@prefix vivo: . @prefix edm: . @prefix ns0: . @prefix dcterms: . @prefix skos: . vivo:departmentOrSchool "Applied Science, Faculty of"@en, "Community and Regional Planning (SCARP), School of"@en ; edm:dataProvider "DSpace"@en ; ns0:degreeCampus "UBCV"@en ; dcterms:creator "Onyebuchi, Edward Ifeanyi"@en ; dcterms:issued "2010-08-07T14:24:51Z"@en, "1986"@en ; vivo:relatedDegree "Doctor of Philosophy - PhD"@en ; ns0:degreeGrantor "University of British Columbia"@en ; dcterms:description """The main purpose of this study is to identify factors governing Nigerian households' fuel choices and preferences, and to explore the degree to which commonly proposed new energy technologies satisfy these needs and preferences. The primary research problem is that new energy technologies proposed for domestic use in Nigeria and other developing countries have proved to be unacceptable to households, despite the often cited virtues of alternatives such as biogas, solar cookers, and improved wood stoves. The need for this study is first demonstrated through a review of literature concerning energy in the developing world in general, and Nigeria in particular. The literature reveals that Nigeria's energy problems mirror those of other developing countries, including potential reliance on nontraditional, nonrenewable energy sources which are petroleum based, accompanied by rapid depletion of traditional sources of energy such as firewood, and the problem of identifying and assessing new energy supply technologies which will gain wide spread public acceptance. The research methods are case studies in both rural and urban settings within Nigeria. The instruments used for data collection are interview questionnaires, accompanied by direct observations. Samples of eighty households have been surveyed from each of an urban centre, a rural town, and a village setting in both northern and southeastern Nigeria, with a total of 480 households being surveyed. The data obtained is presented in three steps. First, factors governing current choices of fuel types used on a frequent basis by households for domestic purposes are analyzed, and a comparative assessment is made of the degree to which these factors are incorporated into the designs of commonly proposed new energy supply technologies. Evidence shows that although a household's choice of a particular fuel is naturally influenced by economic factors, the price per unit of energy is not the sole basis of choice. A wide range of intrinsic qualities determine a fuel's desirability. The study shows that safety, reliability of supply, convenience, versatility and cleanliness are variables which are weighed when selecting a fuel type from among the wide array of available sources of energy. The failure to adequately incorporate these qualities into commonly proposed new energy technologies such as solar cookers and biogas, has resulted in promotion of alternate energy supply systems which do not match the needs and preferences of intended users. Although the commonly proposed new energy technologies are based on renewable sources of energy which have the potential to provide sustainable, environmentally safe, and decentralized supply systems involving cheap and versatile fuels, these are not the qualities on which households in Nigeria base their fuel use choices and preferences. The second step involves identification of fuel types most preferred by households for use in domestic chores, and the reasons for such choices. Almost all households surveyed prefer nontraditional fuels such as electricity and kerosene, despite the availability of cheap traditional sources of fuel. Of particular interest is the finding that although village households rely on unsophisticated traditional energy technologies, their attitudes toward nontraditional fuels such as kerosene and electricity are not different from those of households in urban centres and rural towns. Practical considerations such as the availability of a given fuel type govern their current fuel use practices more than do tradition, culture and preference. The third step is analysis of the relationships of household size, residential locations, and income levels to consumption of traditional and nontraditional fuel types. A multiple regression model is employed, and the implications of the findings discussed. Urban growth, accompanied by rising income levels leads to increasing dependence on nontraditional fuels by households for domestic purposes. One cause is the expansion of domestic energy demands such as refrigeration, entertainment and air conditioning, which cannot be satisfied by traditional fuels in their present form. A second cause is that urbanization is accompanied by the provision of nontraditional energy supply systems and the sale of appliances which require the use of such systems. Urbanization is an important aspect of regional development policies in Nigeria, but while regional planners seek to transform villages into thriving urban centres with energy supply systems based on finite hydrocarbon resources, energy planners propose new energy alternatives involving simple technologies for use in rural settings. This finding suggests that new energy supply policies should be made an integral part of national development policies. These research findings suggest that a need-driven approach to the problem of finding acceptable energy supply alternatives is needed to replace the currently employed technology-driven approach."""@en ; edm:aggregatedCHO "https://circle.library.ubc.ca/rest/handle/2429/27177?expand=metadata"@en ; skos:note "POLICY OPTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPING WORLD'S DOMESTIC ENERGY SUPPLY - PATTERNS AND PREFERENCES IN THE NIGERIAN DOMESTIC SECTOR by EDWARD IFEANYI ONYEBUCHI B.M.A., The U n i v e r s i t y of L e t h b r i d g e , 1978 M.N.R.M., The U n i v e r s i t y of M a n i t o b a , 1980 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Sc h o o l of Community and R e g i o n a l P l a n n i n g We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g t o the e n q u i r e d s t a n d a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA OCTOBER, 1986 ©Edward I f e a n y i Onyebuchi, 1986 In presenting t h i s thesis i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the Library s h a l l make i t f r e e l y available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of t h i s thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of my department or by his or her representatives. I t i s understood that copying or publication of t h i s thesis for f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be allowed without my written permission. Department of COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL PLANNTNO The University of B r i t i s h Columbia 1956 Main Mall Vancouver, Canada V6T 1Y3 Date October 6. 1986 /8-n ABSTRACT The main purpose of t h i s s tudy i s t o i d e n t i f y f a c t o r s g o v e r n i n g N i g e r i a n h o u s e h o l d s ' f u e l c h o i c e s and p r e f e r e n c e s , and t o e x p l o r e the degree t o which commonly proposed new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s s a t i s f y t h e s e needs and p r e f e r e n c e s . The p r i m a r y r e s e a r c h problem i s t h a t new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s proposed f o r domestic use i n N i g e r i a and o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s have proved t o be u n a c c e p t a b l e t o h o u s e h o l d s , d e s p i t e the o f t e n c i t e d v i r t u e s of a l t e r n a t i v e s such as b i o g a s , s o l a r c o o k e r s , and improved wood s t o v e s . The need f o r t h i s study i s f i r s t demonstrated t h r o u g h a r e v i e w of l i t e r a t u r e c o n c e r n i n g energy i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i n g e n e r a l , and N i g e r i a i n p a r t i c u l a r . The l i t e r a t u r e r e v e a l s t h a t N i g e r i a ' s energy problems m i r r o r t h o s e of o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , i n c l u d i n g p o t e n t i a l r e l i a n c e on n o n t r a d i t i o n a l , nonrenewable energy s o u r c e s which a r e p e t r o l e u m based, accompanied by r a p i d d e p l e t i o n of t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of energy such as f i r e w o o d , and the problem of i d e n t i f y i n g and a s s e s s i n g new energy s u p p l y t e c h n o l o g i e s which w i l l g a i n wide s p r e a d p u b l i c a c c e p t a n c e . The r e s e a r c h methods a r e case s t u d i e s i n both r u r a l and urban s e t t i n g s w i t h i n N i g e r i a . The i n s t r u m e n t s used f o r d a t a c o l l e c t i o n a r e i n t e r v i e w q u e s t i o n n a i r e s , accompanied by d i r e c t o b s e r v a t i o n s . Samples of e i g h t y h ouseholds have been s u r v e y e d from each of an urban c e n t r e , a r u r a l town, and a v i l l a g e s e t t i n g i n both n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n N i g e r i a , w i t h a t o t a l of 480 households b e i n g s u r v e y e d . i i The d a t a o b t a i n e d i s p r e s e n t e d i n t h r e e s t e p s . F i r s t , f a c t o r s g o v e r n i n g c u r r e n t c h o i c e s of f u e l t y p e s used on a f r e q u e n t b a s i s by households f o r domesti c purposes a r e a n a l y z e d , and a c o m p a r a t i v e assessment i s made of the degree t o which t h e s e f a c t o r s a r e i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o the d e s i g n s of commonly proposed new energy s u p p l y t e c h n o l o g i e s . E v i d e n c e shows t h a t a l t h o u g h a hou s e h o l d ' s c h o i c e of a p a r t i c u l a r f u e l i s n a t u r a l l y i n f l u e n c e d by economic f a c t o r s , the p r i c e per u n i t of energy i s not the s o l e b a s i s of c h o i c e . A wide range of i n t r i n s i c q u a l i t i e s d e t e r m i n e a f u e l ' s d e s i r a b i l i t y . The study shows t h a t s a f e t y , r e l i a b i l i t y of s u p p l y , c o n v e n i e n c e , v e r s a t i l i t y and c l e a n l i n e s s a r e v a r i a b l e s which a r e weighed when s e l e c t i n g a f u e l t y pe from among the wide a r r a y of a v a i l a b l e s o u r c e s of energy. The f a i l u r e t o a d e q u a t e l y i n c o r p o r a t e t h e s e q u a l i t i e s i n t o commonly proposed new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s such as s o l a r c o o k e r s and b i o g a s , has r e s u l t e d i n promotion of a l t e r n a t e energy s u p p l y systems which do not match the needs and p r e f e r e n c e s of i n t e n d e d u s e r s . A l t h o u g h the commonly proposed new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s a r e based on renewable s o u r c e s of energy which have the p o t e n t i a l t o p r o v i d e s u s t a i n a b l e , e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y s a f e , and d e c e n t r a l i z e d s u p p l y systems i n v o l v i n g cheap and v e r s a t i l e f u e l s , t h e s e a r e not the q u a l i t i e s on which h o u s e h o l d s i n N i g e r i a base t h e i r f u e l use c h o i c e s and p r e f e r e n c e s . The second s t e p i n v o l v e s i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of f u e l t y p e s most p r e f e r r e d by hou s e h o l d s f o r use i n domestic c h o r e s , and the reasons f o r such c h o i c e s . Almost a l l households s u r v e y e d p r e f e r n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s such as e l e c t r i c i t y and kerosene, d e s p i t e the a v a i l a b i l i t y of cheap t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of f u e l . Of i i i p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t i s the f i n d i n g t h a t a l t h o u g h v i l l a g e h o u seholds r e l y on u n s o p h i s t i c a t e d t r a d i t i o n a l energy t e c h n o l o g i e s , t h e i r a t t i t u d e s toward n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s such as kerosene and e l e c t r i c i t y a r e not d i f f e r e n t from t h o s e of households i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns. P r a c t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s such as the a v a i l a b i l i t y of a g i v e n f u e l type govern t h e i r c u r r e n t f u e l use p r a c t i c e s more than do t r a d i t i o n , c u l t u r e and p r e f e r e n c e . The t h i r d s t e p i s a n a l y s i s of the r e l a t i o n s h i p s of ho u s e h o l d s i z e , r e s i d e n t i a l l o c a t i o n s , and income l e v e l s t o consumption of t r a d i t i o n a l and n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l t y p e s . A m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n model i s employed, and the i m p l i c a t i o n s of the f i n d i n g s d i s c u s s e d . Urban growth, accompanied by r i s i n g income l e v e l s l e a d s t o i n c r e a s i n g dependence on n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s by households f o r domestic p u r p o s e s . One cause i s the e x p a n s i o n of domestic energy demands such as r e f r i g e r a t i o n , e n t e r t a i n m e n t and a i r c o n d i t i o n i n g , which cannot be s a t i s f i e d by t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s i n t h e i r p r e s e n t form. A second cause i s t h a t u r b a n i z a t i o n i s accompanied by the p r o v i s i o n of n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy s u p p l y systems and the s a l e of a p p l i a n c e s which r e q u i r e the use of such systems. U r b a n i z a t i o n i s an i m p o r t a n t a s p e c t of r e g i o n a l development p o l i c i e s i n N i g e r i a , but w h i l e r e g i o n a l p l a n n e r s seek t o t r a n s f o r m v i l l a g e s i n t o t h r i v i n g urban c e n t r e s w i t h energy s u p p l y systems based on f i n i t e h y d rocarbon r e s o u r c e s , energy p l a n n e r s propose new energy a l t e r n a t i v e s i n v o l v i n g s i m p l e t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r use i n r u r a l s e t t i n g s . T h i s f i n d i n g s u g g e s t s t h a t new energy s u p p l y p o l i c i e s s h o u l d be made an i n t e g r a l p a r t i v of n a t i o n a l development p o l i c i e s . These r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s suggest t h a t a n e e d - d r i v e n approach t o the problem of f i n d i n g a c c e p t a b l e energy s u p p l y a l t e r n a t i v e s i s needed t o r e p l a c e the c u r r e n t l y employed t e c h n o l o g y - d r i v e n approach. Research S u p e r v i s o r : Dr. W i l l i a m Rees v TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT i i TABLE OF CONTENTS v i LIST OF TABLES x i LIST OF FIGURES x v i i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS x v i i i Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION . . 1 1.1 B r i e f Overview of the Research Need and Problem Statement 1 1.2 B a s i c Hypotheses 4 1.3 O b j e c t i v e s of the Study 5 1.4 B a s i c Assumptions of the Study 5 1.5 S i g n i f i c a n c e of the Study 6 1.6 O r g a n i z a t i o n of the Study 7 PART ONE 2 ENERGY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 9 2.1 The Nature and Dimensions of the Problem 10 2.1.1 Dependence on Petroleum Energy Resources and High O i l P r i c e s . . 10 2.1.1.1 Energy Use P a t t e r n s i n the Developing World . . 10 2.1.1.2 High O i l P r i c e s 15 2.1.2 Sources of N o n t r a d i t i o n a l Energy and Supply C o n s t r a i n t s i n Developing C o u n t r i e s 30 2.1.2.1 Petroleum O i l 31 2.1.2.2 Heavy O i l and Tar Sands . 34 2.1.2.3 O i l Shale 36 2.1.2.4 N a t u r a l Gas 38 2.1.2.5 Coal 4 2 2.1.2.6 H y d r o e l e c t r i c Resource P o t e n t i a l 47 v i 2.1.2.7 N u c l e a r Energy 49 2.1.3 T r a d i t i o n a l Energy And Supply C o n s t r a i n t s In D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s 52 3 POLICY OPTIONS AND PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE 63 3.1 Remedies And P r e s c r i p t i o n s 63 3.2 Problems And O b s t a c l e s A s s o c i a t e d W ith P u b l i c Acceptance Of A l t e r n a t e New Energy Supply O p t i o n s 75 3.2.1 The Rol e Of P u b l i c P a r t i c i p a t i o n . . . 77 PART TWO 4 ENERGY IN NIGERIA 85 4.1 Energy R e s o u r c e s , P r o d u c t i o n , And Consumption 86 4.1.1 N o n t r a d i t i o n a l Energy 86 4.1.1.1 P e t r o l e u m Resources 86 4.1.1.2 N a t u r a l Gas 98 4.1.1.3 C o a l 108 4.1.1.4 E l e c t r i c i t y 112 4.1.2 T r a d i t i o n a l Energy Resources 120 4.1.2.1 F o r e s t Energy 120 4.1.3 O v e r a l l Energy Consumption P a t t e r n s In N i g e r i a . 123 4.2 Summary And P o l i c y I m p l i c a t i o n s 128 4.3 A l t e r n a t e New Energy Supply T e c h n o l o g i e s : The Case For N i g e r i a 133 5 THEORETICAL CONTEXT, RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 136 5.1 T h e o r e t i c a l C o n t e x t 136 5.2 Research Design 140 v i i 5.2.1 I d e n t i f i c a t i o n Of The Research P o p u l a t i o n 141 5.2.2 Data C o l l e c t i o n 144 5.3 Res e a r c h Methodology . . 146 5.3.1 F i e l d I n t e r v i e w E x p e r i e n c e s . . . . 153 5.3.2 P r o c e d u r e s For Data A n a l y s i s . . . 159 6 ENERGY USE PATTERNS AND PREFERENCES IN THE NIGERIAN DOMESTIC SECTOR 163 6.1 Frequency Of Use Of V a r i o u s F u e l Types . . 171 6.1.1 C u r r e n t Household F u e l C h o i c e s For Cooking Purposes 171 6.1.1.1 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The Choi c e Of F r e q u e n t l y Used F u e l s For House-h o l d Cooking Purposes 178 6.1.2 C u r r e n t F u e l C h o i c e s For Water H e a t i n g Purposes 181 6.1.2.1 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The Choi c e Of F u e l Types F r e q u e n t l y Used For Household Water H e a t i n g 184 6.1.3 C u r r e n t Household F u e l C h o i c e s For Food P r e s e r v a t i o n P u rposes. . . 189 6.1.3.1 ' F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The Choi c e Of F u e l s F r e q u e n t l y Used For Food P r e s e r v a t i o n . . 195 6.1.4 F u e l s F r e q u e n t l y Used For The Purpose Of Home L i g h t i n g . . . . 197 6.1.4.1 Reasons For The Cho i c e Of P a r t i c u l a r F u e l Types C u r r e n t l y Used For Home L i g h t i n g . . 200 6.1.5 Summary And D i s c u s s i o n 202 6.2 F u e l Types Most P r e f e r r e d By Households 211 For Domestic Purposes 6.2.1 D i s c u s s i o n 218 v i i i 6.3 U n d e s i r a b l e C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s Of F u e l Types C u r r e n t l y Used By Households 226 6.4 E s t i m a t e d Monthly Household Energy Consumption For Domestic Purposes . . . 231 6.4.1 Consumption Of T r a d i t i o n a l Energy Sources 231 6.4.2 Consumption Of N o n t r a d i t i o n a l F u e l s 237 6.4.3 T o t a l Energy Consumption 244 6.4.4 P o l i c y I m p l i c a t i o n s 252 6.5 C o n c l u s i o n 258 PART THREE 7 POLICY AND PLANNING IMPLICATIONS: TOWARDS A NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY AND PROGRAM FOR NIGERIA 260 7.1 Summary 260 7.1.1 O v e r a l l P o l i c y And P l a n n i n g I m p l i c a t i o n s 268 7.2 Energy P o l i c y O p t i o n s For N i g e r i a 272 7.2.1 A d m i n i s t r a t i v e Framework 273 7.2.2 A l t e r n a t e New Energy Resources Supply Systems 276 7.2.2.1 S o l a r Energy 276 7.2.2.2 Wind Power 277 7.2.2.3 Biomass 278 7.2.3 E x i s t i n g Energy Resource Supply Systems 280 7.2.3.1 Fuelwood P r o d u c t i o n . . . 280 7.2.3.2 O i l 284 7.2.3.3 N a t u r a l Gas 285 7.2.3.4 C o a l And Hydro Power . . 286 7.2.4 Energy Supply D i v e r s i f i c a t i o n . . . 287 i x 7.2.5 I n t e g r a t e d Development P l a n s . . . 289 7.2.6 F o r e i g n A i d 291 7.2.7 Energy C o n s e r v a t i o n 292 7.2.8 C o n c l u s i o n s 297 7.3 A Comparison W i t h The R e s u l t s Of A S i m i l a r Study 297 7.4 C o n c l u s i o n s And Recommendations 301 LIST OF REFERENCES 305 APPENDIX 321 DEFINITION OF TERMS 329 CONVERSION FACTORS FOR COMMON ENERGY AND POWER UNITS . . 332 x LIST OF TABLES 2.1 Shares Of N o n t r a d i t i o n a l And Petroleum-Based Energy In T o t a l Energy Consumption In Major S e c t o r s Of I n d i v i d u a l D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s For 1982. . . . 12 2.2 Shares of E l e c t r i c And C o a l Energy In T o t a l Energy Consumption In Major S e c t o r s Of I n d i v i d u a l D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s For 1982 14 2.3 O i l P r i c e Change, And OPEC's O i l As P e r c e n t Of World O i l Consumption 20 2.4 OPEC C o u n t r i e s ' Average D a i l y P r o d u c t i o n From 1970 - 1979, And The L e v e l Of P r o d u c t i o n Quotas In 1982 . 21 2.5 NOIDC Energy B a l a n c e , 1960 - 1980, In M i l l i o n B/D Of O i l E q u i v a l e n t 26 2.6 C u r r e n t Account D e f i c i t s , Net O i l I m p o r t i n g D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s 1973 - 1978 $ B i l l i o n . . . .28 2.7 E s t i m a t e s Of U l t i m a t e World Resources Of C o n v e n t i o n a l O i l 32 2.8 C l a s s i f i c a t i o n Of C o a l By Rank 43 2.9 C o a l C l a s s i f i c a t i o n By World Energy C o n f e r e n c e , 1978 45 2.10 S c h e d u l e d E x p a n s i o n Of N u c l e a r C a p a c i t y (GW(w) In O p e r a t i o n At the End-Year) 50 2.11 The Fuelwood S i t u a t i o n In The D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s 55 2.12 Fuelwood Sh o r t a g e s In D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s , C u r r e n t And F u t u r e Dimensions In M i l l i o n s Of Peopl e A f f e c t e d 57 3.1 T e c h n o l o g i e s For C o n v e r s i o n Of Biomass I n t o U s a b l e F u e l s 70 3.2 T e c h n o l o g i e s For The Use Of F u e l s D e r i v e d From Biomass 72 3.3 Major T e c h n o l o g i e s For Use Of Renewable Energy Resources For The P r o d u c t i o n Of Heat, M e c h a n i c a l , And E l e c t r i c a l Energy 73 4.1 N i g e r i a n Proven Crude O i l R e s e r v e s , 1961 - 1983. . 88 4.2 N i g e r i a Crude O i l P r o d u c t i o n And E x p o r t s . 1961 - 1982 89 x i 4.3 N i g e r i a n Crude O i l E x p o r t s By D e s t i n a t i o n , For 1981 91 4.4 Domestic Consumption Of P e t r o l e u m Energy P r o d u c t s In N i g e r i a 93 4.5 N i g e r i a n S e c t o r a l Consumption Of P e t r o l e u m Energy, In M i l l i o n G i g a j o u l e s 97 4.6 N i g e r i a n ' s N a t u r a l Gas Proven R e s e r v e s , In B i l l i o n C u bic Metres And B i l l i o n G i g a j o u l e s , 1971 - 1983 99 4.7 N i g e r i a n ' s N a t u r a l Gas P r o d u c t i o n , In M i l l i o n M 3 101 4.8 Commercial N a t u r a l Gas Consumption In N i g e r i a 1976 - 1982 104 4.9 S e c t o r a l Consumption Of Commercial Gas In N i g e r i a . 