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The traditions continue : leadership choices at Maritime Liberal and Conservative Party conventions Stewart, David Kenney 1990

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THE TRADITIONS CONTINUE: LEADERSHIP CHOICES AT MARITIME LIBERAL AND CONSERVATIVE PARTY CONVENTIONS by DAVID KENNEY STEWART  A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT THE  REQUIREMENTS FOR DOCTOR OF  THE  DEGREE  OF  PHILOSOPHY  in THE  FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES Department of Political Science  We  accept this thesis as conforming to the required standard  THE  UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH September  COLUMBIA  1990  ® David Kenney Stewart, 1990  OF  In  presenting  this  degree at the  thesis  in  University of  partial  fulfilment  of  of  department  this or  thesis for by  his  or  requirements  British Columbia, I agree that the  freely available for reference and study. I further copying  the  representatives.  an advanced  Library shall make  it  agree that permission for extensive  scholarly purposes may be her  for  It  is  granted  by the  understood  that  head of copying  my or  publication of this thesis for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission.  Department The University of British Columbia Vancouver, Canada  Date  DE-6 (2/88)  lHA  iii Abstract That l e a d e r s are important i n Canadian p a r t y p o l i t i c s i s almost a x i o m a t i c : they are the prime e l e c t o r a l resource, the u l t i m a t e p o l i c y a u t h o r i t y and the focus of media a t t e n t i o n . Yet l i t t l e i s known of what d i v i d e s p r o v i n c i a l p a r t i e s when they choose a new master. The p o l i t i c s of p r o v i n c i a l l e a d e r s h i p conventions l i e i n uncharted waters. T h i s t h e s i s focuses on p r o v i n c i a l p a r t i e s , e x p l o r i n g support p a t t e r n s at Maritime l e a d e r s h i p conventions. The study draws p r i m a r i l y on data p r o v i d e d by unpublished surveys of d e l e g a t e s t o L i b e r a l and P r o g r e s s i v e C o n s e r v a t i v e l e a d e r s h i p conventions i n the t h r e e Maritime p r o v i n c e s . These nine conventions took p l a c e between 1971 and 1986 and the d e l e g a t e survey responses r e p o r t the behaviour and a t t i t u d e s of over 3100 p a r t y a c t i v i s t s . The a n a l y s i s develops p r o v i n c i a l , p a r t i s a n and s e c u l a r comparisons. A framework f o r a n a l y s i n g delegate support p a t t e r n s i s d e r i v e d from the literature on national conventions and Maritime politics. A p p l i c a t i o n of t h i s framework t o the nine conventions r e v e a l s a r e c u r r i n g theme. Candidate support i s best understood i n a ' f r i e n d s and neighbours' framework. F r i e n d s and neighbours r e f e r s f i r s t , t o a n o n - f a c t i o n a l geographic p a t t e r n of support. Simply put, d e l e g a t e s tend t o support the l o c a l candidate, a neighbour. The second element of f r i e n d s and neighbours support r e l a t e s t o ethnor e l i g i o u s t i e s . Candidates r e c e i v e d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e support from d e l e g a t e s who are ' f r i e n d s ' i n terms of shared r e l i g i o u s or e t h n i c background. F r i e n d s and neighbours d i v i s i o n s were more important than a t t i t u d e , age, gender or d i f f e r e n c e s i n s o c i a l s t a t u s : they were present throughout the p e r i o d i n each p r o v i n c e and both p a r t i e s . The importance of p l a c e and r e l i g i o n / e t h n i c i t y p r o v i d e e m p i r i c a l evidence of Maritime t r a d i t i o n a l i s m . The support p a t t e r n s would be w e l l understood by 19th century p o l i t i c i a n s and show no s i g n of d i s s i p a t i n g . Attempts t o l i n k these p a t t e r n s to age or l e v e l of education were unsuccessful. V i r t u a l l y a l l delegates were i n f l u e n c e d by the t i e s of ' f r i e n d s h i p ' or 'neighbourhood'. The major exceptions were ex officio delegates. These party p r o f e s s i o n a l s a c t i n g i n a brokerage r o l e were r e l a t i v e l y immune from the f r i e n d s and neighbours p u l l . By m i t i g a t i n g such d i v i s i o n s , ex o f f i c i o d e l e g a t e s made s u b s t a n t i a l contributions to party unity. T h i s t h e s i s r e v e a l s a coherent and c o n s i s t e n t p a t t e r n of i n t r a p a r t y d i v i s i o n s i n the r e g i o n . I t confirms the s t r e n g t h of traditionalism i n the Maritimes and h i g h l i g h t s an important m a n i f e s t a t i o n of t h i s t r a d i t i o n a l i s m : ethno r e l i g i o u s s o l i d a r i t y undercut by l o c a l i s m and m i t i g a t e d by brokerage p o l i t i c s . Such f i n d i n g s are i n sharp c o n t r a s t t o a s s e r t i o n s t h a t Maritime p o l i t i c s i s changing.  iv Acknowledgements I must begin by thanking Marsh Conley and Agar Adamson f o r making a v a i l a b l e the data s e t s on which t h i s t h e s i s i s based. I t was very generous and I am deeply g r a t e f u l . I would a l s o l i k e t o thank the S o c i a l Sciences and Humanities Research C o u n c i l of Canada f o r the D o c t o r a l F e l l o w s h i p which supported me f o r most of the p e r i o d when the t h e s i s was w r i t t e n . Thanks are due R i c h a r d Johnston and Donald Blake f o r t h e i r support and t h e i r advice which made the t h e s i s much b e t t e r than i t would otherwise have been. My c o l l e a g u e s i n the Graduate Programme at U.B.C. p r o v i d e d a most c o n g e n i a l environment to work i n and two of them, Jim Bruton and Jim Fergusson were very h e l p f u l i n p r o v i d i n g advice and c r i t i s m . F i n a l l y , the l a r g e s t debt of g r a t i t u d e i s owed to my a d v i s o r Ken C a r t y . My work has b e n e f i t t e d g r e a t l y from h i s i n s i g h t and a d v i c e . His a s s i s t a n c e however, went f a r beyond those parameters and I am p r o f o u n d l y g r a t e f u l . No one c o u l d ask f o r a b e t t e r a d v i s o r .  TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract Acknowledgements L i s t of Tables  i i i iv v  Chapter 1 Maritime P o l i t i c s and Leadership S e l e c t i o n Leadership and Conventions i n Canada The Maritime Leadership Studies P l a n of the Study  1 3 8 15  Chapter 2 P a t t e r n s of Delegate Support: A Framework f o r Analysis Region Religion Ethnicity S o c i a l Status Institutional Divisions Community S i z e Attitudes Framework  19 23 28 31 33 35 39 41 45  Chapter 3 Maritime Convention Delegates: A P r o f i l e  48  Chapter 4 P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d : D i v i s i o n s at Commuter Conventions Convention Context Geographic D i v i s i o n s S o c i a l Groups Attitudes Discussion Chapter 5 Nova S c o t i a Conventions: D i v i s i o n s i n the 'Modern' Maritimes Convention Context Geographic D i v i s i o n s S o c i a l Groups Attitudes  63 68 78 86 106 I l l  121 125 131 138 163  vi Discussion  171  Chapter 6 New Brunswick L i b e r a l s : D i v i s i o n s i n a B i p o l a r Province Convention Context Geographic D i v i s i o n s S o c i a l Groups Attitudes Discussion Chapter 7 Maritime Conventions: The P o l i t i c s of 'Friends Neighbours Friends Neighbours F r i e n d s or Neighbours E l i t e s at Maritime Conventions Attitudinal Divisions R u r a l Dominace The T r a d i t i o n s Continue  182 186 192 200 222 228 and  237 241 250 25 6 261 264 266 270  Chapter 8 F r i e n d and Neighbours: Defense and E x p l a n a t i o n Bibliography  ...  274 305  vii  L i s t of Tables Table 1-1  Response  Rate  12  Table 1-2  Comparison  Table 3-1  S e l e c t e d Delegate C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s by  of Reported and A c t u a l V o t i n g . . .  Convention  14  62  Table 4-1  Vote by County  Table 4-2  Vote by Community S i z e i n Queens County  Table 4-3  Vote by Delegate Type  Table 4-4  Vote by Age  Table 4-5  Vote by R e l i g i o n  Table 4-6  Vote by Income (PEI)  93  Table 4-7  Vote by E d u c a t i o n (PEI)  93  Table 4-8  Vote by S o c i a l C l a s s  94  Table 4-9  Cramer's V  Table 4-10  Index of R e l i g i o u s E f f e c t by E d u c a t i o n and Age (PEI) Vote by Delegate Type C o n t r o l l i n g f o r R e l i g i o n (PEI)  Table 4-11 Table 4-12  (PEI)  81 ...  (PEI)  (PEI)  85 88 89  (PEI)  92  (PEI)  (PEI)  95 99 101  Index of Neighbourhood E f f e c t by E d u c a t i o n and Age  (PEI)  106  Table 4-13  P o l i c y Consensus  Table 4-14  M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n : S o c i a l and Geographic Factors  (PEI)  110  (PEI)  120  Table 5-1  Vote by Region  (N.S.)  Table 5-2  Vote by Community S i z e  Table 5-3  Vote by Delegate Type  Table 5-4  Vote by Age  Table 5-5  Vote by R e l i g i o n  135 ( H a l i f a x area) (N.S.)  (N.S.) (N.S.)  137 140 141 144  viii Table 5-6  Vote by C l a s s ,  Table 5-7  Vote by S o c i a l I n s i d e r  Table 5-8  Index o f R e l i g i o u s Age (N.S.)  Table 5-9  E d u c a t i o n and Income(N.S.) .. 147 Scale  (N.S.)  148  Support by E d u c a t i o n and 151  Vote by Delegate Type C o n t r o l l i n g f o r R e l i g i o n (N.S.)  155  Table 5-10  Cramer's V (N.S.)  156  Table 5-11  Index of Neighbourhood E f f e c t by E d u c a t i o n and Age (N.S.)  162  Table 5-12  P o l i c y Consensus  Table 5-13  M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n : S o c i a l and Geographic F a c t o r s (N.S.)  180,181  Table 6-1  Vote by Region  194  Table 6-2  Vote by area of the p r o v i n c e  Table 6-3  Vote by Community Size  Table 6-4  Vote by E t h n i c i t y  Table 6-5  Vote by Language (N.B.)  203  Table 6-6  Vote by Delegate Type  205  Table 6-7  Vote by Gender  Table 6-8  Vote by E d u c a t i o n (N.B.)  208  Table 6-9  Cramer's V (N.B.)  209  Table 6-10  Index of E t h n i c Support by E d u c a t i o n and Age (N.B.)  212  Vote by Delegate Type C o n t r o l l i n g f o r Language (N.B.)  213  Table 6-11 Table 6-12  (N.S.)  168  (N.B.) (N.B.)  (N.B.)  (N.B.)  (N.B.)  (N.B.)  196 198 203  207  Index of Neighbourhood E f f e c t by E d u c a t i o n and Age  (N.B.)  218  Table 6-13  P o l i c y Consensus  (N.B.)  Table 6-14  M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n : S o c i a l and Geographic  224  Table  7-1  Index  of Friends  and N e i g h b o u r s  Support  1  Chapter 1 Maritime  Few  observers  traditional  nature  P o l i t i c s and L e a d e r s h i p  Selection  of  are  Maritime  of p o l i t i c s  politics i n the  unaware  region. Maritime  of  the  politics  t a k e s p l a c e i n the c o n t e x t of a t r a d i t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l c u l t u r e w i t h a  traditional  party  system  i n which t h e r e  d i v i s i o n s between t h e major p a r t i e s and dominate t h e p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s . is  revealed  by  the  lingering  The  are  few  ideological  where t h e p a r t y  leaders  traditional p o l i t i c a l culture  impact  of  religion,  the  relative  e x c l u s i o n of women from prominent p o l i t i c a l r o l e s , low degrees of p o l i t i c a l t r u s t and e f f i c a c y and t h e p e r s i s t e n c e of p a t r o n a g e .  The  t r a d i t i o n a l p a r t y system i s e v i d e n c e d by t h e dominance of L i b e r a l s and  Conservatives,  identification,  the  the  strength  absence  of  and  tenacity  ideological  of  divisions  concomitantly,  by t h e p e r s i s t e n c e of p r i m o r d i a l t i e s of  and  as  ethnicity  Such management accommodation  considerations includes t i c k e t  in  New  requiring p o l i t i c a l balancing  Brunswick  and  on  party  PEI,  religious  and,  religion  management. elite  ethnic  alternation  of  l e a d e r s h i p i n Nova S c o t i a . The evidence  dominant p o s i t i o n of t h e  party  of  political  both  the  traditional  leader  provides  culture  and  strong party  system. As Adamson put i t "the p o s i t i o n of t h e p a r t y l e a d e r i s more pronounced i n A t l a n t i c Canada t h a n i n o t h e r p r o v i n c e s "  (1987: 222).  T h i s argument i s b o l s t e r e d by A u c o i n ' s c l a i m t h a t i n Nova S c o t i a "the p a r t y l e a d e r t e n d s t o p e r s o n i f y t h e p a r t y f o r t h e e l e c t o r a t e "  (1972:  27)  "authority  and  Aunger's  within  parliamentary  each  contention  political  l e a d e r . I t i s he  d e t e r m i n a t i o n of p o l i c y  that  party  who  has  in  New  Brunswick  i s centralized  in  the  i n the  final  word  and t h e s e l e c t i o n o f c a n d i d a t e s "  the  (1981:  162) . V e r y few d i s c u s s i o n s o f M a r i t i m e p o l i t i c s , i t s t r a d i t i o n a l i s m and t h e s p e c i a l r o l e o f l e a d e r s are based on s y s t e m a t i c e m p i r i c a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n , p a r t l y because t h e r e are few e m p i r i c a l s t u d i e s o f t h e r e g i o n a v a i l a b l e . T h i s t h e s i s b e g i n s t o remedy t h i s d e f i c i e n c y . I t examines M a r i t i m e p o l i t i c s by s t u d y i n g p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s as t h e y are  involved  in  their  most  important  function:  leadership  s e l e c t i o n . L e a d e r s h i p c o n v e n t i o n s are an i n t e g r a l p a r t o f Canadian politics  and  this  thesis  argues  conventions  are b e s t u n d e r s t o o d  neighbours'  politics.  influenced heavily support  to  relatively  Leadership  by  localism.  a candidate  from  that  i n the  Maritime  context of  choice at these Delegates  their  own  leadership 'friends  and  gatherings i s  give disproportionate  area.  They a l s o  h i g h l e v e l s of s u p p o r t t o c a n d i d a t e s who  provide  share  their  r e l i g i o u s or e t h n i c background. The s u p p o r t p a t t e r n s are c o n s i s t e n t across  partisan  and  provincial  lines  and  among  virtually a l l  d e l e g a t e groups. The b r o k e r a g e p o l i t i c s of ' e x - o f f i c i o '  delegates  however, somewhat c o u n t e r b a l a n c e s t h e s e t e n d e n c i e s . The c o n v e n t i o n support  patterns  provide  strong  empirical  evidence  of  the  t r a d i t i o n a l i s m of M a r i t i m e p o l i t i c s and s t a n d i n sharp c o n t r a s t t o c l a i m s t h a t Maritime p o l i t i c s i s changing.  3 Leadership  and Conventions  That l e a d e r s h i p  i n Canada  i s important  approaches  gospel.  Studies  parliament,  party  discipline,  making—not not  "When  their  Canadians  perspectives.  reduced  policy  a leader  future  case.  The  policy  point  leaders  policies  and a  new  conventions  the leader  of  leaders.  they  will  ( 1 9 8 8 :  from  have  decisions  about  longer the separated  Carty give  put i t , them  new  i s not just  a "party's  and nominating  a  key a c t i v i t y  f o r public  office"  on w h e t h e r i t makes s e n s e t o t h i n k  their  become  The p r o c e s s o f  This  7 3 , 7 4 ) .  leaders.  their  In Courtney's  leaders  'writ  large'  leaders"  ( 1 9 8 8 :  words having 2 0 1 ) .  a n d A x w o r t h y o f f e r some r a t i o n a l e f o r t h e i m p o r t a n c e "Any  leader  of  a  modern  political  commanding p o s i t i o n . As t h e c h i e f communicator electronic  i s the party"  explicitly  i n t h e hope t h a t  t a k e n on, as i t were t h e p e r s o n a l i t y o f t h e i r Goldfarb  argue  dominates  i s no  as  candidates  i n Canada  have  Ranney n o t e d t h a t  as d i s t i n c t  This  now,  I n d e e d , o n e may s p e c u l a t e  parties  and Axworthy  and  persona"  In 1971  selecting  constitution  p o l i t i c s , .leadership  Canadians  i n  t o the continued, i f  Goldfarb  and Conservatives  leadership  Canadian trend.  and  used t o be accompanied by p a r t y  Liberals  influence  f o rthe s e l e c t i o n of leaders.  choose  "parties  making  system  F l o r a Macdonald warns t h a t p a r t i e s a r e being  "parties  ( 3 1 7 ) .  choice,  policy direction of the party.  and  ...  about  F o r most  to vehicles  selecting  of  voting  the media—all  think  i x ) . Similarly,  ( 1 9 8 8 :  is  of  increasing, importance of leaders.  that  the  t o mention  i n t h e Canadian p o l i t i c a l  age,  the  leader  becomes  the  party  i s i n a  of the party  focus  of  i n an  unrivalled  4 a t t e n t i o n . T h i s s i n g l e minded c o n c e n t r a t i o n on p e r s o n a l i t y g i v e s a s u c c e s s f u l l e a d e r maximum l e v e r a g e t o d e f i n e the agenda and s e t the course"  (1988: 3) .  Sinclair leader  Stevens  made  the same p o i n t ,  i s by no means the s o l e  success  or f a i l u r e ,  element  arguing  "Although a  i n a party's  electoral  i n the age o f media-dominated p o l i t i c s  she has come t o be an important  component"  he or  (1984: 117). Moreover,  Mackenzie King s i l e n c e d caucus c r i t i c i s m by n o t i n g t h a t he d i d not owe h i s p o s i t i o n t o them but t o the wider p a r t y . H i s s e l e c t i o n by convention gave him e x t r a a u t h o r i t y over the caucus (Lederle, 1947: 8 6). More r e c e n t l y John Turner was able t o remain as l e a d e r d e s p i t e the h o s t i l i t y  o f a good p o r t i o n o f h i s caucus.  The c h o i c e o f a l e a d e r i s o b v i o u s l y very important party  and the p o l i t y :  not only  i s the l e a d e r  i n a p o s i t i o n of  dominance but who i s chosen may a l s o have a s i g n i f i c a n t the  subsequent  political  direction  country/province  and the p a r t y .  Pierre  over  Trudeau  Robert  or  health  For instance, Winters  in  both f o r a  impact on of  the  the s e l e c t i o n of  1968  had  profound  i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r the d i r e c t i o n o f the country over the subsequent twenty year p e r i o d . S i m i l a r l y , i n 1984, choosing John Turner r a t h e r than Jean C h r e t i e n may have had major e l e c t o r a l  consequences f o r  the L i b e r a l p a r t y . As a f i n a l example, the c h o i c e o f Frank M i l l e r as  leader  o f the O n t a r i o  responsible dynasties  Conservatives  f o r the demise  of  one  i n 1985 may  o f the  longest  have  been  political  i n Canadian h i s t o r y .  What d i v i d e s p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s when they make these  important  5 choices  thus  becomes  an  important  and  interesting  question  for  p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s . Leadership conventions p r o v i d e an o p p o r t u n i t y t o observe p o t e n t i a l l e a d e r s as they A convention  a l s o , as C a r t y put i t ,  attempt to b u i l d  coalitions.  "opens a window i n t o a p a r t y to  r e v e a l i t s i n n e r s t r u c t u r e and dynamics"  (1988b: 84)  p r o v i d i n g an  o p p o r t u n i t y to observe what d i v i d e s a p a r t y when i t makes i t s most important  decision.  Jewell  and  argue t h a t "Few  Olson  in their  study  of American  state  politics  p a r t i e s are homogeneous and m o n o l i t h i c . Rather they  c o n t a i n many d i f f e r e n t elements, each b e i n g a p o t e n t i a l source controversy,  of disagreement and  want t o  know the  pattern  (1982:  52) .  Canada,  In  of  of o p p o s i t i o n t o the  conflict  leadership  within  other...we  a political  conventions  party"  provide  o p p o r t u n i t y to observe these p a t t e r n s of c o n f l i c t and a l l o w one determine the degree to which p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s are  of  the to  factionalized.  For i n s t a n c e , one c o u l d d i s c o v e r whether the p a t t e r n of i n t r a p a r t y competition may  be  no  i s one  of enduring  more than  a f t e r the candidacy and Olson,  1982:  f a c t i o n s or, i f i n s t e a d ,  a campaign  group  created  "Factions  f o r and  dissolved  of a s i n g l e person f o r a s i n g l e o f f i c e "  (Jewell  5). S u l l i v a n , Pressman and Anderton make a s i m i l a r  p o i n t when they note " P o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s are not m o n o l i t h i c i n t h e i r views or demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and the study can  r e v e a l the  e v o l v i n g s t r u c t u r e of cleavages  (1976: 3). Krause context,  and  Leduc have made t h i s  of  conventions  w i t h i n the  point  at l e a s t i n r e f e r e n c e t o the L i b e r a l s and  in a  party"  Canadian  Conservatives.  In t h e i r words: "As b r o a d l y based p a r t i e s of the p o l i t i c a l  centre,  6 both the L i b e r a l s and C o n s e r v a t i v e s might be expected t o e x h i b i t a number of i n t e r n a l d i v i s i o n s w i t h i n the p a r t y . . . I t i s p r e d i c t a b l e therefore  that  such  divisions  or  cleavages,  particularly  those  which are most enduring over time w i l l s u r f a c e i n c o n t e s t s f o r the leadership  of  the  party"  (1979:  115,116).  d i v i s i o n s then should r e v e a l much about Moreover, world  of  conventions  provincial  or  may  provide  national  Looking  at  these  internal party p o l i t i c s . a window  politics.  As  into  the  wider  Krause  and  Leduc  e x p l a i n "Canadian p a r t y conventions with t h e i r modern t e c h n o l o g y t o accentuate c a n d i d a t e appeals, i s s u e s and or i d e o l o g y and and  sectional  contested  cleavages  have  come t o  resemble  mini  i n the same manner as other e l e c t i o n s but  much s m a l l e r i n t r a p a r t y suggest t h a t  electorate"  " c l e a r l y the d i v i s i o n  East and West, French and E n g l i s h ,  (1979:  102).  of a p a r t y by left  and r i g h t ,  regional  elections, involving  They  go  factors  on  to  such  as  o l d and young,  i s an important p a r t of the f a b r i c of Canadian p a r t y p o l i t i c s , cannot  be  n e g l e c t e d i n any  analysis  of v o t i n g b e h a v i o u r "  116) . In essence, what i s important i n the wider p o l i t y t o be  important  suggested t h a t  at conventions. As  well,  a  and  (1979:  is likely  Winn and McMenemy have  "Each p a r t y tends t o possess a c t i v i s t s among these  groups from which i t draws v o t i n g s t r e n g t h . T h i s s i m i l a r i t y between e l e c t o r s and a c t i v i s t s tends t o be t r u e f o r r e l i g i o n ,  language  and  r e g i o n , but not very t r u e i n the case of s o c i a l c l a s s "  (1976: 156).  Thus s t u d y i n g convention d e l e g a t e s should p r o v i d e i n s i g h t i n t o the broader nature of p a r t y support bases. Since conventions determine the p o o l from which v o t e r s choose  7 their  l e a d e r s they  are an important  part of p o l i t i c s  i n Canada.  A n a l y z i n g delegate behaviour at these g a t h e r i n g s can shed l i g h t on the nature o f p o l i t i c s i n p a r t i c u l a r p a r t s of the country: f o r the purposes  o f t h i s study, the Maritimes. The process o f s e l e c t i n g a  leader  bring  choose  from  activists  together  among contending  and f o r c e s each  participant to  a s p i r a n t s . An e m p i r i c a l  account of  delegate support w i l l p r o v i d e i n s i g h t i n t o the nature o f d i v i s i o n s both w i t h i n the p a r t y and the wider p o l i t i c a l  system.  The q u e s t i o n of l e a d e r s h i p s e l e c t i o n and conventions i n Canada has a t t r a c t e d an i n c r e a s i n g degree of academic a t t e n t i o n . What was a new f i e l d twenty years ago now encompasses a c o n s i d e r a b l e body o f knowledge. Research has r a i s e d and d e a l t with q u e s t i o n s r e g a r d i n g delegate  selection,  status  and  position;  initial  choice  and  t r a n s f e r of support; candidate m o t i v a t i o n s and c a r e e r p a t t e r n s ; the i n f l u e n c e of speeches,  i d e o l o g y , age, gender, r e g i o n a l i s m and the  media; the impact of the a c t u a l r u l e s and the problem o f f i n a n c i n g . Today Canadian p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s have a good d e a l of i n f o r m a t i o n on l e a d e r s h i p conventions at t h e i r f i n g e r t i p s . Indeed, C l a r k s o n i n a  paper  written  i n 1976, wondered  Courtney,  Smiley  and Leduc,  interest"  (1976: 1) .  further  whether  given  r e s e a r c h would  the work by be  "of any  Regardless o f h i s musings, C l a r k s o n went on with h i s study of the  1976  Ontario  Liberal  leadership  convention.  Clarkson's  s p e c u l a t i o n and h i s study, p o i n t out t h a t while much has been done regarding have  federal  l e a d e r s h i p conventions, p r o v i n c i a l  r e c e i v e d nowhere  near  the same  degree  of  conventions interest  or  8 r e s e a r c h . Courtney, explicitly  avoided  selection  and on  of the e a r l y  provincial  of p r o v i n c i a l  separate through  i n one  complete this.  conventions  studies"  (1973:  Gibbins  and  As  frequency,  their  importance  to p r o v i n c i a l p o l i t i c a l l i f e "  politics  growing  of  size  less  have  note  complexity  leadership  and  than  followed  "provincial  ignored despite t h e i r  and  "the  their  greater growing  (1986:4).  conventions  in  provincial  i s beyond d i s p u t e . V i c t o r y i n a l e a d e r s h i p convention i s  a necessary, premier:  have been  nothing  x i i ) . Few  Hunziker  conventions  importance  maintaining that  p a r t y l e a d e r s deserve  leadership  The  analyses of conventions,  and  occasionally  conventions  sufficient,  determine  the  e l e c t o r a t e s must draw t h e i r p r e m i e r . are more " c o m p e t i t i v e than  1  pool  from  f o r becoming  which  provincial  In some i n s t a n c e s conventions  elections"  l e a d e r s h i p of a p a r t i c u l a r p a r t y may  condition  (Mintz, 1983:  19)  i n that  be tantamount t o government  office. The Maritime L e a d e r s h i p S t u d i e s Nine Maritime l e a d e r s h i p conventions p r o v i d e the focus of t h i s study. Examination B l u n t l y , the NDP New  i s l i m i t e d t o the L i b e r a l s  and C o n s e r v a t i v e s .  are marginal t o Maritime p o l i t i c s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n  Brunswick and PEI. Adding NDP  conventions t o the a n a l y s i s would  The Parti Quebecois was the f i r s t p a r t y t o abandon conventions as the means t o s e l e c t t h e i r l e a d e r . They have t w i c e h e l d an a l l member vote t o choose a l e a d e r . R e c e n t l y , they were j o i n e d by the O n t a r i o C o n s e r v a t i v e s who chose t h e i r new l e a d e r i n a s i m i l a r f a s h i o n . Nonetheless, conventions remain the dominant mode of l e a d e r s h i p s e l e c t i o n i n Canada. 1  n e e d l e s s l y c o m p l i c a t e comparisons.  The data s e t s t o be examined  2  were c o l l e c t e d under the a u s p i c e s of the A t l a n t i c Canada P r o j e c t at A c a d i a U n i v e r s i t y . Delegates t o the 1971 Nova S c o t i a P . C , P.C,  PEI  1978 PEI L i b e r a l , 1980 Nova S c o t i a L i b e r a l , 1981 PEI L i b e r a l ,  1981  PEI  Liberal, Every  P.C, and  1982  1986  New  contested  convention New  r i c h data s e t . The  Nova S c o t i a Tories,  and  each  Brunswick  Liberal,  Nova S c o t i a L i b e r a l  e x c e p t i o n of the 1978 this  1976  between  1985  conventions 1971  and  New  Brunswick  were  surveyed.  1987  (with  Brunswick L i b e r a l convention) nine conventions  PEI  and  with  the  party  is  examined  the  i s p a r t of  i n c l u d e both p a r t i e s i n  exception twice.  of the  Different  Nova S c o t i a n parties  can  t h e r e f o r e be compared while changes can a l s o be noted i n the same p a r t y from one to  tell  convention t o the next. I t s h o u l d a l s o be p o s s i b l e  whether  same p a t t e r n s p e r s i s t  over  time  throughout  the  Maritimes. V a r i a t i o n s on one b a s i c survey were used i n each i n s t a n c e with the  result  that  information. background,  the  Each party  nine  survey  data asked  involvement,  sets contain v i r t u a l l y questions convention  d e c i s i o n making, a t t i t u d e s and c a n d i d a t e The politics  nine  data  s e t s present  i n the Maritimes  relating  to  behaviour,  identical personal personal  appraisals.  a unique  o p p o r t u n i t y t o examine  over a number of y e a r s . Studying  these  data s e t s w i l l c o n t r i b u t e t o a b e t t e r understanding of p o l i t i c s i n the  Maritimes,  will  enable  observers  to  look  for  Even without t h i s s u b s t a n t i v e o b j e c t i o n , data only one NDP convention which would make c r o s s comparisons i m p o s s i b l e . 2  evidence existfs f o r provi-n'cial  of  10 tradition  and  conservatism,  p e r i o d and determine  assess the degree  of change over  the  whether the p a t t e r n of Maritime p o l i t i c s i s  "being s u b t l y eroded by the p r o c e s s e s of change"  (Bellamy,  1976:  3). I t s h o u l d a l s o add t o knowledge of p a r t i e s and i n t e r n a l p a r t y dynamics. F i n a l l y , uniquely  i t will  Canadian  h e l p t o advance comprehension  phenomenon  of  leadership  of  the  conventions  by  systematically observing i t i n a cross p r o v i n c i a l More  specifically,  comparisons  with  the  study  conventions  in  will  provide  other  comparison. a  basis  for  provinces,  allow  for  c o n t r a s t s t o be drawn between p r o v i n c i a l and f e d e r a l a c t i v i s t s . I t will  map  the  attitudinal  makeup  of  several  Maritime  parties.  I n f e r e n c e s about the broader support bases of Maritime p a r t i e s can be made and q u e s t i o n r a i s e d r e g a r d i n g the r e p r e s e n t a t i v e nature of conventions  i n the M a r i t i m e s . As  well,  c l e a v a g e s i n Maritime p o l i t i c s may empirical  the  r e l e v a n c e of v a r i o u s  be c h a l l e n g e d or p r o v i d e d with  support. Most i m p o r t a n t l y i t w i l l  lay a foundation f o r  f u r t h e r study i n t o the p o l i t i c a l worlds of the Maritimes, an area t h a t has r a t h e r l a c k e d f o r academic a t t e n t i o n . Any of  the  asked,  secondary  examination has c e r t a i n i n h e r e n t problems.  difficulties t h e i r wording,  q u e s t i o n s were asked  i s the  lack  of  control  over  t h e i r order or the p o s s i b l e for different  reasons  and may  the  One  questions  responses.  The  not measure a  p a r t i c u l a r v a r i a b l e i n the manner best s u i t e d f o r t h i s study. For instance,  the  grouping  of  Nova  Scotia  and  New  Brunswick  r e g i o n s i s not c a r r i e d out i n a way t h a t would most f a c i l i t a t e study.  (The method used was  into this  t o group c o l l e c t i o n s of c o u n t i e s . For  the purposes  of t h i s study, t r e a t i n g each county  s e p a r a t e l y would  have been b e t t e r . ) S i m i l a r l y , the measurement of community s i z e at the  1980 Nova  examine  the  attitudes  Scotia  city  i s also  Liberal  of  convention  Halifax  on  makes  i t s own.  problematic. Different  i t impossible to  The  measurement  of  q u e s t i o n s were used at  d i f f e r e n t conventions r e s t r i c t i n g c o m p a r a b i l i t y . As w e l l , t h e r e was no attempt  t o measure a t t i t u d e s i n such a way as t o a l l o w f o r easy  s c a l e c o n s t r u c t i o n . Any treatment of a t t i t u d i n a l d i v i s i o n s must be understood There  i n l i g h t of t h i s problem. i s also  no  control  over  the  sampling  method.  Two  d i f f e r e n t methods were used t o c o l l e c t the data. In some cases the e n t i r e p o p u l a t i o n was sampled. That i s , every d e l e g a t e t o a g i v e n c o n v e n t i o n was sent a survey s h o r t l y a f t e r t h e c o n v e n t i o n . In the other cases, random sampling was used. Using a l i s t the  conventions,  surveyed.  a random  The a c t u a l  list  of d e l e g a t e s  number of surveys  was  delegate  body.  The  smallest  generated  sent v a r i e d  f u n d i n g and i n t e r e s t . The s m a l l e s t sample chosen the  of d e l e g a t e s t o  samples  were  depending  comprised drawn  and on  20% of  from  PEI  conventions with the r e s u l t t h a t the number of respondents from the f o u r I s l a n d conventions were much lower than i n Nova S c o t i a or New Brunswick. The delegate  various parties lists  available  were and  extremely the  co-operative  candidates  were  i n making helpful  in  c o n v i n c i n g d e l e g a t e s t o r e t u r n the surveys. Each m a i l e d survey was accompanied by a l e t t e r s i g n e d by a l l of the c a n d i d a t e s u r g i n g the r e c i p i e n t t o take the time t o complete  and r e t u r n i t . T h i s a d v i c e  12 undoubtedly boosted the response r a t e which g e n e r a l l y was 40%.  This  recent  compares q u i t e  surveys  favourably  with  t h e response  o f the 198 6 B.C. S o c i a l C r e d i t convention  around  rate f o r and the  1985 A l b e r t a Tory convention.  (See Blake, C a r t y and E r i c k s o n , 1988:  514) . There  contrast  i s a l s o a sharp  Credit party o f f i c i a l s convention  i n the r e a c t i o n o f S o c i a l  i n B.C. who r e a c t e d t o t h e study  by d i s c o u r a g i n g d e l e g a t e  of t h e i r  responses.  Table 1-1 Response Rate Total Delegates  Surveys Sent  Surveys Returned  Response Rate  1971 N.S. P .C.  736  736  405  55%  1976 PEI P.C.  1026  500  142  28%  1978 PEI Liberal  1345  480  163  34%  1980 N.S. Liberal  914  914  437  47%  1981 PEI Liberal  1387  375  168  45%  1981 PEI P.C.  1448  1982 N.B. Liberal  2603  1985 N.B. Liberal  2748  550  274  50%  1986 N.S. Liberal  1803  1803  941  52%  It  impossible  to  600 867  determine  respondents are of the delegate key  test  that  representativeness  offers  203  34%  366  precisely  42%  how  representative  p o p u l a t i o n . However, t h e r e i s one  fairly  of the sample:  solid  evidence  a comparison  as  o f the  to  the  reported  v o t i n g behaviour  of the d e l e g a t e s with the  c o n v e n t i o n s . As Table 1-2 similar.  The  i n d i c a t e s , the percentages  appears  are  by  t h a t margin  f o r one of the two  and  much weaker than i t was  the  other  1985  optimism  candidate's  support  i n r e a l i t y . At none of the  t h a t the respondents  New  candidates i s  conventions was the d e v i a t i o n g r e a t e r than 5%. There i s thus for  the  extremely  maximum d e v i a t i o n i s t e n p o i n t s , with the  Brunswick L i b e r a l sample. Support overestimated  a c t u a l v o t i n g at  other cause  are q u i t e t y p i c a l of the o v e r a l l  d e l e g a t e body. As with a l l convention s t u d i e s , t h e r e i s some worry t h a t non  respondents  may  fall  disproportionately into  a  specific  subgroup. The r e l a t i v e l y e l i t e s t a t u s of c o n v e n t i o n d e l e g a t e s might be due t o the g r e a t e r p r o p e n s i t y of lower s t a t u s d e l e g a t e s t o throw a  survey  attendance  out.  However,  the  expenses  inherent  in  l i k e l y makes them a p r e s e r v e of the r e l a t i v e l y  and t h e r e i s no reason t o f e e l the c a n d i d a t e s ' u r g i n g of would  convention  fall  more r e c e p t i v e l y  on  higher  affluent  compliance  s t a t u s d e l e g a t e s . At  any  r a t e , the c o m p a r a b i l i t y of the r e p o r t e d and a c t u a l v o t i n g makes i t unlikely  that  underrepresented. confidence  that  conventions.  a  particular  One  can approach the survey data w i t h a sense of  the  respondents  subgroup  provide  is  a  good  systematically  sample  of  the  14 Table 1-2 Comparison of Reported and A c t u a l Vote Convention  Candidate  Actual  Reported  Difference  NS  Buchanan  33%  33%  —  Doucet  38%  39%  +1  Thornhill  29%  27%  -2  Lee  43%  43%  —  A. MacLean  57%  57%  —  Campbell  72%  71%  -1  1978  Mitchell  28%  29%  +1  NS  Cameron  37%  40%  +3  Maclnnis  14%  14%  —  V.MacLean  27%  29%  +2  Mooney  21%  17%  -4  Clement  35%  32%  -3  Ghiz  65%  68%  +3  Binns  16%  14%  -2  Clark  24%  25%  +1  Driscoll  20%  17%  -3  Lee  40%  44%  +4  Day  31%  27%  -4  Frenette  12%  11%  -1  Maher  6%  5%  -1  Young  51%  56%  +5  Frenette  31%  21%  -10  1985  McKenna  69%  79%  + 10  NS  Cowan  40%  38%  -2  V.MacLean  60%  62%  +2  P.C.  1971  PEI  P.C.  1976 PEI  Liberal  Liberal  1980  PEI  Liberal  1981 PEI  P.C.  1981  NB  Liberal  1982  NB  Liberal Liberal  1986  The r e l a t i v e l y low number of respondents from the f o u r I s l a n d conventions  i s cause f o r some concern. The v a l u e of C h i Square,  15 perhaps the b e s t  test  of s i g n i f i c a n c e  f o r nominal  variables,  is  h e a v i l y dependent on the sample s i z e . For i n s t a n c e , d o u b l i n g the number of cases w i t h no  change i n p r o p o r t i o n s would have a major  e f f e c t on C h i Square. Thus the s m a l l number of cases from PEI make Chi  Square t e s t s of s i g n i f i c a n c e q u i t e onerous.  the a p p l i c a t i o n  of s i g n i f i c a n c e t e s t s t o the  With t h i s i n mind, I s l a n d data w i l l  be  l e s s s t r i n g e n t than the normal .05. O b s e r v a t i o n s w i l l be r e p o r t e d with,  of course,  the caveat t h a t c o n c l u s i o n s can  tentatively. S t i l l ,  the surveys r e p r e s e n t unique  examine  events  political  that  will  never  o n l y be  offered  o p p o r t u n i t i e s to  be  repeated.  The  i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of even p o s s i b l e p a t t e r n s i s t h e r e f o r e important. As Bibby noted i n somewhat s i m i l a r circumstances tendencies  are  worth  observing.  significance overrules s t a t i s t i c a l  "general trends  Practical  or  substantive  s i g n i f i c a n c e when the  are c o n s i s t e n t with other data s o u r c e s "  and  findings  (1987: 8).  P l a n of the Study An examination of conventions and d e l e g a t e support p a t t e r n s i s a huge u n d e r t a k i n g . F o r t u n a t e l y p r e v i o u s r e s e a r c h h e l p s t o attention really  on  certain  national  variables.  conventions,  a s s o c i a t e d w i t h v o t i n g . As region  provides  an  entry  literature  identifies  well, into  The  the  a  number  literature  Maritime  on  politics  on  focus  conventions, of  variables  the  and  Atlantic  points  out  p o t e n t i a l l y f r u i t f u l areas f o r i n v e s t i g a t i o n i n an examination delegate  support  patterns  i n the  r e g i o n . The  next  chapter  of  will  u t i l i z e these bodies of l i t e r a t u r e t o e s t a b l i s h a framework f o r the a n a l y s i s of the v a r i o u s conventions.  Once t h e v a r i a b l e s t o be used i n t h i s assessment o f convention behaviour  have been o u t l i n e d ,  examination convention  the t h e s i s  o f t h e conventions. delegates.  will  Chapter  Certain patterns  3  shift will  to a direct  profile  of delegate  the  support are  o b v i o u s l y dependent on t h e presence o f d i f f e r e n t subgroups. I f , f o r example, educated, major  Maritime  P r o t e s t a n t male  cities,  religion,  delegates  then  are a l l middle  aged,  professionals living  divisions  on t h e b a s i s  university  i n the region's  o f age, e d u c a t i o n ,  gender, o c c u p a t i o n and community s i z e a r e by d e f i n i t i o n  i m p o s s i b l e . A p r o f i l e i n d i c a t e s both t h e k i n d o f d i v i s i o n s t h a t are possible  as w e l l as whether Maritime  middle-aged, normally  seen  well  educated,  delegates  relatively  at p a r t y conventions  a r e "the s o r t of  affluent  i n Canada"  i n d i v i d u a l [s]  (Blake, C a r t y and  E r i c k s o n , 1988: 517). With t h i s p r o f i l e i t w i l l a l s o be p o s s i b l e t o t r a c e t h e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f v a r i o u s groups over time and assess the ' r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s ' o f Maritime can  c o n v e n t i o n s . As w e l l , i n f e r e n c e s  be made r e g a r d i n g t h e s o c i a l  groups  from  which t h e p a r t i e s  d e r i v e t h e i r s t r e n g t h (see Winn and McMenemy, 1976: 152-164). Chapters  4, 5 and 6 w i l l  be devoted  t o an examination  of  conventions i n each p r o v i n c e . Each chapter w i l l b e g i n by o u t l i n i n g some  of the d i s t i n c t  features  of p o l i t i c s  p r o v i n c e and w i l l then move t o an overview the  various  conventions  were  o f t h e context i n which  held  and a  chapters  will  campaign.  The b u l k  of these  empirical  analysis  o f support  outlined  i n chapter  patterns  2. As Johnston  said  i n the p a r t i c u l a r  discussion be g i v e n  along  of  each  over  t o an  the l i n e s  t o be  of n a t i o n a l  conventions  "Ideological  affinity,  social  group  membership  and  geographic  i d e n t i f i c a t i o n come r e a d i l y t o mind as c r i t e r i a t h a t might  govern  i n d i v i d u a l ' s c h o i c e s . But the e m p i r i c a l s t a t u s o f these c r i t e r i a i s a matter o f c o n t r o v e r s y " (1988: 204). These c h a p t e r s s h o u l d c l e a r up some o f t h i s c o n t r o v e r s y as i t r e l a t e s t o t h e M a r i t i m e s . I t i s important t o keep i n mind t h a t the purpose o f these examinations i s not t o e x p l a i n the outcome o f i n d i v i d u a l conventions o r t o account for  t h e v o t i n g d e c i s i o n o f each d e l e g a t e . Instead, t h e s e a r c h i s  f o r broad p a t t e r n s o f d e l e g a t e support which w i l l r e v e a l about  Maritime  politics,  the v a r i o u s  parties,  and  something leadership  conventions as such. F o l l o w i n g t h e treatment o f the i n d i v i d u a l p r o v i n c e s the t h r e e p r o v i n c e s w i l l be l i n k e d and a d i s c u s s i o n o f whether the support patterns  and the conventions  Maritime  style of p o l i t i c s  more  broadly  reflect  an  overall  or i f the p r o v i n c i a l p a t t e r n s a r e t o o  d i v e r g e n t t o suggest a r e g i o n a l p a t t e r n w i l l be undertaken. I t w i l l be c l e a r t h a t the p r o v i n c i a l p a t t e r n s can be l i n k e d and t h a t they demonstrate offers  a kind  little  of 'friends  and neighbours'  support t o those who suggest  politics  Maritime  which  politics is  changing. In  the f i n a l  chapter t h e r e w i l l be some s p e c u l a t i o n on what  the Maritime conventions i n d i c a t e about conventions i n g e n e r a l , but the primary focus w i l l be on ' f r i e n d s and neighbours' p o l i t i c s and what accounts politics  for this  pattern of p o l i t i c a l  behaviour.  may c o n t i n u e t o be marked by t r a d i t i o n a l  Maritime  d i v i s i o n s , but  t h i s i s not n e c e s s a r i l y a n e g a t i v e f e a t u r e and i s q u i t e c o n s i s t e n t  18  with  the  nature  constitute within but not i n f e r i o r be  of Maritime  society.  Canada a d i s t i n c t  The  p o l i t i c a l society,  t o t h a t found elsewhere shown t o  reflect  Maritimes,  in  effect,  different  i n the c o u n t r y . Maritime  politics  will  stability  and  those who  e a g e r l y s i f t the g r a i n s of r e g i o n a l p o l i t i c s f o r evidence  of m o d e r n i z a t i o n are d e s t i n e d f o r disappointment.  