f a j u s t and h o n o u r a b l e s o c i e t y i n w h i c h p r o p e r a t t e n t i o n would be g i v e n t o r e a l economic and s o c i a l b e t t e r m e n t f o r a l l . " ( 9 2 ) T h i s was f o l l o w e d i n O c t o b e r 1970 by t h e d e c l a r a t i o n by P r e s i d e n t B a r r e t h a t from t h a t t i m e on S o m a l i a would be d e d i c a t e d t o " S c i e n t i f i c S o c i a l i s m . " P r e s i d e n t B a r r e was eager t o form a c l a s s i c S o v i e t - s t y l e v a n g u a r d p a r t y a f t e r s i g n i n g t h e T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and Co-o p e r a t i o n i n 1974, h a v i n g announced h i s p l a n s f o r t h e c r e a t i o n o f a p a r t y modeled upon " s c i e n t i f i c s o c i a l i s t " p r i n c i p l e s i n 1973.(93) A c c o r d i n g t o P a u l Henze, t h e " S o m a l i s e c u r i t y s e r v i c e was s t r e n g t h e n e d a l o n g s t a n d a r d S o v i e t l i n e s . " ( 9 4 ) A 1974 r e o r g a n i z a t i o n o f t h e S o m a l i government p r e p a r e d t h e way f o r t h e J u l y 1976 i n t r o d u c t i o n o f t h e S o m a l i S o c i a l i s t R e v o l u t i o n a r y P a r t y . The e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f t h e new p a r t y was t h e f i n a l s t e p i n t h e p r o c e s s o f t h e r e p l a c e m e n t o f m i l i t a r y 71 r u l e by c i v i l i a n r u l e w h i c h t h e S o v i e t s had been p r e s s i n g f o r . ( 9 5 ) W i t h t h i s change from m i l i t a r y t o c i v i l i a n r u l e , S o m a l i a became a n a t i o n governed by a vanguard p a r t y , as d e f i n e d by t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . The S o v i e t s a c c o m p l i s h e d one o f t h e i r g o a l s by g e t t i n g P r e s i d e n t B a r r e t o t r a n s f o r m t h e S o m a l i government a l o n g t h e l i n e s t h e y d e s i r e d . Y e t , s c i e n t i f i c s o c i a l i s m a l s o s e r v e d B a r r e ' s p u r p o s e s . The t r a n s f o r m a t i o n o f t h e government was due more t o B a r r e ' s d e s i r e t o c o n s o l i d a t e h i s power and d e a l w i t h S o m a l i a ' s problems o f p o v e r t y , d i s e a s e and i g n o r a n c e r a t h e r t h a n due t o i n f l u e n c e by t h e S o v i e t s . A c c o r d i n g t o I.M. L e w i s , a n a t i o n a l c u l t was d e v e l o p e d a r o u n d S i a d B a r r e whereby t h e P r e s i d e n t was p r e s e n t e d as t h e ' V i c t o r i o u s L eader' (Guulwaadde), d a u n t l e s s l y l e a d i n g t h e n a t i o n i n i t s u n r e m i t t i n g s t r u g g l e a g a i n s t i t s f o e s . P o s t e r s , poems, songs o f p r a i s e and p a n e g y r i c speeches soon monotonously p r o c l a i m e d t h r o u g h o u t t h e c o u n t r y t h e s u b l i m e c a l l i n g o f t h e h e r o i c ' F a t h e r ' o f t h e n a t i o n , whose 'Mother' was t h e R e v o l u t i o n . ( 9 6 ) The use o f " t h i s M a o i s t c u l t t o f o c u s t h e v i t a l e n e r g i e s o f t h e masses was supplemented by a growing p l e t h o r a o f o t h e r a g e n c i e s o f t h o u g h t c o n t r o l . " ( 9 7 ) B a r r e ' s s o c i a l i s t S o m a l i a emphasised c o n t r o l o f t h e p e o p l e t h r o u g h t h e N a t i o n a l S e c u r i t y S e r v i c e (N.S.S.) and N a t i o n a l S e c u r i t y C o u r t s (N.S.C.), and o r g a n i z a t i o n s such as t h e n a t i o n a l " o r i e n t a t i o n c e n t e r s " and t h e v i g i l a n t e V i c t o r y P i o n e e r s . The N.S.S. and N.S.C. . . . j o i n t l y d e a l t w i t h a wide range o f ' p o l i t i c a l ' o f f e n c e s i n c l u d i n g n e p o t i s m and t r i b a l i s m , as w e l l as w i t h such c h a r g e s as ' l a c k o f r e v o l u t i o n a r y z e a l ' 72 and treason. Members of the N.S.S., under a Sandhurst and K.G.B.-trained commander, enjoyed a r b i t r a r y powers of arrest, sometimes following the denunciation of a suspect by h i s personal enemies.(98) The V i c t o r y Pioneers were a type of youth m i l i t i a r e c r u i t e d mostly from the unemployed whose main purposes seemed to be "mobilizing the population for the compulsory essays i n s e l f -help and monitoring the a c t i v i t i e s of foreigners, p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e i r contacts with Somalis."(99) S c i e n t i f i c socialism provided the j u s t i f i c a t i o n and the method for President Barre to consolidate his authoritarian regime. Lewis describes President Barre's regime as follows: I f t h i s e x t r a o r d i n a r i l y complex apparatus... included any members capable of seriously challenging the authority of the President i t was c e r t a i n l y by accident... i t was clear that the President had every intention of retaining as complete control as ever...What the new structure sought to do was to endow the President's authority with greater legitimacy... Certainly socialism was here a means rather than an end.(100) As evidence of h i s ephemeral commitment to Marxism-Leninism, Barre's Marxist rhetoric ended with the d i s i n t e g r a t i o n of the Somali-Soviet relationship. Barre's statements were made for the benefit of the Soviet Union. Once the Soviet-Somali r e l a t i o n s h i p disintegrated there was no longer a need for such statements.(101) Siad Barre did act as the Soviets wished when he formed a vanguard party. However, the key point i s that the Soviets did not accomplish t h i s against the wishes of President Barre. 73 A c t u a l l y , B a r r e r e a d i l y t o o k t o s c i e n t i f i c s o c i a l i s m a n d u s e d i t t o h i s own e n d . T h e r e f o r e , we c a n n o t a t t r i b u t e s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e t o t h e S o v i e t s w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h i s i n d i c a t o r . Conclusion From t h e t i m e o f t h e i n i t i a l S o v i e t - S o m a l i m i l i t a r y a i d a g r e e m e n t i n t h e 1 960s t o t h e e v e n t u a l s p l i t b e t w e e n t h e two c o u n t r i e s i n 1977, t h e S o v i e t U n i o n h a d a n e x t e n s i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h S o m a l i a . The S o v i e t U n i o n was S o m a l i a ' s s u p e r p o w e r b e n e f a c t o r , s u p p l y i n g i t w i t h m i l i t a r y t r a i n i n g a n d l a r g e a m o u n t s o f m i l i t a r y a i d . By a l l a p p e a r a n c e s , S o m a l i a was a s t r o n g S o v i e t a l l y , i f n o t a n e a r s a t e l l i t e . W i t h r e s p e c t t o Q u a n t i t a t i v e M e a s u r e s o f T r a d e , A i d a n d P e r s o n n e l , t h e S o v i e t U n i o n was S o m a l i a ' s s o l e s o u r c e f o r t h e e x t e n s i v e m i l i t a r y a i d and t r a i n i n g i t r e c e i v e d d u r i n g t h e 1 9 6 0 s a n d 1 9 7 0 s . P r e s i d e n t B a r r e r e a d i l y c o n v e r t e d t h e r u l i n g S o m a l i p a r t y i n t o a S o v i e t - s t y l e v a n g u a r d p a r t y . The S o v i e t U n i o n a n d S o m a l i a s i g n e d a T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p a n d Co-o p e r a t i o n i n 1974. The S o v i e t U n i o n a l s o a c q u i r e d e x t e n s i v e a i r , n a v a l a n d m i l i t a r y f a c i l i t i e s i n S o m a l i a . The S o v i e t s seemed t o r e a d i l y a c h i e v e t h e i r g o a l s i n S o m a l i a . By a l l a p p e a r a n c e s , t h e s e i n d i c a t o r s seem t o show t h a t t h e S o v i e t s s u c c e s s f u l l y e x e r c i s e d i n f l u e n c e w i t h i n t h e i r m o d e l a l l y , S o m a l i a . Y e t , t h i s i n f l u e n c e d i d n o t p r e v e n t S o m a l i i n d e p e n d e n c e o f a c t i o n . T h e r e w e r e d e f i n i t e l i m i t a t i o n s t o S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n S o m a l i a . S o m a l i a i n v a d e d E t h i o p i a d e s p i t e S o v i e t p r o t e s t a t i o n s and t h r e a t s t o t h e S o m a l i m i l i t a r y s u p p l y l i n e . T h i s i s s t r o n g e v i d e n c e t h a t d e s p i t e appearances, t h e S o v i e t U n i o n d i d n o t have s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e w i t h i n S o m a l i a . I t was n o t a S o v i e t s a t e l l i t e . A c l o s e i n s p e c t i o n o f t h e i n d i c a t o r s shows t h a t t h e S o v i e t s d i d not succeed i n g e t t i n g S i a d B a r r e t o a c t c o n t r a r y t o h i s i n t e r e s t s . I n f a c t , most of them i n d i c a t e e i t h e r a l a c k o f commitment t o t h e i s s u e on B a r r e ' s p a r t , o r t h e m u t u a l i n t e r e s t s o f S o m a l i a and t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . The Q u a n t i t a t i v e Measures of Trade, A i d and P e r s o n n e l , A c q u i s i t i o n o f F a c i l i t i e s , Vanguard P a r t y , and S o v i e t G o a l s i n d i c a t o r s a l l i n v o l v e d mutual i n t e r e s t s o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n and S o m a l i a . The T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n , Vanguard P a r t y and S o v i e t G o a l s i n d i c a t o r s i n v o l v e d i s s u e s o f low i m p o r t a n c e t o S o m a l i a . Thus, t h e s e i n d i c a t o r s d i d n o t r e v e a l t h e S o v i e t Union t o have i n f l u e n c e d S i a d B a r r e t o a c t a g a i n s t h i s w i s h e s on an i s s u e o f i m p o r t a n c e . The c l e a r e s t d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f i n f l u e n c e i s t h e outcome of a s p e c i f i c demand by A upon B, such as t h e S o v i e t U nion's unheeded demand t h a t S o m a l i a not i n v a d e E t h i o p i a . T h i s f a i l u r e o f t h e S o v i e t s t o i n f l u e n c e P r e s i d e n t B a r r e i s e s p e c i a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t because of t h e s t r o n g S o m a l i commitment t o t h e g o a l o f r e t r i e v i n g t h e " l o s t t e r r i t o r i e s . " The t r u e s t t e s t o f A's i n f l u e n c e i n v o l v e s i s s u e s which a r e b o t h o f i m p o r t a n c e t o n a t i o n B and w i t h r e s p e c t t o w h i c h B and A have 75 d i f f e r e n t g o a l s . Although S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e f l u c t u a t e s over time, the l i m i t a t i o n s of S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e would have been r e v e a l e d a t any time the S o v i e t s c h a l l e n g e d Somalia's commitment t o i t s long-standing g o a l of r e g a i n i n g the " l o s t t e r r i t o r i e s . " R e f e r r i n g t o the S o v i e t f a i l u r e t o convince Somalia t o abandon pl a n s t o invade the Ogaden, Marina Ottaway s t a t e s t h a t , " M a t e r i a l b e n e f i t s c o u l d buy ot h e r m a t e r i a l b e n e f i t s i n r e t u r n but not i n f l u e n c e over important p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s i n v o l v i n g major g o a l s . " ( 1 0 2 ) The S o v i e t i n a b i l i t y t o i n f l u e n c e P r e s i d e n t Barre on t h i s i s s u e makes e v i d e n t the l a c k of s i g n i f i c a n t S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e w i t h i n Somalia. 