UBC Theses and Dissertations

UBC Theses Logo

UBC Theses and Dissertations

Influencing inter-regional migration Stott, Adrian George E 1974

Your browser doesn't seem to have a PDF viewer, please download the PDF to view this item.

Item Metadata

Download

Media
831-UBC_1974_A6_7 S86.pdf [ 5.6MB ]
Metadata
JSON: 831-1.0099889.json
JSON-LD: 831-1.0099889-ld.json
RDF/XML (Pretty): 831-1.0099889-rdf.xml
RDF/JSON: 831-1.0099889-rdf.json
Turtle: 831-1.0099889-turtle.txt
N-Triples: 831-1.0099889-rdf-ntriples.txt
Original Record: 831-1.0099889-source.json
Full Text
831-1.0099889-fulltext.txt
Citation
831-1.0099889.ris

Full Text

INFLUENCING INTER-REGIONAL MIGRATION by ADRIAN GEORGE E. STOTT B.Sc., U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia, 1968 M.Math., U n i v e r s i t y of Waterloo, 1971 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE i n the School of Community and Regional Planning We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming to the r e q u i r e d standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l , 1974 i In presenting t h i s thesis i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements f c r an advanced degree at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the Library s h a l l make i t freely available f c r reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of t h i s thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by his representative. I t i s understood that copying or publication of th i s thesis for f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l net be allowed without my written permission. School of Community and Regional Planning University of B r i t i s h Columbia a p r i l , 1974 i i ABSTRACT. Concern about population growth has become widespread in recent years. Although t h i s concern i s often expressed in global terms, i t also arises at the community or regional l e v e l . If the rate cf population growth i s i n fact a problem at thi s scale i n many areas, as i t appears to be, then i t i s desirable to have methods available to a l l e v i a t e the problem. The population growth rate i n a given region depends upcn three factors: the b i r t h r a t e , the deathrate, and the rate of net migration to the region. In many regions, p a r t i c u l a r l y those including large urban areas, the net migration rate predominates in determining the rate of population growth. In order to s i g n i f i c a n t l y influence the population growth rate in such a region, methods of a l t e r i n g the net migration flow w i l l usually be required. The purpose of t h i s work was to investigate p o l i c i e s that could be used to reduce the net immigration flow to a given region. The investigation proceeded as follows. A review of the l i t e r a t u r e concerning migration was performed, with par t i c u l a r emphasis on the causes of migration and the ch a r a c t e r i s t i c s of migrants. Previous attempts to reduce net immigration were examined, so that the scope of methods used for th i s function might be perceived. A system of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of these methods was developed, and a scheme of method evaluation was devised and applied to each c l a s s of methods in the system of c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . I t was found that there are serious shortcomings in most of the methods used to date. i i i a fter considering the various types of problem found to exist i n previously-used net immigration reduction attempts, four types of policy were suggested f o r consideration when such attempts are made in the future. These types were: P u b l i c i t y campaigns, l i m i t a t i o n cf immigrant access at the national l e v e l , d i r e c t taxation of immigrants, and direc t incentives to emigrants. iv TABLE OP CONTENTS. ABSTRACT .................................................. i i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS v i i CHAPTER I"*-- INTRODUCTION TO THE PROBLEM 1 Population Growth and Regional Problems ................. 1 Migration in Regional Population P o l i c i e s ............... 7 Content of t h i s Report .................................. 8 Selected? Bibliography f o r Chapter 1 ..................... 10 CHAPTER 2 — STUDIES OF MIGRATION ......................... 11 The Migration Decision Process .......................... 12 History of Migration Study 13 Factors Affecting Migration ............................. 21 "Push1' and " F u l l " 24 Characteristics of Migratory Flow ....................... 26 Characteristics of the Migrant 28 Sumntary . . ..................................... .......... 30 References from Chapter 2 ............................... 32 Selected Bibliography for Chapter 2 33 CHAPTER 3 — MIGRATION CONTROLS IN PRACTICE ............... 36 Information Sources ..................................... 36 C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of Control Measures ...................... 37 Improving Migratory Origins ............................. 38 Improving Alternative Migratory Destinations ............ 39 Reduction cf Local Migratory Attraction ................. 42 A) Re s t r i c t i o n of Access 43 B) Reduction of P u l l Factors 45 C) Alteration of Immigrant Perception ................. 48 V B) Encouragement cf Emigration 49 Summary 50 References from Chapter 3 51 Selected Bibliography for Chapter 3 ..................... 52 CHAPTER 4 — EVALUATION OF CONTROL POLICIES 53 The Method of Policy Evaluation ......................... 53 Evaluation C r i t e r i a ..................................... 54 Evaluation of Control Measures .......................... 58 Improving Migratory Origins ............................. 58 Improving Alternative Migratory Destinations ............ 60 Reduction cf Local Migratory Attraction ................. 65 A) Rest r i c t i o n of Access 65 B) Reduction of P u l l Factors .......................... 68 A-B) Addendum ......................................... 70 C) ' Alteration of Immigrant Perception ................. 71 D) Encouragement of Emigration ........................ 75 Summary ................................................. 77 Conclusion ............................................ 80 References from Chapter 4 ............................... 81 Selected Bibliography for Chapter 4 ..................... 82 CHAPTER 5 — DESIGN OF POLICIES ........................... 83 Guidelines for Policy ................................... 84 Po l i c i e s f c r Consideration .............................. 85 Pub l i c i t y Campaigns 86 A) Description of Policy .............................. 86 B) Evaluation 88 Increasing the D i f f i c u l t y of Immigration ................ 88 Restriction of National Access 88 A) Description of Policy 88 B) Evaluation 89 Taxation of Immigrants .................................. 91 A) Description cf Policy .............................. 91 B) Evaluation ......................................... 93 v i Emigration Grants 96 A) Description of Policy 96 B) Evaluation ......................................... 97 Summary ................................................. 98 References from Chapter 5 ............................... 99 Selected Bibliography for Chapter 5, 100 CHAPTER 6 — CONCLUSION ........ 101 Features of Successful P o l i c i e s ......................... 101 Previous Experience and Policy Design ................... 102 Epilogue 104 BIBLIOGRAPHY 105 / v i i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. The author wishes to express his appreciation to his advisors. Doctor Craig Davis and Howard Cherniack, f o r the ef f o r t and energy they put into discussions of t h i s work as i t progressed. P a r t i c u l a r thanks are directed to Howard Cherniack, who agreed to take on the chore of helping to direc t the writing of this thesis l a t e r in the year i n addition to his other duties. Despite the fact that he had his own thesis to write, he spent many hours correcting not only the l o g i c of t h i s work, fcut also i t s grammar. S t i l l more hours were devoted to arguments with the author ever the v a l i d i t y of the corrections proposed, arguments which the author usually l o s t . The author g r a t e f u l l y acknowledges the willingness with which this time was spent, and i s thankful for h i s own luck i n having advisors who not only would correct his work, but also would take the trouble to ensure that the corrections were understood. Thank you, gentlemen. 1 Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION TO THE PRC EL EH. This work i s concerned with methods and p o l i c i e s for c o n t r o l l i n g human migration between regions, and i n p a r t i c u l a r , for reducing net immigration to a given region. To r e a l i z e the relevance of t h i s area of study, the reader must f i r s t have some understanding cf 1) the bearing of population growth on regional problems, and 2) the importance of inter-regional migration in regional population p o l i c i e s . Accordingly, background information concerning these points w i l l be presented f i r s t . J?£LEul§tion Growth and Regional Problems. An increase i n the population of a human community can cause many problems to be experienced by members cf that community. These problems are generally brought about in the following way. As a population grows, the aggregate demand i t generates for many goods, services, and amenities, grows also. Means are also generated to s a t i s f y these demands, but i t may be d i f f i c u l t or impossible to increase the supply of some of the commodities demanded. Furthermore, where such increase i s possible, i t may be the case that the creation of means to s a t i s f y a new demand lags behind the creation of the demand i t s e l f . As a r e s u l t of these two factors, certain demands may remain u n s a t i s f i e d , or may be s a t i s f i e d only at higher prices, after growth has occurred. Cessation or slowing down of population /growth would allow the lag-induced shortages to be reduced, with the re s u l t that 2 prices for these commodities could f a l l . In fact, they might f a l l below t h e i r pre-growth l e v e l s , as the larger population should experience economies of scale i n s a t i s f y i n g i t s larger demands. However, under continued population growth, the benefits of these economies are more d i f f i c u l t to r e a l i z e because of the constant need to invest more c a p i t a l . This c a p i t a l i s needed to develop new plant capable of s a t i s f y i n g the community's larger needs. The new plant w i l l often be cheaper to operate per unit of commodity produced, but i f demand continues to r i s e , i t may be necessary to replace t h i s newer plant by s t i l l larger equipment before the investment in i t s creation has been f u l l y recovered. In general, then, population growth i n an urban region i s l i k e l y to be accompanied by an excess of quantity demanded over quantity supplied for many commodities, and t h i s condition w i l l often result i n a r i s e i n the cost of l i v i n g for the residents of the area. Different commodities can be in short supply at d i f f e r e n t times, but there are some shortages which regularly accompany population growth. Lithwick (1970, page 59) i d e n t i f i e s the most important of these shortages as that of urban space. Living and working accomodation i s necessary for everyone, and t h i s accommodation requires land and buildings. Eecause raw land i n urban areas soon becomes very scarce, and because cf the high costs and long time delays that are unavoidably part of producing new buildings, the demand for urban space can be expected to increase faster than the supply i n an area of 3 growing population. The result of ever-rising prices for t h i s space i s evident in almost a l l urban centres. Of course, these increases i n the price of urban space lead to attempts to supply additional space. This can be done i n two ways, by increasing development density and by enlarging the urbanized area. Both methods can cause further problems f o r residents of the area. Many people apparently equate redevelopment tc higher densities with the destruction or ruin of their neighbourhoods (G.V.R.D., 1972(2), page 5). The report referenced summarizes the feelings in the community as follows: Older buildings, which may have value to the community; are removed to make way for larger structures; land prices r i s e , and t h i s , coupled with the higher construction costs cf the t a l l e r buildings, increases the price of accommodation; higher density l i v i n g i s often accompanied by a decline in personal privacy and simultaneously a drop i n important personal contacts i n the community; the opportunity tc relate to others as individuals i s reduced; the community may seem to many to move beyond their scale of comprehension. The v a l i d i t y of these statements has not been established, but already there i s considerable p o l i t i c a l pressure for the reduction of population growth in the region as a result of such feel i n g s . Enlarging the urbanized area means that more land must be converted to urban use from some other use. If the land was previously i n i t s natural state, t h i s conversion means further inroads by man into the natural environment. H i s t o r i c a l l y , these inroads have often been at the expense of ec o l o g i c a l l y a sensitive areas, such as estuaries, marshes, and other wetlands, because these areas are r e l a t i v e l y cheap to convert into building land. Ho matter what natural areas are used, however, nature becomes more remote from many of the inhabitants of the area, a process which many people regard as a d e f i n i t e s o c i a l cost (G.V.R.D. , 1972 (2), page 5). If the new urban land was previously farmland, a d i f f e r e n t cost i s incurred due to the removal of this land from a g r i c u l t u r a l production. Results of t h i s process may include an increase i n the l o c a l prices of food, and a decline in freshness of food purchased, because of greater freighting distances. Farmland has also been a frequent victim of urban spread since the f l a t lands usually used for farming are again r e l a t i v e l y cheap to build on. Lithwick (1970, page 60) goes on to show that land shortage increases the cost of l i v i n g of l o c a l inhabitants in many diffe r e n t ways. For example, he points out that a c i t y which enlarges i t s population w i l l require enlarged transportation systems. These systems usually use more land than the older systems, so the shortage of land i s further aggravated, and the cost of supplying transportation r i s e s . However, the cost of services to the residents of the area can also r i s e in other ways. The lag e f f e c t mentioned previously i s p a r t i c u l a r l y important, as the increase i n tax revenue enabling the financing of larger service plant usually does not occur u n t i l some time after the population has grown. Delays in the s t a r t of new community f a c i l i t y construction can 5 be caused by this lag, and also because the planning and building of these f a c i l i t i e s generally takes longer than the supplying of new houses. as a r e s u l t , higher costs for services may be experienced. In thi s case, these costs often appear as a decline i n service quality while price per service remains constant (G.V.K.D., 1974, page 1). Improvements are eventually made to most services as a larger tax base becomes able to support these improvements. Nevertheless, the usual condition of a service w i l l be one of increasing cost per service while population growth continues. Many communities attempt to prevent t h i s decline in services frcm occurring by either building f a c i l i t i e s that have considerable excess capacity, so that future demand increase can be handled without new plant construction, or by levying imposts or developer charges upon those building new r e s i d e n t i a l accommodation, so that new f a c i l i t y construction can s t a r t immediately. The former approach can lead tc placement cf service capacity in the wrong place due to inaccurate projection of future trends, while the l a t t e r often simply passes along higher costs f c r housing to a l l l o c a l residents (G.V.B.E., 1974, pa ge 1) . i Of course, i t can be argued that there are many gains to be obtained from an increase i n population, the most often mentioned being the increase in the range of services a larger community can feasibly o f f e r to i t s residents, and the general economies of scale previously referred to. However, most of these gains seem to stem from the presence of a larger 6 population, while the process of growth produces costs f c r many residents. This process seems to benefit only a few i n d i v i d u a l s , while for the majority i n a given area, the greater the growth rate, the greater are the added costs incurred. I t should also be pointed out that a larger population i s not an unblemished good. Most natural resources and c a p a b i l i t i e s that a community reguires are f i n i t e i n supply or capacity, and so must be .spread more t h i n l y , or taxed more heavily, by a larger population. Such natural features include, for example, recreational land area and the a b i l i t y of the environment to absorb wastes. As a r e s u l t of his analysis of urban population growth, Lithwick (1970, page 64) f e e l s that the path to follow i s to accept the growth that i s occurring in urban areas and to search for ways to avoid the shortage of urban space and the problems that accompany i t . There i s another approach. People i n some areas are beginning to f e e l that i t would be better to l i m i t the amount of population growth that occurs in t h e i r areas and so remove the underlying causes of the problems, rather than to attack the problems after they have begun to occur. One cf these areas i s that of the Greater Vancouver Begional D i s t r i c t (G.V.R.D.). In 1971, t h i s body established as one of i t s major objectives "to manage growth and change so as to maintain or enhance the l i v a b i l i t y of the Region" (G.V.R.D., 1973 (2), page 1). The G.V.R.D. experienced a 3% per year population increase in. the period 1966-1971 (G.V.R.D., 1973 (1), page 4). It began 7 to be suggested that population increase rates of t h i s magnitude are no longer acceptable, since t h i s sort of growth was f e l t to be accompanied by a decline in the l i v a b i l i t y of the d i s t r i c t . This f e e l i n g was strongly stated i n a report from the G.V.R.D. c i t i z e n s ' Policy Committees, which draws the conclusion that "maintaining the l i v a b i l i t y of t h i s Region i s incompatible with unchecked population growth" (G.V.R.D., 1972 (1), page 4). Problems seen as related to unchecked growth in this area include damage to the natural environment (G.V.R.D., 1972(2)* page 4), and an increase i n the cost of many public services while the l e v e l and quality of service provided decline (G.V.R.D., 1972 (1), pages 2-3). However, at a policy seminar concerned with the prcblems of regional growth and the possible control of regional population increase, despite general agreement that regional population growth should be reduced, no acceptable and e f f e c t i v e method was found to achieve t h i s goal. It was clear that more research was needed on the subject (Vancouver Sun, 1974/2/14, page 12). Migration in Regional Population P o l i c i e s . Upon examination, i t was found that of the population increase occurring i n the 1966-1971 period in the G.V.R.D., 76.5$ was attributable to net immigration. The percentage cf increase a t t r i b u t a b l e to migration had also become steadily larger over the previous twenty years (G.V.R.D., 1973 (1), page 5). This trend in the Vancouver area i s consistent with forecasts of many researchers that migration w i l l come to be the 8 only s i g n i f i c a n t cause of population change in metropolitan centres in the future (Alonsc, 1971, pages 2-4). i I t i s apparent, then, that control of population growth in an urban region such as the G.V.R.D. w i l l necessitate control of migration to and from such a region. Moreover, for the G.V.R.D., t h i s area of growth i s the most s i g n i f i c a n t . However/ investigation into migration control has seldom been carried out, and there i s l i t t l e understanding of how control of migration should be performed. Content of t h i s Report. The case for the adoption of control of population growth as a regional policy i s not yet decided, and i t i s well beyond the scope of this work to proceed further with arguments for and against the adoption of such a policy. Nevertheless, i t appears that this policy i s worthy of further consideration as a possible path to follow i n solving some of the serious problems facing urban areas today. However, i t i s meaningless tc suggest thi s approach unless d e f i n i t e methods can be suggested to carry out a program of l i m i t a t i o n . The design of such methods has not been thoroughly investigated to date. Since inter-regional migration i s an important factor in regional population change, methods to control the volume of thi s migration w i l l te important to most regional population growth control p o l i c i e s . It i s the function of t h i s work to investigate methods to accomplish the control of t h i s inter-regional migration. This report i s structured as follows. Chapter 2 contains a 9 review of the l i t e r a t u r e concerning migration in general, so that the reader may obtain a background understanding of the migration process for which controls are to be found. Chapter 3 presents a summary of previous experience in the actual implementation of measures to bring about reductions in net regional immigration, and develops a scheme for the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of control measures. Chapter 4 develops a procedure fcr the evaluation of the effectiveness of migration control p o l i c i e s , and uses this procedure to perform an evaluation of the various classes of migration control measures described i n chapter 3. Chapter 5 uses the results of the evaluation carried out in chapter 4 to develop proposals as to how successful migration control p o l i c i e s could be synthesized, and suggests some p o l i c i e s that might be adopted. Chapter 6 presents a summary of the work. In closing this introduction, the author wishes to stress that t h i s report i s not a brief for the introduction of regional population l i m i t a t i o n i n any area. Instead, i t seeks to show that such l i m i t a t i o n i s feasible from an operational viewpoint, and to suggest methods of l i m i t a t i o n that might be used i f such a policy were held to be needed. The work i s an analysis of planning p o l i c i e s , not an exhortation for the use of a par t i c u l a r philosophy of government. 