continuity  and  19  Chapter 2 P a t t e r n s o f Delegate Support: A Framework f o r A n a l y s i s  " I don't care who does the e l e c t i n g , so l o n g as I can do the nominating." With these words one o f the denizens o f t h e infamous American  'boss  system'  h i g h l i g h t e d one o f t h e key elements i n  North. American p a r t y p o l i t i c s : the r e l e g a t i o n o f the c i t i z e n to s e l e c t i n g from among candidates  voter  anointed by a p a r t i c u l a r p a r t y .  Primary reforms i n America have i n v o l v e d many v o t e r s i n the leadership their  s e l e c t i o n process  l e a d e r s at conventions  but i n Canada most  parties  choose  composed o f one or two thousand p a r t y  a c t i v i s t s . Most v o t e r s remain o u t s i d e o f the l e a d e r s h i p s e l e c t i o n process.  The impact  literature  of t h i s  on Canadian  may  politics  be  substantial since,  unambiguously  points  as the  out, the  p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s i s dominated by p a r t y l e a d e r s . V o t e r s do not have a say i n who the l e a d e r s are, they merely get t o s e l e c t which o f the p a r t y l e a d e r s they most want t o l e a d t h e i r country o r p r o v i n c e . Perhaps one should say which l e a d e r they are most w i l l i n g t o accept given the a l t e r n a t i v e s . Given surprising support  the importance that  of leadership  the attempt  has occupied  to discover  political  analysts  selection patterns  i t i s not of  s i n c e the f i r s t  delegate federal  l e a d e r s h i p convention was h e l d i n 1919. However, r e f e r e n c e s t o such patterns  i n the p o l i t i c a l  science  somewhat haphazard. That i s ,  literature  a r e i n f r e q u e n t and  such r e f e r e n c e s a r e o f t e n a s i d e s i n  20 studies  of  a  more  e x c e p t i o n was  general  an a r t i c l e  nature.  Until  recently,  the  major  by Krause and Leduc on v o t i n g behaviour  and e l e c t o r a l s t r a t e g i e s at the 1976  Conservative  convention.  Krause and Leduc suggest t h a t : " i f a u s e f u l analogue t o the p o l i t i c a l behaviour more  likely  elections,  to  be  of convention d e l e g a t e s i s t o be found, i n the  area  of mass p o l i t i c a l  i t is  behaviour  and  f o r Canadian p a r t y c o n v e n t i o n s . . . have come t o resemble  m i n i - e l e c t i o n s , c o n t e s t e d i n the same manner as o t h e r e l e c t i o n s but involving short,  a much s m a l l e r  they  concluded  intraparty  that  electorate"  (1979:102).  l e a d e r s h i p conventions  e l e c t i o n s and t h a t s t u d i e s of conventions  In  resemble mass  s h o u l d focus on many of  the same v a r i a b l e s . More r e c e n t l y , George P e r l i n ' s  P a r t y Democracy  i n Canada  p r o v i d e d the most s y s t e m a t i c i n v e s t i g a t i o n of convention  behaviour  ever p r e s e n t e d . Drawing on  national  conventions  s c i e n t i s t s pursued more normative explicitly  of  and  1984,  a  of d e l e g a t e s t o the number  a r e s e a r c h agenda t h a t not  aspects  at the  1983  surveys  of  of such  variables  political  o n l y d i s c u s s e d the  leadership selection  impact  of  as  but  also  looked  ideology, region,  i n s i d e r / o u t s i d e r , c l a s s , gender and age. T h e i r r e s e a r c h c o n s t i t u t e s a  c o n s i d e r a b l e advancement  i n the  understanding  of  intra  party  d i v i s i o n s and one t h a t h e l p s i n f o r m the approach of t h i s t h e s i s . In literature  this on  chapter, voting  a  at  review  will  be  undertaken  l e a d e r s h i p conventions  of  the  i n Canada.  The  purpose i s t o o u t l i n e the v a r i a b l e s which must be i n v e s t i g a t e d i n a convention  study. As w e l l ,  the l i t e r a t u r e  on Maritime  the importance  politics  will  of such v a r i a b l e s i n  be examined.  This  will  21 p r o v i d e a framework f o r d e c i d i n g which v a r i a b l e s should be examined i n an attempt t o conventions. the  d i s c e r n p a t t e r n s of delegate support at Maritime  Moreover, t h e review w i l l generate e x p e c t a t i o n s as t o  potential  impact  various variables  might  have  on delegate  voting. In keeping with studies  of l e a d e r s h i p  region,  religion  and p a r t i e s , were In Fielding, split  conventions  have  focused  1  on  conventions,  d i v i d e d by these matters.  rumours abounded o f an e t h n i c ,  i n t h e i r support bases.  extent  attention  and e t h n i c i t y . From the beginning,  1919, when Mackenzie King was s e l e c t e d  Roman C a t h o l i c s , large  t h e l i t e r a t u r e on g e n e r a l v o t i n g b e h a v i o u r ,  Francophones  overlapped.  over W i l l i a m  r e l i g i o u s and  regional  King, i t was s a i d , was favoured by and Quebecers,  Fielding's  groups which t o a  affiliation  with  the Union  government l e f t him unpopular with the ' L a u r i e r L i b e r a l s ' who were predominantly French, Roman C a t h o l i c s from Quebec (Courtney, 1973: 63-72) . However, t h e Quebec d e l e g a t i o n d i d not have a candidate o f t h e i r own i n terms o f the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s d e s c r i b e d . The reason f o r this,  L e d e r l e suggests,  leader  must  be an E n g l i s h  Protestant's Pearson/Martin Protestant  ' t u r n ' (1947: convention  and French  realized  Protestant, that 90). Ward,  affirms  Catholic  i n writing  the importance alternation  that  i t was  t h e new  an E n g l i s h  on  of an  t h e 1958 English  with t h e a d d i t i o n a l  See f o r example C l a r k e t a l . 1980, A l f o r d and 1970, M e i s e l 1956, 1962 and 1972.  1  1962  i s because they  1962, Schwartz  22 insight  that  the  assessment, t h i s Mr.  Martin,  a  French  Catholic  a l t e r n a t i o n had  Catholic  from  i s to  be  from  as i t s e f f e c t  delegates  Canada  like  would  be  l e a d e r s h i p " (1958: 10).  Subsequent a n a l y s i s by R e g e n s t r i e f , i n 1968, r u l e of a l t e r n a t i o n was  In h i s  t h a t "anyone  E n g l i s h speaking  permanently d i s q u a l i f i e d from the L i b e r a l  Quebec.  suggested  that  not accepted by the m a j o r i t y of  this  Liberal  (1969:120).  The  e a r l y C o n s e r v a t i v e conventions  were not  s u b j e c t t o the  same degree of a t t e n t i o n perhaps because they were n e i t h e r f i r s t , nor i n power. I t i s c l e a r , though, t h a t the C o n s e r v a t i v e s d i d not r o t a t e t h e i r l e a d e r s h i p by e t h n i c i t y , r e l i g i o n , or r e g i o n . T h i s has not prevented s p e c u l a t i o n on the importance at Tory  of e t h n i c i t y and r e g i o n  conventions.  With t h i s i n mind, i t i s i n s t r u c t i v e t o Francophone has similar  vein,  ever c o n t e s t e d a the  t o Diefenbaker that  such  shown by  1956  of  John  Diefenbaker's  one In a name  convention combined with the a n t i p a t h y  the Quebec d e l e g a t i o n i n 1956  traditional  Conservative gatherings The  Conservative convention.  mispronunciation  d u r i n g the wartime Bracken  note t h a t o n l y  variables  were  point  out  not  insignificant  at  252,  278-279).  (Diefenbaker 1975:  C o n s e r v a t i v e and  1958  Liberal  conventions  mark an  important boundary f o r p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s . A l l a n a l y s e s of these conventions,  and  observations, Each  insider  subsequent  behavioral  those  tool  preceding  were  based  on  personal  i n f o r m a t i o n , or i n t e r v i e w s w i t h n o t a b l e s .  federal of  them,  convention  survey  has  research.  been The  studied using  pre-survey  the  analyses  23 indicated that delegate  students of p o l i t i c s — i f  voting  r e l i g i o u s and The  behaviour—would  cleavages of  decisions (1980:  well  i n f l u e n c e of these v a r i a b l e s was  province  were t o to  understand  examine  ethnic,  regional variables.  s t u d i e s of the 1967 social  do  they  and 1976 and  Conservative  delegate  origin  was  followed  voting  most  by  c o n v e n t i o n s . In a n a l y z i n g  choice,  strongly  ethnic  confirmed by P e r l i n i n  and  he  discovered  associated  religious  with  that voting  characteristics  143).  Region: References t o the abound i n the study  aimed  usually  impact of r e g i o n a l i s m  leadership  literature.  specifically  come  Nonetheless,  in it  f e a t u r e s of the First,  the is  region. examples falling 1983:  work  cull  with  from  has  the  been  references  another  the  no  focus.  literature  two  be what i n the American l i t e r a t u r e i s  T h i s i s a c a n d i d a t e w i t h no p r o s p e c t  attracts disproportionate  MacEachen this  in  1968  and  this  Second i s the  category  with as  well  in  Wilson  of  support from h i s home 197 6 and  (Martin,  provide Crombie Gregg  and  the  best  in  1983  Perlin,  100).  more g e n e r a l  t e n d t o do b e t t e r with v o t e r s Perlin  Nowlan  phenomenon,  145-146; Leduc, 1971:  convention,  a  and  patterns  regional factor.  still  into  to  However, t h e r e  phenomenon  of  possible  a candidate may  of  this  middle  known as a ' f a v o r i t e son.' v i c t o r y who  at  on v o t i n g  discovered  r e g i o n a l e f f e c t . A l l candidates  from t h e i r home r e g i o n . that  the  three  most  In the  1967  successful  candidates leading  d i d best  him  significant  to  among the d e l e g a t e s  conclude  factor  in  that  rather  unevenly  (1971: 111).  from  voting  their  ties  home r e g i o n s  were  behaviour"  clearly  (1980:  t h a t c a n d i d a t e s "drew t h e i r  among the  T h i s was  "regional  delegate  S i m i l a r l y , Leduc found i n 1968  from  delegates  of  the  confirmed by March, who  ten  a  140).  support  provinces"  noted t h a t Trudeau  r e c e i v e d a preponderance of h i s support from  Quebec, and Wearing,  who  of Maritime  indicated  t h a t Winters  (March, 1976:  5; Wearing, 1968:  where Krause received  and  Leduc  more than  a high  of  their  i n 1983  level  that  seven  votes  from  and 1984,  the  choice"  (1988:  It  most  is  important  factor  of  the  their  Courtney  among the demographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s  remains  support  9). T h i s t r e n d c o n t i n u e d i n  determined  half  (1979: 119). F i n a l l y , "that  had  candidates home r e g i o n  and P e r l i n  found  of d e l e g a t e s , r e g i o n  a s s o c i a t e d with  their  Voting  138).  clear,  then,  that  regionalism  influences  v o t i n g at n a t i o n a l l e a d e r s h i p conventions. T h i s i s not  delegate  surprising  g i v e n the s i g n i f i c a n c e of r e g i o n a l i s m i n Canadian p o l i t i c s . not  clear  although,  that  this  i n the  Adamson r e f e r s  1976  only  should study  also  be  available  true  of  Maritime  of a Maritime  It i s  politics  convention,  t o rumours of a s p l i t along ' r e g i o n a l ' l i n e s  (1972:  2) . Blake, helps  i n h i s a n a l y s i s of r e g i o n a l i s m and v o t i n g p a t t e r n s ,  make t h i s understandable.  principal  manifestations  behaviour:  the h i s t o r i c a l  of  He suggests t h a t t h e r e a r e : regionalism  association  in  Canadian  "two  voting  of p a r t i c u l a r p a r t i e s  with  25 certain noted  regions, in  groups"  the  and the v a r i a t i o n s  party  (1972:  regionalism,  support  59).  from r e g i o n t o r e g i o n  propensities  Using  Blake's  i t i s apparent t h a t  of  first  particular  social  manifestation  p o l i t i c s . A perusal of p r o v i n c i a l v o t i n g returns  World War  II makes c l e a r  different This  different  parties  areas of each p r o v i n c e . i s most  striking  i n New  Brunswick  where the  and  the L i b e r a l s  (Fitzpatrick,  i n southwestern Nova  the C o n s e r v a t i v e s a l o n g the North  Stewart, 1985: less distinct rough  Liberals  121) but i t i s a l s o e v i d e n t i n the r e g i o n a l support f o r the  CCF/NDP on Cape Breton I s l a n d , Scotia  since  are s t r o n g e r i n  dominate i n the North and the T o r i e s i n the South, 1978:  of  regionalism i s also a factor i n  Maritime  that  often  county  322; Camp, 1979:  Shore  (Adamson,and  112). While r e g i o n a l p a t t e r n s are  on P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d , the staunch maintenance of e q u a l i t y — w h i c h makes 2  mockery of e q u a l  the  Island  legislature  a  r e p r e s e n t a t i o n — i n d i c a t e s the c o n t i n u e d s t r e n g t h  of r e g i o n a l b o u n d a r i e s . It  is  impossible  to  determine  whether  Blake's  second  m a n i f e s t a t i o n of r e g i o n a l i s m can be found i n the M a r i t i m e s . Aucoin remarked on Nova S c o t i a i n been  conducted  provincial  by  voting  1972 t h a t no survey r e s e a r c h "has ever  political  scientists  or  behaviour"  (1972: 25).  His  others  respecting  comments,  as  they  A f t e r a f i e r c e b a t t l e over r e d i s t r i b u t i o n i n the middle of the s i x t i e s the composition of the I s l a n d l e g i s l a t u r e was m o d i f i e d by i n c r e a s i n g the number of members from Queens county from 10 t o 12 w h i l e the o t h e r two c o u n t i e s kept 10 members each. Queens county has about h a l f of the I s l a n d ' s p o p u l a t i o n w h i l e P r i n c e county c o n t a i n s another 35%. Members from Kings county r e s i s t e d a l l attempts t o reduce the number of members from t h a t county. 2  r e l a t e t o p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s , remain t r u e of Nova S c o t i a and equally  valid  i n reference  t o the  other  Maritime p r o v i n c e s .  r e g i o n a l v a r i a t i o n s i n the p a r t i s a n support p a t t e r n s s o c i a l groups remain a q u e s t i o n Nonetheless, politics  that  divisions:  there  suggests  localism.  yet t o be  i s one a  The  feature  strong  of p a r t i c u l a r  of Maritime  on  Thus  asked.  possibility  literature  are  PEI  society  of  and  'regional'  makes  clear  that  p a r t i c u l a r l y c l o s e t i e s e x i s t between p o l i t i c i a n s and v o t e r s . With such  a  small  acquaintances  population  among the  candidates  voters  for  g r a n t e d the w i l l of t h e i r c o n s t i t u e n t s . Thus, e l e c t i o n c o n t e s t s  are  New  Brunswick,  local  (MacKinnon, 1978:  F i t z p a t r i c k has  constituencies  and  i f elected,  substantial  cannot take  s a i d to be h i g h l y l o c a l i z e d  and,  possess  pointed  indicated  ' o u t s i d e r s ' would be u n l i k e l y t o win  237).  out  that  the  parochialism  candidates  who  of  were  (1978: 124) . F i n a l l y , Beck has  argued t h a t Nova S c o t i a n c o n s t i t u e n c i e s are r e s e r v e d and  Similarly, in  t h a t an o u t s i d e r would l i k e l y be  for local  men  regarded as a 'carpetbagger'  (1978: 197) . What politics.  this  suggests  Observers  who  Maritimes o f t e n miss the relevant.  An  outsider  p a r t i c u l a r community  is  a  pervasive  stress  the  be  someone  (Bruce, 1988:  f r i e n d l i n e s s notwithstanding,  are  62,  intense  i n t e r n a l competition.  was  Maritime  within  the  is particularly not  63). O u t s i d e r s ,  often  As  that  who  regarded with  Moreover, p o l i t i c s w i t h i n each p r o v i n c e has an  to  similarities  sense of b e l o n g i n g can  localism  born  in  a  superficial suspicion.  r e f l e c t e d and enhanced  Bruce has  pointed  out,  areas  27 were o f t e n competing  f o r such goods as wharves and breakwaters  c o m p e t i t i o n s were thus zero sum. d e l i v e r the goods This within  L o c a l p o l i t i c i a n s were expected t o  (1988: 35). .  localism,  a  indulged i n a r e l a t i v e l y  traditional  ideological  divisions,  neighbours'  kind  political  culture  rural  that  suggests a p o s s i b i l i t y  of r e g i o n a l i s m . F r i e n d s and  term used by V.O.  votes  declined  i n c r e a s e d . He politics that  on  friends  importance  as  the  irrelevancies and  contains  few and  neighbours  the  was  (1949) .  candidates  huge votes distance  in their  from  neighbours  concluded  appeal  can  "The  southern  local  their  rather p e j o r a t i v e l y and  in  areas,  local  area  as a s t y l e chances  assume  of are  overriding  o n l y i n an immature p o l i t i c s i n which i s s u e s are e i t h e r  n o n e x i s t e n t or b l u r r e d " Maritime  gubernatorial  referred to t h i s  based  the  that  primaries collected  that  and  Key t o d e s c r i b e p a t t e r n s of l o c a l i s t i c support he  found  Democratic  setting  for a 'friends  d i s c o v e r e d i n h i s a n a l y s i s of southern p o l i t i c s Key  and  (1949: 110) . Wilson, i n a r e c e n t a r t i c l e on  r e g i o n a l i s m , e x p l i c i t l y t a r r e d the r e g i o n w i t h the phrase  "political  immaturity"  at Maritime l e a d e r s h i p  (1989: 376)  and,  as w i l l become apparent,  conventions i s s u e s are e i t h e r n o n e x i s t e n t  or b l u r r e d . Indeed, the word immature i s one t h a t c a l l s t o mind the l a b e l of ' p r e i n d u s t r i a l ' o f t e n p l a c e d on Maritime p o l i t i c s (Wilson, 1974:  451). The f r i e n d s and neighbours e f f e c t has been found i n a number  of non-southern England.  All  settings of  these  including  Ireland,  settings  are  New  fairly  Zealand  and  traditional  New and  28 r e l a t i v e l y r u r a l . Moreover, t h e e f f e c t was d i s p l a y e d i n s i t u a t i o n s outside  the  realm  conventions,  of  obviously,  inter  party  are outside  competition.  t h e realm  Maritime  of i n t e r  party  c o m p e t i t i o n and are s e t i n p o l i t i e s t h a t are f a i r l y t r a d i t i o n a l and r e l a t i v e l y r u r a l . Given t h e s t r e n g t h o f l o c a l i s m and t h e s u s p i c i o n of  outsiders,  one should  friends  and neighbours  Maritime  conventions.  not be  division  surprised  to discover that  a  i s a l a r g e p a r t o f t h e s t o r y at  Religion: The impact o f r e l i g i o n at n a t i o n a l l e a d e r s h i p conventions has received  surprising  c o r r e l a t i o n with the  Liberal  theory  which  little  attention,  notwithstanding  i t s high  broader p a r t i s a n c h o i c e and i t s i n i t i a l  alternation posits  process.  a decline  r e l i g i o n as a s o c i e t y 'develops'  I t may be t h a t  i n the  role i n  modernization  political  importance of  (Wilson, 1974: 474; Agnew, 1987:  3) l e a d s a n a l y s t s t o i n f e r t h a t i t would be o f l i t t l e  r e l e v a n c e at  a  This  relatively  elite  g a t h e r i n g such  supported by r e s e a r c h .  as a c o n v e n t i o n .  i s not  3  The L i b e r a l t r a d i t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i n g l e a d e r s by r e l i g i o n may have passed w i t h the s e l e c t i o n o f Turner, but t h e r e i s no evidence t h a t r e l i g i o n i s i n c i d e n t a l t o d e l e g a t e v o t i n g behaviour. at  t h e 1976 C o n s e r v a t i v e convention, P e r l i n  association Party  of the r e l i g i o u s  Democracy  i n Canada  division  directed  no  found  with  Indeed,  an a l b e i t weak  vote  (1980: 143).  specific  attention to  F o r a s i m i l a r d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e a t t i t u d e s h e l d by many r e s e a r c h e r s r e g a r d i n g the p o l i t i c a l r e l e v a n c e o f r e l i g i o n i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s see Fowler, 1985. 3  29 r e l i g i o n although Johnston, i n h i s d i s c u s s i o n of the f i n a l c h o i c e at  each convention, i n d i c a t e d a  prefer  C h r e t i e n i n 1984  and  s l i g h t tendency  avoid  c a u t i o n s us t o remember t h a t  Crosbie  there i s a  c o r r e l a t i o n " among such a t t r i b u t e s as  f o r Catholics to  i n 1983.  Still,  "high degree  of  he  inter  C a t h o l i c i s m , French a n c e s t r y  and Quebec r e s i d e n c y making i t necessary t o i n t e r p r e t any r e l i g i o u s influence cautiously While leadership  little  (1988: 223). attention  is  given  conventions, much i s warranted  religion  in  national  i n a study of Maritime  conventions. The Maritimes has been d e s c r i b e d as Canada's Belt'  and  intimate  religion  and  Maritime  politics  have  always  r e l a t i o n s h i p . In Wilson's study of the Canadian  'Bible had  an  political  c u l t u r e s he c l a s s i f i e d the A t l a n t i c p a r t y systems as mainly Type I systems i n which r e l i g i o n  i s one  of the main cleavages and  found  t h a t " r e l i g i o u s a f f i l i a t i o n appears t o have a c o n s i d e r a b l e impact" (1974:  478).  Similarly,  reluctantly indicate  Adamson  and  Stewart,  writing  in  t h a t r e l i g i o n has a " l i n g e r i n g impact"  Chandler and Chandler, i n one of the few works between p a r t y p r e f e r e n c e and r e l i g i o n ,  to t e s t  (327).  relations  found t h a t every  p a r t y d i d b e t t e r among one r e l i g i o u s group than the  1985,  Maritime  other  (1979:  47-68) . Maritime  conventions  themselves  have  not  been  free  of  r e l i g i o u s s t r i f e . The Nova S c o t i a L i b e r a l s a l t e r n a t e t h e i r l e a d e r s along r e l i g i o u s l i n e s and at one p o i n t t h i s p r a c t i s e helped s p l i t the  party  challenged  (Adamson, in  the  1982: well  5).  This  reported  practise  1954  was  convention.  vigorously The  1954  30 convention  pitted  a c t i n g Premier  Harold  a g a i n s t f o u r P r o t e s t a n t contenders.  Connolly,  a  Catholic,  In Camp's words:  On the f i r s t b a l l o t , Connolly was w i t h i n 58 votes of winning a m a j o r i t y , and on the second he was only 41 votes s h o r t . Henry Hicks was a d i s t a n t t h i r d , then only a poor second. But the r e s o l v e to deny Connolly the l e a d e r s h i p grew among the delegates l i k e a p h y s i c a l presence, and as candidates were e l i m i n a t e d b a l l o t a f t e r b a l l o t , t h e i r support went to H i c k s . In the growing t e n s i o n , tempers were l o s t and hard words exchanged among the L i b e r a l b r e t h r e n . No longer was l e a d e r s h i p the c e n t r a l i s s u e of the convention. Instead, i t was the matter of r e l i g i o n (1979: 151) .  Yet  in spite  of  r e l i g i o n on Maritime  such  strong  politics,  indications  of the  impact  a p e r c e p t i o n i s emerging t h a t  of such  matters are of d e c l i n i n g s i g n i f i c a n c e . Adamson and Stewart used the phrase ' l i n g e r i n g ' to d e s c r i b e the contemporary p o l i t i c a l i n f l u e n c e of r e l i g i o n and Adamson, i n an a r t i c l e e n t i t l e d " A t l a n t i c Canada: Modernization region  has  in a Traditional  modernized—a  urbanization,  and  Climate",  trend  stronger  as  sharp  in  New  indicated  support  d e c l i n e d i n p o l i t i c a l relevance Brunswick  has  argued t h a t as  by  f o r the  economic  NDP—  religion  PEI  but  in  Nova  Scotia,  modernization  i s most advanced, i t i s noteworthy. As he  "At  religion  one  time  played  growth,  (1987: 222). The d e c l i n e may  or  an  important  role  the  has  not be where  concluded  i n Nova S c o t i a n  p o l i t i c s a l s o , but now modernization seems t o have taken precedence and  religion  recruitment  is and  no  longer  selection  of  an  important  candidates"  determinant (Adamson,  Others have a l s o advanced the n o t i o n t h a t p o l i t i c s  1987:  in  the 222).  i n the r e g i o n  31 is was  changing. Bellamy claimed t h a t the uniqueness  of the Maritimes  "being s u b t l y eroded by the processes of change"(1976: 3)  Conley  and  changing" entails, erode  Smith  have argued  (1985: 245) . While  t h a t Maritime p o l i t i c s  important  style  i s "clearly  i t i s not c l e a r what e x a c t l y change  i t seems l i k e l y t h a t those who  the t r a d i t i o n a l  and  sense i t b e l i e v e i t w i l l  of p o l i t i c s  of which r e l i g i o n  i s an  part.  Uncertainty importance  of  thus  religion  surrounds  questions  i n Maritime  dealing  politics.  with  Certainly  the  it  was  important i n the past but does i t remain so? Is i t of d i m i n i s h e d or diminishing Brunswick  importance?  or the Island?  Is i t weaker i n Nova S c o t i a than i n While the i n f l u e n c e of r e l i g i o n may  'mellowed' somewhat, t h e r e i s l i t t l e  empirical  New have  evidence t h a t i t  has of yet disappeared. T h i s study p r o v i d e s a r a r e o p p o r t u n i t y t o gather evidence on t h i s  i s s u e . At present, i n the absence  of any  c o m p e l l i n g evidence t o the c o n t r a r y one should expect r e l i g i o n t o be an important source of d i v i s i o n s at Maritime  conventions.  Ethnicity: Once  more  a  national  elections  studies.  The  variable has  correlated  received  little  most impressive i n d i c a t o r  highly  with  attention  voting  in  i n convention  of i t s prominence i s the  continued L i b e r a l a l t e r n a t i o n of l e a d e r s h i p between Anglophones and Francophones.  However as noted e a r l i e r , R e g e n s t r i e f has shown t h a t  L i b e r a l s are not Nonetheless,  w i l d l y enamoured of t h i s the  ethnic  factor  not  alternation. only  affects  who  is  chosen, but a l s o a p p a r e n t l y how d e l e g a t e s vote. March, i n h i s study  32 of the 1968 L i b e r a l "While  convention,  found  that  on the f i r s t  ballot  Trudeau a t t r a c t e d only 24.5% of t h e E n g l i s h d e l e g a t e s , he  a t t r a c t e d 42.1% of the French d e l e g a t e s " with no other candidate getting  even  ethnicity  one-fifth  i s also  o f the French  a factor  support  (1976:  5 ) . That  at C o n s e r v a t i v e conventions  i s again  suggested by P e r l i n who found an a s s o c i a t i o n between e t h n i c i t y and voting  i n 1976  (1980: 143) . S t i l l ,  Courtney  and P e r l i n  found no  s i g n i f i c a n t evidence of an a s s o c i a t i o n between e t h n i c i t y and v o t i n g at  either  the 1983 or 1984 n a t i o n a l  conventions. While  a l s o i n d i c a t e d only a s p o r a d i c and unsystematic  Johnston  e t h n i c e f f e c t he  c a u t i o n e d t h a t t h i s may have been due t o the p e c u l i a r s t r u c t u r e o f the  competition.  Most  notably  the f a c t  that  it  was  a u s p i c i o u s time f o r C h r e t i e n t o r a l l y French support E t h n i c i t y , then, may remain  not an  (1988: 220).  important at n a t i o n a l conventions.  It might be expected t h a t e t h n i c i t y would not be important i n the Maritimes where the F r e n c h / E n g l i s h dichotomy does not have the same s i g n i f i c a n c e . Obviously, New Brunswick i s the e x c e p t i o n . As Dyck  e x p l a i n s r e g a r d i n g the New  "ethnic  politics  have  been  Brunswick  fairly  political  prominent"  situation,  (1986:  S i m i l a r l y , Aunger, i n the i n t r o d u c t i o n t o h i s comparison and New Brunswick, the L i b e r a l s  declared that  have appeared  140).  of U l s t e r  "Since the t u r n of the century,  as the p a r t y of the French,  C o n s e r v a t i v e s as the p a r t y o f the E n g l i s h "  and the  (1981: 22). Indeed, he  goes on t o suggest t h a t w i t h i n the L i b e r a l i t s e l f "The i n c r e a s i n g l y prominent  r o l e p l a y e d by Acadians i n p o l i t i c s s i n c e the e l e c t i o n o f  L o u i s Robichaud  i n 1960 makes the establishment o f a t r a d i t i o n o f  33 a l t e r n a t i o n between E n g l i s h and French l e a d e r s extremely p r o b a b l e " (1981:  157). The  1985  s e l e c t i o n of Frank McKenna t o succeed Doug  Young seems t o i n d i c a t e t h a t t h i s a l t e r n a t i o n i s more an example of academics making p a t t e r n s of c o i n c i d e n c e than an i n v i o l a t e L i b e r a l tradition. The C o n s e r v a t i v e s have a l s o attempted t o come t o terms with the b i l i n g u a l possible—  an  nature  of the p r o v i n c e by m a i n t a i n i n g — a s much as  ethnic  balance  in  their  cabinets,  supporting  o f f i c i a l b i l i n g u a l i s m and r e f u s i n g t o g i v e v o i c e t o the v o c i f e r o u s anti-French (Aunger,  biases  1981:  of  145,  a  m i n o r i t y of  155).  Still,  New  they  Francophone l e a d e r or make l a s t i n g  Brunswick have  yet  Anglophones to  i n r o a d s i n t o the  select  a  Francophone  vote. The Edward  Francophone  Island  do  not  minorities approach  Acadians r e p r e s e n t i n New 10% of each In  i n Nova  the  Scotia  significant  and  on  Prince  proportion that  Brunswick. However, they c o n s t i t u t e over  p o p u l a t i o n and possess deep r o o t s (Bellamy, 1976:  Nova S c o t i a , Chandler and  Chandler found t h a t the L i b e r a l s were  s t r o n g e r w i t h the n o n - ' B r i t i s h ' v o t e r s and t h a t the r e v e r s e t r u e of the I s l a n d to  12).  (1979: 49). Nonetheless, l i t t l e  suggest t h a t e t h n i c d i v i s i o n s are e s p e c i a l l y  was  evidence e x i s t s  salient in either  p r o v i n c e and i t would be s u r p r i s i n g t o f i n d e t h n i c i t y an important source of d i v i s i o n at conventions. In i t t o be very i n f l u e n t i a l i n New  c o n t r a s t , one would expect  Brunswick.  Social Status: Attempts have a l s o been made t o analyze the impact of s o c i a l  34 s t a t u s or economic v a r i a b l e s on l e a d e r s h i p c h o i c e . Yet the g e n e r a l c o n c l u s i o n i s t h a t t h i s d i v i s i o n i s of l i m i t e d v a l u e i n a c c o u n t i n g f o r d i f f e r e n t l e a d e r s h i p c h o i c e s . There i s no evidence t h a t c l a s s — o r the i n d i c a t o r s t h a t have been used t o measure i t : occupation,  e d u c a t i o n and  self  perception—is really  social income,  useful in  d i f f e r e n t i a t i n g candidate c h o i c e . T h i s l a c k of evidence s h o u l d not be s u r p r i s i n g . As Mintz pointed  out  convention  "the  description any  1988:  costs  of  attending  a  leadership  r e i n f o r c e s the p l u t o c r a t i c nature of p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s "  (1983: 20). Indeed,  "By  mounting  every convention a n a l y s t would agree w i t h the  of convention d e l e g a t e s which suggests  s t a n d a r d they c o n s t i t u t e a socio-economic  60). In s h o r t , p a r t of the reason why  that elite"  (Carty,  class differences  not appear at conventions i s because the lower or working are not r e p r e s e n t e d at these e l i t e g a t h e r i n g s . i n an a n a l y s i s of the 1984 working  has  However,  do  classes Stewart,  L i b e r a l convention, d i d d i s c o v e r t h a t  c l a s s d e l e g a t e s were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more l i k e l y t o support  C h r e t i e n and the l e v e l of support f o r Turner i n c r e a s e d w i t h c l a s s position  (1988:  161).  Traditionally,  social  class  has  been  of  little  u n d e r s t a n d i n g Maritime p o l i t i c s . As Wilson has argued clear...that  in...the  virtually  n o t h i n g t o do  478) .  well,  As  the  Atlantic  provinces... s o c i a l  with v a r i a t i o n s  Chandlers,  in  value  "It i s quite class  in partisanship"  attempting  to  in  has  (1974:  assess  the  i n f l u e n c e of income and o c c u p a t i o n , concluded t h a t "In none of the Atlantic  provinces  is  either  of  these  divisions  helpful  in  35 explaining  party  identification  politics... additionally  tells  subjective  us n o t h i n g about p o l i t i c a l  class  divisions  i n the  A t l a n t i c p r o v i n c e s " (1979: 42) . Yet b e f o r e s o c i a l c l a s s i s d i s m i s s e d as i r r e l e v a n t t o a study of v o t i n g p a t t e r n s at Maritime p o l i t i c s i n the Maritimes  conventions,  one  s h o u l d note t h a t  i s c a r r i e d on at a more p e r s o n a l  level.  As w e l l , the d i s t a n c e and c o s t s i n v o l v e d i n a t t e n d i n g a convention are  much  Average  lower  than  citizens  then,  Maritime  convention.  based d i v i s i o n s  they  would  may  It  be  be  at  national  more l i k e l y  to p a r t i c i p a t e  i s therefore possible for  t o e x i s t . Nonetheless,  conventions. in a  economically  many such d i v i s i o n s would  be almost a s t o n i s h i n g . Institutional  Divisions:  I n v e s t i g a t i o n s of the  potential  impact  convention of  what  can  v o t i n g have a l s o p o i n t e d out be  termed  'institutional'  d i v i s i o n s . At most modern conventions c e r t a i n groups have some form of p a r t i c i p a t i o n  constitutionally  t h r e e of these groups,  based  on age,  enshrined.  Usually there  are  gender or d e l e g a t e type.  In  terms of d e l e g a t e type, t h e r e are b a s i c a l l y two kinds of d e l e g a t e s . In W o o l s t e n c r o f t ' s f o r m u l a t i o n , t h e r e are d e l e g a t e s "who  are  because of o f f i c e or p o s i t i o n ;  elected"  (1986:4). are only  The  and those who  have been  common p e r c e p t i o n i s t h a t d e l e g a t e s t o  chosen d e m o c r a t i c a l l y at c o n s t i t u e n c y meetings, partially  t r u e . At  the  1983  Tory  convention,  such  conventions but 47%  this  is  of  the  d e l e g a t e s were ' e x - o f f i c i o ' or n o n - e l e c t e d . The same i s t r u e of 46% of the 1984  L i b e r a l delegates  (Carty, 1988:84).  The  non-elected  Councillors, executive,  or,  T r a i n s Run  that  may  be  MPs,  Senators,  Privy  MLAs, p a r l i a m e n t a r y c a n d i d a t e s , members o f t h e p a r t y i n the  large'—delegates the  delegates  on  case  of  s e l e c t e d by Time",  non-elected  Conservatives,  each p r o v i n c i a l  1983:  delegates  the  4)  'delegates  executive  ("Making  T h e r e have l o n g b e e n s u s p i c i o n s  vote  differently  than  their  s e l e c t e d brethren. Diefenbaker,  to a b o l i s h the  'at l a r g e ' category because of the o p p o r t u n i t y  t o h i s o p p o n e n t s who  were  executives.  T h e r e was  little  appointing  delegates  sympathetic  (Perlin, this  1980:  87).  category  positions  I n 1983,  could  from  be  their  The delegate Brown,  chance t h a t the  "He  were  filled  solely  ( M a r t i n , G r e g g and P e r l i n ,  1983: voting  occurred  at  Murphy  delegates  e l e c t e d by  (1976: 8 0 ) . emerged that  defeat  As  the  of  the  the  1970  suggest  Quebec  that  convention riding  differential  Liberal  Claude  with  a  was  from  that  unpopular  a s s o c i a t i o n s . He  1000  (1976: 80) .  ex  officio  convention.  with  with  81,109). by  was  the  party  delegates  were  majority had  Robert  Brown  et  the  convention.  Wagner  clear  how  large'  quite  o f e l e c t e d d e l e g a t e s . In  i s w e l l known, however, i t was  victorious  Wagner  result,  the  be  candidacy  provinces  types  into  Diefenbaker  'at  account  went  e x e c u t i v e s would  ensuring  s u c c e s s f u l i n a c q u i r i n g the support words  a  this  provincial  by  striking  and  to  o f most  manipulated  most  Chodos  i n charge  attempted  C r o s b i e and M u l r o n e y d e m o n s t r a t e d  home  d e l e g a t e s s u p p o r t i n g them  i n 1967,  more  democratically  presented  at  their  of  the  i t sewn  up"  Bourassa  who  a l . maintain  hierarchy  and,  responsible  as for  a  his  37 Stewart  found  a  similar  trend  i n h i s study  o f t h e 1984  L i b e r a l c o n v e n t i o n . Although Turner u l t i m a t e l y won m a j o r i t i e s from delegates  o f both  'types'  h i g h e r l e v e l s o f support  Jean  Chretien attracted  from t h e e l e c t e d d e l e g a t e s  significantly (1988: 153).  O b v i o u s l y then, d e l e g a t e s t a t u s i s a v a r i a b l e t h a t must be examined i n order t o understand The  Liberal  d e l e g a t e support p a t t e r n s .  and C o n s e r v a t i v e p a r t i e s  i n t h e Maritimes  the same k i n d o f ex o f f i c i o p o s i t i o n s as t h e f e d e r a l p a r t i e s . w e l l , Adamson and Stewart the p a r t y l e a d e r and pronounced  other s e n i o r members  in Atlantic  'pronounced p o s i t i o n ' that t h e i r  have p o i n t e d out t h a t t h e of the  Canada" (1985: 328). I t may makes t h e i r  voting either  have As  " p o s i t i o n of p a r t y i s more be t h a t  unique  this  or means  i n f l u e n c e i s so great t h a t a l l d e l e g a t e s f o l l o w t h e i r  l e a d . In any case, i t i s q u i t e p o s s i b l e f o r d i v i s i o n s o f t h i s type to e x i s t at Maritime  conventions.  One might expect age d i v i s i o n s t o be important at l e a d e r s h i p conventions. A f t e r a l l ,  the youth are guaranteed  a s p e c i f i c number  of p o s i t i o n s i n each c o n s t i t u e n c y d e l e g a t i o n while u n i v e r s i t y c l u b s are  also  entitled  t o send  delegates  ("Making t h e T r a i n s Run on  Time", 1983: 4 ) . As w e l l , Krause and Leduc argue t h a t t h e d i v i s i o n of a p a r t y by " o l d and young i s an important p a r t o f the f a b r i c of Canadian p a r t y p o l i t i c s and cannot be n e g l e c t e d i n any a n a l y s i s o f convention delegate  behaviour"(1979: voting  in  197 6  116). revealed  Indeed, that  on  their  analysis  average  of  delegates  s u p p o r t i n g C l a r k were younger than those b a c k i n g Wagner. I n t e r e s t i n g l y , a study o f the 1983 C o n s e r v a t i v e convention by  38 Martin,  Gregg  Mulroney's  and P e r l i n  discovered  an  age  cleavage  i n Brian  support.  Of the approximately 450 votes t h a t Mulroney r e c e i v e d outside Quebec, about 47% were cast by youth d e l e g a t e s - a l m o s t h a l f . Since the youth accounted f o r o n l y a t h i r d o f a l l d e l e g a t e s t o the l e a d e r s h i p convention, Mulroney enjoyed c o n s i d e r a b l y more success w i t h them than he d i d w i t h the s e n i o r s (1983: 88). P e r l i n f o l l o w e d up t h i s f i n d i n g w i t h a more academic s t u d y — t h i s time w i t h D e s j a r d i n s and S u t h e r l a n d . T h i s a n a l y s i s confirmed the e a r l i e r f i n d i n g and a l s o determined t h a t , i n 1984, Turner was l e s s s u c c e s s f u l w i t h the younger d e l e g a t e s (1988: 198) . Age d i f f e r e n c e s , then, are not i r r e l e v a n t i n an a n a l y s i s o f d e l e g a t e v o t i n g . There politics election  has been  little  i n the M a r i t i m e s . by Adamson  Studies  and Aucoin  m a i n t a i n s t h a t when the election  discussion of  o f t h e impact the  1970  o f age on  Nova  Scotian  are the o n l y e x c e p t i o n s . Adamson  v o t i n g age was lowered t o 19 f o r the 1970  "The L i b e r a l s c o u r t e d and won the new v o t e r s , w h i l e the  Conservatives  paid  little  attention  t o them"  (1972:  3 ) . Aucoin  supports t h i s  c o n t e n t i o n and goes even f a r t h e r c l a i m i n g t h a t the  L i b e r a l s were much more s u c c e s s f u l with v o t e r s under t w e n t y - f i v e (1972: 32) . Age elsewhere  has  not been  found  to correlate  highly  with  voting  i n the Maritimes and i t s l o n g term e f f e c t i n Nova S c o t i a  would seem t o be minimal. One might, however, expect age t o be more important at  conventions. The youth are an important  subgroup at  conventions w i t h t h e i r p a r t i c i p a t i o n c o n s t i t u t i o n a l l y e n s h r i n e d . It  c o u l d w e l l be t h a t  this  f a c t o r might  facilitate  greater bloc  39 v o t i n g amongst t h e younger d e l e g a t e s . Women, l i k e the youth and e x - o f f i c i o d e l e g a t e s , are ensured o f a  minimum  level  surprisingly,  of  representation  this potential  at  conventions.  gender gap has not  a t t e n t i o n i n convention studies.  Somewhat  a t t r a c t e d much  B r o d i e ' s e x p l i c i t examination o f  the p o s s i b i l i t y o f a gender gap a t the n a t i o n a l conventions o f 1983 and  1984 stands out as t h e s o l e example.  Her a n a l y s i s  suggested  t h a t women a t both conventions were l e s s s u p p o r t i v e o f the e v e n t u a l winner but that'women d i d not vote as a b l o c Any  difference  i n voting  between  (1988: 186) .  men  and women  i n the  Maritimes has gone unremarked. Adamson and Stewart note t h a t "The region  has been p a r t i c u l a r l y  (1985: 327), behaviour.  slow  but do not suggest  Surprisingly,  t o accept  that  women i n p o l i t i c s "  the sexes  while the Chandlers'  differ  i n voting  study f i n d s  i n d i c a t i o n o f a gender gap on P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d , t h e i r indicate  that  t h e C o n s e r v a t i v e s a r e more p o p u l a r  with women i n t h e other two p r o v i n c e s . Indeed, m a j o r i t y o f women p r e f e r t h e L i b e r a l s , men  favour the Tories  (1979:  little figures  among men than  i n Nova S c o t i a t h e  while a s l i m p l u r a l i t y of  51,52).  A d m i t t e d l y , the subset on which the Chandler study bases i t s Maritime f i g u r e s i s dangerously s m a l l . Nonetheless, the i m p l i c a t i o n exists  t h a t women may have somewhat d i f f e r e n t p a r t i s a n p r e f e r e n c e s  than men. I t would t h e r e f o r e be u s e f u l t o examine the gender gap at Maritime c o n v e n t i o n s . Nonetheless, i t would be r a t h e r s u r p r i s i n g t o discover  d i v i s i o n s i n t h i s area.  Community  Size:  40 Another treatment  variable  which  i n convention  examining  the  1967  has  received  s t u d i e s i s community  Tory  convention,  between community  t h a t i t was  very weak (1980: 143). Except  convention  literature of  element i t  the  has  size  been  community  warrants treatment  and  cursory  Perlin,  reference  v o t i n g , but  largely  size  size.  made  association  influence  somewhat  he  in  to  an  concluded  f o r t h i s r e f e r e n c e , the silent  variable.  on  With  the  possible  i t s geographic  along with the r e g i o n a l  U r b a n / r u r a l d i f f e r e n c e s have not been absent  variable.  from  Maritime  p o l i t i c s . Aucoin's study of the 1970 Nova S c o t i a n e l e c t i o n l e d him to  s t r e s s "the gains made by the L i b e r a l s i n the  metropolitan constituencies" of  Halifax-Dartmouth  (1972: 30). He commented on  the mood  change i n the more urban areas and noted the importance  housing  issue—a  subject  of  little  concern  in  the  of the  more  rural  s e c t i o n s of the p r o v i n c e . More r e c e n t l y , the New Democrats have i n c r e a s e d t h e i r support in  metro H a l i f a x  areas Indeed  at a time  of the p r o v i n c e has i n 1984  i n metro  when t h e i r been,  support  at best,  the L i b e r a l s t e m p o r a r i l y  i n the more  rural  i n a holding pattern.  