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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Policy options for the developing world's domestic energy supply : patterns and preferences in the Nigerian… Onyebuchi, Edward Ifeanyi 1986

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POLICY OPTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPING WORLD'S DOMESTIC ENERGY SUPPLY - PATTERNS AND PREFERENCES IN THE NIGERIAN DOMESTIC SECTOR by EDWARD IFEANYI ONYEBUCHI B.M.A., The U n i v e r s i t y of L e t h b r i d g e , 1978 M.N.R.M., The U n i v e r s i t y of M a n i t o b a , 1980 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Sc h o o l of Community and R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g t o the e n q u i r e d s t a n d a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA OCTOBER, 1986 ©Edward I f e a n y i Onyebuchi, 1986 In presenting t h i s thesis i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the Library s h a l l make i t f r e e l y available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of t h i s thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of my department or by his or her representatives. I t i s understood that copying or publication of t h i s thesis for f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be allowed without my written permission. Department of COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL PLANNTNO The University of B r i t i s h Columbia 1956 Main Mall Vancouver, Canada V6T 1Y3 Date October 6. 1986 /8-n ABSTRACT The main purpose of t h i s s tudy i s t o i d e n t i f y f a c t o r s g o v e r n i n g N i g e r i a n h o u s e h o l d s ' f u e l c h o i c e s and p r e f e r e n c e s , and t o e x p l o r e the degree t o which commonly proposed new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s s a t i s f y t h e s e needs and p r e f e r e n c e s . The p r i m a r y r e s e a r c h problem i s t h a t new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s proposed f o r domestic use i n N i g e r i a and o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s have proved t o be u n a c c e p t a b l e t o h o u s e h o l d s , d e s p i t e the o f t e n c i t e d v i r t u e s of a l t e r n a t i v e s such as b i o g a s , s o l a r c o o k e r s , and improved wood s t o v e s . The need f o r t h i s study i s f i r s t demonstrated t h r o u g h a r e v i e w of l i t e r a t u r e c o n c e r n i n g energy i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i n g e n e r a l , and N i g e r i a i n p a r t i c u l a r . The l i t e r a t u r e r e v e a l s t h a t N i g e r i a ' s energy problems m i r r o r t h o s e of o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , i n c l u d i n g p o t e n t i a l r e l i a n c e on n o n t r a d i t i o n a l , nonrenewable energy s o u r c e s which a r e p e t r o l e u m based, accompanied by r a p i d d e p l e t i o n of t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of energy such as f i r e w o o d , and the problem of i d e n t i f y i n g and a s s e s s i n g new energy s u p p l y t e c h n o l o g i e s which w i l l g a i n wide s p r e a d p u b l i c a c c e p t a n c e . The r e s e a r c h methods a r e case s t u d i e s i n both r u r a l and urban s e t t i n g s w i t h i n N i g e r i a . The i n s t r u m e n t s used f o r d a t a c o l l e c t i o n a r e i n t e r v i e w q u e s t i o n n a i r e s , accompanied by d i r e c t o b s e r v a t i o n s . Samples of e i g h t y h ouseholds have been s u r v e y e d from each of an urban c e n t r e , a r u r a l town, and a v i l l a g e s e t t i n g i n both n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n N i g e r i a , w i t h a t o t a l of 480 households b e i n g s u r v e y e d . i i The d a t a o b t a i n e d i s p r e s e n t e d i n t h r e e s t e p s . F i r s t , f a c t o r s g o v e r n i n g c u r r e n t c h o i c e s of f u e l t y p e s used on a f r e q u e n t b a s i s by households f o r domesti c purposes a r e a n a l y z e d , and a c o m p a r a t i v e assessment i s made of the degree t o which t h e s e f a c t o r s a r e i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o the d e s i g n s of commonly proposed new energy s u p p l y t e c h n o l o g i e s . E v i d e n c e shows t h a t a l t h o u g h a hou s e h o l d ' s c h o i c e of a p a r t i c u l a r f u e l i s n a t u r a l l y i n f l u e n c e d by economic f a c t o r s , the p r i c e per u n i t of energy i s not the s o l e b a s i s of c h o i c e . A wide range of i n t r i n s i c q u a l i t i e s d e t e r m i n e a f u e l ' s d e s i r a b i l i t y . The study shows t h a t s a f e t y , r e l i a b i l i t y of s u p p l y , c o n v e n i e n c e , v e r s a t i l i t y and c l e a n l i n e s s a r e v a r i a b l e s which a r e weighed when s e l e c t i n g a f u e l t y pe from among the wide a r r a y of a v a i l a b l e s o u r c e s of energy. The f a i l u r e t o a d e q u a t e l y i n c o r p o r a t e t h e s e q u a l i t i e s i n t o commonly proposed new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s such as s o l a r c o o k e r s and b i o g a s , has r e s u l t e d i n promotion of a l t e r n a t e energy s u p p l y systems which do not match the needs and p r e f e r e n c e s of i n t e n d e d u s e r s . A l t h o u g h the commonly proposed new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s a r e based on renewable s o u r c e s of energy which have the p o t e n t i a l t o p r o v i d e s u s t a i n a b l e , e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y s a f e , and d e c e n t r a l i z e d s u p p l y systems i n v o l v i n g cheap and v e r s a t i l e f u e l s , t h e s e a r e not the q u a l i t i e s on which h o u s e h o l d s i n N i g e r i a base t h e i r f u e l use c h o i c e s and p r e f e r e n c e s . The second s t e p i n v o l v e s i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of f u e l t y p e s most p r e f e r r e d by hou s e h o l d s f o r use i n domestic c h o r e s , and the reasons f o r such c h o i c e s . Almost a l l households s u r v e y e d p r e f e r n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s such as e l e c t r i c i t y and kerosene, d e s p i t e the a v a i l a b i l i t y of cheap t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of f u e l . Of i i i p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t i s the f i n d i n g t h a t a l t h o u g h v i l l a g e h o u seholds r e l y on u n s o p h i s t i c a t e d t r a d i t i o n a l energy t e c h n o l o g i e s , t h e i r a t t i t u d e s toward n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s such as kerosene and e l e c t r i c i t y a r e not d i f f e r e n t from t h o s e of households i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns. P r a c t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s such as the a v a i l a b i l i t y of a g i v e n f u e l type govern t h e i r c u r r e n t f u e l use p r a c t i c e s more than do t r a d i t i o n , c u l t u r e and p r e f e r e n c e . The t h i r d s t e p i s a n a l y s i s of the r e l a t i o n s h i p s of ho u s e h o l d s i z e , r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n s , and income l e v e l s t o consumption of t r a d i t i o n a l and n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l t y p e s . A m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n model i s employed, and the i m p l i c a t i o n s of the f i n d i n g s d i s c u s s e d . Urban growth, accompanied by r i s i n g income l e v e l s l e a d s t o i n c r e a s i n g dependence on n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s by households f o r domestic p u r p o s e s . One cause i s the e x p a n s i o n of domestic energy demands such as r e f r i g e r a t i o n , e n t e r t a i n m e n t and a i r c o n d i t i o n i n g , which cannot be s a t i s f i e d by t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s i n t h e i r p r e s e n t form. A second cause i s t h a t u r b a n i z a t i o n i s accompanied by the p r o v i s i o n of n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy s u p p l y systems and the s a l e of a p p l i a n c e s which r e q u i r e the use of such systems. U r b a n i z a t i o n i s an i m p o r t a n t a s p e c t of r e g i o n a l development p o l i c i e s i n N i g e r i a , but w h i l e r e g i o n a l p l a n n e r s seek t o t r a n s f o r m v i l l a g e s i n t o t h r i v i n g urban c e n t r e s w i t h energy s u p p l y systems based on f i n i t e h y d rocarbon r e s o u r c e s , energy p l a n n e r s propose new energy a l t e r n a t i v e s i n v o l v i n g s i m p l e t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r use i n r u r a l s e t t i n g s . T h i s f i n d i n g s u g g e s t s t h a t new energy s u p p l y p o l i c i e s s h o u l d be made an i n t e g r a l p a r t i v of n a t i o n a l development p o l i c i e s . These r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s suggest t h a t a n e e d - d r i v e n approach t o the problem of f i n d i n g a c c e p t a b l e energy s u p p l y a l t e r n a t i v e s i s needed t o r e p l a c e the c u r r e n t l y employed t e c h n o l o g y - d r i v e n approach. Research S u p e r v i s o r : Dr. W i l l i a m Rees v TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT i i TABLE OF CONTENTS v i LIST OF TABLES x i LIST OF FIGURES x v i i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS x v i i i Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION . . 1 1.1 B r i e f Overview of the Research Need and Problem Statement 1 1.2 B a s i c Hypotheses 4 1.3 O b j e c t i v e s of the Study 5 1.4 B a s i c Assumptions of the Study 5 1.5 S i g n i f i c a n c e of the Study 6 1.6 O r g a n i z a t i o n of the Study 7 PART ONE 2 ENERGY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 9 2.1 The Nature and Dimensions of the Problem 10 2.1.1 Dependence on Petroleum Energy Resources and High O i l P r i c e s . . 10 2.1.1.1 Energy Use P a t t e r n s i n the Developing World . . 10 2.1.1.2 High O i l P r i c e s 15 2.1.2 Sources of N o n t r a d i t i o n a l Energy and Supply C o n s t r a i n t s i n Developing C o u n t r i e s 30 2.1.2.1 Petroleum O i l 31 2.1.2.2 Heavy O i l and Tar Sands . 34 2.1.2.3 O i l Shale 36 2.1.2.4 N a t u r a l Gas 38 2.1.2.5 Coal 4 2 2.1.2.6 H y d r o e l e c t r i c Resource P o t e n t i a l 47 v i 2.1.2.7 N u c l e a r Energy 49 2.1.3 T r a d i t i o n a l Energy And Supply C o n s t r a i n t s In D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s 52 3 POLICY OPTIONS AND PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE 63 3.1 Remedies And P r e s c r i p t i o n s 63 3.2 Problems And O b s t a c l e s A s s o c i a t e d W ith P u b l i c Acceptance Of A l t e r n a t e New Energy Supply O p t i o n s 75 3.2.1 The Rol e Of P u b l i c P a r t i c i p a t i o n . . . 77 PART TWO 4 ENERGY IN NIGERIA 85 4.1 Energy R e s o u r c e s , P r o d u c t i o n , And Consumption 86 4.1.1 N o n t r a d i t i o n a l Energy 86 4.1.1.1 P e t r o l e u m Resources 86 4.1.1.2 N a t u r a l Gas 98 4.1.1.3 C o a l 108 4.1.1.4 E l e c t r i c i t y 112 4.1.2 T r a d i t i o n a l Energy Resources 120 4.1.2.1 F o r e s t Energy 120 4.1.3 O v e r a l l Energy Consumption P a t t e r n s In N i g e r i a . 123 4.2 Summary And P o l i c y I m p l i c a t i o n s 128 4.3 A l t e r n a t e New Energy Supply T e c h n o l o g i e s : The Case For N i g e r i a 133 5 THEORETICAL CONTEXT, RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 136 5.1 T h e o r e t i c a l C o n t e x t 136 5.2 Research Design 140 v i i 5.2.1 I d e n t i f i c a t i o n Of The Research P o p u l a t i o n 141 5.2.2 Data C o l l e c t i o n 144 5.3 Res e a r c h Methodology . . 146 5.3.1 F i e l d I n t e r v i e w E x p e r i e n c e s . . . . 153 5.3.2 P r o c e d u r e s For Data A n a l y s i s . . . 159 6 ENERGY USE PATTERNS AND PREFERENCES IN THE NIGERIAN DOMESTIC SECTOR 163 6.1 Frequency Of Use Of V a r i o u s F u e l Types . . 171 6.1.1 C u r r e n t Household F u e l C h o i c e s For Cooking Purposes 171 6.1.1.1 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The Choi c e Of F r e q u e n t l y Used F u e l s For House-h o l d Cooking Purposes 178 6.1.2 C u r r e n t F u e l C h o i c e s For Water H e a t i n g Purposes 181 6.1.2.1 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The Choi c e Of F u e l Types F r e q u e n t l y Used For Household Water H e a t i n g 184 6.1.3 C u r r e n t Household F u e l C h o i c e s For Food P r e s e r v a t i o n P u rposes. . . 189 6.1.3.1 ' F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The Choi c e Of F u e l s F r e q u e n t l y Used For Food P r e s e r v a t i o n . . 195 6.1.4 F u e l s F r e q u e n t l y Used For The Purpose Of Home L i g h t i n g . . . . 197 6.1.4.1 Reasons For The Cho i c e Of P a r t i c u l a r F u e l Types C u r r e n t l y Used For Home L i g h t i n g . . 200 6.1.5 Summary And D i s c u s s i o n 202 6.2 F u e l Types Most P r e f e r r e d By Households 211 For Domestic Purposes 6.2.1 D i s c u s s i o n 218 v i i i 6.3 U n d e s i r a b l e C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s Of F u e l Types C u r r e n t l y Used By Households 226 6.4 E s t i m a t e d Monthly Household Energy Consumption For Domestic Purposes . . . 231 6.4.1 Consumption Of T r a d i t i o n a l Energy Sources 231 6.4.2 Consumption Of N o n t r a d i t i o n a l F u e l s 237 6.4.3 T o t a l Energy Consumption 244 6.4.4 P o l i c y I m p l i c a t i o n s 252 6.5 C o n c l u s i o n 258 PART THREE 7 POLICY AND PLANNING IMPLICATIONS: TOWARDS A NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY AND PROGRAM FOR NIGERIA 260 7.1 Summary 260 7.1.1 O v e r a l l P o l i c y And P l a n n i n g I m p l i c a t i o n s 268 7.2 Energy P o l i c y O p t i o n s For N i g e r i a 272 7.2.1 A d m i n i s t r a t i v e Framework 273 7.2.2 A l t e r n a t e New Energy Resources Supply Systems 276 7.2.2.1 S o l a r Energy 276 7.2.2.2 Wind Power 277 7.2.2.3 Biomass 278 7.2.3 E x i s t i n g Energy Resource Supply Systems 280 7.2.3.1 Fuelwood P r o d u c t i o n . . . 280 7.2.3.2 O i l 284 7.2.3.3 N a t u r a l Gas 285 7.2.3.4 C o a l And Hydro Power . . 286 7.2.4 Energy Supply D i v e r s i f i c a t i o n . . . 287 i x 7.2.5 I n t e g r a t e d Development P l a n s . . . 289 7.2.6 F o r e i g n A i d 291 7.2.7 Energy C o n s e r v a t i o n 292 7.2.8 C o n c l u s i o n s 297 7.3 A Comparison W i t h The R e s u l t s Of A S i m i l a r Study 297 7.4 C o n c l u s i o n s And Recommendations 301 LIST OF REFERENCES 305 APPENDIX 321 DEFINITION OF TERMS 329 CONVERSION FACTORS FOR COMMON ENERGY AND POWER UNITS . . 332 x LIST OF TABLES 2.1 Shares Of N o n t r a d i t i o n a l And Petroleum-Based Energy In T o t a l Energy Consumption In Major S e c t o r s Of I n d i v i d u a l D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s For 1982. . . . 12 2.2 Shares of E l e c t r i c And C o a l Energy In T o t a l Energy Consumption In Major S e c t o r s Of I n d i v i d u a l D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s For 1982 14 2.3 O i l P r i c e Change, And OPEC's O i l As P e r c e n t Of World O i l Consumption 20 2.4 OPEC C o u n t r i e s ' Average D a i l y P r o d u c t i o n From 1970 - 1979, And The L e v e l Of P r o d u c t i o n Quotas In 1982 . 21 2.5 NOIDC Energy B a l a n c e , 1960 - 1980, In M i l l i o n B/D Of O i l E q u i v a l e n t 26 2.6 C u r r e n t Account D e f i c i t s , Net O i l I m p o r t i n g D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s 1973 - 1978 $ B i l l i o n . . . .28 2.7 E s t i m a t e s Of U l t i m a t e World Resources Of C o n v e n t i o n a l O i l 32 2.8 C l a s s i f i c a t i o n Of C o a l By Rank 43 2.9 C o a l C l a s s i f i c a t i o n By World Energy C o n f e r e n c e , 1978 45 2.10 S c h e d u l e d E x p a n s i o n Of N u c l e a r C a p a c i t y (GW(w) In O p e r a t i o n At the End-Year) 50 2.11 The Fuelwood S i t u a t i o n In The D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s 55 2.12 Fuelwood Sh o r t a g e s In D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s , C u r r e n t And F u t u r e Dimensions In M i l l i o n s Of Peopl e A f f e c t e d 57 3.1 T e c h n o l o g i e s For C o n v e r s i o n Of Biomass I n t o U s a b l e F u e l s 70 3.2 T e c h n o l o g i e s For The Use Of F u e l s D e r i v e d From Biomass 72 3.3 Major T e c h n o l o g i e s For Use Of Renewable Energy Resources For The P r o d u c t i o n Of Heat, M e c h a n i c a l , And E l e c t r i c a l Energy 73 4.1 N i g e r i a n Proven Crude O i l R e s e r v e s , 1961 - 1983. . 88 4.2 N i g e r i a Crude O i l P r o d u c t i o n And E x p o r t s . 1961 - 1982 89 x i 4.3 N i g e r i a n Crude O i l E x p o r t s By D e s t i n a t i o n , For 1981 91 4.4 Domestic Consumption Of P e t r o l e u m Energy P r o d u c t s In N i g e r i a 93 4.5 N i g e r i a n S e c t o r a l Consumption Of P e t r o l e u m Energy, In M i l l i o n G i g a j o u l e s 97 4.6 N i g e r i a n ' s N a t u r a l Gas Proven R e s e r v e s , In B i l l i o n C u bic Metres And B i l l i o n G i g a j o u l e s , 1971 - 1983 99 4.7 N i g e r i a n ' s N a t u r a l Gas P r o d u c t i o n , In M i l l i o n M 3 101 4.8 Commercial N a t u r a l Gas Consumption In N i g e r i a 1976 - 1982 104 4.9 S e c t o r a l Consumption Of Commercial Gas In N i g e r i a . 105 4.10 N a t u r a l Gas C y l i n d e r s In N i g e r i a , S i z e s And D e p o s i t s 107 4.11 C o a l P r o d u c t i o n And Consumption In N i g e r i a , In Thousand G i g a j o u l e s 110 4.12 E l e c t r i c i t y P r o d u c t i o n In N i g e r i a , 1970 - 1982, In M i l l i o n G i g a j o u l e s . . 113 4.13 F u e l Energy Used For Thermal E l e c t r i c i t y P r o d u c t i o n In N i g e r i a 116 4.14 N i g e r i a n E l e c t r i c i t y Consumption, i n M i l l i o n G i g a j o u l e s . 118 4.15 Fuelwood Consumption In N i g e r i a , 1970 -1981. . . . 124 4.16 Consumption Of Fuelwood In N i g e r i a , By S e c t o r . . . 125 4.17 Shares Of T o t a l Energy Consumption By S e c t o r In N i g e r i a ( P e r c e n t ) 126 4.18 Shares Of T o t a l Energy Consumption By F u e l Source In N i g e r i a ( P e r c e n t ) 127 4.19 T o t a l Energy Consumed, By S e c t o r , As P e r c e n t a g e Of T o t a l , In N i g e r i a 129 4.20 Shares Of U s e f u l Energy Consumption, By S e c t o r In N i g e r i a As P e r c e n t a g e Of T o t a l 130 5.1 Power Demand And Energy Consumption Of Domestic A p p l i a n c e s In N i g e r i a 150 6.1 Demographic P r o f i l e s By Sample L o c a t i o n s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 165 x i i 6.2 Demographic P r o f i l e s by Sample L o c a t i o n s W i t h i n N i g e r i a ( contd) 166 6.3 Household S i z e As A F u n c t i o n Of Household Income i n Urban S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 167 6.4 Household S i z e As A F u n c t i o n Of Household Income i n R u r a l S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a . . . . 168 6.5 Household S i z e As A F u n c t i o n Of Household Income i n V i l l a g e S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 169 6.6 Frequency Of Use Of C e r t a i n F u e l Types For Cooking Purposes By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 172 6.7 The Use Of T r a d i t i o n a l And N o n t r a d i t i o n a l F u e l Types On A Frequent B a s i s For Cooking Purposes By Monthly Household Income Groups W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 175 6.8 The Use Of T r a d i t i o n a l And N o n t r a d i t i o n a l F u e l Types For Cooking Purposes On A Frequent B a s i s By Household S i z e Groups W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 176 6.9 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l Types In C u r r e n t Use On A Frequent B a s i s For Cooking Purposes By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 180 6.10 Frequency Of Use Of C e r t a i n F u e l Types For Water H e a t i n g Purposes By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 182 6.11 The Use Of T r a d i t i o n a l And N o n t r a d i t i o n a l F u e l Types On A Frequent B a s i s For Water H e a t i n g Purposes by Monthly Household Income Groups W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a . . . 185 6.12 The Use Of T r a d i t i o n a l And N o n t r a d i t i o n a l F u e l Types On A Frequent B a s i s For Water H e a t i n g Purposes By Household S i z e Groups W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 186 6.13 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e Of F u e l Types In C u r r e n t Use On A Frequent B a s i s For Water H e a t i n g Purposes By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 188 6.14 Frequency Of Use Of C e r t a i n F u e l Types For Food P r e s e r v a t i o n Purposes by Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 191 x i i i 6.15 The Use Of T r a d i t i o n a l And N o n t r a d i t i o n a l F u e l Types On A Frequent B a s i s For Food P r e s e r v a t i o n Purposes By Household S i z e Groups W i t h i n R u r a l and Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 193 6.16 The Use Of T r a d i t i o n a l And N o n t r a d i t i o n a l F u e l Types On A Frequent B a s i s For Food P r e s e r v a t i o n Purposes By Household Income Groups W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 194 6.17 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l Types In C u r r e n t Use On A Frequent B a s i s For Food P r e s e r v a t i o n Purposes By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 196 6.18 Frequency Of Use Of C e r t a i n F u e l Types For Home L i g h t i n g Purposes By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 198 6.19 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l Types In C u r r e n t Use On A Frequent B a s i s For Home L i g h t i n g Purposes By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s In N i g e r i a 201 6.20 C o n v e n t i o n a l Energy Resource P r o d u c t s Supply S i t u a t i o n By Sample L o c a t i o n s W i t h i n N i g e r i a . . 203 6.21 F u e l Types In Use On Frequent B a s i s For C o o k i n g , Water H e a t i n g , Home L i g h t i n g And Food P r e s e r v a t i o n Purposes By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 204 6.22 F u e l Types Most P r e f e r r e d For Use In M e e t i n g Major Domestic Energy Tasks By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 212 6.23 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l Types Most P r e f e r r e d For Cooking Purposes By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a . . . 214 6.24 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l Types Most P r e f e r r e d For Water H e a t i n g Purposes By House-h o l d s W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 216 6.25 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l Types Most P r e f e r r e d For Home L i g h t i n g Purposes By House-h o l d s W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 217 6.26 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l Types Most P r e f e r r e d For Food P r e s e r v a t i o n Purposes By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 219 x i v 6.27 F u e l Types Which The Households Would L i k e To Have P r o v i d e d For T h e i r Use, In Order Of P r e f e r e n c e s - Case S t u d i e s Of R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 220 6.28 The Mean E s t i m a t e d T o t a l Monthly T r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 232 6.29 T o t a l Monthly T r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption ( I n M e g a j o u l e s ) As F u n c t i o n s Of Monthly Household Income And Household S i z e C a t e g o r i e s For Urban S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 233 6.30 T o t a l Monthly T r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption ( I n M e g a j o u l e s ) As F u n c t i o n s Of Monthly Household Income And Household S i z e C a t e g o r i e s For R u r a l Town S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 234 6.31 T o t a l Monthly T r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption ( I n M e g a j o u l e s ) As F u n c t i o n s Of Monthly Household Income And Household S i z e C a t e g o r i e s For V i l l a g e S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 235 6.32 The Mean E s t i m a t e d T o t a l Monthly N o n t r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 238 6.33 T o t a l Monthly N o n t r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption ( i n M e g a j o u l e s ) As F u n c t i o n s Of Monthly House-h o l d Income And Household S i z e C a t e g o r i e s For R u r a l S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 239 6.34 T o t a l Monthly N o n t r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption ( i n M e g a j o u l e s ) As F u n c t i o n s Of Monthly House-h o l d Income And Household S i z e C a t e g o r i e s For Urban S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 240 6.35 T o t a l M o n thly N o n t r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption ( i n M e g a j o u l e s ) As F u n c t i o n s Of Monthly House-h o l d Income And Household S i z e C a t e g o r i e s For V i l l a g e S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 241 6.36 T o t a l M o n thly Energy Consumption ( i n M e g a j o u l e s ) For Domestic Purposes As F u n c t i o n s Of Household Income And Household S i z e For Urban S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 245 6.37 T o t a l M o n thly Energy Consumption ( i n M e g a j o u l e s ) For Domestic Purposes As F u n c t i o n s Of Household Income And Household S i z e For R u r a l S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 246 xv 6.38 T o t a l Monthly Energy Consumption ( i n M e g a j o u l e s ) For Domestic Purposes As F u n c t i o n s Of Household Income And Household S i z e For V i l l a g e S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 247 6.39 T o t a l Monthly F i n a n c i a l E x p e n d i t u r e On Energy For Domestic Purposes ( i n N a i r a ) As F u n c t i o n s Of Household Income And Household S i z e For Urban S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 248 6.40 T o t a l Monthly F i n a n c i a l E x p e n d i t u r e On Energy For Domestic Purposes ( i n N a i r a ) As F u n c t i o n s Of Household Income And Household S i z e For R u r a l S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 249 6.41 T o t a l Monthly F i n a n c i a l E x p e n d i t u r e On Energy For Domestic Purposes ( i n N a i r a ) As F u n c t i o n s Of Household Income And Household S i z e For V i l l a g e S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 250 7.1 Biomass Energy C o n v e r s i o n T e c h n o l o g i e s 279 7.2 E s t i m a t e d C o s t s Of Biomass And C o n v e n t i o n a l Energy P r o d u c t s In The U.S.A. In $ Per M i l l i o n B.T.U. U n l e s s O t h e r w i s e I n d i c a t e d 281 x v i LIST OF FIGURES 3.1 Major Renewable Energy Resources And A p p l i c a t i o n s For D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s 69 5.1 Map Of N i g e r i a Showing Case Study L o c a t i o n s . . . . 142 7.1 A H y p o t h e t i c a l I n t e g r a t e d Energy Supply System . . 288 7.2 I n t e r a c t i o n Between Energy And Non-Energy S e c t o r s Of The N i g e r i a n Economy 290 x v i i For MARY ERLEAN BROADWAY, MY PARENTS AND DAVID ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I e s p e c i a l l y owe a debt of g r a t i t u d e t o my w i f e D a n i t a , f o r her u n e q u a l l e d s u p p o r t , encouragement, a s s i s t a n c e and s a c r i f i c e t h roughout the s i x y e a r s t h i s s t u d y was underway. A s s i s t a n c e was a l s o r e c e i v e d from my s u p e r v i s o r y committee, composed of Dr. John Chapman, Dr. Henry Hightower, Dr. P e t e r Nemetz, and my s u p e r v i s o r Dr. W i l l i a m Rees. T h e i r commitment, t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e , and a d v i s e i s g r e a t l y a p p r e c i a t e d . My f i e l d r e s e a r c h i n N i g e r i a was s u p e r v i s e d by P r o f e s s o r N e l s o n Ngoka of the U n i v e r s i t y of I f e , and I am g r a t e f u l f o r h i s a s s i s t a n c e . S p e c i a l thanks must go t o the F e d e r a l Government of N i g e r i a which funded t h i s s t u d y . F i n a n c i a l a s s i s t a n c e was a l s o p r o v i d e d t h r o u g h the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia by the Donner Canadian F o u n d a t i o n S c h o l a r s h i p and M e l l o n S c h o l a r s h i p , which a r e much a p p r e c i a t e d . A p p r e c i a t i o n i s extended t o Dr. W a l t e r Henson, D i r e c t o r of the N a t u r a l Resources I n s t i t u t e a t the U n i v e r s i t y of M a n i t o b a , f o r h i s r e l e n t l e s s support and encouragement from the i n c e p t i o n of my Ph.D. program t o i t s c o m p l e t i o n ; as w e l l as f o r the generous g i f t of computer t i m e . J i m Ferguson and John Skynner a l s o p r o v i d e d much a p p r e c i a t e d a s s i s t a n c e i n computer a n a l y s i s of d a t a . I w i s h t o e x p r e s s my g r a t i t u d e t o P r o f e s s o r Ken M c V i c a r , Department of P o l i t i c a l S t u d i e s , Dr. John Gray, Department of Economics, and Dr. V. S m i l , Department of Geography, a l l a t the U n i v e r s i t y of M a n i t o b a , f o r t h e i r h e l p f u l a d v i c e and t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e . I am g r a t e f u l t o the s t a f f of x v i i i Resources f o r the F u t u r e and the World Bank's Energy P o l i c y U n i t i n Washington, as w e l l as t o those a t the F o r e s t r y D i v i s i o n and Energy P o l i c y U n i t of FAO i n Rome f o r t h e i r a s s i s t a n c e i n l o c a t i n g u s e f u l secondary r e s e a r c h documents and r e p o r t s . Thanks a l s o go t o P r o f e s s o r Brahm Wiesman, Dr. Mathew Ohanamah, Mr. Stephen Obiagwu, Mr. Raymond Ogbu, and Mr. & Mrs. A. O k o l i . My c o l l e a g u e s A l a i n Cunningham and Ed Huebert have a l s o been c o n t i n u i n g s o u r c e s of encouragement. F i n a l l y , I w i s h t o e x p r e s s my g r a t i t u d e t o my p a r e n t s , Mr. & Mrs. D a v i d Onyebuchi, whose l o v e , v i s i o n , c o n f i d e n c e and p r a y e r s h e l p e d t o make t h i s s t u d y p o s s i b l e . x i x CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION The p r i m a r y f o c u s o f t h i s t h e s i s i s a n a l y s i s o f t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h t h e q u a l i t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h commonly p r o p o s e d new e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r d o m e s t i c p u r p o s e s s a t i s f y t h e needs and p r e f e r e n c e s of h o u s e h o l d s i n b o t h r u r a l and u r b a n s e t t i n g s i n N i g e r i a . T h i s g o a l i s a c c o m p l i s h e d t h r o u g h i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f t h e f a c t o r s on w h i c h N i g e r i a n h o u s e h o l d s base t h e i r e x i s t i n g f u e l c h o i c e s , t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e s f o r c e r t a i n t r a d i t i o n a l and non-t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l t y p e s i n m e e t i n g major d o m e s t i c e n e r g y n e e d s , and t h e d e g r e e t o w h i c h t h e s e f a c t o r s a r e r e f l e c t e d i n t h e d e s i g n s o f commonly p r o p o s e d a l t e r n a t e new e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r d o m e s t i c use i n N i g e r i a . The f i n d i n g s o f t h e s t u d y a r e g e n e r a l i z e d f o r a p p l i c a t i o n t o o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , where p o s s i b l e . The need f o r t h i s s t u d y i s d e t e r m i n e d t h r o u g h a r e v i e w o f e x i s t i n g l i t e r a t u r e c o n c e r n i n g e n e r g y s u p p l y p r o b l e m s and a l t e r n a t i v e e n e r g y p o l i c y p r e s c r i p t i o n s f o r b o t h t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i n g e n e r a l and N i g e r i a i n p a r t i c u l a r . B r i e f Overview Of The R e s e a r c h Need And Problem Statement T h e r e a r e two r e l a t e d e n e r g y c r i s e s i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . F i r s t , g r o w i n g d o m e s t i c d ependence on n o n r e n e w a b l e p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s has v a r y i n g i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r d i f f e r e n t g r o u p s o f d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . The c o s t of i m p o r t e d p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s p u t s c o n s i d e r a b l e s t r a i n on t h e b a l a n c e o f payment c o n d i t i o n s o f n e t o i l i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s w h i c h form t h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , and i s a c c o m p a n i e d by 1 2 w o r s e n i n g debt problems. In net o i l e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s f o r e i g n exchange e a r n i n g s a r e t i e d t o o i l e x p o r t s , and growing domestic demands f o r p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s can be met o n l y t h r o u g h a more r a p i d d e p l e t i o n of t h e i r f i n i t e p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s . T h i s problem of growing domestic dependence on p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s i n most d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s compounded by the l a c k of i n t e r n a l s u p p l i e s of o t h e r known n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l t y p e s such as n a t u r a l gas, c o a l , h y d r o e l e c t r i c power r e s o u r c e s , and n u c l e a r power. For example, the m a j o r i t y of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s who are most dependent on o i l i m p o r t s t e n d t o be l e a s t well-endowed w i t h n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s . C o a l i s used s u b s t a n t i a l l y i n j u s t a few d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s where mines have been w e l l - d e v e l o p e d , n o t a b l y i n C h i n a , I n d i a , Zimbabwe, Zambia and N o r t h K o r e a . However, c o a l r e s o u r c e s i n s e v e r a l d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e not y e t e c o n o m i c a l l y or t e c h n i c a l l y r e c o v e r a b l e . In a d d i t i o n , h i g h i n f r a s t r u c t u r e c o s t s f o r m i n i n g , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , and h a n d l i n g may c o n t i n u e t o slow development of c o a l r e s o u r c e s i n many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . H y d r o e l e c t r i c r e s o u r c e p o t e n t i a l s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d a r e r e s t r i c t e d t o j u s t a few c o u n t r i e s , w h i l e n u c l e a r power p l a y s an i n s i g n i f i c a n t r o l e and i s l i k e l y t o c o n t i n u e t o do so, s i n c e even f o r t h o s e c o u n t r i e s which have the r e q u i r e d uranium d e p o s i t s , the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d ' s c o n c e r n s about n u c l e a r p r o l i f e r a t i o n a r e d i f f i c u l t t o overcome, as a r e s a f e t y problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h n u c l e a r energy s u p p l y t e c h n o l o g i e s . The second energy c r i s i s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d r e l a t e s t o the s u p p l y of t r a d i t i o n a l or noncommercial energy s o u r c e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y fuelwood and i t s d e r i v a t i v e , c h a r c o a l . A l t h o u g h 3 t h e s e f u e l s a r e o f t e n bought and s o l d , they a r e r e f e r r e d t o as "noncommercial" forms of energy because such t r a n s a c t i o n s a r e not r e c o r d e d i n commercial energy s t a t i s t i c s and do not i n v o l v e i n t e r n a t i o n a l exchange. Yet t h e s e noncommercial energy s o u r c e s s u p p l y more than n i n e t y p e r c e n t of the energy needs of the r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , and account f o r about t w e n t y - f i v e p e r c e n t of t o t a l energy consumption of t h e s e c o u n t r i e s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , however, due t o p r o l o n g e d drought and p r e s s u r e s from i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n , f i r e w o o d s c a r c i t i e s a r e c r i t i c a l i n many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s and have r e s u l t e d i n what i s c a l l e d "the o t h e r energy c r i s i s " by Eckholm (1975) and T o l b a (1978), and "the poor man's energy c r i s i s " ( U n i t e d N a t i o n s . 