105 4.10 N a t u r a l Gas C y l i n d e r s In N i g e r i a , S i z e s And D e p o s i t s 107 4.11 C o a l P r o d u c t i o n And Consumption In N i g e r i a , In Thousand G i g a j o u l e s 110 4.12 E l e c t r i c i t y P r o d u c t i o n In N i g e r i a , 1970 - 1982, In M i l l i o n G i g a j o u l e s . . 113 4.13 F u e l Energy Used For Thermal E l e c t r i c i t y P r o d u c t i o n In N i g e r i a 116 4.14 N i g e r i a n E l e c t r i c i t y Consumption, i n M i l l i o n G i g a j o u l e s . 118 4.15 Fuelwood Consumption In N i g e r i a , 1970 -1981. . . . 124 4.16 Consumption Of Fuelwood In N i g e r i a , By S e c t o r . . . 125 4.17 Shares Of T o t a l Energy Consumption By S e c t o r In N i g e r i a ( P e r c e n t ) 126 4.18 Shares Of T o t a l Energy Consumption By F u e l Source In N i g e r i a ( P e r c e n t ) 127 4.19 T o t a l Energy Consumed, By S e c t o r , As P e r c e n t a g e Of T o t a l , In N i g e r i a 129 4.20 Shares Of U s e f u l Energy Consumption, By S e c t o r In N i g e r i a As P e r c e n t a g e Of T o t a l 130 5.1 Power Demand And Energy Consumption Of Domestic A p p l i a n c e s In N i g e r i a 150 6.1 Demographic P r o f i l e s By Sample L o c a t i o n s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 165 x i i 6.2 Demographic P r o f i l e s by Sample L o c a t i o n s W i t h i n N i g e r i a ( contd) 166 6.3 Household S i z e As A F u n c t i o n Of Household Income i n Urban S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 167 6.4 Household S i z e As A F u n c t i o n Of Household Income i n R u r a l S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a . . . . 168 6.5 Household S i z e As A F u n c t i o n Of Household Income i n V i l l a g e S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 169 6.6 Frequency Of Use Of C e r t a i n F u e l Types For Cooking Purposes By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 172 6.7 The Use Of T r a d i t i o n a l And N o n t r a d i t i o n a l F u e l Types On A Frequent B a s i s For Cooking Purposes By Monthly Household Income Groups W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 175 6.8 The Use Of T r a d i t i o n a l And N o n t r a d i t i o n a l F u e l Types For Cooking Purposes On A Frequent B a s i s By Household S i z e Groups W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 176 6.9 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l Types In C u r r e n t Use On A Frequent B a s i s For Cooking Purposes By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 180 6.10 Frequency Of Use Of C e r t a i n F u e l Types For Water H e a t i n g Purposes By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 182 6.11 The Use Of T r a d i t i o n a l And N o n t r a d i t i o n a l F u e l Types On A Frequent B a s i s For Water H e a t i n g Purposes by Monthly Household Income Groups W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a . . . 185 6.12 The Use Of T r a d i t i o n a l And N o n t r a d i t i o n a l F u e l Types On A Frequent B a s i s For Water H e a t i n g Purposes By Household S i z e Groups W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 186 6.13 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e Of F u e l Types In C u r r e n t Use On A Frequent B a s i s For Water H e a t i n g Purposes By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 188 6.14 Frequency Of Use Of C e r t a i n F u e l Types For Food P r e s e r v a t i o n Purposes by Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 191 x i i i 6.15 The Use Of T r a d i t i o n a l And N o n t r a d i t i o n a l F u e l Types On A Frequent B a s i s For Food P r e s e r v a t i o n Purposes By Household S i z e Groups W i t h i n R u r a l and Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 193 6.16 The Use Of T r a d i t i o n a l And N o n t r a d i t i o n a l F u e l Types On A Frequent B a s i s For Food P r e s e r v a t i o n Purposes By Household Income Groups W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 194 6.17 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l Types In C u r r e n t Use On A Frequent B a s i s For Food P r e s e r v a t i o n Purposes By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 196 6.18 Frequency Of Use Of C e r t a i n F u e l Types For Home L i g h t i n g Purposes By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 198 6.19 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l Types In C u r r e n t Use On A Frequent B a s i s For Home L i g h t i n g Purposes By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s In N i g e r i a 201 6.20 C o n v e n t i o n a l Energy Resource P r o d u c t s Supply S i t u a t i o n By Sample L o c a t i o n s W i t h i n N i g e r i a . . 203 6.21 F u e l Types In Use On Frequent B a s i s For C o o k i n g , Water H e a t i n g , Home L i g h t i n g And Food P r e s e r v a t i o n Purposes By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 204 6.22 F u e l Types Most P r e f e r r e d For Use In M e e t i n g Major Domestic Energy Tasks By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 212 6.23 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l Types Most P r e f e r r e d For Cooking Purposes By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a . . . 214 6.24 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l Types Most P r e f e r r e d For Water H e a t i n g Purposes By House-h o l d s W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 216 6.25 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l Types Most P r e f e r r e d For Home L i g h t i n g Purposes By House-h o l d s W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 217 6.26 F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e s Of F u e l Types Most P r e f e r r e d For Food P r e s e r v a t i o n Purposes By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 219 x i v 6.27 F u e l Types Which The Households Would L i k e To Have P r o v i d e d For T h e i r Use, In Order Of P r e f e r e n c e s - Case S t u d i e s Of R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 220 6.28 The Mean E s t i m a t e d T o t a l Monthly T r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 232 6.29 T o t a l Monthly T r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption ( I n M e g a j o u l e s ) As F u n c t i o n s Of Monthly Household Income And Household S i z e C a t e g o r i e s For Urban S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 233 6.30 T o t a l Monthly T r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption ( I n M e g a j o u l e s ) As F u n c t i o n s Of Monthly Household Income And Household S i z e C a t e g o r i e s For R u r a l Town S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 234 6.31 T o t a l Monthly T r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption ( I n M e g a j o u l e s ) As F u n c t i o n s Of Monthly Household Income And Household S i z e C a t e g o r i e s For V i l l a g e S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 235 6.32 The Mean E s t i m a t e d T o t a l Monthly N o n t r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption By Households W i t h i n R u r a l And Urban S e t t i n g s Of N i g e r i a 238 6.33 T o t a l Monthly N o n t r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption ( i n M e g a j o u l e s ) As F u n c t i o n s Of Monthly House-h o l d Income And Household S i z e C a t e g o r i e s For R u r a l S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 239 6.34 T o t a l Monthly N o n t r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption ( i n M e g a j o u l e s ) As F u n c t i o n s Of Monthly House-h o l d Income And Household S i z e C a t e g o r i e s For Urban S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 240 6.35 T o t a l M o n thly N o n t r a d i t i o n a l Energy Consumption ( i n M e g a j o u l e s ) As F u n c t i o n s Of Monthly House-h o l d Income And Household S i z e C a t e g o r i e s For V i l l a g e S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 241 6.36 T o t a l M o n thly Energy Consumption ( i n M e g a j o u l e s ) For Domestic Purposes As F u n c t i o n s Of Household Income And Household S i z e For Urban S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 245 6.37 T o t a l M o n thly Energy Consumption ( i n M e g a j o u l e s ) For Domestic Purposes As F u n c t i o n s Of Household Income And Household S i z e For R u r a l S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 246 xv 6.38 T o t a l Monthly Energy Consumption ( i n M e g a j o u l e s ) For Domestic Purposes As F u n c t i o n s Of Household Income And Household S i z e For V i l l a g e S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 247 6.39 T o t a l Monthly F i n a n c i a l E x p e n d i t u r e On Energy For Domestic Purposes ( i n N a i r a ) As F u n c t i o n s Of Household Income And Household S i z e For Urban S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 248 6.40 T o t a l Monthly F i n a n c i a l E x p e n d i t u r e On Energy For Domestic Purposes ( i n N a i r a ) As F u n c t i o n s Of Household Income And Household S i z e For R u r a l S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 249 6.41 T o t a l Monthly F i n a n c i a l E x p e n d i t u r e On Energy For Domestic Purposes ( i n N a i r a ) As F u n c t i o n s Of Household Income And Household S i z e For V i l l a g e S e t t i n g s W i t h i n N i g e r i a 250 7.1 Biomass Energy C o n v e r s i o n T e c h n o l o g i e s 279 7.2 E s t i m a t e d C o s t s Of Biomass And C o n v e n t i o n a l Energy P r o d u c t s In The U.S.A. In $ Per M i l l i o n B.T.U. U n l e s s O t h e r w i s e I n d i c a t e d 281 x v i LIST OF FIGURES 3.1 Major Renewable Energy Resources And A p p l i c a t i o n s For D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s 69 5.1 Map Of N i g e r i a Showing Case Study L o c a t i o n s . . . . 142 7.1 A H y p o t h e t i c a l I n t e g r a t e d Energy Supply System . . 288 7.2 I n t e r a c t i o n Between Energy And Non-Energy S e c t o r s Of The N i g e r i a n Economy 290 x v i i For MARY ERLEAN BROADWAY, MY PARENTS AND DAVID ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I e s p e c i a l l y owe a debt of g r a t i t u d e t o my w i f e D a n i t a , f o r her u n e q u a l l e d s u p p o r t , encouragement, a s s i s t a n c e and s a c r i f i c e t h roughout the s i x y e a r s t h i s s t u d y was underway. A s s i s t a n c e was a l s o r e c e i v e d from my s u p e r v i s o r y committee, composed of Dr. John Chapman, Dr. Henry Hightower, Dr. P e t e r Nemetz, and my s u p e r v i s o r Dr. W i l l i a m Rees. T h e i r commitment, t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e , and a d v i s e i s g r e a t l y a p p r e c i a t e d . My f i e l d r e s e a r c h i n N i g e r i a was s u p e r v i s e d by P r o f e s s o r N e l s o n Ngoka of the U n i v e r s i t y of I f e , and I am g r a t e f u l f o r h i s a s s i s t a n c e . S p e c i a l thanks must go t o the F e d e r a l Government of N i g e r i a which funded t h i s s t u d y . F i n a n c i a l a s s i s t a n c e was a l s o p r o v i d e d t h r o u g h the U n i v e r s i t y of B r i t i s h Columbia by the Donner Canadian F o u n d a t i o n S c h o l a r s h i p and M e l l o n S c h o l a r s h i p , which a r e much a p p r e c i a t e d . A p p r e c i a t i o n i s extended t o Dr. W a l t e r Henson, D i r e c t o r of the N a t u r a l Resources I n s t i t u t e a t the U n i v e r s i t y of M a n i t o b a , f o r h i s r e l e n t l e s s support and encouragement from the i n c e p t i o n of my Ph.D. program t o i t s c o m p l e t i o n ; as w e l l as f o r the generous g i f t of computer t i m e . J i m Ferguson and John Skynner a l s o p r o v i d e d much a p p r e c i a t e d a s s i s t a n c e i n computer a n a l y s i s of d a t a . I w i s h t o e x p r e s s my g r a t i t u d e t o P r o f e s s o r Ken M c V i c a r , Department of P o l i t i c a l S t u d i e s , Dr. John Gray, Department of Economics, and Dr. V. S m i l , Department of Geography, a l l a t the U n i v e r s i t y of M a n i t o b a , f o r t h e i r h e l p f u l a d v i c e and t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e . I am g r a t e f u l t o the s t a f f of x v i i i Resources f o r the F u t u r e and the World Bank's Energy P o l i c y U n i t i n Washington, as w e l l as t o those a t the F o r e s t r y D i v i s i o n and Energy P o l i c y U n i t of FAO i n Rome f o r t h e i r a s s i s t a n c e i n l o c a t i n g u s e f u l secondary r e s e a r c h documents and r e p o r t s . Thanks a l s o go t o P r o f e s s o r Brahm Wiesman, Dr. Mathew Ohanamah, Mr. Stephen Obiagwu, Mr. Raymond Ogbu, and Mr. & Mrs. A. O k o l i . My c o l l e a g u e s A l a i n Cunningham and Ed Huebert have a l s o been c o n t i n u i n g s o u r c e s of encouragement. F i n a l l y , I w i s h t o e x p r e s s my g r a t i t u d e t o my p a r e n t s , Mr. & Mrs. D a v i d Onyebuchi, whose l o v e , v i s i o n , c o n f i d e n c e and p r a y e r s h e l p e d t o make t h i s s t u d y p o s s i b l e . x i x CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION The p r i m a r y f o c u s o f t h i s t h e s i s i s a n a l y s i s o f t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h t h e q u a l i t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h commonly p r o p o s e d new e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r d o m e s t i c p u r p o s e s s a t i s f y t h e needs and p r e f e r e n c e s of h o u s e h o l d s i n b o t h r u r a l and u r b a n s e t t i n g s i n N i g e r i a . T h i s g o a l i s a c c o m p l i s h e d t h r o u g h i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f t h e f a c t o r s on w h i c h N i g e r i a n h o u s e h o l d s base t h e i r e x i s t i n g f u e l c h o i c e s , t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e s f o r c e r t a i n t r a d i t i o n a l and non-t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l t y p e s i n m e e t i n g major d o m e s t i c e n e r g y n e e d s , and t h e d e g r e e t o w h i c h t h e s e f a c t o r s a r e r e f l e c t e d i n t h e d e s i g n s o f commonly p r o p o s e d a l t e r n a t e new e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r d o m e s t i c use i n N i g e r i a . The f i n d i n g s o f t h e s t u d y a r e g e n e r a l i z e d f o r a p p l i c a t i o n t o o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , where p o s s i b l e . The need f o r t h i s s t u d y i s d e t e r m i n e d t h r o u g h a r e v i e w o f e x i s t i n g l i t e r a t u r e c o n c e r n i n g e n e r g y s u p p l y p r o b l e m s and a l t e r n a t i v e e n e r g y p o l i c y p r e s c r i p t i o n s f o r b o t h t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i n g e n e r a l and N i g e r i a i n p a r t i c u l a r . B r i e f Overview Of The R e s e a r c h Need And Problem Statement T h e r e a r e two r e l a t e d e n e r g y c r i s e s i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . F i r s t , g r o w i n g d o m e s t i c d ependence on n o n r e n e w a b l e p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s has v a r y i n g i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r d i f f e r e n t g r o u p s o f d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . The c o s t of i m p o r t e d p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s p u t s c o n s i d e r a b l e s t r a i n on t h e b a l a n c e o f payment c o n d i t i o n s o f n e t o i l i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s w h i c h form t h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , and i s a c c o m p a n i e d by 1 2 w o r s e n i n g debt problems. In net o i l e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s f o r e i g n exchange e a r n i n g s a r e t i e d t o o i l e x p o r t s , and growing domestic demands f o r p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s can be met o n l y t h r o u g h a more r a p i d d e p l e t i o n of t h e i r f i n i t e p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s . T h i s problem of growing domestic dependence on p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s i n most d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s compounded by the l a c k of i n t e r n a l s u p p l i e s of o t h e r known n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l t y p e s such as n a t u r a l gas, c o a l , h y d r o e l e c t r i c power r e s o u r c e s , and n u c l e a r power. For example, the m a j o r i t y of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s who are most dependent on o i l i m p o r t s t e n d t o be l e a s t well-endowed w i t h n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s . C o a l i s used s u b s t a n t i a l l y i n j u s t a few d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s where mines have been w e l l - d e v e l o p e d , n o t a b l y i n C h i n a , I n d i a , Zimbabwe, Zambia and N o r t h K o r e a . However, c o a l r e s o u r c e s i n s e v e r a l d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e not y e t e c o n o m i c a l l y or t e c h n i c a l l y r e c o v e r a b l e . In a d d i t i o n , h i g h i n f r a s t r u c t u r e c o s t s f o r m i n i n g , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , and h a n d l i n g may c o n t i n u e t o slow development of c o a l r e s o u r c e s i n many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . H y d r o e l e c t r i c r e s o u r c e p o t e n t i a l s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d a r e r e s t r i c t e d t o j u s t a few c o u n t r i e s , w h i l e n u c l e a r power p l a y s an i n s i g n i f i c a n t r o l e and i s l i k e l y t o c o n t i n u e t o do so, s i n c e even f o r t h o s e c o u n t r i e s which have the r e q u i r e d uranium d e p o s i t s , the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d ' s c o n c e r n s about n u c l e a r p r o l i f e r a t i o n a r e d i f f i c u l t t o overcome, as a r e s a f e t y problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h n u c l e a r energy s u p p l y t e c h n o l o g i e s . The second energy c r i s i s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d r e l a t e s t o the s u p p l y of t r a d i t i o n a l or noncommercial energy s o u r c e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y fuelwood and i t s d e r i v a t i v e , c h a r c o a l . A l t h o u g h 3 t h e s e f u e l s a r e o f t e n bought and s o l d , they a r e r e f e r r e d t o as \"noncommercial\" forms of energy because such t r a n s a c t i o n s a r e not r e c o r d e d i n commercial energy s t a t i s t i c s and do not i n v o l v e i n t e r n a t i o n a l exchange. Yet t h e s e noncommercial energy s o u r c e s s u p p l y more than n i n e t y p e r c e n t of the energy needs of the r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , and account f o r about t w e n t y - f i v e p e r c e n t of t o t a l energy consumption of t h e s e c o u n t r i e s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , however, due t o p r o l o n g e d drought and p r e s s u r e s from i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n , f i r e w o o d s c a r c i t i e s a r e c r i t i c a l i n many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s and have r e s u l t e d i n what i s c a l l e d \"the o t h e r energy c r i s i s \" by Eckholm (1975) and T o l b a (1978), and \"the poor man's energy c r i s i s \" ( U n i t e d N a t i o n s . 1978) . C o n s i d e r a t i o n of the v a r i o u s d i m e n s i o n s of energy problems i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s has g i v e n impetus t o p o l i c y p r e s c r i p t i o n s and new energy s t r a t e g i e s f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s which a r e d e s i g n e d t o reduce or a v o i d dependence on nonrenewable h y d r o c a r b o n f u e l r e s o u r c e s and slow down the p r o c e s s of d e p l e t i o n of domestic f i r e w o o d r e s o u r c e s (World Bank, 1979a, 1981; H i l l i n g , 1976; E a r l , 1975; F r e n c h , 1978a; and P a r i k h , 1975). In the h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r s o l a r c o o k e r s , b i o g a s , and improved wood s t o v e s a r e the most commonly proposed a l t e r n a t e new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r domestic use i n N i g e r i a and the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d as a whole. Development and a p p l i c a t i o n of such a l t e r n a t e new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s has been the main f o c u s of r e s e a r c h c o n c e r n i n g energy i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s s i n c e the m i d - s e v e n t i e s , and i s d i s c u s s e d e x t e n s i v e l y i n c u r r e n t l i t e r a t u r e (World Bank, 1981a; Eden et a l . ; 1981; 4 Roa, 1 9 8 1 ; D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , 1981a; C e c e l s k i e t a l . , 1979; Rahmer, 1979; R u e d i s l i e t a l . e d s . , 1978; Auer e t a l . , 1978; Brown, e d . , 1978; WAES, 1977). B o t h s o l a r c o o k e r s and b i o g a s a r e t e c h n i c a l l y and e c o n o m i c a l l y f e a s i b l e , and b o t h i n v o l v e t h e use o f c h e a p , r e n e w a b l e , v e r s a t i l e e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s w h i c h have t h e p o t e n t i a l t o p r o v i d e s u s t a i n a b l e , e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y s a f e d e c e n t r a l i z e d e n e r g y s u p p l y s y s t e m s u s i n g what a r e known as i n t e r m e d i a t e t e c h n o l o g i e s . D e s p i t e s u c h v i r t u e s and t h e a t t e n t i o n t h e y have been g i v e n i n l i t e r a t u r e c o n c e r n i n g e n e r g y i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , t h e s e a l t e r n a t e new e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s have p r o v e n t o be u n a c c e p t a b l e t o h o u s e h o l d s w i t h i n N i g e r i a and o t h e r c o u n t r i e s o f t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . I t i s t h i s p r o b l e m o f a c c e p t a n c e o f a l t e r n a t e new e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s by t h e i n t e n d e d u s e r s w h i c h prompts t h e r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n , \"Are t h e q u a l i t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h c u r r e n t l y p r o p o s e d a l t e r n a t e new e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r d o m e s t i c use t h o s e on w h i c h e x i s t i n g c h o i c e s o r p r e f e r e n c e s f o r f u e l t y p e s by h o u s e h o l d s a r e b a s e d ? \" 1.2 B a s i c Hypotheses The f i r s t h y p o t h e s i s i s t h a t t h e o f t e n - c i t e d v i r t u e s of t h e commonly p r o p o s e d a l t e r n a t e new e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s ( e . g . s o l a r c o o k e r s , b i o g a s , and i m p r o v e d w o o d - b u r n i n g s t o v e s ) f o r d o m e s t i c use i n N i g e r i a and t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d as a whole, a r e n o t t h o s e on w h i c h e x i s t i n g c h o i c e s and p r e f e r e n c e s f o r f u e l t y p e s by h o u s e h o l d s a r e b a s e d . S e c o n d , r e l a t e d t o t h e a bove, i s t h e h y p o t h e s e s t h a t t h e commonly p r o p o s e d a l t e r n a t e new e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r d o m e s t i c use i n N i g e r i a do n o t a d e q u a t e l y r e f l e c t t h e d e s i r a b l e i n t r i n s i c 5 q u a l i t i e s o f f u e l s c h o s e n b y N i g e r i a n h o u s e h o l d s . T h i r d , i s t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t u r b a n i z a t i o n , r e i n f o r c e d b y r i s i n g i n c o m e , r e s u l t s i n i n c r e a s e s i n t h e d o m e s t i c l e v e l o f e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n i n g e n e r a l , a n d o f e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s s u c h a s p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s i n p a r t i c u l a r . 