became the ' t h i r d ' p a r t y  H a l i f a x while t h e i r support i n the r e s t of the p r o v i n c e  enabled them t o remain the o f f i c i a l o p p o s i t i o n . T h i s was  not the  first  time  the L i b e r a l s  suffered  from  an  urban/ r u r a l problem. F o l l o w i n g the r e s i g n a t i o n of Henry H i c k s — t h e victor  in  the  L i b e r a l s . 1957  bitter  1954  convention was  marked by "another s p l i t  religious  struggle—as  leader,  the  d e c i d e d by j u s t e l e v e n votes and  was  on the q u e s t i o n of l e a d e r s h i p , t h i s  time  an  urban-  1981:  rural  division"  (Aucoin,  1972:  see  also  Wearing,  93). I t i s c l e a r t h a t the u r b a n / r u r a l d i v i s i o n r e p r e s e n t s a  p o t e n t i a l v o t i n g cleavage, at l e a s t two  27;  provinces  perhaps  no  i n Nova S c o t i a .  u r b a n / r u r a l cleavages  because  of  regional-religious-ethnic  the  become  apparent;  pre-eminence  division  overwhelming r u r a l nature of the  have  In the other  in  New  of  Brunswick  the  and  the  Island.  Attitudes: The p o s s i b l e i n f l u e n c e of a t t i t u d i n a l d i f f e r e n c e s on v o t i n g has a l s o been i n v e s t i g a t e d at c o n v e n t i o n s . Convention a n a l y s t s seem positively  eager  t o map  the  impact  convention v o t i n g . There almost  of a t t i t u d e s  or  ideology  seems t o be a normative  on  bias that  these are the d i v i s i o n s which s h o u l d matter and s t u d i e s which found d e l e g a t e c h o i c e at  conventions t o r e p r e s e n t i d e o l o g i c a l  factions  w i t h i n a p a r t y would c r e a t e a s e n s a t i o n . Competition at l e a d e r s h i p conventions has g e n e r a l l y not been viewed as an 'engagement of p r i n c i p l e s . ' Indeed, discussion  of conventions  consequent  n e c e s s i t y of  prevent  candidates  378,386,396). I t was little  evidence  from  argued  that  creating  a  issuing  t h e r e f o r e not  of an  ideological  Smiley i n an e a r l y  convention  coalition  rules,  of  ideological  support appeals  surprising that cleavage  and  at the  would (1968:  Perlin 1967  the  and  found 1976  C o n s e r v a t i v e n a t i o n a l conventions (1980: 174). F u r t h e r , G i b b i n s and Hunzinger i n t h e i r study of d e l e g a t e v o t i n g i n A l b e r t a , argued t h a t policy  p r e f e r e n c e s had  behaviour  (1986:  14).  no  significant  There  is  thus  impact some  on  delegate voting  justification  for  downplaying  the impact  of a t t i t u d i n a l  differences  on  delegate  voting. Yet 197 6  P.C.  delegates  c o n t r a r y evidence convention claimed  i s emerging.  Krause  and Leduc  ideological  In t h e i r found  labelling  study  that  o f the  4 0% o f the  as important  i n their  voting  c h o i c e s (1979: 120). C l a r k was a b l e t o win a f o u r t h  victory  partly  because he won  "impressive m a j o r i t i e s among those  d e l e g a t e s c l a s s i f y i n g themselves (Krause  and Leduc,  ballot  t o the l e f t - c e n t r e  1979: 127). However, he a l s o  o f the p a r t y "  fought  t h e more  r i g h t wing Wagner t o a v i r t u a l stand o f f among d e l e g a t e s who p l a c e d themselves  on the r i g h t  Johnston,  i n h i s examination o f the f i n a l c h o i c e s at the 1983  and 1984 conventions, In  his  assessment  geographic that  a l s o found important of  the  and a t t i t u d i n a l  v o t i n g was  respective  o f the p a r t y .  of  social  each  based. As he concluded party  (1988: 218). In terms of i d e o l o g i c a l put themselves  weight  divisions.  v a r i a b l e s he p r o v i d e d s t r o n g  ideologically  conventions  relative  attitudinal  on the r i g h t o f t h e i r  was  divided  left  group, evidence  "At and  their right"  s e l f placement, d e l e g a t e s who p a r t y were more s u p p o r t i v e o f  Mulroney i n 1983 and o f Turner i n 1984. Moreover, v o t i n g d i v i s i o n s c o u l d be seen when d e l e g a t e o p i n i o n s on c o n t i n e n t a l i s m were taken into  account.  Briefly,  delegates  f a v o u r e d C l a r k or Turner.  who  were  pro  continentalist  Indeed, w i t h i n t h e C o n s e r v a t i v e p a r t y ,  a t t i t u d e s on b i l i n g u a l i s m were a l s o d i v i s i v e while among L i b e r a l s , the more p r o v i n c i a l i s t Turner  (Johnston,  d e l e g a t e s were p a r t i c u l a r l y  1988: 216,217).  I t i s evident  s u p p o r t i v e of that  the most  43 r e c e n t n a t i o n a l conventions have been marked by a t t i t u d i n a l l y based voting divisions. S t i l l , important i n the No  Maritimes.  controversy  marks the  Maritime p o l i t i c s . literature politics  one would not expect such d i v i s i o n s t o be  I f there  i s united,  i n the  place  i s one  i t i s on  of  ideological conflict  thing  the  on  which the  irrelevance  r e g i o n . Dyck s t a t e s t h a t  "one  of  in  Maritime  ideology  would look  to  i n vain  f o r any c o n s i s t e n t i d e o l o g i c a l d i f f e r e n c e s between the L i b e r a l s and Conservatives" ideology  nor  (1986: 167)  while Wearing m a i n t a i n s t h a t  major p o l i c y q u e s t i o n s  have much t o  do  "Neither  with  party  l i n e s — t h e l a s t b i g i s s u e t o d i v i d e L i b e r a l s and C o n s e r v a t i v e s that 89) .  of  entering  Confederation  Similarly,  politics—Beck's  the  over a hundred years  three  major  studies  The Government of Nova S c o t i a ,  of  ago"  (1981: Maritime  MacKinnon's  Government of P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d , and Thorburn's P o l i t i c s i n Brunswick—  a l l reach the  conclusion  t h a t p a r t i e s do  was  not  The New  differ  i d e o l o g i c a l l y nor  can d i f f e r e n c e s i n v o t i n g c h o i c e be  on t h a t b a s i s . One  looks i n v a i n f o r an i n d i c a t i o n t h a t i d e o l o g y i s  important i n the M a r i t i m e s . One important  at  leadership  Maritimes are matters of  T h i s b r i e f review and relating  to  leadership categories  delegate  and  variables  Political  divisions in  not measures" (Simpson, 1988:  the  172).  d i s c u s s i o n of the a t t e n t i o n v a r i a b l e s  voting  conventions  would c e r t a i n l y not expect i t to be  conventions. "men  established  and  have  received  Maritime  which  will  i n the  politics provide  the  literature highlights framework  on the for  a n a l y z i n g i n t e r n a l d i v i s i o n s at Maritime c o n v e n t i o n s . The review i s  i n s t r u c t i v e on two other counts. F i r s t , of  i t p o i n t s out t h e f a i l u r e  previous convention studies t o s y s t e m a t i c a l l y  i n v e s t i g a t e the  nature o f c o n v e n t i o n d i v i s i o n s . A s i d e from Johnston's Choice",  convention  variables.  Almost  studies  have u s u a l l y  inevitably  they  found  "The F i n a l  f o c u s e d on one o r two the v a r i a b l e s  on which  they f o c u s e d t o be important and made l i t t l e attempt t o assess t h i s importance  in relative  paucity of e m p i r i c a l The subsequent on both  terms.  Second,  the review  i n d i c a t e s the  i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e on Maritime  politics.  c h a p t e r s o f t h i s t h e s i s w i l l attempt t o move forward  fronts. A number o f v a r i a b l e s whose i n f l u e n c e on d e l e g a t e  voting  must be examined have been i d e n t i f i e d and d i s c u s s e d . As Johnston pointed  out " I d e o l o g i c a l  affinity,  social  group  and  geographic  i d e n t i f i c a t i o n come r e a d i l y t o  mind as c r i t e r i a t h a t might  i n d i v i d u a l s ' c h o i c e s . But the  e m p i r i c a l s t a t u s o f these  i s a matter o f c o n t r o v e r s y " (1988: 204). In t h e remainder thesis  the empirical  status  o f these c r i t e r i a  govern  criteria of t h i s  as they r e l a t e t o  Maritime conventions w i l l be i n v e s t i g a t e d i n o r d e r  t o develop a  better  and  understanding  politics. it  While  areas:  party  divisions  Maritime  conventions p r o v i d e a 'window' i n t o the p a r t i e s ,  i s important t o  gaze a i m l e s s l y .  of i n t e r n a l  look c a r e f u l l y through t h a t window r a t h e r than  To t h i s  end the focus w i l l  be on t h e f o l l o w i n g  45 1/ a:  Geographic  Region  b: Community  size  2 / S o c i a l Groups Traditional: a: R e l i g i o n b:  Ethnicity  Institutional: a: Delegate type b:  Age  c: Gender S o c i a l Status a: E d u c a t i o n b: Income c: C l a s s 3/ A t t i t u d i n a l  These t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s of v a r i a b l e s w i l l be i n v e s t i g a t e d i n a s y s t e m a t i c attempt t o assess the degree t o which were d i v i d e d on t h e i r v a r i o u s dimensions.  The  Maritime p a r t i e s  review c a r r i e d  out  i n t h i s chapter generates c e r t a i n e x p e c t a t i o n s as t o the p o t e n t i a l impact of these v a r i a b l e s at Maritime c o n v e n t i o n s . The e x p e c t a t i o n is  t h a t the major sources of d i v i s i o n w i t h i n the p a r t i e s can be  understood i n terms of f r i e n d s and neighbours and  ethno-religious  46 support. Such p a t t e r n s point  to  the  of support, i f they can be  continuing  importance  of  discerned,  'tradition' in  will  Maritime  p o l i t i c s . Of the l e s s t r a d i t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s , d e l e g a t e type c o u l d important  anywhere  while  variables  should be  meaningless at  community s i z e may  the  more  explicitly  class  be  related  a l l c o n v e n t i o n s . Age,  sex  have a s l i g h t impact i n Nova S c o t i a , but  and  their  i n f l u e n c e i n the other p r o v i n c e s should be extremely l i m i t e d . v a l i d i t y of these e x p e c t a t i o n s can be  determined i n the  The  following  chapters. The  selection  of  variables  c o n t r o v e r s i a l . In f a c t the suggests l o o k i n g out  for  analysis  is  scarcely  l i t e r a t u r e on s t a t e p a r t i e s i n America  at s i m i l a r v a r i a b l e s . As  Jewell  and  Olson  point  "There are s e v e r a l common bases f o r the f o r m a t i o n of f a c t i o n a l  groups  within  important regional  in  parties...An many  urban  versus  states  and  is  d i v i s i o n . . . Ethnic  and  demographic  state population  are  frequently  often  rural  the  basis  superimposed  upon  differences  of  the a  within  generational  sources of d i v i s i o n  is  among  factionalism  p a r t i e s . " As w e l l , they go on t o mention ideology, economic based groups as p o s s i b l e  distinction  (1982:  and 52-  55) . By c o n c e n t r a t i n g  on the v a r i a b l e s i n t h i s framework i t should  be p o s s i b l e t o i s o l a t e the nature of f a c t i o n s i n Maritime p a r t i e s and  determine i f i n f a c t " F a c t i o n s  group c r e a t e d  f o r and  dissolved  person f o r a s i n g l e o f f i c e " Are  Maritime  parties  may  be no more than a campaign  a f t e r the  (Jewell and  candidacy of  Olson, 1982:  factionalized,  are  a  single  52).  there  recurring  sources of d i v i s i o n , been change over  are L i b e r a l s  time,  are  different  some of the  from T o r i e s , has  questions  f o r which  there this  a n a l y s i s s h o u l d p r o v i d e answers. Before a d d r e s s i n g these  questions  directly,  The  i t i s necessary  to  identify  the  delegates.  chapter w i l l p r o v i d e a p r o f i l e of the d e l e g a t e s .  next  48  Chapter 3 Convention D e l e g a t e s : A P r o f i l e  Maritime  In t h e p a s t many s t u d i e s o f c o n v e n t i o n d e l e g a t e s have drawn attention  t o the p e r s o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s  Delegates have  o f these  individuals.  been p r o f i l e d i n terms o f t h e i r s o c i a l and economic  background and t h e i r r e g i o n a l ' r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s . ' Such p r o f i l e s , implicitly  at  d e l e g a t e s are  least,  ' r e p r e s e n t a t i v e . ' That i s , whether the d e l e g a t e s i n  some way r e f l e c t a  t h e s o c i e t y f o r which they a r e t r y i n g t o s e l e c t  l e a d e r . In f a c t ,  quite  direct  convention  c a r r y with them a concern over whether the  the l i t e r a t u r e  i n i t s assessment  delegates i n socio  perform the c r u c i a l  on l e a d e r s h i p  o f the r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s of  economic terms.  The S e l e c t i o n of N a t i o n a l P a r t y Leaders,  "not a t r u e c r o s s s e c t i o n of Canadian s o c i e t y " and Thorburn  The d e l e g a t e s who  job o f l e a d e r s h i p s e l e c t i o n a r e , as Courtney  explained i n h i s c l a s s i c  Perlin  conventions i s  (1973: 119). L e l e ,  i n t h e i r study o f the 1967 and 1968 n a t i o n a l  conventions i n d i c a t e the nature o f t h i s ' n o n - r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s ' . As they put i t "delegates t o the two conventions were predominantly r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f the most p r i v i l e g e d groups and  "were  drawn  from  a  strikingly  narrow  i n Canadian  society"  socio-economic  base"  (1971:205,206). The  elite  background  o f the d e l e g a t e s  was  not  just  a  phenomenon o f the 1960s. F r i z z e l l and McPhail, with t h e b e n e f i t o f the 197 6 n a t i o n a l P.C. convention, repeated the L e l e , Thorburn  charge t h a t " a l l  s o c i o economic base"  P e r l i n and  d e l e g a t e s come from a remarkably  narrow  (1979: 20). S i m i l a r l y , Courtney and P e r l i n i n  49 an  examination  concluded  of  national  conventions  of  1983  and  1984  "In t h e i r s o c i o economic s t a t u s d e l e g a t e s are m a n i f e s t l y  unrepresentative" this  the  (1988: 128). B r o d i e i n d i c a t e d t h a t the nature of  non-representativeness  gender  (1988: 177,178) while  point  out  that  in  relates Perlin,  age  underrepresented  to  education  S u t h e r l a n d and  "people  among  income,  under  Liberal  30  delegates  and  Desjardins  were  somewhat  and  somewhat  o v e r r e p r e s e n t e d among C o n s e r v a t i v e d e l e g a t e s . More s i g n i f i c a n t l y , in  both  parties,  the  number  underrepresented"  (1988: 192).  are  middle  mainly  educated.  male, However,  demographic  of  128) . Presumably  aged,  the  would  relatively and  also  are  i n c l u d e such  r e l i g i o n and p o s s i b l y community  pointed  in a out  study  that  of  "The  the  well  note  "On  other  more  or  less  f e a t u r e s as  (1988:  language,  size.  of p r o v i n c i a l d e l e g a t e s i s l e s s  198 6 B.C.  average  was  and  characteristics"  overwhelming, but p o i n t s i n the same d i r e c t i o n . Erickson  60  conventions  affluent  Perlin  regional  Evidence of the background  over  to national  delegates  distinctive this  delegates  Delegates  Courtney  divisions  representative  ethnicity,  as  of  Social  d e l e g a t e was  Blake, Credit  the  sort  Carty  and  convention of  middle  aged, w e l l educated, r e l a t i v e l y a f f l u e n t i n d i v i d u a l u s u a l l y seen at p a r t y conventions i n Canada" the  1971  Nova S c o t i a  "were middle  aged  and  P.C.  (1988: 517). Adamson, i n  convention,  overwhelmingly  also male  notes  that  discussing delegates  P r o t e s t a n t s of  Anglo  Saxon o r i g i n with a moderately h i g h l e v e l of e d u c a t i o n and at l e a s t by Nova S c o t i a n standards w e l l t o do"  (1972: 10).  50 The suggests  P r o t e s t a n t dominance of the a  somewhat  nationally. provinces  and  conventions 1986: MPs  At  different  national founding  were  N.S.  P.C.  convention  k i n d of g a t h e r i n g than  conventions ethnic  partially  1971  groups  created  delegates quite  f o r that  one  finds  represent  adequately: purpose  the  indeed  (Courtney,  94). The f a i l u r e of c e r t a i n p a r t s of the e l e c t o r a t e t o r e t u r n  of a p a r t i c u l a r p a r t y was not regarded as s u f f i c i e n t reason f o r  denying  such groups the o p p o r t u n i t y t o p a r t i c i p a t e  i n leadership  s e l e c t i o n . As Courtney e x p l a i n s That the L i b e r a l P a r l i a m e n t a r y membership i n 1919 was drawn overwhelmingly from the p r o v i n c e of Quebec and t h a t the C o n s e r v a t i v e caucus i n 1927 was composed almost e n t i r e l y of MPs from O n t a r i o , B r i t i s h Columbia and Nova Scotia distressed the politicians of the day. Understandably they were a t t r a c t e d t o an i n s t i t u t i o n which overcame their r e p r e s e n t a t i o n a l concerns by e n s u r i n g an equal number of p a r t i c i p a n t s from every c o n s t i t u e n c y i n the country (1986: 94). Thus by  h o l d i n g conventions,  constituencies,  parties  did  and not  o r g a n i z i n g conventions have  to  fear  that  around  particular  r e g i o n s would be excluded from the l e a d e r s h i p s e l e c t i o n p r o c e s s . Indeed, r e s e a r c h by  Courtney i n d i c a t e s t h a t r e g i o n a l e x c l u s i o n was  not the o n l y concern i n 1919. succeeded  by  a Protestant  L a u r i e r f e l t i t important t h a t he be and  the  general b e l i e f  was  that  an  E n g l i s h speaking P r o t e s t a n t l e a d e r was e s s e n t i a l f o r the e l e c t o r a l health  of the  Liberal  party  (Courtney,  1973:  63;  Lederle,  1947:  90) . A  caucus  C a t h o l i c s was such  a  dominated not  only by  Quebec but  also  by  French  not regarded as the a p p r o p r i a t e body f o r s e l e c t i n g  leader.  Far  better  a  national  convention  which  drew  51 d e l e g a t e s from a l l over the the  basic  unit,  would  country and, w i t h c o n s t i t u e n c i e s as  certainly  bring  a majority  of English  P r o t e s t a n t s . The Nova S c o t i a n convention i n 1971 was a l s o o r g a n i z e d around  c o n s t i t u e n c i e s , as indeed  Brunswick c o n v e n t i o n s .  are a l l Nova  Scotian  and New  (Conventions on PEI use p o l l s as the b a s i c  u n i t . ) Yet C a t h o l i c s , i n s p i t e o f t h e i r importance i n Nova S c o t i a n p o l i t i c s , were d e c i d e d l y underrepresented. C a t h o l i c s g e n e r a l l y d i d not favour t h e C o n s e r v a t i v e s and the C o n s e r v a t i v e s a p p a r e n t l y made l i t t l e e f f o r t to include Perhaps  Maritime  general,  C a t h o l i c s at t h e i r l e a d e r s h i p convention.  conventions,  a r e not expected  or  provincial  to f u l f i l  such  conventions  in  a representative  function. It  i s useful  d e l e g a t e s . Do they  at t h i s  'represent' t h e i r  from t h e same r e l a t i v e l y n a t i o n a l delegates? First,  given  dominance relatively  by  high  elite  Maritime  societies?  sub stratum  convention  How?  Are they  o f the p o p u l a t i o n as  Two c o n t r a r y answers have some f a c e v a l i d i t y .  the cadre the  point to p r o f i l e  nature  o f Maritime  leadership,  delegates  s t a t u s . Second,  given  d i s t a n c e and money t o a t t e n d a Maritime  parties  and  are l i k e l y  that  their  t o be of  the costs  i n time,  convention a r e not o v e r l y  onerous, d e l e g a t e s are l i k e l y t o be o f lower s t a t u s than d e l e g a t e s elsewhere. attendance  The geographic compactness o f the t h r e e p r o v i n c e s makes at  a  inexpensive—particularly  convention  relatively  easy  and  on PEI where d e l e g a t e s anywhere i n the  p r o v i n c e can commute d a i l y t o a convention. Examining the e d u c a t i o n and income o f the d e l e g a t e s p r o v i d e s  52 a mixed message. The e d u c a t i o n a l attainments impressive.  Delegates  considerably less  to  high  conventions  were,  h o l d i n g u n i v e r s i t y degrees i n Nova S c o t i a  Brunswick ranged from a low of 41% (P.C. N.S. of  53%  however,  educated than those i n the other p r o v i n c e s . The  percentage of d e l e g a t e s or New  Island  of t h e d e l e g a t e s are  (N.S.  Liberals  1980  and  1986).  In  1971) t o the  a  general  p o p u l a t i o n only 7% of Nova S c o t i a n s and 6% of New Brunswickers were educated  as h i g h l y .  1  On  PEI, t h e percentage  of delegates  with  u n i v e r s i t y degrees was s u b s t a n t i a l l y lower with a range of only 23% to  27%. S t i l l ,  delegates  6% of I s l a n d e r s have such degrees the  were, r e l a t i v e t o t h e i r s o c i e t y , w e l l educated.  Family Island  s i n c e only  income p r o v i d e s  delegates  were  a s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t p i c t u r e . Again,  less  affluent  than  their  mainland  c o u n t e r p a r t s but t h i s time t h e i r r e p o r t e d incomes c l o s e l y the  family  incomes  of I s l a n d e r s  i n general.  mirrored  Specifically,  as a  group, I s l a n d d e l e g a t e s were no w e a l t h i e r than most I s l a n d e r s . The Nova  Scotian  P.C.  convention  c o n t r a s t . The d e l e g a t e s , general reported figures  population.  of 1971  a most s u r p r i s i n g  on average, are a c t u a l l y poorer  For  instance,  while  13%  of the  than the delegates  f a m i l y incomes i n excess of $20,000, S t a t i s t i c s Canada f o r 1971 i n d i c a t e t h a t  incomes i n excess of t h a t attainments,  these  31% of Nova S c o t i a n  amount.  delegates  In s p i t e  of t h e i r  f a m i l i e s had educational  were not by Nova S c o t i a n  w e l l t o do. Nor were I s l a n d d e l e g a t e s  Data on the p r o v i n c i a l p o p u l a t i o n s 1971 or 1981 Canadian Census. 1  reveals  standards  r e l a t i v e l y w e l l t o do.  i s drawn from e i t h e r the  The  remaining  affluence.  In  New  conventions Brunswick  r e v e a l the  i n 1982,  46%  expected of  the  f a m i l y incomes of over $30,000 while 50% of the 1985  pattern  delegates  19%.  Similarly,  61%  of  the  delegates  at  had  d e l e g a t e s were  i n t h a t c a t e g o r y . The c o r r e s p o n d i n g f i g u r e f o r the p o p u l a t i o n only  of  the  1980  was N.S.  convention r e p o r t e d f a m i l y incomes of over $20,000 w h i l e j u s t  43%  of Nova S c o t i a n f a m i l i e s were t h a t a f f l u e n t .  40%  of the N.S. mere  F i n a l l y , i n 1986,  L i b e r a l d e l e g a t e s had incomes of over $40,000 while a  13% of the p o p u l a t i o n had incomes over $35,000. The  examination  of  something of a s u r p r i s e . than  the  family  First,  income  figures  Island delegates  provides  were no  richer  I s l a n d e r s i n g e n e r a l . Second, d e l e g a t e s t o the Nova S c o t i a n  Conservative total  convention  were on balance  poorer  than  the  Nova S c o t i a n p o p u l a t i o n . F i n d i n g s of t h i s  nature  have  not  been r e p o r t e d elsewhere  i n 1971  i n the country. D e s p i t e t h e i r h i g h  of e d u c a t i o n , d e l e g a t e s t o Maritime  conventions  levels  are not q u i t e the  same k i n d of a f f l u e n t i n d i v i d u a l s found at most c o n v e n t i o n s . There are  also  closer  intra  regional differences.  to t h e i r  those i n New  fellow residents in  Brunswick and Nova S c o t i a —  Island delegates education 1971  and  are  much  income  than  notwithstanding.  The  s m a l l s i z e of the I s l a n d both i n terms of p o p u l a t i o n and geography p r o b a b l y accounts  f o r t h i s . With a r e l a t i v e l y t i n y p o p u l a t i o n and  d i s t a n c e s t h a t a l l o w commuting, I s l a n d conventions appear much more a c c e s s i b l e t o the average  citizen.  O v e r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of one w i t h P r o t e s t a n t s at the N.S.  r e l i g i o u s group, as Adamson found  P.C.  1971  convention,  i s the norm at  Maritime  conventions.  Either  Protestants  or  o v e r r e p r e s e n t e d . R a r e l y are t h e groups p r e s e n t percentages  resembling  C a t h o l i c s are  at conventions i n  t h e p r o v i n c i a l p o p u l a t i o n s . Only  the I s l a n d C o n s e r v a t i v e convention o f 1981, were  P r o t e s t a n t s and  C a t h o l i c s p r e s e n t i n t h e i r a c t u a l p o p u l a t i o n shares (It  once, at  (47% C a t h o l i c ) .  s h o u l d a l s o be noted t h a t c o n t r a r y t o B.C. where Blake,  Carty  and E r i c k s o n found t h e p l u r a l i t y o f d e l e g a t e s would not d e s i g n a t e any such  religious affiliation, a designation)  v i r t u a l l y every Maritime  (1988:  d e l e g a t e made  517). In 1976 a t t h e o t h e r  Island  C o n s e r v a t i v e convention t h e percentage o f C a t h o l i c s dropped t o 40% while at t h e two L i b e r a l conventions i t was o n l y 36%. With t h e w e l l known p r e f e r e n c e o f I s l a n d C a t h o l i c s f o r t h e C o n s e r v a t i v e s the 47% at t h e 1981 convention i s h a r d l y shocking. The r e l a t i v e absence of Catholics  i n 197 6 i s more s t r i k i n g and may have  weather which convention  kept  many d e l e g a t e s  away  (Charlottetown Guardian,  Catholics  were  also  from  been due t o bad  the  Charlottetown  November 6 1981:  underrepresented  at  1).  the  1971  N.S.  C o n s e r v a t i v e g a t h e r i n g where they made up j u s t 24% o f t h e d e l e g a t e t o t a l compared t o 36% o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n . Again g i v e n t h e h i s t o r i c p r e f e r e n c e o f C a t h o l i c s f o r L i b e r a l s t h i s r e l a t i v e absence i s not difficult Catholics  t o understand. were  Indeed,  slightly  at t h e two L i b e r a l  overrepresented:  about  conventions 45%  of the  d e l e g a t e s were C a t h o l i c . In majority  New  Brunswick  where  Catholics constitute  (54%) and p r e f e r the L i b e r a l s  one might  a  provincial  expect  t h e two  L i b e r a l conventions t o be h e a v i l y C a t h o l i c . T h i s i s t h e case  with  55 C a t h o l i c s making up  60%  These  are  conventions  presence.  Only  of the also  about 7%  1982  convention  noteworthy  of New  for  Brunswickers  and  66%  the  strong  are of I r i s h  but almost  a q u a r t e r of L i b e r a l d e l e g a t e s c l a i m e d I r i s h  The  New  major  delegate  Brunswick  total  I r i s h . The New significant  at  both  minority,  the  conventions  French,  only  in  with  slightly  1985. Irish  descent  ancestry.  31%  of  the  outnumber  the  Brunswick L i b e r a l p a r t y seems t o be made up of t h r e e groups,  P r o t e s t a n t s . The  French,  Irish  s t r o n g presence  Catholics,  and  British  of the I r i s h can a l s o be seen i n  the l e a d e r s chosen: t h r e e of the l a s t  f o u r l e a d e r s were of  Irish  descent. The Maritime p a r t i e s i n convention, r a t h e r than b r o k e r i n g the supposedly  strong r e l i g i o u s d i v i s i o n s , disproportionately attract  delegates  from  the  religious  group  which  supports  them  most  s t r o n g l y i n e l e c t i o n s . T h i s lends support t o the c o n t e n t i o n of Winn and  McMenemy  reflect  that  "the  the p a r t i c u l a r  cultural electoral  backgrounds support  of p a r t y  of the  p a r t i e s . . . Each  p a r t y tends t o possess a c t i v i s t s among those groups draws v o t i n g s t r e n g t h "  (1976: 152,156). At  activists  from which i t  Maritime  conventions  t h i s also describes delegates. I t i s a l s o u s e f u l t o assess the u r b a n / r u r a l breakdown of the convention rural  delegates.  The  t h r e e Maritime  provinces  are  the  most  i n the country and one might expect a s u b s t a n t i a l number of  delegates population  to come from r u r a l (64%)  lives  in  areas. rural  thousand r e s i d e n t s . At the two  On  PEI,  the m a j o r i t y of  communities  of  fewer  C o n s e r v a t i v e conventions  than  the a  delegates  from these areas made up 61% and 63% of t h e t o t a l . R u r a l I s l a n d e r s were a l s o i n t h e m a j o r i t y at the L i b e r a l conventions 59%.  Rural delegates  with 55% and  were i n the m a j o r i t y at a l l conventions  but  the r u r a l c h a r a c t e r of t h e I s l a n d was s c a r c e l y exaggerated. In Nova S c o t i a and New  Brunswick r u r a l  n e a r l y as numerous as one might expect those  provinces.  enclave'  New  were not  g i v e n t h e r u r a l nature of  Brunswick has been  and almost h a l f  delegates  described  as a  'rural  (47%) of New Brunswickers l i v e i n areas  of under 1000. In s p i t e of t h i s ,  l e s s than  20% o f t h e d e l e g a t e s  came from those communities. In Nova S c o t i a , 45% of the p o p u l a t i o n can be d e s i g n a t e d 27%  as r u r a l but of the d e l e g a t e s  o n l y 26% i n 1986,  i n 1980 and 38% i n 1971 c o u l d be so d e s i g n a t e d .  were  consistently  Conservative convention  underrepresented,  difference  was  but  noticeable  again  with  containing a considerably higher  the  Rural a  areas  Liberal  Conservative  proportion  of r u r a l  delegates. The r e l a t i v e l y small p r o p o r t i o n of r u r a l d e l e g a t e s may be due t o the manner i n which d e l e g a t e s are chosen. S e l e c t i o n meetings are more l i k e l y t o be h e l d i n  the major c e n t r e o f each c o n s t i t u e n c y ,  a f a c t t h a t might i n h i b i t p a r t i c i p a t i o n by r u r a l c i t i z e n s who would have t o t r a v e l longer d i s t a n c e s . On PEI where the p o l l r a t h e r than the  constituency  i s the b a s i c  unit  this  problem  would  be  less  intractable. In c o n t r a s t t o the r u r a l s e c t i o n s o f the p r o v i n c e s , the major urban areas have t h e i r f a i r share of convention d e l e g a t e s . Indeed, given  the  overrepresentation  of  the  smaller  counties  i n the  57 legislatures,  i t i s s u r p r i s i n g t h a t the major urban areas are so  w e l l r e p r e s e n t e d . I t i s the r u r a l areas t h a t are underrepresented at conventions: t h e r e v e r s e o f the case i n l e g i s l a t u r e s . On PEI t h e conventions  are much  c l o s e r t o r e p r e s e n t a t i o n by p o p u l a t i o n than  the l e g i s l a t u r e . With p o l l s r a t h e r than c o n s t i t u e n c i e s forming the basic  unit,  Queens  county—which  includes  Charlottetown—with  almost h a l f t h e p o p u l a t i o n has about h a l f , and sometimes more, o f the d e l e g a t e s . In the  l e g i s l a t u r e i t has only 38% o f t h e s e a t s .  On PEI 13% o f the p o p u l a t i o n l i v e s i n Charlottetown and  from  city.  12% t o 19% of the convention  city  that  i n a c i t y of  (Moncton and S a i n t John) while 18% and 24% o f  the d e l e g a t e s r e s i d e d t h e r e . F i n a l l y , the  d e l e g a t e s were from  In New Brunswick 19% of t h e p o p u l a t i o n l i v e s  over 50,000 people  (over 10,000)  of Halifax  (over  14% o f Nova S c o t i a n s l i v e i n  100, 000)  as d i d 16% o f the 1971  d e l e g a t e s and 13% of those i n 1986. (Due t o coding c a t e g o r i e s data are u n a v a i l a b l e f o r 1980) . In both Nova S c o t i a and New Brunswick then,  i t i s t h e s m a l l and l a r g e towns t h a t p r o v i d e t h e bulk of  convention On elsewhere  goers.  other in  dimensions Canada.  Maritime  First,  delegates  Maritime  resemble  conventions  delegates are male  dominated. While women make up a s l i g h t m a j o r i t y i n each p r o v i n c e , t h e i r share of t h e delegate t o t a l reached i t s z e n i t h at only 43% of t h e 1986 Nova S c o t i a n L i b e r a l convention. At most women made up  conventions  between a t h i r d and a q u a r t e r o f the delegate body.  Women were s l i g h t l y l e s s e v i d e n t at I s l a n d conventions where they never reached the o n e - t h i r d l e v e l and saw t h e i r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n drop  58 as low as 23% a t t h e 1981 L i b e r a l convention. In New Brunswick and Nova  Scotia  there  is a  hint  of  a  secular  trend  to  female  r e p r e s e n t a t i o n . As i n d i c a t e d above, t h e i r l a r g e s t share was i n the most r e c e n t convention while t h e n a d i r o f t h e i r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n was 24% i n 1971. Another p o s s i b i l i t y i s t h a t t h e C o n s e r v a t i v e p a r t y i s l e s s concerned was  some  with female  reluctance  in  p r o v i n c i a l candidates  r e p r e s e n t a t i o n . As l a t e as 1981 t h e r e Conservative  ranks  (Adamson and Stewart,  t o have  women as  1985: 327). Given t h i s  r e l u c t a n c e perhaps t h e d i f f e r e n c e i s one o f p a r t y r a t h e r than time. Second, Maritime d e l e g a t e s are r e l a t i v e l y middle aged. In a l l three  p r o v i n c e s almost  under  30  while  two f i f t h s  one f i f t h  conventions d i d t h e percentage usually  i t was  less  than  i s over  60. At none  a quarter.  In Nova  o f t h e nine  Scotia  and New  as numerous at conventions as  a r e i n t h e p o p u l a t i o n . At I s l a n d conventions  were s l i g h t l y  15 i s  o f d e l e g a t e s under 30 reach 30% and  Brunswick those over 60 were almost they  o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n over  those  over 60  o v e r r e p r e s e n t e d comprising about a q u a r t e r o f each  g a t h e r i n g . In t h e p o p u l a t i o n at l a r g e those between 30 and 60 made up a maximum o f 44%  o f any p r o v i n c i a l t o t a l . At conventions,  h a l f of the delegates  were i n t h i s age group and i n e i g h t o f nine  conventions they made up over 58% o f t h e d e l e g a t e Finally,  over  d e l e g a t e s t o Maritime  total.  conventions possessed  strong  p a r t y t i e s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y t h e data on p a r t y background i s not t h e same  f o r each  delegates  who  convention have  been  but t h e p i c t u r e party  workers  that  emerges  f o r some y e a r s .  between 64% and 74% o f t h e d e l e g a t e s belonged  i s of On PEI  to t h e i r party f o r  over  ten years.  In New Brunswick,  73% o f t h e d e l e g a t e s  at each  convention  admitted working f o r t h e L i b e r a l s b e f o r e t h e p r e c e d i n g  provincial  election  while  p r e v i o u s convention likewise  over  half  had been d e l e g a t e s  t o the  ( i n c l u d i n g 77% i n 1982). Nova S c o t i a n d e l e g a t e s  revealed a strong pattern of party t i e s .  In 1971, over  t h r e e - q u a r t e r s o f t h e d e l e g a t e s c l a i m e d p a r t y memberships o f more then t e n y e a r s . As w e l l , 80% o f t h e 1980 d e l e g a t e s and 81% o f those in  198 6 had worked  election.  Maritime  f o r the L i b e r a l s  delegates  i n the l a s t  as a group possess  p a r t i e s . Few, i f any, were i n s t a n t  provincial  roots  T o r i e s or G r i t s  i n their  and newcomers  were a d i s t i n c t m i n o r i t y . The because  percentage of  convention  of d e l e g a t e s  the party to  categories  or p u b l i c  convention  used.  At  who., were e x - o f f i c i o — p r e s e n t position  held—varied  i n p a r t due t o t h e s l i g h t l y  a l l conventions  MPs,  MLAs  and  from  different Senators,  nominated o r d e f e a t e d candidates and members o f t h e e x e c u t i v e s both f e d e r a l and p r o v i n c i a l were accorded d e l e g a t e s t a t u s a u t o m a t i c a l l y . The  variation  i n v o l v e d r e p r e s e n t i n g members o f women's and youth  e x e c u t i v e s , commissions and d e l e g a t e s - a t - l a r g e . Ex-officio Conservative total.  delegates  convention  Usually their  percentage  were  most  o f 197 6 where  share  numerous they  made  at  the  up 4 6%  Island o f the  was between 25% and 35% and t h e huge  i n 197 6 may have been due t o t h e bad weather. The fewest  e x - o f f i c i o d e l e g a t e s were at t h e 1980 N.S. L i b e r a l convention where they made up only 18% o f t h e t o t a l . delegates  The percentage  of e x - o f f i c i o  was much i n c r e a s e d i n 198 6 when t h e L i b e r a l s  extended  60  ex-officio  status  to  members  Nonetheless,  a t every convention  of  the  women's  commission.  e x - o f f i c i o d e l e g a t e s formed only  a minority. T h i s overview Maritimes of  o f t h e s t a t u s o f convention  delegates  i n the  suggests t h a t they resemble d e l e g a t e s elsewhere i n terms  age, gender  and p a r t y  experience.  Party  conventions  in  the  Maritimes are p r i m a r i l y the p r e s e r v e o f male p a r t y r e g u l a r s between 30  and 60. W i t h i n  t h e Maritimes,  They were l e s s educated, from r u r a l applies  less affluent,  are d i s t i n c t .  r e l a t i v e l y old, generally  communities and overwhelmingly male. T h i s d e s c r i p t i o n  to  regardless  Island delegates  the delegates of party  at  each  or c o m p e t i t i v e  convention situation.  on  the Island  The o n l y p a r t i s a n  d i f f e r e n c e t h a t stood out on PEI was t h e l a r g e number o f C a t h o l i c s at t h e 1981 Tory In  Nova  Conservative relatively  convention. Scotia,  and L i b e r a l  l e s s educated,  striking delegates.  differences  exist  Conservative  delegates  c o n s i d e r a b l y poorer,  between  more l i k e l y  were t o be  men, much more l i k e l y t o l i v e i n r u r a l areas and f a r more l i k e l y t o be  P r o t e s t a n t . The  rural  nature  attainments  Conservatives  of the province  reflected  more a c c u r a t e l y t h e  and t h e income  o f Nova S c o t i a n s . As a p a r t y ,  and  i t thus  educational seems more i n  touch w i t h t h e o f t s t a t e d c o n s e r v a t i v e and t r a d i t i o n a l nature o f Nova S c o t i a n s o c i e t y . The L i b e r a l p a r t y appears e x p l i c i t l y as the p a r t y o f i n t e g r a t i o n , as t h e p a r t y t h a t seeks t o i n c l u d e women and t o accommodate C a t h o l i c s . Delegates  t o t h e New Brunswick L i b e r a l  convention  resemble  o t h e r d e l e g a t e s i n t h e i r r e l a t i v e l y h i g h s t a t u s . They a l s o e v i n c e the  C a t h o l i c base  minority  at  both  French  core  of  the  Liberal  background of the Liberal  of  party.  Protestants  gatherings.  Moreover,  2  activists.  Essentially,  Liberal  P r o t e s t a n t s or  C a t h o l i c s were g r e a t l y o v e r r e p r e s e n t e d  Irish  convention.  C a t h o l i c s accounted expense of both  distinct  the  ethnic  With j u s t  delegates  were  Catholics. Irish  at both c o n v e n t i o n s .  u n l i k e l y t h a t they would be p r e s e n t  a Conservative  a  d e l e g a t e s suggests the t r i p a r t i t e nature of the  Catholics, British  extremely  were  It i s  i n such numbers at  7% of the p o p u l a t i o n ,  Irish  f o r a q u a r t e r of the d e l e g a t e p o s i t i o n s at the  French  Catholics  very r e a l sense the New  and  British  P r o t e s t a n t s . In a  Brunswick L i b e r a l p a r t y is. the p a r t y of the  Irish. Finally,  i t i s c l e a r t h a t Maritime  conventions  as a r u l e are  not f u l l y r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of t h e i r s o c i e t i e s . B a s i c a l l y , d i d not m i r r o r c i t i z e n s . A s i d e did  not  fulfil  conventions. activists  the  same  Maritime  not  overrepresent  of the  from r e g i o n , Maritime  conventions  r e p r e s e n t a t i o n a l f u n c t i o n as n a t i o n a l  delegates province.  societal  delegates  groups  provide Each p a r t y  from  which  a  portrait  of  convention the  party  support. The c o n s t i t u e n c y b a s i s of the conventions  seems to draws i t s  does not ensure  t h a t a l l p o l i t i c a l l y s a l i e n t groups r e c e i v e a p r o p o r t i o n a t e in  leadership  selection.  Conventions  are  a  party  gathering  voice of  the  One can only speculate as to whether Conservative conventions would be as P r o t e s t a n t as L i b e r a l conventions are Catholic. Given the pattern of r e p r e s e n t a t i o n at Maritime conventions and the r e a l i t i e s of New Brunswick p o l i t i c s , i t seems l i k e l y t h a t a m a j o r i t y of Tory d e l e g a t e s would be P r o t e s t a n t . 2  62 faithful this  not  vein  an  the  conventions  o p p o r t u n i t y t o broaden conventions  than  to those  bear  more  of the  the  face of the  similarity  federal  something  of a v a r i e d  p r e s e r v e of educated, represent  only  conventions c h a p t e r two divisions will  on  one  religious  indicate  f a c e . They  male, m i d d l e - a g e d  that  or  be p r e s e n t e d  of these  variables  i n the next  few  Table Selected Delegate NS PC 71  are  not  exclusively  the  The  makeup  lines  exists,  in  the e m p i r i c a l r e a l i t y  chapters. 3-1  C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s by  Convention#  PEI PC 76  PEI LIB 78  NS LIB 80  PEI LIB 81  PEI PC 81  NB LIB 82  NB LIB 85  NS LIB 86  23  55  24  24  45  47  53  Catholic  24  40  36  45  36  47  62  66  45  Rural  38  63  59  27  55  61  17  18  26  Urban  16  19  15  —  19  12  24  18  13  Female  24  27  28  34  23  32  32  37  38  23  22  23  23  13  17  16  21  28  17  25  18  16  27  25  19  15  14  60  the  The p o t e n t i a l f o r v o t i n g  27  Over  they  outlined  41  30  the  of  University Degree  Under  NDP  degree,  p a r t y r e g u l a r s n o r do  along  c a n n o t be r u l e d o u t a p r i o r i . any  at l e a s t to a  e t h n i c group.  divisions  national  In  cousins.  It i s a l s o obvious t h a t the conventions, present  to  party.  47 21 37 Ex-officio 31 43 38 25 21 30 # The numbers i n t h e b o x e s . r e f e r t o t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f d e l e g a t e s h a v i n g t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c d e s c r i b e d . Most a r e s e l f e x p l a n a t o r y , however r u r a l r e f e r s t o d e l e g a t e s l i v i n g i n c o m m u n i t i e s o f u n d e r 1000 p e o p l e . U r b a n i s d i f f e r e n t f o r e a c h p r o v i n c e : P E I o v e r 10,000, NS o v e r 100,000, NB o v e r 50,000.  63  Chapter 4 P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d : D i v i s i o n s a t Commuter C o n v e n t i o n s  Prince  Edward  Island provides the s t a r t i n g  point f o r the  a n a l y s i s o f p a r t y d i v i s i o n s as m a n i f e s t e d a t M a r i t i m e l e a d e r s h i p conventions. Studies of l e a d e r s h i p conventions at the p r o v i n c i a l level  a r e r a r e and l i t t l e  chapter  an attempt  will  work has been done on P E I . I n t h i s  be made t o d i s c o v e r whether t h e r e a r e  p a t t e r n s t o d e l e g a t e v o t i n g a t I s l a n d c o n v e n t i o n s and t o t r a c e any such p a t t e r n s i n t h e s u p p o r t o f t h e v a r i o u s c a n d i d a t e s . The b a s i c argument i s t h a t I s l a n d ,  and M a r i t i m e , c o n v e n t i o n s  can b e s t be  u n d e r s t o o d i n a ' f r i e n d s and n e i g h b o u r s ' framework. Such v o t i n g has been  found  previously  in  largely  rural  polities  i d e o l o g i c a l d i v i s i o n s . Maritime p o l i t i c s c e r t a i n l y  with  few  f i t into that  c a t e g o r y . I n t h i s framework, s u p p o r t f o r c a n d i d a t e s i s based among voters  from  their  home  area;  their  friends  and  neighbours.  