1978) . C o n s i d e r a t i o n of the v a r i o u s d i m e n s i o n s of energy problems i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s has g i v e n impetus t o p o l i c y p r e s c r i p t i o n s and new energy s t r a t e g i e s f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s which a r e d e s i g n e d t o reduce or a v o i d dependence on nonrenewable h y d r o c a r b o n f u e l r e s o u r c e s and slow down the p r o c e s s of d e p l e t i o n of domestic f i r e w o o d r e s o u r c e s (World Bank, 1979a, 1981; H i l l i n g , 1976; E a r l , 1975; F r e n c h , 1978a; and P a r i k h , 1975). In the h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r s o l a r c o o k e r s , b i o g a s , and improved wood s t o v e s a r e the most commonly proposed a l t e r n a t e new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r domestic use i n N i g e r i a and the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d as a whole. Development and a p p l i c a t i o n of such a l t e r n a t e new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s has been the main f o c u s of r e s e a r c h c o n c e r n i n g energy i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s s i n c e the m i d - s e v e n t i e s , and i s d i s c u s s e d e x t e n s i v e l y i n c u r r e n t l i t e r a t u r e (World Bank, 1981a; Eden et a l . ; 1981; 4 Roa, 1 9 8 1 ; D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , 1981a; C e c e l s k i e t a l . , 1979; Rahmer, 1979; R u e d i s l i e t a l . e d s . , 1978; Auer e t a l . , 1978; Brown, e d . , 1978; WAES, 1977). B o t h s o l a r c o o k e r s and b i o g a s a r e t e c h n i c a l l y and e c o n o m i c a l l y f e a s i b l e , and b o t h i n v o l v e t h e use o f c h e a p , r e n e w a b l e , v e r s a t i l e e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s w h i c h have t h e p o t e n t i a l t o p r o v i d e s u s t a i n a b l e , e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y s a f e d e c e n t r a l i z e d e n e r g y s u p p l y s y s t e m s u s i n g what a r e known as i n t e r m e d i a t e t e c h n o l o g i e s . D e s p i t e s u c h v i r t u e s and t h e a t t e n t i o n t h e y have been g i v e n i n l i t e r a t u r e c o n c e r n i n g e n e r g y i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , t h e s e a l t e r n a t e new e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s have p r o v e n t o be u n a c c e p t a b l e t o h o u s e h o l d s w i t h i n N i g e r i a and o t h e r c o u n t r i e s o f t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . I t i s t h i s p r o b l e m o f a c c e p t a n c e o f a l t e r n a t e new e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s by t h e i n t e n d e d u s e r s w h i c h prompts t h e r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n , "Are t h e q u a l i t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h c u r r e n t l y p r o p o s e d a l t e r n a t e new e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r d o m e s t i c use t h o s e on w h i c h e x i s t i n g c h o i c e s o r p r e f e r e n c e s f o r f u e l t y p e s by h o u s e h o l d s a r e b a s e d ? " 1.2 B a s i c Hypotheses The f i r s t h y p o t h e s i s i s t h a t t h e o f t e n - c i t e d v i r t u e s of t h e commonly p r o p o s e d a l t e r n a t e new e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s ( e . g . s o l a r c o o k e r s , b i o g a s , and i m p r o v e d w o o d - b u r n i n g s t o v e s ) f o r d o m e s t i c use i n N i g e r i a and t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d as a whole, a r e n o t t h o s e on w h i c h e x i s t i n g c h o i c e s and p r e f e r e n c e s f o r f u e l t y p e s by h o u s e h o l d s a r e b a s e d . S e c o n d , r e l a t e d t o t h e a bove, i s t h e h y p o t h e s e s t h a t t h e commonly p r o p o s e d a l t e r n a t e new e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r d o m e s t i c use i n N i g e r i a do n o t a d e q u a t e l y r e f l e c t t h e d e s i r a b l e i n t r i n s i c 5 q u a l i t i e s o f f u e l s c h o s e n b y N i g e r i a n h o u s e h o l d s . T h i r d , i s t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t u r b a n i z a t i o n , r e i n f o r c e d b y r i s i n g i n c o m e , r e s u l t s i n i n c r e a s e s i n t h e d o m e s t i c l e v e l o f e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n i n g e n e r a l , a n d o f e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s s u c h a s p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s i n p a r t i c u l a r . 1 .3 O b j e c t i v e s Of The Study T h e o b j e c t i v e s o f t h i s s t u d y a r e : 1. T o e x a m i n e e n e r g y s u p p l y p r o b l e m s i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , w i t h e m p h a s i s o n N i g e r i a , a n d t o a n a l y s e t h e c o m m o n l y p r o p o s e d a l t e r n a t e e n e r g y p o l i c y p r e s c r i p t i o n s a n d t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s a r i s i n g f r o m s u c h p o l i c i e s . 2. T o e x a m i n e e x i s t i n g h o u s e h o l d e n e r g y u s e p a t t e r n s a n d p r e f e r e n c e s i n N i g e r i a , t h r o u g h c a s e s t u d i e s i n b o t h r u r a l a n d u r b a n s e t t i n g s . 3. T o i d e n t i f y f a c t o r s g o v e r n i n g t h e c h o i c e o f v a r i o u s f u e l t y p e s , a n d e x a m i n e t h e d e g r e e t o w h i c h t h e s e f a c t o r s a r e a d d r e s s e d i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a l t e r n a t e n e w e n e r g y s u p p l y t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r N i g e r i a . 4. T o d i s c u s s t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s f o r p o l i c y p r e s c r i p t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t e e n e r g y s u p p l y p o l i c i e s f o r N i g e r i a a n d o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , w h e r e a p p l i c a b l e . 1.4 B a s i c Assumptions o f The Study 1. E x p l o r a t i o n o f e n e r g y p o l i c y o p t i o n s f o r a d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y m u s t b e p r e c e d e d b y a n u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e 6 s o c i o - e c o n o m i c f a c t o r s which i n f l u e n c e e x i s t i n g energy use p a t t e r n s and use r p r e f e r e n c e s f o r a v a i l a b l e f u e l t y p e s . 2. I f new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s i n v o l v i n g biomass, b i o g a s , and s o l a r a r e t o be a c c e p t e d by the p e o p l e , the d e s i g n s of such a l t e r n a t i v e s must demonstrate q u a l i t i e s of f u e l use which the l o c a l p e o p l e choose i n t h e i r c u r r e n t use and p r e f e r e n c e s of a v a i l a b l e f u e l t y p e s . 3. T e c h n o l o g i c a l i n n o v a t i o n must be d r i v e n by u s e r s ' sense of needs, both monetary and nonmonetary. A l t h o u g h N i g e r i a may not a t f i r s t g l a n c e appear t y p i c a l of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s because of her endowment of d i v e r s e energy r e s o u r c e s , a n a l y s i s of the l i t e r a t u r e r e v e a l s t h a t N i g e r i a n s u p p l y problems m i r r o r the energy problems of o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , i n c l u d i n g p o t e n t i a l r e l i a n c e on n o n t r a d i t i o n a l nonrenewable energy s o u r c e s , r a p i d d e p l e t i o n of t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of energy, and the problem of i d e n t i f y i n g and a s s e s s i n g a l t e r n a t e energy s u p p l y s o u r c e s which a r e a c c e p t a b l e t o the c o u n t r y ' s c i t i z e n s . 1_.5 S i g n i f i c a n c e Of The Study T h i s s t u d y p r o v i d e s i n s i g h t i n t o major i s s u e s c o n c e r n i n g energy s u p p l y problems of N i g e r i a and the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d g e n e r a l l y . The s t u d y adds t o the body of knowledge used i n the s e a r c h f o r a p p r o p r i a t e energy p o l i c y o p t i o n s f o r the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . F o c u s i n g on user p r e f e r e n c e s f o r e x i s t i n g t r a d i t i o n a l and n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l t y p e s , the s t u d y h i g h l i g h t s i s s u e s t o be 7 emphasized i n f u t u r e r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s i n t h i s f i e l d . Energy i s of v i t a l importance t o the economies and b a l a n c e of payments of a l l n a t i o n s . The major g o a l of many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s t o a c h i e v e a c c e l e r a t e d economic and s o c i a l development, i n v o l v i n g the p r o v i s i o n of adequate q u a n t i t i e s of food f o r t h e i r c i t i z e n r y , p o p u l a t i o n c o n t r o l , r e d u c t i o n of r e g i o n a l d i s p a r i t i e s and i m m i g r a t i o n problems, e s t a b l i s h m e n t of e x p o r t and import s u b s t i t u t i o n i n d u s t r i e s , and an improved q u a l i t y of l i f e . The r e a l i z a t i o n of t h i s g o a l demands s u p p l i e s o f , and a c c e s s t o , the r i g h t energy s o u r c e s . The major emphasis of t h i s s tudy i s on the need t o a s c e r t a i n i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g p u b l i c v a l u e s or p r e f e r e n c e s p r i o r t o f o r m u l a t i o n of energy p o l i c y o p t i o n s . However, t h i s need a p p l i e s t o o t h e r p l a n n i n g p r a c t i c e s as w e l l , p a r t i c u l a r l y when they i n v o l v e the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . 1 . 6 Organization of The Study The s t u d y b e g i n s , i n Chapter 2, w i t h an e x a m i n a t i o n of r e l e v a n t l i t e r a t u r e d e a l i n g w i t h energy s u p p l y i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . Some of the problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h p o l i c y p r e s c r i p t i o n s f o r the T h i r d World a r e i d e n t i f i e d i n Chapter 3. Chapter 4 f o c u s e s on the energy s u p p l y s i t u a t i o n i n N i g e r i a , and p r e s e n t s a n a l y s i s of p o l i c i e s g o v e r n i n g t h o s e s u p p l i e s . The r e s e a r c h d e s i g n and methodology a r e p r e s e n t e d i n Chapter 5 . R e s u l t s of an a n a l y s i s of i n t e r v i e w q u e s t i o n n a i r e d a t a p e r t a i n i n g t o hou s e h o l d energy use p a t t e r n s and p r e f e r e n c e s i n N i g e r i a a r e p r e s e n t e d i n Chapter 6 , t o g e t h e r w i t h d i s c u s s i o n of t he r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s and t h e i r p o l i c y i m p l i c a t i o n s . The 8 f i n a l c h a p t e r i s a summary of the s t u d y , the r e s e a r c h e r ' s c o n c l u s i o n s and recommendations. PART ONE CHAPTER 2 ENERGY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Energy problems of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d have been i d e n t i f i e d by numerous s o u r c e s as c o n s i s t i n g of t h r e e major and i n t e r r e l a t e d a s p e c t s (FAO, 1983; D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , 1981a; C e c e l s k i e t a l . , 1979; World Bank, 1979a, 1980a; S m i l and Knowland, 1981; Eden e t a l . , 1981). F i r s t i s the growing dependence on f i n i t e and nonrenewable n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy t h a t i s p e t r o l e u m based. I n c r e a s e s i n the p r i c e of impor t e d o i l p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s have put a g r e a t s t r a i n on the b a l a n c e of payments, w i t h many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s s pending more than h a l f of t h e i r f o r e i g n exchange f o r hydro-carbon f u e l . Second a r e the problems caused by s h o r t a g e s of f i r e w o o d , the f u e l on which t h r e e - q u a r t e r s of the p o p u l a t i o n of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s depend f o r c o o k i n g and water h e a t i n g . These problems of growing dependence on nonrenewable p e t r o l e u m energy, and s h o r t a g e s of f i r e w o o d on which the m a j o r i t y of the p o p u l a t i o n of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s c u r r e n t l y depend, a r e compounded by c o n s t r a i n t s t o i n d i g e n o u s s u p p l i e s of o t h e r n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy r e s o u r c e s i n c l u d i n g c o a l , n a t u r a l gas, hydro, o i l s h a l e , o i l sands, and n u c l e a r energy. The t h i r d major a s p e c t of energy problems of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i s t h a t of i d e n t i f y i n g new energy s u p p l y o p t i o n s based on renewable r e s o u r c e s such as s o l a r , wind and biomass t h a t w i l l g a i n w i d e s p r e a d p u b l i c a c c e p t a n c e . T h i s d i s c u s s i o n w i l l be c o n f i n e d t o a re v i e w of l i t e r a t u r e 9 10 and analysis concerned with the three dominant elements of the debate over energy questions of the developing world. These include the nature and dimensions of the energy problem, remedies and prescriptions for a l l e v i a t i n g the problem, and problems or obstacles associated with commonly proposed new energy options. 2.1 T h e N a t u r e A n d D i m e n s i o n s O f T h e P r o b l e m As previously mentioned, the nature and dimensions of energy problems for the developing world relate to the potential for overwhelming dependence on nonrenewable petroleum energy resources, accompanied by the implications of high o i l prices. Second are problems related to shortages of firewood supplies. Third i s the problem of i d e n t i f y i n g and assessing alternate new energy supply sources with prospects for gaining public acceptance for their use. 2.1.1 D e p e n d e n c e On P e t r o l e u m E n e r g y R e s o u r c e s A n d H i g h O i l P r i c e s O i l and i t s by-products represent the major sources of nontraditional energy consumed in developing countries, accounting for as much as eighty percent of t o t a l nontraditional energy consumed annually (Dunkerley et a l . , 1981a). The potential for overwhelming dependence on petroleum energy resources by the developing world becomes apparent through analysis of i t s energy use patterns. 2_. 1_. 1_. 1_ Energy Use Patterns In The Developing World Data for a study of energy use patterns in the developing 11 w o r l d i s p r o v i d e d by the U n i t e d N a t i o n s (1985) i n a p u b l i c a t i o n e n t i t l e d Energy B a l a n c e and E l e c t r i c i t y P r o f i l e s 1902. The a n a l y s i s i s based on d a t a c o n c e r n i n g f o r t y - e i g h t s e l e c t e d d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s r e p r e s e n t i n g a wide range of per c a p i t a incomes, development l e v e l s , and r e s o u r c e endowments. Energy f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and households a r e examined; the a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r i s e x c l u d e d o n l y because of the l a c k of d a t a . T a b l e 2.1 p r e s e n t s the p r o p o r t i o n of t o t a l energy consumption w i t h i n major s e c t o r s of each d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y which i s r e p r e s e n t e d by n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy, and how g r e a t a share i s c l a i m e d by petroleum-based energy, based on 1982 f i g u r e s . In a l l but a few c a s e s , n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy which i s m o s t l y petroleum-based a c c o u n t s f o r over f i f t y p e r c e n t of t o t a l energy consumed i n the i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r . I n d u s t r i a l t e c h n o l o g i e s which were d e v e l o p e d i n the 1950s and 1960s t e n d t o use n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy r e s o u r c e s r a t h e r than t r a d i t i o n a l energy s o u r c e s i n t h e i r p r e s e n t form, because of the f o r m e r ' s g r e a t e r f l e x i b i l i t y . Growth i n t h i s s e c t o r w i l l r e s u l t i n i n c r e a s e d dependence on n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy r e s o u r c e s such as o i l and e l e c t r i c i t y which i s m o s t l y p e t r o l e u m - b a s e d , and t h o s e c o u n t r i e s which do not have adequate domestic p e t r o l e u m energy r e s o u r c e s w i l l be f o r c e d t o compete w i t h the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d f o r s u p p l i e s of p e t r o l e u m . Net o i l e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , on the o t h e r hand, w i l l be f a c e d w i t h the dilemma of e i t h e r m a i n t a i n i n g or i n c r e a s i n g t h e i r l e v e l of o i l e x p o r t s i n the i n t e r e s t of o b t a i n i n g more c a p i t a l f o r i n d u s t r i a l development, or d e c r e a s i n g the volume of t h e i r o i l e x p o r t s i n the i n t e r e s t of c o n s e r v i n g s u p p l i e s f o r s e r v i n g expanding l o c a l 12 T A B L E 2.1 SHARES OF NONTRADITIONAL AND PETROLEUM-BASED ENERGY IN TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN MAJOR SECTORS OF INDIVIDUAL DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR 1982 NONTRADITIONAL EN^ AS 'A OF TOTAL PETROLEUM-BASED ENL AS X OF TOTAL COUNTRY INDUSTRY TRANSPOR- HOUSE- INDUSTRY TRANSPGR- HOUSEHOLD TAT I ON HOLD TAT I ON Argent i na 90 .4 100.0 72.8 70 .0 99.5 58.9 Bangladesh 86.5 100.0 49.6 50.7 100 .0 4.7 Barbados 59.8 100.0 100 .0 19.8 100.0 .69.8 Boli w i a 63.8 100.0 49.6 55.9 100.0 42.8 Braz i1 62.6 99.9 23.7 31 .0 99.5 14.0 Chile 100.0 100.0 20 .2 52.8 98.7 9.8 Columbi a 86.2 100.0 18.1 37.4 100.0 0.2 Costa Rica 34.0 100.0 25.5 1 .3 99.8 8.3 Cyprus 100.0 100.0 92.0 90.2 99.8 67.8 Ecuador . 83.0 100.0 17.2 72.6 100.0 10.7 Egypt 94.1 100.0 100 .0 75.7 99.2 80 .0 El Salvador 57.9 100.0 100.0 44.3 100.0 2.8 F i j i 80 .7 100 .0 30.5 31 .0 100 .0 23.4 Gabon 98.3 100.0 100 .0 93.5 100 .0 56.3 Honduras 43.5 100 .0 9.5 34.8 100 .0 7.1 Hong Kong 100.0 100.0 90.1 77.2 99.7 51 .2 Indi a 89.4 100.0 17.2 12.2 67.2 12.9 Indonesia 90.7 100.0 14.8 84.7 99.7 13.8 Israel 100.0 100.0 99.2 78.0 100 .0 62.9 Ivory Coast 68.2 100.0 5.8 53.0 90 .8 4.4 Jama i ca 93.9 100.0 90 .4 85.1 100.0 0.0 Jordan 100 .0 100.0 100 .0 91 .5 100 .0 0.0 Kenya 58.8 100.0 0.8 37.2 98.9 0.2 Korea Rep. 100.0 100.0 87.0 56.3 99.3 17.3 Kuwa i t 100.0 100.0 100 .0 76.7 100.0 6.6 Ma 1 aw i 8.0 100.0 1 .1 0.1 100.0 0.7 Morocco 100.0 100.0 40.0 85.5 100 .0 19.7 Nepal 86.2 100.0 1.1 30.4 91 .9 0.9 Ni caragua 29.7 100.0 7.1 20.6 100 .0 3.4 Niger 100.0 100.0 0.7 57.6 100 .0 0.5 N i ger i a 99.3 100.0 4.8 95.3 99.4 2.9 Pak i stan 88.6 100.0 26.7 56.5 100 .0 23.8 Panama 55.6 100.0 100.0 48.8 100.0 57.4 Papua New Gu i nea 49.5 100.0 2.3 23.6 100.0 1 . 4 Peru 87.1 100.0 41 .5 62.3 100 .0 34.8 Ph i 1 i pp ines 65.6 100.0 20.1 44.5 100.0 17.1 Qatar 100.0 100.0 98.0 94.0 100 .0 24.0 Saudi Arabia 100.0 100.0 100 .0 91 .9 100 .0 37.S S i ngapore 100.0 100.0 99.4 93.7 100 .0 92.5 Solomon Is. 100.0 100.0 3.6 97.3 100 .0 2.6 Sri Lanka 43.2 100.0 15.3 32.2 100 .0 13.9 Tha i1 and 59.6 100.0 6.4 37.7 100 .0 3.3 Trinidad and Tobago 95.6 100.0 92.1 85.9 10C.0 10.0 Tun i s i a 100.0 100.0 36.7 80.1 99.4 36.7 Uraguay 72.5 100.0 55.7 54.2 99.7 32.8 Venezuela 97.3 100.0 93.6 81 .3 100 .0 68.2 Zamb i a 93.5 100.0 6.4 20 .5 100 .0 0.0 Z imbabwe 80.6 100.0 7.0 5.1 100.0 0 .4 Source: United Nations. 1985. Eneroy Balances And E' 1ec tr i c i ty Prof i I es 1982 New York: United Nat i ons. 13 demands. The h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r s i n the m a j o r i t y of the f o r t y - e i g h t d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s s t u d i e d , r e l y p r i m a r i l y on t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of energy. In the p o o r e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s such as Honduras, Kenya, M a l a w i , N e p a l , N i c a r a g u a , N i g e r , Zambia and Papua New G u i n e a , t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s account f o r as much as n i n e t y p e r c e n t of t o t a l energy consumption by the h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r . Not o n l y do t h e s e c o u n t r i e s l a c k p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s f o r use by h o u s e h o l d s , but as w i l l be shown l a t e r , they a l s o f a c e a c t u a l or p o t e n t i a l fuelwood s u p p l y problems. As i n the d e v e l o p e d w o r l d , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s depend almost e x c l u s i v e l y on n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy s o u r c e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y p e t r o l e u m which a c c o u n t s f o r over n i n e t y p e r c e n t of t o t a l energy consumption. T h i s s i t u a t i o n i s u n l i k e l y t o change so l o n g as a u t o m o b i l e s , l o c o m o t i v e s and a i r c r a f t s c o n t i n u e t o be powered by p e t r o l e u m energy. As i s shown i n T a b l e 2.2 e l e c t r i c i t y and c o a l c o n t r i b u t e l i t t l e t o the i n d u s t r i a l , h o u s e h o l d , and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r s of d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d energy consumptions r e l a t i v e t o the r o l e p l a y e d by p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s . T h i s may be because of the c o s t s and t e c h n i c a l d i f f i c u l t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the e x p o r t of t h e s e f u e l s t o a l l but c o n t i g e o u s a r e a s . S m i l and Knowland (1981:9) p o i n t out t h a t , [Crude o i l ] can be c o n v e n i e n t l y s t o r e d f o r l o n g p e r i o d s of time u n l i k e c o a l , n a t u r a l gas, or e l e c t r i c i t y , and i t i s e a s i l y and i n e x p e n s i v e l y t r a n s p o r t e d i n l a r g e or s m a l l q u a n t i t i e s ; and t h r o u g h r e f i n i n g , of c o u r s e , i t can be broken i n t o a v a r i e t y of s p e c i f i c e n d - p r o d u c t s h a v i n g a v e r y wide range of f i n a l u s es. P r e c i s e l y t h e s e r e l a t i v e advantages over most o t h e r energy s o u r c e s have made crude o i l the u n i v e r s a l f u e l of c h o i c e f o r most modern economic needs. 14 T A B L E 2.2 SHARES OF ELECTRIC AND COAL ENERGY IN TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN MAJOR SECTORS Of INDIVIDUAL DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR 1982 " ELECTRICITY AS X OF TOTAL COAL AS V. OF TOTAL COUNTRY INDUSTRY TRANSPOR- HOUSE- INDUSTRY TRANSPOR- HOUSE-TAT I ON HOLD TAT I ON HOLD A r g e n t i n a 16 .6 0 . 2 14.0 3.1 0 .0 0 .0 B a n g l a d e s h 17 .5 0 . 0 0 . 3 1 8 . 3 0 . 0 0 . 0 B a r b a d o s 4 1 . 2 0 .0 3 0 . 2 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 B o l i v i a 7 .7 0 . 0 6 . 8 0 . 2 0 .0 0 .0 B r a z i1 I S . 5 0 . 4 9 . 7 13.1 0 .0 0 .0 C h i l e 30.1 0 . 7 10.0 17.1 0 . 6 0 . 4 Colufflbi a 9 .0 0 .0 17 .8 3 9 . 7 0 .0 5 .4 C o s t a R i c a 3 2 . 7 0 . 2 1 1 . 3 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 C y p r u s 9 . 8 0 . 2 3 6 . 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 E c u a d o r 10.4 0 .0 6 . 5 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 E g y p t 11 .7 0 .0 0 . 0 6 . 8 0.1 0 .0 E l S a l v a d o r 13 .7 0 . 0 3 . 3 0 . 0 0 .0 0 . 0 F i j i 2 7 . 5 0 .0 7.1 2 2 . 2 0 . 0 0 .0 Gabon 4 . 8 0 .0 4 3 . 7 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 Honduras 8.6 0 . 0 2.4 0 . 0 0 .0 0 .0 Hong Kong 2 1 . 7 0 . 3 39 .0 1.9 0 . 0 0 .0 I n d i a 10.6 1.2 1.6 6 6 . 6 3 1 . 6 2 .6 I n d o n e s i a 4 . 5 0 . 0 0 . 9 1.5 0 . 3 0 .0 I s r a e l 21 .9 0 .0 3 7 . 2 0.1 0 .0 0 . 6 I v o r y C o a s t 15.1 9 . 2 1 .4 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 Jama i ca 8 . 7 0 .0 100.0 0.1 0 .0 0 .0 J o r d a n 18.5 0 .0 0 . 6 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 Kenya 8 . 5 0 . 0 100.0 3.1 1.1 0.01 K o r e a Rep . 100.0 0 .0 9 3 . 4 2 4 . 5 0 . 3 0 . 7 Kuwa i t 19 .2 0 . 7 4 . 6 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 Ma iawi 2 .9 0 .0 0 . 5 6 . 8 0 .0 0 .0 M o r o c c o 11 .7 0 .0 2 0 . 3 1.1 0 .0 0 .0 Ne p a l 0 .4 0 . 0 0 . 2 4 9 . 3 8 . 3 0 .0 N i c a r a g u a 9 .0 0 .0 3 .7 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 N i ger 18 .3 0 . 0 0 . 2 0 .0 0 . 0 0 .0 N i g e r i a 3.1 0 .0 1 .8 1 .4 0 . 6 0 .0 Pak i s t a n 10 .8 0 . 0 2 .9 2 0 . 8 0 .0 0 .0 Panama 6.9 0 . 0 4 2 . 6 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 Papua New 6u i nea 2 5 . 9 0 .0 0 . 9 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 P e r u 19 .7 0 .0 6 . 7 5.1 0 .0 0 . 0 Ph i 1 i p p i n e s 13.6 0 .0 3 . 9 7 .4 0 .0 0 .0 Q a t a r 6 .0 0 . 0 7 6 . 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 S a u d i A r a b i a 8.1 0 .0 6 2 . 2 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 S i n g a p o r e 6 . 3 0 . 0 6 . 9 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 S o l onion I s l a n d s 2 .7 0 .0 1.1 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 S r i Lanka 8.1 0 . 0 1.5 2 .9 0 .0 0 .0 T h a i l a n d 19.4 0 .0 3.1 2.4 0.0 0.1 T r i n i dad and Tobago 9 .6 0 .0 82.1 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 Tun i s i a 10 .3 0 . 6 0 . 7 9 . 5 0 .0 0 . 3 Uraguay 17.7 0 . 3 2 2 . 9 0 . 5 0 .0 0 .0 V e n e z u e l a 14 .3 0 .0 2 5 . 4 1.8 0 .0 0 .0 Zambi a 3 8 . 9 0 . 0 16 .2 31 .5 0 .0 0 . 2 Z irababwe 2 2 . 7 0 .0 6 . 6 5 2 . 8 30 .1 0 .0 S o u r c e i U n i t e d N a t i o n s . 1985. E n e r g y B a l a n c e s And E l e c t r i c i t y  P r o f i l e s 1982. N e w Y o r k t U n i t e d Nat i o n s . 15 The i n t e r r e l a t e d n a t u r e of the i n d u s t r i a l , h o u s e h o l d , and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r s of a c o u n t r y ' s economy has some s e r i o u s i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . I n d u s t r i a l growth, which i s l a r g e l y dependent on p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s , i s almost c e r t a i n t o l e a d t o an i n c r e a s e i n the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n of goods and s e r v i c e s which i n t u r n i s s o l e l y dependent on p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s . S i m i l a r l y , as h o u s e h o l d income i n c r e a s e s t h r o u g h i n d u s t r i a l growth w i t h i n the c o u n t r y , t h e r e i s a s t r o n g tendency f o r h o u s e h o l d s t o become dependent on n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s such as kerosene f o r c o o k i n g p u r p o s e s , i n p l a c e of t r a d i t i o n a l ones, and on e l e c t r i c i t y which i s u s u a l l y p e t r o l e u m - b a s e d , f o r expanding demands f o r r e f r i g e r a t i o n , e n t e r t a i n m e n t , and a i r c o n d i t i o n i n g . The consequence of dependence on p e t r o l e u m energy i s made e v i d e n t or m a n i f e s t e d by the a f f e c t s of h i g h o i l p r i c e s w hich were i n p l a c e from 1973 t o 1985. 2.1.1.2 H i g h O i l P r i c e s In 1973/74 the o i l embargo and the subsequent o i l p r i c e f i x i n g by the O r g a n i z a t i o n of P e t r o l e u m E x p o r t i n g C o u n t r i e s (OPEC) l e d t o sharp i n c r e a s e s i n w o r l d o i l t r a d i n g p r i c e s , which p e r s i s t e d on t i l l 1985. For example, the p r i c e of t y p i c a l OPEC crude A r a b i a n l i g h t o i l i n c r e a s e d from U S $ 2 . 