76 CHAPTER 5 — THE CASE STUDY OF ANGOLA The A p r i l 1974 coup which toppled President Caetano's Portuguese government led d i r e c t l y to the end of Portuguese c o l o n i a l r u l e i n Angola. The new Portuguese government favoured Angolan independence as soon as possible. On January 15, 1975, the Alvor Agreement was signed by the Portuguese government and representatives of the three Angolan l i b e r a t i o n movements, the MPLA, the FNLA and UNITA. The agreement provided for an immediate cease-fire between the Portuguese and g u e r r i l l a forces and the granting of independence on November 10, 1975. Angola was considered a valuable prize i n the U.S.-Soviet competition for influence i n the Third World because of i t s economic p o t e n t i a l and strategic value. Angola was valued because i t i s well-endowed with o i l , diamonds, gold and other minerals, as well as coffee. And Angola's several excellent harbours and proximity to the Cape o i l route from the Persian Gulf to Western Europe and the United States gave the nation a st r a t e g i c importance to the superpowers. With the impending independence, the stage was set for a superpower competition for influence i n Angola. The t r a n s i t i o n a l Angolan government was made up of members from a l l three l i b e r a t i o n movements and acted i n conjunction with a Portuguese High Commissioner. However, p r i o r to the granting of independence, f i g h t i n g broke out between the MPLA, the FNLA and UNITA. Angola degenerated into a state of c i v i l war involving the l i b e r a t i o n forces and troops from Zaire, South A f r i c a and Cuba. The Soviet Union, China and the United States a l l provided arms and funds to the various l i b e r a t i o n movements. In late 1975, the Soviets helped equip and transport to Angola Cuban troops to f i g h t i n support of the MPLA. As the f i g h t i n g continued, Portugal withdrew i t s troops and granted independence but did not recognize any of the three movements as the legitimate Angolan government. Although the March 1976 withdrawal of the South A f r i c a n forces marked the end of the so-called "Angolan War," the f i g h t i n g continued. The Cuban troops remained to help the MPLA i n i t s battles against the FNLA and UNITA. South A f r i c a n troops also made occasional forays into Angola. Due to the Soviet m i l i t a r y aid and the presence of the 15,000-2 0,000 Cuban troops, the MPLA was able to esta b l i s h i t s e l f as the government of Angola. However, the ongoing opposition from the FNLA and UNITA necessitated the continued presence of the Cuban forces i n support of the MPLA government. Clearly, the Soviet Union was a major player within Angola because of i t s roles as both an arms supplier to the MPLA and the conduit for the transportation of the Cuban forces to Angola. The indicators of influence w i l l be applied to the case study of Angola i n order to determine to what extent the Soviet Union's role i n Angola translated into 78 i n f l u e n c e . 1/ Domestic Dissonance The MPLA s u f f e r e d from f a c t i o n a l i s m from the time of the e l e c t i o n of Agostinho Neto as i t s p r e s i d e n t i n December 1962. Having accused Neto of f o l l o w i n g a " r e v i s i o n i s t t r e n d , " V i r i a t o Da Cruz was removed as the MPLA s e c r e t a r y general i n May 1963. Despite the f a c t i o n a l i s m , strong challenges t o Neto's l e a d e r s h i p d i d not occur u n t i l the f i r s t h a l f of the 1970s. In May 1974, Mario de Andrade formed the mestico(mulatto)-dominated A c t i v e Revolt f a c t i o n of the MPLA i n o p p o s i t i o n t o Neto's "personalized methods of l e a d e r s h i p . " In the same year, Neto a l s o faced a challenge t o h i s presidency from the eastern f r o n t m i l i t a r y commander, D a n i e l Chipenda. Chipenda, an Ovimbundu and the leader of most of the MPLA's m i l i t a r y f o r c e s , wanted l e s s i n f l u e n c e by mesticos w i t h i n the MPLA. According t o K e i t h S o m e r v i l l e , Chipenda and h i s supporters posed a ser i o u s challenge t o Neto and "at one stage dur i n g the s p l i t , r e p o r t e d l y succeeded i n persuading the S o v i e t Union to support t h e i r f a c t i o n r a t h e r than Neto's."(103) Chipenda was e v e n t u a l l y e x p e l l e d from the p a r t y i n December of 1975.(104) The strongest challenge t o Neto's r u l e came from the N i t i s t s , supporters of N i t o Alves. Alves was more pro-Soviet 79 t h a n Neto and was a g a i n s t t i e s w i t h t h e West. As e v i d e n c e of h i s c l o s e t i e s t o t h e S o v i e t Union, A l v e s a t t e n d e d t h e F e b r u a r y 1976 CPSU co n g r e s s i n Moscow and made p r o - S o v i e t speeches upon h i s r e t u r n t o Angola.(105) An i m p o r t a n t l e a d e r i n t h e MPLA, A l v e s l e d t h e b a t t l e a g a i n s t t h e FNLA i n Luanda i n J u l y 1975 and s u p p o r t e d P r e s i d e n t Neto i n h i s l e a d e r s h i p s t r u g g l e w i t h D a n i e l Chipenda. N o n e t h e l e s s , i n O c t o b e r 1976, A l v e s was e x p e l l e d from t h e MPLA C e n t r a l Committee f o r " f a c t i o n a l i s m . " Neto, c o n s i d e r e d a moderate and wary o f c l o s e t i e s t o t h e S o v i e t Union, viewed A l v e s as a s e r i o u s t h r e a t t o h i s l e a d e r s h i p . ( 1 0 6 ) A p p a r e n t l y , N i t o A l v e s was i n j a i l on May 27, 1977 when h i s f o l l o w e r s attempted t o o v e r t h r o w t h e Neto government.(107) W i t h t h e h e l p o f t h e Cuban t r o o p s i n A n g o l a , t h e coup attempt was q u i c k l y t h w a r t e d . The S o v i e t Union was slow i n v o i c i n g i t s s u p p o r t f o r Neto a t t h e t i m e o f t h e coup attempt. Not u n t i l June 5 d i d t h e S o v i e t s p u b l i c l y i n d i c a t e t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e f o r Neto and t h e i r o p p o s i t i o n t o t h e " s p l i t t i s t s . " ( 1 0 8 ) Due t o t h e l a c k o f S o v i e t s u p p o r t f o r Neto and t h e i r f a v o u r a b l e o p i n i o n o f A l v e s , t h e r e has been s p e c u l a t i o n t h a t t h e S o v i e t s p a r t i c i p a t e d i n t h e coup a t t e m p t . Andrew Young s t a t e d , " D i d you know t h a t t h e R u s s i a n s t r i e d t o o v e r t h r o w P r e s i d e n t A g o s t i n h o Neto's Government i n May?" A c c o r d i n g t o G e r a l d Bender, A l v e s t h o u g h t he had t h e S o v i e t s 1 " b l e s s i n g s . " F u r t h e r m o r e , Simon M a l l e y c l a i m s t h a t t h e N i t i s t s approached t h e E a s t European embassies 80 p r i o r t o t h e coup attempt i n o r d e r t o s e c u r e s u p p o r t . A p p a r e n t l y , t h e y s a i d t h a t t h e y would a l l o w S o v i e t a i r and n a v a l bases i n Angola.(109) D e s p i t e t h e s p e c u l a t i o n o f S o v i e t a s s i s t a n c e , t h e r e i s no c o n c r e t e e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e S o v i e t s a i d e d t h e N i t i s t s . However, a c c o r d i n g t o A r t h u r K l i n g h o f f e r , t h e S o v i e t U n i o n must have known about A l v e s 1 p l o t and n e i t h e r warned Neto o f i t n o r a i d e d him d u r i n g t h e r e v o l t . S o v i e t a d v i s e r s and i n t e l l i g e n c e a g ents i n Angola were i n c l o s e c o n t a c t w i t h A l v e s and must have had knowledge o f h i s p l a n s . As K l i n g h o f f e r s t a t e s , t h e S o v i e t f a i l u r e t o expose A l v e s c o u l d l e a d t o t h e a c c u s a t i o n t h a t t h e y were t a c i t l y a b e t t i n g him.(110) I m p o r t a n t l y , Neto s u s p e c t e d t h e S o v i e t U n i o n o f c o m p l i c i t y i n t h e coup a t t e m p t . The MPLA r e l e a s e d a s t a t e m e n t on f a c t i o n a l i s m w hich c l a i m e d t h a t t h e N i t i s t s d i s t o r t e d M a r x i s t -L e n i n i s t c o n c e p t s and had a " f e i g n e d d e d i c a t i o n t o some f r i e n d l y c o u n t r y . " Angolan s u p p o r t e r s o f Neto "were a l l e g i n g t h a t t h e S o v i e t Union was i m p l i c a t e d i n t h e A l v e s p l o t and i t appear s t h a t Neto b e l i e v e d i n c o n n i v a n c e a g a i n s t h i m . " ( I l l ) I f t h e S o v i e t Union d i d c o n n i v e w i t h t h e N i t i s t s , S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e upon t h e s i t u a t i o n was v e r y m i n i m a l . The ease w i t h w h i c h t h e N i t i s t s were d e f e a t e d i n d i c a t e s t h a t e i t h e r t h e y d i d n o t g e t much s u p p o r t from t h e S o v i e t s o r t h e S o v i e t s u p p o r t was c o m p l e t e l y i n e f f e c t u a l . I n e i t h e r c a s e , t h e S o v i e t U n i o n f a i l e d t o a c h i e v e i t s g o a l o f a i d i n g A l v e s t o come t o power. 81 I n t e r e s t i n g l y , i t appears t h a t by s u p p o r t i n g Neto, and t h e r e b y e s s e n t i a l l y m a i n t a i n i n g him i n power, t h e Cubans a c t e d c o n t r a r y t o t h e w i s h e s of t h e S o v i e t Union. A c c o r d i n g t o K l i n g h o f f e r , "Cuba t h e r e f o r e defended t h e Neto government from t h e p r o - S o v i e t N i t i s t s w h i l e t h e S o v i e t Union t u r n e d a n o t so b l i n d eye away from A l v e s ' p r e p a r a t i o n s . " ( 1 1 2 ) T h i s i n d i c a t e s an independence on t h e p a r t o f t h e Cuban f o r c e s w h i c h have g e n e r a l l y been thought t o be S o v i e t p r o x i e s . Assuming S o v i e t s u p p o r t of A l v e s , t h e i n d e p e n d e n t a c t i o n s o f t h e Cubans and t h e f a i l u r e of t h e N i t i s t s i n d i c a t e a l a c k o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n t h i s i n s t a n c e o f d o m e s t i c d i s s o n a n c e . S i n c e t h i s was an i s s u e o f importance t o Neto on w h i c h h i s g o a l d i f f e r e d from t h a t o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , t h e absence o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i s e s p e c i a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t . 2/ S o v i e t A c q u i s i t i o n o f M i l i t a r y , N a v a l and A i r F a c i l i t i e s A r t i c l e 16 o f t h e p o s t - c o l o n i a l A ngolan c o n s t i t u t i o n p r o h i b i t e d t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f f o r e i g n m i l i t a r y bases on A n g o l a n s o i l . P r e s i d e n t Neto was opposed t o h a v i n g f o r e i g n bases i n h i s c o u n t r y , but s t a t e d t h a t t h e y might be a l l o w e d i f i t was deemed t o be e s s e n t i a l t o t h e d e f e n s e o f A n g o l a . ( 1 1 3 ) The S o v i e t s wanted a c c e s s t o f a c i l i t i e s i n A n g o l a i n o r d e r t o i n c r e a s e t h e i r power p r o j e c t i o n c a p a b i l i t y and e s t a b l i s h a p r e s e n c e i n t h e r e g i o n . Through t h e i r t i e s 82 w i t h t h e MPLA, t h e S o v i e t s a c q u i r e d p o r t r i g h t s i n Luanda, L o b i t a and Mocamedes and o p e r a t e d a e r i a l s u r v e i l l a n c e o u t o f Luanda. The S o v i e t s were g r a n t e d t h e same p o r t , o v e r f l i g h t and l a n d i n g r i g h t s p r e v i o u s l y e n j o y e d by t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s when A n g o l a was under Portuguese r u l e . ( 1 1 4 ) And i n September 1981, t h e S o v i e t Union i n s t a l l e d a d r y d o c k i n A n g o l a i n o r d e r t o s e r v i c e t h e S o v i e t navy.