Moreover, t h e r e i s a tendency f o r d e l e g a t e s t o s u p p o r t a c a n d i d a t e who s h a r e s t h e same r e l i g i o u s  background.  Introduction Descriptions  of  Maritime  politics  rarely  discuss  the  d i f f e r e n c e s which e x i s t among t h e t h r e e p r o v i n c e s . R a t h e r , emphasis i s p l a c e d on t h e r e g i o n a l n a t u r e o f p o l i t i c a l m a n i f e s t a t i o n s A s Adamson and Stewart p o i n t out " t h e p a r t y p o l i t i c s o f Nova S c o t i a , New B r u n s w i c k , P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d , and even Newfoundland c o n t i n u e t o be  s t r i k i n g l y similar. Underlying t h i s partisan s i m i l a r i t y i s  a the  manifestly  r e g i o n a l p o l i t i c a l c u l t u r e " (1985: 319).  contention  that p o l i t i c s  economic  and  class  religion  has  a  divisions  lifetime  and  region  are  of  ' l i n g e r i n g impact',  preeminent r o l e , t h a t p a r t y a  i n the  that  are  little  that  Few  dispute  traditional,  that  importance,  that  party  leaders  have  i d e n t i f i c a t i o n b e g i n s e a r l y and  little  in  the  way  of  ideology  or  lasts policy  d i f f e r e n c e s separate the two main p a r t i e s . Such d e s c r i p t i o n s to a l l three  a  apply  provinces.  PEI, however, has a number of unique c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Much of the  distinctiveness  residents  the  Island  r e s u l t of t h i s i s direct  lies  in  is  i t s size.  small  even  by  p o l i t i c a l f i g u r e s who  relationship  with  voters.  With  fewer  Maritime  than  standards.  a l a r g e degree of p u b l i c  organizations  Politics  The  Island  neighbours. than h a l f  i n t e r e s t and  (MacKinnon, 1978: is  also  Indeed, PEI  (36%)  is  quite  politicians  receive  the  same  Fredericton, The Brunswick  and  urbanized  than  i s the only p r o v i n c e i s urban  Charlottetown,  attention  as  does  its  there  571).  The  importance to vote  only  Halifax  Maritime  i n Canada where l e s s  (Dyck, 1986:  the  S a i n t John and Moncton i n New  I s l a n d cannot be  and  p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n party  concerns of r u r a l I s l a n d e r s are thus of utmost seeking  informal,  228).  less  of the p o p u l a t i o n  The  possess a c l o s e r and more  c a n d i d a t e s have a s u b s t a n t i a l acquaintance among v o t e r s is  125,000  in  city, Nova  does Scotia  not or  Brunswick. as e a s i l y  as  New  or Nova S c o t i a . While the North/South d i v i s i o n  in  New  i n Nova S c o t i a  are  Brunswick and  the  d i v i d e d into regions  Cape Breton/Mainland s p l i t  65  r e a d i l y apparent t o even t h e c a s u a l o b s e r v e r , r e g i o n a l d i v i s i o n s on PEI  are  less  province  obvious.  "too  divisions"  Dyck has gone so f a r as t o d e c l a r e  s m a l l t o have s i g n i f i c a n t  (1986:  geographic  or regional  Yet he a l s o r e f e r r e d t o the t h r e e  80)  the  historic  c o u n t i e s o f K i n g s , P r i n c e and Queens and the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f s e a t s among t h e s e c o u n t i e s i n d i c a t e s the importance of t h e s e  boundaries.  Indeed, R u s s e l l - C l a r k ' s d i s c u s s i o n of the t e n a c i t y w i t h which K i n g s county MLAs r e s i s t e d  a proposed  r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i n 1966 equality  (1973:  reduction i n t h e i r  legislative  p o i n t s t o the s a c r e d n a t u r e of rough county Queens county w i t h almost h a l f t h e p o p u l a t i o n  311).  has o n l y 12 of t h e 32 s e a t s i n t h e l e g i s l a t u r e , w h i l e l e s s t h a n h a l f the p o p u l a t i o n o f P r i n c e has  Kings  the same  with  number o f  MLAs (10) . R e l i g i o n i s o f s u r p a s s i n g importance on P E I . MacKinnon argued  that  Conservative, taken  "the  I s l a n d has f o u r  C a t h o l i c and  i n government  ever,  do a P r o t e s t a n t  Protestant"  appointments  p a r t i c u l a r care to balance  political (1978:  parties: 237).  has  Liberal,  'Turns'  and t h e two p a r t i e s  are take  t h e i r t i c k e t s r e l i g i o u s l y . Rarely, i f  and a  Catholic directly  compete  for a  p r o v i n c i a l s e a t . T h i s e v a s i o n of r e l i g i o u s c o m p e t i t i o n i s a i d e d by the p e c u l i a r nature  o f I s l a n d c o n s t i t u e n c i e s . There are o n l y 16  r i d i n g s , each w i t h two s e a t s , one f o r an Assemblyman and t h e o t h e r f o r a C o u n c i l l o r . The o n l y d i f f e r e n c e  between the  seats i s i n  nomenclature. Each member i s e l e c t e d by s e p a r a t e b a l l o t making i t i m p o s s i b l e f o r any  I s l a n d e r t o use h i s / h e r  for  candidate.  a particular  With  two  v o t e s t o 'plump'  theparties taking  care t o  nominate,  say two  Protestants  Catholics  f o r t h e Assembly  f o r the C o u n c i l l o r seat,  i t i s also  seat  and two  impossible  fora  C a t h o l i c v o t e r t o s e l e c t only C a t h o l i c candidates or P r o t e s t a n t s t o vote only  f o r P r o t e s t a n t s . The p e r s i s t e n c e o f t h i s t r e n d c o u l d be  seen c l e a r l y ran  i n 1982 when newly s e l e c t e d L i b e r a l  i n the Sixth  cabinet  minister  leadership  Barry  Clark—the  seat  runner  than  against up  Conservative  a t t h e 1981  against  a  less  while  t h e other  2) . R u s s e l l - C l a r k i n a very  suggests  that  such  machinations  c e n t r a l and dominant r o l e  r e l i g i o u s composition  i n t h e country.  Protestants  "place  in political  life"  politically  o f PEI i s t h e most evenly  make up a bare m a j o r i t y  f o r t h e C a t h o l i c s . U n l i k e most o f t h e country,  the C o n s e r v a t i v e s more  (Adamson,  (1986:95).  The  46.6%  prominent  member was a C a t h o l i c  (1973: 300) while Dyck argues t h a t i t renders r e l i g i o n innocuous  Tory  member f o r t h e C o u n c i l l o r s e a t . Both C l a r k and Ghiz  were P r o t e s t a n t  religion  Assemblyman  convention—rather  Conservative  1983:  Queens  l e a d e r Joe Ghiz  o f 50.5% t o on PEI i t i s  who bear a C a t h o l i c t i n t and t h e L i b e r a l s who are  Protestant,  a  tendency  championing o f t h e P r o t e s t a n t religious  divided  schools  question  that  dates  back  to the  Liberal  s i d e i n 1870 d u r i n g t h e u b i q u i t o u s (MacKinnon,  1951:  247).  This  a s s o c i a t i o n has continued with t h e L i b e r a l s not choosing a C a t h o l i c leader u n t i l  1978. As r e c e n t l y as 1983  preference  of C a t h o l i c s f o r Conservatives  of  data—a  survey  election  provincial  subsection  Adamson  r e f e r r e d t o the  (1983: 2 ) . Examinations o f t h e famous n a t i o n a l  s t u d i e s — i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e L i b e r a l s are more  Protestant  67 than  the Conservatives  (Jenson,  both  i n terms  1976: 123; Chandler  of voters  and Chandler,  and i d e n t i f i e r s  1979: 48; Kornberg,  1982: 154). Two f i n a l s t r i k i n g aspects o f I s l a n d p o l i t i c s should a l s o be pointed  out. F i r s t , the Island  Although t h i r d  i s a wasteland f o r t h i r d p a r t i e s .  p a r t i e s have not been t e r r i b l y  successful  Brunswick o r Nova S c o t i a , t h e i r f a i l u r e on PEI has been No  third  party  independents  candidate  have  Confederation.  sat  has ever  in  the  been  elected  provincial  i n New  absolute.  and o n l y  legislature  two since  As w e l l , t h e p r o v i n c i a l share o f t h e vote f o r t h i r d  p a r t i e s has never exceeded 6% while t h e f e d e r a l vote has not been over 8% s i n c e t h e P r o g r e s s i v e Part o f t h e e x p l a n a t i o n  b l i p o f 1921. f o r t h e t h i r d p a r t y f a i l u r e may r e s t  i n t h e l a s t unique f e a t u r e o f I s l a n d p o l i t i c s , t h e alignment t r e n d . Generally  t h e I s l a n d has e l e c t e d  a p r o v i n c i a l government  of the  same p a r t i s a n s t r i p e as t h e f e d e r a l government, a tendency based on the d e s i r e f o r ' f r i e n d s at c o u r t ' (Stewart: 1986) . P r i o r t o 1986 one c o u l d u s u a l l y p r e d i c t t h e p a r t i s a n s t r i p e o f t h e I s l a n d government by n o t i n g which p a r t y was It i s evident  in office federally.  then t h a t w h i l e I s l a n d p o l i t i c s  f i t well into  the l i t e r a t u r e on t h e Maritime r e g i o n , d i f f e r e n c e s e x i s t and these differences physical  a r e not without  relevance  to this  s i z e o f t h e I s l a n d makes i t p o s s i b l e  study.  The small  f o r delegates  to  a t t e n d t h e conventions without t h e n e c e s s i t y o f spending a few days away from home. Delegates can t r a v e l i n t o C h a r l o t t e t o w n f o r the c o n v e n t i o n and r e t u r n home at n i g h t . T h i s a b i l i t y t o t r a v e l i n f o r  68 the day t o t h e convention has o c c a s i o n a l l y had major r a m i f i c a t i o n s . In  1976, f o r i n s t a n c e , bad weather  almost  a  third  population  also  delegates  can  actually  alternates,  a  the  eligible  means t h a t be  r e g i s t e r i n g almost is  of  on the day o f v o t i n g delegates  away.  a disproportionately high  involved  i n the  process.  With  The  kept small  number of conventions  1500 d e l e g a t e s t h i s means than one v o t e r i n 23  delegate  families  t o one and  convention  delegate  or t h e o t h e r .  selection  When  meetings  are  c o n s i d e r e d , t h e number o f people i n v o l v e d i n some way i s amazingly high. As  well,  politicians relatively  given  the c l o s e r e l a t i o n s h i p  i t i s necessary  f o r leadership  between  v o t e r s and  candidates  t o be  w e l l known and the l i k e l i h o o d o f t h e i r b e i n g a c q u a i n t e d  w i t h many d e l e g a t e s p r i o r t o the convention i s s t r o n g . leadership  convention  may  be the o n l y p o l i t i c a l  I s l a n d f r e e o f r e l i g i o u s b a l a n c i n g . That  Finally, a  contest  on the  i s , w i t h no t r a d i t i o n of  r e l i g i o u s t u r n s i n p a r t y l e a d e r s h i p , c a n d i d a t e s o f both f a i t h s may f a c e each o t h e r and the p o s s i b i l i t y presents  based  voting  itself.  Convention The  of r e l i g i o u s l y  Context  conventions t o be examined i n t h i s study cover a p e r i o d  of PEI p o l i t i c s from 1976 t o 1981. I t was a p e r i o d t h a t began with the L i b e r a l s dominating Alex  Campbell,  the p r o v i n c i a l scene.  The L i b e r a l s ,  under  d e f e a t e d the C o n s e r v a t i v e government o f Walter Shaw  i n the e l e c t i o n o f 1966 and went on t o r e c o r d f u r t h e r v i c t o r i e s i n  1970  and 1974. As t h e next  election  drew c l o s e r  a s s u r e d o f making h i s t o r y by becoming t h e f i r s t win  Campbell  I s l a n d premier t o  four successive e l e c t i o n s . In  t h e t e n years  f o l l o w i n g Campbell's  first  v i c t o r y , the  C o n s e r v a t i v e s had a new l e a d e r f o r each d e f e a t . T h e i r l a s t the  seemed  elderly  permanently Key,  who  Shaw,  retired  shortly  after  premier,  t h e 1966 l o s s .  He was  r e p l a c e d i n 1968 by t h e mayor o f Summerside,  proved  unable  t o win even  h i s own  seat  George  i n t h e 1970  e l e c t i o n . In 1973, t h e p a r t y t u r n e d t o a f e d e r a l MP t o  improve i t s  f o r t u n e s . M e l v i n MacQuaid was a c c l a i m e d l e a d e r , but was unable t o return  the Conservatives  t o power  i n 1974. Indeed,  under h i s  l e a d e r s h i p t h e p a r t y won only s i x o f 32 s e a t s . He soon r e s i g n e d t o accept a j u d i c i a l appointment. The f i r s t convention t o be examined here was h e l d t o r e p l a c e him. I t was t h e t h i r d Tory c o n v e n t i o n i n l e s s than e i g h t y e a r s . Two c a n d i d a t e s emerged t o c o n t e s t t h e l e a d e r s h i p . The f i r s t was  t h e most  prominent  Conservative  on  the I s l a n d — J .  Angus  MacLean. MacLean had an e x t e n s i v e background i n I s l a n d p o l i t i c s . A war hero and farmer, MacLean, 64, was a s i t t i n g MP w i t h 25 years o f p a r l i a m e n t a r y e x p e r i e n c e . During the Diefenbaker years i n o f f i c e he s e r v e d as t h e I s l a n d r e p r e s e n t a t i v e i n t h e f e d e r a l c a b i n e t , h o l d i n g the  Fisheries  Queens county The  portfolio.  MacLean was from  Belle  River  i n rural  and was a P r e s b y t e r i a n .  other candidate was much l e s s e x p e r i e n c e d . Jim Lee, 39,  had h e l d e l e c t i v e o f f i c e f o r l e s s than a year. He was f i r s t in  a  1975 b y - e l e c t i o n i n 5 t h Queens.  His previous  elected  political  70 background c o n s i s t e d of many years as a p a r t y o r g a n i z e r i n c l u d i n g a stint  as  provincial  from the C h a r l o t t e t o w n  director  p a r t y as t h e i r top p r i o r i t y MacLean  experience,  advertising  hardly  with  and  a  realter  s t r e s s e d the r e o r g a n i z a t i o n of the  they waged very d i f f e r e n t  campaigned  h i s understanding  identification  was  suburb of Parkdale and a C a t h o l i c .  Although both c a n d i d a t e s  Indeed  of the p a r t y . Lee  of the  agriculture  adopted  at  a very  and low  a l l . He  rural the  key  way  stressed  of  life  fisheries. style.  campaigns. his  and  He  his  eschewed  In c o n t r a s t ,  Lee  campaigned v o c i f e r o u s l y a l l over the I s l a n d and bought l a r g e ads i n the  Charlottetown  and  Summerside papers.  Nothing  i n the  way  of  a c t u a l p o l i c y disagreements  marked the campaign ( H a l i f a x C h r o n i c l e  H e r a l d , September 27 1976:  1,2).  Lee was  not expected t o d e f e a t MacLean and he d i d not. On a  r a i n y Saturday t h a t kept almost away, MacLean won  a t h i r d of the e l i g i b l e d e l e g a t e s  by a margin of 589  t h a t h i s campaign was  t o 437.  Lee  later  indicated  designed more t o r a i s e h i s p r o f i l e than  to  d e f e a t MacLean. MacLean proved predecessors. dramatically  In the  a more s u c c e s s f u l l e a d e r than h i s immediate 1978  provincial  increased t h e i r  vote  forming the government. A L i b e r a l w i t h i n s i x months of the  and  election  his  Conservatives  came w i t h i n two  leadership convention  seats  followed  election.  A l e x Campbell began h i s tenure as premier w i t h a narrow v i c t o r y i n the 1966  of  17-15  e l e c t i o n and a f t e r two massive v i c t o r i e s again  found h i m s e l f f a c i n g an almost evenly d i v i d e d l e g i s l a t u r e  (17-15)  71 and  a popular  Conservative  l e a d e r . Campbell was s u r p r i s e d by the  closeness of the e l e c t i o n r e s u l t him,  and, g i v e n t h e s i t u a t i o n  had l i t t l e d e s i r e t o c a r r y on as premier.  comfortable margin a l l o w i n g him t o step down  facing  He had expected a  g r a c e f u l l y i n two or  t h r e e y e a r s . Obviously, t h i s was no l o n g e r a l i k e l y s c e n a r i o and i n a very  controversial  leader,premier (Halifax later  and MLA j u s t  C h r o n i c l e Herald,  the federal  judicial  move Campbell  Liberals  announced h i s r e s i g n a t i o n as  a few weeks a f t e r September rewarded  t h e 1978 e l e c t i o n  14 1978: 5) . A few months t h e former  premier  with  a  appointment.  Under t h e circumstances t h e L i b e r a l caucus s e l e c t e d a c a b i n e t minister  to  Campbell—no  serve  as  relation  'interim  premier'.  t o the previous  They  premier.  chose  Bennett  Bennett  became one o f t h e two c a n d i d a t e s at t h e 197 8 c o n v e n t i o n .  Campbell Campbell,  35, was a former h i g h s c h o o l t e a c h e r from Cardigan i n Kings First  county.  e l e c t e d t o t h e l e g i s l a t u r e i n 1970 Campbell was a p o l i t i c a l  v e t e r a n w i t h s e v e r a l c a b i n e t p o r t f o l i o s on h i s resume. A C a t h o l i c , he  had t h e announced  support  o f seven  of h i s fellow  cabinet  ministers. The outsider.  o t h e r candidate, Mitchell,  Gerard M i t c h e l l ,  35, had never stood  was  for  p o l i t i c a l experience c o n s i s t e d o f a term as  something o f an  p u b l i c o f f i c e . His  P r e s i d e n t o f t h e Young  L i b e r a l A s s o c i a t i o n o f PEI and a l o s i n g attempt t o g a i n a f e d e r a l nomination. provincial  Mitchell  was a lawyer  and a former  c o u r t . He was a C a t h o l i c from  announced support  from  caucus.  Justice  Charlottetown  o f the with no  72 As one would expect, t h e campaign f e a t u r e d Campbell s t r e s s i n g h i s experience party,  while  M i t c h e l l emphasized t h e need t o r e b u i l d the  something he as an o u t s i d e r  ( H a l i f a x C h r o n i c l e Herald, key  campaign with  little  was b e t t e r  positioned  t o do  December 9 1978: 2 ) . Campbell r a n a low travelling  around t h e p r o v i n c e .  He was  able, as i n t e r i m premier, t o employ a 'Rose Garden' s t r a t e g y his  office  t o command  attention  and t a k i n g  advantage  using  o f two  t e l e v i s e d F i r s t M i n i s t e r s ' Conferences. H i s campaign focused on the need t o  spread  industry  throughout  the province  and develop a  s m a l l town s o c i e t y . Mitchell  campaigned v i g o r o u s l y a t t a c k i n g t h e government as  out o f touch with t h e grass  r o o t s o f t h e p a r t y and condemning t h e  d e c i s i o n o f so many c a b i n e t m i n i s t e r s t o support Campbell. M i t c h e l l presented  h i m s e l f as one o f t h e ' f o o t s o l d i e r s ' o f t h e p a r t y and  described h i s philosophy the best 2).  o f government as 'the l e a s t government i s  government' ( H a l i f a x C h r o n i c l e Herald,  His  candidacy  Charlottetown  business  suffered  from  his  December 11 1978:  identification  with  i n t e r e s t s and t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e convention  were p r e d i c t a b l y one-sided: Campbell won an easy 963-382 v i c t o r y . In 1981 both p a r t i e s chose new l e a d e r s and i n a l a r g e r sense Island p o l i t i c s over.  a l s o changed as a new g e n e r a t i o n  The p e r i o d  representative  o f change  began  i n February  i n the f e d e r a l cabinet,  of leaders when  took  the Island  Dan MacDonald,  died.  On  March 3, Bennett Campbell r e s i g n e d as L i b e r a l and o p p o s i t i o n l e a d e r to contest  t h e f e d e r a l b y - e l e c t i o n h e l d t o r e p l a c e MacDonald. He  undoubtedly expected t o be appointed  t o the f e d e r a l cabinet  i f he  73 won  and h i s v i c t o r y was His  three  years  f o l l o w e d by such an appointment. as  Liberal  leader  had  not  been  markedly  s u c c e s s f u l . S e r v i n g as premier i n the evenly d i v i d e d l e g i s l a t u r e of 1978/79  proved  difficult  and  less  than  three  months  after  his  s e l e c t i o n he asked the L i e u t e n a n t Governor t o c a l l an e l e c t i o n . His L i b e r a l s were b a d l y  beaten i n t h i s e l e c t i o n w i t h MacLean's T o r i e s  winning 21 s e a t s and  t h e i r l a r g e s t share of the p o p u l a r vote s i n c e  b e f o r e World War MacLean speculated  I.  was  67  when he  became premier  t h a t he would serve o n l y one  t h i s s p e c u l a t i o n i n August of 1981  i t was  term. MacLean  widely  confirmed  when he announced t h a t he would  r e t i r e b e f o r e the end. of the year, only two  and  having  s e r v e d as premier  and a h a l f years and as Tory l e a d e r f o r j u s t f i v e .  by the end of the summer of 1981,  for  Thus,  both p a r t i e s were engaged i n the  p r o c e s s of l e a d e r s h i p s e l e c t i o n w i t h simultaneous  campaigns b e i n g  waged. The  L i b e r a l s were the f i r s t  scheduled  f o r October  r a c e . The  first  was  alone i n the  24.  Again  t o choose with t h e i r o n l y two  candidates  convention  were i n the  candidate, i n t e r i m p a r t y l e a d e r G i l b e r t  Clements,  race f o r two months u n t i l Joe Ghiz e n t e r e d i n the  l a t e stages. The c o n t r a s t between the two candidates was  s t r o n g . Clements  was much o l d e r , 53 t o Ghiz's 36. Clements was much more e x p e r i e n c e d with t e n years of l e g i s l a t i v e e x p e r i e n c e . He had h e l d a number of cabinet  positions  before  becoming,  by  caucus  choice,  interim  l e a d e r , a p o s i t i o n i n which he a p p a r e n t l y a c q u i t t e d h i m s e l f q u i t e  well  (Adamson, 1983).  Ghiz was  not an MLA  a l t h o u g h he had  often  worked on L i b e r a l campaigns and u n t i l h i s e n t r y i n t o the campaign was  P r e s i d e n t of the p r o v i n c i a l p a r t y . Clements was  w h i l e Ghiz was (Atlantic  from C h a r l o t t e t o w n and i n I s l a n d terms a ' c i t y  Insight,  e d u c a t i o n than Law  degree  from Kings county, born and r a i s e d i n Montague  December  Clements.  Ghiz was  of PEI"  Clements was Ghiz was  Ghiz  a lawyer who  (Charlottetown Guardian,  also a t y p i c a l  The  candidates  ran  had  more  formal  h e l d a Master  a businessman who  of had  claimed h i s o n l y e d u c a t i o n i n "the October  21  1981:  3).  I s l a n d e r of Anglo Saxon descent while  of Lebanese background.  emphasized  20).  from Harvard w h i l e Clements was  never attended u n i v e r s i t y and problems  1981:  boy'  very  Both c a n d i d a t e s were P r o t e s t a n t . different  campaigns  but  both  s t y l e r a t h e r than p o l i c y . Clements p r e s e n t e d h i m s e l f as  the a r c h e t y p i c a l I s l a n d e r s t r e s s i n g h i s I s l a n d r o o t s and e x p l a i n i n g that  Island  Canada  politics  (Charlottetown  advantage  were d i f f e r e n t Guardian,  from p o l i t i c s  October  21  1981:  elsewhere 3).  He  in  took  of h i s l e g i s l a t i v e seat t o d i s p l a y h i s e x p e r i e n c e and h i s  'preparedness' f o r the l e a d e r s h i p . In essence, h i s campaign focused on e x p e r i e n c e , c o n t i n u i t y , the v a l u e of a l e g i s l a t i v e seat and the virtues  of a complete  Island  background;  a l l of which he  could  o f f e r and Ghiz c o u l d not. Ghiz campaigned on the need f o r r e a l the  party  and  attract  October 24 1981: background  new  candidates"  change "to  (Charlottetown  revitalize Guardian,  3). He t r i e d t o p l a y down h i s e d u c a t i o n and  city  s a y i n g "I've p i c k e d l o t s of p o t a t o e s and attended l o t s  75 of  barn dances" as w e l l as c l a i m i n g t o have eaten many u n d e r s i z e d  lobsters  (Atlantic Insight,  December 1981: 20).  As t h e convention d e l e g a t e s gathered the r a c e appeared close  but the speeches  seemed t o p r o v i d e  Ghiz  with  very  a lift.  He  compared h i m s e l f t o Angus MacLean i n h i s l a c k o f a l e g i s l a t i v e seat and d e l i v e r e d what  was c o n s i d e r e d an e x c e l l e n t speech. As Adamson  explained,  "perhaps  Ghiz  oratorical skills;  won  the  convention  because  c e r t a i n l y they d i d not h i n d e r him" (1983: 5,6).  The convention r e s u l t was somewhat unexpected a huge margin. Ghiz took results  were  905 votes t o j u s t  described  as  Clements and supposedly  an  "apparent  as Ghiz won by  482 f o r Clements. The  slap  i n the face" f o r  came from a l l p a r t s o f t h e I s l a n d ( H a l i f a x  C h r o n i c l e H e r a l d , October The  of h i s  Conservative  26 1981: 1,2). convention  was  more  hotly  contested,  perhaps because the p r i z e f o r the v i c t o r was t h e premier's and  almost  half  a term  of o f f i c e .  Four  candidates,  office  a l l o f them  c a b i n e t m i n i s t e r s , sought t h i s p r i z e . MacLean's c h a l l e n g e r o f 1976, Jim  Lee,  again  sought  the  leadership  this  time  as  the most  e x p e r i e n c e d c a n d i d a t e . The other t h r e e c a n d i d a t e s were e l e c t e d f o r the  first  time i n 1978.  Fred D r i s c o l l , of in  49, was the o l d e s t c a n d i d a t e . He was M i n i s t e r  E d u c a t i o n and r e p r e s e n t e d the r i d i n g o f 3 r d Queens. He was born Mount  Hebert,  Charlottetown  just  suburb.  east  o f Charlottetown,  and  lived  in a  He was a former h i s t o r y p r o f e s s o r at UPEI.  Barry C l a r k , 33, was the only P r o t e s t a n t i n t h e r a c e . He was not only  Minister  of  Energy  but  was  a  Protestant  clergyman  in  76 Charlottetown.  Clark  represented  f i n a l c a n d i d a t e , Pat Binns, 33, was politics. only  Binns  after  he  was  born  married  the  riding  of  Queens.  The  something of a r a r i t y i n I s l a n d  i n Saskatchewan and  an  6th  I s l a n d woman he  came t o the I s l a n d  met  at u n i v e r s i t y .  He  s e t t l e d i n Murray Harbour i n Kings county where, b e f o r e he became M i n i s t e r of F i s h e r i e s , he worked as a community p l a n n e r and The  campaign  was  quite  C h a r l o t t e t o w n Guardian have  p r e f e r r e d to  coverage 1981:  and  3).  Still,  divisions. strong  The  the  delegates  out  in  the  media  c a n d i d a t e s . As Driscoll basis  free  described  of i s s u e s .  privately  provided  hints  the  Candidates  without  of  by  news  media  (November 7  potential  voting  C h a r l o t t e t o w n paper p o i n t e d out t h a t D r i s c o l l in  eastern  was  Queens  part  (Guardian, November 7 1981: Attention  well  t h e i r message i n the m a i l "  r e g i o n a l support  popular  and  as "remarkably  meet  t o send  long  farmer.  also  of  the  to  these  province  and  Binns  [Kings  "are  county]"  the  religion  of  the  four  pondered "Jim Lee, Pat Binns and F r e d  are a l l Roman C a t h o l i c s and  of r e l i g i o n  Clark  1). given  the Guardian  while  had  i f any  three could f i n d  split  occurs  themselves  on  the  s h a r i n g the  C a t h o l i c v o t e . B a r r y C l a r k , an o r d a i n e d P r o t e s t a n t M i n i s t e r , would be expected t o capture most of the P r o t e s t a n t vote i n such a s p l i t . Some say r e l i g i o n i s no l o n g e r an important r'ace or even i n p r o v i n c i a l  politics.  thinking"  1).  (November 7 1981:  factor i n a leadership  Others  say t h i s  i s wishful  At the convention C l a r k a p p a r e n t l y 'shone' i n the and  his  candidacy  was  thus  boosted  (Charlottetown  speeches Guardian,  November 9 1981: 4 ) . out i n f r o n t 237  The r e s u l t s  ballot  p l a c e d Lee  w i t h 581 votes t o 348 f o r C l a r k , 282 f o r D r i s c o l l and  f o r Binns. Binns was f o r c e d  move  of the f i r s t  h i s support  to  Driscoll.  o f f the b a l l o t This  proved  and attempted t o u n s u c c e s s f u l and  D r i s c o l l ' s vote a c t u a l l y d e c l i n e d t o 261 on t h e second b a l l o t ; w e l l behind both C l a r k at 453 and Lee with 665. The f i n a l b a l l o t saw Lee win w i t h 737 t o 577 f o r C l a r k . J o u r n a l i s t i c focused on t h e impact potential  regional  shown, these  coverage  of the voting  o f C l a r k ' s speech and d i d not f o l l o w up the  and r e l i g i o u s  divisions  division.  were r a t h e r s t r i k i n g  However,  as w i l l  at t h i s  be  as w e l l as  other conventions. The d e l e g a t e s t o these conventions share many  characteristics  w i t h d e l e g a t e s t o conventions p r e v i o u s l y s t u d i e d i n Canada. is,  they  a r e a r a t h e r e l i t e group with  more e d u c a t i o n and more  p r e s t i g i o u s occupations than t h e i r f e l l o w c i t i z e n s . Although reflect  That  t h e p r o v i n c e ' s p o p u l a t i o n i n terms o f county,  they  community  s i z e and e t h n i c o r i g i n , n e i t h e r women nor C a t h o l i c s were p r e s e n t i n the numbers t h e i r warrant. Catholics  share  o f t h e g e n e r a l p o p u l a t i o n suggests  they  The 1981 C o n s e r v a t i v e convention was t h e e x c e p t i o n with a c c o u n t i n g f o r 47% o f t h e d e l e g a t e t o t a l .  I t may have  been t h e bad weather o f 197 6 t h a t h e l d t h e C a t h o l i c percentage t o 40. to  In g e n e r a l , d e l e g a t e s t o these conventions appear very convention goers elsewhere.  despite the ' e l i t e ' t i n t , somewhat poorer,  less  I t should be noted,  similar  however,  that  d e l e g a t e s t o t h e I s l a n d conventions are  educated  and o l d e r than d e l e g a t e s t o other  Maritime c o n v e n t i o n s . Given t h e l i m i t e d p o p u l a t i o n o f t h e I s l a n d ,  78 and  the low c o s t s  associated  with  attending  a convention  there,  t h i s i s not o v e r l y s u r p r i s i n g . Before p r o c e e d i n g  with a d i s c u s s i o n of v o t i n g d i v i s i o n s i t i s  n e c e s s a r y t o note some of the unique c a t e g o r i e s t h a t must be used to  examine  categories to  this  geographic  province.  Region  is  the  defined  d i v i s i o n s i n t o Kings,  p o t e n t i a l urban/rural  Island.  The  the I s l a n d  Prince  as  county  relevant  There  i s rural  the  and Queens. On PEI, a  are few m e t r o p o l i t a n i n a way  specific with  vote cleavage cannot be a s s e s s e d  common c a t e g o r i e s .  indeed,  on  f o r the geographic v a r i a b l e s on PEI are q u i t e  corresponding  most  divisions  like  no  u s i n g the  areas  other  and,  province.  S t a t i s t i c s Canada's d e f i n i t i o n of r u r a l as a community of l e s s than a thousand r e s i d e n t s f i t s most of the p r o v i n c e . the  l a r g e r centres  population  in  Charlottetown, size,  must  excess  be m o d i f i e d , of  twenty  given  The d i v i s i o n s of  that  thousand  no  and  city  has a  only  one,  has over t e n thousand. The c a t e g o r i e s f o r community  then, w i l l be l e s s than a thousand, between a thousand and  t e n thousand, and over t e n thousand.  Geographic D i v i s i o n s Media coverage of the f o u r conventions r a i s e d the p o s s i b i l i t y of  r e g i o n a l d i v i s i o n s at only o n e — t h e 1981 C o n s e r v a t i v e .  the media e x p l i c i t l y denied the  L i b e r a l convention  the p o s s i b i l i t y o f r e g i o n a l v o t i n g at  of 1981 by c l a i m i n g t h a t Ghiz's v i c t o r y was  p r o v i n c e wide. T h e i r 1981 'Tory' was  Indeed,  c o n t e n t i o n appears more v a l i d . I t  suggested t h a t Binns and C l a r k had e x t e n s i v e  support  i n Kings  79 county  while  appears  largely  make  Driscoll's  support  accurate.  was  from  A n a l y s i s of the  Queens first  county.  ballot  c l e a r t h a t support f o r the l a s t p l a c e Binns was  among h i s f r i e n d s and neighbours  This  results  concentrated  from Kings from whom he r e c e i v e d  a p l u r a l i t y . U n f o r t u n a t e l y f o r h i s candidacy t h i s r e p r e s e n t e d of  h i s s t r e n g t h and he was unable t o win even 10% vote shares  delegates similar Queens  o u t s i d e the  r e g i o n . Support  p a t t e r n . Seventy-one county  and  he  percent  finished  for Driscoll of  second  his  to  from  displayed a  support  Lee  64%  in  came  that  from  region.  D r i s c o l l ' s vote share d i d not exceed 10% elsewhere. C l a r k a c t u a l l y did  not  a t t r a c t noteworthy  had b r o a d l y based support. Subsequent b a l l o t s relations,  but  support i n Kings but both he and (See Table 4:1  d i d not  i t i s useful  show  t o note  for regional  results.)  statistically the  regional  Lee  significant  nature  of  the  v o t e . On  the second b a l l o t , w i t h the mandatory e x c l u s i o n of Binns,  Lee  a  won  plurality  of  votes  from  each  region.  Despite  an  endorsement from Binns, D r i s c o l l p o l l e d the fewest v o t e s from Kings d e l e g a t e s — a l b e i t s u b s t a n t i a l l y more than on the f i r s t b a l l o t .  He  s u f f e r e d vote s l i p p a g e i n support from d e l e g a t e s i n o t h e r r e g i o n s and  fell  slightly  behind  Clark  in  Queens.  The  final  ballot  d i s p l a y e d no s i g n of a r e g i o n a l cleavage. Only two c a n d i d a t e s from g r e a t e r C h a r l o t t e t o w n remained from d e l e g a t e s i n each At  the  assertions, did  not win  Liberal  and Lee won  comfortable m a j o r i t i e s  region. convention  of  1981,  contrary  ( H a l i f a x C h r o n i c l e Herald, October 26 1981:  to 1,2)  media Ghiz  a p r o v i n c e wide v i c t o r y . His huge margin d i s g u i s e d a  80 r e g i o n a l anomaly. cast  by  almost  A c t u a l l y , Clements won  his friends a  Island's  third  of  and the  neighbours votes  he  s m a l l e s t r e g i o n . Ghiz,  a m a j o r i t y of the votes  from  Kings  county.  r e c e i v e d came of  course,  won  from the  Indeed, this,  two  the  larger  regions handily. A somewhat s i m i l a r p a t t e r n was  apparent  i n 1978.  Campbell's  overwhelming v i c t o r y was not q u i t e as a l l encompassing as h i s huge margin of v i c t o r y might suggest. support  i n each  attributable  Although  Campbell  won  majority  r e g i o n , the magnitude of h i s v i c t o r y was  t o the  r e p r e s e n t i n g Kings  85%  of the vote  he  r e c e i v e d from  delegates  and P r i n c e . M i t c h e l l made a r e l a t i v e l y  showing w i t h d e l e g a t e s from  largely  strong  h i s home county of Queens. F o r t y - f o u r  p e r c e n t of those d e l e g a t e s voted f o r him p r o v i d i n g over h a l f of h i s total  support. Only the 1976  a statistically and  it  may  be  candidates—Lee  C o n s e r v a t i v e convention f a i l e d t o  demonstrate  s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n between r e g i o n and v o t i n g the and  exception  that  MacLean—were  proves  from  Queens  the and  rule.  Both  thus  shared  f r i e n d s and neighbours. A c t u a l l y , t h i s conforms t o one element of f r i e n d s and neighbours voting  in Mississippi.  v o t i n g found by T a t o l o v i c h i n h i s study of According  to  his  analysis  such  support  p a t t e r n s are "more frequent when c a n d i d a t e s do not r e s i d e i n the same approximate  g e o g r a p h i c a l area of the s t a t e "  (1975: 809). T h i s  was  t r u e of Lee and MacLean and support f o r each c a n d i d a t e , then,  was  reasonably constant i n each r e g i o n .  81 T a b l e 4-1 V o t e by County* Kings  Queens  Prince  1978 Campbell  84%*  56%  87%  Mitchell  16  44*  13  C h i Square significant  n=38  n=80  n=38  <.000  1981 L i b e r a l Clements  55%*  31%  .20%  Ghiz  45  69*  80  C h i Square significant  n=31  n=75  n=59  <.000  1981 P.C. Binns  40%*  Clark  20 7  Driscoll Lee  33  5%  9%  24*  29  28*  10  43*  52  C h i Square n=45 n=86 s i g n i f i c a n t <.000 An a s t e r i s k i n d i c a t e s e a c h c a n d i d a t e ' s home Nonetheless, of  support  while  MacLean's  rural  areas. Similar'  voted was  size  s t r o n g i n t h e more u r b a n strength  Delegates  much d i f f e r e n t l y  could  from  a b l e t o w i n an o u t r i g h t  d e l e g a t e s . Almost  be  others  candidacy  sections of the province  seen  Charlottetown  than  from t h e c a p i t a l , b u t took  d i v e r g e . Lee's  l a y predominantly  divisions  county.  was c o n s i d e r e d t h e p a t t e r n s  f o r L e e a n d MacLean b e g a n t o  was r e l a t i v e l y  convention.  when community  n=68  with  at  delegates  the  (community  at that  1978  Liberal  over  10,000)  convention.  majority of votes  from  Mitchell  c a s t by d e l e g a t e s  l e s s t h a n 30% o f t h e v o t e s c a s t b y o t h e r  30% o f h i s t o t a l  support  came f r o m  the city,  as  82 compared clearly  to  less  than  i n h i s Charlottetown  Again  a t t h e 1981  s h o w i n g made by G h i z support percent This  10%  provided  convention,  i n Queens c o u n t y  by  Mitchell's  base  delegates from  Charlottetown.  Eighty  h i s home town v o t e d  one  from  enhances  understanding  a t t h e 1981  of  the  Islanders.  Nearly  half  of  his  P.C.  geographic  d i v i s i o n . I t was e v i d e n t t h a t L e e drew p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y more  delegates  of  f o r him.  h i s r e g i o n a l support  o f t h e community s i z e v a r i a b l e  greatly  urban  weak  disguised the high l e v e l  from this  the r e l a t i v e l y  69%.  Examination  from  was  home.  contrasts favourably with  Queens o f o n l y  convention  Campbell's.  Liberal  of the delegates  support  of  support  support  came  from  r e p r e s e n t i n g urban areas w h i l e t h e o t h e r c a n d i d a t e s had  l e s s t h a n a q u a r t e r o f t h e i r s u p p o r t so b a s e d . C l a r k ' s s t r e n g t h was 83%  r u r a l a n d he r a n k e d  based  delegates.  It  finished  second  Driscoll very  distant  support  was  The division. relative  no h i g h e r t h a n t h i r d  second  largely  i s also  interesting  i n support  making from  from  to  note  from  that  urban  that,  Charlottetown,  i t obvious  rural  i n support  while  i t was  h i s Queens  county  delegates.  second b a l l o t  showed an e v e n more p r o n o u n c e d u r b a n / r u r a l  L e e won  m a j o r i t i e s from  weakness  huge among  rural  urban  delegates  delegates,  forced  another  but h i s ballot.  C l a r k ' s b a s e r e m a i n e d r u r a l a n d he a t t r a c t e d t h e l e a s t s u p p o r t Charlottetown took was  a  d e l e g a t e s . The f i n a l b a l l o t  over three-quarters of the votes particularly  from  c o n t i n u e d t h e t r e n d . Lee  c a s t by u r b a n d e l e g a t e s a n d  successful i n Charlottetown  where he won  82% o f  83 t h e v o t e . C l a r k was c o m p e t i t i v e o n l y among r u r a l d e l e g a t e s who g a v e him  44% o f t h e i r This  delegate  votes  description  voting at Island  friends  and n e i g h b o u r s  the  In was by  of  more  other  areas  of  was  r e g i o n s . Lee's  from  where  rural  voting  such  even  results It in  Queens  delegate wider  support  Queens  county,  examining  the  and e v e n t h e r e MacLean was  supported  regional  t r e n d was  as weak i n r u r a l  Queens  apparent  as i t was i n  l a y i n the non-Charlottetown  delegates  actually  supported  f o r MacLean  the area  which  (See T a b l e  over lived.  was p r o v i d e d by  contains support  4-2  urban  him  t h i s was t h e a r e a i n w h i c h L e e  of support  Queens,  obvious  1978 from  urban  that  Liberal  h i s home  can thus  f o r community  be  size  t h e s t r o n g showing o f M i t c h e l l convention  Charlottetown.  urban/rural s p l i t  d e l e g a t e s from  deeper  county.)  a l s o becomes at the  a  delegates  f o r L e e a n d MacLean.  f o r Queens  are  f i t into  t o probe  by  f o r Lee from  'town' o f B e l l e R i v e r . F r i e n d s and n e i g h b o u r s seen  cleavages  divisions  division  on  urban  base  the highest l e v e l  delegates  support  d e l e g a t e s . No  MacLean. Not c o i n c i d e n t a l l y , As w e l l ,  and t h a t  geographic  county  candidacy  Queens  geographic  variables  variables.  Charlottetown  because Lee's the  the  the apparent  l i m i t e d t o Queens  of geographic  framework. I t i s p o s s i b l e  o f t h e two  1976/  that  conventions  nature  interaction  of the e f f e c t  suggests  present  into  f o r 77% o f h i s s u p p o r t .  s i n c e Campbell  I t was  was  produced  by h i s  not i n d i c a t i v e  literally  of a  r o u t e d h i m among  areas of other r e g i o n s . M i t c h e l l d i d best i n  b u t was  really  popular  only with urban  delegates  84 who, l i k e he, l i v e d At  the  distributed  1981  i n Charlottetown. Liberal  convention  e v e n l y between t h e r u r a l  Clements'  strength  and urban areas  was  o f h i s home  r e g i o n . A s w e l l , he drew d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e s u p p o r t f r o m d e l e g a t e s i n rural  Queens.  With  other  delegates  Ghiz d i d p o o r l y i n a l l o f Kings,  h i s candidacy  was v e r y  relatively poorly i n rural  weak.  Queens,  b u t e x c e e d i n g l y w e l l i n r u r a l P r i n c e . The h i g h e s t l e v e l o f s u p p o r t given Ghiz Ghiz's  came f r o m  only  county—  strong  his friends support  and neighbours  from  t h e a r e a most removed f r o m  The  interaction  of  the  the nature  o f each  Conservative  convention.  Binns  o f Kings,  but not with  delegates  was  i n Prince  C l e m e n t s ' home b a s e  two  elucidates  parts  rural  i n Charlottetown.  geographic  candidate's  d i d well delegates  with from  variables  base  also  a t t h e 1981  delegates any o t h e r  from a l l geographic  a r e a . L e e ' s s t r e n g t h was g r e a t e s t i n t h e u r b a n a r e a s o f P r i n c e a n d Queens  where  delegates  gave  him easy  majorities.  Delegates  from  r u r a l Queens a c t u a l l y gave D r i s c o l l a n d C l a r k more v o t e s t h a n L e e . On  t h e second  delegates ways—Lee  from  ballot, rural  Lee's  s t r e n g t h broadened.  Queens—who  won p l u r a l i t i e s f r o m  split  every  area.  their  Aside  from t h e  support  The f i n a l  three  ballot  gave  Lee m a j o r i t i e s f r o m d e l e g a t e s i n a l l a r e a s o f e a c h r e g i o n . C l a r k ' s o n l y r e s p e c t a b l e s h o w i n g came f r o m  delegates  i n rural  Queens.  85 Table 4-2 Vote by Community S i z e i n Queens County Over 10,000  1000-10,000  1976 Lee  48%  57%*  33%  MacLean  52  43  67*  Chi Square s i g n i f i c a n t <.01  n=42  Less than 1000  n=20  n=13  1978 Campbell  48%  50%  63%  Mitchell  52*  50  38  Chi Square s i g n i f i c a n t <.01  n=40  n=16  n=23  1981 L i b e r a l Clements  19%  29%  42%  Ghiz  81*  71  58  Chi Square significant 1981 P.C. Binns  <.01  n=17  n=31  n=2 6  5%  6%  Clark  16*  Driscoll  21  22  33*  Lee  58  72*  25  6%  36  n=48 Chi Square n=18 n=19 s i g n i f i c a n t <.01 An a s t e r i s k i n d i c a t e s the home area of a candidate. I t i s e v i d e n t t h a t t h e geographic v o t i n g d i v i s i o n s i n d i c a t e a s t r o n g p a t t e r n o f f r i e n d s and neighbours and  v o t i n g . Examining r e g i o n  community s i z e simultaneously i n d i c a t e s t h e u b i q u i t o u s nature  of t h i s phenomenon. In 197 6 when Lee and MacLean were from the same r e g i o n and no obvious f r i e n d s and neighbours support appeared, some actually  e x i s t e d . Each candidate  support with  attracted  h i s highest  l e v e l of  d e l e g a t e s from h i s home p a r t of Queens c o u n t y — i n the  86 case o f MacLean r u r a l Queens and f o r Lee suburban Similarly, stand  G h i z — w h o s e support  out—  received  Charlottetown d e l e g a t e s and neighbours  a  overall  higher  Charlottetown.  i n Queens county  proportion  of  d i d not  support  from  than he d i d from other d e l e g a t e s . F r i e n d s  support was  s t r o n g and c o n s i s t e n t .  