10 Selected Bibliography for Chapter K Alonso, W. (1971) The System of Intermetropolitan Population Flows^ Working Paper 155, national Commission cn Population Growth and the American Future, U.S. Department of Commerce. HB1965/A465/1971 (M) G.V.R.D. (1972 (1)) Report from the G.V.R.D. C i t i z e n s ' Policy Committees, unpublished. G I V . R . D . (1972 (2)) A Report on L i v a b i l i t y , G.V.R.D. Planning Department. G.V.R.D. (1973(1)) Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t Forecast, G.V.R.D. Planning Department. G.V.R.D. (1973(2)) Management of Growth i n the Vancouver Region, G.V.RwD. Planning Department. G.V.R.D. (1974) Sharing Residential Growth, Discussion paper of the G.VTR.D. policy seminar" of 74/2/13, G.V.R.D. Planning Department. Lithwick, H. (1970) Urban Canada, Problems and Prospects, C,M.R.C., Ottawa. Vancouver Sun (1974/2/14) "Subdivision halt forecast", page 12. 11 Chapter 2 STUDIES OF MIGRATION * In order to provide a basis for the discussion of migration, and of the body of l i t e r a t u r e r e l a t i n g to i t , a simple description of the migration process i s presented. A br i e f history of migration study and a description cf methods used follows, then the migration process i s discussed in greater d e t a i l , with concepts in the l i t e r a t u r e being introduced as they apply to each successive stage of the process. F i r s t of a l l , however, i t i s necessary to define certain terms that w i l l be used, in t h i s discussion. Migration - There have been many diff e r e n t d e f i n i t i o n s of migration put forward; but they generally share the following common points. Migration involves a change ,of usual residence. There must be a commitment on the part of the migrant to considering the new residence as his home. The move should be intended as a l a s t i n g change. The new residence and the old residence must be situated in d i f f e r e n t areas. The degree of commitment, the length of the time of change, and the esse n t i a l differences between the areas containing the old and the new home are a l l parameters that w i l l be set by the i n d i v i d u a l investigator depending on the thrust of the investigation being undertaken. Immigration - migration into a given area. 12 Emigration - migration out of a given area. Net migration - number of immigrants minus number of emigrants for a given area during a given time period. Gross migration - number of immigrants plus number of emigrants for a given area during a given time period. Migration stream - a l l migration from a given o r i g i n to a given destination. International migration, i n which the or i g i n and destination of the move are in dif f e r e n t countries, i s often distinguished from i n t e r n a l migration. However, since t h i s work i s focusing on migration control at the regional l e v e l , this d i s t i n c t i o n w i l l not be made unless i t i s e x p l i c i t l y so stated. The Migration Decision Process. Migration i s here assumed tp be a process through which each migrant hopes to improve his l o t in l i f e . To become a migrant, however, a person must f i r s t be aware that there are alternative areas i n which he could l i v e . U n t i l he achieves th i s awareness of migration as a possible means of s e l f betterment, a person has net entered the migration f i e l d at a l l , but aft e r t h i s point, he can be considered to be a potential emigrant from his home area. Second, the potential emigrant must decide that there are one or more s p e c i f i c areas in which he might prefer to l i v e . 13 This state of mind w i l l be arrived at through evaluating places by considering c r i t e r i a that are personally chosen by each person. After t e n t a t i v e l y i d e n t i f y i n g migratory destinations, t h i s person may be referred to as a potential immigrant of the considered areas. Last, 1 the potential immigrant must perceive that the benefits to be obtained from migration to a particular destination more than o f f s e t the costs involved i n leaving his current home and those associated with the actual move. If this perception occurs, and the subject i s able tc overcome the i n e r t i a associated with an established home, then he w i l l become a migrant. Again, the choice of c r i t e r i a for this decision, and the weights applied to each, i s a personal prerogative. Notice, however, that each of these steps i s a process capable of producing one of thCee r e s u l t s . The subject may progress to the next step, he may remain at his current status, or he may decide to cease considering migration at a l l . i i i story of Migration Study. Concern over migration, and the implementation of p o l i c i e s that a f f e c t migration volumes, are not new phenomena. Isaac {1947, Chapter 2 ) 1 points out that the c i t y states cf ancient Greece were worried by the prospect of cver-populaticn and so established colonization programs to a l l e v i a t e t h i s problem by encouraging emigration, and that the Eoman empire practised wholesale importation of slaves to increase the size and power of Rome, 14 i Credit for the f i r s t s c i e n t i f i c analysis cf migration is generally given to I. Ravenstein, who i n 1885 published a l i s t of "The Laws of Migration" after a consideration of the B r i t i s h census of 1881 2. His work was not generally accepted at the time. Nevertheless, i n t e r e s t in the investigation cf t h i s subject was stimulated, and research was carried on at an ever increasing volume. Today there are bibliographies available l i s t i n g very large numbers of works i n this area (e.g. Pryor (1971) , Welch (1970) ) . . The importance of migration/ and so the need for an understanding cf the subject, can be appreciated cy considering, for example, that 1) the entire continent of North America was i n i t i a l l y populated largely by migration, 2) i t i s now estimated that one person in six in the U.S.A. moves each year (Wertheimer, 1970, page 10), and more than one t h i r d of these cross a county boundary (The Commission on Population ... , 1972, page 28), and 3) r u r a l to urban movement i s so large that in recent years i n Canada, urban population growth has exceeded t o t a l population growth (Anderson, 1966, page 11). The relevance of migration to change i n society i s now widely recognized. Economists, for example, consider i t tc be the most important adjustment mechanism available for l o c a l economies and for the migrants themselves i n the face of changing conditions (Friesen, 1973). The high effectiveness cf migration l i e s in the fact that i t can produce a fas t response to change where a l t e r a t i o n of the birth rate, for example, w i l l not be f e l t in the labour force for f i f t e e n tc twenty years 15 (Kuznets, 1957). Migration research has been c l a s s i f i e d into two main types: t h e o r e t i c a l and empirical ( M o r r i l l , 1965, page 33). The empirical studies have tended to examine data cn migratory movement and tc impute motives to the moves, or c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s to the migrants. The t h e o r e t i c a l studies have approached the problem i n the reverse order, by attempting to outline the motives for a move and the types of people most l i k e l y tc mcve, and then examining available movement data to test these hypotheses. H i s t o r i c a l l y , there has always been d i f f i c u l t y i n obtaining the necessary data for research into migratory movement (Anderson, 1966, page 32). In the democracies, and in par t i c u l a r in North America, a person changing his place cf residence generally reports t h i s change to the authorities only to maintain a current mailing address, and while i t i s often possible to detect a move through the records cf such organizations as the public u t i l i t i e s and meter vehicle administrations, t h i s data i s not normally readily available to a researcher. As a r e s u l t , information must usually be gathered by means of extensive and therefore expensive c o l l a t i o n frcm several sources. Many censuses now include questions concerning r e s i d e n t i a l moves in the intercensal period. Nevertheless, such information i s seldom detailed enough for a thorough investigation. Also, inaccuracies often occur i n t h i s type cf data due to faulty memory or deliberate misinformation cn the part of those interviewed. In any case, the inc l u s i o n cf this 16 type of question i s quite a recent phenomenon — George (1970, page 8) reports that the f i r s t Canadian census including questions on migration was that of 1941. Important also i s the fact that such data must be summarized to be useful, and a t r a d i t i o n a l problem has been to decide how such summarization should be carried out. In the past, summarization has generally been performed within arbitrary or p o l i t i c a l boundaries, such as those cf census tracts or municipalities. Naturally, the a v a i l a b i l i t y and ch a r a c t e r i s t i c s of data has imposed severe l i m i t a t i o n s upon the type of study that has been carried cut. For example, i t i s p a r t i a l l y for reasons of data a v a i l a b i l i t y that Thcinlinscn • s d e f i n i t i o n of migration requires that " p o l i t i c a l boundaries" be crossed (Thomlinson, 1965, page 211), and Stone, in his analysis of migration using the 1961 Canadian census, refers to his use of municipal boundaries as "fin admittedly poor..,but...practical solution" (Stone, 1969, page 6). Nevertheless, despite these and other problems, the study of migration has continued, and many important results have been obtained. The Migration Becison Process in the Literature. Although "streams of migration" are often referred to in describing migration trends, meaning a l l migrants who, in a given time i n t e r v a l , leave the same o r i g i n and arrive at the same destination (George, 1970, page 8) , these streams are in fact aggregates of the moves of i n d i v i d u a l s . To discover the 17 forces driving the migration process, therefore, i t i s most f r u i t f u l to examine the decision process of the i n d i v i d u a l migrant. It i s commonly accepted in the l i t e r a t u r e that a migrant i s a person who changes his home to seek net gains in his balance of s a t i s f a c t i o n (Simmie, 1972, page 17), or, more p l a i n l y , "people decide to move or stay ... because of the perceived benefits to themselves" (Sertheimer, 1970, page 10), so i t i s important to learn how he comes to perceive a greater benefit i n moving than that obtained by staying. The Abt Associates report on r u r a l to urban migration among the poor outlines the conditions that obtain during the decision process for a potential migrant (Abt, 1970, pages 26-28). In that report, an i n d i v i d u a l i s assumed to be normally oblivious to the p o s s i b i l i t y of migrating, having established an equilibrium between his perceptions of conditions i n his own community and those in the universe cf "elsewhere". In e f f e c t , the report assumes the existence of a place u t i l i t y function for each person (Friesen, 1973), the values of which are set by the personal preferences of each potential migrant for each locati o n . The Abt report goes on to state the b e l i e f , based cn extensive interviews, that small changes in the i n d i v i d u a l ' s perceptions cf conditions either at home or elsewhere may disturb the equilibrium s l i g h t l y , but i t requires a s i g n i f i c a n t accumulation of such changes i n one d i r e c t i o n , or a "major shock", that i s a sudden and s i g n i f i c a n t a l t e r a t i o n of perceptions (but not necessarily conditions), to cause a basic 18 reassessment cf the factors of the equilibrium, and so of the value of the place u t i l i t y function. at t h i s point, i f the u t i l i t y of a move appears greater than the u t i l i t y of remaining in the current home, a decision to migrate w i l l be made. The report suggests, however, that "The p r i n c i p a l decision ... seems to be whether or not the i n d i v i d u a l w i l l migrate. Where he w i l l migrate i s i n some respects a separate decision", This statement posits the existence of d i s t i n c t stages i n the decision process, based on the l e v e l of perception an in d i v i d u a l has achieved concerning migration. Information for the Migration Decision. I f the above description of the decision process i s accepted, i t i s important to know how information i s obtained as input to the process. It i s considered that the concept of the rat i o n a l economic man making decisions on the basis cf perfect and complete information i s of l i t t l e use in describing the process in r e a l i t y (abt, 1970, page 5); as in much of human decision making* the s a t i s f i c i n g description seems to be more suitable (Friesen, 1973). This model describes people as.making decisions on the basis of whatever information i s easily available. L i t t l e importance i s attached to obtaining more complete knowledge (Simon, 1957, page 205). Since a perception of the current home area i s part cf the i n i t i a l step of the process, the f i r s t apparent requirement for the decision i s a knowledge of the conditions of the community currently inhabited. a person cannot f a i l to obtain some 19 impression of his surroundings simply by going about his daily business, but even in his home area there i s bound tc be less than perfect knowledge of matters of importance to the person concerned. This would be important i f i t caused a lack cf re a l i z a t i o n of p o s s i b i l i t i e s for personal improvement at home. The perception of such opportunities would increase the u t i l i t y to the i n d i v i d u a l , value of the present home community and perhaps prevent any further consideration cf moving. However, i f s u f f i c i e n t personal s a t i s f a c t i o n i s net found by the poten t i a l migrant in his home community, eventually the decision may be taken to emigrate, although migration w i l l net occur unless i t i s perceived that there i s another area where things would be better. In order for t h i s perception tc occur, the potential migrant must have some information about other possible places. The Abt report suggests that the decision as to what place to consider as an alternative may be an unconscious one, or even a long-standing assumption. This choice may be based on information obtained during previous personal v i s i t s to other locales, or possibly on reports frcm acquaintances who have made a move at some time i n the past, and whe have sent glowing testimonials to the i r friends back home (Abt, 1970, page 28). There are, cf course, other ways i n which information about alte r n a t i v e s may be obtained by the person d i s s a t i s f i e d with his present home. Isaac (1947, page 44) points out that the spread of facts by governmental bodies about their regions of r e s p o n s i b i l i t y has become an important source of such information, while another major input i s casual reception of information through such entertainment media as 20 newspapers, magazines, and t e l e v i s i o n , which present a r t i c l e s and reports concerning other parts of the world. * La s t l y , the potential migrant requires information concerning the physical move i t s e l f . However, since transportation technology has progressed to the point where the moving of people and goods involves l i t t l e physical hardship for the migrant, th i s area of information i s now of greatly reduced importance. The only major piece of data usually wanted here i s the cost of making the journey. The obtaining of information for the migration decision, p a r t i c u l a r l y cf the f i r s t two types mentioned, i s a most s i g n i f i c a n t part of the process. Isaac {1947, page 44) also mentions the clangers of migratory f a i l u r e (failure tc achieve personal gain through the move undertaken) that can accompany the reception of incorrect information. He notes that information received from those private i n d i v i d u a l s who stand to make a p r o f i t from the movement of others i s l i k e l y to be p a r t i c u l a r l y inaccurate. The amount of information available must have a large e f f e c t on the outcome of a migration decision, and can also determine whether such a decision w i l l be made at a l l . 21 Factorg Affecting Migration. From Ravenstein's work right up to the present day, the most important elements of society and environment aff e c t i n g the decision to migrate have been consistently i d e n t i f i e d as motives related to economic conditions. Bavenstein himself l i s t s a variety of alternative factors, but concludes that no migration stream produced by these factors "can compare i n volume with that which arises from the desire inherent in most men to •better* themselves i n material respects" (Lee, in Jackson, 1969, page 283). Isaac in 1947 introduced a section cn migration determining factors with the heading "Predominance of the Economic Incentive" (Isaac; 1947, page 23), and there i s no shortage of similar opinions in more modern works (e.g. Kuznets (1957, i n Milbank, page 198), S jaastad (1962) 3 , Andersen (1966, page 27)) . In order to compare economic conditions i n di f f e r e n t places, researchers have commonly used the personal income cf similar classes of people i n each place, or the income of migrants before and after moving, as a measure of the effect of the l o c a l economy on the resident of an area. Simple income i s often converted into a more sophisticated figure for comparison purposes. Such an index may be composed of the raw income value adjusted by measures of the cost and standard cf l i v i n g , including the cost and a v a i l a b i l i t y of housing, schools, etc. Naturally, for most people a key factor in their person'al income i s the a v a i l a b i l i t y of work, and as a re s u l t , unemployment i s also seen as an important determinant cf 22 migration (The Commission on Population ... , 1972, page 28). Senior (in Eaton, 1969, page 35) even feels that job a v a i l a b i l i t y may be the most s i g n i f i c a n t factor a f f e c t i n g migrants. However, in concluding t h i s mention of economic factors, i t i s appropriate to include the interesting viewpoint of Bohrlich (in Eaton, 1969, page 72) that economists are naturally concerned with migration as i t provides a simple model of an adjustment mechanism between l o c a l economies, and so the preponderance in the l i t e r a t u r e of economists' studies may create a fals e impression of the importance of economic factors. This i l l u s t r a t e s a point that Friesen (1973) makes, which i s that i n migration research, each researcher has naturally tended to ascribe explanations to migration that f i t the prevailing theories of his own d i s c i p l i n e — the economist stresses economic issues, the s o c i o l o g i s t matters of s o c i a l r e l a t i o n s , etc. Nevertheless, despite the predominant bias towards economic considerations i n migration research, there has been a growing trend to attempt to incorporate non-economic factors in theories cf migration causes. This has tended to dis c r e d i t the description of the migration decision process as a cost-benefit analysis, as suggested by Simmie (1972, page 15). The values of the costs and benefits associated with many of the new factors to be included are not readily g u a n t i f i a t l e in a mutually consistent way. In fact, i t i s f e l t that the key problem at the moment i n modelling the migration process i s the d i f f i c u l t y cf 23 quantification for comparison of non-monetary costs and benefits (Friesen, 1973). There are a great many non-economic factors that can be included' as variables determining migration, because the number of factors increases with the number of things an in d i v i d u a l thinks are important about his home environment. There are personal factors, such as the relationship of the indi v i d u a l to members of his community; or the success of his marriage; cr the stage of his family l i f e cycle; and also factors related tc his physical environment such as opportunities for certain types cf recreation; p o l l u t i o n ; scenery; climate; etc. The reader w i l l probably be able to add to t h i s l i s t other items that he personally would consider i f a migratory move were being contemplated. It i s not being suggested that every factor suggested above, economic and non-economic, would be considered i n any given case, as there may be l i t t l e information available to the prospective migrant i n many of these conceptual areas. Furthermore, i f there were s u f f i c i e n t information available, there i s no certainty that the i n d i v i d u a l would perceive the import of a l l the factors to his pa r t i c u l a r case. Instead, the point being made i s that there i s a very wide range of factors that can influence a migration decision. Hhile there are c e r t a i n l y factors that a f f e c t the migration decisions of many indi v i d u a l s , i t i s not l i k e l y that a simple set of causes for migration w i l l be found that can be applied to a l l migration sit u a t i o n s . The reasons for t h i s are stated guite 24 c l e a r l y by Anderson (1966, page 24), who says that "Each individual judges the net gain of moving on the basis cf his own personal assessment of the relevant factors. These factors c l e a r l y vary between in d i v i d u a l situations and over time". However, there are factors that apply in many situations, and so influence stream volumes. These are the factors mentioned above. Alonso (1971, page 1) draws an analogy between this s i t u a t i o n and the study of of the behaviour cf gases, suggesting that one can determine higher order relationships such as Boyle's law without considering every d e t a i l of the Brcwnian motion of the gas molecules. This i s an important point. The delineation cf factors considered in even a major proportion of migration decisions i s by no means the same thing as finding the causes of migration, especially when control of migration volumes i s to be attempted. "Push" and " F u l l " . Elements of change in s o c i e t a l or environmental ccnditions that appear to cause migration to take place have often been c l a s s i f i e d by migration analysts into "push" and " p u l l " forces. The theory i s that a person would move for either or both of the following reasons: (1) i f conditions at home became intolerable, either through a gradual process or because of a natural disaster, so that he i s pushed out of his home area, or (2) i f conditions at some destination became perceived as being a considerable improvements on conditions at home, so that he i s pulled towards that destination. 