1 .3 O b j e c t i v e s Of The Study T h e o b j e c t i v e s o f t h i s s t u d y a r e : 1. T o e x a m i n e e n e r g y s u p p l y p r o b l e m s i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , w i t h e m p h a s i s o n N i g e r i a , a n d t o a n a l y s e t h e c o m m o n l y p r o p o s e d a l t e r n a t e e n e r g y p o l i c y p r e s c r i p t i o n s a n d t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s a r i s i n g f r o m s u c h p o l i c i e s . 2. T o e x a m i n e e x i s t i n g h o u s e h o l d e n e r g y u s e p a t t e r n s a n d p r e f e r e n c e s i n N i g e r i a , t h r o u g h c a s e s t u d i e s i n b o t h r u r a l a n d u r b a n s e t t i n g s . 3. T o i d e n t i f y f a c t o r s g o v e r n i n g t h e c h o i c e o f v a r i o u s f u e l t y p e s , a n d e x a m i n e t h e d e g r e e t o w h i c h t h e s e f a c t o r s a r e a d d r e s s e d i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f a l t e r n a t e n e w e n e r g y s u p p l y t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r N i g e r i a . 4. T o d i s c u s s t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s f o r p o l i c y p r e s c r i p t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t e e n e r g y s u p p l y p o l i c i e s f o r N i g e r i a a n d o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , w h e r e a p p l i c a b l e . 1.4 B a s i c Assumptions o f The Study 1. E x p l o r a t i o n o f e n e r g y p o l i c y o p t i o n s f o r a d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y m u s t b e p r e c e d e d b y a n u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e 6 s o c i o - e c o n o m i c f a c t o r s which i n f l u e n c e e x i s t i n g energy use p a t t e r n s and use r p r e f e r e n c e s f o r a v a i l a b l e f u e l t y p e s . 2. I f new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s i n v o l v i n g biomass, b i o g a s , and s o l a r a r e t o be a c c e p t e d by the p e o p l e , the d e s i g n s of such a l t e r n a t i v e s must demonstrate q u a l i t i e s of f u e l use which the l o c a l p e o p l e choose i n t h e i r c u r r e n t use and p r e f e r e n c e s of a v a i l a b l e f u e l t y p e s . 3. T e c h n o l o g i c a l i n n o v a t i o n must be d r i v e n by u s e r s ' sense of needs, both monetary and nonmonetary. A l t h o u g h N i g e r i a may not a t f i r s t g l a n c e appear t y p i c a l of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s because of her endowment of d i v e r s e energy r e s o u r c e s , a n a l y s i s of the l i t e r a t u r e r e v e a l s t h a t N i g e r i a n s u p p l y problems m i r r o r the energy problems of o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , i n c l u d i n g p o t e n t i a l r e l i a n c e on n o n t r a d i t i o n a l nonrenewable energy s o u r c e s , r a p i d d e p l e t i o n of t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of energy, and the problem of i d e n t i f y i n g and a s s e s s i n g a l t e r n a t e energy s u p p l y s o u r c e s which a r e a c c e p t a b l e t o the c o u n t r y ' s c i t i z e n s . 1_.5 S i g n i f i c a n c e Of The Study T h i s s t u d y p r o v i d e s i n s i g h t i n t o major i s s u e s c o n c e r n i n g energy s u p p l y problems of N i g e r i a and the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d g e n e r a l l y . The s t u d y adds t o the body of knowledge used i n the s e a r c h f o r a p p r o p r i a t e energy p o l i c y o p t i o n s f o r the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . F o c u s i n g on user p r e f e r e n c e s f o r e x i s t i n g t r a d i t i o n a l and n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l t y p e s , the s t u d y h i g h l i g h t s i s s u e s t o be 7 emphasized i n f u t u r e r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s i n t h i s f i e l d . Energy i s of v i t a l importance t o the economies and b a l a n c e of payments of a l l n a t i o n s . The major g o a l of many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s t o a c h i e v e a c c e l e r a t e d economic and s o c i a l development, i n v o l v i n g the p r o v i s i o n of adequate q u a n t i t i e s of food f o r t h e i r c i t i z e n r y , p o p u l a t i o n c o n t r o l , r e d u c t i o n of r e g i o n a l d i s p a r i t i e s and i m m i g r a t i o n problems, e s t a b l i s h m e n t of e x p o r t and import s u b s t i t u t i o n i n d u s t r i e s , and an improved q u a l i t y of l i f e . The r e a l i z a t i o n of t h i s g o a l demands s u p p l i e s o f , and a c c e s s t o , the r i g h t energy s o u r c e s . The major emphasis of t h i s s tudy i s on the need t o a s c e r t a i n i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g p u b l i c v a l u e s or p r e f e r e n c e s p r i o r t o f o r m u l a t i o n of energy p o l i c y o p t i o n s . However, t h i s need a p p l i e s t o o t h e r p l a n n i n g p r a c t i c e s as w e l l , p a r t i c u l a r l y when they i n v o l v e the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . 1 . 6 Organization of The Study The s t u d y b e g i n s , i n Chapter 2, w i t h an e x a m i n a t i o n of r e l e v a n t l i t e r a t u r e d e a l i n g w i t h energy s u p p l y i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . Some of the problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h p o l i c y p r e s c r i p t i o n s f o r the T h i r d World a r e i d e n t i f i e d i n Chapter 3. Chapter 4 f o c u s e s on the energy s u p p l y s i t u a t i o n i n N i g e r i a , and p r e s e n t s a n a l y s i s of p o l i c i e s g o v e r n i n g t h o s e s u p p l i e s . The r e s e a r c h d e s i g n and methodology a r e p r e s e n t e d i n Chapter 5 . R e s u l t s of an a n a l y s i s of i n t e r v i e w q u e s t i o n n a i r e d a t a p e r t a i n i n g t o hou s e h o l d energy use p a t t e r n s and p r e f e r e n c e s i n N i g e r i a a r e p r e s e n t e d i n Chapter 6 , t o g e t h e r w i t h d i s c u s s i o n of t he r e s e a r c h f i n d i n g s and t h e i r p o l i c y i m p l i c a t i o n s . The 8 f i n a l c h a p t e r i s a summary of the s t u d y , the r e s e a r c h e r ' s c o n c l u s i o n s and recommendations. PART ONE CHAPTER 2 ENERGY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Energy problems of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d have been i d e n t i f i e d by numerous s o u r c e s as c o n s i s t i n g of t h r e e major and i n t e r r e l a t e d a s p e c t s (FAO, 1983; D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , 1981a; C e c e l s k i e t a l . , 1979; World Bank, 1979a, 1980a; S m i l and Knowland, 1981; Eden e t a l . , 1981). F i r s t i s the growing dependence on f i n i t e and nonrenewable n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy t h a t i s p e t r o l e u m based. I n c r e a s e s i n the p r i c e of impor t e d o i l p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s have put a g r e a t s t r a i n on the b a l a n c e of payments, w i t h many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s s pending more than h a l f of t h e i r f o r e i g n exchange f o r hydro-carbon f u e l . Second a r e the problems caused by s h o r t a g e s of f i r e w o o d , the f u e l on which t h r e e - q u a r t e r s of the p o p u l a t i o n of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s depend f o r c o o k i n g and water h e a t i n g . These problems of growing dependence on nonrenewable p e t r o l e u m energy, and s h o r t a g e s of f i r e w o o d on which the m a j o r i t y of the p o p u l a t i o n of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s c u r r e n t l y depend, a r e compounded by c o n s t r a i n t s t o i n d i g e n o u s s u p p l i e s of o t h e r n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy r e s o u r c e s i n c l u d i n g c o a l , n a t u r a l gas, hydro, o i l s h a l e , o i l sands, and n u c l e a r energy. The t h i r d major a s p e c t of energy problems of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i s t h a t of i d e n t i f y i n g new energy s u p p l y o p t i o n s based on renewable r e s o u r c e s such as s o l a r , wind and biomass t h a t w i l l g a i n w i d e s p r e a d p u b l i c a c c e p t a n c e . T h i s d i s c u s s i o n w i l l be c o n f i n e d t o a re v i e w of l i t e r a t u r e 9 10 and analysis concerned with the three dominant elements of the debate over energy questions of the developing world. These include the nature and dimensions of the energy problem, remedies and prescriptions for a l l e v i a t i n g the problem, and problems or obstacles associated with commonly proposed new energy options. 2.1 T h e N a t u r e A n d D i m e n s i o n s O f T h e P r o b l e m As previously mentioned, the nature and dimensions of energy problems for the developing world relate to the potential for overwhelming dependence on nonrenewable petroleum energy resources, accompanied by the implications of high o i l prices. Second are problems related to shortages of firewood supplies. Third i s the problem of i d e n t i f y i n g and assessing alternate new energy supply sources with prospects for gaining public acceptance for their use. 2.1.1 D e p e n d e n c e On P e t r o l e u m E n e r g y R e s o u r c e s A n d H i g h O i l P r i c e s O i l and i t s by-products represent the major sources of nontraditional energy consumed in developing countries, accounting for as much as eighty percent of t o t a l nontraditional energy consumed annually (Dunkerley et a l . , 1981a). The potential for overwhelming dependence on petroleum energy resources by the developing world becomes apparent through analysis of i t s energy use patterns. 2_. 1_. 1_. 1_ Energy Use Patterns In The Developing World Data for a study of energy use patterns in the developing 11 w o r l d i s p r o v i d e d by the U n i t e d N a t i o n s (1985) i n a p u b l i c a t i o n e n t i t l e d Energy B a l a n c e and E l e c t r i c i t y P r o f i l e s 1902. The a n a l y s i s i s based on d a t a c o n c e r n i n g f o r t y - e i g h t s e l e c t e d d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s r e p r e s e n t i n g a wide range of per c a p i t a incomes, development l e v e l s , and r e s o u r c e endowments. Energy f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and households a r e examined; the a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r i s e x c l u d e d o n l y because of the l a c k of d a t a . T a b l e 2.1 p r e s e n t s the p r o p o r t i o n of t o t a l energy consumption w i t h i n major s e c t o r s of each d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y which i s r e p r e s e n t e d by n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy, and how g r e a t a share i s c l a i m e d by petroleum-based energy, based on 1982 f i g u r e s . In a l l but a few c a s e s , n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy which i s m o s t l y petroleum-based a c c o u n t s f o r over f i f t y p e r c e n t of t o t a l energy consumed i n the i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r . I n d u s t r i a l t e c h n o l o g i e s which were d e v e l o p e d i n the 1950s and 1960s t e n d t o use n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy r e s o u r c e s r a t h e r than t r a d i t i o n a l energy s o u r c e s i n t h e i r p r e s e n t form, because of the f o r m e r ' s g r e a t e r f l e x i b i l i t y . Growth i n t h i s s e c t o r w i l l r e s u l t i n i n c r e a s e d dependence on n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy r e s o u r c e s such as o i l and e l e c t r i c i t y which i s m o s t l y p e t r o l e u m - b a s e d , and t h o s e c o u n t r i e s which do not have adequate domestic p e t r o l e u m energy r e s o u r c e s w i l l be f o r c e d t o compete w i t h the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d f o r s u p p l i e s of p e t r o l e u m . Net o i l e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , on the o t h e r hand, w i l l be f a c e d w i t h the dilemma of e i t h e r m a i n t a i n i n g or i n c r e a s i n g t h e i r l e v e l of o i l e x p o r t s i n the i n t e r e s t of o b t a i n i n g more c a p i t a l f o r i n d u s t r i a l development, or d e c r e a s i n g the volume of t h e i r o i l e x p o r t s i n the i n t e r e s t of c o n s e r v i n g s u p p l i e s f o r s e r v i n g expanding l o c a l 12 T A B L E 2.1 SHARES OF NONTRADITIONAL AND PETROLEUM-BASED ENERGY IN TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN MAJOR SECTORS OF INDIVIDUAL DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR 1982 NONTRADITIONAL EN^ AS 'A OF TOTAL PETROLEUM-BASED ENL AS X OF TOTAL COUNTRY INDUSTRY TRANSPOR- HOUSE- INDUSTRY TRANSPGR- HOUSEHOLD TAT I ON HOLD TAT I ON Argent i na 90 .4 100.0 72.8 70 .0 99.5 58.9 Bangladesh 86.5 100.0 49.6 50.7 100 .0 4.7 Barbados 59.8 100.0 100 .0 19.8 100.0 .69.8 Boli w i a 63.8 100.0 49.6 55.9 100.0 42.8 Braz i1 62.6 99.9 23.7 31 .0 99.5 14.0 Chile 100.0 100.0 20 .2 52.8 98.7 9.8 Columbi a 86.2 100.0 18.1 37.4 100.0 0.2 Costa Rica 34.0 100.0 25.5 1 .3 99.8 8.3 Cyprus 100.0 100.0 92.0 90.2 99.8 67.8 Ecuador . 83.0 100.0 17.2 72.6 100.0 10.7 Egypt 94.1 100.0 100 .0 75.7 99.2 80 .0 El Salvador 57.9 100.0 100.0 44.3 100.0 2.8 F i j i 80 .7 100 .0 30.5 31 .0 100 .0 23.4 Gabon 98.3 100.0 100 .0 93.5 100 .0 56.3 Honduras 43.5 100 .0 9.5 34.8 100 .0 7.1 Hong Kong 100.0 100.0 90.1 77.2 99.7 51 .2 Indi a 89.4 100.0 17.2 12.2 67.2 12.9 Indonesia 90.7 100.0 14.8 84.7 99.7 13.8 Israel 100.0 100.0 99.2 78.0 100 .0 62.9 Ivory Coast 68.2 100.0 5.8 53.0 90 .8 4.4 Jama i ca 93.9 100.0 90 .4 85.1 100.0 0.0 Jordan 100 .0 100.0 100 .0 91 .5 100 .0 0.0 Kenya 58.8 100.0 0.8 37.2 98.9 0.2 Korea Rep. 100.0 100.0 87.0 56.3 99.3 17.3 Kuwa i t 100.0 100.0 100 .0 76.7 100.0 6.6 Ma 1 aw i 8.0 100.0 1 .1 0.1 100.0 0.7 Morocco 100.0 100.0 40.0 85.5 100 .0 19.7 Nepal 86.2 100.0 1.1 30.4 91 .9 0.9 Ni caragua 29.7 100.0 7.1 20.6 100 .0 3.4 Niger 100.0 100.0 0.7 57.6 100 .0 0.5 N i ger i a 99.3 100.0 4.8 95.3 99.4 2.9 Pak i stan 88.6 100.0 26.7 56.5 100 .0 23.8 Panama 55.6 100.0 100.0 48.8 100.0 57.4 Papua New Gu i nea 49.5 100.0 2.3 23.6 100.0 1 . 4 Peru 87.1 100.0 41 .5 62.3 100 .0 34.8 Ph i 1 i pp ines 65.6 100.0 20.1 44.5 100.0 17.1 Qatar 100.0 100.0 98.0 94.0 100 .0 24.0 Saudi Arabia 100.0 100.0 100 .0 91 .9 100 .0 37.S S i ngapore 100.0 100.0 99.4 93.7 100 .0 92.5 Solomon Is. 100.0 100.0 3.6 97.3 100 .0 2.6 Sri Lanka 43.2 100.0 15.3 32.2 100 .0 13.9 Tha i1 and 59.6 100.0 6.4 37.7 100 .0 3.3 Trinidad and Tobago 95.6 100.0 92.1 85.9 10C.0 10.0 Tun i s i a 100.0 100.0 36.7 80.1 99.4 36.7 Uraguay 72.5 100.0 55.7 54.2 99.7 32.8 Venezuela 97.3 100.0 93.6 81 .3 100 .0 68.2 Zamb i a 93.5 100.0 6.4 20 .5 100 .0 0.0 Z imbabwe 80.6 100.0 7.0 5.1 100.0 0 .4 Source: United Nations. 1985. Eneroy Balances And E' 1ec tr i c i ty Prof i I es 1982 New York: United Nat i ons. 13 demands. The h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r s i n the m a j o r i t y of the f o r t y - e i g h t d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s s t u d i e d , r e l y p r i m a r i l y on t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of energy. In the p o o r e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s such as Honduras, Kenya, M a l a w i , N e p a l , N i c a r a g u a , N i g e r , Zambia and Papua New G u i n e a , t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s account f o r as much as n i n e t y p e r c e n t of t o t a l energy consumption by the h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r . Not o n l y do t h e s e c o u n t r i e s l a c k p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s f o r use by h o u s e h o l d s , but as w i l l be shown l a t e r , they a l s o f a c e a c t u a l or p o t e n t i a l fuelwood s u p p l y problems. As i n the d e v e l o p e d w o r l d , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s depend almost e x c l u s i v e l y on n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy s o u r c e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y p e t r o l e u m which a c c o u n t s f o r over n i n e t y p e r c e n t of t o t a l energy consumption. T h i s s i t u a t i o n i s u n l i k e l y t o change so l o n g as a u t o m o b i l e s , l o c o m o t i v e s and a i r c r a f t s c o n t i n u e t o be powered by p e t r o l e u m energy. As i s shown i n T a b l e 2.2 e l e c t r i c i t y and c o a l c o n t r i b u t e l i t t l e t o the i n d u s t r i a l , h o u s e h o l d , and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r s of d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d energy consumptions r e l a t i v e t o the r o l e p l a y e d by p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s . T h i s may be because of the c o s t s and t e c h n i c a l d i f f i c u l t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the e x p o r t of t h e s e f u e l s t o a l l but c o n t i g e o u s a r e a s . S m i l and Knowland (1981:9) p o i n t out t h a t , [Crude o i l ] can be c o n v e n i e n t l y s t o r e d f o r l o n g p e r i o d s of time u n l i k e c o a l , n a t u r a l gas, or e l e c t r i c i t y , and i t i s e a s i l y and i n e x p e n s i v e l y t r a n s p o r t e d i n l a r g e or s m a l l q u a n t i t i e s ; and t h r o u g h r e f i n i n g , of c o u r s e , i t can be broken i n t o a v a r i e t y of s p e c i f i c e n d - p r o d u c t s h a v i n g a v e r y wide range of f i n a l u s es. P r e c i s e l y t h e s e r e l a t i v e advantages over most o t h e r energy s o u r c e s have made crude o i l the u n i v e r s a l f u e l of c h o i c e f o r most modern economic needs. 14 T A B L E 2.2 SHARES OF ELECTRIC AND COAL ENERGY IN TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN MAJOR SECTORS Of INDIVIDUAL DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FOR 1982 \" ELECTRICITY AS X OF TOTAL COAL AS V. OF TOTAL COUNTRY INDUSTRY TRANSPOR- HOUSE- INDUSTRY TRANSPOR- HOUSE-TAT I ON HOLD TAT I ON HOLD A r g e n t i n a 16 .6 0 . 2 14.0 3.1 0 .0 0 .0 B a n g l a d e s h 17 .5 0 . 0 0 . 3 1 8 . 3 0 . 0 0 . 0 B a r b a d o s 4 1 . 2 0 .0 3 0 . 2 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 B o l i v i a 7 .7 0 . 0 6 . 8 0 . 2 0 .0 0 .0 B r a z i1 I S . 5 0 . 4 9 . 7 13.1 0 .0 0 .0 C h i l e 30.1 0 . 7 10.0 17.1 0 . 6 0 . 4 Colufflbi a 9 .0 0 .0 17 .8 3 9 . 7 0 .0 5 .4 C o s t a R i c a 3 2 . 7 0 . 2 1 1 . 3 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 C y p r u s 9 . 8 0 . 2 3 6 . 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 E c u a d o r 10.4 0 .0 6 . 5 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 E g y p t 11 .7 0 .0 0 . 0 6 . 8 0.1 0 .0 E l S a l v a d o r 13 .7 0 . 0 3 . 3 0 . 0 0 .0 0 . 0 F i j i 2 7 . 5 0 .0 7.1 2 2 . 2 0 . 0 0 .0 Gabon 4 . 8 0 .0 4 3 . 7 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 Honduras 8.6 0 . 0 2.4 0 . 0 0 .0 0 .0 Hong Kong 2 1 . 7 0 . 3 39 .0 1.9 0 . 0 0 .0 I n d i a 10.6 1.2 1.6 6 6 . 6 3 1 . 6 2 .6 I n d o n e s i a 4 . 5 0 . 0 0 . 9 1.5 0 . 3 0 .0 I s r a e l 21 .9 0 .0 3 7 . 2 0.1 0 .0 0 . 6 I v o r y C o a s t 15.1 9 . 2 1 .4 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 Jama i ca 8 . 7 0 .0 100.0 0.1 0 .0 0 .0 J o r d a n 18.5 0 .0 0 . 6 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 Kenya 8 . 5 0 . 0 100.0 3.1 1.1 0.01 K o r e a Rep . 100.0 0 .0 9 3 . 4 2 4 . 5 0 . 3 0 . 7 Kuwa i t 19 .2 0 . 7 4 . 6 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 Ma iawi 2 .9 0 .0 0 . 5 6 . 8 0 .0 0 .0 M o r o c c o 11 .7 0 .0 2 0 . 3 1.1 0 .0 0 .0 Ne p a l 0 .4 0 . 0 0 . 2 4 9 . 3 8 . 3 0 .0 N i c a r a g u a 9 .0 0 .0 3 .7 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 N i ger 18 .3 0 . 0 0 . 2 0 .0 0 . 0 0 .0 N i g e r i a 3.1 0 .0 1 .8 1 .4 0 . 6 0 .0 Pak i s t a n 10 .8 0 . 0 2 .9 2 0 . 8 0 .0 0 .0 Panama 6.9 0 . 0 4 2 . 6 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 Papua New 6u i nea 2 5 . 9 0 .0 0 . 9 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 P e r u 19 .7 0 .0 6 . 7 5.1 0 .0 0 . 0 Ph i 1 i p p i n e s 13.6 0 .0 3 . 9 7 .4 0 .0 0 .0 Q a t a r 6 .0 0 . 0 7 6 . 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 S a u d i A r a b i a 8.1 0 .0 6 2 . 2 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 S i n g a p o r e 6 . 3 0 . 0 6 . 9 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 S o l onion I s l a n d s 2 .7 0 .0 1.1 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 S r i Lanka 8.1 0 . 0 1.5 2 .9 0 .0 0 .0 T h a i l a n d 19.4 0 .0 3.1 2.4 0.0 0.1 T r i n i dad and Tobago 9 .6 0 .0 82.1 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 Tun i s i a 10 .3 0 . 6 0 . 7 9 . 5 0 .0 0 . 3 Uraguay 17.7 0 . 3 2 2 . 9 0 . 5 0 .0 0 .0 V e n e z u e l a 14 .3 0 .0 2 5 . 4 1.8 0 .0 0 .0 Zambi a 3 8 . 9 0 . 0 16 .2 31 .5 0 .0 0 . 