(115) The S o v i e t Union a c q u i r e d t h e r i g h t s t o f a c i l i t i e s i n A n g o l a . How does t h i s r e l a t e t o S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n t h a t n a t i o n ? K l i n g h o f f e r emphasises t h e d i f f e r e n c e between i n f l u e n c e and power p r o j e c t i o n c a p a b i l i t y : ...one must be c a r e f u l t o draw d i s t i n c t i o n s between t h e p r o j e c t i o n o f S o v i e t power i n t o A n g o l a and t h e e x t e n s i o n o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e o ver t h e MPLA. The for m e r would i n c l u d e m i l i t a r y base and o v e r f l i g h t r i g h t s o r t h e p o s i t i o n i n g o f t r o o p s and weapons and need n ot be d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o t h e degree o f i n f l u e n c e e x e r c i s e d over t h e MPLA l e a d e r s h i p . I n f a c t , t h e p r o j e c t i o n o f S o v i e t power c o u l d l e a d t o a l o g i s t i c dependence r e l a t i o n s h i p which p r o v i d e s t h e MPLA w i t h added p o l i t i c a l l e v e r a g e o v e r t h e U.S.S.R.(116) I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o c o n s i d e r t h a t t h e S o v i e t a c q u i s i t i o n o f f a c i l i t i e s i n A n g o l a c o u l d g i v e t h e MPLA i n f l u e n c e o v e r t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . By e s t a b l i s h i n g t h e m s e l v e s i n a n a t i o n , t h e S o v i e t s make an i n v e s t m e n t t h a t t h e y would n o t want t o l o s e ; an i n v e s t m e n t o f not o n l y f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e s , b u t o f t i m e and p r e s t i g e . The v a l u e t o t h e S o v i e t Union o f h a v i n g a p r e s e n c e i n A n g o l a s h o u l d g i v e t h e MPLA a c e r t a i n amount o f l e v e r a g e i n d e a l i n g w i t h t h e S o v i e t s . The e x t e n t o f t h i s l e v e r a g e depends 83 upon t h e importance o f t h e f a c i l i t i e s t o t h e S o v i e t U n i o n and t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e a t t a c h e d t o l o s i n g them. As l o n g as t h e r e a r e no r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e e q u i v a l e n t f a c i l i t i e s , t h e n A n g o l a would have a s t r o n g e r p o s i t i o n from w h i c h t o n e g o t i a t e . And t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e f a c i l i t i e s t o t h e S o v i e t U n i o n would be p a r t i a l l y based upon t h e f a c t t h a t b o t h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s and C h i n a would p r o b a b l y be eager t o r e p l a c e t h e S o v i e t p r e s e n c e . T h i s would g i v e t h e MPLA some i n f l u e n c e o v e r t h e U.S.S.R. However, p o r t f a c i l i t i e s i n a d i s t a n t T h i r d World n a t i o n a r e n o t l i k e l y t o be o f such i m p o r t a n c e t o t h e S o v i e t U n i o n so as t o g i v e Neto s u b s t a n t i a l i n f l u e n c e ; t h e S o v i e t need f o r t h e base would p r o b a b l y never be s t r o n g enough. S t i l l , t h e l i m i t e d i n f l u e n c e w h i c h can be a c c o r d e d t o A n g o l a due t o t h e im p o r t a n c e o f a f a c i l i t y t o t h e S o v i e t U n i o n i s i n d i c a t i v e o f t h e two-way n a t u r e o f i n t e r - n a t i o n i n f l u e n c e r e l a t i o n s h i p s . T h i s i n d i c a t o r does not show s i g n i f i c a n t S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n A n g o l a . The S o v i e t Union d i d o b t a i n o v e r f l i g h t , l a n d i n g and p o r t r i g h t s i n An g o l a i n exchange f o r S o v i e t m i l i t a r y a i d . T h i s i n d i c a t e s some S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e o v e r t h e MPLA. However, i t would be an assumption t o say t h a t Neto was s t r o n g l y opposed t o t h e S o v i e t p r e s e n c e and had t o be p r e s s u r e d t o a l l o w i t . T h i s does not seem t o have been t h e c a s e . A S o v i e t base would always be b e n e f i c i a l t o t h e MPLA as a c o n d u i t f o r S o v i e t a i d , goods and p e r s o n n e l s u p p l i e d t o A n g o l a . And based upon t h e h i s t o r y o f S o v i e t - T h i r d World r e l a t i o n s , t h e S o v i e t 84 presence could probably have been re a d i l y eliminated. Furthermore, as Klinghoffer indicates, the MPLA acquired possible influence over the Soviet Union because of the economic, l o g i s t i c and prestige value of the Angolan f a c i l i t i e s to the Soviets. As the Angolan constitution dictated, the Soviets were not allowed to have any m i l i t a r y bases i n Angola. Soviet a c q u i s i t i o n of such a base would have been i n d i c a t i v e of greater Soviet influence since i t i s forbidden i n the con s t i t u t i o n . However, Neto did state that a foreign base might be allowed, as the Cuban presence e s s e n t i a l l y was, i f i t were deemed to be i n the defense interests of Angola. I f t h i s were the actual reason for allowing the base, i t would not be i n d i c a t i v e of s i g n i f i c a n t Soviet influence. 3/ S o v i e t Goals and Objectives As with the Somalia case study, we can apply Albright's l i s t of Soviet goals to examine whether the U.S.S.R. achieved i t s objectives i n Angola. The Soviets did have success i n accomplishing the goals that Albright outlines: ( 1 ) the establishment of bases, (2) the development of a voice i n A f r i c a , (3) undermining the West, and (4) counteracting China. F i r s t , although the Soviets did not obtain permanent bases, they did establish port, o v e r f l i g h t and landing r i g h t s 85 i n A n g o l a . Second, t h e S o v i e t s e s t a b l i s h e d a p r e s e n c e i n A n g o l a t h r o u g h arms and funds s u p p l i e d t o t h e MPLA and t h r o u g h t h e i r r o l e i n g e t t i n g t h e Cuban t r o o p s t o A n g o l a t o f i g h t i n s u p p o r t o f t h e MPLA. T h i r d , t h r o u g h i t s s u p p o r t o f t h e MPLA, t h e S o v i e t Union s u c c e s s f u l l y undermined t h e West, m a i n l y t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , who s u p p o r t e d UNITA. E s s e n t i a l l y , t h e S o v i e t s r e p l a c e d t h e American presence o f c o l o n i a l A n g o l a . F o u r t h , C h i n a was n o t a b l e t o c o u n t e r t h e S o v i e t a b i l i t y t o p r o v i d e arms and a d v i s e r s . Furthermore, C h i n a was d i s c r e d i t e d because o f i t s s u p p o r t o f t h e FNLA and i t s f a i l u r e t o r e c o g n i z e t h e MPLA government.(117) Thus, a c c o r d i n g t o A l b r i g h t ' s g u i d e l i n e s , t h e S o v i e t s were v e r y s u c c e s s f u l i n A n g o l a . I n t h i s case s t u d y I am m a i n t a i n i n g t h a t A l b r i g h t ' s o u t l i n e o f S o v i e t g o a l s i n A f r i c a i s a c l o s e a p p r o x i m a t i o n o f t h e S o v i e t Union's g o a l s i n A n g o l a . These a r e g o a l s o f a v e r y g e n e r a l n a t u r e which c o u l d be pursued by t h e S o v i e t s when t h e o p p o r t u n i t y a r o s e , as i t d i d i n A n g o l a . The S o v i e t U n i o n t o o k an ad hoc approach which had m i l i t a r y a i d as i t s f o u n d a t i o n . There was no grand s t r a t e g y t o S o v i e t p o l i c y i n A n g o l a . I n i t i a l l y , t h e S o v i e t s a i d e d t h e MPLA l i b e r a t i o n movement as p a r t o f i t s g e n e r a l p o l i c y o f b a c k i n g a n t i - c o l o n i a l c h a l l e n g e s t o t h e s t a t u s quo. S i n c e t h e MPLA d i d n o t a c h i e v e much s u c c e s s a g a i n s t t h e Port u g u e s e c o l o n i a l r e g i m e , t h e S o v i e t s c u t o f f t h e s u p p l y o f arms and funds i n 1974. The S o v i e t s were caught o f f guard by t h e P o r t u g u e s e coup and t h e r e s u l t a n t p r o c l a m a t i o n o f Angolan independence. H a v i n g 86 stopped funding the MPLA, Soviet r e l a t i o n s with Neto and the MPLA were i n disarray at the time. The Soviets had to quickly r e - e s t a b l i s h t h e i r connection with the MPLA. Thus, as the opportunity presented i t s e l f , the Soviet Union again attempted to influence the Angolan s i t u a t i o n . The Soviet Union did accomplish some important objectives i n Angola. However, the question i s whether t h i s Soviet success translated into influence. The Soviet and Cuban presence was b e n e f i c i a l to the MPLA and not established against i t s wishes. The MPLA needed the m i l i t a r y a i d and t r a i n i n g that the Soviets provided. Certainly, t h i s MPLA need gave the Soviets some influence within Angola. To support a conclusion of s i g n i f i c a n t Soviet influence i n Angola based upon Soviet goal achievement, i t needs to be shown that the Soviet goals were achieved against the wishes of President Neto. This was not the case; Neto entered into a r e l a t i o n s h i p with the Soviets because of i t s benefits to him and the MPLA, not because of Soviet influence. The Soviets were eager to aid the MPLA. Neto was eager to receive the aid. Thus, he pursued h i s goals as the Soviets pursued t h e i r s . Rather than c o n t r o l l i n g the s i t u a t i o n through influence, the Soviets took advantage of an opportunity which presented i t s e l f and established a mutually b e n e f i c i a l r e l a t i o n s h i p with Neto and the MPLA. 87 4/ Attitudes and Perceptions Due t o a l a c k o f i n f o r m a t i o n I am u n a b l e t o a p p l y t h i s i n d i c a t o r o f i n f l u e n c e t o t h e case s t u d y . 5/ Quantitative Measures of Trade, Aid and Personnel The S o v i e t Union began t o s u p p l y t h e MPLA w i t h s m a l l amounts o f arms and funds i n 1964. The i n e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f t h e MPLA as a l i b e r a t i o n movement l e d t o a slowdown i n t h e S o v i e t s u p p l y o f a s s i s t a n c e i n 1971. Then i n e a r l y 1974 S o v i e t a i d was c o m p l e t e l y c u t o f f . The t o t a l S o v i e t a s s i s t a n c e p r i o r t o 1975 was about $54 m i l l i o n . ( 1 1 8 ) A c c o r d i n g t o K l i n g h o f f e r , t h e S o v i e t s p r o b a b l y s topped t h e f l o w o f arms and fu n d s because o f D a n i e l Chipenda's c h a l l e n g e t o Neto's l e a d e r s h i p . I t was u n c l e a r who would w i n t h e l e a d e r s h i p s t r u g g l e , so t h e S o v i e t s t o o k a w a i t - a n d - s e e a t t i t u d e . ( 1 1 9 ) W i t h t h e Port u g u e s e coup and t h e r e s u l t a n t impending A n g o l a n independence, t h e S o v i e t Union began t o s u p p l y e x t e n s i v e m i l i t a r y a i d t o t h e MPLA i n September 1975. The S o v i e t U n i o n d e l i v e r e d a p p r o x i m a t e l y $300 m i l l i o n i n arms from March 1975 u n t i l t h e end o f most o f t h e f i g h t i n g i n F e b r u a r y 1976.