25 Predictions have been made concerning c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of migrants produced by push and by p u l l forces. The migrant responding primarily to /a push from his home area i s seen as a person who i s concerned more with his present l o t in l i f e than in thinking about his future, since he i s not responding to appeals from better places, but merely moving to avoid the intolerable (Isaac, 1947, page 34). Jansen (in Jackson, 1969, page 64)' feels that migrants produced by a strong push w i l l be a more-or-less random sample from the or i g i n population. Push w i l l tend to be unselective since exceptionally bad l o c a l conditions w i l l e f f e c t a large part cf the population there, causing general emigratory trends, whereas migrants pulled towards s p e c i f i c destinations w i l l choose destinations that p a r t i c u l a r l y suit them, and so p u l l migration streams w i l l be highly selected as to types of migrants. Recently, the weightings of push and p u l l in t h i s process have been more ca r e f u l l y assessed. Alonso, in his paper studying intermetropolitan population flows, reports that in s t a t i s t i c a l studies of migration and various proposed causative factors for the major metropolitan regions of the U.S.A., he found l i t t l e evidence of a corr e l a t i o n between a degradation of home conditions and emigration, i . e . that push i s not an important element for the factors studied (Alcnsc, 197 1, page 6). Of course, he has only included a certain set of factors in these studies, although t h i s set includes such important areas as income, climate, and a measure of the number cf opportunities. There may well be other factors, net considered 26 in Alonso's study, that are important in pushing a migrant away. Nevertheless, Alonso (1971, page 14) fe e l s that push i s a less important factor than "pull-out" through which "the rate of out-migration r i s e s with the number of temptations open to a prospective migrant". Characteristics of Migratory. Flow. Many generalizations concerning migratory movement have been stated as a result of s t a t i s t i c a l study cf migration data. However, since the l i t e r a t u r e on t h i s type of research i s so voluminous, only a few of the more important and interesting results can be presented here. F i r s t , there are those that concern c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s cf the migration stream volumes. Some of Ravenstein's r e s u l t s , such as the ef f e c t of distance on migration streams, are apparently s t i l l acceptable today (Bogue, 1969, pages 755-756). Distance appears to be an attenuating force f c r migration; that i s to say, the number of migrants from a given o r i g i n decreases with distance from that o r i g i n . That i s not to say, however, that the major part of the t o t a l incoming stream at any place w i l l always be from l o c a l sources. It i s conceivable that a part of the t o t a l emigration volume from a major source of migrants may in fact be the only s i g n i f i c a n t immigrating stream for a certain destination area. Two more of Ravenstein's "laws" describe the phenomena of the existence cf a counter- or returning migration stream for every exi s t i n g stream, and state that increase in migration 27 volumes i s brought about in part by technological progress, p a r t i c u l a r l y in the f i e l d s of transportation and communication (Isaac, 1947, page 42). These two points have also been reinforced by more recent studies (e.g. Shryock (1964)). Alonso (1971, page 2) points out that as r u r a l tc urban migration i n the D.S.A. has been a major net movement for a considerable period, and that for r u r a l regions the emigration rates have exceeded the combined immigration and natural increase rates. It i s reasonable to expect that t h i s type of movement w i l l tend to dry up in the near future, and that the major form of migration i n the United States w i l l seen be intermetropolitan. His view i s supported by Richmond (in Jackson, 1969, page 245) who sees t h i s trend as common to pos t - i n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t i e s . Alonso*s analyses show several positive correlations between stream volumes and destination c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s such as size of population, previous immigration volume, income, and better climate. Interestingly, emigration stream volumes are also p o s i t i v e l y correlated with immigration stream volumes, and Alonso (1971, page 7) feels that t h i s tends to give credence to the theory of the existence of a class of people who are more l i k e l y to move, and so move more than once. The positive correlation between previous and current immigration flows may also be considered a reinforcement of Stouffer's theory of "intervening opportunities" (Stouffer, 1940). This ^theory r e l a t e s stream volumes between two given places to the opportunities at the destination and a l l other places no farther from the o r i g i n than the destination. The 28 opportunities at a place ' are measured as the t o t a l of a l l immigration streams at that place in a recent period, each immigrant being assumed to have moved to take advantage of one opportunity. The distance referred to can be conceived as either the r e a l physical distance or a more sophisticated measure such as "Economic distance" (Stouffer, 1960) or "Functional distance" (Brown et a l . , 1970). This theory has proved guite successful i n practice in predicting migration stream volumes*. Cbarajcteristics of the Migrant. It has long been noticed that migrants tend to have c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s d i f f e r e n t from those of the population as a whole. Thus i t can be claimed that migration i s in fact a selective process, supporting the view of those considering that the major causes of migration are the effects of p u l l . The most consistently noticeable c h a r a c t e r i s t i c has been the r e l a t i v e youth of migrants. Jansen (in Jackson, 1 1969, page 63) summarizes research into migrant c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s by gucting various authors who f e e l that this i s the only distinguishing feature of migrants that can alway be expected. There are many diff e r e n t age ranges suggested to define these young migrants, but the general f e e l i n g appears to be to accept the range of 15 to 35 years as containing the ages of most of them. Thomlinsbn (1965, page 227) suggests that the reason for a predominance of youthful migrants i s that people e a r l i e r i n l i f e have less to lose by moving than those who have already put down some more permanent roots., and so they are swayed- by weaker attractions 29 than elder people.. Backing up t h i s hypothesis i s the fact that there i s a smaller but s t i l l noticable clustering of migrants in the post-retirement age group, who may also be construed as finding i t easier to make a break with their home community since the major commitments of job and career now nc longer exist for them. Migrants, and p a r t i c u l a r l y the f i r s t groups cf migrants in a given stream, are usually i d e n t i f i e d as having more schooling than have non-migrants, and as being in a profession rather than a labouring occupation (Thoralinson, 1965, page 228). This may show that migrants are of generally higher i n t e l l i g e n c e , cr or are more aware cf opportunities elsewhere, than non-migrants. In contrast, however, Thomlinson also suggests that those who spend more time becoming formally educated fi n d i t less easy to adjust to the world outside the school, and w i l l tend to be chronic movers as a r e s u l t . Many other common c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of migrants have been described i n various studies in the l i t e r a t u r e . Most cf these, however, are related to the s p e c i f i c stream being investigated, so although the migration process in each stream can be highly se l e c t i v e , i t does not appear that further universal t r a i t s of migrants have been found. Moreover,5 the small number of universal features i s consistent with the premise that a single set of causative factors ascribable to every case does not exis t . So although the investigation into migration has in the past attempted to produce generalizations about the connections 30 between migratory flows and t h e i r causes, i t seems that the ind i v i d u a l nature of the migration process, and the importance of the p a r t i c u l a r o r i g i n and destination, have the effect of confounding these generalizations. Summary. Research in this subject has taken varying forms. The f i r s t studies produced broad descriptive summaries of observed trends of migratory flows and migrants c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , as t y p i f i e d by Ravenstein (Lee, 1969), but t h i s type of study i s also s t i l l popular today, as evidenced by the work cf Pierson (1973), for example. another type of report, perhaps evolved from t h i s descriptive approach, i s the more detailed s t a t i s t i c a l analysis of migratory movement, examples being Shryock's work on population mobility i n the U.S. (Shryock, 1964) or the analyses by George (1970) and Stone (1969) of the Canadian 1961 census data. Contrasting with t h i s type of work i s the t h e o r e t i c a l or a p r i o r i approach, i n which hypotheses are proposed concerning driving forces of migration, these hypotheses being tested by examination of migration data. An example of this approach i s Besher's book on population processes (Besher, 1967). Both these two major types of study have produced useful r e s u l t s , and although d i f f e r i n g opinions of causes of migration have been presented, there i s a surprising amount of underlying agreement among the authors consulted, the differences being mainly those of degree of emphasis of i n d i v i d u a l factors in the 31 migration process, and the amount of generalization attempted. Although migration i s a highly s e l e c t i v e process, i t does not se l e c t the same type of people in each case, and although there are some factors that have been pointed out as causes of migration i n many cases, there appears tc be no set cf factors applicable tc very case. Both of these phenomena are thought to be the r e s u l t of the highly personal nature of the decision to migrate, and the large v a r i a t i o n i n the c r i t e r i a that can be used by each in d i v i d u a l in defining an improvement i n his general condition. One result of t h i s feature of migration i s that although each stream cf migrants entering or leaving a particular place may be quite homogeneous, the t o t a l immigration or emigration flow at that place may be composed of people with widely d i f f e r i n g a t t r i b u t e s . This l a s t point i s most s i g n i f i c a n t for those forming governmental p o l i c i e s concerning migration. 32 liLferences from Chapter 2. 1. Isaac (1947), chapter 2 i s devoted to the h i s t o r i c a l background of migration and i t s study. 2. Lee (1969) i n Jackson (1969) presents a summary of Ravenstein's a r t i c l e . 3. Sjaastad (1962) bases his whole paper cn this assumption . 4. Stouffer (1960) summarizes prediction successes of other researchers who have used his approach. 33 Selected Bibliography for Chapter 2. Abt Associates, Inc. (1970) The Causes of Rural to Urban Migration among the Poor, Office cf Economic Opportunity, Washington. HB1965/A37/1970A (M) Adams, R. (1969) "U.S. Metropolitan Migration: Dimensions and P r e d i c t a b i l i t y " , Proceedings of the Association of American Geographers VolT 1 1969, page 34ffT~G3/A733 <H, G) Alonso, W. (1971) The System of Intermetropolitan Peculation I l o w s ; Working Paper 155, National Commission cn Population Growth and the American Future, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington. HE 1965/A465/1971 (M) Anderson, I. (1966) Internal Migration in Canada 1 9 2 J - 1 9 6 J , Queen's Printer,"Ottawa. HB/1985/A5 (M7~F, S e J ' ~ Eogue, D. (1969) Princi p l e s of Democ[ra£h_y, John Wiley and Sons, New York7~HB881/B564/1969" (M, Se, W) Beshers, j , (1967) Population Processes in Social Systems, The Free Press, New York. ^ Erown, L., Odland, J. , and Golledge, R. (1970) "Migration, Functional Distance, and the Urban Hierarchy", Eccncjic Geography Vol. 46 #3 July 1970, page 47.2ff. Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, The (1972) Population and the American Future, New American Library, New YorkT HB3505/C645/1972 (M) Eaton, J. (ed.) (1969) Migration and Social Welfare, National Association of So c i a l Workers, New York. HB1965/R38/1969 (SW) Friesen, B. (1973) Migration to Vancouver, Unpublished term paper; School of Community and Regional Planning, University of B r i t i s h Columbia. George, M (1970) Internal Migration in Canada, Demccjrajhic Analyses, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , Queen's Printer, Ottawa. HB1989/G495/1970 (A, G, Se, SS, SW) Isaac, J. (1947) Economics of Migration, Kegan, Paul, Trench, Trubner 8 Co.7~London. JV6035/I7 (M) Jackson, J. (ed.) (1969) Migration, Cambridge University Press. JV6035/M54/1969" (Se) Jansen, C. (1969) "Some Sociological Aspects of Migration", in Jackson (1969), page 60ff. 34 Kuznets, S. (1957) "Internal Migration and Economic Growth", Milbank Memorial Fund, Proceedings c f the Annual Conference, vol. 34:3. W1/MI642~34:3 (W)~ Lee, E. (1969) "A Theory of Migration", in Jackson (1969), page 282ff. Mangalam, J . (1968) Human Migration, a Guide to Migration Lit§rature i n English, University of Kentucky Press, Lexington. ZHB 1951/M35/196 8 (SS) M o r r i l l , R. (1965) Migration and the Spread and Growth of Urban SettlementT c7w.~Gleerup, Lund.~HT371/M6 l^T'se) Pierson, G. (1973) The Moving American, A. Knopf, New York. E169.1/P555/1973 (M) Pryor, R. (1971); Internal Migration and Urbanisation, James Cook University" Press, Townsville, AusT~ZHE1951/P796/1971 (SS) Richmond, A. (1969) "Sociology of Migration i n Industrial and Post-Industrial S o c i e t i e s " , in Jackson (1969), page 238ff. Rohrlich, G. (1969) "Economic Cost-Benefit Approaches to Migration", i n Eaton (1969), page 55ff. Senior, C. (1969) "Movers, Migrants, and the National Interest", in Eaton (1969), page 23ff. Shryock, H. (1964) Population Mobility within the United States, Coimunity and Family Study Center, University of Chicago. HB1965/S5 (SW) Simon, H. (1957) Models of Man_: So c i a l and Rational, Wiley S Son, New York. Simmie, J. (1972) The Sociology of Internal Migration, Centre for Environmental Studies, London7~HE2046/S6/S544/1972 (M) Sjaastad, L. (1962) "The Costs and Returns of Human Migration", Journal of P o l i t i c a l Economy v c l . 70 part 2 .Oct. 1962 page~80ff. HB1/J7/V70" (M) Stone, L. (1969) Migration in Canada, Regional Aspects, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , Queen's Printer, Ottawa. HB1989/S8/1969 (Se, SS, SW, ARE, Ge) Stouffer, S. (1940) "Intervening Opportunities: A Theory Relating Mobility and Distance", I j e r i c a n S o c i o l o g i c a l Review Volume 5 December 1940, page 845ff;~HM1/A75 ~(M,~SW, SS, Se, L) Stouffer, S. (1960) "Intervening Opportunities and Competing 35 Mig r a n t s " . J o u r n a l of Regional S c i e n c e , V o l . 2 #1 Spring 1960, page 1 f f ~ H1/J535/v1-2 ~{nj Thcmlinson, B. (1965) P o p u l a t i o n Dynamics, Random House, New York. HB871/T38 (A) Welch, R. (1970) M i g r a t i o n i n B r i t a i n , Centre f o r Urban and Regional S t u d i e s , U n i v e r s i t y of Birmingham, R. and R. C l a r k ; Edinburgh. ZHB2045/W443/1970 (Se, SS) Wertheimer, R. (1970) The Monetary Rewards of M i g r a t i o n w i t h i n the U.S., The Urban I n s t i t u t e , Washington. HB1965/W46/1970 (M) 36 Chapter 3 MIGRATION CONTROLS IN PRACTICE, This chapter w i l l be concerned with examining previous and current p o l i c i e s that have been implemented i n various parts of the world, one r e s u l t of the implementation of which i s a reduction of net immigration i n a given region. This examination i s useful in several ways. It w i l l suggest the broad range of potential methods of achieving control over migration; i t w i l l provide a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n scheme for the analysis of suggested p o l i c i e s ; and in the succeeding chapter, in which the results cf application of the various policy types are presented, i t w i l l suggest f r u i t f u l directions for further investigation. Information Sources. As was mentioned in the previous chapter, concern about migration and p o l i c i e s to a f f e c t i t i s by no means a new or uncommon phenomenon. However, i n contrast with the body of l i t e r a t u r e on the migration process, sources of information concerning the control of migration are few, and the f i e l d i s s t i l l disorganised. It was net u n t i l quite recently that planning research paid much attention to t h i s area, but now interest in the subject does appear to be r i s i n g , p a r t i c u l a r l y at the l o c a l planning l e v e l . Much of the available material sees i t s e l f as being concerned with "control of growth", often with l i t t l e understanding as to what type of growth i s being controlled. 