UBC Theses and Dissertations

UBC Theses Logo

UBC Theses and Dissertations

Policy options for the developing world's domestic energy supply : patterns and preferences in the Nigerian… Onyebuchi, Edward Ifeanyi 1986

Your browser doesn't seem to have a PDF viewer, please download the PDF to view this item.

Item Metadata

Download

Media
831-UBC_1986_A1 O59.pdf [ 18.56MB ]
Metadata
JSON: 831-1.0097340.json
JSON-LD: 831-1.0097340-ld.json
RDF/XML (Pretty): 831-1.0097340-rdf.xml
RDF/JSON: 831-1.0097340-rdf.json
Turtle: 831-1.0097340-turtle.txt
N-Triples: 831-1.0097340-rdf-ntriples.txt
Original Record: 831-1.0097340-source.json
Full Text
831-1.0097340-fulltext.txt
Citation
831-1.0097340.ris

Full Text

POLICY OPTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPING WORLD'S DOMESTIC ENERGY SUPPLY - PATTERNS AND PREFERENCES I N THE NIGERIAN DOMESTIC SECTOR by EDWARD I F E A N Y I ONYEBUCHI B.M.A., The U n i v e r s i t y  o f L e t h b r i d g e , 1978  M.N.R.M., The U n i v e r s i t y  o f M a n i t o b a , 1980  A THESIS SUBMITTED I N PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY School  o f Community a n d R e g i o n a l  We a c c e p t  Planning  t h i s t h e s i s as conforming  to the enquired  standard  THE UNIVERSITY OF B R I T I S H COLUMBIA OCTOBER, 1986 ©Edward I f e a n y i O n y e b u c h i , 1986  In p r e s e n t i n g  t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f the  requirements f o r an advanced degree a t the U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree t h a t the L i b r a r y s h a l l make it  f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r reference  and study.  I further  agree t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e copying o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y purposes may be granted by t h e head o f my department o r by h i s o r her r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s .  It i s  understood t h a t copying o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l gain  s h a l l n o t be allowed without my w r i t t e n  permission.  Department o f  COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL  The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h 1956 Main Mall Vancouver, Canada V6T 1Y3 Date  /8-n  October  6. 1986  Columbia  PLANNTNO  ABSTRACT The m a i n p u r p o s e o f t h i s s t u d y i s t o i d e n t i f y  factors  g o v e r n i n g N i g e r i a n h o u s e h o l d s ' f u e l c h o i c e s and p r e f e r e n c e s , to  e x p l o r e t h e d e g r e e t o w h i c h commonly p r o p o s e d new  technologies satisfy research problem  t h e s e n e e d s and p r e f e r e n c e s .  i s t h a t new  energy  The p r i m a r y  energy t e c h n o l o g i e s proposed f o r  d o m e s t i c use i n N i g e r i a and o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s  have  p r o v e d t o be u n a c c e p t a b l e t o h o u s e h o l d s , d e s p i t e t h e o f t e n v i r t u e s of a l t e r n a t i v e s i m p r o v e d wood The  cited  s u c h a s b i o g a s , s o l a r c o o k e r s , and  stoves.  need  for this  study i s f i r s t  r e v i e w of l i t e r a t u r e c o n c e r n i n g energy in  and  g e n e r a l , and N i g e r i a  in particular.  demonstrated through a i n the d e v e l o p i n g world The  literature  reveals  t h a t N i g e r i a ' s energy problems m i r r o r those of o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g countries,  including potential  nonrenewable accompanied  r e l i a n c e on  nontraditional,  energy sources which are petroleum based, by r a p i d d e p l e t i o n o f t r a d i t i o n a l  s o u r c e s of energy  s u c h a s f i r e w o o d , and t h e p r o b l e m o f i d e n t i f y i n g and new  energy s u p p l y t e c h n o l o g i e s which w i l l  assessing  g a i n wide s p r e a d  public acceptance. The  r e s e a r c h methods a r e c a s e s t u d i e s i n b o t h r u r a l  urban s e t t i n g s w i t h i n N i g e r i a . collection  The  i n s t r u m e n t s used f o r data  are i n t e r v i e w q u e s t i o n n a i r e s , accompanied  observations.  Samples  of  by  direct  o f e i g h t y h o u s e h o l d s h a v e been s u r v e y e d  f r o m e a c h o f an u r b a n c e n t r e , a r u r a l setting  and  t o w n , and a  village  i n b o t h n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n N i g e r i a , w i t h a  480 h o u s e h o l d s b e i n g s u r v e y e d . i i  total  The d a t a o b t a i n e d i s p r e s e n t e d i n t h r e e s t e p s .  First,  f a c t o r s g o v e r n i n g c u r r e n t c h o i c e s o f f u e l t y p e s u s e d on a f r e q u e n t b a s i s by h o u s e h o l d s  f o r domestic purposes a r e a n a l y z e d ,  and a c o m p a r a t i v e a s s e s s m e n t  i s made o f t h e d e g r e e  these f a c t o r s are incorporated  i n t o t h e d e s i g n s o f commonly  p r o p o s e d new e n e r g y s u p p l y t e c h n o l o g i e s .  E v i d e n c e shows t h a t  although a household's c h o i c e of a p a r t i c u l a r i n f l u e n c e d by e c o n o m i c  A wide  The s t u d y shows t h a t  o f s u p p l y , c o n v e n i e n c e , v e r s a t i l i t y and  c l e a n l i n e s s a r e v a r i a b l e s which a r e weighed  when s e l e c t i n g a  f u e l t y p e f r o m among t h e w i d e a r r a y o f a v a i l a b l e energy.  i s naturally  range of i n t r i n s i c  q u a l i t i e s determine a f u e l ' s d e s i r a b i l i t y . reliability  fuel  f a c t o r s , the p r i c e per u n i t of energy i s  not t h e s o l e b a s i s of c h o i c e .  safety,  t o which  The f a i l u r e  s o u r c e s of  t o adequately incorporate these  qualities  i n t o commonly p r o p o s e d new e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s s u c h a s s o l a r c o o k e r s and b i o g a s , has r e s u l t e d energy  i n promotion of a l t e r n a t e  s u p p l y s y s t e m s w h i c h do n o t m a t c h t h e n e e d s a n d  preferences of intended users.  A l t h o u g h t h e commonly  new e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s a r e b a s e d on r e n e w a b l e w h i c h have t h e p o t e n t i a l s a f e , and d e c e n t r a l i z e d versatile  fuels,  i n N i g e r i a base  sources of energy  to provide sustainable, environmentally s u p p l y systems  i n v o l v i n g cheap and  t h e s e a r e n o t t h e q u a l i t i e s on w h i c h their  proposed  households  f u e l use c h o i c e s and p r e f e r e n c e s .  The s e c o n d s t e p i n v o l v e s  identification  o f f u e l t y p e s most  p r e f e r r e d by h o u s e h o l d s f o r u s e i n d o m e s t i c c h o r e s , a n d t h e reasons f o r such c h o i c e s . nontraditional  Almost a l l households surveyed  f u e l s such as e l e c t r i c i t y  the a v a i l a b i l i t y  of cheap t r a d i t i o n a l iii  and k e r o s e n e ,  sources of f u e l .  prefer  despite Of  particular  interest  i s the f i n d i n g that although v i l l a g e  h o u s e h o l d s r e l y on u n s o p h i s t i c a t e d t r a d i t i o n a l  energy  t e c h n o l o g i e s , t h e i r a t t i t u d e s toward n o n t r a d i t i o n a l as k e r o s e n e and e l e c t r i c i t y households  a r e not d i f f e r e n t  i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l  towns.  c o n s i d e r a t i o n s such as the a v a i l a b i l i t y govern t h e i r  current  fuels  such  from those of Practical  of a g i v e n f u e l  f u e l u s e p r a c t i c e s more t h a n do  type  tradition,  c u l t u r e and p r e f e r e n c e . The  third  household s i z e , consumption  s t e p i s a n a l y s i s of the r e l a t i o n s h i p s of residential  l o c a t i o n s , a n d income l e v e l s t o  of t r a d i t i o n a l and n o n t r a d i t i o n a l  fuel  types.  A  m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n model i s employed, and t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s of the f i n d i n g s d i s c u s s e d .  Urban growth, accompanied  by  rising  income l e v e l s l e a d s t o i n c r e a s i n g d e p e n d e n c e on n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s by h o u s e h o l d s f o r d o m e s t i c p u r p o s e s .  One c a u s e  e x p a n s i o n o f d o m e s t i c e n e r g y demands s u c h a s  i s the  refrigeration,  e n t e r t a i n m e n t a n d a i r c o n d i t i o n i n g , w h i c h c a n n o t be s a t i s f i e d traditional urbanization energy  fuels  i n t h e i r p r e s e n t form.  i s accompanied  i s an i m p o r t a n t a s p e c t o f r e g i o n a l  policies  i n N i g e r i a , but w h i l e r e g i o n a l p l a n n e r s  seek t o t r a n s f o r m v i l l a g e s  into thriving  s u p p l y s y s t e m s b a s e d on f i n i t e  urban c e n t r e s w i t h  hydrocarbon resources,  e n e r g y p l a n n e r s p r o p o s e new e n e r g y a l t e r n a t i v e s technologies  f o r use i n r u r a l  t h a t new e n e r g y  require  systems.  Urbanization development  i s that  by t h e p r o v i s i o n o f n o n t r a d i t i o n a l  s u p p l y systems and t h e s a l e of a p p l i a n c e s w h i c h  the use of such  energy  A second cause  by  settings.  supply p o l i c i e s iv  involving  This finding  simple  suggests  s h o u l d be made an i n t e g r a l  part  of n a t i o n a l development  policies.  These r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s suggest t h a t a a p p r o a c h t o the p r o b l e m of f i n d i n g a c c e p t a b l e alternatives  need-driven energy  supply  i s needed t o r e p l a c e the c u r r e n t l y employed  technology-driven  approach.  Research Supervisor:  v  Dr. W i l l i a m Rees  TABLE OF CONTENTS  ABSTRACT  i i  TABLE OF CONTENTS  v i  L I S T OF TABLES  xi  L I S T OF FIGURES  xvii  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS  xviii  Chapter 1  INTRODUCTION 1.1  . .  1  B r i e f O v e r v i e w o f t h e R e s e a r c h Need a n d Problem Statement  1  1.2  Basic  4  1.3  Objectives  1.4  B a s i c Assumptions  1.5  S i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e Study  6  1.6  Organization  7  Hypotheses o f t h e Study o f t h e Study  5  o f t h e Study PART  2  5  ONE  ENERGY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 2.1  9  The N a t u r e a n d D i m e n s i o n s o f t h e P r o b l e m 2.1.1  Dependence on P e t r o l e u m E n e r g y Resources and H i g h O i l P r i c e s 2.1.1.1 2.1.1.2  2.1.2  10  . .  10  E n e r g y Use P a t t e r n s i n the Developing World . .  10  High O i l P r i c e s  15  Sources o f N o n t r a d i t i o n a l Energy and S u p p l y C o n s t r a i n t s i n Developing Countries  30  2.1.2.1  Petroleum O i l  31  2.1.2.2  Heavy O i l and T a r Sands  2.1.2.3  O i l Shale  36  2.1.2.4  Natural  38  2.1.2.5  Coal  2.1.2.6  Hydroelectric Potential  vi  Gas  .  34  42 Resource 47  2.1.2.7 2.1.3  3  N u c l e a r Energy  49  T r a d i t i o n a l E n e r g y And S u p p l y Constraints In Developing Countries  52  POLICY OPTIONS AND PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE  63  3.1  R e m e d i e s And P r e s c r i p t i o n s  63  3.2  P r o b l e m s And O b s t a c l e s A s s o c i a t e d P u b l i c A c c e p t a n c e Of A l t e r n a t e Supply Options 3.2.1  The R o l e Of P u b l i c  With New E n e r g y 75  Participation . . .  77  PART TWO 4  ENERGY I N N I G E R I A 4.1 Energy Resources, P r o d u c t i o n ,  85 And  Consumption 4.1.1  4.1.2  4.1.3  86  Nontraditional  Energy  86  4.1.1.1  Petroleum Resources  86  4.1.1.2  Natural  98  4.1.1.3  Coal  108  4.1.1.4  Electricity  112  Gas  T r a d i t i o n a l Energy Resources  120  4.1.2.1  120  Overall  Forest  Energy  Energy Consumption  Patterns  In N i g e r i a . 4.2  Summary And P o l i c y I m p l i c a t i o n s  128  4.3 5  A l t e r n a t e New E n e r g y S u p p l y T e c h n o l o g i e s : The C a s e F o r N i g e r i a THEORETICAL CONTEXT, RESEARCH DESIGN AND  123  METHODOLOGY  133 136  5.1  Theoretical  Context  5.2  Research Design  vii  136 140  5.2.1  I d e n t i f i c a t i o n Of The R e s e a r c h Population  5.2.2 5.3  6  141  Data C o l l e c t i o n  Research Methodology 5.3.1  Field  5.3.2  Procedures  144  . .  Interview Experiences.  146 . . .  153  F o r Data A n a l y s i s . . .  159  ENERGY USE PATTERNS AND PREFERENCES I N THE NIGERIAN DOMESTIC 6.1  SECTOR  F r e q u e n c y Of Use Of V a r i o u s F u e l T y p e s . . 6.1.1  6.1.2  Current Household Fuel Choices For Cooking Purposes 6.1.1.1 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e Of F r e q u e n t l y Used F u e l s F o r Household Cooking Purposes C u r r e n t F u e l C h o i c e s F o r Water Heating Purposes 6.1.2.1  6.1.3  Current Household Fuel Choices For Food P r e s e r v a t i o n P u r p o s e s . . . 6.1.3.1  6.1.4  F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e Of F u e l T y p e s F r e q u e n t l y Used F o r H o u s e h o l d Water Heating  6.2  171 171  178 181  184 189  ' F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e Of F u e l s F r e q u e n t l y Used F o r Food P r e s e r v a t i o n . .  195  F u e l s F r e q u e n t l y U s e d F o r The P u r p o s e Of Home L i g h t i n g . . . .  197  6.1.4.1  6.1.5  163  R e a s o n s F o r The C h o i c e Of P a r t i c u l a r F u e l Types C u r r e n t l y Used F o r Home L i g h t i n g . .  Summary And D i s c u s s i o n  200 202  F u e l T y p e s Most P r e f e r r e d By H o u s e h o l d s For Domestic Purposes  211  6.2.1  218  Discussion vi i i  6.3 6.4  U n d e s i r a b l e C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s Of F u e l C u r r e n t l y U s e d By H o u s e h o l d s  Types 226  E s t i m a t e d Monthly Household Energy Consumption For Domestic Purposes . . 6.4.1 6.4.2  Consumption Sources  Of T r a d i t i o n a l E n e r g y  Consumption  Of  .  231 Nontraditional  Fuels  6.5  231  237  6.4.3  T o t a l Energy Consumption  244  6.4.4  Policy Implications  252  Conclusion  258  PART THREE 7  POLICY AND PLANNING IMPLICATIONS: TOWARDS A NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY AND PROGRAM FOR NIGERIA  260  7.1  260  Summary 7.1.1  O v e r a l l P o l i c y And  Planning  Implications 7.2  268  Energy P o l i c y O p t i o n s For N i g e r i a  272  7.2.1  Administrative  273  7.2.2  A l t e r n a t e New  Framework Energy Resources  Supply Systems 7.2.2.1  7.2.3  276  S o l a r Energy  276  7.2.2.2 Wind Power 7.2.2.3 Biomass E x i s t i n g Energy Resource Supply  277 278  Systems  7.2.4  280  7.2.3.1  Fuelwood P r o d u c t i o n .  7.2.3.2  Oil  7.2.3.3  Natural  7.2.3.4  Coal  . .  280 284  Gas  285  And H y d r o Power . .  Energy Supply D i v e r s i f i c a t i o n . ix  . .  286 287  7.3 7.4  7.2.5  I n t e g r a t e d Development P l a n s  . . .  289  7.2.6  Foreign A i d  291  7.2.7  Energy Conservation  292  7.2.8  Conclusions  297  A C o m p a r i s o n W i t h The R e s u l t s Of A S i m i l a r Study  297  C o n c l u s i o n s And R e c o m m e n d a t i o n s  301  L I S T OF REFERENCES  305  APPENDIX  321  D E F I N I T I O N OF TERMS  329  CONVERSION FACTORS FOR COMMON ENERGY AND POWER UNITS . .  332  x  L I S T OF TABLES 2.1  2.2  2.3 2.4  2.5 2.6 2.7  S h a r e s Of N o n t r a d i t i o n a l And P e t r o l e u m - B a s e d E n e r g y I n T o t a l E n e r g y C o n s u m p t i o n I n M a j o r S e c t o r s Of I n d i v i d u a l D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s F o r 1982. . . .  12  S h a r e s o f E l e c t r i c And C o a l E n e r g y I n T o t a l E n e r g y C o n s u m p t i o n I n M a j o r S e c t o r s Of I n d i v i d u a l D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s F o r 1982  14  O i l P r i c e C h a n g e , And OPEC's O i l As P e r c e n t Of World O i l Consumption  20  OPEC C o u n t r i e s ' A v e r a g e D a i l y P r o d u c t i o n From 1970 - 1 9 7 9 , And The L e v e l Of P r o d u c t i o n Q u o t a s I n 1982 .  21  NOIDC E n e r g y B a l a n c e , Of O i l E q u i v a l e n t  26  1960 - 1980, I n M i l l i o n  C u r r e n t Account D e f i c i t s , Net O i l I m p o r t i n g D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s 1973 - 1978 $ B i l l i o n  . . .  .28  E s t i m a t e s Of U l t i m a t e W o r l d R e s o u r c e s Of Conventional  Oil  32  2.8  Classification  2.9  C o a l C l a s s i f i c a t i o n By W o r l d E n e r g y C o n f e r e n c e , 1978 S c h e d u l e d E x p a n s i o n Of N u c l e a r C a p a c i t y  2.10  B/D  Operation  Of C o a l By Rank  43 45 (GW(w) I n  At t h e End-Year)  50  2.11  The F u e l w o o d S i t u a t i o n  Countries  55  2.12  Fuelwood Shortages In Developing C o u n t r i e s , C u r r e n t And F u t u r e D i m e n s i o n s I n M i l l i o n s Of People A f f e c t e d T e c h n o l o g i e s F o r C o n v e r s i o n Of B i o m a s s I n t o U s a b l e Fuels  57 70  Technologies Biomass  72  3.1 3.2 3.3  I n The D e v e l o p i n g  F o r The U s e Of F u e l s D e r i v e d  From  M a j o r T e c h n o l o g i e s F o r U s e Of R e n e w a b l e E n e r g y R e s o u r c e s F o r The P r o d u c t i o n Of H e a t , M e c h a n i c a l , And E l e c t r i c a l Energy  4.1  N i g e r i a n Proven Crude O i l R e s e r v e s ,  4.2  N i g e r i a C r u d e O i l P r o d u c t i o n And E x p o r t s . 1961 - 1982 xi  1961 - 1 9 8 3 .  73 .  88 89  4.3  N i g e r i a n Crude O i l E x p o r t s  4.4  D o m e s t i c C o n s u m p t i o n Of P e t r o l e u m E n e r g y In N i g e r i a  4.5 4.6  By D e s t i n a t i o n , F o r 1981 Products  93  N i g e r i a n S e c t o r a l C o n s u m p t i o n Of P e t r o l e u m E n e r g y , In M i l l i o n G i g a j o u l e s Nigerian's  91  97  N a t u r a l Gas P r o v e n R e s e r v e s , I n B i l l i o n  C u b i c M e t r e s And B i l l i o n G i g a j o u l e s , 4.7  Nigerian's  N a t u r a l Gas P r o d u c t i o n ,  4.8  C o m m e r c i a l N a t u r a l Gas C o n s u m p t i o n  1971  - 1983  In M i l l i o n M  99 101  3  In N i g e r i a  1976 - 1982  104  4.9  S e c t o r a l C o n s u m p t i o n Of C o m m e r c i a l Gas  4.10  N a t u r a l Gas C y l i n d e r s I n N i g e r i a , S i z e s And Deposits C o a l P r o d u c t i o n And C o n s u m p t i o n I n N i g e r i a , I n Thousand G i g a j o u l e s E l e c t r i c i t y P r o d u c t i o n I n N i g e r i a , 1970 - 1982, I n Million Gigajoules. .  113  F u e l Energy Used F o r Thermal E l e c t r i c i t y In N i g e r i a  116  4.11 4.12 4.13 4.14  Nigerian E l e c t r i c i t y  In N i g e r i a .  118  Fuelwood Consumption  4.16  C o n s u m p t i o n Of F u e l w o o d I n N i g e r i a , By S e c t o r .  4.17  S h a r e s Of T o t a l E n e r g y C o n s u m p t i o n By S e c t o r I n N i g e r i a (Percent) S h a r e s Of T o t a l E n e r g y C o n s u m p t i o n By F u e l S o u r c e In N i g e r i a ( P e r c e n t )  4.20 5.1 6.1  110  Consumption, i n M i l l i o n  4.15  4.19  107  Production  Gigajoules.  4.18  105  I n N i g e r i a , 1970  T o t a l E n e r g y Consumed, By S e c t o r , T o t a l , In N i g e r i a  -1981.  . . . . .  124 125 126 127  As P e r c e n t a g e Of  S h a r e s Of U s e f u l E n e r g y C o n s u m p t i o n , By I n N i g e r i a As P e r c e n t a g e Of T o t a l  129 Sector 130  Power Demand And E n e r g y C o n s u m p t i o n Of D o m e s t i c Appliances In N i g e r i a  150  Demographic P r o f i l e s Within Nigeria  165  By Sample xi i  Locations  6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6  6.7  6.8  6.9  6.10  6.11  6.12  6.13  6.14  D e m o g r a p h i c P r o f i l e s by Sample Within N i g e r i a (contd)  Locations 166  H o u s e h o l d S i z e As A F u n c t i o n Of H o u s e h o l d Income i n Urban S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a  167  H o u s e h o l d S i z e As A F u n c t i o n Of H o u s e h o l d Income i n Rural Settings Within Nigeria . . . .  168  H o u s e h o l d S i z e As A F u n c t i o n Of H o u s e h o l d Income i n V i l l a g e Settings Within Nigeria  169  F r e q u e n c y Of Use Of C e r t a i n F u e l P u r p o s e s By H o u s e h o l d s W i t h i n S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a  172  Types For C o o k i n g R u r a l And U r b a n  The Use Of T r a d i t i o n a l And N o n t r a d i t i o n a l F u e l T y p e s On A F r e q u e n t B a s i s F o r C o o k i n g P u r p o s e s By M o n t h l y H o u s e h o l d Income G r o u p s W i t h i n R u r a l And U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a  175  The Use Of T r a d i t i o n a l And N o n t r a d i t i o n a l F u e l T y p e s F o r C o o k i n g P u r p o s e s On A F r e q u e n t B a s i s By H o u s e h o l d S i z e G r o u p s W i t h i n R u r a l And U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a  176  F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l T y p e s I n C u r r e n t Use On A F r e q u e n t B a s i s F o r C o o k i n g P u r p o s e s By H o u s e h o l d s W i t h i n R u r a l And U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a  180  F r e q u e n c y Of Use Of C e r t a i n F u e l T y p e s F o r Water H e a t i n g P u r p o s e s By H o u s e h o l d s W i t h i n R u r a l And U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a  182  The Use Of T r a d i t i o n a l And N o n t r a d i t i o n a l F u e l T y p e s On A F r e q u e n t B a s i s F o r W a t e r H e a t i n g P u r p o s e s by M o n t h l y H o u s e h o l d Income G r o u p s W i t h i n R u r a l And U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a . . .  185  The Use Of T r a d i t i o n a l And N o n t r a d i t i o n a l F u e l T y p e s On A F r e q u e n t B a s i s F o r Water H e a t i n g P u r p o s e s By H o u s e h o l d S i z e G r o u p s W i t h i n R u r a l And U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a  186  F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e Of F u e l T y p e s I n C u r r e n t Use On A F r e q u e n t B a s i s F o r Water H e a t i n g P u r p o s e s By H o u s e h o l d s W i t h i n R u r a l And U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a F r e q u e n c y Of Use Of C e r t a i n F u e l T y p e s F o r F o o d P r e s e r v a t i o n P u r p o s e s by H o u s e h o l d s W i t h i n R u r a l And U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a xi i i  188  191  6.15  The U s e Of T r a d i t i o n a l And N o n t r a d i t i o n a l F u e l T y p e s On A F r e q u e n t B a s i s F o r F o o d P r e s e r v a t i o n P u r p o s e s By H o u s e h o l d S i z e G r o u p s W i t h i n R u r a l a n d U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 193  6.16  The U s e Of T r a d i t i o n a l And N o n t r a d i t i o n a l F u e l T y p e s On A F r e q u e n t B a s i s F o r F o o d P r e s e r v a t i o n P u r p o s e s By H o u s e h o l d Income G r o u p s W i t h i n R u r a l And U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 194  6.17  F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l T y p e s I n C u r r e n t U s e On A F r e q u e n t B a s i s F o r F o o d P r e s e r v a t i o n P u r p o s e s By H o u s e h o l d s W i t h i n R u r a l And U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a  196  F r e q u e n c y Of Use Of C e r t a i n F u e l T y p e s F o r Home L i g h t i n g P u r p o s e s By H o u s e h o l d s W i t h i n R u r a l And U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a  198  F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l T y p e s I n C u r r e n t U s e On A F r e q u e n t B a s i s F o r Home L i g h t i n g P u r p o s e s By H o u s e h o l d s W i t h i n R u r a l And U r b a n S e t t i n g s I n N i g e r i a  201  6.18  6.19  6.20  Conventional Energy Resource Products Supply S i t u a t i o n By Sample L o c a t i o n s W i t h i n N i g e r i a . . 203  6.21  F u e l T y p e s I n Use On F r e q u e n t B a s i s F o r C o o k i n g , W a t e r H e a t i n g , Home L i g h t i n g And F o o d P r e s e r v a t i o n P u r p o s e s By H o u s e h o l d s W i t h i n R u r a l And U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 204  6.22  F u e l Types Most P r e f e r r e d F o r Use I n M e e t i n g M a j o r D o m e s t i c E n e r g y T a s k s By H o u s e h o l d s W i t h i n R u r a l And U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 212  6.23  F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l T y p e s M o s t P r e f e r r e d F o r C o o k i n g P u r p o s e s By H o u s e h o l d s W i t h i n R u r a l And U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a . . . 214  6.24  F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l T y p e s M o s t P r e f e r r e d F o r W a t e r H e a t i n g P u r p o s e s By H o u s e h o l d s W i t h i n R u r a l A n d U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of Nigeria  216  F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l T y p e s M o s t P r e f e r r e d F o r Home L i g h t i n g P u r p o s e s By Househ o l d s W i t h i n R u r a l And U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of Nigeria  217  F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l T y p e s M o s t P r e f e r r e d F o r F o o d P r e s e r v a t i o n P u r p o s e s By H o u s e h o l d s W i t h i n R u r a l And U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of Nigeria  219  6.25  6.26  xi v  6.27  F u e l T y p e s W h i c h The H o u s e h o l d s W o u l d L i k e To Have P r o v i d e d F o r T h e i r U s e , I n O r d e r Of P r e f e r e n c e s - C a s e S t u d i e s Of R u r a l And U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of Nigeria 220  6.28  The Mean E s t i m a t e d T o t a l M o n t h l y T r a d i t i o n a l E n e r g y C o n s u m p t i o n By H o u s e h o l d s W i t h i n R u r a l And U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 232  6.29  T o t a l Monthly T r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption ( I n M e g a j o u l e s ) As F u n c t i o n s Of M o n t h l y H o u s e h o l d Income And H o u s e h o l d S i z e C a t e g o r i e s F o r Urban S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a  233  T o t a l Monthly T r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption ( I n M e g a j o u l e s ) As F u n c t i o n s Of M o n t h l y H o u s e h o l d Income And H o u s e h o l d S i z e C a t e g o r i e s F o r R u r a l Town S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a  234  T o t a l Monthly T r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption ( I n M e g a j o u l e s ) As F u n c t i o n s Of M o n t h l y H o u s e h o l d Income And H o u s e h o l d S i z e C a t e g o r i e s F o r V i l l a g e Settings Within Nigeria  235  The Mean E s t i m a t e d T o t a l M o n t h l y N o n t r a d i t i o n a l E n e r g y C o n s u m p t i o n By H o u s e h o l d s W i t h i n R u r a l And U r b a n S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a  238  T o t a l Monthly N o n t r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption ( i n M e g a j o u l e s ) As F u n c t i o n s Of M o n t h l y H o u s e h o l d Income And H o u s e h o l d S i z e C a t e g o r i e s F o r Rural Settings Within Nigeria  239  T o t a l Monthly N o n t r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption ( i n M e g a j o u l e s ) As F u n c t i o n s Of M o n t h l y H o u s e h o l d Income And H o u s e h o l d S i z e C a t e g o r i e s F o r Urban S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a  240  T o t a l Monthly N o n t r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption ( i n M e g a j o u l e s ) As F u n c t i o n s Of M o n t h l y H o u s e h o l d Income And H o u s e h o l d S i z e C a t e g o r i e s F o r V i l l a g e Settings Within Nigeria  241  6.30  6.31  6.32  6.33  6.34  6.35  6.36  T o t a l Monthly Energy Consumption ( i n M e g a j o u l e s ) F o r D o m e s t i c P u r p o s e s As F u n c t i o n s Of H o u s e h o l d Income And H o u s e h o l d S i z e F o r U r b a n S e t t i n g s Within Nigeria 245  6.37  T o t a l Monthly Energy Consumption ( i n Megajoules) F o r D o m e s t i c P u r p o s e s A s F u n c t i o n s Of H o u s e h o l d Income And H o u s e h o l d S i z e F o r R u r a l S e t t i n g s Within Nigeria 246 xv  6.38  T o t a l Monthly Energy Consumption ( i n M e g a j o u l e s ) F o r D o m e s t i c P u r p o s e s A s F u n c t i o n s Of H o u s e h o l d Income And H o u s e h o l d S i z e F o r V i l l a g e S e t t i n g s Within Nigeria  247  T o t a l M o n t h l y F i n a n c i a l E x p e n d i t u r e On E n e r g y F o r D o m e s t i c P u r p o s e s ( i n N a i r a ) As F u n c t i o n s Of H o u s e h o l d Income And H o u s e h o l d S i z e F o r U r b a n Settings Within Nigeria  248  T o t a l M o n t h l y F i n a n c i a l E x p e n d i t u r e On E n e r g y F o r D o m e s t i c P u r p o s e s ( i n N a i r a ) As F u n c t i o n s Of H o u s e h o l d Income And H o u s e h o l d S i z e F o r R u r a l Settings Within Nigeria  249  T o t a l M o n t h l y F i n a n c i a l E x p e n d i t u r e On E n e r g y F o r D o m e s t i c P u r p o s e s ( i n N a i r a ) As F u n c t i o n s Of H o u s e h o l d Income And H o u s e h o l d S i z e F o r V i l l a g e Settings Within Nigeria  250  7.1  Biomass Energy C o n v e r s i o n T e c h n o l o g i e s  279  7.2  E s t i m a t e d C o s t s Of B i o m a s s And C o n v e n t i o n a l E n e r g y P r o d u c t s I n The U.S.A. I n $ P e r M i l l i o n B.T.U. Unless Otherwise Indicated  281  6.39  6.40  6.41  xvi  L I S T OF FIGURES 3.1  M a j o r R e n e w a b l e E n e r g y R e s o u r c e s And A p p l i c a t i o n s For D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s  5.1  Map Of N i g e r i a S h o w i n g  7.1  A Hypothetical  7.2  I n t e r a c t i o n B e t w e e n E n e r g y And N o n - E n e r g y Of The N i g e r i a n Economy  69  Case Study L o c a t i o n s .  . . .  I n t e g r a t e d Energy Supply System  xvi i  . .  142 288  Sectors 290  For MARY ERLEAN BROADWAY, MY PARENTS AND DAVID  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS  I e s p e c i a l l y owe a d e b t o f g r a t i t u d e t o my w i f e for  her unequalled  sacrifice  support,  encouragement, a s s i s t a n c e and  throughout the s i x years  this  study  A s s i s t a n c e was a l s o r e c e i v e d f r o m my  was u n d e r w a y .  supervisory  c o m m i t t e e , composed o f D r . J o h n Chapman, D r . H e n r y Dr.  Danita,  Hightower,  P e t e r N e m e t z , a n d my s u p e r v i s o r D r . W i l l i a m R e e s .  commitment, t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e , and a d v i s e appreciated.  My f i e l d  research  Their  i sgreatly  i n N i g e r i a was s u p e r v i s e d by  P r o f e s s o r N e l s o n Ngoka o f t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f I f e , a n d I am grateful  for h i s assistance.  S p e c i a l t h a n k s must go t o t h e F e d e r a l G o v e r n m e n t o f N i g e r i a which funded t h i s provided  study.  F i n a n c i a l a s s i s t a n c e was a l s o  t h r o u g h t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a by t h e D o n n e r  Canadian Foundation S c h o l a r s h i p and M e l l o n a r e much  Scholarship,  which  appreciated.  Appreciation  i s extended t o Dr. Walter  Henson, D i r e c t o r o f  the N a t u r a l Resources I n s t i t u t e a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y of Manitoba, for  h i s r e l e n t l e s s support  and encouragement from t h e i n c e p t i o n  o f my Ph.D. p r o g r a m t o i t s c o m p l e t i o n ; generous g i f t  of computer time.  also provided  much a p p r e c i a t e d  of d a t a . McVicar,  I wish  t o express  as w e l l as f o r the  J i m Ferguson and John Skynner a s s i s t a n c e i n computer a n a l y s i s  my g r a t i t u d e t o P r o f e s s o r Ken  Department of P o l i t i c a l  S t u d i e s , Dr. John Gray,  D e p a r t m e n t o f E c o n o m i c s , a n d D r . V. S m i l , D e p a r t m e n t o f Geography, a l l a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y of Manitoba, f o r t h e i r h e l p f u l advice  and t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e . xvi i i  I am g r a t e f u l t o t h e s t a f f o f  R e s o u r c e s f o r t h e F u t u r e and t h e W o r l d Bank's Energy P o l i c y i n Washington, as w e l l as t o those a t t h e F o r e s t r y Energy P o l i c y Unit  Unit  D i v i s i o n and  o f FAO i n Rome f o r t h e i r a s s i s t a n c e i n  l o c a t i n g u s e f u l secondary research T h a n k s a l s o go t o P r o f e s s o r  documents and r e p o r t s . Brahm Wiesman, D r . Mathew  Ohanamah, Mr. S t e p h e n O b i a g w u , Mr. Raymond Ogbu, a n d Mr. & Mrs.  A. O k o l i .  My c o l l e a g u e s  h a v e a l s o been c o n t i n u i n g Finally,  A l a i n C u n n i n g h a m a n d Ed H u e b e r t  sources of encouragement.  I w i s h t o e x p r e s s my g r a t i t u d e  t o my p a r e n t s ,  & M r s . D a v i d O n y e b u c h i , whose l o v e , v i s i o n , c o n f i d e n c e a n d p r a y e r s h e l p e d t o make t h i s  study  xix  possible.  Mr.  CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION The to  which  energy  primary the  Nigeria.  degree  commonly use  goal  on  thesis  fuel to  application The existing  to  The  in general  new  findings  and  are  the  in  new  needs  of  their  existing  traditional  and  energy  are  i n the  designs  supply  a  problems  for both  for  possible.  through  the  review  of  and developing  particular.  B r i e f O v e r v i e w Of The R e s e a r c h Need And P r o b l e m S t a t e m e n t There world.  are  First,  two  related  growing  domestic  petroleum  resources  groups  developing countries.  