(120) The S o v i e t s a l s o p l a y e d a major r o l e i n t r a n s p o r t i n g and e q u i p p i n g t h e Cuban t r o o p s w h i c h were so v a l u a b l e i n a i d i n g t h e MPLA t o s e c u r e dominance i n 88 Angola.(121) However, S o v i e t economic a i d t o A n g o l a has been m i n i m a l . From 1975 t o 1982, t h e S o v i e t U n i o n o f f e r e d A n g o l a $40 m i l l i o n o f economic a i d , o f w h i c h o n l y about h a l f was a c t u a l l y d i s b u r s e d . ( 1 2 2 ) A f t e r A n golan independence, t h e S o v i e t Union and A n g o l a d e v e l o p e d a f a i r l y e x t e n s i v e t r a d e r e l a t i o n s h i p . The S o v i e t U n i o n has e x p o r t e d t o A n gola machinery and t r a n s p o r t equipment such as p l a n e s , t r u c k s and c a r s , and i m p o r t e d c o f f e e . A n g o l a and t h e S o v i e t Union s i g n e d a f i s h i n g agreement i n A p r i l 1977 w h i c h i n v o l v e d t h e exchange o f f i s h i n g equipment ( i n c l u d i n g s h i p s and t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e ) f o r f i s h i n g r i g h t s i n A n g o l a n w a t e r s . The S o v i e t s a l s o p l e d g e d t o h e l p w i t h t h e b u i l d i n g and improvement o f t h e Angolan f i s h i n g p o r t s . Numerous o t h e r agreements were s i g n e d — f o r sugar, a g r i c u l t u r e , m i n i n g and so on, y e t t h e Cuban p r e s e n c e was much more n o t i c e a b l e t h a n t h a t o f t h e S o v i e t s . ( 1 2 3 ) I n J a n u a r y 1982, t h e S o v i e t Union and A n g o l a s i g n e d a major t r a d e and a i d p a c t w o r t h a p p r o x i m a t e l y $2 b i l l i o n . The p a c t i n c l u d e d a t e n - y e a r economic c o - o p e r a t i o n agreement w h i c h c o n t a i n e d a c l a u s e p l e d g i n g f u r t h e r c o - o p e r a t i o n i n o t h e r a r e a s and a S o v i e t commitment of f u r t h e r m i l i t a r y a i d . A more s p e c i f i c f i v e - y e a r t r a d e , economic and t e c h n i c a l a c c o r d was a l s o s i g n e d a t t h e same time.(124) A l t h o u g h t r a d e between Angola and CMEA s t a t e s i n c r e a s e d , A n g o l a ' s t r a d e , based l a r g e l y upon o i l e x p o r t s , remained g e a r e d s t r o n g l y towards t h e Western n a t i o n s . Even a f t e r t e n 89 y e a r s o f independence, t r a d e w i t h Western c o u n t r i e s s t i l l a c c o u n t e d f o r more t h a n 70 p e r c e n t o f A n g o l a ' s t o t a l t r a d e . Trade between A n g o l a and t h e s o c i a l i s t c o u n t r i e s has n e v e r exceeded 10 p e r c e n t of A n g o l a ' s t o t a l t r a d e . ( 1 2 5 ) The MPLA's need f o r S o v i e t m i l i t a r y a i d and Cuban t r o o p a s s i s t a n c e gave t h e S o v i e t Union a major p r e s e n c e i n A n g o l a . T h i s need was most pronounced d u r i n g t h e t i m e l e a d i n g up t o and j u s t a f t e r Angolan independence, but c o n t i n u e d as l o n g as t h e MPLA f a c e d i n t e r n a l o r e x t e r n a l o p p o s i t i o n . Of p a r t i c u l a r s i g n i f i c a n c e were t h e Cuban t r o o p s which a i d e d t h e MPLA i n i t s r i s e t o power and ensured Neto's r e t e n t i o n o f power d u r i n g t h e N i t i s t r e v o l t . We might assume t h a t t h i s r e l i a n c e upon t h e Cuban f o r c e s g u a r a n t e e d t h e S o v i e t s i n f l u e n c e i n A n g o l a . The t e r m o f t e n used t o r e f e r t o Cuban f o r c e s , p r o x i e s , i m p l i e s a s u b s e r v i e n c e t o t h e S o v i e t s . W i t h t h e A n g o l a n government dependent upon a Cuban f o r c e s u b s e r v i e n t t o t h e S o v i e t U n i o n , t h e S o v i e t s s h o u l d have s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e w i t h i n A n g o l a . However, K l i n g h o f f e r s u g g e s t s something q u i t e d i f f e r e n t . He s t a t e s t h a t t h e "Cubans were u s e f u l t o Neto as a b u f f e r t o t h e S o v i e t s . . . . " ( 1 2 6 ) As mentioned i n t h e Domestic D i s s o n a n c e s e c t i o n , t h e Cubans appeared t o have a c t e d i n d e p e n d e n t l y o f t h e S o v i e t Union i n t h e i r s u p p o r t o f Neto d u r i n g t h e N i t i s t r e v o l t . The S o v i e t s f a i l e d t o g i v e Neto even v e r b a l s u p p o r t d u r i n g , and i m m e d i a t e l y a f t e r , t h e coup a t t e m p t . R a t h e r t h a n t a k i n g t h e i n i t i a t i v e , t h e S o v i e t s t o o k a more r e a c t i v e , w a i t and see approach, as t h e y d i d d u r i n g t h e l e a d e r s h i p s t r u g g l e 90 between Neto and D a n i e l Chipenda. On the o t h e r hand, the Cubans were i n s t r u m e n t a l i n d e f e a t i n g the N i t i s t s . The Cubans had a g r e a t e r impact upon the s i t u a t i o n than the S o v i e t s . At the time of independence, Angola s u f f e r e d from a "shortage of s k i l l e d and managerial manpower, r e s u l t i n g from the mass exodus of Portuguese s e t t l e r s , who had monopolized a l l such s k i l l s d u r i n g the c o l o n i a l p e r i o d . 1 1 (127) Thus, S o v i e t s u p p l i e d personnel played a major r o l e i n the newly independent Angola. A f t e r the war, t h e r e were an e s t i m a t e d 500 S o v i e t m i l i t a r y a d v i s e r s and 750 economic and c u l t u r a l a d v i s e r s i n Angola.(128) The Times r e p o r t e d on June 9, 1976 t h a t S o v i e t a d v i s e r s had " d i r e c t and e x c l u s i v e " c o n t r o l of the Angolan Defence M i n i s t r y . ( 1 2 9 ) A c c o r d i n g t o Vanneman and James, "The Deputy Defence m i n i s t e r , S e r g e i Sokolov, v i s i t e d the country i n December 1977 t o s e t the stage f o r a S o v i e t takeover of a l l Angolan m i l i t a r y i n t e l l i g e n c e ; and i n 1978, 12 Russian g e n e r a l s assumed r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r m i l i t a r y p l a n n i n g , which amounts t o v i r t u a l command over the 14,000 Cuban t r o o p s there."(130) Cubans s u p e r v i s e d the M i n i s t r y of the I n t e r i o r and the powerful D i r e c t o r a t e of I n t e l l i g e n c e and S e c u r i t y . East German a d v i s e r s took over d i r e c t i o n of the government's i n t e r n a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n and Romanian a d v i s e r s d i d the same f o r the a g r i c u l t u r a l program and the development of n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s . There was a l s o j o i n t Soviet-Cuban c o n t r o l of the M i n i s t r y of Finance and the Bank of Angola.(131) Thus, S o v i e t , Cuban and E a s t European p e r s o n n e l e s t a b l i s h e d t h e m s e l v e s i n key p o s i t i o n s o f t h e A n g o l a n government. The l a r g e number of p r o m i n e n t l y p l a c e d E a s t e r n B l o c a d v i s e r s i n A n g o l a p r o b a b l y gave t h e S o v i e t U n i o n i n f l u e n c e because t h e y c o u l d d i r e c t l y a f f e c t t h e r u n n i n g o f t h e MPLA government. Even w i t h o u t b e i n g i n p o s i t i o n s o f e x e c u t i v e power, t h e MPLA r e l i a n c e upon S o v i e t and o t h e r E a s t e r n b l o c p e r s o n n e l must have g i v e n t h e S o v i e t Union i n f l u e n c e i n A n g o l a . A d e c i s i o n - m a k e r i s i n f l u e n c e d by t h e b u r e a u c r a t i c o r g a n i z a t i o n o f w h i c h he o r she i s a p a r t . The b u r e a u c r a c y i s t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k e r ' s main s o u r c e of i n f o r m a t i o n and p o l i c y o p t i o n s . E a s t e r n b l o c p e r s o n n e l w i t h i n t h e government c o u l d push p o l i c y o p t i o n s f a v o u r a b l e t o t h e S o v i e t U n i o n and down-p l a y o r d e n i g r a t e t h o s e u n f a v o u r a b l e t o t h e U.S.S.R. The h i g h e r up i n t h e power s t r u c t u r e t h a t t h e E a s t e r n b l o c a d v i s e r s a r e p l a c e d , t h e g r e a t e r t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . Y e t , i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o d e t e r m i n e t h e e x t e n t o f t h i s i n f l u e n c e s i n c e I do not have i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g s p e c i f i c i n c i d e n t s o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e t h r o u g h t h e f o r e i g n p e r s o n n e l i n A n g o l a . The u l t i m a t e r e i n s o f power r e s t e d w i t h t h e r u l i n g e l i t e , i n t h i s c a s e P r e s i d e n t Neto and t h e C e n t r a l Committee o f t h e MPLA. I t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t Neto would have a l l o w e d h i s power t o be u s u r p e d by f o r e i g n p e r s o n n e l r e g a r d l e s s o f t h e i r v a l u e t o t h e r u n n i n g o f t h e Angolan n a t i o n . Neto's r e t e n t i o n o f power would t a k e precedence over a l l e l s e . As we have seen i n 92 n a t i o n s such as S o m a l i a and Egypt, t h e a p p a r e n t i n f i l t r a t i o n o f E a s t e r n b l o c p e r s o n n e l w i t h i n a T h i r d World n a t i o n may be q u i c k l y e l i m i n a t e d . S t i l l , o f t h e e n t i t i e s t h a t c o m p r i s e t h i s i n d i c a t o r , E a s t e r n b l o c p e r s o n n e l i n A n g o l a gave t h e S o v i e t U n i o n t h e g r e a t e s t p o t e n t i a l f o r i n f l u e n c e . 6/ The T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n On October 8, 1976, Angola became t h e f i r s t sub-Saharan A f r i c a n s t a t e t o s i g n a T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n w i t h t h e S o v i e t Union. The t r e a t y c a l l e d f o r S o v i e t - A n g o l a n m i l i t a r y c o - o p e r a t i o n and t h e c o - o r d i n a t i o n o f t h e i r p o s i t i o n s s h o u l d t h e r e be a t h r e a t t o peace. As w i t h o t h e r T r e a t i e s o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n , t h e r e was no e x p l i c i t d e f e n s e commitment by e i t h e r n a t i o n . From t h e S o v i e t v i e w p o i n t , t h e t r e a t y was a method f o r d e v e l o p i n g c l o s e r S o v i e t - A n g o l a n r e l a t i o n s . I t was d e s c r i b e d by TASS as b e i n g aimed a t b r o a d e n i n g P a r t y c o n t a c t s a t a l l l e v e l s and p r o v i d i n g f o r "comradely exchanges o f v i e w s " on a l l q u e s t i o n s o f mutual i n t e r e s t . Arrangements were made f o r r e g u l a r exchanges o f d e l e g a t i o n s ; f o r c o - o p e r a t i o n i n t h e t r a i n i n g o f P a r t y c a d r e s and f o r t h e c o n d u c t i n g o f j o i n t r e s e a r c h i n t o " t o p i c a l problems o f contemporary s o c i a l development"; t h e cementing o f c o n t a c t s between P a r t y p r e s s o rgans and o t h e r s e c t i o n s o f t h e mass media; and t h e p r o m o t i n g 93 o f f r i e n d l y r e l a t i o n s between " p u b l i c o r g a n i z a t i o n s " ( i . e . t r a d e u n i o n s , c u l t u r a l groups, e t c e t e r a ) i n t h e two c o u n t r i e s . I t was a l s o agreed t h a t t h e r u l i n g p a r t i e s o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n and A n g o l a s h o u l d each y e a r