S o c i a l Groups To begin the a n a l y s i s o f s o c i a l group v a r i a b l e s i t i s u s e f u l to  s t a r t with i n s t i t u t i o n a l groups.  The media coverage  o f f e r e d no  i n d i c a t i o n o f d i v i s i o n s on the b a s i s of age or gender but the f a c t t h a t the two L i b e r a l conventions i n v o l v e d designated possible  as i n t e r i m  division  leaders—and  between  candidates who had been  i n 1978 P r e m i e r — s u g g e s t s  the b r a s s  and the g r a s s .  a  The p a r t y  establishment may have acted t o endorse t h e d e c i s i o n made by the caucus.  Indeed,  significantly 1978,  the v o t i n g  from  of  ex-officio  delegates  t h a t of the r e g u l a r d e l e g a t e s .  Although, i n  both delegate groups gave m a j o r i t y support t o Campbell, h i s  share o f the e x - o f f i c i o vote was a massive 88%. F u l l y support for  differed  39% of h i s  came from these delegates while the corresponding  Mitchell  surprisingly,  the e x - o f f i c i o  d e l e g a t e s were s t r o n g l y behind the a c t i n g Premier.  (See Table 4-3).  More  was  surprising  d e l e g a t e s were not was i n t e r i m  only  13%. Not  figure  was  the 1981  result:  Liberal  ex-officio  behind Clements i n s p i t e of the f a c t t h a t he  l e a d e r . Support and f u l l y  f o r Ghiz  was much h i g h e r  among ex-  officio  delegates  42% of h i s s t r e n g t h came from  that  group,  compared t o only 24% o f Clements' support. Obviously, the  87 p o s i t i o n of i n t e r i m l e a d e r d i d not to  1978/  the  ex-officio  caucus  different. party  was  leader, dynamic  out  Liberal  choice  party  to  I t a p p e a r s t h a t the*  repeated  and  o p p o s i t i o n seem t o p r e f e r that  rarest  of  them  was  the  Premier  acting  when A l e x  to  overturning  and  C a m p b e l l was  opted  power.  Conservatives  radically  in  the  chosen  f o r a younger This  more  provides  1976  who  instinctive  reactions  an  chose  of each  an  this  party.  r e f l e x i v e response of the T o r i e s i n o p p o s i t i o n  a  of  the  about the  older  they  not  in  contrast  i n hopes o f e l e c t i o n v i c t o r y . Perhaps  i s t o c h o o s e an choice  was  delegates  situation  in opposition  contrast- to  something  the  i n 1965,  return  man  l e d other  course  o f power. As  traditional  reveals  Of  caucus  leader  interesting older,  choice. The  the  delegates  a i d C l e m e n t s . In s t a r k  experienced  in  1988.  1  In  y o u n g e r and  Maritime  candidate contrast,  for their the  leader,  Liberals  'newer' l e a d e r s . T h i s  phenomena—a  difference  in  hints  between  the  parties.  I n 1988 t h e T o r i e s s e l e c t e d an e x p e r i e n c e d G a s s as t h e i r new l e a d e r . L i k e MacLean b e f o r e him, much y o u n g e r and l e s s e x p e r i e n c e d challenger. 1  f e d e r a l MP, Mel Gass d e f e a t e d a  88  T a b l e 4-3 V o t e by D e l e g a t e 1978  Regular  Type  Ex-Officio  Campbell  62%  88%  Mitchell  38  12  Chi Square significant  n=42  n=93 <.05.  1981 L i b e r a l Clements  38%  21%  Ghiz  62  79  Chi Square significant  n=99  n=56  <.05.  p u b l i c p o s i t i o n s they hold. Regular  the party or refers t o a l l other delegates.  Neither o f the Conservative conventions provided significant observed.  results. In  each  disproportionate  Nonetheless, case,  support  the  from  cleavage  impact  of  c a n be n o t e d  age  clear  winning  the ex-officio  higher p r o p o r t i o n o f h i s support The  a  was  came f r o m more  pattern  could  be  candidate  attracted  delegates  a n d a much  these  restrained.  a t t h e 1978 L i b e r a l  statistically  delegates. Still,  c o n v e n t i o n where  an  age  support  f o r M i t c h e l l d e c l i n e d a s t h e age o f d e l e g a t e s i n c r e a s e d . (See T a b l e 4-4).  An i d e n t i c a l ,  c a n a l s o be s e e n  but s t a t i s t i c a l l y  insignificant,  relationship  a t t h e C o n s e r v a t i v e c o n v e n t i o n o f 1976. L e e won a  m a j o r i t y o f v o t e s c a s t by d e l e g a t e s u n d e r 30, b u t l e s s t h a n a t h i r d o f t h o s e c a s t b y t h e o v e r 60 g r o u p . C o r r e s p o n d i n g l y , MacLean's v o t e share  i n c r e a s e d w i t h t h e age o f t h e d e l e g a t e s .  89 T a b l e 4-4 V o t e b y Age 1976  Under 30  30-60  O v e r 60  Lee  53%  42%  32%  MacLean  47  58  68  n=32  n=66  n=31  1978 Campbell  57%  72%  86%  Mitchell  43  28  14  Chi Square significant  The clear  n=37  final  that  institutional  gender  conventions.  n=98  n=28  <.05.  has  Male  variable  little  impact  and female  t h e same p r o p o r t i o n s  a t each  gender  gap  not  i t was  on  delegates  roughly  exists,  i s gender  but i t i s very  voting  at  supported  convention.  reflected  any  of the  candidates i n If a  political  i n delegate  voting  behaviour. This review a  relation  of the  between  conventions  v o t i n g by i n s t i t u t i o n a l  voting  a n d between  w i t h t h e more t r a d i t i o n a l  and d e l e g a t e  age a n d  type  groups  suggests  a t t h e two  Liberal  v o t i n g i n 1978. Of c o u r s e  i t is  v a r i a b l e s where s t r o n g r e l a t i o n s h i p s a r e  expected. Ethnic  divisions  were  not  very  important:  they  were  significant  o n l y a t t h e 1976 C o n s e r v a t i v e c o n v e n t i o n . A l t h o u g h t h e  non-British  delegates  population that  they  a t each  comprised  convention,  seemed t o v o t e  over  10% o f t h e  i t was o n l y  total  delegate  a t t h e 1976 g a t h e r i n g  a s a g r o u p . L e e was a b l e t o w i n o v e r 75%  o f t h e v o t e s c a s t by n o n - B r i t i s h d e l e g a t e s . T h e s e d e l e g a t e s made up  90 23% o f L e e ' s t o t a l s u p p o r t w h i l e f o r m i n g o n l y 13% o f t h e total.  MacLean,  British  origin.  descent  were 38%  In  the  personal  obviously,  more l i k e l y  four  he  conventions  was  no  do  not  solidarity.  Or  The  equal,  there  was  among  delegates  Table  only  one  candidate  at the  4-14).  1981  attracting  whose  Liberal  support  from  from t h e B r i t i s h . E t h n i c d i v i s i o n s an  expression  at l e a s t Acadians i n such  of  of n o n - B r i t i s h  (See  more s u c c e s s f u l i n  t o be  delegates  Lee.  n o n - B r i t i s h — G h i z . Yet  appear  Lebanese descent  better  to support  t h i s d e l e g a t e g r o u p t h a n he was then,  much  A l l things being  a n c e s t r y was  convention  did  convention  do  not  of  group  or minority  consider a Protestant  of  terms.  major t r a d i t i o n a l  variable  is religion  and  i t is  with  t h i s v a r i a b l e , g i v e n t h e I s l a n d ' s h i s t o r y , t h a t one m i g h t e x p e c t find  major  voting  Charlottetown religious  Guardian's  division  possibility and  at  the  1981  supported, while  recall, the  will  Guardian's  do  (See T a b l e  4-5).  i n descending  Protestants  opted  between B i n n s  and  and  came  Driscoll  the  order:  first Lee,  Clark the  fellow  politics.  and  Catholic  a  Binns third  support  Catholics.  The  The  controversy.  e v i d e n t on  ballot,  a  interesting  founded. A  Driscoll,  Over h a l f  their  the  well  v o t i n g was  f o r : Lee,  Driscoll. from  t o ease  the  of  convention.  o f t h e most  s p e c u l a t i o n was  On  instance,  possibility  area of Maritime  little  and  for  Conservative  i n the  r e l a t i o n s h i p between r e l i g i o n ballots.  may  s p e c u l a t i o n on  questions  p r o v i d e d here  The  One  o f a r e l i g i o u s c l e a v a g e i s one  controversial  evidence  divisions.  to  a l l three delegates and  Clark;  place t i e  f o r Lee, In  strong  Binns  contrast,  91 Protestants  accounted  for  74%  of C l a r k ' s  i l l u s t r a t e the d i v i s i o n , Lee took only 38% of P r o t e s t a n t The  trend  support.  To  further  over h a l f the C a t h o l i c vote, but  votes.  continued  on  the  second  ballot  with  Driscoll  o u t p o l l i n g C l a r k among C a t h o l i c s , Lee winning 60% of the C a t h o l i c vote and a v i r t u a l dead heat between Lee for  and C l a r k i n the  P r o t e s t a n t v o t e s . Only on the f i n a l b a l l o t was  contest  Lee able to win  an o u t r i g h t m a j o r i t y from both r e l i g i o u s groups. However, h i s share  of the  Protestant  vote  paled  i n comparison t o the  52%  support  given him by over t h r e e - q u a r t e r s of the C a t h o l i c s . I t i s c l e a r t h a t a s t r o n g tendency e x i s t s f o r delegates to support their  own  religious  d i s d a i n of support  group.  On  P r o t e s t a n t s f o r Lee  from P r o t e s t a n t s  was  the  final  can be  25  a candidate  ballot,  seen i n the  points  lower than  the  from  relative  fact that his his Catholic  support. Although i t escaped media a t t e n t i o n , a s i g n i f i c a n t split  was  a l s o present  i n 1976.  a b s o l u t e m a j o r i t y of the votes was  able to win  the convention and vote  At  that  convention  religious  Lee  won  c a s t by C a t h o l i c d e l e g a t e s . Yet  only a t h i r d of the P r o t e s t a n t vote and thus by a s i z a b l e margin. The  seems c l e a r and  an  unmistakable.  he  lost  r e l a t i o n between r e l i g i o n  92 Vote 1976  T a b l e 4-5 by R e l i g i o n  Protestant  Catholic  Lee  33%  57%  MacLean  67*  43  C h i Square significant  n=78  n=51  1981 Binns  13%  15%  Clark  35  Driscoll  13  Lee  38  <.000.  (49%)*  14  (24%)  21 (51)  50  (76)  C h i Square n=105 n=94 s i g n i f i c a n t <.000. An a s t e r i s k i n d i c a t e s t h e c a n d i d a t e i s P r o t e s t a n t T The P r o t e s t a n t / C a t h o l i c d i c h o t o m y h a d l i t t l e at  either  of  the  Liberal  c a n d i d a t e s c o n f r o n t e d each  conventions.  In  impact  1978,  on v o t i n g  two  Catholic  o t h e r , w h i l e two P r o t e s t a n t s c o n t e s t e d  t h e 1981 c o n v e n t i o n . A t b o t h c o n v e n t i o n s , C a t h o l i c s a n d P r o t e s t a n t s supported was  not  the candidates i n v i r t u a l l y i d e n t i c a l proportions. This the  case  conventions  there  differently  than  The something  final  at was  the  Conservative  a striking  social  o f an e c o n o m i c  potential  negative.  f o r Catholics  g r o u p s t o be e x a m i n e d base.  these  t o vote  class  There  is little  reason  that  have  t o expect  no s u c h d e b a t e marks t h e q u e s t i o n  cleavage.  I t i s therefore  are those  I f c o n t r o v e r s y e x i s t s as t o t h e r o l e  of r e l i g i o n i n Maritime p o l i t i c s , a  At  Protestants.  d i v i s i o n s on t h e s e v a r i a b l e s .  of  tendency  conventions.  The  something  answer  of a  is  unambiguously  surprise  to  observe  93 voting  differences  on  the basis  o f income  and e d u c a t i o n .  (See  T a b l e s 4-6 a n d 4-7) . A t t h e 197 6 c o n v e n t i o n , L e e was a b l e t o s e c u r e majority Similarly, found  support  from  delegates  i n the highest  i n 1978, much h i g h e r l e v e l s o f s u p p o r t  among  the wealthiest  delegates  income  bracket.  f o r M i t c h e l l were  and t h o s e  with  university  degrees.  T a b l e 4-6 V o t e b y Income 1976  High  Medium  Low  Lee  54%  30%  35%  MacLean  46  70  65  n=57  n=43  C h i Square significant  n=23  <.05.  T a b l e 4-7 Vote by E d u c a t i o n 1978  University Degree  High School Graduate  Campbell  47%  59%  Mitchell  53  41  C h i Square significant  n=37  53% . 47  n=86  n=39  i s the other  variable  g e n e r a l l y used  c l a s s c l e a v a g e s . U s i n g t h e c a t e g o r i e s Stewart the l a s t n a t i o n a l conventions 1978  than School  <.05.  Occupation  the  Less High  convention—and  a 'class'  only  used  s p l i t was  at that  to  assess  i n h i s study o f again evident at  convention.  2  A  distinct  The c l a s s p o s i t i o n was d e t e r m i n e d i n a manner q u i t e s i m i l a r t o t h a t u s e d b y S t e w a r t (1988: 1 7 0 ) . P r o f e s s i o n a l s , members o f t h e c l e r g y a n d p r i v a t e b u s i n e s s p e o p l e were a l l c o n s i d e r e d u p p e r m i d d l e 2  94 pattern  i s evident with  position. conclude  (See T a b l e that a class  Mitchell's  support  4-8). S u r p r i s i n g l y , division  increasing one  must  with  class  tentatively  a f f e c t e d v o t i n g i n 1978.  T a b l e 4-8 V o t e by C l a s s 1978  Upper  Middle  Middle  Working  Campbell  52%  77%  89%  Mitchell  48  23  11  C h i Square significant The  n=46  n=96  significance  of social  class  o f an e x p l a n a t o r y dilemma. C l e a v a g e s and  their  strong  convention. these  Stewart's  presence  However,  divisions  geography.  n=9  <.05  I t i s also  be  shown  when t h e y  interesting  something  o f t h i s t y p e were n o t e x p e c t e d  i n 1978 r a i s e s  as w i l l  dissipate  variables present  questions  later,  that  t h e importance  a r e examined  t o note  about  that,  i n tandem  of with  i n contrast to  1984 f i n d i n g t h a t a more r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n a t i o n a l  Liberal  c o n v e n t i o n w o u l d have e n h a n c e d C h r e t i e n ' s c h a n c e o f v i c t o r y , a more representative  convention  Campbell's winning This  in  1978  would  likely  have  widened  margin.  examination  of the relationship  between  social  groups  and d e l e g a t e v o t i n g i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e s t r o n g e s t r e l a t i o n s h i p s were  class. Delegates who were farmers, fishermen, salespeople, c o m m e r c i a l managers, o r s e l f e m p l o y e d were t r e a t e d a s m i d d l e c l a s s w h i l e t r a d e s p e o p l e a n d l a b o u r e r s were p l a c e d i n t h e w o r k i n g c l a s s . Some o c c u p a t i o n s d e f i e d c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . I f a d e l e g a t e c l a i m e d t o b e a s t u d e n t , a h o u s e w i f e , r e t i r e d , u n e m p l o y e d o r o t h e r , t h e i r income and e d u c a t i o n l e v e l was summed. D e l e g a t e s who s c o r e d 5 o r 6 were put i n w i t h t h e upper middle c l a s s , those s c o r i n g 3 o r 4 i n t o t h e middle with t h e remainder a s s i g n e d t o t h e working c l a s s .  95 found  with  religion,  but  that  delegate  d i v i s i o n s were a l s o o f some import.  type  and  even  class  (See Table 4-9). Examining the  r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the v a r i o u s group v a r i a b l e s  should h e l p t o  i l l u m i n a t e the nature o f the s o c i a l group cleavages. Table 4-9 Cramer's V 1976 P.C.  1981 Liberal  1978 Liberal  1981 P.C.  (1)  1981 P.C. (2)  1981 P.C. (3)  Region  —*  .32  .26  .32  —  —  Urban  —  .23  --  .25  .26  .25  Ethnicity  .26  —  --  —  —  —  Religion  .23  --  .25  .26  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  .25  Age  —  .20  Gender  —  —  Delegate Type  —  .26  . 17  —  —  —  —  .23  —  --  --  --  —  —  .13  —  —  Education Income  .23  — — — — .2'/ — Class *Cramer's V i s r e p o r t e d only f o r v a r i a b l e s a s s o c i a t e d with v o t i n g at the .05 l e v e l or b e t t e r . It  i s useful  cleavage argue  identified  that  ethnic  t o begin  with  examination  at the 1976 convention. divisions  politics.  Instead,  religious  one. I t seems l i k e l y  are  terribly  the e t h n i c d i v i s i o n  delegates  were  understood  i n that context.  This  an  Catholics  and  e x p l a n a t i o n appears  It i s d i f f i c u l t to relevant  probably  t h a t the bulk their  support  basically  o f the e t h n i c  i n Island  r e p l i c a t e s the  of the n o n - B r i t i s h might  be  better  sound. The m a j o r i t y of  96 non-British  delegates  overwhelmingly from  the  were  f o r Lee.  small  indeed  No  number  such  of  Catholic  clear  and  they  did  p a t t e r n c o u l d be d i s c e r n e d  non-British  Protestants.  Moreover,  MacLean's huge s h a r e o f t h e B r i t i s h v o t e c a n be a t t r i b u t e d t o h i s b r o a d b a s e among P r o t e s t a n t s . L e e the quest  f o r v o t e s from B r i t i s h  The  'lingering  investigation left  by  the  politics decline.  and  literature  are  changing  Yet  the  of  1985:  Maritime  and  the  t h e two  otherwise.  It i s possible  that  this  arguments  as  s t r e n g t h e n them. The produced  by  particular  r e l i g i o n might groups  would  Maritime  decline observed  most  likely  the  i s most  American  voting  young;  those  recent.  Lipset,  found  "that  vote Republican than t h e i r prone  t o be  reflect  are the r e s u l t 281,282).  to  Maritime  religion  and  divisions  reflect  that  does n o t  religion  change  impression  conventions  evidence  a  further  is  suggests  contradict  might  actually  c o u l d have b e e n  i n the  prominence  are i s o l a t e d .  the  in  changing  of  Which  nature  of  politics?  politics  might  and  of  Tory  religious  The is  be d e t e c t e d when c e r t a i n g r o u p s be  First,  more  of  groups  327).  importance  from  the  competitive i n  merits  politics  evidence  to  quite  religion  Stewart,  on  was  largely  Catholics.  impact'  (Adamson  vote  In  delegates in  whose  a n a l y z i n g mid  younger C a t h o l i c s elders,  Democratic  than  involvement 20th  in  century  were more l i k e l y  to  w h i l e y o u n g e r P r o t e s t a n t s were older  ones.  These  differences  s h e e r r e b e l l i o n a g a i n s t t r a d i t i o n b u t more p r o b a b l y of the experiences of d i f f e r e n t essence,  younger  voters  who  generations"  entered  the  (1981:  political  97 system  in  likely  to  religious  a  p e r i o d when  abandon faith  religion  religious  and  practise  was  voting  less  important  patterns.  i n Canada, B i b b y  In  were  his  found  more  study  of  that  Canadians b o r n i n 1930 o r e a r l i e r a r e s l i g h t l y more l i k e l y t h a n o t h e r s t o a s s e r t p o s i t i v e b e l i e f i n God, t h e d i v i n i t y o f J e s u s . They a r e a l s o f a r more i n c l i n e d t o p r a y p r i v a t e l y , t o c l a i m t o have e x p e r i e n c e d God... And t h e s e o l d e r C a n a d i a n s a r e c o n s i d e r a b l y more l i k e l y t h a n o t h e r C a n a d i a n s t o p r o f e s s C h r i s t i a n commitment r a t h e r t h a n non-commitment (1987: .95). Given  this  decline  evidence,  of  religion  d i f f e r e n c e s among then,  might r e s t Second,  has  argued  enables  one  result  in  no  d e l e g a t e s u n d e r 30. The  level  to  might  hypothesize  on t h e b e h a v i o u r  that  him  could  of education  "Education understand  observable importance  s h o u l d be  need  broaden's  f o r norms  39) . Once  increase  found  religious  of  religion,  "that  an  man's  of  electoral  Bibby  rumoured  examined. A g a i n  i n c r e a s e s h i s c a p a c i t y t o make r a t i o n a l more,  the  of older delegates.  presumably  the  that  Lipset  outlook,  t o l e r a n c e . . . and choices"  level  of  e d u c a t i o n t e n d s t o be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h modest d e c r e a s e s i n e v e r y  age  g r o u p i n b e l i e f s and p r a c t i c e s r e g a r d i n g God, and p r a y e r " division It  (1987: 9 8 ) .  will  i s possible  when t h e s e The rejected. division  n o t be then,  the d i v i n i t y of Jesus  e v i d e n t among t h e b e t t e r that  the  religious  educated  cleavage  could  delegates. disappear  isolated.  r e g a r d i n g age  and  (See T a b l e 4 - 1 0 ) . A t t h e  1976  remained  the  Thus, one c a n h y p o t h e s i z e t h a t a r e l i g i o u s  c a t e g o r i e s are hypotheses  in  (1981:  e d u c a t i o n must convention  e v i d e n t f o r a l l age g r o u p s ,  but,  the  be  largely  religious  admittedly,  was  98 significant  only  consistent  across  significant. of  was  a l l  i n each  additive.  Catholics with  on  the  60.  3  Similarly,  educational  control MacLean  u n d e r 30 o r w i t h u n i v e r s i t y  The  over  those  group,  first  and l a s t  omnipresent, The f i n a l  significantly were  ballots  Lee  the  religious  Protestants  4  provides  some  showed  utility  The p a t t e r n o f a h i g h e r  save  the religious  f o r a l l age g r o u p s .  of limited  evidence  that the  On t h e f i r s t b a l l o t , t h e  i f not s i g n i f i c a n t  ballot  present  likewise  division.  i s that  1981 c o n v e n t i o n y i e l d e d s i m i l a r r e s u l t s . E x a m i n i n g v o t i n g  was  category.  never  He n e v e r won m a j o r i t i e s f r o m  religious d i v i s i o n i s cross generational. trend  was  o f t h e s m a l l number  o u t p o l l e d L e e among  degrees.  attributes.  the d i v i s i o n  levels-although  The i n f e r e n c e drawn, i n t h e l i g h t  respondents  division  f o r those  i n t h e over cleavage  Educational  i n mitigating  the  60  t o be  controls religious  degree o f C a t h o l i c support f o r  and P r o t e s t a n t s f o r C l a r k h e l d f o r a l l e d u c a t i o n a l groups, b u t  was s i g n i f i c a n t The  only  f o r delegates  i n t r o d u c t i o n of these  without  university  degrees.  c o n t r o l v a r i a b l e s does n o t j u s t i f y  d i s m i s s i n g t h e r e l i g i o u s c l e a v a g e as m i s l e a d i n g . W h i l e t h e c l e a v a g e was n o t s i g n i f i c a n t  i n a l l c o n t r o l cases,  t h e d i r e c t i o n was n e v e r  As argued i n the first chapter, the statistical s i g n i f i c a n c e , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n s m a l l c o n t r o l g r o u p s , w i l l be p l a y e d down f o r t h e I s l a n d c o n v e n t i o n s . 3  One s h o u l d a l s o n o t e t h a t e v e n L e e ' s m a j o r i t y f r o m t h e most a f f l u e n t d e l e g a t e s b e t r a y e d a r e l i g i o u s d i v i s i o n . Seventy p e r cent o f h i g h income C a t h o l i c s s u p p o r t e d L e e compared t o j u s t 4 6% o f h i g h income P r o t e s t a n t s . B u t f o r t h e huge s u p p o r t g i v e n L e e b y a f f l u e n t C a t h o l i c s , t h e income v a r i a b l e w o u l d n o t have b e e n s i g n i f i c a n t l y associated with vote. 4  99 violated.  Protestants  and  education  notwithstanding.  C a t h o l i c s voted  differently;  Table 4-10 I n d e x o f R e l i g i o u s E f f e c t by E d u c a t i o n and EDUCATION AGE  age  and  Age*  Less than High School  High School  University Degree  Under 30  30-60  Over 60  Lee  -26  -24  -20  -25  -20  -35  MacLean  +26  +24  +20  +25  +20  +35  Binns  -11  +3  0  -1  -11  -7  Clark  +48 ( + 42)  +22 (+28)  +3 ( + 9)  + 19 (+24)  + 16 ( + 19)  +35 ( + 34)  Driscoll  -19  -5  -7  -1  -11  -7  Lee  -18 (-42)  -20 (-28)  +3 (-9)  -24 (-24)  -1 (-19)  -32 (-34)  *The R e l i g i o u s Index i s c a l c u l a t e d by s u b t r a c t i n g t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f C a t h o l i c support from t h e percentage of Protestant support. A n e g a t i v e number i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e c a n d i d a t e d i d b e t t e r w i t h C a t h o l i c s t h a n w i t h P r o t e s t a n t s . The numbers i n b r a c k e t s a r e t h e f i g u r e s f r o m t h e f i n a l b a l l o t . The names o f P r o t e s t a n t c a n d i d a t e s are i n i t a l i c s . I f any o t h e r g r o u p were t o be immune f r o m t h e r e l i g i o u s v o t i n g pattern, will  be  one  would  recalled  significant  at  expect  that  the  i t to  while  be  the  the  ex-officio  delegate  Conservative  type  conventions,  delegates.  cleavage  there  was  was  a  not  slight  tendency f o r e x - o f f i c i o delegates to d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y favour winners.  The  religion  as  strength a control  same r e l i g i o u s The were  not  of  relation  variable.  cleavage  answer  this  as t h e  Do  55%  of  the  be  ex-officio  convention  f o r 197 6 i s no,  significant,  can  they  do  Catholic  as  t e s t e d by  delegates  It  the  using  show  the  a whole?  not.  While  ex-officio  the  results  delegates  f a v o u r e d MacLean i n v i o l a t i o n o f t h e o v e r a l l r e l i g i o u s c l e a v a g e . I n contrast/  Lee c a r r i e d  almost  Catholic delegates. S t i l l /  t w o - t h i r d s o f .the v o t e s c a s t by o t h e r  P r o t e s t a n t e x - o f f i c i o d e l e g a t e s gave Lee  the lowest  l e v e l of support  Protestant  constituency vote  The although  effect  i n 1981  the results  Protestant of t h e i r  was a more r e s p e c t a b l e 36%.  was  even  more  noteworthy.  were n o t s i g n i f i c a n t ,  ex-officio  support  he r e c e i v e d , o n l y 23%. H i s s h a r e o f t h e  delegates  on t h e f i r s t  while t h e i r c o - r e l i g i o n i s t s  showed  of  Protestant delegates  ex-officio  relation.  delegates,  delivered a slim  The that  sort  Lee  but  the  votes  well,  i n 1981, w h i l e  Clark,  their  m a r g i n . The  constituency  ex-officio  actually  Protestant  counterparts  opted  Protestant  variable  a r e more i m p o r t a n t  C a t h o l i c delegates  among  to Clark.  i n i t i a l l y a p p e a r e d . I n 1976, when C a t h o l i c s were l a r g e l y ex-officio  ballot  Clark  remaining  i n t r o d u c t i o n o f r e l i g i o n as a c o n t r o l type  The f i n a l  outpolled  majority of their  considerations of delegate  MacLean,  ballot  f a v o u r e d C l a r k . Among  was r e l a t i v e l y c o n s t a n t .  same  more,  gave L e e a s t r o n g p l u r a l i t y (48%)  C a t h o l i c s Lee's support the  Once  suggests  than  they  opposed t o  favoured  delegates  5  h i m . As  preferred  f o r L e e by a  sizable  e x - o f f i c i o d e l e g a t e s t h e n , seem r e l a t i v e l y immune  from  t h e r e l i g i o u s d i v i s i o n . T h e i r immunity makes i t s s t r e n g t h among t h e other play a the  delegates  e v e n more s t r i k i n g .  more c o n s c i o u s l y " b r o k e r a g e "  other  delegates.  These  party  Perhaps  ex-officio  (See S t e w a r t ,  delegates  1988) r o l e  p r o f e s s i o n a l s who  than  are i n a  C l a r k t o o k 41% o f t h e v o t e s c a s t by e x - o f f i c i o P r o t e s t a n t d e l e g a t e s b u t h a d t h e s u p p o r t o f 51% o f o t h e r P r o t e s t a n t s . 5  101 p o s i t i o n t o understand the importance of r e l i g i o n may act t o l e s s e n d i v i s i o n s on t h a t b a s i s and  save  the p a r t y t h e embarrassment a  p u b l i c d i v i s i o n of t h i s nature would c r e a t e .  6  Table 4-11 Vote by Delegate Type C o n t r o l l i n g f o r R e l i g i o n PROTESTANT CATHOLIC Regular  Regular  Ex-officio  Ex-officio  1976 P.C. Lee  36%  23%  64%  45%  MacLean  64  77  36  55  n=44  n=30  n=25  n=22  1981 P.C. Clark  51%  41%  23%  20%  Lee  49  59  77  80  Analysis  n=61  n=60  of t h e l a s t  social  n=2 9 group  n=30  division,  t h e 1978 c l a s s  cleavage, can be enhanced by d i s p e n s i n g with the r a t h e r s e p a r a t i o n between the geographic and s o c i a l group will  also  allow  f o r an assessment  artificial  variables. It  of the u n i v e r s a l i t y  of t h e  f r i e n d s and neighbours e f f e c t . F o r example, the s u r p r i s i n g p a t t e r n of w e l l educated and upper c l a s s support f o r M i t c h e l l c o u l d indicate  the  residence  Queens/Charlottetown Indeed,  of  many  of  those  delegates  merely i n the  area.  Mitchell's  support  among the upper  middle  class  d e l e g a t e s was predominantly based i n Queens. Seventy-seven percent  The l a c k of s i g n i f i c a n c e i n the c o n t r o l groups f o r r e l i g i o n , age, e d u c a t i o n and, f o r t h a t matter, delegate type might seem d i s t u r b i n g . However, when a l l four of these v a r i a b l e s are used i n the same m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n equation, the s i z e of the c o e f f i c i e n t f o r r e l i g i o n was h i g h e s t and i t was s i g n i f i c a n t at b e t t e r than the .05 l e v e l . 6  102 of h i s upper  middle  class  support  came f r o m  that  region.  In both  P r i n c e and K i n g s , Campbell t o o k c o m f o r t a b l e m a j o r i t i e s o f t h e upper middle  class  geographic Forty-one from  vote.  When  specificity  community  of the class  percent of Mitchell's  Charlottetown alone  Campbell.  size  Nonetheless,  even  division  upper  and o n l y  enters  middle  the picture  becomes class  the  apparent.  support  came  t h e r e was he a b l e t o o u t p o l l  i n C h a r l o t t e t o w n , Campbell  outpolled  M i t c h e l l i n a l l o t h e r c l a s s c a t e g o r i e s . M i t c h e l l ' s r e a l f r i e n d s and neighbours  Only  are obviously r e l a t i v e l y  A similar  trend  i n Queens  county  Mitchell.  Outside  university divisions  f o r the educational cleavage.  d i d university  o f Queens  educated of  was a p p a r e n t  high status delegates.  was  educated  Mitchell's  barely  197 8 a r e t h u s  40%.  quite  class  educated  The  effect  impact  consideration geographical  i t on  variables  as w i t h r e l i g i o n ,  produced poorly  by  among t h e  and e d u c a t i o n a l with  friends  effect  came  and  middle  from h i s  ( T a b l e 4-12 s u m m a r i z e s t h e  variable  i t s own  revealed  e f f e c t b u t Key d e s c r i b e d t h i s and,  favour  f o r e d u c a t i o n a l a n d age g r o u p s ) .  of the regional  of  even  support from upper  delegates i n  f r i e n d s a n d n e i g h b o u r s i n Queens c o u n t y . 'neighbourhood'  class  consistent  Much o f M i t c h e l l ' s  or university  support  The  neighbours p o l i t i c s .  delegates  a  merits.  kind of voting i n that  social  groups:  with  religion,  area  Examination  strong friends  i t i s possible  particular  i n this  this  namely  leads to of the  and n e i g h b o u r s  d i s p a r a g i n g tones c l e a v a g e c o u l d be t h e aged  and t h e  educated. As  was  the  case  friends  and  neighbours  103 support  transcends  educational  and  generational  lines.  The  1978  p a t t e r n of i n c r e a s e d support  f o r M i t c h e l l i n Queens h e l d a c r o s s a l l  educational  d i d the  c a t e g o r i e s . Nor  e l i m i n a t e the for  trend.  Indeed the  a l l d e l e g a t e s u n d e r 60.  observed  i n t r o d u c t i o n of  regional division  The  age  was  controls  significant  regional voting division could  i n e a c h o f t h e c o n t r o l g r o u p s . Of c o u r s e , t h e r e i s  important  control:  delegate  Consideration  of  neighbours  pattern  ex-officio  delegates.  ex-officio  vote  delegates  type  regional  Campbell  won  region  delegates.  r e p u d i a t i o n by  something  the  the  delegates probably  Moreover,  would  Ex-officio  likely  t o endear  delegates  of the  perceive  realized that  one  these  convention  public  not  a l l  the  him  g r a s s r o o t s was  at  of  out  that  not  among  majorities Queens.  and  was  ex-officio  were  disappearing  massive  including  friends  M i t c h e l l ' s candidacy. M i t c h e l l ' s c l a i m that the 'establishment' with the  region  effects  the  of  of touch  that  modifies  supportive  to  from  delegate  each  another  type.  with  in  be  likely  a c t i n g Premier positively.  felt  was  not  Ex-officio  t h e p a r t y ' s t o u g h p o s i t i o n i n an  almost  e v e n l y d i v i d e d l e g i s l a t u r e w o u l d make t h e s e l e c t i o n o f a  MLA  l e a d e r and  as  premier  somewhat  F r i e n d s and n e i g h b o u r s was  not  majority  quite  as  support  for  Clements  delegates  and  those  Clements.  The  majority  while  Kings'  Clements  with of  problematic.  s u p p o r t a t t h e 1981  ubiquitous.  The in  regional Kings  university these  delegates  non  but  trend that  degrees,  delegates of  Liberal  other  ages  in  1981  county's  did  voted  convention  not  for and  was young  support  Ghiz  over  educational  104 a t t a i n m e n t s were s o l i d l y b e h i n d t h e l o c a l  candidate.  C l e m e n t s was  7  a l s o u n s u c c e s s f u l i n a t t r a c t i n g t h e support of e x - o f f i c i o delegates from K i n g s . Ghiz took t w o - t h i r d s o f t h e e x - o f f i c i o v o t e from Clements' groups.  friends  I t was n o t  I t remains the  and  neighbours  support  came  from  Driscoll levels  t o examine t h e n a t u r e o f t h e r e g i o n a l c l e a v a g e a t  f o r Binns  i n Kings  i n Queens. of  significant  particular  universal.  1981 C o n s e r v a t i v e c o n v e n t i o n . T h e r e t h e t e n d e n c y  support  Kings.  These  education  and  disproportionate  tendencies  and  were  the . regional  among u n i v e r s i t y  was p l u r a l i t y  educated  support  consistent pattern  for  across a l l  was  actually  delegates.  The p a t t e r n was n o t q u i t e a s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h a g e . The b u l k o f t h e d e l e g a t e s , t h o s e between 30 a n d 60, f i t t h e p a t t e r n p e r f e c t l y and  significantly.  F o r t h e o l d e r and younger d e l e g a t e s t h e p a t t e r n  was l e s s s t r a i g h t f o r w a r d . L e e was v e r y p o p u l a r w i t h o l d e r d e l e g a t e s and  won  a  Nonetheless,  majority  of  the  over  60  vote  in  a l l counties.  B i n n s ' o n l y s u p p o r t among e l d e r l y d e l e g a t e s came  from  K i n g s w h i l e h a l f o f D r i s c o l l ' s e l d e r l y s u p p o r t e r s were f r o m Queens. Among t h e y o u n g e r d e l e g a t e s no c l e a r p a t t e r n emerges a l t h o u g h o n c e more, t h e b u l k Regardless  of Binns'  of the slight  f r i e n d s and n e i g h b o u r s  youth  support  variations,  was f r o m  Kings  i t i s apparent  delegates. that  the  e f f e c t d o e s n o t owe i t s e x i s t e n c e s o l e l y t o  older delegates. Essentially,  the regional  pattern continued to hold  across  The number o f K i n g s c o u n t y d e l e g a t e s u n d e r 30 o r w i t h u n i v e r s i t y d e g r e e s was e x t r e m e l y l o w . I n f a c t t h e y a r e n o t r e p o r t e d i n T a b l e 4-12 b e c a u s e t h e t o t a l number was u n d e r f i v e . 7  105 the  dimensions  cleavage  cut  invariably  across  support  same was  and  regional  support  ballot  than  g i v e one v o t e ultimate  nature  Clark's in  support.  each  religious  support region  was while  among C a t h o l i c s a n d  Of c o u r s e ,  of Clark's  Protestants,  support  given  such  the  findings  even i n t h e b a i l i w i c k s o f B i n n s and  supportive  type  of Clark.  considerations For Binns  Each  delegates  vote  Kings  the  Support  for  Clark  from  Binns.  strong.  competition  However,  boundaries.  Protestants  of Binn's  trend.  ex-officio  age.  ' f r i e n d s ' cut i n t o the neighbourhood e f f e c t f o r both  Delegate  remains  with  were more  his Protestant Driscoll  regional  Protestant  were i n e v i t a b l e .  and  i n Queen's was f a r s t r o n g e r  true  overwhelming  Driscoll,  education  stronger  Driscoll's the  of  the  likely  and  d i d best actually  constituency contributed  u n l i k e l y t o be  slightly  Driscoll, in  his  afforded  to this  modified  the regional  the  effect  home  region  and  them  higher  levels  of  structure  of  delegates.  The  loyalty.  decisive ex-officio  t o the l o c a l candidate  decision.  only  and s t i l l  With  the  delegates  the  first could  play a role i n the  106 Table 4-12# Index o f N e i g h b o u r h o o d E f f e c t by EDUCATION Less than High School  High School  E d u c a t i o n and AGE  University Degree  Under 30  30-60  Age* Over 60  Lee  —  +21  —  —  + 40  —  MacLean  +13  +11  +3  + 10  +4  +29  Campbell  + 19  +12*  +7  +29*  + 6*  + 18  Mitchell  —  +24  +28  +54  + 11  +21  Clements  +37*  +25*  —  —  +24*  +32  Ghiz  —  +17  +6  —  + 10  + 14  Binns  + 19*  +25*  +26  +26  +32*  0  (— )  -11* (-21*)  -10 (-9)  (--)  -2 (-5)  ( —)  +21*  +5*  + 14  -2  + 17*  +3  (--)  +45* (+36*)  +23 ( + 19)  (--)  + 18 ( + 13)  (--)  Clark Driscoll Lee  #The N e i g h b o u r h o o d Index i s calculated by subtracting each c a n d i d a t e s ' o v e r a l l share o f t h e v o t e from t h e p e r c e n t a g e of s u p p o r t g i v e n him by d e l e g a t e s f r o m h i s home a r e a . F o r C l e m e n t s , C a m p b e l l and B i n n s , K i n g s i s t h e home a r e a . F o r M i t c h e l l , G h i z and C l a r k Queen c o u n t y o v e r 10,000 i s c o n s i d e r e d home. F o r L e e i t i s Queens c o u n t y between 1000-and 10,000 w h i l e f o r MacLean and Driscoll i t i s Queens c o u n t y under 1000. A negative number i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e c a n d i d a t e d i d b e t t e r o v e r a l l t h a n he d i d w i t h h i s n e i g h b o u r s . A p o s i t i v e number i n d i c a t e s t h a t h i s s u p p o r t f r o m h i s home a r e a e x c e e d s h i s o v e r a l l s u p p o r t . The numbers i n b r a c k e t s a r e t h e f i g u r e s f r o m t h e f i n a l b a l l o t . An a s t e r i s k i n d i c a t e s t h a t the v a l u e of c h i square f o r the geographic d i v i s i o n i s s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e .05 l e v e l o r b e t t e r . I f t h e r e were f e w e r t h a n f i v e c a s e s i n a c a t e g o r y t h e c a l c u l a t i o n was n o t made. Attitudes The delegate of  final  s u p p o r t was  a possible  namely,  element  that  i n the  framework d e v e l o p e d  a t t i t u d e . Any  attitudinal attitudinal  attempt  to assess the  cleavage requires differences  for analyzing  one  major  actually  salience  assumption,  exist  at  the  107 conventions  i n question. Applying  conventions  i n d i c a t e s that  (perfect average  consensus), of  24.3  to  a consensus i n d e x  the average consensus s c o r e s ranged from  an  was  scores  therefore  from  quite  0  four 50  It  possible  t o the  to  30.8.  of  8  possible for  a t t i t u d i n a l d i f f e r e n c e s to a f f e c t v o t i n g . Examining the conventions  on a case by  case b a s i s p r o v i d e d  v i r t u a l l y no i n d i c a t i o n t h a t a t t i t u d i n a l d i v i s i o n s s t r u c t u r e d the vote  i n any  variables voting. Maritime  fundamental  (out of  way.  seventeen)  At  the  convention,  were s i g n i f i c a n t l y  These v a r i a b l e s attempted Union and  197 6  t o measure  opinions  the  who  vote  of  delegates  was felt  regarding  out  with the g r a s s r o o t s . Lee r e c e i v e d m a j o r i t y support from union  of  touch  delegates  a good i d e a and v i r t u a l l y the  party  two  a s s o c i a t e d with  whether the p a r t y h i e r a r c h y was  a g r e e i n g t h a t Maritime  only  h i e r a r c h y was  split out  of  touch. In differed  1978  delegates  significantly  on  voting for Mitchell only  two  and  attitudinal  Campbell questions.  s p l i t s o c c u r r e d on i s s u e s which were q u i t e time s p e c i f i c .  also The  Delegates  were asked whether money spent on the Queen E l i z a b e t h H o s p i t a l was a needless have  expense and  legislative  whether i t was  experience.  necessary  Delegates  f o r a l e a d e r to  holding  the  minority  The consensus index i s taken from Blake, C a r t y and E r i c k s o n " S o c i a l C r e d i t Leadership S e l e c t i o n i n B.C." (1988: 519-520). B a s i c a l l y , a score i s a r r i v e d at by s u b t r a c t i n g from the percentage who agree with a p a r t i c u l a r statement the a b s o l u t e v a l u e of 50. I f 100% or 0% agree with the statement, the score i s 5 0 - p e r f e c t consensus. I f 50% agree, the score i s 0 i n d i c a t i n g an evenly d i v i d e d o p i n i o n s p l i t or no consensus. The h i g h e r the score the c l o s e r o p i n i o n s are t o p e r f e c t consensus. 8  108 position  that  the  overwhelmingly Charlottetown  hospital  f o r Campbell. and f o r t h a t  spending Of course  reason  alone  was the  needless hospital  Charlottetown  voted was i n  delegates  might favour such spending. These d e l e g a t e s , M i t c h e l l ' s f r i e n d s and neighbours, declined  were h i s staunchest s u p p o r t e r s anyway. Most d e l e g a t e s  t o venture  legislative felt  such  while  non-experienced The  few  voted  almost  disagreement,  needed  d e l e g a t e s who  exclusively f o r supported  the  Mitchell.  1981 L i b e r a l  convention  on t h r e e  unexpected.  candidate,  in  a leader  who d i d respond,  was necessary  the  and a t t i t u d e  somewhat  as t o whether  e x p e r i e n c e . Of those  experience  Campbell  vote  an o p i n i o n  showed an a s s o c i a t i o n  issues.  Clements,  The r e l a t i o n s  the older  d i dproportionately better  and more  between  evident are traditional  among d e l e g a t e s who  felt  women had an inadequate v o i c e i n p a r t y matters, who b e l i e v e d t h a t t o u r i s m was more important t o PEI than farming and f i s h i n g , o r who did  not agree t h a t governments spend t o o much on s o c i a l w e l f a r e .  All  o f these  positions  were  h e l d by l e s s  than  a third  o f the  d e l e g a t e s and, i n t h e case o f t h e t o u r i s m q u e s t i o n a m i n o r i t y of j u s t 6%. Examination o f the 1981 t h r e e b a l l o t C o n s e r v a t i v e convention reveals final  even l e s s  ballot  attitudinal  i n t h e way o f an a t t i t u d i n a l  had no s i g n i f i c a n t variable  attitudinal  division.  divisions!  The  The only  a s s o c i a t e d with v o t i n g on t h e two e a r l i e r  b a l l o t s q u e s t i o n e d whether women had an adequate v o i c e i n t h e  109  T a b l e 4-13 P e r c e n t i n Agreement a n d C o n s e n s u s 1976 1 978 C.I . C.I . %agree %agree 1/More power f o r t h e 0 1 5 50 65 provinces + 2/Special recognition 19 15 35 31 f o r Quebec 3/Favour u n r e s t r i c t e d 20 30 40 10 right to s t r i k e 4/Farmers have t o o much 64 78 28 14 p o l i t i c a l say 5/Too much s p e n t on 36 73 23 social welfare 86 6/Right t o 89 39 86 36 foreigh capital 7/Government must h e l p 91 41 helpless — — 8/Pay w e l f a r e o n l y t o 70 20 99 49 needy 9/Government s h o u l d i n t e r f e r e less with 16 34 83 23 business 10/Party h i e r a r c h y out 12 83 33 of t o u c h * 11/More f e d e r a l money 95 93 43 45 for poor p r o v i n c e s 12/Wealthy have t o o much 82 . 32 p o l i t i c a l say — — 13/Favor M a r i t i m e u n i o n 34 * 1 6 — — 1 4 / C e n t r a l Canada has t o o — 87 37 much p o l i t i c a l s a y — 15/Too much s p e n t on Q.E. 6G* 10 hospital — — 1 6 / T o u r i s m more i m p o r t a n t 22* 28 than f a r m i n g o r f i s h i n g — — 17/The p o o r have t o o much 1 2 38 p o l i t i c a l say — — 18/More f e d e r a l money f o r 76 26 a l l provinces — — Policy  Consensus  6 2  Index  1981 P.C. 1981 L i b e r a l %agree %agree C.I C.I . l/More power f o r t h e 83 provinces + 2/Special recognition 35 f o r Quebec 3/Support government n u c l e a r power s t a n d 83 4 / C o n v e n t i o n b e s t way to choose l e a d e r s 94 5/Too much s p e n t on 71 social welfare 6/Right t o 87 foreigh capital 7/Government must h e l p 97 helpless 8/Pay w e l f a r e o n l y t o 99 needy 9/Government s h o u l d take over M a r i t i m e 51 Electric 10/Women h a v e a d e q u a t e 78 voice in party 11/More f e d e r a l money for poor p r o v i n c e s 96 1 2 / A l l p a r t y members should e l e c t leader 40 13/Favor M a r i t i m e union 50 1 4 / C a v e n d i s h Farms s h o u l d 9 be a l l o w e d more l a n d 1 5 / S u p p o r t g o v e r m e n t on c o n s t i t u t i o n a l stand 92 1 6 / T o u r i s m more i m p o r t a n t than f a r m i n g or f i s h i n g 5 1 7 / C o n f e d e r a t i o n good t h i n g for Island 80 +Not a l l a t t i t u d i n a l q u e s t i o n s * S i g n i f i c a n t l y a s s o c i a t e d with  33  33  1 7  15  24  26  33  1 3  37  44  89  39  21  68 *  18  37  64  1 4  47  93  43  49  97  47  1  43  7  28  67 *  1 7  46  88  38  1 0 0  31 34  19 1 6  41  1 3  37  42  60  10  45  6*  90 30 are reported. vote.  44 40  Ill  party.  