of  products  puts  conditions majority  of  of  has  energy  the  i n the  dependence  varying  on  implications The  considerable strain net  crises  on  cost the  of  world,  1  and  different  imported  balance  o i l importing c o u n t r i e s which  developing  developing  nonrenewable for  of form  i s accompanied  petroleum  payment the by  and of  domestic  generalized  where  non-  needs,  technologies for  study  and  identification  reflected  prescriptions  Nigeria  the  extent  in  domestic  countries,  energy  the  settings  base  i s determined  concerning policy  major  of  study  urban  through  energy  developing  for this  energy  and  of  proposed  satisfy  for certain  factors  alternate  literature  alternative  rural  i n meeting  these  other  need  i n both  Nigerian households  types  proposed  commonly  purposes  preferences  which  is analysis  with  i s accomplished  which  in Nigeria.  world  this  associated  households  choices, their  traditional the  of  This  factors  fuel  qualities  of  t e c h n o l o g i e s for domestic  preferences  the  focus  2  worsening  debt  problems.  In net o i l e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g  c o u n t r i e s f o r e i g n exchange e a r n i n g s a r e t i e d t o o i l e x p o r t s , growing  domestic  through  a more r a p i d d e p l e t i o n o f t h e i r  resources. petroleum  demands f o r p e t r o l e u m  T h i s problem products  t h e l a c k of  of growing  p r o d u c t s can finite  domestic  be met  and  only  petroleum  dependence  on  i n most d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s compounded  internal  s u p p l i e s o f o t h e r known n o n t r a d i t i o n a l  by  fuel  t y p e s s u c h a s n a t u r a l g a s , c o a l , h y d r o e l e c t r i c power r e s o u r c e s , and  n u c l e a r power.  c o u n t r i e s who  F o r e x a m p l e , t h e m a j o r i t y of  a r e most d e p e n d e n t on o i l i m p o r t s t e n d t o be  w e l l - e n d o w e d w i t h n a t u r a l gas substantially  resources.  Coal  Z a m b i a and N o r t h K o r e a .  i s used  However, c o a l  India,  resources  d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e not y e t e c o n o m i c a l l y or recoverable.  resources  h a n d l i n g may  is likely  t o c o n t i n u e t o do  to  insignificant  so, s i n c e even f o r t h o s e  have the r e q u i r e d uranium d e p o s i t s , the about n u c l e a r p r o l i f e r a t i o n  are  t o overcome, as a r e s a f e t y p r o b l e m s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h  n u c l e a r energy  to  c o n t i n u e t o slow development of  i n the d e v e l o p i n g world are r e s t r i c t e d  i n d u s t r i a l i z e d world's concerns  The  technically  c o u n t r i e s , w h i l e n u c l e a r power p l a y s an  c o u n t r i e s which  difficult  in several  i n many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . H y d r o e l e c t r i c  resource potentials  r o l e and  Zimbabwe,  In a d d i t i o n , h i g h i n f r a s t r u c t u r e c o s t s f o r m i n i n g ,  t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , and  j u s t a few  least  i n j u s t a few d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s where m i n e s  h a v e been w e l l - d e v e l o p e d , n o t a b l y i n C h i n a ,  coal  developing  supply technologies.  second  energy  crisis  t h e s u p p l y of t r a d i t i o n a l  particularly  fuelwood  and  i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d  relates  or noncommercial energy  sources,  i t s derivative, charcoal.  Although  3  t h e s e f u e l s a r e o f t e n bought "noncommercial" not  and s o l d , t h e y a r e r e f e r r e d t o a s  forms of energy because  such t r a n s a c t i o n s are  r e c o r d e d i n c o m m e r c i a l e n e r g y s t a t i s t i c s and do n o t  i n t e r n a t i o n a l exchange.  Yet these noncommercial  energy sources  s u p p l y more t h a n n i n e t y p e r c e n t o f t h e e n e r g y needs population  of the  countries.  energy consumption  U n f o r t u n a t e l y , however,  due  p r e s s u r e s from i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n ,  of t h e s e  to prolonged drought  firewood s c a r c i t i e s  i n many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s and h a v e r e s u l t e d  is called  rural  i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , and a c c o u n t f o r a b o u t  t w e n t y - f i v e p e r c e n t of t o t a l  critical  involve  "the other energy c r i s i s "  ( 1 9 7 8 ) , and  by E c k h o l m  " t h e p o o r man's e n e r g y c r i s i s "  and  are  i n what  (1975) and T o l b a  (United  Nations.  1978) . C o n s i d e r a t i o n of the v a r i o u s d i m e n s i o n s of energy i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s has g i v e n p r e s c r i p t i o n s and new  impetus t o p o l i c y  energy s t r a t e g i e s  for developing countries  w h i c h a r e d e s i g n e d t o r e d u c e o r a v o i d d e p e n d e n c e on hydrocarbon f u e l  nonrenewable  r e s o u r c e s and s l o w down t h e p r o c e s s o f  d e p l e t i o n o f d o m e s t i c f i r e w o o d r e s o u r c e s ( W o r l d Bank, 1981; H i l l i n g , 1975).  1976; E a r l ,  1975; F r e n c h , 1978a; and  In the household s e c t o r  1979a,  Parikh,  s o l a r c o o k e r s , b i o g a s , and  i m p r o v e d wood s t o v e s a r e t h e most commonly p r o p o s e d new  problems  alternate  e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r d o m e s t i c use i n N i g e r i a and  d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d as a whole. s u c h a l t e r n a t e new  Development  s i n c e t h e m i d - s e v e n t i e s , and current  literature  and a p p l i c a t i o n o f  e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s h a s been t h e  f o c u s of r e s e a r c h c o n c e r n i n g energy  the  main  in developing countries  i s discussed extensively in  ( W o r l d Bank, 1981a; Eden e t a l . ;  1981;  4 1981;  Roa,  Rahmer, Brown,  Dunkerley  1979; ed.,  Ruedisli 1978;  are  technically  use  of  the  potential  cheap,  decentralized intermediate attention in  the  have other  users  have  solar  feasible,  supply  be  a l . ,  1978;  and  biogas  cookers and  both  involve  using  Despite  such  what  are  virtues  which safe  known  and  have  as  the  in literature  concerning  world,  these  alternate  energy  technologies  households  within  Nigeria  world.  is this  unacceptable the  new  the  energy  research  currently  fuel  to  developing  use  types  It  question,  "Are  alternate  those  by  new  technologies  proposed  for domestic for  systems  resources  the  given  alternate  with  energy  et  been  prompts  first  commonly  solar  those  types  by  use on  on  which  households  i s that  alternate  biogas,  and  new  improved  i n N i g e r i a and  the  which  choices  existing  households  Second, commonly  hypothesis  proposed  cookers,  domestic  use  Both  Auer  1979;  are  by  and  problem  the  the  new  energy  of  intended  qualities  energy  existing  choices  or  based?"  Basic Hypotheses The  not  1978;  a l . ,  sustainable, environmentally  provide  technologies.  technologies  the  1977).  economically  energy  of  preferences  a l . eds.,  et  to  c o u n t r i e s of  associated  1.2  and  Cecelski  versatile  to  which  et  WAES,  developing  acceptance  a l . , 1981a;  renewable,  they  proven  et  are  related  proposed  i n N i g e r i a do  to  often-cited  energy  technologies  wood-burning  developing and  virtues  world  stoves) as  a  preferences  of  (e.g. for  whole,  for  are  fuel  based. the  alternate not  the  above, new  adequately  i s the  energy  hypotheses  technologies  reflect  the  that for  desirable  the  domestic intrinsic  5  qualities  of  Third,  fuels is  chosen  the  rising  income,  energy  consumption  Nigerian  hypothesis  results  as  by  in  in  general,  petroleum  such  1.3  O b j e c t i v e s Of The S t u d y objectives  of  1.  To  energy  with  commonly  and  products  The  world,  this  in  on  the  domestic  existing  level  by  of  nontraditional  particular.  problems Nigeria,  alternate  and  the  reinforced  are:  supply  proposed  in of  study  emphasis  prescriptions  urbanization,  increases  fuels  examine  that  households.  in  the  and  energy  to  developing analyse  the  policy  d i f f i c u l t i e s  arising  from  such  policies. 2.  To  examine  existing  preferences rural 3.  To  and  alternate To for of  policy  examine  energy  the  in  the  use  case  the  patterns  studies  developing  choice to  development  of  the  in  and both  the  policies  countries,  where  for  various these  of for  research  concerning  supply  of  which  technologies  implications  energy  the  degree  supply  prescriptions  alternate  through  governing  addressed  new  discuss  other  1.4  and  are  energy  settings.  factors  types,  factors  Nigeria,  urban  identify  fuel  4.  in  household  Nigeria. findings  identification Nigeria  and  applicable.  B a s i c A s s u m p t i o n s o f The S t u d y 1.  Exploration country  must  of be  energy  policy  preceded  by  options an  for  a  understanding  developing of  the  6  socio-economic  f a c t o r s which i n f l u e n c e e x i s t i n g  u s e p a t t e r n s and u s e r p r e f e r e n c e s  energy  for available  fuel  types. 2.  I f new  energy t e c h n o l o g i e s i n v o l v i n g biomass,  a n d s o l a r a r e t o be a c c e p t e d designs  by t h e p e o p l e ,  o f s u c h a l t e r n a t i v e s must  biogas,  the  demonstrate  q u a l i t i e s o f f u e l use w h i c h t h e l o c a l p e o p l e c h o o s e i n t h e i r c u r r e n t use and p r e f e r e n c e s  of a v a i l a b l e  fuel  types. 3.  T e c h n o l o g i c a l i n n o v a t i o n must be d r i v e n by s e n s e o f n e e d s , b o t h m o n e t a r y and  Although  N i g e r i a may  not a t f i r s t  users'  nonmonetary.  glance appear  typical  of  d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s b e c a u s e o f h e r endowment o f d i v e r s e e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s , a n a l y s i s of the l i t e r a t u r e  reveals that Nigerian  s u p p l y p r o b l e m s m i r r o r the energy problems of o t h e r countries,  including potential  nonrenewable sources  energy sources,  nontraditional  r a p i d d e p l e t i o n of  traditional  o f e n e r g y , and t h e p r o b l e m o f i d e n t i f y i n g and  a l t e r n a t e energy supply country's  1_.5  r e l i a n c e on  sources  which are acceptable  S i g n i f i c a n c e Of The  Study  This study provides  insight  generally.  world.  assessing to the  citizens.  i n t o major  issues  e n e r g y s u p p l y p r o b l e m s o f N i g e r i a and t h e d e v e l o p i n g  search  developing  The  world  s t u d y a d d s t o t h e body o f k n o w l e d g e u s e d i n t h e  f o r a p p r o p r i a t e energy p o l i c y Focusing  nontraditional  concerning  on u s e r p r e f e r e n c e s  fuel  options f o r the for existing  types, the study h i g h l i g h t s  developing  traditional  i s s u e s t o be  and  7  emphasized i n f u t u r e r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s Energy i s of v i t a l of  importance  payments of a l l n a t i o n s .  in this  field.  t o t h e economies and balance  The m a j o r g o a l o f many d e v e l o p i n g  c o u n t r i e s i s t o a c h i e v e a c c e l e r a t e d economic and s o c i a l development, i n v o l v i n g  the p r o v i s i o n of adequate q u a n t i t i e s of  food f o r t h e i r c i t i z e n r y , p o p u l a t i o n c o n t r o l ,  r e d u c t i o n of  r e g i o n a l d i s p a r i t i e s and i m m i g r a t i o n problems,  establishment of  e x p o r t and import  substitution  q u a l i t y of l i f e .  The r e a l i z a t i o n o f t h i s g o a l demands s u p p l i e s  of,  i n d u s t r i e s , a n d an  and a c c e s s t o , t h e r i g h t energy The  ascertain prior  major emphasis of t h i s  sources.  study  i s on t h e n e e d t o  information concerning public  t o f o r m u l a t i o n of energy  policy  values or preferences  options.  However,  need a p p l i e s t o o t h e r p l a n n i n g p r a c t i c e s a s w e l l , when t h e y  1.6  involve the developing  improved  particularly  world.  Organization of The Study The  relevant world.  study begins,  i n Chapter  2, w i t h an e x a m i n a t i o n o f  l i t e r a t u r e d e a l i n g w i t h energy  supply  Some o f t h e p r o b l e m s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h  prescriptions Chapter  f o r the T h i r d World  i n the developing  policy  are identified  4 f o c u s e s on t h e e n e r g y  i n Chapter  supplies. Chapter  5.  3.  supply s i t u a t i o n i n  N i g e r i a , and p r e s e n t s a n a l y s i s of p o l i c i e s g o v e r n i n g  those  The r e s e a r c h d e s i g n a n d m e t h o d o l o g y a r e p r e s e n t e d i n R e s u l t s o f an a n a l y s i s o f i n t e r v i e w q u e s t i o n n a i r e  data p e r t a i n i n g t o household in Nigeria are presented of  this  energy  i n Chapter  use p a t t e r n s and p r e f e r e n c e s 6, together with discussion  t h e r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s and t h e i r p o l i c y  implications.  The  8 final  chapter  i s a summary o f t h e s t u d y , t h e r e s e a r c h e r ' s  c o n c l u s i o n s and  recommendations.  PART ONE CHAPTER 2 ENERGY I N DEVELOPING COUNTRIES E n e r g y p r o b l e m s o f t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d h a v e been identified  by numerous s o u r c e s a s c o n s i s t i n g o f t h r e e m a j o r a n d  i n t e r r e l a t e d a s p e c t s (FAO, 1 9 8 3 ; D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , Cecelski  et a l . ,  Knowland,  1979; W o r l d Bank, 1979a,  1 9 8 1 ; Eden e t a l . ,  1981).  1980a;  First  1981a;  S m i l and  i s the growing  d e p e n d e n c e on f i n i t e  and nonrenewable  n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy  i s petroleum based.  Increases i n the p r i c e of imported o i l  that  p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s h a v e p u t a g r e a t s t r a i n on t h e b a l a n c e o f payments, of  their  w i t h many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s s p e n d i n g more t h a n f o r e i g n exchange  f o r hydro-carbon  half  fuel.  S e c o n d a r e t h e p r o b l e m s c a u s e d by s h o r t a g e s o f f i r e w o o d , the  f u e l on w h i c h t h r e e - q u a r t e r s o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f  d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s depend These  f o r c o o k i n g and water  heating.  p r o b l e m s o f g r o w i n g d e p e n d e n c e on n o n r e n e w a b l e  petroleum  e n e r g y , a n d s h o r t a g e s o f f i r e w o o d on w h i c h t h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s c u r r e n t l y depend, a r e compounded by c o n s t r a i n t s t o i n d i g e n o u s s u p p l i e s o f o t h e r n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy r e s o u r c e s i n c l u d i n g c o a l , n a t u r a l gas, hydro, o i l s h a l e , o i l sands, and n u c l e a r The  energy.  t h i r d major a s p e c t of energy problems of t h e  d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i s t h a t o f i d e n t i f y i n g new e n e r g y s u p p l y o p t i o n s b a s e d on r e n e w a b l e r e s o u r c e s s u c h a s s o l a r , w i n d a n d biomass  that w i l l  gain widespread public acceptance.  This discussion w i l l  be c o n f i n e d t o a r e v i e w o f l i t e r a t u r e 9  10  and a n a l y s i s concerned with the three dominant  elements of the  debate over energy q u e s t i o n s of the d e v e l o p i n g world. i n c l u d e the nature and dimensions of the energy remedies and p r e s c r i p t i o n s f o r a l l e v i a t i n g  These  problem,  the problem,  and  problems or o b s t a c l e s a s s o c i a t e d with commonly proposed  new  energy  2.1  options.  The  Nature  And Dimensions  As p r e v i o u s l y mentioned, energy problems f o r overwhelming  Of  The  Problem  the nature and dimensions of  f o r the d e v e l o p i n g world r e l a t e to the p o t e n t i a l dependence on nonrenewable  r e s o u r c e s , accompanied Second are problems  petroleum energy  by the i m p l i c a t i o n s of high o i l p r i c e s .  r e l a t e d to shortages of firewood s u p p l i e s .  T h i r d i s the problem of i d e n t i f y i n g and a s s e s s i n g a l t e r n a t e energy supply sources with p r o s p e c t s f o r g a i n i n g acceptance f o r t h e i r  2.1.1  new  public  use.  D e p e n d e n c e On P e t r o l e u m And H i g h O i l P r i c e s  Energy  Resources  O i l and i t s by-products represent the major  sources of  n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy consumed i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , accounting f o r as much as e i g h t y percent of t o t a l energy consumed a n n u a l l y (Dunkerley et a l . , potential  f o r overwhelming  nontraditional  1981a).  The  dependence on petroleum energy  resources by the d e v e l o p i n g world becomes apparent through a n a l y s i s of i t s energy use p a t t e r n s .  2_. 1_. 1_. 1_ Energy Use P a t t e r n s In The Developing World Data f o r a study of energy use p a t t e r n s i n the d e v e l o p i n g  11  w o r l d i s p r o v i d e d by t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s (1985) e n t i t l e d E n e r g y B a l a n c e and E l e c t r i c i t y analysis  in a  Profiles  i s b a s e d on d a t a c o n c e r n i n g f o r t y - e i g h t  publication  1902.  selected  d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s r e p r e s e n t i n g a wide range of per incomes, development for  i s e x c l u d e d o n l y because T a b l e 2.1  capita  l e v e l s , a n d r e s o u r c e endowments.  t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and h o u s e h o l d s a r e examined;  sector  The  the  agricultural  of t h e l a c k of d a t a .  p r e s e n t s the p r o p o r t i o n of t o t a l  consumption w i t h i n major  Energy  energy  s e c t o r s of each d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y  w h i c h i s r e p r e s e n t e d by n o n t r a d i t i o n a l e n e r g y , and how s h a r e i s c l a i m e d by p e t r o l e u m - b a s e d e n e r g y , b a s e d on figures.  great a 1982  I n a l l b u t a few c a s e s , n o n t r a d i t i o n a l e n e r g y  which  i s m o s t l y petroleum-based a c c o u n t s f o r over f i f t y p e r c e n t of total  e n e r g y consumed i n t h e i n d u s t r i a l  sector.  Industrial  t e c h n o l o g i e s w h i c h were d e v e l o p e d i n t h e 1950s and use n o n t r a d i t i o n a l e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s r a t h e r t h a n  1960s t e n d t o  traditional  energy s o u r c e s i n t h e i r p r e s e n t form, because of the f o r m e r ' s greater  flexibility.  Growth  in this  sector w i l l  result in  i n c r e a s e d d e p e n d e n c e on n o n t r a d i t i o n a l e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s s u c h a s oil  and e l e c t r i c i t y  w h i c h i s m o s t l y p e t r o l e u m - b a s e d , and  those  c o u n t r i e s w h i c h do n o t h a v e a d e q u a t e d o m e s t i c p e t r o l e u m e n e r g y resources w i l l  be f o r c e d t o c o m p e t e w i t h t h e  w o r l d f o r s u p p l i e s of p e t r o l e u m .  Net o i l e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g  c o u n t r i e s , on t h e o t h e r h a n d , w i l l e i t h e r m a i n t a i n i n g or i n c r e a s i n g the  the  be f a c e d w i t h t h e d i l e m m a  their  i n t e r e s t o f o b t a i n i n g more c a p i t a l  development,  industrialized  level  of  of o i l e x p o r t s i n  for industrial  or d e c r e a s i n g t h e volume of t h e i r  o i lexports in  i n t e r e s t of c o n s e r v i n g s u p p l i e s f o r s e r v i n g expanding  local  12  T A B L E 2.1 SHARES OF NONTRADITIONAL AND PETROLEUM-BASED ENERGY I N TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN MAJOR SECTORS OF INDIVIDUAL DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR 1982  COUNTRY  NONTRADITIONAL EN^ AS 'A OF TOTAL INDUSTRY TRANSPOR- HOUSETAT I ON HOLD  Argent i na Bangladesh Barbados Boli w i a Braz i1 Chile Columbi a Costa Rica Cyprus Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Fiji Gabon Honduras Hong Kong Indi a Indonesia Israel Ivory Coast Jama i ca Jordan Kenya Korea Rep. Kuwa i t Ma 1 aw i Morocco Nepal Ni caragua Niger N i ger i a Pak i stan Panama Papua New Gu i nea Peru Ph i 1 i pp ines Qatar Saudi Arabia S i ngapore Solomon Is. Sri Lanka Tha i1 and Trinidad and Tobago Tun i s i a Uraguay Venezuela Zamb i a Z imbabwe  PETROLEUM-BASED ENL AS X OF TOTAL INDUSTRY TRANSPGR- HOUSEHOLD TAT I ON  90 . 4 86.5 59.8 63.8 62.6 100.0 86.2 34.0 100.0 . 83.0 94.1 57.9 80 .7 98.3 43.5 100.0 89.4 90.7 100.0 68.2 93.9 100 .0 58.8 100.0 100.0 8.0 100.0 86.2 29.7 100.0 99.3 88.6 55.6  100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100 .0 100.0 100 .0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  72.8 49.6 100 .0 49.6 23.7 20 .2 18.1 25.5 92.0 17.2 100 .0 100.0 30.5 100 .0 9.5 90.1 17.2 14.8 99.2 5.8 90 .4 100 .0 0.8 87.0 100 .0 1 .1 40.0 1.1 7.1 0.7 4.8 26.7 100.0  70 .0 50.7 19.8 55.9 31 .0 52.8 37.4 1 .3 90.2 72.6 75.7 44.3 31 .0 93.5 34.8 77.2 12.2 84.7 78.0 53.0 85.1 91 .5 37.2 56.3 76.7 0.1 85.5 30.4 20.6 57.6 95.3 56.5 48.8  99.5 100 .0 100.0 100.0 99.5 98.7 100.0 99.8 99.8 100.0 99.2 100.0 100 .0 100 .0 100 .0 99.7 67.2 99.7 100 .0 90 .8 100.0 100 .0 98.9 99.3 100.0 100.0 100 .0 91 .9 100 .0 100 .0 99.4 100 .0 100.0  58.9 4.7 .69.8 42.8 14.0 9.8 0.2 8.3 67.8 10.7 80 .0 2.8 23.4 56.3 7.1 51 .2 12.9 13.8 62.9 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 17.3 6.6 0.7 19.7 0.9 3.4 0.5 2.9 23.8 57.4  49.5 87.1 65.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 43.2 59.6  100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  2.3 41 .5 20.1 98.0 100 .0 99.4 3.6 15.3 6.4  23.6 62.3 44.5 94.0 91 .9 93.7 97.3 32.2 37.7  100.0 100 .0 100.0 100 .0 100 .0 100 .0 100 .0 100 .0 100 .0  1 .4 34.8 17.1 24.0 37.S 92.5 2.6 13.9 3.3  95.6 100.0 72.5 97.3 93.5 80.6  100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  92.1 36.7 55.7 93.6 6.4 7.0  85.9 80.1 54.2 81 .3 20 .5 5.1  10C.0 99.4 99.7 100 .0 100 .0 100.0  10.0 36.7 32.8 68.2 0.0 0.4  Source: United Nations. 1985. Eneroy Balances And E'1ec tr i c i ty Prof i I es 1982 New York: United Nat i ons.  13  demands. The  household  s e c t o r s i n the m a j o r i t y of the  d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s s t u d i e d , r e l y p r i m a r i l y on s o u r c e s of energy.  forty-eight  traditional  In the poorer d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s such  Honduras,  K e n y a , M a l a w i , N e p a l , N i c a r a g u a , N i g e r , Zambia  Papua New  Guinea, t r a d i t i o n a l  n i n e t y p e r c e n t of t o t a l sector.  Not  f u e l s account  energy consumption  face a c t u a l or p o t e n t i a l  f o r a s much a s by t h e  fuelwood supply  also  sectors in nontraditional  s o u r c e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y petroleum which accounts f o r over  unlikely  energy consumption.  This situation i s  t o c h a n g e so l o n g a s a u t o m o b i l e s , l o c o m o t i v e s a n d  a i r c r a f t s c o n t i n u e t o be p o w e r e d by p e t r o l e u m As  i s shown i n T a b l e 2.2  electricity  energy.  and c o a l  contribute  t o t h e i n d u s t r i a l , h o u s e h o l d , and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n  of d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d energy consumptions p l a y e d by p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s . and  they  problems.  i n the developed w o r l d , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n  n i n e t y p e r c e n t of t o t a l  little  household  be shown l a t e r ,  d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s d e p e n d a l m o s t e x c l u s i v e l y on energy  and  o n l y do t h e s e c o u n t r i e s l a c k p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s  f o r use by h o u s e h o l d s , b u t a s w i l l  As  as  technical difficulties  T h i s may  to the  be b e c a u s e  role  of the  a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the e x p o r t of  f u e l s t o a l l but c o n t i g e o u s a r e a s . p o i n t out  relative  sectors  S m i l and K n o w l a n d  costs  these  (1981:9)  that,  [ C r u d e o i l ] c a n be c o n v e n i e n t l y s t o r e d f o r l o n g p e r i o d s of time u n l i k e c o a l , n a t u r a l gas, or e l e c t r i c i t y , and i t i s e a s i l y a n d i n e x p e n s i v e l y t r a n s p o r t e d i n l a r g e o r s m a l l q u a n t i t i e s ; and t h r o u g h r e f i n i n g , o f c o u r s e , i t c a n be b r o k e n i n t o a v a r i e t y of s p e c i f i c e n d - p r o d u c t s h a v i n g a v e r y wide range of f i n a l uses. P r e c i s e l y these r e l a t i v e a d v a n t a g e s o v e r most o t h e r e n e r g y s o u r c e s h a v e made c r u d e o i l t h e u n i v e r s a l f u e l o f c h o i c e f o r most modern e c o n o m i c needs.  14  T A B L E 2.2 SHARES  OF E L E C T R I C AND COAL  IN MAJOR SECTORS "  Of  ELECTRICITY  COUNTRY  INDUSTRY  ENERGY  INDIVIDUAL AS X  IN T O T A L  ENERGY  CONSUMPTION  DEVELOPING COUNTRIES  OF TOTAL  TRANSPOR-  HOUSE-  TAT I ON  HOLD  FOR  COAL AS V. OF INDUSTRY  1982 TOTAL  TRANSPORTAT I ON  HOUSEHOLD  Argentina  16.6  0.2  14.0  3.1  Bangladesh  0.0  0.0  17.5  0.0  0.3  18.3  Barbados  0.0  0.0  41.2  0.0  30.2  0.0  0.0  0.0  7.7  0.0  6.8  0.0  B r a z i1  0.0  IS.5  0.4  Chile  0.0  0.0  30.1  0.7  9.7 10.0  0.2 13.1 17.1  0.6  0.4  Boli v i a  Colufflbi a  9.0  0.0  17.8  39.7  0.0  5.4  32.7  0.2  11.3  0.0  0.0  0.0  9.8 10.4  0.2  36.0  0.0  Ecuador  0.0  0.0  0.0  6.5  0.0  0.0  Egypt  0.0  11.7  0.0  0.0  6.8  0.1  0.0  El Salvador Fiji  13.7  0.0  3.3  0.0  0.0  27.5  0.0  7.1  22.2  0.0 0.0  4.8 8.6  0.0  0.0  0.0  43.7 2.4  0.0  0.0 0.0  21.7  0.3  39.0  1.9  0.0  Indi a  10.6  1.2  66.6  31.6  2.6  Indonesi a Israel  4.5 21 . 9  0.0 0.0  1.6 0.9 37.2  1.5 0.1  0.3 0.0  0.0 0.6  Ivory Coast Jama i c a  15.1  1 .4  0.0  0.0  0.0  8.7  9.2 0.0  100.0  0.0  Jordan  0.0  18.5  0.0  0.1 0.0  0.0  0.0  8.5  0.0  3.1  1.1  100.0  0.0 0.7  93.4  24.5  0.01 0.7  4.6  0.0  0.3 0.0  0.5 20.3  6.8  Costa  Rica  Cyprus  Gabon Honduras Hong  Kong  Kenya Korea  Rep.  0.6 100.0  Kuwa i t  19.2  Maiawi  2.9 11.7  0.0  Nepal  0.4  0.0  Nicaragua Ni ger Ni g e r i a  9.0  0.0  0.2 3.7  18.3 3.1  0.0 0.0  0.2 1 .8  10.8 6.9  0.0 0.0  25.9 19.7 13.6 6.0  Morocco  Pak i s t a n Panama P a p u a New 6u i n e a Peru Phi 1 i p p i n e s Qatar Saudi  Arabia  Singapore S o l onion I s l a n d s S r i Lanka Thai land Tr i n idad  0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  0.0  1.1  0.0 0.0  0.0 0.0  49.3  8.3  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0 1 .4  0.0 0.6  0.0 0.0  2.9 42.6  20.8 0.0  0.0 0.0  0.0 0.0  0.0  0.9  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0 0.0  6.7 3.9  5.1 7.4  0.0 0.0  0.0  76.0 62.2  0.0  0.0  8.1  0.0 0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0 0.0  6.3 2.7 8.1  0.0 0.0 0.0  6.9  0.0  0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0  0.0 0.0 0.0  19.4  1.1 1.5 3.1  0.0 0.0 2.9 2.4  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.1  and  Tobago  9.6  0.0  82.1  0.0  0.0  0.0  Tun i s i a  10.3  0.6  0.7  9.5  0.0  0.3  Uraguay  17.7  0.3  22.9  0.5  0.0  0.0  Venezuela  14.3  0.0  25.4  1.8  0.0  0.0  Zambi a  38.9  0.0  0.2  22.7  0.0  31 . 5 52.8  0.0  Z irababwe  16.2 6.6  30.1  0.0  Sourcei  United Nations. P r o f i l e s 1982.  1985. Energy B a l a n c e s And N e w Y o r k t U n i t e d Nat i o n s .  Electricity  15 The  i n t e r r e l a t e d n a t u r e of the i n d u s t r i a l , h o u s e h o l d ,  t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r s o f a c o u n t r y ' s economy h a s implications  f o r the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d .  is  largely  to  l e a d t o an  and  some s e r i o u s  Industrial  growth,  d e p e n d e n t on p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s , i s a l m o s t increase  s e r v i c e s which  in turn  i n the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n of goods i s s o l e l y d e p e n d e n t on  which  certain and  petroleum  products.  S i m i l a r l y , as h o u s e h o l d  industrial  growth w i t h i n the c o u n t r y , t h e r e i s a s t r o n g tendency  for  households  as kerosene  income i n c r e a s e s t h r o u g h  t o become d e p e n d e n t on n o n t r a d i t i o n a l  f o r cooking purposes,  a n d on e l e c t r i c i t y  which  i n p l a c e of t r a d i t i o n a l  i s u s u a l l y petroleum-based,  e x p a n d i n g demands f o r r e f r i g e r a t i o n , conditioning.  The  consequence  fuels  such ones,  for  e n t e r t a i n m e n t , and a i r  o f d e p e n d e n c e on p e t r o l e u m  energy  i s made e v i d e n t o r m a n i f e s t e d by t h e a f f e c t s o f h i g h o i l p r i c e s w h i c h were i n p l a c e f r o m 1973  to  1985.  2.1.1.2 H i g h O i l P r i c e s In fixing  1973/74 t h e o i l embargo and  the subsequent  o i l price  by t h e O r g a n i z a t i o n o f P e t r o l e u m E x p o r t i n g C o u n t r i e s  (OPEC) l e d t o s h a r p i n c r e a s e s i n w o r l d o i l t r a d i n g p r i c e s , p e r s i s t e d on t i l l  1985.  crude Arabian l i g h t US$35/barrel 1973/74 a n d crisis.  The  For example,  t h e p r i c e o f t y p i c a l OPEC  o i l i n c r e a s e d f r o m U S $ 2 . 4 / b a r r e l i n 1970  i n 1981.  1979/80, l e d t o a p r o f o u n d and e n d u r i n g consequences  is felt  is a crucial  to  R e c u r r e n t s h o r t a g e s of o i l s u p p l y i n  of sharp o i l p r i c e  energy  i n c r e a s e s on  w o r l d e c o n o m i e s h a v e been f a r r e a c h i n g , b u t t h e i r impact  which  the  greatest  by t h e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s f o r whom low c o s t o i l  ingredient  i n i n d u s t r i a l development  (Bach  and  16 Mathews, 1979).  After exploring this  (1977:164) c o n c l u d e  s i t u a t i o n S i d d i g i and  Hein  that,  Many c o u n t r i e s , e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e T h i r d W o r l d , had t o c u t back on t h e i r i m p o r t s o f f u e l s a s t h e i r b a l a n c e o f p a y m e n t s p l u n g e d d e e p l y i n t o t h e r e d . The r e d u c t i o n i n e n e r g y use c o n t r i b u t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y t o e c o n o m i c slowdowns i n t h e a f f e c t e d c o u n t r i e s . Even i n n a t i o n s w h i c h d i d n o t a c t u a l l y c u t back on o i l i m p o r t s , t h e r a t e of g r o w t h i n e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n was a t a l e v e l l o w e r t h a n h i s t o r i c norms, a s was t h e g r o w t h i n t h e economy. With p a r t i c u l a r  reference to developing African countries,  ( 1 9 7 7 : 1 9 2 - 1 9 3 ) c o n c u r s w i t h s u c h f i n d i n g s when he n o t e s  Baker  that,  A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s face large balance-of-payments d e f i c i t s , not o n l y because of t h e i n c r e a s e d c o s t of o i l , but a l s o as a r e s u l t of the c o n c o m i t a n t r i s e i n the p r i c e of m a n u f a c t u r e d goods i m p o r t e d from t h e d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . T h e s e d e f i c i t s c a n o n l y be c o v e r e d by f o r e i g n b o r r o w i n g , and t h i s i n t u r n a g g r a v a t e s t h e a l r e a d y a c u t e d e b t problem. To make m a t t e r s w o r s e , t h e r e c e s s i o n i n E u r o p e and t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s h a s r e d u c e d t h e demand f o r A f r i c a n raw m a t e r i a l s , t h e r e b y d e c r e a s i n g t h e i r e x p o r t value. I n a d d i t i o n , many c o u n t r i e s h a v e been p l a g u e d by p r o l o n g e d d r o u g h t and p o o r h a r v e s t , and t h i s h a s n e c e s s i t a t e d t h e i m p o r t a t i o n of f o o d a t h i g h p r i c e s . After  t h e 1973-74 s h a r p o i l p r i c e  i n c r e a s e s the  combined  deficit  o f t h e l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s jumped f r o m US$9  in  t o $37 b i l l i o n  1973  1977 to  i n 1975.  I t dropped  as a r e s u l t of t h e w o r l d i n d u s t r i a l  $27.5 b i l l i o n  i n 1979.  The  t o $22 b i l l i o n  r e c o v e r y , but  e x t e r n a l debt of these  d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s h a s been i n c r e a s i n g s t e a d i l y , a n d from banks  h a s been t h e m a i n s o u r c e o f f i n a n c e .  i s becoming to  increasingly d i f f i c u l t  prove themselves c r e d i t worthy.  Taking into  increase  the  d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s r o s e f r o m $3 b i l l i o n i n S e p t e m b e r 1979  in  increased less borrowing  Nevertheless i t  f o r many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s  the  billion  in their national  billion  consideration  r e s e r v e s , the net i n d e b t e d n e s s of i n 1974  (Petroleum Economist,  to  $44  1979a).  I n c r e a s e d o i l p r i c e s h a v e p l a c e d a s t r a i n on  traditional  17  sources of energy, to  environmental  such a s f i r e w o o d and c h a r c o a l , and have l e d  degradation.  