4 / b a r r e l i n 1970 t o U S $ 3 5 / b a r r e l i n 1981. R e c u r r e n t s h o r t a g e s of o i l s u p p l y i n 1973/74 and 1979/80, l e d t o a p r o f o u n d and e n d u r i n g energy c r i s i s . The consequences of sharp o i l p r i c e i n c r e a s e s on the w o r l d economies have been f a r r e a c h i n g , but t h e i r g r e a t e s t impact i s f e l t by the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s f o r whom low c o s t o i l i s a c r u c i a l i n g r e d i e n t i n i n d u s t r i a l development (Bach and 16 Mathews, 1979). A f t e r e x p l o r i n g t h i s s i t u a t i o n S i d d i g i and Hein (1977:164) c o n c l u d e t h a t , Many c o u n t r i e s , e s p e c i a l l y i n the T h i r d W o r l d , had t o cu t back on t h e i r i m p o r t s of f u e l s as t h e i r b a l a n c e of payments plunged d e e p l y i n t o the r e d . The r e d u c t i o n i n energy use c o n t r i b u t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y t o economic slowdowns i n the a f f e c t e d c o u n t r i e s . Even i n n a t i o n s which d i d not a c t u a l l y c u t back on o i l i m p o r t s , the r a t e of growth i n energy consumption was a t a l e v e l lower than h i s t o r i c norms, as was the growth i n the economy. W i t h p a r t i c u l a r r e f e r e n c e t o d e v e l o p i n g A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s , Baker (1977:192-193) c o n c u r s w i t h such f i n d i n g s when he n o t e s t h a t , A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s f a c e l a r g e balance-of-payments d e f i c i t s , not o n l y because of the i n c r e a s e d c o s t of o i l , but a l s o as a r e s u l t of the c o n c o m i t a n t r i s e i n the p r i c e of manufactured goods i m p o r t e d from the d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . These d e f i c i t s can o n l y be c o v e r e d by f o r e i g n b o r r o w i n g , and t h i s i n t u r n a g g r a v a t e s the a l r e a d y a c u t e debt problem. To make m a t t e r s worse, the r e c e s s i o n i n Europe and the U n i t e d S t a t e s has reduced the demand f o r A f r i c a n raw m a t e r i a l s , t h e r e b y d e c r e a s i n g t h e i r e x p o r t v a l u e . In a d d i t i o n , many c o u n t r i e s have been p l a g u e d by p r o l o n g e d drought and poor h a r v e s t , and t h i s has n e c e s s i t a t e d the i m p o r t a t i o n of food a t h i g h p r i c e s . A f t e r the 1973-74 sharp o i l p r i c e i n c r e a s e s the combined d e f i c i t of the l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s jumped from US$9 b i l l i o n i n 1973 t o $37 b i l l i o n i n 1975. I t dropped t o $22 b i l l i o n i n 1977 as a r e s u l t of the w o r l d i n d u s t r i a l r e c o v e r y , but i n c r e a s e d t o $27.5 b i l l i o n i n 1979. The e x t e r n a l debt of t h e s e l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s has been i n c r e a s i n g s t e a d i l y , and b o r r o w i n g from banks has been the main so u r c e of f i n a n c e . N e v e r t h e l e s s i t i s becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y d i f f i c u l t f o r many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s t o prove themselves c r e d i t worthy. T a k i n g i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n the i n c r e a s e i n t h e i r n a t i o n a l r e s e r v e s , the net i n d e b t e d n e s s of the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s r o s e from $3 b i l l i o n i n 1974 t o $44 b i l l i o n i n September 1979 ( P e t r o l e u m E c o n o m i s t , 1979a). I n c r e a s e d o i l p r i c e s have p l a c e d a s t r a i n on t r a d i t i o n a l 17 s o u r c e s of energy, such as f i r e w o o d and c h a r c o a l , and have l e d to e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e g r a d a t i o n . D u n k e r l e y e t a l . (1981a:6) d e s c r i b e the p r o c e s s when they say, In the p a s t , as t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s became more " e x p e n s i v e " e i t h e r because t h e i r c o l l e c t i o n r e q u i r e d i n c r e a s e d e f f o r t s ( f o r example, l o n g e r d a i l y walks t o f o r a g e f o r f i r e w o o d ) or because they became p a r t l y a p p r o p r i a t e d and c o m m e r c i a l i z e d f o r cash s a l e - they were r e p l a c e d by commercial f u e l s , e s p e c i a l l y f o r c o o k i n g and l i g h t i n g , f i r s t by kerosene and s u b s e q u e n t l y by b o t t l e d gas and e l e c t r i c i t y . W i t h the quantum jumps i n o i l and gas p r i c e s , t h e s e t y p e s of f u e l s u c c e s s i o n have become more c o s t l y , p l a c i n g s t i l l f u r t h e r s t r a i n on t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s . Such s t r a i n s may l e a d t o v i c i o u s c i r c l e s of e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e g r a d a t i o n : the h e i g h t e n e d b u r n i n g of c a t t l e dung and v e g e t a b l e wastes, d e p l e t i n g the s o i l of needed n u t r i e n t s and sometimes a d d i t i o n a l d e f o r e s t a t i o n l e a d i n g t o s o i l e r o s i o n and d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n , f o u l i n g of downstream w a t e r s , and s i l t a t i o n of r e s e r v o i r s . They a l s o l e a d i n some c a s e s t o reduced amounts of c o o k i n g and lower n u t r i t i o n a l s t a n d a r d s . The problems of wood f u e l and o i l a r e complementary, as one s c a r c i t y r e i n f o r c e s the o t h e r . The problem of h i g h o i l p r i c e s a f f e c t s d i f f e r e n t d e v e l o p i n g r e g i o n s i n v a r y i n g ways. As the World Bank (1980a:2) n o t e s , In d e s i g n i n g p o l i c i e s t o h e l p r e s o l v e i t s energy problems, e v e r y c o u n t r y f a c e s a unique s e t of c o n d i t i o n s , i n c l u d i n g i t s l e v e l of income and degree of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n , i t s energy r e s o u r c e endowment, the r e l a t i v e importance of commercial and t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s , i t s degree of dependence on p e t r o l e u m i m p o r t s and o t h e r f a c t o r s . But s i n c e the r i s e i n the p r i c e of p e t r o l e u m , the degree of dependence on p e t r o l e u m i m p o r t s has become the most i m p o r t a n t s i n g l e f a c t o r . For the purposes of t h i s d i s c u s s i o n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e grouped i n t o OPEC members, non-OPEC members which a r e net o i l e x p o r t i n g , and net o i l i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s . H i g h O i l P r i c e s And OPEC W i t h i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d a r e the t h i r t e e n c o u n t r i e s 18 which make up OPEC. Among the l a r g e s t s u p p l i e r s of p e t r o l e u m , t h e s e c o u n t r i e s dominated the c u r r e n t g l o b a l energy scene between 1973 and 1981. OPEC c o n s i s t s of A l g e r i a , Gabon, I r a n , I r a q , K u w a i t , L i b y a , Q a t a r , Saudi A r a b i a , U n i t e d Arab E m i r a t e s , V e n e z u e l a , Ecuador, I n d o n e s i a and N i g e r i a . R e l a t i v e t o o t h e r OPEC n a t i o n s , N i g e r i a and I n d o n e s i a p o s s e s s s m a l l o i l r e s e r v e s . G i v e n the l a r g e p o p u l a t i o n of the s e two c o u n t r i e s , i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t t hey w i l l s u s t a i n b oth l a r g e s c a l e e x p o r t s and s u b s t a n t i a l domestic consumption of p e t r o l e u m i n the next decade u n l e s s s i g n i f i c a n t new d i s c o v e r i e s a r e made or a l t e r n a t e s o u r c e s d e v e l o p e d . Moreover, because the l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of crude o i l produced i s e x p o r t e d t o o b t a i n f o r e i g n exchange, many net o i l e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d e x p e r i e n c e l o c a l s h o r t a g e s of p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s . For example, as Ngoka (1981:116) remarks, A l t h o u g h N i g e r i a produces o i l , v e r y o f t e n , [ s i c ] the c o u n t r y e x p e r i e n c e s s e r i o u s o i l problems. S e v e r a l p e t r o l s t a t i o n s a r e out of s u p p l i e s and m o t o r i s t s spend s e v e r a l hours h u n t i n g f o r f i l l i n g s t a t i o n s w i t h s u p p l i e s . These o f t e n d i s r u p t the economic l i f e of the community. Most peop l e a r e not i n t h e i r o f f i c e s as they may be l o o k i n g f o r f u e l or a r e unable t o get around because of empty p e t r o l t a n k s i n t h e i r c a r s . Moss and Morgan (1981:11) p o i n t out the reasons why o i l r i c h d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s f a c e a domesti c energy c r i s i s : Even o i l r i c h l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s l i k e N i g e r i a f a c e an energy problem because h i g h w o r l d o i l p r i c e s encourage h i g h o i l , kerosene and p e t r o l p r i c e s i n N i g e r i a ... Moreover, l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s have l i m i t e d and o f t e n i n e f f i c i e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n systems which make even l o c a l l y r e f i n e d o i l e x p e n s i v e by the time the p r o d u c t reaches the consumer. T h e i r consumption tends t o be s m a l l and d i s p e r s e d so t h a t the more p r o f i t a b l e and e a s i e r c o u r s e i s t o e x p o r t r a t h e r than t r y t o d e v e l o p the home market, which i s o f t e n a slow and e x p e n s i v e p r o c e s s . H i g h o i l p r i c e s have v a r y i n g impacts on the n a t i o n a l 19 economies of OPEC members. On the one hand, OPEC p r i c e i n c r e a s e s g e n e r a t e , i n a b s o l u t e terms, h i g h o i l revenues f o r the o i l p r o d u c i n g c o u n t r i e s . For i n s t a n c e , t o t a l o i l revenue r e c e i p t s by OPEC members between 1972 and 1977 r e g i s t e r e d an i n c r e a s e of about 790 p e r c e n t , from a p p r o x i m a t e l y US$14 b i l l i o n t o US$128 b i l l i o n . S i n c e t o t a l OPEC e x p o r t s i n c r e a s e d by o n l y f o u r t e e n p e r c e n t , from 25.5 t o 29.1 m i l l i o n b a r r e l s per day, the g e n e r a l surge i n cash f l o w was almost t o t a l l y due t o p r i c e i n c r e a s e s r a t h e r than i n c r e a s e s i n p r o d u c t i o n . These o i l revenues e n a b l e OPEC members t o n o u r i s h and m a i n t a i n economic development of t h e i r c o u n t r i e s . Yet o i l p r i c e i n c r e a s e s a r e accompanied by c o r r e s p o n d i n g i n c r e a s e s i n the p r i c e of goods and s e r v i c e s b e i n g i m p o r t e d by t h e s e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . W i t h i n i n d u s t r i a l i z e d n a t i o n s the h i g h c o s t of imported energy c o n t r i b u t e s t o sha r p i n c r e a s e s i n the p r i c e of manufactured goods which, when imported i n l a r g e q u a n t i t i e s by OPEC members, erode the o i l revenues of thes e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . H i g h energy p r i c e s c o n t r i b u t e t o economic r e c e s s i o n which b e g i n s i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s , t h e r e b y r e d u c i n g the l e v e l of o i l i m p o r t s and, i n t u r n , the income of OPEC members. In a d d i t i o n , h i g h o i l p r i c e s a c c e l e r a t e the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of programs l e a d i n g t o reduced dependence on OPEC f o r w o r l d o i l consumption, as i l l u s t r a t e d i n T a b l e 2.3. In a b s o l u t e terms, OPEC o i l p r o d u c t i o n dropped from 28.8 m i l l i o n i n 1970 - 1979 t o 18 m i l l i o n i n 1982 (see Ta b l e 2.4). Amu (1982a:9-10) demonstrates the c r i t i c a l consequences of h i g h o i l p r i c e s on the OPEC o i l market when he wrote t h a t , U n doubtedly, h i g h o i l p r i c e s have s e t i n motion energy c o n s e r v a t i o n measures, development of TABLE 2.3 OIL PRICE CHANGE, AND OPEC'S OIL AS PERCENT OF WORLD OIL CONSUMPTION TOTAL WORLD YEAR OIL CONSUMPTION MBD PERCENT CHANGE OPEC SUPPLY MBD PERCENT CHANGE POSTED PRICE OF A TYPICAL OPEC CRUDE ARABIAN LIGHT OIL USE/BBL PERCENT CHANGE OPEC'S SUPPLY AS % OF^WORLD'S OIL CONSUMPTION 1967 35.6 6.9 16.8 6.3 2.2 — 47.2 1968 38.9. 9.3 18.7 11.3 2.2 0.0 48.1 1969 42.7 9.8 20.9 11.8 2.2 0.0 48.9 1970 45.7 7.0 23.4 12.0 2.4 9.1 51.2 1971 48.5 6.1 25.3 8.1 3.2 33.3 52.1 1972 51.2 5.6 27.1 7.1 3.4 6.3 52.9 1973 56.0 9.4 31.0 14.4 8.4 157.1 55.4 1974 54.2 -3.2 30.7 -1.0. 11.7 39.3 56.6 1975 53.0 -2.2 27.7 -11.7 13.7 17.1 51.0 1976 57.9 9.2 30.6 12.9 14.0 2.2 52.8 1977 59.9 3.5 31.9 4.2 15.5 10.7 53.3 1978 62.0 3.5 29.1 -8.9 14.9 -3.9 46.9 1979 65.0 5.2 31.0 6.7 33.0 121.5 47.4 1980 60.0 -27.2 25.0 -18.1 44.4 34.5 42.3 1981 56.9 - 4.6 23.0 -9.4 35.0 -21.2 40.4 Sources: OPEC, 1982. OPEC b u l l e t i n . XIII(8). September. Vienna, A u s t r i a . L. AMU, 1982. O i l g l u t and the Nigerian economy. NAPETCOR. 3(4) . pp 3-11. Lagos: Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation. M. Olarunfemi, 1982. Nig e r i a and OPEC. NAPETCOR. 3(2) pp 3-9. Lagos: Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation. 21 TABLE 2.4 OPEC COUNTRIES' AVERAGE DAILY PRODUCTION FROM 1970-1979, AND THE LEVEL OF PRODUCTION QUOTAS IN 1982 Count r y Average P r o d u c t i o n ( 000 B/D) 1970 - 1979 % Share of OPEC P r o d u c t i o n 1982 P r o d u c t i o n Quota ('000 B/D) 1982 P r o d u c t i o n Quotas As % Of Average P r o d u c t i o n A l g e r i a Ecuador Gabon I n d o n e s i a I ran I r a q Kuwait L i b y a N i g e r i a Qatar Saudi A r a b i a U A E V e n e z u e l a N e u t r a l Zone 1,049.5 282.7 188.2 1 ,469.8 4,500.2 2,203.4 2,249.4 1,845.7 1,973.5 ' 482.8 8,459.1 1,688.0 2,528.0 3.63 0.98 0.65 5.08 15.56 7.62 7.78 6.34 6.82 1 .67 29.25 5.84 8.74 650.0 200.0 150.0 1,300.0 1,200.0 1,200.0 650.0 750.0 1,300.0 300.0 7,500.0 1 ,000.0 1,500.0 300.0 18,000.0 61 .9 70.7 79.7 88.4 26.7 54.5 28.9 40.6 65.9 62.1 88.7 59.2 59.3 T o t a l 28,920.3 100.00 62.5 Sou r c e : N a t i o n a l Concord, A p r i l 14, 1982, Lagos, N i g e r i a , p. 4 22 a l t e r n a t i v e energy s o u r c e s such as n u c l e a r , s o l a r energy, and syncrudes such as o i l and gas from c o a l and biomass. In a d d i t i o n , i t has a c c e l e r a t e d the development of h i t h e r t o uneconomic or m a r g i n a l o i l f i e l d s i n non-OPEC a r e a s e.g. B r i t a i n and Norway who p r e v i o u s l y were consumers a r e now e x p o r t e r s i n c o m p e t i t i o n w i t h OPEC o i l . S i m i l a r l y , t he u n c e r t a i n t i e s r e g a r d i n g o i l s u p p l y due t o g e o - p o l i t i c a l s i t u a t i o n i n the M i d d l e E a s t has [ s i c ] l e d t o a massive b u i l d up i n o i l s t o c k s . Thus a s i t u a t i o n of near o i l s h o r t a g e of 1979 was t u r n e d t o one not o n l y of s u r p l u s o i l f l o a t i n g i n the market today but l a t e r t o a p o s s i b l e downward c a s c a d i n g of o i l p r i c e s . There a r e now seven t y o i l p r o d u c i n g c o u n t r i e s i n the w o r l d o n l y t h i r t e e n of which a r e OPEC members. These OPEC c o u n t r i e s c u r r e n t l y account f o r j u s t o n e - t h i r d of t o t a l g l o b a l o i l p r o d u c t i o n , compared t o 53 p e r c e n t of w o r l d o i l p r o d u c t i o n i n 1973, and 48 p e r c e n t i n 1979. Moreover, crude o i l p r i c e s which were about $31 a b a r r e l i n l a t e 1985, now a r e about h a l f t h a t p r i c e . As a r e s u l t , o n l y t h o s e OPEC members which have s p a r s e p o p u l a t i o n and l a r g e f i n a n c i a l r e s e r v e s do not f a c e d i f f i c u l t i e s f i n a n c i n g t h e i r enormous and a m b i t i o u s development p l a n s . The o t h e r s s u f f e r from i n c r e a s i n g d e f i c i t s and e x t e r n a l b o r r o w i n g , e x p e r i e n c e d i f f i c u l t i e s s e r v i c i n g c u r r e n t d e b t s , and a r e v i c t i m s of r i s i n g i n f l a t i o n . The s i t u a t i o n i s compounded by the f a c t t h a t some of those d e b t o r OPEC c o u n t r i e s a r e almost t o t a l l y dependent on o i l e x p o r t s f o r t h e i r f o r e i g n exchange e a r n i n g s . For i n s t a n c e V e n e z u e l a , which i s $35 b i l l i o n i n d e b t , depends on o i l e x p o r t s f o r about 95 p e r c e n t of i t s e x p o r t revenue. N i g e r i a , which i s $10 b i l l i o n i n d e b t , depends on o i l a c c o u n t s f o r about 80 p e r c e n t of i t s f o r e i g n exchange revenue, w h i l e Ecuador, which owes $7 b i l l i o n , r e l i e s on o i l f o r about 45 t o 60 p e r c e n t of i t s e x p o r t e a r n i n g s . Many of the d e b t o r OPEC o i l p r o d u c e r s a l r e a d y were i n near f i n a n c i a l c r i s i s f o l l o w i n g 23 the r e c e s s i o n of the e a r l y 1980s, and the o i l p r i c e f a l l has s e v e r e l y a f f e c t e d them. As a r e s u l t , many OPEC c o u n t r i e s not o n l y l a c k the c a p i t a l f o r o i l e x p l o r a t i o n and development of o t h e r n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy r e s o u r c e s , but now f a c e s t r o n g e r p r e s s u r e s t o e x p o r t r a t h e r than c o n s e r v e t h e i r r a p i d l y d e p l e t i n g p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s because they have s t a k e d t h e i r economic f u t u r e on s a l e s of p e t r o l e u m . Non-OPEC Net O i l E x p o r t i n g D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s There a r e t h i r t e e n c o u n t r i e s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d which a r e not OPEC members but which a r e net o i l e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s . These i n c l u d e A n g o l a , B a h r a i n , B o l i v i a , B r u n e i , Egypt, M a l a y s i a , M e x i c o , S y r i a , T r i n i d a d and Tabago, I v o r y C o a s t , T u n i s i a , Cameroon and Z a i r e . W i t h the e x c e p t i o n of Mexic o , t h e s e c o u n t r i e s have r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l r e s e r v e s of o i l . H i g h o i l p r i c e s have f a c i l i t a t e d e x p l o r a t i o n and development of o i l w i t h i n t h e s e a r e a s , f i n a n c e d t h r o u g h f o r e i g n b o r r o w i n g which i s s e r v i c e d by e a r n i n g s from o i l e x p o r t s . Domestic consumption i s s a c r i f i c e d i n an e f f o r t t o f i n a n c e l o a n s and needed f o r e i g n c u r r e n c y f o r the i m p o r t a t i o n of s k i l l s , equipment and t e c h n o l o g y n e c e s s a r y t o n o u r i s h and m a i n t a i n t h e i r modern economies. In many i n s t a n c e s t h i s group of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s f a c e s problems s i m i l a r t o those e x p e r i e n c e d by OPEC members i n terms of a d j u s t i n g t h e i r economies t o h i g h energy p r i c e s . As i s noted by the World Bank (1980a:3), Most of them need more c a p i t a l than they can p r o v i d e from t h e i r own s a v i n g s . W h i l e t h e i r o i l e x p o r t s l e s s e n the b a l a n c e of payments c o n s t r a i n t , they too must use energy as e f f i c i e n t l y as p o s s i b l e , t o maximize t h e i r 24 e x p o r t e a r n i n g s and t o e x t e n d the p r o d u c t i v e l i f e of t h e i r r e s e r v e s . H i g h e r energy p r i c e s a l s o a f f e c t t h e i r c o m p a r a t i v e advantage, investment r e q u i r e m e n t s and i n t e r s e c t o r a l p r i o r i t i e s . Non-OPEC o i l p r o d u c i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s r e p r e s e n t a s i g n i f i c a n t f o r c e i n the g l o b a l o i l scene. The r e c e n t g l o b a l o i l g l u t , though p a r t l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h slow economic a c t i v i t i e s i n i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s , i s t o a s i g n i f i c a n t degree caused by u n c o n t r o l l e d o i l p r o d u c t i o n and the r e d u c t i o n of o i l p r i c e s by non-OPEC p r o d u c e r s , i n c l u d i n g b oth d e v e l o p e d and nondeveloped n a t i o n s . Today, non-OPEC o i l p r o d u c i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , l i k e many OPEC members, f a c e the t w i n burdens of p l u n g i n g revenue from o i l s a l e s and heavy debt burdens. A l s o s i m i l a r t o OPEC, some of tho s e d e b t o r non-OPEC o i l p r o d u c i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s ' a r e almost e n t i r e l y dependent on o i l f o r f o r e i g n exchange e a r n i n g s . For example, M e x i c o , the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s second l a r g e s t d e b t o r (next t o B r a z i l ) w i t h about $96 b i l l i o n i n l o a n s o u t s t a n d i n g , g e t s about 70 p e r c e n t of i t s "foreign exchange revenue from o i l s a l e s . For most non-OPEC o i l p r o d u c i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , the p r e s s u r e f o r o i l e x p o r t s , even a t t h e s a c r i f i c e of domestic demands, i s r e l e n t l e s s . Net O i l Importing Developing C o u n t r i e s (NOIDC) O i l i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s c o m p r i s e the l a r g e m a j o r i t y of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , a c c o u n t i n g f o r over f i f t y p e r c e n t of the p o p u l a t i o n , and about f o r t y p e r c e n t of the w o r l d ' s p o p u l a t i o n . E x c l u d i n g C h i n a , t h e i r combined energy consumption i n 1978 was ten m i l l i o n b a r r e l s per day of o i l e q u i v a l e n t , or t e n p e r c e n t of w o r l d consumption (Eden e t a l . , 1981). For the m a j o r i t y of o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , 25 im p o r t e d o i l a c c o u n t s f o r a t l e a s t 75 p e r c e n t of t h e i r n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy consumption. The few e x c e p t i o n s a r e c o u n t r i e s such as I n d i a , C h i n a , Zimbabwe, Kor e a , P a k i s t a n and Zambia which a r e l e s s than 50 p e r c e n t dependent on o i l owing t o e x t e n s i v e use of c o a l , and whose mines were d e v e l o p e d b e f o r e the e r a of cheap o i l (World Bank, 1979a; D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , 1981a). In g e n e r a l , o i l a c c o u n t s f o r over 50 p e r c e n t of t o t a l energy consumed i n net o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , and over 75 p e r c e n t of the o i l consumed i s i m p o r t e d , as i l l u s t r a t e d i n T a b l e 2.5. These o i l i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e poor, populous and, g i v e n t h e i r r e l a t i v e economic weakness, h a r d e s t h i t by h i g h o i l p r i c e s . In a d d i t i o n , they a r e f a c e d w i t h d i f f i c u l t c h o i c e s such as whether t o borrow funds t o pay f o r the crude o i l they need t o m a i n t a i n economic growth. Moreover, t h e i r d i f f i c u l t i e s a r e worsened by the s i m u l t a n e o u s d e c l i n e i n the a b i l i t y of i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s t o purchase t h e i r raw m a t e r i a l s , which a r e g e n e r a l l y the p r i m a r y , i f not the s o l e s o u r c e of f o r e i g n exchange f o r most d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s ( S m i l and Knowland, 1981). I n i t i a l l y i t seemed t h a t o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s were, i n g e n e r a l , making smooth a d j u s t m e n t s t o i n c r e a s i n g energy p r i c e s . A l t h o u g h t h e i r average economic growth r a t e d e c l i n e d from 7 p e r c e n t p r i o r t o 1973 and t o 5 p e r c e n t from 1974 t o 1978, t h i s lower growth r a t e was a c h i e v e d o n l y w i t h h i g h l e v e l s of b o r r o w i n g and r e c y c l e d p e t r o d o l l a r s u r p l u s i n the form of f o r e i g n exchange e a r n i n g s by emigrant workers i n OPEC c o u n t r i e s . A f t e r 1978 i t became i n c r e a s i n g l y 26 TABLE 2.5 NOIDC ENERGY BALANCE, OF OIL 1960 - 1 9 8 0 , EQUIVALENT IN MILLION BD Year T o t a l Energy Consumption O i l N o n - O i l T o t a l 1 Net O i l Imports O i l As % Of T o t a l Energy Net Imports As % Of T o t a l O i l Consumed 1960 1.5 1.3 2.8 1.2 54 80 1970 3.3 ' 2.2 5.5 2.6 60 79 1973 4.2 2.6 6.8 3.5 62 62 1974 4.3 2.7 7.0 3.5 61 81 1975 4.3 2.9 7.2 3.5 60 81 1976 4.4 3.4 7.8 3.5 56 50 1977 4.5 3.9 8.4 3.5 54 78 1980 4.8 5.0 9.8 3.5 49 73 1985 2 5.4 7.1 12.5 3.5 43 65 Source: M. S i d d a y a o . 1979. The O i l - P o o r D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s And U.S. Energy P o l i c y : A P r e l i m i n a r y Assessment. The  P h i l i p p i n e Review Of Economics And B u s i n e s s . p. 83-103. V o l . 2, June. p. 91. 1 T r a d i t i o n a l and n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy. 2 E s t i m a t e 27 d i f f i c u l t t o s e c u r e f o r e i g n l o a n s , due t o economic r e c e s s i o n i n the d e v e l o p e d w o r l d , which c o n t r i b u t e d t o h i g h i n t e r e s t r a t e s . The c o n t r a c t s of emigrant workers were c a n c e l l e d i n response t o d e p r e s s e d OPEC o i l s a l e s , and the p o t e n t i a l f o r economic c r i s i s i n o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s became o b v i o u s . Siddayao (1979:91) e x p l o r e s the impacts of h i g h o i l p r i c e s on the economies of net o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , and e x p l a i n s t h a t , The impact of w o r l d o i l p r i c e i n c r e a s e s on an NOILDC's b a l a n c e of payments (BOP) may be grouped i n t o t h o s e t h a t a r e d i r e c t and tho s e t h a t a r e i n d i r e c t . The d i r e c t impact i s the f o r e i g n exchange l o s s e s from the h i g h e r o i l p r i c e s , i . e . , the e f f e c t on a c o u n t r y ' s c u r r e n t a c c o u n t . The i n d i r e c t BOP impact i s f e l t by a c o u n t r y s u f f e r i n g from h i g h e r c o s t s of e n e r g y - i n t e n s i v e p r o d u c e r goods. Sources such as Eden et a l . , ( 1981), D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , (1981b) the World Bank (1979a) and Siddayao (1979) i n d i c a t e t h a t the ag g r e g a t e f i n a n c i a l i n d e b t e d n e s s of net o i l i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s has d o u b l e d , and t h e i r c u r r e n t account d e f i c i t s have t r i p l e d . T h i s i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n Ta b l e 2.6. A l t h o u g h i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o de t e r m i n e how much of the i n c r e a s e i n the d e f i c i t s of net o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s caused by OPEC o i l p r i c e i n c r e a s e s , s o u r c e s such as the World Bank ( 1 9 7 9 a : l ) i n d i c a t e t h a t , E s t i m a t e s by OECD, C i t i B a n k and UNCIAD have put the d e t e r i o r a t i o n of the OIDC [ O i l I m p o r t i n g D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s ] t r a d e account due t o OPEC p r i c e i n c r e a s e s a t $20.3 b i l l i o n , $20 b i l l i o n and $40.8 b i l l i o n r e s p e c t i v e l y ... T h i s s o u r c e c o n c l u d e s t h a t 40 t o 60 p e r c e n t of the r i s e i n the ag g r e g a t e i n d e b t e d n e s s of OIDC members between 1973 and 1978 was due t o the OPEC p r i c e r i s e . Today the p l i g h t of the m a j o r i t y of net o i l i m p o r t i n g 28 TABLE 2.6 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS, NET OIL IMPORTING DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 1973 - 1978 $BILLION Year 94 NOIDC A l l NOIDC 1973 -10.8 -9.4 1974 -30.0 -39.0 1975 -38.0 -49.0 1976 -28.0 -41.0 1977 -29.0 -21 .2 1978 -31 .3 Source: M. Sid d a y a o . 1979. The O i l - P o o r D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s And U.S. Energy P o l i c y : A P r e l i m i n a r y Assessment. The P h i l i p p i n e Review Of Economics  And B u s i n e s s . p. 83-103. V o l . V X I , No. 2, June. p. 93. 29 c o u n t r i e s i s one of m u l t i p l e d e f a u l t s , emergency debt r e s c h e d u l i n g , t i g h t c r e d i t l i n e s , d e f i c i t s , r e s t r i c t e d l a t i t u d e f o r d e a l i n g w i t h domestic economic p o l i c y , and slow economic growth. There i s a c h a i n r e a c t i o n of a c c e l e r a t e d i n f l a t i o n accompanied by domestic s h o r t a g e s of consumer goods. The c u r r e n t f a l l i n o i l p r i c e s n a t u r a l l y b e n e f i t s the net o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , by f r e e i n g f o r e i g n exchange f o r spending on o t h e r a r e a s such as debt payments, c a p i t a l improvements and economic growth programs. At the same t i m e , cheap o i l h e l p s t o promote the p o t e n t i a l f o r dependence by thes e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s on f i n i t e p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s and su p p r e s s i n t e r e s t s i n the s e a r c h f o r a l t e r n a t e new energy o p t i o n s . Even i f economic d i f f i c u l t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h h i g h p r i c e s of o i l were t o l e s s e n , the problem of the p o t e n t i a l f o r huge dependence on p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s by d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s compounded by t h r e e o t h e r f a c t o r s . F i r s t , t h e r e a r e l i m i t e d g l o b a l o i l r e s o u r c e s , and many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s do not have domestic s t o c k s of petroleum-based energy r e s o u r c e s . Second, t h e r e a r e numerous c o n s t r a i n t s t o p r o v i d e a l t e r n a t e energy s u p p l i e s from o t h e r n o n t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of energy i n c l u d i n g n a t u r a l gas, n u c l e a r , hydro, heavy o i l , t a r sands and o i l s h a l e r e s o u r c e s . T h i r d , many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s - p a r t i c u l a r l y t h o s e i n the net o i l i m p o r t i n g c a t e g o r i e s - a r e e x p e r i e n c i n g s e r i o u s s h o r t a g e s of t r a d i t i o n a l f o r e s t energy r e s o u r c e s . As a r e s u l t of t h e s e f a c t o r s t h e r e a r e numerous a t t e m p t s t o p r o v i d e a l t e r n a t e new energy s u p p l i e s from domestic renewable s o u r c e s such as s o l a r and b i o g a s . 30 2.1.2 Sources Of N o n t r a d i t i o n a l Energy And S u p p l y C o n s t r a i n t s I n D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s That t h e r e a r e l i m i t s t o r e s o u r c e s i s o b v i o u s ; where the s e l i m i t s a r e i s the q u e s t i o n t h a t remains unanswered ( F o l e y , 1981:54). The e x t e n t of g l o b a l energy r e s o u r c e s has been the t o p i c of ongoing debate, p a r t i c u l a r l y t h a t of f o s s i l f u e l s . Mancke (1974) a s s e r t s t h a t the e a r t h ' s r e m a i n i n g s u p p l i e s of known p e t r o l e u m a r e enormous and s t i l l g r o w i n g , but IIASA (1981) c a u t i o n s t h a t t a k i n g advantage of t h i s abundance can be n e i t h e r q u i c k or cheap. In o t h e r words, a l t h o u g h s u p p l i e s may be abundant, they a r e not n e c e s s a r i l y a c c e s s i b l e . The WAES Report (1977) c o n c l u d e s t h a t t h e r e may be a s h o r t a g e as e a r l y as the decade b e g i n n i n g i n 1985 of e a s i l y a c c e s s i b l e f o s s i l f u e l s which can be e c o n o m i c a l l y r e c o v e r e d . Rahmer (1983:329), i n an a r t i c l e s u b t i t l e d "Warning On Crude O i l R e s e r v e s " r e p o r t s t h a t , The assessment of World Crude O i l R e serves and Resources p r e p a r e d by t h r e e American e x p e r t s - M e s s r s . M a s t e r s , Root and Dietzman - f o r t h i s y e a r ' s e l e v e n t h w o r l d p e t r o l e u m c o n g r e s s l e a v e s l i t t l e room f o r complacency. The a u t h o r s s p e c i f i c a l l y warn t h a t i t would not be prudent t o a n t i c i p a t e r i c h e s from a r e a s which have not y e t been p r o p e r l y t e s t e d , and t h a t the need f o r a l t e r n a t i v e energy r e s o u r c e s c o u l d become i n c r e a s i n g l y c r i t i c a l f o r most c o u n t r i e s . "There i s an immense q u a n t i t y of c o n v e n t i o n a l crude o i l i n the w o r l d , " they s t a t e , "but our c a p a c i t y f o r consumption, however, i s p e r f e c t l y c a p a b l e of c h a l l e n g i n g t h i s immensity." The q u e s t i o n of a c c e s s i b i l i t y r e v o l v e s around s o c i a l , economic, t e c h n i c a l , and e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . The degree of t h e s e c o n s t r a i n t s v a r i e s from r e g i o n t o r e g i o n . W h i l e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s seem w i l l i n g t o t r a d e the " p o l l u t i o n of p o v e r t y " f o r the " p o l l u t i o n of a f f l u e n c e " , they f i n d t h emselves t i g h t l y bound by t e c h n i c a l and economic c o n s t r a i n t s . 31 2 . 1 . 2 . 