Only  Among t h i s  a minority of the delegates  minority the likelihood  felt  this  was t h e c a s e .  o f a L e e v o t e was much  reduced.  D r i s c o l l won a p l u r a l i t y o f s u p p o r t f r o m t h e s e ' m i n o r i t y ' d e l e g a t e s and  i t i s instructive  that  this  when D r i s c o l l was removed f r o m Obviously attitudes  then,  this  and d e l e g a t e  Basically,  variable  t o be  significant  the b a l l o t .  search  voting  an a t t i t u d i n a l  ceased  f o r an  yielded  cleavage  association  mainly  negative  d i d not e x i s t  results.  or at least the  a t t i t u d i n a l q u e s t i o n s a s k e d d i d n o t t a p i n t o any e x i s t i n g On  only  nine  significant  of  association  opinions  on  hospital  repairs,  adequacy  o f women's  tourism do  102  the  Maritime  attitudinal  with  union,  voting.  grassroots  t h e importance voice  questions  These  isolation,  matters,  cleavage.  was  there  questions,  of l e g i s l a t i v e  i n party  between  measuring  the cost  important  at  substantial evidence  the conclusion that any  of  the  disagreement  to  suggest  conventions.  among  that  an  the  importance  attitudinal While  the delegates,  such  disagreements  of  experience, the  a n d w h e t h e r g o v e r n m e n t s s p e n d t o o much on s o c i a l  not j u s t i f y  a  of  welfare,  cleavage  was  there  was  often  there  is  little  impact,  in  any  s i g n i f i c a n t way, w i t h t h e i r v o t i n g d e c i s i o n s . The c h o i c e i s c l e a r l y one  o f men n o t m e a s u r e s .  Discussion There and by  i s ample e v i d e n c e t o s u p p o r t t h e e x i s t e n c e o f a f r i e n d s  n e i g h b o u r s v o t i n g p a t t e r n . Most c a n d i d a t e s were b a c k e d delegates  from  their  home a r e a .  Other  divisions  loyally  however,  were  112 also  notable. P a r t i c u l a r l y  notable  was a r e l i g i o u s  P r o t e s t a n t and C a t h o l i c d e l e g a t e s almost religionist. striking. larger  Divisions  Ex-officio  measure  on t h e b a s i s delegates  than  of delegate  type  supported  delegates,  a  The argument  regional that  neighbours 'native'  in  of their  tendency  own  'brass  highest  same  region.  support  friends  candidates their  home  support for  and  Leaving  region.  support  f o r the  by  a  friends  reflect  In keeping  with  a pattern of the findings to  when  the opportunity  cleavage  support  to  do  so  i n 1976, o r on t h e f i n a l  convention,  does  n o t weaken  f o r L e e a n d MacLean i n 197 6 a n d L e e friends  and n e i g h b o u r s :  their  s i m p l y came f r o m d i f f e r e n t p a r t s o f this  aside,  in  every  case  However,  received their Multiple  only  highest  five  level  regression analysis  of  where  candidates.  (See T a b l e  4-14).  the ten  o f support  from  indicates  that  f r o m t h e i r home r e g i o n was t h e s t r o n g e s t f a c t o r  a l l of these  and  r e g i o n s f a c e d o f f , e a c h d i d b e t t e r among  neighbours.  actually  divisions  f o r delegates  their  support  c a n d i d a t e s from d i f f e r e n t  These  1979: 1 1 9 ) .  among  f r i e n d s and neighbours  his  strong  a r e marked  o f t h e 1981 C o n s e r v a t i v e  was  in  versus the  exists  region  and Leduc,  argument. Indeed,  the  conventions  absence o f a r e g i o n a l  ballots  1981  provide  son' support.  "a s t r o n g  (Krause  The  this  Maritime  or 'favorite  candidates  two  divisions  also  case.  p a t t e r n o f v o t i n g . The c o n v e n t i o n s  nationally:  exists"  applicable  were  t h e winner  g r a s s ' c l e a v a g e as t h i s has been s t y l e d e l s e w h e r e . were e v i d e n t i n e v e r y  with  invariably favouring a co-  always  the selected  cleavage  i n support  MacLean, strongest  Campbell,  support  Interestingly,  Ghiz,  Clark  from a r e g i o n which d i d not  none  of the candidates  home' went on t o v i c t o r y . O n l y C l a r k win  a n d he, a t l e a s t ,  this  tends  to  and Lee  came s e c o n d  support  one  of  best  result  i n a f o u r man  field.  hypotheses  of  candidates  ( T a t a l o v i c h , 1975: 8 0 9 ) . S u c h c a n d i d a t e s  were c o m p l e t e l y the  'local  Queens  concerted  Charlottetown  the friends  proportions.  t h e i r highest  when,  stronger  among  was  separated  and n e i g h b o u r s  The  five  l e v e l o f support  candidates  city,  but not from t h e r e g i o n .  candidacies  was made t o s a v e  from  effect  candidates  assumed  who  G h i z and Lee, had t h e i r s t r o n g e s t  f o r MacLean  and  the rest  d i d not  greatly  neighbours e f f e c t . the  national  L i b e r a l convention run  i n the  sons'"  same  (1976:  almost receive  support  Similarly, friends  Driscoll  i n the  rural  and  from t h e  neighbours  parts  of  enhances  appreciation  of  the  March,  found t h a t : province,  8). This  also  we  i n h i s study  friends  o f t h e 1968  seems  dealing t o be  with  true  and  found  national  "when s e v e r a l o r more ' n a t i v e are  Queens  Isolating  Such i n t r a r e g i o n a l d i v i s i o n has a l s o been level.  of  Charlottetown  c o u n t y was s t r e n g t h e n e d by t h e r e m o v a l o f C h a r l o t t e t o w n .  at  weaker  f r o m t h e i r home r e g i o n were a l l f r o m  area  Charlottetown  and  could f i t into  Queens c o u n t y . D i v i d i n g up Queens c o u n t y r e v e a l s t h a t  support  friends  apparently, effort  Actually,  from h u m i l i a t i o n .  when  county  universal  o f 1983  r e g i o n a l and a  boys'  However,  pattern  i t is  was ' a t  group f a i l e d t o  voting,  Crombie/Wilson  that  whose  i n the other  the  their  c o n t a i n t h e i r home.  neighbours  the  namely  a l l received  sons'  'regional/urban  within  a  province.  114 Friends  and  neighbours  Severe for by  regional the term  support  i s not  based.  r e g i o n a l t e n s i o n s are not needed t o c r e a t e a c l i m a t e voting indicating that  'friends  see e n d u r i n g  simply county  and  regional  such  neighbours'.  factions  support  For  i s well  captured  i n s t a n c e , one  at Island conventions.  does  I t makes  sense t o t h i n k o f a Kings county b l o c or a C h a r l o t t e t o w n b l o c . blocs  emerged  b a l l o t . While politics, voting  only  when  some may  a  a p p e a r t o be  from  the  area  importance  contention.  artificially  present i n both p a r t i e s ,  of f r i e n d s  Moreover,  c r e a t e d by  any  this  education.  If  for  u n i v e r s i t y educated  and  particular  i t was  weaker  s u p p o r t was,  spectrum  Island conventions  i n the importance important  raises  voting  at  q u e s t i o n s about  or  true.  division decline  of r e l i g i o n i n the Maritimes. I f r e l i g i o n  remains  elite  c o u l d p o i n t out  either  age  however, m i t i g a t e d by t h e  group l i k e  d e l e g a t e s , i t seems  r e a s o n a b l e t o assume t h a t i t i s a l s o i m p o r t a n t e l s e w h e r e . Liberals  was  t h e rumoured  among a r e l a t i v e l y  Island  of  younger  r e l i g i o u s c l e a v a g e . The p r e s e n c e o f t h i s s o r t o f r e l i g i o u s at  It  not  regional  d e l e g a t e s , f o r M i t c h e l l t h e r e v e r s e was  F r i e n d s and n e i g h b o u r s  the  Island  does  group.  among  Such  on  i n and o u t o f power. As w e l l , t h e  Clements  no  neighbours  cleavage  v o t i n g p a t t e r n p e r s i s t e d across v i r t u a l l y the f u l l and  was  question the relevance of regions to  t h e e x i s t e n c e and  i s beyond  candidate  not  of  their  that  religion  conventions.  A  was  not  partisan  Of  course  related  to  division  is  s u p e r f i c i a l l y v i s i b l e : the r e l i g i o u s cleavage i s c l e a r l y present at t h e C o n s e r v a t i v e c o n v e n t i o n s , b u t makes no i m p r i n t a t e i t h e r o f t h e Liberal  gatherings.  115 No h i s t o r i c a l r e a s o n  o r contemporary r a t i o n a l e suggests  that  r e l i g i o u s d i v i s i o n s are p e c u l i a r to the Conservative party or that the  Liberals  remain  Conservatives and  righteously free  have t r a d i t i o n a l l y  o f such  attracted  While the  more C a t h o l i c  p r o d u c e d a number o f C a t h o l i c l e a d e r s , t h e L i b e r a l s  played  the t i c k e t  balancing  game.  A  more p l a u s i b l e  f o r t h e absence o f r e l i g i o u s d i v i s i o n s a t in  conflict.  the  nature  candidates  of  the  competition  at the L i b e r a l  background.  At  9  both  those  shared  Conservative  have a l s o  explanation  L i b e r a l conventions  at  conventions  support  lies  gatherings:  t h e same  conventions,  the  religious  however,  a  P r o t e s t a n t f a c e d a C a t h o l i c o r i n 1981, t h r e e C a t h o l i c c o m p e t i t o r s . One  could  reasonably  conclude  that  while  Protestant  and C a t h o l i c  d e l e g a t e s may n o t h a v e d i f f e r e n t c a n d i d a t e o r p o l i c y p r e f e r e n c e s as such,  they  faith,  a r e more  likely  a  candidate  of t h e i r  own  i f t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t o so e x i s t s . A p a t t e r n o f s u p p o r t  religious A  'friends' fear  population  that  then the  has caused  importance o f r e l i g i o n might  t o support  well  be  said  was i n e v i d e n c e . same  tendency  Island parties  exists  t o take  in  the  evasive  i s a t t e s t e d t o by M a c K i n n o n who  that  from  t h e I s l a n d has  four  general  action.  The  argues " i t  political  parties:  Liberal,  C o n s e r v a t i v e , C a t h o l i c a n d P r o t e s t a n t " (1978: 2 3 7 ) . Dyck  suggests  that  candidates.  the  parties  " P a r t i e s take  deal such  with pains  this  by  balancing  to balance  their  their tickets  I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o note t h a t the f i r s t C a t h o l i c L i b e r a l t o s e r v e as P r e m i e r ( B e n n e t t C a m p b e l l ) was p u t i n t o o f f i c e by t h e c a u c u s p r i o r t o a c o n v e n t i o n a n d a t t h e s u b s e q u e n t c o n v e n t i o n was c h a l l e n g e d o n l y by a n o t h e r C a t h o l i c . 9  116 between P r o t e s t a n t s is  a n d Roman C a t h o l i c s t h a t r e l i g i o u s a f f i l i a t i o n  n o t a sound p r e d i c t o r o f p a r t y The  parties  evidence  preferences"  from t h e I s l a n d  conventions  a r e wise t o take such p r e c a u t i o n s .  (1986: 95) . suggests  The l a c k o f a b r o a d e r  r e l i g i o u s v o t i n g c l e a v a g e may owe t o s u c h b a l a n c i n g . evidence also loyalty  or  religious  suggests that  such v o t i n g  identification,  policy  rather  differences.  whom no g e o g r a p h i c  friends  R e l i g i o n was t h e s t r o n g e s t from P r o t e s t a n t s  and  o f group  a manifestation  of overt  was t h e o n l y  neighbours  factor i n  The c o n v e n t i o n  i s an e x p r e s s i o n  than  Clark  that the  support  candidate f o r was  evident.  support f o r him. H i s support  p a r t l y , b u t o n l y p a r t l y , c u t i n t o t h e f r i e n d s and  n e i g h b o u r s s u p p o r t f o r b o t h Binns and D r i s c o l l . Perhaps s u p p o r t f o r C l a r k s h o u l d be u n d e r s t o o d a s t h a t o f h i s r e l i g i o u s ' f r i e n d s . ' H i s answer t o t h e b i b l i c a l  question  'who i s my n e i g h b o u r '  w e l l have b e e n 'my f e l l o w P r o t e s t a n t s ' . Observers was  should  not created  matter,  class  anything, quite  also  remember t h a t  additive.  The  group.  1 1  the r e l i g i o u s cleavage or, f o r that  The r e l i g i o u s c l e a v a g e  'lingering  very  1 0  b y a p a r t i c u l a r age, e d u c a t i o n a l  o r income  might  impact'  of religion  was, i f appears  substantial. It  i s f a s c i n a t i n g t o note that  the r e l i g i o u s d i v i s i o n d i d  The f a c t t h a t C l a r k was a P r o t e s t a n t m i n i s t e r m i g h t h a v e made C a t h o l i c d e l e g a t e s p a r t i c u l a r l y r e l u c t a n t t o support him. C l a r k was t h e f i r s t clergyman ever e l e c t e d t o t h e p r o v i n c i a l l e g i s l a t u r e . A c t u a l l y , another clergyman entered t h e l e g i s l a t u r e a t t h e same t i m e a s C l a r k . 1 0  The r e l i g i o u s v o t i n g income a n d c l a s s l e v e l s . 1 1  division  was  consistent  across  all  117 not  affect  and  1976  ex-officio ex-officio  religious  voting  counterparts. political  It  delegates to the delegates  pattern may  be  realities  were  than  that  which  same d e g r e e .  more were  such  create  deliberately  division.  a l s o be t r u e t h a t w i t h o u t  delegate was  at  type the  ex-officio voting  cleavage  two  sought  to  did  conventions. not  p a t t e r n d i s p l a y e d by  constituency  their  poll in  to  delegates  follow the  the  selected  light  of  balance  moderate  1981  violate  the  tickets  the  religious  a religious division  w o u l d h a v e b e e n e v e n more s t r i k i n g ,  Liberal  delegates  to  need  provincially, I t may  likely  delegates, a  In both  At the  those  body  were p r o v i d i n g t h e  as i t  conventions  friends  delegate  the  as  and a  the  neighbours whole.  'home town'  When  candidates  C l e m e n t s and M i t c h e l l  with m a j o r i t y support, e x - o f f i c i o  delegates  were  Ghiz  the  largely  Conservative pattern  ballots  for  convention  of f r i e n d s  Even t h i s  1983  behind  may  and  did  Campbell.  the  neighbours  h a v e b e e n due  would enable  and  Only  ex-officio support  to their  at  delegates  display  for Driscoll  realization  them t o move t o L e e .  The  1981  and  that  Binns.  subsequent  Crombie  example  when O n t a r i o A t t o r n e y G e n e r a l Roy M c M u r t r y a s k e d f o r "one David"  Perlin,  may  1983:  There  be  illuminating  in this  regard  a  of  vote  (Martin, Gregg  and  145,146).  is little  doubt  that  a delegate  type  voting  cleavage  e x i s t e d , o r t h a t t h e e x - o f f i c i o d e l e g a t e s were s u c c e s s f u l i n h a v i n g their  preferred  o b s e r v e r s may national  candidates  elected.  In  light  share the p e r s p e c t i v e of Mintz  conventions,  concluded  that  "the  who,  of  this,  some  i n h i s study  substantial  number  of of  118 'ex-officio' should  be  delegates...needs  stressed,  conventions  was  t o be  however,  o n l y one o f  that  reconsidered"  this  convention  at  the  Island  degree.  T h e r e was n o t an example s i m i l a r Liberal  division  (1983:20). I t  where  t o t h a t o f t h e 1970 Quebec  ex-officio  delegates,  through  o v e r w h e l m i n g g r o u p s o l i d a r i t y , were a b l e t o o v e r t u r n t h e p r e f e r e n c e of was  most  constituency delegates  not the case  f o r another  candidate.  at the Island conventions,  While  the actual  this  impact  e x - o f f i c i o d e l e g a t e s on t h e o t h e r d e l e g a t e s r e m a i n s u n a s s e s s e d possibly  unassessable.  delegates bandwagon  creates  an  effect.  At  It  c o u l d be t h a t  aura  of  the very  support  invincibility least,  when  from  and  ex-officio  which  most  of  incites  prominent  a  party  members a r e b e h i n d one c a n d i d a t e o t h e r p a r t y members a r e l i k e l y t o think very hard before One  conclusion  possibility support  of  a  s u p p o r t i n g someone is  clear;  supported the winning  but  effect  immune f r o m  marked t h e c o n v e n t i o n s somewhat d i f f e r e n t really  what  modifies the  moves  them.  to  the  evidence  to  delegates  c a n d i d a t e and o t h e r c l e a v a g e s had s u c h d e l e g a t e s were  and f r i e n d s  Geographic Their  s t r e n g t h o f such  This examination  solid  and n e i g h b o u r s  i n g e n e r a l . They seem t o be  factors.  point  on t h e I s l a n d , no c a n d i d a t e n o t  support:  the r e l i g i o u s  have  who  a b l e t o w i n . The e x - o f f i c i o  invariably  on t h i s  split  least,  f a v o u r e d by t h e ' b r a s s ' was  little  observers  'brass/grass'  them. A t t h e v e r y  else.  or r e l i g i o u s  behaviour  actually  relatively voting that  i n f l u e n c e d by l o y a l t y i s not masks  or  tendencies.  o f l e a d e r s h i p c o n v e n t i o n s on P E I makes  clear  119  that v o t i n g cleavages e x i s t e d at I s l a n d conventions. divisions dominant based to  support  the  i n Maritime  contention politics  on f r i e n d s and n e i g h b o u r s  begin  to  formulate  the  with  argument  r e l a t e s to geographic  ascriptive  identification.  in this  kind  the  most  that  proximity,  G e o g r a p h y and  o f common  traditional  or r e l i g i o n .  neighbours  linked  that  framework.  Moreover, t h e ties  important Indeed in  divisions  i t i s possible  the  Maritimes  f r i e n d s may  religion  remain  may  i f  carry  an  possibly  be  120 T a b l e 4-14 M u l t i p l e R e g r e s s i o n : S o c i a l and G e o g r a p h i c 12  MacLean Elite Queens  Campbell  Ghiz  .19  .30*  .14  -.11  -.33*  Binns  Clark  .04  -.10  .01  -.10  —  -.04  .26*  British  .26  —  -.02  -.01  .07  Prot.  .14  .04  -.14  -.03  .31*  -.16  College .31*  Driscoll  .15  .02  Factors Lee  Lee (3)  .07  .02  -.22*  -.10  .03  .05  .01  -.05  -.22*  -.31*  .05  -.23  -.15  .20*  Youth  -.28  -.14  .01  -.06  —  -.02  .08  -.01  Urban  -.06  -.09  .15  -.17  -.02  -.09  .28  .27  .05  .08  -.12  -.08  .04  .02  -.12  .05  .05  .07  .26*  -.07  -.06  -.12  Male Rich  .27* Kings  —  -.11  —  .40* Constant r sq.  .31  .83  .93  .07  .30  .07  .56  .77  .24  .26  .17  .16  .13  .15  .12  .13  The v a r i a b l e s were e i t h e r n o m i n a l o r o r d i n a l , t h e r e f o r e dummy v a r i a b l e s were c o n s t r u c t e d . The d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e was a l w a y s v o t e . A s c o r e o f one was g i v e n i f a v o t e was f o r t h e c a n d i d a t e named, 0 o t h e r w i s e . Some o f t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s a r e s e l f e x p l a n a t o r y o f t h e r e s t , r i c h r e f e r s t o h i g h income, P r o t . r e f e r s t o P r o t e s t a n t , u r b a n r e f e r s t o a community o f o v e r 10,000, e l i t e r e f e r s t o e x - o f f i c i o d e l e g a t e a n d y o u t h means u n d e r 30. A g a i n a s c o r e o f one was g i v e n i f t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c named was p o s s e s s e d , 0 o t h e r w i s e . Queens a n d K i n g s r e f e r t o t h e c o u n t i e s , i f a d e l e g a t e was f r o m t h e c o u n t y named a s c o r e o f one was g i v e n , o t h e r w i s e 0. The e x c e p t i o n was 197 6 when Queens r e f e r r e d t o c o m m u n i t i e s i n Queens county o f between 1000 and 10,000. The regression c o e f f i c i e n t s are unstandardized a n d o n l y t h o s e w i t h an * a r e s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e .05 l e v e l . 1 2  121  Chapter 5 Nova S c o t i a Conventions: D i v i s i o n s i n t h e 'Modern' Maritimes  Intra Scotia  party  will  divisions  at leadership  conventions  i n Nova  be t h e focus o f t h i s chapter and w i l l be probed by  s t u d y i n g the most r e c e n t C o n s e r v a t i v e c o n v e n t i o n (1971) and t h e two last Nova  Liberal Scotian  neighbours  conventions  (1980,1986).  conventions  must  I t w i l l become c l e a r  be understood  framework i n which t h e most  in a  important  that  f r i e n d s and  i n t e r n a l party  d i v i s i o n s a r e based on geography and r e l i g i o n .  Introduction The p a r t y p o l i t i c s o f Nova S c o t i a resemble those o f the other Maritime p r o v i n c e s . L i k e New Brunswick  and P r i n c e Edward  Nova S c o t i a i s s a i d t o be l e a d e r dominated,  Island,  t o have a t r a d i t i o n a l  p o l i t i c a l c u l t u r e , pragmatic p a r t i e s competing s o l e l y f o r power, no politically voting,  salient  class  cleavages,  a  religious  division in  and a t h i r d p a r t y wasteland.  A c t u a l l y , t h e nature o f the r e l i g i o u s d i v i s i o n resembles Brunswick Liberals  more than benefit  P r i n c e Edward  from  Island.  greater Catholic  Chandler's f i g u r e s i n d i c a t e  As i n New support.  New  Brunswick,  Chandler and  that a higher p r o p o r t i o n of Catholics  p r e f e r t h e L i b e r a l s while Aucoin and Camp have both p o i n t e d out the historical Chandler,  preference  of C a t h o l i c s  1979: 47; Aucoin,  for Liberals  (Chandler and  1972: 26; Camp, 1979: 112). Indeed,  122 s i n c e 1930,  the L i b e r a l p a r t y has e x p l i c i t l y attempted t o a l t e r n a t e  i t s l e a d e r s h i p between C a t h o l i c s and 5) . In c o n t r a s t , the C a t h o l i c and he was the p a r t y  itself.  Conservatives  Protestants have only  chosen by the Lieutenant  (Adamson,  1982:  once been l e d by  a  Governor r a t h e r than  1  Despite the obvious s i m i l a r i t i e s Nova S c o t i a n p o l i t i c s d i f f e r somewhat from p o l i t i c s subject  i n the  rest  of the  of l e a d e r s h i p t h a t p a r t i c u l a r l y  Maritimes.  I t i s the  s e t s the p r o v i n c e  apart.  Leaders i n the other p r o v i n c e s have not been c r e d i t e d with the same degree of dominance. Adamson and Stewart c l a i m t h a t "the p o s i t i o n of the p a r t y l e a d e r . . . i s more pronounced i n A t l a n t i c Canada than i s the  case  evidence  in  the  rest  of  the  country"  (1985:  328) . Yet  their  i s drawn l a r g e l y from Nova S c o t i a . Aucoin p o i n t e d out t h a t  i n Nova S c o t i a "the p a r t y l e a d e r tends to p e r s o n i f y the p a r t y f o r the  electorate"  (1972:27).  This  leader  dominance  has  been  a t t r i b u t e d by Beck to a l a c k of i d e o l o g i c a l d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n which has f o r c e d the v o t e r " a l l the more to emphasize the l e a d e r " 200) .  Indeed,  Camp  in  Gentlemen,  Players  and  (1978:  Politicians  s u c c i n c t l y confirmed t h i s and s t r e s s e d the nature of the dominance. "In Nova S c o t i a p o l i t i c i a n s are e i t h e r looked up t o or looked down upon...The q u a l i t y of the  c h i e f t a i n matters a good d e a l t o Nova  S c o t i a n s . . . In Nova S c o t i a people wanted to be c o u l d look up t o , who  l e d by  a man  they  had about him the mystique and the manner of  The one C a t h o l i c Conservative premier was John Thompson who went on t o become the only post c o n f e d e r a t i o n premier to serve as Prime M i n i s t e r . Thompson served as premier f o r only 54 days (Beck, 1988: 166) . 1  123 the  chieftain"  (1979: 213) . No such d e s c r i p t i o n s or assessments  have been made o f l e a d e r s h i p i n New Brunswick or the I s l a n d . The  l e a d e r dominance can a l s o be seen i n t h e l o n g tenure o f  s u c c e s s f u l l e a d e r s such as F i e l d i n g Macdonald (19 y e a r s ) , S t a n f i e l d  (12 years) , Murray  (19 years) and Buchanan (19 y e a r s ) .  Turnovers i n government u s u a l l y r e s u l t , previously power  e l e c t e d premier,  within  occasioned  the governing  defeats  but from party.  century  not from the d e f e a t unsuccessful  Such  of a  transfers of  unsuccessful  transfers  i n 1925, 1933, 1956 and 1970. Indeed, t h e r e i s  only one example o f a p r e v i o u s l y e l e c t e d this  (27 y e a r s ) ,  premier b e i n g d e f e a t e d i n  (Regan i n 1978) . There i s no doubt t h a t  incumbent  premiers a r e d i f f i c u l t t o d e f e a t , a tendency showing not only the dominant r o l e o f the l e a d e r , but a l s o the e s s e n t i a l c o n s e r v a t i s m o f the v o t e r s . Prior  t o 1956 Nova  S c o t i a was d e s c r i b e d ,  L i b e r a l dominated p r o v i n c e but subsequently  correctly,  as a  t h e p o l i t i c a l landscape  changed d r a m a t i c a l l y . The C o n s e r v a t i v e s have s i n c e won e i g h t o f t e n e l e c t i o n s and o u t p o l l e d every  other p a r t y on nine o c c a s i o n s .  Only  i n O n t a r i o has one p a r t y been as dominant d u r i n g the same p e r i o d . T h i s i s not t o say t h a t the L i b e r a l s are i n s i g n i f i c a n t , they  have  had some  Scotian p o l i t i c s  expectation  o f success.  generally  Nonetheless,  Nova  i s marked by the dominance o f the C o n s e r v a t i v e  p a r t y , a dominance unmatched i n the r e s t o f t h e Maritimes. Nova relative outside  Scotia's strength  the  d i s t i n c t i v e n e s s can a l s o of a t h i r d  Maritimes,  Nova  party.  While  S c o t i a may  be  seen  i n the  for_ observers  appear  from  inhospitable to  124 third  parties, in  Maritime terms i t i s a v i r t u a l  paradise.  MLAs were s i t t i n g i n the Nova S c o t i a n l e g i s l a t u r e 43 years the i n i t i a l NDP v i c t o r y i n New Brunswick while yet t o come. Since 1974 the NDP has garnered i n each p r o v i n c i a l e l e c t i o n since  and has  success  CCF  before  on PEI has  about 15% o f the vote  s u c c e s s f u l l y e l e c t e d members  1970. Again a p a t t e r n of 'success'  unmatched i n e i t h e r New  Brunswick or P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d .  Nova  P a r t o f t h e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r the t h i r d p a r t y success  rests i n  Scotia's  and the  division  into  two  regions:  Cape  Breton  Mainland. Cape Breton  i s l a n d , or r a t h e r Cape Breton  most  and u n i o n i z e d  industrialized  1981, i t was t h i s Breton  i n the p r o v i n c e  and p r i o r t o  county t h a t e l e c t e d a l l the CCF/NDP MLAs. Cape  has a d i s t i n c t  differently.  county, i s the  identity  For instance,  and even tends  t o vote  i n 1978 when the Buchanan T o r i e s were  f i r s t e l e c t e d they d i d not win any of Cape Breton's e l e v e n Similarly,  in  their  1988  p e c u l i a r i t y of Cape Breton a leader  cannot  contest  somewhat  victory  they  won  only  ridings. one.  The  can a l s o be seen i n t h e p e r c e p t i o n t h a t  an i s l a n d  constituency  and expect  t o be  v i c t o r i o u s p r o v i n c e wide (Kavanagh, 1988: 63). Finally, its  relative  Nova S c o t i a d i f f e r s  from New  Brunswick and PEI i n  'modernity.' As Bellamy e x p l a i n s  The s o c i e t i e s of Nova S c o t i a , New Brunswick and PEI possess v a r y i n g r a t e s of economic, s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l development. Nova S c o t i a i s probably the most advanced i n these r e s p e c t s with a l a r g e urban c e n t r e , H a l i f a x , and a h i g h e r r a t e of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n than other p a r t s o f the r e g i o n . In s o c i a l terms, Nova S c o t i a emulates mass s o c i e t i e s elsewhere i n North America (1976: 11). In  keeping  with  the modernity  thrust,  Adamson  has  argued  that  125 religion  i s l e s s important  the p r o v i n c e seen  i n Nova S c o t i a and  i t i s obvious t h a t  i s l e s s r u r a l than i t s neighbours. I t remains t o  whether  such  differences  indicate  a  different  be  style  of  p o l i t i c s f o r Nova S c o t i a . Convention Context A l l t h r e e Nova S c o t i a n conventions was  i n o p p o s i t i o n . In each case,  an  o c c u r r e d w h i l e the  e l e c t i o n defeat p r e c i p i t a t e d  the r e s i g n a t i o n of the p a r t y l e a d e r which n e c e s s i t a t e d the of a l e a d e r s h i p convention. then,  was  The defeat  The concern of the p a r t y i n  the s e l e c t i o n of a l e a d e r who  power r a t h e r than one 1971  who  of the p a r t y  i n the  o f f i c e . The premier, G.I.  calling  convention  c o u l d r e t u r n the p a r t y to  could maintain  Progressive  party  power.  2  Conservative  convention,  1970  after  election  followed  fourteen  Smith, had been acclaimed  the  years  leader i n  in 1967  a f t e r Robert S t a n f i e l d ' s s u c c e s s f u l campaign f o r the l e a d e r s h i p of the  federal party.  Although  the  m i n o r i t y government, Smith was continue  as  The Three  1970  won  only  a  i n poor h e a l t h and d i d not wish to  leader.  leadership contest  relatively  leadership  Liberals in  well  making  a t t r a c t e d a good d e a l of a t t e n t i o n .  known  i t the  and  most  young  candidates  competitive  in  Tory  sought  the  provincial  The difference in competitive situation could be s i g n i f i c a n t . When a p a r t y i s i n o f f i c e i t may be more c o n s e r v a t i v e i n i t s l e a d e r s h i p , not wanting to 'rock the boat' as i t were. The f a c t t h a t Smith i n 1967 was not c h a l l e n g e d p o i n t s t o t h i s . The c h o i c e of P.E.I. L i b e r a l s i s a l s o i n s t r u c t i v e on t h i s count. In 197 8 when the p a r t y was ensconced i n power an o u t s i d e r was beaten d e c i s i v e l y by a long time c a b i n e t m i n i s t e r . In 1981, when the p a r t y was out of power, a long time c a b i n e t m i n i s t e r was beaten d e c i s i v e l y by an o u t s i d e r . 2  126 h i s t o r y . G e r a l d Doucet,33, a lawyer, MLA  from Richmond, Cape Breton  and seven year v e t e r a n of the c a b i n e t was p e r c e i v e d t o be the f r o n t runner  and  attracted  Chronicle Herald,  numerous  March 8 1971:  caucus  endorsements  1) . Doucet was  (Halifax  an Acadian  and  a  Roman C a t h o l i c . Another former c a b i n e t m i n i s t e r , John Buchanan, 39, was  regarded  as h i s main competitor.  Buchanan was  a P r o t e s t a n t who  of i t s r i d i n g s . He was appointed  to  Thornhill, horse.'  the  38,  Born  Dartmouth  lawyer, one  f i r s t e l e c t e d t o the l e g i s l a t u r e i n 1967  and  in  1969.  The  final  candidate,  Roland  something of an o u t s i d e r and viewed as a 'dark  i n Newfoundland,  when he  provincial  born  l i v e d i n H a l i f a x and r e p r e s e n t e d  cabinet  was  A Cape Breton  was  office,  quite  but  was  Thornhill's young.  the  family  Thornhill  mayor  of  had  had  moved  never  Dartmouth.  to  sought  He  was  a  businessman and a P r o t e s t a n t . Little  in  the  way  of  policy  differentiated  the  three  c a n d i d a t e s . A l l agreed t h a t the p a r t y had t o be r e o r g a n i z e d , involved  and  the  Regan  d i s c o r d a n t note  was  experience  an  was  government  quickly  defeated.  T h o r n h i l l ' s c l a i m t h a t h i s l a c k of asset  i n that  he  was  unsullied  by  The  youth only  political the  1970  d e f e a t . In l i g h t of the wide spread p o l i c y agreement, the H a l i f a x Chronicle impression determining 1971:  Herald  was  moved  of the candidates factor  i n how  to  lament:  "It  appears  r a t h e r than h i s p o l i c i e s ,  d e l e g a t e s mark t h e i r b a l l o t s "  that  the  w i l l be  a  (March 3  1). Each candidate pursued a s i m i l a r s t r a t e g y , t r a v e l l i n g around  the  province  to  address  "nominating  meetings  and  gatherings  of  127 c o n s t i t u e n c y a s s o c i a t i o n s " ( H a l i f a x C h r o n i c l e H e r a l d , March 3 1971: 2) . There were no  a l l candidate  policy  debates  and  only  as  the  c o n v e n t i o n began i n H a l i f a x were the t h r e e t o appear on the same stage. The justified  convention his  front  lasted  two  runner  ballots.  s t a t u s by  On  the  finishing  first, first  Doucet  with  282  v o t e s , f o r t y more than Buchanan and seventy ahead of a s u r p r i s i n g l y s t r o n g T h o r n h i l l . F o r c e d o f f the second b a l l o t , T h o r n h i l l d e c l a r e d his  support f o r Buchanan who  went on t o d e f e a t Doucet 391-34 6.  Doucet's s u p p o r t e r s were somewhat e m b i t t e r e d by and  the d e f e a t  a t t r i b u t e d i t t o an u r b a n / r u r a l or Cape Breton/Mainland  (Kavanagh, 1988: Chronicle  50-51) . The candidates denied such a s p l i t and the  Herald  irrelevance"  assigned  the  (March 8 1971:  1).  issue to  The L i b e r a l convention of 1980 announced t h a t he  was  i n the  going t o run  1978  "the  was  election.  was He  level  of  academic  c a l l e d when G e r a l d Regan  federally  t h a t year. Regan, a two-term premier, Conservatives  split  i n the e l e c t i o n  d e f e a t e d by  made c l e a r  of  Buchanan's  then  that  would not a g a i n seek p r o v i n c i a l o f f i c e and the f e d e r a l e l e c t i o n  he was  an o p p o r t u n i t y of which he took advantage, r a t h e r than the cause of his  resignation. Four  candidates  sought  the l e a d e r s h i p . The  perceived  front  runner was A.M.(Sandy) Cameron. Cameron, 42, a businessman and the only  Protestant  county. and  He  was  i n the  race  e l e c t e d MLA  subsequently  was  from  Sherbrooke  i n Guysborough  f o r Guysborough i n a 1973 b y - e l e c t i o n  appointed t o the  c a b i n e t where he  served  until  128 the L i b e r a l d e f e a t i n 1978. the p a r t y e s t a b l i s h m e n t Yarmouth was pharmacist, served  Cameron was thought  (Beck, 1988:  353).  t o be the c h o i c e of  F r a s e r Mooney, 53,  of  the most p o l i t i c a l l y e x p e r i e n c e d of the c a n d i d a t e s . A he was  i n the  f i r s t e l e c t e d i n the L i b e r a l v i c t o r y of 1970  c a b i n e t throughout  the Regan e r a . The  last  and  caucus  c a n d i d a t e was  V i n c e MacLean, a 36 year o l d t e a c h e r . MacLean, from  Sydney,  e l e c t e d to  was  the  legislature  in  1974.  He  served  Speaker of the House and a l s o spent two years i n c a b i n e t . The candidate, office.  Ken  Maclnnis,  37,  of H a l i f a x had  as  final  never run f o r p u b l i c  He was a lawyer whose p o l i t i c a l experience c o n s i s t e d of two  years as s p e c i a l a d v i s o r to Deputy Prime M i n i s t e r A l l a n MacEachen. With one e x c e p t i o n , the c a n d i d a t e s were not d i v i d e d on p o l i c y and the campaign was concerned cabinet  not marked by p o l i c y concerns.  ownership of o f f s h o r e m i n e r a l ministers  supported  a deal  rights.  negotiated  The  exception  The  three  with  the  government c e d i n g ownership c l a i m s f o r r o y a l t y payments C h r o n i c l e Herald, May  27 1980:  question  of p o l i t i c a l  experience  p o r t r a y i n g h i m s e l f as the newcomer who while  was  debated  with  could r e v i t a l i z e and  years  s e r v i c e . Cameron and MacLean attempted to p r o j e c t q u i t e images. Both emphasized t h e i r  MacLean  described  scrapper"  (Halifax  himself  (Halifax  i t s offshore resources.  Mooney s t r e s s e d h i s c a b i n e t experience  power, but while Cameron was  federal  1,2,6). Maclnnis d i s a g r e e d w i t h t h i s  and maintained t h a t Nova S c o t i a should own The  former  ability low  as  a  key  the p a r t y of p a r t y different  t o l e a d the p a r t y back to i n the S t a n f i e l d  dynamic  C h r o n i c l e Herald,  Maclnnis  June  leader 12  and  1980:  tradition, "political  7;  see  also  129 Kavanagh, 1988: 63) . The votes  he  Maclnnis,  first was  ballot well  left  ahead  Cameron w e l l out i n f r o n t . o f MacLean  138. D e s p i t e M a c l n n i s ' s  b a l l o t brought  at  support  244,  With 340  Mooney,  192  and  f o r MacLean the second  no d i m i n u t i o n o f Cameron's l e a d . He climbed t o 412  while MacLean rose t o 317 and Mooney h e l d r e l a t i v e l y steady at 187. Mooney  r e f u s e d t o endorse  support  The  but t h e b u l k  of h i s  558-356 v i c t o r y on  ballot. Chronicle Herald  the road  candidate,  p o i n t e d out t h e Liberal  candidate,  went t o Cameron who won a c o m f o r t a b l e  the t h i r d  of  either  f e l t Cameron was a compromise middle  but noted  h i s establishment  support  and  impact o f r e l i g i o n . The paper r e f e r r e d t o t h e past  tradition  of a l t e r n a t i n g Catholic  and P r o t e s t a n t l e a d e r s  and suggested t h a t "one o f the f a c t o r s p r e v e n t i n g F r a s e r Mooney, a Catholic  from  publicly  siding  with  Vince  MacLean  also  a  C a t h o l i c . . . was the r e l i g i o u s f a c t o r "  (June 12 1980: 7 ) . Subsequent  academic  research  indicated  religion.  Adamson  by  Adamson  found  also  the  t h a t one o f the reasons  i n f l u e n c e of  interim  Liberal  l e a d e r W i l l i a m G i l l i s had not sought t o make h i s p o s i t i o n permanent was h i s b e l i e f t h a t i t was a P r o t e s t a n t ' s t u r n  (1982: 5 ) .  Cameron's tenure as L i b e r a l l e a d e r was markedly u n s u c c e s s f u l . He  became o n l y t h e second L i b e r a l l e a d e r i n p r o v i n c i a l h i s t o r y not  to  serve as premier and l e d the p a r t y t o a l l time p o p u l a r vote lows  in  the e l e c t i o n s  Liberals Cameron.  of  1981  were reduced As  a  result  and  1984.  In the  1984  election  t o s i x s e a t s ; none o f which belonged of t h i s  failure  Cameron  resigned  the to  and a  130 c o n v e n t i o n was c a l l e d f o r 1986. V i n c e MacLean, h i s resume updated as O p p o s i t i o n l e a d e r i n the House, made h i s second t r y f o r the l e a d e r s h i p . He was c h a l l e n g e d by only one other c a n d i d a t e . Jim Cowan, 43, was a H a l i f a x lawyer  who  had never h e l d p u b l i c o f f i c e . A P r o t e s t a n t , he was P r e s i d e n t o f the p r o v i n c i a l p a r t y u n t i l he r e s i g n e d t o c o n t e s t the l e a d e r s h i p . One cannot c l a i m t h a t the two candidates d i f f e r e d i n terms of policy.  Both condemned the economic shortcomings  government  and  made  education  priorities.  The one area  and  care  of d i f f e r e n c e  o f t h e Buchanan  f o r the  aged  emphasized was  their  political  e x p e r i e n c e . MacLean s t r e s s e d h i s resume and urged d e l e g a t e s t o p i c k a l e a d e r w i t h experience, comparing the a l t e r n a t i v e t o b u y i n g a c a r without l o o k i n g under the hood ( H a l i f a x C h r o n i c l e H e r a l d ,  February  13 1986: 8 ) . Cowan argued t h a t i t was c l e a r Nova S c o t i a n s wanted a change and t h a t the L i b e r a l s c o u l d b e s t p r o v i d e t h i s w i t h a l e a d e r who was t r u l y The  new.  campaigns  betrayed  a  slight  regional  bias.  MacLean  boasted o f h i s Cape Breton base and c l a i m e d t h a t Cowan had almost no i s l a n d support. In response, Cowan suggested t h a t r e c e n t L i b e r a l failures  i n metro  Halifax  indicated  someone from t h a t r e g i o n — h i m — a s had  t h e support  of two-thirds  the n e c e s s i t y o f  choosing  l e a d e r . He went on c l a i m t h a t he o f the metro  Halifax  delegates  ( H a l i f a x C h r o n i c l e Herald, February 3 1986: 21; February 6 1986:3; see a l s o Kavanagh, 1988: 137-139). new t o Nova  Scotia.  MacLean's s t r a t e g y was r a t h e r  Emphasis was p l a c e d on d e l e g a t e  selection  meetings. Rather than c o n v i n c i n g e l e c t e d d e l e g a t e s t o vote f o r him,  131 MacLean  attempted  to  elect  delegates  who  were  support him ( H a l i f a x C h r o n i c l e Herald, February The  convention  predisposed  to  24 1986: 16).  ended up b e i n g one-sided.  MacLean's  second  t r y f o r the l e a d e r s h i p was s u c c e s s f u l as he o u t p o l l e d Cowan 1082 t o 721.  Post  convention  analysis  by  the media c l a i m e d  that  while  MacLean's support was s t r o n g e s t on Cape Breton, h i s was a 'province wide' v i c t o r y  ( H a l i f a x C h r o n i c l e Herald, February  24 1986: 16).  T h i s overview o f the t h r e e Nova S c o t i a n conventions that  none  o f them  were  understood  at the time  battlegrounds  and the few  delegate  existed  more  to  were  likely  be  cleavages  based  on  as  suggests  ideological  which  geography  might or  have group  differences. Geographic  Divisions  J o u r n a l i s t i c coverage  of the t h r e e Nova S c o t i a n conventions  r a i s e d the s p e c t r e of geographic rumours  splits  at two of them. In 1971,  c i r c u l a t e d t h a t Buchanan's v i c t o r y owed t o an u r b a n / r u r a l  or an a n t i Cape Breton v o t i n g s p l i t .  Both c a n d i d a t e s a t t h e 198 6  c o n v e n t i o n c l a i m e d e x t e n s i v e home r e g i o n support i n Cape Breton and metro H a l i f a x r e s p e c t i v e l y . One then may expect t o f i n d s i g n i f i c a n t associations An impact  on  between area of r e s i d e n c e and v o t i n g .  examination  of the r e g i o n a l v a r i a b l e  makes  clear i t s  the t h r e e conventions. The r e g i o n a l v a r i a b l e d i s p l a y e d  a more c o n s i s t e n t  a s s o c i a t i o n with v o t i n g than any o t h e r v a r i a b l e :  s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s between v o t i n g and r e g i o n were found on every c o n v e n t i o n b a l l o t . There i s g e n e r a l agreement on what r e g i o n means i n Nova S c o t i a . As noted e a r l i e r , the most obvious d i v i s i o n i s t h a t  132 b e t w e e n Cape B r e t o n and t h e m a i n l a n d .  However, t h e m a i n l a n d  subdivided  are  Valley,  South  As quite that  into  five  Shore,  Table  5-1  striking.  r e g i o n s . These Eastern Mainland  makes c l e a r ,  In  1971  created his f i r s t  votes,  but  was  any m a i n l a n d  unable  the  i t was ballot  and  l e a d . He  a  Shore.  72%  4 0%  from  Breton  o f t h e Cape  Breton  share  i n metro  albeit  in a tight  Doucet  l e d was  second  split  remaining  took  to the  73%  count.  40%  r a c e . The  Shore  of the  ballot  where  and  vote  won  only  little  Thornhill's  his other won  only  in  best  plurality,  r e g i o n i n which the  other  three  vote.  results  the North  he  Buchanan  were v i r t u a l l y  of  the  identical.  Cape B r e t o n  vote  to  Doucet 81%  and  Shore v o t e w i t h Buchanan. Buchanan  regions with majorities  The t e n d e n c y support  t h r e e way  h i s m a j o r i t y share  essentially the  Halifax  the North  regions with over  increased  of the  r e g i o n . B u c h a n a n ' s Cape B r e t o n o r i g i n s were o f  came  The  3  Cape  v a l u e as o n l y 9% o f Cape B r e t o n e r s s u p p o r t e d him. showing  Annapolis  v o t i n g p a t t e r n s were  support  took  even  Halifax,  North  regional  Doucet's  to achieve  metro  i s also  of not  less  than  won  54%.  