Dunkerley  e t a l . (1981a:6)  d e s c r i b e t h e p r o c e s s when t h e y s a y , In t h e p a s t , a s t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s became more " e x p e n s i v e " e i t h e r because t h e i r c o l l e c t i o n r e q u i r e d i n c r e a s e d e f f o r t s ( f o r example, longer d a i l y walks t o forage f o r f i r e w o o d ) o r b e c a u s e t h e y became p a r t l y a p p r o p r i a t e d a n d c o m m e r c i a l i z e d f o r c a s h s a l e - t h e y were r e p l a c e d by commercial f u e l s , e s p e c i a l l y f o r c o o k i n g and l i g h t i n g , f i r s t by k e r o s e n e a n d s u b s e q u e n t l y by b o t t l e d g a s a n d electricity. W i t h t h e quantum jumps i n o i l a n d g a s p r i c e s , t h e s e t y p e s o f f u e l s u c c e s s i o n h a v e become more c o s t l y , p l a c i n g s t i l l f u r t h e r s t r a i n on t r a d i t i o n a l sources. S u c h s t r a i n s may l e a d t o v i c i o u s c i r c l e s o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e g r a d a t i o n : t h e heightened b u r n i n g of c a t t l e dung a n d v e g e t a b l e w a s t e s , d e p l e t i n g t h e s o i l o f needed n u t r i e n t s and sometimes a d d i t i o n a l d e f o r e s t a t i o n l e a d i n g t o s o i l e r o s i o n and d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n , f o u l i n g of downstream w a t e r s , and s i l t a t i o n of r e s e r v o i r s . They a l s o l e a d i n some c a s e s t o r e d u c e d amounts o f c o o k i n g a n d lower n u t r i t i o n a l standards. The  p r o b l e m s o f wood f u e l a n d o i l a r e c o m p l e m e n t a r y , a s one  scarcity The  reinforces the other. problem  of h i g h o i l p r i c e s a f f e c t s  d e v e l o p i n g r e g i o n s i n v a r y i n g ways.  different  As t h e W o r l d  Bank  (1980a:2)  notes, In d e s i g n i n g p o l i c i e s t o h e l p r e s o l v e i t s e n e r g y problems, every country faces a unique s e t of c o n d i t i o n s , i n c l u d i n g i t s l e v e l o f income a n d d e g r e e o f i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n , i t s e n e r g y r e s o u r c e endowment, t h e r e l a t i v e importance of c o m m e r c i a l a n d t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s , i t s d e g r e e o f d e p e n d e n c e on p e t r o l e u m i m p o r t s a n d o t h e r f a c t o r s . But s i n c e the r i s e i n t h e p r i c e of petroleum, t h e degree of d e p e n d e n c e on p e t r o l e u m i m p o r t s h a s become t h e most important s i n g l e f a c t o r . For t h e purposes  of t h i s d i s c u s s i o n developing c o u n t r i e s are  g r o u p e d i n t o OPEC members, non-OPEC members w h i c h  are net o i l  e x p o r t i n g , and n e t o i l i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s .  H i g h O i l P r i c e s And OPEC Within the developing world are the t h i r t e e n countries  18 w h i c h make up OPEC. these countries  Among t h e l a r g e s t s u p p l i e r s o f p e t r o l e u m ,  dominated the current  g l o b a l energy  scene  b e t w e e n 1973 a n d 1 9 8 1 . OPEC c o n s i s t s o f A l g e r i a , Gabon, I r a q , Kuwait, L i b y a , Qatar, Saudi A r a b i a ,  United  Venezuela, Ecuador, Indonesia and N i g e r i a . OPEC n a t i o n s ,  unlikely  that  Arab Emirates,  Relative  N i g e r i a and Indonesia possess s m a l l  Given the large population they w i l l  to other  oil  o f t h e s e two c o u n t r i e s ,  s u s t a i n both large  Iran,  reserves.  i t is  s c a l e e x p o r t s and  s u b s t a n t i a l domestic consumption of p e t r o l e u m i n t h e next decade unless  significant  developed.  new d i s c o v e r i e s a r e made o r a l t e r n a t e  Moreover, because t h e l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n  crude o i l produced i s exported t o obtain net  o i l exporting  local  countries  of  f o r e i g n e x c h a n g e , many  i n the developing world  shortages of petroleum products.  sources  experience  F o r e x a m p l e , a s Ngoka  (1981:116) remarks, Although N i g e r i a produces o i l , very o f t e n , [ s i c ] the c o u n t r y e x p e r i e n c e s s e r i o u s o i l problems. Several p e t r o l s t a t i o n s a r e o u t of s u p p l i e s and m o t o r i s t s spend s e v e r a l hours hunting f o r f i l l i n g s t a t i o n s with s u p p l i e s . These o f t e n d i s r u p t t h e economic l i f e of t h e community. M o s t p e o p l e a r e n o t i n t h e i r o f f i c e s a s t h e y may be l o o k i n g f o r f u e l or a r e unable t o g e t around because of empty p e t r o l t a n k s i n t h e i r c a r s . Moss a n d M o r g a n  (1981:11) p o i n t  developing countries  face  o u t t h e r e a s o n s why o i l r i c h  a domestic energy  crisis:  Even o i l r i c h l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s l i k e N i g e r i a f a c e an e n e r g y p r o b l e m b e c a u s e h i g h w o r l d o i l p r i c e s e n c o u r a g e h i g h o i l , k e r o s e n e a n d p e t r o l p r i c e s i n N i g e r i a ... M o r e o v e r , l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s have l i m i t e d and o f t e n i n e f f i c i e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n s y s t e m s w h i c h make e v e n l o c a l l y r e f i n e d o i l e x p e n s i v e by t h e t i m e t h e p r o d u c t r e a c h e s the consumer. T h e i r c o n s u m p t i o n t e n d s t o be s m a l l a n d d i s p e r s e d s o t h a t t h e more p r o f i t a b l e a n d e a s i e r c o u r s e i s t o e x p o r t r a t h e r t h a n t r y t o d e v e l o p t h e home m a r k e t , which i s o f t e n a slow and expensive p r o c e s s . H i g h o i l p r i c e s have v a r y i n g  i m p a c t s on t h e n a t i o n a l  19 e c o n o m i e s o f OPEC members. increases generate, oil  producing  On t h e one h a n d , OPEC p r i c e  i n a b s o l u t e terms,  countries.  h i g h o i l revenues f o r the  F o r i n s t a n c e , t o t a l o i l revenue  r e c e i p t s by OPEC members b e t w e e n 1972 a n d 1977 r e g i s t e r e d an i n c r e a s e o f a b o u t 790 p e r c e n t , t o US$128 b i l l i o n . fourteen percent, g e n e r a l surge  S i n c e t o t a l OPEC e x p o r t s f r o m 25.5 t o 29.1 m i l l i o n  i n cash  i n c r e a s e s r a t h e r than revenues enable  from a p p r o x i m a t e l y  f l o w was a l m o s t  i n c r e a s e d by o n l y b a r r e l s per day, the  t o t a l l y due t o p r i c e  increases i n production.  These o i l  OPEC members t o n o u r i s h a n d m a i n t a i n  development of t h e i r  countries.  a c c o m p a n i e d by c o r r e s p o n d i n g  Yet o i l p r i c e  i n c r e a s e s i n t h e p r i c e o f goods and  imported  industrialized  n a t i o n s the high cost of imported  c o n t r i b u t e s t o sharp  economic  increases are  services being  goods w h i c h ,  US$14 b i l l i o n  by t h e s e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s .  Within  energy  i n c r e a s e s i n t h e p r i c e of manufactured  when i m p o r t e d  i n l a r g e q u a n t i t i e s by OPEC members,  erode t h e o i l revenues of these d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . High begins  energy p r i c e s c o n t r i b u t e t o economic r e c e s s i o n which  i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d  c o u n t r i e s , thereby  reducing the  l e v e l o f o i l i m p o r t s a n d , i n t u r n , t h e income o f OPEC members. In a d d i t i o n , h i g h o i l p r i c e s a c c e l e r a t e t h e implementation programs l e a d i n g t o reduced  of  d e p e n d e n c e on OPEC f o r w o r l d o i l  c o n s u m p t i o n , a s i l l u s t r a t e d i n T a b l e 2.3. In million  a b s o l u t e terms,  OPEC o i l p r o d u c t i o n d r o p p e d f r o m 28.8  i n 1970 - 1979 t o 18 m i l l i o n  i n 1982 ( s e e T a b l e 2 . 4 ) .  Amu ( 1 9 8 2 a : 9 - 1 0 ) d e m o n s t r a t e s t h e c r i t i c a l  consequences of  h i g h o i l p r i c e s on t h e OPEC o i l m a r k e t when he w r o t e t h a t , U n d o u b t e d l y , h i g h o i l p r i c e s have s e t i n m o t i o n energy c o n s e r v a t i o n measures, development of  TABLE 2.3 OIL PRICE CHANGE, AND OPEC'S OIL AS PERCENT OF WORLD O I L CONSUMPTION  YEAR  TOTAL WORLD OIL CONSUMPTION MBD  1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981  Sources:  35.6 38.9. 42.7 45.7 48.5 51.2 56.0 54.2 53.0 57.9 59.9 62.0 65.0 60.0 56.9  OPEC, 1982.  PERCENT CHANGE  6.9 9.3 9.8 7.0 6.1 5.6 9.4 -3.2 -2.2 9.2 3.5 3.5 5.2 -27.2 - 4.6  OPEC SUPPLY MBD  16.8 18.7 20.9 23.4 25.3 27.1 31.0 30.7 27.7 30.6 31.9 29.1 31.0 25.0 23.0  OPEC b u l l e t i n .  PERCENT CHANGE  6.3 11.3 11.8 12.0 8.1 7.1 14.4 -1.0. -11.7 12.9 4.2 -8.9 6.7 -18.1 -9.4  XIII(8).  POSTED PRICE OF A TYPICAL OPEC CRUDE ARABIAN LIGHT OIL USE/BBL  2.2 2.2 2.2 2.4 3.2 3.4 8.4 11.7 13.7 14.0 15.5 14.9 33.0 44.4 35.0  PERCENT CHANGE  OPEC'S SUPPLY AS % OF^WORLD'S OIL CONSUMPTION  —  0.0 0.0 9.1 33.3 6.3 157.1 39.3 17.1 2.2 10.7 -3.9 121.5 34.5 -21.2  47.2 48.1 48.9 51.2 52.1 52.9 55.4 56.6 51.0 52.8 53.3 46.9 47.4 42.3 40.4  September. V i e n n a , A u s t r i a .  L. AMU, 1982. O i l g l u t and t h e N i g e r i a n economy. Lagos: N i g e r i a n N a t i o n a l Petroleum C o r p o r a t i o n . M. O l a r u n f e m i , 1982. N i g e r i a and OPEC. NAPETCOR. N i g e r i a n N a t i o n a l Petroleum C o r p o r a t i o n .  NAPETCOR.  3(4) .  3(2) pp 3-9.  pp 3-11.  Lagos:  21 TABLE 2.4 OPEC COUNTRIES' AVERAGE D A I L Y PRODUCTION FROM 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 7 9 , AND THE L E V E L OF PRODUCTION QUOTAS I N 1982  Country  Average Production ( 000 B/D) 1970 - 1979  %  Share of OPEC Production  1982 Production Quota ('000 B/D)  1982 Product ion Q u o t a s As % Of A v e r a g e Production  Algeria  1,049.5  3.63  650.0  61 .9  Ecuador  282.7  0.98  200.0  70.7  Gabon  188.2  0.65  150.0  79.7  Indonesia  1 ,469.8  5.08  1,300.0  88.4  I ran  4,500.2  15.56  1,200.0  26.7  I raq  2,203.4  7.62  1,200.0  54.5  Kuwait  2,249.4  7.78  650.0  28.9  Libya  1,845.7  6.34  750.0  40.6  Nigeria  1,973.5  6.82  1,300.0  65.9  1 .67  300.0  Qatar  ' 482.8  62.1  Saudi Arabia  8,459.1  29.25  7,500.0  88.7  U A E  1,688.0  5.84  1 ,000.0  59.2  Venezuela  2,528.0  8.74  1,500.0  59.3  Neutral Zone Total  Source:  300.0 28,920.3  100.00  N a t i o n a l Concord, A p r i l  18,000.0  62.5  14, 1 9 8 2 , L a g o s , N i g e r i a , p. 4  22 a l t e r n a t i v e energy sources such as n u c l e a r , s o l a r energy, and s y n c r u d e s such as o i l and gas from c o a l and biomass. In a d d i t i o n , i t has a c c e l e r a t e d the development of h i t h e r t o uneconomic o r m a r g i n a l o i l f i e l d s i n non-OPEC a r e a s e . g . B r i t a i n a n d Norway who p r e v i o u s l y were c o n s u m e r s a r e now e x p o r t e r s i n c o m p e t i t i o n w i t h OPEC o i l . S i m i l a r l y , the u n c e r t a i n t i e s r e g a r d i n g o i l s u p p l y due t o g e o - p o l i t i c a l s i t u a t i o n i n t h e M i d d l e E a s t has [ s i c ] l e d t o a m a s s i v e b u i l d up i n o i l s t o c k s . Thus a s i t u a t i o n o f n e a r o i l s h o r t a g e o f 1979 was t u r n e d t o one n o t o n l y of s u r p l u s o i l f l o a t i n g i n t h e market today but l a t e r t o a p o s s i b l e downward c a s c a d i n g o f o i l p r i c e s . T h e r e a r e now s e v e n t y o i l p r o d u c i n g c o u n t r i e s w o r l d o n l y t h i r t e e n o f w h i c h a r e OPEC members. c o u n t r i e s c u r r e n t l y account oil in  i n the  T h e s e OPEC  f o r j u s t o n e - t h i r d of t o t a l  global  p r o d u c t i o n , c o m p a r e d t o 53 p e r c e n t o f w o r l d o i l p r o d u c t i o n 1 9 7 3 , a n d 48 p e r c e n t i n 1 9 7 9 . M o r e o v e r ,  w h i c h were a b o u t that p r i c e .  $31 a b a r r e l  i n late  1 9 8 5 , now a r e a b o u t  half  As a r e s u l t , o n l y t h o s e OPEC members w h i c h h a v e  sparse p o p u l a t i o n and l a r g e f i n a n c i a l difficulties plans.  crude o i l p r i c e s  r e s e r v e s do n o t f a c e  f i n a n c i n g t h e i r enormous a n d a m b i t i o u s  The o t h e r s s u f f e r  from i n c r e a s i n g d e f i c i t s and e x t e r n a l  borrowing, experience d i f f i c u l t i e s are v i c t i m s of r i s i n g  development  inflation.  s e r v i c i n g c u r r e n t d e b t s , and The s i t u a t i o n  i s compounded by  t h e f a c t t h a t some o f t h o s e d e b t o r OPEC c o u n t r i e s a r e a l m o s t totally  dependent  earnings.  on o i l e x p o r t s f o r t h e i r  i n debt,  95 p e r c e n t o f i t s e x p o r t  N i g e r i a , w h i c h i s $10 b i l l i o n  a c c o u n t s f o r about  i n d e b t , d e p e n d s on o i l  80 p e r c e n t o f i t s f o r e i g n e x c h a n g e  w h i l e E c u a d o r , w h i c h owes $7 b i l l i o n , t o 60 p e r c e n t o f i t s e x p o r t e a r n i n g s . oil  exchange  F o r i n s t a n c e V e n e z u e l a , w h i c h i s $35 b i l l i o n  d e p e n d s on o i l e x p o r t s f o r a b o u t revenue.  foreign  revenue,  r e l i e s on o i l f o r a b o u t 45 Many o f t h e d e b t o r OPEC  p r o d u c e r s a l r e a d y were i n n e a r f i n a n c i a l c r i s i s  following  23 the r e c e s s i o n of the e a r l y s e v e r e l y a f f e c t e d them. only lack the c a p i t a l  1980s, and t h e o i l p r i c e  As a r e s u l t ,  f a l l has  many OPEC c o u n t r i e s n o t  f o r o i l e x p l o r a t i o n and development of  o t h e r n o n t r a d i t i o n a l e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s , b u t now f a c e pressures  t o export  r a t h e r than conserve  petroleum  r e s o u r c e s because t h e y have s t a k e d t h e i r  f u t u r e on s a l e s o f  their  stronger  rapidly depleting economic  petroleum.  Non-OPEC N e t O i l E x p o r t i n g D e v e l o p i n g  Countries  There a r e t h i r t e e n c o u n t r i e s i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g  world  which  a r e n o t OPEC members b u t w h i c h a r e n e t o i l e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s . These i n c l u d e A n g o l a , Mexico,  Syria,  Bahrain, B o l i v i a , B r u n e i , Egypt,  T r i n i d a d and Tabago, I v o r y C o a s t , T u n i s i a ,  Cameroon a n d Z a i r e .  With  the exception of Mexico,  c o u n t r i e s have r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l r e s e r v e s o f o i l . p r i c e s have f a c i l i t a t e d w i t h i n these areas,  currency  necessary  which i s  Domestic consumption i s  t o f i n a n c e l o a n s and needed f o r e i g n  f o r the i m p o r t a t i o n of s k i l l s ,  technology  High o i l  f o r e i g n borrowing  from o i l e x p o r t s .  i n an e f f o r t  these  e x p l o r a t i o n and development of o i l  financed through  s e r v i c e d by e a r n i n g s sacrificed  Malaysia,  equipment and  t o n o u r i s h and m a i n t a i n  their  modern  economies. I n many i n s t a n c e s t h i s g r o u p o f d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s f a c e s problems s i m i l a r  t o those  experienced  by OPEC members i n t e r m s  of a d j u s t i n g t h e i r  economies t o h i g h energy p r i c e s .  by t h e W o r l d Bank  (1980a:3),  As i s n o t e d  M o s t o f them n e e d more c a p i t a l t h a n t h e y c a n p r o v i d e f r o m t h e i r own s a v i n g s . W h i l e t h e i r o i l e x p o r t s l e s s e n t h e b a l a n c e o f p a y m e n t s c o n s t r a i n t , t h e y t o o must u s e energy as e f f i c i e n t l y as p o s s i b l e , t o maximize t h e i r  24 e x p o r t e a r n i n g s and t o extend t h e p r o d u c t i v e l i f e of t h e i r r e s e r v e s . Higher energy p r i c e s a l s o a f f e c t t h e i r c o m p a r a t i v e a d v a n t a g e , i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e m e n t s and intersectoral priorities. Non-OPEC o i l p r o d u c i n g significant oil in  glut,  developing countries represent a  f o r c e i n the g l o b a l o i l scene.  though p a r t l y  industrialized  The r e c e n t g l o b a l  a s s o c i a t e d w i t h slow  economic  countries, i s to a significant  activities  degree caused  by u n c o n t r o l l e d o i l p r o d u c t i o n a n d t h e r e d u c t i o n o f o i l p r i c e s by non-OPEC p r o d u c e r s , nations.  i n c l u d i n g both developed  T o d a y , non-OPEC o i l p r o d u c i n g  and nondeveloped  developing countries,  l i k e many OPEC members, f a c e t h e t w i n b u r d e n s o f p l u n g i n g revenue from o i l s a l e s and heavy debt burdens. OPEC, some o f t h o s e d e b t o r countries'  a r e almost  exchange e a r n i n g s .  non-OPEC o i l p r o d u c i n g  entirely  developing  For example, Mexico,  the developing  (next t o B r a z i l )  w i t h a b o u t $96  i n l o a n s o u t s t a n d i n g , g e t s a b o u t 70 p e r c e n t  "foreign exchange revenue from o i l s a l e s . producing  importing c o u n t r i e s comprise  p o p u l a t i o n , and about f o r t y Excluding China, ten m i l l i o n  f o r over percent  (NOIDC)  t h e l a r g e m a j o r i t y of t h e fifty  percent  of the world's  of the population.  c o m b i n e d e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n i n 1978 was  b a r r e l s p e r day o f o i l e q u i v a l e n t , o r t e n p e r c e n t o f  world consumption For  their  f o r o i l exports,  demands, i s r e l e n t l e s s .  Net O i l I m p o r t i n g D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s  developing world, accounting  of i t s  F o r most non-OPEC o i l  developing c o u n t r i e s , the pressure  even a t t h e s a c r i f i c e of d o m e s t i c  Oil  to  d e p e n d e n t on o i l f o r f o r e i g n  c o u n t r i e s second l a r g e s t debtor billion  Also similar  (Eden e t a l . , 1 9 8 1 ) .  the m a j o r i t y of o i l importing developing c o u n t r i e s ,  25 imported o i l accounts f o r at l e a s t  75 p e r c e n t o f  n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy consumption.  The  their  few e x c e p t i o n s a r e  c o u n t r i e s s u c h a s I n d i a , C h i n a , Zimbabwe, K o r e a , P a k i s t a n  and  Zambia w h i c h a r e l e s s t h a n 50 p e r c e n t d e p e n d e n t on o i l o w i n g  to  e x t e n s i v e u s e o f c o a l , and whose m i n e s were d e v e l o p e d b e f o r e t h e e r a of c h e a p o i l ( W o r l d Bank, 1979a; D u n k e r l e y e t a l . ,  1981a).  I n g e n e r a l , o i l a c c o u n t s f o r o v e r 50 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l  energy  consumed i n n e t o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , and o v e r p e r c e n t o f t h e o i l consumed i s i m p o r t e d , a s i l l u s t r a t e d Table  75  in  2.5. These o i l i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e p o o r , p o p u l o u s  given their prices.  r e l a t i v e economic  In a d d i t i o n ,  as whether  t o borrow  m a i n t a i n economic  w e a k n e s s , h a r d e s t h i t by h i g h o i l  they are faced w i t h d i f f i c u l t f u n d s t o pay  growth.  c h o i c e s such  f o r t h e c r u d e o i l t h e y need t o  Moreover,  their difficulties  w o r s e n e d by t h e s i m u l t a n e o u s d e c l i n e  i n the a b i l i t y  i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s to purchase  their  are g e n e r a l l y  and,  of  raw m a t e r i a l s ,  the p r i m a r y , i f not the s o l e s o u r c e of  e x c h a n g e f o r most d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s  are  ( S m i l and  which  foreign  Knowland,  1981). Initially  i t seemed t h a t o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g  c o u n t r i e s w e r e , i n g e n e r a l , m a k i n g smooth a d j u s t m e n t s i n c r e a s i n g energy p r i c e s . growth  rate declined  p e r c e n t from  1974  Although t h e i r average  from 7 p e r c e n t p r i o r  t o 1978,  this  t o 1973  lower growth  o n l y w i t h h i g h l e v e l s o f b o r r o w i n g and  economic and t o 5  r a t e was  i n OPEC c o u n t r i e s .  After  1978  achieved  recycled petro dollar  s u r p l u s i n t h e f o r m o f f o r e i g n e x c h a n g e e a r n i n g s by workers  to  i t became  emigrant  increasingly  26  TABLE 2.5 NOIDC ENERGY BALANCE, 1 9 6 0 - 1 9 8 0 , I N M I L L I O N BD OF O I L EQUIVALENT  Total Energy Consumption Oil Non-Oil Total  Year  1  Net O i l Imports  O i l As % Of T o t a l Energy  Net I m p o r t s As % Of Total O i l Consumed  1960  1.5  1.3  2.8  1.2  54  80  1970  3.3  ' 2.2  5.5  2.6  60  79  1973  4.2  2.6  6.8  3.5  62  62  1974  4.3  2.7  7.0  3.5  61  81  1975  4.3  2.9  7.2  3.5  60  81  1976  4.4  3.4  7.8  3.5  56  50  1977  4.5  3.9  8.4  3.5  54  78  1980  4.8  5.0  9.8  3.5  49  73  5.4  7.1  12.5  3.5  43  65  1985  2  Source:  M. S i d d a y a o . 1 9 7 9 . The O i l - P o o r D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s And U.S. E n e r g y P o l i c y : A P r e l i m i n a r y A s s e s s m e n t . The P h i l i p p i n e R e v i e w Of E c o n o m i c s And B u s i n e s s . p. 8 3 - 1 0 3 . V o l . 2, J u n e . p. 9 1 .  1  T r a d i t i o n a l and n o n t r a d i t i o n a l  2  Estimate  energy.  27 difficult  t o s e c u r e f o r e i g n l o a n s , due t o e c o n o m i c r e c e s s i o n i n  the developed w o r l d , which c o n t r i b u t e d t o h i g h i n t e r e s t The  c o n t r a c t s of emigrant  workers  were c a n c e l l e d  d e p r e s s e d OPEC o i l s a l e s , a n d t h e p o t e n t i a l in  rates.  i n response t o  f o r economic  crisis  o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s became o b v i o u s . Siddayao  (1979:91) e x p l o r e s t h e i m p a c t s o f h i g h o i l  p r i c e s on t h e e c o n o m i e s o f n e t o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , and e x p l a i n s  that,  The i m p a c t o f w o r l d o i l p r i c e i n c r e a s e s on an NOILDC's b a l a n c e o f p a y m e n t s (BOP) may be g r o u p e d i n t o those that a r e d i r e c t and those that a r e i n d i r e c t . The d i r e c t impact i s t h e f o r e i g n exchange l o s s e s from t h e h i g h e r o i l p r i c e s , i . e . , t h e e f f e c t on a c o u n t r y ' s current account. The i n d i r e c t BOP i m p a c t i s f e l t by a c o u n t r y s u f f e r i n g from h i g h e r c o s t s o f e n e r g y - i n t e n s i v e producer goods. Sources  s u c h a s Eden e t a l . ,  (1981), Dunkerley  the World  Bank ( 1 9 7 9 a ) a n d S i d d a y a o  aggregate  financial  determine  (1981b)  (1979) i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e  indebtedness of net o i l importing c o u n t r i e s  has d o u b l e d , and t h e i r c u r r e n t a c c o u n t This i s i l l u s t r a t e d  et a l . ,  i n T a b l e 2.6.  d e f i c i t s have  Although  tripled.  i ti s difficult to  how much o f t h e i n c r e a s e i n t h e d e f i c i t s o f n e t o i l  importing developing countries  i s caused  i n c r e a s e s , sources such as t h e World  by OPEC o i l p r i c e  Bank ( 1 9 7 9 a : l )  indicate  that, E s t i m a t e s by OECD, C i t i B a n k a n d UNCIAD h a v e p u t t h e d e t e r i o r a t i o n o f t h e OIDC [ O i l I m p o r t i n g D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s ] t r a d e a c c o u n t due t o OPEC p r i c e i n c r e a s e s a t $20.3 b i l l i o n , $20 b i l l i o n a n d $40.8 b i l l i o n r e s p e c t i v e l y ... T h i s s o u r c e c o n c l u d e s t h a t 40 t o 60 p e r c e n t o f t h e r i s e aggregate due  i nthe  i n d e b t e d n e s s o f OIDC members b e t w e e n 1973 a n d 1978 was  t o t h e OPEC p r i c e Today t h e p l i g h t  rise. of t h e m a j o r i t y of net o i l i m p o r t i n g  28  TABLE 2.6 CURRENT ACCOUNT D E F I C I T S , NET O I L IMPORTING DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 1973 - 1978 $BILLION  Year  94 NOIDC  A l l NOIDC  1973  -10.8  -9.4  1974  -30.0  -39.0  1975  -38.0  -49.0  1976  -28.0  -41.0  1977  -29.0  -21 .2  1978  Source:  -31 .3  M. S i d d a y a o . 1979. The O i l - P o o r D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s A n d U.S. E n e r g y P o l i c y : A P r e l i m i n a r y Assessment. The P h i l i p p i n e R e v i e w Of E c o n o m i c s And B u s i n e s s . p. 83-103. V o l . V X I , No. 2, J u n e . p. 93.  29 countries  i s one o f m u l t i p l e d e f a u l t s , e m e r g e n c y d e b t  rescheduling, tight credit f o r d e a l i n g w i t h domestic growth.  restricted  economic p o l i c y , and slow  There i s a c h a i n r e a c t i o n of a c c e l e r a t e d  a c c o m p a n i e d by d o m e s t i c current  lines, deficits,  fall  shortages  in o i l prices naturally  on o t h e r a r e a s  economic inflation  o f consumer g o o d s .  The  b e n e f i t s the net o i l  i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , by f r e e i n g spending  latitude  f o r e i g n exchange f o r  such as debt payments,  improvements and economic growth programs.  capital  A t t h e same t i m e ,  cheap o i l h e l p s t o promote t h e p o t e n t i a l  f o r d e p e n d e n c e by t h e s e  d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s on f i n i t e p e t r o l e u m  r e s o u r c e s and  interests  i n the search  suppress  f o r a l t e r n a t e new e n e r g y o p t i o n s .  Even i f economic d i f f i c u l t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h h i g h p r i c e s o f o i l were t o l e s s e n , t h e p r o b l e m o f t h e p o t e n t i a l d e p e n d e n c e on p e t r o l e u m  f o r huge  r e s o u r c e s by d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s  compounded by t h r e e o t h e r  factors.  First,  there are l i m i t e d  g l o b a l o i l r e s o u r c e s , a n d many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s do n o t h a v e domestic  s t o c k s of petroleum-based energy r e s o u r c e s .  Second,  t h e r e a r e numerous c o n s t r a i n t s t o p r o v i d e a l t e r n a t e e n e r g y s u p p l i e s from o t h e r n o n t r a d i t i o n a l n a t u r a l gas, n u c l e a r , hydro, resources. those  sources  heavy o i l ,  T h i r d , many d e v e l o p i n g  of energy  including  t a r sands and o i l s h a l e  countries - particularly  i n the net o i l importing c a t e g o r i e s - are experiencing  serious shortages  of t r a d i t i o n a l  As a r e s u l t o f t h e s e  f o r e s t energy  resources.  f a c t o r s t h e r e a r e numerous  t o p r o v i d e a l t e r n a t e new e n e r g y s u p p l i e s f r o m d o m e s t i c sources  such as s o l a r and b i o g a s .  attempts renewable  30 2.1.2  S o u r c e s Of N o n t r a d i t i o n a l E n e r g y And In Developing Countries  Supply  Constraints  T h a t t h e r e a r e l i m i t s t o r e s o u r c e s i s o b v i o u s ; where these l i m i t s are i s the q u e s t i o n t h a t remains unanswered ( F o l e y , 1981:54). The  extent  of g l o b a l e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s  ongoing debate, p a r t i c u l a r l y (1974) a s s e r t s t h a t  the  t h a t of  earth's  has  been t h e  fossil  topic  fuels.  Mancke  r e m a i n i n g s u p p l i e s of  petroleum are  enormous and  cautions  t a k i n g a d v a n t a g e of t h i s abundance can  quick  that  or cheap.  In other  abundant, they are  not  (1977) c o n c l u d e s t h a t decade b e g i n n i n g can  be  subtitled  IIASA  known  (1981) be  w o r d s , a l t h o u g h s u p p l i e s may  there  may  be  The  neither be  WAES R e p o r t  a s h o r t a g e a s e a r l y as  of e a s i l y a c c e s s i b l e  recovered.  " W a r n i n g On  g r o w i n g , but  necessarily accessible.  i n 1985  economically  still  of  fossil  f u e l s which  Rahmer ( 1 9 8 3 : 3 2 9 ) , i n an  Crude O i l R e s e r v e s " r e p o r t s  the  article  that,  The a s s e s s m e n t o f W o r l d C r u d e O i l R e s e r v e s and R e s o u r c e s p r e p a r e d by t h r e e A m e r i c a n e x p e r t s - M e s s r s . M a s t e r s , R o o t and D i e t z m a n - f o r t h i s y e a r ' s e l e v e n t h w o r l d p e t r o l e u m c o n g r e s s l e a v e s l i t t l e room f o r c o m p l a c e n c y . The a u t h o r s s p e c i f i c a l l y warn t h a t i t w o u l d n o t be p r u d e n t t o a n t i c i p a t e r i c h e s from a r e a s w h i c h have not y e t been p r o p e r l y t e s t e d , and t h a t t h e n e e d f o r a l t e r n a t i v e e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s c o u l d become i n c r e a s i n g l y c r i t i c a l f o r most c o u n t r i e s . " T h e r e i s an immense q u a n t i t y of c o n v e n t i o n a l crude o i l i n the w o r l d , " they s t a t e , "but our c a p a c i t y f o r c o n s u m p t i o n , h o w e v e r , i s p e r f e c t l y c a p a b l e of c h a l l e n g i n g t h i s i m m e n s i t y . " The  question  of a c c e s s i b i l i t y  e c o n o m i c , t e c h n i c a l , and  revolves  around  social,  environmental considerations.  The  d e g r e e of t h e s e c o n s t r a i n t s v a r i e s from r e g i o n  to region.  developing  " p o l l u t i o n of  poverty"  countries f o r the  t i g h t l y bound by  seem w i l l i n g  to trade  the  " p o l l u t i o n of a f f l u e n c e " , they f i n d t e c h n i c a l and  economic c o n s t r a i n t s .  While  themselves  31 Petroleum O i l  2.1.2.1  Estimates  of u l t i m a t e l y  are u n c e r t a i n b u t , as F o l e y course  T h i s e s t i m a t e was  "A  prudent  2000 b i l l i o n  barrels  and  billion  i n Table  Of  b a r r e l s (88 b i l l i o n billion  M i n e s , R e s o u r c e s Canada  tonnes),  t o n n e s ) i s t h e amount  (Foley, 1981).  Similar  estimates  b a r r e l s of w o r l d p r o v e n p e t r o l e u m o i l  r e s e r v e s h a v e been made by t h e W o r l d Bank (1979)  ( 1 9 8 0 a ) and  Energy,  respectively.  o i l s u p p l i e s are concentrated  i n c o u n t r i e s which  T h e s e c o u n t r i e s h o l d more t h a n  of e s t i m a t e d  r e c o v e r a b l e o i l r e s e r v e s , 70 p e r c e n t  proven world  r e s e r v e s , and  80 p e r c e n t  40  reserves.  Net  of o i l r e s e r v e s i n the  (Eden e t a l . , 1 9 8 1 ) .  Proven reserves i n  f o r o n l y about 7 percent  of w o r l d  are the s i t e  o f a b o u t one  nine b i l l i o n  b a r r e l s ( W o r l d Bank, 1 9 8 0 a ) .  non-  are  proven  o i l i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s of the d e v e l o p i n g percent  percent  of c u r r e n t  OPEC n e t o i l e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s o f t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d small, accounting  the  Proven  b a r r e l s (131  a r e members o f OPEC.  2.7.  t o n n e s ) h a v e a l r e a d y been consumed.  645.85 b i l l i o n  noncommunist w o r l d  right."  billion  t o y e t be d i s c o v e r e d  Petroleum  t o be  t o n n e s ) , 401.46  642.34 b i l l i o n  w h i l e 956.20 b i l l i o n estimated  This i s i l l u s t r a t e d  b a r r e l s (274  (55 b i l l i o n  reserves represent  b a r r e l s i s t h e more l i k e l y  accepted  a r r i v e d a t by a v a r i e t y o f r e s e a r c h e r s , u s i n g  d i f f e r e n t approaches.  o f 640  (1981:131) p o i n t s o u t ,  a t t h e moment i s t o assume t h a t t h e g e n e r a l l y  f i g u r e o f 2,000 b i l l i o n  total  recoverable world o i l resources  world  of w o r l d proven r e s e r v e s , or  i n d i c a t e t h a t a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n o f new  However,  sources  a d d i t i o n s to g l o b a l o i l  r e s e r v e s w i l l come f r o m n e t o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . Dunkerley  et a l . ( 1 9 8 1 b : 2 1 ) , f o r example, i n v e s t i g a t e p r o s p e c t s  32  TABLE 2.7 ESTIMATES OF ULTIMATE WORLD RESOURCES OF CONVENTIONAL O I L  Year 1942 1946 1946 1948 1949 1949 1953 1956 1958 1959 1965 1967 1968 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1975 1977 1978 Sources:  Source P r a t t , Weeks a n d S t e b i n g e r Duce Pogue Weeks Levorsen Weeks MacNaughton Hubbert Weeks Weeks H e n d r i c k s (USGS) Tyman (ESSO) Shell Weeks Hubbert Moody ( M o b i l ) Warman (BP) Weeks Moody a n d G e i g e r D e s p r a i r i e s (WEC)-Delphi Nehr i n g  In  10  9  Barrels  600 400 555 610 1500 1010 1000 1250 1500 2000 2480 2090 1800 2200 1350-2100 1800 1200-2000 2290 2000 1280-2560 2025  R. Eden e t a l . 1 9 8 1 . E n e r g y E c o n o m i c s , G r o w t h , R e s o u r c e s And P o l i c i e s , C a m b r i d g e : C a m b r i d g e University Press. G. F o l e y . 1 9 8 1 . The E n e r g y Q u e s t i o n , 2nd E d i t i o n . New Y o r k : P e n g u i n B o o k s . p. 130.  33 for  d i s c o v e r y and development of a d d i t i o n a l o i l and gas  resources  i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s and f i n d  that,  A p p r o x i m a t e l y 600 s e d i m e n t a r y b a s i n s h a v e been i d e n t i f i e d throughout t h e w o r l d w i t h p o t e n t i a l f o r o i l o r gas discoveries. A b o u t 400 o f t h e s e h a v e h a d some d r i l l i n g to d a t e . The 200 b a s i n s w h i c h h a v e n o t been e x p l o r e d a r e m o s t l y l o c a t e d i n a r e a s where d e v e l o p m e n t o f o i l a n d g a s r e s o u r c e s w o u l d be h i g h - c o s t , s u c h a s t h e A r t i e a n d d e e p o f f shore a r e a s , and c o n t i n e n t a l i n t e r i o r s such as t h e m i d - u p p e r Amazon a n d c e n t r a l A f r i c a . Many o f t h e b a s i n s w h i c h r e m a i n t o be e x p l o r e d a r e i n LDGs [ l e s s d e v e l o p e d countries]. A s t u d y c o n d u c t e d f o r t h e W o r l d Bank o f o i l and g a s p r o s p e c t s i n s e v e n t y LDCs c o n c l u d e d t h a t o f t h e t e n n o n o i l p r o d u c e r s w i t h known r e s e r v e s , s i x h a d " v e r y h i g h " o r " h i g h " p o t e n t i a l r e s e r v e s ( o v e r 750 m i l l i o n b a r r e l s ) and f o u r had " f a i r " o r " l o w " p o t e n t i a l r e s e r v e s ( l e s s t h a n 750 m i l l i o n b a r r e l s ) . Of t h e f o r t y - f i v e n o n o i l p r o d u c e r s w i t h o u t d i s c o v e r i e s t o d a t e , f i v e had "very h i g h " or " h i g h " p o t e n t i a l r e s e r v e s , and f o r t y had " f a i r " or " l o w " p o t e n t i a l r e s e r v e s . Further, t h i s author production  indicates that substantial  i n a number o f d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e p o s s i b l e , a n d  expects  t h a t such w i l l  imports  f o r these c o u n t r i e s .  