1 P e t r o l e u m O i l E s t i m a t e s of u l t i m a t e l y r e c o v e r a b l e w o r l d o i l r e s o u r c e s a r e u n c e r t a i n b u t , as F o l e y (1981:131) p o i n t s o u t , "A prudent c o u r s e a t the moment i s t o assume t h a t the g e n e r a l l y a c c e p t e d f i g u r e of 2,000 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s i s the more l i k e l y t o be r i g h t . " T h i s e s t i m a t e was a r r i v e d a t by a v a r i e t y of r e s e a r c h e r s , u s i n g d i f f e r e n t a pproaches. T h i s i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n T a b l e 2.7. Of the t o t a l 2000 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s (274 b i l l i o n t o n n e s ) , 401.46 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s (55 b i l l i o n tonnes) have a l r e a d y been consumed. Proven r e s e r v e s r e p r e s e n t 642.34 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s (88 b i l l i o n t o n n e s ) , w h i l e 956.20 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s (131 b i l l i o n tonnes) i s the amount e s t i m a t e d t o y e t be d i s c o v e r e d ( F o l e y , 1 9 8 1 ) . S i m i l a r e s t i m a t e s of 640 and 645.85 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s of w o r l d proven p e t r o l e u m o i l r e s e r v e s have been made by the World Bank (1980a) and Energy, M i n e s , Resources Canada (1979) r e s p e c t i v e l y . P e t r o l e u m o i l s u p p l i e s a r e c o n c e n t r a t e d i n c o u n t r i e s which a r e members of OPEC. These c o u n t r i e s h o l d more than 40 p e r c e n t of e s t i m a t e d r e c o v e r a b l e o i l r e s e r v e s , 70 p e r c e n t of c u r r e n t proven w o r l d r e s e r v e s , and 80 p e r c e n t of o i l r e s e r v e s i n the noncommunist w o r l d (Eden et a l . , 1981). Proven r e s e r v e s i n non-OPEC net o i l e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d a r e s m a l l , a c c o u n t i n g f o r o n l y about 7 p e r c e n t of w o r l d proven r e s e r v e s . Net o i l i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d a r e the s i t e of about one p e r c e n t of w o r l d proven r e s e r v e s , or n i n e b i l l i o n b a r r e l s (World Bank, 1980a). However, s o u r c e s i n d i c a t e t h a t a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of new a d d i t i o n s t o g l o b a l o i l r e s e r v e s w i l l come from net o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . D u n k e r l e y e t a l . ( 1 9 8 1 b : 2 1 ) , f o r example, i n v e s t i g a t e p r o s p e c t s 32 TABLE 2.7 ESTIMATES OF ULTIMATE WORLD RESOURCES OF CONVENTIONAL OIL Year Source In 10 9 B a r r e l s 1942 P r a t t , Weeks and S t e b i n g e r 600 1946 Duce 400 1946 Pogue 555 1948 Weeks 610 1949 Le v o r s e n 1500 1949 Weeks 1010 1953 MacNaughton 1000 1956 Hubbert 1250 1958 Weeks 1500 1959 Weeks 2000 1965 H e n d r i c k s (USGS) 2480 1967 Tyman (ESSO) 2090 1968 S h e l l 1800 1968 Weeks 2200 1969 Hubbert 1350-2100 1970 Moody ( M o b i l ) 1800 1971 Warman (BP) 1200-2000 1972 Weeks 2290 1975 Moody and G e i g e r 2000 1977 D e s p r a i r i e s (WEC)-Delphi 1280-2560 1978 Nehr i n g 2025 S o u r c e s : R. Eden e t a l . 1981. Energy Economics, Growth, Resources And P o l i c i e s , Cambridge: Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s . G. F o l e y . 1981. The Energy Q u e s t i o n , 2nd E d i t i o n . New York: Penguin Books. p. 130. 33 f o r d i s c o v e r y and development of a d d i t i o n a l o i l and gas r e s o u r c e s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s and f i n d t h a t , A p p r o x i m a t e l y 600 sedi m e n t a r y b a s i n s have been i d e n t i f i e d t hroughout the w o r l d w i t h p o t e n t i a l f o r o i l or gas d i s c o v e r i e s . About 400 of t h e s e have had some d r i l l i n g t o d a t e . The 200 b a s i n s which have not been e x p l o r e d a r e m o s t l y l o c a t e d i n a r e a s where development of o i l and gas r e s o u r c e s would be h i g h - c o s t , such as the A r t i e and deep o f f shore a r e a s , and c o n t i n e n t a l i n t e r i o r s such as the mid-upper Amazon and c e n t r a l A f r i c a . Many of the b a s i n s which remain t o be e x p l o r e d a r e i n LDGs [ l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s ] . A study conducted f o r the World Bank of o i l and gas p r o s p e c t s i n s e v e n t y LDCs c o n c l u d e d t h a t of the ten n o n o i l p r o d u c e r s w i t h known r e s e r v e s , s i x had "v e r y h i g h " or " h i g h " p o t e n t i a l r e s e r v e s (over 750 m i l l i o n b a r r e l s ) and f o u r had " f a i r " or "low" p o t e n t i a l r e s e r v e s ( l e s s than 750 m i l l i o n b a r r e l s ) . Of the f o r t y - f i v e n o n o i l p r o d u c e r s w i t h o u t d i s c o v e r i e s t o d a t e , f i v e had "v e r y h i g h " or " h i g h " p o t e n t i a l r e s e r v e s , and f o r t y had " f a i r " or "low" p o t e n t i a l r e s e r v e s . F u r t h e r , t h i s a u t h o r i n d i c a t e s t h a t s u b s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e s i n o i l p r o d u c t i o n i n a number of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e p o s s i b l e , and e x p e c t s t h a t such w i l l s i g n i f i c a n t l y m i n i m i z e the burden of o i l i m p o r t s f o r these c o u n t r i e s . However, the r e a l i z a t i o n of t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y w i l l be s u b j e c t e d t o the a v a i l a b i l i t y of c a p i t a l and s k i l l e d p e r s o n n e l f o r v i g o r o u s o i l e x p l o r a t i o n and development programs, and i n v o l v e s h i g h i n v e s t m e n t r i s k s . A c c o r d i n g t o the World Bank (1979a:37), The r i s k s of p e t r o l e u m e x p l o r a t i o n a r e h i g h . Only one i n e i g h t t o one i n t h i r t e e n e x p l o r a t o r y w e l l s a r e s u c c e s s f u l i n d i s c o v e r i n g a f i e l d , depending on the a r e a ... an a r e a can go th r o u g h two or t h r e e phases of e x p l o r a t o r y a c t i v i t y over a p e r i o d of 20 y e a r s w i t h o u t any commercial a c c u m u l a t i o n of o i l or gas b e i n g found. U n p r e d i c t a b l e i d e o l o g i c a l s h i f t s , d e l a y s , demands f o r k i c k b a c k s , and a g e n e r a l l a c k of i n f r a s t r u c t u r e and su p p o r t s e r v i c e s c h a r a c t e r i z e the b u s i n e s s environment of a l a r g e number of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . D e s p i t e s u b s t a n t i a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s which e x i s t i n these c o u n t r i e s , the u n f a v o u r a b l e investment 34 c l i m a t e d i s c o u r a g e s f u r t h e r e x p l o r a t i o n . The World Bank (1979a:15) c l a i m s t h a t , E x p l o r a t o r y a c t i v i t y f o r o i l and gas has been d e c l i n i n g i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i n r e c e n t y e a r s , d e s p i t e the economic a t t r a c t i o n of d e v e l o p i n g new p r o d u c t i o n a t p r e s e n t p r i c e s . In p a r t t h i s i s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o p o l i t i c a l and economic c o n d i t i o n s u n a t t r a c t i v e t o p r i v a t e c a p i t a l , which f o r m e r l y undertook the b u l k of e x p l o r a t o r y a c t i v i t y , and which have caused a d e c l i n e i n p r i v a t e investment i n e x p l o r a t i o n . T h i s d e c l i n e i n p r i v a t e investment i n p e t r o l e u m e x p l o r a t i o n has been l e f t uncompensated by p u b l i c i n v e s t m e n t , so t h a t i n many c a s e s o i l p r o d u c t i o n may s t a r t t o d e c l i n e w i t h i n the next few y e a r s . Moreover, most d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s l a c k the r e f i n e r i e s n e c e s s a r y t o break down crude o i l i n t o u s a b l e p r o d u c t s such as kerosene and p e t r o l . F u r t h e r m o r e , i n e f f i c i e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n systems and i n f r a s t r u c t u r e r e s t r i c t s u p p l i e s t o a v e r y few c e n t r e s (Moss and Morgan, 1981). G i v e n the above c i r c u m s t a n c e s , the n a t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n and s u p p l y d e c l i n e , combined w i t h r a p i d i n c r e a s e s i n demands f o r p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s , may l e a d t o s u p p l y s h o r t a g e s and e v e n t u a l l y t o a r e s u r g e n c e of h i g h o i l p r i c e s i n the w o r l d o i l market. For example, IIASA (1981:31) n o t e s t h a t , ... even w i t h v i g o r o u s c o n s e r v a t i o n measures i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d r e g i o n s , i n c r e a s i n g needs f o r ' l i q u i d f u e l s t h r o u g h out the w o r l d may, over the next f i v e decades exceed the c a p a b i l i t i e s of the g l o b a l energy s u p p l y . On the s u b j e c t of the p r e s e n t o i l g l u t , Morgan (1983:71) remarks t h a t , ... on p r e s e n t e v i d e n c e the o i l g l u t may not l a s t l o n g and a g e n e r a l s i t u a t i o n of s u p p l y b e i n g s h o r t of demand seems l i k e l y over the next 30 - 40 y e a r s . 2.1*2.2 Heavy O i l And Tar Sands Heavy o i l i s a low q u a l i t y o i l , i n the range of 10° t o 20° A P I . I t s v i s c o s i t y i s h i g h . 35 Tar sands a r e an extreme type of heavy o i l . I n g e n e r a l , t a r sands r e f e r t o sands or sand s t o n e s impregnated w i t h heavy immobile or h i g h l y v i s c o u s o i l which i s exposed a t the s u r f a c e of the e a r t h or c o v e r e d by o v e r b u r d e n . Tar sands have l e s s than 10° API, w i t h s p e c i f i c g r a v i t y h e a v i e r than w a t e r . G l o b a l d e p o s i t s of heavy o i l and t a r sands a r e c u r r e n t l y e s t i m a t e d a t t h r e e t r i l l i o n b a r r e l s of o i l (World Bank, 1980a; F o l e y , 1981). They o c c u r i n a number of c o u n t r i e s , w i t h the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d a c c o u n t i n g f o r 72 p e r c e n t of known d e p o s i t s . Of t o t a l d e p o s i t s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , 99.2 p e r c e n t a r e l o c a t e d i n OPEC c o u n t r i e s , w h i l e non-OPEC net e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s account f o r j u s t 0.5 p e r c e n t , and net o i l i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e the s i t e of 0.3 p e r c e n t . However, d e p o s i t s of heavy o i l and t a r sands i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d have not been f u l l y e v a l u a t e d . Only f i v e t o t e n p e r c e n t of t o t a l r e s o u r c e s of heavy o i l and t a r sands i s e a s i l y a c c e s s i b l e from the s u r f a c e and, hence, r e c o v e r a b l e u s i n g methods which a r e c u r r e n t l y a v a i l a b l e ( F o l e y , 1981). T o t a l r e c o v e r a b l e r e s e r v e s a r e t h e r e f o r e e s t i m a t e d a t 450 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s of crude o i l , about the same q u a n t i t y as known c o n v e n t i o n a l o i l r e s e r v e s i n the M i d d l e E a s t ( F o l e y , 1981; World Bank, 1980a). However, commercial e x p l o i t a t i o n of heavy o i l and t a r sands r e s e r v e s i s c u r r e n t l y r e s t r i c t e d because the o i l i s d i f f i c u l t t o e x t r a c t . About two tonnes of m a t e r i a l must be mined t o produce a b a r r e l of o i l ( F o l e y , 1981). Investment c o s t s and t e c h n i c a l demands a r e h i g h . The World Bank (1980a) e s t i m a t e s t h a t o i l from t h e s e n o n - c o n v e n t i o n a l s o u r c e s w i l l make 36 o n l y a s m a l l c o n t r i b u t i o n of 200,000 b a r r e l s per day of s u p p l y t o the o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i n the l a t t e r p a r t of the 1980s. 2.3 O i l Shale O i l s h a l e i s found i n many p a r t of the w o r l d , and r e f e r s t o f i n e g r a i n e d (or t e x t u r e d ) s e d i m e n t a r y r o c k s c o n t a i n i n g the s o l i d o r g a n i c m a t e r i a l c a l l e d kerogen, which on h e a t i n g t o 300°C t o 400°C d i s i n t e g r a t e s i n t o o i l or gas t h a t can be e x t r a c t e d . O i l s h a l e r e s o u r c e s a r e c l a s s i f i e d i n terms of the amount of o i l t h a t can be o b t a i n e d by h e a t i n g one ton of s h a l e . Those t h a t y i e l d 25 t o 100 U.S. g a l l o n s of o i l per ton of s h a l e a r e c o n s i d e r e d the r i c h e s t s h a l e s , f o l l o w e d by those t h a t y i e l d 10 t o 25 g a l l o n s per t o n , w i t h those y i e l d i n g j u s t 5 t o 10 g a l l o n s per t o n b e i n g the p o o r e s t q u a l i t y s h a l e s . E s t i m a t e s of t o t a l r e c o v e r a b l e o i l s h a l e r e s o u r c e s which y i e l d t e n or more U.S. g a l l o n s per t o n of s h a l e a r e 3264 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s of o i l . T h i s , a c c o r d i n g t o the World Bank (1980a) r e p r e s e n t s the be s t e s t i m a t e which can be made from a v a i l a b l e l i t e r a t u r e . The l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of t h i s r e s o u r c e i s i n the noncommunist i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d , which a c c o u n t s f o r 68 p e r c e n t of known r e s o u r c e s . The d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d a c c o u n t s f o r o n l y about 29 p e r c e n t of known w o r l d d e p o s i t s of o i l s h a l e , and 89 p e r c e n t of t h i s p o r t i o n i s found i n net o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . C u r r e n t l y , no such d e p o s i t s have been i d e n t i f i e d i n OPEC c o u n t r i e s of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . The r e m a i n i n g e l e v e n p e r c e n t a r e l o c a t e d i n non-OPEC net e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s . 37 W h i l e the magnitude of known r e c o v e r a b l e o i l s h a l e r e s o u r c e s measured i n terms of c o n v e n t i o n a l o i l r e s o u r c e s i s immense, the amount which i s e c o n o m i c a l l y e x p l o i t a b l e i s v e r y s m a l l and i s found p r i m a r i l y i n c o u n t r i e s of the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d . As F o l e y (1981:151) n o t e s , I t i s now f e l t t h a t o n l y those o i l s h a l e s w i t h an o i l c o n t e n t above 25 g a l l o n s per tonne w i l l ever be economic. T h i s reduces the s i z e of the p o t e n t i a l r e s e r v e s by a f a c t o r of a thousand. At the 1978 World Energy Conference i t was e s t i m a t e d t h a t the r e c o v e r a b l e o i l from t h e s e r e s o u r c e s was about 1500 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s - about 90 p e r c e n t of i t i n the U.S. The t o t a l i s t h u s somewhat l e s s than c o n v e n t i o n a l crude o i l . And of t h a t o n l y 5-10 p e r c e n t can "be c o n s i d e r e d f o r immediate e x p l o i t a t i o n " . On t h i s b a s i s , c u r r e n t w o r l d r e c o v e r a b l e o i l s h a l e r e s e r v e s t o t a l between 75 t o 150 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s of o i l . But o i l e x t r a c t i o n from s h a l e on a commercial b a s i s does not c u r r e n t l y e x i s t . M i n i n g and p r o c e s s i n g expenses r e p r e s e n t a l a r g e p a r t of the t o t a l c o s t of p r o d u c i n g p e t r o l e u m from s h a l e , and c u r r e n t l y c o n s t i t u t e the major c o n s t r a i n t t o p r o d u c t i o n . As noted by Eden et a l . (1*981 :89) , The p r i n c i p a l o b s t a c l e s t o c o n v e n t i o n a l s u r f a c e r e t o r t i n g of s h a l e a r e i t s h i g h c o s t , the energy consumed, the consumption of water ( i n r e g i o n s w i t h water s c a r c i t y , . . . ) , and the d i s p o s a l of waste p r o d u c t s . I n - s i t u combustion would reduce the problems of water and waste d i s p o s a l , but t h i s has not y e t been d e v e l o p e d s u f f i c i e n t l y f o r commercial o p e r a t i o n . W i t h p a r t i c u l a r r e f e r e n c e t o d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , the World Bank (1980a) p o i n t s out t h a t the h i g h t e c h n o l o g y , c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e t e c h n i q u e s b e i n g used i n the U.S. may not be a p p r o p r i a t e as models. G i v e n the magnitude of o b s t a c l e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h o i l s h a l e p r o d u c t i o n , i t i s not s u r p r i s i n g t h a t F o l e y (1981) c o n c l u d e s t h a t s h a l e o i l does not l o o k a t a l l p r o m i s i n g as an energy 38 r e s o u r c e . Hubbert ( 1 9 6 9 ) i s even more p e s s i m i s t i c , c o n t e n d i n g t h a t the o r g a n i c c o n t e n t s of carbonaceous s h a l e appear t o be more p r o m i s i n g as a r e s o u r c e of raw m a t e r i a l f o r the c h e m i c a l i n d u s t r y than as a major source of i n d u s t r i a l energy. C u r r e n t l y , the o n l y p i l o t p l a n t f o r o i l e x t r a c t i o n from s h a l e i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i s i n B r a z i l . 2.1.2.4 N a t u r a l Gas E s t i m a t e s of p o t e n t i a l n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s and r e s e r v e s have changed, and have been b u i l d i n g up w i t h t i m e . As F o l e y (1981:141) remarks, The e s t i m a t i o n of the w o r l d ' s u l t i m a t e l y r e c o v e r a b l e r e s e r v e s of n a t u r a l gas i s s u b j e c t t o even g r e a t e r u n c e r t a i n t i e s than t h a t of o i l . W h i l e numerous e s t i m a t e s have been made over the pa s t twenty y e a r s no c l e a r convergence on a s i n g l e f i g u r e , as i n the case of o i l , i s a p p a r e n t . The World Bank (1980a:27) c a u t i o n s t h a t , U n t i l r e c e n t l y gas d i s c o v e r i e s o u t s i d e the U.S., Western Europe and the USSR have not been f u l l y e v a l u a t e d , and the r e s e r v e e s t i m a t e s s h o u l d be t r e a t e d w i t h c a u t i o n . Over the p a s t 10 y e a r s a d d i t i o n s t o gas r e s e r v e s have been e q u i v a l e n t t o a d d i t i o n s t o o i l r e s e r v e s (about 290 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s ) and on average t w i c e the l e v e l of gas consumption. A v a i l a b l e s o u r c e s i n d i c a t e t h a t n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s a r e s u b s t a n t i a l , and t h a t the r e s e r v e s a r e growing. Hubbert (1969) s u g g e s t s a f i g u r e of about 340,000 b i l l i o n c u b i c m e t r e s , which i s e q u i v a l e n t t o e s t i m a t e s of the w o r l d ' s u l t i m a t e l y r e c o v e r a b l e o i l r e s e r v e s of 2000 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s ( F o l e y , 1981). S i m i l a r e s t i m a t e s from a v a r i e t y of s o u r c e s i n d i c a t e an o p t i m i s m t h a t t h e r e c u r r e n t l y e x i s t l a r g e endowments of n a t u r a l gas i n the w o r l d , w i t h growing new d i s c o v e r i e s (McCormick e t a l . , 1978; World Energy C o n f e r e n c e , 1978b; World Bank, 1980a). As Hough 39 (1983a:293) p u t s i t , I t i s apparent t h a t w o r l d gas r e s e r v e s have been b u i l d i n g up i n r e c e n t y e a r s a t a r a t e t h a t o u t s t r i p s c ommercial p r o d u c t i o n , and t h i s may remain t r u e f o r the f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e . Simple r e s e r v e s t o p r o d u c t i o n r a t i o s f o r gas ... and r e l a t i v e l y s t a t i c or d w i n d l i n g o i l r e s e r v e s i n d i c a t e t h a t , w i t h the e x c e p t i o n of a number of i m p o r t a n t i n d i v i d u a l c o u n t r i e s , the w o r l d ' s n a t u r a l gas ought t o l a s t t w i c e as l o n g as i t s o i l . About 45 p e r c e n t of c u r r e n t l y proven w o r l d r e s e r v e s of n a t u r a l gas a r e found i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . Of t h e s e about 76 p e r c e n t a r e c o n c e n t r a t e d i n OPEC c o u n t r i e s , 15 p e r c e n t i n non-OPEC net o i l e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , and 9 p e r c e n t i n net o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . S i n c e most proven gas r e s e r v e s e x i s t i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h crude o i l r e s e r v e s , i t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t the l a r g e s t p o r t i o n of gas r e s e r v e s w i l l come from net o i l e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . N e v e r t h e l e s s , the m a j o r i t y of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , as w e l l as d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s which a r e not endowed w i t h e c o n o m i c a l l y e x p l o i t a b l e n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s , f a c e s e r i o u s doubts t h a t they w i l l be a b l e t o reduce t h e i r d o m e s t i c energy problems t h r o u g h gas i m p o r t s . The foremost reason f o r t h e i r c o n c e r n i s t h a t i n c o n t r a s t t o o i l , most of the w o r l d ' s n a t u r a l gas which i s b e i n g u t i l i z e d i s consumed by the c o u n t r i e s i n which i t i s produced. F u r t h e r m o r e , as F o l e y (1981:143) p o i n t s out i n h i s d i s c u s s i o n of n a t u r a l gas, I t i s d i f f i c u l t t o t r a n s p o r t and d i s t r i b u t e . F o r l a r g e - s c a l e use i t r e q u i r e s a network of underground p i p e s connected t o e v e r y consumer. To e s t a b l i s h such a system from s c r a t c h i s a l o n g and e x p e n s i v e u n d e r t a k i n g . I t can o n l y be j u s t i f i e d i f a c o u n t r y has i t s gas s u p p l i e s under i t s own c o n t r o l or i s c o n f i d e n t of the g o o d w i l l and p o l i t i c a l s t a b i l i t y of p o t e n t i a l s u p p l i e r s and the c o u n t r i e s t h r o u g h which s u p p l y p i p e l i n e s must pa s s. These c o n s t r a i n t s t o the l a r g e s c a l e e x p o r t of n a t u r a l gas a r e 4 0 e x a c e r b a t e d by the f a c t t h a t the l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of the w o r l d ' s proven r e s e r v e s a r e l o c a t e d w i t h i n o n l y two c o u n t r i e s -the U.S.S.R. and I r a n - which t o g e t h e r account f o r about 52 p e r c e n t of t o t a l proven w o r l d r e s e r v e s . These c o u n t r i e s a r e p o p u l o u s , w i t h growing domestic demand which i s l i k e l y t o l i m i t e x p o r t s . Moreover, th e s e c o u n t r i e s a r e l i k e l y t o l i m i t p r o d u c t i o n t o l e v e l s which w i l l earn them income which i s o n l y enough t o s e r v e t h e i r own development needs, and keep e x p o r t s u r p l u s e s t o a minimum. There a r e o t h e r f a c t o r s which l i m i t p r o s p e c t s f o r l a r g e i n t e r n a t i o n a l gas s u p p l i e s . For i n s t a n c e i n R u s s i a , which a c c o u n t s f o r over 39 p e r c e n t of the w o r l d ' s proven r e s e r v e s , most of the d e p o s i t s a r e i n a r e a s of Western S i b e r i a which a r e h a r d l y a c c e s s i b l e . P r o d u c t i o n i n t h e s e l o c a t i o n s i s c o s t l y and time consuming, as i s t r a n s p o r t t o e x p o r t m arkets. T h i s c o s t i s u l t i m a t e l y passed on t o the consumers, and w i l l n a t u r a l l y r e q u i r e h i g h e x p o r t p r i c e s and s t a b l e markets, or a s s u r e d r a t e s of r e t u r n , i f development i s t o be j u s t i f i e d . The World Bank (1980a:26) i d e n t i f i e s some of the c o n s t r a i n t s t o gas development i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , p o i n t i n g out t h a t , Gas development f o r do m e s t i c use i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s has a l s o been l i m i t e d because markets have r a r e l y been s u f f i c i e n t l y l a r g e and c o n c e n t r a t e d t o absorb the h i g h c o s t of p i p e l i n e s and d i s t r i b u t i o n f a c i l i t i e s and hence make gas c o m p e t i t i v e w i t h o i l p r o d u c t s ( m a i n l y f u e l o i l ) . T h e r e f o r e , where no ready l o c a l market e x i s t e d , a s s o c i a t e d gas has u s u a l l y been f l a r e d and n o n a s s o c i a t e d gas d i s c o v e r i e s have not been d e v e l o p e d . Eden et a l . (1981:94-95) p r o v i d e a comprehensive summary and e v a l u a t i o n of the p o l i c y o p t i o n s open t o c o u n t r i e s which produce n a t u r a l gas but which do not have l a r g e domestic demand. A c c o r d i n g t o t h e s e a u t h o r s , 41 E x p o r t by p i p e l i n e may be f e a s i b l e , as w i t h I r a n t o the USSR and hence t o E a s t e r n or Western Europe, or Mexico t o the US. LNG t r a d e c o u l d be d e v e l o p e d , though payments t o p r o d u c e r s a r e s e v e r e l y reduced from the d e l i v e r e d p r i c e of gas by the h i g h t r a n s p o r t c o s t s . A l o c a l consumer network c o u l d be b u i l t up, though i n a d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y w i t h l a r g e r e s e r v e s i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t t h i s c o u l d take a major share of the p o t e n t i a l s u p p l y . The gas c o u l d be used t o d e v e l o p a l o c a l c h e m i c a l s and p e t r o c h e m i c a l s i n d u s t r y , f o r e x p o r t of f e r t i l i z e r s and " i n t e r m e d i a t e s " f o r f u r t h e r use i n p e t r o c h e m i c a l s . T h i s would depend on whether the c o s t advantage on f e e d s t o c k s would be s u f f i c i e n t f o r a newly d e v e l o p e d i n d u s t r y t o compete w i t h the h i g h l y e f f i c i e n t p e t r o c h e m i c a l s companies i n de v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . The c o s t d i s a d v a n t a g e s i n t r a n s p o r t i n g gas means t h a t n a t u r a l gas i n a p r o d u c i n g c o u n t r y p r o v i d e s the cheapest f u e l f o r e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n . I f a gas f i e l d i s remote from p o s s i b l e consumers i t may be d e s i r a b l e t o use the gas t o g e n e r a t e e l e c t r i c i t y where the gas i s co-produced w i t h o i l and would o t h e r w i s e be f l a r e d . A major p o s s i b i l i t y i n the medium- t o l o n g - t e r m f u t u r e i s the c o n v e r s i o n t o methanol f o r s h i p p i n g t o consumer c o u n t r i e s f o r use i n t r a n s p o r t , ... Wi t h the e x c e p t i o n of the o p t i o n t o use n a t u r a l gas f o r the g e n e r a t i o n of e l e c t r i c i t y , t h e s e s u g g e s t i o n s r e q u i r e l o n g g e s t a t i o n p e r i o d s or l e a d t i m e s . For example, t h e r e i s a l e n g t h y time r e q u i r e d f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n of p i p e l i n e s t o domesti c consumers or a c r o s s f r o n t i e r s . In a d d i t i o n , i t i s u n c e r t a i n t h a t a l l of the s e o p t i o n s c o u l d be o p e r a t i o n a l , due t o c i r c u m s t a n c e s beyond the c o n t r o l of the gas p r o d u c i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . For example, an LNG e x p o r t p r o j e c t would i n v o l v e f i n a n c e , c u s t omers, and p o l i t i c a l f a c t o r s which might t a k e p r i o r i t y over economic prudence. I t i s t h e r e f o r e not s u r p r i s i n g t h a t the World Bank (1980a) r e p o r t s t h a t i n those d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s t h a t a r e e x p l o i t i n g t h e i r n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s , gas i s m a i n l y used f o r power g e n e r a t i o n and i n d u s t r y which can ab s o r b a l a r g e enough volume of gas t o j u s t i f y the c o n s t r u c t i o n of a p i p e l i n e . Governments of c o u n t r i e s which produce n a t u r a l gas i n the 42 d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d a r e becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y c o n s c i o u s of the enormous waste of t h e i r a s s o c i a t e d gas. T h i s , c o u p l e d w i t h an i n c r e a s i n g awareness of the revenue which c o u l d be earned t h r o u g h p r o d u c t i o n of n a t u r a l gas, has caused s t e p s t o be taken towards c u r b i n g such i r r e v e r s i b l e l o s s e s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , as l o n g as the demand from i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s i s low, i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n v e s t o r s w i l l be r e l u c t a n t t o d e v e l o p n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . 2.1.2.5 C o a l C o a l i s c l a s s i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o i t s p r o p e r t i e s w h i c h , i n t u r n , a r e d e t e r m i n e d by the c o n d i t i o n s under which the p r o c e s s of c o a l i f i c a t i o n o c c u r r e d beneath the e a r t h . Under r e l a t i v e l y m i l d c o n d i t i o n s of heat and p r e s s u r e , s u b - b i t u m i n o u s , brown and l i g n i t e c o a l s a r e formed. These a r e r e g a r d e d as the l o w e s t ranked c o a l s (Eden e t a l . , 1981). These t y p e s of c o a l c o n t a i n up t o 70 p e r c e n t m o i s t u r e , l e s s than 69 p e r c e n t c a r b o n ; they d i s i n t e g r a t e r a p i d l y i n a i r , a r e l i a b l e t o i g n i t e s p o n t a n e o u s l y when exposed d u r i n g m i n i n g , and a r e of low c a l o r i f i c v a l u e ( F o l e y , 1981). At h i g h e r t e m p e r a t u r e s and p r e s s u r e s a r e b i t u m i n o u s c o a l s , which c o n t a i n about 69-86 p e r c e n t carbon and 5 p e r c e n t hydrogen. The h i g h e s t ranked c o a l s a r e formed under v e r y h i g h t e m p e r a t u r e s , and a r e c a l l e d a n t h r a c i t e s . A n t h r a c i t e c o a l c o n t a i n s as much as 98 p e r c e n t c a r b o n , w i t h 2 or 3 p e r c e n t hydrogen, t o g e t h e r w i t h oxygen, v o l a t i l e m a tter and i m p u r i t i e s . The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s of c o a l a r e summarized i n T a b l e 2.8. Other i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s i n the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of c o a l i n c l u d e the 43 TABLE 2.8 CLASSIFICATION OF COAL BY RANK C l a s s Rank Group SOME PROPERTIES Carbon Content Thermal Heat ( i n %) Content ( i n G i g a -j o u l e s per tonne) A n t h r a c i t e H i g h e s t Q u a l i t y B i t u m i n o u s H i g h e s t Q u a l i t y Sub- Poor B i t u m i n o u s Q u a l i t y L i g n i t e Poor Q u a l i t y -Meta-A n t h r a c i t e -Anthrac i t e -Semi -An t h r a c i t e -Low V o l a t i l i t y -Medium V o l a t i l i t y -High V o l a t i l i t y -Grade A -Grade B -Grade C -Brown C o a l - L i g n i t e 98% or more 92 t o 98 86 t o 92 78 t o 86 69 t o 78 L e s s than 69 L e s s than 69 Les s than 50 30 t o 34 20 t o 30 9 t o 14 9 t o 14 Sou r c e : Eden et a l . , 1981. Energy Economics, Growth, Resources  And P o l i c i e s . Cambridge: Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , p. 102. Heat Content P r o p e r t i e s were d e r i v e d from the t e x t . 44 c o k i n g q u a l i t i e s of m e t a l l u r g i c a l c o a l , which r e l a t e s t o the m e c h a n i c a l s t r e n g t h of the coke, the ash c o n t e n t , and the s u l p h u r c o n t e n t , which r e l a t e s t o p o l l u t i o n problems. The q u a l i t i e s of c o a l v a r y and o v e r l a p , making i t d i f f i c u l t t o c l a s s i f y d i f f e r e n t t y p e s of c o a l a c c o r d i n g t o u n i f o r m c r i t e r i a . N e v e r t h e l e s s , on the b a s i s of s u r v e y s c a r r i e d out by the World Energy Conference (WEC, 1978a), c o a l r e s o u r c e s and r e s e r v e s can be d i v i d e d i n t o two main c a t e g o r i e s - h a r d c o a l and brown c o a l - on the b a s i s of heat c o n t e n t , depth l i m i t , and seam t h i c k n e s s . T h i s i s demonstrated i n T a b l e 2.9. P o t e n t i a l c o a l r e s o u r c e s a r e e s t i m a t e d a t 10125 b i l l i o n t o n n e s , or 50281 b i l l i o n boe (WEC, 1978b; World Bank, 1979a, 1980a; Eden e t a l . , 1981; F o l e y , 1981). T h i s e s t i m a t e i s about t w e n t y - f i v e t i m e s l a r g e r than e s t i m a t e d r e c o v e r a b l e c o n v e n t i o n a l w o r l d o i l r e s o u r c e s , and t w e n t y - e i g h t t i m e s more than t o t a l n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s i n the w o r l d . S e v e n t y - s i x p e r c e n t of w o r l d c o a l r e s o u r c e s a r e h a r d c o a l , and t w e n t y - f o u r p e r c e n t a r e brown c o a l . A l t h o u g h p o t e n t i a l c o a l r e s o u r c e s a r e v e r y l a r g e , t h e i r g e o l o g i c a l l o c a t i o n i s c o n c e n t r a t e d o u t s i d e the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . As a group, d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s p o s s e s s o n l y about 16 p e r c e n t of w o r l d r e s o u r c e s . D e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e the s i t e of 21 p e r c e n t of t o t a l w o r l d r e s e r v e s of h a r d c o a l , and about 1 p e r c e n t of brown c o a l (World Bank, 1979a; WEC, 1978b). Of t o t a l c o a l r e s o u r c e s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , 0.4 p e r c e n t a r e l o c a t e d i n OPEC c o u n t r i e s , 88 p e r c e n t i n non-OPEC net o i l e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s (0.4 p e r c e n t e x c l u d i n g r e s o u r c e s i n C h i n a ) , and 12 p e r c e n t i n net o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . S i m i l a r l y , the l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of h i g h q u a l i t y , h a r d c o a l TABLE 2.9 COAL CLASSIFICATION BY WORLD ENERGY CONFERENCE, 1978 CLASSIFICATION CRITERIA Energy Content Depth L i m i t Minimum Sean C l a s s Group ( i n GJ/per tonne) ( i n metres) T h i c k n e s s on ash f r e e b a s i s ( i n metres) Hard A n t h r i c i t e 23.8 or more 1,500 0.6 C o a l and Bi t u m i n o u s Brown Sub- Below 23.8 600 0.6 C o a l B i t u m i n o u s and L i g n i t e D e r i v e d from: Eden e t a l . , 1981. Energy Economics, Growth, R e s o u r c e s , And P o l i c i e s . Cambridge: Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , p. 103. 