o f Cape B r e t o n d e l e g a t e s t o p r o v i d e o v e r w h e l m i n g  local  c a n d i d a t e was  o f t h e Cape B r e t o n v o t e s  Local candidate  support  a g a i n e v i d e n t i n 1980. for fully  c o u l d a l s o be  52%  MacLean  of h i s t o t a l  seen  i n the  vote  regional  The r e g i o n s a r e amalgams o f v a r i o u s c o u n t i e s . The s u r v e y s c o m b i n e d t h e c o u n t i e s i n t h e f o l l o w i n g manner: V a l l e y (Hants t o C l a r e ) , S o u t h S h o r e (Yarmouth t o L u n e n b u r g ) , M e t r o H a l i f a x , E a s t e r n M a i n l a n d ( H a l i f a x E a s t e r n Shore, Guysborough, A n t i g o n i s h , P i c t o u ) , N o r t h S h o r e (Cumberland, C o l c h e s t e r ) , Cape B r e t o n (Cape B r e t o n , Richmond, I n v e r n e s s , V i c t o r i a ) . F o r a l a r g e l y s i m i l a r d i s c u s s i o n o f Nova S c o t i a ' s r e g i o n s s e e Dyck, 1986: 183. 3  133 v o t i n g f o r Mooney. Mooney a c t u a l l y o u t p o l l e d MacLean among mainland d e l e g a t e s and was p a r t i c u l a r l y s t r o n g on the South Shore where he won 53% of the v o t e . Indeed, t h i s accounted f o r 41% of h i s t o t a l . While M a c l n n i s was unable t o c a r r y any r e g i o n h i s b e s t showing i n metro H a l i f a x This  support  where he f i n i s h e d  from  the  capital  was  second w i t h 24% o f the vote.  region  comprised  44%  of h i s  p r o v i n c i a l t o t a l . Support f o r Cameron was t h e most b a l a n c e d . He won p l u r a l i t i e s i n f o u r r e g i o n s and was second t o Mooney on the South Shore and MacLean on Cape Breton. H i s s t r o n g e s t  showings were i n  the E a s t e r n Mainland and North Shore where he c a r r i e d over 70% of the v o t e s f o r almost h a l f  (46%) of h i s t o t a l .  Of course h i s home  town o f Sherbrooke was l o c a t e d i n the E a s t e r n Mainland. The r e g i o n a l t r e n d was no weaker on the second b a l l o t . Mooney c o n t i n u e d t o c a r r y the South Shore, but h i s mainland support as a whole dropped b e h i n d t h a t of MacLean. MacLean m a r g i n a l l y i n c r e a s e d h i s support from Cape Breton, but even the endorsement o f M a c l n n i s d i d l i t t l e t o h e l p him i n metro H a l i f a x where Cameron won over h a l f the v o t e . Cameron i n c r e a s e d h i s vote share i n each r e g i o n and came very c l o s e t o a second b a l l o t v i c t o r y . Only Cape Breton's support for  MacLean  mainland  prevented  that  as  Cameron  won  57%  of the  l o y a l t o MacLean on t h e t h i r d  ballot.  votes.  Cape Breton remained His  victory  75% share of t h e vote t h e r e exceeded  by 40 p o i n t s  h i s best  mainland showing. Cameron won each mainland r e g i o n by a minimum of 30 p o i n t s . H i s share of the mainland vote was an i m p r e s s i v e 72%. The 198 6 convention d i f f e r s  from the o t h e r two i n t h a t at  134 this  c o n v e n t i o n t h e c a n d i d a t e f r o m Cape B r e t o n won. T h i s d o e s n o t  mean t h a t h i s Cape B r e t o n s u p p o r t d i d n o t s t a n d o u t . Cape B r e t o n e r s accounted 35%  of  support Cowan  f o r barely a f i f t h MacLean's  came f r o m  support.  of the convention In c o n t r a s t , l e s s  but they than  provided  2% o f Cowan's  Cape B r e t o n . MacLean's p r e c o n v e n t i o n  claim that  l a c k e d i s l a n d s u p p o r t was n o t i d l e b o a s t i n g . Cowan r e c e i v e d  o n l y 4% o f t h e Cape B r e t o n v o t e . U n f o r t u n a t e l y f o r Cowan, h i s c l a i m of  two-thirds  Actually,  of  the  h i s support  weakest m a i n l a n d  Halifax  i n that  vote  region  was  only  less  reached  accurate. 43%, h i s  s h o w i n g . Cowan c a r r i e d o n l y one r e g i o n , t h e N o r t h  Shore, b u t h i s mainland bloc vote  metro  s u p p o r t was a r e s p e c t a b l e 48%. I t was t h e  o f Cape B r e t o n t h a t made t h e c o n v e n t i o n  a rout.  135 T a b l e 5-1" V o t i n g by Region 1971 P.C.  Annapolis Valley  South Shore  Halifax Metro  North Shore  Eastern Mainland  Buchanan  41  (62)  40  (64)  33  (56)  35  (49)  42  (54)  Doucet  29  (38)  33  (36)  33  (44)  37  (51)  37  (46)  72  (81)  Thornhill  30  35  —  28  —  20  —  19  —  27  ~  ~  Cape Breton 9 (19)  n=75  n=60  n=89  n=59  n=51  n=68  Cameron  35  26  39  76  73  14  Maclnnis  20  MacLean  18  Mooney  26  1980 Liberal (70) ~  9  (30) —  (75)  12  ~ (25)  53  —  (65)  24 21  ~ (35)  17  —  (79)  9  2  —  9 (21) 5  (80)  23  ~  9  -(20)  0  (25)  73  __ (75)  2  ~  —  n=74  n=57  Cowan  44  48  43  59  46  4  MacLean  56  52  57  41  54  96  n=109  n=60  n=90  n=45  1986 Liberal  n=144  Expanding understanding community  n=124  the  analysis  to  of the geographic  was t h a t  To b e g i n ,  o f urban  over  on  n=192  size  voting.  enhances  Indeed,  significantly associated  the contention rural  n=102  community  effect  s i z e v a r i a b l e was i t s e l f  v o t i n g i n many c a s e s . victory  n=104  n=234  the with  t h a t Buchanan's 1971  must be r e j e c t e d . W h i l e t h e  Unless otherwise s p e c i f i e d , t h e value o f c h i square f o r a l l t h e b i v a r i a t e r e l a t i o n s i s s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e .05 l e v e l o r b e t t e r . T h i s a l s o a p p l i e s t o t h e t a b l e s i n t h e New B r u n s w i c k chapter. F i g u r e s i n b r a c k e t s a r e from t h e f i n a l b a l l o t . 4  136 second b a l l o t  showed v i r t u a l l y no r e l a t i o n s h i p between v o t i n g and  the s i z e of a delegate's home community, the f i r s t i n the c i t y  of H a l i f a x  indicated that  (community over 100,000) Doucet  actually  a t t r a c t e d more support than e i t h e r Buchanan or T h o r n h i l l . in  the next  largest  category,  communities between  Indeed,  10,000  and  100,000, Doucet again o u t p o l l e d Buchanan; although T h o r n h i l l won a plurality  of the v o t e s . T h i s category  town of Dartmouth and  i n c l u d e d T h o r n h i l l ' s home  the Cape Breton c i t y of Sydney. Buchanan's  best showing was among the r u r a l d e l e g a t e s . The data do not l e n d support t o the c o n t e n t i o n t h a t Buchanan's v i c t o r y was t h a t of urban over r u r a l : i f anything the r e v e r s e was the case. The r e s u l t s from 1986 l e n d credence t o Cowan's c l a i m t h a t h i s candidacy was popular i n the H a l i f a x area. Cowan won over h a l f the votes of d e l e g a t e s l i v i n g  i n a community of over  100,000  people,  but nowhere e l s e c o u l d he g a i n a m a j o r i t y . A r e l a t i o n s h i p between community observed  size  and v o t i n g was  also  on the second and t h i r d b a l l o t s of the 1980 convention.  U n f o r t u n a t e l y , the c a t e g o r i e s of community s i z e used i n the survey of  that  convention  delegates  living  However,  delegates  make i t i m p o s s i b l e  in a city  of over  representing  to d i f f e r e n t i a t e  between  100, 000 or a town of 20, 000. the  rural  areas  of  Nova  S c o t i a - - p o p u l a t i o n of under 1000--were the staunchest supporters of Cameron. On the f i n a l b a l l o t he took 73% of t h e i r v o t e s . There community from  can be no doubt t h a t  a relationship  exists  s i z e and v o t i n g . At each of the conventions  the r u r a l  areas were the s t r o n g e s t backers  between  delegates  of the v i c t o r s .  137 Unlike  Prince  attracting rural  and  Edward  the  votes  results  substantial  the  their  neighbours  from  evidence  Cameron, Mooney, had  of  the  of  Doucet,  highest  no  candidate  rural  u r b a n Nova S c o t i a do  The  all  Island,  the  vote two  levels  delegates  of  spread to the A  vote.  rest  somewhat  in  Halifax broken  the  city  region. down  by  of the  variables  and  support  from  of  tendency  Halifax,  Examining  the  community  size  V o t e by P.C.  although  effect.  and  their  Maclnnis  friends Cowan  i n the  city  simply  was  observed  but  Thornhill  vote  of  (Table  the 5-2)  at  the  1971  a p l u r a l i t y of the carried  metro helps  the  Halifax clear  metro region  up  this  T a b l e 5-2 Community S i z e (Metro H a l i f a x )  Under  1000  1000-100,000  Over  100,000  40%  14%  38%  Doucet  40  5  41  Thornhill  20  81  21  n=21  n=5  n=63  Liberal Cowan  44%  34%  52%  MacLean  56  67  48  n=8  proved  d i d not  Buchanan  1986  and  c a r r i e d a majority of  d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r , D o u c e t won  puzzle.  1971  f o r him  (twice)  from  provide  neighbours  MacLean  by  region.  similar  c o n v e n t i o n . As was vote  Support  delegates  geographic  u n a b l e t o win h i s home r e g i o n , he n o n e t h e l e s s city  just  differently.  i n t h e i r home r e g i o n s . M o r e o v e r ,  the H a l i f a x  but  win  somewhat  friends  Thornhill,  could  n=93  n=109  138 Thornhill's  overall  disproportionate  support  between 10,000 and in  this  r e g i o n a l margin from  most  of  won  whom  84%  rest  of  the  astoundingly  delegates,  high.  All  living  created  by  i n communities  of  from  lived  in  d e l e g a t e s was  5  Thornhill's  things  was  of the votes  presumably  I n d e e d , when t h e v o t i n g o f D a r t m o u t h the  victory  delegates  100,000. He  category,  of  being  home  with  support  was  delegates  D a r t m o u t h were 60% more l i k e l y t o v o t e f o r T h o r n h i l l . 13).  In essence,  of a l l the  o n l y Buchanan f a i l e d  candidates  to benefit  from  at the  support  Dartmouth.  compared  area  equal,  delegates  (See T a b l e  three  from  from 5-  conventions,  his friends  and  neighbours.  Social  Groups Media coverage  t h e way 1980  o f group based  convention  establishment Inferential conventions had  of the three conventions v o t i n g c l e a v a g e s . The  where  versus  evidence  rumours  grassroots of  an  of  split  one  religious excited  establishment  division the  cleavage  o t h e r group cleavages  were  institutionally  References  little  e x c e p t i o n was  in the  and  an  commentators. at  the  c a n a l s o be g l e a n e d f r o m s u g g e s t i o n s t h a t one  the m a j o r i t y of caucus support.  The  a  suggested  to the  other  candidate  salience  of  absent. defined variables  of delegate type,  age  To do t h i s we s i m p l y l o o k e d a t t h e s e c t i o n o f t h e m e t r o H a l i f a x r e g i o n w i t h a p o p u l a t i o n b e t w e e n 10,000 and 100,000. S t r i c t l y s p e a k i n g , t h i s i n c l u d e s p l a c e s l i k e B e d f o r d and Cole H a r b o u r as w e l l as D a r t m o u t h . N o n e t h e l e s s , the bulk of this p o p u l a t i o n g r o u p i s p r o b a b l y f r o m D a r t m o u t h and i f t h e y a r e n o t i t s h o u l d weaken r a t h e r t h a n s t r e n g t h e n t h e f r i e n d s and neighbours effect. 5  139 and sex p r o v i d e the s t a r t i n g p o i n t f o r the a n a l y s i s . Based on the media coverage  s i g n i f i c a n t d i v i s i o n s on the delegate type cleavage  might be expected, Delegates can be chosen by  but l i t t l e  on the other two  come t o a convention  the  i n e i t h e r of two  support  of  the  party  i t was  suggested t h a t Cameron  establishment,  essentially  e x - o f f i c i o d e l e g a t e s . As w e l l , i n both 1971 and 1986, was  ways. They  c o n s t i t u e n c i e s or they can be d e l e g a t e s by v i r t u e  of the p o s i t i o n s they h o l d . In 1980 had  variables.  one  the  candidate  s a i d t o be the caucus f a v o u r i t e . Therefore, ample reasons e x i s t  to expect a v o t i n g d i v i s i o n on t h i s Despite t h i s , two f i n a l b a l l o t s i n  significant  dimension.  r e s u l t s were found  only f o r the  1980. E x - o f f i c i o d e l e g a t e s d i s p l a y e d a marked  p r e f e r e n c e f o r Cameron. The other conventions d i d not have such an institutional particular significant,  split  d e s p i t e the rumoured caucus p r e f e r e n c e f o r a  candidate. convention  However, winners  while  the  invariably  results  are  received a  not  higher  p r o p o r t i o n of votes c a s t by e x - o f f i c i o d e l e g a t e s . The h i g h e r share ranged  from  5.6%  t o 15.2%. I t thus  seems l e g i t i m a t e t o  conclude  t h a t e x - o f f i c i o d e l e g a t e s were more l i k e l y t o support the winner than  were  constituency  delegates.  the  1980  L i b e r a l convention d i s p l a y e d a b r a s s versus the grass s p l i t .  (See  Table 5-3).  also  Perhaps not c o i n c i d e n t a l l y ,  marked by d i s c u s s i o n s on the r e l i g i o u s Given  Nonetheless,  the h i s t o r i c  this  c o n f l i c t over l e a d e r s h i p s e l e c t i o n , the ex t o modify  convention was  a l t e r n a t i o n of l e a d e r s h i p .  problems i n t h a t p a r t y  have d e l i b e r a t e l y sought  only  c r e a t e d by  religious  o f f i c i o delegates  v o t i n g along r e l i g i o u s  may  lines.  140 T a b l e 5-3 V o t e by D e l e g a t e SECOND BALLOT 1980 Liberal  Type THIRD  Regular  Ex-officio  BALLOT  Ex-officio  Regular  Cameron  63%  48%  73%  60%  MacLean  28  36  27  40  Mooney  10  17  —  —  n=83  n=337  n=81  n=333  D e l e g a t e t y p e i s by no means t h e o n l y i n s t i t u t i o n a l v a r i a b l e . Constituencies young  party  first  support  also  members.  relationships The  were  Indeed,  i n 1971  delegates  delegates over  Table  sixty.  saw D o u c e t under  60% o f t h e ' y o u t h '  achieve  thirty  the over  sixty  and  shows,  significant  at each  convention.  h i s highest  h i s lowest  level  level  vote, but took  of  from  the reverse  i n t e n s i f i e d on t h e f i n a l b a l l o t .  by d e l e g a t e s b e t w e e n t h i r t y a n d s i x t y from  5-4  representation to  F o r b o t h Buchanan and T h o r n h i l l  was t h e c a s e . T h i s t e n d e n c y won  as  to provide  b e t w e e n age a n d v o t i n g e x i s t e d  ballot from  required  o n l y 4 9% o f t h e  Doucet  votes  cast  a n d a meagre 35% o f t h e v o t e  group.  Age was a l s o s i g n i f i c a n t l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h v o t i n g on t h e two final  ballots  Cameron ballot,  i n 1980.  increased with  Essentially, t h e age  the  level  of  of the delegates.  support  On  the  Cameron a n d MacLean v i r t u a l l y s p l i t t h e ' y o u t h '  vote  for  second while  Cameron won h a r d y m a j o r i t i e s f r o m t h e o l d e r d e l e g a t e s . Cameron majorities  from  remained h i g h e s t  every  age g r o u p on t h e l a s t b a l l o t ,  but h i s share  w i t h t h e o l d e s t d e l e g a t e s and l o w e s t  d e l e g a t e s under t h i r t y . R e g r e s s i o n  analysis  won  showed t h a t  with the delegates  141 u n d e r 30 were 10% MacLean's  less  likely  relatively  to vote strong  f o r Cameron.  showing  among  the  d e l e g a t e s d i d n o t p e r s i s t a t t h e 198 6 c o n v e n t i o n . I n d e e d , under  thirty  were  reached  its  f o r the  o t h e r age  least  zenith  of  likely  47%  to  with the  support youth  him.  and  younger delegates  Cowan's  d i d not  support  exceed  35%  groups. T a b l e 5-4 V o t e by Age  1971  Under  P.C.  30  Over  30-60  60  Buchanan  26%  (40%)  34%  (51%)  37%  (65%)  Doucet  55  (60)  37  (49)  29  (35)  Thornhill  19  •28  34  n=91  n=243  n=68  SECOND  AND  BALLOTS  1980  Liberal  (THIRD)  Cameron  44%  (54%)  49%  (62%)  62%  (79%)  MacLean  43  (47)  35  (38)  20  (22)  Mooney  13  16  18  n=99  n=256  n=65  1986 Liberal Cowan MacLean  47%  35%  32%  53  65  68  n=532  n=250  Evidence related do  from  a l l three  conventions  t o v o t i n g . Young d e l e g a t e s v o t e  older  relative  delegates. ages  of  the  This  n=121  cannot  be  candidates. For  suggests  that  age  somewhat d i f f e r e n t l y  attributed example,  solely i n 1986  is than  to  the  the  older  At  most  Cowan d i d b e s t w i t h t h e y o u n g e r d e l e g a t e s . The  final  institutional  variable  is  gender.  142 conventions  representation  constituency. either  However,  of the Liberal  of  there  women  were  conventions.  i s with  demanded  no g e n d e r  gaps  from  candidates.  the t r a d i t i o n a l variables  each  i n voting at  Women a n d men v o t e d  identical proportions for the various It  was  i n roughly  6  t h a t one w o u l d  expect  t h e s t r o n g e s t v o t i n g d i v i s i o n s . E t h n i c d i v i s i o n s have b e e n o f m a j o r importance  i n Canadian  divisions  t o Nova  Acadians  make  population. found  politics,  Scotian  up  less  leadership  than  Not s u r p r i s i n g l y ,  between e t h n i c i t y  but  the  relevance  conventions  t e n percent  of  no s i g n i f i c a n t  of  i s doubtful.  the  provincial  a s s o c i a t i o n s were  a n d v o t i n g . Of t h e e i g h t c a n d i d a t e s ,  D o u c e t was o f n o n - B r i t i s h s t o c k a n d s i n c e o n l y s i x p e r c e n t 1971  d e l e g a t e s were A c a d i a n ,  was  limited.  delegates  Nonetheless,  o f French  origin  his ability to exploit Doucet  this  ballot  only  of the  advantage  d i d w i n 48% o f t h e v o t e  on t h e f i r s t  such  a n d 67% on  from the  l a s t . The number o f F r e n c h d e l e g a t e s was j u s t t o o s m a l l f o r t h i s t o be  of real In  importance.  contrast  religious  differences  politically  important  leadership  convention  experienced  Chapter  o r Camp,  1979: 1 5 1 f f ) .  2  i t turns  historically  i n Nova S c o t i a . The 1954 Nova S c o t i a a major r e l i g i o u s Indeed,  s u g g e s t e d t h a t r e l i g i o n was o f some i m p o r t As  have  out, Protestants  been  Liberal  d i v i s i o n (see  media  speculation  a t t h e 1980 c o n v e n t i o n . and  Catholics  differed  W h i l e s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t r e s u l t s c a n n o t be o b t a i n e d f o r t h e 1971 c o n v e n t i o n , one s h o u l d n o t e i n p a s s i n g t h a t B u c h a n a n ' s c a n d i d a c y was more p o p u l a r w i t h women. On t h e s e c o n d b a l l o t , D o u c e t e d g e d B u c h a n a n i n male s u p p o r t w h i l e 59% o f t h e women b a c k e d Buchanan. 6  143 significantly ballot.  The  in  evidence  relationship The of  the  split. was  at  presented  votes  each  in  convention  Table  5-5  and  suggests  o f t h e 1971  convention  c a s t by  Catholics,  but  i n P r o t e s t a n t s u p p o r t . The  under  25%  of  However,  left  trailing  a  the  convention)  Catholics  may  have  i f more C a t h o l i c s h a d  Buchanan  and  accentuated  the  (37%  cost  impression i s  of the  population to  Doucet  been p r e s e n t  d e l e g a t e t o t a l a t t h e two  have  p l a y e d a more p r o m i n e n t  the  leadership.  i t would have been C a t h o l i c s made up  Liberal role  conventions  founded.  On  the  first  P r o t e s t a n t v o t e , b u t was among C a t h o l i c s .  Protestant,  while  This s p l i t  63%  ballot,  Cameron  percent  won  over  were v e r y half  47%.  The  winning Catholic  71%  of  were  p e r s i s t e d on t h e s e c o n d b a l l o t . Cameron's s h a r e  l a r g e number o f C a t h o l i c  b a l l o t n e c e s s a r y . Cameron's 62% the  v o t e . The  Protestant importance  only P r o t e s t a n t s voted,  of the  and  d e l e g a t e s made a  just  religious  over  half  division  Cameron w o u l d have won  a  is  first  of  support third  o f t h e t h i r d b a l l o t v o t e came vote  to  Catholic.  t h e P r o t e s t a n t v o t e c l i m b e d t o 60% w h i l e MacLean's C a t h o l i c to  the  o f Cameron's s u p p o r t e r s  o f MacLean's were  at and  o u t p o l l e d by MacLean by a m a r g i n o f 41%  Seventy  a  i n that party.  The rumours s u g g e s t i n g a r e l i g i o u s d i v i s i o n i n 1980  If  57%  initial  p a r t y , more l i k e t h e L i b e r a l s .  45% o f t h e  historically  rose  strong  Doucet w i t h  both  second b a l l o t  o f t h e P r o t e s t a n t s . The  representation of  very d i f f e r e n t  26%  every  Doucet t o o k t w o - t h i r d s o f t h e C a t h o l i c v o t e , w h i l e Buchanan  that  well  on  voting preference.  ballot  s u p p o r t e d by 57%  least  voting  between r e l i g i o n and  first  Thornhill  their  of  from the  clear. ballot  144 victory.  I f only  A religious not  Catholics split  voted,  MacLean m i g h t h a v e won.  7  was a g a i n e v i d e n t i n 1986, a l t h o u g h i t was  a s s t a r k a s a t t h e o t h e r c o n v e n t i o n s . MacLean was a b l e t o w i n  majority  support  from both  religious  groups,  but h i s share  of the  C a t h o l i c v o t e was 20 p o i n t s h i g h e r t h a n h i s s h a r e o f t h e P r o t e s t a n t vote.  Cowan  was  f a r more  successful  i n attracting  support  from  Protestants. T a b l e 5-5 V o t i n g by R e l i g i o n 1971  P.C. Buchanan  37%  (58%)  20%  (33%)  Doucet  33  (42)  57  (67)  Thornhill  30  —  22  —  n=288 1980  n=98  Liberal Cameron  50%  (71%)  Maclnnis  13  —  14  MacLean  20  (29)  41  (50%)  Mooney  17  —  18  —  26%  (50%)  —  n=187  n=231 1986  Roman C a t h o l i c  Protestant  Liberal Cowan  45%  26%  MacLean  55  74  n=477 There  is little  doubt  n=377 that  a l l three  conventions  were  One c o u l d a r g u e t h a t MacLean m i g h t have won b e c a u s e he l e d i n C a t h o l i c s u p p o r t on t h e f i r s t two b a l l o t s . I f t h e c o n v e n t i o n h a d u n f o l d e d i n t h a t f a s h i o n , t h e e x p e c t a t i o n s a n d i m p a c t o f momentum w o u l d p r o b a b l y h a v e b e e n s u f f i c i e n t f o r MacLean t o w i n . 7  145 affected  by  a  Protestants  religiously  vote  differently,  Indeed, the r e l i g i o u s convention  based  as i t was  voting even  d i v i s i o n was at  cleavage.  at  Catholics  leadership  conventions.  as n o t a b l e a t t h e  Conservative  t h e L i b e r a l g a t h e r i n g s . Rumours r e g a r d i n g  t h e p o l i t i c a l d e m i s e o f r e l i g i o n i n Nova S c o t i a a p p e a r  exaggerated.  The f i n a l s o c i a l g r o u p s t o be e x a m i n e d , w i t h l i t t l e in  their  relevance,  examination  of  are  the  more  economic  class offers l i t t l e  and  economically  based.  categories of  As  income,  confidence expected  education  e v i d e n c e o f a c o n s i s t e n t s t a t u s gap  an and  i n delegate  voting. Income  level  conventions. was  MacLean  Subsequent b a l l o t s  Cowan won was  associated  (See T a b l e 5 - 6 ) .  o u t p o l l e d by  level.  was  49%  of the  voting  On t h e f i r s t  among saw  votes  with  delegates  ballot  D o u c e t won  c a s t by  the  i n 1980,  the  the  Cameron  highest  income 1986,  wealthiest delegates, support  from t h e i r  i n 1971  even l e s s d i s c r i m i n a t i n g .  c o u l d an  education  but less  gap  be  O n l y on  discerned.  Class,  or  occupational  associated  with  convention  (Table 5-6).  c l a s s vote,  voting  a share  only Again,  delegates.  status, on  the  was  ballot  56%  that declined with class  economic v a r i a b l e s , then,  also  second  D o u c e t won  appeared  (See T a b l e  the  There,  58% o f t h e u n i v e r s i t y e d u c a t e d v o t e s , w h i l e Buchanan  g i v e n m a j o r i t y s u p p o r t by l e s s e d u c a t e d  The  of  colleagues.  L e v e l o f e d u c a t i o n was final  at  two  Cameron c o r r e c t t h i s t r e n d . I n  n o t n e a r l y as s u c c e s s f u l i n a t t r a c t i n g  affluent  ballot  at  was  5-6).  significantly of  the  of the upper  1971 middle  level. t o e x e r t an i n f l u e n c e  146 mainly  at the  'higher  status',  educated, not.  It  may  be  regional  convention. that  is  Delegates  upper  who  c o u l d be  middle  class  p r e f e r r e d D o u c e t o v e r B u c h a n a n . The is  something  v a r i a b l e s may It  1971  examined l a t e r  a  surprise  have b e e n i m p o r t a n t  t h a t such or  of  a preference  religious i n the  is related This  or  university  other delegates d i d  discover  a t e v e n one  differences.  chapter.  to  considered  that  of the to the  economic  conventions. more  possibility  expected will  be  147  Vote  T a b l e 5-6 b y C l a s s , E d u c a t i o n a n d Income Upper Middle  Class Buchanan  1971 P.C. (2nd)  Doucet  1971 P.C. (2nd)  Education  56%  62%  56  44  38  n=176  n=25  University Degree  High School Graduate  Less than High School  Doucet  Income  44%  n=174  Buchanan  1980 Liberal (1st)  Working  Middle  42%  59%  53%  57  42  47  n=165  n=176  n=57  Low  Medium  High  Cameron  46%  43%  29%  Maclnnis  12  14  12  MacLean  33  29  31  Mooney  10  15  28  n=52  n=93  n=283  1986 Liberal Cowan MacLean Only social of  i n Nova S c o t i a  ' insider'  t h e 1983 a n d  convention  42%  34%  49%  58  66  51  n=626 n=86 does i t make much s e n s e  n=164 to construct a  s c a l e s i m i l a r t o t h a t used by Stewart i n h i s s t u d y 1984 n a t i o n a l  context,  an  conventions.  'insider'  I n t h e Nova S c o t i a n  i s defined  as  a  relatively  wealthy, u n i v e r s i t y educated, upper middle c l a s s d e l e g a t e l i v i n g i n a  community  of  over  50,000  i n t h e metro  Halifax  r e g i o n (see  148 Stewart,  1988b:  161,162).  An  'outsider'  c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Thus a c o m p o s i t e '0'  (outsider) to This  scale  convention. and  this  support  '5'  (insider)  was  I n 1980,  not  significance f o r Maclnnis.  pattern  evident.  c a n be  largely  Only  at  (See T a b l e  of  these  the  from  created. with  significant  was  none  s o c i a l insider scale ranging  associated  i t was  has  voting  at  o n l y on t h e  attributable 1986  the  first  1971 ballot  to variations  convention  was  a  clear  5-7).  Cowan t o o k 57% o f t h e v o t e s c a s t by d e l e g a t e s s c o r i n g '5' 42%  of  levels  the  vote  never  reflects  in  Halifax.  The  insiders'  from  gave part  even  support  high  helps  delegates  him  level  he  moved was  as  Kavanagh  indicates,  suggests  40%  '4'.  vote  his  support mistaken  friends he  won  belief  of  these  was  in Halifax  that these  not  i n the  the  rest  are  lower this  he  had  context  in  'social almost  i n which  insiders  and  thus  popularity. Certainly, regarded  favourably  (1988: 1 3 7 ) . MacLean's  'circles'  and  neighbours  from that  social  at  Obviously,  and  area v o t e . Perhaps the  MacLean  with grass roots L i b e r a l s  Delegates  share.  idea of h i s general  certain Liberal circles support  of  composed m a i n l y  gave Cowan a m i s t a k e n  a  scoring  from  explain his  two-thirds of the H a l i f a x  in  somewhat o u t  of the  province.  of  in  overall touch  149 Table 5-7 Vote by S o c i a l I n s i d e r (Ascending) 1  Scale  2  3  4  5  Cowan  39%  38%  27%  43%  57%  MacLean  61  62  73  57  43  n=112  n=447  n=159  n=42  n=143  T h i s examination of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between delegate  voting  and s o c i a l groups r e v e a l s t h a t r e l i g i o n i s a s s o c i a t e d most s t r o n g l y with v o t i n g and t h i s q u i t e c o n s i s t e n t l y . A s i d e from the r e f e r e n c e to  Mooney  not  supporting  a  fellow  Catholic  in  1980,  the  j o u r n a l i s t i c coverage was s i l e n t as t o the e x i s t e n c e of r e l i g i o n as a  source of v o t i n g  literature political  on  Nova  relevance  divisions. Scotian  Indeed, much of the contemporary  politics  of r e l i g i o n .  This  refers  to  the  declining  i s not supported  by the  evidence p r e s e n t e d here. Once more, however, the ' l i n g e r i n g impact' of  religion  groups.  One  could  rest  on  the behaviour  could  hypothesize,  as  of p a r t i c u l a r  i n the  last  chapter,  social that  r e l i g i o n ' s d e c l i n e i s most pronounced among the young or the h i g h l y educated. The i n f l u e n c e of r e l i g i o n c o u l d be due t o the m i n o r i t y s t a t u s of these delegates Broadly  speaking,  remove r e l i g i o n  at Nova S c o t i a n however,  as an important  conventions.  educational  controls  d i d not  source of cleavage at the three  conventions. While s i g n i f i c a n t r e s u l t s c o u l d not each category, the tendency of P r o t e s t a n t s  be obtained f o r  to disproportionately  150 support  P r o t e s t a n t s a n d C a t h o l i c s , C a t h o l i c s was w i d e s p r e a d .  r e l i g i o u s c l e a v a g e was s t a t i s t i c a l l y even f o r u n i v e r s i t y educated cleavage,  then,  as e v i d e n c e d  weaker among t h e s e The In  impact  by  won  youth  Protestant support  a majority  vote  youth  from  was  vote.  convention  R e l i g i o n as a s o u r c e o f  5-8,  was  not appreciably  delegates.  of votes  61% o f t h e v o t e ballots  much  than  from  c a s t by d e l e g a t e s  affiliation. higher  Cameron,  Protestants  t h e two f i n a l  Table  elite  regardless of religious  Catholic  took  delegates.  The  o f age on r e l i g i o n i s somewhat h a r d e r t o d e s c r i b e .  1971, D o u c e t  thirty  relatively  s i g n i f i c a n t a t each  8  Yet h i s share  than  i n 1980,  his  share  invariably  won  more ballot  30. I n c o n t r a s t , on  MacLean won a m a j o r i t y o f t h e v o t e s  young C a t h o l i c d e l e g a t e s ,  of the of the  C a t h o l i c s a n d on t h e f i n a l  P r o t e s t a n t s under  under  but not from o l d e r C a t h o l i c  c a s t by  delegates.  Thus, c o n t r a r y t o e x p e c t a t i o n s , i t was t h e o l d e r C a t h o l i c s who d i d not  adhere  to the religious  Cowan's s u p p o r t  from youth  a  third  of  the  At  t h e 1986  convention,  d e l e g a t e s was p r i m a r i l y P r o t e s t a n t . He  a c t u a l l y won a m a j o r i t y o f t h e only  division.  P r o t e s t a n t youth vote but garnered  Catholic  youth  vote.  Cowan's  relative  p o p u l a r i t y w i t h young d e l e g a t e s d i d n o t c r o s s t h e r e l i g i o u s  divide.  E v e n e l d e r l y P r o t e s t a n t s were more s u p p o r t i v e t h a n young C a t h o l i c s .  When t h e r a c e was down t o j u s t d i v i s i o n was c o n s i s t e n t a c r o s s a l l l e v e l s 8  two men t h e of education.  religious  151 T a b l e 5-8 I n d e x o f R e l i g i o u s S u p p o r t by E d u c a t i o n a n d Age# EDUCATION AGE Less than High School  High School  University Degree  Under 30  30-60  O v e r 60  Buchanan  +25 (+29)  + 14 (+10)  +15* (+34)*  +8 ( + 8)  + 18* (+27)*  +24 (+37)*  Doucet  -27 (-29)  -13 (-10)  -30* (-34)*  -13 (-8)  -24* (-27)*  -34 (-37)*  Thornhill  +2  -1  +16*  +5  + 6*  + 10  Cameron  +37 (+46)  +37* (+27)*  +15* (+17)*  + 16 ( + 14)  +26* (+22)*  +21 (+20)  Maclnnis  -20  -13*  + 6*  -1  -1*  -4  MacLean  -31 (-46)  -22* (-27)*  -20* (-17)*  -19 (-14)  -21* (-22)*  -20 (-20)  Mooney  + 14  -2  -1*  +4  -5  +3  Cowan  + 19*  +28  +14*  +22  + 16  +32  MacLean  -19*  -28  -14*  -22  -16  -32  from P r o t e s t a n t support. A negative number indicates that a c a n d i d a t e had a h i g h e r p e r c e n t a g e o f support from C a t h o l i c s w h i l e a p o s i t i v e number means t h a t t h e l e v e l o f P r o t e s t a n t s u p p o r t was h i g h e r . F i g u r e s i n b r a c k e t s a r e f i n a l b a l l o t r e s u l t s . An a s t e r i s k i n d i c a t e s t h a t c h i s q u a r e f o r r e l i g i o u s d i f f e r e n c e s was s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e .05 l e v e l o r b e t t e r . P r o t e s t a n t c a n d i d a t e s a r e i n i t a l i c s . The diminished  importance of the r e l i g i o u s cleavage, then,  i s scarcely  by t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f age o r e d u c a t i o n a l  c o n t r o l s . In  essence, Protestants age  or education.  unimportant. the  and C a t h o l i c s v o t e d i f f e r e n t l y  This  Rather,  i s not t o say t h a t  their  influence  such  regardless categories  of are  i s , at l e a s t , mitigated  by  religious variable. Surprisingly,  striking.  Age  was  the  importance  significantly  of  age  associated  was with  initially voting  at  quite each  152 convention and the value of Cramer's V (see Table 5-10) was h i g h e r with age than i t was with any other group v a r i a b l e save Its  interaction  with  religion  makes c l e a r e r  g e n e r a t i o n gap. In 1971, the impact among the younger over the other effect  was  delegates  the nature  religion. of t h i s  of r e l i g i o n was most subdued  delegates. S p e c i f i c a l l y ,  Doucet was p r e f e r r e d  candidates r e g a r d l e s s of r e l i g i o n . However, the age  most were  pronounced  no  more  elders. Essentially,  among  Protestants:  supportive  of  Doucet  young than  Catholic  were  their  the age d i v i s i o n was an i n t e r n a l P r o t e s t a n t  d i v i s i o n . C a t h o l i c s , r e g a r d l e s s of age, were s o l i d l y behind Doucet. The impact  i n t r o d u c t i o n of a r e l i g i o u s c o n t r o l i n 1980 reduced the  of age. The p r o p o r t i o n i n which P r o t e s t a n t s and C a t h o l i c s  voted f o r candidates was v i r t u a l l y u n a f f e c t e d by age. However, on the  final  ballot,  while  a l l P r o t e s t a n t s gave Cameron m a j o r i t y  support, h i s share rose from  61% of the under t h i r t y  vote t o 70%  from d e l e g a t e s between t h i r t y and s i x t y t o 85% from d e l e g a t e s over s i x t y . Even among C a t h o l i c s , h i s from  the  older  delegates.  h i g h e s t l e v e l of support  Religion  notwithstanding,  comes  Cameron's  candidacy was s t r o n g e s t among the o l d e r d e l e g a t e s . At remove  the 198 6 convention  the  significance  even  religious  of the age  c o n t r o l s c o u l d not  cleavage.  However,  among  P r o t e s t a n t s only the youth p r o v i d e d Cowan  with m a j o r i t y support.  Similarly,  MacLean i n c r e a s e d with  the  the p r o p o r t i o n of support  age of C a t h o l i c  with the youth  d e l e g a t e s . Cowan's  of both  among P r o t e s t a n t s .  for  religious  groups,  candidacy albeit  was s t r o n g e s t much  stronger  153 R e l i g i o n and associated  with  obviously  age  were t h e  voting  more  at  o n l y group v a r i a b l e s  each  important.  convention  Other  variables  a s s o c i a t e d w i t h v o t i n g a t no more t h a n undercut the  pattern  Somewhat association  voting  in  tendency  was  delegates  t o support Doucet.  was  for  l a r g e l y due  support  the  both  largely  created  of  educated  Catholic  the  groups  did  not  displayed  and  1986.  In  and  upper  middle  Catholics.  included  backed  by  was  significantly  In c o n t r a s t ,  Doucet.  mass  delegates.  Buchanan's  majority  The  the class  support  split  majority  (53%)  from  80% o f t h e u n i v e r s i t y  educational  support  for  One  unlikely  is  an  1971,  I t appears t h a t the e d u c a t i o n a l  u n i v e r s i t y educated Protestants. Catholics  1971  educated  voting  from P r o t e s t a n t s  educated  were  c o n v e n t i o n s and  economic  university  to  two  religion  of r e l i g i o u s support.  surprisingly,  with  and  significantly  Doucet  division  from  to  was  university  find  a  sharper  r e j e c t i o n of the n o t i o n that r e l i g i o u s l y based v o t i n g d e c l i n e s with education. The education,  c l a s s d i v i s i o n was Buchanan's  a l s o i n f l u e n c e d by  Protestant  c l a s s l i n e s and D o u c e t ' s m a j o r i t y was  due  l a r g e l y to the  Catholics. owe high  In e s s e n c e ,  l a r g e l y to status Income  the  79% the  support  consistent  from upper middle c l a s s  support given economic  overwhelming  was  r e l i g i o n . As  him  by  across  delegates  upper middle c l a s s  divisions discovered  support  with  f o r Doucet  in  provided  1971 by  Catholics. level  was  the  a s s o c i a t e d w i t h v o t i n g at the  economic 1986  variable  c o n v e n t i o n . The  most  strongly  d i r e c t i o n of  the  154 association  was  'wealthy.'  This  disproportionate association  support  remained  f o r Cowan  noteworthy  among the  despite  the  i n t r o d u c t i o n o f r e l i g i o u s c o n t r o l s . Cowan won a s l i m m a j o r i t y o f the votes  c a s t by a f f l u e n t  P r o t e s t a n t s and a l s o took 4 6% of the  votes from a f f l u e n t C a t h o l i c s . Less wealthy C a t h o l i c s gave him no more than 30% support.  The more a f f l u e n t delegates, r e g a r d l e s s of  r e l i g i o n were more l i k e l y t o support Cowan. Before l e a v i n g r e l i g i o n , the impact o f delegate type must be assessed.  Based on the PEI f i n d i n g s , one might expect  delegates  t o be  immune  from  the r e l i g i o u s  e a r l i e r , the delegate type v a r i a b l e was the  ex-officio  division.  As  noted  i t s e l f s i g n i f i c a n t only at  1980 convention. B r i e f l y r e c a p i t u l a t e d , the  Cameron t o r e c e i v e p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y more  support  tendency was f o r from  ex-officio  delegates than he d i d from the c o n s t i t u e n c y d e l e g a t e s . The r e l e v a n t question  thus  becomes  whether  ex-officio  s u p p o r t i v e o f MacLean as the c o n s t i t u e n c y They support  were  owed  not. The  largely  significance  t o h i s support  Catholics  were  as  delegates. of Cameron's  from e x - o f f i c i o  ex-officio Catholics.  (See Table 5-9). On the f i r s t b a l l o t Cameron won a p l u r a l i t y of 43% from  Catholic ex-officio  delegates  while  MacLean was  choice of C a t h o l i c constituency delegates.  the c l e a r  The remaining  saw MacLean o u t p o l l Cameron among C a t h o l i c c o n s t i t u e n c y but  not among t h e i r  final  two b a l l o t s  ex-officio  brethren.  were not s i g n i f i c a n t ,  While  results  ballots delegates f o r the  i t seems c l e a r t h a t the  g e n e r a l weakness Cameron had i n a t t r a c t i n g C a t h o l i c support d i d not apply t o e x - o f f i c i o d e l e g a t e s . These delegates were probably  more  155 cognizant and  of the party  acted  recognized  t o ensure that  Catholic claims might  have  a  tradition such  that  an outcome.  Protestant  victory  on t h e l e a d e r s h i p .  remembered  i t was a P r o t e s t a n t ' s  the  As  would  Finally,  debacle  well,  that  they  may  preserve  ex-officio  future  the  i n 1980.  T a b l e 5-9 V o t e b y D e l e g a t e Type b y R e l i g i o n Regular  Delegate  Ex-officio  Delegate  Protestant  Catholic  Protestant  Catholic  Buchanan  58%  32%  64%  35%  Doucet  42  68  36  66  n=172  n=56  n=8 9  n=2 9  Cameron  50%  24%  50%  43%  Maclnnis  13  14  14  21  MacLean  19  42  21  32  Mooney  18  21  15  4  n=175  n=156  n=52  n=28  Cameron  71%  49%  77%  62%  MacLean  30  51  24  38  n=166  n=155  n=51  n=26  Cowan  45%  29%  44%  21%  MacLean  55  71  56  79  1971  P.C.  1980 Liberal (1st)  (3rd)  1986 Liberal  n=350 Chi  Square i s s i g n i f i c a n t  n=273 n=118 only f o r the f i n a l b a l l o t  have  Catholics  followed  c o n v e n t i o n a n d worked t o e n s u r e i t was n o t r e p e a t e d  turn  n=98 i n 1980.  1954  156 At little  the other  conventions  distinctions  to mitigate the r e l i g i o u s  Protestant  ex-officio  Protestants  than  cleavage.  delegates  their  fellow  e x - o f f i c i o delegates evidenced  voted  conventions  In both  more  ex-officio  type d i d  1971 a n d 1986,  like  their  delegates.  fellow  Voting  j u s t as s t r o n g a r e l i g i o u s  as d i d t h e v o t i n g o f c o n s t i t u e n c y of these  of delegate  by  cleavage  d e l e g a t e s . Of c o u r s e , a t n e i t h e r  were b r o k e r a g e c o n c e r n s  as  explicit.  T a b l e 5-10 Cramer's V 1971 1st  P.C. 2nd  1980 1st  Liberal 2nd  3rd  1986 Liberal  Region  .23  .30  .40  .43  .41  .37  Urban  .17  *  —  —  —  .14  Ethnicity  —  —  —  —  —  —  Religion  .22  .22  .27  .25  .22  .19  Age  .13  .16  —  .11  .16  .12  Gender  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  .12  .10  —  Education  —  .15  —  —  —  —  Income  —  —  .13  —  —  —  Class  —  .13  —  —  —  —  Delegate Type  Thus  f a r the  discussion of  group  divisions  geographic  f a c t o r s . However, i n o r d e r t o u n d e r s t a n d  divisions  within  the  parties,  i t i s necessary  r e l a t i o n s h i p between group v a r i a b l e s Table  5-10  invariably is  somewhat  showed, regional.  the  strongest  has  excluded  more f u l l y t h e to  and g e o g r a p h i c  analyze variables.  associations with  vote  The n o t i o n o f r e g i o n a t t h e p r o v i n c i a l  problematic.  Few  observers  claim  that  the  Nova  As  were level  Scotian  157 p o l i t i c s i s r i v e n w i t h s e c t i o n a l i s m . I n s t e a d o f r e g i o n p e r se b e i n g important,  one may be s e e i n g a m a n i f e s t a t i o n o f t h e  effect'(Agnew,  1987:  96).  This  means,  as  "Geography i s e p i p h e n o m e n a l , i t i s m e r e l y 'individual'  might  simply  religious  be  a  i n this product  way,  The  impact  of  friends  of d i f f e r i n g  a n d age g r o u p s e a r l i e r religion  found  at  the  Agnew  the aggregate  a t t r i b u t e s t h a t j u s t happen t o  (1987: 4 ) . C o n c e i v e d  'composition explains, product of  covary with  location"  and n e i g h b o u r s  support  concentrations  of the  t o be 1971  important. convention  does  not  s u g g e s t a c o m p o s i t i o n e f f e c t . The r e g i o n a l c l e a v a g e was s i g n i f i c a n t f o r b o t h r e l i g i o u s g r o u p s on t h e f i n a l b a l l o t a n d f o r C a t h o l i c s on the  first.  every  This  region  support  from  was t r u e  does  but  n o t mean  one  (Annapolis  Catholics  f o r Buchanan.  Cape B r e t o n ,  that  than  religion  Valley)  he d i d f r o m  I t should  also  be s t r e s s e d t h a t  simply  Even  delegates, Protestants  t o Buchanan and C a t h o l i c s p r e f e r r e d Doucet.  p r o b l e m f o r D o u c e t was  cannot  more  excluding  does n o t remove t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f r e l i g i o n .  gave m a j o r i t y s u p p o r t  i n fact  received  P r o t e s t a n t s . The r e v e r s e  when c o n s i d e r a t i o n was l i m i t e d t o m a i n l a n d  were  Doucet  9  In  t h e only r e g i o n i n which a m a j o r i t y o f t h e d e l e g a t e s  were C a t h o l i c ,  The  was u n i m p o r t a n t .  Catholic.  t h a t so few o f t h e m a i n l a n d  Doucet's  be a t t r i b u t e d  strong  showing  delegates  among C a t h o l i c s  to the religious  composition  largely  i n 1980.  o f Cape  Breton. The  same  pattern  was  evident  Regional  I t w i l l be a r g u e d l a t e r t h a t i t i s p o s s i b l e t o c o n s i d e r s u p p o r t f o r Buchanan f r o m A n n a p o l i s V a l l e y d e l e g a t e s as a v a r i a n t o f f r i e n d s and n e i g h b o u r s support. 9  158 divisions  remained  striking  (and  significant)  even  when  c o n s i d e r a t i o n was l i m i t e d t o a s i n g l e r e l i g i o u s g r o u p . The r e g i o n a l c l e a v a g e was n o t a p r o d u c t o f d i f f e r i n g c o n c e n t r a t i o n s o f C a t h o l i c s and  Protestants  support  was  i n different  higher  f o r Cameron  among C a t h o l i c s . The o n l y final  ballot  Shore  supported  neighbours.  