possibility skilled  will  personnel  s i g n i f i c a n t l y minimize  Bank  the burden of o i l  However, t h e r e a l i z a t i o n  be s u b j e c t e d t o t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y  of t h i s  of c a p i t a l and  f o r v i g o r o u s o i l e x p l o r a t i o n and development  programs, and i n v o l v e s h i g h investment World  increases i n o i l  risks.  According to the  (1979a:37),  The r i s k s o f p e t r o l e u m e x p l o r a t i o n a r e h i g h . Only one i n e i g h t t o one i n t h i r t e e n e x p l o r a t o r y w e l l s a r e s u c c e s s f u l i n d i s c o v e r i n g a f i e l d , d e p e n d i n g on t h e a r e a ... an a r e a c a n go t h r o u g h two o r t h r e e p h a s e s o f e x p l o r a t o r y a c t i v i t y o v e r a p e r i o d o f 20 y e a r s w i t h o u t any c o m m e r c i a l a c c u m u l a t i o n o f o i l o r g a s b e i n g f o u n d . Unpredictable  ideological  shifts,  d e l a y s , demands f o r  k i c k b a c k s , and a g e n e r a l l a c k of i n f r a s t r u c t u r e and support s e r v i c e s c h a r a c t e r i z e t h e b u s i n e s s e n v i r o n m e n t o f a l a r g e number of  developing countries.  which  exist  Despite substantial opportunities  i n these c o u n t r i e s , the unfavourable  investment  34 climate discourages (1979a:15) c l a i m s  further exploration.  The  W o r l d Bank  that,  E x p l o r a t o r y a c t i v i t y f o r o i l and gas h a s been d e c l i n i n g in developing c o u n t r i e s i n recent y e a r s , d e s p i t e the e c o n o m i c a t t r a c t i o n o f d e v e l o p i n g new p r o d u c t i o n a t present p r i c e s . In p a r t t h i s i s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o p o l i t i c a l and e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s u n a t t r a c t i v e t o p r i v a t e c a p i t a l , which f o r m e r l y undertook the b u l k of e x p l o r a t o r y a c t i v i t y , and w h i c h h a v e c a u s e d a d e c l i n e i n p r i v a t e i n v e s t m e n t i n exploration. This d e c l i n e i n p r i v a t e investment i n p e t r o l e u m e x p l o r a t i o n h a s been l e f t u n c o m p e n s a t e d by p u b l i c i n v e s t m e n t , so t h a t i n many c a s e s o i l p r o d u c t i o n may s t a r t t o d e c l i n e w i t h i n t h e n e x t few y e a r s . M o r e o v e r , most d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s l a c k t h e necessary kerosene  t o break and  s y s t e m s and centres  down c r u d e  petrol.  o i l into usable products  Furthermore,  inefficient  infrastructure restrict  (Moss and M o r g a n , 1 9 8 1 ) .  t h e n a t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n and  the above  p r o d u c t s , may  For example, IIASA  circumstances,  lead to  rapid supply  of h i g h o i l p r i c e s i n (1981:31) n o t e s  ... e v e n w i t h v i g o r o u s c o n s e r v a t i o n m e a s u r e s i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d r e g i o n s , i n c r e a s i n g needs f o r l i q u i d f u e l s t h r o u g h o u t t h e w o r l d may, o v e r t h e next f i v e decades exceed the c a p a b i l i t i e s of the g l o b a l energy supply. On  as  few  s u p p l y d e c l i n e , combined w i t h  e v e n t u a l l y to a resurgence  the w o r l d o i l market.  such  distribution  supplies to a very  Given  i n c r e a s e s i n demands f o r p e t r o l e u m s h o r t a g e s and  refineries  t h e s u b j e c t of t h e p r e s e n t o i l g l u t , Morgan  that, '  (1983:71) remarks  that, ... on p r e s e n t e v i d e n c e t h e o i l g l u t may n o t l o n g and a g e n e r a l s i t u a t i o n o f s u p p l y b e i n g of demand seems l i k e l y o v e r t h e n e x t 30 - 40  2.1*2.2  Heavy O i l And  Tar  Sands  Heavy o i l i s a low q u a l i t y API.  Its viscosity  i s high.  last short years.  oil,  i n t h e r a n g e o f 10°  to  20°  35 Tar tar  s a n d s a r e an e x t r e m e t y p e o f h e a v y o i l .  sands r e f e r  t o sands or sand stones  In g e n e r a l ,  impregnated  w i t h heavy  immobile or h i g h l y v i s c o u s o i l which i s exposed a t the of the e a r t h or c o v e r e d 10°  API,  with specific  by o v e r b u r d e n .  g r a v i t y h e a v i e r than  G l o b a l d e p o s i t s o f h e a v y o i l and estimated at three t r i l l i o n Foley,  1981).  developing Of  total  located  They o c c u r  t a r sands are  f o r 72 p e r c e n t  i n OPEC c o u n t r i e s , w h i l e non-OPEC n e t  h e a v y o i l and  currently  Bank, 1 9 8 0 a ;  0.5  p e r c e n t , and percent.  percent  are  exporting  net o i l i m p o r t i n g  However, d e p o s i t s of  t a r sands i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d have not  been  evaluated. Only f i v e to ten percent  of t o t a l  r e s o u r c e s of heavy o i l  t a r sands i s e a s i l y a c c e s s i b l e from the s u r f a c e and,  r e c o v e r a b l e u s i n g methods w h i c h a r e c u r r e n t l y a v a i l a b l e 1981). 450  the  o f known d e p o s i t s .  d e p o s i t s i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , 99.2  for just  than  water.  i n a number o f c o u n t r i e s , w i t h  c o u n t r i e s a r e t h e s i t e o f 0.3  and  sands have l e s s  b a r r e l s of o i l (World  world accounting  c o u n t r i e s account  fully  Tar  surface  hence, (Foley,  T o t a l recoverable reserves are t h e r e f o r e estimated  billion  b a r r e l s of crude  o i l , a b o u t t h e same q u a n t i t y a s  known c o n v e n t i o n a l o i l r e s e r v e s W o r l d Bank,  i n the Middle  East  (Foley,  sands r e s e r v e s i s c u r r e n t l y to e x t r a c t .  restricted  A b o u t two  t o n n e s o f m a t e r i a l must  t e c h n i c a l demands a r e h i g h .  e s t i m a t e s t h a t o i l from these  tar  because the o i l i s  mined t o produce a b a r r e l of o i l ( F o l e y , 1981). c o s t s and  1981;  1980a).  H o w e v e r , c o m m e r c i a l e x p l o i t a t i o n o f h e a v y o i l and  difficult  at  The  Investment  W o r l d Bank  non-conventional  be  sources  (1980a) will  make  36 o n l y a s m a l l c o n t r i b u t i o n o f 200,000 b a r r e l s p e r d a y o f s u p p l y to the o i l importing developing the  countries i n the l a t t e r part of  1980s.  2.3  O i l Shale  Oil  shale  to f i n e grained solid  i s f o u n d i n many p a r t o f t h e w o r l d , a n d r e f e r s (or textured)  organic material c a l l e d  sedimentary  rocks containing the  k e r o g e n , w h i c h on h e a t i n g t o 300°C  t o 400°C d i s i n t e g r a t e s i n t o o i l o r g a s t h a t c a n be e x t r a c t e d . Oil  shale resources  are c l a s s i f i e d  o f o i l t h a t c a n be o b t a i n e d  i n t e r m s o f t h e amount  by h e a t i n g one t o n o f s h a l e .  Those  that y i e l d  25 t o 100 U.S. g a l l o n s o f o i l p e r t o n o f s h a l e a r e  considered  the richest  s h a l e s , f o l l o w e d by t h o s e  that y i e l d  t o 25 g a l l o n s p e r t o n , w i t h t h o s e  yielding  just  per  shales.  Estimates  ton being  the poorest  quality  recoverable o i l shale resources  which y i e l d  g a l l o n s p e r t o n o f s h a l e a r e 3264 b i l l i o n according  resource  of t o t a l U.S.  b a r r e l s of o i l .  w h i c h c a n be made f r o m a v a i l a b l e l i t e r a t u r e . p r o p o r t i o n of t h i s  5 t o 10 g a l l o n s  t e n o r more  t o t h e W o r l d Bank ( 1 9 8 0 a ) r e p r e s e n t s  10  the best  This, estimate  The l a r g e s t  i s i n t h e noncommunist  i n d u s t r i a l i z e d world, which accounts  f o r 68 p e r c e n t  o f known  resources. The d e v e l o p i n g  world accounts  f o r o n l y a b o u t 29 p e r c e n t  known w o r l d d e p o s i t s o f o i l s h a l e , a n d 89 p e r c e n t portion  i s found i n net o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g  C u r r e n t l y , no s u c h d e p o s i t s h a v e been i d e n t i f i e d c o u n t r i e s of the d e v e l o p i n g are  world.  The r e m a i n i n g  l o c a t e d i n non-OPEC n e t e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s .  of  of t h i s countries. i n OPEC eleven  percent  37 W h i l e t h e m a g n i t u d e o f known r e c o v e r a b l e resources  measured i n terms of c o n v e n t i o n a l o i l r e s o u r c e s  immense, t h e amount w h i c h i s e c o n o m i c a l l y s m a l l and world.  o i l shale  i s found p r i m a r i l y  As F o l e y  (1981:151)  is  e x p l o i t a b l e i s very  i n c o u n t r i e s of the  industrialized  notes,  I t i s now f e l t t h a t o n l y t h o s e o i l s h a l e s w i t h an o i l c o n t e n t a b o v e 25 g a l l o n s p e r t o n n e w i l l e v e r be economic. T h i s r e d u c e s the s i z e of the p o t e n t i a l r e s e r v e s by a f a c t o r o f a t h o u s a n d . At the 1978 W o r l d E n e r g y C o n f e r e n c e i t was e s t i m a t e d t h a t t h e r e c o v e r a b l e o i l f r o m t h e s e r e s o u r c e s was a b o u t 1500 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s - a b o u t 90 p e r c e n t o f i t i n t h e U.S. The t o t a l i s t h u s somewhat l e s s t h a n c o n v e n t i o n a l c r u d e o i l . And o f t h a t o n l y 5-10 p e r c e n t c a n "be c o n s i d e r e d f o r immediate e x p l o i t a t i o n " . On  t h i s b a s i s , current world  total  b e t w e e n 75  extraction exist.  t o 150  billion  and  b a r r e l s of o i l .  reserves  But o i l  p r o c e s s i n g expenses represent  the t o t a l c o s t of p r o d u c i n g  et  o i l shale  f r o m s h a l e on a c o m m e r c i a l b a s i s d o e s n o t c u r r e n t l y  Mining  constitute  recoverable  petroleum  a large part  of  f r o m s h a l e , and c u r r e n t l y  the major c o n s t r a i n t t o p r o d u c t i o n .  As  noted  by  Eden  a l . (1*981 :89) , The p r i n c i p a l o b s t a c l e s t o c o n v e n t i o n a l s u r f a c e r e t o r t i n g of s h a l e a r e i t s h i g h c o s t , the e n e r g y consumed, t h e c o n s u m p t i o n of water ( i n r e g i o n s w i t h water s c a r c i t y , . . . ) , and t h e d i s p o s a l o f w a s t e p r o d u c t s . In-situ c o m b u s t i o n w o u l d r e d u c e t h e p r o b l e m s o f w a t e r and w a s t e d i s p o s a l , b u t t h i s has n o t y e t been d e v e l o p e d s u f f i c i e n t l y f o r commercial o p e r a t i o n .  With p a r t i c u l a r Bank  reference  (1980a) p o i n t s out  intensive techniques a p p r o p r i a t e as Given production, that  to developing  c o u n t r i e s , the  t h a t the h i g h technology,  being  u s e d i n t h e U.S.  may  World  capital  not  be  models.  t h e m a g n i t u d e of o b s t a c l e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h o i l s h a l e i t i s not  s u r p r i s i n g that Foley  s h a l e o i l does not  (1981)  look at a l l promising  a s an  concludes energy  38 resource.  Hubbert  (1969)  that the organic contents more p r o m i s i n g i n d u s t r y than  o f c a r b o n a c e o u s s h a l e a p p e a r t o be  as a resource  o f raw m a t e r i a l f o r t h e c h e m i c a l  as a major source  Currently, the only p i l o t the d e v e l o p i n g  2.1.2.4  i s e v e n more p e s s i m i s t i c , c o n t e n d i n g  world  of i n d u s t r i a l  energy.  p l a n t f o r o i l e x t r a c t i o n from s h a l e i n  i s in Brazil.  N a t u r a l Gas  Estimates  of p o t e n t i a l n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s  h a v e c h a n g e d , a n d h a v e been b u i l d i n g up w i t h t i m e .  and r e s e r v e s As F o l e y  (1981:141) remarks, The e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e w o r l d ' s u l t i m a t e l y r e c o v e r a b l e r e s e r v e s o f n a t u r a l gas i s s u b j e c t t o even g r e a t e r u n c e r t a i n t i e s t h a n t h a t o f o i l . W h i l e numerous e s t i m a t e s h a v e been made o v e r t h e p a s t t w e n t y y e a r s no c l e a r c o n v e r g e n c e on a s i n g l e f i g u r e , a s i n t h e c a s e of o i l , i s apparent. The  W o r l d Bank  (1980a:27) c a u t i o n s t h a t ,  U n t i l r e c e n t l y g a s d i s c o v e r i e s o u t s i d e t h e U.S., W e s t e r n E u r o p e a n d t h e USSR h a v e n o t been f u l l y e v a l u a t e d , a n d t h e r e s e r v e e s t i m a t e s s h o u l d be t r e a t e d w i t h c a u t i o n . O v e r t h e p a s t 10 y e a r s a d d i t i o n s t o g a s r e s e r v e s h a v e been e q u i v a l e n t t o a d d i t i o n s t o o i l r e s e r v e s ( a b o u t 290 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s ) a n d on a v e r a g e t w i c e t h e l e v e l of gas consumption. A v a i l a b l e sources  i n d i c a t e t h a t n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s a r e  s u b s t a n t i a l , and t h a t t h e r e s e r v e s a r e growing. suggests  a f i g u r e o f a b o u t 340,000 b i l l i o n  is equivalent to estimates oil  of the world's  r e s e r v e s o f 2000 b i l l i o n  estimates  (1969)  cubic metres, which u l t i m a t e l y recoverable  b a r r e l s ( F o l e y , 1981).  from a v a r i e t y of sources  there c u r r e n t l y exist  Hubbert  Similar  i n d i c a t e an o p t i m i s m  that  l a r g e endowments o f n a t u r a l g a s i n t h e  w o r l d , w i t h g r o w i n g new d i s c o v e r i e s ( M c C o r m i c k e t a l . , W o r l d E n e r g y C o n f e r e n c e , 1978b; W o r l d Bank, 1 9 8 0 a ) .  1978;  As Hough  39 (1983a:293) p u t s i t , I t i s a p p a r e n t t h a t w o r l d gas r e s e r v e s h a v e been b u i l d i n g up i n r e c e n t y e a r s a t a r a t e t h a t o u t s t r i p s c o m m e r c i a l p r o d u c t i o n , and t h i s may r e m a i n t r u e f o r the f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e . Simple reserves to p r o d u c t i o n r a t i o s f o r gas ... and r e l a t i v e l y s t a t i c o r d w i n d l i n g o i l r e s e r v e s i n d i c a t e t h a t , w i t h the e x c e p t i o n of a number o f i m p o r t a n t i n d i v i d u a l c o u n t r i e s , t h e w o r l d ' s n a t u r a l gas o u g h t t o l a s t t w i c e a s l o n g a s i t s o i l . A b o u t 45 p e r c e n t n a t u r a l gas 76 p e r c e n t  are found  of c u r r e n t l y proven w o r l d i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d .  are concentrated  reserves Of  these  gas  o i l importing developing countries.  reserves exist  expected  about  i n OPEC c o u n t r i e s , 15 p e r c e n t  non-OPEC n e t o i l e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , and i n net  of  percent  S i n c e most p r o v e n  i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h crude  t h a t t h e l a r g e s t p o r t i o n o f gas  9  in  o i l reserves, i t i s  reserves w i l l  net o i l e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s of the d e v e l o p i n g  come f r o m  world.  N e v e r t h e l e s s , the m a j o r i t y of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , as w e l l as developed economically  c o u n t r i e s w h i c h a r e n o t endowed w i t h  e x p l o i t a b l e n a t u r a l gas  doubts t h a t they w i l l problems through concern gas  gas  out  be a b l e t o r e d u c e t h e i r d o m e s t i c imports.  The  i s that in contrast to o i l ,  which i s being u t i l i z e d  which i t i s produced.  resources, face s e r i o u s  foremost  for  most o f t h e w o r l d ' s  i s consumed by  Furthermore,  reason  energy their natural  the c o u n t r i e s i n  as F o l e y  (1981:143) p o i n t s  i n h i s d i s c u s s i o n of n a t u r a l gas, I t i s d i f f i c u l t t o t r a n s p o r t and d i s t r i b u t e . For l a r g e - s c a l e use i t r e q u i r e s a n e t w o r k o f u n d e r g r o u n d p i p e s c o n n e c t e d t o e v e r y c o n s u m e r . To e s t a b l i s h s u c h a s y s t e m f r o m s c r a t c h i s a l o n g and e x p e n s i v e u n d e r t a k i n g . I t c a n o n l y be j u s t i f i e d i f a c o u n t r y h a s i t s gas s u p p l i e s u n d e r i t s own c o n t r o l o r i s c o n f i d e n t of t h e g o o d w i l l and p o l i t i c a l s t a b i l i t y o f p o t e n t i a l s u p p l i e r s and t h e c o u n t r i e s t h r o u g h w h i c h s u p p l y p i p e l i n e s must pa s s.  T h e s e c o n s t r a i n t s t o t h e l a r g e s c a l e e x p o r t o f n a t u r a l gas  are  4 0 exacerbated world's  by t h e  t h a t the l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of  p r o v e n r e s e r v e s a r e l o c a t e d w i t h i n o n l y two  t h e U.S.S.R. and percent  fact  I r a n - which together account  of t o t a l proven w o r l d  reserves.  domestic  w i t h growing  exports.  Moreover, these c o u n t r i e s are l i k e l y  s u r p l u s e s t o a minimum. prospects  earn  to  There are other  f o r over  keep  supplies.  For  i s transport to export  assured  require high export  W o r l d Bank  c o n s t r a i n t s t o gas out  i n these  p r i c e s and  locations is markets.  s t a b l e markets,  (1980a:26) i d e n t i f i e s  proven  Siberia  on t o t h e c o n s u m e r s , and  r a t e s o f r e t u r n , i f d e v e l o p m e n t i s t o be  The  limit  instance in  i n a r e a s of Western  c o s t l y and  naturally  export  of the w o r l d ' s  Production  T h i s cost i s u l t i m a t e l y passed  limit  limit  which are h a r d l y a c c e s s i b l e . time consuming, as  to  f a c t o r s which  39 p e r c e n t  r e s e r v e s , most o f t h e d e p o s i t s a r e  52  them income w h i c h i s o n l y  d e v e l o p m e n t n e e d s , and  f o r l a r g e i n t e r n a t i o n a l gas  Russia, which accounts  f o r about  demand w h i c h i s l i k e l y  p r o d u c t i o n to l e v e l s which w i l l own  countries -  These c o u n t r i e s a r e  populous,  enough t o s e r v e t h e i r  the  will or  justified.  some o f  the  development i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , p o i n t i n g  that, Gas d e v e l o p m e n t f o r d o m e s t i c use i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s has a l s o been l i m i t e d b e c a u s e m a r k e t s h a v e r a r e l y been s u f f i c i e n t l y l a r g e and c o n c e n t r a t e d t o a b s o r b t h e h i g h c o s t o f p i p e l i n e s and d i s t r i b u t i o n f a c i l i t i e s and h e n c e make gas c o m p e t i t i v e w i t h o i l p r o d u c t s ( m a i n l y f u e l o i l ) . T h e r e f o r e , where no r e a d y l o c a l m a r k e t e x i s t e d , a s s o c i a t e d gas h a s u s u a l l y been f l a r e d and n o n a s s o c i a t e d gas d i s c o v e r i e s h a v e n o t been d e v e l o p e d . Eden e t a l . ( 1 9 8 1 : 9 4 - 9 5 ) p r o v i d e a c o m p r e h e n s i v e summary  and  e v a l u a t i o n of t h e p o l i c y  p r o d u c e n a t u r a l gas According  to these  o p t i o n s open t o c o u n t r i e s w h i c h  b u t w h i c h do n o t authors,  have l a r g e d o m e s t i c  demand.  41 E x p o r t by p i p e l i n e may be f e a s i b l e , a s w i t h I r a n t o t h e USSR a n d h e n c e t o E a s t e r n o r W e s t e r n E u r o p e , o r M e x i c o t o t h e US. LNG t r a d e c o u l d be d e v e l o p e d , t h o u g h payments t o p r o d u c e r s a r e s e v e r e l y reduced from t h e d e l i v e r e d p r i c e o f g a s by t h e h i g h t r a n s p o r t c o s t s . A l o c a l consumer n e t w o r k c o u l d be b u i l t u p , t h o u g h i n a developing country with large reserves i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t t h i s c o u l d take a major share of t h e p o t e n t i a l supply. The g a s c o u l d be u s e d t o d e v e l o p a l o c a l c h e m i c a l s and p e t r o c h e m i c a l s i n d u s t r y , f o r export of f e r t i l i z e r s and " i n t e r m e d i a t e s " f o r f u r t h e r use i n petrochemicals. T h i s w o u l d d e p e n d on w h e t h e r t h e c o s t a d v a n t a g e on f e e d s t o c k s w o u l d be s u f f i c i e n t f o r a n e w l y d e v e l o p e d i n d u s t r y t o compete w i t h t h e h i g h l y e f f i c i e n t p e t r o c h e m i c a l s companies i n developed countries. The c o s t d i s a d v a n t a g e s i n t r a n s p o r t i n g g a s means t h a t n a t u r a l g a s i n a p r o d u c i n g c o u n t r y provides the cheapest f u e l f o r e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n . I f a gas f i e l d i s r e m o t e f r o m p o s s i b l e c o n s u m e r s i t may be d e s i r a b l e t o u s e t h e g a s t o g e n e r a t e e l e c t r i c i t y where t h e g a s i s c o - p r o d u c e d w i t h o i l a n d w o u l d o t h e r w i s e be flared. A m a j o r p o s s i b i l i t y i n t h e medium- t o l o n g - t e r m f u t u r e i s the conversion t o methanol f o r s h i p p i n g t o consumer c o u n t r i e s f o r u s e i n t r a n s p o r t , ... With the exception generation  of e l e c t r i c i t y ,  gestation periods lengthy  of the o p t i o n  t o use n a t u r a l gas f o r t h e  these suggestions require  or lead times.  time required  consumers o r a c r o s s  F o r example, there  for construction  frontiers.  that a l l of these options  In a d d i t i o n , i t i s uncertain  could  be o p e r a t i o n a l , due t o  F o r e x a m p l e , an LNG e x p o r t p r o j e c t w o u l d  f i n a n c e , customers, and p o l i t i c a l  f a c t o r s which might  priority  I t i s therefore  that  over economic prudence.  t h e W o r l d Bank  countries  (1980a) r e p o r t s  that are e x p l o i t i n g  isa  of p i p e l i n e s t o domestic  c i r c u m s t a n c e s beyond t h e c o n t r o l of t h e gas p r o d u c i n g countries.  long  their  i s m a i n l y u s e d f o r power g e n e r a t i o n  that  i n those  developing involve take  not s u r p r i s i n g developing  n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s ,  gas  and i n d u s t r y which can  a b s o r b a l a r g e enough v o l u m e o f g a s t o j u s t i f y  the construction  of a p i p e l i n e . Governments of c o u n t r i e s  which produce n a t u r a l gas i n t h e  42 d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d a r e becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y c o n s c i o u s of enormous w a s t e o f t h e i r a s s o c i a t e d g a s .  T h i s , c o u p l e d w i t h an  i n c r e a s i n g a w a r e n e s s o f t h e r e v e n u e w h i c h c o u l d be t h r o u g h p r o d u c t i o n of n a t u r a l gas, has caused towards  c u r b i n g such  a s t h e demand f r o m international  irreversible  losses.  earned  s t e p s t o be  N e v e r t h e l e s s , as  investors w i l l  be r e l u c t a n t t o d e v e l o p n a t u r a l  gas  countries.  i s c l a s s i f i e d according to i t s p r o p e r t i e s which,  turn, are determined of c o a l i f i c a t i o n  by t h e c o n d i t i o n s u n d e r w h i c h  o c c u r r e d beneath  m i l d c o n d i t i o n s o f h e a t and  the e a r t h .  the  Under  These a r e r e g a r d e d as the  r a n k e d c o a l s (Eden e t a l . ,  1981).  in  process  relatively  pressure, sub-bituminous,  l i g n i t e c o a l s a r e formed.  brown  and  lowest  These t y p e s of c o a l c o n t a i n  up t o 70 p e r c e n t m o i s t u r e , l e s s t h a n 69 p e r c e n t c a r b o n ; disintegrate  rapidly  when e x p o s e d  d u r i n g m i n i n g , and a r e of low c a l o r i f i c  i n a i r , are l i a b l e  to i g n i t e  they  spontaneously value  1981).  At h i g h e r temperatures  and  pressures are bituminous  w h i c h c o n t a i n a b o u t 69-86 p e r c e n t c a r b o n The  long  Coal  Coal  (Foley,  taken  i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s i s low,  resources in developing  2.1.2.5  the  and  5 percent  coals,  hydrogen.  h i g h e s t ranked c o a l s a r e formed under v e r y h i g h  temperatures,  and  are c a l l e d a n t h r a c i t e s .  Anthracite coal  c o n t a i n s a s much a s 98 p e r c e n t c a r b o n , w i t h 2 o r 3 p e r c e n t hydrogen, The  t o g e t h e r w i t h oxygen, v o l a t i l e matter  and  impurities.  c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s o f c o a l a r e s u m m a r i z e d i n T a b l e 2.8.  important  factors  i n the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n  of c o a l  Other  i n c l u d e the  43  TABLE 2.8 C L A S S I F I C A T I O N OF COAL BY RANK  Rank  Class  Anthracite  Bituminous  Group  SOME PROPERTIES Carbon Content Thermal Heat ( i n %) Content (in Gigajoules per tonne)  Highest Quality  -MetaAnthrac i t e -Anthrac i t e -Semi Anthrac i t e  9 8 % o r more  Highest Quality  -Low Volatility -Medium Volatility -High Volatility  78 t o 86  92 t o 98 86 t o 92 20 t o 30  69 t o 78 L e s s t h a n 69  SubBituminous  Poor Quality  -Grade A -Grade B -Grade C  L e s s t h a n 69  Lignite  Poor Quality  -Brown C o a l -Lignite  L e s s t h a n 50  Source:  30 t o 34  9 t o 14  9 t o 14  Eden e t a l . , 1 9 8 1 . E n e r g y E c o n o m i c s , G r o w t h , R e s o u r c e s And P o l i c i e s . Cambridge: Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , p. 102. H e a t C o n t e n t P r o p e r t i e s were d e r i v e d f r o m t h e text.  44 c o k i n g q u a l i t i e s of m e t a l l u r g i c a l c o a l , which r e l a t e s t o the mechanical  s t r e n g t h of the coke,  t h e a s h c o n t e n t , and t h e  sulphur content, which r e l a t e s t o p o l l u t i o n The difficult  problems.  q u a l i t i e s of c o a l v a r y and o v e r l a p , making i t to classify different  uniform c r i t e r i a .  types of c o a l a c c o r d i n g t o  N e v e r t h e l e s s , on t h e b a s i s o f s u r v e y s  out  by t h e W o r l d E n e r g y C o n f e r e n c e  and  r e s e r v e s c a n be d i v i d e d i n t o two main c a t e g o r i e s - h a r d  coal  and  brown c o a l - on t h e b a s i s o f h e a t  and  seam t h i c k n e s s . coal  (WEC, 1 9 7 8 a ) , c o a l  carried  content, depth  This i s demonstrated i n Table  r e s o u r c e s a r e e s t i m a t e d a t 10125 b i l l i o n  billion 1981;  This estimate  than e s t i m a t e d  2.9.  Potential  tonnes,  o r 50281  resources  i s about t w e n t y - f i v e  i n the world.  t i m e s more t h a n  Seventy-six percent  r e s o u r c e s a r e hard c o a l , and t w e n t y - f o u r Although geological  total  i s concentrated  percent  As a g r o u p , d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s p o s s e s s  percent  of world  o f 21 p e r c e n t  coal  of t o t a l world  o f brown c o a l ( W o r l d  resources  Developing  12 p e r c e n t  Similarly,  their  o n l y a b o u t 16  countries are the s i t e  Bank, 1979a; WEC,  1978b).  0.4 p e r c e n t  Of  total  are located  i n non-OPEC n e t o i l e x p o r t i n g  d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s (0.4 p e r c e n t and  large,  coal.  r e s e r v e s of hard c o a l , and about 1  i n the developing world,  i n OPEC c o u n t r i e s , 88 p e r c e n t  a r e brown  outside the developing  world.  resources.  n a t u r a l gas  of w o r l d c o a l  p o t e n t i a l c o a l resources are very  location  times  recoverable conventional world o i l  r e s o u r c e s , and t w e n t y - e i g h t  percent  limit,  boe (WEC, 1978b; W o r l d Bank, 1 9 7 9 a , 1 9 8 0 a ; Eden e t a l . ,  F o l e y , 1981).  larger  resources  excluding resources  i n China),  i n net o i l importing developing c o u n t r i e s .  the l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of high q u a l i t y , hard  coal  TABLE 2.9  COAL C L A S S I F I C A T I O N  Class  BY WORLD ENERGY CONFERENCE, 1978  CLASSIFICATION CRITERIA Energy Content Depth L i m i t Minimum Sean ( i n GJ/per tonne) ( i n metres) Thickness on a s h f r e e b a s i s ( i n metres)  Group  Hard Coal  Anthricite and Bituminous  23.8 o r more  Brown Coal  SubBituminous and Lignite  Below  Derived from:  23.8  1,500  0.6  600  0.6  Eden e t a l . , 1 9 8 1 . E n e r g y E c o n o m i c s , G r o w t h , R e s o u r c e s , And P o l i c i e s . Cambridge: Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , p . 103.  46 resources  i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s i n non-OPEC n e t o i l  e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , as i s the l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of brown c o a l  resources.  World c o a l r e s e r v e s , which are e x p l o i t a b l e a t c u r r e n t p r i c e s w i t h a v a i l a b l e t e c h n o l o g i e s , a r e e s t i m a t e d a t 636 tonnes,  o r 3158 b i l l i o n  f i v e times  boe ( W o r l d  Bank, 1 9 8 0 a ) .  T h i s amount i s  t h a t of c o n v e n t i o n a l o i l r e s e r v e s , and n e a r l y 6  percent  of p o t e n t i a l c o a l r e s o u r c e s .  account  f o r o n l y a b o u t 25 p e r c e n t  although developed possess  billion  Developing  of world  countries  r e s e r v e s , but  c o u n t r i e s and c e n t r a l l y planned  economies  d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y h i g h q u a n t i t i e s of world c o a l  reserves which are c u r r e n t l y  recoverable, sources  additional  r e s o u r c e s and r e s e r v e s a r e l i k e l y  developing  countries.  Dunkerley  indicate  t o come  that  from  e t a l . (1981b:26) note  that,  T h e r e h a s been r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e e x p l o r a t i o n f o r c o a l i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , so i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t c o n s i d e r a b l y more e x t e n s i v e c o a l r e s e r v e s w i l l be discovered. P r i o r t o t h e o i l p r i c e r i s e o f 1973, t h e r e was l i t t l e i n t e r e s t i n c o a l e x p l o r a t i o n among d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y g o v e r n m e n t s , w h i c h c o n c e n t r a t e d on e x p l o r i n g f o r more v a l u a b l e r e s o u r c e s s u c h a s c o p p e r a n d i r o n o r e , o r among i n t e r n a t i o n a l m i n i n g c o m p a n i e s , due t o l a g g i n g demand a n d t h e e x i s t e n c e o f a b u n d a n t c o a l r e s o u r c e s i n the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . R e c e n t l y , d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s h a v e r e c l a s s i f i e d much o f t h e i r c o a l r e s o u r c e b a s e , b u t r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e new c o a l e x p l o r a t i o n h a s begun. A m a j o r i s s u e o f d e b a t e h a s been t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f s u b s t i t u t i n g c o a l f o r h i g h c o s t o i l , due t o d e c l i n i n g o i l reserves  (Griffith  et a l . ,  1979; D u n k e r l e y  major c o n s t r a i n t i s the h i g h investment Dunkerley  e t a l . (1981b),  is high  cost  f o r example, note  a slow development of c o a l r e s o u r c e s  et a l . ,  1981b).  requirements. t h a t one r e a s o n f o r  i n the developing  i n f r a s t r u c t u r e costs f o r mining  A  world  and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n of  47 coal.  I f coal  i s t o s e r v e a s an e n e r g y o p t i o n  o f d e p e n d e n c e on o i l i m p o r t s ,  governments of  f o r the reduction developing  c o u n t r i e s must s o o n embark on p o l i c i e s n e c e s s a r y f o r e x p a n s i o n of c o a l u t i l i z a t i o n .  Incentives  investment are required  f o r p u b l i c and p r i v a t e  t o provide  funds f o r e x p l o i t a t i o n ,  opening, and development of mines, c o n s t r u c t i o n of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n systems, p r o v i s i o n of t h e r e q u i r e d s t r u c t u r e , and perhaps, s e e k i n g problems a s s o c i a t e d in coal production greatest  with  solutions to environmental  t h e m i n i n g and b u r n i n g  i n the developing  i n countries  infra-  world  that are already  of c o a l .  i s likely  Growth  t o be  large producers, p a r t l y  because t h e y have d e v e l o p e d mines and t h e n e c e s s a r y  infra-  structure .  2_.1_.2_.6_  H y d r o e l e c t r i c Resource P o t e n t i a l  D a t a c o n c e r n i n g h y d r o e l e c t r i c power p o t e n t i a l f o r most countries  of the world,  a n d t h o s e most o f t e n c i t e d i n  contemporary l i t e r a t u r e , early  a r e b a s e d on e s t i m a t e s  1970s by t h e W o r l d E n e r g y C o n f e r e n c e  source, which provides  t h e most r e l i a b l e  c u r r e n t l y a v a i l a b l e , estimates hydroelectric capacity  information  foreseeable  This  that i s  the world's t h e o r e t i c a l  i s located  i n the developing  D u n k e r l e y e t a l . (1981b) a s s e r t  amount o f p o t e n t i a l h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y s t i l l some d e v e l o p i n g  (WEC, 1 9 7 4 ) .  t o be a b o u t 2343 t h o u s a n d m e g a w a t t s .  t h i s , a p p r o x i m a t e l y 51 p e r c e n t communist c o u n t r i e s .  