46 r e s o u r c e s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s i n non-OPEC net o i l e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , as i s the l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of brown c o a l r e s o u r c e s . World c o a l r e s e r v e s , which a r e e x p l o i t a b l e a t c u r r e n t p r i c e s w i t h a v a i l a b l e t e c h n o l o g i e s , a r e e s t i m a t e d a t 636 b i l l i o n t o n n e s , or 3158 b i l l i o n boe (World Bank, 1980a). T h i s amount i s f i v e t i m e s t h a t of c o n v e n t i o n a l o i l r e s e r v e s , and n e a r l y 6 p e r c e n t of p o t e n t i a l c o a l r e s o u r c e s . D e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s account f o r o n l y about 25 p e r c e n t of w o r l d r e s e r v e s , but a l t h o u g h d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s and c e n t r a l l y p l a n n e d economies p o s s e s s d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y h i g h q u a n t i t i e s of w o r l d c o a l r e s e r v e s which a r e c u r r e n t l y r e c o v e r a b l e , s o u r c e s i n d i c a t e t h a t a d d i t i o n a l r e s o u r c e s and r e s e r v e s a r e l i k e l y t o come from d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . D u n k e r l e y e t a l . (1981b:26) note t h a t , There has been r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e e x p l o r a t i o n f o r c o a l i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , so i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t c o n s i d e r a b l y more e x t e n s i v e c o a l r e s e r v e s w i l l be d i s c o v e r e d . P r i o r t o the o i l p r i c e r i s e of 1973, t h e r e was l i t t l e i n t e r e s t i n c o a l e x p l o r a t i o n among d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y governments, which c o n c e n t r a t e d on e x p l o r i n g f o r more v a l u a b l e r e s o u r c e s such as copper and i r o n o r e , or among i n t e r n a t i o n a l m i n i n g companies, due t o l a g g i n g demand and the e x i s t e n c e of abundant c o a l r e s o u r c e s i n the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . R e c e n t l y , d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s have r e c l a s s i f i e d much of t h e i r c o a l r e s o u r c e base, but r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e new c o a l e x p l o r a t i o n has begun. A major i s s u e of debate has been the p o s s i b i l i t y of s u b s t i t u t i n g c o a l f o r h i g h c o s t o i l , due t o d e c l i n i n g o i l r e s e r v e s ( G r i f f i t h e t a l . , 1979; D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , 1981b). A major c o n s t r a i n t i s the h i g h i n v e s t m e n t c o s t r e q u i r e m e n t s . D u n k e r l e y e t a l . (1981b), f o r example, note t h a t one reason f o r a slow development of c o a l r e s o u r c e s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i s h i g h i n f r a s t r u c t u r e c o s t s f o r m i n i n g and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n of 47 c o a l . I f c o a l i s t o s e r v e as an energy o p t i o n f o r the r e d u c t i o n of dependence on o i l i m p o r t s , governments of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s must soon embark on p o l i c i e s n e c e s s a r y f o r e x p a n s i o n of c o a l u t i l i z a t i o n . I n c e n t i v e s f o r p u b l i c and p r i v a t e i n vestment a r e r e q u i r e d t o p r o v i d e funds f o r e x p l o i t a t i o n , o p e n i n g , and development of mines, c o n s t r u c t i o n of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n systems, p r o v i s i o n of the r e q u i r e d i n f r a -s t r u c t u r e , and perhap s , s e e k i n g s o l u t i o n s t o e n v i r o n m e n t a l problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the m i n i n g and b u r n i n g of c o a l . Growth i n c o a l p r o d u c t i o n i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i s l i k e l y t o be g r e a t e s t i n c o u n t r i e s t h a t a r e a l r e a d y l a r g e p r o d u c e r s , p a r t l y because they have d e v e l o p e d mines and the n e c e s s a r y i n f r a -s t r u c t u r e . 2_.1_.2_.6_ H y d r o e l e c t r i c Resource P o t e n t i a l Data c o n c e r n i n g h y d r o e l e c t r i c power p o t e n t i a l f o r most c o u n t r i e s of the w o r l d , and those most o f t e n c i t e d i n contemporary l i t e r a t u r e , a r e based on e s t i m a t e s made i n the e a r l y 1970s by the World Energy Conference (WEC, 1974). T h i s s o u r c e , which p r o v i d e s the most r e l i a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t i s c u r r e n t l y a v a i l a b l e , e s t i m a t e s the w o r l d ' s t h e o r e t i c a l h y d r o e l e c t r i c c a p a c i t y t o be about 2343 thousand megawatts. Of t h i s , a p p r o x i m a t e l y 51 p e r c e n t i s l o c a t e d i n the d e v e l o p i n g non-communist c o u n t r i e s . D u n k e r l e y e t a l . (1981b) a s s e r t t h a t the amount of p o t e n t i a l h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y s t i l l a v a i l a b l e i n a t l e a s t some d e v e l o p i n g n a t i o n s i s v e r y l a r g e compared t o any f o r e s e e a b l e p r o j e c t i o n of l o c a l need. In many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s the p o t e n t i a l f o r 48 h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y p r o d u c t i o n has o n l y been d e v e l o p e d t o a s m a l l e x t e n t . E x p l o r i n g p r o s p e c t s f o r i n c r e a s e d h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y s u p p l y i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , the World Bank (1979a:47) n o t e s t h a t , The p o t e n t i a l f o r i n c r e a s i n g hydropower o u t p u t i n many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s c o n s i d e r a b l e . For example, A f r i c a i s e s t i m a t e d t o have 22% of w o r l d hydropower r e s o u r c e s , but o n l y 2% of t h i s has been d e v e l o p e d . One problem i s t h a t many s i t e s have a p o t e n t i a l f a r i n excess of any l o c a l market demand f o r the energy, so t h a t the c o s t per u n i t of energy d e l i v e r e d becomes p r o h i b i t i v e l y h i g h . One s o l u t i o n t o t h i s problem i s t o l o c a t e e n e r g y - i n t e n s i v e i n d u s t r i e s , such as aluminium s m e l t e r s , near the hydro s i t e , as was done w i t h t h e V o l t a R i v e r development scheme i n Ghana. Another i s t o ar r a n g e t o e x p o r t the power t o n e i g h b o r i n g c o u n t r i e s where demand i s g r e a t e r , as was done i n the case of Uganda and Kenya. On the p r o s p e c t s of h y d r o e l e c t i c i t y c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o the energy needs of the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , S i d d i q i and Hein (1979:181) a s s e r t t h a t , Many c o u n t r i e s a l r e a d y o b t a i n a s i g n i f i c a n t p o r t i o n of t h e i r t o t a l energy from hydropower; f o r s e v e r a l of them, the p o t e n t i a l e x i s t s f o r meeting a l l t h e i r e s t i m a t e d 1990 demand from t h i s energy so u r c e a l o n e . F r e q u e n t l y though, the optimum l o c a t i o n f o r hydropower s i t e s i s i n remote a r e a s d i f f i c u l t of a c c e s s and f a r from the c e n t r e s of demand. A l s o , i n s e v e r a l c o u n t r i e s which have adequate p o t e n t i a l f o r hydropower p l a n s f o r t a p p i n g i t do not y e t e x i s t , making i t u n l i k e l y t h a t t h i s s ource of energy w i l l o f f e r a s u b s t a n t i a l c o n t r i b u t i o n by 1990. I t seems t h a t even though about h a l f of the w o r l d ' s hydropower p o t e n t i a l i s i n the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , and the p o t e n t i a l f o r i n c r e a s i n g hydropower o u t p u t i n many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s c o n s i d e r a b l e , the push towards development of hydropower f o r many c o u n t r i e s may r a i s e such f a m i l i a r problems as l a c k of investment c a p i t a l , s m a l l and i s o l a t e d l o c a l demands t h a t r a i s e o p e r a t i n g and maintenance c o s t s , and the l a c k of i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g the r e s o u r c e base. 49 2..1«2.2 N u c l e a r Energy N u c l e a r energy i s the most r e c e n t l y d e v e l o p e d of a l l of the commercial s o u r c e s of energy i n the w o r l d . N u c l e a r energy's share of w o r l d power p r o d u c t i o n has r i s e n from z e r o p e r c e n t i n 1957 t o around n i n e p e r c e n t by the end of J u l y 1982 (OPEC B u l l e t i n , 1982). The number of atomic e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i n g s t a t i o n s has grown from t h r e e i n two c o u n t r i e s t o about 277 i n t w e n t y - f o u r c o u n t r i e s w i t h i n t h i s p e r i o d . T a b l e 2.10 shows the s c h e d u l e d e x p a n s i o n of w o r l d n u c l e a r c a p a c i t y . The r o l e of n u c l e a r energy i n the e l e c t r i c power g e n e r a t i o n of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s s m a l l and r e s t r i c t e d t o a v e r y few c o u n t r i e s . D u r i n g 1981 d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s as a whole ac c o u n t e d f o r j u s t one p e r c e n t of t o t a l w o r l d net i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y of n u c l e a r g e n e r a t i n g p l a n t s , and about two p e r c e n t of w o r l d p r o d u c t i o n of about 798 b i l l i o n kwh. T h i s r e p r e s e n t s more than a s i x f o l d i n c r e a s e i n p r o d u c t i o n over 1970 f o r t h e d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s , and a n i n e f o l d i n c r e a s e f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . S e v e r a l e x p l a n a t i o n s have been o f f e r e d f o r the r e l a t i v e l y low r o l e of n u c l e a r energy i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s ( D u n k e r l e y et a l . , 1981b; Moss and Morgan, 1981; Eden e t a l . , 1981; World Bank, 1979a, 1980a). I n c l u d e d among the s e e x p l a n a t i o n s i s the argument t h a t most d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s l a c k e l e c t r i c i t y markets l a r g e enough and s u f f i c i e n t l y w e l l i n t e g r a t e d t o e c o n o m i c a l l y j u s t i f y the use of even the s m a l l e s t r e a c t o r u n i t s . S i m i l a r l y , l a r g e f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s a r e n e c e s s a r y t o e s t a b l i s h and o p e r a t e a system f o r g e n e r a t i o n of e l e c t r i c i t y based on n u c l e a r f u e l s , and the a p p r o p r i a t e s c i e n t i f i c and e n g i n e e r i n g s k i l l s a r e a l s o 50 TABLE 2.10 S c h e d u l e d E x p a n s i o n o f N u c l e a r  C a p a c i t y ( GW ( e ) i n O p e r a t i o n a t t h e  e n d - y e a r ) C o u n t r y 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 D e v e l o p e d C o u n t r i e s : M a r k e t E c o n o m i e s B e l g u i m 3 . 5 5 . 5 5 . 5 C a n a d a 7 . 3 1 1 . 1 1 4 . 5 F i n l a n d 2 . 2 2 . 2 2 . 2 F r a n e e 2 3 . li 4 4 . 2 5 4 . 8 - 7 6 . 7 G e r m a n y , W e s t 9 . 8 1 6 . li 2 3 . 0 - 2 6 . 8 I t a l y 1 . 2 1 . 3 3 . 2 J a p a n 1 6 . 6 2 4 . 7 2 6 . 8 - 31 . 7 N e t h e r l a n d s 0 . 5 0 . S 0 . .5 S p a i n 2 . 0 6 . 5 1 2 . 1 - 1 3 . 1 S w e d e n 7 . 3 9 . li 9 . , 4 S w i z e r l a n d 1 . 9 2 . ,9 2 . , 9 U n i t e d K i n g d o m 6 . 5 1 0 . , 1 1 2 . . 5 S o u t h A f r i c a -- 1 , . 8 1 , . 8 U n i t e d S t a t e s 6 2 . ,4 9 4 . , 3 1 1 9 , . 0 S u b - t o t a l C e n t r a l l y P l a n n e d E c o n o m i e s . 1 4 4 , . 6 2 3 0 . . 9 2 8 8 . 2 - 3 1 0 . 8 C z e c h o s l o v a k i a 0 , , 8 3 . . 3 4 .1 - 7 . 9 G e r m a n y . E a s t . 1 , , 7 1 . 7 1 . 7 H u n g a r y 0 , .it 1 . 2 1 . 6 P o l a n d -• -• 0 . 4 - 1 . 8 U S S R . 1 7 .2 3 6 . 7 4 7 . 7 - 6 8 . 8 S u b - t o t a l 2 0 .i 4 2 . 9 5 5 . 5 - 8 1 . 8 T o t a l D e v e l o p e d C o u n t r i e s 1 6 4 . 9 2 7 3 . 8 3 4 3 . 7 - 3 9 2 . 6 D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s : N e t - O i l E x p o r t i n g C o u n t r i e s . M e x i c o - - 0 . 6 0 . 6 - 1 . 3 S u b - t o t a l -- 0 , . 6 0 , . 6 -- 1 . 3 N e t - o i l I m p o r t i n g D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s . A r g e n t i a n 0 . 3 0 , . 9 1 . 6 B r a z i l 0 . 6 0 , . 6 1 . . 9 -• 3 . 1 B u l g a r i a 1 . 6 2. . 6 3 , . 5 • • 4 . 5 C u b a -- -• 0 .li • - 0 . B I n d i a 0 . 8 1 , . 2 1 , , 5 • - 1 . 7 K o r e a , R e p . 1 . 2 5, . 5 6 , . 5 • - 7 . 4 P a k i s t a n 0 . 1 0 . . 1 0 . . 1 P h i l i p p i n e s -- 0 . . 6 0 . . 6 R o m a n i a -- -• 0 , . 7 • - 1 . 3 T a i w a n 3 . 1 4 . . 9 4 , . 9 Y u g o s l a v i a 0 . 6 0 . . 6 0 . . 6 S u b - t o t a l 8 . 3 1 7 . . 0 2 2 . . 3 -- 2 6 . 6 T o t a l D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s 1 7 . , 6 2 2 . , 9 -• 2 7 . 9 W o r l d T o t a l 1 7 . 3 . 2 2 9 1 . .4 3 6 7 • 4 2 0 . S o u r c e : B a u n , V . 1 9 8 4 . I m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n W o r l d e n e r g y . P e t r o l e u m  E c o n o m i s t . J a n u a r y , 51 d i f f i c u l t t o o b t a i n . F u r t h e r , t h e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d ' s c o n c e r n a b o u t n u c l e a r p r o l i f e r a t i o n i s l i m i t i n g a c c e s s t o n u c l e a r t e c h n o l o g y and f u e l s . P r o b l e m s w i t h waste d i s p o s a l , p l a n t d i s c o m m i s s i o n i n g , p o s s i b l e a c c i d e n t s , low l e v e l r a d i a t i o n , and h a z a r d s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h f u e l t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v e a s f u r t h e r d i s i n c e n t i v e s t o i n c r e a s e d usage o f n u c l e a r power. F i n a l l y , n u c l e a r p l a n t i n s t a l l a t i o n r e q u i r e s a l e a d t i m e o f a b o u t t e n y e a r s . F a c t o r s s u c h as t h e s e have l e d Moss and Morgan (1981) t o c o n c l u d e t h a t n u c l e a r e n e r g y i s a l m o s t c e r t a i n l y t h e l e a s t a p p r o p r i a t e s u b s t i t u t e e n e r g y r e s o u r c e t o s u p p l y e i t h e r r u r a l o r u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n s i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . The OPEC B u l l e t i n ( 1 9 8 2 : 7 5 - 7 6 ) , on t h e o t h e r hand, s t a t e s t h a t , By t h e y e a r 2000, c u r r e n t IAEA e s t i m a t e s s a y , between 80,000 and 155,000 MWE of n u c l e a r c a p a c i t y w i l l p r o v i d e f o r a b o u t s e v e n p e r c e n t o f t o t a l e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n i n t h e T h i r d World. D u n k e r l e y e t a l . (1981b) i d e n t i f y f a c t o r s c o n t r i b u t i n g t o t h e e x p e c t e d i n c r e a s e i n n u c l e a r p r o d u c t i o n i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a s b e i n g t h e r e s u l t o f i n c r e a s i n g demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y , r i s i n g c o s t s o f a l t e r n a t i v e g e n e r a t i n g f a c i l i t i e s , a c o n c e r n f o r s e c u r i t y o f f u t u r e e n e r g y s u p p l i e s , and t h e w i l l i n g n e s s o f n u c l e a r v e n d o r s i n t h e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d t o p r o v i d e f i n a n c i n g . N e v e r t h e l e s s , as p o i n t e d o u t by t h e W o r l d Bank ( 1 9 8 0 a ) , t h e h i g h c o s t o f i n t r o d u c i n g a new and complex t e c h n o l o g y , f u e l a v a i l a b i l i t y , f u e l r e c y c l i n g , e n v i r o n m e n t a l f a c t o r s , f u e l s a f e t y , n a t i o n a l / i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l r e p e r c u s s i o n s , and p u b l i c a c c e p t a b i l i t y a r e f a c t o r s l i k e l y t o s l o w f u t u r e n u c l e a r d e v e l o p m e n t i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . In c o n c l u s i o n , t h e p r o b l e m o f r e d u c i n g t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d ' s d ependence on o i l t o meet i t s n o n t r a d i t i o n a l e n e r g y 52 needs a r i s e s from d i f f i c u l t i e s of i n t e r f u e l s u b s t i t u t i o n . W h i l e t h e r e a r e d i v e r s e n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy r e s o u r c e o p t i o n s , and a s u b s t a n t i a l share of the w o r l d ' s d e p o s i t s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , p u t t i n g t h e s e o p t i o n s and r e s o u r c e s t o use g e n e r a t e s i n t e r c o n n e c t e d t e c h n i c a l , s o c i a l , and economic i s s u e s which must be r e s o l v e d i f the n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy s u p p l y p o s i t i o n i s t o improve. 2.1.3 T r a d i t i o n a l Energy And S u p p l y C o n s t r a i n t s I n D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s T r a d i t i o n a l energy i n c l u d e s d i v e r s e t y p e s of f u e l , such as f i r e w o o d , c h a r c o a l , c r o p r e s i d u e s , and a n i m a l dung. D u r i n g e a r l y s t a g e s of development i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s t h e r e was a s h i f t from t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s t o the more c o n v e n i e n t , n o n t r a d i t i o n a l t y p e s . However, d e s p i t e tremendous urban growth i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , the v a s t m a j o r i t y of t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n c o n t i n u e s t o be l o c a t e d i n r u r a l a r e a s (Moss and Morgan, 1981). T r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s , p a r t i c u l a r l y f i r e w o o d , c o n t i n u e t o s e r v e major h o u s e h o l d and i n d u s t r i a l energy needs i n t h e s e r u r a l c o mmunities. Moreover, f i r e w o o d i s an i m p o r t a n t f u e l s o u r c e f o r a l a r g e p a r t of the urban p o p u l a t i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y the urban poor. T h i s s i t u a t i o n l e a d s the FAO (1983:8) t o c o n c l u d e t h a t , The t r a n s i t i o n from t r a d i t i o n a l t o commercial f u e l s , common t o the h i s t o r y of i n d u s t r i a l development i n the d e v e l o p e d w o r l d , w i l l i n a l l l i k e l i h o o d not occur i n many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i n the f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e . R a t h e r , r e c e n t e s t i m a t e s by FAO suggest t h a t a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h r e e - q u a r t e r s of the p o p u l a t i o n of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , or 2000 m i l l i o n p e o p l e , depend on t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s f o r domestic energy needs, and p r e d i c t t h a t t h i s number w i l l i n c r e a s e t o about 3000 m i l l i o n by the y e ar 2000 (FAO, 1981a,.1983). 53 T r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s , p a r t i c u l a r l y fuelwood, account f o r the l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of t o t a l energy use i n most of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . The World Bank (1980a:38) notes t h a t , In p o o r e r c o u n t r i e s [ n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy] s o u r c e s s u p p l y o n e - h a l f t o t h r e e - q u a r t e r s of the t o t a l energy used; the p r o p o r t i o n v a r i e s from 50-65 p e r c e n t i n A s i a t o 70-90 p e r c e n t i n A f r i c a . The World Bank (1980a) e s t i m a t e s t h a t t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s may account f o r r o u g h l y 20-25 p e r c e n t of the energy consumed i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , and s t a t e s t h a t i f a l l h ouseholds i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d which now use t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s were t o s w i t c h t o kerosene, t h e s e c o u n t r i e s ' demand f o r o i l would r i s e by 15 t o 20 p e r c e n t . There a r e c u r r e n t l y fuelwood s u p p l y s h o r t a g e s i n many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , w i t h f a r - r e a c h i n g consequences. S m i l and Knowland (1981:45) note t h a t , The p h y s i c a l s h o r t a g e s of f i r e w o o d i n c o u n t l e s s v i l l a g e s of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , and e x o r b i t a n t p r i c e s charged f o r i t i n the c i t i e s , a r e d i r e c t l y a f f e c t i n g v a s t l y l a r g e r numbers of pe o p l e than does m u l t i p l i c a t i o n of i m p o r t e d crude c o s t s . S i m i l a r l y , the World Bank (1980a:38) r e p o r t s t h a t , The demand f o r f u e l w o o d , the most i m p o r t a n t source of t r a d i t i o n a l energy f o r r e s i d e n t i a l u s e s , i n c l u d i n g c o o k i n g , has grown f a r f a s t e r than s u p p l y . Whereas v i l l a g e s once c o u l d u s u a l l y f i n d enough fuelwood near t h e i r homes, many now must s e a r c h f o r i t h a l f a day's walk or more away, and the urban poor must spend l a r g e p o r t i o n s of t h e i r incomes on f u e l . Many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e t h e r e f o r e f a c i n g a second energy c r i s i s which a f f e c t s p a r t i c u l a r l y the r u r a l s e c t o r s of t h e i r economies. To t h i s end, the FAO (1983:1) e s t i m a t e s t h a t , ... o v e r a l l perhaps 100 m i l l i o n p e o p l e a l r e a d y have t o l i v e w i t h a s h o r t a g e of f u e l f o r c o o k i n g and o t h e r b a s i c p u r p o s e s . P r o b a b l y a f u r t h e r 1000 m i l l i o n a r e l i v i n g i n s i t u a t i o n s where f u e l s u p p l i e s a r e b e i n g m a i n t a i n e d o n l y by d e s t r u c t i o n of the woody v e g e t a t i o n , so t h a t the i n c i d e n c e of s h o r t a g e s i s growing r a p i d l y . The a p a l l i n g s u f f e r i n g i n the S a h e l r e g i o n of A f r i c a i s a w e l l 54 known example. The l o s s of f o r e s t s i n t h i s a r e a , which has l e d t o d e s e r t encroachment, has l e f t p e o p l e w i t h n e i t h e r f u e l nor food ( F o l e y , 1981). T a b l e 2.11 i l l u s t r a t e s the fuelwood s i t u a t i o n as d e p i c t e d by the World Bank. Many c o u n t r i e s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d have a c t u a l or p o t e n t i a l fuelwood problems, but perhaps the most s t r i k i n g f e a t u r e of the t a b l e i s t h a t i t i s t h o s e c o u n t r i e s which a r e most dependent upon impor t e d o i l which f a l l i n t o t h i s c a t e g o r y ; t h r e e of the s i x t y - s i x c o u n t r i e s which a r e p e r c e i v e d to have a c t u a l or p o t e n t i a l fuelwood problems a r e OPEC members, s i x a r e non-OPEC net o i l e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s , and f i f t y - s e v e n a r e net o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . These c o u n t r i e s encompass 57 p e r c e n t of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . A c c o r d i n g t o the FAO (1981a:6), In the whole d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , fuelwood d e f i c i t s a f f e c t r o u g h l y 1150 m i l l i o n p e o p l e f o r an approximate amount of 400 m i l l i o n m3, but the s i t u a t i o n i s of s p e c i a l g r a v i t y i n A f r i c a and even more so i n A s i a . F u r t h e r d e s c r i p t i o n of the fuelwood s i t u a t i o n i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s as p r o v i d e d by the FAO i s shown i n T a b l e 2.12. T h i s t a b l e i n d i c a t e s the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n a f f e c t e d by d i m i n i s h i n g fuelwood s u p p l i e s , as w e l l as r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n a f f e c t e d . V a r i o u s e x p l a n a t i o n s have been o f f e r e d f o r the f i r e w o o d c r i s i s . One source s t a t e s t h a t the f r i g h t e n i n g r a t e of p o p u l a t i o n growth i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i s l e a d i n g t o the d e p l e t i o n of f o r e s t s f a s t e r than r e p l e n i s h m e n t i s o c c u r r i n g . T h i s v i e w p o i n t i s l i n k e d t o the e a r l y work of Thomas M a l t h u s , e n t i t l e d An_ Essay i n the P r i n c i p l e P o p u l a t i o n , 1789. W h i l e the major theme i s famine and a s t r o n g tendency f o r p o p u l a t i o n t o i n c r e a s e f a s t e r than f o o d s u p p l y because of the f i x e d s u p p l y of TABLE 2.11 THE FUELWOOD SITUATION IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES C o u n t r i e s w i t h A c t u a l or P o t e n t i a l Fuelwood Problems C o u n t r i e s Without Fuelwood Problems OPEC Members: Ecuador I n d o n e s i a N i g e r i a 23% of a l l OPEC c o u n t r i e s Non-OPEC net o i l e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s : Angola Burma Ch i n a Congo Egypt Z a i r e Net 43% of a l l non-OPEC net o i l e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s : A f g h a n i s t a n Bangladesh B e n i n Bhuton Chad Cameroon Cape Berde C e n t r a l A f r i c a n R e p u b l i c Cameroon Botswana E q u a t o r i a l Guinea E l S a l v a d o r E t h i o p i a Ghana Grenada Guinea H a i t i Honduras I n d i a D e m o c ratic Kampuchea Kenya L i b e r i a Loa R e p u b l i c Madagascar Malawi A l g e r i a Gabon I ran I r a q Kuwait L i b y a Qatar S. A r a b i a U.A.E. Ven e z u e l a B o l i v i a M a l a y s i a Mexico Oman Peru S y r i a T r i n i d a d Tuni s i a A l b a n i a A r g e n t i n a Bahamas Barbados B r a z i l C h i l e C o a s t a R i c a Columbia Cuba Cyprus Dominican R e p u b l i c F i j i Guatemala Guyana I v o r y Coast Jamaica J o r d a n R e p u b l i c of Korea Democratic Korea Suriname Turkey Uraquay Y u g o s l a v i a Guinea Romania 56 TABLE 2 . 1 1 (cont.) THE FUELWOOD SITUATION IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES C o u n t r i e s w i t h A c t u a l C o u n t r i e s W i t h o u t o r P o t e n t i a l F u e l w o o d P r o b l e m s F u e l w o o d P r o b l e m s N e t o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g M a l i T o g o M a l d i v e s Z a m b i a L e s o t h o Y e m e n S u d a n S r i L a n k a T h a i l a n d S w a z i l a n d T a n z a n i a U g a n d a U p p e r V o l t a V i e t n a m Z i m b a b w e G u i n e a B i s s M o z a m b i g u e P a k i s t a n B u r u n d i R w a n d a G a m b i a M a u r i t a n i a M o r o c c o N e p a l N i g e r P h i l i p p i n e s S a o T o m e a n d P r i n c i p e S e n e g a l S i e r r a L e o n e S o l o m o n I s l a n d s S o m a l i a W e s t e r n S a m o a c o u n t r i e s ( c o n t ' d ) M o n g o l i a M a l t a M a u r i t i u s N i c a r a g u a P a n a m a P a r a q u a y P o r t u g a l 6 5 % o f a l l n e t i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s T h i s t a b l e e x c l u d e s a l l c a p i t a l s u r p l u s o i l e x p o r t e r s , a n d c o u n t r i e s w i t h p o p u l a t i o n s l e s s t h a n 0 . 5 m i l l i o n . A c o u n t r y i s p e r c e i v e d t o b e e x p e r i e n c i n g a c t u a l o r p o t e n t i a l f u e l w o o d p r o b l e m s i f i t s e s t i m a t e d a n n u a l c o n s u m p t i o n o f f u e l w o o d c a n n o t b e s u s t a i n e d t h r o u g h t h e y e a r 2 0 0 0 , w i t h o u t d a m a g e t o t h e e c o l o g y , a t a l e v e l o f . 7 5 m 3 p e r c a p i t a w h e r e i n c o m e p e r h e a d i n 1 9 7 8 w a s b e l o w $ 3 0 0 , f a l l i n g l i n e a r l y t o . 5 0 m 3 a t $ 6 0 0 a n d z e r o a t $ 9 0 0 . M a n y c o u n t r i e s n o t i n c l u d e d i n t h i s g r o u p h a v e o r w i l l h a v e f u e l w o o d p r o b l e m s i n l o c a l a r e a s ( W o r l d B a n k , 1 9 8 1 : 5 ) . S o u r c e : W o r l d B a n k , 1 9 8 0 : E n e r g y i n D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s . W a s h i n g t o n , D . C : W o r l d B a n k , A u g u s t , p . 5 ; D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , 1 9 8 1 : F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g t h e C o m p o s i t i o n o f E n e r g y U s e i n D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s . W a s h i n g t o n , D . C . R e s o u r c e s F o r t h e F u t u r e , p . 