implement p r a c t i c a l p l a n s and measures o f c o - o p e r a t i o n and t h a t m i l i t a r y c o -o p e r a t i o n s h o u l d a l s o be f u r t h e r d e v e l o p e d i n t h e i n t e r e s t s o f s t r e n g t h e n i n g A n g o l a ' s "defence c a p a c i t y . " ( 1 3 2 ) Thus, t h e S o v i e t s t h e m s e l v e s emphasised t h e mutual b e n e f i t s o f t h e t r e a t y . A l t h o u g h t h e t r e a t y i n d i c a t e s c l o s e r S o v i e t - A n g o l a n r e l a t i o n s , i t does not guarantee a c o n t i n u e d S o v i e t - A n g o l a n f r i e n d s h i p . As K l i n g h o f f e r s t a t e s , " F r i e n d s h i p t r e a t i e s have n o t n e c e s s a r i l y s i g n i f i e d a s t r o n g o r permanent a t t a c h m e n t between t h e S o v i e t Union and a T h i r d World s t a t e as s e v e r a l have been s h o r t - l i v e d o r r e n d e r e d moribund. The S o v i e t U n i o n and A n g o l a now have f r a t e r n a l r e l a t i o n s but t h e t a l e o f C a i n and A b e l has never been f o r g o t t e n t h r o u g h out r e c o r d e d h i s t o r y . " ( 1 3 3 ) The T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n i s i n d i c a t i v e o f f r i e n d l y r e l a t i o n s between t h e S o v i e t U n i o n and A n g o l a . I t a l l o w s t h e S o v i e t Union t o have a v o i c e i n A n g o l a n a f f a i r s t h r o u g h v a r i o u s c h a n n e l s . However, t h e b e n e f i t s o f t h e t r e a t y a r e m u t u a l and t h e commitments a r e l i m i t e d and vague. T h e r e f o r e , t h e t r e a t y i s i n d i c a t i v e o f l i m i t e d , v e r y g e n e r a l S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . 94 7/ A Vanguard Party The MPLA has always had a M a r x i s t f o u n d a t i o n , w e l l -t r a i n e d a d m i n i s t r a t i v e c a d r e s and a m u l t i r a c i a l and t r a n s t r i b a l p e r s p e c t i v e . From i t s i n c e p t i o n , i t i n c l u d e d many m u l a t t o e s ( m e s t i c o s ) , a s s i m i l a t e d b l a c k s ( a s s i m i l a d o s ) and w h i t e s , and had c l o s e r t i e s t o t h e P o r t u g u e s e c o l o n i a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n t h a n t h e two o t h e r l i b e r a t i o n movements. These f a c t o r s h e l p e d a t t r a c t S o v i e t and Cuban s u p p o r t f o r t h e MPLA.(134) A f t e r World War I I , t h e Port u g u e s e Communist P a r t y s t a r t e d t o o r g a n i z e an a f f i l i a t e i n A n g o l a w i t h t h e h e l p o f w h i t e communists l i v i n g t h e r e . The P a r t i d o Communisto de A n g o l a was founded i n October 1955. I t l a t e r merged w i t h o t h e r l e f t i s t s t o form t h e P a r t i d o da L u t a U n i d a dos A f r i c a n o s de A n g o l a . There was a f u r t h e r merging o f l e f t i s t s w i t h t h e c r e a t i o n o f t h e MPLA i n December 1956. Thus, t h e MPLA i n c l u d e d communists from i t s v e r y i n c e p t i o n . ( 1 3 5 ) P resumably, t h i s h i s t o r i c a l M a r x i s t c o n n e c t i o n i n c r e a s e d t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e o ver t h e MPLA. C e r t a i n l y , t h e M a r x i s t n a t u r e o f t h e MPLA made i t more l i k e l y t o f o l l o w p o l i c i e s s i m i l a r t o t h o s e o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . However, as t h e h i s t o r y o f S o v i e t - C h i n e s e r e l a t i o n s , f o r example, shows, t h e bonds o f Marxism have never g u a r a n t e e d t h e S o v i e t U n i o n i n f l u e n c e o v e r a p a r t y o r government. A t t h e F e b r u a r y 1968 MPLA c o n f e r e n c e a t D o l i s i e i n Congo-95 B r a z z a v i l l e , i t was d e c i d e d t h a t t h e MPLA would become a r e v o l u t i o n a r y p a r t y "once s u f f i c i e n t c a d r e s had been e d u c a t e d " and t h a t a t some t i m e i n t h e f u t u r e t h e movement would be t r a n s f o r m e d i n t o a vanguard p a r t y . ( 1 3 6) However, Neto p l a y e d down t h e M a r x i s t elements o f MPLA p o l i c i e s and emphasised Angolan independence. I n August 1972, he s t a t e d t h a t t h e MPLA " i s s o c i a l i s t because we don't i n t e n d t o a l l o w e i t h e r A n g o lans o r f o r e i g n e r s t o e x p l o i t o t h e r s i n t h e country...We t h i n k t h a t i d e o l o g i c a l l y we f o l l o w n o t n e c e s s a r i l y t h e communist o r M a r x i s t l i n e b u t we f o l l o w t h e s o c i a l i s t l i n e , w i t h j u s t i c e f o r a l l . " ( 1 3 7 ) S h o r t l y a f t e r t h e c i v i l war, Prime M i n i s t e r Nascimento s t a t e d , "Our p e o p l e have brought o f f a s o c i a l i s t r e v o l u t i o n , and we a r e f i r m l y r e s o l v e d t o b u i l d t h e f i r s t s o c i a l i s t s t a t e i n t h e A f r i c a n c o n t i n e n t . " ( 1 3 8 ) A st a t e m e n t from t h e MPLA P o l i t b u r o m a r k i n g t h e f i r s t a n n i v e r s a r y o f t h e P e o p l e ' s R e p u b l i c o f A n g o l a r e f e r r e d t o t h e c o u n t r y as a " r e v o l u t i o n a r y d e m o c r a t i c d i c t a t o r s h i p o f t h e w o r k e r s , p e a s a n t s , r e v o l u t i o n a r y i n t e l l e c t u a l s and p r o g r e s s i v e s e c t o r s o f t h e p e t t y b o u r g e o i s i e . " ( 1 3 9 ) T h i s " r e v o l u t i o n a r y d e m o c r a t i c d i c t a t o r s h i p " was t o be l e d by a vanguard p a r t y "formed from t h e most i d e o l o g i c a l l y and p o l i t i c a l l y r e l i a b l e c a d r e s o f t h e l i b e r a t i o n movement."(140) I t was c l e a r t h a t , as S o m e r v i l l e s t a t e s , " the MPLA had no i n t e n t i o n o f s h a r i n g power w i t h o t h e r p o l i t i c a l f o r c e s . " ( 1 4 1 ) I n t h e autumn o f 1977, t h e MPLA's C e n t r a l Committee 96 announced a "Program o f A c t i o n " w hich c a l l e d f o r t h e t r a n s f o r m a t i o n o f t h e MPLA i n t o a vanguard p a r t y based upon s c i e n t i f i c s o c i a l i s t p r i n c i p l e s . " A f r i c a n s o c i a l i s m " was e x p l i c i t l y r e j e c t e d because o f i t s f a i l u r e t o r e c o g n i z e c l a s s d i s t i n c t i o n s . ( 1 4 2 ) Supposedly, s c i e n t i f i c s o c i a l i s m p r o v i d e d an i d e o l o g y s u i t a b l e f o r d e a l i n g w i t h t h e A n g o l a n p o l i t i c a l s i t u a t i o n . T h e o r e t i c a l l y , Marxism's c l a s s b a s i s p r o v i d e d a way o f c i r c u m v e n t i n g t h e e t h n i c and t r i b a l d i v i s i o n s w h i c h p l a g u e d A n g o l a . The MPLA a t t e m p t e d t o u n i t e A n g o l a n s by p l a y i n g down t h e t r i b a l d i v i s i o n s o f t h e n a t i o n and e m p h a s i s i n g i t s c l a s s s t r u c t u r e . A t t h e F i r s t P a r t y Congress i n December 1977, t h e MPLA was r e c o n s t i t u t e d as t h e MPLA-Party o f Labour.(143) The S o v i e t s c o n t i n u a l l y p r a i s e d t h e p r o g r e s s o f t h e MPLA, c a l l i n g i t a " r e v o l u t i o n a r y d e m o c r a t i c p a r t y " and i t s i d e o l o g y " v e r y c l o s e t o Ma r x i s m - L e n i n i s m . " A n g o l a was c r e d i t e d w i t h h a v i n g f o l l o w e d t h e " s o c i a l i s t p a t h o f development."(144) The M a r x i s t - L e n i n i s t c h a r a c t e r o f t h e MPLA l e d t o f r i e n d l y MPLA-Soviet r e l a t i o n s . T h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p d e v e l o p e d w i t h t h e a l l i a n c e o f t h e MPLA and t h e S o v i e t U n i o n d u r i n g t h e A n g o l a n War. A f t e r t h e MPLA e s t a b l i s h e d i t s e l f as t h e A n g o l a n government, t h e Soviet-MPLA r e l a t i o n s h i p s o l i d i f i e d as t h e MPLA embarked upon t h e p a t h o f s c i e n t i f i c s o c i a l i s m . Y e t , Neto d i d n o t b l i n d l y f o l l o w t h e p r i n c i p l e s o f S o v i e t s c i e n t i f i c s o c i a l i s m . S c i e n t i f i c s o c i a l i s m was a p p l i e d p r a g m a t i c a l l y i n A n g o l a . For example, Neto was v e r y c a r e f u l 97 i n d e a l i n g w i t h t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r and d i d n o t a t t e m p t t o n a t i o n a l i z e o r c o l l e c t i v i z e land.(145) A l t h o u g h Neto t r a n s f o r m e d t h e MPLA i n t o a vanguard, he d i d n o t c a l l t h e MPLA communist nor adv o c a t e a t r a n s i t i o n beyond s o c i a l i s m t o communism.(146) R a t h e r t h a n a s i g n o f s u b s e r v i e n c e t o t h e S o v i e t Union, t h e t r a n s f o r m a t i o n o f t h e MPLA i n t o a vanguard p a r t y was i n k e e p i n g w i t h t h e Neto's p r a g m a t i c , e v o l u t i o n a r y approach t o Marxism. G i v e n t h e h i s t o r y o f Soviet-MPLA r e l a t i o n s , i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t Neto would have become so complacent t h a t he would have a l l o w e d h i m s e l f t o f a l l under t h e c o n t r o l o f t h e S o v i e t s . The S o v i e t d i s c o n t i n u a t i o n o f m i l i t a r y a i d t o t h e MPLA i n 1974 and t h e i r l a c k o f s u p p o r t f o r Neto d u r i n g t h e N i t i s t r e v o l t would have made any l e a d e r wary o f s i g n i f i c a n t l y c l o s e r r e l a t i o n s w i t h t h e S o v i e t Union. Neto was an e x p e r i e n c e d p o l i t i c a l l e a d e r who knew how t o m a i n t a i n and c o n s o l i d a t e h i s power p o s i t i o n . He was a p o l i t i c a l s u r v i v o r who was a b l e t o e i t h e r e l i m i n a t e o r n e u t r a l i s e h i s f o e s . F o r example, he fended o f f t h e c h a l l e n g e s t o h i s l e a d e r s h i p from Chipenda and A l v e s . He a l s o i n c r e a s e d h i s power by amending t h e A n g o l a n c o n s t i t u t i o n so t h a t he would p r e s i d e o v e r c a b i n e t m e e t i n g s i n s t e a d o f Prime M i n i s t e r Nascimento.