37 population, t e r r i t o r i a l , or economic. However, there do appear to be r e l a t i o n s h i p s , not jet well understood, between these three types, so that measures adopted to affect one type of expansion often have effects on the others. Measures that have an e f f e c t on migration have been extracted from such material for presentation here. C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of Control Measures. P o l i c i e s designed to r e s t r i c t net immigration i n a given region f a l l into three broad categories. F i r s t , there are those which seek to increase the attractiveness of migratory origins in order to discourage resettlement. Second are those which attempt to provide new, a t t r a c t i v e migratory destinations, or to increase the attractiveness of existing destinations, i n order to (re)direct new settlement. Third, there are those which aim to decrease the attractiveness of the destination area i n order to discourage new settlement from occurring within t h i s area. This i s a useful c l a s s i f i c a t i o n scheme, as a l l basic p o l i c i e s f a l l into one of these categories ( p o l i c i e s that seem to overlap these classes are generally combinations of two separate p o l i c i e s ) , and there are usually important differences between two p o l i c i e s from d i f f e r e n t classes, related to implementation j u r i s d i c t i o n , philosophy, cost, etc. accordingly, these classes of policy w i l l be presented separately i n this exposition. Of course, p o l i c i e s that have the effect of reducing net immigration for a given region may be implemented tc produce 38 primary results other than t h i s . Nevertheless, p o l i c i e s examined i n this work w i l l be assumed to have the p r i n c i p a l objective of net immigration reduction for purposes cf analysis. Improving Migratory o r i g i n s . This type of policy i s generally implemented to decrease the volume of certain classes of migration streams. This i s brought about by improving the attractiveness of the origins of those streams, thereby lessening the desire to move f e l t by the residents of those places. This type of measure i s part of the operating procedure of the Department of Regional Economic Expansion of the Government of Canada (D.R.E.E.). One goal of this department i s to attempt to decrease net emigration from areas seen as being economically underdeveloped. The method used to achieve t h i s i s the supplying of government funding to stimulate industry in those areas, i n order to increase employment opportunities there. This i s expected to improve the l i v i n g standards of the residents cf the v i c i n i t y , and so decrease d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n with the area that may lead to emigration^ (Department of Regional Economic Expansion, 1973, pa ge , 2) . Dnless the immigration flow into a protected region i s mainly made up of large streams from a small number of areas, this type of policy w i l l not often be used tc control immigration to a pa r t i c u l a r protected region. The number cf places whose r e s i d e n t i a l environment must be improved to implement such a policy i s usually very large, implying that 39 only a senior government would have the power to carry out the policy at a l l , and the l e v e l of f i n a n c i a l involvement needed would be beyond the c a p a b i l i t i e s of even senior governments in many cases. Improving Alternative Migratory Destinations. —— — — — — One mode of operation that might be used with this c lass of policy i s to establish a small number of areas as centres to which migrants are to be attracted. This approach can be used to divest p o t e n t i a l immigrants of the protected region to such centres, sometimes c a l l e d "growth centres" or "growth poles", and so avoid having them s e t t l e i n the protected region i t s e l f . A l t e r n a t i v e l y , i t may be desired to provide a powerful attraction to encourage increased migration from the protected region into the growth centres. This type of policy can be implemented over a wide range of scale. The most grandiose approach i s that of the New C i t y . New C i t i e s are the r e s u l t of intense government stimulation through massive spending i n the area where the c i t y i s tc be established. In B r a s i l i a , B r a z i l , for example, the government undertook the building of an e n t i r e l y new c a p i t a l , providing much of the employment the protected region are removed, immigration w i l l not occur. Two factors are being undertaken, and l a t e r by means of the c i v i l service jobs that a c a p i t a l generates (Staubli, 1965). Milton Keynes in B r i t a i n i s another example of t h i s policy in action. This New City, under construction halfway between the major metropolises of London 40 and Birmingham, i s intended to re l i e v e the growth pressure on a s i g n i f i c a n t proportion of B r i t a i n ' s i n d u s t r i a l towns and c i t i e s by a t t r a c t i n g large numbers of people to new homes in what was previously farmland. I t i s hoped that the flow of many emigration streams throughout the country w i l l be absorbed by Milton Keynes, r e l i e v i n g the immigration pressure on exis t i n g centres (The Times, 1972/3/24). On a smaller scale i s the. New Town. A New Town policy d i f f e r s from that of a New City i n that a New Town i s generally b u i l t to reli e v e the population pressure on a p a r t i c u l a r centre, rather than cn many centres of the nation in which i t i s b u i l t . The New Town scheme was one of the f i r s t of the external p o l i c i e s those desiring population growth, growth opponents have seldom turned to i t . Garden City movement. The scheme, as i t has evolved i n B r i t a i n , and p a r t i c u l a r l y in r e l a t i o n to London, operates as follows. An area i s chosen and designated as a New Town, t h i s area usually being within a radius of abcut sixty miles from the centre,to be relieved of population pressures. The area may have few or no inhabitants (such as, for example, Basildon i n Essex), or i t may already be an established small town (an example being Hemel Hempstead). A t h i r d variant also e x i s t s , although not usually found i n B r i t a i n , i n which the area chosen already contains a sizable but problem-ridden town which i s to be designated as a growth centre not only tc r e l i e v e population pressures in a neighbouring region but also to improve i t s own l o c a l conditions. This method has been used in the v i c i n i t y of Havana, Cuba and San Juan, Puerto Bico (Gufctheim, 1973^ appendix I I ) . 41 Once the New Town area has been chosen, government, either the council of the c i t y wishing to control i t s growth or the senior government, undertakes the large-scale construction of housing and community f a c i l i t i e s i n the New Town area, while at the same time encouraging industry tc locate there to provide employment f c r the new residents. People are often allocated housing i n the New Town after being chosen from the l i s t of residents of the parent c i t y who require new accommodation. Accommodation for both residents and industry i s usually made available at subsidized low prices, and t h i s , coupled with the fact that the f a c i l i t i e s available are brand new, i s seen as a powerful a t t r a c t i o n for prospective inhabitants, both human and corporate. Extensive planning i s usually undertaken tc maintain the pleasantness of the New Town, and a green belt around the town to prevent urban sprawl i s a common item i n such planning. The r e s u l t hoped for i s the creation of a complete small to medium sized town (usually under 100,000 people). It i s intended that the inhabitants of the town w i l l be former residents of the parent c i t y . The town should also be s u f f i c i e n t l y well planned and managed so that i t can provide a s a t i s f y i n g environment f o r i t s residents. However, the New Town residents w i l l s t i l l be somewhat dependent upon the parent c i t y for certain c u l t u r a l and other higher order amenities 1. On a s t i l l smaller scale, there i s the designation of planned growth areas within or very close to the parent c i t y i t s e l f . In B r i t a i n , t h i s may be seen in the " s a t e l l i t e " communities such as Hainault and Debden in London (Self, 1957, 42 page 59), this type of settlement depending for much cf i t s employment and amenities upon the parent c i t y , and in fact being l i t t l e more than a very large and s l i g h t l y more l a v i s h l y equipped housing development. In other countries, t h i s type cf approach may be seen i n modular, self-contained growth increments (Gufctheim, 1973, appendix I I ) , as are found i n such c i t i e s as Canberra, Australia and Stockholm, Sweden, where new construction i n the c i t y i s directed into designated areas which are planned to receive the c i t y ' s population increase in an house certain classes of business a c t i v i t i e s . Growth increment areas w i l l be defined. As in the other increase of attraction measures, methods used to encourage new residents to move to the s p e c i f i e d areas include subsidized prices for houses, assistance with regard to the actual move, tax concessions, and the general promise of new and better planned f a c i l i t i e s and environments. Reduction of Local Migratory Attraction. In contrast to the other measures, which seek t c increase the attractiveness or a v a i l a b i l i t y of certain areas for residence generally, these measures aim to reduce the attractiveness or a v a i l a b i l i t y of the protected region for residence tc immigrants. The range of measures that can be employed i s large, but can be r e a d i l y c l a s s i f i e d into four d i v i s i o n s : r e s t r i c t i o n of access tc the region by immigrants; reduction or counter-action of the strength of regional p u l l factors; a l t e r a t i o n of the way that the region i s perceived by 43 non-residents, without a l t e r i n g the region i t s e l f ; encouragement of increased emigration to balance immigration, ft) R e s t r i c t i o n of Access. R e s t r i c t i o n of immigrant access i s not a common policy at the regional l e v e l , although i t i s familiar at the national l e v e l . ft common example of t h i s type of policy i s the imposition cf guotas upon the immigration volumes, under which quotas only a set number of immigrants are permitted to enter the controlled area within a cer t a i n time period. This policy i s sometimes modified to specify the number of immigrants that w i l l be permitted from each area of o r i g i n . Two c i t i e s are reported to be using t h i s type of control measure, enforced by the issuance of police permits to those who are permitted to enter the c i t i e s in guestion. They are Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Djakarta, Indonesia (Guttheim, 1973, appendix I I ) . In some j u r i s d i c t i o n s , a choosing procedure i s implemented to admit cert a i n immigrants while refusing access tc others. There are many ways i n which such a choice could be made, but the usual one i s to require cer t a i n s p e c i f i c achievements or attributes of prospective immigrants before they w i l l be admitted. During the 1930s, the State of C a l i f o r n i a refused to admit any immigrant who could not prove that he had a job to go to in the State, for example. At present, the Canadian government employs a "points system" under which various achievements such as education, previous employment experience, etc., are assigned points, immigrants being refused entry to the 44 country unless a certain number cf points have been earned (Ministry of Manpower ..., 1973). An inte r e s t i n g double jeopardy regulation of this nature was imposed in the c i t y of Moscow, U.S.S.R. in the 1940s under which immigration was discouraged by refusing any person employment in the c i t y unless he had a place to l i v e there, while simultaneously refusing a place to l i v e to a l l those not having a job in the area (Parkins, 1953, page 42). Enforcement of r e s t r i c t i o n of entry regulations i s usually carried out by making a l l unauthorized immigration i l l e g a l , with deportation the minimum penalty f o r inhabiting the r e s t r i c t e d area without permission. A variation on t h i s approach involves r e s t r i c t i n g access by the immigrant not to the area as a whole but to certain services the area o f f e r s . A f a m i l i a r example of t h i s form of measure, generally implemented for other reasons than migration control, i s the time of residency many j u r i s d i c t i o n s require before the right to vote i s obtained. If immigrants are a r r i v i n g to take advantage of c e r t a i n amenities within the protected region, then this type of measure could c u r t a i l the a v a i l a b i l i t y of those amenities to newcomers and so remove the reasons for immigration. 9 This type of r e s t r i c t i o n of access might also be considered a form of reduction of p u l l factors (see below). 45 B) Reduction of P u l l Factors. The reasoning behind t h i s type of control i s that i f the incentives for migration into the protected region are removed, immigration w i l l not occur. Two factors are commonly i d e n t i f i e d for control i n t h i s way, a v a i l a b i l i t y of housing and a v a i l a b i l i t y immigrants. The range of measures that can be by discouraging new building or by discouraging more intensive use of e x i s t i n g buildings (e.g. conversion of large houses into apartments). This approach has enjoyed considerable popularity as a growth r e s t r i c t i o n policy. It was in use as far back as 1580, at which time Queen Elizabeth I of England issued a royal proclamation prohibiting new construction within three miles of London, and forbidding occupancy cf houses by more than one f a m i l y 2 . Analogously, employment has been controlled by l i m i t i n g the entrance of new industry into the protected region, or l i m i t i n g the expansion of existing industries there 3. The t c o l s used to implement these controls are similar for both cases. One measure that may be used i s the simple issuance of fewer building permits by the l o c a l authority, or even the r e f u s a l to issue any at a l l . The l a t t e r i s the so-called "moratorium" approach, usually used as a temporary measure while other, more comprehensive, control measures are drawn up and implemented. An example of an area using both these options i s Petaluma, C a l i f o r n i a , which i n 1971 placed a 13 month freeze cn new development, and followed t h i s with a policy of l i m i t i n g building permits issued per year to 500 (Turner, 1973, page 5). 46 Somewhat less r e s t r i c t i v e than refusing to issue building permits are the p o l i c i e s of reducing the d e s i r a b i l i t y or a v a i l a b i l i t y cf new land for construction. One method of doing this i s to refuse to construct u t i l i t y l i n e s necessary for proposed new developments. This measure, coupled with a policy of disallowing construction where u t i l i t i e s are net adeguate, i s designed i n particular to r e s t r i c t the spread of b u i l t up areas outside current boundaries. There are several variations cn this policy, including l i m i t i n g development to that which can be accommodated within the capacity of the current u t i l i t y systems (e.g. Washington, D.C), increasing the charges fcr u t i l i t y hookup (e.g. Boulder, Colorado), and reguiring the developer to pay the f u l l cost of servicing the land (e.g. Louden County, Va.) (Guttheim, 1973, appendix I I ) . a more d i r e c t method i s to establish boundaries outside which certain types of new construction w i l l be r e s t r i c t e d . "Growth boundaries" of t h i s type have been established in Salem and Eugene: in Oregon i n an attempt to halt both urban sprawl and population increase (Finkler, 1972, page 46). This method i s similar to the f a m i l i a r green belt policy, under which construction in a s t r i p of land surrounding a population centre i s severely r e s t r i c t e d to obtain a clear boundary between urban and r u r a l areas. One of the many examples of this policy i s a 5000 acre green belt surrounding Ottawa, Ontario (Guttheim, 1973, page 2). F i n a l l y , there i s what i s possibly the most widely used policy of t h i s type at present, building control by r e s t r i c t i v e U7 zoning. Again there i s a wide variety of measures that could be used in t h i s area, the simplest being to set low densities i n i t i a l l y , or to reduce the currently permitted densities. Among the many cases of t h i s policy in use i s that cf P a c i f i c Beach, C a l i f o r n i a , where multiple family densities were reduced to bring the t o t a l allowed population down from 79,000 to 36,000 (Turner, 1973, page 8). Industry has been controlled in a si m i l a r manner by zoning tc exclude new construction that would house certain classes of business a c t i v i t i e s . Another type of zoning r e s t r i c t i o n , recently applied in several communities to l i m i t the development of more f a c i l i t i e s for industry or housing i s the control of size (height and bulk) of buildings. This has been used not only to l i m i t the number of people that can be accommodated either as residents cr employees, but also to obtain some control over the appearance of the built-up areas of the community. Places where th i s type of policy i s in use include San Francisco, C a l i f o r n i a ; Bculder, Colorado; and Washington, D.C. (Guttheim, 1973, appendix II). When an authority discovers that i t i s not expedient to reduce what are seen as the d i r e c t causes cf immigration, i t may decide to counterbalance these attractions by reducing other benefits the community without a l t e r i n g the region i t s e l f . One way in which th i s may be carried out i s to adopt a fixed l e v e l of spending on certain community services. As the community population increases under th i s r e s t r i c t i o n on spending, so the l e v e l of service per capita usually drops. It shculd be pointed out that t h i s often occurs without any intent on behalf of the <48 lo c a l a u t h o r i t i e s simply due to lack of money, but nonetheless i t s t i l l has the ef f e c t of reducing the community's at t r a c t i o n to immigrants. A d e f i n i t e cutback i n services may be i n t e n t i o n a l l y employed i n an e f f o r t to discourage immigration. An instance of service r e s t r i c t i o n to achieve this end was reported in Japan, where the control of ratio n t i c k e t s was used in an attempt to r e s t r i c t migration (Agency for International Development, 1968, page 10). Another way i n which such a policy might operate i s to place r e s t r i c t i o n s upon the l i f e s t y l e of l o c a l residents that may not be acceptable to prospective immigrants. As an example of t h i s type, in some island areas and parts of certain c i t i e s , the use of cars i s forbidden. This could be interpreted as discouraging potential new residents who are not prepared to give up using a car i n order to l i v e there. C) Alteration of Immigrant Perception. The difference between t h i s policy type and that above i s that the protected region i t s e l f i s unchanged here. Advertising, persuasion, and general public relations are used instead to reduce the desire of prospective immigrants to s e t t l e in the region. Although this has long been a method used by those desiring population growth, growth opponents have seldom turned to i t , However, there i s a recent example of i t s use tc discourage 49 immigration in the oft-reported statement of the Governor of Oregon to the e f f e c t that v i s i t o r s were welcome, but new residents were no t 4 . D) Encouragement of Emigration. This l a s t type of i n t e r n a l measure i s somewhat similar to the resettlement p o l i c i e s discussed as external measures, except that as an internal measure,' this type of policy includes no plan to establish centres for the emigrants to move to, but instead simply encourages them to leave the protected region. Encouragement of emigration i s more usually applied to industry than to people.directly, often because the land the industry occupies i s wanted for other purposes, or as part of a reduction of employment policy. Measures used may be either coercive, in the form of increases i n taxes, or expropriation of f a c i l i t i e s , or non-coercive, i n the form of programs to aid in the relocation process or to show the advantages cf relocation. London, England, through the Location of Offices bureau, has been carrying out a policy of encouraging decentralization cf businesses to locations outside London by helping companies with the corporate planning necessary for such a move, and running an advertising program promoting i n d u s t r i a l relocation by showing the advantages of operating in a smaller community. On the ether hand, Vancouver, as part of the False Creek redevelopment, has refused to renew leases on certain i n d u s t r i a l land in order to force the relocation of the industries located there. If relocation within the l o c a l area i s discouraged, this type of 50 policy w i l l serve to increase emigration. Summary. Many places throughout the world are either currently involved in trying to l i m i t t h e i r population s i z e , or have attempted to do so in the past. The range of methods employed i s large, but can be readi l y c l a s s i f i e d into four d i v i s i o n s : n Methods to improve home areas of potential immigrants of the protected region; methods to esta b l i s h alternative destinations for potential immigrants or to r e s e t t l e current residents of the protected region; and methods to simply decrease the attractiveness of the protected region to immigrants. Perhaps the greatest value of such a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n scheme arises when evaluation of a proposed policy i s reguired. This evaluation would be reduced to a much simpler problem i f the policy were determined to be a member of a class of p o l i c i e s cf which the general benefits and costs of application were already known. The evaluation need then only concern i t s e l f with the det a i l s of application of the policy under study, rather than with the general p r i n c i p l e s of the policy*s operation. The examination of the costs and benefits associated with the policy classes and subclasses described above i s presented in the next chapter. 51 References from Chapter 3. 1. See Self (1957) for a general description of the workings of the B r i t i s h New Towns policy. 2. Rasmussen (1934) page 68. The proclamation reads "her majesty ... doth ... command a l l ... persons ... tc desist ... from any new buildings of any house or tenement within three miles from any gate of the said c i t y of London, to serve for habitation or lodging for any person, where no former house hath been ... and also to forbear from l e t t i n g ... any more families than one only ... to inhabit from henceforth i n any house ...". 