1 4 . TABLE 2.12 Region Africa Near East and North Africa Asia Pacific Latin America FUELWOOD SHORTAGES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CURRENT AND FUTURE DIMENSION IN MILLIONS OF PEOPLE AFFECTED 1980 Acute Deficit ** Scarcity * TOTAL RURAL TOTAL RURAL 2000 . Prospective Acute Scarcity Deficit or Deficit TOTAL RURAL TOTAL RURAL 55 49 31 26 29 18 146 104 832 201 131 69 710 143 112 102 161 50 148 30 535 268 1671 512 464 464 1434 342 112 96 1283 1052 323 280 2986 2398 * An acute scarcity situation exists in zones or countries which have a negative wood energy balance; where existing fuelwood resources have been depleted to the point where populations cannot obtain sufficient fuelwood, even through overcutting; where cx>nsurtption is below mLnijjTum needs. ** Deficit sutuations occur in zones or countries where populations are s t i l l able to meet their minimum fuelwood needs, but only by overcutting existing resources. These resources are already insufficient to meet present needs on a sustainable basis, and are rapidly being depleted. Source: FAO, 1981: Map of the fuelwood situation in the developing countries. Rome: Food and Agriculture of United Nations. P.8 58 l a n d , Saouma (1981:3) remarks t h a t , I r o n i c a l l y , the M a l t h u s i a n nightmare t h r e a t e n s t o become r e a l i t y i n r e s p e c t not t o food but t o the f u e l f o r i t s p r e p a r a t i o n . The h i g h r a t e of p o p u l a t i o n growth i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i s l e a d i n g t o i n c r e a s i n g p r e s s u r e s on l a n d f o r a g r i c u l t u r e and s e t t l e m e n t , r e s u l t i n g i n the d e s t r u c t i o n of huge t r a c t s of woodlands. In a d d i t i o n , t h e r e i s a l o c a l i z e d o v e r - e x p l o i t a t i o n of wood r e s o u r c e s f o r fuelwood, or t i m b e r f o r h o u s i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n i n the v i c i n i t y of s e t t l e m e n t s . The World Bank (1980a:38) notes t h a t , ... the f o r e s t s of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e b e i n g consumed a t a r a t e of 1.3 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l f o r e s t a r e a , or 10 - 15 m i l l i o n h e c t a r e s a y e a r . . . . As fuelwood s u p p l i e s a r e e x h a u s t e d , a n i m a l and c r o p r e s i d u e s a r e burned d e p r i v i n g the s o i l s of v a l u a b l e n u t r i e n t s and o r g a n i c c o n d i t i o n i n g m a t e r i a l . The amount of dung now b e i n g burned a n n u a l l y i s b e l i e v e d t o be e q u i v a l e n t t o some 2 m i l l i o n tons of n i t r o g e n and phosphorous. In l i g h t of t h i s , the World Bank (1980a:39) e s t i m a t e s t h a t , On the o r d e r of 50 m i l l i o n h e c t a r e s of fuelwood would need t o be p l a n t e d i n the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s by the year 2000 t o s a t i s f y the p r o j e c t e d demand f o r domestic c o o k i n g and h e a t i n g . T h i s would n e c e s s i t a t e a f i v e - f o l d i n c r e a s e over c u r r e n t p l a n t i n g w o r l d wide. The gap between p r e s e n t and r e q u i r e d p l a n t i n g l e v e l s i s l a r g e i n a l l r e g i o n s , but p a r t i c u l a r l y so i n A f r i c a . Here i t i s e s t i m a t e d t h a t p l a n t i n g would have t o be i n c r e a s e d as much as 1 5 - f o l d t o a s s u r e adequate fuelwood s u p p l i e s . In A s i a , which a l r e a d y has s e r i o u s e r o s i o n problems, not o n l y must t o t a l p l a n t i n g be i n c r e a s e d , but s p e c i a l e f f o r t s must be made t o combine i n c r e a s e s i n p l a n t i n g w i t h measures t o c o n t r o l e r o s i o n . In a d d i t i o n t o o v e r - p o p u l a t i o n , a second e x p l a n a t i o n of the fuelwood c r i s i s i s o f f e r e d , based on the concept of the "Tragedy of the Commons" proposed by H a r d i n i n 1968. A c c o r d i n g t o t h i s e x p l a n a t i o n , the f i r s t - c o m e f i r s t - s e r v e d r u l e g o v e r n i n g the e x p l o i t a t i o n of u n r e g u l a t e d woodstocks i s p r o p e l l i n g consumption but not p r o d u c t i o n . W i t h r i s i n g p o p u l a t i o n , the 59 demand f o r fuelwood exceeds s u p p l y w i t h o u t a u t o m a t i c a l l y p r e s s u r i n g i n d i v i d u a l s a c t i n g i n t h e i r own i n t e r e s t t o i n v e s t i n s u p p l i e s n e c e s s a r y f o r meeting f u t u r e needs. In o t h e r words, w h i l e the i n d i v i d u a l s engaging i n fuelwood c o l l e c t i o n a r e l i k e l y t o be aware and concerned about the e c o l o g i c a l breakdown around them, they a r e s i m u l t a n e o u s l y i m m o b i l i s e d by the u n r e g u l a t e d common p r o p e r t y n a t u r e of t r e e s . For example, D u n k e r l e y e t a l . (1981b:35) remark t h a t , P a r t of the cause of the fuelwood c r i s i s i s t h a t i n many LDCs, fuelwood i s a common p r o p e r t y r e s o u r c e so t h a t u s e r s do not pay the f u l l c o s t s of fuelwood use and p r o d u c e r s do not r e c e i v e the f u l l b e n e f i t s of f u e l -wood i n v e s t m e n t s . A l a r g e share of fuelwood i s c o l l e c t e d f o r f r e e from l a n d s which a r e e i t h e r common p r o p e r t y where anyone may l e g a l l y c o l l e c t fuelwood, or from p r i v a t e or p u b l i c f o r e s t s where fuelwood c o l l e c t i o n i s t e c h n i c a l l y i l l e g a l but de_ f a c t o u n c o n t r o l l e d . There i s l i t t l e i n c e n t i v e f o r anyone t o under t a k e i n v e s t m e n t s t o i n c r e a s e the p r o d u c t i v i t y of t h e s e a r e a s . The b e n e f i t s t o any g i v e n i n d i v i d u a l of p l a n t i n g or p r o t e c t i n g t r e e s a r e d i l u t e d as o t h e r s r e c e i v e the advantages of h i s l a b o r . As a r e s u l t , r u r a l v i l l a g e r s who c o l l e c t fuelwood f o r t h e i r own use, as w e l l as fuelwood s e l l e r s and c h a r c o a l makers who ga t h e r fuelwood f o r s a l e t o o t h e r s , c u t e x c e s s i v e amounts of wood. These problems i n h e r e n t i n common p r o p e r t y use of f o r e s t l a n d a r e compounded by i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n , which i n c r e a s e s the demand f o r l a n d f o r o t h e r u s e s , as w e l l as the p r e s s u r e s upon r e m a i n i n g f o r e s t l a n d . T h i s common p r o p e r t y n a t u r e of f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s l e a d s the u s e r s t o spend more t i m e , energy and money t o meet t h e i r energy needs from the d w i n d l i n g s u p p l y base r a t h e r than i n v e s t i n r e g e n e r a t i o n of common p r o p e r t y wood s t o c k which somebody e l s e i s most l i k e l y t o consume. T h i s e t h i c u l t i m a t e l y l e a d s t o t o t a l d e f o r e s t a t i o n and e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e g r a d a t i o n , or a " t r a g e d y of the commons". As a s o l u t i o n t o t h i s problem i t has been sug g e s t e d t h a t the wood s t o c k be p r i v a t i z e d ; t h a t d i s i n c e n t i v e s t o t he p r o d u c t i o n of common p r o p e r t y t r e e s be reduced by 6 0 subdividing common property wood stock into exclusive units allocated to s p e c i f i c use communities. The Philippines, and the Gujurat state of India i l l u s t r a t e the success of small-holder cash tree farming projects for production of firewood, charcoal, or pulpwood (Spears, 1980). Nevertheless, such endeavors are not without the inevitable problem of enforcing the necessary r e s t r i c t i o n s . Individuals may p e r s i s t in c o l l e c t i n g trees from private or protected areas to s a t i s f y their needs for wood. Guarding against such i l l e g a l a c t i v i t i e s , where possible, i s l i k e l y to be c o s t l y . Furthermore, the p r i v a t i z a t i o n of wood i s l i k e l y to lead to i t s commercialization and, given that the majority of users in the developing world are poor, such a system may worsen the present income mal-distribution s i t u a t i o n of these regions. A t h i r d perspective on the fuelwood c r i s i s i s known as the climatic explanation. Sudden and prolonged variations in seasonal p r e c i p i t a t i o n i s manifested in numerous forms, including drought and d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n . The climatic change i s s i g n i f i c a n t , contributing to a dramatic decrease in vegetation and the rapid expansion of impoverished forest lands in most regions of A f r i c a and Asia. For example, the creeping d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n in Northern Nigeria i s due to a lack of r a i n f a l l and i s accompanied by violent wind storms which cause sand p a r t i c l e s to accumulate and submerge surrounding a g r i c u l t u r a l lands. This viewpoint suggests that a combination of reafforestation, s o i l and water conservation, and improved land use systems can dramatically a l t e r t h i s tragic picture. A major factor contributing to fuelwood s c a r c i t y i s the 61 use of t r a d i t i o n a l open f i r e s t o v e s , through which l a r g e amounts of energy a r e l o s t w h i l e b u r n i n g fuelwood and o t h e r o r g a n i c f u e l s ( D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , 1981b; World Bank, 1980c; C h a u v i n , 1981). Use of the t r a d i t i o n a l s t o v e y i e l d s an e f f i c i e n c y of o n l y f i v e t o ten p e r c e n t ( D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , 1981b; F r e n c h , 1978a, D r a p e r , 1977). The World Bank (1980b:9-10) n o t e s t h a t , At l e a s t as i m p o r t a n t as i n c r e a s i n g the s u p p l y of f i r e w o o d i s i m p r o v i n g the e f f i c i e n c y w i t h which i t i s used. The poor i n the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a c t u a l l y use more f u e l f o r c o o k i n g than p e o p l e i n i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s because they e f f e c t i v e l y use o n l y a s m a l l f r a c t i o n of the energy i n the f u e l s t h a t they b u r n . Most of the s t o v e s f o r t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s a c c o m p l i s h l i t t l e more than h o l d i n g the c o o k i n g v e s s e l a t an a p p r o p r i a t e h e i g h t above an e s s e n t i a l l y open f i r e . T h i s r e q u i r e s s u b s t a n t i a l fuelwood f o r a s m a l l u n i t of used energy o u t p u t . A study by Chauvin (1981) of Ouagadougou, the c a p i t a l of Upper V o l t a , e v a l u a t e s the e f f e c t t h a t the a d o p t i o n of improved s t o v e s c o u l d have on fuelwood s a v i n g s . H i s f i n d i n g s suggest t h a t a f a m i l y of e i g h t p e o p l e consumes 3285 kg of wood per y e a r , and t h a t t h i s consumption c o u l d be reduced t o 1643 kg of wood per year t h r o u g h the use of an improved s t o v e , c o n s i s t i n g of an earthenware b r i c k f i r e e n c l o s u r e w i t h chimney. N e v e r t h e l e s s , such new, e n e r g y - e f f i c i e n t s t o v e s must be a c c e p t a b l e t o the pe o p l e f o r whom they a r e d e s i g n e d i f they a r e to be i n s t r u m e n t a l i n r e d u c i n g the fuelwood s h o r t a g e i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . As the World Bank (1980b:10) n o t e s , Improved s t o v e s have been d e v e l o p e d i n many c o u n t r i e s but s u c c e s s f u l e f f o r t s t o get them i n t o w i d e s p r e a d use a r e few. A f u r t h e r c o n t r i b u t i n g f a c t o r t o fuelwood s c a r c i t y i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i n v o l v e s the s u b s t i t u t i o n of fuelwood f o r o i l and gas, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n urban a r e a s . Recent d r a m a t i c i n c r e a s e s 62 i n o i l and gas p r i c e s have l e d t o growing s u b s t i t u t i o n of fuelwood and c h a r c o a l i n urban c e n t r e s , t h e r e b y i n t e n s i f y i n g wood s u p p l y problems. Moss and Morgan (1981:30-31) note t h a t , In some c o u n t r i e s , n o t a b l y i n I n d i a , kerosene i s s u b s i d i s e d i n o r d e r t o encourage i t s use and so d i s c o u r a g e the use of wood i n o r d e r t o save the t r e e s . W h i l e t h i s p r o v i d e s a s h o r t term s o l u t i o n t o the problem, i t may y i e l d some n e g a t i v e consequences. For c o u n t r i e s w i t h o u t i n d i g e n e o u s o i l r e s o u r c e s t h i s might mean i n c r e a s e d dependence on c o s t l y i m p o r t e d o i l . The v a r i o u s f a c t o r s which c o n t r i b u t e t o fuelwood s c a r c i t y t h roughout the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d must be a d d r e s s e d s i m u l t a n e o u s l y i n s e e k i n g a s o l u t i o n t o t r a d i t i o n a l energy s u p p l i e s f o r domestic use. In the l o n g term, wood f u e l problems w i l l have t o be r e s o l v e d t h r o u g h the c r e a t i o n of new and a d d i t i o n a l r e s o u r c e s , u s i n g a f f o r e s t a t i o n and r e f o r e s t a t i o n programs which some c o u n t r i e s are a l r e a d y a t t e m p t i n g . As Pasca (1981:2) n o t e s , As u s u a l , the s o l u t i o n s go beyond t e c h n o l o g y . They i n v o l v e a nexus of t e c h n o l o g i c a l , economic, s o c i o -c u l t u r a l and p o l i t i c a l f a c t o r s . Remedies or p r e s c r i p t i o n s f o r r e s o l v i n g the energy problems of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d must t a k e i n t o account a l l a s p e c t s of t h e s e c o u n t r i e s ' energy needs, i n c l u d i n g t e c h n i c a l , economic and non-economic f a c t o r s , as w e l l as user p r e f e r e n c e f o r v a r i o u s f u e l t y p e s . C H A P T E R 3 P O L I C Y O P T I O N S AND P U B L I C A C C E P T A N C E 3.1 R e m e d i e s A n d P r e s c r i p t i o n s Problems of h i g h energy c o s t s and c o n s t r a i n t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the a v a i l a b i l i t y of energy s o u r c e s both n o n t r a d i t i o n a l and t r a d i t i o n a l have t r i g g e r e d an e x a m i n a t i o n of energy p o l i c y o p t i o n s f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . S e v e r a l i s s u e s of debate have a r i s e n over t h i s m a t t e r , one of which r e l a t e s t o p r o s p e c t s f o r energy c o n s e r v a t i o n i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n , a c c o r d i n g t o T o l b a (1978), i n v o l v e s the s t r a t e g y of a d j u s t i n g and o p t i m i z i n g e n e r g y - u s i n g systems and p r o c e d u r e s so as t o reduce energy r e q u i r e m e n t s per u n i t of output w i t h o u t a f f e c t i n g s o c i o - e c o n o m i c development or c a u s i n g d i s r u p t i o n i n l i f e - s t y l e s . Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n , t h e r e f o r e , c a l l s f o r making what i s a v a i l a b l e go f u r t h e r . To some a u t h o r s , energy c o n s e r v a t i o n p o l i c i e s seem of l i t t l e use t o d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , because of t h e i r r e l a t i v e l y low energy consumption, which i s due t o the low average income of the m a j o r i t y of t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n . S m i l and Knowland (1981:8) note t h a t , [Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n ] , so i m p e r a t i v e f o r the advanced n a t i o n s , i s , o b v i o u s l y , of a l i m i t e d use i n most of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d where r e f i n e d f u e l s a r e not wasted on i n e f f i c i e n t i n d i v i d u a l t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , energy-i n t e n s i v e l e i s u r e a c t i v i t i e s , and w a s t e f u l space h e a t i n g and c o o l i n g . There i s , n a t u r a l l y , room f o r improved c o n v e r s i o n e f f i c i e n c i e s but such s t e p s a l o n e cannot even p e r c e p t i b l y slow the growing demand. D u n k e r l e y e t a l . (1981a:124), on the o t h e r hand, a r e of the o p i n i o n t h a t , Even t a k i n g i n t o account r i s i n g consumption a s s o c i a t e d w i t h i n c r e a s i n g economic development, t h e r e a r e i m p o r t a n t o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o c o n s e r v e energy i n both the t r a d i t i o n a l and commercial s e c t o r s . 63 64 S i m i l a r o p t i m i s m i s d i s p l a y e d by T o l b a (1978:11) when he remarks t h a t , The commonly h e l d axiom t h a t " o n l y the a f f l u e n t can a f f o r d c o n s e r v a t i o n " i s t h o r o u g h l y d i s c r e d i t e d by an e x a m i n a t i o n of what has r e c e n t l y been c a l l e d "the o t h e r energy c r i s i s : f i r e w o o d " . Proper management of energy r e s o u r c e s i s e s s e n t i a l i n the poor c o u n t r i e s because of energy's importance i n domestic l i f e , a g r i c u l t u r e , the c r e a t i o n of p r o d u c t i v e j o b s , and the b a l a n c i n g of t r a d e w i t h o t h e r n a t i o n s . T o l b a goes on t o e x p l a i n the economic and e n v i r o n m e n t a l b e n e f i t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h energy c o n s e r v a t i o n p o l i c i e s , when he p o i n t s out t h a t , Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n today w i l l a l l o w the e a r t h ' s l i m i t e d r e s o u r c e s base of h i g h - q u a l i t y f u e l s t o be " s t r e t c h e d " f u r t h e r . I t w i l l e n a b l e f u t u r e g e n e r a t i o n s t o share i n the e a r t h ' s f i n i t e s t o c k of f o s s i l f u e l s . Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n w i l l a l l o w a p o r t i o n of the s e f u e l s t o be r e s e r v e d f o r non-energy p u r p o s e s : d r u g s , l u b r i c a n t s , and o t h e r compounds. I t w i l l h e l p reduce e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e g r a d a t i o n a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a l l c u r r e n t energy p r o d u c t i o n t e c h n o l o g i e s . Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n w i l l p e r m i t the av o i d a n c e o f , or m i n i m a l r e l i a n c e on, d o u b t f u l energy s o u r c e s w h i l e the s e a r c h f o r s a f e , s u s t a i n a b l e s o u r c e s c o n t i n u e s . C o n s e r v a t i o n a l s o d e c r e a s e s the l i k e l i h o o d t h a t the c l i m a t o l o g i c a l t h r e s h o l d ( f o r example, w i t h c arbon d i o x i d e p r o d u c t i o n , or w i t h r e g i o n a l heat g e n e r a t i o n ) w i l l be c r o s s e d , t r i g g e r i n g consequences t h a t may be d e v a s t a t i n g . Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n u ndoubtedly has some advantages f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n may l i m i t t h e r a t e of o i l d e p l e t i o n i n net o i l e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s and ex t e n d the l e n g t h of time t h a t revenue w i l l be earned from t h i s r e s o u r c e . In net o i l i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s , c o n s e r v a t i o n may reduce o i l import c o s t s and b a l a n c e of payments problems. Suggested measures f o r c o n s e r v a t i o n of both n o n t r a d i t i o n a l and t r a d i t i o n a l energy i n v o l v e g r e a t e r use of more e f f i c i e n t energy end-use and c o n s e r v a t i o n t e c h n o l o g i e s . The mix of t r a n s p o r t methods c o u l d be changed, s h i f t i n g t r a f f i c from l e s s 65 t o more e f f i c i e n t c a r r i e r s such as p u b l i c passenger t r a n s p o r t , and i n c r e a s i n g l o a d f a c t o r s (World Bank, 1981b). The development of h i g h and low grade c o a l as s u b s t i t u t e s f o r o i l i n e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n , f o r r a i l w a y t r a n s p o r t , and f o r domestic uses a r e f u r t h e r methods of o i l c o n s e r v a t i o n (Eden e t a l . , 1981). In the i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r energy c o n s e r v a t i o n o p p o r t u n i t i e s a r i s e p a r t l y from changes i n the mix of p r o d u c t s , and p a r t l y from changes i n the methods of p r o d u c t i o n . Such changes might t a k e the form of s e l e c t i n g energy c o n s e r v i n g p r o c e s s e s . For example, m a t e r i a l s whose p r o d u c t i o n i s energy i n t e n s i v e may be r e c y c l e d , or t h e r e may be a s w i t c h from more t o l e s s c o s t l y s o u r c e s of i n d u s t r i a l energy s u p p l y t h r o u g h a p r i c i n g p o l i c y which e n s u r e s t h a t , as f a r as p o s s i b l e , the p r i c e of energy r e f l e c t s the r e a l economic c o s t ( D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , 1981b; World Bank, 1981b). The World Bank (1981b) recommends t h a t measures aimed a t r e d u c i n g o i l dependence c o n c e n t r a t e on improvement i n the energy e f f i c i e n c y of the i n d u s t r i a l and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r s , and on d e t e r m i n i n g s u i t a b l e p r i c i n g p o l i c i e s . C o n s e r v a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s f o r t r a d i t i o n a l energy i n v o l v e the replacement of most t r a d i t i o n a l open f i r e s t o v e s , which waste about 90 p e r c e n t of t h e i r h e a t , as mentioned e a r l i e r . S i m i l a r l y , c h a r c o a l i s p r e s e n t l y produced by f e l l i n g t r e e s and b u r n i n g them i n sand c o v e r e d p i t s , r e s u l t i n g i n s u b s t a n t i a l energy waste. E s t i m a t e s suggest about a 55 p e r c e n t l o s s of energy d u r i n g t h i s p r o c e s s of c h a r c o a l p r o d u c t i o n ( E a r l , 1975). F r e n c h (1978a) r e p o r t s l o s s e s as h i g h as 50 t o 80 p e r c e n t i n A f r i c a and A s i a , even when hardwood i s used. C h a r c o a l 6 6 p r o d u c t i o n c o u l d be improved t h r o u g h the i n t r o d u c t i o n of improved k i l n s , but not w i t h o u t some t r a d e - o f f s . As Moss and Morgan (1981:27) r e p o r t , The more s o p h i s t i c a t e d k i l n s and r e t o r t s a r e f i x e d and e x p e n s i v e , but e x t r e m e l y e f f i c i e n t . E a r t h and p i t k i l n s and p o r t a b l e s t e e l k i l n s a r e much l e s s e f f i c i e n t , even w a s t e f u l of f u e l , but a r e cheaper and much more m o b i l e . Development and i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of t h e s e and o t h e r c o n s e r v a t i o n programs r e q u i r e the s y s t e m a t i c c o l l e c t i o n of d a t a on energy consumption by major forms of s u p p l y and f o r each of the main end-use s e c t o r s ( D u n k e r l e y , e t a l . , 1981b). I n f o r m a t i o n i s a l s o r e q u i r e d c o n c e r n i n g methods of r e d u c i n g energy demands w i t h o u t impeding economic growth. Eden et a l . (1981) i d e n t i f y some major o b s t a c l e s t o the a d o p t i o n of energy c o n s e r v a t i o n p o l i c i e s . For example, government p r i o r i t i e s may c o n f l i c t . The g o a l s of c o n t r o l l e d i n f l a t i o n , r e d u c t i o n of unemployment, i n c r e a s e d i n v e s t m e n t , and the b a l a n c e of payments a r e l i k e l y t o t a k e precedence over energy c o n s e r v a t i o n measures i n v o l v i n g h i g h energy p r i c e s or t a x e s aimed a t r e d u c i n g consumption, measures which may i n t u r n s t i m u l a t e i n f l a t i o n a r y wage demands. S i m i l a r l y , i n v e s t m e n t s i n new energy a l t e r n a t i v e s aimed a t r e d u c i n g o i l i m p o r t s may l e a d t o import c o s t s of new equipment and t e c h n o l o g y ; the promotion of e c o n o m i c a l passenger c a r s t h r o u g h h i g h g a s o l i n e t a x e s may n e c e s s i t a t e the import of s m a l l c a r s , and worsen the c o u n t r y ' s b a l a n c e of payment s i t u a t i o n . A second o b s t a c l e t o the a d o p t i o n of energy c o n s e r v a t i o n p o l i c i e s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d c e n t r e s around the c o s t s of e n f o r c i n g such p o l i c i e s . G i v e n the u n c e r t a i n t y t h a t such measures w i l l have p o s i t i v e r e s u l t s , government i n t e r v e n t i o n and 67 a l l o c a t i o n of p u b l i c funds seems u n l i k e l y . Y e t , d e s p i t e such c o n s t r a i n t s , the World Bank (1981a) c o n c l u d e s t h a t c o n s e r v a t i o n i s p r o b a b l y the b e s t medium-term p a t h t o r e d u c t i o n of t o t a l energy consumption and w a r r a n t s c l o s e r a t t e n t i o n . A major theme of s t u d i e s c o n c e r n i n g energy p o l i c i e s of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i s the n o t i o n t h a t t h e s e c o u n t r i e s , u n l i k e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d n a t i o n s , s h o u l d a v o i d dependence on hydrocarbon f u e l s such as o i l and n a t u r a l gas, or nonrenewable energy o r i e n t e d t e c h n o l o g i e s (World Bank, 1979a, 1981b; Reddy, 1979; F r e n c h , 1978b; H i l l i n g , 1976; E a r l , 1975; P a r i k h , 1978). For example, E a r l (1975:103) remarks t h a t , I t i s p a r t i c u l a r l y dangerous f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s t o r e l y upon t r e n d s which have o c c u r r e d i n the p r e s e n t d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . O i l r e s o u r c e s a r e b e i n g d e p l e t e d a t a much f a s t e r r a t e than f o r m e r l y and t h i s i s c e r t a i n t o l e a d t o s u b s t a n t i a l p r i c e i n c r e a s e s not o n l y f o r o i l but f o r a l l s u b s t i t u t e s . A l t h o u g h d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s w i t h adequate funds w i l l u t i l i z e t h e i r consumer s u r p l u s t o purchase f u e l f o r t h e i r expanding needs, the o u t l o o k f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s b l e a k s i n c e s u b s t i t u t i o n i s r e a l i s t i c o n l y f o r t h o s e c o u n t r i e s which can a f f o r d the s u b s t i t u t e s . S i m i l a r l y , M a k h i j a n i ( 1 9 8 1 : 1 5 ) i s of the o p i n i o n t h a t , In t h e i r r u s h t o i m i t a t e the West, the p l a n n e r s and p o l i t i c i a n s of poor c o u n t r i e s c o n s i s t e n t l y opt f o r what i s known as " h i g h t e c h n o l o g y " or "advanced t e c h n o l o g y " , terms u s u a l l y u n d e f i n e d but i m p l i c i t l y t a ken t o mean " c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e t e c h n o l o g y " . Many of t h e s e t e c h n o l o g i e s a r e e c o l o g i c a l l y unsound and d e b a s i n g t o human d i g n i t y . ... The s o l u t i o n s t o the problems of development c a l l f o r the use of r e s o u r c e s i n a manner t h a t i s r a d i c a l l y d i f f e r e n t from the way they a r e , or have been, used i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s . The l i t e r a t u r e s u g g e s t s t h a t r a t h e r than r e l y on l a r g e s c a l e , c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e , nonrenewable e n e r g y - o r i e n t e d t e c h n o l o g y , d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s s h o u l d t u r n t o biomass, b i o g a s , s o l a r , windpower, m i n i h y d r o , t i d a l power, wave power, and 68 geothermal energy. The World Bank (1979b:1-2), f o r example, a s s e r t s t h a t , M o d e r n i z a t i o n v i r t u a l l y r e q u i r e s the use of e l e c t r i c i t y and m e c h a n i c a l energy from machines, y e t the c o s t of t h e s e t e c h n o l o g i e s i s t o o h i g h t o p e r m i t t h e i r r a p i d e x t e n s i o n t h r o u g h the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . The o n l y s i m p l e r e s o l u t i o n t o t h i s dilemma i s t o deny the p o s s i b i l i t y of p r o v i d i n g modern means of p r o d u c t i o n and a m e n i t i e s t o most of the w o r l d ' s p o p u l a t i o n i n the f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e by c o n t i n u i n g t o r e l y s o l e l y on c o n v e n t i o n a l e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n and i n t e r n a l combustion e n g i n e s . At l e a s t t h r e e a l t e r n a t i v e approaches s h o u l d be p u r s u e d : making more e f f e c t i v e use of d r a f t a n i m a l s , d e v e l o p i n g t e c h n o l o g i e s t h a t may p e r m i t economic use of l o c a l l y - a v a i l a b l e wind, hydro, and s o l a r energy i n some a r e a s . S i d d i q i and Hein (1979:165-166) note t h a t , C o u n t r i e s w i t h o u t adequate energy r e s o u r c e s of t h e i r own w i l l be competing i n the f u t u r e w i t h advanced i n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t i e s f o r the d w i n d l i n g s u p p l i e s of f o s s i l f u e l s and uranium. In many c a s e s , they w i l l be a t a d i s a d v a n t a g e i n t h i s c o m p e t i t i o n because of t h e i r i n a b i l i t y t o e x p o r t adequate amounts of raw m a t e r i a l s or f i n i s h e d p r o d u c t s i n s u f f i c i e n t q u a n t i t i e s t o pay f o r the h i g h c o s t of i m p o r t e d energy. I t thus seems e s s e n t i a l t h a t such c o u n t r i e s s h o u l d s e r i o u s l y c o n s i d e r the p o t e n t i a l of a l t e r n a t e energy s o u r c e s , e s p e c i a l l y renewable ones, such as h y d r o e l e c t r i c power, wind, and s o l a r energy. T e c h n o l o g i e s and a p p l i c a t i o n of a l t e r n a t e new energy o p t i o n s a r e d i s c u s s e d e x t e n s i v e l y i n the c u r r e n t l i t e r a t u r e , and a r e summarized i n F i g u r e 3.1 and i n T a b l e s 3.1, 3.2, and 3.3. These t e c h n o l o g i e s can be d i v i d e d i n t o those t h a t e n t a i l the p r o d u c t i o n of t h e r m a l , m e c h a n i c a l , and e l e c t r i c a l energy from d i r e c t s o l a r , wind, and s m a l l s c a l e hydropower (World Bank, 1981b). The use of energy f i x e d i n o r g a n i c matter by the p r o c e s s of p h o t o s y n t h e s i s has t r a d i t i o n a l l y f o c u s e d on the d i r e c t combustion of biomass energy s o u r c e s . However, as a r e s u l t of the r i s i n g p r i c e s of o i l , t h e r e has been i n c r e a s i n g i n t e r e s t i n the more e f f i c i e n t u t i l i z a t i o n of biomass energy t h r o u g h c o n v e r s i o n of biomass r e s o u r c e s t o s y n t h e t i c f u e l s w i t h 69 MAJOR RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES AND APPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Direct Solar Energy 8 6 S ^ t e n s Wind Energy / / Wind energy Conversion Systems / Mechanical Energy Heat Energy Prime movers (e.g., organic Rankine cycle engine, turbines) Examples of End Uses Domestic hot water, space heating and co o l -ing, crop drying, cooking, d e s a l i n a t i o n , i n d u s t r i a l process heat Water pumping, grain grinding, transportation, I n d u s t r i a l shaft power S o u r c e : W o r l d Bank, 1981: M o b i l i z i n g R e n e w a b l e E n e r g y T e c h n o l o g y i n D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s :  S t r e n g t h e n i n g L o c a l C a p a b i l i t i e s a n d R e s e a r c h . J u l y . p . 2 1 . TABLE 3.1 TECHNOLOGIES FOR CONVERSION OF-BIOMASS INTO USABLE'FUELS Conversion Processed Starting Needs for Research, Development, and Demonstra- Needs for Information and Process Fuel Material t i o n Standardization Major Gaps Who should f i l l Large-scale Small-scale these gaps technology technology Extraction Fermentation Enzymatic diges-t i o n and fermen-tation Fuel o i l Ethanol Ethanol O i l seeds Sugar, starch Wood Evaluation of existing small-scale equipment Improvement i n yields and process e f f i c i e n c y Improvements i n bio-chemical and engin-eering process e f f i -ciency Developing country None laboratory or con-su l t i n g firm Industrial sector i n B developed and develop-ing countries Industrial sector i n None developed and developing countries A , B None O G a s i f i c a t i o n / Liquefaction Carbonization Anaerobic digestion Methanol Charcoal Gas/biogas (methane) Wood or other cellulose Wood Animal and a g r i c u l t u r a l residues Develop technoeconomi-c a l l y e f f i c i e n t process Improvements i n yields and process e f f i c i e n c y ; adaptive research on small-scale plants Microbiological, mat-e r i a l s and substrate research, l o c a l adapta-tio n and s o c i a t a l i s -sues Industrial sector i n developed and advanced developing countries Private organizations and rirms i n LDCs with external collaboration Public and private Laboratories; private organizations and f i r m 6 i n developing countries None None A,B TABLE 3.1 continued TECHNOLOGIES FOR CONVERSION OF BIOMASS INTO USABLE FUELS C o n v e r s i o n Process P r o c e s s e d F u e l S t a r t i n g M a t e r i a l Needs f o r Research, Development, and Demonstra-t i o n Major Gaps Who s h o u l d f i l l t h e s e gaps Needs f o r I n f o r m a t i o n and S t a n d a r d i z a t i o n L a r g e - s c a l e t e c h n o l o g y S m a l l - s c a l e t e c h n o l o g y P y r o l y s i s o i l , c h a r , gas Urban wastes, a g r i c u l t u r a l r e s i d u e s , wood A d a p t a t i o n t o l o c a l c o n d i t i o n s D e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y i n s u s t r i a l s e c t o r None B r i q u e t t i n g B r i q u e t t e s A g r i c u l t u r a l r e s i d u e s , straw Development and adapta-t i o n o f s m a l l - s c a l e machines P u b l i c and p r i v a t e L a b o r a t o r i e s , p r i v a t e o r g a n i z a t i o n s , and f i r m s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s A,B G a s i f i c a t i o n Producer gas Wood, a g r i c u l t u r a l r e s i d u e s Process improvement, a d a p t a t i o n t o v a r i o u s f e e d s t o c k s , d e v e l o p -ment o f s m a l l - s c a l e machines P u b l i c and p r i v a t e l a b o r a t o r i e s , p r i v a t e o r g a n i z a t i o n s and f i r m s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s A,B Notes: A. Develop agreed e v a l u a t i o n methodology f o r u s e r s ; encourage exchange o f d e s i g n and performance d a t a among workers i n d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s ; review s t a t e o f the a r t . B. Develop and promulgate standards by which manufacturers can r e p o r t performance d a t a , and c r i t e r i a by which u s e r s can judge s u i t a b i l i t y t o v a r i o u s a p p l i c a t i o n s . Source: World Bank, 1981: Mobilizing Renewable Energy Technolocjy in  Developing Countries: Strengthening Local Capabilities a n d Kesearcn. July, p.j^a. TABLE 3.2 TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE USE OF FUELS DERIVED FROM BIOMASS ForMS of Energy Technology Major Techno log ica l Hho Should F i l l Needs f o r I n f o r n a t i o n Gaps These Gaps and S t a n d a r d i z a t i o n MediuM tempera tu re heat <100-300 d e g . D ( cook ing ) Cooking s t o r e s Local a d a p t a t i o n and f a b r i c a t i o n Deve lop ing c o u n t r y l a b o r a t o r i e s , e x t e n s i o n and a r t i s a n t r a i n i n g s e r v i c e s , p r i v a t e o r g a n i z a t i o n s fl, B, C High t e n p e r a t u r e heat <above 300 deg.C) D i r e c t coHbustion None B Mechanical s h a f t power I n t e r n a l conbus t ion engine More e f f i c i e n t a l coho l powered eng ines : a d a p t a t i o n o f d i e s e l eng ines t o b i o n a s s -based f u e l s I n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r i n developed and M o r e advanced d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s fl, B Pedal power Deuelopnent and assessment o f a l t e r n a t i v e designs N a t i o n a l l a b o r a t o r i e s , r u r a l e x t e n s i o n bod ies C D r a f t aniH-al power C Notes : fl. Develop agreed Methodology f o r e v a l u a t i o n bg u s e r s ; encourage exchange o f des ign and per fo rnance da ta anong workers i n d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s ; rev iew s t a t e o f the a r t . B. Develop and proMulgate s tandards by which Manufacturers or f a b r i c a t o r s can r e p o r t perforwance d a t a , i n c l u d i n g suitability c r i t e r i a f o r Most i n p o r t a n t i M p l i c a t i o n s . C. Rek ind le interest in h i t h e r t o neglected t e c h n o l o g y , e . g . , by e d u c a t i o n a l Materials, c o n f e r e n c e s , snail research grants or demonstrations. Source: wo r ld Bank, 1981: M o b i l i z i n g Renewable Energy Technology i n Develop ing C o u n t r i e s : S t r e n g t h e n i n g Loca l C a p a b i l i t i e s  and Research. J u l y , p. 34a . 