made i n t h e  nations  i s very  p r o j e c t i o n of l o c a l  I n many d e v e l o p i n g  non-  that the  available i n at least  l a r g e compared t o any need.  countries  Of  the p o t e n t i a l f o r  48 h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y production extent. supply  Exploring prospects i n developing  h a s o n l y been d e v e l o p e d t o a s m a l l f o r increased h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y  c o u n t r i e s , t h e W o r l d Bank  (1979a:47) n o t e s  that, The p o t e n t i a l f o r i n c r e a s i n g h y d r o p o w e r o u t p u t i n many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s c o n s i d e r a b l e . F o r e x a m p l e , A f r i c a i s e s t i m a t e d t o have 2 2 % o f w o r l d h y d r o p o w e r r e s o u r c e s , b u t o n l y 2% o f t h i s h a s been developed. One p r o b l e m i s t h a t many s i t e s h a v e a p o t e n t i a l f a r i n e x c e s s o f a n y l o c a l m a r k e t demand f o r the e n e r g y , so t h a t t h e c o s t p e r u n i t o f e n e r g y d e l i v e r e d becomes p r o h i b i t i v e l y h i g h . One s o l u t i o n t o t h i s problem i s t o l o c a t e energy-intensive i n d u s t r i e s , s u c h a s a l u m i n i u m s m e l t e r s , n e a r t h e h y d r o s i t e , a s was done w i t h t h e V o l t a R i v e r d e v e l o p m e n t scheme i n Ghana. A n o t h e r i s t o a r r a n g e t o e x p o r t t h e power t o n e i g h b o r i n g c o u n t r i e s where demand i s g r e a t e r , a s was done i n t h e c a s e o f Uganda a n d K e n y a . On t h e p r o s p e c t s  of h y d r o e l e c t i c i t y c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o t h e  energy needs of t h e d e v e l o p i n g (1979:181) a s s e r t  countries, Siddiqi  and Hein  that,  Many c o u n t r i e s a l r e a d y o b t a i n a s i g n i f i c a n t p o r t i o n of t h e i r t o t a l energy from hydropower; f o r s e v e r a l o f them, t h e p o t e n t i a l e x i s t s f o r m e e t i n g a l l t h e i r e s t i m a t e d 1990 demand f r o m t h i s e n e r g y s o u r c e a l o n e . F r e q u e n t l y t h o u g h , t h e optimum l o c a t i o n f o r h y d r o p o w e r s i t e s i s i n remote a r e a s d i f f i c u l t o f a c c e s s and f a r f r o m t h e c e n t r e s o f demand. A l s o , i n s e v e r a l c o u n t r i e s w h i c h have a d e q u a t e p o t e n t i a l f o r h y d r o p o w e r p l a n s f o r t a p p i n g i t do n o t y e t e x i s t , m a k i n g i t u n l i k e l y that t h i s source of energy w i l l o f f e r a s u b s t a n t i a l c o n t r i b u t i o n by 1 9 9 0 . It  seems t h a t e v e n t h o u g h a b o u t h a l f o f t h e w o r l d ' s h y d r o p o w e r  potential  i s i n the developing  c o u n t r i e s , and t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r  i n c r e a s i n g h y d r o p o w e r o u t p u t i n many d e v e l o p i n g considerable,  countries i s  t h e push towards development o f hydropower f o r  many c o u n t r i e s may r a i s e s u c h f a m i l i a r p r o b l e m s a s l a c k o f investment c a p i t a l , operating concerning  s m a l l and i s o l a t e d  l o c a l demands t h a t  raise  and maintenance c o s t s , and t h e l a c k of i n f o r m a t i o n the resource  base.  49  2..1«2.2  Nuclear  Nuclear  Energy  e n e r g y i s t h e most r e c e n t l y d e v e l o p e d  the commercial sources share  of energy i n the w o r l d .  o f w o r l d power p r o d u c t i o n has  1957  to around nine percent  Bulletin,  1982).  s t a t i o n s has twenty-four scheduled  The  t h e end  i n two  Nuclear  1982  few  Table  2.10  During  f o r j u s t one  1981  percent  w o r l d p r o d u c t i o n o f a b o u t 798  developed  shows  the  of t o t a l  restricted  w o r l d net  billion  kwh.  i n c r e a s e i n p r o d u c t i o n over  c o u n t r i e s , and  power to a  d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s as a whole  c a p a c i t y o f n u c l e a r g e n e r a t i n g p l a n t s , and  than a s i x f o l d  in  of w o r l d n u c l e a r c a p a c i t y .  r o l e of n u c l e a r energy i n the e l e c t r i c  accounted  generating  c o u n t r i e s t o a b o u t 277  countries within this period.  countries.  in  (OPEC  electricity  g e n e r a t i o n o f d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s s m a l l and very  energy's  from zero p e r c e n t  of J u l y  number o f a t o m i c  grown f r o m t h r e e  expansion  The  by  risen  of a l l of  a ninefold  installed  a b o u t two  percent  of  T h i s r e p r e s e n t s more 1970  f o r the  increase for developing  countries. S e v e r a l e x p l a n a t i o n s h a v e been o f f e r e d f o r t h e low et  r o l e of n u c l e a r energy al.,  in developing countries  1981b; Moss and M o r g a n , 1981;  Bank, 1979a, 1980a).  Eden e t a l . ,  relatively (Dunkerley  1981;  I n c l u d e d among t h e s e e x p l a n a t i o n s i s t h e  a r g u m e n t t h a t most d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s l a c k e l e c t r i c i t y l a r g e e n o u g h and justify large  t h e use  financial  sufficiently  well  integrated to  resources are necessary  the a p p r o p r i a t e s c i e n t i f i c  and  markets  economically  of even the s m a l l e s t r e a c t o r u n i t s .  a system f o r g e n e r a t i o n of e l e c t r i c i t y and  World  Similarly,  t o e s t a b l i s h and b a s e d on n u c l e a r  operate fuels,  engineering s k i l l s are a l s o  50 TABLE Scheduled Capacity  2.10  Expansion  ( GW ( e ) e n d -  in  of  year  Developed Market  at  the  )  1 990  1 985  1982  Country  Nuclear  Operation  Countries:  Economies  Belguim  3. 5  5. 5  5. 5  Canada  7. 3  1 1 .1  14. 5  Finland F ranee Germany,  West  2. 2  2. 2  2. 2  2 3 . li  44 . 2  54. 8  -  76.7  9. 8  1 6 . li  23. 0  -  26.8  Italy  1 .2  1 .3  3. 2  Japan  16. 6  24 . 7  26. 8  Netherlands  0. 5  0. S  0 . .5  Spain  2. 0  6. 5  12. 1  Sweden  7. 3  9 . li  9 ., 4  Swizerland  1 .9  2 . ,9  United  6. 5  1 0 ., 1  Kingdom  -  31  .7  -  13.1  2.,9 1 2 ..5  1 ,. 8  1 ,. 8  6 2 . ,4 1 4 4 ., 6  9 4 ., 3 2 3 0 ..9  119,.0 288 .2  -  310.8  Czechoslovakia  0,,8  3 .. 3  4 .1  -  7.9  Germany.  1 ,, 7  1 .7  1 .7  0 , .it  1 .2  1 .6  -•  0 .4  -  1.8  South  A f r i c a  United Sub  -  --  States t o t a l  C e n t r a l l y  Planned  Economies.  East.  Hungary Poland  -•  USSR. Sub  -  Total  47 .7  273 .8  343 .7  --  0.6  0.6  --  0,.6  20  total Developed  .2  36 . 7 42 . 9  17  .i  164 .9  68.8 - 8 1 . 8  55 . 5  -392.6  Countries Developing  Countries:  Net - Oil Exporting Countries. Mexico  Sub  -  t o t a l  N e t - o i l  -  0,.6  1.3  -- 1 . 3  Importing  Developing  C o u n t r i e s .  Argentian  0.3  0,.9  1 .6  B r a z i l  0.6  0,. 6  1 .. 9  -•  Bulgaria  1 .6  2.. 6  3,. 5  ••  4.5  Cuba  --  -•  0 .li  •-  0.B  0.8  1 ,. 2  1 ,, 5  •- 1 . 7  1 . 2  5,. 5  6,.5  •-  0.1  0 .. 1  0 .. 1  P h i l i p p i n e s  --  0 .. 6  0 .. 6  Roman i a  --  -•  0 ,. 7  Taiwan  3.1  4 .. 9  4 ,. 9  Yugoslavia  0.6  0 ..6  0 ..6  Sub-total  8.3  1 7 ..0  2 2 ..3  --  2 2 ., 9  -•  27.9  •  420.  India Korea,  Rep.  Pakistan  Total  7.4  •- 1 . 3  26.6  Developing  Countries World  3.1  Total  1 7 .,6 17.3.2  Source:  2 9 1 .. 4  Baun,  V.  Important energy. Economist.  367  1984. factor  in  Petroleum January,  World  51  difficult  to  obtain.  concern  about  nuclear  technology  plant and  Further,  nuclear and  fuels.  associated  with  to  nuclear  plant  installation  years.  Factors that  appropriate urban  increased  such  as  nuclear  substitute  populations  (1982:75-76),  in  on  usage  the  the  transportation  serve  as  of  nuclear a  lead  led  power. time  Moss  i s almost resource  hand,  disposal, radiation,  developing  other  waste  to  level  have  energy  access  low  requires  these  with  accidents,  fuel  energy  limiting  Problems  possible  disincentives  conclude  i n d u s t r i a l i z e d world's  proliferation is  discommissioning,  hazards  the  Finally,  of  and  about  Morgan  certainly  the  to  either  supply  world.  states  The  further  ten  (1981)  to  least rural  or  OPEC B u l l e t i n  that,  By t h e y e a r 2 0 0 0 , c u r r e n t IAEA e s t i m a t e s s a y , between 80,000 and 1 5 5 , 0 0 0 MWE of n u c l e a r c a p a c i t y will p r o v i d e f o r about seven p e r c e n t of t o t a l electricity generation i n the T h i r d World. Dunkerley the  expected  countries  concern  as  being  provide Bank  of  technology, factors,  fuel  future In  world's  nuclear  the  fuel  repercussions, slow  security  of  identify factors  nuclear  result  costs  financing.  (1980a),  (1981b) in  the  rising  for  willingness  a l .  increase  electricity, a  et  of  of  in  increasing  demand  vendors  energy  in  the  Nevertheless, high  cost  of  availability,  safety, and  on  supplies,  fuel  pointed a  the  problem  o i l to  meet  and  the  by  new  and  reducing  the  to  World  complex  environmental  political factors  developing  of  facilities,  out  recycling,  a c c e p t a b i l i t y are in  for  i n d u s t r i a l i z e d world  introducing  development  conclusion,  as  to  developing  generating  national/international  public  nuclear  dependence  production  alternative  future  contributing  likely  countries. the  developing  its nontraditional  energy  to  52  needs a r i s e s from d i f f i c u l t i e s there  are  share of  these  technical, the  options  social,  and  and  resources  economic  T r a d i t i o n a l E n e r g y And Developing Countries Traditional  firewood,  stages  there  was  a shift  developing  Traditional  generates  of  fuels, particularly  dung.  firewood,  This  situation  leads  convenient,  Morgan,  continue  i s an  important  t h e FAO  growth  population  to  energy needs i n these  Moreover, firewood  as  During  tremendous urban  (Moss and  such  countries  1981).  serve rural  fuel  a l a r g e p a r t of the urban p o p u l a t i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y poor.  resolved i f  fuel,  v a s t m a j o r i t y of t h e i r  industrial  interconnected  f u e l s t o t h e more  However, d e s p i t e  countries,  In  industrialized  located i n r u r a l areas  m a j o r h o u s e h o l d and  animal  a  improve.  Supply C o n s t r a i n t s  r e s i d u e s , and  c o u n t r i e s , the  communities.  in developing  p o s i t i o n i s to  from t r a d i t i o n a l  types.  t o be  t o use  While  o p t i o n s , and  i s s u e s w h i c h must be  of development i n the  nontraditional  continues  substitution.  energy i n c l u d e s d i v e r s e types  charcoal, crop  early  in  the world's d e p o s i t s  n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy supply  2.1.3  interfuel  d i v e r s e n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy resource  substantial putting  of  source  the  for  urban  (1983:8) t o c o n c l u d e  that,  The t r a n s i t i o n f r o m t r a d i t i o n a l t o c o m m e r c i a l f u e l s , common t o t h e h i s t o r y o f i n d u s t r i a l d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e d e v e l o p e d w o r l d , w i l l i n a l l l i k e l i h o o d n o t o c c u r i n many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i n the f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e . Rather, recent  estimates  three-quarters  of the p o p u l a t i o n  2000 m i l l i o n  people,  e n e r g y n e e d s , and a b o u t 3000 m i l l i o n  by FAO  d e p e n d on  suggest that  approximately  of d e v e l o p i n g  traditional  f u e l s f o r domestic  p r e d i c t t h a t t h i s number w i l l by  t h e y e a r 2000 (FAO,  c o u n t r i e s , or  increase  1981a,.1983).  to  53  Traditional  fuels, particularly  l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of t o t a l world.  The  fuelwood,  e n e r g y use  W o r l d Bank ( 1 9 8 0 a : 3 8 ) n o t e s  account  for  i n most o f t h e  the developing  that,  In poorer c o u n t r i e s [ n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy] sources supply o n e - h a l f t o t h r e e - q u a r t e r s of the t o t a l energy u s e d ; t h e p r o p o r t i o n v a r i e s f r o m 50-65 p e r c e n t i n A s i a t o 70-90 p e r c e n t i n A f r i c a . The  W o r l d Bank ( 1 9 8 0 a ) e s t i m a t e s t h a t t r a d i t i o n a l  account  for roughly  20-25 p e r c e n t  d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , and  fuels  may  of t h e e n e r g y consumed i n t h e  s t a t e s t h a t i f a l l households i n the  d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d w h i c h now  use  traditional  f u e l s were t o s w i t c h  to kerosene,  t h e s e c o u n t r i e s ' demand f o r o i l w o u l d r i s e by  15  20 p e r c e n t .  There are c u r r e n t l y  in  fuelwood  supply  shortages  many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , w i t h f a r - r e a c h i n g c o n s e q u e n c e s . and  Knowland  (1981:45) note  Smil  that,  The p h y s i c a l s h o r t a g e s o f f i r e w o o d i n c o u n t l e s s v i l l a g e s o f t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , and e x o r b i t a n t p r i c e s charged f o r i t i n the c i t i e s , are d i r e c t l y a f f e c t i n g v a s t l y l a r g e r numbers o f p e o p l e t h a n d o e s m u l t i p l i c a t i o n of i m p o r t e d c r u d e c o s t s . Similarly,  t h e W o r l d Bank ( 1 9 8 0 a : 3 8 ) r e p o r t s t h a t ,  The demand f o r f u e l w o o d , t h e most i m p o r t a n t s o u r c e of t r a d i t i o n a l energy f o r r e s i d e n t i a l u s e s , i n c l u d i n g c o o k i n g , h a s grown f a r f a s t e r t h a n s u p p l y . Whereas v i l l a g e s o n c e c o u l d u s u a l l y f i n d enough f u e l w o o d n e a r t h e i r homes, many now must s e a r c h f o r i t h a l f a d a y ' s w a l k o r more away, and t h e u r b a n p o o r must s p e n d l a r g e p o r t i o n s o f t h e i r i n c o m e s on f u e l . Many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s are t h e r e f o r e f a c i n g a second energy c r i s i s which a f f e c t s p a r t i c u l a r l y the r u r a l s e c t o r s of t h e i r economies. To  t h i s end,  t h e FAO  (1983:1) e s t i m a t e s t h a t ,  ... o v e r a l l p e r h a p s 100 m i l l i o n p e o p l e a l r e a d y h a v e t o l i v e w i t h a s h o r t a g e o f f u e l f o r c o o k i n g and o t h e r b a s i c purposes. P r o b a b l y a f u r t h e r 1000 m i l l i o n a r e l i v i n g i n s i t u a t i o n s where f u e l s u p p l i e s a r e b e i n g m a i n t a i n e d o n l y by d e s t r u c t i o n o f t h e woody v e g e t a t i o n , so t h a t the i n c i d e n c e of s h o r t a g e s i s growing r a p i d l y . The  apalling  suffering  i n the Sahel  r e g i o n of A f r i c a  is a  to  well  54 known e x a m p l e . to  l o s s of f o r e s t s  d e s e r t e n c r o a c h m e n t , has  food  left  i n t h i s a r e a , w h i c h has  people  2.11  illustrates  t h e W o r l d Bank.  striking  the  fuelwood  fuelwood  nor  f e a t u r e of the t a b l e i s t h a t i t i s t h o s e  category;  t h r e e of the s i x t y - s i x  have a c t u a l or p o t e n t i a l a r e non-OPEC n e t  are net  FAO  world  have  countries  o i l which f a l l  c o u n t r i e s which are  fuelwood  into  this  perceived  p r o b l e m s a r e OPEC members,  o i l e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s , and  o i l importing developing  encompass 57 p e r c e n t  depicted  p r o b l e m s , b u t p e r h a p s t h e most  w h i c h a r e most d e p e n d e n t upon i m p o r t e d  six  s i t u a t i o n as  Many c o u n t r i e s i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g  a c t u a l or p o t e n t i a l  to  with neither fuel  led  ( F o l e y , 1981). Table  by  The  countries.  fifty-seven  These c o u n t r i e s  of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d .  According  to  the  (1981a:6), In t h e whole d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , fuelwood d e f i c i t s a f f e c t r o u g h l y 1150 m i l l i o n p e o p l e f o r an a p p r o x i m a t e amount o f 400 m i l l i o n m , b u t t h e s i t u a t i o n i s o f s p e c i a l g r a v i t y i n A f r i c a and e v e n more so i n A s i a . 3  F u r t h e r d e s c r i p t i o n of the c o u n t r i e s a s p r o v i d e d by table  fuelwood  t h e FAO  situation  in developing  i s shown i n T a b l e  2.12.  This  i n d i c a t e s t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n a f f e c t e d by d i m i n i s h i n g  fuelwood  s u p p l i e s , as w e l l as  rural population affected.  V a r i o u s e x p l a n a t i o n s h a v e been o f f e r e d f o r t h e crisis.  One  source  s t a t e s t h a t the f r i g h t e n i n g  p o p u l a t i o n growth i n the d e v e l o p i n g world d e p l e t i o n of f o r e s t s f a s t e r This viewpoint  is linked  e n t i t l e d An_ E s s a y  than  r a t e of  i s leading to  replenishment  i n c r e a s e f a s t e r than  the  i s occurring.  t o t h e e a r l y work o f Thomas  i n t h e P r i n c i p l e P o p u l a t i o n , 1789.  m a j o r theme i s f a m i n e and  firewood  Malthus, While  the  a strong tendency f o r p o p u l a t i o n to  f o o d s u p p l y because of the  fixed  supply  of  TABLE  2.11  THE FUELWOOD SITUATION I N THE DEVELOPING  or  Countries with Actual P o t e n t i a l Fuelwood Problems  OPEC Members: Ecuador Indonesia Niger ia 2 3 % o f a l l OPEC c o u n t r i e s  Non-OPEC n e t o i l e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g countries: Angola Burma China Congo Egypt Zaire 4 3 % o f a l l non-OPEC n e t o i l exporting developing countries Net o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s : Afghanistan Bangladesh Benin Bhuton Chad Cameroon Cape B e r d e Central African Republic Cameroon Botswana E q u a t o r i a l Guinea El Salvador Ethiopia Ghana Grenada Guinea Haiti Honduras India D e m o c r a t i c Kampuchea Kenya Liberia Loa R e p u b l i c Madagascar Malawi  COUNTRIES Countries Without Fuelwood Problems Algeria Gabon I ran I raq Kuwait Libya Qatar S. A r a b i a U.A.E. Venezuela Bolivia Malaysia Mexico Oman Peru Syria Trinidad Tuni s i a  Albania Argentina Bahamas Barbados Brazil Chile Coasta Rica Columbia Cuba Cyprus Dominican Republic Fiji Guatemala Guyana Ivory Coast Jamaica Jordan Republic of Korea Democratic Korea Suriname Turkey Uraquay Yugoslavia Guinea Romania  56  TABLE 2 . 1 1  (cont.)  THE FUELWOOD SITUATION IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES or Net  Countries with Actual P o t e n t i a l Fuelwood Problems o i l importing Mali Maldives Lesotho Sudan Sri Lanka Thailand Swaziland Tanzania Uganda Upper Volta Vietnam Z imbabwe Guinea Biss Mozambigue Pakistan Burundi Rwanda Gambia Mauritania Morocco Nepal Niger  Countries Without Fuelwood Problems  developing countries Togo Zambia Yemen  (cont'd) Mongolia Malta Mauritius Nicaragua Panama Paraquay Portugal  Philippines Sao Tome a n d Principe Senegal Sierra Leone Solomon Islands Somalia W e s t e r n Samoa 65% o f  a l l  net  importing  developing  countries  This table excludes a l l capital surplus o i l exporters, and c o u n t r i e s w i t h p o p u l a t i o n s less than 0.5 m i l l i o n . A country is p e r c e i v e d t o be e x p e r i e n c i n g a c t u a l o r p o t e n t i a l f u e l w o o d problems if i t s e s t i m a t e d a n n u a l c o n s u m p t i o n o f f u e l w o o d c a n n o t be sustained t h r o u g h t h e y e a r 2 0 0 0 , w i t h o u t damage t o t h e e c o l o g y , a t a level of .75m p e r c a p i t a w h e r e income p e r h e a d i n 1978 was b e l o w $300, f a l l i n g l i n e a r l y to .50m a t $600 and z e r o a t $900. Many c o u n t r i e s not i n c l u d e d in t h i s group have or w i l l have fuelwood problems in l o c a l areas (World Bank, 1981:5). 3  3  Source:  World Bank, 1980: Energy in Developing Countries. Washington, D . C : World Bank, August, p. 5; Dunkerley et a l . , 1981: Factors Affecting the C o m p o s i t i o n o f E n e r g y Use i n D e v e l o p i n g Countries. Washington, D.C. Resources For the F u t u r e , p. 14.  TABLE 2.12 FUELWOOD SHORTAGES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CURRENT AND FUTURE DIMENSION IN MILLIONS OF PEOPLE AFFECTED  Region Africa  Acute Scarcity * TOTAL RURAL 55  49  Near East and North Africa  1980  Deficit **  TOTAL  RURAL  146  131  104  69  2000 . Prospective Acute Scarcity Deficit or Deficit TOTAL RURAL TOTAL RURAL 112  102  535  464  268  464  Asia Pacific  31  29  832  710  161  148  Latin America  26  18  201  143  50  30  512  342  112  96  1052  323  280  2986  2398  1283  1671  1434  * An acute scarcity situation exists i n zones or countries which have a negative wood energy balance; where existing fuelwood resources have been depleted to the point where populations cannot obtain sufficient fuelwood, even through overcutting; where cx>nsurtption i s below mLnijjTum needs. ** Deficit sutuations occur i n zones or countries where populations are s t i l l able to meet their minimum fuelwood needs, but only by overcutting existing resources. These resources are already insufficient to meet present needs on a sustainable basis, and are rapidly being depleted. Source: FAO, 1981: Map of the fuelwood situation i n the developing countries. Rome: Food and Agriculture of United Nations. P.8  58 l a n d , Saouma ( 1 9 8 1 : 3 ) r e m a r k s t h a t , I r o n i c a l l y , the M a l t h u s i a n nightmare t h r e a t e n s to become r e a l i t y i n r e s p e c t n o t t o f o o d b u t t o t h e f u e l for i t s preparation. The  high  r a t e of p o p u l a t i o n  growth i n the d e v e l o p i n g  leading to increasing pressures settlement,  resulting  woodlands.  In a d d i t i o n , t h e r e  o f wood r e s o u r c e s construction  on  world  l a n d f o r a g r i c u l t u r e and  i n t h e d e s t r u c t i o n of huge t r a c t s  of  is a localized over-exploitation  f o r fuelwood, or timber  i n the v i c i n i t y  is  of  for  settlements.  housing The  W o r l d Bank  (1980a:38) notes t h a t , ... t h e f o r e s t s o f d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e b e i n g consumed a t a r a t e o f 1.3 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l f o r e s t a r e a , o r 10 - 15 m i l l i o n h e c t a r e s a y e a r . . . . As f u e l w o o d s u p p l i e s a r e e x h a u s t e d , a n i m a l and c r o p r e s i d u e s a r e b u r n e d d e p r i v i n g t h e s o i l s o f v a l u a b l e n u t r i e n t s and o r g a n i c c o n d i t i o n i n g m a t e r i a l . The amount o f dung now b e i n g b u r n e d a n n u a l l y i s b e l i e v e d t o be e q u i v a l e n t t o some 2 m i l l i o n t o n s o f n i t r o g e n and p h o s p h o r o u s . In l i g h t  of t h i s ,  t h e W o r l d Bank  (1980a:39) e s t i m a t e s  that,  On t h e o r d e r o f 50 m i l l i o n h e c t a r e s o f f u e l w o o d w o u l d n e e d t o be p l a n t e d i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s by t h e y e a r 2000 t o s a t i s f y t h e p r o j e c t e d demand f o r d o m e s t i c c o o k i n g and h e a t i n g . T h i s would n e c e s s i t a t e a f i v e - f o l d i n c r e a s e o v e r c u r r e n t p l a n t i n g w o r l d w i d e . The gap b e t w e e n p r e s e n t and r e q u i r e d p l a n t i n g l e v e l s i s l a r g e i n a l l r e g i o n s , b u t p a r t i c u l a r l y so i n A f r i c a . Here i t i s e s t i m a t e d t h a t p l a n t i n g w o u l d h a v e t o be i n c r e a s e d a s much as 1 5 - f o l d t o a s s u r e a d e q u a t e f u e l w o o d s u p p l i e s . I n A s i a , w h i c h a l r e a d y has s e r i o u s e r o s i o n p r o b l e m s , n o t o n l y must t o t a l p l a n t i n g be i n c r e a s e d , b u t s p e c i a l e f f o r t s must be made t o c o m b i n e i n c r e a s e s i n p l a n t i n g w i t h measures t o c o n t r o l e r o s i o n . In a d d i t i o n to o v e r - p o p u l a t i o n , the  fuelwood c r i s i s  a second e x p l a n a t i o n  i s o f f e r e d , b a s e d on  the concept of  " T r a g e d y of t h e Commons" p r o p o s e d by H a r d i n to t h i s e x p l a n a t i o n , the  first-come first-served  the e x p l o i t a t i o n of u n r e g u l a t e d c o n s u m p t i o n but  not  i n 1968.  production.  rule  of  the According governing  woodstocks i s p r o p e l l i n g With r i s i n g population,  the  59  demand f o r f u e l w o o d pressuring  exceeds supply without a u t o m a t i c a l l y  individuals acting i n their  supplies necessary  f o r meeting f u t u r e needs.  while the i n d i v i d u a l s engaging to  own i n t e r e s t  be a w a r e a n d c o n c e r n e d  In other  collection  words, are l i k e l y  about t h e e c o l o g i c a l breakdown a r o u n d  them, t h e y a r e s i m u l t a n e o u s l y common p r o p e r t y n a t u r e  i n fuelwood  to invest i n  i m m o b i l i s e d by t h e u n r e g u l a t e d  of t r e e s .  F o r example, Dunkerley  eta l .  (1981b:35) remark t h a t , P a r t of t h e cause of t h e fuelwood c r i s i s i s t h a t i n many LDCs, f u e l w o o d i s a common p r o p e r t y r e s o u r c e s o t h a t u s e r s do n o t p a y t h e f u l l c o s t s o f f u e l w o o d u s e and p r o d u c e r s do n o t r e c e i v e t h e f u l l b e n e f i t s o f f u e l wood i n v e s t m e n t s . A l a r g e share of fuelwood i s c o l l e c t e d f o r f r e e f r o m l a n d s w h i c h a r e e i t h e r common p r o p e r t y where a n y o n e may l e g a l l y c o l l e c t f u e l w o o d , o r f r o m p r i v a t e o r p u b l i c f o r e s t s where f u e l w o o d c o l l e c t i o n i s t e c h n i c a l l y i l l e g a l b u t de_ f a c t o u n c o n t r o l l e d . T h e r e i s l i t t l e i n c e n t i v e f o r anyone t o u n d e r t a k e investments to i n c r e a s e the p r o d u c t i v i t y of these areas. The b e n e f i t s t o any g i v e n i n d i v i d u a l o f p l a n t i n g o r p r o t e c t i n g t r e e s a r e d i l u t e d as others r e c e i v e t h e a d v a n t a g e s o f h i s l a b o r . As a r e s u l t , r u r a l v i l l a g e r s who c o l l e c t f u e l w o o d f o r t h e i r own u s e , a s w e l l a s f u e l w o o d s e l l e r s a n d c h a r c o a l m a k e r s who g a t h e r fuelwood f o r s a l e t o o t h e r s , c u t e x c e s s i v e amounts o f wood. These p r o b l e m s i n h e r e n t i n common p r o p e r t y u s e o f f o r e s t l a n d a r e compounded by i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n , w h i c h i n c r e a s e s t h e demand f o r l a n d f o r o t h e r u s e s , a s w e l l a s t h e p r e s s u r e s upon r e m a i n i n g f o r e s t l a n d . T h i s common p r o p e r t y n a t u r e to  of f o r e s t  resources  leads the users  s p e n d more t i m e , e n e r g y a n d money t o meet t h e i r  from t h e d w i n d l i n g s u p p l y base r a t h e r than  energy  needs  invest i n  r e g e n e r a t i o n o f common p r o p e r t y wood s t o c k w h i c h somebody e l s e i s most l i k e l y  t o consume.  This ethic  d e f o r e s t a t i o n and e n v i r o n m e n t a l t h e commons". suggested to  As a s o l u t i o n  ultimately  leads to t o t a l  d e g r a d a t i o n , or a "tragedy of  t o t h i s p r o b l e m i t h a s been  t h a t t h e wood s t o c k be p r i v a t i z e d ;  that  disincentives  t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f common p r o p e r t y t r e e s be r e d u c e d  by  60  s u b d i v i d i n g common property  wood stock  into exclusive  units  a l l o c a t e d t o s p e c i f i c use communities. The  P h i l i p p i n e s , and the Gujurat  the success of small-holder production  s t a t e of India  illustrate  cash t r e e farming p r o j e c t s f o r  of firewood, c h a r c o a l , or pulpwood (Spears,  Nevertheless,  1980).  such endeavors are not without the i n e v i t a b l e  problem of e n f o r c i n g the necessary r e s t r i c t i o n s .  Individuals  may p e r s i s t i n c o l l e c t i n g t r e e s from p r i v a t e or p r o t e c t e d to s a t i s f y t h e i r needs f o r wood. activities,  Guarding a g a i n s t  where p o s s i b l e , i s l i k e l y  developing  and, given  that the m a j o r i t y  to lead to i t s  of users i n the  world a r e poor, such a system may worsen the present  income m a l - d i s t r i b u t i o n s i t u a t i o n of these A t h i r d perspective c l i m a t i c explanation. seasonal  illegal  to be c o s t l y .  Furthermore, the p r i v a t i z a t i o n of wood i s l i k e l y commercialization  such  areas  regions.  on the fuelwood c r i s i s  i s known as the  Sudden and prolonged v a r i a t i o n s i n  p r e c i p i t a t i o n i s manifested i n numerous forms,  i n c l u d i n g drought and d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n .  The c l i m a t i c change i s  s i g n i f i c a n t , c o n t r i b u t i n g t o a dramatic decrease i n v e g e t a t i o n and  the r a p i d expansion of impoverished f o r e s t lands  regions  of A f r i c a and A s i a .  desertification and  i n most  For example, the c r e e p i n g  i n Northern N i g e r i a i s due to a lack of r a i n f a l l  i s accompanied by v i o l e n t wind storms which cause sand  p a r t i c l e s to accumulate and submerge surrounding a g r i c u l t u r a l lands.  T h i s viewpoint suggests that a combination of  r e a f f o r e s t a t i o n , s o i l and water c o n s e r v a t i o n , use  and improved  land  systems can d r a m a t i c a l l y a l t e r t h i s t r a g i c p i c t u r e . A major f a c t o r c o n t r i b u t i n g to fuelwood s c a r c i t y i s the  61 use o f t r a d i t i o n a l of  open f i r e  s t o v e s , through which l a r g e  amounts  energy a r e l o s t w h i l e b u r n i n g fuelwood and o t h e r o r g a n i c  fuels  (Dunkerley et a l . ,  1981). only  1981b; W o r l d Bank, 1980c; C h a u v i n ,  Use o f t h e t r a d i t i o n a l  s t o v e y i e l d s an e f f i c i e n c y of  f i v e t o ten percent (Dunkerley e t a l . ,  1978a, D r a p e r ,  1977).  1981b; F r e n c h ,  The W o r l d Bank ( 1 9 8 0 b : 9 - 1 0 ) n o t e s  that,  At l e a s t as important as i n c r e a s i n g t h e s u p p l y of firewood i s improving the e f f i c i e n c y w i t h which i t i s used. The p o o r i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a c t u a l l y use more f u e l f o r c o o k i n g t h a n p e o p l e i n i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s because they e f f e c t i v e l y use o n l y a s m a l l f r a c t i o n of t h e energy i n t h e f u e l s t h a t they burn. Most of t h e s t o v e s f o r t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s a c c o m p l i s h l i t t l e more t h a n h o l d i n g t h e c o o k i n g v e s s e l a t an a p p r o p r i a t e h e i g h t a b o v e a n e s s e n t i a l l y open f i r e . This requires substantial energy  output.  capital of  fuelwood f o r a s m a l l u n i t of used  A s t u d y by C h a u v i n  (1981) o f O u a g a d o u g o u , t h e  o f Upper V o l t a , e v a l u a t e s t h e e f f e c t  improved  that the adoption  s t o v e s c o u l d h a v e on f u e l w o o d s a v i n g s .  His findings  s u g g e s t t h a t a f a m i l y o f e i g h t p e o p l e consumes 3285 kg o f wood per y e a r , and t h a t t h i s consumption of  c o u l d be r e d u c e d t o 1643 kg  wood p e r y e a r t h r o u g h t h e u s e o f an i m p r o v e d  c o n s i s t i n g o f an e a r t h e n w a r e  brick  fire  stove,  enclosure with  N e v e r t h e l e s s , s u c h new, e n e r g y - e f f i c i e n t  chimney.  s t o v e s must be  a c c e p t a b l e t o t h e p e o p l e f o r whom t h e y a r e d e s i g n e d i f t h e y a r e to  be i n s t r u m e n t a l  developing world.  i n reducing the fuelwood shortage i n the As t h e W o r l d Bank  (1980b:10) n o t e s ,  I m p r o v e d s t o v e s h a v e been d e v e l o p e d i n many c o u n t r i e s b u t s u c c e s s f u l e f f o r t s t o g e t them i n t o w i d e s p r e a d use a r e few. A further contributing  f a c t o r t o fuelwood s c a r c i t y  developing world i n v o l v e s the s u b s t i t u t i o n of fuelwood and g a s , p a r t i c u l a r l y  i n urban a r e a s .  Recent  i n the  for o i l  dramatic increases  62 i n o i l and fuelwood  gas p r i c e s h a v e l e d t o g r o w i n g  and  substitution  c h a r c o a l i n urban c e n t r e s , thereby  wood s u p p l y p r o b l e m s .  Moss and Morgan  of  intensifying  (1981:30-31) note  that,  I n some c o u n t r i e s , n o t a b l y i n I n d i a , k e r o s e n e i s s u b s i d i s e d i n o r d e r t o e n c o u r a g e i t s use and s o d i s c o u r a g e t h e use o f wood i n o r d e r t o s a v e t h e t r e e s . While  t h i s p r o v i d e s a s h o r t term  yield  some n e g a t i v e c o n s e q u e n c e s .  indigeneous on c o s t l y  be  For c o u n t r i e s without  c o n t r i b u t e to fuelwood  t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d must be a d d r e s s e d  in seeking a solution domestic  i t may  oil.  v a r i o u s f a c t o r s which  throughout  to the problem,  o i l r e s o u r c e s t h i s m i g h t mean i n c r e a s e d d e p e n d e n c e  imported  The  solution  use.  t o t r a d i t i o n a l energy  scarcity  simultaneously  supplies for  I n t h e l o n g t e r m , wood f u e l p r o b l e m s w i l l  r e s o l v e d through  t h e c r e a t i o n o f new  r e s o u r c e s , u s i n g a f f o r e s t a t i o n and  and  have t o  additional  r e f o r e s t a t i o n programs  some c o u n t r i e s a r e a l r e a d y a t t e m p t i n g .  As P a s c a  which  (1981:2) n o t e s ,  As u s u a l , t h e s o l u t i o n s go b e y o n d t e c h n o l o g y . They i n v o l v e a n e x u s of t e c h n o l o g i c a l , e c o n o m i c , s o c i o c u l t u r a l and p o l i t i c a l f a c t o r s . Remedies or p r e s c r i p t i o n s  for resolving  t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d must t a k e countries'  energy  the energy  i n t o account  a l l a s p e c t s of  n e e d s , i n c l u d i n g t e c h n i c a l , e c o n o m i c and  economic f a c t o r s , as w e l l as u s e r p r e f e r e n c e types.  problems of  for various  these non-  fuel  3  CHAPTER  P O L I C Y O P T I O N S AND P U B L I C  3.1  Remedies And  ACCEPTANCE  Prescriptions  P r o b l e m s o f h i g h e n e r g y c o s t s and c o n s t r a i n t s w i t h the a v a i l a b i l i t y  of energy s o u r c e s both n o n t r a d i t i o n a l  t r a d i t i o n a l h a v e t r i g g e r e d an e x a m i n a t i o n o f e n e r g y options for developing countries. a r i s e n o v e r t h i s m a t t e r , one energy c o n s e r v a t i o n  associated  Several  and  policy  i s s u e s of d e b a t e have  of w h i c h r e l a t e s t o p r o s p e c t s f o r  i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d .  