3. "industry" here includes both production plants and a c t i v i t i e s that employ only o f f i c e workers. 4. Finkler (1972), page 45. Governor McCall's statement reads "Come and v i s i t us again and again. But for heaven's sake don't come here to l i v e " . 52 Selected Bibliography for Chapter 3. fl9ency for International Development (1968) The New Urban Debate, proceedings of the P a c i f i c Conference on Urban Growth, Washington. Department of Regional Economic Expansion (1973) Annual Report 2221~2Zi Information Canada, Ottawa. Finkler, E. (1972) Nongrgwth as a Planning Alternative, Planning Advisory Service report number 283, American Society of Planning O f f i c i a l s , Chicago. Guttheim (1973) Experience in the Reduction and l i m i t a t i o n of Urban and Regional Growth P o l i c i e s , unpublished report commissioned by the Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t . Ministry of Manpower and Immigration (1973) Information Sheet, Canada Immigration. Standards for Selecting Immigrants, Ministry of Manpower and Immigration Information Service, Ottawa. Parkins, M. (1953) C i t j Planning i n Soviet Russia, University cf Chicago Press.~Z5942/P3/1953~ (f) Rasmussen, S. (1934) London the Unique City, M.I.T. Press, Cambridge. DA677/R273/1967 ~{Se) Self, P. (1957) C i t i e s i n Flood, Faber and Faber, London. * NA18 5/S3 IFf Staubli, W. (1965) B r a s i l i a , Universe Books, New York. NA857/B7/S8/1965 (F) Times, The (1972) "Milton Keynes — City of the Future", March 24, 1972, supplementary pages i to i v . Turner, C. (ed.) (1973) Managed Growth, Urban Research Corporation, Chicago. 53 Chapter 4 EVALUATION OF CONTBOL POLICIES, As was demonstrated i n the l a s t chapter, many p o l i c i e s have been suggested to obtain a reduction in net regional immigration, and doubtless more w i l l be put forward in the future. In order to determine which, i f any, of these p o l i c i e s are worthy of implementation, there must be a method by which they can be evaluated and compared. This chapter f a l l s into two parts. The f i r s t i s the development of c r i t e r i a for the evaluation of control p o l i c i e s . The second applies these c r i t e r i a to the p o l i c i e s described in the preceding chapter. The same c r i t e r i a w i l l also be used to evaluate control measures to be suggested i n the succeeding chapter. The Method of Policy Evaluation. Control p o l i c i e s w i l l be evaluated as follows. Specifications and c r i t e r i a w i l l be developed which would describe the features of an i d e a l policy, i f cne existed. Proposed p o l i c i e s w i l l be subjectively examined for their degree of conformance to each of these i d e a l features, in terms cf the effects the policy produces, so that a comparison in terms of the d e s i r a b i l i t y of each may be obtained. Because of the subjective nature of the evaluation, no numerical rating system w i l l be used. 54 Evaluation C r i t e r i a . There are three basic c r i t e r i o n areas that w i l l be used for evaluation. The f i r s t i s concerned with the effectiveness of p o l i c i e s . The c r i t e r i a here are as fellows: 1) fi control policy should bring about a decrease in net immigration, beginning at, or within a specified time af t e r , i t s implementation. 2) This decrease should be sustainable for however long i t i s desired to maintain i t . 3) The volume of immigration should be adjustable under the policy to any desired l e v e l below the unregulated volume, including producing net emigration, i f this effect i s wanted. Of reduction of p u l l factors (see below).ce net immigration may produce negative feedback e f f e c t s . Reduced immigration to a region could improve the l i v a b i l i t y of the region to the extent that emigration rates would decline. S i m i l a r l y , an increase in emigration might make the region more att r a c t i v e to immigrants. However, the strength of such ef f e c t s , i f they e x i s t , has not been ascertained. The second area concerns i t s e l f with possible effects of policy adoption upon those people who are already residents cf the region under regulation. The single c r i t e r i o n here i s that a control measure should produce minimal s i g n i f i c a n t detrimental effects upon the l i v i n g conditions cf these current residents. Some of the detrimental e f f e c t s are: fi r i s e in the cost of l i v i n g , an increase in unemployment rates, a degradation of the physical environment. Notice that the effects being referred to are those d i r e c t l y attributable tc the policy, not those stemming from the reduction of population growth in the region. / 55 The l a t t e r e f f e c t s would presumably be weighed before a decision i s made to embark on a program of net immigration reduction. The necessity of adopting t h i s c r i t e r i o n stems from the reasoning behind i n s t i t u t i n g any immigration control policy at a l l . Such a policy would be implemented tc help to maintain or improve the condition of the environment of the protected region or the l i v i n g conditions of the inhabitants. fl control policy should therefore cause minimal degradation in these conditions. The l a s t c r i t e r i o n area i s that of the p o l i t i c a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y of p o l i c i e s . This i s a complex area, and w i l l be treated s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t l y from the two areas discussed above. If there i s tc be popular perception of a proposed policy as b e n e f i c i a l , i t i s f i r s t necessary that the people tc whom the policy i s to be applied should generally agree with the goals the policy i s intended to achieve. If t h i s i s not the case, then any r e s t r i c t i o n s imposed by the policy i n order tc achieve i t s goals w i l l be found to be unacceptable. The intended goal of the p o l i c i e s to be evaluated in t h i s chapter i s the reduction of net immigration to a given region. For purposes of evaluation, i t w i l l be assumed that, within this region, there i s widespread acceptance of the d e s i r a b i l i t y cf such a reduction, so that p o l i c i e s can be compared by considering the burden of the r e s t r i c t i o n s each imposes. Stringent r e s t r i c t i o n s are not necessarily a bad feature of a policy. However, they must be counterbalanced by strong public desire to pursue the policy's goals, and also by high 56 policy effectiveness. If either of these two requirements i s not met, then there w i l l be l i t t l e perceived gain obtained frcm policy implementation, while cost i n terms of reduction of personal freedoms w i l l be seen as high. It i s also assumed that residents of other regions have neutral feelings towards net immigration reduction in the given region, so that any r e s t r i c t i o n s imposed on them by proposed p o l i c i e s w i l l be considered to be undesirable by these people. It w i l l be p a r t i c u l a r l y necessary tc consider the feelings of these people where a j u r i s d i c t i o n higher than that of the region i t s e l f would have to be calle d upon to implement a proposed policy, since such a j u r i s d i c t i o n must consider the reactions of a l l people within i t s boundaries, not just these a policy i s designed to a s s i s t . The second c r i t e r i o n area described above, that of i n t e r n a l e f f e c t s , has a bearing on t h i s discussion too. although there may be general acceptance of the goals of a proposed policy, there can s t i l l be a general r e j e c t i o n of the side effects that the implementation of the policy may produce. One of the important types of e f f e c t to be avoided w i l l be mentioned here as an example — complexity, bureaucratic i n e f f i c i e n c y and slowness, and general red tape should be kept tc a minimum. These are very costly items as far as public acceptance of policy i s concerned, and they are almost always irrelevant to the goals of the policy considered. Connected with the concept of public acceptance i s that of l e g a l i t y . any new policy should comply with standards cf 57 regulation that are acceptable to the population of application. In human communities, these standards are usually expressed by the law pertaining both to the a c t i v i t y to be controlled, and to types of control acceptable in general. However, since these laws themselves are the r e s u l t of community attitudes in the past, i t i s possible that the laws in guestion no longer represent current public opinion. The requirement of an alte r a t i o n i n the law for the introduction of a proposed policy does not necessarily rule out that policy as a p o s s i b i l i t y , but i t w i l l add an important d i f f i c u l t y to the introduction of the policy. As a result of the foregoing discussion, i t i s apparent that the p o l i t i c a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y of a policy i s a balance between the public's desire to achieve the goals of the policy, and the cost effectiveness of the policy i t s e l f . The costs include both monetary costs and r e s t r i c t i o n s cn personal freedom. I t i s not p r a c t i c a l to evaluate proposed p o l i c i e s with respect to p o l i t i c a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y on the basis cf t h e i r conformance with a set of simple c r i t e r i a . Instead, the evaluation w i l l proceed as follows: i t w i l l be assumed that there i s general public acceptance of the d e s i r a b i l i t y cf some form of migration control. P o l i c i e s w i l l then be compared on the basis cf the stringency of the control measures used, the costs imposed, and the community attitudes towards the type of controls adopted. The p o l i t i c a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y of each policy w i l l be discussed as i t relates to residents of the protected region, and also as i t relates to non-residents of that region. 58 Evaluation of Control Measures. Improving Migratory Origins. 1) Effectiveness. If people are well s a t i s f i e d with t h e i r present home areas, they w i l l be much less l i k e l y to move, and so w i l l be less l i k e l y to become a problem for some destination area. However, the provision of similar attractions at heme as are available in p o t e n t i a l migratory destinations i s net always possible. I f a person i s considering moving because of c l i m a t i c reasons, or because he wants to l i v e nearer to certain r e l a t i v e s or friends, no amount of extra spending on physical environmental improvements or the provision of s o c i a l amenities can provide these changes at his current home. He w i l l net even be much influenced by t h i s type of program i f the considered destination i s a region which already has such improvements and such improvements are not the primary reason he i s considering moving. Also, i t w i l l often not be possible to carry out improvement programs i n some of the migration o r i g i n s i f they are i n other countries. The national governments of those countries would probably resent such an intrusion into their a f f a i r s , or they might have t h e i r own p o l i c i e s that would c o n f l i c t with such improvements. This type of policy can therefore produce only a limited reduction of net immigration, as i t can only a f f e c t a portion of a l l the prospective migrants. However, the deterrent to 59 emigration from the origins that are improved should continue to act upon some prospective migrants from those areas for some time. In this sense the reduction in flows achieved i s sustainable, but i t may well be necessary to provide further improvements at various i n t e r v a l s to maintain the perception of - the greater attractiveness of the home areas. adjustment of such a program can be achieved, but only by a l t e r i n g the amount of improvement provided. To reduce the flow of immigrants s t i l l further, more origins would have tc be improved, or the same origins further improved. To produce net emigration from the protected region with t h i s type of measure, the o r i g i n s would have to be so much improved that they would become destinations for emigrants from the protected region. 2) Internal Effects. There i s only one detrimental effect to residents of the protected region from t h i s p o l i c y , but i t i s r considerable. The enormous price of the improvements that this type of measure requires must be paid, and a portion of that payment w i l l almost c e r t a i n l y be required from the region to which migration i s being reduced. Moreover, the costs incurred are not readily correlated with expected decreases in immigration. There i s no r e l i a b l e method of predicting whether improvements planned would actually be a deterrent to prospective migrants, especially as the conditions at both the o r i g i n and destination of a proposed move are continually changing. This type of policy has in fact seldom been used, mainly due tc the very large public expenditures required. 60 3) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (Internal). This type of measure has generally good public acceptance within the protected region. No r e s t r i c t i o n s are placed on those who wish to migrate to thi s region, and people elsewhere are seen to benefit by having t h e i r home areas improved. t») P o l i t i c a l A cceptability (External). Public acceptance outside the protected region would probably also be good, although there might be some changes i n t h i s s i t u a t i o n cnce such a policy had been in use for a time. For example, the people in the areas being "improved" might come to resent a l l the "improvements" being forced upon them by the government in question, and since t h i s government would be prov i n c i a l or national i n Canada, the voices of those people would be heard by the p o l i t i c i a n s responsible for the policy. Also, the mounting costs mentioned above could again become a contenticus point, and t h i s outcome could occur within the protected region as well as outside i t . Nevertheless, since t h i s type of policy does attempt to provide d e f i n i t e improvements to home environments, there should be few p o l i t i c a l d i f f i c u l t i e s unless the spending was thought to be getting out of hand. Improving Alternative Migratory Destinations. 1) Effectiveness. P o l i c i e s of t h i s type have in general had small success in bringing about a reduction i n net immigration to a par t i c u l a r region, although they may have been successful in improving housing conditions f o r seme people. The p r i n c i p a l 61 reason for t h i s are the cost and d i f f i c u l t y of administering the design and construction of projects on as large a scale as those which must be carried out in the alternative destination areas, in order to achieve a s i g n i f i c a n t reduction. The s u s t a i n a b i l i t y of reductions obtained by such p o l i c i e s i s poor. S u s t a i n a b i l i t y here can only be obtained by continuous investment in new community production, as once a home in a new community i s occupied, i t loses i t s c a p a b i l i t y to reduce further population increase in the protected region. This i s a serious drawback, since apart from implying the need f c r a continuous large flow of money, i t means that the construction cf homes for the (re)directed migrants must be a continuous process, while the policy i s i n operation. Even i f suitable s i t e s for these homes can be found, which cannot be assumed, the organizational d i f f i c u l t i e s cf such a program can be expected tc cause delays in construction* and so reduce the effectiveness of the program. Moreover, rather than discouraging migration with this type of policy, the implementing body may be encouraging i t . Ey providing new communities and i n v i t i n g residents to move in, i t i s putting the thought of migration f c r self betterment into more and mere peoples' minds. In t h i s way, i f new community construction halts, the immigration pressure upon the protected region may return with increased vigour due to this popularization of the process that causes the problem in the f i r s t place. As with the "Improvement of Origins" p o l i c i e s described above, adjustment of the p o l i c i e s currently being evaluated can 62 be achieved by a l t e r i n g the amount of new community construction. Such a program can therefore be said to be adjustable, with a certain lag, but i t should be remembered that adjustment towards further decrease of net immigration to the protected region may not in fact be possible because cf shortage of available money for investment i n the program. 2) Internal Effects. As with improvement-of-origin p o l i c i e s , the p r i n c i p a l detrimental e f f e c t of t h i s policy type upon protected region inhabitants i s the cost of the program as a whole. In fact, the s i t u a t i o n under a new community policy might tend tc be p a r t i c u l a r l y d i f f i c u l t i n t h i s regard, since there i s often only one region that i s tc be protected by each program. As a r e s u l t , the proportion of the cost that the residents of that region are expected to pay i s l i k e l y tc be higher than with the previously discussed policy type. The costs would be high. Every migrant diverted from, or attracted from, the protected region must be provided with a l l the essentials of l i f e — housing, employment, etc. Moreover, these essentials must be provided at subsidized prices, and often extra attractions must be provided as well to convince these migrants that they should choose the alternative area as their new home region. If the migration streams in guestion are of s i g n i f i c a n t volume, then the cost and organizational problems connected with supplying•these commodities become enormous, and programs of this type often f a l l behind as a r e s u l t 1 . Moreover, most programs of t h i s type must be carried out 63 largely by the government alone,: without the help of private enterprise. Public expense seems almost unavoidable for the development of a new community, since a town i s being created where one had not previously been found to be economically f e a s i b l e , at least i n recent history. at the very least, strong economic incentives to private developers w i l l be needed to start such a project, while in most cases of thi s policy in action, government has in fact paid the lio n * s share of the construction costs 3) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (Internal). Although new community po l i c i e s share with improvement-of-origin p o l i c i e s the ch a r a c t e r i s t i c " that they are creating improved r e s i d e n t i a l environments for at least some people, they are not as free of p o l i t i c a l problems as the l a t t e r . The p r i n c i p a l p o l i t i c a l d i f f i c u l t y within the protected region for t h i s type of policy i s probably the cost of the program. Even i f a s i g n i f i c a n t reduction in net immigration were achieved, resentment could build as a r e s u l t of the higher taxes being levied for the purpose of giving other pecple new homes. This resentment would be p a r t i c u l a r l y d i f f i c u l t to f o r e s t a l l i f there were s i g n i f i c a n t competition for the new homes being b u i l t , so that regional residents could not easily move into them. 64 4) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (External) . Several p o l i t i c a l problems could arise outside the protected region as as re s u l t of the implementation of t h i s type of policy. F i r s t , there i s the problem of possible detrimental e f f e c t s that the creation of the new community may have on the area i n which i t i s b u i l t . The land used may be farmland or in an area of natural beauty, with the cbvious attendant drawbacks accompanying the urbanisation of such an area. Certainly, a plan for a new community to be developed under t h i s type of program should endeavour not to use such lands, but more suitable s i t e s may simply be unavailable i n the building areas considered. In any event, any new community construction ,will generally mean the introduction of urbanisation into a new area. Since there i s a s i g n i f i c a n t body of opinion opposing the further urbanisation of ru r a l areas, t h i s process may run into p o l i t i c a l opposition. Second, there i s the problem of possible detrimental effects upon the previous residents of the area i n which the new community i s constructed. Although these residents w i l l be few in number compared to the people being housed in the new community, they may also be a p o l i t i c a l force tc be reckoned with. l a s t , the s o c i a l consequences of instant communities should be examined. There i s more to a community than the physical buildings that house i t . In a new town, incoming residents are often thrown into a s o c i a l l y amorphous s i t u a t i o n . Is i t reasonable to expect these people tc be happy and form a comfortable set of new s o c i a l interactions? Some.think not. 65 Alcnso (1970, page 39) believes that "The p r i n c i p a l flaw in new town proposals l i e s i n an underestimation of the s c c i a l and economic integration ... which constitute a metropolis". If governments have trouble in making even incremental improvements' to ex i s t i n g communities successfully, the l o g i c of attempting the much more d i f f i c u l t problem of designing a new community may well be f a u l t y . The s o c i a l problems that may occur within the new communities generated under t h i s type of program could cause serious p o l i t i c a l problems for the sponsors of the program. Reduction of l o c a l Migratory Attraction. A) R e s t r i c t i o n of Access. 