(147) Neto d i d n o t f i g h t so l o n g and h a r d t o r e t a i n c o n t r o l o f t h e MPLA o n l y t o a l l o w h i m s e l f t o be m a n i p u l a t e d by t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . A c c o r d i n g t o K l i n g h o f f e r , t h e " S o v i e t s had d i f f i c u l t y d e a l i n g w i t h Neto on a p e r s o n a l l e v e l due t o h i s s e c r e t i v e s t y l e and 98 i n f l e x i b i l i t y . " ( 1 4 8 ) Neto a l s o m a i n t a i n e d t i e s w i t h t h e West because he d i d not want A n g o l a t o become t o o c l o s e l y a l i g n e d w i t h t h e S o v i e t Union. S i m i l a r t o t h e S o m a l i s i t u a t i o n , s c i e n t i f i c s o c i a l i s m l e g i t i m i z e d t h e MPLA's c r e a t i o n o f a number o f o r g a n i z a t i o n s w h i c h s e r v e d t o m a i n t a i n MPLA c o n t r o l w i t h i n A n g o l a . The P e o p l e ' s Defence O r g a n i z a t i o n was " d e s i g n e d t o u n i t e and b r i n g under p a r t y c o n t r o l many of t h e s e l f - d e f e n s e groups formed by MPLA s u p p o r t e r s i n t h e a f t e r m a t h o f t h e w h i t e b a c k l a s h t h a t f o l l o w e d t h e Po r t u g u e s e r e v o l u t i o n . " ( 1 4 9 ) The A n g o l a n D i r e c t o r a t e o f I n f o r m a t i o n and S e c u r i t y (DISA), t h e A n g o l a n s e c r e t p o l i c e , was e s t a b l i s h e d t o "combat anti-MPLA and a n t i -s t a t e a c t i v i t i e s . " I n 1976, DISA was used by t h e MPLA a g a i n s t t h e l e f t i s t groups A c t i v e R e v o l t and t h e O r g a n i z a t i o n o f A n g o l a n Communists. The MPLA c r e a t e d a Department f o r t h e O r g a n i z a t i o n o f t h e Masses i n o r d e r t o m a i n t a i n c o n t r o l a t t h e neighbourhood and v i l l a g e l e v e l . A l s o , mass o r g a n i z a t i o n s such as t h e Un i o n o f Angolan Workers, MPLA-Youth and t h e O r g a n i z a t i o n o f Angolan Women s e r v e d t h e MPLA p u r p o s e s o f m a i n t a i n i n g c o n t r o l and d i s s e m i n a t i n g i t s p o l i c i e s . ( 1 5 0 ) R a t h e r t h a n an a c q u i e s c e n c e t o S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e , t h e t r a n s f o r m a t i o n o f t h e MPLA i n t o a vanguard p a r t y was a d e c i s i o n based upon t h e i n t e r e s t s o f Neto and t h e MPLA. Neto formed a vanguard p a r t y because t h e MPLA was a M a r x i s t l i b e r a t i o n movement, not because o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . I n c o n t r a s t t o S i a d B a r r e " s vanguard p a r t y , t h e MPLA's 99 t r a n s f o r m a t i o n was a n a t u r a l p r o g r e s s i o n f o r a movement w h i c h was M a r x i s t from i t s i n c e p t i o n . L i k e S i a d B a r r e , Neto's p o l i t i c a l power was h i s main c o n c e r n . He was n o t about t o e n t r u s t i t t o t h e S o v i e t Union. Thus, t h e t r a n s f o r m a t i o n o f t h e MPLA i n t o a vanguard f o l l o w e d Neto's t i m e t a b l e , n o t t h e S o v i e t U n i o n ' s . C o n c l u s i o n The i n d i c a t o r s o f i n f l u e n c e r e v e a l a s t r o n g S o v i e t impact upon A n g o l a and more i n f l u e n c e t h a n i n S o m a l i a . However, t h e i n d i c a t o r s do not show t h a t t h e S o v i e t s had s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e o v e r Neto and t h e MPLA. The S o v i e t s were g r a n t e d a c c e s s t o An g o l a n f a c i l i t i e s i n exchange f o r m i l i t a r y a i d . I t might be assumed t h a t o n l y t h r o u g h s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e would t h e S o v i e t s be g r a n t e d a c c e s s t o f a c i l i t i e s i n A n g o l a . T h i s i s not n e c e s s a r i l y s o , s i n c e t h e S o v i e t p r e s e n c e was m u t u a l l y b e n e f i c i a l . Neto a l l o w e d t h e S o v i e t p r e s e n c e because i t was i n A n g o l a ' s i n t e r e s t s . A l s o , i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e between S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e and S o v i e t power p r o j e c t i o n . Through a c c e s s t o A n g o l a n f a c i l i t i e s , t h e S o v i e t Union d i d i n c r e a s e i t s power p r o j e c t i o n c a p a b i l i t y . I t i s not e v i d e n t t h a t a t t h e same t i m e t h e S o v i e t Union g a r n e r e d more t h a n l i m i t e d i n f l u e n c e o v e r t h e MPLA. O b v i o u s l y , t h e MPLA was dependent upon S o v i e t 100 m i l i t a r y a i d . Y e t , i t i s not apparent t h a t t h e S o v i e t s were a b l e t o t r a n s l a t e t h i s dependence i n t o e x t e n s i v e i n f l u e n c e . N e i t h e r t h e T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n n or t h e c r e a t i o n o f a vanguard p a r t y r e v e a l e d Neto t o have a c t e d c o n t r a r y t o h i s own o b j e c t i v e s . Only minor i n f l u e n c e can be a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e S o v i e t Union a c c o r d i n g t o t h e s e i n d i c a t o r s . The Domestic Dissonance i n d i c a t o r was more v a l u a b l e t h a n t h e o t h e r i n d i c a t o r s f o r d e t e r m i n i n g S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e i n A n g o l a . The f a i l u r e o f t h e S o v i e t s t o i n f l u e n c e t h e N i t i s t coup a t t e m p t i s s i m i l a r t o , but not as s i g n i f i c a n t a s , t h e S o v i e t f a i l u r e t o p r e v e n t t h e S o m a l i i n v a s i o n o f E t h i o p i a . However, i t i s u n c l e a r t o what e x t e n t t h e S o v i e t U n i o n a c t u a l l y a t t e m p t e d t o i n f l u e n c e t h e N i t i s t r e v o l t . The S o v i e t s may have hoped Neto would be ov e r t h r o w n b u t d i d n o t want t o r i s k b e i n g more d i r e c t l y i n v o l v e d i n t h e p r o c e s s . N o n e t h e l e s s , t h e l a c k o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e upon t h e s i t u a t i o n i s e v i d e n t . W i t h o u t t h e Cuban presence i n An g o l a and t h e S o v i e t m i l i t a r y a i d , i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t t h e MPLA would have been a b l e t o a c h i e v e and m a i n t a i n i t s p o s i t i o n o f power. The MPLA government was a l s o dependent upon t h e s k i l l s o f E a s t e r n b l o c p e r s o n n e l . These dependencies must have g i v e n t h e S o v i e t U n i o n i n f l u e n c e o v e r t h e MPLA. However, t h e Cubans a l s o a c t e d as a b u f f e r between t h e MPLA and t h e S o v i e t s . T h i s a l l o w e d Neto t o make use o f s u b s t a n t i a l m i l i t a r y s u p p o r t w i t h o u t h a v i n g t o r e l y d i r e c t l y upon t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . Thus, Neto 101 r e t a i n e d h i s independence despite the f r a g i l i t y of h i s regime. Despite the Soviet-MPLA i d e o l o g i c a l connection, Neto was wary of being too c l o s e l y a l i g n e d w i t h the S o v i e t Union. He c o n s o l i d a t e d h i s power by s h i f t i n g more pro-Soviet members of the MPLA t o p o s i t i o n s of l e s s i n f l u e n c e w i t h i n the government. The S o v i e t s a l s o had d i f f i c u l t y d e a l i n g w i t h Neto because of h i s independence. He a p p l i e d s c i e n t i f i c s o c i a l i s m i n Angola p r a g m a t i c a l l y . Although the Soviet Union achieved more i n f l u e n c e i n Angola than i n Somalia, t h i s i n f l u e n c e was not u n l i m i t e d . Since Neto d i d not act contrary t o h i s own o b j e c t i v e s on an issue of importance t o him, the So v i e t Union d i d not have s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e i n Angola. 102 CHAPTER 6 — CONCLUSION From World War I I u n t i l about t h e mid-197 0s, t h e S o v i e t U n i o n was i n t h e f a v o u r a b l e p o s i t i o n o f c h a l l e n g i n g t h e s t a t u s quo on t h e s i d e o f t h e " p r o g r e s s i v e " f o r c e s o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l system. As t h e p r e - W o r l d War I I c o l o n i a l o r d e r d i s i n t e g r a t e d , t h e r e were a m y r i a d o f o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r t h e S o v i e t Union t o advance i t s p o s i t i o n i n t h e T h i r d World. However, not u n t i l t h e 1970s d i d t h e S o v i e t U n i o n p o s s e s t h e c a p a b i l i t i e s t o t a k e f u l l advantage o f t h e s e o p p o r t u n i t i e s . W i t h i t s development o f an improved power p r o j e c t i o n c a p a b i l i t y , t h e S o v i e t Union appeared t o g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e i t s i n f l u e n c e t h r o u g h o u t t h e T h i r d World. A t t h e same t i m e , t h e S o v i e t Union e s s e n t i a l l y r e ached n u c l e a r p a r i t y w i t h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , t h e r e b y s e c u r i n g i t s e l f t h e s t a t u r e e q u i v a l e n t t o i t s superpower c o m p e t i t o r . However, as i t became a p p a r e n t t h a t S o v i e t s o c i a l i s m d i d not en a b l e T h i r d W o r l d n a t i o n s t o l e a p f o r w a r d t o t h e l e v e l o f economic and p o l i t i c a l development o f t h e deve l o p e d w o r l d , t h e v a l u e o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n as an i d e o l o g i c a l l e a d e r d e c l i n e d r a p i d l y . I n c o n t r a s t t o t h e e x p a n s i o n o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e o f t h e 1970s, t h e 1980s found t h e S o v i e t Union bogged down i n A f g h a n i s t a n and s t r u g g l i n g t o h o l d onto t h e advances i t had made i n t h e p r e v i o u s decade. The 1980s l a c k e d t h e o p p o r t u n i t i e s o f t h e 1970s f o r t h e S o v i e t s t o p u r s u e w h i c h t h e 103 d i s i n t e g r a t i o n o f t h e P o r t u g u e s e c o l o n i a l empire had c r e a t e d . Under t h e l e a d e r s h i p of Gorbachev, t h e p o l i t i c a l l y and e c o n o m i c a l l y t r o u b l e d S o v i e t Union began a r e t r e a t from t h e T h i r d W orld. The most n o t a b l e example of t h i s r e t r e a t was t h e S o v i e t w i t h d r a w a l o f i t s t r o o p s from A f g h a n i s t a n i n 1989. T h i s t e n y e a r war was an i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y e m b a r r a s s i n g , i n t e r n a l l y d e m o r a l i s i n g and e c o n o m i c a l l y c o s t l y f a i l u r e f o r t h e S o v i e t U n i o n . Gorbachev r e f e r r e d t o t h e A f g h a n i s t a n war as a " b l e e d i n g s o r e . " ( 1 5 1 ) For t h e f i r s t t i m e , t h e S o v i e t U n i o n used i t s own t r o o p s t o s u p p o r t a T h i r d World a l l y , o n l y t o f a i l t o s e c u r e v i c t o r y . I n t h e span of about f i f t e e n y e a r s , t h e S o v i e t U n i o n went from t h e peak o f i t s i n f l u e n c e i n t h e T h i r d W o r l d , t o s u f f e r i n g p r o b a b l y i t s g r e a t e s t f a i l u r e i n t h e h i s t o r y o f i t s T h i r d World r e l a t i o n s . There a r e o t h e r examples of t h e S o v i e t U n i o n ' s w i t h d r a w a l from t h e T h i r d World. The S o v i e t Union p r e s s u r e d V i e t n a m t o w i t h d r a w from Kampuchea. The S o v i e t s s u p p o r t e d t h e U.S.