Cameron e v e n more these  The  from  effect  the  either.  f o r both r e l i g i o u s groups. Catholic  Cape  Breton  Valley  s t r o n g l y than were  and  their  the strongest  a n d may h a v e s h a r e d t h e i r the Catholic  MacLean  they  were  1986  The  candidate's (see H a l i f a x  convention  not  indicate  The r e g i o n a l c l e a v a g e  was  significant  eliminate the r e l i g i o u s  P r o t e s t a n t s were  cleavage.  Cape  as l i k e l y  Breton,  supportive  t o support  Cowan's  candidacy  Cowan as was  only  s t r o n g e r among P r o t e s t a n t s . interaction  It  diminishes  a  Once more t h e e x c l u s i o n o f p r e d o m i n a n t l y  of the r e l i g i o u s  and r e g i o n a l v a r i a b l e s a t  the t h r e e conventions serves t o u n d e r l i n e t h e independent region.  Mooney  do  d i d not  M a c L e a n . On  marginally  South  Protestant  M a i n l a n d d e l e g a t e s who were a l s o C a t h o l i c were e x t r e m e l y o f MacLean w h i l e  region  June 12 1980: 7 ) .  results  composition  the Annapolis  delegates  r e l u c t a n c e t o support  Chronicle Herald,  i n each  among P r o t e s t a n t s a n d f o r MacLean  when C a t h o l i c s f r o m  Of c o u r s e  Nonetheless,  e x c e p t i o n s t o t h i s t r e n d o c c u r r e d on t h e  supporters at the convention supposed  areas.  is  clear  the pattern  that of  the  friends  religious  d i s m i s s r e l i g i o n as an a r t i f a c t  and  voting.  impact o f  neighbours  effect  Still,  cannot  one  o f r e g i o n . G e n e r a l l y , t h e tendency  o f P r o t e s t a n t s t o g i v e d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e s u p p o r t t o P r o t e s t a n t s and  159 C a t h o l i c s t o C a t h o l i c s was p r e s e n t . I f o n l y C a t h o l i c s v o t e d ,  Doucet  w o u l d have b e e n c h o s e n l e a d e r i n 1971 a n d MacLean m i g h t h a v e won i n 1980. 45%  I f o n l y P r o t e s t a n t s v o t e d , Cowan w o u l d have h a d a r e s p e c t a b l e  of the vote  cast  by  i n 1986. I n d e e d , he t o o k  mainland  Protestants.  Religion,  almost  half  then,  was  of the votes by  no  means  incidental. The  i n t e r a c t i o n o f age a n d r e g i o n i n 1971 r e v e a l s much o f t h e  convention the bulk  dynamic.  Only  of convention  f o r delegates  goers,  and s i x t y ,  was r e g i o n s i g n i f i c a n t l y a s s o c i a t e d  w i t h v o t e . E v e n on t h e m a i n l a n d D o u c e t . Most  between t h i r t y  older delegates,•  most d e l e g a t e s u n d e r 30 p r e f e r r e d except  i n Cape B r e t o n ,  voted f o r  Buchanan. Age  divisions  significantly  were  less  associated with Regional  significant  i n 1980. R e g i o n  v o t i n g among a l l age g r o u p s  three  ballots.  1986,  a s i n 1980, t h e r e g i o n a l c l e a v a g e was s i g n i f i c a n t  groups.  Unlike  effect.  Examination  thirty  preferences  1980, however, o f each  this region  were u n m i t i g a t e d  appears  t o mask  showed  gave Cowan a m a j o r i t y e v e r y w h e r e s a v e  that  was  on a l l  by age.  In  f o r a l l age  a s t r o n g age  delegates  Cape B r e t o n .  under  I n Cape  B r e t o n , MacLean's i m p r e s s i v e s h o w i n g was u n m a r r e d b y meagre s u p p o r t from  t h e youth.  support  does  Candidates  As Cowan's o v e r w h e l m i n g  n o t compensate  defeat  f o r weakness  with  i n Nova S c o t i a d i d n o t b u i l d w i n n i n g  indicates, older  youth  delegates.  coalitions  on t h e  b a c k s o f t h e young d e l e g a t e s . The young  d e l e g a t e s seem t o have an  almost  conventions.  mischievous Regional  impact  at the three  considerations  highlight  the nature  of  t h e age  160 cleavage  at  the  three  conventions.  p r e f e r r e d by M a i n l a n d y o u t h ,  In  1986,  although  Cowan  h i s youth support c o u l d not  was  penetrate  Cape B r e t o n . MacLean's p r o p o r t i o n a t e weakness among y o u n g d e l e g a t e s in  1986  stands  in  1980.  i n contrast to his r e l a t i v e l y  P e r h a p s h i s 1980  weakness among t h e o v e r share  of  the  over  youth  sixty  sixty  support  reached  m e t r o H a l i f a x and o n l y e x c e e d e d 10% support from t h e aged l a r g e l y seemed most carry  a majority of  Valley.  However,  exceeded ballot the  important  by  only  support  t h e r e was  no  recalcitrance Cape  pattern. candidate  a  For instance, religious  friends  and  ballot  friends  from  in  and  youth  neighbours  high  ballot  was  neighbours  alone at  i n the each  but his  Of  of  his  27%  of  votes  their  home  saw  the  in  support on  f o r Buchanan.  by  the  pluralities  10  i t s voting Cape  island  Breton  delegates  r e g i o n s were a l s o  regions.  this  to counteract  c o n s i s t e n c y of  cast  Doucet  youth  support  Age  Annapolis  course,  convention,  Mooney and Cameron won  the  final  delegates.  or even r e l i g i o n . Other  groups  ballot,  as  o t h e r r e g i o n . Cameron's  everywhere  Breton,  older  Thornhill's plurality Doucet  Cape  majority  r e g a r d l e s s o f age  vote  from  stands  every  won  i n one  understood  final  o f younger d e l e g a t e s t o vote  Breton  On  the  a mainland  where t h e  youth in  better  support  f a i l e d t o s p r e a d t o Cape B r e t o n .  i n 1971  the  is  d e l e g a t e s . On  vote  s t r o n g youth  loyal.  f r o m a l l ages  However,  in  and  1971,  i n m e t r o H a l i f a x masked m a j o r i t y s u p p o r t f o r and  plurality  effect,  then,  support can  be  from  Catholics.  limited.  The  However, i f  A g a i n , B u c h a n a n ' s A n n a p o l i s V a l l e y s u p p o r t may be t r e a t e d as a v a r i a n t o f ' f r i e n d s and n e i g h b o u r s . ' The y o u t h o f t h i s r e g i o n were more s u p p o r t i v e o f Buchanan t h a n o f D o u c e t . 1 0  H a l i f a x p r o p e r i s e l i m i n a t e d f r o m c o n s i d e r a t i o n , T h o r n h i l l was a b l e to  o u t p o l l D o u c e t e v e n among t h e y o u t h  and C a t h o l i c s .  The o t h e r s i g n i f i c a n t g r o u p v a r i a b l e s — e d u c a t i o n a n d c l a s s i n 1971,  income  1980—  modify  and s o c i a l  insider  the regional  i n 1986, a n d d e l e g a t e  trends  slightly.  Breton regardless of education or class was  outpolled  by  Buchanan  among  carried  the university  course,  a s was shown e a r l i e r ,  from  Catholics.)  wealthiest  Cowan  mainlanders,  educated  won  him, i n d i c a t i n g  largely  regional.  a  that  middle every  was due l a r g e l y  majority  insiders'  of no  carried  Cape  On t h e m a i n l a n d  i n almost  but had almost  Cape B r e t o n d e l e g a t e s . ' S o c i a l support  this  level.  t h e upper  vote  Doucet  type i n  class,  he but  r e g i o n . (Of  t o h i s support  votes  cast  by  the  support  from  wealthy  i n Cape B r e t o n d i d n o t  h i s s t r e n g t h on t h i s  variable  was  162 T a b l e 5-11 I n d e x o f N e i g h b o u r h o o d S u p p o r t b y E d u c a t i o n a n d Age# EDUCATION AGE Less than High School  High School  University Degree  Under 30  30-60  O v e r 60  Buchanan  +3 (+31)*  +31* (+24)*  -9 (-5)  + 14 ( + 14)  +2* (+17)*  + 14 ( + 17)  Doucet  +35 (+26) *  +29* (+32)*  +34 (+34)*  +33 (+23)  +32* (+38)*  +33 (+45)  —  +48*  + 62*  -9  + 67*  —  (--)  +33* (+15)*  +31* (+21)*  +24* (+2*)  +31* (+15)*  + 47* (+13)*  —  +18*  +3*  + 9*  + 11*  + 3*  +54* (+45)*  +42* (+39) *  +46* (+38)*  +35* ( + 46) *  +55* ( + 36) *  +27* (+26) *  Mooney  —  +35*  +41*  +33*  +29*  +71*  Cowan  -16  -9  +21*  + 30*  + 11*  -28  MacLean  +28*  +35*  +37*  +35*  + 34*  +32*  Thornhill Cameron Maclnnis MacLean  c a n d i d a t e s ' o v e r a l l share o f t h e v o t e from t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f s u p p o r t g i v e n h i m b y d e l e g a t e s f r o m h i s home a r e a . The home a r e a for Doucet a n d MacLean i s Cape B r e t o n , f o r Cameron Eastern M a i n l a n d , Mooney S o u t h S h o r e , M a c l n n i s H a l i f a x M e t r o . Cowan's i s c o n s i d e r e d H a l i f a x M e t r o o v e r 100, 000, T h o r n h i l l ' s M e t r o H a l i f a x 1000-100,000. F i n a l l y t h e A n n a p o l i s V a l l e y i s t r e a t e d a s B u c h a n a n ' s home a r e a . A n e g a t i v e number i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e c a n d i d a t e d i d b e t t e r o v e r a l l t h a n he d i d w i t h h i s n e i g h b o u r s . A p o s i t i v e number i n d i c a t e s t h a t h i s s u p p o r t f r o m h i s home a r e a e x c e e d s h i s o v e r a l l s u p p o r t . The numbers i n b r a c k e t s a r e t h e f i g u r e s f r o m t h e f i n a l b a l l o t . An a s t e r i s k i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e v a l u e o f c h i s q u a r e f o r t h e g e o g r a p h i c d i v i s i o n i s s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e .05 l e v e l o r b e t t e r . Delegate type d i d not e l i m i n a t e t h e r e g i o n a l p a t t e r n o f South Shore support of  f o r Mooney on t h e f i r s t  Cape B r e t o n e r s  with  Cape  constituency  two b a l l o t s  nor the l o y a l t y  f o r MacLean. E v e n t h o u g h Cameron d i d much b e t t e r  Breton delegates  ex-officio he  was  delegates  still  unable  than  he  t o win a  did  with  majority.  163 Ex-officio  delegates  were  also  susceptible  to  the  friends  neighbours  e f f e c t . A t t h e o t h e r c o n v e n t i o n s d e l e g a t e t y p e had  impact  the  on  significant types  of  regional  and  the  patterns  delegates.  ex-officio  delegates  neighbours  pull  cleavage.  It  is  were  regional  virtually  difficult  were  than t h e i r  The  less  to  cleavage  affected  by  the  less  remained  identical  maintain,  and  for  then,  both that  friends  and  constituency brethren.  Attitudes The  v e r y e x i s t e n c e o f an a t t i t u d i n a l c l e a v a g e d e p e n d s on  presence  of actual  agreement  then  i m p o s s i b l e . As any  50 of  I f the delegates are i n general  attitudinally  T a b l e 5-12  based  shows, s u c h  voting  S c o t i a n c o n v e n t i o n s . A consensus  of disagreement  just  21.6, low  i n 1980,  the  party.  cleavage.  25.7  index  among t h e d e l e g a t e s . On  and  candidates  Using  c o n s e n s u s , (1988: 289) and  12  There  of  was  Whether  convention waged  18  i n 1986  then  these  candidates i s another The  16.0.  ample  o f 30  up  on  campaigns  similar  clearly  of  were  an  to 6 of  divided  attitudinal  utilized  by  the  Generally,  the  matter. suggest  campaigns  more  p o l i c y agreement t h a n f o r d i s a g r e e m e n t s . pick  scores  level  m i n o r i t y views t h a t  differences  of 0 to  i s s u e s i n 1971,  possibility  at  indicates  average 30%  is  exist  a range  Whitehorn's  14 had  cleavage  agreement d i d n o t  ( p e r f e c t consensus) the t h r e e conventions r e c o r d  indicate 16  an  o f t h e Nova  the degree  disagreement.  the  different  issue  not. notable  f o r wide  spread  Delegates, then c o u l d  positions  on  the  part  of  not the  164 candidates. However, surprisingly, on t h e f i r s t  an  has  attitudinal  shown  that  division  in  c o u l d be  1971,  somewhat  observed.  Indeed,  b a l l o t e i g h t o f t h e t h i r t y a t t i t u d i n a l v a r i a b l e s were  significantly nine  Adamson  associated with  variables  particularly  on  the  salient  F r e n c h / E n g l i s h . On  second.  The  issues  that  on  the  voting while  first  ballot,  t h a t Quebec s h o u l d h a v e s p e c i a l  this  was  the  case  disagreement could  be  d e l e g a t e s who  for  appeared considered  d i d not  agree  •recognition i n Confederation,  who  f e l t no s p e c i a l a t t e n t i o n s h o u l d be p a i d t o Quebec and who  believed  that  gave  French  plurality views  of t h e i r  and  who  provincial Doucet.  Canadians  should  support  agreed  that  h a v e no  t o Buchanan. i t was  governments i n F r e n c h  This  trend  special  continued  privileges  T h o s e who  a l l right  delivered on  the  to  held speak  the  opposing to  Anglo  sizable pluralities  second  ballot  with  to the  p l u r a l i t i e s h a r d e n i n g i n t o m a j o r i t i e s . I n e a c h c a s e , most d e l e g a t e s h e l d the p o s i t i o n  from  w h i c h B u c h a n a n drew more  C e r t a i n other areas of disagreement  c o u l d be  l i b e r a l v e r s u s c o n s e r v a t i v e c o n t e x t . On t h e f i r s t won  pluralities  right on  from  t o seek s t r i k e  delegates  agreeing  that  considered i n a ballot,  employers  have  the much  s o c i a l w e l f a r e , and t h a t government s h o u l d i n t e r f e r e l e s s  with  opposing  Doucet views.  took The  t h a t government  Buchanan  spends t o o  business.  injunctions,  support.  a m a j o r i t y of votes  final ballot  saw  c a s t by  delegates  with  B u c h a n a n ' s p l u r a l i t i e s become  majorities. The  only  other  variables  associated  with  voting  in  a  165 s i g n i f i c a n t way d e a l t w i t h t h e i d e a o f M a r i t i m e ballot,  Buchanan  won  a 46% p l u r a l i t y  from  u n i o n . On t h e f i r s t  delegates  who  d i d not  want Nova S c o t i a t o e n t e r i n t o f o r m a l e c o n o m i c c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h t h e other  Maritime  delegates Buchanan Scotia  provinces.  desirous win  a  of  such  majority  took  a  from those  Perhaps  from  delegates  partially,  holding divergent  then,  certainly  The  that  Liberal  attitudinal  division.  disagreement  over  ballots  final  ballot  saw  believed  that  The who  while  Nova  D o u c e t won a  opinions. over  the  Doucet  majority  held rather 'conservative'  1980  from  was, a t l e a s t  f o r t h e ' c o n s e r v a t i v e ' wing o f t h e p a r t y . I t  indicates  Conservatives  o f 40%  union,  Buchanan's v i c t o r y  a victory  plurality  cooperation.  s h o u l d e n t e r no k i n d o f M a r i t i m e  majority  two  Doucet  convention  was  Interestingly,  of  Nova  Scotian  views. not as  marked  in  by  1971,  as  much  there  was  t h e p l a c e o f Quebec i n c o n f e d e r a t i o n . The  showed a c l e a r  preference  f o r Cameron  from  final  delegates  who d i d n o t f e e l t h a t Quebec s h o u l d have s p e c i a l r e c o g n i t i o n . I n a slightly  contrary  delegates  who  vein,  Cameron's  d i d not agree  that  support government  was  stronger  spends  among  t o o much on  s o c i a l w e l f a r e . MacLean d i d much b e t t e r w i t h d e l e g a t e s who f e l t t o o much was s p e n t . the  first  o n l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h v o t i n g on  ballot.  The  remaining  association Specifically, responsive  T h i s v a r i a b l e was  with  issues  vote  were  delegates to  the  which related  displayed to  internal  who b e l i e v e d t h a t p a r t y  wishes  of  the  party  a  significant  party  matters.  l e a d e r s had been membership  voted  166 disproportionately much more  is  a l l three  successful in attracting  were l e s s This  f o r Cameron on  impressed not  with the  surprising  the  ballots.  support  responsiveness  when  one  recalls  of  MacLean  was  delegates  who  of the p a r t y l e a d e r s . that  Cameron  o v e r w h e l m i n g s u p p o r t o f t h e e x - o f f i c i o d e l e g a t e s and was the  'establishment' The  other  delegates 'grass minor  b e l i e v e d the  variable  party  r o o t s . ' This mainly  considered  attempted  h i e r a r c h y had  a f f e c t e d the  to  lost  levels  measure  whether  contact  with  of support  the  f o r the  candidates.  v o t i n g at the supporters least,  candidate  variables  used  attitudinal  impact  d i f f e r e n c e s had v e r y l i t t l e  c o n v e n t i o n . No  one  o f an  The  attitudinal  1980  of  the  evidence  from in  difficult  to  measured  believed  that  received  72%  a  voting  support the  Breton  and  likely  reflected  to  support have  from more  do  d i f f e r e n c e s . One  ovens who  The  the  strong  be  disagreed, With  region's island  delegates power  very  not  provide  also  minimal.  than  of  majority  should  disposition.  to that  MacLean's  survey  At  cleavage.  division.  coke  majority  1980  another.  on  separate  a s s o c i a t e d w i t h v o t i n g , but  from those  most v a l u a b l e  more  government  SYSCO  of  v o t i n g i n 198 6 was  i n these  regional  the  holding  slightly  much  those  the  o f a t t i t u d e s on  read  impact  c l e a r p a t t e r n seemed t o  S i x v a r i a b l e s were s i g n i f i c a n t l y  those  the  candidate.  internal  Obviously,  likely  had  the  of  the  only ovens  economy,  this  b a s e . MacLean  who he  wanted  the  did  from  issues  delegates  closed. but  i t is  MacLean 59%  from  in  Cape  division attracted  provincial those  in  167 disagreement delegates  (66% v e r s u s  who a g r e e d  a l e a d e r , who f e l t who  57%) a n d d i d p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y b e t t e r among  that a convention  t h a t youth  d i d not b e l i e v e that  leader,  a n d who  following  supported  a Liberal  way t o c h o o s e  h a d an a d e q u a t e v o i c e i n t h e p a r t y ,  a l lparty  members  the f i r i n g  d e g r e e : MacLean won m a j o r i t y s u p p o r t  of  the position  should  vote  of Conservative  v i c t o r y . A l l of these  of  they  was t h e b e s t  attitudinal  coherent  appointees  d i f f e r e n c e s were  from d e l e g a t e s  simply  regardless  h e l d on any o f t h e v a r i a b l e s m e a s u r e d .  The C o n s e r v a t i v e c o n v e n t i o n s t a n d s o u t a s t h e o n l y where  f o rthe  disagreements  fashion. Liberal  appear  related  convention  to voting  i n any  d i s a g r e e m e n t s were b a s e d l a r g e l y on  168  Policy  Table 5-12 C o n s e n s u s : P e r c e n t i n Agreement and 1 971 %agree C.I .  Consensus  1980 %agree C .1 .  1/More power f o r t h e 1 4 29 64 provinces + 2/Special recognition 27 43* 23* f o r Quebec 3/Favour u n r e s t r i c t e d 36 24 26 r i g h t to s t r i k e 4 / E m p l o y e r s have r i g h t t o seek s t r i k e i n j u n 65* 1 5 ctions — 5/Too much s p e n t on 59* 10 60* social welfare 6/Right to 82 73 23 foreigh capital 7/Government must h e l p 93 43 93 helpless 8/Pay w e l f a r e o n l y t o 95 45 95 needy 9/Government s h o u l d i n t e r f e r e l e s s with — 59* 9 business 10/Offshore a j o i n t 86 responsibility — — 11/More f e d e r a l money 83 94 44 f o r poor p r o v i n c e s 12/N.S. s h o u l d c o n t r o l 40 1 4 90 Offshore 29 10 40 13/Favor M a r i t i m e u n i o n 14/SYSCO o v e n s s h o u l d r e m a i n open — — -15/Negotiate f r e e r trade — with U.S. — — 16/Reduce U.S. cultural 58 8 influence — 17/No f i r i n g of Tory appointees — — — 18/Pay no a t t e n t i o n t o 2 48* Quebec demands — 19/No s p e c i a l p r i v i l e g e s 26 76* for Francophones — 20/Use f r e n c h t o d e a l w i t h 15 35* p r o v i n c i a l governments — 21/N.S. c o n t r o l e n v i r o n 10 60 mental l e g i s l a t i o n — + Not a l l a t t i t u d i n a l q u e s t i o n s a r e r e p o r t e d . * S i g n i f i c a n t l y associated with voting.  21  Index 1986 %agree C .1 43*  7  7  26  24  1 4  —  —  —  —  —  9  46  4  32  —  —  43  —  —  45  —  —  —  —  --  36  —  —  33  —  —  36 21  —  —  —  30*  20  —  35  1 5  —  —  —  —  50*  —  — ——  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  —  26  24  0  —  169 internal  party  generalization. of a t t i t u d e s at  the  base.  matters The  1 1  replicate  the  religion  o r age.  conventions  these  earlier  Indeed,  after  Stanfield)  had  Quebecois,  in  aftermath Scotian  the  been a  Doucet's  of  thrashed  climate  of  frustration.  Or  Catholics  and  an  attitudinal  friends  Acadian  significant  may  and  ancestry  might  t a k e an  convention  federal  election  'French'  T h i s was to  not be  by  power  a time  have  anti-Quebec  in  a  simply  neighbours,  Scotian Conservatives  (Robert a  and  French in  the  i n w h i c h Nova  supportive  of  French  have p r o v i d e d them w i t h a t a r g e t f o r  opposition  prompted d e l e g a t e s t o take Actually,  had  Nova  likely  r i g h t s . D o u c e t ' s c a n d i d a c y may their  that voting  differences on  growing  were  importance  must remember t h a t t h i s  o f t h e F.L.Q. c r i s i s . Conservatives  based  the  to  but  d i d n o t l i k e him t o  hero  themselves  low,  have  attitudinal  o r an a n t i - F r e n c h p o s i t i o n . One place  lend  i s very  might  divisions  s p u r r e d some d e l e g a t e s who  took  not  conclusion i s that  convention  However,  1 2  do  general  at L i b e r a l  Conservative  and  such  to  Doucet  may  itself  have  positions.  attitudinal  divisions  existed  P r o t e s t a n t s . C a t h o l i c s were more l i k e l y  between  to b e l i e v e  One must a g a i n keep i n m i n d t h a t t h e a t t i t u d i n a l q u e s t i o n s d i f f e r e d f r o m one c o n v e n t i o n t o t h e o t h e r and were n o t s e l e c t e d t o map i n t e r n a l i d e o l o g i c a l d i v i s i o n s . They a r e p r e s e n t e d m e r e l y t o show t h e degree to which delegates who supported different c a n d i d a t e s h e l d d i f f e r e n t o p i n i o n s on t h e i s s u e s m e a s u r e d . 1 1  I t also suggests t h a t f u t u r e s t u d i e s of Maritime l e a d e r s h i p c o n v e n t i o n s m i g h t p r o b e a t t i t u d i n a l d i f f e r e n c e s more d e e p l y . The i n f o r m a t i o n c o l l e c t e d n a t i o n a l l y and a t c o n v e n t i o n s i n B.C. and A l b e r t a i s much r i c h e r t h a n t h e M a r i t i m e d a t a . A d e e p e r p r o b e o f a t t i t u d e s might a l s o p r o v i d e e m p i r i c a l support f o r the c o n v e n t i o n a l wisdom t h a t t h e r e i s l i t t l e d i f f e r e n t between t h e C o n s e r v a t i v e s and t h e L i b e r a l s i n t h e r e g i o n . Or i t m i g h t n o t ! 1 2  170 that  Quebec  permissable  should to  have  address  English  They were l e s s l i k e l y t o paid  to  Quebec  or  special  recognition  provincial  and  that  governments  in  i t  is  French.  a g r e e t h a t no s p e c i a l a t t e n t i o n s h o u l d be  that  Francophones  should  have  no  special  p r i v i l e g e s . T h i s p r o v i d e s some e v i d e n c e t h a t t h e a t t i t u d i n a l v o t i n g divisions  did  replicate  the  religious  division.  a s s o c i a t i o n o f s u c h o p i n i o n s w i t h v o t i n g may a Catholic opinion  c a n d i d a t e . Without  between  different  the  such  religious  voting patterns.  of  a candidate the d i f f e r e n c e s  in  might  were  older  coincidence Doucet  and  delegates.  Once  b e t w e e n membership issue  have  significant  b e t w e e n Cape B r e t o n e r s  young  spend  to  from  criticize  association and  and  too  again  then,  of these  Cape  Breton  mainlanders on  differences  a  support  were  spending  for  agreement.  were  or  Doucet.  Indeed,  welfare  and  whether  surprisingly,  regulation.  Support and  for  when  majority  him  neighbours  support  willing  Again,  the  friends  from  these  v o t i n g more  examination  l i m i t e d t o d e l e g a t e s who Catholics,  found  on t h e q u e s t i o n o f w h e t h e r  social  represent friends  i s s u e s was or  to  a t t i t u d e s with v o t i n g r e p l i c a t e s the  support  attitudinal  significant  was  government d e p e n d e n t Cape B r e t o n were l e s s  d e l e g a t e s t h e n , may than  delegates  there  i n a g r o u p more l i k e l y  attitudinal  much  government  neighbours  in  pro-Quebec/French p o s i t i o n s  g o v e r n m e n t s s h o u l d i n t e r f e r e l e s s w i t h b u s i n e s s . Not delegates  resulted  positions.  Moreover,  governments  not  It i s also true that  were s i g n i f i c a n t l y more l i k e l y t o t a k e than  significant  to the presence  groups  owe  The  of  were e i t h e r f o r Doucet  the from was  171 present  without  exception.  Regardless  of a t t i t u d e ,  delegates  were C a t h o l i c s a n d / o r Cape B r e t o n e r s d e l i v e r e d a m a j o r i t y t o D o u c e t . S i m i l a r l y , when o n l y P r o t e s t a n t considered,  the  practically  pattern  of  u n i v e r s a l . Only  majority  of votes  m a i n l a n d e r s o v e r 30 were  support  on one i s s u e  who  f o r Buchanan  d i d he  fail  to  was  receive  h a l f t h e v o t e s f r o m b o t h s i d e s a n d t h a t f a i l u r e was by t h e s l i m m e s t of p o s s i b l e  margins. Given the l a c k of p o l i c y disagreement i n the  campaign  and  the t r a d i t i o n a l  lack  of  politics,  i t t h u s seems r e a s o n a b l e t o c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e a t t i t u d i n a l  d i s a g r e e m e n t a t t h e 1971 C o n s e r v a t i v e in  the context  that  ideology  i n Nova  convention i s best  Scotian  understood  o f t h e r e l i g i o u s and f r i e n d s and n e i g h b o u r s  marked t h a t  voting  convention.  Discussion This  examination of delegate  doubt t h a t  support patterns  f r i e n d s and n e i g h b o u r s  support  leaves  little  and r e l i g i o u s d i v i s i o n s  were more s t r o n g l y r e l a t e d t o v o t i n g t h a n were any o t h e r  variables.  Multiple regression  factors i n  the  support  of  analysis reveals that the strongest  almost  a l l candidates  were  regional  and  that  s i g n i f i c a n t r e l i g i o u s d i v i s i o n s e x i s t e d on t h e f i n a l b a l l o t o f e a c h convention.  I t i s quite clear that  support  exists  friends  and n e i g h b o u r s  The it  was  f o r considering  region Nova  was p r e e m i n e n t a n d much  Scotian  conventions  context.  nature of the r e g i o n a l cleavage obviously  'favourite  home r e g i o n s .  This  son' s u p p o r t . was  in a  Candidates  particularly  true  drew  indicates that  best  from  o f Cape B r e t o n .  their On t h e  172 second  ballot  i n 1971, D o u c e t won 81% o f t h e Cape B r e t o n v o t e . On  the t h i r d b a l l o t  i n 1980, MacLean won 75% a n d i n 1986 he won 96% o f  the i s l a n d votes. Breton  Indeed,  r e s i d e n c y was  multiple regression indicates that  t h e major f a c t o r  i n support  f o r each  Cape  of the  Cape B r e t o n c a n d i d a t e s . Cape B r e t o n e r s were e x t r e m e l y s u p p o r t i v e o f t h e i r l o c a l c a n d i d a t e s . T h i s tendency Cape  Breton. Mainland  of  was b y no means r e s t r i c t e d t o  support  from  candidates generally attracted t h e i r highest their  home r e g i o n s a s w e l l .  level  I n 1971, T h o r n h i l l ' s  o n l y r e g i o n a l p l u r a l i t y came f r o m m e t r o H a l i f a x .  I n 1980, M a c l n n i s  d i d b e s t i n t h e c a p i t a l r e g i o n , w h i l e Mooney won a m a j o r i t y o n l y i n his  home r e g i o n o f t h e S o u t h  reveals that of these  h i s highest support Buchanan pronounced  region  Multiple  'home a r e a ' was t h e m a j o r f a c t o r  c a n d i d a t e s . Even  apparent.  Shore.  from  and  the Eastern Mainland  and  F o r Cowan,  i n support  Cameron, on t h e f i n a l  Cowan  friends  regression analysis  were-  only  neighbours  h i s lack  d i s g u i s e d support  the  of support  i n the c i t y  two b a l l o t s , h a d  delegates.  candidates  support  was  Halifax  simply  (over  100,000).  readily  i n t h e metro  Halifax  of Halifax  d i d not spread  neighbours  support  His friends  t o Dartmouth  for Thornhill  f o r whom  not  itself.  a c t u a l l y won 52% o f t h e v o t e s c a s t b y d e l e g a t e s l i v i n g of  or t h e suburbs.  Cowan  i n the c i t y  and n e i g h b o u r s  was a l s o  f o r each  support  F r i e n d s and  strengthened  when t h e  c i t y o f H a l i f a x was s e p a r a t e d f r o m t h e m e t r o H a l i f a x r e g i o n . He won 84%  of  the  Dartmouth,  vote  from  the  part  b u t was n o t a s p o p u l a r  of  the  among  region  delegates  that  included  from  Halifax  173 itself. Buchanan neighbours of  support.  birth,  Halifax. else.  stands  Cape He  lack to  claims  regional  that  on  If broadly  the  side,  other the  the  experiencing  friends  region  by  winning  and  of  support  his  for this  him  of  aspect  applied  i n 1971  support  was  may  candidates  friends  friends  validly  and  his. and  o f Key's t r e a t m e n t  then  of  perhaps  past  or  f o r Buchanan. H i s  is  familial of  whose On  the  neighbours claims  treated  some s u c h  of f r i e n d s  some f o r m  be  make.  neighbours  distinguish  metro  everywhere  support  than  and  his region  residence,  virtually  stronger  c o u l d not  importance  present  in  to claim t i e s to various other regions,  candidates  the  of  regional  were  friends  both  neighbours  other  loyalties  i t i s possible to  B u c h a n a n . One  not  least  and  presence  notion  then  emphasized  of  in  Buchanan's l a c k o f e x p l i c i t  enabled  the  had  Breton,  attributed  support  He  compensated  His  positive  alone  strongest  support  and  ties.  friends  more for  neighbours If  and  this  is  neighbours  regions  were  the  A n n a p o l i s V a l l e y and t h e S o u t h S h o r e , r e g i o n s t h a t e s s e n t i a l l y meet a t D i g b y . As  a student  the  area  h i s e l d e s t son  His  support  and  neighbours  and  neighbours  there then,  see  B u c h a n a n w o r k e d i n D i g b y , h i s w i f e was was  born  c o u l d be  effect  (for a  Parker,  1982:  The  i n that area friends  and  of the  (Kavanagh,  1988:  i n t e r p r e t e d as a k i n d o f  similar 259).  s e r v e s t o make more c o m p r e h e n s i b l e delegates  there  treatment  Such  an  of  135). friends  friends  interpretation  Buchanan's s u p p o r t  from  and also  from C a t h o l i c  province.  neighbours  effect  spilled  into  adjacent  174 regions.  Thornhill,Mooney  support  in their  and M a c l n n i s  home r e g i o n w h i l e t h e i r  from t h e a d j a c e n t A n n a p o l i s V a l l e y . the  Northumberland  Shore  a n d MacLean,  the Eastern  likely  Strait  from  best  s h o w i n g came  Cameron's b a s e e x t e n d e d  the Eastern Mainland  on t h e f i r s t  ballot,  when t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t o do s o e x i s t s ,  best i n  are l i k e l y  a c a n d i d a t e f r o m t h e i r home r e g i o n . They a r e a l s o q u i t e  t o support  friends There  a candidate  from  an a d j a c e n t  region.  Candidates  t e r m s , c a n be  considered  and neighbours.  i s , however  a  possibility  that  conventions  i n Nova  S c o t i a a r e i n f l u e n c e d by r e g i o n a l d i v i s i o n s which t r a n s c e n d and n e i g h b o u r s certainly regions  that  support. Regional d i v i s i o n s  suggest  friends  provided  candidate  from  to  hampered ballot.  exceptional  by  as  whether  opposed  to  the presence  The u n i q u e  regional  of  Bretoners  and t h e r e l a t i v e support  for this  Nova  Few  Scotia  mainland  except  when  a  But i t i s n o t as c l e a r  Breton  support  and n e i g h b o u r s  Cape  potential  of the competition.  support.  pictures  Breton  p a t t e r n o f Cape B r e t o n  difference  some  Cape  of a  i n mainland  friends  i n q u i t e t h e same f a s h i o n . The  friends  structure  offers  voting  c a n be u n d e r s t o o d  determine  sectionalism  and neighbours  t h e a r e a was on t h e b a l l o t .  Cape B r e t o n  ability  along  t o the North  d i d h i s mainland  do b e s t w i t h d e l e g a t e s who, i n g e o g r a p h i c their  second  strongest  Mainland.  Delegates, to support  a l l had t h e i r  influence  economic  politics  candidate  v o t i n g may  The d i s t i n c t  represents  on  A  of the  h e l d b y Cape  deprivation of that  suggestion.  every  represent a  regardless  identity  is  convention  region  without  a  175 Cape Breton candidate would be necessary t o f u l l y answer t h i s type of q u e s t i o n . The  division  historical  between  resonance  convention. The  and  selection  Cape  Breton  actually  had  / Mainland  Liberal  division.  l e a d e r s h i p : W.S.  an  the  impact  mainland on  a  has  national  of Mackenzie King, the l o n g e s t s e r v i n g  Prime M i n i s t e r i n Canadian h i s t o r y , may Breton  and  Two  be a t t r i b u t a b l e t o a Cape  Nova S c o t i a n s c o n t e s t e d the  Fielding  from  the  mainland  1919  and  D.D.  McKenzie from Cape Breton. R e g e n s t r i e f has r e f e r r e d t o the q u e s t i o n of p e r s o n a l animosity between [ F i e l d i n g ] and McKenzie who was from Cape Breton I s l a n d and t h e r e f o r e a n t i p a t h e t i c t o a mainlander. Cape Bretoners' still r e c a l l t h a t McKenzie r e s e n t e d F i e l d i n g ' s p o s i t i o n of prominence under L a u r i e r . . . . T h e convention was h i s chance t o get even. When he withdrew a f t e r the second b a l l o t he i n s t r u c t e d h i s supporters t o vote f o r King (1963: 343). Since  McKenzie  had  153  votes  on  the  first  ballot  and  only  people would have had t o change t h e i r vote t o e l e c t F i e l d i n g King, t h i s i n t r a p r o v i n c i a l s p l i t was  20  over  probably q u i t e s i g n i f i c a n t .  Returning t o recent conventions,  other d i v i s i o n s were a l s o  important; p a r t i c u l a r l y r e l i g i o n .  Invariably, Protestant delegates  o f f e r e d d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e support  t o the c a n d i d a c i e s of Buchanan,  T h o r n h i l l , Cameron, and Cowan. Each P r o t e s t a n t candidate r e c e i v e d more support  from P r o t e s t a n t s than C a t h o l i c s . C a t h o l i c  gave d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e support  t o the C a t h o l i c  delegates  candidates Doucet,  Maclnnis, MacLean and Mooney. R e l i g i o n remains important Scotian  politics.  Candidates  did  best  with  delegates  i n Nova who  in  176 religious  terms  The  totals.  that  he  Similarly,  This  win  only  convincing  friends  their  home  religious  groups.  MacLean,  won As  both  Thornhill's votes  Buchanan's narrow v i c t o r y a  third  level  and  regions,  The  It  from  Mooney  religious  groups  friends  carried Breton  both  i n their  was a l w a y s  In essence,  who  local  was  importance  be  and  (1980)  the  vote. MacLean  and  Cowan  other  recalled  Candidates,  i n  from  able  came  Protestant  t o win In  support  contrast,  mainly  from t h e  even i n t h e cases  i n which  from both r e l i g i o u s  higher  both  Doucet and  and  regions.  support  among d e l e g a t e s  groups, of their  while delegates, regardless of religion,  candidates, they  i n another  sense  of religion variable that  was  candidates  were  home  however,  the vote  Catholic  and Cameron  and neighbours  of support  the only will  Cameron  support.  usually  F o r i n s t a n c e , Cape  majorities  t o support  'neighbour'  i n  Catholic  for a co-religionist,  neighbours  well,  own r e l i g i o n . tended  the  made b y M a c L e a n  c a n d i d a t e s r e c e i v e d home r e g i o n s u p p o r t  age,  of  o f h i s f e l l o w P r o t e s t a n t s . Indeed,  their  hidden  i n 1971 c o n c e a l e d t h e  of  victories  p a t t e r n o f support  islanders.  were  1 3  co-religionists.  by  carrying  'friends'.  differences  t h e s t r o n g showings  among t h e i r  modified  voting  could  the  suppressed  from  be c o n s i d e r e d t h e i r  religious  convention fact  might  s u p p o r t e d most  a religious  can be f u r t h e r  consistently  losing  seen  Doucet,  by  examining  with  voting.  MacLean  and  When t h i s i s a d d e d t o t h e e v i d e n c e f r o m P E I , t h e n o t i o n t h a t geography and r e l i g i o n may b e l i n k e d i n a common f r i e n d s and n e i g h b o u r s framework i s l e n t f u r t h e r s t r e n g t h . 1 3  a  'friend.'  associated  candidates  strongly  Cowan a c h i e v e d t h e i r h i g h e s t l e v e l s o f s u p p o r t thirty—with However/ both  Doucet  only  actually  Doucet  religious  was  groups  support  from  young  support  f r o m young  winning  able  the  were  and even  from  youth  that  attracted a higher able  The  evidence  from  provides s t r i k i n g evidence politics.  Nova  level  t o win  same  divisions.  of  majority  i n 1980 a n d  Scotian  from d e l e g a t e s  leadership  in  conventions  traditional  cleavages  a t a l l o f t h e Nova  Scotian  of  region  and  conventions  and  t h e r e were no p a r t i s a n d i f f e r e n c e s ; e a c h p a r t y c o n v e n t i o n the  from  of the importance of t r a d i t i o n a l t i e s i n  The  were e v i d e n t  group.  c a s t by young P r o t e s t a n t s i n 1986.  s u c c e s s f u l i n g a i n i n g youth votes group.  under  support  C a t h o l i c s on t h e two f i n a l b a l l o t s  religious  religion  he  C a t h o l i c s . MacLean was  other  provincial  a majority  t o win m a j o r i t y  Cowan r e c e i v e d t h e b u l k o f v o t e s Neither  from d e l e g a t e s  Other v a r i a b l e s t h a t  suffered  appeared important  were  a c t u a l l y secondary t o e i t h e r or both of the t r a d i t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s . W i t h few e x c e p t i o n s , d e l e g a t e s d i v i d e d on t h e b a s i s o f r e g i o n and  religion  or  income.  even  among  The  The t r a d i t i o n a l relatively  ex-officio regional  regardless of s i m i l a r i t i e s  high  delegates,  and  uniqueness  o f 1980  Catholic  ex-officio  arguments  that  persuasive.  i t was  variables exerted status  except  religious  Nova  i n 1980,  cleavages may  i n age, e d u c a t i o n ,  owe  delegates  as  a f f e c t e d by  as t h e c o n s t i t u e n c y  to a that  conventions  influence  Scotians. Surprisingly, were  realization i f  a Catholic's turn  At the other  a strong  class,  Cameron would  the  delegates.  on t h e p a r t did  never  considerations  not  again  of  win, be as  of t h i s i l k  178 were  unnecessary. It  appears  r e l i g i o u s and  that  to  vote  Even t h e i r  religious  differences  e t h n i c i t y had  least  immunity was  susceptible  to  of  only  these  trends  relative  and  display  an  The more  The  regional  rather  e f f e c t on  the  voting  o f Quebec, and c a n d i d a c y was he  was  convention  interesting attitudinally Conservative  than  conservative  of  delegates.  party  progressive.  v i e w s on  the  majority  1971,  of  The  i n the  support  i d e o l o g i c a l l y d i v i d e d . I t i s not significant  voting  although  must  rate,  one  delegates  from the  could  not  c a n d i d a t e s and  that  such  p i c k up the  on  be  and  held  the  place  these views, delegates  1971  i s s u e s on  were  even  but  holding  convention  potential did explicit  appeared  c o u n t r y . Buchanan's  from the  found  did  delegates  c l e a r whether the  d i v i s i o n s could  concede  Scotia  of  holding  c o n t r a r y p o s i t i o n s . T h i s i s n o t t o say t h a t t h e  voting  division.  Nova  bulk  Nor  however,  r o l e o f government  very popular with delegates win  of  based v o t i n g  Francophones i n general,  unable to  and  a l m o s t no a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h v o t i n g . G e n d e r  Conservative  conservative  other  remained r e a d i l y apparent.  little  Progressive  They  than  were e i t h e r o f t h e L i b e r a l c o n v e n t i o n s marked by a t t i t u d i n a l divisions.  the  were t h e young d e l e g a t e s .  in violation  O t h e r v a r i a b l e s had and  delegates  regional voting trends  were more l i k e l y delegates.  the  was  which  salient,  e x i s t . At  any  ideological signals  a t t i t u d i n a l d i v i s i o n s that did  were s t r o n g l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d i v i s i o n s on t h e b a s i s o f r e g i o n  exist and  religion. This  analysis  of  convention  voting  in  Nova  Scotia  finds  179 region  and  religion  divisions.  and  important  the most  important  sources  of  voting  The demise of r e l i g i o n i n the p r o v i n c e has been g r e a t l y  exaggerated. from  t o be  At Nova S c o t i a n  the  nature  of  his  conventions, religious  where a  candidate i s  background,  c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . Nova S c o t i a n conventions  are  very  f i t very  well  i n t o a f r i e n d s and neighbours framework and the p a t t e r n of support at these conventions c l o s e l y resemble t h a t seen at conventions PEI. A r e g i o n a l s t y l e of p o l i t i c s i s emerging.  on  180  Multiple  T a b l e 5-13 R e g r e s s i o n : S o c i a l and G e o g r a p h i c  Factors  Buchanan  Doucet  Thornhill  Buchanan (2)  Dartmouth  -.25*  -.35*  .60*  .34  —  Cape Breton  -.28*  .32*  -.04  -.31*  -.37*  Urban  .06  .01  -.07  .02  .06  Ex-officio  .02  .01  -.03  .02  .01  Under  -.02  .20*  -.18*  -.12  .09*  Male  -.05  .09  -.04  -.07  .05  British  .09  .08  -.18  -.03  —  Protestant  .03  -.15*  .12  .14*  .09*  College  -.08  .02  -.06  -.09  -.01  Wealthy  -.03  .02  .01  —  Constant  .34  .27  .38  .66  .31  r  .10  .18  .16  .16  .17  sq.  30  Cowan  . 11*  181 Table 5-13b M u l t i p l e Regression Continued H  Cameron  Maclnnis  MacLean  Mooney  Cameron (3)  Eastern Mainland  .20*  -.15  .08  -.13*  .11  South Shore  -.23*  -.08  -.08  .39*  .11  Cape Breton  -.29*  -.03  .49*  -.16*  -.41*  Halifax Metro  -.05  .11*  -.01  -.05  .00  Ex-officio  .04  .05  -.01  -.08  .02  Under 30  -.06  .01  .02  .03  -.10  male  .00  .03  -.06  .02  .03  British  .06  -.02  .05  -.08  -.17  Protestant  .16*  .00  -.11*  -.06  .13*  College  -.01  -.04  .03  .02  —  Wealthy  -.12  -.07  .08  .11*  -.05  Constant  .36  .23  .09  .31  .82  r sq.  .19  .06  .24  .22  .21  As w i t h P r i n c e Edward I s l a n d t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s a r e dummy v a r i a b l e s s c o r e d 1 i f t h e y have t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c named, 0 otherwise. They a r e l a r g e l y self explanatory. The geographic v a r i a b l e s r e f e r t o t h e a r e a o f t h e p r o v i n c e named, w h i l e u r b a n r e f e r s t o o v e r 100,000. An a s t e r i s k i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e c o e f f i c i e n t i s s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e .05 l e v e l o r b e t t e r . 14  182  Chapter New  Brunswick  Liberals:  The  examination  provinces  c o n c l u d e s by  two  most  This  of  provides,  for  Divisions  in a Bipolar  conventions  examining  recent L i b e r a l  6  first  individual  conventions  time,  i n New  insight  into  variables  Moreover,  most  closely  i t allows  contention that  for  Maritime  associated  an  assessment  leadership  of the s t r e n g t h of t r a d i t i o n a l t i e s best understood that  support  d e l e g a t e s who  with of  the  for  leadership  highlights voting.  validity  co