2 Z irababwe 2 2 . 7 0 .0 6 . 6 5 2 . 8 30 .1 0 .0 S o u r c e i U n i t e d N a t i o n s . 1985. E n e r g y B a l a n c e s And E l e c t r i c i t y P r o f i l e s 1982. N e w Y o r k t U n i t e d Nat i o n s . 15 The i n t e r r e l a t e d n a t u r e of the i n d u s t r i a l , h o u s e h o l d , and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r s of a c o u n t r y ' s economy has some s e r i o u s i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . I n d u s t r i a l growth, which i s l a r g e l y dependent on p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s , i s almost c e r t a i n t o l e a d t o an i n c r e a s e i n the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n of goods and s e r v i c e s which i n t u r n i s s o l e l y dependent on p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s . S i m i l a r l y , as h o u s e h o l d income i n c r e a s e s t h r o u g h i n d u s t r i a l growth w i t h i n the c o u n t r y , t h e r e i s a s t r o n g tendency f o r h o u s e h o l d s t o become dependent on n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s such as kerosene f o r c o o k i n g p u r p o s e s , i n p l a c e of t r a d i t i o n a l ones, and on e l e c t r i c i t y which i s u s u a l l y p e t r o l e u m - b a s e d , f o r expanding demands f o r r e f r i g e r a t i o n , e n t e r t a i n m e n t , and a i r c o n d i t i o n i n g . The consequence of dependence on p e t r o l e u m energy i s made e v i d e n t or m a n i f e s t e d by the a f f e c t s of h i g h o i l p r i c e s w hich were i n p l a c e from 1973 t o 1985. 2.1.1.2 H i g h O i l P r i c e s In 1973/74 the o i l embargo and the subsequent o i l p r i c e f i x i n g by the O r g a n i z a t i o n of P e t r o l e u m E x p o r t i n g C o u n t r i e s (OPEC) l e d t o sharp i n c r e a s e s i n w o r l d o i l t r a d i n g p r i c e s , which p e r s i s t e d on t i l l 1985. For example, the p r i c e of t y p i c a l OPEC crude A r a b i a n l i g h t o i l i n c r e a s e d from U S $ 2 . 4 / b a r r e l i n 1970 t o U S $ 3 5 / b a r r e l i n 1981. R e c u r r e n t s h o r t a g e s of o i l s u p p l y i n 1973/74 and 1979/80, l e d t o a p r o f o u n d and e n d u r i n g energy c r i s i s . The consequences of sharp o i l p r i c e i n c r e a s e s on the w o r l d economies have been f a r r e a c h i n g , but t h e i r g r e a t e s t impact i s f e l t by the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s f o r whom low c o s t o i l i s a c r u c i a l i n g r e d i e n t i n i n d u s t r i a l development (Bach and 16 Mathews, 1979). A f t e r e x p l o r i n g t h i s s i t u a t i o n S i d d i g i and Hein (1977:164) c o n c l u d e t h a t , Many c o u n t r i e s , e s p e c i a l l y i n the T h i r d W o r l d , had t o cu t back on t h e i r i m p o r t s of f u e l s as t h e i r b a l a n c e of payments plunged d e e p l y i n t o the r e d . The r e d u c t i o n i n energy use c o n t r i b u t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y t o economic slowdowns i n the a f f e c t e d c o u n t r i e s . Even i n n a t i o n s which d i d not a c t u a l l y c u t back on o i l i m p o r t s , the r a t e of growth i n energy consumption was a t a l e v e l lower than h i s t o r i c norms, as was the growth i n the economy. W i t h p a r t i c u l a r r e f e r e n c e t o d e v e l o p i n g A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s , Baker (1977:192-193) c o n c u r s w i t h such f i n d i n g s when he n o t e s t h a t , A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s f a c e l a r g e balance-of-payments d e f i c i t s , not o n l y because of the i n c r e a s e d c o s t of o i l , but a l s o as a r e s u l t of the c o n c o m i t a n t r i s e i n the p r i c e of manufactured goods i m p o r t e d from the d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . These d e f i c i t s can o n l y be c o v e r e d by f o r e i g n b o r r o w i n g , and t h i s i n t u r n a g g r a v a t e s the a l r e a d y a c u t e debt problem. To make m a t t e r s worse, the r e c e s s i o n i n Europe and the U n i t e d S t a t e s has reduced the demand f o r A f r i c a n raw m a t e r i a l s , t h e r e b y d e c r e a s i n g t h e i r e x p o r t v a l u e . In a d d i t i o n , many c o u n t r i e s have been p l a g u e d by p r o l o n g e d drought and poor h a r v e s t , and t h i s has n e c e s s i t a t e d the i m p o r t a t i o n of food a t h i g h p r i c e s . A f t e r the 1973-74 sharp o i l p r i c e i n c r e a s e s the combined d e f i c i t of the l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s jumped from US$9 b i l l i o n i n 1973 t o $37 b i l l i o n i n 1975. I t dropped t o $22 b i l l i o n i n 1977 as a r e s u l t of the w o r l d i n d u s t r i a l r e c o v e r y , but i n c r e a s e d t o $27.5 b i l l i o n i n 1979. The e x t e r n a l debt of t h e s e l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s has been i n c r e a s i n g s t e a d i l y , and b o r r o w i n g from banks has been the main so u r c e of f i n a n c e . N e v e r t h e l e s s i t i s becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y d i f f i c u l t f o r many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s t o prove themselves c r e d i t worthy. T a k i n g i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n the i n c r e a s e i n t h e i r n a t i o n a l r e s e r v e s , the net i n d e b t e d n e s s of the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s r o s e from $3 b i l l i o n i n 1974 t o $44 b i l l i o n i n September 1979 ( P e t r o l e u m E c o n o m i s t , 1979a). I n c r e a s e d o i l p r i c e s have p l a c e d a s t r a i n on t r a d i t i o n a l 17 s o u r c e s of energy, such as f i r e w o o d and c h a r c o a l , and have l e d to e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e g r a d a t i o n . D u n k e r l e y e t a l . (1981a:6) d e s c r i b e the p r o c e s s when they say, In the p a s t , as t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s became more \" e x p e n s i v e \" e i t h e r because t h e i r c o l l e c t i o n r e q u i r e d i n c r e a s e d e f f o r t s ( f o r example, l o n g e r d a i l y walks t o f o r a g e f o r f i r e w o o d ) or because they became p a r t l y a p p r o p r i a t e d and c o m m e r c i a l i z e d f o r cash s a l e - they were r e p l a c e d by commercial f u e l s , e s p e c i a l l y f o r c o o k i n g and l i g h t i n g , f i r s t by kerosene and s u b s e q u e n t l y by b o t t l e d gas and e l e c t r i c i t y . W i t h the quantum jumps i n o i l and gas p r i c e s , t h e s e t y p e s of f u e l s u c c e s s i o n have become more c o s t l y , p l a c i n g s t i l l f u r t h e r s t r a i n on t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s . Such s t r a i n s may l e a d t o v i c i o u s c i r c l e s of e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e g r a d a t i o n : the h e i g h t e n e d b u r n i n g of c a t t l e dung and v e g e t a b l e wastes, d e p l e t i n g the s o i l of needed n u t r i e n t s and sometimes a d d i t i o n a l d e f o r e s t a t i o n l e a d i n g t o s o i l e r o s i o n and d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n , f o u l i n g of downstream w a t e r s , and s i l t a t i o n of r e s e r v o i r s . They a l s o l e a d i n some c a s e s t o reduced amounts of c o o k i n g and lower n u t r i t i o n a l s t a n d a r d s . The problems of wood f u e l and o i l a r e complementary, as one s c a r c i t y r e i n f o r c e s the o t h e r . The problem of h i g h o i l p r i c e s a f f e c t s d i f f e r e n t d e v e l o p i n g r e g i o n s i n v a r y i n g ways. As the World Bank (1980a:2) n o t e s , In d e s i g n i n g p o l i c i e s t o h e l p r e s o l v e i t s energy problems, e v e r y c o u n t r y f a c e s a unique s e t of c o n d i t i o n s , i n c l u d i n g i t s l e v e l of income and degree of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n , i t s energy r e s o u r c e endowment, the r e l a t i v e importance of commercial and t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s , i t s degree of dependence on p e t r o l e u m i m p o r t s and o t h e r f a c t o r s . But s i n c e the r i s e i n the p r i c e of p e t r o l e u m , the degree of dependence on p e t r o l e u m i m p o r t s has become the most i m p o r t a n t s i n g l e f a c t o r . For the purposes of t h i s d i s c u s s i o n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e grouped i n t o OPEC members, non-OPEC members which a r e net o i l e x p o r t i n g , and net o i l i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s . H i g h O i l P r i c e s And OPEC W i t h i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d a r e the t h i r t e e n c o u n t r i e s 18 which make up OPEC. Among the l a r g e s t s u p p l i e r s of p e t r o l e u m , t h e s e c o u n t r i e s dominated the c u r r e n t g l o b a l energy scene between 1973 and 1981. OPEC c o n s i s t s of A l g e r i a , Gabon, I r a n , I r a q , K u w a i t , L i b y a , Q a t a r , Saudi A r a b i a , U n i t e d Arab E m i r a t e s , V e n e z u e l a , Ecuador, I n d o n e s i a and N i g e r i a . R e l a t i v e t o o t h e r OPEC n a t i o n s , N i g e r i a and I n d o n e s i a p o s s e s s s m a l l o i l r e s e r v e s . G i v e n the l a r g e p o p u l a t i o n of the s e two c o u n t r i e s , i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t t hey w i l l s u s t a i n b oth l a r g e s c a l e e x p o r t s and s u b s t a n t i a l domestic consumption of p e t r o l e u m i n the next decade u n l e s s s i g n i f i c a n t new d i s c o v e r i e s a r e made or a l t e r n a t e s o u r c e s d e v e l o p e d . Moreover, because the l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of crude o i l produced i s e x p o r t e d t o o b t a i n f o r e i g n exchange, many net o i l e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d e x p e r i e n c e l o c a l s h o r t a g e s of p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s . For example, as Ngoka (1981:116) remarks, A l t h o u g h N i g e r i a produces o i l , v e r y o f t e n , [ s i c ] the c o u n t r y e x p e r i e n c e s s e r i o u s o i l problems. S e v e r a l p e t r o l s t a t i o n s a r e out of s u p p l i e s and m o t o r i s t s spend s e v e r a l hours h u n t i n g f o r f i l l i n g s t a t i o n s w i t h s u p p l i e s . These o f t e n d i s r u p t the economic l i f e of the community. Most peop l e a r e not i n t h e i r o f f i c e s as they may be l o o k i n g f o r f u e l or a r e unable t o get around because of empty p e t r o l t a n k s i n t h e i r c a r s . Moss and Morgan (1981:11) p o i n t out the reasons why o i l r i c h d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s f a c e a domesti c energy c r i s i s : Even o i l r i c h l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s l i k e N i g e r i a f a c e an energy problem because h i g h w o r l d o i l p r i c e s encourage h i g h o i l , kerosene and p e t r o l p r i c e s i n N i g e r i a ... Moreover, l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s have l i m i t e d and o f t e n i n e f f i c i e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n systems which make even l o c a l l y r e f i n e d o i l e x p e n s i v e by the time the p r o d u c t reaches the consumer. T h e i r consumption tends t o be s m a l l and d i s p e r s e d so t h a t the more p r o f i t a b l e and e a s i e r c o u r s e i s t o e x p o r t r a t h e r than t r y t o d e v e l o p the home market, which i s o f t e n a slow and e x p e n s i v e p r o c e s s . H i g h o i l p r i c e s have v a r y i n g impacts on the n a t i o n a l 19 economies of OPEC members. On the one hand, OPEC p r i c e i n c r e a s e s g e n e r a t e , i n a b s o l u t e terms, h i g h o i l revenues f o r the o i l p r o d u c i n g c o u n t r i e s . For i n s t a n c e , t o t a l o i l revenue r e c e i p t s by OPEC members between 1972 and 1977 r e g i s t e r e d an i n c r e a s e of about 790 p e r c e n t , from a p p r o x i m a t e l y US$14 b i l l i o n t o US$128 b i l l i o n . S i n c e t o t a l OPEC e x p o r t s i n c r e a s e d by o n l y f o u r t e e n p e r c e n t , from 25.5 t o 29.1 m i l l i o n b a r r e l s per day, the g e n e r a l surge i n cash f l o w was almost t o t a l l y due t o p r i c e i n c r e a s e s r a t h e r than i n c r e a s e s i n p r o d u c t i o n . These o i l revenues e n a b l e OPEC members t o n o u r i s h and m a i n t a i n economic development of t h e i r c o u n t r i e s . Yet o i l p r i c e i n c r e a s e s a r e accompanied by c o r r e s p o n d i n g i n c r e a s e s i n the p r i c e of goods and s e r v i c e s b e i n g i m p o r t e d by t h e s e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . W i t h i n i n d u s t r i a l i z e d n a t i o n s the h i g h c o s t of imported energy c o n t r i b u t e s t o sha r p i n c r e a s e s i n the p r i c e of manufactured goods which, when imported i n l a r g e q u a n t i t i e s by OPEC members, erode the o i l revenues of thes e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . H i g h energy p r i c e s c o n t r i b u t e t o economic r e c e s s i o n which b e g i n s i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s , t h e r e b y r e d u c i n g the l e v e l of o i l i m p o r t s and, i n t u r n , the income of OPEC members. In a d d i t i o n , h i g h o i l p r i c e s a c c e l e r a t e the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of programs l e a d i n g t o reduced dependence on OPEC f o r w o r l d o i l consumption, as i l l u s t r a t e d i n T a b l e 2.3. In a b s o l u t e terms, OPEC o i l p r o d u c t i o n dropped from 28.8 m i l l i o n i n 1970 - 1979 t o 18 m i l l i o n i n 1982 (see Ta b l e 2.4). Amu (1982a:9-10) demonstrates the c r i t i c a l consequences of h i g h o i l p r i c e s on the OPEC o i l market when he wrote t h a t , U n doubtedly, h i g h o i l p r i c e s have s e t i n motion energy c o n s e r v a t i o n measures, development of TABLE 2.3 OIL PRICE CHANGE, AND OPEC'S OIL AS PERCENT OF WORLD OIL CONSUMPTION TOTAL WORLD YEAR OIL CONSUMPTION MBD PERCENT CHANGE OPEC SUPPLY MBD PERCENT CHANGE POSTED PRICE OF A TYPICAL OPEC CRUDE ARABIAN LIGHT OIL USE/BBL PERCENT CHANGE OPEC'S SUPPLY AS % OF^WORLD'S OIL CONSUMPTION 1967 35.6 6.9 16.8 6.3 2.2 — 47.2 1968 38.9. 9.3 18.7 11.3 2.2 0.0 48.1 1969 42.7 9.8 20.9 11.8 2.2 0.0 48.9 1970 45.7 7.0 23.4 12.0 2.4 9.1 51.2 1971 48.5 6.1 25.3 8.1 3.2 33.3 52.1 1972 51.2 5.6 27.1 7.1 3.4 6.3 52.9 1973 56.0 9.4 31.0 14.4 8.4 157.1 55.4 1974 54.2 -3.2 30.7 -1.0. 11.7 39.3 56.6 1975 53.0 -2.2 27.7 -11.7 13.7 17.1 51.0 1976 57.9 9.2 30.6 12.9 14.0 2.2 52.8 1977 59.9 3.5 31.9 4.2 15.5 10.7 53.3 1978 62.0 3.5 29.1 -8.9 14.9 -3.9 46.9 1979 65.0 5.2 31.0 6.7 33.0 121.5 47.4 1980 60.0 -27.2 25.0 -18.1 44.4 34.5 42.3 1981 56.9 - 4.6 23.0 -9.4 35.0 -21.2 40.4 Sources: OPEC, 1982. OPEC b u l l e t i n . XIII(8). September. Vienna, A u s t r i a . L. AMU, 1982. O i l g l u t and the Nigerian economy. NAPETCOR. 3(4) . pp 3-11. Lagos: Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation. M. Olarunfemi, 1982. Nig e r i a and OPEC. NAPETCOR. 3(2) pp 3-9. Lagos: Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation. 21 TABLE 2.4 OPEC COUNTRIES' AVERAGE DAILY PRODUCTION FROM 1970-1979, AND THE LEVEL OF PRODUCTION QUOTAS IN 1982 Count r y Average P r o d u c t i o n ( 000 B/D) 1970 - 1979 % Share of OPEC P r o d u c t i o n 1982 P r o d u c t i o n Quota ('000 B/D) 1982 P r o d u c t i o n Quotas As % Of Average P r o d u c t i o n A l g e r i a Ecuador Gabon I n d o n e s i a I ran I r a q Kuwait L i b y a N i g e r i a Qatar Saudi A r a b i a U A E V e n e z u e l a N e u t r a l Zone 1,049.5 282.7 188.2 1 ,469.8 4,500.2 2,203.4 2,249.4 1,845.7 1,973.5 ' 482.8 8,459.1 1,688.0 2,528.0 3.63 0.98 0.65 5.08 15.56 7.62 7.78 6.34 6.82 1 .67 29.25 5.84 8.74 650.0 200.0 150.0 1,300.0 1,200.0 1,200.0 650.0 750.0 1,300.0 300.0 7,500.0 1 ,000.0 1,500.0 300.0 18,000.0 61 .9 70.7 79.7 88.4 26.7 54.5 28.9 40.6 65.9 62.1 88.7 59.2 59.3 T o t a l 28,920.3 100.00 62.5 Sou r c e : N a t i o n a l Concord, A p r i l 14, 1982, Lagos, N i g e r i a , p. 4 22 a l t e r n a t i v e energy s o u r c e s such as n u c l e a r , s o l a r energy, and syncrudes such as o i l and gas from c o a l and biomass. In a d d i t i o n , i t has a c c e l e r a t e d the development of h i t h e r t o uneconomic or m a r g i n a l o i l f i e l d s i n non-OPEC a r e a s e.g. B r i t a i n and Norway who p r e v i o u s l y were consumers a r e now e x p o r t e r s i n c o m p e t i t i o n w i t h OPEC o i l . S i m i l a r l y , t he u n c e r t a i n t i e s r e g a r d i n g o i l s u p p l y due t o g e o - p o l i t i c a l s i t u a t i o n i n the M i d d l e E a s t has [ s i c ] l e d t o a massive b u i l d up i n o i l s t o c k s . Thus a s i t u a t i o n of near o i l s h o r t a g e of 1979 was t u r n e d t o one not o n l y of s u r p l u s o i l f l o a t i n g i n the market today but l a t e r t o a p o s s i b l e downward c a s c a d i n g of o i l p r i c e s . There a r e now seven t y o i l p r o d u c i n g c o u n t r i e s i n the w o r l d o n l y t h i r t e e n of which a r e OPEC members. These OPEC c o u n t r i e s c u r r e n t l y account f o r j u s t o n e - t h i r d of t o t a l g l o b a l o i l p r o d u c t i o n , compared t o 53 p e r c e n t of w o r l d o i l p r o d u c t i o n i n 1973, and 48 p e r c e n t i n 1979. Moreover, crude o i l p r i c e s which were about $31 a b a r r e l i n l a t e 1985, now a r e about h a l f t h a t p r i c e . As a r e s u l t , o n l y t h o s e OPEC members which have s p a r s e p o p u l a t i o n and l a r g e f i n a n c i a l r e s e r v e s do not f a c e d i f f i c u l t i e s f i n a n c i n g t h e i r enormous and a m b i t i o u s development p l a n s . The o t h e r s s u f f e r from i n c r e a s i n g d e f i c i t s and e x t e r n a l b o r r o w i n g , e x p e r i e n c e d i f f i c u l t i e s s e r v i c i n g c u r r e n t d e b t s , and a r e v i c t i m s of r i s i n g i n f l a t i o n . The s i t u a t i o n i s compounded by the f a c t t h a t some of those d e b t o r OPEC c o u n t r i e s a r e almost t o t a l l y dependent on o i l e x p o r t s f o r t h e i r f o r e i g n exchange e a r n i n g s . For i n s t a n c e V e n e z u e l a , which i s $35 b i l l i o n i n d e b t , depends on o i l e x p o r t s f o r about 95 p e r c e n t of i t s e x p o r t revenue. N i g e r i a , which i s $10 b i l l i o n i n d e b t , depends on o i l a c c o u n t s f o r about 80 p e r c e n t of i t s f o r e i g n exchange revenue, w h i l e Ecuador, which owes $7 b i l l i o n , r e l i e s on o i l f o r about 45 t o 60 p e r c e n t of i t s e x p o r t e a r n i n g s . Many of the d e b t o r OPEC o i l p r o d u c e r s a l r e a d y were i n near f i n a n c i a l c r i s i s f o l l o w i n g 23 the r e c e s s i o n of the e a r l y 1980s, and the o i l p r i c e f a l l has s e v e r e l y a f f e c t e d them. As a r e s u l t , many OPEC c o u n t r i e s not o n l y l a c k the c a p i t a l f o r o i l e x p l o r a t i o n and development of o t h e r n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy r e s o u r c e s , but now f a c e s t r o n g e r p r e s s u r e s t o e x p o r t r a t h e r than c o n s e r v e t h e i r r a p i d l y d e p l e t i n g p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s because they have s t a k e d t h e i r economic f u t u r e on s a l e s of p e t r o l e u m . Non-OPEC Net O i l E x p o r t i n g D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s There a r e t h i r t e e n c o u n t r i e s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d which a r e not OPEC members but which a r e net o i l e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s . These i n c l u d e A n g o l a , B a h r a i n , B o l i v i a , B r u n e i , Egypt, M a l a y s i a , M e x i c o , S y r i a , T r i n i d a d and Tabago, I v o r y C o a s t , T u n i s i a , Cameroon and Z a i r e . W i t h the e x c e p t i o n of Mexic o , t h e s e c o u n t r i e s have r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l r e s e r v e s of o i l . H i g h o i l p r i c e s have f a c i l i t a t e d e x p l o r a t i o n and development of o i l w i t h i n t h e s e a r e a s , f i n a n c e d t h r o u g h f o r e i g n b o r r o w i n g which i s s e r v i c e d by e a r n i n g s from o i l e x p o r t s . Domestic consumption i s s a c r i f i c e d i n an e f f o r t t o f i n a n c e l o a n s and needed f o r e i g n c u r r e n c y f o r the i m p o r t a t i o n of s k i l l s , equipment and t e c h n o l o g y n e c e s s a r y t o n o u r i s h and m a i n t a i n t h e i r modern economies. In many i n s t a n c e s t h i s group of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s f a c e s problems s i m i l a r t o those e x p e r i e n c e d by OPEC members i n terms of a d j u s t i n g t h e i r economies t o h i g h energy p r i c e s . As i s noted by the World Bank (1980a:3), Most of them need more c a p i t a l than they can p r o v i d e from t h e i r own s a v i n g s . W h i l e t h e i r o i l e x p o r t s l e s s e n the b a l a n c e of payments c o n s t r a i n t , they too must use energy as e f f i c i e n t l y as p o s s i b l e , t o maximize t h e i r 24 e x p o r t e a r n i n g s and t o e x t e n d the p r o d u c t i v e l i f e of t h e i r r e s e r v e s . H i g h e r energy p r i c e s a l s o a f f e c t t h e i r c o m p a r a t i v e advantage, investment r e q u i r e m e n t s and i n t e r s e c t o r a l p r i o r i t i e s . Non-OPEC o i l p r o d u c i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s r e p r e s e n t a s i g n i f i c a n t f o r c e i n the g l o b a l o i l scene. The r e c e n t g l o b a l o i l g l u t , though p a r t l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h slow economic a c t i v i t i e s i n i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s , i s t o a s i g n i f i c a n t degree caused by u n c o n t r o l l e d o i l p r o d u c t i o n and the r e d u c t i o n of o i l p r i c e s by non-OPEC p r o d u c e r s , i n c l u d i n g b oth d e v e l o p e d and nondeveloped n a t i o n s . Today, non-OPEC o i l p r o d u c i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , l i k e many OPEC members, f a c e the t w i n burdens of p l u n g i n