1) Effectiveness. P o l i c i e s to reduce immigrant access to the protected region are perhaps the most e f f e c t i v e of a l l , although there are serious problems concerning their a c c e p t a b i l i t y . The most extreme case of such a "policy, the Ber l i n wall, i s c l e a r l y e f f e c t i v e i n l i m i t i n g migration, as evidenced by the p u b l i c i t y produced by attempts to cross i t . At a less d r a s t i c l e v e l , many people are aware of Canada's immigration regulations, and are also aware of people's being refused entry or being deported as a result of these regulations. Restricting immigrant access w i l l c l e a r l y reduce net immigration immediately. An adequately policed policy could not be ignored by immigrants. Further, the reduction would be sustainable as long as the r e s t r i c t i o n s were continued. The reduction could be readily adjusted by a l t e r i n g the number cf 66 immigrants permitted entry, although whether net emigration could be produced would depend upon whether emigration was already taking place. 2) Internal E f f e c t s . The hardships that l i m i t i n g access impose upon protected region inhabitants are cf two types. The f i r s t i s that people whom residents wish to move into the region may be forbidden to do so. However, this hardship could be reduced by means of careful design of the mechanics being used in a given instance of implementation. A "points system", or some other method of permitting prospective immigrants to earn the right to enter as new residents, could probably be designed to lessen t h i s type of d i f f i c u l t y . The second hardship concerns the increase in bureaucracy and regulation that t h i s form of measure wculd impose. In order to determine whether an incoming person i s an immigrant, a v i s i t o r , or merely a returning resident, to ascertain whether immigrants requesting admission are suitable, and tc detect i l l e g a l entry, some increase in c i t i z e n contact with officialdom for purposes of enforcement appears unavoidable. Again, the way in which enforcement i s carried cut bears s i g n i f i c a n t l y cn the effects perceived by the region's residents, but the design cf a method of implementation that would be acceptable in thi s regard i s a d i f f i c u l t problem. 67 3) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (Internal). This type cf measure may face problems cf p o l i t i c a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y for several reasons. The types of enforcement measure that might have tc be used, such as i d e n t i t y cards for regional residents, would prcbably be repugnant to many people. Also, the use of access r e s t r i c t i o n i s unfamiliar at smaller-than-national scales. The powers to establish such a program at a l o c a l l e v e l may not be available to the j u r i s d i c t i o n wishing to introduce i t . 4) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (External). If a higtier j u r i s d i c t i o n must implement the policy chosen, then residents of areas outside the protected region who f e e l strongly about the reduction of their ease of access to thi s region may attempt to persuade the implementing body to remove the r e s t r i c t i o n s . S i m i l a r l y , residents of ' other areas may consider adopting r e s t r i c t i v e p o l i c i e s of their own as r e p r i s a l s against residents of the protected region. There i s also a problem that i s faced not only by this policy type but also by the following two types discussed. The problem referred to i s that there i s doubt as to the general acceptability (and l e g a l i t y , in the United States) cf regions within a country l i m i t i n g immigration by r e s t r i c t i v e p o l i c i e s . For example, in the United States, i t has been held that exclusionary zoning violates the "right to t r a v e l " . L e g i s l a t i o n adopted in one region to avoid population problems there by transferring these problems to other areas has been held tc be in v a l i d i n some cases (Lamm, 1972, pages 9-11). 68 L a s t l y , such a policy discriminates between immigrants and residents in a particular area. It appears that i t i s this discrimination that gives these p o l i c i e s their effectiveness, yet t h i s type of discrimination may be repugnant to some people. Legally, i t appears that t h i s type of discrimination i s not forbidden in Canada i f the immigrants to a region are coming frcm outside the country (Brossard, 1967, pages 59-72), but no reference was found that discussed the case of r e s t r i c t i n g the migration of Canadians within Canada. B) Reduction of P u l l factors. 1) Effectiveness. If a l l the attractions bringing people tc an area were removed, i t seems sensible to suppose that people would cease a r r i v i n g . However, i t may not be possible (cr desirable) tc remove or reduce the attractiveness cf certain important features, so in some cases this method cannct even be applied to the problem. This i s e s p e c i a l l y true i f important attractions include climate or the presence of friends or r e l a t i v e s of the prospective immigrant, for example. Nevertheless, under the ideal conditions of a few major adjustable attractions, this type of policy should be able to bring about a reduction in net immigration. The reduction would be sustainable as long as controls were maintained. Eurthermore, the reduction would be adjustable by means of applying more, or less, stringent regulation to attractions being controlled. 69 2) Internal E f f e c t s , There are, however, s i g n i f i c a n t detrimental effects of t h i s policy on residents of the current region, A reduction of regional attractiveness to immigrants usually reduces the l i v a b i l i t y of the region for i t s residents also. Also, i f only some of the attractions are being reduced, i t i s quite possible that the other uncontrolled attractions w i l l continue to bring some new immigrants, resulting in undesirable increased competition for the controlled amenities. Lastly, i f there were many different attractions to be reduced, massive intervention i n the economy of the protected region would probably be necessary to implement th i s kind of policy. Interventions on such a scale can be expected to produce unforeseen side e f f e c t s , and there i s no reason to suppose that these would benefit the l o c a l inhabitants. The unpredictability i t s e l f could be judged a cost by some people. 3) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (Internal). This type cf policy would not be p o l i t i c a l l y acceptable in most areas cf application unless the attractiveness being reduced were of l i t t l e value to the current residents of the area. This would net be the case in most instances, as i t can be reasonably assumed that many of the current residents would have remained i n the area, or migrated to i t , to take advantage of the attractions that would now have to be reduced. 70 i 4) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (External). This policy might also face the previously mentioned problems of l e g a l i t y concerning l i m i t i n g the "right to t r a v e l " and the transfer of the problems cf one community to another community. A-B) Addendum. A variation of methods described in sections A and B above ex i s t s . This method i s the application of reductions in the a v a i l a b i l i t y of s p e c i f i c attractions and other factors of the protected region to immigrants only. Examples of t h i s type of policy would include the establishment of residency requirements for the a c g u i s i t i o n of houses, jobs, etc. 1) Effectiveness. By reducing the a v a i l a b i l i t y tc immigrants only of attractions within the protected region, the d e s i r a b i l i t y of the protected region as a migration destination would c e r t a i n l y be reduced. Where uncontrollable attractions are bringing migrants, counter-incentives could be applied to balance the attractions by reducing the access of immigrants to other desirable features of the region. The policy i s also adjustable, as the degree of immigrant access r e s t r i c t i o n to desirable features can be e a s i l y altered. Net immigration reduction so achieved could be maintained simply by a continued application of the controls. 71 2) Internal Effects. Effects upon protected region inhabitants are much smaller with t h i s measure than under general at t r a c t i o n reduction p o l i c i e s , as the reductions do not apply tc them. However,! as with the p o l i c i e s using r e s t r i c t i o n cf access for the purpose of residence establishment, there remains the problem of immigrant/resident d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n . 3) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (Internal). As with the p o l i c i e s of r e s t r i c t i o n of general access, problems could occur with these p o l i c i e s i f the public i s not in favour of discriminating between residents and immigrants, and i f higher j u r i s d i c t i o n s would have to be persuaded to implement the p o l i c i e s . 4) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (External). This policy type as well would face the afore-mentioned problems cf l e g a l i t y concerning l i m i t i n g the "right to t r a v e l " and bettering one area at the expense cf other areas, and also of possible r e p r i s a l s on the part of other areas. C) Alt e r a t i o n cf Immigrant Perception. 1) Effectiveness, It was seen i n Chapter 2 that a key determinant in migration from one area to another i s the knowledge the migrant has concerning the destination area. If the move contemplated i s of a largely voluntary nature, then a lack of information about a potential destination area, or a knowledge of unattractive features of that area, would tend to decrease the l i k e l i h o o d of that region's being chosen as the 72 actual destination of the move. Of course, such a si t u a t i o n would have a smaller e f f e c t i n the less voluntary types cf move such as corporate job transfers. accordingly, i f i t were possible to reduce the attractiveness of the protected region as perceived by the potential migrant, then t h i s would have an e f f e c t s i m i l a r to, and perhaps stronger than, that produced by reducing the region's actual attractiveness and hoping that potential migrants would hear of the reduction. a policy using p u b l i c i t y campaigns tc bring about th i s change in the immigrants* perception could be adopted. Nevertheless, i t should be remembered that much of a poten t i a l immigrant's information about an area comes from interpersonal communication, which i s very d i f f i c u l t to control. There seem to be few, i f any, cases of negative p u b l i c i t y to reduce immigration being used. However, measures tc achieve the opposite effect are commonly in evidence, Ecoster organizations and t o u r i s t bureaux are continually issuing propaganda e x t o l l i n g the real and imagined virtues of places, with the aim of attrac t i n g v i s i t o r s or new residents. Local and regional government authorities regularly advertise the benefits to industry available from operating in th e i r j u r i s d i c t i o n , and the concessions that would be made to them in return for establishing a new plant in the area. Since advertising i s a method that has been found to be e f f e c t i v e f or many purposes cf behaviour a l t e r a t i o n , i t s application to reducing immigration i s a reasonable suggestion. Since there i s l i t t l e or no experience 73 in such advertising campaigns, proven designs of campaign have not yet been found, although one approach, of course, i s to simply cease emitting positive p u b l i c i t y . A program that could accomplish a change in migrant attitudes would probably be quite e f f e c t i v e in reducing net immigration. However, since attitudes are not e a s i l y affected beyond introducing positive or negative opinions, the a d j u s t a b i l i t y of t h i s approach would be limited to regulation of the size and type of audience the p u b l i c i t y i s exposed to, and the i n t e n s i t y of exposure. Further, since the prediction cf the effects of such p u b l i c i t y i s not r e l i a b l e , i t i s not l i k e l y that a fine tuning of such a program to reduce net immigration by a s p e c i f i c a l l y desired amount could be achieved. On the other hand, i f the program were an i n i t i a l success, the drop in those considering the protected region as a migratory destination might be sustainable, as unless new information i s received, the negative attitude would possibly remain for some time simply through i n e r t i a . Also, the existence of a s i g n i f i c a n t number of potential migrants having such a negative attitude as a re s u l t of t h i s type cf program should help create a s i m i l a r attitude in the other potential migrants they communicate with, so reinforcing and sustaining the desired e f f e c t . 74 2) Internal E f f e c t s . Deleterious e f f e c t s upon protected region residents would come frcm the decline that would probably be experienced in a l o c a l t o u r i s t industry, and in any ether l o c a l industries requiring, i n the course of th e i r business, p u b l i c i t y campaigns promoting the virtues of the protected regicn. This decline could sipread economic problems i n the area, although the severity of these problems would depend upon the size cf the industries effected, and the strength of the effects those industries f e l t . 3) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (Internal). If the i n d u s t r i a l decline mentioned above was to seriously e f f e c t the regional economy, t h i s policy would soon become p o l i t i c a l l y unacceptable to l o c a l residents. Also, some l o c a l residents might d i s l i k e t h i s type of policy because of their feelings of pride in their home region, and an accompanying desire to boast about i t tc others they consider less fortunate; although this dees net seem to be a very serious objection. ^ Of course, i f the r e s t r i c t i o n of information flow were to reach censorship l e v e l s , s i g n i f i c a n t p o l i t i c a l problems would be l i k e l y to appear. 4) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (External). Mo p a r t i c u l a r external p o l i t i c a l problems are expected to accompany the adoption cf this type cf policy. 75 D) Encouragement of Emigration. Measures to encourage emigration from a region f a l l into two categories, those providing incentives to leave and those applying disincentives tc stay. Unless an attempt i s being made to cause a s p e c i f i c c l a s s of people to leave, most disincentives to staying would be applied to the region as a whole, and so are very similar to the reduction of attr a c t i o n p o l i c i e s discussed above. Therefore t h i s evaluation i s only concerned with programs offering incentives to emigrate. 1) Effectiveness. One of the factors that the effectiveness cf such programs w i l l depend on i s the propensity tc emigrate already existing among the region's residents, As i t can be assumed that a s i g n i f i c a n t proportion of any population would be prepared to emigrate i f the rewards of a move were made high enough, this type of policy could be quite e f f e c t i v e , whether th i s outflow would balance any existing immigration would of course depend partly upon the immigration volume. Effectiveness would drop i f the vacancies caused by departing emigrants increased the attractiveness of the area to prospective immigrants s i g n i f i c a n t l y , and so increased the immigration flow. This could counteract any ef f e c t t h i s policy would otherwise have on net immigration. The emigration flow could be adjusted by regulating the le v e l of the incentives being offered. The s u s t a i n a b i l i t y of th i s flow could not be guaranteed, however, since one result of implementing an incentive program might well be to exhaust the 76 supply of emigrants w i l l i n g to leave at a given incentive l e v e l , so that an increase in incentives would be necessary tc maintain the flow. This might not occur, on the other hand, i f alterations in the personal l i v e s of the region's residents, brought about by entry i n t o a new stage in the l i f e cycle, for example, were causing new people to enter the class of potential emigrants at a steady rate. Furthermore, former immigrants might also be another source of a supply cf potential emigrants, but the policy would have to incorporate provisions preventing immigration for the purpose of receiving emigration incentives. 2) Internal E f f e c t s . The negative e f f e c t s upon protected region residents stemming from the offering cf emigration incentives are s i m i l a r to those of the p o l i c i e s of improving migration origins discussed above. To provide a positive incentive to migrate would require the supplying of goods or services to the emigrant, which items would have to be paid for. Again, the most obvious source of payment i s the population of the protected region. However, there i s a somewhat more controllable situation under an emigration incentive program. This type of program w i l l generally be of a smaller and more manageable s i z e , and the linkage between incentives bestowed and results achieved i s more measurable and d e f i n i t e . 3) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (Internal). The size of the incentives being given to emigrants might cause resentment to form i n the minds of remaining residents, although i f this resentment became very strong, 5 the resident could eliminate i t 77 by becoming an emigrant himself. Otherwise, problems of p o l i t i c a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y should be miner. 4) P o l i t i c a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y (External). No p a r t i c u l a r external p o l i t i c a l problems are expected to accompany the adoption cf this type of policy. Summary. analysis of the policy types previously discussed has yielded the following findings: 1. Improving Migratory Origins. 1) Effectiveness: limited as a r e s u l t of r e s t r i c t e d a p p l i c a b i l i t y and d i f f i c u l t administration. 2) Internal E f f e c t s : high cost of implementation. 3) P o l i t i c a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y (Internal): good, since an absolute improvement in l i v i n g conditions cf people in general would be produced, but possibly decreasing as costs mounted. 4) P o l i t i c a l acceptability (External): s i m i l a r l y , generally good. 2. Improving alternative Migratory Destinations. 1) Effectiveness: poor, as a r e s u l t of d i f f i c u l t administration and "problems cf s u s t a i n a b i l i t y . 2) Internal E f f e c t s : high cost of implementation. 3) P o l i t i c a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y (Internal): problems because of the high costs of a program to improve the homes of 78 others. 1 4) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (External): problems may e x i s t because of the conversion land to urban use, and because of the probable d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n cf residents cf the new communities generated. 3. Reduction of l o c a l Migratory At t r a c t i o n . A) R e s t r i c t i o n of Access. 1) Effectiveness: generally high. 2) Internal E f f e c t s : Exclusion of desired immigrants i s a p o s s i b i l i t y , and increased bureaucratic interference with t r a v e l almost a certainty. 3) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (Internal): several potential problems concerning discrimination and rejection of the general philosophy of the policy. 4) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (External): l o c a l isolationism could cause problems for the higher j u r i s d i c t i o n implementing t h i s policy, and could also cause r e p r i s a l s by other areas. E) Reduction of P u l l Factors. 1) Effectiveness: poor, because of the d i f f i c u l t i e s of applying s u f f i c i e n t controls. 2) Internal E f f e c t s : serious degradation of the l i v a b i l i t y of the protected region. 3) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (Internal): poor, because of the degradations just mentioned. ( 79 4) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (External): problems similar to those mentioned i n 3 A) 4 above. A-E) Seduction of Immigrant Access to Amenities. 1) Effectiveness: generally high. 2) Internal E f f e c t s : a pot e n t i a l l y ponderous bureaucracy to handle immigrant/resident d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n . 3) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (Internal): as i n 3 A) 3 above. 4) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (External): as i n 3 A) 4 above. C) A l t e r a t i o n of Immigrant Perception. 1) Effectiveness: p o t e n t i a l l y high, but d i f f i c u l t to estimate. 2) Internal E f f e c t s : potential economic problems because cf losses i n tourism and other industries. 3) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (Internal): generally gcod, unless the economic problems mentioned above become severe, or extreme information flow r e s t r i c t i o n s are imposed. 4) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (External): no particular problems. D) . Encouragement of Emigration. 1) Effectiveness: high, i f program can be s u f f i c i e n t l y funded and new immigration increases can be controlled. 2) Internal E f f e c t s : p o t e n t i a l l y high cost. 3) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (Internal): generally good. 4) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (External): no particular 80 problems. Conclusion. None of the p o l i c i e s that have been implemented to date appears to be free of s i g n i f i c a n t problems in the c r i t e r i o n areas discussed. The f a i l u r e s that these problems have caused may well be the reason that planners and p o l i t i c i a n s seem to te reluctant to propose the reduction of net immigration as a regional goal. However, f a i l u r e in the past does not necessarily imply f a i l u r e in the future. It i s the b e l i e f of t h i s author that changes i n the design of certain types cf policy, and the use of p o l i c i e s combining the features cf two or more of the types discussed, can produce p o l i c i e s with fewer problems of detrimental e f f e c t s or p o l i t i c a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y . The next chapter presents examples of p o l i c i e s designed as suggested here. Nevertheless, i t does appear that certain policy types should be abandoned. These are p o l i c i e s that seem tc be inherently i n e f f e c t i v e in producing reductions i n net immigration. I t i s perhaps s i g n i f i c a n t that the types referred to here, those seeking to improve migratory o r i g i n s , to improve alternative migratory destinations, and to reduce p u l l factors, are the types that have been most often used in the past, possibly because of th e i r high i n i t i a l p o l i t i c a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y . The choice of a net immigration reduction policy primarily on the basis cf i t s p o l i t i c a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y i s an i n s u f f i c i e n t method of finding a successful pol i c y . 81 inferences from Chapter Jj4. 1. Self (1957) d e t a i l s the occurrence cf t h i s type cf problem throughout his history of the post war B r i t i s h New Towns pol i c y . Selected Bibliography for Chapter 4, Alonso, W. (1970) "What Are New Towns for ? " , Urban Studies, Volume 7 #1, February 1970, pages 37-55"HTT51/159 (?) Brossard, J . (1967) L*Immigration, Les Presses de l'Universite de Montreal,~Morrtreal7 KM176/B766/1967 (L) Lamm, R. And Davison, S. (1972) "The Legal Control of Ecpulaticn Growth and Distribution in a Quality Environment; The Land Use Alternatives", Denver law Journal, Volume 49 #1, pages 1-51. K1/D52/V49~ (L)~ Self, (1957) C i t i e s in Flood, Faber and Faber, London. NA9185/S3~ (FT 83 Chapter 5 DESIGN OF POLICIES. This chapter draws on the evaluations performed in Chapter 4 to develop some p o l i c i e s that might be successfully applied in the future tc reduce net immigration to a given region. It i s in general very d i f f i c u l t to predict the l e v e l of success of the implementation of untried p o l i c i e s . However, since care has been taken in designing these p o l i c i e s to avoid the problems encountered with previously used p o l i c i e s , the author f e e l s that higher expectations of success seem j u s t i f i e d for these p o l i c i e s than for those previously examined. In the previous chapter, i t was pointed cut that the p o l i t i c a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y of a policy cannot be judged solely cn the basis of i t s compliance to certain c r i t e r i a cf performance. Instead, p o l i c i e s were compared on the basis of the degree cf r e s t r i c t i o n of freedom that was imposed by each. When designing p o l i c i e s , the c r i t e r i a described previously for effectiveness and i n t e r n a l e f fects are readily applied to policy design. However, to aid in the production of a p o l i t i c a l l y acceptable policy, some further c l a r i f i c a t i o n of the features of such a policy i s desirable. accordingly, guidelines for the design of p o l i t i c a l l y acceptable p o l i c i e s are l i s t e d before the proposed p o l i c i e s are presented. These guidelines are general suggestions concerning how to avoid the problems of p o l i t i c a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y discussed in the evaluations performed i n the previous chapter. Eecause of the d i f f i c u l t i e s i n defining a p o l i t i c a l l y acceptable policy, the 84 guidelines represent the author's opinion of how such a policy might be produced. Guidelines for P o l i c y . 1. A policy should pursue only goals that have widespread suppott in the area where the policy i s to be applied. Care should be taken t c ensure that there are nc side effects caused that are i r r e l e v a n t to the goals of the policy. 2. Assuming that tetter performance w i l l aid in the achievement of p o l i t i c a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y , the complexity of a policy, in terms of basic p r i n c i p l e s and mechanics of operation, should be kept to a minimum. The e f f e c t s of a simpler policy are often easier to predict, so that unexpected undesirable e f f e c t s can be more re a d i l y avoided. Also, reduced complexity usually permits increased public understanding of the operation of the policy. 3. Freedom r e s t r i c t i o n s should be minimized. Restrictions should be imposed only when and where necessary, and only upon people whose actions must be controlled to achieve policy effectiveness. Blanket r e s t r i c t i o n s should not be applied simply to ease administration of the policy. 4. The r i g i d i t y of a policy should be kept at a minimum. As few absolute prohibitions of action as possible should be enforced. Since people d i f f e r in t h e i r needs and wants, such prohibitions might be replaced by options of behaviour, or by allowing the right to perform c e r t a i n actions tc be earned or purchased. 85 These guidelines have been kept in mind suring the design of the p o l i c i e s presented in t h i s chapter, but w i l l net be s p e c i f i c a l l y referred to during the discussion of those p o l i c i e s . P o l i c i e s for Consideration. I t i s proposed i n thi s work that migration occurs^ as a res u l t of the perception by a migrant of a personal gain to be achieved by migrating. If thi s model i s accepted, then i t appears that any successful policy f or the reduction of net immigration to a given region must either 1) reduce the amount cf gain that the prospective immigrant perceives tc be obtainable from migrating to the region, or 2) increase the amount of gain that the prospective emigrant perceives to stem from leaving the region. A policy may also use both these approaches simultaneously. For example, i f emigration subsidies were to be used, some form of immigration discouragement might then be necessary tc prevent immigration for the scle purpose cf receiving an emigration subsidy. The desire an i n d i v i d u a l f e e l s to migrate tc a particular destination can be altered in two ways. Hither the attractiveness of migration to the destination area can be altered and the poten t i a l immigrant can be informed of the al t e r a t i o n , or the way in which the i n d i v i d u a l perceives this attractiveness can be altered without any changes being made to the nature of the considered region. The f i r s t p o l i c i e s presented here make use of the l a t t e r approach. 86 EsMiLsiiy. Campaigns. A) Description of Policy. The print and electronic media have been proved to have large e f f e c t s upon the attitudes and behaviour of many people. P o l i c i e s presented in t h i s section would attempt tc use the powers of these media to a l t e r perceptions concerning migration to the protected region. There are several ways in which this might be done. F i r s t , as was mentioned e a r l i e r , the emission of posi t i v e p u b l i c i t y concerning the protected region cculd be reduced. Such p u b l i c i t y might include t o u r i s t brochures, a r t i c l e s and s t o r i e s stressing positive attributes of the protected region, government and private industry advertisements, etc. It may well be more important to a l t e r the style of presentation of much of t h i s material, to reduce the number of positive references to the protected region, than i t i s to prevent the flow of the information i t contains. In fact, r e s t r i c t i o n of information flow would not be desirable in general, even i f i t were possible. It i s unlikely that direct regulation cf p u b l i c i t y of this type could be f e a s i b l y carried out. Methods such as public declaration of government policy, and examples being set in government publications, would probably have to be used instead. Since the t o u r i s t industry and the media themselves are special cases, the government would have to secure their cooperation i f this part of the policy were to be at a l l workable. Since one of the more important means of information flow 87 to prospective immigrants i s that of interpersonal communication, i t would also be helpful i f an ethic could be generated within the protected region cf not spreading rosy images of the area to those l i v i n g outside i t . This ethic would be unlikely to develop unless residents of the protected region could see that they would gain by adopting such a behaviour pattern. They might be induced •to do so by a widespread information campaign explaining the costs accruing tc a l l residents of the area from population growth, and from immigration in p a r t i c u l a r . Since recognition by the residents of the protected region of the d e s i r a b i l i t y of reducing net immigration i s a prerequisite for the success of many p o l i c i e s having that goal, a l o c a l campaign to strengthen the ethic just described might often be part of such p o l i c i e s . As well as reducing the flow of positive p u b l i c i t y , the l o c a l authorities could also carry cn a p u b l i c i t y campaign advertising the negative aspects of the protected region. The area of broadcast of t h i s p u b l i c i t y would be these areas supplying the most migrants to the protected region. The design of t h i s type of campaign might be a very d i f f i c u l t task, as i t appears quite possible that the reverse of the desired e f f e c t could be generated inadvertently. The fact that an area was advertising to reduce immigration could increase inte r e s t in migration to that area, and the negative aspects publicized might not appear so undesirable to people l i v i n g in other places. However, with care, a successful campaign might be 88 . designed. E) Evaluation. This policy was described in less d e t a i l and evaluated in Chapter 4. Increasing the D i f f i c u l t y of Immigration. The actual reduction of the attractiveness of the protected region was rejected i n general as a p o t e n t i a l l y useful policy because, in most cases, the residents of the region would also suffer from the decline in attractiveness. However, i t i s possible to lessen the attractiveness cf migration tc the region without reducing the attractiveness of the region i t s e l f . This approach might be thought of as increasing the economic distance cf migration tc the protected region. Two methods are suggested that use t h i s approach — legal l i m i t a t i o n of access to the protected region, and taxation of immigrants. Re s t r i c t i o n of National access. A) Description of Policy. It was previously claimed that t h i s type of policy i s p a r t i c u l a r l y e f f e c t i v e i n reducing immigration, but that at other than national l e v e l s i t would probably be p o l i t i c a l l y unacceptable and not e a s i l y accomplished. Nevertheless, reduction of immigration to the country in which the protected region i s contained might be a useful and feasible policy to 89 adept, In the case of the Greater Vancouver Begicnal D i s t r i c t , approximately H0% of t o t a l population growth in recent years i s attributed to international immigration 1. B) Evaluation. 1) Effectiveness. The degree to which immigration to the protected region could be reduced by this policy would depend cn the proportion of migration to that region consisting of international immigrants, and also on how much the national government would be prepared to r e s t r i c t immigration. Since the policy i s i n any event only a f f e c t i n g a portion of the volume of immigration to the protected region, the effectiveness of the policy has a d e f i n i t e upper l i m i t . The reduction obtained i s readily adjustable, however. The number of immigrants allowed entry to the country can be easily controlled. The policy would also be sustainable, unless war or f i n a n c i a l or other sanctions were imposed or threatened by other countries (see the discussion of p o l i t i c a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y below). 2) Internal Effects. The i n t e r n a l e f f e c t s are those r e l a t i n g to r e s t r i c t i o n of access p o l i c i e s i n general, as discussed in Chapter 4, p r i n c i p a l l y the p o s s i b i l i t y of excluding desired immigrants. 90 3) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (Internal). Problems cf i n t e r n a l p o l i t i c a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y connected with t h i s policy would mainly be based on personal feelings concerning freedom of int e r n a t i o n a l migration. However, national control of t h i s migration has long been a policy of most countries, so that philosophical differences of opinion of t h i s nature would probably be a minor problem. 4) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (External). One problem with the implementation of t h i s type of policy i s that the national government, which would have to bring the policy into force, must f i r s t be persuaded that the policy i s i n the national i n t e r e s t . This may not be easy, as quite apart from the usual d i f f i c u l t y faced when one area of a country wishes to influence national policy, there may be others in the country who wish immigration to continue at current l e v e l s , or to be increased. Furthermore, i f a country that i s r i c h and has a large land area, such as Canada, decides u n i l a t e r a l l y to reduce permitted immigration, resentment may be harboured in other parts of the world i f t h i s policy i s seen as being s e l f i s h . However, as was mentioned before, control of immigration has t r a d i t i o n a l l y been recognized as a national prerogative (Brcssard, 1967, page 29) and serious problems of t h i s type would probably not accompany a policy of national immigration reduction. 91 Taxation of Immigrants. A) Description of Policy. The mode of operation of t h i s policy i s tc decrease the attractiveness of immigration to the protected region by using taxation to increase the monetary cost cf immigration. There are two objections connected with t h i s policy that would have to be dealt with. F i r s t , for reasons of p o l i t i c a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y , the taxation policy would have to be designed so that i t would not discriminate against a p a r t i c u l a r class of immigrants, especially poorer ones., Second, there would have to be a way to distinguish between immigrants and residents so that the tax could be s e l e c t i v e l y applied. In order that the tax should not discriminate against poorer immigrants, the amount of tax levied would have to depend upon the immigrant's a b i l i t y to pay. This might be measured by a consideration of the immigrant's previous income, or t c t a l means, but to obtain information of this kind, methods such as means tests would have to be used. Demands for this type of information do not usually meet with public approval. It would be much simpler to make the tax a form of income tax, which would depend upon the income of the immigrant after he had arrived in the destination area. Unfortunately, there appear to be enough loopholes in current income tax laws sc that richer people are able to s u b s t a n t i a l l y reduce t h e i r taxes from the l e v e l that others might f e e l to be f a i r as a result cf stated government policy. Nevertheless, the advantage of linking the 92 proposed new tax to an already recognized system might- outweigh the disadvantages of the system i t s e l f . In addition to a simple income surtax, i t would possibly be desirable to impose a minimum on tax payable by immigrants. This would discourage immigration by those who have very l i t t l e or no taxable income, who would otherwise be l i t t l e affected by an income taxation policy. The problem of distinguishing between immigrants and residents i s more d i f f i c u l t to solve, p a r t i c u l a r l y because i t would be i n the immigrant's inter e s t to avoid detection by the taxation authorities.an example of a method of making the d i s t i n c t i o n would be to issue a form annually to a l l residents of the protected region. This form would be returned with the resident's income tax return, i n a s i m i l a r manner tc the Tt s l i p s now issued annually by every employer in Canada. Any person whose address was i n the protected region, or who obtained part of his income at an address in that regio,n, and who did not enclose such a form, would then be l i a b l e for the immigration tax. Of course, this scheme implies that the actual address of each taxpaying i n d i v i d u a l would be known. This i s net an unreasonable assumption, as i t i s already made under the current income tax system, which reguires a knowledge of the province of residence of each taxpayer. Notice that the immigration tax need not be a single payment. The tax might be a more ef f e c t i v e deterrent i f i t were 9 3 to be imposed for the f i r s t several years cf residency in the protected region. After that time, an immigrant would achieve the same status as an o r i g i n a l resident, and would no longer be l i a b l e for immigrant taxation. B) Evaluation. 1) Effectiveness. This method appears as i f i t ought tc be highly e f f e c t i v e . Assuming the two above-mentioned problems can in f a c t be solved, every potential immigrant would fe e l a d e f i n i t e deterrent tc migration to the protected region, and, assuming the income tax rates were to be correcty adjusted, the deterrent should be f e l t by a l l at approximately egual strength. The s u s t a i n a b i l i t y of the policy also seems to be s a t i s f a c t o r y , and adjustment could be easily achieved by r a i s i n g or reducing the taxation rates applied. » 2) Internal E f f e c t s . The e f f e c t s f e l t by protected region residents would be very small. The problem of excluding desired immigrants does not e x i s t , as any person s t i l l has the r i g h t to immigrate, as long as he i s w i l l i n g tc pay the tax. V i s i t o r s would net be excluded, since they would not pay income tax in the protected region. The cost of operating the policy would not impose a serious burden on l o c a l residents, and the enly increase i n bureaucracy a resident would perceive would be the need to ensure that he had received his resident's form each year. 94 .A positive side e f f e c t cf implementing t h i s policy would be the generation of new revenue as a r e s u l t cf the tax levied. 3) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (Internal). There are two areas in which problems of i n t e r n a l p o l i t i c a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y could arise, although these problems might also arise externally as well, f i r s t , there i s the previously discussed problem of exclusion of desired immigrants, which w i l l not be pursued further here. Second, there i s the fact that this policy would apply to migration within the country containing the protected region as well as to migration from other countries. A policy such as this would be resisted i f strong feelings exist within the population of the protected region concerning the importance of making regional i n t e r e s t s subordinate to rights of free migration within the country. 4) P o l i t i c a l Acceptability (External). It i s necessary to consider the j u r i s d i c t i o n that could implement such a scheme, and the l e g a l i t y of t h i s type of measure. In Canada, according to the B.fl.A. act, section 95, control of immigration i s a power of both the provinces and the federal government, the l a t t e r having supreme j u r i s d i c t i o n i n any c o n f l i c t between the two j u r i s d i c t i o n s (Brossard, 1967; pages 43-47). It appears, therefore, that the provinces may have the power to control immigration to t h e i r t e r r i t o r y by a l l people, Canadian or otherwise, but these laws would usually be the domain of the federal government (Brossard, 1967, page 43). 