Energy  c o n s e r v a t i o n , according to Tolba (1978), i n v o l v e s the  strategy  o f a d j u s t i n g and o p t i m i z i n g e n e r g y - u s i n g s y s t e m s and p r o c e d u r e s so a s t o r e d u c e e n e r g y r e q u i r e m e n t s p e r u n i t o f o u t p u t w i t h o u t affecting  socio-economic development  life-styles.  or causing d i s r u p t i o n i n  Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n , t h e r e f o r e , c a l l s  what i s a v a i l a b l e go conservation policies c o u n t r i e s , because  further.  To some a u t h o r s , e n e r g y  seem o f l i t t l e  of t h e i r  use t o d e v e l o p i n g  relatively  w h i c h i s due  t o t h e low a v e r a g e  population.  S m i l and Knowland  f o r making  income (1981:8)  low e n e r g y  consumption,  of the m a j o r i t y of note  their  that,  [ E n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n ] , so i m p e r a t i v e f o r t h e a d v a n c e d n a t i o n s , i s , o b v i o u s l y , o f a l i m i t e d use i n most o f t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d where r e f i n e d f u e l s a r e n o t w a s t e d on i n e f f i c i e n t i n d i v i d u a l t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , e n e r g y i n t e n s i v e l e i s u r e a c t i v i t i e s , and w a s t e f u l s p a c e h e a t i n g and c o o l i n g . T h e r e i s , n a t u r a l l y , room f o r improved c o n v e r s i o n e f f i c i e n c i e s but such s t e p s a l o n e c a n n o t e v e n p e r c e p t i b l y s l o w t h e g r o w i n g demand. D u n k e r l e y e t a l . ( 1 9 8 1 a : 1 2 4 ) , on t h e o t h e r h a n d , a r e o f t h e opinion  that,  Even t a k i n g i n t o a c c o u n t r i s i n g c o n s u m p t i o n a s s o c i a t e d w i t h i n c r e a s i n g economic development, t h e r e a r e important o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o conserve energy i n both t h e t r a d i t i o n a l and c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r s . 63  64 S i m i l a r o p t i m i s m i s d i s p l a y e d by T o l b a  ( 1 9 7 8 : 1 1 ) when he r e m a r k s  that, The commonly h e l d a x i o m t h a t " o n l y t h e a f f l u e n t c a n a f f o r d c o n s e r v a t i o n " i s t h o r o u g h l y d i s c r e d i t e d by an e x a m i n a t i o n o f what h a s r e c e n t l y been c a l l e d " t h e other energy c r i s i s : f i r e w o o d " . P r o p e r management o f energy resources i s e s s e n t i a l i n t h e poor c o u n t r i e s because of energy's importance i n domestic l i f e , a g r i c u l t u r e , t h e c r e a t i o n of p r o d u c t i v e j o b s , and t h e b a l a n c i n g of trade w i t h other n a t i o n s . Tolba  g o e s on t o e x p l a i n t h e e c o n o m i c a n d e n v i r o n m e n t a l  a s s o c i a t e d w i t h energy c o n s e r v a t i o n  benefits  p o l i c i e s , when he p o i n t s o u t  that, Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n today w i l l a l l o w the e a r t h ' s l i m i t e d r e s o u r c e s b a s e o f h i g h - q u a l i t y f u e l s t o be " s t r e t c h e d " further. I t w i l l enable future generations t o share i n the e a r t h ' s f i n i t e stock of f o s s i l f u e l s . Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n w i l l a l l o w a p o r t i o n o f t h e s e f u e l s t o be r e s e r v e d f o r non-energy p u r p o s e s : d r u g s , l u b r i c a n t s , and o t h e r compounds. I t w i l l h e l p reduce environmental degradation a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a l l c u r r e n t energy p r o d u c t i o n technologies. Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n w i l l permit t h e avoidance o f , or minimal r e l i a n c e on, d o u b t f u l energy sources while the search f o r safe, s u s t a i n a b l e sources continues. Conservation a l s o decreases the l i k e l i h o o d t h a t t h e c l i m a t o l o g i c a l t h r e s h o l d ( f o r example, w i t h carbon d i o x i d e p r o d u c t i o n , or with r e g i o n a l heat g e n e r a t i o n ) w i l l be c r o s s e d , t r i g g e r i n g c o n s e q u e n c e s t h a t may be d e v a s t a t i n g . Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n developing oil  u n d o u b t e d l y h a s some a d v a n t a g e s f o r  countries.  Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n  t h e r a t e of  d e p l e t i o n i n n e t o i l e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s and e x t e n d t h e  l e n g t h of time t h a t revenue w i l l In net o i l i m p o r t i n g import  be e a r n e d f r o m t h i s  countries, conservation  c o s t s and b a l a n c e  traditional  resource.  may r e d u c e o i l  of payments p r o b l e m s .  Suggested measures f o r c o n s e r v a t i o n and  may l i m i t  energy i n v o l v e g r e a t e r  energy end-use and c o n s e r v a t i o n  of both n o n t r a d i t i o n a l  u s e o f more  technologies.  t r a n s p o r t m e t h o d s c o u l d be c h a n g e d , s h i f t i n g  efficient  The m i x o f traffic  from l e s s  65 t o more e f f i c i e n t and  increasing  c a r r i e r s such as p u b l i c passenger  load factors  ( W o r l d Bank, 1 9 8 1 b ) .  transport,  The  development  o f h i g h a n d low g r a d e c o a l a s s u b s t i t u t e s f o r o i l i n  electricity  g e n e r a t i o n , f o r r a i l w a y t r a n s p o r t , and  uses a r e f u r t h e r methods of o i l c o n s e r v a t i o n  f o r domestic  (Eden e t  al.,  1981). In the i n d u s t r i a l  s e c t o r energy c o n s e r v a t i o n  arise partly  from changes  from changes  i n t h e methods o f p r o d u c t i o n .  opportunities  i n t h e mix o f p r o d u c t s , a n d  partly  Such changes  take the form of s e l e c t i n g energy c o n s e r v i n g p r o c e s s e s . e x a m p l e , m a t e r i a l s whose p r o d u c t i o n  i s energy  be a s w i t c h f r o m more t o l e s s  s o u r c e s of i n d u s t r i a l  energy s u p p l y through a p r i c i n g  which e n s u r e s t h a t , as f a r as p o s s i b l e , t h e p r i c e of  Bank, 1 9 8 1 b ) .  cost  The W o r l d Bank  (Dunkerley et a l . ,  (1981b)  For  i n t e n s i v e may  r e c y c l e d , o r t h e r e may  r e f l e c t s the r e a l economic  might  be  costly policy energy  1981b; W o r l d  recommends t h a t  measures  a i m e d a t r e d u c i n g o i l d e p e n d e n c e c o n c e n t r a t e on i m p r o v e m e n t the energy e f f i c i e n c y of t h e i n d u s t r i a l and  transportation  s e c t o r s , and on d e t e r m i n i n g s u i t a b l e p r i c i n g Conservation techniques for t r a d i t i o n a l r e p l a c e m e n t o f most t r a d i t i o n a l a b o u t 90 p e r c e n t o f t h e i r Similarly,  charcoal  open f i r e  energy  resulting  the  waste  trees  and  in substantial  E s t i m a t e s s u g g e s t a b o u t a 55 p e r c e n t l o s s o f  energy d u r i n g t h i s p r o c e s s of c h a r c o a l p r o d u c t i o n French  involve  earlier.  i s p r e s e n t l y p r o d u c e d by f e l l i n g  b u r n i n g them i n s a n d c o v e r e d p i t s , energy waste.  policies.  stoves, which  h e a t , as mentioned  in  (Earl,  1975).  ( 1 9 7 8 a ) r e p o r t s l o s s e s a s h i g h a s 50 t o 80 p e r c e n t i n  A f r i c a and A s i a , e v e n when h a r d w o o d i s u s e d .  Charcoal  66  p r o d u c t i o n c o u l d be improved Morgan  kilns,  improved  through  but not w i t h o u t  the i n t r o d u c t i o n  some t r a d e - o f f s .  of  As Moss  and  (1981:27) r e p o r t , The more s o p h i s t i c a t e d k i l n s and r e t o r t s a r e f i x e d and e x p e n s i v e , but e x t r e m e l y e f f i c i e n t . E a r t h and p i t k i l n s and p o r t a b l e s t e e l k i l n s a r e much l e s s e f f i c i e n t , e v e n w a s t e f u l o f f u e l , b u t a r e c h e a p e r and much more m o b i l e .  D e v e l o p m e n t and  implementation  o f t h e s e and  programs r e q u i r e the s y s t e m a t i c c o l l e c t i o n c o n s u m p t i o n by m a j o r f o r m s o f s u p p l y and end-use s e c t o r s ( D u n k e r l e y , e t a l . ,  other conservation o f d a t a on  f o r e a c h of t h e m a i n  1981b).  Information i s also  r e q u i r e d c o n c e r n i n g methods o f r e d u c i n g e n e r g y impeding  economic growth.  F o r e x a m p l e , g o v e r n m e n t p r i o r i t i e s may inflation,  investment,  and  energy which  conservation policies.  conflict.  The  g o a l s of  of payments a r e l i k e l y  to  take  c o n s e r v a t i o n measures i n v o l v i n g  high  p r i c e s or t a x e s aimed a t r e d u c i n g consumption, may  investments  i n new  r e d u c i n g o i l i m p o r t s may technology;  through  energy  the promotion  of e c o n o m i c a l  enforcing  passenger  n e c e s s i t a t e the  worsen the c o u n t r y ' s b a l a n c e  A second policies  a l t e r n a t i v e s aimed a t  l e a d t o i m p o r t c o s t s o f new  h i g h g a s o l i n e t a x e s may  c a r s , and  measures  i n t u r n s t i m u l a t e i n f l a t i o n a r y wage demands.  Similarly,  and  some  r e d u c t i o n of u n e m p l o y m e n t , i n c r e a s e d  the balance  precedence over energy  demands w i t h o u t  Eden e t a l . ( 1 9 8 1 ) i d e n t i f y  m a j o r o b s t a c l e s t o t h e a d o p t i o n of e n e r g y  controlled  energy  equipment cars  import of s m a l l  o f payment  o b s t a c l e t o the a d o p t i o n of energy  situation. conservation  i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d c e n t r e s around the c o s t s of such p o l i c i e s .  measures w i l l  Given  have p o s i t i v e  the u n c e r t a i n t y that  such  r e s u l t s , government i n t e r v e n t i o n  and  67 allocation  of p u b l i c  constraints, is probably energy  funds  the World  seems u n l i k e l y .  Yet, despite  Bank ( 1 9 8 1 a ) c o n c l u d e s  that conservation  t h e b e s t medium-term p a t h t o r e d u c t i o n o f  c o n s u m p t i o n and  warrants  closer  industrialized  total  attention.  A m a j o r theme o f s t u d i e s c o n c e r n i n g e n e r g y developing world  p o l i c i e s of  n a t i o n s , s h o u l d a v o i d d e p e n d e n c e on n a t u r a l gas, or nonrenewable  hydrocarbon energy  o r i e n t e d t e c h n o l o g i e s ( W o r l d Bank, 1 9 7 9 a , 1981b; R e d d y , 1978b; H i l l i n g ,  example, E a r l  the  i s the n o t i o n that these c o u n t r i e s , u n l i k e  f u e l s s u c h a s o i l and  French,  such  1976;  Earl,  (1975:103) remarks  1975;  1979;  P a r i k h , 1978).  For  that,  I t i s p a r t i c u l a r l y dangerous f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s t o r e l y upon t r e n d s w h i c h h a v e o c c u r r e d i n t h e p r e s e n t developed c o u n t r i e s . O i l resources are being depleted at a much f a s t e r r a t e t h a n f o r m e r l y and t h i s i s c e r t a i n t o l e a d t o s u b s t a n t i a l p r i c e i n c r e a s e s not o n l y f o r o i l but for a l l substitutes. Although developed c o u n t r i e s with a d e q u a t e f u n d s w i l l u t i l i z e t h e i r consumer s u r p l u s t o purchase f u e l f o r t h e i r expanding needs, the o u t l o o k f o r developing c o u n t r i e s i s bleak since s u b s t i t u t i o n i s r e a l i s t i c o n l y f o r t h o s e c o u n t r i e s which can a f f o r d the substitutes. S i m i l a r l y , Makhijani(1981:15)  i s of the o p i n i o n t h a t ,  I n t h e i r r u s h t o i m i t a t e t h e W e s t , t h e p l a n n e r s and p o l i t i c i a n s o f p o o r c o u n t r i e s c o n s i s t e n t l y o p t f o r what i s known a s " h i g h t e c h n o l o g y " o r " a d v a n c e d t e c h n o l o g y " , t e r m s u s u a l l y u n d e f i n e d b u t i m p l i c i t l y t a k e n t o mean " c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e technology". Many o f t h e s e t e c h n o l o g i e s a r e e c o l o g i c a l l y u n s o u n d and d e b a s i n g t o human d i g n i t y . ... The s o l u t i o n s t o t h e p r o b l e m s o f d e v e l o p m e n t c a l l f o r t h e u s e o f r e s o u r c e s i n a manner t h a t i s r a d i c a l l y d i f f e r e n t f r o m t h e way t h e y a r e , o r have been, used i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s . The  literature  suggests  t h a t r a t h e r than  r e l y on l a r g e  s c a l e , c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e , nonrenewable e n e r g y - o r i e n t e d technology, developing c o u n t r i e s should t u r n to biomass, s o l a r , windpower, m i n i h y d r o ,  tidal  p o w e r , wave p o w e r ,  and  biogas,  68 geothermal energy. asserts  The  W o r l d Bank ( 1 9 7 9 b : 1 - 2 ) , f o r e x a m p l e ,  that,  M o d e r n i z a t i o n v i r t u a l l y r e q u i r e s t h e use o f e l e c t r i c i t y and m e c h a n i c a l e n e r g y f r o m m a c h i n e s , y e t the c o s t of t h e s e t e c h n o l o g i e s i s t o o h i g h t o p e r m i t t h e i r r a p i d e x t e n s i o n through the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . The o n l y s i m p l e r e s o l u t i o n t o t h i s d i l e m m a i s t o deny t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of p r o v i d i n g modern means o f p r o d u c t i o n and a m e n i t i e s t o most of t h e w o r l d ' s p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e by c o n t i n u i n g t o r e l y s o l e l y on c o n v e n t i o n a l e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n and i n t e r n a l c o m b u s t i o n engines. At l e a s t t h r e e a l t e r n a t i v e a p p r o a c h e s s h o u l d be p u r s u e d : m a k i n g more e f f e c t i v e use of d r a f t a n i m a l s , d e v e l o p i n g t e c h n o l o g i e s t h a t may p e r m i t e c o n o m i c use o f l o c a l l y - a v a i l a b l e w i n d , h y d r o , and s o l a r e n e r g y i n some areas. Siddiqi  and  Hein  (1979:165-166) note t h a t ,  C o u n t r i e s w i t h o u t adequate energy r e s o u r c e s of t h e i r own w i l l be c o m p e t i n g i n t h e f u t u r e w i t h a d v a n c e d i n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t i e s f o r the d w i n d l i n g s u p p l i e s of f o s s i l f u e l s and u r a n i u m . I n many c a s e s , t h e y w i l l be at a d i s a d v a n t a g e i n t h i s c o m p e t i t i o n because of t h e i r i n a b i l i t y t o e x p o r t a d e q u a t e amounts o f raw m a t e r i a l s o r f i n i s h e d p r o d u c t s i n s u f f i c i e n t q u a n t i t i e s t o pay f o r t h e h i g h c o s t of i m p o r t e d e n e r g y . I t t h u s seems e s s e n t i a l t h a t such c o u n t r i e s should s e r i o u s l y c o n s i d e r the p o t e n t i a l of a l t e r n a t e energy s o u r c e s , e s p e c i a l l y r e n e w a b l e o n e s , s u c h a s h y d r o e l e c t r i c p o w e r , w i n d , and s o l a r energy. Technologies  and  a p p l i c a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t e new  energy  o p t i o n s are d i s c u s s e d e x t e n s i v e l y i n the c u r r e n t l i t e r a t u r e , are  s u m m a r i z e d i n F i g u r e 3.1  These t e c h n o l o g i e s can production direct  process  i n Tables  The  use  3.1,  be d i v i d e d i n t o t h o s e  of t h e r m a l , m e c h a n i c a l ,  s o l a r , w i n d , and  1981b).  and  and  of p h o t o s y n t h e s i s  has  electrical  3.3.  energy  (World  i n organic matter  traditionally  and  that e n t a i l  s m a l l s c a l e hydropower  of energy f i x e d  3.2,  focused  by on  the from  Bank, the the  d i r e c t c o m b u s t i o n of biomass energy s o u r c e s .  However, as  r e s u l t of the  been i n c r e a s i n g  interest through  r i s i n g p r i c e s o f o i l , t h e r e has  i n t h e more e f f i c i e n t conversion  utilization  of biomass r e s o u r c e s  and  a  of biomass energy  to s y n t h e t i c fuels  with  69  MAJOR RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES AND FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES  APPLICATIONS  Examples Direct S o l a r Energy 8  6  S  ^ t e  n  Domestic hot water, space h e a t i n g and c o o l ing, crop drying, cooking, desalination, industrial p r o c e s s heat  Heat Energy  s  of End Uses  Prime movers (e.g., o r g a n i c Rankine c y c l e engine, t u r b i n e s )  Wind energy  Wind Energy / C o n v e r s i o n Systems  Source:  World Energy  / /  Bank,  Mechanical Energy  1981:  Technology  Strengthening July.  p.21.  Water pumping, g r a i n grinding, transportation, I n d u s t r i a l s h a f t power  Mobilizing i n  Local  Renewable  Developing C a p a b i l i t i e s  Countries: and  Research.  TABLE TECHNOLOGIES FOR  3.1  CONVERSION OF-BIOMASS INTO USABLE'FUELS  Conversion Process  Processed Fuel  Starting Material  Needs f o r Research, Development, and Demonstration Major Gaps Who should f i l l these gaps  Needs f o r Information and Standardization Large-scale Small-scale technology technology  Extraction  Fuel o i l  O i l seeds  E v a l u a t i o n of e x i s t i n g s m a l l - s c a l e equipment  Developing country l a b o r a t o r y or consulting firm  None  Fermentation  Ethanol  Sugar, starch  Improvement i n y i e l d s and process e f f i c i e n c y  B  A,B  Enzymatic digest i o n and fermentation  Ethanol  Wood  Improvements i n b i o chemical and engine e r i n g process e f f i ciency  Industrial sector i n developed and developing countries Industrial sector i n developed and developing countries  None  None  Gasification/ Liquefaction  Methanol  Wood or other cellulose  Develop technoeconomically efficient process  I n d u s t r i a l sector i n developed and advanced developing c o u n t r i e s  None  None  Carbonization  Charcoal  Wood  Improvements i n y i e l d s and process e f f i c i e n c y ; adaptive research on small-scale plants  Private organizations and rirms i n LDCs with external collaboration  Anaerobic digestion  Gas/biogas (methane)  Animal and agricultural residues  M i c r o b i o l o g i c a l , mate r i a l s and s u b s t r a t e research, l o c a l adaptat i o n and s o c i a t a l i s sues  P u b l i c and p r i v a t e Laboratories; private o r g a n i z a t i o n s and f i r m 6 i n developing countries  A,B  O  TABLE 3.1 TECHNOLOGIES FOR  Conversion  Processed  Process  Fuel  Starting Material  Needs  CONVERSION OF  oil,  char,  gas  Briquetting  Gasification  Briquettes  Producer gas  Urban wastes, agricultural residues, wood Agricultural residues, straw  Wood, agricultural residues  Notes:  A.  Develop agreed among w o r k e r s  B.  Source:  evaluation in different  methodology countries;  BIOMASS INTO USABLE  f o r R e s e a r c h , Development, and  FUELS  Demonstra-  Needs  tion Major  Pyrolysis  continued  Gaps  Adaptation  Who  to  local  Developing insustrial  conditions  Development tion  of  and  adapta-  small-scale  machines  P r o c e s s improvement, adaptation to various feedstocks, development o f s m a l l - s c a l e machines  for users;  encourage  review s t a t e  o f the  exchange o f  Large-scale technology  country sector  Small-scale technology  None  P u b l i c and p r i v a t e Laboratories, private o r g a n i z a t i o n s , and firms i n developing countries  A,B  P u b l i c and p r i v a t e laboratories, private o r g a n i z a t i o n s and firms in developing countries  A,B  design  and  performance  data  art.  D e v e l o p and p r o m u l g a t e s t a n d a r d s by w h i c h m a n u f a c t u r e r s c a n r e p o r t by w h i c h u s e r s c a n j u d g e s u i t a b i l i t y t o v a r i o u s a p p l i c a t i o n s .  World Bank, 1981: Mobilizing Renewable Energy Technolocjy in Developing Countries: Strengthening Local Capabilities a n d Kesearcn. July, p.j^a.  should fill t h e s e gaps  for Information and Standardization  performance data,  and  criteria  TABLE 3 . 2 TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE USE OF FUELS DERIVED FROM BIOMASS  ForMS of Energy  Technology  Major Technological Gaps  Hho S h o u l d F i l l These Gaps  MediuM t e m p e r a t u r e h e a t <100-300 d e g . D (cooking)  Cooking s t o r e s  L o c a l a d a p t a t i o n and fabrication  Developing country l a b o r a t o r i e s , extension and a r t i s a n t r a i n i n g services, private organizations  High t e n p e r a t u r e h e a t <above 300 deg.C)  D i r e c t coHbustion  None  Mechanical s h a f t  Internal engine  More e f f i c i e n t a l c o h o l powered e n g i n e s : adaptation o f diesel engines t o bionassbased f u e l s  power  conbustion  Pedal power  Deuelopnent and assessment of a l t e r n a t i v e designs  Needs f o r I n f o r n a t i o n and S t a n d a r d i z a t i o n  fl, B, C  B  Industrial  sector i n  fl, B  d e v e l o p e d and M o r e  advanced d e v e l o p i n g countries  C  National l a b o r a t o r i e s , r u r a l extension bodies  D r a f t aniH-al power  Notes:  Source:  fl.  C  Develop agreed Methodology f o r e v a l u a t i o n bg u s e r s ; encourage exchange o f d e s i g n and p e r f o r n a n c e d a t a anong w o r k e r s i n d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s ; review s t a t e o f t h e a r t .  B.  D e v e l o p and p r o M u l g a t e s t a n d a r d s by w h i c h M a n u f a c t u r e r s o r f a b r i c a t o r s suitability c r i t e r i a f o r Most i n p o r t a n t i M p l i c a t i o n s .  can report  C.  R e k i n d l e interest in h i t h e r t o neglected t e c h n o l o g y , e . g . , by e d u c a t i o n a l grants o r demonstrations.  perforwance d a t a ,  Materials, c o n f e r e n c e s ,  including  snail research  w o r l d Bank, 1 9 8 1 : M o b i l i z i n g Renewable Energy Technology i n D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s : S t r e n g t h e n i n g L o c a l and R e s e a r c h . J u l y , p. 3 4 a .  Capabilities  73 TABLE  3.3  MAJOR TECHNOLOGIES FOR USE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES FOR THE PRODUCTION OF HEAT, MECHANICAL, AND E L E C T R I C A L ENERGY Form o f Energy  Technology  Major  Solar Collectors Flat Plate  Heat  Mechanical S h a f t Power  Electricity Generation  Design and m a t e r i a l s improvement  Solar crop drying  L o c a l a d a p t a t i o n and manufacture  Solar cookers  Low c o s t heat s t o r a g e and t r a n s m i s s i o n  Solar  Research on u n l i m i t e d ponds, c o n t r o l o f wind e f f e c t s , l o c a l a d a p t a t i o n and fabrication L o c a l manufacture  ponds  Small  Hydro  Generators  Source:  Reliable performance data; comparative e v a l u a t i o n and improvement o f t r a d i t i o n a l designs Local adaptation and m a n u f a c t u r e  Develop and t e s t equipment  Photovoltaic  Notes:  L o c a l A d a p t a t i o n and manufacture  Focusing  Commercial WindPumpers S a i l Windmills  Wind  Technological Gaps  Cost r e d u c t i o n i n c e l l s and "balance of system" c o s t s ; encouragement o f a p p l i c a t i o n s where market i n c e n t i v e s are l i m i t e d  Who S h o u l d F i l l T h e s e Gaps  Needs F o r Information And Standardization  Developing, c o u n t r y l a b s and i n d u s t r i a l sector Developed c o u n t r y labs and i n d u s t r i a l sector Developing c o u n t r y l a b s and i n d u s t r i a l sector Labs and p r i v a t e organizations i n developed and developing countries Developing c o u n t r y i n d u s t r i a l and p u b l i c sector labs Developing industrial  A, B B A, B A  A,C  country sector  A, B  Labs and p r i v a t e organizations i n developed and developing countries  A,C  Developing country i n d u s t r i a l sector and government agencies Developed c o u n t r y i n d u s t r i a l sector Developed c o u n t r y i n d u s t r i a l sector  A, B  A,B  C  B,C  A.  Develop agreed methodology f o r e v a l u a t i o n by u s e r s ; encourage exchange o f d e s i g n and performance data among workers i n d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s ; review s t a t e o f the art.  B.  Develop and promulgate standards by which manufacturers can r e p o r t performance data, i n c l u d i n g s u i t a b i l i t y c r i t e r i a f o r most important a p p l i c a t i o n s .  C.  Generate performance demonstrations.  a.  When technology nears techno-econoraic  b.  For s p e c i f i c a p p l i c a t i o n s f o r which p r i v a t e investment inadequate.  data  by i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y m a n a g e d o r c o o r d i n a t e d  field  feasibility.  World Bank, 1981. M o b i l i z i n g Renewable Energy Technology S t r e n g t h e n i n g L o c a l C a p a b i l i t i e s and Research?  i s likely  t o be  i n Developing C o u n t r i e s : J u l y , p.36a.  74 higher energy content.  For example, g a s o l i n e s u b s t i t u t e s can  p r o d u c e d f r o m b i o m a s s by sugars  f e r m e n t a t i o n and  t o p r o d u c e e t h a n o l , by t h e g a s i f i c a t i o n and  o f wood t o p r o d u c e m e t h a n o l , and crop  r e s i d u e s t o p r o d u c e gas  synthetic  by  (World  reasons:  p o t e n t i a l l y a b u n d a n t and  the process  Bank, 1 9 8 1 b ) .  a v e r s a t i l e energy source;  (World  f o r the  biomass i s a  low p o l l u t i n g i m p u r i t i e s from biomass c o u l d  large scale i n d u s t r i a l processes, use  of  is  the waste d i s p o s a l problem; biomass f u e l s can  for local  and  Production  t h e amount o f r e s o u r c e s  of s y n t h e t i c f u e l p r o d u c t i o n  produced through scale  liquefaction  t h e p y r o l y s i s o f wood  r e n e w a b l e r e s o u r c e ; b i o m a s s e n e r g y has  minimize  of p l a n t  f u e l s f r o m b i o m a s s i s c l a i m e d t o be a t t r a c t i v e  following general  and  distillation  be  be  o r on a s m a l l  Bank, 1981b; Rahmer, 1979;  Tolba,  1978) . Similarly, electricity  may  be g e n e r a t e d  hydro i n s t a l l a t i o n s or from a system combining from s o l a r  thermal p l a n t s .  E l e c t r i c i t y may  f r o m s o l a r e n e r g y by p h o t o v o l t a i c c e l l s and s c a l e wind e l e c t r i c new  conversion  systems.  via small-scale thermal  a l s o be by  Among t h e w i d e r a n g e o f  i m p r o v e d wood s t o v e s a r e t h e most commonly p r o p o s e d use  generated  s m a l l or l a r g e  e n e r g y o p t i o n s so f a r d i s c u s s e d , s o l a r c o o k e r s ,  energy t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r household  biogas,  i n the d e v e l o p i n g  a p p l i c a t i o n of such  t e c h o l o g i e s has  been d i s c u s s e d e x t e n s i v e l y i n numerous  Solar cookers, and  b i o g a s and  economically  r e n e w a b l e , and  energy p o l i c y  a l t e r n a t e new  i n the developing  i n v o l v e t h e use  l o c a l i s e d energy r e s o u r c e s .  of  world.  energy  i m p r o v e d wood s t o v e s a r e  f e a s i b l e , and  and  alternative  D e v e l o p m e n t and  l i t e r a t u r e concerning  energy  world.  technically cheap,  Despite  such  virtues  75 and t h e w i d e  r a n g e o f p o p u l a r a t t e n t i o n w h i c h t h e new  s u p p l y o p t i o n s have g a i n e d i n c o n t e m p o r a r y  energy  literature,  wide-  s c a l e use of such t e c h n o l o g i e s has not taken p l a c e i n t h e developing world.  As W i l k i n s o n ( 1 9 8 4 : 3 0 6 ) p o i n t s o u t ,  W h i l e t h e r e a r e numerous a t t e m p t s a t p r o v i d i n g a l t e r n a t e energy s u p p l i e s from domestic renewable s o u r c e s ..., t h e r e . i s l i t t l e e v i d e n c e t h a t s u c h a l t e r n a t e energy sources a r e r e p l a c i n g imported f u e l s Given t h i s s i t u a t i o n  i t i s appropriate to explore possible  explanations f o r this proposed  3.2  new e n e r g y  l a c k o f p u b l i c a c c e p t a n c e o f commonly  technologies.  Problems And O b s t a c l e s A s s o c i a t e d W i t h A c c e p t a n c e Of A l t e r n a t e New E n e r g y One o f t h e m a j o r  Public  Supply  Options  shortcomings of c u r r e n t r e s e a r c h  c o n c e r n i n g energy o p t i o n s f o r t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i s t h a t being conducted  i n environments  outcome h a v e l i t t l e  ...  i t is  where t h o s e most a f f e c t e d by t h e  o r no i n p u t .  As t h e W o r l d Bank  (1981b:15)  notes, Awareness of t h e p o t e n t i a l importance of renewable energy t e c h n o l o g y i s v e r y low R e s e a r c h , development, and d e m o n s t r a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s are c o n f i n e d t o l a b o r a t o r i e s , f r e q u e n t l y i n u n i v e r s i t i e s , which a r e i s o l a t e d from p o t e n t i a l users. Given t h i s current  situation,  i t i s n o t s u r p r i s i n g t h a t much o f t h e  r e s e a r c h h a s c o n c e n t r a t e d on t h e t e c h n o l o g i c a l  feasibility  and economic  and M a t t h e w s (1979)  viability  of these o p t i o n s .  p o i n t o u t , h o w e v e r , t h e r e a r e many o t h e r  a s p e c t s o f e n e r g y u s e c h o i c e s w h i c h must be e x a m i n e d . and M o r g a n  As B a c h  As Moss  (1981:175) n o t e ,  S o c i a l a n d p r e s t i g e f a c t o r s c a n o f t e n be a s i m p o r t a n t a s e c o n o m i c , e . g . , t h e r e a r e many c a s e s o f p e o p l e i n t h e T h i r d W o r l d p r e f e r r i n g an e l e c t r i c s t o v e o r a  76 butane gas s t o v e d e s p i t e v e r y h i g h c o s t s because of p r e s t i g e , o r i n s i s t i n g on a c o n c r e t e wood stove, i n s t e a d o f a s t o v e made o f c l a y b e c a u s e t h e m a t e r i a l i s more modern. Eden e t a l . ( 1 9 8 1 : 3 6 5 ) p o i n t o u t t h a t , The p e r c e i v e d c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s o f a f o r m o f s u p p l y may d i f f e r b e t w e e n d i f f e r e n t c o n s u m e r s a n d d e c i s i o n m a k e r s . T h u s , a g o v e r n m e n t i n a non-OPEC d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y may be t r y i n g t o d i s c o u r a g e t h e u s e o f o i l b e c a u s e o f t h e p r e s s u r e o i l i m p o r t s impose on f o r e i g n e x c h a n g e r e s o u r c e s , w h i l e many c o n s u m e r s w i t h i n t h e country continue to f i n d o i l a t t r a c t i v e i n r e l a t i o n to the c o s t s they i n c u r . Social costs are d i f f i c u l t t o e s t i m a t e a n d c a n l e a d t o u n e x p e c t e d r e j e c t i o n o f new technology and supply systems. However, w h i l e t h e s e and o t h e r  researchers recognize that  choice  or i n t r i n s i c  i s i n f l u e n c e d by s o c i a l  factors,  user  these  f a c t o r s a r e viewed as c o n s t r a i n t s t o the d i f f u s i o n of i n n o v a t i o n r a t h e r than as important initiation  f a c t o r s t o be c o n s i d e r e d a t t h e  of r e s e a r c h .  A f u r t h e r d e f i c i e n c y of c u r r e n t r e s e a r c h concerning  energy  p o l i c y o p t i o n s f o r developing c o u n t r i e s r e l a t e s t o the l a c k of a t t e n t i o n paid to the process technology.  energy  E n e r g y o p t i o n s a r e commonly p r o p o s e d a n d d i s c u s s e d  with reference t o r u r a l areas it  o f d i f f u s i o n o f new  seems u n l i k e l y  of developing c o u n t r i e s .  that developing c o u n t r i e s are prepared  However, to  embark on r e g i o n a l e n e r g y p o l i c y p l a n n i n g when, u n t i l r e c e n t l y , most o f t h e s e c o u n t r i e s d i d n o t h a v e i n s t i t u t i o n s o r p l a n s f o r a n a t i o n a l energy p o l i c y little  ( S m i l and Knowland, 1981).  In addition,  i s known a b o u t t h e r o l e o f t h o s e members o f r u r a l  f a m i l i e s who work i n u r b a n c e n t r e s a n d who a r e p e r h a p s responsible other  f o r i n t r o d u c i n g new t e c h n o l o g i e s a n d i n n o v a t i o n s t o  f a m i l y members.  Perhaps a wider  a l t e r n a t i v e s c o u l d be r e a l i z e d t h r o u g h  d i f f u s i o n of energy introduction into  urban  77 centres, areas.  from which such  technology  Such a p o s s i b i l i t y  growth of similar  may  be  spread  to  i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the p a t t e r n of  i n n o v a t i o n s i n the areas  of f a s h i o n , m u s i c , dance,  s o c i a l phenomena, a s w e l l a s of n o n t r a d i t i o n a l  t e c h n o l o g i e s such as explored through  kerosene stoves.  an e x a m i n a t i o n  i n each d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y . factors governing  f u e l use  be  of the s o c i a l c o n t e x t  of  I t i s a l s o necessary c h o i c e s and  themselves.  from  I t may  f o r e x a m p l e , t h a t t h e o f t e n - c i t e d v i r t u e s of t h e new t e c h n o l o g i e s by e n e r g y e x p e r t s a r e n o t  govern the l o c a l people's may  a l s o be  found  technological for or  that although  The  the  be  found,  energy  preferences.  p r i c e per u n i t of energy important  enter  and  i n t o the d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g  social process.  above c o n s i d e r a t i o n s d i c t a t e t h a t p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n  v a l u e s may  be of p a r a m o u n t i m p o r t a n c e  a l t e r n a t i v e energy p o l i c i e s t h a t can  3.2.1  The If  R o l e Of  Public  they are d i r e c t e d ,  and  The  acceptance.  results  p r e f e r e n c e s of the s o c i e t y a t  i t i s necessary  to determine  (1959),  and  (1963) a d h e r e s t o a s t r o n g b e l i e f  to  i n the  Braybrooke in  which  the extent  " r a t i o n a l " or s y n o p t i c model i d e n t i f i e d  p l a n n i n g l i t e r a t u r e by L i n d b l o m Lindblom  determine  knowledge are t o y i e l d  w h i c h members o f t h a t s o c i e t y s h o u l d p a r t i c i p a t e research.  