g revenue from o i l s a l e s and heavy debt burdens. A l s o s i m i l a r t o OPEC, some of tho s e d e b t o r non-OPEC o i l p r o d u c i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s ' a r e almost e n t i r e l y dependent on o i l f o r f o r e i g n exchange e a r n i n g s . For example, M e x i c o , the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s second l a r g e s t d e b t o r (next t o B r a z i l ) w i t h about $96 b i l l i o n i n l o a n s o u t s t a n d i n g , g e t s about 70 p e r c e n t of i t s \"foreign exchange revenue from o i l s a l e s . For most non-OPEC o i l p r o d u c i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , the p r e s s u r e f o r o i l e x p o r t s , even a t t h e s a c r i f i c e of domestic demands, i s r e l e n t l e s s . Net O i l Importing Developing C o u n t r i e s (NOIDC) O i l i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s c o m p r i s e the l a r g e m a j o r i t y of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , a c c o u n t i n g f o r over f i f t y p e r c e n t of the p o p u l a t i o n , and about f o r t y p e r c e n t of the w o r l d ' s p o p u l a t i o n . E x c l u d i n g C h i n a , t h e i r combined energy consumption i n 1978 was ten m i l l i o n b a r r e l s per day of o i l e q u i v a l e n t , or t e n p e r c e n t of w o r l d consumption (Eden e t a l . , 1981). For the m a j o r i t y of o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , 25 im p o r t e d o i l a c c o u n t s f o r a t l e a s t 75 p e r c e n t of t h e i r n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy consumption. The few e x c e p t i o n s a r e c o u n t r i e s such as I n d i a , C h i n a , Zimbabwe, Kor e a , P a k i s t a n and Zambia which a r e l e s s than 50 p e r c e n t dependent on o i l owing t o e x t e n s i v e use of c o a l , and whose mines were d e v e l o p e d b e f o r e the e r a of cheap o i l (World Bank, 1979a; D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , 1981a). In g e n e r a l , o i l a c c o u n t s f o r over 50 p e r c e n t of t o t a l energy consumed i n net o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , and over 75 p e r c e n t of the o i l consumed i s i m p o r t e d , as i l l u s t r a t e d i n T a b l e 2.5. These o i l i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e poor, populous and, g i v e n t h e i r r e l a t i v e economic weakness, h a r d e s t h i t by h i g h o i l p r i c e s . In a d d i t i o n , they a r e f a c e d w i t h d i f f i c u l t c h o i c e s such as whether t o borrow funds t o pay f o r the crude o i l they need t o m a i n t a i n economic growth. Moreover, t h e i r d i f f i c u l t i e s a r e worsened by the s i m u l t a n e o u s d e c l i n e i n the a b i l i t y of i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s t o purchase t h e i r raw m a t e r i a l s , which a r e g e n e r a l l y the p r i m a r y , i f not the s o l e s o u r c e of f o r e i g n exchange f o r most d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s ( S m i l and Knowland, 1981). I n i t i a l l y i t seemed t h a t o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s were, i n g e n e r a l , making smooth a d j u s t m e n t s t o i n c r e a s i n g energy p r i c e s . A l t h o u g h t h e i r average economic growth r a t e d e c l i n e d from 7 p e r c e n t p r i o r t o 1973 and t o 5 p e r c e n t from 1974 t o 1978, t h i s lower growth r a t e was a c h i e v e d o n l y w i t h h i g h l e v e l s of b o r r o w i n g and r e c y c l e d p e t r o d o l l a r s u r p l u s i n the form of f o r e i g n exchange e a r n i n g s by emigrant workers i n OPEC c o u n t r i e s . A f t e r 1978 i t became i n c r e a s i n g l y 26 TABLE 2.5 NOIDC ENERGY BALANCE, OF OIL 1960 - 1 9 8 0 , EQUIVALENT IN MILLION BD Year T o t a l Energy Consumption O i l N o n - O i l T o t a l 1 Net O i l Imports O i l As % Of T o t a l Energy Net Imports As % Of T o t a l O i l Consumed 1960 1.5 1.3 2.8 1.2 54 80 1970 3.3 ' 2.2 5.5 2.6 60 79 1973 4.2 2.6 6.8 3.5 62 62 1974 4.3 2.7 7.0 3.5 61 81 1975 4.3 2.9 7.2 3.5 60 81 1976 4.4 3.4 7.8 3.5 56 50 1977 4.5 3.9 8.4 3.5 54 78 1980 4.8 5.0 9.8 3.5 49 73 1985 2 5.4 7.1 12.5 3.5 43 65 Source: M. S i d d a y a o . 1979. The O i l - P o o r D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s And U.S. Energy P o l i c y : A P r e l i m i n a r y Assessment. The P h i l i p p i n e Review Of Economics And B u s i n e s s . p. 83-103. V o l . 2, June. p. 91. 1 T r a d i t i o n a l and n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy. 2 E s t i m a t e 27 d i f f i c u l t t o s e c u r e f o r e i g n l o a n s , due t o economic r e c e s s i o n i n the d e v e l o p e d w o r l d , which c o n t r i b u t e d t o h i g h i n t e r e s t r a t e s . The c o n t r a c t s of emigrant workers were c a n c e l l e d i n response t o d e p r e s s e d OPEC o i l s a l e s , and the p o t e n t i a l f o r economic c r i s i s i n o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s became o b v i o u s . Siddayao (1979:91) e x p l o r e s the impacts of h i g h o i l p r i c e s on the economies of net o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , and e x p l a i n s t h a t , The impact of w o r l d o i l p r i c e i n c r e a s e s on an NOILDC's b a l a n c e of payments (BOP) may be grouped i n t o t h o s e t h a t a r e d i r e c t and tho s e t h a t a r e i n d i r e c t . The d i r e c t impact i s the f o r e i g n exchange l o s s e s from the h i g h e r o i l p r i c e s , i . e . , the e f f e c t on a c o u n t r y ' s c u r r e n t a c c o u n t . The i n d i r e c t BOP impact i s f e l t by a c o u n t r y s u f f e r i n g from h i g h e r c o s t s of e n e r g y - i n t e n s i v e p r o d u c e r goods. Sources such as Eden et a l . , ( 1981), D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , (1981b) the World Bank (1979a) and Siddayao (1979) i n d i c a t e t h a t the ag g r e g a t e f i n a n c i a l i n d e b t e d n e s s of net o i l i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s has d o u b l e d , and t h e i r c u r r e n t account d e f i c i t s have t r i p l e d . T h i s i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n Ta b l e 2.6. A l t h o u g h i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o de t e r m i n e how much of the i n c r e a s e i n the d e f i c i t s of net o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s caused by OPEC o i l p r i c e i n c r e a s e s , s o u r c e s such as the World Bank ( 1 9 7 9 a : l ) i n d i c a t e t h a t , E s t i m a t e s by OECD, C i t i B a n k and UNCIAD have put the d e t e r i o r a t i o n of the OIDC [ O i l I m p o r t i n g D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s ] t r a d e account due t o OPEC p r i c e i n c r e a s e s a t $20.3 b i l l i o n , $20 b i l l i o n and $40.8 b i l l i o n r e s p e c t i v e l y ... T h i s s o u r c e c o n c l u d e s t h a t 40 t o 60 p e r c e n t of the r i s e i n the ag g r e g a t e i n d e b t e d n e s s of OIDC members between 1973 and 1978 was due t o the OPEC p r i c e r i s e . Today the p l i g h t of the m a j o r i t y of net o i l i m p o r t i n g 28 TABLE 2.6 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS, NET OIL IMPORTING DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 1973 - 1978 $BILLION Year 94 NOIDC A l l NOIDC 1973 -10.8 -9.4 1974 -30.0 -39.0 1975 -38.0 -49.0 1976 -28.0 -41.0 1977 -29.0 -21 .2 1978 -31 .3 Source: M. Sid d a y a o . 1979. The O i l - P o o r D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s And U.S. Energy P o l i c y : A P r e l i m i n a r y Assessment. The P h i l i p p i n e Review Of Economics And B u s i n e s s . p. 83-103. V o l . V X I , No. 2, June. p. 93. 29 c o u n t r i e s i s one of m u l t i p l e d e f a u l t s , emergency debt r e s c h e d u l i n g , t i g h t c r e d i t l i n e s , d e f i c i t s , r e s t r i c t e d l a t i t u d e f o r d e a l i n g w i t h domestic economic p o l i c y , and slow economic growth. There i s a c h a i n r e a c t i o n of a c c e l e r a t e d i n f l a t i o n accompanied by domestic s h o r t a g e s of consumer goods. The c u r r e n t f a l l i n o i l p r i c e s n a t u r a l l y b e n e f i t s the net o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , by f r e e i n g f o r e i g n exchange f o r spending on o t h e r a r e a s such as debt payments, c a p i t a l improvements and economic growth programs. At the same t i m e , cheap o i l h e l p s t o promote the p o t e n t i a l f o r dependence by thes e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s on f i n i t e p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s and su p p r e s s i n t e r e s t s i n the s e a r c h f o r a l t e r n a t e new energy o p t i o n s . Even i f economic d i f f i c u l t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h h i g h p r i c e s of o i l were t o l e s s e n , the problem of the p o t e n t i a l f o r huge dependence on p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s by d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s compounded by t h r e e o t h e r f a c t o r s . F i r s t , t h e r e a r e l i m i t e d g l o b a l o i l r e s o u r c e s , and many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s do not have domestic s t o c k s of petroleum-based energy r e s o u r c e s . Second, t h e r e a r e numerous c o n s t r a i n t s t o p r o v i d e a l t e r n a t e energy s u p p l i e s from o t h e r n o n t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of energy i n c l u d i n g n a t u r a l gas, n u c l e a r , hydro, heavy o i l , t a r sands and o i l s h a l e r e s o u r c e s . T h i r d , many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s - p a r t i c u l a r l y t h o s e i n the net o i l i m p o r t i n g c a t e g o r i e s - a r e e x p e r i e n c i n g s e r i o u s s h o r t a g e s of t r a d i t i o n a l f o r e s t energy r e s o u r c e s . As a r e s u l t of t h e s e f a c t o r s t h e r e a r e numerous a t t e m p t s t o p r o v i d e a l t e r n a t e new energy s u p p l i e s from domestic renewable s o u r c e s such as s o l a r and b i o g a s . 30 2.1.2 Sources Of N o n t r a d i t i o n a l Energy And S u p p l y C o n s t r a i n t s I n D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s That t h e r e a r e l i m i t s t o r e s o u r c e s i s o b v i o u s ; where the s e l i m i t s a r e i s the q u e s t i o n t h a t remains unanswered ( F o l e y , 1981:54). The e x t e n t of g l o b a l energy r e s o u r c e s has been the t o p i c of ongoing debate, p a r t i c u l a r l y t h a t of f o s s i l f u e l s . Mancke (1974) a s s e r t s t h a t the e a r t h ' s r e m a i n i n g s u p p l i e s of known p e t r o l e u m a r e enormous and s t i l l g r o w i n g , but IIASA (1981) c a u t i o n s t h a t t a k i n g advantage of t h i s abundance can be n e i t h e r q u i c k or cheap. In o t h e r words, a l t h o u g h s u p p l i e s may be abundant, they a r e not n e c e s s a r i l y a c c e s s i b l e . The WAES Report (1977) c o n c l u d e s t h a t t h e r e may be a s h o r t a g e as e a r l y as the decade b e g i n n i n g i n 1985 of e a s i l y a c c e s s i b l e f o s s i l f u e l s which can be e c o n o m i c a l l y r e c o v e r e d . Rahmer (1983:329), i n an a r t i c l e s u b t i t l e d \"Warning On Crude O i l R e s e r v e s \" r e p o r t s t h a t , The assessment of World Crude O i l R e serves and Resources p r e p a r e d by t h r e e American e x p e r t s - M e s s r s . M a s t e r s , Root and Dietzman - f o r t h i s y e a r ' s e l e v e n t h w o r l d p e t r o l e u m c o n g r e s s l e a v e s l i t t l e room f o r complacency. The a u t h o r s s p e c i f i c a l l y warn t h a t i t would not be prudent t o a n t i c i p a t e r i c h e s from a r e a s which have not y e t been p r o p e r l y t e s t e d , and t h a t the need f o r a l t e r n a t i v e energy r e s o u r c e s c o u l d become i n c r e a s i n g l y c r i t i c a l f o r most c o u n t r i e s . \"There i s an immense q u a n t i t y of c o n v e n t i o n a l crude o i l i n the w o r l d , \" they s t a t e , \"but our c a p a c i t y f o r consumption, however, i s p e r f e c t l y c a p a b l e of c h a l l e n g i n g t h i s immensity.\" The q u e s t i o n of a c c e s s i b i l i t y r e v o l v e s around s o c i a l , economic, t e c h n i c a l , and e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . The degree of t h e s e c o n s t r a i n t s v a r i e s from r e g i o n t o r e g i o n . W h i l e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s seem w i l l i n g t o t r a d e the \" p o l l u t i o n of p o v e r t y \" f o r the \" p o l l u t i o n of a f f l u e n c e \" , they f i n d t h emselves t i g h t l y bound by t e c h n i c a l and economic c o n s t r a i n t s . 31 2 . 1 . 2 . 1 P e t r o l e u m O i l E s t i m a t e s of u l t i m a t e l y r e c o v e r a b l e w o r l d o i l r e s o u r c e s a r e u n c e r t a i n b u t , as F o l e y (1981:131) p o i n t s o u t , \"A prudent c o u r s e a t the moment i s t o assume t h a t the g e n e r a l l y a c c e p t e d f i g u r e of 2,000 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s i s the more l i k e l y t o be r i g h t . \" T h i s e s t i m a t e was a r r i v e d a t by a v a r i e t y of r e s e a r c h e r s , u s i n g d i f f e r e n t a pproaches. T h i s i s i l l u s t r a t e d i n T a b l e 2.7. Of the t o t a l 2000 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s (274 b i l l i o n t o n n e s ) , 401.46 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s (55 b i l l i o n tonnes) have a l r e a d y been consumed. Proven r e s e r v e s r e p r e s e n t 642.34 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s (88 b i l l i o n t o n n e s ) , w h i l e 956.20 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s (131 b i l l i o n tonnes) i s the amount e s t i m a t e d t o y e t be d i s c o v e r e d ( F o l e y , 1 9 8 1 ) . S i m i l a r e s t i m a t e s of 640 and 645.85 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s of w o r l d proven p e t r o l e u m o i l r e s e r v e s have been made by the World Bank (1980a) and Energy, M i n e s , Resources Canada (1979) r e s p e c t i v e l y . P e t r o l e u m o i l s u p p l i e s a r e c o n c e n t r a t e d i n c o u n t r i e s which a r e members of OPEC. These c o u n t r i e s h o l d more than 40 p e r c e n t of e s t i m a t e d r e c o v e r a b l e o i l r e s e r v e s , 70 p e r c e n t of c u r r e n t proven w o r l d r e s e r v e s , and 80 p e r c e n t of o i l r e s e r v e s i n the noncommunist w o r l d (Eden et a l . , 1981). Proven r e s e r v e s i n non-OPEC net o i l e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d a r e s m a l l , a c c o u n t i n g f o r o n l y about 7 p e r c e n t of w o r l d proven r e s e r v e s . Net o i l i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d a r e the s i t e of about one p e r c e n t of w o r l d proven r e s e r v e s , or n i n e b i l l i o n b a r r e l s (World Bank, 1980a). However, s o u r c e s i n d i c a t e t h a t a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of new a d d i t i o n s t o g l o b a l o i l r e s e r v e s w i l l come from net o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . D u n k e r l e y e t a l . ( 1 9 8 1 b : 2 1 ) , f o r example, i n v e s t i g a t e p r o s p e c t s 32 TABLE 2.7 ESTIMATES OF ULTIMATE WORLD RESOURCES OF CONVENTIONAL OIL Year Source In 10 9 B a r r e l s 1942 P r a t t , Weeks and S t e b i n g e r 600 1946 Duce 400 1946 Pogue 555 1948 Weeks 610 1949 Le v o r s e n 1500 1949 Weeks 1010 1953 MacNaughton 1000 1956 Hubbert 1250 1958 Weeks 1500 1959 Weeks 2000 1965 H e n d r i c k s (USGS) 2480 1967 Tyman (ESSO) 2090 1968 S h e l l 1800 1968 Weeks 2200 1969 Hubbert 1350-2100 1970 Moody ( M o b i l ) 1800 1971 Warman (BP) 1200-2000 1972 Weeks 2290 1975 Moody and G e i g e r 2000 1977 D e s p r a i r i e s (WEC)-Delphi 1280-2560 1978 Nehr i n g 2025 S o u r c e s : R. Eden e t a l . 1981. Energy Economics, Growth, Resources And P o l i c i e s , Cambridge: Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s . G. F o l e y . 1981. The Energy Q u e s t i o n , 2nd E d i t i o n . New York: Penguin Books. p. 130. 33 f o r d i s c o v e r y and development of a d d i t i o n a l o i l and gas r e s o u r c e s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s and f i n d t h a t , A p p r o x i m a t e l y 600 sedi m e n t a r y b a s i n s have been i d e n t i f i e d t hroughout the w o r l d w i t h p o t e n t i a l f o r o i l or gas d i s c o v e r i e s . About 400 of t h e s e have had some d r i l l i n g t o d a t e . The 200 b a s i n s which have not been e x p l o r e d a r e m o s t l y l o c a t e d i n a r e a s where development of o i l and gas r e s o u r c e s would be h i g h - c o s t , such as the A r t i e and deep o f f shore a r e a s , and c o n t i n e n t a l i n t e r i o r s such as the mid-upper Amazon and c e n t r a l A f r i c a . Many of the b a s i n s which remain t o be e x p l o r e d a r e i n LDGs [ l e s s d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s ] . A study conducted f o r the World Bank of o i l and gas p r o s p e c t s i n s e v e n t y LDCs c o n c l u d e d t h a t of the ten n o n o i l p r o d u c e r s w i t h known r e s e r v e s , s i x had \"v e r y h i g h \" or \" h i g h \" p o t e n t i a l r e s e r v e s (over 750 m i l l i o n b a r r e l s ) and f o u r had \" f a i r \" or \"low\" p o t e n t i a l r e s e r v e s ( l e s s than 750 m i l l i o n b a r r e l s ) . Of the f o r t y - f i v e n o n o i l p r o d u c e r s w i t h o u t d i s c o v e r i e s t o d a t e , f i v e had \"v e r y h i g h \" or \" h i g h \" p o t e n t i a l r e s e r v e s , and f o r t y had \" f a i r \" or \"low\" p o t e n t i a l r e s e r v e s . F u r t h e r , t h i s a u t h o r i n d i c a t e s t h a t s u b s t a n t i a l i n c r e a s e s i n o i l p r o d u c t i o n i n a number of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e p o s s i b l e , and e x p e c t s t h a t such w i l l s i g n i f i c a n t l y m i n i m i z e the burden of o i l i m p o r t s f o r these c o u n t r i e s . However, the r e a l i z a t i o n of t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y w i l l be s u b j e c t e d t o the a v a i l a b i l i t y of c a p i t a l and s k i l l e d p e r s o n n e l f o r v i g o r o u s o i l e x p l o r a t i o n and development programs, and i n v o l v e s h i g h i n v e s t m e n t r i s k s . A c c o r d i n g t o the World Bank (1979a:37), The r i s k s of p e t r o l e u m e x p l o r a t i o n a r e h i g h . Only one i n e i g h t t o one i n t h i r t e e n e x p l o r a t o r y w e l l s a r e s u c c e s s f u l i n d i s c o v e r i n g a f i e l d , depending on the a r e a ... an a r e a can go th r o u g h two or t h r e e phases of e x p l o r a t o r y a c t i v i t y over a p e r i o d of 20 y e a r s w i t h o u t any commercial a c c u m u l a t i o n of o i l or gas b e i n g found. U n p r e d i c t a b l e i d e o l o g i c a l s h i f t s , d e l a y s , demands f o r k i c k b a c k s , and a g e n e r a l l a c k of i n f r a s t r u c t u r e and su p p o r t s e r v i c e s c h a r a c t e r i z e the b u s i n e s s environment of a l a r g e number of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . D e s p i t e s u b s t a n t i a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s which e x i s t i n these c o u n t r i e s , the u n f a v o u r a b l e investment 34 c l i m a t e d i s c o u r a g e s f u r t h e r e x p l o r a t i o n . The World Bank (1979a:15) c l a i m s t h a t , E x p l o r a t o r y a c t i v i t y f o r o i l and gas has been d e c l i n i n g i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i n r e c e n t y e a r s , d e s p i t e the economic a t t r a c t i o n of d e v e l o p i n g new p r o d u c t i o n a t p r e s e n t p r i c e s . In p a r t t h i s i s a t t r i b u t a b l e t o p o l i t i c a l and economic c o n d i t i o n s u n a t t r a c t i v e t o p r i v a t e c a p i t a l , which f o r m e r l y undertook the b u l k of e x p l o r a t o r y a c t i v i t y , and which have caused a d e c l i n e i n p r i v a t e investment i n e x p l o r a t i o n . T h i s d e c l i n e i n p r i v a t e investment i n p e t r o l e u m e x p l o r a t i o n has been l e f t uncompensated by p u b l i c i n v e s t m e n t , so t h a t i n many c a s e s o i l p r o d u c t i o n may s t a r t t o d e c l i n e w i t h i n the next few y e a r s . Moreover, most d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s l a c k the r e f i n e r i e s n e c e s s a r y t o break down crude o i l i n t o u s a b l e p r o d u c t s such as kerosene and p e t r o l . F u r t h e r m o r e , i n e f f i c i e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n systems and i n f r a s t r u c t u r e r e s t r i c t s u p p l i e s t o a v e r y few c e n t r e s (Moss and Morgan, 1981). G i v e n the above c i r c u m s t a n c e s , the n a t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n and s u p p l y d e c l i n e , combined w i t h r a p i d i n c r e a s e s i n demands f o r p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s , may l e a d t o s u p p l y s h o r t a g e s and e v e n t u a l l y t o a r e s u r g e n c e of h i g h o i l p r i c e s i n the w o r l d o i l market. For example, IIASA (1981:31) n o t e s t h a t , ... even w i t h v i g o r o u s c o n s e r v a t i o n measures i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d r e g i o n s , i n c r e a s i n g needs f o r ' l i q u i d f u e l s t h r o u g h out the w o r l d may, over the next f i v e decades exceed the c a p a b i l i t i e s of the g l o b a l energy s u p p l y . On the s u b j e c t of the p r e s e n t o i l g l u t , Morgan (1983:71) remarks t h a t , ... on p r e s e n t e v i d e n c e the o i l g l u t may not l a s t l o n g and a g e n e r a l s i t u a t i o n of s u p p l y b e i n g s h o r t of demand seems l i k e l y over the next 30 - 40 y e a r s . 2.1*2.2 Heavy O i l And Tar Sands Heavy o i l i s a low q u a l i t y o i l , i n the range of 10° t o 20° A P I . I t s v i s c o s i t y i s h i g h . 