-b r o k e r e d t a l k s on t h e independence of Namibia w h i c h saw t h e w i t h d r a w a l o f t h e Cuban t r o o p s i n A n g o l a . The S o v i e t U n i o n encouraged t h e E t h i o p i a n government t o end i t s f i g h t i n g w i t h t h e E r i t r e a n s e p a r a t i s t s . ( 1 5 2 ) The S o v i e t s d i d n o t a t t e m p t t o p r e v e n t t h e FSLN's l o s s o f power t h r o u g h e l e c t i o n s i n N i c a r a g u a . R e c e n t l y , t h e S o v i e t s watched, a l o n g w i t h t h e r e s t o f t h e w o r l d , as t h e M e n g i s t u government f e l l t o t h e r e b e l s . Few, i f any, a n a l y s t s p r e d i c t e d t h e S o v i e t r e t r e a t from 104 t h e T h i r d W orld which has o c c u r r e d . A n a l y s i n g i n t e r - n a t i o n r e l a t i o n s i s d i f f i c u l t enough w i t h o u t h a v i n g t o p r e d i c t t h e f u t u r e . G i v e n t h e l i m i t a t i o n s o f our knowledge and a n a l y s t s 1 p r e s e t n o t i o n s , assumptions w i l l always be made. However, d e s p i t e t h e l a c k o f i n f o r m a t i o n f o r s t u d y i n g i n t e r - n a t i o n i n f l u e n c e , some t h i n g s can be s t a t e d w i t h a h i g h degree o f c e r t a i n t y . By i t s s i m p l e s t d e f i n i t i o n , i n f l u e n c e i s t h e a b i l i t y o f n a t i o n A t o g e t n a t i o n B t o a c t as i t w i s h e s . The t a c t i c s i n v o l v e d i n t h i s p r o c e s s range from s i m p l e p e r s u a s i o n t o t h e use o f f o r c e . However, two key elements d e t e r m i n e t h e e x t e n t o f t h e i n f l u e n c e ; t h e y a r e : (1) t h e im p o r t a n c e o f t h e i s s u e t o n a t i o n B, and (2) t h e c o m p a t i b i l i t y o f t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f n a t i o n A and n a t i o n B. These two f a c t o r s a r e e s s e n t i a l t o d e t e r m i n i n g t h e i n f l u e n c e o f n a t i o n A. My a n a l y s i s o f t h e i n d i c a t o r s o f i n f l u e n c e has r e i n f o r c e d my i n i t i a l b e l i e f t h a t many o f them a r e o f l i m i t e d v a l u e f o r d e t e r m i n i n g S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . The T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n , Q u a n t i t a t i v e Measures o f Trade and A i d , and t h e Vanguard P a r t y g e n e r a l l y r e v e a l o n l y low l e v e l s o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . The S o v i e t A c q u i s i t i o n o f F a c i l i t i e s and S o v i e t G o a l s g e n e r a l l y i n d i c a t e low t o medium l e v e l s o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . A l l o f t h e s e i n d i c a t o r s can r e v e a l a S o v i e t p r e s e n c e w i t h i n t h e T h i r d World n a t i o n w h i c h s h o u l d n o t be equated w i t h S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . J u s t as power does n o t t r a n s l a t e e q u i v a l e n t l y i n t o i n f l u e n c e , n e i t h e r does p r e s e n c e . 105 O f t e n what i s assumed t o be s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e i n v o l v e s m utual b e n e f i t s f o r t h e S o v i e t s and n a t i o n B and/or a l a c k o f commitment t o t h e i s s u e on t h e p a r t o f B. F o r example, i t may be assumed t h a t because t h e S o v i e t U n i o n a c q u i r e s t h e r i g h t s t o f a c i l i t i e s i n n a t i o n B i n exchange f o r S o v i e t m i l i t a r y a i d , i t must have e x t e n s i v e i n f l u e n c e w i t h i n B. T h i s a s s u m p t i o n f a i l s t o t a k e i n t o a c c o u n t t h e m o t i v e s and p e r c e p t i o n s o f B. Perhaps B o n l y needed t o be p e r s u a d e d because i t f e l t t h a t t h e S o v i e t p r e s e n c e was t o i t s b e n e f i t . The m u t u a l l y b e n e f i c i a l exchange o f S o v i e t a i d f o r a base w i t h i n B does n ot mean t h e S o v i e t s would be a b l e t o i n f l u e n c e B's b e h a v i o u r on major p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s , as t h e S o m a l i a c a s e s t u d y shows. The t e m p o r a l n a t u r e o f i n f l u e n c e can mean a q u i c k changeover i n a l l i a n c e s . T h i r d World n a t i o n s have o f t e n been a b l e t o m a n i p u l a t e t h e East-West c o m p e t i t i o n f o r i n f l u e n c e t o s e r v e t h e i r own purposes. They have s u c c e s s f u l l y p l a y e d t h e superpowers a g a i n s t each o t h e r i n o r d e r t o f u l f i l l t h e i r needs and p r e v e n t s u b s e r v i e n c e t o any power. S o m a l i a t o o k m i l i t a r y a i d from t h e S o v i e t Union because i t made t h e b e s t o f f e r . A t t h e same t i m e , S o m a l i a a c c e p t e d Western and Arab economic a i d . I f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s o r t h e Arab n a t i o n s had made t h e b e s t m i l i t a r y a i d o f f e r , i t would p r o b a b l y been a c c e p t e d by S i a d B a r r e . I n b o t h c a s e s t u d i e s , d e s p i t e a p p a r e n t S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i n d i c a t o r s , an e x a m i n a t i o n o f s p e c i f i c 106 i n c i d e n t s r e v e a l e d t h e l i m i t a t i o n s o f t h i s i n f l u e n c e . The S o m a l i i n v a s i o n o f E t h i o p i a and t h e e x p u l s i o n o f t h e S o v i e t s from S o m a l i a showed t h a t t h e S o v i e t Union l a c k e d i n f l u e n c e o v e r t h e B a r r e regime when v i t a l i n t e r e s t s were a t s t a k e . The Cuban independence d u r i n g t h e N i t i s t r e v o l t and t h e f a i l u r e o f t h e S o v i e t s t o p l a y a s i g n i f i c a n t r o l e i n t h e coup a t t e m p t r e v e a l e d t h e l i m i t a t i o n s o f t h e S o v i e t a b i l i t y t o c o n t r o l e v e n t s i n A n g o l a . I n o r d e r t o have a b e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e upon n a t i o n B, we must c l o s e l y examine B. S i n c e S o v i e t - n a t i o n B r e l a t i o n s i n v o l v e two n a t i o n s , i t i s l o g i c a l t h a t b o t h n a t i o n s s h o u l d be examined as r i g o r o u s l y as p o s s i b l e . Many o f t h e i n d i c a t o r s f o c u s upon t h e S o v i e t p e r s p e c t i v e , i g n o r i n g , o r m i n i m i s i n g , t h e r o l e o f n a t i o n B i n t h e i n f l u e n c e r e l a t i o n s h i p . A t t i t u d e s and P e r c e p t i o n s , D omestic D i s s o n a n c e , and P e r s o n n e l have more v a l u e as i n d i c a t o r s o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e because t h e y c o n s i d e r t h e p e r s p e c t i v e o f B. A t t i t u d e s and P e r c e p t i o n s and Domestic D i s s o n a n c e a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y v a l u a b l e because t h e y can r e v e a l b o t h t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f an i s s u e t o B, and B's o b j e c t i v e s . U s i n g t h e s e i n d i c a t o r s , we can det e r m i n e S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e t h r o u g h t h e e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e outcome o f a s p e c i f i c a t t e m p t by t h e S o v i e t U n i o n t o i n f l u e n c e n a t i o n B. The s u c c e s s o r f a i l u r e o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n t o g e t n a t i o n B t o a c t c o n t r a r y t o B's own o b j e c t i v e on an i s s u e o f importance t o B i s t h e d e t e r m i n a n t o f 107 t h e e x t e n t o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . The l i m i t a t i o n o f u s i n g t h e Domestic D i s s o n a n c e , A t t i t u d e s and P e r c e p t i o n s , and t h e r o l e o f E a s t e r n b l o c p e r s o n n e l i s t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f i n f o r m a t i o n from w i t h i n t h e d o m e s t i c p o l i t i c a l system of B. The development o f t e c h n i q u e s f o r t h e g a t h e r i n g o f t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n i s an i m p o r t a n t a r e a f o r f u r t h e r s t u d y . I n p a r t i c u l a r , f u r t h e r a n a l y s i s o f A t t i t u d e s and P e r c e p t i o n s and t h e r o l e o f f o r e i g n p e r s o n n e l i n B would be v e r y v a l u a b l e . I t i s t h e s p e c i f i c S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e a t t e m p t s i n v o l v i n g c o n f l i c t i n g o b j e c t i v e s on i s s u e s o f i m p o r t a n c e t o B a r r e and Neto, t h e S o m a l i i n v a s i o n and t h e N i t i s t coup a t t e m p t r e s p e c t i v e l y , w hich r e v e a l t h e l i m i t a t i o n s o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . Thus, r a t h e r t h a n assuming t h a t t h e s i g n i n g o f a T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n i s a s i g n o f e x t e n s i v e S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e , t h e importance of t h e i s s u e t o n a t i o n B and t h e degree of c o n f l i c t between t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f n a t i o n B and t h e S o v i e t Union need t o be examined. The s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l i n d i c a t o r can be d e t e r m i n e d by t h e c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e s e two f a c t o r s . C e r t a i n i n d i c a t o r s a r e o f l e s s s i g n i f i c a n c e t h a n i s u s u a l l y assumed: t h e T r e a t y o f F r i e n d s h i p and C o - o p e r a t i o n , Vanguard P a r t y , Q u a n t i t a t i v e Measures o f Trade and A i d , and S o v i e t A c q u i s i t i o n o f F a c i l i t i e s . These can i n d i c a t e a s t r o n g S o v i e t p r e s e n c e , and even s u b s t a n t i a l S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . A l t h o u g h t h e i n f l u e n c e i n c r e a s e s w i t h t h e f u l f i l l m e n t o f each i n d i c a t o r , S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e c a nnot be 108 d e m o n s t r a t e d as l o n g as n a t i o n B's v i t a l i n t e r e s t s a r e n o t a t s t a k e . The most v a l u a b l e i n d i c a t o r s a r e A t t i t u d e s and P e r c e p t i o n s , Domestic Dissonance and p o s s i b l y P e r s o n n e l . The use o f t h e s e i n d i c a t o r s i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e a n a l y s i s o f a s p e c i f i c i n c i d e n t o f attempted S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e can d e t e r m i n e t h e e x t e n t o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . The outcome o f t h e i n f l u e n c e a t t e m p t t e l l s us t h e s u c c e s s or f a i l u r e o f t h e S o v i e t U n i o n i n a c h i e v i n g i t s g o a l . The i n d i c a t o r s t e l l us t h e e x t e n t o f t h e S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e g i v e n a S o v i e t s u c c e s s . I n o t h e r words, f i r s t examine a c o n c r e t e attempt by t h e S o v i e t s t o a c h i e v e a g o a l ; f o r example, an attempt t o a c q u i r e a n a v a l f a c i l i t y w i t h i n B o r an attempt t o p r e v e n t B from c a r r y i n g o u t an a c t o f a g g r e s s i o n . G i v e n a S o v i e t s u c c e s s , t h e n , u s i n g t h e i n d i c a t o r s , d e t e r m i n e t h e degree of S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e by a n a l y s i n g t h e i m p o r t a n c e of t h e i s s u e t o B and t h e c o m p a t i b i l i t y o f t h e o b j e c t i v e s of t h e S o v i e t U n i o n and B w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e i n c i d e n t . The key t o a n a l y s i n g i n t e r - n a t i o n i n f l u e n c e i s r e a l i s i n g t h a t i t s e x t e n t can v a r y . I t i s i m p o r t a n t not t o o v e r e s t i m a t e S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e , o r t o equate S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e w i t h S o v i e t c o n t r o l o ver n a t i o n B. The S o v i e t U n i o n was a b l e t o e s t a b l i s h a dependence upon i t s m i l i t a r y a i d by b o t h S o m a l i a and A n g o l a . M a i n l y t h r o u g h t h i s dependence, t h e S o v i e t s g a r n e r e d i n f l u e n c e i n b o t h n a t i o n s . However, t h e S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e was not u n l i m i t e d . The l i m i t a t i o n s o f S o v i e t 109 i n f l u e n c e became e v i d e n t when t h e T h i r d World n a t i o n ' s v i t a l i n t e r e s t s were a t s t a k e . H o p e f u l l y , t h r o u g h c a r e f u l c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e i n d i c a t o r s o f i n f l u e n c e , an a n a l y s t can d i f f e r e n t i a t e between t h e d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s o f S o v i e t i n f l u e n c e . 