or  Participation  researchers' s k i l l s  w h i c h m a t c h t h e v a l u e s and  i n e f f o r t s to gain p u b l i c  It  considerations  p r e f e r e n c e s , a wide range of o t h e r  f a c t o r s do  the  the ones t h a t  c h o i c e s and  f e a s i b i l i t y are n a t u r a l l y  f u e l c h o i c e s and intrinsic  f u e l use  energy  to explore  preferences  and  energy  T h i s i s s u e may  p o i n t o f v i e w of t h e l o c a l p e o p l e  supply  rural  i n the and  technology.  78 Modern s o c i a l  t h e o r i s t s who  include Marshall their point makers  belong to t h i s school  Dimock, A r t h u r  Smithies,  and  of  thought  Timbergin.  o f v i e w , as e x p r e s s e d by K i l l i c k  In  (1976:170), p o l i c y  are, ... composed of p u b l i c s p i r i t e d , k n o w l e d g e a b l e , and r o l e - o r i e n t e d p o l i t i c i a n s ; c l e a r and u n i t e d i n t h e i r o b j e c t i v e s ; choosing those p o l i c i e s which w i l l achieve o p t i m a l r e s u l t s f o r t h e n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t ...  The  assumption i s that  the  f a c e t s of  skilled  the p e o p l e ' s needs or  o b j e c t i v e r a t i o n a l b a s i s , and should  be  b a s e d on  perspective  f a c t , not  o p e r a t e s on  a n a l y s i s ; c e r t a i n other should  b e a r on  the  arguments a g a i n s t  the  are able  to c a l c u l a t e a l l  i n t e r e s t s on  make t h e  a  (Hyman, 1 9 8 0 ) .  b a s i s o f t e c h n i c a l and  intrinsic  purely  correct decisions; policy  public opinion  d e c i s i o n s are  significance distorted.  or s o c i a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s overlooked  or  p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n , one According  t h i s view b e l i e v e  This  economic that  their  T h i s a p p r o a c h makes a number  would l e a d to i n e f f i c i e n c y . p r o p o n e n t s of  experts  of  of w h i c h i s t h a t i t  t o Orr  (1981:328),  that,  Mass i n v o l v e m e n t w o u l d ... o v e r b u r d e n t h e m a c h i n e r y o f g o v e r n m e n t w i t h e x c e s s i v e demands. F u r t h e r , i t w o u l d lower the q u a l i t y of p u b l i c d e c i s i o n s because the masses l a c k t h e k n o w l e d g e e s s e n t i a l f o r i n f o r m e d o p i n i o n on most i s s u e s . This  a u t h o r g o e s on  t o say  that,  [ a n o t h e r ] argument a g a i n s t e x t e n d i n g p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s t h a t many p o l i c y i s s u e s — e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e c o n c e r n i n g t e c h n o l o g y — a r e too complex f o r the p u b l i c . Issues i n v o l v i n g h i g h l y t e c h n i c a l t r a d e o f f s r e q u i r e the s p e c i a l i z e d knowledge of p o l i c y a n a l y s t s , s c i e n t i s t s , and t e c h n o l o g i s t s so t h a t d e m o c r a c y and e x p e r t i s e work at cross purposes. (pp. 3 2 9 - 3 3 0 ) . A s e c o n d a r g u m e n t i s b a s e d on provides  the  assumption that  the  market  t h e means f o r e x p r e s s i n g  s o c i e t a l values  and  for  estimating  b e n e f i t s and  costs  of p o l i c y a c t i o n s .  This  involves  79 t h e use o f m a r k e t  p r i c e s or s i m u l a t e d market  i n t a n g i b l e s or s a l i e n t (1982:161), n o t t o be  values f o r the  f a c t o r s o r , i n t h e w o r d s o f Copp and  " t o eschew i n t h e name o f r a t i o n a l i t y , what seems  objective".  Critics overemphasis  of the r a t i o n a l model p o i n t out t h a t on s p e c i a l i z e d  knowledge  and  the  science, which  t h i s approach, l e a d s t o the e v e n t u a l e x p u l s i o n of the citizen  from the p o l i c y arena  B r a y b r o o k e , 1963; Marcuse,  Levy  1964;  Etzioni,  ( O r r , 1981; L i n d b l o m  1968;  Habermas, 1970;  sees the r a t i o n a l i t y  Dye,  1980).  non-expert  and  1972; D a v i d o f f ,  Forester,  shapes  1965;  Habermas  of s c i e n c e as t h e " r a t i o n a l i t y  (1970)  of  d o m i n a t i o n " w h i c h l e a d s i n e v i t a b l y t o t h e c o a l e s e n c e o f power i n a technical-administrative elite  and t o a p e r v a s i v e t e c h n o c r a t i c  ideology d i s g u i s i n g p r a c t i c a l problems  ( O r r , 1981).  A f u r t h e r c r i t i c i s m o f t h e r a t i o n a l and t e c h n i c a l l y approach Critics  r e l a t e s t o t h e " v a l u e n e u t r a l i t y " c l a i m of t h e  actors.  argue t h a t , t o the c o n t r a r y , s p e c i a l i z e d a n a l y s t s  strongly  i n f l u e n c e d by t h e i r  self  interests.  With  notes  are  particular  r e f e r e n c e t o energy r e s e a r c h f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , (1982:74)  driven  French  that,  Our t e n d e n c y i n e s t i m a t i n g ... v a l u e s i s t o b e n d them i n f a v o u r of the t e c h n o l o g i e s under r e v i e w . In the a b s e n c e o f l o c a l d a t a , f o r e x a m p l e , we t e n d t o e x t r a c t numbers f r o m o u r own r e a l i t y f o r p u r p o s e s o f a n a l y s i s . I n key i n s t a n c e s ... o u r numbers w i l l be s y s t e m a t i c a l l y more f a v o u r a b l e t o new t e c h n o l o g i e s t h a n w o u l d l o c a l values. The p r o b l e m i s compounded by t h e f a c t t h a t t h e people c a r r y i n g out such a n a l y s i s ( m a n u f a c t u r e r s , c o n s u l t a n t s , energy b u r e a u c r a t s ) o f t e n have a s t r o n g v e s t e d i n t e r e s t i n showing t h a t the systems a r e sound. T o g e t h e r , t h e s e d i s t o r t i n g f o r c e s can e a s i l y encourage us t o s u p p o r t s y s t e m s w i t h no p r o s p e c t s f o r s u c c e s s i n the r e a l w o r l d . Given such o b v i o u s l i m i t a t i o n s ,  s p e c i a l i s t s cannot o p t i m i z e or  80 maximize p u b l i c v a l u e s , but can  only  "satisfice"  available choice without  client  effectively  i n the view of H e r b e r t  o r make t h e o b v i o u s and  they  consider  participation,  most  most s a t i s f y i n g . the a n a l y s t  Simon readily  In other  i s not  capable  embracing a l l r e l e v a n t f a c t o r s bearing  and  making the best  The  p o l i c y c h o s e n may  s e l e c t i o n from p o l i c y o p t i o n be doomed t o f a i l  (1965)  on  words, of  decisions  alternatives.  because of  the  experiential divide. Friedman analytical, symbolic  (1973) v i e w s e x p e r t i s e s k i l l s  e m p i r i c a l , and  historical  r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s of  as p a r t i a l  reality.  To  values, p r i o r i t i e s ,  k n o w l e d g e o f t h e c o n t e x t , and (1981:330) a g r e e s t h a t for  greater  s t r i k e and  be  norms,  a balance  mere  intimate  judgements.  no q u e s t i o n  e x p e r t i s e i n the p o l i c y - m a k i n g maintain  and  experienced  feasibility  "There can  are  be c o m p l e t e , e x p e r t i s e  s k i l l s must be c o m b i n e d w i t h t h e c l i e n t ' s knowledge, expressed  which  Orr  about the  process."  We  need  must  between p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n  and  the need f o r s p e c i a l i z e d knowledge. Further  c r i t i c i s m of the  strong confidence c o s t s and  r a t i o n a l model c e n t r e s a r o u n d i t s  i n the market mechanism f o r the e s t i m a t i o n  benefits.  The  b a s i c argument a g a i n s t  t h a t , c o n t r a r y to the b e l i e f r e g i s t e r s the preferences  t h a t the  of the  c i t i z e n s a r e c o n s t r a i n e d by  their  t h i s approach i s  f r e e market mechanism  s o c i e t y , the p r e f e r e n c e s budgets, which are  income d i s t r i b u t i o n p a t t e r n s .  w o r d s , an  be  engaging  in certain  b e c a u s e o f n e c e s s i t y r a t h e r t h a n a s an  expression  As  out,  Krutilla  and  Haigh  (1978:402) p o i n t  of  in turn  f u n c t i o n of the e x i s t i n g i n d i v i d u a l may  of  In  the a  other  preferences of  preference.  81 S u b m i t t i n g ... p l a n s t o t h e g e n e r a l p u b l i c f o r a p p r o v a l , where e v e r y p a r t i c i p a n t ' s v i e w i s w e i g h e d by h i s v o t e a n d n o t h i s p u r c h a s i n g p o w e r , i s e q u i v a l e n t t o h a v i n g an expression of preferences f o r resource s e r v i c e s u n c o n s t r a i n e d by income c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . U n l i k e those determination  who a r g u e a g a i n s t p u b l i c i n v o l v e m e n t  of p o l i c y ,  social  scientists  i n the  such as M a k h i j a n i  (1981:16) a r e of t h e o p i n i o n t h a t , Human d e v e l o p m e n t r e q u i r e s an e d u c a t i o n a l s y s t e m i n w h i c h s e g m e n t s o f s o c i e t y grow t o g e t h e r , n o t a u n i l a t e r a l d i c t a t i o n t o t h e p o o r by t h e e l i t e . Ojo  (1981:4) p r o v i d e s  strong support  forpublic participation  when he p o i n t s o u t t h a t , Even i f academic r e s e a r c h e r s a r e u n a b l e t o r e s p o n d f u l l y t o what may be d e s c r i b e d a s t h e l o c a l e x p e c t a t i o n s o f t h e p e o p l e , i t seems t o t h e a u t h o r t h a t t h e y s h o u l d n o t be unaware o f t h e s a l i e n t i s s u e s i n s u c h e x p e c t a t i o n s . In f a c t t h e y s h o u l d , where n e c e s s a r y , go o u t o f t h e i r way t o i d e n t i f y t h e s e e x p e c t a t i o n s e s p e c i a l l y where t h e y are being m a n i f e s t l y expressed. By s o d o i n g t h e y may r e f l e c t upon a f u n d a m e n t a l p r o b l e m n o t u s u a l l y c o n s i d e r e d by r e s e a r c h w o r k e r s a n d p o l i c y m a k e r s i n t h i s f i e l d , namely t h e gap between t h e e x p e c t a t i o n s o f t h e l o c a l p o p u l a t i o n a n d t h o s e o f t h e s c h o l a r s who a r e engaged i n s t u d i e s i n t e n d e d t o c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e s o c i o economic t r a n s f o r m a t i o n of a r e g i o n . I n d e e d , a s O r r (1981:333) a s s e r t s , P a r t i c i p a t i o n ... r a i s e s t h e l e v e l o f k n o w l e d g e a b o u t p u b l i c a f f a i r s , expands t h e sense o f community, t o p u b l i c needs. One o f t h e a r g u m e n t s u s e d by t h o s e technologies  f o rdeveloping  p r o m o t i n g new e n e r g y  c o u n t r i e s i s t h a t because they a r e  s m a l l s c a l e , and r e q u i r e i n p u t s of d i f f u s e adoption  of these  alternatives will  e g a l i t a r i a n and p a r t i c i p a t o r y tehnology  i s regarded  sustainable, and  catalyze a decentralized,  society.  New e n e r g y  resource  a s a l e v e r t o move s o c i e t y t o w a r d s a more  i f less extravagant  participation  raw m a t e r i a l s , t h e  (Orr, 1981).  l e v e l while enhancing I r o n i c a l l y , experience  equity w i t h new  82 e n e r g y r e s o u r c e p o l i c y o p t i o n s shows t h a t t h e d e t e r m i n a t i o n e v a l u a t i o n o f commonly p r o p o s e d new without  b e n e f i t of  p o l i c i e s are p o i n t out  e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s i s made  i n p u t from the l o c a l people  intended  to serve.  and  that  these  Brokensha e t a l . (1983:100)  that,  U n t i l r e c e n t l y , most d e v e l o p m e n t o f f i c i a l s and r e s e a r c h e r s b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e p e a s a n t had n o t h i n g t o t e a c h and e v e r y t h i n g t o l e a r n . To a l a r g e e x t e n t , t h i s a t t i t u d e s t i l l p r e v a i l s i n many c i r c l e s ' . T h i s has  been t h e s i t u a t i o n , w h e t h e r t h e r e s e a r c h i s b e i n g  c a r r i e d out w i t h i n or o u t s i d e of the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y . and  Morgan  (1981:190) suggest  Moss  that,  When we w r i t e o f " R e s e a r c h and D e v e l o p m e n t " a s t h o u g h t h e y were t o be u n d e r s t o o d i n a s i n g l e d e s i g n f o r l e a r n i n g and a c t i o n , we a r e a p t t o f o r g e t t h a t e v e n a t t h e s u p p o s e d l y n a t i o n a l l e v e l , p r e s e n t methods and o r g a n i z a t i o n s may t e n d t o s e t t h e s e two a c t i v i t i e s a t two d i f f e r e n t s c a l e s , m a k i n g t h e i n t e r c h a n g e o f i d e a s b e t w e e n them d i f f i c u l t . E v e n t h o u g h some a g e n c i e s  correctly  insist  t h a t the  done w i t h i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y , t h a t i n i t s e l f to ensure that researchers are people.  t o f o c u s on  i n v o l v e d , informed  of r e s e a r c h i n s t r u m e n t s  enough the  benefit  research  which i n v o l v e d i r e c t  communication w i t h the s u b j e c t s , perhaps through interviews.  be  historical  on o b s e r v a t i o n s r e p o r t e d w i t h o u t  o f e x p l a n a t i o n by t h e p e o p l e r e q u i r e s t h e use  i s not  i n t o u c h w i t h the needs of  Whereas c u r r e n t r e s e a r c h t e n d s  o r t r e n d a n a l y s i s and  research  Brokensha e t a l . (1983:100) note  personal  that,  Many s t u d i e s h a v e shown ... t h a t l o c a l p e o p l e o f t e n p o s s e s s c o n s i d e r a b l e k n o w l e d g e a b o u t r e s o u r c e s and t h e i r e f f e c t i v e management and u t i l i z a t i o n . This k n o w l e d g e , t h e c u m u l a t i o n of y e a r s o f e x p e r i e n c e , i s a c r u c i a l component o f l o c a l f u e l s y s t e m s , and t h e r e f o r e c o n s t i t u t e s an i m p o r t a n t a r e a o f k n o w l e d g e t h a t s h o u l d be a c q u i r e d by r e s p o n s i b l e o f f i c i a l s . Developing  c o u n t r i e s a r e commonly p e r c e i v e d a s b e i n g  short  83  of t h e e x p e r t i s e needed t o e v a l u a t e and e x p l o i t resources.  The W o r l d Bank ( 1 9 8 0 a ) ,  t h e s e c o u n t r i e s need t o s e l e c t  f o r example, a s s e r t s t h a t  from and adapt t o t h e i r  technologies that are being developed countries.  renewable energy  needs,  i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d  This raises questions concerning  the v a l i d i t y  of.the  r e p o r t e d a d v a n t a g e s p u t f o r t h by p r o m o t e r s o f v a r i o u s alternatives, imports,  such  as t h e i r p o t e n t i a l  f o r the r e d u c t i o n of  f o r i n c r e a s e d s e l f - r e l i a n c e , and f o r l o c a l  participation  or c o n t r o l .  Moss a n d Morgan  (1981:203)  note  that,  M o s t r e s e a r c h i n t o new f o r m s o f e n e r g y p r o d u c t i o n a n d use, i n c l u d i n g the development of i n t e r m e d i a t e or a p p r o p r i a t e t e c h n o l o g y , i s b e i n g done i n t h e i n d u s t r i a l countries. Thus t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f i n t e r m e d i a t e t e c h n o l o g y , d e s p i t e t h e i n t e n t i o n s o f t h o s e who c o n c e i v e i t a s an a t t e m p t t o p r o v i d e s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y i n t h e T h i r d W o r l d , may c o n t i n u e t h e t e c h n o l o g i c a l d e p e n d e n c e o f t h e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s on t h e i n d u s t r i a l n a t i o n s , a n d may s t i l l f a c i l i t a t e , e v e n a t the s m a l l - s c a l e l e v e l , t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n of i n a p p r o p r i a t e d e v i c e s and t e c h n i q u e s . Participation  of the people  development of a l t e r n a t i v e localized  of the developing c o u n t r i e s i n technologies i s restricted to  t e s t i n g and demonstration  of t h e equipment.  A s s u m i n g t h a t t h e new e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s a r e t e c h n i c a l l y and  economically  promoters v a l i d , these  f e a s i b l e , a n d t h e a d v a n t a g e s p u t f o r t h by t h e the important  q u e s t i o n remains as t o whether  are the q u a l i t i e s or c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s which w i l l  new t e c h n o l o g y with p i l o t  acceptable  to i t s intended users.  t e s t programs i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g  t h e y a r e n o t . As t h e W o r l d Bank  world  make t h e  Experiences suggest  that  (1981a:38) r e p o r t s ,  S o l a r c o o k e r s have been n o t o r i o u s f a i l u r e s i n numerous t r i a l s , l a r g e l y b e c a u s e o f t h e n a t u r a l r e s i s t e n c e o f p e o p l e t o c o o k i n t h e open i n t h e h e a t of t h e day, but a l s o because of o t h e r s o c i a l and t e c h n i c a l reasons. The n e e d f o r a t e c h n o l o g i c a l f i x to t h e problem of the i n c r e a s i n g c o s t of cooking f u e l  84 i s so p r e s s i n g t h a t t h e r e i s l i t t l e a l t e r n a t i v e b u t t o c o n t i n u e e f f o r t s t o d e s i g n a l o w - c o s t s y s t e m and to understand b e t t e r the o b s t a c l e s to i t s d i f f u s i o n . To be s u c c e s s f u l , t h e d e s i g n must be c o m p a t i b l e w i t h l o c a l c o o k i n g p r a c t i c e s and w i t h t h e c o m f o r t o f t h e c o o k , a s c o m p a t i b l e a s p o s s i b l e w i t h s o c i a l and c u l t u r a l norms ... Given  the  l o c a l people, and  f a c t t h a t the l a r g e m a j o r i t y of the c l i e n t s ,  a r e p o o r and  perhaps c u r r e n t l y  reliant  on  limited  u n s o p h i s t i c a t e d energy t e c h n o l o g i e s , r e s e a r c h e r s are slow  understand  the  important  r o l e of s o c i a l or  w h i c h shape a h o u s e h o l d ' s c h o i c e of tendency  i s t o adapt the people  d e s i g n i n g the technology  fuel.  intrinsic The  difficulties  prevailing  to the technology  rather  t o f i t t h e n e e d s , norms,  i n a c h i e v i n g l a r g e - s c a l e acceptance  commonly p r o p o s e d a l t e r n a t e e n e r g y o p t i o n s , s u c h cookers  and  to t h i s  l a c k of p r i o r  p r e f e r e n c e s and relevant  Current  and  use  as  solar  be  c o n s i d e r a t i o n of  of  attributed the  e x p e c t a t i o n s of the s o c i e t y , or of a l l the  factors  nontraditional  than  and  b i o g a s , d e s p i t e t h e i r a d v a n t a g e s , may k n o w l e d g e and  to  factors  e x p e c t a t i o n s of the s o c i e t y f o r which i t i s i n t e n d e d .  involved in i t s adoption  technologies.  d e t e r m i n a t i o n and  d e s i g n o f new  imply that other  m o d e s t y s h o u l d be  sense of need, t h i s  study  as r e n e w a b i l i t y or  Rather,  these  important  s h o u l d be c o m b i n e d w i t h t h o s e w h i c h t h e p e o p l e  and  the  e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s must  f a c t o r s such  ignored.  of t r a d i t i o n a l  In s t r e s s i n g t h a t  g o v e r n e d by t h e l o c a l p e o p l e ' s not  or  are  be does  ecological elements  seeking.  PART  TWO  CHAPTER 4 ENERGY I N N I G E R I A The  r o l e of energy  i n the N i g e r i a n n a t i o n a l  s y s t e m has become e s p e c i a l l y The  day-to-day  revenue  and  i n the l a s t  decade.  f l o w o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l o i l g e n e r a t e s enormous  i s accompanied  energy consumption demand.  significant  socio-economic  As Ngoka  by r e m a r k a b l e c h a n g e s i n t h e  p i c t u r e , b o t h i n k i n d and (1981:113) p o i n t s  s i z e of  domestic  energy  out,  A l t h o u g h N i g e r i a has r e m a i n e d a r e l a t i v e l y low energy consuming c o u n t r y f o r s e v e r a l decades, the advent of t h e o i l revenue i s b r i n g i n g about a r a p i d change i n our l e v e l of energy consumption. The c o u n t r y ' s o i l w e a l t h has r e f l e c t e d on t h e e a r n i n g power o f most N i g e r i a n s . The b u s i n e s s c o m m u n i t y h a s p r o s p e r e d , a n d p e o p l e i n p r i v a t e and p u b l i c employment received large salary increases. As a r e s u l t o f t h e s e i n c r e a s e d i n c o m e , [ s i c ] s e v e r a l p e o p l e a r e now i n a p o s i t i o n t o purchase energy consuming d e v i c e s such as airconditioners, televisions. [ s i c ] Sets cookers, cars, refrigerators etc. As s o c i a l and e c o n o m i c patterns  f a c t o r s g o v e r n i n g energy  use  i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s change, energy o p t i o n s chosen  by t h e i r c i t i z e n s become t h o s e u s e d  i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d .  T h i s p r o c e s s i s n o t u n i q u e t o N i g e r i a , a s n o t e d by Osakwe ( 1 9 8 2 : 7 ) when he s a y s  that,  The c h a n g e i n t h e p a t t e r n o f e n e r g y use w i t h i n t h e LDCs [ L e s s D e v e l o p e d C o u n t r i e s ] c l o s e l y f o l l o w s the trend i n the developed c o u n t r i e s . T h i s r e f l e c t s ... t o t a l d e p e n d e n c e o f t h e LDCs on t h e i m p o r t s o f m a c h i n e r y , a p p l i a n c e s , t r a n s p o r t equipment and t e c h n i c a l e x p e r t i s e f r o m t h e d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s , most o f w h i c h a r e b i a s e d t o w a r d s t h e use o f p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s e i t h e r d i r e c t l y o r t h r o u g h o i l - b a s e d e l e c t r i c power g e n e r a t i o n . Similarly,  Eden e t a l . ( 1 9 8 1 : 3 6 7 - 3 6 8 ) c o n c l u d e  85  that,  86  Most d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s have s t a r t e d mechanisation of i n d u s t r y and a g r i c u l t u r e , l e a d i n g to major s o c i a l change - urban m i g r a t i o n and more energy use i n households and f o r t r a n s p o r t , a s h i f t from noncommercial to commercial energy, a change i n the f u e l mix - which a l l b r i n g about an i n c r e a s e i n commercial energy consumption. At  the same time, N i g e r i a r e p r e s e n t s a major o i l producing and  e x p o r t i n g country which n e v e r t h e l e s s o f t e n experiences s i g n i f i c a n t domestic energy Ngoka, 1981). to  T h i s chapter reviews some of the i s s u e s  N i g e r i a s energy  4.1  shortages (Moss and Morgan, 1981; related  supply and use s i t u a t i o n .  Energy R e s o u r c e s , P r o d u c t i o n , And Consumption N i g e r i a possesses both n o n t r a d i t i o n a l and t r a d i t i o n a l  sources of energy.  N o n t r a d i t i o n a l sources i n c l u d e  n a t u r a l gas, c o a l , and h y d r o e l e c t r i c power. sources used predominantly  Nontraditional  i.«l«l'l  Petroleum  Traditional  i n c l u d e firewood and i t s d e r i v a t i v e ,  c h a r c o a l , as w e l l as d i r e c t  4.1.1  petroleum,  solar  radiation.  Energy  Resources  P r o d u c t i o n And E x p o r t s Over h a l f of N i g e r i a  (about 1 m i l l i o n km  2)  i s covered by  sedimentary b a s i n s p o s s i b l y c o n t a i n i n g o i l b e a r i n g r o c k s . P r e s e n t l y , most of the r i c h crude o i l f i e l d s are c o n c e n t r a t e d i n c o a s t a l regions known as the Niger d e l t a , and i t s o f f s h o r e area l e s s than 100 km from the A t l a n t i c Ocean.  The p r o s p e c t s of  f i n d i n g new o i l f i e l d s i n t h i s r e g i o n are s t i l l  good.  Quinlan  (1983a:42) notes t h a t , ... the Niger d e l t a area i s s t i l l  g i v i n g good r e s u l t s  87 a s an e x p l o r a t i o n p r o s p e c t . T h e r e were 28 o i l d i s c o v e r i e s and f o u r gas d u r i n g 1981, a c c o r d i n g t o p e t r o c o n s u l t a n t s , w h i l e t h e p r e v i o u s y e a r g a v e 20 o i l f i n d s and one g a s ; d e v e l o p m e n t d r i l l i n g r e s u l t e d i n a t l e a s t 104 o i l w e l l s and one gas w e l l d u r i n g 1981, a g a i n s t -91 o i l w e l l s and one gas w e l l i n 1980. However, w h i l e the o f f s h o r e N i g e r d e l t a t h e most p r o l i f i c  o i l producing  w e l l s are c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y  prospects  to  The  North  content  Sea  o i l i s l i g h t and  (Quinlan,  has  low  sulphur content, T h i s low  petroleum  can  be b l e n d e d  used i n c o u n t r i e s w h i c h have h i g h  standards,  i n order  l e v e l p r e s c r i b e d by  (Rahmer, 1 9 8 3 )  ultimately  1  b a r r e l s (132  This represents  recoverable resources  billion  16 p e r c e n t  i n A f r i c a , and  resources  (Rahmer,  s i n c e c o m m e r c i a l p r o d u c t i o n of crude  and  crude  to  the  S i m i l a r l y , crude  o i l p r o d u c t i o n are o f t e n the  estimated percent  significantly  o i l began i n 1958,  4.2.  of  1983).  o i l p r o d u c t i o n and  p r e s e n t , a s shown i n T a b l e  Gigajoules  of  1.2  have undergone marked changes between the p r e - o i l 1974  with  recoverable o i l  Crude o i l r e s e r v e s of N i g e r i a have i n c r e a s e d  4.1.  of  legislation.  recoverable world  in Table  sulphur  to reduce the sulphur content  resources at twenty-two b i l l i o n  total  similar  environmental  Recent e s t i m a t e s put N i g e r i a ' s u l t i m a t e l y  (GJ))  high  r e p r e s e n t s a d e c i s i v e advantage i n the marketing s i n c e the petroleum  of  1983a).  on t h e o t h e r h a n d , i s o f  o i l from the U n i t e d Kingdom.  Nigerian crude,  control  a s one  i n the w o r l d , the o i l  small in size  Crude o i l from the N i g e r d e l t a , quality.  i s regarded  as  export boom e r a  shown levels of  Sharp i n c r e a s e s i n  response  t o e x t e r n a l demands.  Rahmer's a c t u a l e s t i m a t e i s 3 b i l l i o n t o n n e s . T h i s has been c o n v e r t e d t o b a r r e l s o f o i l and t o j o u l e s u s i n g 7.3 b a r r e l s / t o n n e and 44 g i g a j o u l e s / t o n n e a s c o n v e r s i o n f a c t o r s . 1  88  TABLE 4.1 NIGERIAN PROVEN CRUDE O I L RESERVES 1961  Year  Billion  1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1 971 1972 1973 1 974 1975 1976 1 977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Source:  Barrels  0.3 0.4 0.5 1 .0 3.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 5.0 9.3 11.7 15.0 20.0 20.9 20.2 19.5 18.7 18.2 17.4 16.7  1983  Billion  Giqaioules  1 .8 2.4 3.0 6.0 18.0 18.0 21 .0 24.0 30.0 55.8 70.2 90.0 120.0 125.4 181.8 117.0 112.2 109.2 104.4 100.2  —  —  —  —  20.0 OPEC.  -  1980.  —  + 3.0 + 3.0 +100.0 +200.0 —  + 17.0 + 14.0 + 25.0 +86.0 +26.0 + 28.0 + 33.0 + 5.0 -3.0 -4.0 -4.0 -3.0 -4.0 -4.0 — —  120.0 Annual S t a t i s t i c a l  % Chanq  + 20.0 Bulletin.  Quilan. 1 9 8 3 a . " N i g e r i a O i l Revenue C r i s i s Petroleum Economist. February.  Vienna. Deepens."  TABLE 4.2 NIGERIA CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS 1961 - 1982 Production  Year  Million Barrels Per day  1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1970 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982  0.05 0.07 0.08 0.12 0.27 0.42 0.32 0.14 0.54 1.08 1.53 1.76 2.06 2.26 1.78 2.07 2.10 1.90 2.31 2.06 1.44 1.29  Sources:  Billions Gigajoules 0.30 0.42 0.48 0.72 1.63 2.51 1.92 0.85 3.24 6.51 9.81 10.54 12.34 13.56 10.68 12.01 12.60 11.40 13.86 12.36 8.64 7.74  Exports  Million Barrels 0.05 0.07 0.08 1.12 0.27 0.38 0.30 0.14 0.54 1.05 1.49 1.75 1.98 2.18 1.72 2.01 2.04 1.83 2.23 1.90 1.22 1.05  Million Gigajoules 0.30 0.42 0.48 0.72 1.63 2.28 1.80 0.85 3.24 6.30 8.94 10.50 11.88 13.08 10.32 12.06 12.24 10.98 13.38 11.40 7.32 6.30  Production Change  +40% +14% +50% +125% +56% -24% -56% +286% +100% +42% +15% +17% +10% -21% +16% +1% -10% +22% • -11% -30% -10%  Exports as % of Production 98% 100% 99% 99% 98% 90% 94% 99% 100% 97% 97% 99% 96% 96% 97% 97% 97% 96% 97% 92% 85% 81%  Production as % of proven Reserves 17% 18% 16% 12% 9% 14% 9% 4% 14% 16% 13% 12% 10% 11% 6% 11% 11% 10% 13% 12% N/A N/A  AMU. 1982a. Nigerian national petroleum corporation guarterly magazine. October to December Quinlan. 1983a. "Nigeria o i l revenue crisis deepens." Petroleum economist. February.  90 High production l e v e l s which  caused  i n 1974 were due t o t h e A r a b o i l embargo,  an i n c r e a s e d demand  f o r N i g e r i a n o i l by  c o u n t r i e s such as the U n i t e d S t a t e s , B r i t a i n , Western Europe. the c r i s i s  developed  and t h o s e i n  I n c r e a s e d p r o d u c t i o n i n 1979 was t h e r e s u l t o f  i n I r a n , a n d t h e d i s r u p t i o n o f o i l s u p p l y t o some  western  i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s which  decline  i n p r o d u c t i o n l e v e l s d u r i n g 1975 was due t o e c o n o m i c  recession demand  i n the developed  f o r imported  oil.  resulted.  c o u n t r i e s , which  The  sharp  decreased the  The d e c l i n e i n p r o d u c t i o n  levels  e x p e r i e n c e d c u r r e n t l y by N i g e r i a a r e due t o t h e g l o b a l o i l g l u t , a c c o m p a n i e d by t h e downward s l i d i n g  of o i l p r i c e s and t h e  continual  export market  to  l o s s o f some o f i t s t r a d i t i o n a l  c e r t a i n non-OPEC p r o d u c e r s  shares  such as B r i t a i n .  Over n i n e t y - f i v e p e r c e n t  of crude  o i l produced  in Nigeria  i s exported, w i t h recorded h i g h l e v e l s of e x p o r t s t o t a l l i n g billion  barrels  shown i n T a b l e  (3.2 b i l l i o n  G J ) f o r 1974 a n d a g a i n  i n 1979, a s  4.2.  Crude O i l E x p o r t  Market  The c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f c r u d e of  o i l fields  in coastal  regions  the country provides both advantages i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l  shipping charges  and t h e s e c u r i t y of e x p o r t s u p p l y  routes.  N i g e r i a e x p o r t s o i l t o a number o f c o u n t r i e s w i t h i n Europe, A s i a and A f r i c a . N i g e r i a n crude 1976 of  2.2  America,  In the past the l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of  o i l e x p o r t s went t o E u r o p e ( S c h a t z l ,  1980).  In  Europe's share dropped s i g n i f i c a n t l y , w h i l e the p r o p o r t i o n  exports t o America  mation  concerning  the l a r g e s t  jumped t o a b o u t 60 p e r c e n t .  1981 e x p o r t s  Recent  i n d i c a t e s that America  infor-  is still  i m p o r t e r o f N i g e r i a n o i l , a s shown i n T a b l e  4.3.  91 TABLE 4*3 NIGERIAN CRUDE OIL EXPORTS BY DESTINATION FOR 1981 Destination A m e r i c a n & West U.S.A. Argentina Brazil Uraguay Canar. I s l a n d s Bahamas Curacao Cayman I s l a n d s Virgin Islands A n t i l l e s Dutch  Total i n Million Barrels Indies  % of Total  150.03 1.15 11 .83 5.85 5.86 13.73 14.78 6.41 7.45 28.54  33.5 0.3 2.6 1.3 1 .3 3.1 3.3 1.4 1.7 6.4  Sub-Total Europe Netherlands Germany (West) Sweden France Norway Denmark Yugoslavia Romania U n i t e d Kingdom Portugal Italy Spain Belgium Austria Holland  245.63  54.9  Sub-Total Asia Japan Taiwan  180.10  40.2  6.23 3.15  1 .4 0.7  Sub-Total Africa Sierraleonne Ghana Ivory Coast Togo Senegal  9.38  2.0  1 .65 7.87 2.12 0.30 0.77  0.4 1 .8 0.5 0.1 0.2  Sub-Total GRAND TOTAL  12.71 447.82  Source:  52.74 26.12 9.83 40.29 0.48 4.26 3.00 5.90 1 .45 4.80 21.11 6.62 1 .88 0.68 0.86  Nigerian Petroleum Corporation. J a n u a r y - December 1 9 8 1 . L a g o s : Associates, pp. 35.  11.8 5.8 2.2 9.0 0.1 0.9 0.7 1 .3 0.3 1.1 4.7 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.2  2.8 100% 1 9 8 2 . A n n u a l Summary. J e r o m e l a i h o and  92 Domestic Oil Crude of  Consumption  Of P e t r o l e u m O i l  Refineries  o i l t o be consumed i s f i r s t  processed into a  p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s , from which v a r i o u s f u e l  s e l e c t e d t o meet a s p e c i f i c  end u s e .  N i g e r i a come f r o m r e f i n e r i e s w i t h i n  types are  P e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s used i n the c o u n t r y , as w e l l as  r e f i n e r i e s o u t s i d e the c o u n t r y , i n accordance w i t h petroleum p r o c e s s i n g arrangements. currently  external  located at Port Harcourt,  N i g e r i a n crude o i l i s a l s o r e f i n e d i n  c o u n t r i e s such as the U n i t e d S t a t e s , F r a n c e , B r a z i l , Antilles it  from  W i t h i n the country there are  three r e f i n e r i e s operating,  W a r r i , and K a d u n a .  variety  Curacoa,  ( D u t c h ) , N e t h e r l a n d s , and Bahamas, f r o m where some o f  i s s u b s e q u e n t l y i m p o r t e d by  Consumption  Nigeria.  Of P e t r o l e u m E n e r g y : Some M a j o r P o l i c y I s s u e s  V a r i o u s sources i n d i c a t e growth consumption  in Nigerian  of p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s (see T a b l e 4.4).  i s expected to continue.  Osakwe ( 1 9 8 2 : 9 )  domestic This trend  estimates that,  From e v e r y i n d i c a t i o n , i t w o u l d a p p e a r t h a t by t h e y e a r 2000, t h e N i g e r i a n Economy w i l l be c o n s u m i n g c l o s e t o Two M i l l i o n b a r r e l s o f C r u d e O i l p e r d a y . T h a t i s a b o u t a s much a s w o u l d be p r o d u c e d a t p r e s e n t b u t for the s o - c a l l e d o i l " g l u t " . I f by 2 0 0 0 , t h e Economy s t i l l d e p e n d s on p e t r o - d o l l a r s t o t h e e x t e n i t h a t i t d o e s a t p r e s e n t , t h e n i t w i l l mean a p r o d u c i i o n o f FOUR m i l l i o n BPD. I t i s d o u b t f u l whether the r e s e r v e s a t t h a t p o i n t can s u s t a i n t h i s l e v e l of p r o d u c t i o n (even a t S e c o n d a r y R e c o v e r y O p e r a t i o n s ) f o r any s i g n i f i c a n t l e n g t h of t i m e . To  s o l v e t h i s p r o b l e m , w r i t e r s s u c h a s Ngoka ( 1 9 8 1 : 1 1 4 ) s u g g e s t  the  need  f o r a m e a n i n g f u l c o n s e r v a t i o n p o l i c y t o be a d o p t e d  the  government,  and s u g g e s t  by  that,  ... t h e g o v e r n m e n t s h o u l d c o n t r o l o r r e d u c e t h e p r e s e n t r a t e of o i l p r o d u c t i o n . A programmed r e d u c t i o n o f a b o u t  T A B L E  4 . 