95 There i s a question, however, as to whether t h i s policy would f a l l under the heading of "Immigration" at a l l , as t h i s heading i s usually taken to refer to migration frcm outside Canada. It might be considered that the federal government would have j u r i s d i c t i o n , under the "Peace, Order, and Good Government" clause of section 91 of the E.N.ft. act. a l t e r n a t i v e l y the provinces might be able to implement such a policy by virtue of the powers granted i n subsection cf section 92 of the Act, which allows the provinces to make laws in r e l a t i o n to " a l l Hatters of a merely l o c a l or private Nature in the Province" (Lane, 1970, page IV 16). It i s probable that the correct j u r i s d i c t i o n would have to be decided by the c o u r t s 2 . also, both federal and p r o v i n c i a l governments have the power of taxation of incomes. The p r o v i n c i a l power of taxation i s limited tc "the r a i s i n g of a Revenue for P r o v i n c i a l Purposes" (Lane, 1970, pages IV-13 tc IV-15). Nevertheless, this type cf tax might be considered a payment by the immigrant to defray the c a p i t a l cost of the services he w i l l consume (Population Reference Bureau, 1966, page 54), so t h i s proviso might not l i m i t the provinces i n t h i s regard. Unlike the government of the United States, which could be r e s t r i c t e d by the supremacy of the the U.S, constitution regarding the right to free movement, Canadian governments seem to be unfettered in the making of laws in this area. The federal government i s now administering p o l i c i e s designed to redirect settlement patterns within Canada, so i t i s apparently considered that t h i s type of redirection i s in the 96 interest of the Canadian people (White, 1974). Within the protected region, public acceptance might be obtained cn the basis of the fee-for-service argument mentioned abcve. Emigration Grants. The f i n a l policy to be suggested here uses the approach of increasing the gains perceived to accompany emigration by residents of the protected region. A) Description of Poli c y . This policy would seek to encourage emigration from the protected region by offering monetary grants to individ u a l s who moved away from that region. There are several problems that would have to be solved in the design of the mechanics of operation of thi s policy also. F i r s t , i t i s necessary to ensure that the re c i p i e n t of the emigration grants remained outside the protected region. This might be done by paying the grants in installments, payment to cease upon re-entry to the protected region. Second, i t i s necessary to ensure that the reci p i e n t of the grants i s in fact an emigrant. An example of a method that might be used would be to make the grant payments through a bank or other f i n a n c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n in the area of the migrant's declared new home, and to give that i n s t i t u t i o n instructions that payments were only to be made into the hands of the emigrant himself. In order to avoid grant b e n e f i c i a r i e s finding 97 i t p r o f i t a b l e to make occasional t r i p s to the declared destination area just to pick up accrued payments, a proviso could be set up under which payments could only be made within some short period of the date of issue of each payment. Of course, the effectiveness of t h i s l a t t e r suggestion would depend upon the distance of the destination area frcm the protected region, so some minimum migration distance for grant e l i g i b i l i t y might also have to be established. Last, i t would be necessary to ensure that people could not immigrate for the purpose of emigrating a short time later in order to receive the emigration grants. This problem might be p a r t i a l l y solved by paying emigration grants only to those leaving the protected region after some minimum stated period of residency, although t h i s might cause undesirable side effects upon the immigration patterns. another method would be to apply this policy simultaneously with a policy to make immigration less a t t r a c t i v e . Perhaps the most e f f e c t i v e method would be for the number of grant payments an emigrant would be e l i g i b l e for depend upon his length of residency i n the protected region. B) Evaluation. This policy was described in less d e t a i l and evaluated in Chapter 4, but i t s use might become considerably mere desirable and f e a s i b l e i f i t were to be implemented in combination with an immigrant taxation policy such as the cne described above. F i r s t of a l l , the taxes received through the l a t t e r policy cculd be used to help pay the emigrant grants, thereby reducing the 98 f i n a n c i a l burden on the l o c a l residents. Second, the problem of immigration to receive emigration grants might be eliminated, as the taxes paid by the immigrant during his protected region residency would tend to offset the grants received after emigration. This combination would seem to be a very fea s i b l e net immigration reduction policy. Summary. The l i s t of p o l i c i e s just described by no means exhausts the set of p o t e n t i a l l y useful methods to reduce net immigration. Nevertheless, the examples presented are a strong argument that workable p o l i c i e s to achieve this aim can be developed. I t may be that the methods mentioned in t h i s chapter wculd not be suitable as immigration control p o l i c i e s , but i t seems possible that variations or combinations of them could form the basis for a successful pol i c y . At the least, i t i s intended that they should suggest ways in which useful p o l i c i e s to achieve the stated end might be constructed. 99 References from Chapter 5. 1. F i n a l c a l c u l a t i o n s of t h i s f i g u r e have net j e t been performed by the G.V.R.D. planning department, but a c c o r d i n g to Ms D. B e l f o r d , a planner i n t h a t department, the percentage of p o p u l a t i o n growth i n the r e g i o n a t t r i b u t a b l e to i n t e r n a t i o n a l i m g r a t i o n i n the perio d 1966-1971 i s between 40% and H5%. 2. These p o i n t s were r a i s e d by Mr R. D i e b o l t , A s s i s t a n t P r o f e s s o r i n the F a c u l t y of law, when he was c c n s u l t e d cn the l e g a l i t y of immigrant t a x a t i o n measures. He f e l t t h a t such a measure would i n f a c t have to be t e s t e d i n the c o u r t s f o r i t s l e g a l p o s i t i o n to be e s t a b l i s h e d , because i t would be a novel approach to m i g r a t i o n c o n t r o l , sc that a precedent would have to be e s t a b l i s h e d . 100 S e l e c t e d B i b l i o g r a p h y f o r C h a p t e r 5 . B r o s s a r d , J . ( 1 9 6 7 ) ^ I m m i g r a t i o n , L e s D r o i t s e t P c u y o i r s du C a n a d a e t du Q u e b e c , L e s P r e s s e s de l ' U n i v e r s i t e de M o n t r e a l , M o n t r e a l . K M 1 7 6 / B 7 6 6 / 1 9 6 7 (1) L a n e , W. (ed) (1970) S e l e c t e d R e a d i n g s i n Law f o r L o c a l P u b l i c U.J S l J S i i ? t ra tg rs , U n i v e r s i t y c f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a . P o p u l a t i o n R e f e r e n c e B u r e a u ( 1 9 6 6 ) " C a l i f o r n i a : A f t e r 19 M i l l i o n , W h a t ? " , P o p u l a t i o n B u l l e t i n V o l u m e X X I I #2, J u n e 1 9 6 6 . H B 8 8 1 / A 1 / P 6 2 ~(M) W h i t e , K , (1974) " C a n a d a — L a n d o f t h e C r a m p e d ? " , V a n c o u v e r Sun ( 7 4 / 1 / 2 8 ) , p a g e 3 5 . AW1/R477 ( M i c ) 101 Chapter 6 CONCLUSION. The purpose of t h i s work i s to investigate methods of reducing net immigration to a given region. When the c a l l for such a reduction has been made in the past, i t has usually been voiced by regional or sub-regional governing bodies. Members of these bodies had generally perceived the existence cf various problems within t h e i r regions that they f e l t were connected with, or caused by, population growth. Accordingly, t h i s report adopted the viewpoint of a regional governing body faced with the problem of developing a policy to reduce net immigration to the region of i t s concern. Features of Successful P o l i c i e s . A review of the l i t e r a t u r e concerning migration was carried out; which supported the following: there i s a wide range cf factors that may influence the decision of an i n d i v i d u a l when migration i s considered, but migration takes place, in general, as a r e s u l t of the i n d i v i d u a l ' s perceiving that he w i l l obtain a personal gain from migrating. It i s apparent, therefore, that for a policy to be e f f e c t i v e i n reducing net immigration to a region, the policy must either reduce the gains a potential immigrant perceives that he can obtain through immigrating to the region, or increase the gains a potential emigrant perceives that he can obtain through emigrating from the region. The effectiveness of the policy w i l l depend upon the amount of perceived change in 102 these gains, and the percentage of potential migrants affected. However, the effectiveness of a policy in bringing about the reduction cf net immigration i s not the only c r i t e r i a governing i t s o v e r a l l success. Bearing in mind that t h i s type cf policy would usually be adopted to maintain or improve the l i v a b i l i t y of the protected region, a policy cannot be considered successful i f i t s operation brings about s i g n i f i c a n t degradation of regional l i v a b i l i t y . Moreover, i t i s also important that any policy introduced, whether related to migration control or net, enjey public agreement with both i t s aims and i t s methods. Although the p o l i t i c a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y of a policy w i l l largely depend upon the mood of the public at.the time of i t s introduction, making the general a c c e p t a b i l i t y of a proposed policy d i f f i c u l t tc assess, some guidelines have been suggested to aid in the evaluation and design of p o l i t i c a l l y acceptable p o l i c i e s . These guidelines are mainly concerned with reducing the burden a policy would impose, in terms of taxation or r e s t r i c t i o n s cn personal freedom, to the minimum l e v e l possible consistent with policy effectiveness. Previous Experience and Policy Design. An examination of previously implemented p o l i c i e s designed to reduce net immigration showed that there has been l i t t l e s i g n i f i c a n t success in achieving t h i s aim in the past. Open evaluation of previously used p o l i c i e s (with respect to effectiveness, deleterious e f f e c t s produced, and p o l i t i c a l acceptability) i t was found that most of these p o l i c i e s suffered 103 from serious problems in one or more cf the c r i t e r i a mentioned. The documented experience cf previously implemented p o l i c i e s was used as a guide in choosing directions to follow in the design of new p o l i c i e s . Some types cf method were rejected because of problems of effectiveness or harmful e f f e c t s that seem to be i m p l i c i t in the methods themselves. These types included: improvement of migrant origins, rejected because of limited effectiveness and high cost;] provision of alternative destinations, rejected because of d i f f i c u l t i e s of administration, high cost, and possible s o c i a l and environmental problems;' and reduction of the strenth of l o c a l p u l l factors, rejected because of the corresponding reduction of regional l i v a b i l i t y that generally accompanies the use of t h i s method. Nevertheless, other policy types showed promise in terms cf effectiveness, so the basic ideas behind these types were suggested as the basis for new policy design. These types included: a l t e r i n g the perception of potential immigrants concerning the protected region, while net a l t e r i n g the region^ i t s e l f ; r e s t r i c t i n g immigrant access; creating disincentives to counteract p u l l factors; and encouraging emigration Sample p o l i c i e s were designed and presented using these types of method. These p o l i c i e s were: p u b l i c i t y campaigns to a l t e r the perception of potential immigrants concerning the protected region; p u b l i c i t y campains to inform residents of the protected region about the costs to them a r i s i n g due to immigration; l i m i t a t i o n of access by international immigrants to the nation containing the protected region; d i r e c t selective 104 taxation of immigrants; and the payment of monetary grants to emigrants. In the author's opinion, the most .promising policy considered i s a combination of taxation of immigrants and grants to emigrants. Epilogue. As was mentioned i n the introductory chapter, t h i s work i s not a b r i e f for the adoption of p o l i c i e s to reduce net immigration. In fact, i t i s perhaps unfortunate that society has come to a point where such p o l i c i e s are considered. However, the p o s s i b i l i t y of influencing this important feature of human existence should not be overlooked by those concerned with community planning, i f i t i s thought that the results of t h i s influence would be b e n e f i c i a l . It i s hoped that the suggestions made in t h i s work concerning the design of po l i c i e s to accomplish reductions i n net immigration w i l l be considered as a powerful argument tc counter the claim that control of migration i s unfeasible and thus should not be attempted. 105 BIBLIOGRAPHY. Abt Associates 1, Inc. (1970) The Causes of Rural to Urban Migration among the Poor, Office of Economic Opportunity, Washington.~HB1965/A37/1970A (M) Adams, R. (1969) "U.S. Metropolitan Migration: Dimensions and P r e d i c t a b i l i t y " , Proceedings of the Association of American Geographers VolT 1 1969,~page~34ff. G3/A733 (M, G) Agency for International Development (1968) The New Urban Debate, proceedings of the P a c i f i c Conference on Urban Growth, Washington. Alonso, W. (1970) "What Are New Towns for?". Urban Studies, Volume 7 #1, February 1970, pages 37-55. HT~151/I59~7F) Alonso, W. (1971) The System of Intermetropolitan Population Flows, Working Paper 155, National Commission cn Population Growth and the American Future, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington. HB 1965/A465/1971 (M) Anderson, I. (1966) Internal Migration in Canada J 9 2 J - J 9 6 J , Queen's Printer, Ottawa. HB/1985/A5 1M7 E, Se) Beshers, J. (196 7) Population Processes in Social Systems, The Free Press, New York. Bogue, D. (1969) Pr i n c i p l e s cf Demography, John Wiley and Sens, New York. HB881/B564/1969 (M, Se, W) Brcssard, J . (1967) L 1Immigration, Les Droits et Pcuvoirs du Canada et du Quebec, Les Presses de l^Universite de Montreal, MontrealT KM176/B766/1967 (L) Erossard, J. (1967) £1IffIsration, Les Presses de l'Universite de Montreal, Montreal7~KM176/B766/1967 (L) Brown, L., Odland, J . , and Golledge, R. (1970) "Migration, Functional Distance, and the Urban Hierarchy", Economic Geography Vol. 46 #3 July 1970, page 47.2ff. Commission on Population Growth and the American Future, The (1972) Population and the American Future, New American Library, New York. HB3505/C645/1972 (M) Department of Regional Economic Expansion (1973) Annual Report 19T1-72, Information Canada, Ottawa. Eaton, J. (ed.) (1969) Migration and Social Welfare, National Association of S o c i a l Workers, New York. HB 1965/R38/1969 (SW) 106 Fin k l e r , E. (1972) Jongrowth as a Planning Alternative, Planning Advisory Service report number 283, American Society of Planning O f f i c i a l s , ; Chicago. Friesen, B, (1973) Migration to Vancouver, Unpublished term paper, School of Community and Regional Planning, University of B r i t i s h Columbia. G.V.R.D. (1972(1)) Report from the G.V.R.D. C i t i z e n s ' Policy Committees, unpublished. G.V.R.D. (1972 (2)) A Report on l i v a b i l i t y , G.V.R.D. Planning Depa rtment. G.V.R.D. (1973 (1)) Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t Population Forecast, G.V.R.D. Planning Department. G.V.R.D. (1973(2)) Management cf Growth in the Vancouver Region, G.V.R.D. Planning Department. G.V'.R.D. (1974) Sharing Residential Growth, Discussion paper of the G.V.R.D. policy seminar cf 74/2/13, G.V.R.D. Planning Department. George, M (1970) Internal Migration i n Canada, Demographic Analyses, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , Queen's P r l n t e r T Ottawa. HB1989/G495/1970 (A, G, Se, SS, SW) Guttheim (1973) Experience i n the Reduction and l i m i t a t i o n of Urban and Regional Growth P o l i c i e s , unpublished report commissioned by the Greater Vancouver Regional D i s t r i c t . Isaac, J. (1947) Economics of Migration* Kegan, Paul, Trench, Trubner 8 Co.7~London. JV6035/I7 (M) Jackson, J. (ed.) (1969) MiSXStion, Cambridge University Press. JV6035/M54/1969 (Se) Jansen, C. (1969) "Some Sociological Aspects of Migration", in Jackson (1969), page 60ff. Kuznets, S. (1957) "Internal Migration and Economic Growth", Milbank Memorial Fund, Proceedings of the Annual Conference, v o l . 34:3. W1/MI642-34:3 (W) Lamm, R. And Davison, S. (1972) "The Legal Control of Population Growth and Distribution in a Quality Environment; The Land Use Alternatives", Denver Law Journal, Volume 49 #1, pages 1-51. K1/D52/V49 (L) Lane, W. (ed) (1970) Selected Readings i n Law for Local Public Administrators, University of E r i t i s h Columbia. Lee, E. (1969) "A Theory of Migration", in Jackson (1969), page 282ff. 107 Lith wick, H. (1970) Urban Canada, Problems and Prospects, CM.B.C., Ottawa. Mangalam, J. (1968) Human Migration, a Guide to Rigraticn Lii®I§iPiS i S English, University of Kentucky Press,; Lexington. ZHB1951/M35/1968 (SS) Ministry of Manpower and Immigration (1973) Information Sheet, Canada Immigration. Standards for Selecting Immigrants, Ministry of Manpower and Immigration Information Service, Ottawa. M o r r i l l , R. (1965) Migration and the Spread and Growth of Urban §ettlement7~C. W. GleerupT Lund. HT371/M6 ~(M7~Se) Parkins, M. (1953) City Planning in Soviet Russia, University of Chicago Press.~Z5942/P3/1953~~(F) Pierson, G. (1973) The Moving American, A. Knopf, Hew York. E169.T/P555/1973 (M) Population Reference Bureau (1966) " C a l i f o r n i a : After 19 M i l l i o n , What?", Population B u l l e t i n Volume XXII #2, June 1966. HB881/A1/P62 Pryor, R. (1971) Internal Migration and Urbanisation, James Cook University ~Press, Townsville, AUS.~ZHB7951/P796/1971 (SS) Rasmussen, S. (1934) London the Unigue City, M.I.T. Press, Cambridge. EA677/R2737l967~ (Se7 Richmond, A. (1969) "Sociology of Migration in Industrial and Post-Industrial Societies", in Jackson (1969), page 238ff, Rohrlich, G. (1969) "Economic Cost-Benefit Approaches to Migration", in Eaton (1969), page 55ff. Self, P. (1957) C i t i e s i n Flood, Faber and Faber, London. NA185/S3 (FT" Senior, C. (1969) "Movers, Migrants, and the National Interest", in Eaton (1969), page 23ff. Shryock, H. (1964) Population Mobility within the United States , Community and Family Study Center, University of Chicago. HB1965/S5 (SW) Simmie, J. (1972) The Sociology of Internal Migration, Centre for Environmental Studies; London.~HB2046/S6/S544/1972 (M) Simon, H. (1957) Models of Man.: Social and Rational, Wiley 8 Son, New York. 108 Sjaastad, L. (1962) "The Costs and Returns of Human Migration ", Journal of P o l i t i c a l Economy v o l . 70 part 2 Oct. 1962 page~80ff.~HB1/J7/V70™MT Staubli, W. (1965) B r a s i l i a , Universe Books, New York, NA857/B7/S8/1965 (F) Stone, L. (1969) Migration in Canada, Regional Aspects, Dominion Bureau of S t a t i s t i c s , Queen's Printer, Ottawa. HB1989/S8/1969 (Se, SS, SW, ARE, Ge) Stouffer, S. (1940) "Intervening Opportunities: A Theory Relating Mobility and Distance", A l b i c a n S o c i o l o g i c a l Review Volume 5 December 1940, page 845ff.~HMl/A75 (M^SW,1 SS, Se, 1) Stouffer, S. (1960) "Intervening Opportunities and Competing Migrants", Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 2 #1 Spring 1960, page I f f . H1/J535/V1-2 (M) Thomlinson, R. (1965) Population Dynamics, Random House, New York. HB871/T38 (A) Times, The (1972) "Milton Keynes — City of the Future", March 24, 1972, supplementary pages I to i v . Turner, C. (ed.) (1973) Managed Growth, Urban Research Corporation, Chicago. Vancouver Sun (1974/2/14) "Subdivision halt forecast", page 12. Welch, R. (1970) JJigratign in B r i t a i n , Centre for Urban and Regional Studies, University of Birmingham, B. and R, Clark, Edinburgh. ZHB2045/W443/1970 (Se, SS) Wertheimer, R. (1970) " The Monetary, Rewards of Migration within the U.S., The Urban I n s t i t u t e , Washington. HB~1965/W46/1970 (M) White, K. (1974) "Canada — Land of the Cramped?", Vancouver Sun (74/1/28), page 35. AW1/R477 (Mic) 

Cite

Citation Scheme:

        

Citations by CSL (citeproc-js)

Usage Statistics

Share

Embed

Customize your widget with the following options, then copy and paste the code below into the HTML of your page to embed this item in your website.
                        
                            <div id="ubcOpenCollectionsWidgetDisplay">
                            <script id="ubcOpenCollectionsWidget"
                            src="{[{embed.src}]}"
                            data-item="{[{embed.item}]}"
                            data-collection="{[{embed.collection}]}"
                            data-metadata="{[{embed.showMetadata}]}"
                            data-width="{[{embed.width}]}"
                            async >
                            </script>
                            </div>
                        
                    
IIIF logo Our image viewer uses the IIIF 2.0 standard. To load this item in other compatible viewers, use this url:
http://iiif.library.ubc.ca/presentation/dsp.831.1-0099889/manifest

Comment

Related Items