73 TABLE 3.3 MAJOR TECHNOLOGIES FOR USE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES FOR THE PRODUCTION OF HEAT, MECHANICAL, AND ELECTRICAL ENERGY Form o f Energy T e c h n o l o g y Major T e c h n o l o g i c a l Who S h o u l d F i l l Needs F or Gaps These Gaps I n f o r m a t i o n And Stand-a r d i z a t i o n Heat Solar C o l l e c t o r s F l a t Plate Local Adaptation and manufacture Developing, country labs and i n d u s t r i a l sector A, B Focusing Design and materials improvement Developed country labs and i n d u s t r i a l sector B Solar crop Local adaptation and Developing country A, B drying manufacture labs and i n d u s t r i a l sector Solar Low cost heat storage Labs and private A cookers and transmission organizations in developed and dev-eloping countries S o l a r ponds Research on unlimited ponds, control of wind e f f e c t s , l o c a l adaptation and f a b r i c a t i o n Developing country i n d u s t r i a l and public sector labs A,C M e c h a n i c a l S h a f t Power Commercial Wind-Pumpers Local manufacture D e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r S a i l W i n d m i l l s R e l i a b l e p e r f o r m a n c e d a t a ; c o m p a r a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n and improvement o f t r a d i t i o n a l d e s i g n s Labs and private organizations i n developed and developing countries A, B A,C E l e c t r i c i t y G e n e r a t i o n S m a l l Hydro L o c a l a d a p t a t i o n and m a n u f a c t u r e Wind G e n e r a t o r s Photovoltaic Develop and t e s t equipment Developing country i n d u s t r i a l sector and government agencies Developed country i n d u s t r i a l sector Cost reduction i n c e l l s and "balance of system" costs; encouragement of applications where market incentives are l i m i t e d Developed country i n d u s t r i a l sector A, B A,B C B,C Notes: A. Develop agreed methodology f o r evaluation by users; encourage exchange of design and performance data among workers i n d i f f e r e n t countries; review state of the art . B. Develop and promulgate standards by which manufacturers can report performance data, including s u i t a b i l i t y c r i t e r i a for most important a p p l i c a t i o n s . C. Generate p e r f o r m a n c e d a t a by i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y managed o r c o o r d i n a t e d f i e l d d e m o n s t r a t i o n s . a. When technology nears techno-econoraic f e a s i b i l i t y . b. For s p e c i f i c a p p l i c a t i o n s f o r which private investment i s l i k e l y to be inadequate. Source: World Bank, 1981. Mob i l i z i n g Renewable Energy Technology in Developing Countries:  Strengthening Local C a p a b i l i t i e s and Research? July, p.36a. 74 h i g h e r energy c o n t e n t . For example, g a s o l i n e s u b s t i t u t e s can be produced from biomass by f e r m e n t a t i o n and d i s t i l l a t i o n of p l a n t s u g a r s t o produce e t h a n o l , by the g a s i f i c a t i o n and l i q u e f a c t i o n of wood t o produce methanol, and by the p y r o l y s i s of wood and c r o p r e s i d u e s t o produce gas (World Bank, 1981b). P r o d u c t i o n of s y n t h e t i c f u e l s from biomass i s c l a i m e d t o be a t t r a c t i v e f o r the f o l l o w i n g g e n e r a l r e a s o n s : the amount of r e s o u r c e s i s p o t e n t i a l l y abundant and a v e r s a t i l e energy s o u r c e ; biomass i s a renewable r e s o u r c e ; biomass energy has low p o l l u t i n g i m p u r i t i e s and the p r o c e s s of s y n t h e t i c f u e l p r o d u c t i o n from biomass c o u l d m i n i m i z e the waste d i s p o s a l problem; biomass f u e l s can be produced t h r o u g h l a r g e s c a l e i n d u s t r i a l p r o c e s s e s , or on a s m a l l s c a l e f o r l o c a l use (World Bank, 1981b; Rahmer, 1979; T o l b a , 1978) . S i m i l a r l y , e l e c t r i c i t y may be g e n e r a t e d v i a s m a l l - s c a l e hydro i n s t a l l a t i o n s or from a system combining t h e r m a l energy from s o l a r t h e r m a l p l a n t s . E l e c t r i c i t y may a l s o be g e n e r a t e d from s o l a r energy by p h o t o v o l t a i c c e l l s and by s m a l l or l a r g e s c a l e wind e l e c t r i c c o n v e r s i o n systems. Among the wide range of new energy o p t i o n s so f a r d i s c u s s e d , s o l a r c o o k e r s , b i o g a s , and improved wood s t o v e s a r e the most commonly proposed a l t e r n a t i v e energy t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r h o u s e h o l d use i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . Development and a p p l i c a t i o n of such a l t e r n a t e new energy t e c h o l o g i e s has been d i s c u s s e d e x t e n s i v e l y i n numerous l i t e r a t u r e c o n c e r n i n g energy p o l i c y i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . S o l a r c o o k e r s , b i o g a s and improved wood s t o v e s a r e t e c h n i c a l l y and e c o n o m i c a l l y f e a s i b l e , and i n v o l v e the use of cheap, renewable, and l o c a l i s e d energy r e s o u r c e s . D e s p i t e such v i r t u e s 75 and the wide range of p o p u l a r a t t e n t i o n which the new energy s u p p l y o p t i o n s have g a i n e d i n contemporary l i t e r a t u r e , wide-s c a l e use of such t e c h n o l o g i e s has not taken p l a c e i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . As W i l k i n s o n (1984:306) p o i n t s o u t , Wh i l e t h e r e a r e numerous a t t e m p t s a t p r o v i d i n g a l t e r n a t e energy s u p p l i e s from domestic renewable s o u r c e s ..., t h e r e . i s l i t t l e e v i d e n c e t h a t such a l t e r n a t e energy s o u r c e s a r e r e p l a c i n g i m p o r t e d f u e l s ... Gi v e n t h i s s i t u a t i o n i t i s a p p r o p r i a t e t o e x p l o r e p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n s f o r t h i s l a c k of p u b l i c a c c e p t a n c e of commonly proposed new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s . 3.2 Problems And O b s t a c l e s A s s o c i a t e d W i t h P u b l i c A c ceptance Of A l t e r n a t e New Energy S u p p l y O p t i o n s One of the major s h o r t c o m i n g s of c u r r e n t r e s e a r c h c o n c e r n i n g energy o p t i o n s f o r the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i s t h a t i t i s b e i n g conducted i n environments where those most a f f e c t e d by the outcome have l i t t l e or no i n p u t . As the World Bank (1981b:15) n o t e s , Awareness of the p o t e n t i a l importance of renewable energy t e c h n o l o g y i s v e r y low Re s e a r c h , development, and d e m o n s t r a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s a r e c o n f i n e d t o l a b o r a t o r i e s , f r e q u e n t l y i n u n i v e r s i t i e s , which a r e i s o l a t e d from p o t e n t i a l u s e r s . G i v e n t h i s s i t u a t i o n , i t i s not s u r p r i s i n g t h a t much of the c u r r e n t r e s e a r c h has c o n c e n t r a t e d on the t e c h n o l o g i c a l f e a s i b i l i t y and economic v i a b i l i t y of the s e o p t i o n s . As Bach and Matthews (1979) p o i n t o u t , however, t h e r e a r e many o t h e r a s p e c t s of energy use c h o i c e s which must be examined. As Moss and Morgan (1981:175) n o t e , S o c i a l and p r e s t i g e f a c t o r s can o f t e n be as i m p o r t a n t as economic, e.g., t h e r e a r e many ca s e s of peopl e i n the T h i r d World p r e f e r r i n g an e l e c t r i c s t o v e or a 76 butane gas s t o v e d e s p i t e v e r y h i g h c o s t s because of p r e s t i g e , or i n s i s t i n g on a c o n c r e t e wood stove, i n s t e a d of a s t o v e made of c l a y because the m a t e r i a l i s more modern. Eden e t a l . (1981:365) p o i n t out t h a t , The p e r c e i v e d c o s t s and b e n e f i t s of a form of s u p p l y may d i f f e r between d i f f e r e n t consumers and d e c i s i o n makers. Thus, a government i n a non-OPEC d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y may be t r y i n g t o d i s c o u r a g e the use of o i l because of the p r e s s u r e o i l i m p o r t s impose on f o r e i g n exchange r e s o u r c e s , w h i l e many consumers w i t h i n the c o u n t r y c o n t i n u e t o f i n d o i l a t t r a c t i v e i n r e l a t i o n t o the c o s t s they i n c u r . S o c i a l c o s t s a r e d i f f i c u l t t o e s t i m a t e and can l e a d t o unexpected r e j e c t i o n of new t e c h n o l o g y and s u p p l y systems. However, w h i l e t h e s e and o t h e r r e s e a r c h e r s r e c o g n i z e t h a t user c h o i c e i s i n f l u e n c e d by s o c i a l or i n t r i n s i c f a c t o r s , t h e s e f a c t o r s a r e viewed as c o n s t r a i n t s t o the d i f f u s i o n of i n n o v a t i o n r a t h e r than as i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s t o be c o n s i d e r e d a t the i n i t i a t i o n of r e s e a r c h . A f u r t h e r d e f i c i e n c y of c u r r e n t r e s e a r c h c o n c e r n i n g energy p o l i c y o p t i o n s f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s r e l a t e s t o the l a c k of a t t e n t i o n p a i d t o the p r o c e s s of d i f f u s i o n of new energy t e c h n o l o g y . Energy o p t i o n s a r e commonly proposed and d i s c u s s e d w i t h r e f e r e n c e t o r u r a l a r e a s of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . However, i t seems u n l i k e l y t h a t d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e p r e p a r e d t o embark on r e g i o n a l energy p o l i c y p l a n n i n g when, u n t i l r e c e n t l y , most of the s e c o u n t r i e s d i d not have i n s t i t u t i o n s or p l a n s f o r a n a t i o n a l energy p o l i c y ( S m i l and Knowland, 1981). In a d d i t i o n , l i t t l e i s known about the r o l e of those members of r u r a l f a m i l i e s who work i n urban c e n t r e s and who a r e perhaps r e s p o n s i b l e f o r i n t r o d u c i n g new t e c h n o l o g i e s and i n n o v a t i o n s t o o t h e r f a m i l y members. Perhaps a wider d i f f u s i o n of energy a l t e r n a t i v e s c o u l d be r e a l i z e d t h r o u g h i n t r o d u c t i o n i n t o urban 77 c e n t r e s , from which such t e c h n o l o g y may be s p r e a d t o r u r a l a r e a s . Such a p o s s i b i l i t y i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the p a t t e r n of growth of i n n o v a t i o n s i n the a r e a s of f a s h i o n , music, dance, and s i m i l a r s o c i a l phenomena, as w e l l as of n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy t e c h n o l o g i e s such as kerosene s t o v e s . T h i s i s s u e may be e x p l o r e d t h r o u g h an e x a m i n a t i o n of the s o c i a l c o n t e x t of energy i n each d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y . I t i s a l s o n e c e s s a r y t o e x p l o r e the f a c t o r s g o v e r n i n g f u e l use c h o i c e s and p r e f e r e n c e s from the p o i n t of view of the l o c a l p e o p l e t h e m s e l v e s . I t may be found, f o r example, t h a t the o f t e n - c i t e d v i r t u e s of the new energy s u p p l y t e c h n o l o g i e s by energy e x p e r t s a r e not the ones t h a t govern the l o c a l p e o p l e ' s f u e l use c h o i c e s and p r e f e r e n c e s . I t may a l s o be found t h a t a l t h o u g h p r i c e per u n i t of energy and t e c h n o l o g i c a l f e a s i b i l i t y a r e n a t u r a l l y i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n s f o r f u e l c h o i c e s and p r e f e r e n c e s , a wide range of o t h e r s o c i a l or i n t r i n s i c f a c t o r s do e n t e r i n t o the d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s . The above c o n s i d e r a t i o n s d i c t a t e t h a t p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n or v a l u e s may be of paramount importance i n e f f o r t s t o d e t e r m i n e a l t e r n a t i v e energy p o l i c i e s t h a t can g a i n p u b l i c a c c e p t a n c e . 3.2.1 The R o l e Of P u b l i c P a r t i c i p a t i o n I f r e s e a r c h e r s ' s k i l l s and knowledge a r e t o y i e l d r e s u l t s which match the v a l u e s and p r e f e r e n c e s of the s o c i e t y a t which they a r e d i r e c t e d , i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o d e t e r m i n e the e x t e n t t o which members of t h a t s o c i e t y s h o u l d p a r t i c i p a t e i n the r e s e a r c h . The " r a t i o n a l " or s y n o p t i c model i d e n t i f i e d i n the p l a n n i n g l i t e r a t u r e by L i n d b l o m (1959), and Braybrooke and L i n d b l o m (1963) adheres t o a s t r o n g b e l i e f i n t e c h n o l o g y . 78 Modern s o c i a l t h e o r i s t s who b e l o n g t o t h i s s c h o o l of thought i n c l u d e M a r s h a l l Dimock, A r t h u r S m i t h i e s , and T i m b e r g i n . In t h e i r p o i n t of view, as e x p r e s s e d by K i l l i c k (1976:170), p o l i c y makers a r e , ... composed of p u b l i c s p i r i t e d , knowledgeable, and r o l e - o r i e n t e d p o l i t i c i a n s ; c l e a r and u n i t e d i n t h e i r o b j e c t i v e s ; c h o o s i n g those p o l i c i e s which w i l l a c h i e v e o p t i m a l r e s u l t s f o r the n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t ... The assumption i s t h a t s k i l l e d e x p e r t s a r e a b l e t o c a l c u l a t e a l l the f a c e t s of the p e o p l e ' s needs or i n t e r e s t s on a p u r e l y o b j e c t i v e r a t i o n a l b a s i s , and make the c o r r e c t d e c i s i o n s ; p o l i c y s h o u l d be based on f a c t , not p u b l i c o p i n i o n (Hyman, 1980). T h i s p e r s p e c t i v e o p e r a t e s on the b a s i s of t e c h n i c a l and economic a n a l y s i s ; c e r t a i n o t h e r i n t r i n s i c or s o c i a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s t h a t s h o u l d bear on the d e c i s i o n s a r e o v e r l o o k e d or t h e i r s i g n i f i c a n c e d i s t o r t e d . T h i s approach makes a number of arguments a g a i n s t p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n , one of which i s t h a t i t would l e a d t o i n e f f i c i e n c y . A c c o r d i n g t o Orr (1981:328), proponents of t h i s view b e l i e v e t h a t , Mass invol v e m e n t would ... overburden the machinery of government w i t h e x c e s s i v e demands. F u r t h e r , i t would lower the q u a l i t y of p u b l i c d e c i s i o n s because the masses l a c k the knowledge e s s e n t i a l f o r i n f o r m e d o p i n i o n on most i s s u e s . T h i s a u t h o r goes on t o say t h a t , [ another] argument a g a i n s t e x t e n d i n g p a r t i c i p a t i o n i s t h a t many p o l i c y i s s u e s — e s p e c i a l l y those c o n c e r n i n g t e c h n o l o g y — a r e t o o complex f o r the p u b l i c . I s s u e s i n v o l v i n g h i g h l y t e c h n i c a l t r a d e o f f s r e q u i r e the s p e c i a l i z e d knowledge of p o l i c y a n a l y s t s , s c i e n t i s t s , and t e c h n o l o g i s t s so t h a t democracy and e x p e r t i s e work a t c r o s s p u r p o s e s . (pp. 329-330). A second argument i s based on the assumption t h a t the market p r o v i d e s the means f o r e x p r e s s i n g s o c i e t a l v a l u e s and f o r e s t i m a t i n g b e n e f i t s and c o s t s of p o l i c y a c t i o n s . T h i s i n v o l v e s 79 the use of market p r i c e s or s i m u l a t e d market v a l u e s f o r the i n t a n g i b l e s or s a l i e n t f a c t o r s o r , i n the words of Copp and Levy (1982:161), " t o eschew i n the name of r a t i o n a l i t y , what seems not t o be o b j e c t i v e " . C r i t i c s of the r a t i o n a l model p o i n t out t h a t the overemphasis on s p e c i a l i z e d knowledge and s c i e n c e , which shapes t h i s a p proach, l e a d s t o the e v e n t u a l e x p u l s i o n of the non-expert c i t i z e n from the p o l i c y arena ( O r r , 1981; L i n d b l o m and B r a y b r o o k e , 1963; E t z i o n i , 1968; Dye, 1972; D a v i d o f f , 1965; Marcuse, 1964; Habermas, 1970; F o r e s t e r , 1980). Habermas (1970) sees the r a t i o n a l i t y of s c i e n c e as the " r a t i o n a l i t y of d o m i n a t i o n " which l e a d s i n e v i t a b l y t o the c o a l e s e n c e of power i n a t e c h n i c a l - a d m i n i s t r a t i v e e l i t e and t o a p e r v a s i v e t e c h n o c r a t i c i d e o l o g y d i s g u i s i n g p r a c t i c a l problems ( O r r , 1981). A f u r t h e r c r i t i c i s m of the r a t i o n a l and t e c h n i c a l l y d r i v e n approach r e l a t e s t o the " v a l u e n e u t r a l i t y " c l a i m of the a c t o r s . C r i t i c s argue t h a t , t o the c o n t r a r y , s p e c i a l i z e d a n a l y s t s a r e s t r o n g l y i n f l u e n c e d by t h e i r s e l f i n t e r e s t s . W i t h p a r t i c u l a r r e f e r e n c e t o energy r e s e a r c h f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , F r e n c h (1982:74) n o t e s t h a t , Our tendency i n e s t i m a t i n g ... v a l u e s i s t o bend them i n f a v o u r of the t e c h n o l o g i e s under r e v i e w . In the absence of l o c a l d a t a , f o r example, we t e n d t o e x t r a c t numbers from our own r e a l i t y f o r purposes of a n a l y s i s . In key i n s t a n c e s ... our numbers w i l l be s y s t e m a t i c a l l y more f a v o u r a b l e t o new t e c h n o l o g i e s than would l o c a l v a l u e s . The problem i s compounded by the f a c t t h a t the p e o p l e c a r r y i n g out such a n a l y s i s ( m a n u f a c t u r e r s , c o n s u l t a n t s , energy b u r e a u c r a t s ) o f t e n have a s t r o n g v e s t e d i n t e r e s t i n showing t h a t the systems a r e sound. T o g e t h e r , t h e s e d i s t o r t i n g f o r c e s can e a s i l y encourage us t o support systems w i t h no p r o s p e c t s f o r s u c c e s s i n the r e a l w o r l d . G i v e n such o b v i o u s l i m i t a t i o n s , s p e c i a l i s t s cannot o p t i m i z e or 80 maximize p u b l i c v a l u e s , but i n the view of H e r b e r t Simon (1965) can o n l y " s a t i s f i c e " or make the o b v i o u s and most r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e c h o i c e they c o n s i d e r most s a t i s f y i n g . In o t h e r words, w i t h o u t c l i e n t p a r t i c i p a t i o n , the a n a l y s t i s not c a p a b l e of e f f e c t i v e l y embracing a l l r e l e v a n t f a c t o r s b e a r i n g on d e c i s i o n s and making the b e s t s e l e c t i o n from p o l i c y o p t i o n a l t e r n a t i v e s . The p o l i c y chosen may be doomed t o f a i l because of the e x p e r i e n t i a l d i v i d e . Friedman (1973) views e x p e r t i s e s k i l l s which a r e a n a l y t i c a l , e m p i r i c a l , and h i s t o r i c a l as p a r t i a l and mere s y m b o l i c r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s of r e a l i t y . To be c o m p l e t e , e x p e r t i s e s k i l l s must be combined w i t h the c l i e n t ' s e x p e r i e n c e d knowledge, e x p r e s s e d v a l u e s , p r i o r i t i e s , norms, i n t i m a t e knowledge of the c o n t e x t , and f e a s i b i l i t y judgements. Orr (1981:330) agre e s t h a t "There can be no q u e s t i o n about the need f o r g r e a t e r e x p e r t i s e i n the p o l i c y - m a k i n g p r o c e s s . " We must s t r i k e and m a i n t a i n a b a l a n c e between p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n and the need f o r s p e c i a l i z e d knowledge. F u r t h e r c r i t i c i s m of the r a t i o n a l model c e n t r e s around i t s s t r o n g c o n f i d e n c e i n the market mechanism f o r the e s t i m a t i o n of c o s t s and b e n e f i t s . The b a s i c argument a g a i n s t t h i s approach i s t h a t , c o n t r a r y t o the b e l i e f t h a t the f r e e market mechanism r e g i s t e r s the p r e f e r e n c e s of the s o c i e t y , the p r e f e r e n c e s of the c i t i z e n s a r e c o n s t r a i n e d by t h e i r b udgets, which a r e i n t u r n a f u n c t i o n of the e x i s t i n g income d i s t r i b u t i o n p a t t e r n s . In o t h e r words, an i n d i v i d u a l may be engaging i n c e r t a i n p r e f e r e n c e s because of n e c e s s i t y r a t h e r than as an e x p r e s s i o n of p r e f e r e n c e . As K r u t i l l a and Haigh (1978:402) p o i n t o u t , 8 1 S u b m i t t i n g ... p l a n s t o the g e n e r a l p u b l i c f o r a p p r o v a l , where ev e r y p a r t i c i p a n t ' s view i s weighed by h i s vot e and not h i s p u r c h a s i n g power, i s e q u i v a l e n t t o h a v i n g an e x p r e s s i o n of p r e f e r e n c e s f o r r e s o u r c e s e r v i c e s u n c o n s t r a i n e d by income c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . U n l i k e those who argue a g a i n s t p u b l i c involvement i n the d e t e r m i n a t i o n of p o l i c y , s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s such as M a k h i j a n i (1981:16) a r e of the o p i n i o n t h a t , Human development r e q u i r e s an e d u c a t i o n a l system i n which segments of s o c i e t y grow t o g e t h e r , not a u n i l a t e r a l d i c t a t i o n t o the poor by the e l i t e . Ojo (1981:4) p r o v i d e s s t r o n g support f o r p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n when he p o i n t s out t h a t , Even i f academic r e s e a r c h e r s a r e unable t o respond f u l l y t o what may be d e s c r i b e d as the l o c a l e x p e c t a t i o n s of the p e o p l e , i t seems t o the a u t h o r t h a t they s h o u l d not be unaware of the s a l i e n t i s s u e s i n such e x p e c t a t i o n s . In f a c t they s h o u l d , where n e c e s s a r y , go out of t h e i r way t o i d e n t i f y t h e s e e x p e c t a t i o n s e s p e c i a l l y where they a r e b e i n g m a n i f e s t l y e x p r e s s e d . By so d o i n g they may r e f l e c t upon a fundamental problem not u s u a l l y c o n s i d e r e d by r e s e a r c h workers and p o l i c y makers i n t h i s f i e l d , namely the gap between the e x p e c t a t i o n s of the l o c a l p o p u l a t i o n and thos e of the s c h o l a r s who a r e engaged i n s t u d i e s i n t e n d e d t o c o n t r i b u t e t o the s o c i o -economic t r a n s f o r m a t i o n of a r e g i o n . Indeed, as Orr (1981:333) a s s e r t s , P a r t i c i p a t i o n ... r a i s e s the l e v e l of knowledge about p u b l i c a f f a i r s , expands the sense of community, t o p u b l i c needs. One of the arguments used by those p r o m o t i n g new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s t h a t because they a r e s m a l l s c a l e , and r e q u i r e i n p u t s of d i f f u s e raw m a t e r i a l s , the a d o p t i o n of thes e a l t e r n a t i v e s w i l l c a t a l y z e a d e c e n t r a l i z e d , e g a l i t a r i a n and p a r t i c i p a t o r y s o c i e t y . New energy r e s o u r c e t e h n o l o g y i s re g a r d e d as a l e v e r t o move s o c i e t y towards a more s u s t a i n a b l e , i f l e s s e x t r a v a g a n t l e v e l w h i l e enhancing e q u i t y and p a r t i c i p a t i o n ( O r r , 1981). I r o n i c a l l y , e x p e r i e n c e w i t h new 82 energy r e s o u r c e p o l i c y o p t i o n s shows t h a t the d e t e r m i n a t i o n and e v a l u a t i o n of commonly proposed new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s i s made w i t h o u t b e n e f i t of i n p u t from the l o c a l p e o p l e t h a t t h e s e p o l i c i e s a r e i n t e n d e d t o s e r v e . Brokensha e t a l . (1983:100) p o i n t out t h a t , U n t i l r e c e n t l y , most development o f f i c i a l s and r e s e a r c h e r s b e l i e v e d t h a t the peasant had n o t h i n g t o t e a c h and e v e r y t h i n g t o l e a r n . To a l a r g e e x t e n t , t h i s a t t i t u d e s t i l l p r e v a i l s i n many c i r c l e s ' . T h i s has been the s i t u a t i o n , whether the r e s e a r c h i s b e i n g c a r r i e d out w i t h i n or o u t s i d e of the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y . Moss and Morgan (1981:190) suggest t h a t , When we w r i t e of "Research and Development" as though they were t o be u n d e r s t o o d i n a s i n g l e d e s i g n f o r l e a r n i n g and a c t i o n , we a r e apt t o f o r g e t t h a t even a t the s u p p o s e d l y n a t i o n a l l e v e l , p r e s e n t methods and o r g a n i z a t i o n s may t e n d t o s e t t h e s e two a c t i v i t i e s a t two d i f f e r e n t s c a l e s , making the i n t e r c h a n g e of i d e a s between them d i f f i c u l t . Even though some a g e n c i e s c o r r e c t l y i n s i s t t h a t the r e s e a r c h be done w i t h i n the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y , t h a t i n i t s e l f i s not enough t o ensure t h a t r e s e a r c h e r s a r e i n t o u c h w i t h the needs of the p e o p l e . Whereas c u r r e n t r e s e a r c h tends t o f o c u s on h i s t o r i c a l or t r e n d a n a l y s i s and on o b s e r v a t i o n s r e p o r t e d w i t h o u t b e n e f i t of e x p l a n a t i o n by the p e o p l e i n v o l v e d , i n f o r m e d r e s e a r c h r e q u i r e s the use of r e s e a r c h i n s t r u m e n t s which i n v o l v e d i r e c t communication w i t h the s u b j e c t s , perhaps t h r o u g h p e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w s . Brokensha et a l . (1983:100) note t h a t , Many s t u d i e s have shown ... t h a t l o c a l p e o p l e o f t e n p o s s e s s c o n s i d e r a b l e knowledge about r e s o u r c e s and t h e i r e f f e c t i v e management and u t i l i z a t i o n . T h i s knowledge, the c u m u l a t i o n of y e a r s of e x p e r i e n c e , i s a c r u c i a l component of l o c a l f u e l systems, and t h e r e f o r e c o n s t i t u t e s an i m p o r t a n t a r e a of knowledge t h a t s h o u l d be a c q u i r e d by r e s p o n s i b l e o f f i c i a l s . D e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e commonly p e r c e i v e d as b e i n g s h o r t 8 3 of the e x p e r t i s e needed t o e v a l u a t e and e x p l o i t renewable energy r e s o u r c e s . The World Bank ( 1 9 8 0 a ) , f o r example, a s s e r t s t h a t t h e s e c o u n t r i e s need t o s e l e c t from and adapt t o t h e i r needs, t e c h n o l o g i e s t h a t a r e b e i n g d e v e l o p e d i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s . T h i s r a i s e s q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g the v a l i d i t y o f . t h e r e p o r t e d advantages put f o r t h by promoters of v a r i o u s a l t e r n a t i v e s , such as t h e i r p o t e n t i a l f o r the r e d u c t i o n of i m p o r t s , f o r i n c r e a s e d s e l f - r e l i a n c e , and f o r l o c a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n or c o n t r o l . Moss and Morgan ( 1 9 8 1 : 2 0 3 ) note t h a t , Most r e s e a r c h i n t o new forms of energy p r o d u c t i o n and use, i n c l u d i n g the development of i n t e r m e d i a t e or a p p r o p r i a t e t e c h n o l o g y , i s b e i n g done i n the i n d u s t r i a l c o u n t r i e s . Thus the development of i n t e r m e d i a t e t e c h n o l o g y , d e s p i t e the i n t e n t i o n s of those who c o n c e i v e i t as an attempt t o p r o v i d e s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y i n the T h i r d World, may c o n t i n u e the t e c h n o l o g i c a l dependence of the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s on the i n d u s t r i a l n a t i o n s , and may s t i l l f a c i l i t a t e , even a t the s m a l l - s c a l e l e v e l , t he i n t r o d u c t i o n of i n a p p r o p r i a t e d e v i c e s and t e c h n i q u e s . P a r t i c i p a t i o n of the peopl e of the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i n development of a l t e r n a t i v e t e c h n o l o g i e s i s r e s t r i c t e d t o l o c a l i z e d t e s t i n g and d e m o n s t r a t i o n of the equipment. Assuming t h a t the new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s a r e t e c h n i c a l l y and e c o n o m i c a l l y f e a s i b l e , and the advantages put f o r t h by the promoters v a l i d , t he i m p o r t a n t q u e s t i o n remains as t o whether t h e s e a r e the q u a l i t i e s or c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s which w i l l make the new t e c h n o l o g y a c c e p t a b l e t o i t s i n t e n d e d u s e r s . E x p e r i e n c e s w i t h p i l o t t e s t programs i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d suggest t h a t they a r e n o t . As the World Bank (1981a:38) r e p o r t s , S o l a r c o o k e r s have been n o t o r i o u s f a i l u r e s i n numerous t r i a l s , l a r g e l y because of the n a t u r a l r e s i s t e n c e of pe o p l e t o cook i n the open i n the heat of the day, but a l s o because of o t h e r s o c i a l and t e c h n i c a l r e a s o n s . The need f o r a t e c h n o l o g i c a l f i x t o t he problem of the i n c r e a s i n g c o s t of c o o k i n g f u e l 84 i s so p r e s s i n g t h a t t h e r e i s l i t t l e a l t e r n a t i v e but t o c o n t i n u e e f f o r t s t o d e s i g n a l o w - c o s t system and t o u n d e r s t a n d b e t t e r the o b s t a c l e s t o i t s d i f f u s i o n . To be s u c c e s s f u l , the d e s i g n must be c o m p a t i b l e w i t h l o c a l c o o k i n g p r a c t i c e s and w i t h the comfort of the cook, as c o m p a t i b l e as p o s s i b l e w i t h s o c i a l and c u l t u r a l norms ... G i v e n the f a c t t h a t the l a r g e m a j o r i t y of the c l i e n t s , or l o c a l p e o p l e , are poor and perhaps c u r r e n t l y r e l i a n t on l i m i t e d and u n s o p h i s t i c a t e d energy t e c h n o l o g i e s , r e s e a r c h e r s a r e slow t o u n d e r s t a n d the i m p o r t a n t r o l e of s o c i a l or i n t r i n s i c f a c t o r s which shape a household's c h o i c e of f u e l . The p r e v a i l i n g tendency i s t o adapt the p e o p l e t o the t e c h n o l o g y r a t h e r than d e s i g n i n g the t e c h n o l o g y t o f i t the needs, norms, and e x p e c t a t i o n s of the s o c i e t y f o r which i t i s i n t e n d e d . C u r r e n t d i f f i c u l t i e s i n a c h i e v i n g l a r g e - s c a l e a c c e p t a n c e and use of commonly proposed a l t e r n a t e energy o p t i o n s , such as s o l a r c o o k e r s and b i o g a s , d e s p i t e t h e i r a dvantages, may be a t t r i b u t e d t o t h i s l a c k of p r i o r knowledge and c o n s i d e r a t i o n of the p r e f e r e n c e s and e x p e c t a t i o n s of the s o c i e t y , or of a l l the r e l e v a n t f a c t o r s i n v o l v e d i n i t s a d o p t i o n of t r a d i t i o n a l and n o n t r a d i t i o n a l t e c h n o l o g i e s . In s t r e s s i n g t h a t the d e t e r m i n a t i o n and d e s i g n of new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s must be governed by the l o c a l p e o p l e ' s sense of need, t h i s s tudy does not i m p l y t h a t o t h e r f a c t o r s such as r e n e w a b i l i t y or e c o l o g i c a l modesty s h o u l d be i g n o r e d . R a t h e r , t h e s e i m p o r t a n t elements s h o u l d be combined w i t h those which the p e o p l e a r e s e e k i n g . PART TWO CHAPTER 4 ENERGY IN NIGERIA The r o l e of energy i n the N i g e r i a n n a t i o n a l s o c i o - e c o n o m i c system has become e s p e c i a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t i n the l a s t decade. The day-to-day f l o w of i n t e r n a t i o n a l o i l g e n e r a t e s enormous revenue and i s accompanied by remarkable changes i n the domestic energy consumption p i c t u r e , both i n k i n d and s i z e of energy demand. As Ngoka (1981:113) p o i n t s o u t , A l t h o u g h N i g e r i a has remained a r e l a t i v e l y low energy consuming c o u n t r y f o r s e v e r a l decades, the advent of the o i l revenue i s b r i n g i n g about a r a p i d change i n our l e v e l of energy consumption. The c o u n t r y ' s o i l w e a l t h has r e f l e c t e d on the e a r n i n g power of most N i g e r i a n s . The b u s i n e s s community has p r o s p e r e d , and p e o p l e i n p r i v a t e and p u b l i c employment r e c e i v e d l a r g e s a l a r y i n c r e a s e s . As a r e s u l t of t h e s e i n c r e a s e d income, [ s i c ] s e v e r a l p e o p l e a r e now i n a p o s i t i o n t o purchase energy consuming d e v i c e s such as a i r c o n d i t i o n e r s , t e l e v i s i o n s . [ s i c ] S e t s c o o k e r s , c a r s , r e f r i g e r a t o r s e t c . As s o c i a l and economic f a c t o r s g o v e r n i n g energy use p a t t e r n s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s change, energy o p t i o n s chosen by t h e i r c i t i z e n s become those used i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d . T h i s p r o c e s s i s not unique t o N i g e r i a , as n oted by Osakwe (1982:7) when he says t h a t , The change i n the p a t t e r n of energy use w i t h i n the LDCs [Less Developed C o u n t r i e s ] c l o s e l y f o l l o w s the t r e n d i n the d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . T h i s r e f l e c t s ... t o t a l dependence of the LDCs on the i m p o r t s of machinery, a p p l i a n c e s , t r a n s p o r t equipment and t e c h n i c a l e x p e r t i s e from the d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s , most of which a r e b i a s e d towards the use of p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s e i t h e r d i r e c t l y or t h r o u g h o i l - b a s e d e l e c t r i c power g e n e r a t i o n . S i m i l a r l y , Eden et a l . (1981:367-368) c o n c l u d e t h a t , 85 8 6 Most developing countries have started mechanisation of industry and agriculture, leading to major s o c i a l change - urban migration and more energy use in households and for transport, a s h i f t from non-commercial to commercial energy, a change in the fuel mix - which a l l bring about an increase in commercial energy consumption. At the same time, Nigeria represents a major o i l producing and exporting country which nevertheless often experiences s i g n i f i c a n t domestic energy shortages (Moss and Morgan, 1981; Ngoka, 1981). This chapter reviews some of the issues related to Nigeria s energy supply and use s i t u a t i o n . 