35 Tar sands a r e an extreme type of heavy o i l . I n g e n e r a l , t a r sands r e f e r t o sands or sand s t o n e s impregnated w i t h heavy immobile or h i g h l y v i s c o u s o i l which i s exposed a t the s u r f a c e of the e a r t h or c o v e r e d by o v e r b u r d e n . Tar sands have l e s s than 10° API, w i t h s p e c i f i c g r a v i t y h e a v i e r than w a t e r . G l o b a l d e p o s i t s of heavy o i l and t a r sands a r e c u r r e n t l y e s t i m a t e d a t t h r e e t r i l l i o n b a r r e l s of o i l (World Bank, 1980a; F o l e y , 1981). They o c c u r i n a number of c o u n t r i e s , w i t h the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d a c c o u n t i n g f o r 72 p e r c e n t of known d e p o s i t s . Of t o t a l d e p o s i t s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , 99.2 p e r c e n t a r e l o c a t e d i n OPEC c o u n t r i e s , w h i l e non-OPEC net e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s account f o r j u s t 0.5 p e r c e n t , and net o i l i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e the s i t e of 0.3 p e r c e n t . However, d e p o s i t s of heavy o i l and t a r sands i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d have not been f u l l y e v a l u a t e d . Only f i v e t o t e n p e r c e n t of t o t a l r e s o u r c e s of heavy o i l and t a r sands i s e a s i l y a c c e s s i b l e from the s u r f a c e and, hence, r e c o v e r a b l e u s i n g methods which a r e c u r r e n t l y a v a i l a b l e ( F o l e y , 1981). T o t a l r e c o v e r a b l e r e s e r v e s a r e t h e r e f o r e e s t i m a t e d a t 450 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s of crude o i l , about the same q u a n t i t y as known c o n v e n t i o n a l o i l r e s e r v e s i n the M i d d l e E a s t ( F o l e y , 1981; World Bank, 1980a). However, commercial e x p l o i t a t i o n of heavy o i l and t a r sands r e s e r v e s i s c u r r e n t l y r e s t r i c t e d because the o i l i s d i f f i c u l t t o e x t r a c t . About two tonnes of m a t e r i a l must be mined t o produce a b a r r e l of o i l ( F o l e y , 1981). Investment c o s t s and t e c h n i c a l demands a r e h i g h . The World Bank (1980a) e s t i m a t e s t h a t o i l from t h e s e n o n - c o n v e n t i o n a l s o u r c e s w i l l make 36 o n l y a s m a l l c o n t r i b u t i o n of 200,000 b a r r e l s per day of s u p p l y t o the o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i n the l a t t e r p a r t of the 1980s. 2.3 O i l Shale O i l s h a l e i s found i n many p a r t of the w o r l d , and r e f e r s t o f i n e g r a i n e d (or t e x t u r e d ) s e d i m e n t a r y r o c k s c o n t a i n i n g the s o l i d o r g a n i c m a t e r i a l c a l l e d kerogen, which on h e a t i n g t o 300°C t o 400°C d i s i n t e g r a t e s i n t o o i l or gas t h a t can be e x t r a c t e d . O i l s h a l e r e s o u r c e s a r e c l a s s i f i e d i n terms of the amount of o i l t h a t can be o b t a i n e d by h e a t i n g one ton of s h a l e . Those t h a t y i e l d 25 t o 100 U.S. g a l l o n s of o i l per ton of s h a l e a r e c o n s i d e r e d the r i c h e s t s h a l e s , f o l l o w e d by those t h a t y i e l d 10 t o 25 g a l l o n s per t o n , w i t h those y i e l d i n g j u s t 5 t o 10 g a l l o n s per t o n b e i n g the p o o r e s t q u a l i t y s h a l e s . E s t i m a t e s of t o t a l r e c o v e r a b l e o i l s h a l e r e s o u r c e s which y i e l d t e n or more U.S. g a l l o n s per t o n of s h a l e a r e 3264 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s of o i l . T h i s , a c c o r d i n g t o the World Bank (1980a) r e p r e s e n t s the be s t e s t i m a t e which can be made from a v a i l a b l e l i t e r a t u r e . The l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of t h i s r e s o u r c e i s i n the noncommunist i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d , which a c c o u n t s f o r 68 p e r c e n t of known r e s o u r c e s . The d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d a c c o u n t s f o r o n l y about 29 p e r c e n t of known w o r l d d e p o s i t s of o i l s h a l e , and 89 p e r c e n t of t h i s p o r t i o n i s found i n net o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . C u r r e n t l y , no such d e p o s i t s have been i d e n t i f i e d i n OPEC c o u n t r i e s of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . The r e m a i n i n g e l e v e n p e r c e n t a r e l o c a t e d i n non-OPEC net e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s . 37 W h i l e the magnitude of known r e c o v e r a b l e o i l s h a l e r e s o u r c e s measured i n terms of c o n v e n t i o n a l o i l r e s o u r c e s i s immense, the amount which i s e c o n o m i c a l l y e x p l o i t a b l e i s v e r y s m a l l and i s found p r i m a r i l y i n c o u n t r i e s of the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d . As F o l e y (1981:151) n o t e s , I t i s now f e l t t h a t o n l y those o i l s h a l e s w i t h an o i l c o n t e n t above 25 g a l l o n s per tonne w i l l ever be economic. T h i s reduces the s i z e of the p o t e n t i a l r e s e r v e s by a f a c t o r of a thousand. At the 1978 World Energy Conference i t was e s t i m a t e d t h a t the r e c o v e r a b l e o i l from t h e s e r e s o u r c e s was about 1500 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s - about 90 p e r c e n t of i t i n the U.S. The t o t a l i s t h u s somewhat l e s s than c o n v e n t i o n a l crude o i l . And of t h a t o n l y 5-10 p e r c e n t can \"be c o n s i d e r e d f o r immediate e x p l o i t a t i o n \" . On t h i s b a s i s , c u r r e n t w o r l d r e c o v e r a b l e o i l s h a l e r e s e r v e s t o t a l between 75 t o 150 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s of o i l . But o i l e x t r a c t i o n from s h a l e on a commercial b a s i s does not c u r r e n t l y e x i s t . M i n i n g and p r o c e s s i n g expenses r e p r e s e n t a l a r g e p a r t of the t o t a l c o s t of p r o d u c i n g p e t r o l e u m from s h a l e , and c u r r e n t l y c o n s t i t u t e the major c o n s t r a i n t t o p r o d u c t i o n . As noted by Eden et a l . (1*981 :89) , The p r i n c i p a l o b s t a c l e s t o c o n v e n t i o n a l s u r f a c e r e t o r t i n g of s h a l e a r e i t s h i g h c o s t , the energy consumed, the consumption of water ( i n r e g i o n s w i t h water s c a r c i t y , . . . ) , and the d i s p o s a l of waste p r o d u c t s . I n - s i t u combustion would reduce the problems of water and waste d i s p o s a l , but t h i s has not y e t been d e v e l o p e d s u f f i c i e n t l y f o r commercial o p e r a t i o n . W i t h p a r t i c u l a r r e f e r e n c e t o d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , the World Bank (1980a) p o i n t s out t h a t the h i g h t e c h n o l o g y , c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e t e c h n i q u e s b e i n g used i n the U.S. may not be a p p r o p r i a t e as models. G i v e n the magnitude of o b s t a c l e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h o i l s h a l e p r o d u c t i o n , i t i s not s u r p r i s i n g t h a t F o l e y (1981) c o n c l u d e s t h a t s h a l e o i l does not l o o k a t a l l p r o m i s i n g as an energy 38 r e s o u r c e . Hubbert ( 1 9 6 9 ) i s even more p e s s i m i s t i c , c o n t e n d i n g t h a t the o r g a n i c c o n t e n t s of carbonaceous s h a l e appear t o be more p r o m i s i n g as a r e s o u r c e of raw m a t e r i a l f o r the c h e m i c a l i n d u s t r y than as a major source of i n d u s t r i a l energy. C u r r e n t l y , the o n l y p i l o t p l a n t f o r o i l e x t r a c t i o n from s h a l e i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i s i n B r a z i l . 2.1.2.4 N a t u r a l Gas E s t i m a t e s of p o t e n t i a l n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s and r e s e r v e s have changed, and have been b u i l d i n g up w i t h t i m e . As F o l e y (1981:141) remarks, The e s t i m a t i o n of the w o r l d ' s u l t i m a t e l y r e c o v e r a b l e r e s e r v e s of n a t u r a l gas i s s u b j e c t t o even g r e a t e r u n c e r t a i n t i e s than t h a t of o i l . W h i l e numerous e s t i m a t e s have been made over the pa s t twenty y e a r s no c l e a r convergence on a s i n g l e f i g u r e , as i n the case of o i l , i s a p p a r e n t . The World Bank (1980a:27) c a u t i o n s t h a t , U n t i l r e c e n t l y gas d i s c o v e r i e s o u t s i d e the U.S., Western Europe and the USSR have not been f u l l y e v a l u a t e d , and the r e s e r v e e s t i m a t e s s h o u l d be t r e a t e d w i t h c a u t i o n . Over the p a s t 10 y e a r s a d d i t i o n s t o gas r e s e r v e s have been e q u i v a l e n t t o a d d i t i o n s t o o i l r e s e r v e s (about 290 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s ) and on average t w i c e the l e v e l of gas consumption. A v a i l a b l e s o u r c e s i n d i c a t e t h a t n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s a r e s u b s t a n t i a l , and t h a t the r e s e r v e s a r e growing. Hubbert (1969) s u g g e s t s a f i g u r e of about 340,000 b i l l i o n c u b i c m e t r e s , which i s e q u i v a l e n t t o e s t i m a t e s of the w o r l d ' s u l t i m a t e l y r e c o v e r a b l e o i l r e s e r v e s of 2000 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s ( F o l e y , 1981). S i m i l a r e s t i m a t e s from a v a r i e t y of s o u r c e s i n d i c a t e an o p t i m i s m t h a t t h e r e c u r r e n t l y e x i s t l a r g e endowments of n a t u r a l gas i n the w o r l d , w i t h growing new d i s c o v e r i e s (McCormick e t a l . , 1978; World Energy C o n f e r e n c e , 1978b; World Bank, 1980a). As Hough 39 (1983a:293) p u t s i t , I t i s apparent t h a t w o r l d gas r e s e r v e s have been b u i l d i n g up i n r e c e n t y e a r s a t a r a t e t h a t o u t s t r i p s c ommercial p r o d u c t i o n , and t h i s may remain t r u e f o r the f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e . Simple r e s e r v e s t o p r o d u c t i o n r a t i o s f o r gas ... and r e l a t i v e l y s t a t i c or d w i n d l i n g o i l r e s e r v e s i n d i c a t e t h a t , w i t h the e x c e p t i o n of a number of i m p o r t a n t i n d i v i d u a l c o u n t r i e s , the w o r l d ' s n a t u r a l gas ought t o l a s t t w i c e as l o n g as i t s o i l . About 45 p e r c e n t of c u r r e n t l y proven w o r l d r e s e r v e s of n a t u r a l gas a r e found i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . Of t h e s e about 76 p e r c e n t a r e c o n c e n t r a t e d i n OPEC c o u n t r i e s , 15 p e r c e n t i n non-OPEC net o i l e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , and 9 p e r c e n t i n net o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . S i n c e most proven gas r e s e r v e s e x i s t i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h crude o i l r e s e r v e s , i t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t the l a r g e s t p o r t i o n of gas r e s e r v e s w i l l come from net o i l e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . N e v e r t h e l e s s , the m a j o r i t y of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , as w e l l as d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s which a r e not endowed w i t h e c o n o m i c a l l y e x p l o i t a b l e n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s , f a c e s e r i o u s doubts t h a t they w i l l be a b l e t o reduce t h e i r d o m e s t i c energy problems t h r o u g h gas i m p o r t s . The foremost reason f o r t h e i r c o n c e r n i s t h a t i n c o n t r a s t t o o i l , most of the w o r l d ' s n a t u r a l gas which i s b e i n g u t i l i z e d i s consumed by the c o u n t r i e s i n which i t i s produced. F u r t h e r m o r e , as F o l e y (1981:143) p o i n t s out i n h i s d i s c u s s i o n of n a t u r a l gas, I t i s d i f f i c u l t t o t r a n s p o r t and d i s t r i b u t e . F o r l a r g e - s c a l e use i t r e q u i r e s a network of underground p i p e s connected t o e v e r y consumer. To e s t a b l i s h such a system from s c r a t c h i s a l o n g and e x p e n s i v e u n d e r t a k i n g . I t can o n l y be j u s t i f i e d i f a c o u n t r y has i t s gas s u p p l i e s under i t s own c o n t r o l or i s c o n f i d e n t of the g o o d w i l l and p o l i t i c a l s t a b i l i t y of p o t e n t i a l s u p p l i e r s and the c o u n t r i e s t h r o u g h which s u p p l y p i p e l i n e s must pa s s. These c o n s t r a i n t s t o the l a r g e s c a l e e x p o r t of n a t u r a l gas a r e 4 0 e x a c e r b a t e d by the f a c t t h a t the l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of the w o r l d ' s proven r e s e r v e s a r e l o c a t e d w i t h i n o n l y two c o u n t r i e s -the U.S.S.R. and I r a n - which t o g e t h e r account f o r about 52 p e r c e n t of t o t a l proven w o r l d r e s e r v e s . These c o u n t r i e s a r e p o p u l o u s , w i t h growing domestic demand which i s l i k e l y t o l i m i t e x p o r t s . Moreover, th e s e c o u n t r i e s a r e l i k e l y t o l i m i t p r o d u c t i o n t o l e v e l s which w i l l earn them income which i s o n l y enough t o s e r v e t h e i r own development needs, and keep e x p o r t s u r p l u s e s t o a minimum. There a r e o t h e r f a c t o r s which l i m i t p r o s p e c t s f o r l a r g e i n t e r n a t i o n a l gas s u p p l i e s . For i n s t a n c e i n R u s s i a , which a c c o u n t s f o r over 39 p e r c e n t of the w o r l d ' s proven r e s e r v e s , most of the d e p o s i t s a r e i n a r e a s of Western S i b e r i a which a r e h a r d l y a c c e s s i b l e . P r o d u c t i o n i n t h e s e l o c a t i o n s i s c o s t l y and time consuming, as i s t r a n s p o r t t o e x p o r t m arkets. T h i s c o s t i s u l t i m a t e l y passed on t o the consumers, and w i l l n a t u r a l l y r e q u i r e h i g h e x p o r t p r i c e s and s t a b l e markets, or a s s u r e d r a t e s of r e t u r n , i f development i s t o be j u s t i f i e d . The World Bank (1980a:26) i d e n t i f i e s some of the c o n s t r a i n t s t o gas development i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , p o i n t i n g out t h a t , Gas development f o r do m e s t i c use i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s has a l s o been l i m i t e d because markets have r a r e l y been s u f f i c i e n t l y l a r g e and c o n c e n t r a t e d t o absorb the h i g h c o s t of p i p e l i n e s and d i s t r i b u t i o n f a c i l i t i e s and hence make gas c o m p e t i t i v e w i t h o i l p r o d u c t s ( m a i n l y f u e l o i l ) . T h e r e f o r e , where no ready l o c a l market e x i s t e d , a s s o c i a t e d gas has u s u a l l y been f l a r e d and n o n a s s o c i a t e d gas d i s c o v e r i e s have not been d e v e l o p e d . Eden et a l . (1981:94-95) p r o v i d e a comprehensive summary and e v a l u a t i o n of the p o l i c y o p t i o n s open t o c o u n t r i e s which produce n a t u r a l gas but which do not have l a r g e domestic demand. A c c o r d i n g t o t h e s e a u t h o r s , 41 E x p o r t by p i p e l i n e may be f e a s i b l e , as w i t h I r a n t o the USSR and hence t o E a s t e r n or Western Europe, or Mexico t o the US. LNG t r a d e c o u l d be d e v e l o p e d , though payments t o p r o d u c e r s a r e s e v e r e l y reduced from the d e l i v e r e d p r i c e of gas by the h i g h t r a n s p o r t c o s t s . A l o c a l consumer network c o u l d be b u i l t up, though i n a d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y w i t h l a r g e r e s e r v e s i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t t h i s c o u l d take a major share of the p o t e n t i a l s u p p l y . The gas c o u l d be used t o d e v e l o p a l o c a l c h e m i c a l s and p e t r o c h e m i c a l s i n d u s t r y , f o r e x p o r t of f e r t i l i z e r s and \" i n t e r m e d i a t e s \" f o r f u r t h e r use i n p e t r o c h e m i c a l s . T h i s would depend on whether the c o s t advantage on f e e d s t o c k s would be s u f f i c i e n t f o r a newly d e v e l o p e d i n d u s t r y t o compete w i t h the h i g h l y e f f i c i e n t p e t r o c h e m i c a l s companies i n de v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . The c o s t d i s a d v a n t a g e s i n t r a n s p o r t i n g gas means t h a t n a t u r a l gas i n a p r o d u c i n g c o u n t r y p r o v i d e s the cheapest f u e l f o r e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n . I f a gas f i e l d i s remote from p o s s i b l e consumers i t may be d e s i r a b l e t o use the gas t o g e n e r a t e e l e c t r i c i t y where the gas i s co-produced w i t h o i l and would o t h e r w i s e be f l a r e d . A major p o s s i b i l i t y i n the medium- t o l o n g - t e r m f u t u r e i s the c o n v e r s i o n t o methanol f o r s h i p p i n g t o consumer c o u n t r i e s f o r use i n t r a n s p o r t , ... Wi t h the e x c e p t i o n of the o p t i o n t o use n a t u r a l gas f o r the g e n e r a t i o n of e l e c t r i c i t y , t h e s e s u g g e s t i o n s r e q u i r e l o n g g e s t a t i o n p e r i o d s or l e a d t i m e s . For example, t h e r e i s a l e n g t h y time r e q u i r e d f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n of p i p e l i n e s t o domesti c consumers or a c r o s s f r o n t i e r s . In a d d i t i o n , i t i s u n c e r t a i n t h a t a l l of the s e o p t i o n s c o u l d be o p e r a t i o n a l , due t o c i r c u m s t a n c e s beyond the c o n t r o l of the gas p r o d u c i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . For example, an LNG e x p o r t p r o j e c t would i n v o l v e f i n a n c e , c u s t omers, and p o l i t i c a l f a c t o r s which might t a k e p r i o r i t y over economic prudence. I t i s t h e r e f o r e not s u r p r i s i n g t h a t the World Bank (1980a) r e p o r t s t h a t i n those d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s t h a t a r e e x p l o i t i n g t h e i r n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s , gas i s m a i n l y used f o r power g e n e r a t i o n and i n d u s t r y which can ab s o r b a l a r g e enough volume of gas t o j u s t i f y the c o n s t r u c t i o n of a p i p e l i n e . Governments of c o u n t r i e s which produce n a t u r a l gas i n the 42 d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d a r e becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y c o n s c i o u s of the enormous waste of t h e i r a s s o c i a t e d gas. T h i s , c o u p l e d w i t h an i n c r e a s i n g awareness of the revenue which c o u l d be earned t h r o u g h p r o d u c t i o n of n a t u r a l gas, has caused s t e p s t o be taken towards c u r b i n g such i r r e v e r s i b l e l o s s e s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , as l o n g as the demand from i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s i s low, i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n v e s t o r s w i l l be r e l u c t a n t t o d e v e l o p n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . 2.1.2.5 C o a l C o a l i s c l a s s i f i e d a c c o r d i n g t o i t s p r o p e r t i e s w h i c h , i n t u r n , a r e d e t e r m i n e d by the c o n d i t i o n s under which the p r o c e s s of c o a l i f i c a t i o n o c c u r r e d beneath the e a r t h . Under r e l a t i v e l y m i l d c o n d i t i o n s of heat and p r e s s u r e , s u b - b i t u m i n o u s , brown and l i g n i t e c o a l s a r e formed. These a r e r e g a r d e d as the l o w e s t ranked c o a l s (Eden e t a l . , 1981). These t y p e s of c o a l c o n t a i n up t o 70 p e r c e n t m o i s t u r e , l e s s than 69 p e r c e n t c a r b o n ; they d i s i n t e g r a t e r a p i d l y i n a i r , a r e l i a b l e t o i g n i t e s p o n t a n e o u s l y when exposed d u r i n g m i n i n g , and a r e of low c a l o r i f i c v a l u e ( F o l e y , 1981). At h i g h e r t e m p e r a t u r e s and p r e s s u r e s a r e b i t u m i n o u s c o a l s , which c o n t a i n about 69-86 p e r c e n t carbon and 5 p e r c e n t hydrogen. The h i g h e s t ranked c o a l s a r e formed under v e r y h i g h t e m p e r a t u r e s , and a r e c a l l e d a n t h r a c i t e s . A n t h r a c i t e c o a l c o n t a i n s as much as 98 p e r c e n t c a r b o n , w i t h 2 or 3 p e r c e n t hydrogen, t o g e t h e r w i t h oxygen, v o l a t i l e m a tter and i m p u r i t i e s . The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s of c o a l a r e summarized i n T a b l e 2.8. Other i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s i n the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of c o a l i n c l u d e the 43 TABLE 2.8 CLASSIFICATION OF COAL BY RANK C l a s s Rank Group SOME PROPERTIES Carbon Content Thermal Heat ( i n %) Content ( i n G i g a -j o u l e s per tonne) A n t h r a c i t e H i g h e s t Q u a l i t y B i t u m i n o u s H i g h e s t Q u a l i t y Sub- Poor B i t u m i n o u s Q u a l i t y L i g n i t e Poor Q u a l i t y -Meta-A n t h r a c i t e -Anthrac i t e -Semi -An t h r a c i t e -Low V o l a t i l i t y -Medium V o l a t i l i t y -High V o l a t i l i t y -Grade A -Grade B -Grade C -Brown C o a l - L i g n i t e 98% or more 92 t o 98 86 t o 92 78 t o 86 69 t o 78 L e s s than 69 L e s s than 69 Les s than 50 30 t o 34 20 t o 30 9 t o 14 9 t o 14 Sou r c e : Eden et a l . , 1981. Energy Economics, Growth, Resources And P o l i c i e s . Cambridge: Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , p. 102. Heat Content P r o p e r t i e s were d e r i v e d from the t e x t . 