110 FOOTNOTES 1. K a i H o l s t i , I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s : A Framework f o r A n a l y s i s , F o u r t h E d i t i o n , (Englewood C l i f f s , N.J.: P r e n t i c e H a l l , 1983); A l v i n R u b i n s t e i n , " A s s e s s i n g I n f l u e n c e as a Problem i n P o l i c y A n a l y s i s , " i n S o v i e t and C h i n e s e I n f l u e n c e i n t h e T h i r d World, ed. A l v i n R u b i n s t e i n (New York: P r a e g e r P u b l i s h e r s , 1975), pp. 18-22; D a v i d S i n g e r , " I n t e r - n a t i o n I n f l u e n c e : A Formal Model," A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e Review 57 (2) (1963), pp. 420-430. 2. C o l i n Legum, " A f r i c a n O u t l o o k s Toward t h e U.S.S.R.," i n Communism i n A f r i c a , ed. D a v i d A l b r i g h t ( B l o o m i n g t o n : I n d i a n a U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1980), p. 7. 3. H o l s t i , I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s , p. 145. 4. I b i d . , p. 145. 5. I b i d . , p. 154. 6. R u b i n s t e i n , S o v i e t and Ch i n e s e I n f l u e n c e , p. 8. 7. H o l s t i , I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s , p. 145. 8. R u b i n s t e i n , S o v i e t and Ch i n e s e I n f l u e n c e , p. 10. 9. H o l s t i , I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s , p. 157. 10. I b i d . , p. 155. 11. R u b i n s t e i n , S o v i e t and C h i n e s e I n f l u e n c e , p. 11. 12. R o b e r t L e g v o l d , " S o v i e t and Ch i n e s e I n f l u e n c e i n B l a c k A f r i c a " i n S o v i e t and C h i n e s e I n f l u e n c e i n t h e T h i r d W o r l d , ed. A l v i n R u b i n s t e i n (New York: P r a e g e r P u b l i s h e r s , 1975) p. 155. 13. R o b e r t Keohane and Joseph Nye, Power and I n t e r d e p e n d e n c e : W o r l d P o l i t i c s i n T r a n s i t i o n (Boston: L i t t l e , Brown, 1977), pp. 165-218. 14. R u b i n s t e i n , S o v i e t and C h i n e s e I n f l u e n c e , p. 11. 15. I b i d . , p. 12. 16. P e t e r Vanneman and W. M a r t i n James, S o v i e t F o r e i g n P o l i c y i n S o u t h e r n A f r i c a ( P r e t o r i a : A f r i c a I n s t i t u t e o f South A f r i c a , 1982), p. 5. I l l 17. R u b i n s t e i n , S o v i e t and C h i n e s e I n f l u e n c e , p. 11. 18. F r a n c i s Fukuyama, "U.S.-Soviet I n t e r a c t i o n s i n the T h i r d World," i n U . S . - S o v i e t R e l a t i o n s , ed. A r n o l d L. H o r e l i c k (New York: C o r n e l l U n i v e r s i t y Press, 1986), pp. 217-218. 19. P a u l Henze, " G e t t i n g a G r i p on the Horn," i n The P a t t e r n o f S o v i e t Conduct i n t h e T h i r d World, ed. Walter Laqueur (New York: Praeger P u b l i s h e r s , 1983), pp. 169-171. 20. H o l s t i , I n t e r n a t i o n a l P o l i t i c s , p. 155. 21. Fukuyama, "U.S.-Soviet I n t e r a c t i o n s i n the T h i r d World," p. 201. 22. I b i d . , p. 201. 23. B a r r y Lynch, " E t h i o p i a , " i n The New Communist T h i r d W o r l d , ed. P e t e r Wiles (New York: St. M a r t i n ' s P r e s s , 1982), p. 110. 24. A l b r i g h t , "Moscow's A f r i c a n P o l i c y of the 1970's," i n Communism i n A f r i c a , ed. David A l b r i g h t , p. 50. 25. A l v i n R u b i n s t e i n , S o v i e t F o r e i g n P o l i c y S i n c e WWII, Second E d i t i o n (Toronto: L i t t l e , Brown and Company, 1985), p. 202. 26. Robert Gorman, P o l i t i c a l C o n f l i c t on t h e Horn o f A f r i c a (New York: Praeger P u b l i s h e r s , 1981), p. 192. 27. I b i d . , pp. 192, 194. 28. Fukuyama, "U.S.-Soviet I n t e r a c t i o n s i n the T h i r d World," p. 198. 29. I b i d . , p. 199. 30. Joseph Nogee and Robert Donaldson, S o v i e t F o r e i g n P o l i c y S i n c e World War I I (Toronto: Pergamon Pr e s s , 1981), p. 131. 31. I b i d . , p. 133. 32. Fukuyama, "U.S.-Soviet I n t e r a c t i o n s i n the T h i r d World," p. 199. 33. Robert Grey, "The S o v i e t Presence i n A f r i c a : An A n a l y s i s of G oals," The J o u r n a l o f Modern A f r i c a n S t u d i e s 22 (3) (September 1984), pp. 513-515. 34. I b i d . , p. 516. 112 35. David A l b r i g h t , "Moscow's A f r i c a n P o l i c y i n the 1970's," p. 50. 36. I b i d . , p. 55. 37. I b i d . , p. 56. 38. I b i d . , p. 56. 39. R u b i n s t e i n , Soviet and Chinese Influence, p. 15. 40. I b i d . , p. 16. 41. Nogee and Donaldson, Soviet Foreign Policy, p. 159. 42. P h i l i p Roeder, "The T i e s That Bind: A i d , Trade, and P o l i t i c a l Compliance i n S o v i e t - T h i r d World R e l a t i o n s , " International Studies Quarterly 29 (2) (1985), p. 191. 43. I b i d . , p. 193. 44. Fukuyama, "U.S.-Soviet I n t e r a c t i o n s i n the T h i r d World," p. 219. 45. H e r b e r t Block, " A i d and Trade: S o v i e t A t t i t u d e s Toward C l i e n t Economies," i n The Pattern of Soviet Conduct i n the Third World, ed. Walter Laqueur (New York: Praeger P u b l i s h e r s , 1983), pp. 241-242. 46. Lynch, " E t h i o p i a , " p. 113. 47. I b i d . , p. 111. 48. Roeder, "The T i e s That Bind," pp. 201-202. 49. Block, " S o v i e t A t t i t u d e s Toward C l i e n t Economies," p. 236. 50. R u b i n s t e i n , Soviet Foreign Policy, p. 201. 51. I b i d . , pp. 201-202. 52. Nogee and Donaldson, Soviet Foreign Policy, p. 182. 53. W i l l i a m Barnds, " S o v i e t I n f l u e n c e i n the T h i r d World: A Search f o r the S p o i l s That Go With V i c t o r y , " i n Soviet and Chinese Influence i n the Third World, ed. A l v i n R u b i n s t e i n (New York: Praeger P u b l i s h e r s , 1975), p. 27. 54. R u b i n s t e i n , Soviet Foreign Policy, p. 202. 113 55. Fukuyama, "U.S.-Soviet I n t e r a c t i o n s i n the T h i r d World," p. 217. 56. David A l b r i g h t , "Vanguard P a r t i e s i n the T h i r d World," i n The Pattern of Soviet Conduct i n the Third World, ed. Walter Laqueur (New York:Praeger P u b l i s h e r s , 1983), p. 213 • 57. I b i d . , P- 214. 58. I b i d . , P- 211. 59. I b i d . , P- 214. 60. I b i d . , P- 216. 61. I b i d . , P- 214. 62 . I b i d . , P- 221. 63 . Block, p. 227 " S o v i e t 64. Fukuyama, "U.S p. 203. 65. Harry B r i n d , " S o v i e t P o l i c y i n the Horn of A f r i c a , " International A f f a i r s 60(1), p. 91; Marina Ottaway, Soviet and American Influence i n the Horn of A f r i c a (New York: Praeger P u b l i s h e r s , 1982), p. 141. 66. R u b i n s t e i n , Soviet Foreign Policy, p. 180; Ottaway, Soviet and American Influence, p. 77. 67. Bereket S e l a s s i e , C o n f l i c t and Intervention i n the Horn of A f r i c a , (New York: Monthly Review Pr e s s , 1980), p. 116. 68. I. M. Lewis, A Modern History of Somalia (Boulder: Westview Press, 1988), p. 205. 69. I b i d . , p. 286. 70. I b i d . , p. 116. 71. Robert F. Gorman, P o l i t i c a l C o n f l i c t on the Horn of A f r i c a , (New York: Praeger P u b l i s h e r s , 1981), pp. 69, 67. 72. Tom J . F a r e r , War Clouds on the Horn of A f r i c a , Second Ed i t i o n (New York: Carnegie Endowment For I n t e r n a t i o n a l Peace, 1979), p. 113; Lewis, Somalia, p. 213; S e l a s s i e , C o n f l i c t and Intervention i n the Horn, p. 122. 114 73. R u b i n s t e i n , Soviet and Chinese Influence, p. 16. 74. Lewis, Somalia, p. 235; B r i n d , " S o v i e t P o l i c y i n the Horn," p. 84. 75. A l b r i g h t , "Moscow's A f r i c a n P o l i c y of the 1970's," pp. 50-51. 76. R u b i n s t e i n , Soviet Foreign Policy, p. 180. 77. I b i d . , p. 180. 78. F a r e r , War Clouds on the Horn, p. 115. 79. I b i d . , p. 115. 80. I b i d . , p. 115. 81. I b i d . , p. 117. 82. R u b i n s t e i n , Soviet Foreign Policy, p. 180. 83. Harry B r i n d , " S o v i e t P o l i c y i n the Horn of A f r i c a , " International A f f a i r s 60(1) (1983/84), p. 82. 84. Henze, " G e t t i n g a G r i p on the Horn," p. 154. 85. Henze, " G e t t i n g a G r i p on the Horn," pp. 168, 154; F a r e r , War Clouds on the Horn, p. 116. 86. F a r e r , War Clouds on the Horn, p. 116. 87. F a r e r , War Clouds on the Horn, pp. 117, 126; Gorman, P o l i t i c a l C o n f l i c t on the Horn, pp. 69, 70; Lewis, Somalia, p. 2 34. 88. Lewis, Somalia, p. 234. 89. Lewis, Somalia, p. 235; Raymond Copson, "The S o v i e t Union i n A f r i c a : An Assessment," i n The Pattern of Soviet Conduct i n the Third World, ed. Walter Laqueur (New York: Praeger P u b l i s h e r s , 1983), p. 189. 90. Lewis, Somalia, p. 235. 91. S e l a s s i e , C o n f l i c t and Intervention i n the Horn, p. 117. 92. Lewis, Somalia, p. 207. 93. B r i n d , " S o v i e t P o l i c y i n the Horn," p. 81. 115 94. Henze, " G e t t i n g a G r i p on the Horn," p. 168. 95. Lewis, S o m a l i a , p. 219. 96. I b i d . , p. 210. 97. I b i d . , p. 211. 98. I b i d . , p. 212. 99. F a r e r , War C l o u d s on t h e Horn, p. 112. 100. Lewis, S o m a l i a , p. 223, 225. 101. A r t h u r K l i n g h o f f e r , The Angolan War (New York: Westview P r e s s , 1980), p. 151. 102. Ottaway, S o v i e t and American I n f l u e n c e i n t h e Horn, p. 168. 103. K e i t h S o m e r v i l l e , A n g o l a (Boulder: Lynne Rienner P u b l i s h e r s , Inc., 1986), p. 39. 104. K l i n g h o f f e r , Angolan War, pp. 11-12; C a t h e r i n e S c o t t , " S o c i a l i s m and the 'Soft S t a t e ' i n A f r i c a , " The J o u r n a l o f Modern A f r i c a n S t u d i e s 26(1), p. 32. 105. S o m e r v i l l e , A n g o l a , p. 175. 106. K l i n g h o f f e r , Angolan War, p. 124; S c o t t , " S o c i a l i s m and t h e ' S o f t S t a t e ' i n A f r i c a , " p. 32. 107. K l i n g h o f f e r , Angolan War, p. 128. 108. I b i d . , p. 130. 109. I b i d . , p. 130. 110. I b i d . , p. 131. 111. I b i d . , pp. 129-130. 112. I b i d . , p. 131. 113. I b i d . , pp. 74-75. 114. I b i d . , pp. 75, 78. 115. Vanneman and James, S o v i e t F o r e i g n P o l i c y , p. 44. 116. K l i n g h o f f e r , Angolan War, p. 4. 116 117. I b i d . , p. 127. 118. I b i d . , p. 21. 119. I b i d . , p. 21. 120. I b i d . , p. 27. 121. I b i d . , pp. 22-23. 122. S o m e r v i l l e , Angola, p. 149. 123. Nicos Z a f i r i s , "The People's R e p u b l i c of Angola: S o v i e t - t y p e Economy i n the Making," i n The New Communist Third World, ed. Peter Wiles (New York: St. M a r t i n ' s P r e s s , 1982), p. 77. 124. Vanneman and James, Soviet Foreign Policy, p. 46. 125. S o m e r v i l l e , Angola, pp. 149, 178. 126. K l i n g h o f f e r , Angolan War, p. 134. 127. S o m e r v i l l e , Angola, p. 47. 128. Vanneman and James, Soviet Foreign Policy, p. 45. 12 9. Ian G r e i g , The Communist Challenge to A f r i c a , (Richmond, Surrey: F o r e i g n A f f a i r s P u b l i s h i n g Co., 1977), p. 108. 130. Vanneman and James, Soviet Foreign Policy, p. 45. 131. 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