4.1 Energy R e s o u r c e s , P r o d u c t i o n , And Consumption Nigeria possesses both nontraditional and t r a d i t i o n a l sources of energy. Nontraditional sources include petroleum, natural gas, coal, and hydroelectric power. T r a d i t i o n a l sources used predominantly include firewood and i t s derivative, charcoal, as well as dire c t solar radiation. 4.1.1 N o n t r a d i t i o n a l Energy i.«l«l'l Petroleum Resources P r o d u c t i o n And E x p o r t s Over half of Nigeria (about 1 m i l l i o n km2) i s covered by sedimentary basins possibly containing o i l bearing rocks. Presently, most of the r i c h crude o i l f i e l d s are concentrated in coastal regions known as the Niger delta, and i t s offshore area less than 100 km from the A t l a n t i c Ocean. The prospects of finding new o i l f i e l d s in t h i s region are s t i l l good. Quinlan (1983a:42) notes that, ... the Niger delta area i s s t i l l giving good results 87 as an e x p l o r a t i o n p r o s p e c t . There were 28 o i l d i s c o v e r i e s and f o u r gas d u r i n g 1981, a c c o r d i n g t o p e t r o c o n s u l t a n t s , w h i l e the p r e v i o u s year gave 20 o i l f i n d s and one gas; development d r i l l i n g r e s u l t e d i n a t l e a s t 104 o i l w e l l s and one gas w e l l d u r i n g 1981, a g a i n s t -91 o i l w e l l s and one gas w e l l i n 1980. However, w h i l e the o f f s h o r e N i g e r d e l t a i s r e g a r d e d as one of the most p r o l i f i c o i l p r o d u c i n g p r o s p e c t s i n the w o r l d , the o i l w e l l s a r e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y s m a l l i n s i z e ( Q u i n l a n , 1983a). Crude o i l from the N i g e r d e l t a , on the o t h e r hand, i s of h i g h q u a l i t y . The o i l i s l i g h t and has low s u l p h u r c o n t e n t , s i m i l a r t o N o r t h Sea o i l from the U n i t e d Kingdom. T h i s low s u l p h u r c o n t e n t r e p r e s e n t s a d e c i s i v e advantage i n the m a r k e t i n g of N i g e r i a n c r u d e , s i n c e the p e t r o l e u m can be b l e n d e d w i t h p e t r o l e u m used i n c o u n t r i e s which have h i g h e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n t r o l s t a n d a r d s , i n o r d e r t o reduce the s u l p h u r c o n t e n t t o the l e v e l p r e s c r i b e d by l e g i s l a t i o n . Recent e s t i m a t e s put N i g e r i a ' s u l t i m a t e l y r e c o v e r a b l e o i l r e s o u r c e s a t twenty-two b i l l i o n b a r r e l s (132 b i l l i o n G i g a j o u l e s (GJ)) (Rahmer, 1983) 1 T h i s r e p r e s e n t s 16 p e r c e n t of e s t i m a t e d u l t i m a t e l y r e c o v e r a b l e r e s o u r c e s i n A f r i c a , and 1.2 p e r c e n t of t o t a l r e c o v e r a b l e w o r l d r e s o u r c e s (Rahmer, 1983). Crude o i l r e s e r v e s of N i g e r i a have i n c r e a s e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y s i n c e commercial p r o d u c t i o n of crude o i l began i n 1958, as shown i n T a b l e 4.1. S i m i l a r l y , crude o i l p r o d u c t i o n and e x p o r t l e v e l s have undergone marked changes between the p r e - o i l boom e r a of 1974 and p r e s e n t , as shown i n T a b l e 4.2. Sharp i n c r e a s e s i n crude o i l p r o d u c t i o n a r e o f t e n the response t o e x t e r n a l demands. 1 Rahmer's a c t u a l e s t i m a t e i s 3 b i l l i o n t o nnes. T h i s has been c o n v e r t e d t o b a r r e l s of o i l and t o j o u l e s u s i n g 7.3 b a r r e l s / t o n n e and 44 g i g a j o u l e s / t o n n e as c o n v e r s i o n f a c t o r s . 88 TABLE 4.1 NIGERIAN PROVEN CRUDE OIL RESERVES  1961 - 1983 Year B i l l i o n B a r r e l s B i l l i o n G i q a i o u l e s % Chanq 1961 0.3 1 .8 — 1962 0.4 2.4 + 3.0 1963 0.5 3.0 + 3.0 1964 1 .0 6.0 +100.0 1965 3.0 18.0 +200.0 1966 3.0 18.0 — 1967 3.5 21 .0 + 17.0 1968 4.0 24.0 + 14.0 1969 5.0 30.0 + 25.0 1970 9.3 55.8 +86.0 1 971 11.7 70.2 +26.0 1972 15.0 90.0 + 28.0 1973 20.0 120.0 + 33.0 1 974 20.9 125.4 + 5.0 1975 20.2 181.8 -3.0 1976 19.5 117.0 -4.0 1 977 18.7 112.2 -4.0 1978 18.2 109.2 -3.0 1979 17.4 104.4 -4.0 1980 16.7 100.2 -4.0 1981 — — — 1982 — — — 1983 20.0 120.0 + 20.0 Sou r c e : OPEC. 1980. Annual S t a t i s t i c a l B u l l e t i n . V i e n n a . Q u i l a n . 1983a. " N i g e r i a O i l Revenue C r i s i s Deepens." P e t r o l e u m Economist. F e b r u a r y . TABLE 4.2 NIGERIA CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS 1961 - 1982 Production Exports Million Exports Production as Barrels Billions Million Million Production as % of % of proven Year Per day Gigajoules Barrels Gigajoules Change Production Reserves 1961 0.05 0.30 0.05 0.30 98% 17% 1962 0.07 0.42 0.07 0.42 +40% 100% 18% 1963 0.08 0.48 0.08 0.48 +14% 99% 16% 1964 0.12 0.72 1.12 0.72 +50% 99% 12% 1965 0.27 1.63 0.27 1.63 +125% 98% 9% 1966 0.42 2.51 0.38 2.28 +56% 90% 14% 1967 0.32 1.92 0.30 1.80 -24% 94% 9% 1968 0.14 0.85 0.14 0.85 -56% 99% 4% 1969 0.54 3.24 0.54 3.24 +286% 100% 14% 1970 1.08 6.51 1.05 6.30 +100% 97% 16% 1970 1.53 9.81 1.49 8.94 +42% 97% 13% 1972 1.76 10.54 1.75 10.50 +15% 99% 12% 1973 2.06 12.34 1.98 11.88 +17% 96% 10% 1974 2.26 13.56 2.18 13.08 +10% 96% 11% 1975 1.78 10.68 1.72 10.32 -21% 97% 6% 1976 2.07 12.01 2.01 12.06 +16% 97% 11% 1977 2.10 12.60 2.04 12.24 +1% 97% 11% 1978 1.90 11.40 1.83 10.98 -10% 96% 10% 1979 2.31 13.86 2.23 13.38 +22% 97% 13% 1980 2.06 12.36 1.90 11.40 • -11% 92% 12% 1981 1.44 8.64 1.22 7.32 -30% 85% N/A 1982 1.29 7.74 1.05 6.30 -10% 81% N/A Sources: AMU. 1982a. Nigerian national petroleum corporation guarterly magazine. October to December Quinlan. 1983a. "Nigeria o i l revenue crisis deepens." Petroleum economist. February. 90 High p r o d u c t i o n l e v e l s i n 1974 were due t o the Arab o i l embargo, which caused an i n c r e a s e d demand f o r N i g e r i a n o i l by d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s such as the U n i t e d S t a t e s , B r i t a i n , and tho s e i n Western Europe. I n c r e a s e d p r o d u c t i o n i n 1979 was the r e s u l t of the c r i s i s i n I r a n , and the d i s r u p t i o n of o i l s u p p l y t o some western i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s which r e s u l t e d . The sharp d e c l i n e i n p r o d u c t i o n l e v e l s d u r i n g 1975 was due t o economic r e c e s s i o n i n the d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s , which d e c r e a s e d the demand f o r impor t e d o i l . The d e c l i n e i n p r o d u c t i o n l e v e l s e x p e r i e n c e d c u r r e n t l y by N i g e r i a a r e due t o the g l o b a l o i l g l u t , accompanied by the downward s l i d i n g of o i l p r i c e s and the c o n t i n u a l l o s s of some of i t s t r a d i t i o n a l e x p o r t market s h a r e s t o c e r t a i n non-OPEC p r o d u c e r s such as B r i t a i n . Over n i n e t y - f i v e p e r c e n t of crude o i l produced i n N i g e r i a i s e x p o r t e d , w i t h r e c o r d e d h i g h l e v e l s of e x p o r t s t o t a l l i n g 2.2 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s (3.2 b i l l i o n GJ) f o r 1974 and a g a i n i n 1979, as shown i n T a b l e 4.2. Crude O i l E x p o r t Market The c o n c e n t r a t i o n of crude o i l f i e l d s i n c o a s t a l r e g i o n s of the c o u n t r y p r o v i d e s b o t h advantages i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l s h i p p i n g c h a r g e s and the s e c u r i t y of e x p o r t s u p p l y r o u t e s . N i g e r i a e x p o r t s o i l t o a number of c o u n t r i e s w i t h i n A m e r i c a , Europe, A s i a and A f r i c a . In the p a s t the l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of N i g e r i a n crude o i l e x p o r t s went t o Europe ( S c h a t z l , 1980). In 1976 Europe's share dropped s i g n i f i c a n t l y , w h i l e the p r o p o r t i o n of e x p o r t s t o America jumped t o about 60 p e r c e n t . Recent i n f o r -m a tion c o n c e r n i n g 1981 e x p o r t s i n d i c a t e s t h a t America i s s t i l l t h e l a r g e s t i m p o r t e r of N i g e r i a n o i l , as shown i n T a b l e 4.3. 91 TABLE 4*3 NIGERIAN CRUDE OIL EXPORTS BY DESTINATION FOR 1981 D e s t i n a t i o n T o t a l i n M i l l i o n % of B a r r e l s T o t a l American & West I n d i e s U.S.A. 150.03 33.5 A r g e n t i n a 1.15 0.3 B r a z i l 11 .83 2.6 Uraguay 5.85 1.3 Canar. I s l a n d s 5.86 1 .3 Bahamas 13.73 3.1 Curacao 14.78 3.3 Cayman I s l a n d s 6.41 1.4 V i r g i n I s l a n d s 7.45 1.7 A n t i l l e s Dutch 28.54 6.4 S u b - T o t a l 245.63 54.9 Europe N e t h e r l a n d s 52.74 11.8 Germany (West) 26.12 5.8 Sweden 9.83 2.2 France 40.29 9.0 Norway 0.48 0.1 Denmark 4.26 0.9 Y u g o s l a v i a 3.00 0.7 Romania 5.90 1 .3 U n i t e d Kingdom 1 .45 0.3 P o r t u g a l 4.80 1.1 I t a l y 21.11 4.7 Spa i n 6.62 1.5 Be l g i u m 1 .88 0.4 A u s t r i a 0.68 0.2 H o l l a n d 0.86 0.2 S u b - T o t a l 180.10 40.2 A s i a Japan 6.23 1 .4 Taiwan 3.15 0.7 S u b - T o t a l 9.38 2.0 A f r i c a S i e r r a l e o n n e 1 .65 0.4 Ghana 7.87 1 .8 I v o r y Coast 2.12 0.5 Togo 0.30 0.1 Senegal 0.77 0.2 S u b - T o t a l 12.71 2.8 GRAND TOTAL 447.82 100% S o u r c e : N i g e r i a n P e t r o l e u m C o r p o r a t i o n . 1982. Annual Summary. January - December 1981. Lagos: J e r o m e l a i h o and A s s o c i a t e s , pp. 35. 92 Domestic Consumption Of P e t r o l e u m O i l O i l R e f i n e r i e s Crude o i l t o be consumed i s f i r s t p r o c e s s e d i n t o a v a r i e t y of p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s , from which v a r i o u s f u e l t y p e s a r e s e l e c t e d t o meet a s p e c i f i c end use. P e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s used i n N i g e r i a come from r e f i n e r i e s w i t h i n the c o u n t r y , as w e l l as from r e f i n e r i e s o u t s i d e the c o u n t r y , i n accordance w i t h e x t e r n a l p e t r o l e u m p r o c e s s i n g arrangements. W i t h i n the c o u n t r y t h e r e a r e c u r r e n t l y t h r e e r e f i n e r i e s o p e r a t i n g , l o c a t e d a t P o r t H a r c o u r t , W a r r i , and Kaduna. N i g e r i a n crude o i l i s a l s o r e f i n e d i n c o u n t r i e s such as the U n i t e d S t a t e s , F r a n c e , B r a z i l , C uracoa, A n t i l l e s ( D u t c h ) , N e t h e r l a n d s , and Bahamas, from where some of i t i s s u b s e q u e n t l y i m p o r t e d by N i g e r i a . Consumption Of P e t r o l e u m Energy: Some Major P o l i c y I s s u e s V a r i o u s s o u r c e s i n d i c a t e growth i n N i g e r i a n domestic consumption of p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s (see T a b l e 4.4). T h i s t r e n d i s e x p e c t e d t o c o n t i n u e . Osakwe (1982:9) e s t i m a t e s t h a t , From e v e r y i n d i c a t i o n , i t would appear t h a t by the year 2000, the N i g e r i a n Economy w i l l be consuming c l o s e t o Two M i l l i o n b a r r e l s of Crude O i l per day. That i s about as much as would be produced a t p r e s e n t but f o r the s o - c a l l e d o i l " g l u t " . I f by 2000, the Economy s t i l l depends on p e t r o - d o l l a r s t o the e x t e n i t h a t i t does a t p r e s e n t , then i t w i l l mean a p r o d u c i i o n of FOUR m i l l i o n BPD. I t i s d o u b t f u l whether the r e s e r v e s a t t h a t p o i n t can s u s t a i n t h i s l e v e l of p r o d u c t i o n (even a t Secondary Recovery O p e r a t i o n s ) f o r any s i g n i f i c a n t l e n g t h of t i m e . To s o l v e t h i s problem, w r i t e r s such as Ngoka (1981:114) suggest the need f o r a m e a n i n g f u l c o n s e r v a t i o n p o l i c y t o be adopted by the government, and suggest t h a t , ... the government s h o u l d c o n t r o l or reduce the p r e s e n t r a t e of o i l p r o d u c t i o n . A programmed r e d u c t i o n of about T A B L E 4 . 4 DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION OF PETROLEUM ENERGY PRODUCTS IN NIGERIA 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 UNIT Million MJ. Million MJ. Million MJ. Million MJ. Million MJ. Million MJ. Million Liquefied Petroleum Gas % Change Thousand Litres 69.2 3 .1 15.5 0.7 -78 X 11.4 0.5 -26.5% 57.5 2.6 +404% 31.5 1.4 -45% 46.8 2.1 +49% 49.8 2.3 +6.4% Avation Spiric % Change Million Litres 21.8 765.2 13 .9 487.9 • -36.25! 9.2 322.9 -33.8% 8.5 298.4 -7.61% 9.5 333.5 +11.8% 7.2 252.7 -24.2% 6.2 217.f -13.9% Motor Spirit: 5 Star Z Change Million Litres 41.9 1470.7 352.8 1238J.3 +806% 80.1 2811.5 -77% 38.0 1333.8 -51% Premium % Change Million Litres 1904.9 66862.0 1647 .1 57813 .2 -13.5% 2222.8 78020.3 +35% 2807.0 98525.7 +26.3% 2999.2 105271.9 +6.S% 3860.7 135510.5 +28.7% 4794.3 16828.0 +24.2% Regular % Change Million Litres 658.7 23120.4 359.7 12625.5 -45.4% 355.5 12478.1 -1.2% 342.5 12021.8 -3.7% 22.0 772.2 -93.8% Dual Purpose Kerosene: •Household X Change Million Litres 743.4 26093.3 539.8 18947.0 -27.4% 685.7 24068.1 +27.0% 827.9 29059.3 +20.7% 880.0 30888.0 +6.3% 1036.6 36384.7 +17.8% 1236.3 43394.1 +19.3% •Aviation Turbines X Change Million Litres 389.8 13682.0 314.0 11031.9 -19.4% 343.8 12067 .4 +9.4% 380.9 13369.6 +10.8% 379.9 13334 .5 -0.3% 443.9 15580.9 -16.9% 526.2 18469.6 -18.5% T A B L E . 4 . 4 c o n t i n u e d D O M E S T I C C O N S U M P T I O N O F P E T R O L E U M E N E R G Y P R O D U C T S I N N I G E R I A Automotive Caa O i l : •Cao O i l Z Change M i l l i o n L i t r e s 1616.4 62554.7 1039.5 40228.7 -35.7Z 1066.7 41281.3 +2.6Z 1319.7 51072.4 +23.7X 252.7 48479.5 - 5 . I X 1537.4 59497.4 +22.7X 2125.6 82647.7 +38.9Z Dleeel O i l X Change M i l l i o n L i t r e s 40.3 1559.6 201.8 7809.7 +400.7Z 604.9 23409.5 +199.8Z 808.0 31269.6 -33.6Z 73B.O 26560.6 -8.7X 762.1 29493.3 -3.JX 500.0 19350.0 -34.4X Fuel O i l : High Pour X Change M i l l i o n L i t r e s 347.7 14325.2 207 .4 8544 .9 -40.4Z 283.5 11680.2 -21.9Z 285.9 11779.1 +0.9Z 321.6 13249.9 12.5X 255.8 10539.0 -20.5X 245.6 10118.7 - 4 . 0 1 Low Pout Z Change M i l l i o n L i t r e s 517.6 21325.1 464.1 19120.9 -10.31 381.0 15697.2 -17.9Z 506.4 20863.7 +32.9Z 388.7 16014.4 -23.2X 572.7 23595.2 +47.3X 736.9 30360.3 +29.2X To ta l l n B i l l i o n MJ Z Change 230.3 230.1 - .1Z 219.0 -4.8Z 268.3 +22.5Z 162.3 -39.5X 188.9 +16.4Z 221 .4 -17.20Z SOURCES: Federal o f f i c e of S t a t i s t i c s . 1981. Annual abs t rac t of s t a t i s t i c * . Lagos: Federal o f f i c e of S t a t i s t i c s p r i n t i n g u n i t , p. 84. Niger ian Nat ional Petroleum C o r p o r a t i o n . 1981 Annual smmary. January - December 1981 . Logas: Jeromellano and Assoc ia tes , pp . 44 - 45. Energy content of petroleum products were ca l cu la ted by m u l t i p l y i n g l i q u e f i e d petroleum gas by 4 5 . 2 . premlun 3 5 . 1 , A v i a t i o n gaa by 3 5 . 1 , Regular gaso l i ne by 3 5 . 1 , premium gasol ine by 34.4, Auto d lese l by 38.6 and Fuel o i l by 41 .2 . The energy content conversion f i gu res were taken from Energy  conservat ion l n Kenya's Modern Sector: Progress,  p o t e n t i a l and problems. I.ee Schlpper. Jack Ho l lander , Hathew MilukaR, Joseph Alruma, Stephen Meyers w i t h Scott A. M o l l , Joy IHinkur ley, John Jankowskl, (au tho rs ) . Washington D . C : Resources fo r the Fu tu re . 1982. p. 75. 95 50% of our p r e s e n t p r o d u c t i o n r a t e w i t h i n the next t e n y e a r s w i l l o b v i o u s l y be a hedge a g a i n s t f u t u r e economic d i f f i c u l t i e s i n the c o u n t r y . I t may be argued t h a t the development of a l t e r n a t i v e energy s o u r c e s may reduce the economic importance of o i l . A l t h o u g h the p o s s i b i l i t y of t h i s happening may not be r u l e d out c o m p l e t e l y i t i s however v e r y u n l i k e l y t h a t our f u t u r e g e n e r a t i o n w i l l not f i n d more e f f i c i e n t ways of u t i l i z i n g o i l more e c o n o m i c a l l y than most a l t e r n a t i v e energy s o u r c e s . W h i l e the importance of p r o p o s a l s such as t h i s cannot be u n d e r e s t i m a t e d , they appear t o be more i d e a l than p r a c t i c a l . S c h a t z l (1980:4) sums up the dilemma f a c i n g the c o u n t r y when he s t a t e s t h a t , As f a r as the f u t u r e u t i l i z a t i o n of crude o i l r e s o u r c e s i s c o n c e r n e d , the economic p o l i c y of the N i g e r i a n Government i s i n v o l v e d i n a c o n f l i c t of aims. On the one hand the e x p o r t of crude o i l c o u l d c r e a t e the c o n d i t i o n s f o r s e l f - s u s t a i n e d economic growth; on the o t h e r hand enough energy r e s o u r c e s c o u l d be p r e s e r v e d t o s a t i s f y i n the l o n g - r u n the r a p i d l y growing domestic demand f o r energy. Marinho (1978:142) c o n c u r s w i t h t h i s assessment when he says t h a t , Energy r e s o u r c e s [to the N i g e r i a n government] a r e not o n l y d i r e c t l y r e q u i r e d as i n p u t s t o f u e l and s e r v i c e the economy, they a r e i n f a c t the s o l e means of e a r n i n g f o r e i g n exchange w i t h which they f i n a n c e development. U n l i k e i n most i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s where p r i m a r y energy r e s o u r c e s a r e d e v e l o p e d and u t i l i z e d as i n p u t s f o r i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n and domestic consumption a l o n e , energy r e s o u r c e s ... [ i n N i g e r i a ] r e p r e s e n t both a means and an end of p r o d u c t i o n . W h i l e t h e s e a u t h o r s i d e n t i f y the problems t o be r e s o l v e d i f N i g e r i a i s t o implement c o n s e r v a t i o n p o l i c i e s aimed a t reduced p e t r o l e u m e x p l o i t a t i o n , they a l s o p o i n t t o the l a c k of f o r e s i g h t i n p a s t a d m i n i s t r a t i o n of the c o u n t r y ' s r e s o u r c e s ; the economy was t a i l o r e d t o overdependence on p e t r o d o l l a r s , and t r a d i t i o n a l n o n - o i l e x p o r t s were reduced t o a mere t r i c k l e . G i v e n t h i s s i t u a t i o n , i t seems o b v i o u s t h a t N i g e r i a cannot s u b s t a n t i a l l y 96 reduce o i l e x p o r t s w i t h o u t a d i v e r s i f i e d economy n e c e s s a r y f o r the g e n e r a t i o n of f o r e i g n exchange which i s e s s e n t i a l f o r the purchase of the t e c h n o l o g i e s r e q u i r e d f o r the f u n c t i o n i n g of the c o u n t r y ' s s o c i o - e c o n o m i c system. In the meantime, o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r more e f f i c i e n t use of p e t r o l e u m energy w i t h i n the c o u n t r y must be e x p l o r e d . T h i s , i n t u r n , depends on the a v a i l a b i l i t y of i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g e x i s t i n g p a t t e r n s of p e t r o l e u m energy use by v a r i o u s s e c t o r s of the economy. S e c t o r a l Use Of P e t r o l e u m Enerqy About e i g h t y p e r c e n t of a l l p e t r o l e u m energy consumed i n the c o u n t r y i s a c c o u n t e d f o r by the major p e t r o l e u m energy end u s e r s , namely the i n d u s t r y and c o n s t r u c t i o n s e c t o r , the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r , h o u s e h o l d s , and the a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r . Of t h e s e , the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r a c c o u n t s f o r the l a r g e s t share of t o t a l f i n a l p e t r o l e u m energy consumption, as shown i n T a b l e 4.5. With the e x c e p t i o n of the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r , no s e c t o r showed apparent growth i n the r e l a t i v e s i z e of i t s share of t o t a l f i n a l p e t r o l e u m energy consumption from 1977 t o 1980. T h i s demonstrates the d i f f i c u l t y of f i n d i n g s u b s t i t u t e s f o r o i l i n the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r , p a r t i c u l a r l y r o ad t r a n s p o r t which a c c o u n t s f o r over 95 p e r c e n t of t o t a l consumption by t h i s s e c t o r , and 44 t o 50 p e r c e n t f o r a l l s e c t o r s combined ( U n i t e d N a t i o n s , 1983b). The i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r t o g e t h e r account f o r about 88 p e r c e n t of t o t a l p e t r o l e u m consumption i n N i g e r i a . As an added burden, i t w i l l become i n c r e a s i n g l y d i f f i c u l t t o r e t a i n n o n i n d i g e n o u s o i l companies i n N i g e r i a , as t h e i r 9 . 7 TABLE 4.S NIGERIAN SECTORAL CONSUMPTION DF PETROLEUM ENERGY IN HILLION GIGA3QULES. 1 977 1 97B 1 979 19B0 Gro s s T o t a l Energy Con-sumption * or Gross T o t a l G r o s s T o t a l Energy Con-sumption * or Gross T o t a l G r o s s T o t a l Eriergy Con-sumption * or G r o s s T o t a l Gross T o t a l Energy Con-sumption * or Gro s s T o t a l G r o s s Energy Consumption . 325.60 -- 390.17 -- 139.73 -- 563.77 --X Chanqe. - - 20* + 1 3* + 28* R e f i n e r y L o s s e s i -115.01 35. 3* -1 30.35 33.38 -178.98 10.7* -208.01 17. 5* % Change -- -- + 1 9* -- 22* -- + 50* --E l e c t r i c P l a n t L o s s e s . -1.18 0.1* -2. 35 0.6* -3.53 0.8* -6.72 1.2* _ % C11 n n g e - - -- + 99* -- + 50* -- + 90* --Energy S e c t o r -Use -11.62 3.6* -1 2.87 3.3* -16.60 3.0* -21.90 1 . 1 * % Change -- + 11* + 29* + 50* TOTAL FINAL Energy Con-sumption 197.79 60.BK 211.90 62.7* 210.62 5 1.7* 261.1 1 16.9* % Change - - - - + 21* -- -2* -- + 10* --F i n a l E nergy Consumption Oy S e c t o r . T o t a l F i n a l Eriergy Con-sumption X of T o t a l T o t a l F i n a l E n ergy Con-sumption * or T o t a l T o t a l F i n a l Energy Con-sumption * or T o t a l T o t a l F i n a l Energy Con-sumpt i o n * or T o t a l I n d u s t r y and Cons t r u e t I o n : 86.01 13.5* 110.B8 15.3* 102.38 12.6* 1 01. 3.1 39.5* % Change. -- + 29* + B* + 2* T r a n s p o r t o t l o n : Road. B7.38 11.2* 107.16 13.9* 113.79 17.3* 133.09 SO.ft* % Change -- -- + 23* -- + 6* -- + 1 7* --.Pal 1 0.B5 0.1* 1 .06 0 . 1 * 1 .06 o.oiX 1 .06 0.1* H Change . A i r 3.07 1 .6* + 25* 3. 20 1.3* 3.20 1.3* 3.21 1.2* % Change . Fla r 1 ne 0.13 0.2* + 1* 0.13 0.2* 0.13 0.2* + 1* 0.13 0.2* % Change TOTAL 91 .73 16.1* 112.15 15.8* 118.18 19.2* 137.82 52.2* % Change + 22* + 6* -- + 16* --H o u s e h o l d s 10.75 9.5* 20.10 B.3X 18.20 7.6* 20.19 7.8* X Chanqe + 9* -10* -- + 12* --A g r I c u l t u r e 1 .28 0.7* 1 .19 0.6* 1 .19 0.6* 1 . 1 9 0.6* X Chanqe - - -- + 16* -- -- -- - - --Source: D e r i v e d from: U n i t e d N a t i o n s : 1983a. Energy b a l a n c e s , 1977-1980 and E l e c t r i c i t y p r o f i l e  1975-1981 f o r Se1ected Develop ing Countr i e s and Area . New York: U n i t e d N a t i o n s pp. 1*6-153. 98 p r o f i t margins a r e eroded by i n f l a t i o n and the accompanying p r o d u c t i o n c o s t i n c r e a s e s . Q u i n l a n (1983a:41-42) no t e s t h a t , For the o i l companies w i t h e q u i t y i n t e r e s t s i n N i g e r i a , the low p r o d u c t i o n r a t e s of the p a s t two y e a r s have brought d i m i n i s h e d t o t a l r e t u r n s w h i l e c o s t s - e x p l o r a t i o n , f i n a n c i n g c h a r g e s , maintenance and s a l a r i e s - have r i s e n . O i l p l a y s a c r u c i a l r o l e i n the w e l l - b e i n g of N i g e r i a and ways must be sought t o extend the l i f e span of t h i s r e s o u r c e , both f o r e x p o r t and f o r some s p e c i f i c end uses such as p e t r o c h e m i c a l s and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f u e l , f o r which t h e r e a r e c u r r e n t l y no s u b s t i t u t e s . Where f e a s i b l e , economic use of the c o u n t r y ' s v a s t n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s must be made i n p l a c e of p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s . 4.1.1.2 N a t u r a l Gas R e sources And R e s e r v e s N a t u r a l gas has been found i n N i g e r i a i n commercial q u a n t i t i e s , e i t h e r a l o n e or i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h crude o i l . Amu (1982b:8) n o t e s , In N i g e r i a , n a t u r a l gas d i s c o v e r y was i n c i d e n t a l t o o i l e x p l o r a t i o n as no d e l i b e r a t e s e a r c h f o r gas has y e t been embarked upon by o i l p r o s p e c t i n g companies. S i n c e most n a t u r a l gas i n N i g e r i a i s produced i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h crude o i l , the growth i n proven r e s e r v e s of n a t u r a l gas f o l l o w s the p a t t e r n of proven or r e c o v e r a b l e crude o i l r e s e r v e s . T a b l e 4.6 shows proven n a t u r a l gas r e s e r v e s i n N i g e r i a . As i s the case f o r crude o i l , the c o u n t r y ' s l a r g e s t q u a n t i t i e s of n a t u r a l gas proven r e s e r v e s o c c u r r e d around the 1974 o i l p r o d u c t i o n boom. Recent d a t a , however, i n d i c a t e t h a t t o t a l n a t u r a l gas r e s e r v e s have i n c r e a s e d by about 48 p e r c e n t between 9 9 TABLE 4.6 NIGERIA'S NATURAL GAS PROVEN RESERVES 1 i n B i l l i o n C u b i c M e t r e s and B i l l i o n G i g a j o u l e s 1971 - 1983 Year B i l l i o n C u b i c B i l l i o n P e r c e n t a g e Metres G i g a j o u l e s Change 1971 909.1 34.7 — 1972 909.1 34.7 — 1973 909.1 34.7 — 1974 1022.7 39.1 + 15 % 1975 1006.8 38.5 2 % 1976 1000.0 38.2 1 % 1977 977.3 37.3 2 % 1978 1220.0 46.6 - 25 % 1979 940.9 35.9 - 23 % 1980 931 .8 35.6 1 % 1981 — — — 1982 — — — 1983 1385.0 52.9 + 48 % 1 E x l u d e s p r o b a b l e and p o s s i b l e r e s e r v e s . S o u r c e s : Amu, L. 1982b. " N i g e r i a n s O i l I n d u s t r y - A Review" NAPETCOR. J u l y - September. p. 8. Hough, G. Vernon. 1983. " N a t u r a l Gas Reserves Keep Ahead Of P r o d u c t i o n " . P e t r o l e u m Economist. August, p. 295. 100 1980 and 1983, compared t o an i n c r e a s e of 20 p e r c e n t f o r crude o i l over t h i s p e r i o d (Amu, 1982a; Hough, 1983a; Q u i n l a n , 1983a; OPEC, 1980). C u r r e n t e s t i m a t e s of N i g e r i a n n a t u r a l gas r e s e r v e s a r e s u b s t a n t i a l . E s t i m a t e s of u l t i m a t e l y r e c o v e r a b l e known n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s i n the c o u n t r y a r e even g r e a t e r , r e p r e s e n t i n g about 81 t o 126 p e r c e n t of N i g e r i a ' s c u r r e n t proven c o n v e n t i o n a l crude o i l r e s e r v e s . N a t u r a l Gas P r o d u c t i o n N a t u r a l gas i s commonly produced i n N i g e r i a i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h crude o i l , and has a h i g h g a s / o i l r a t i o , a v e r a g i n g r o u g h l y 26M 3 of gas per b a r r e l of o i l . P r o d u c t i o n p a t t e r n s f o r n a t u r a l gas i n N i g e r i a are i l l u s t r a t e d i n T a b l e 4.7, which r e v e a l s a p a t t e r n s i m i l a r t o t h a t of crude o i l p r o d u c t i o n , r e a c h i n g h i g h p o i n t s i n 1974 and 1979, f o l l o w e d by s u b s t a n t i a l d e c l i n e s . Most of the n a t u r a l gas produced i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h crude o i l i s w a s t e f u l l y f l a r e d . Such waste i s a t t r i b u t e d t o the l a c k of e x p o r t markets and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s r e q u i r e d t o s u p p l y gas t o m e t r o p o l i t a n h ouseholds and t o i n d u s t r i e s l o c a t e d away from the o i l f i e l d s ( S c h a t z l , 1980; Moss and Morgan, 1981; Amu, 1982a). Recent e s t i m a t e s put l o s s e s a t about 60 m i l l i o n M 3 (1.7 m i l l i o n G J ) , or 400,000 b a r r e l s of crude o i l e q u i v a l e n t per day (Osakwe, 1982; Amu, 1982a). Due t o the r e l a t i v e l y low r a t e of o i l output i n r e c e n t y e a r s , n a t u r a l gas p r o d u c t i o n has f a l l e n s u b s t a n t i a l l y . N e v e r t h e l e s s , 88 p e r c e n t of the n a t u r a l gas produced i s s t i l l f l a r e d . TABLE 4.7 NIGERIA'S NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION, IN MILLION M 3 Year Gross P r o d u c t i o n % Change F l a r i n g F l a r i n g As % of Gross P r o d u c t i o n 1971 12,980 — 12,796 98.6% 1972 17,122 +31.9% 16,849 98.4% 1973 20,561 +20.1% 20,258 98.5% 1974 26,625 +29.5% - 26,219 98.5% 1975 18,955 -28.8% 18,553 97.9% 1976 22,101 +16.6% 21,469 97.1% 1977 21 ,445 - 3.0% 20,945 97.7% 1978 20,428 - 4.8% 20,048 98.1% 1979 30,049 +47.1% 28,671 95.4% 1980 24,552 -18.3% 23,482 95.6% 1981 17,113 -30.3% 14,759 86.2% 1982 12,050 -29.6% 11,000 91.3% 1983 15,500 +28.6% 13,000 83. 9% So u r c e s : Amu, L. 1982. N i g e r i a n ' s O i l I n d u s t r y - A Review. NAPETCOR. Lagos: J e r o m e l a i h o and A s s o c i a t e s , p. 8, J u l y - September. Q u i n l a n , M. 1983. Economy S t i l l Under P r e s s u r e . P e t r o l e u m Economist. p. 302, August. Q u i n l a n , M. 1984. O i l P o l i c y Under The G e n e r a l s . P e t r o l e u m Economist. p. 57, F e b r u a r y . 102 P o l i c i e s Aimed At R educing The F l a r i n g Of N a t u r a l Gas The government of N i g e r i a has been t a k i n g some s t e p s t o c u r b n a t u r a l gas f l a r i n g . One such a c t i o n has been the p a s s i n g of the " A s s o c i a t e d Gas R e i n j e c t i o n A c t " of 1979. T h i s a c t r e q u i r e d e v e r y o i l p r o d u c i n g company i n N i g e r i a t o submit t o the Commissioner f o r P e t r o l e u m a d e t a i l e d programme, by no l a t e r than October 1 s t , 1980, f o r : 1) the u t i l i z a t i o n of a l l a s s o c i a t e d gas produced from a f i e l d or group of f i e l d s ; or 2) a p r o j e c t or p r o j e c t s t o r e i n j e c t a l l gas produced i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h o i l but not u t i l i s e d i n an i n d u s t r i a l p r o j e c t (Amu, 1982a). The Act f u r t h e r p r o h i b i t s gas f l a r i n g a f t e r A p r i l 1 s t , 1984. Compliance w i t h t h i s A c t r a i s e s a number of problems. For example, most o i l companies r e p l i e d t h a t they would w i l l i n g l y make the gas a v a i l a b l e t o the government i f t h e r e were p i p e l i n e s t o t a k e i t ( Q u i n l a n , 1983b). However, i n view of the d