44 c o k i n g q u a l i t i e s of m e t a l l u r g i c a l c o a l , which r e l a t e s t o the m e c h a n i c a l s t r e n g t h of the coke, the ash c o n t e n t , and the s u l p h u r c o n t e n t , which r e l a t e s t o p o l l u t i o n problems. The q u a l i t i e s of c o a l v a r y and o v e r l a p , making i t d i f f i c u l t t o c l a s s i f y d i f f e r e n t t y p e s of c o a l a c c o r d i n g t o u n i f o r m c r i t e r i a . N e v e r t h e l e s s , on the b a s i s of s u r v e y s c a r r i e d out by the World Energy Conference (WEC, 1978a), c o a l r e s o u r c e s and r e s e r v e s can be d i v i d e d i n t o two main c a t e g o r i e s - h a r d c o a l and brown c o a l - on the b a s i s of heat c o n t e n t , depth l i m i t , and seam t h i c k n e s s . T h i s i s demonstrated i n T a b l e 2.9. P o t e n t i a l c o a l r e s o u r c e s a r e e s t i m a t e d a t 10125 b i l l i o n t o n n e s , or 50281 b i l l i o n boe (WEC, 1978b; World Bank, 1979a, 1980a; Eden e t a l . , 1981; F o l e y , 1981). T h i s e s t i m a t e i s about t w e n t y - f i v e t i m e s l a r g e r than e s t i m a t e d r e c o v e r a b l e c o n v e n t i o n a l w o r l d o i l r e s o u r c e s , and t w e n t y - e i g h t t i m e s more than t o t a l n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s i n the w o r l d . S e v e n t y - s i x p e r c e n t of w o r l d c o a l r e s o u r c e s a r e h a r d c o a l , and t w e n t y - f o u r p e r c e n t a r e brown c o a l . A l t h o u g h p o t e n t i a l c o a l r e s o u r c e s a r e v e r y l a r g e , t h e i r g e o l o g i c a l l o c a t i o n i s c o n c e n t r a t e d o u t s i d e the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . As a group, d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s p o s s e s s o n l y about 16 p e r c e n t of w o r l d r e s o u r c e s . D e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e the s i t e of 21 p e r c e n t of t o t a l w o r l d r e s e r v e s of h a r d c o a l , and about 1 p e r c e n t of brown c o a l (World Bank, 1979a; WEC, 1978b). Of t o t a l c o a l r e s o u r c e s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , 0.4 p e r c e n t a r e l o c a t e d i n OPEC c o u n t r i e s , 88 p e r c e n t i n non-OPEC net o i l e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s (0.4 p e r c e n t e x c l u d i n g r e s o u r c e s i n C h i n a ) , and 12 p e r c e n t i n net o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . S i m i l a r l y , the l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of h i g h q u a l i t y , h a r d c o a l TABLE 2.9 COAL CLASSIFICATION BY WORLD ENERGY CONFERENCE, 1978 CLASSIFICATION CRITERIA Energy Content Depth L i m i t Minimum Sean C l a s s Group ( i n GJ/per tonne) ( i n metres) T h i c k n e s s on ash f r e e b a s i s ( i n metres) Hard A n t h r i c i t e 23.8 or more 1,500 0.6 C o a l and Bi t u m i n o u s Brown Sub- Below 23.8 600 0.6 C o a l B i t u m i n o u s and L i g n i t e D e r i v e d from: Eden e t a l . , 1981. Energy Economics, Growth, R e s o u r c e s , And P o l i c i e s . Cambridge: Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , p. 103. 46 r e s o u r c e s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s i n non-OPEC net o i l e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , as i s the l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of brown c o a l r e s o u r c e s . World c o a l r e s e r v e s , which a r e e x p l o i t a b l e a t c u r r e n t p r i c e s w i t h a v a i l a b l e t e c h n o l o g i e s , a r e e s t i m a t e d a t 636 b i l l i o n t o n n e s , or 3158 b i l l i o n boe (World Bank, 1980a). T h i s amount i s f i v e t i m e s t h a t of c o n v e n t i o n a l o i l r e s e r v e s , and n e a r l y 6 p e r c e n t of p o t e n t i a l c o a l r e s o u r c e s . D e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s account f o r o n l y about 25 p e r c e n t of w o r l d r e s e r v e s , but a l t h o u g h d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s and c e n t r a l l y p l a n n e d economies p o s s e s s d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y h i g h q u a n t i t i e s of w o r l d c o a l r e s e r v e s which a r e c u r r e n t l y r e c o v e r a b l e , s o u r c e s i n d i c a t e t h a t a d d i t i o n a l r e s o u r c e s and r e s e r v e s a r e l i k e l y t o come from d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . D u n k e r l e y e t a l . (1981b:26) note t h a t , There has been r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e e x p l o r a t i o n f o r c o a l i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , so i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t c o n s i d e r a b l y more e x t e n s i v e c o a l r e s e r v e s w i l l be d i s c o v e r e d . P r i o r t o the o i l p r i c e r i s e of 1973, t h e r e was l i t t l e i n t e r e s t i n c o a l e x p l o r a t i o n among d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y governments, which c o n c e n t r a t e d on e x p l o r i n g f o r more v a l u a b l e r e s o u r c e s such as copper and i r o n o r e , or among i n t e r n a t i o n a l m i n i n g companies, due t o l a g g i n g demand and the e x i s t e n c e of abundant c o a l r e s o u r c e s i n the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . R e c e n t l y , d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s have r e c l a s s i f i e d much of t h e i r c o a l r e s o u r c e base, but r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e new c o a l e x p l o r a t i o n has begun. A major i s s u e of debate has been the p o s s i b i l i t y of s u b s t i t u t i n g c o a l f o r h i g h c o s t o i l , due t o d e c l i n i n g o i l r e s e r v e s ( G r i f f i t h e t a l . , 1979; D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , 1981b). A major c o n s t r a i n t i s the h i g h i n v e s t m e n t c o s t r e q u i r e m e n t s . D u n k e r l e y e t a l . (1981b), f o r example, note t h a t one reason f o r a slow development of c o a l r e s o u r c e s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i s h i g h i n f r a s t r u c t u r e c o s t s f o r m i n i n g and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n of 47 c o a l . I f c o a l i s t o s e r v e as an energy o p t i o n f o r the r e d u c t i o n of dependence on o i l i m p o r t s , governments of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s must soon embark on p o l i c i e s n e c e s s a r y f o r e x p a n s i o n of c o a l u t i l i z a t i o n . I n c e n t i v e s f o r p u b l i c and p r i v a t e i n vestment a r e r e q u i r e d t o p r o v i d e funds f o r e x p l o i t a t i o n , o p e n i n g , and development of mines, c o n s t r u c t i o n of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n systems, p r o v i s i o n of the r e q u i r e d i n f r a -s t r u c t u r e , and perhap s , s e e k i n g s o l u t i o n s t o e n v i r o n m e n t a l problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the m i n i n g and b u r n i n g of c o a l . Growth i n c o a l p r o d u c t i o n i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i s l i k e l y t o be g r e a t e s t i n c o u n t r i e s t h a t a r e a l r e a d y l a r g e p r o d u c e r s , p a r t l y because they have d e v e l o p e d mines and the n e c e s s a r y i n f r a -s t r u c t u r e . 2_.1_.2_.6_ H y d r o e l e c t r i c Resource P o t e n t i a l Data c o n c e r n i n g h y d r o e l e c t r i c power p o t e n t i a l f o r most c o u n t r i e s of the w o r l d , and those most o f t e n c i t e d i n contemporary l i t e r a t u r e , a r e based on e s t i m a t e s made i n the e a r l y 1970s by the World Energy Conference (WEC, 1974). T h i s s o u r c e , which p r o v i d e s the most r e l i a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t i s c u r r e n t l y a v a i l a b l e , e s t i m a t e s the w o r l d ' s t h e o r e t i c a l h y d r o e l e c t r i c c a p a c i t y t o be about 2343 thousand megawatts. Of t h i s , a p p r o x i m a t e l y 51 p e r c e n t i s l o c a t e d i n the d e v e l o p i n g non-communist c o u n t r i e s . D u n k e r l e y e t a l . (1981b) a s s e r t t h a t the amount of p o t e n t i a l h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y s t i l l a v a i l a b l e i n a t l e a s t some d e v e l o p i n g n a t i o n s i s v e r y l a r g e compared t o any f o r e s e e a b l e p r o j e c t i o n of l o c a l need. In many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s the p o t e n t i a l f o r 48 h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y p r o d u c t i o n has o n l y been d e v e l o p e d t o a s m a l l e x t e n t . E x p l o r i n g p r o s p e c t s f o r i n c r e a s e d h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y s u p p l y i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , the World Bank (1979a:47) n o t e s t h a t , The p o t e n t i a l f o r i n c r e a s i n g hydropower o u t p u t i n many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s c o n s i d e r a b l e . For example, A f r i c a i s e s t i m a t e d t o have 22% of w o r l d hydropower r e s o u r c e s , but o n l y 2% of t h i s has been d e v e l o p e d . One problem i s t h a t many s i t e s have a p o t e n t i a l f a r i n excess of any l o c a l market demand f o r the energy, so t h a t the c o s t per u n i t of energy d e l i v e r e d becomes p r o h i b i t i v e l y h i g h . One s o l u t i o n t o t h i s problem i s t o l o c a t e e n e r g y - i n t e n s i v e i n d u s t r i e s , such as aluminium s m e l t e r s , near the hydro s i t e , as was done w i t h t h e V o l t a R i v e r development scheme i n Ghana. Another i s t o ar r a n g e t o e x p o r t the power t o n e i g h b o r i n g c o u n t r i e s where demand i s g r e a t e r , as was done i n the case of Uganda and Kenya. On the p r o s p e c t s of h y d r o e l e c t i c i t y c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o the energy needs of the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , S i d d i q i and Hein (1979:181) a s s e r t t h a t , Many c o u n t r i e s a l r e a d y o b t a i n a s i g n i f i c a n t p o r t i o n of t h e i r t o t a l energy from hydropower; f o r s e v e r a l of them, the p o t e n t i a l e x i s t s f o r meeting a l l t h e i r e s t i m a t e d 1990 demand from t h i s energy so u r c e a l o n e . F r e q u e n t l y though, the optimum l o c a t i o n f o r hydropower s i t e s i s i n remote a r e a s d i f f i c u l t of a c c e s s and f a r from the c e n t r e s of demand. A l s o , i n s e v e r a l c o u n t r i e s which have adequate p o t e n t i a l f o r hydropower p l a n s f o r t a p p i n g i t do not y e t e x i s t , making i t u n l i k e l y t h a t t h i s s ource of energy w i l l o f f e r a s u b s t a n t i a l c o n t r i b u t i o n by 1990. I t seems t h a t even though about h a l f of the w o r l d ' s hydropower p o t e n t i a l i s i n the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , and the p o t e n t i a l f o r i n c r e a s i n g hydropower o u t p u t i n many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s c o n s i d e r a b l e , the push towards development of hydropower f o r many c o u n t r i e s may r a i s e such f a m i l i a r problems as l a c k of investment c a p i t a l , s m a l l and i s o l a t e d l o c a l demands t h a t r a i s e o p e r a t i n g and maintenance c o s t s , and the l a c k of i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g the r e s o u r c e base. 49 2..1«2.2 N u c l e a r Energy N u c l e a r energy i s the most r e c e n t l y d e v e l o p e d of a l l of the commercial s o u r c e s of energy i n the w o r l d . N u c l e a r energy's share of w o r l d power p r o d u c t i o n has r i s e n from z e r o p e r c e n t i n 1957 t o around n i n e p e r c e n t by the end of J u l y 1982 (OPEC B u l l e t i n , 1982). The number of atomic e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i n g s t a t i o n s has grown from t h r e e i n two c o u n t r i e s t o about 277 i n t w e n t y - f o u r c o u n t r i e s w i t h i n t h i s p e r i o d . T a b l e 2.10 shows the s c h e d u l e d e x p a n s i o n of w o r l d n u c l e a r c a p a c i t y . The r o l e of n u c l e a r energy i n the e l e c t r i c power g e n e r a t i o n of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s s m a l l and r e s t r i c t e d t o a v e r y few c o u n t r i e s . D u r i n g 1981 d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s as a whole ac c o u n t e d f o r j u s t one p e r c e n t of t o t a l w o r l d net i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y of n u c l e a r g e n e r a t i n g p l a n t s , and about two p e r c e n t of w o r l d p r o d u c t i o n of about 798 b i l l i o n kwh. T h i s r e p r e s e n t s more than a s i x f o l d i n c r e a s e i n p r o d u c t i o n over 1970 f o r t h e d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s , and a n i n e f o l d i n c r e a s e f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . S e v e r a l e x p l a n a t i o n s have been o f f e r e d f o r the r e l a t i v e l y low r o l e of n u c l e a r energy i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s ( D u n k e r l e y et a l . , 1981b; Moss and Morgan, 1981; Eden e t a l . , 1981; World Bank, 1979a, 1980a). I n c l u d e d among the s e e x p l a n a t i o n s i s the argument t h a t most d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s l a c k e l e c t r i c i t y markets l a r g e enough and s u f f i c i e n t l y w e l l i n t e g r a t e d t o e c o n o m i c a l l y j u s t i f y the use of even the s m a l l e s t r e a c t o r u n i t s . S i m i l a r l y , l a r g e f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s a r e n e c e s s a r y t o e s t a b l i s h and o p e r a t e a system f o r g e n e r a t i o n of e l e c t r i c i t y based on n u c l e a r f u e l s , and the a p p r o p r i a t e s c i e n t i f i c and e n g i n e e r i n g s k i l l s a r e a l s o 50 TABLE 2.10 S c h e d u l e d E x p a n s i o n o f N u c l e a r C a p a c i t y ( GW ( e ) i n O p e r a t i o n a t t h e e n d - y e a r ) C o u n t r y 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 D e v e l o p e d C o u n t r i e s : M a r k e t E c o n o m i e s B e l g u i m 3 . 5 5 . 5 5 . 5 C a n a d a 7 . 3 1 1 . 1 1 4 . 5 F i n l a n d 2 . 2 2 . 2 2 . 2 F r a n e e 2 3 . li 4 4 . 2 5 4 . 8 - 7 6 . 7 G e r m a n y , W e s t 9 . 8 1 6 . li 2 3 . 0 - 2 6 . 8 I t a l y 1 . 2 1 . 3 3 . 2 J a p a n 1 6 . 6 2 4 . 7 2 6 . 8 - 31 . 7 N e t h e r l a n d s 0 . 5 0 . S 0 . .5 S p a i n 2 . 0 6 . 5 1 2 . 1 - 1 3 . 1 S w e d e n 7 . 3 9 . li 9 . , 4 S w i z e r l a n d 1 . 9 2 . ,9 2 . , 9 U n i t e d K i n g d o m 6 . 5 1 0 . , 1 1 2 . . 5 S o u t h A f r i c a -- 1 , . 8 1 , . 8 U n i t e d S t a t e s 6 2 . ,4 9 4 . , 3 1 1 9 , . 0 S u b - t o t a l C e n t r a l l y P l a n n e d E c o n o m i e s . 1 4 4 , . 6 2 3 0 . . 9 2 8 8 . 2 - 3 1 0 . 8 C z e c h o s l o v a k i a 0 , , 8 3 . . 3 4 .1 - 7 . 9 G e r m a n y . E a s t . 1 , , 7 1 . 7 1 . 7 H u n g a r y 0 , .it 1 . 2 1 . 6 P o l a n d -• -• 0 . 4 - 1 . 8 U S S R . 1 7 .2 3 6 . 7 4 7 . 7 - 6 8 . 8 S u b - t o t a l 2 0 .i 4 2 . 9 5 5 . 5 - 8 1 . 8 T o t a l D e v e l o p e d C o u n t r i e s 1 6 4 . 9 2 7 3 . 8 3 4 3 . 7 - 3 9 2 . 6 D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s : N e t - O i l E x p o r t i n g C o u n t r i e s . M e x i c o - - 0 . 6 0 . 6 - 1 . 3 S u b - t o t a l -- 0 , . 6 0 , . 6 -- 1 . 3 N e t - o i l I m p o r t i n g D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s . A r g e n t i a n 0 . 3 0 , . 9 1 . 6 B r a z i l 0 . 6 0 , . 6 1 . . 9 -• 3 . 1 B u l g a r i a 1 . 6 2. . 6 3 , . 5 • • 4 . 5 C u b a -- -• 0 .li • - 0 . B I n d i a 0 . 8 1 , . 2 1 , , 5 • - 1 . 7 K o r e a , R e p . 1 . 2 5, . 5 6 , . 5 • - 7 . 4 P a k i s t a n 0 . 1 0 . . 1 0 . . 1 P h i l i p p i n e s -- 0 . . 6 0 . . 6 R o m a n i a -- -• 0 , . 7 • - 1 . 3 T a i w a n 3 . 1 4 . . 9 4 , . 9 Y u g o s l a v i a 0 . 6 0 . . 6 0 . . 6 S u b - t o t a l 8 . 3 1 7 . . 0 2 2 . . 3 -- 2 6 . 6 T o t a l D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s 1 7 . , 6 2 2 . , 9 -• 2 7 . 9 W o r l d T o t a l 1 7 . 3 . 2 2 9 1 . .4 3 6 7 • 4 2 0 . S o u r c e : B a u n , V . 1 9 8 4 . I m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n W o r l d e n e r g y . P e t r o l e u m E c o n o m i s t . J a n u a r y , 51 d i f f i c u l t t o o b t a i n . F u r t h e r , t h e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d ' s c o n c e r n a b o u t n u c l e a r p r o l i f e r a t i o n i s l i m i t i n g a c c e s s t o n u c l e a r t e c h n o l o g y and f u e l s . P r o b l e m s w i t h waste d i s p o s a l , p l a n t d i s c o m m i s s i o n i n g , p o s s i b l e a c c i d e n t s , low l e v e l r a d i a t i o n , and h a z a r d s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h f u e l t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v e a s f u r t h e r d i s i n c e n t i v e s t o i n c r e a s e d usage o f n u c l e a r power. F i n a l l y , n u c l e a r p l a n t i n s t a l l a t i o n r e q u i r e s a l e a d t i m e o f a b o u t t e n y e a r s . F a c t o r s s u c h as t h e s e have l e d Moss and Morgan (1981) t o c o n c l u d e t h a t n u c l e a r e n e r g y i s a l m o s t c e r t a i n l y t h e l e a s t a p p r o p r i a t e s u b s t i t u t e e n e r g y r e s o u r c e t o s u p p l y e i t h e r r u r a l o r u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n s i n t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . The OPEC B u l l e t i n ( 1 9 8 2 : 7 5 - 7 6 ) , on t h e o t h e r hand, s t a t e s t h a t , By t h e y e a r 2000, c u r r e n t IAEA e s t i m a t e s s a y , between 80,000 and 155,000 MWE of n u c l e a r c a p a c i t y w i l l p r o v i d e f o r a b o u t s e v e n p e r c e n t o f t o t a l e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n i n t h e T h i r d World. D u n k e r l e y e t a l . (1981b) i d e n t i f y f a c t o r s c o n t r i b u t i n g t o t h e e x p e c t e d i n c r e a s e i n n u c l e a r p r o d u c t i o n i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a s b e i n g t h e r e s u l t o f i n c r e a s i n g demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y , r i s i n g c o s t s o f a l t e r n a t i v e g e n e r a t i n g f a c i l i t i e s , a c o n c e r n f o r s e c u r i t y o f f u t u r e e n e r g y s u p p l i e s , and t h e w i l l i n g n e s s o f n u c l e a r v e n d o r s i n t h e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d t o p r o v i d e f i n a n c i n g . N e v e r t h e l e s s , as p o i n t e d o u t by t h e W o r l d Bank ( 1 9 8 0 a ) , t h e h i g h c o s t o f i n t r o d u c i n g a new and complex t e c h n o l o g y , f u e l a v a i l a b i l i t y , f u e l r e c y c l i n g , e n v i r o n m e n t a l f a c t o r s , f u e l s a f e t y , n a t i o n a l / i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l r e p e r c u s s i o n s , and p u b l i c a c c e p t a b i l i t y a r e f a c t o r s l i k e l y t o s l o w f u t u r e n u c l e a r d e v e l o p m e n t i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . In c o n c l u s i o n , t h e p r o b l e m o f r e d u c i n g t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d ' s d ependence on o i l t o meet i t s n o n t r a d i t i o n a l e n e r g y 52 needs a r i s e s from d i f f i c u l t i e s of i n t e r f u e l s u b s t i t u t i o n . W h i l e t h e r e a r e d i v e r s e n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy r e s o u r c e o p t i o n s , and a s u b s t a n t i a l share of the w o r l d ' s d e p o s i t s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , p u t t i n g t h e s e o p t i o n s and r e s o u r c e s t o use g e n e r a t e s i n t e r c o n n e c t e d t e c h n i c a l , s o c i a l , and economic i s s u e s which must be r e s o l v e d i f the n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy s u p p l y p o s i t i o n i s t o improve. 2.1.3 T r a d i t i o n a l Energy And S u p p l y C o n s t r a i n t s I n D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s T r a d i t i o n a l energy i n c l u d e s d i v e r s e t y p e s of f u e l , such as f i r e w o o d , c h a r c o a l , c r o p r e s i d u e s , and a n i m a l dung. D u r i n g e a r l y s t a g e s of development i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s t h e r e was a s h i f t from t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s t o the more c o n v e n i e n t , n o n t r a d i t i o n a l t y p e s . However, d e s p i t e tremendous urban growth i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , the v a s t m a j o r i t y of t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n c o n t i n u e s t o be l o c a t e d i n r u r a l a r e a s (Moss and Morgan, 1981). T r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s , p a r t i c u l a r l y f i r e w o o d , c o n t i n u e t o s e r v e major h o u s e h o l d and i n d u s t r i a l energy needs i n t h e s e r u r a l c o mmunities. Moreover, f i r e w o o d i s an i m p o r t a n t f u e l s o u r c e f o r a l a r g e p a r t of the urban p o p u l a t i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y the urban poor. T h i s s i t u a t i o n l e a d s the FAO (1983:8) t o c o n c l u d e t h a t , The t r a n s i t i o n from t r a d i t i o n a l t o commercial f u e l s , common t o the h i s t o r y of i n d u s t r i a l development i n the d e v e l o p e d w o r l d , w i l l i n a l l l i k e l i h o o d not occur i n many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i n the f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e . R a t h e r , r e c e n t e s t i m a t e s by FAO suggest t h a t a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h r e e - q u a r t e r s of the p o p u l a t i o n of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , or 2000 m i l l i o n p e o p l e , depend on t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s f o r domestic energy needs, and p r e d i c t t h a t t h i s number w i l l i n c r e a s e t o about 3000 m i l l i o n by the y e ar 2000 (FAO, 1981a,.1983). 