4  DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION OF PETROLEUM ENERGY PRODUCTS IN NIGERIA  UNIT Liquefied Petroleum Gas  Thousand Litres  1975  1976  1977  1978  1979  1980  Million MJ.  Million MJ.  Million MJ.  Million MJ.  Million MJ.  Million MJ.  69.2  3 .1  15.5  0.7  Million Litres  21.8  765.2  13 .9  487.9  -26.5%  9.2  322.9  • -36.25!  % Change Motor S p i r i t : 5 Star  0.5  -78 X  % Change  Avation Spiric  11.4  -33.8%  Million Litres  57.5  2.6  8.5  298.4 -7.61%  41.9  1470.7  Million Litres  1904.9  66862.0  1647 .1  % Change Regular  57813 .2  Million Litres  658.7  23120.4  359.7  X Change  12625.5  78020.3 +35%  355.5  12478.1 -1.2%  -45.4%  9.5  333.5  +11.8%  352.8  2807.0  98525.7  +26.3%  342.5  12021.8  1238J.3  -3.7%  2999.2 105271.9 +6.S%  22.0  743.4  26093.3  539.8  18947.0 -27.4%  Million Litres  389.8  13682.0  314.0  11031.9 -19.4%  685.7  24068.1  +27.0%  343.8  12067 .4  +9.4%  827.9  29059.3  +20.7%  380.9  13369.6  +10.8%  46.8  2.1  7.2  252.7  -24.2%  80.1  Million  49.8  2.3  +6.4%  +49%  2811.5  -77%  3860.7 135510.5 +28.7%  6.2  217.f  -13.9%  38.0  1333.8  -51%  4794.3 16828.0 +24.2%  772.2  -93.8%  Million Litres  X Change •Aviation Turbines  2222.8  -13.5%  % Change Dual Purpose Kerosene: •Household  1.4  -45%  +806%  Z Change Premium  31.5  +404%  1981  880.0  30888.0  +6.3%  379.9  13334 .5  -0.3%  1036.6 36384.7 +17.8%  443.9  15580.9 -16.9%  1236.3 43394.1 +19.3%  526.2  18469.6  -18.5%  T A B L E . 4 . 4 D O M E S T I C  Automotive Caa O i l : •Cao O i l  Million Litres  C O N S U M P T I O N  1616.4 62554.7  O F I N  Million Litres  40.3  1559.6  201.8  Million Litres  347.7 14325.2  207 .4  Z Change  604.9  8544 .9  Million Litres  517.6 21325.1  464.1 19120.9 -10.31  230.3  41281.3  23409.5 +199.8Z  283.5  -40.4Z  Z Change  T o t a l l n B i l l i o n MJ  7809.7  E N E R G Y  +2.6Z  +400.7Z  X Change Low Pout  1066.7  -35.7Z  X Change Fuel O i l : High Pour  P E T R O L E U M N I G E R I A  1039.5 40228.7  Z Change Dleeel O i l  c o n t i n u e d  11680.2 -21.9Z  381.0  15697.2  P R O D U C T S  1319.7 51072.4  252.7 48479.5  +23.7X  -5.IX  808.0 31269.6  73B.O 26560.6  -33.6Z  -8.7X  285.9 11779.1  321.6 13249.9  +0.9Z  12.5X  506.4 20863.7  388.7  16014.4  -17.9Z  +32.9Z  -23.2X  230.1  219.0  268.3  162.3  -.1Z  -4.8Z  +22.5Z  -39.5X  SOURCES:  Federal o f f i c e of S t a t i s t i c s . 1981. Annual a b s t r a c t of s t a t i s t i c * . Lagos: Federal o f f i c e of S t a t i s t i c s p r i n t i n g u n i t , p. 84. Nigerian National Petroleum C o r p o r a t i o n . 1981 Annual smmary. January - December 1981 . Logas: Jeromellano and A s s o c i a t e s , p p . 44 - 45. Energy content of petroleum products were c a l c u l a t e d by m u l t i p l y i n g l i q u e f i e d petroleum gas by 4 5 . 2 . premlun 3 5 . 1 , A v i a t i o n gaa by 3 5 . 1 , Regular g a s o l i n e by 3 5 . 1 , premium gasoline by 3 4 . 4 , Auto d l e s e l by 38.6 and Fuel o i l by 4 1 . 2 . The energy content conversion f i g u r e s were taken from Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n l n Kenya's Modern S e c t o r : Progress, p o t e n t i a l and problems. I.ee Schlpper. Jack H o l l a n d e r , Hathew MilukaR, Joseph Alruma, Stephen Meyers w i t h Scott A. M o l l , Joy IHinkur l e y , John Jankowskl, ( a u t h o r s ) . Washington D . C : Resources f o r the F u t u r e . 1982. p. 75.  1537.4  59497.4  +22.7X  762.1  29493.3 -3.JX  255.8  10539.0 -20.5X  572.7  23595.2 +47.3X  188.9 +16.4Z  2125.6  82647.7  +38.9Z  500.0  19350.0  -34.4X  245.6  10118.7  -4.01  736.9  30360.3  +29.2X  221 .4 -17.20Z  95 50% of our p r e s e n t p r o d u c t i o n r a t e w i t h i n the next t e n y e a r s w i l l o b v i o u s l y be a hedge a g a i n s t f u t u r e e c o n o m i c d i f f i c u l t i e s i n t h e c o u n t r y . I t may be a r g u e d t h a t t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a l t e r n a t i v e e n e r g y s o u r c e s may r e d u c e t h e economic i m p o r t a n c e of o i l . Although the p o s s i b i l i t y o f t h i s h a p p e n i n g may n o t be r u l e d o u t c o m p l e t e l y i t i s however v e r y u n l i k e l y t h a t our f u t u r e g e n e r a t i o n w i l l n o t f i n d more e f f i c i e n t ways o f u t i l i z i n g o i l more e c o n o m i c a l l y t h a n most a l t e r n a t i v e e n e r g y s o u r c e s . W h i l e t h e importance of p r o p o s a l s such as t h i s cannot u n d e r e s t i m a t e d , they appear Schatzl states  t o be more i d e a l  than  be  practical.  ( 1 9 8 0 : 4 ) sums up t h e d i l e m m a f a c i n g t h e c o u n t r y when he that,  As f a r a s t h e f u t u r e u t i l i z a t i o n o f c r u d e o i l r e s o u r c e s i s c o n c e r n e d , the economic p o l i c y of the N i g e r i a n Government i s i n v o l v e d i n a c o n f l i c t of a i m s . On t h e one h a n d t h e e x p o r t o f c r u d e o i l c o u l d c r e a t e t h e c o n d i t i o n s f o r s e l f - s u s t a i n e d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h ; on t h e o t h e r h a n d e n o u g h e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s c o u l d be preserved to s a t i s f y i n the long-run the r a p i d l y g r o w i n g d o m e s t i c demand f o r e n e r g y . Marinho  (1978:142) c o n c u r s w i t h t h i s assessment  when he  says  that, Energy r e s o u r c e s [to the N i g e r i a n government] a r e not o n l y d i r e c t l y r e q u i r e d a s i n p u t s t o f u e l and s e r v i c e t h e economy, t h e y a r e i n f a c t t h e s o l e means o f e a r n i n g f o r e i g n exchange w i t h which they f i n a n c e development. U n l i k e i n most i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s where p r i m a r y e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s a r e d e v e l o p e d and u t i l i z e d a s i n p u t s f o r i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n and d o m e s t i c c o n s u m p t i o n a l o n e , e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s ... [ i n N i g e r i a ] r e p r e s e n t b o t h a means and an end o f p r o d u c t i o n . While these authors i d e n t i f y Nigeria  i s t o implement  petroleum e x p l o i t a t i o n ,  the problems  t o be r e s o l v e d i f  c o n s e r v a t i o n p o l i c i e s aimed  at  they a l s o p o i n t t o the l a c k of  reduced foresight  i n p a s t a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f t h e c o u n t r y ' s r e s o u r c e s ; t h e economy was  tailored  t o overdependence  on p e t r o d o l l a r s ,  n o n - o i l e x p o r t s were r e d u c e d t o a mere t r i c k l e . situation,  i t seems o b v i o u s t h a t N i g e r i a c a n n o t  and  traditional  Given  this  substantially  96 r e d u c e o i l e x p o r t s w i t h o u t a d i v e r s i f i e d economy n e c e s s a r y f o r the  g e n e r a t i o n of f o r e i g n exchange which  purchase  of the t e c h n o l o g i e s r e q u i r e d  c o u n t r y ' s socio-economic system.  i s e s s e n t i a l f o r the  f o r the f u n c t i o n i n g  In the meantime,  of the  opportunities  f o r more e f f i c i e n t  use of p e t r o l e u m energy w i t h i n t h e c o u n t r y  must be e x p l o r e d .  This,  information  i n t u r n , d e p e n d s on t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y  c o n c e r n i n g e x i s t i n g p a t t e r n s of p e t r o l e u m energy  by v a r i o u s s e c t o r s  the  Enerqy  p e r c e n t o f a l l p e t r o l e u m e n e r g y consumed i n  country i s accounted  f o r by t h e m a j o r  petroleum energy  u s e r s , namely t h e i n d u s t r y and c o n s t r u c t i o n transportation Of  T a b l e 4.5. sector of  final  sector  f i n a l petroleum energy  This demonstrates  consumption  the d i f f i c u l t y  in the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n  sector,  particularly  sector  The  industrial  together account  consumption  f o r about  sector  and  1977  to  no  1980. foro i l  road transport  s e c t o r , and 44 t o 50 p e r c e n t f o r a l l s e c t o r s 1983b).  sector,  substitutes  a c c o u n t s f o r o v e r 95 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l c o n s u m p t i o n  Nations,  largest  s i z e of i t s share  from  of f i n d i n g  sector.  a s shown i n  With the e x c e p t i o n of the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n i n the r e l a t i v e  end  the  accounts f o r the  petroleum energy consumption,  showed a p p a r e n t g r o w t h  total  sector,  s e c t o r , h o u s e h o l d s , and t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l  these, the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n  share of t o t a l  use  o f t h e economy.  S e c t o r a l Use Of P e t r o l e u m About e i g h t y  of  by  combined  which  this (United  transportation  88 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l  petroleum  become i n c r e a s i n g l y  difficult  in Nigeria.  As an a d d e d b u r d e n ,  i t will  to r e t a i n nonindigenous o i l companies i n N i g e r i a , as  their  9.7 TABLE  NIGERIAN  SECTORAL  ENERGY 1 977 Gross Total E n e r g y Consumption Gross Energy Consumption .  325.60  L o s s e si  %  -115.01  --  Change  Electric Losses.  Energy Use  -1.18  3 5 . 3*  20* -1 30.35  139.73  Gross Total  --  563.77  + 1 3* 33.38  -178.98  Gross T o t a l Energy Consumption  * or Gross Total  --  + 28* 1 7 . 5*  10.7*  -208.01  --  + 50*  --  -2. 35  0.6*  -3.53  0.8*  -6.72  1.2*  --  + 50*  --  + 90*  --  3.6*  + 99*  --  Change  60.BK  --  I n d u s t r y and Cons t r u e t I o n :  86.01  13.5*  T r a n s p o r t o t l o n : B7.38 Road. Change  .Pal 1  of Total  --  Change.  -0.B5  11.2*  -0.1*  22*  3.07  1 .6*  211.90 + 21*  -16.60  3.0*  + 29*  62.7*  --  210.62 -2*  -21.90  1.1*  + 50*  51.7*  --  + 10*  16.9*  --  * or  Total Final E n e r g y Consumption  Total  Total F i n a l E n e r g y Consumpt i o n  * or  Total  110.B8  15.3*  102.38  12.6*  1 0 1 . 3.1  39.5*  + 29* 107.16 + 23* 1 .06  * or  261.1 1  Total Final E n e r g y Consumption  + B* 13.9*  113.79  --  + 6*  Total  + 2* 17.3*  --  0.1*  1 .06  o.oiX  3. 20  1.3*  3.20  1.3*  133.09 + 1 7*  SO.ft*  --  1 .06  0.1*  3.21  1.2*  + 1*  + 1*  Change  . Fla r 1 ne  3.3*  + 25*  H Change . Air  -1 2.87 + 11*  X  0.13  0.2*  0.13  16.1*  112.15  0.2*  0.13  0.2*  15.8*  118.18  19.2*  0.13  0.2*  Change  TOTAL %  --  19B0  * or  0.1*  Total Final Eriergy Consumption  %  Gross Total  Gross T o t a l Eriergy Consumption  --  F i n a l Energy Consumption Oy S e c t o r .  %  1 979  * or  + 1 9*  -11.62  197.79  %  390.17  PETROLEUM  Sector-  TOTAL F I N A L Energy Consumption  %  Gross Total E n e r g y Consumption  DF  GIGA3QULES.  --  --  --  %  --  --  Change  %  Gross Total  Plant  % C11 n n g e  CONSUMPTION  IN H I L L I O N  1 97B  * or  --  X Chanqe. Refinery  4.S  91 .73  X Chanqe  20.10  B.3X  10.75  9.5*  1 .28  0.7*  1 .19  0.6*  --  + 16*  --  X Chanqe AgrIculture  + 6*  + 22*  Change  Households  -10*  + 9*  --  18.20  1 .19  --  -7.6*  137.82  52.2*  + 16*  --  20.19  7.8*  --  + 12*  --  0.6*  1.19  0.6*  --  --  --  Source: D e r i v e d from: United Nations: 1983a. E n e r g y b a l a n c e s , 1977-1980 a n d E l e c t r i c i t y p r o f i l e 1975-1981 f o r S e 1 e c t e d D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s and Area. New Y o r k : United Nations pp. 1*6-153.  _  98 p r o f i t m a r g i n s a r e e r o d e d by production  cost  increases.  i n f l a t i o n and Quinlan  the  accompanying  (1983a:41-42) notes  that,  For the o i l companies w i t h e q u i t y i n t e r e s t s i n N i g e r i a , t h e low p r o d u c t i o n r a t e s o f t h e p a s t two y e a r s have b r o u g h t d i m i n i s h e d t o t a l r e t u r n s w h i l e c o s t s - e x p l o r a t i o n , f i n a n c i n g charges, maintenance and s a l a r i e s - h a v e r i s e n . Oil plays a crucial ways must be both  role  sought t o extend  for export  petrochemicals c u r r e n t l y no  and  substitutes.  v a s t n a t u r a l gas  petroleum  products.  4.1.1.2  Natural  span of t h i s end  uses such  and  resource, as  f o r which there  are  Where f e a s i b l e , e c o n o m i c use  of  the  r e s o u r c e s must be made i n p l a c e  of  Gas  R e s o u r c e s And  Reserves  has  been f o u n d i n N i g e r i a i n c o m m e r c i a l  q u a n t i t i e s , e i t h e r alone (1982b:8)  life  transportation fuel,  country's  Amu  the  f o r some s p e c i f i c  and  N a t u r a l gas  i n the w e l l - b e i n g of N i g e r i a  or  i n a s s o c i a t i o n with crude  oil.  notes,  I n N i g e r i a , n a t u r a l gas d i s c o v e r y was i n c i d e n t a l t o o i l e x p l o r a t i o n a s no d e l i b e r a t e s e a r c h f o r gas has y e t been e m b a r k e d upon by o i l p r o s p e c t i n g c o m p a n i e s . S i n c e most n a t u r a l gas with crude o i l ,  i n N i g e r i a i s produced i n c o n j u n c t i o n  the growth i n p r o v e n r e s e r v e s of n a t u r a l  gas  f o l l o w s the p a t t e r n of proven or r e c o v e r a b l e crude o i l r e s e r v e s . Table  4.6  shows p r o v e n n a t u r a l gas  the case f o r crude o i l , n a t u r a l gas production n a t u r a l gas  reserves  the c o u n t r y ' s  in Nigeria.  is  l a r g e s t q u a n t i t i e s of  proven r e s e r v e s o c c u r r e d around the boom.  As  1974 o i l  Recent d a t a , however, i n d i c a t e t h a t  r e s e r v e s h a v e i n c r e a s e d by a b o u t 48 p e r c e n t  total between  9 9  TABLE 4.6 NIGERIA'S NATURAL GAS PROVEN RESERVES i n B i l l i o n Cubic Metres and B i l l i o n Gigajoules 1971 - 1983  1  Year  B i l l i o n Cubic Metres  Billion Gigajoules  Percentage Change  1971  909.1  34.7  —  1972  909.1  34.7  —  1973  909.1  34.7  —  1974  1022.7  39.1  + 15 %  1975  1006.8  38.5  2 %  1976  1000.0  38.2  1 %  1977  977.3  37.3  2 %  1978  1220.0  46.6  - 25 %  1979  940.9  35.9  - 23 %  1980  931 .8  35.6  1 %  1981  —  —  —  1982  —  —  —  1983 1  1385.0  Exludes p r o b a b l e and p o s s i b l e  Sources:  52.9  + 48 %  reserves.  Amu, L. 1982b. " N i g e r i a n s O i l I n d u s t r y NAPETCOR. J u l y - S e p t e m b e r . p. 8.  - A Review"  Hough, G. V e r n o n . 1 9 8 3 . " N a t u r a l Gas R e s e r v e s K e e p A h e a d Of P r o d u c t i o n " . Petroleum Economist. August, p. 2 9 5 .  100  1980  and  1983,  oil  over  c o m p a r e d t o an  t h i s p e r i o d (Amu,  OPEC, 1 9 8 0 ) .  Current  are s u b s t a n t i a l . n a t u r a l gas  r e p r e s e n t i n g a b o u t 81 c o n v e n t i o n a l crude  gas  3  e s t i m a t e s o f N i g e r i a n n a t u r a l gas of u l t i m a t e l y  t o 126  percent  i s commonly p r o d u c e d i n N i g e r i a i n a s s o c i a t i o n  oil,  o f gas  and  has  a high gas/oil  per b a r r e l of o i l .  i n N i g e r i a are  i n 1974  illustrated  and  1979,  r a t i o , averaging  i n Table  4.7,  o i l production, reaching  f o l l o w e d by  produced i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h  (Schatzl,  Recent e s t i m a t e s put  (Osakwe, 1982;  r a t e of o i l output fallen  1980;  Amu,  1982a).  produced i s s t i l l  Moss and  Morgan,  1981;  million  o i l equivalent  to the r e l a t i v e l y  N e v e r t h e l e s s , 88 p e r c e n t flared.  required to  l o s s e s a t a b o u t 60  Due  lack  to i n d u s t r i e s located  i n r e c e n t y e a r s , n a t u r a l gas  substantially.  crude  Such waste i s a t t r i b u t e d t o the  (1.7 m i l l i o n G J ) , o r 400,000 b a r r e l s o f c r u d e  p e r day  high  substantial declines.  t o m e t r o p o l i t a n h o u s e h o l d s and  1982a).  which r e v e a l s a  transportation f a c i l i t i e s  away f r o m t h e o i l f i e l d s  roughly  Production patterns for natural  t o t h a t of crude  is wastefully flared.  s u p p l y gas  gas  of N i g e r i a ' s c u r r e n t p r o v e n  o i l reserves.  o f e x p o r t m a r k e t s and  3  r e c o v e r a b l e known  i n the c o u n t r y a r e even g r e a t e r ,  M o s t o f t h e n a t u r a l gas  M  reserves  N a t u r a l gas  points  Amu,  1983a;  Production  pattern similar  oil  crude  N a t u r a l Gas  w i t h crude 26M  for  1982a; Hough, 1983a; Q u i n l a n ,  Estimates  resources  i n c r e a s e o f 20 p e r c e n t  production  low has  of the n a t u r a l  TABLE 4.7 NIGERIA'S NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION, I N M I L L I O N  Year  Gross Production  1971  12,980  1972  17,122  1973  %  Change  Flaring  M  3  F l a r i n g As % of Gross Production  12,796  98.6%  +31.9%  16,849  98.4%  20,561  +20.1%  20,258  98.5%  1974  26,625  +29.5% -  26,219  98.5%  1975  18,955  -28.8%  18,553  97.9%  1976  22,101  +16.6%  21,469  97.1%  1977  21 ,445  - 3.0%  20,945  97.7%  1978  20,428  - 4.8%  20,048  98.1%  1979  30,049  +47.1%  28,671  95.4%  1980  24,552  -18.3%  23,482  95.6%  1981  17,113  -30.3%  14,759  86.2%  1982  12,050  -29.6%  11,000  91.3%  1983  15,500  +28.6%  13,000  83. 9%  Sources:  —  Amu, L. 1 9 8 2 . N i g e r i a n ' s O i l I n d u s t r y - A R e v i e w . NAPETCOR. L a g o s : J e r o m e l a i h o a n d A s s o c i a t e s , p. 8, J u l y - September. Q u i n l a n , M. 1 9 8 3 . Economy S t i l l U n d e r P e t r o l e u m E c o n o m i s t . p. 302, A u g u s t .  Pressure.  Q u i n l a n , M. 1984. O i l P o l i c y U n d e r The G e n e r a l s . Petroleum Economist. p. 57, F e b r u a r y .  102  P o l i c i e s A i m e d A t R e d u c i n g The The curb  g o v e r n m e n t o f N i g e r i a has  n a t u r a l gas  of the  flaring.  " A s s o c i a t e d Gas  r e q u i r e d every  One  F l a r i n g Of N a t u r a l  been t a k i n g some s t e p s  s u c h a c t i o n has  R e i n j e c t i o n A c t " of  o i l producing  been t h e  1979.  This  1)  the u t i l i z a t i o n o r g r o u p of  2)  o f a l l a s s o c i a t e d gas  fields;  The  Act  not  Compliance with t h i s Act  utilised  flaring  t e r r a i n of the N i g e r  1983b).  produced i n  i n an  industrial  after April  1st,  that they  would  1984. For  willingly  However, i n view of the  d e l t a areas,  great, p a r t i c u l a r l y  borrowing i n the  Nigeria during  the c o s t of  i f N i g e r i a has  recent  years  unit production  low  t o r e l y on  foreign  earnings.  r a t e s of o i l p r o d u c t i o n  in  have f o r c e d o i l companies t o bear  c o s t s as  the  p r o f i t margin d e c l i n e s as a r e s u l t i s therefore reasonable  difficult  such p i p e l i n e s  f a c e of a slump i n f o r e i g n revenue  F u r t h e r , as m e n t i o n e d e a r l i e r ,  higher  field  a v a i l a b l e t o t h e g o v e r n m e n t i f t h e r e were p i p e l i n e s  i t (Quinlan,  w o u l d be  later  produced from a  r a i s e s a number of p r o b l e m s .  e x a m p l e , most o i l c o m p a n i e s r e p l i e d  to take  no  r e a l value of h i g h  of t h e  inflation  fixed rates.  to expect t h a t the o i l companies  t h e A s s o c i a t e d Gas  Reinjection Act.  the c u r r e n t  revenue c r i s i s ,  the  Nigerian  It  will  seek a l l avenues a v a i l a b l e t o a v o i d the c o s t of c o m p l i a n c e  Despite  the  1982a).  f u r t h e r p r o h i b i t s gas  make t h e gas  act  or  a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h o i l but (Amu,  passing  for:  a p r o j e c t o r p r o j e c t s t o r e i n j e c t a l l gas  project  to  company i n N i g e r i a t o s u b m i t t o  C o m m i s s i o n e r f o r P e t r o l e u m a d e t a i l e d programme, by t h a n O c t o b e r 1 s t , 1980,  Gas  with  103  government remains c o m m i t t e d t o i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of p r o j e c t s at  reducing  Nigeria's at the  the  f i r s t major p e t r o c h e m i c a l  end  of  fertilizer  1987  (Quinlan,  which i s  plant  i n the  production  delta  l a r g e v o l u m e s o f n a t u r a l gas  new  b a s e d power s t a t i o n s h a v e a l s o been p r o p o s e d .  these p r o j e c t s w i l l the  v o l u m e o f gas Other plans  gas,  represent  currently flared daily  (Amu,  to the  s m a l l , the  C o m m e r c i a l use  been r i s i n g  o f n a t u r a l gas  dozen customers.  largest proportion production, The  in Nigeria  and  as  to Morocco,  o f c o m m e r c i a l gas  shown i n T a b l e  is  shown i n T a b l e  4.8.  i s l i m i t e d to just a  s i n c e gas  t h e r m a l power  r a r e l y occurs  industrial  usage i s  a r e g i o n a l spread of  (Moss and  to  1983b).  i n c o m m e r c i a l use  i n d u s t r i e s and  wider  a p o l i c y which favors  i n d u s t r i a l concentrations  Nigerian  Gas  to o i l f i e l d s ,  c l o s e to major urban c e n t r e s  of  suggested A l g e r i a -  s t e a d i l y as  These c o n s i s t of  stations located close  hampered by  Natural  v o l u m e o f n a t u r a l gas  l e v e l has  for  i n Western A f r i c a (Quinlan,  D o m e s t i c C o n s u m p t i o n Of A l t h o u g h the  Together,  1982b).  include a p i p e l i n e export route  influence  three  o f a b o u t 55 p e r c e n t  Spain p i p e l i n e or, a l t e r n a t e l y , a c o a s t a l route Nigerian  will  when c o m p l e t e d , and  a saving  providing a trans-Saharan l i n k  increase  region.  under c o n s t r u c t i o n  require gas  up  In a d d i t i o n , a  i n the Niger  s t e e l p l a n t s which are  flared.  i s planned to s t a r t  n a t u r a l gas  been u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n  i r o n and  gas  1983b:302).  p l a n t w h i c h w o u l d use  p r o c e s s has Two  volume of a s s o c i a t e d  aimed  Morgan, 1981).  To  small date,  i s used f o r e l e c t r i c  the  power  4.9.  s h a r p d r o p i n i n d u s t r i a l c o n s u m p t i o n l e v e l s of  natural  104  TABLE 4.8 COMMERCIAL NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION I N N I G E R I A 1976 - 1982  Year  Million  M  3  M i l l i o n GJ  A n n u a l % Change  1976  400  15.3  —  1977  600  22.9  50%  1978  900  34.4  50%  1979  1000  38.2  11%  1980  1100  42.0  10%  1981  2200  84.0  100%  1982  2200  84.0  Sources:  Hough, G. V e r n o n . 1983. " N a t u r a l Gas, R e s e r v e s Keep A h e a d Of P r o d u c t i o n " . Petroleum Economist. August, p. 2 9 5 .  —  Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation. A n n u a l Summary. L a g o s . p. 2 8 .  1982.  F e d e r a l O f f i c e Of S t a t i s t i c s . 1981. Annual Of S t a t i s t i c s . Lagos, p. 83.  Abstract  Petroleum Economist. p. 2 4 9 .  1976 V o l . X L I I I . n o . 7.  July,  Petroleum Economist. p. 2 6 2 .  1977 V o l . X L I V . n o . 7.  July,  Petroleum Economist. September, p. 362.  1978 V o l . X L V . n o . 9.  Petroleum Economist. p. 314.  1978 V o l . X L V I . n o . 8.  August,  105  TABLE 4.9 SECTORAL CONSUMPTION OF COMMERCIAL GAS I N N I G E R I A  Year  Total Consumption in M i l l i o n GJ.  C o n s u m p t i o n by T h e r m a l Power S t a t i o n Consumption % of inMillion Total GJ.  C o n s u m p t i o n by Industries Consumption % of in M i l l i o n Total GJ.  1976  15.3  12.1  79.1%  3.2  20.9%  1977  22.9  16.4  71.6%  6.5  28.4%  1978  34.-  26.3  76.5%  8.1  23.5%  1979  38.2  30.9  80.9%  7.3  19.1%  1980  42.0  31 .2  74.3%  10.8  25.7%  1981  84.0  80.2  95.5%.  3.8  4.5%  1982  84.0  80.2  95.5%  3.8  4.5%  1983  95.5  90.7  95.0%  4.8  5.0%  Sources:  M. Q u i n l a n . 1984. " O i l P o l i c y Under G e n e r a l s " . P e t r o l e u m E c o n o m i s t . F e b r u a r y , p. 5 5 . Nigerian N a t i o n a l Petroleum Corporation. A n n u a l Summary. L a g o s , p. 2 8 .  1982.  United Nations. 1983a. E n e r g y B a l a n c e s , 1977-1980 And E l e c t r i c i t y P r o f i l e s 1976-1981 F o r S e l e c t e d D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s And A r e a s . New Y o r k : United Nations. p p . 146-153, a n d 2 6 0 .  106 gas  i n t h e 1980s may be due t o s h o r t a g e s o f i m p o r t e d  raw m a t e r i a l s  w h i c h accompany g o v e r n m e n t r e s t r i c t i o n s on f o r e i g n  exchange spending because This  i n turn  forces  increases  r e f l e c t an i n c r e a s e use g a s . increase limit  altogether.  i n the capacity that  capacity,  hand,  consumption  of gas  o f t h e r m a l power p l a n t s t o  l o c a l demand f o r n a t u r a l g a s w i l l which  d o m e s t i c u s e t o j u s t a few c u s t o m e r s . s e c t o r , gas f o r domestic use t a k e s t h e  form of l i q u e f i e d petroleum gases  - from o i l r e f i n e r i e s .  g a s i s b o t t l e d a n d d i s t r i b u t e d t o c o n s u m e r s by means o f  portable  cylinders.  While Nigerian  t h a n enough gas i s p r o d u c e d consumers encounter  r e f i n e r i e s c l a i m t h a t more  t o s a t i s f y d o m e s t i c demand,  sporadic  p a r t l y due t o t h e i n a b i l i t y one  s i n c e 1980.  inadequate t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s  In t h e household  This  On t h e o t h e r  i n t o t a l commercial  I t seems l i k e l y despite  of d e c l i n i n g o i l revenues  some i n d u s t r i e s t o o p e r a t e b e l o w  or t o cease o p e r a t i o n s substantial  industrial  gas shortages.  problem i s  of domestic consumers t o s h i f t  s u p p l i e r o f g a s t o a n o t h e r on s h o r t  i n t h e D a i l y Times  This  notice.  from  As i s e x p l a i n e d  (1983:20),  ... t h e d i f f e r e n t c o m p a n i e s h a v e d i f f e r e n t c y l i n d e r head f i t t i n g s , c o u p l e d w i t h monetary o u t l a y o r d e p o s i t s t i e d down on t h e b o t t l e s . I f t h e a l l [ s i c ] g a s companies use u n i f o r m b o t t l e s and f i t t i n g s , then p r o c u r i n g g a s f o r d o m e s t i c u s e w i l l be l e s s d i s t r e s s i n g . The  various  gas m a r k e t i n g companies i n N i g e r i a c l a i m t h a t  u s e d i f f e r e n t c y l i n d e r h e a d f i t t i n g s a s a means o f their  empty c y l i n d e r s , a n d a s a means o f p r o t e c t i n g  p r o d u c t s from a d u l t e r a t i o n , r e t a i n i n g t h e i r monitoring  recovering their  i d e n t i t y , and  f a u l t y b o t t l e s w h i c h o c c u r f r o m wear a n d t e a r .  4.10 c o m p a r e s t h e c o s t  of d e p o s i t s  they  Table  on c y l i n d e r s o f f e r e d by two  107  TABLE  4.10  NATURAL GAS CYLINDERS I N N I G E R I A S I Z E S AND DEPOSITS  S i z e of C y l i n d e r  Cost of D e p o s i t on Empty C y l i n d e r Nidogas NNPC  5  kg  N18 US($31)  10  kg  1  Government C o n t r o l l e d Gas Price  N19.53 ($34)  N1 .56 ($3)  N25 ($44)  N/A N/A  N3.13 ($5)  12 . 5 kg  N26 ($45)  N26.72 ($47)  N3.90 ($7)  25  kg  N/A N/A  N58.87 ($102)  N7.81 ($14)  50  kg  N26.72 ($47)  N15.62 ($27)  N75 ($131)  Nigerian N a t i o n a l Petroleum Source:  Corporation  D a i l y T i m e s . 1983. "Gas And The Consumer". Lagos: D a i l y T i m e s P r e s s L t d . T u e s d a y , M a r c h 2 9 , p. 20.  108 of  t h e marketing companies.  These examples  demonstrate  t h a t use  of  more t h a n one s o u r c e o f g a s may be i m p o s s i b l e f o r l o w income  households.  1-3  Coal  Resources And Reserves N i g e r i a n c o a l s a r e m o s t l y s u b - b i t u m i n o u s and l i g n i t e , o r brown t y p e s o f medium q u a l i t y w i t h good c a l o r i f i c  v a l u e , low a s h  c o n t e n t , h i g h h y d r o c a r b o n a n d r e s i n c o n t e n t ( J e f f o r d , 1963; Ezekwe a n d Odukwe, 1 9 7 9 ) . total  coal  r e s o u r c e s a t 979 m i l l i o n  w i t h 272 m i l l i o n reserves  1  Current sources estimate Nigerian  tonnes  reserves  2  tonnes  million  (20715 m i l l i o n G J )  (Chukwu-Ike,  1979).  e s t i m a t e s put proven r e s e r v e s a t about (approximately  (28,685  (7958 m i l l i o n G J ) r e p r e s e n t i n g  a n d 707 m i l l i o n  as i n f e r r e d  tonnes  indicated  identified  Conservative  344 m i l l i o n  10079 m i l l i o n G J ) ( E z e i l o ,  GJ)  tonnes  1979; B e e k a ,  1979).  Production And Consumption Of Coal A l t h o u g h N i g e r i a has l a r g e d e p o s i t s of c o a l l e v e l of p r o d u c t i o n of c o a l to  resources, the  f l u c t u a t e s and d e c l i n e s  d i m i n i s h i n g domestic consumption.  i n response  Ngoka ( 1 9 8 1 : 1 1 2 ) n o t e s  that,  1 n d i c a t e d r e s e r v e s or r e s o u r c e s a r e t h o s e which tonnage and g r a d e a r e c o m p u t e d p a r t l y f r o m s p e c i f i c m e a s u r e m e n t s , samples, o r p r o d u c t i o n d a t a and p a r t l y from p r o j e c t i o n f o r a r e a s o n a b l e d i s t a n c e on g e o l o g i c a l e v i d e n c e . 1  I n f e r r e d r e s e r v e s or resources a r e those f o r which q u a n t i t a t i v e e s t i m a t e s a r e b a s e d l a r g e l y on b r o a d k n o w l e d g e o f the g e o l o g i c a l c h a r a c t e r of t h e d e p o s i t , and f o r w h i c h t h e r e a r e few, i f a n y , s a m p l e s o r m e a s u r e m e n t s . 2  109  A l t h o u g h c o a l was t h e m a j o r e n e r g y s o u r c e and one o f t h e p r i n c i p a l e c o n o m i c r e s o u r c e s of N i g e r i a , t h e a d v e n t o f o i l d i s c o v e r y has r e l e g a t e d t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h i s f o s s i l f u e l t o t h e b a c k g r o u n d . . . . Not o n l y has p r o d u c t i o n been r e d u c e d , i t i s d i s t u r b i n g t o n o t e t h a t some o f t h e m i n e s h a v e been c l o s e d down c o m p l e t e l y . Chukwu-lke out  (1979:256) i d e n t i f i e s a n o t h e r  f a c t o r when he  points  that, The N i g e r i a n R a i l w a y C o r p o r a t i o n has been g r a d u a l l y d i e s e l i s i n g i t s e n g i n e s and NEPA [ t h e N a t i o n a l E l e c t r i c Power A u t h o r i t y ] has p r a c t i c a l l y s h u t down a l l t h e small coal-based thermal s t a t i o n s . These changes threw the N i g e r i a n Coal C o r p o r a t i o n i n t o a badly depressed market. Table  4.11  presents  c o a l p r o d u c t i o n and a r e by has  f a r the  on  t h e most c u r r e n t d a t a  i t s c o n s u m p t i o n by  sector.  Industries  l a r g e s t consumers of c o a l i n the c o u n t r y .  n e v e r been p o p u l a r  as a d i r e c t  b e c a u s e o f more d e s i r a b l e and s u c h as  a v a i l a b l e on  fuelwood  and  (1979:260) p o i n t s  petroleum  source  of  fuel  Coal  for households  readily accessible alternatives products.  As  Chukwu-lke  out,  I t has been o f t e n a r g u e d t h a t t h e N i g e r i a n C o a l C o r p o r a t i o n has n o t e x p l o r e d a l l t h e d o m e s t i c m a r k e t i n N i g e r i a . F o r e x a m p l e , some p e o p l e c o n t e n d t h a t t h e r e i s an enormous p o t e n t i a l f o r c o a l i n t h e N o r t h where t h e r e i s l i m i t e d f i r e - w o o d . T h i s on t h e s u r f a c e appears reasonable. The f a c t i s t h a t k e r o s e n e i s much c h e a p e r and c l e a n e r f o r d o m e s t i c p u r p o s e s t h a n c o a l . The c o a l b u r n e r r e q u i r e s a s e p a r a t e k i t c h e n f o r i t s use where many p e o p l e b u r n t h e i r k e r o s e n e s t o v e s [ s i c ] i n o r b e s i d e t h e i r rooms. The electric  major consumers of c o a l , p a r t i c u l a r l y  the  railway  power p l a n t s , a r e e x p e r i e n c i n g r e d u c e d l e v e l s  c o n s u m p t i o n as  s u b s t i t u t e s such as p e t r o l e u m  i n t o use.  T h i s has  some o b v i o u s  Chukwu-lke  ( 1 9 7 9 : 2 5 8 ) p o i n t s o u t when he  products  and  of are  put  i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r economy, a s says  that,  T h e r e i s no d o u b t t h a t i f t h e N i g e r i a n economy [ s i c ] g r o w t h r a t e i s t o be a c h i e v e d , o i l must be  TABLE 4.11 COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION IN NIGERIA IN THOUSAND GIGAJOULES  1977  1978  1979  1980  Total Production % change  7767  7737 0.4%  5041 35%  5275 5%  Total Consumption % change  7649  5950 16*  4982 16%  5275  Consumption by Sector  Total  Share o f Total Consumption  Total  Share o f Total Consumption  Total  Share of Total Consumption  Total  Share of Total Consumption  . E l e c t r i c Power Plants % change  17.29  23%  2052 19%  34*  1465 29%  29%  1319 10%  25%  .Industries % change  4162  54%  2726 35%  46%  2491 9%  50%  3077 24%  -• 58*  . Railways % change  1758  23%  1172 33%  20*  1026 12%  21%  879 14%  17%  Source:  United Nations. 1983a: Energy balances, 1977-1980 & elect&eity profiles 1976-1981 for selected developing countries and areas. United Nations; New York. pp..146-152.  111 r e s e r v e d t o earn f o r e i g n exchange f o r N i g e r i a . It i s a l s o n e c e s s a r y t o e n s u r e t h a t t h e economy g r o w t h r a t e i s n o t i n h i b i t e d by i n a d e q u a t e e n e r g y s u p p l y . J u d g i n g w i t h t h e p r e s e n t NEPA e l e c t r i c i t y s u p p l y , t h e r e i s s c a r c e l y any d o u b t s t h a t N i g e r i a i s p o o r l y s u p p l i e d w i t h e l e c t r i c power. F o r N i g e r i a t o h a v e a d e q u a t e power s u p p l y and a l s o c o n s e r v e o i l and gas f o r f o r e i g n e x c h a n g e e a r n i n g s , the c o u n t r y needs t o u t i l i s e i t s v a s t r e s o u r c e s of c o a l .  L i m i t a t i o n s To The  Coal Production  Nigerian  coal  In  industry  Niqeria i s faced  w h i c h must be  solved  supplying  f u t u r e energy needs of  points  the  out  that  the  u n a t t r a c t i v e and t o r e c r u i t and railway  retain personnel.  of c o a l  which the  r a i n y season are  coal  difficulty  of the  tropical For  coal,  and  the  country's coal  the  role  relies  Afonja  (1979)  in