53 T r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s , p a r t i c u l a r l y fuelwood, account f o r the l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of t o t a l energy use i n most of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . The World Bank (1980a:38) notes t h a t , In p o o r e r c o u n t r i e s [ n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy] s o u r c e s s u p p l y o n e - h a l f t o t h r e e - q u a r t e r s of the t o t a l energy used; the p r o p o r t i o n v a r i e s from 50-65 p e r c e n t i n A s i a t o 70-90 p e r c e n t i n A f r i c a . The World Bank (1980a) e s t i m a t e s t h a t t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s may account f o r r o u g h l y 20-25 p e r c e n t of the energy consumed i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , and s t a t e s t h a t i f a l l h ouseholds i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d which now use t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s were t o s w i t c h t o kerosene, t h e s e c o u n t r i e s ' demand f o r o i l would r i s e by 15 t o 20 p e r c e n t . There a r e c u r r e n t l y fuelwood s u p p l y s h o r t a g e s i n many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , w i t h f a r - r e a c h i n g consequences. S m i l and Knowland (1981:45) note t h a t , The p h y s i c a l s h o r t a g e s of f i r e w o o d i n c o u n t l e s s v i l l a g e s of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , and e x o r b i t a n t p r i c e s charged f o r i t i n the c i t i e s , a r e d i r e c t l y a f f e c t i n g v a s t l y l a r g e r numbers of pe o p l e than does m u l t i p l i c a t i o n of i m p o r t e d crude c o s t s . S i m i l a r l y , the World Bank (1980a:38) r e p o r t s t h a t , The demand f o r f u e l w o o d , the most i m p o r t a n t source of t r a d i t i o n a l energy f o r r e s i d e n t i a l u s e s , i n c l u d i n g c o o k i n g , has grown f a r f a s t e r than s u p p l y . Whereas v i l l a g e s once c o u l d u s u a l l y f i n d enough fuelwood near t h e i r homes, many now must s e a r c h f o r i t h a l f a day's walk or more away, and the urban poor must spend l a r g e p o r t i o n s of t h e i r incomes on f u e l . Many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e t h e r e f o r e f a c i n g a second energy c r i s i s which a f f e c t s p a r t i c u l a r l y the r u r a l s e c t o r s of t h e i r economies. To t h i s end, the FAO (1983:1) e s t i m a t e s t h a t , ... o v e r a l l perhaps 100 m i l l i o n p e o p l e a l r e a d y have t o l i v e w i t h a s h o r t a g e of f u e l f o r c o o k i n g and o t h e r b a s i c p u r p o s e s . P r o b a b l y a f u r t h e r 1000 m i l l i o n a r e l i v i n g i n s i t u a t i o n s where f u e l s u p p l i e s a r e b e i n g m a i n t a i n e d o n l y by d e s t r u c t i o n of the woody v e g e t a t i o n , so t h a t the i n c i d e n c e of s h o r t a g e s i s growing r a p i d l y . The a p a l l i n g s u f f e r i n g i n the S a h e l r e g i o n of A f r i c a i s a w e l l 54 known example. The l o s s of f o r e s t s i n t h i s a r e a , which has l e d t o d e s e r t encroachment, has l e f t p e o p l e w i t h n e i t h e r f u e l nor food ( F o l e y , 1981). T a b l e 2.11 i l l u s t r a t e s the fuelwood s i t u a t i o n as d e p i c t e d by the World Bank. Many c o u n t r i e s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d have a c t u a l or p o t e n t i a l fuelwood problems, but perhaps the most s t r i k i n g f e a t u r e of the t a b l e i s t h a t i t i s t h o s e c o u n t r i e s which a r e most dependent upon impor t e d o i l which f a l l i n t o t h i s c a t e g o r y ; t h r e e of the s i x t y - s i x c o u n t r i e s which a r e p e r c e i v e d to have a c t u a l or p o t e n t i a l fuelwood problems a r e OPEC members, s i x a r e non-OPEC net o i l e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s , and f i f t y - s e v e n a r e net o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . These c o u n t r i e s encompass 57 p e r c e n t of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . A c c o r d i n g t o the FAO (1981a:6), In the whole d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , fuelwood d e f i c i t s a f f e c t r o u g h l y 1150 m i l l i o n p e o p l e f o r an approximate amount of 400 m i l l i o n m3, but the s i t u a t i o n i s of s p e c i a l g r a v i t y i n A f r i c a and even more so i n A s i a . F u r t h e r d e s c r i p t i o n of the fuelwood s i t u a t i o n i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s as p r o v i d e d by the FAO i s shown i n T a b l e 2.12. T h i s t a b l e i n d i c a t e s the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n a f f e c t e d by d i m i n i s h i n g fuelwood s u p p l i e s , as w e l l as r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n a f f e c t e d . V a r i o u s e x p l a n a t i o n s have been o f f e r e d f o r the f i r e w o o d c r i s i s . One source s t a t e s t h a t the f r i g h t e n i n g r a t e of p o p u l a t i o n growth i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i s l e a d i n g t o the d e p l e t i o n of f o r e s t s f a s t e r than r e p l e n i s h m e n t i s o c c u r r i n g . T h i s v i e w p o i n t i s l i n k e d t o the e a r l y work of Thomas M a l t h u s , e n t i t l e d An_ Essay i n the P r i n c i p l e P o p u l a t i o n , 1789. W h i l e the major theme i s famine and a s t r o n g tendency f o r p o p u l a t i o n t o i n c r e a s e f a s t e r than f o o d s u p p l y because of the f i x e d s u p p l y of TABLE 2.11 THE FUELWOOD SITUATION IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES C o u n t r i e s w i t h A c t u a l or P o t e n t i a l Fuelwood Problems C o u n t r i e s Without Fuelwood Problems OPEC Members: Ecuador I n d o n e s i a N i g e r i a 23% of a l l OPEC c o u n t r i e s Non-OPEC net o i l e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s : Angola Burma Ch i n a Congo Egypt Z a i r e Net 43% of a l l non-OPEC net o i l e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s : A f g h a n i s t a n Bangladesh B e n i n Bhuton Chad Cameroon Cape Berde C e n t r a l A f r i c a n R e p u b l i c Cameroon Botswana E q u a t o r i a l Guinea E l S a l v a d o r E t h i o p i a Ghana Grenada Guinea H a i t i Honduras I n d i a D e m o c ratic Kampuchea Kenya L i b e r i a Loa R e p u b l i c Madagascar Malawi A l g e r i a Gabon I ran I r a q Kuwait L i b y a Qatar S. A r a b i a U.A.E. Ven e z u e l a B o l i v i a M a l a y s i a Mexico Oman Peru S y r i a T r i n i d a d Tuni s i a A l b a n i a A r g e n t i n a Bahamas Barbados B r a z i l C h i l e C o a s t a R i c a Columbia Cuba Cyprus Dominican R e p u b l i c F i j i Guatemala Guyana I v o r y Coast Jamaica J o r d a n R e p u b l i c of Korea Democratic Korea Suriname Turkey Uraquay Y u g o s l a v i a Guinea Romania 56 TABLE 2 . 1 1 (cont.) THE FUELWOOD SITUATION IN THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES C o u n t r i e s w i t h A c t u a l C o u n t r i e s W i t h o u t o r P o t e n t i a l F u e l w o o d P r o b l e m s F u e l w o o d P r o b l e m s N e t o i l i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g M a l i T o g o M a l d i v e s Z a m b i a L e s o t h o Y e m e n S u d a n S r i L a n k a T h a i l a n d S w a z i l a n d T a n z a n i a U g a n d a U p p e r V o l t a V i e t n a m Z i m b a b w e G u i n e a B i s s M o z a m b i g u e P a k i s t a n B u r u n d i R w a n d a G a m b i a M a u r i t a n i a M o r o c c o N e p a l N i g e r P h i l i p p i n e s S a o T o m e a n d P r i n c i p e S e n e g a l S i e r r a L e o n e S o l o m o n I s l a n d s S o m a l i a W e s t e r n S a m o a c o u n t r i e s ( c o n t ' d ) M o n g o l i a M a l t a M a u r i t i u s N i c a r a g u a P a n a m a P a r a q u a y P o r t u g a l 6 5 % o f a l l n e t i m p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s T h i s t a b l e e x c l u d e s a l l c a p i t a l s u r p l u s o i l e x p o r t e r s , a n d c o u n t r i e s w i t h p o p u l a t i o n s l e s s t h a n 0 . 5 m i l l i o n . A c o u n t r y i s p e r c e i v e d t o b e e x p e r i e n c i n g a c t u a l o r p o t e n t i a l f u e l w o o d p r o b l e m s i f i t s e s t i m a t e d a n n u a l c o n s u m p t i o n o f f u e l w o o d c a n n o t b e s u s t a i n e d t h r o u g h t h e y e a r 2 0 0 0 , w i t h o u t d a m a g e t o t h e e c o l o g y , a t a l e v e l o f . 7 5 m 3 p e r c a p i t a w h e r e i n c o m e p e r h e a d i n 1 9 7 8 w a s b e l o w $ 3 0 0 , f a l l i n g l i n e a r l y t o . 5 0 m 3 a t $ 6 0 0 a n d z e r o a t $ 9 0 0 . M a n y c o u n t r i e s n o t i n c l u d e d i n t h i s g r o u p h a v e o r w i l l h a v e f u e l w o o d p r o b l e m s i n l o c a l a r e a s ( W o r l d B a n k , 1 9 8 1 : 5 ) . S o u r c e : W o r l d B a n k , 1 9 8 0 : E n e r g y i n D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s . W a s h i n g t o n , D . C : W o r l d B a n k , A u g u s t , p . 5 ; D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , 1 9 8 1 : F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g t h e C o m p o s i t i o n o f E n e r g y U s e i n D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s . W a s h i n g t o n , D . C . R e s o u r c e s F o r t h e F u t u r e , p . 1 4 . TABLE 2.12 Region Africa Near East and North Africa Asia Pacific Latin America FUELWOOD SHORTAGES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CURRENT AND FUTURE DIMENSION IN MILLIONS OF PEOPLE AFFECTED 1980 Acute Deficit ** Scarcity * TOTAL RURAL TOTAL RURAL 2000 . Prospective Acute Scarcity Deficit or Deficit TOTAL RURAL TOTAL RURAL 55 49 31 26 29 18 146 104 832 201 131 69 710 143 112 102 161 50 148 30 535 268 1671 512 464 464 1434 342 112 96 1283 1052 323 280 2986 2398 * An acute scarcity situation exists in zones or countries which have a negative wood energy balance; where existing fuelwood resources have been depleted to the point where populations cannot obtain sufficient fuelwood, even through overcutting; where cx>nsurtption is below mLnijjTum needs. ** Deficit sutuations occur in zones or countries where populations are s t i l l able to meet their minimum fuelwood needs, but only by overcutting existing resources. These resources are already insufficient to meet present needs on a sustainable basis, and are rapidly being depleted. Source: FAO, 1981: Map of the fuelwood situation in the developing countries. Rome: Food and Agriculture of United Nations. P.8 58 l a n d , Saouma (1981:3) remarks t h a t , I r o n i c a l l y , the M a l t h u s i a n nightmare t h r e a t e n s t o become r e a l i t y i n r e s p e c t not t o food but t o the f u e l f o r i t s p r e p a r a t i o n . The h i g h r a t e of p o p u l a t i o n growth i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i s l e a d i n g t o i n c r e a s i n g p r e s s u r e s on l a n d f o r a g r i c u l t u r e and s e t t l e m e n t , r e s u l t i n g i n the d e s t r u c t i o n of huge t r a c t s of woodlands. In a d d i t i o n , t h e r e i s a l o c a l i z e d o v e r - e x p l o i t a t i o n of wood r e s o u r c e s f o r fuelwood, or t i m b e r f o r h o u s i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n i n the v i c i n i t y of s e t t l e m e n t s . The World Bank (1980a:38) notes t h a t , ... the f o r e s t s of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e b e i n g consumed a t a r a t e of 1.3 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l f o r e s t a r e a , or 10 - 15 m i l l i o n h e c t a r e s a y e a r . . . . As fuelwood s u p p l i e s a r e e x h a u s t e d , a n i m a l and c r o p r e s i d u e s a r e burned d e p r i v i n g the s o i l s of v a l u a b l e n u t r i e n t s and o r g a n i c c o n d i t i o n i n g m a t e r i a l . The amount of dung now b e i n g burned a n n u a l l y i s b e l i e v e d t o be e q u i v a l e n t t o some 2 m i l l i o n tons of n i t r o g e n and phosphorous. In l i g h t of t h i s , the World Bank (1980a:39) e s t i m a t e s t h a t , On the o r d e r of 50 m i l l i o n h e c t a r e s of fuelwood would need t o be p l a n t e d i n the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s by the year 2000 t o s a t i s f y the p r o j e c t e d demand f o r domestic c o o k i n g and h e a t i n g . T h i s would n e c e s s i t a t e a f i v e - f o l d i n c r e a s e over c u r r e n t p l a n t i n g w o r l d wide. The gap between p r e s e n t and r e q u i r e d p l a n t i n g l e v e l s i s l a r g e i n a l l r e g i o n s , but p a r t i c u l a r l y so i n A f r i c a . Here i t i s e s t i m a t e d t h a t p l a n t i n g would have t o be i n c r e a s e d as much as 1 5 - f o l d t o a s s u r e adequate fuelwood s u p p l i e s . In A s i a , which a l r e a d y has s e r i o u s e r o s i o n problems, not o n l y must t o t a l p l a n t i n g be i n c r e a s e d , but s p e c i a l e f f o r t s must be made t o combine i n c r e a s e s i n p l a n t i n g w i t h measures t o c o n t r o l e r o s i o n . In a d d i t i o n t o o v e r - p o p u l a t i o n , a second e x p l a n a t i o n of the fuelwood c r i s i s i s o f f e r e d , based on the concept of the \"Tragedy of the Commons\" proposed by H a r d i n i n 1968. A c c o r d i n g t o t h i s e x p l a n a t i o n , the f i r s t - c o m e f i r s t - s e r v e d r u l e g o v e r n i n g the e x p l o i t a t i o n of u n r e g u l a t e d woodstocks i s p r o p e l l i n g consumption but not p r o d u c t i o n . W i t h r i s i n g p o p u l a t i o n , the 59 demand f o r fuelwood exceeds s u p p l y w i t h o u t a u t o m a t i c a l l y p r e s s u r i n g i n d i v i d u a l s a c t i n g i n t h e i r own i n t e r e s t t o i n v e s t i n s u p p l i e s n e c e s s a r y f o r meeting f u t u r e needs. In o t h e r words, w h i l e the i n d i v i d u a l s engaging i n fuelwood c o l l e c t i o n a r e l i k e l y t o be aware and concerned about the e c o l o g i c a l breakdown around them, they a r e s i m u l t a n e o u s l y i m m o b i l i s e d by the u n r e g u l a t e d common p r o p e r t y n a t u r e of t r e e s . For example, D u n k e r l e y e t a l . (1981b:35) remark t h a t , P a r t of the cause of the fuelwood c r i s i s i s t h a t i n many LDCs, fuelwood i s a common p r o p e r t y r e s o u r c e so t h a t u s e r s do not pay the f u l l c o s t s of fuelwood use and p r o d u c e r s do not r e c e i v e the f u l l b e n e f i t s of f u e l -wood i n v e s t m e n t s . A l a r g e share of fuelwood i s c o l l e c t e d f o r f r e e from l a n d s which a r e e i t h e r common p r o p e r t y where anyone may l e g a l l y c o l l e c t fuelwood, or from p r i v a t e or p u b l i c f o r e s t s where fuelwood c o l l e c t i o n i s t e c h n i c a l l y i l l e g a l but de_ f a c t o u n c o n t r o l l e d . There i s l i t t l e i n c e n t i v e f o r anyone t o under t a k e i n v e s t m e n t s t o i n c r e a s e the p r o d u c t i v i t y of t h e s e a r e a s . The b e n e f i t s t o any g i v e n i n d i v i d u a l of p l a n t i n g or p r o t e c t i n g t r e e s a r e d i l u t e d as o t h e r s r e c e i v e the advantages of h i s l a b o r . As a r e s u l t , r u r a l v i l l a g e r s who c o l l e c t fuelwood f o r t h e i r own use, as w e l l as fuelwood s e l l e r s and c h a r c o a l makers who ga t h e r fuelwood f o r s a l e t o o t h e r s , c u t e x c e s s i v e amounts of wood. These problems i n h e r e n t i n common p r o p e r t y use of f o r e s t l a n d a r e compounded by i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n , which i n c r e a s e s the demand f o r l a n d f o r o t h e r u s e s , as w e l l as the p r e s s u r e s upon r e m a i n i n g f o r e s t l a n d . T h i s common p r o p e r t y n a t u r e of f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s l e a d s the u s e r s t o spend more t i m e , energy and money t o meet t h e i r energy needs from the d w i n d l i n g s u p p l y base r a t h e r than i n v e s t i n r e g e n e r a t i o n of common p r o p e r t y wood s t o c k which somebody e l s e i s most l i k e l y t o consume. T h i s e t h i c u l t i m a t e l y l e a d s t o t o t a l d e f o r e s t a t i o n and e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e g r a d a t i o n , or a \" t r a g e d y of the commons\". As a s o l u t i o n t o t h i s problem i t has been sug g e s t e d t h a t the wood s t o c k be p r i v a t i z e d ; t h a t d i s i n c e n t i v e s t o t he p r o d u c t i o n of common p r o p e r t y t r e e s be reduced by 6 0 subdividing common property wood stock into exclusive units allocated to s p e c i f i c use communities. The Philippines, and the Gujurat state of India i l l u s t r a t e the success of small-holder cash tree farming projects for production of firewood, charcoal, or pulpwood (Spears, 1980). Nevertheless, such endeavors are not without the inevitable problem of enforcing the necessary r e s t r i c t i o n s . Individuals may p e r s i s t in c o l l e c t i n g trees from private or protected areas to s a t i s f y their needs for wood. Guarding against such i l l e g a l a c t i v i t i e s , where possible, i s l i k e l y to be c o s t l y . Furthermore, the p r i v a t i z a t i o n of wood i s l i k e l y to lead to i t s commercialization and, given that the majority of users in the developing world are poor, such a system may worsen the present income mal-distribution s i t u a t i o n of these regions. A t h i r d perspective on the fuelwood c r i s i s i s known as the climatic explanation. Sudden and prolonged variations in seasonal p r e c i p i t a t i o n i s manifested in numerous forms, including drought and d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n . The climatic change i s s i g n i f i c a n t , contributing to a dramatic decrease in vegetation and the rapid expansion of impoverished forest lands in most regions of A f r i c a and Asia. For example, the creeping d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n in Northern Nigeria i s due to a lack of r a i n f a l l and i s accompanied by violent wind storms which cause sand p a r t i c l e s to accumulate and submerge surrounding a g r i c u l t u r a l lands. This viewpoint suggests that a combination of reafforestation, s o i l and water conservation, and improved land use systems can dramatically a l t e r t h i s tragic picture. A major factor contributing to fuelwood s c a r c i t y i s the 61 use of t r a d i t i o n a l open f i r e s t o v e s , through which l a r g e amounts of energy a r e l o s t w h i l e b u r n i n g fuelwood and o t h e r o r g a n i c f u e l s ( D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , 1981b; World Bank, 1980c; C h a u v i n , 1981). Use of the t r a d i t i o n a l s t o v e y i e l d s an e f f i c i e n c y of o n l y f i v e t o ten p e r c e n t ( D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , 1981b; F r e n c h , 1978a, D r a p e r , 1977). The World Bank (1980b:9-10) n o t e s t h a t , At l e a s t as i m p o r t a n t as i n c r e a s i n g the s u p p l y of f i r e w o o d i s i m p r o v i n g the e f f i c i e n c y w i t h which i t i s used. The poor i n the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a c t u a l l y use more f u e l f o r c o o k i n g than p e o p l e i n i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s because they e f f e c t i v e l y use o n l y a s m a l l f r a c t i o n of the energy i n the f u e l s t h a t they b u r n . Most of the s t o v e s f o r t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s a c c o m p l i s h l i t t l e more than h o l d i n g the c o o k i n g v e s s e l a t an a p p r o p r i a t e h e i g h t above an e s s e n t i a l l y open f i r e . T h i s r e q u i r e s s u b s t a n t i a l fuelwood f o r a s m a l l u n i t of used energy o u t p u t . A study by Chauvin (1981) of Ouagadougou, the c a p i t a l of Upper V o l t a , e v a l u a t e s the e f f e c t t h a t the a d o p t i o n of improved s t o v e s c o u l d have on fuelwood s a v i n g s . H i s f i n d i n g s suggest t h a t a f a m i l y of e i g h t p e o p l e consumes 3285 kg of wood per y e a r , and t h a t t h i s consumption c o u l d be reduced t o 1643 kg of wood per year t h r o u g h the use of an improved s t o v e , c o n s i s t i n g of an earthenware b r i c k f i r e e n c l o s u r e w i t h chimney. N e v e r t h e l e s s , such new, e n e r g y - e f f i c i e n t s t o v e s must be a c c e p t a b l e t o the pe o p l e f o r whom they a r e d e s i g n e d i f they a r e to be i n s t r u m e n t a l i n r e d u c i n g the fuelwood s h o r t a g e i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . As the World Bank (1980b:10) n o t e s , Improved s t o v e s have been d e v e l o p e d i n many c o u n t r i e s but s u c c e s s f u l e f f o r t s t o get them i n t o w i d e s p r e a d use a r e few. A f u r t h e r c o n t r i b u t i n g f a c t o r t o fuelwood s c a r c i t y i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i n v o l v e s the s u b s t i t u t i o n of fuelwood f o r o i l and gas, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n urban a r e a s . Recent d r a m a t i c i n c r e a s e s 62 i n o i l and gas p r i c e s have l e d t o growing s u b s t i t u t i o n of fuelwood and c h a r c o a l i n urban c e n t r e s , t h e r e b y i n t e n s i f y i n g wood s u p p l y problems. Moss and Morgan (1981:30-31) note t h a t , In some c o u n t r i e s , n o t a b l y i n I n d i a , kerosene i s s u b s i d i s e d i n o r d e r t o encourage i t s use and so d i s c o u r a g e the use of wood i n o r d e r t o save the t r e e s . W h i l e t h i s p r o v i d e s a s h o r t term s o l u t i o n t o the problem, i t may y i e l d some n e g a t i v e consequences. For c o u n t r i e s w i t h o u t i n d i g e n e o u s o i l r e s o u r c e s t h i s might mean i n c r e a s e d dependence on c o s t l y i m p o r t e d o i l . The v a r i o u s f a c t o r s which c o n t r i b u t e t o fuelwood s c a r c i t y t h roughout the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d must be a d d r e s s e d s i m u l t a n e o u s l y i n s e e k i n g a s o l u t i o n t o t r a d i t i o n a l energy s u p p l i e s f o r domestic use. In the l o n g term, wood f u e l problems w i l l have t o be r e s o l v e d t h r o u g h the c r e a t i o n of new and a d d i t i o n a l r e s o u r c e s , u s i n g a f f o r e s t a t i o n and r e f o r e s t a t i o n programs which some c o u n t r i e s are a l r e a d y a t t e m p t i n g . As Pasca (1981:2) n o t e s , As u s u a l , the s o l u t i o n s go beyond t e c h n o l o g y . They i n v o l v e a nexus of t e c h n o l o g i c a l , economic, s o c i o -c u l t u r a l and p o l i t i c a l f a c t o r s . Remedies or p r e s c r i p t i o n s f o r r e s o l v i n g the energy problems of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d must t a k e i n t o account a l l a s p e c t s of t h e s e c o u n t r i e s ' energy needs, i n c l u d i n g t e c h n i c a l , economic and non-economic f a c t o r s , as w e l l as user p r e f e r e n c e f o r v a r i o u s f u e l t y p e s . C H A P T E R 3 P O L I C Y O P T I O N S AND P U B L I C A C C E P T A N C E 3.1 R e m e d i e s A n d P r e s c r i p t i o n s Problems of h i g h energy c o s t s and c o n s t r a i n t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the a v a i l a b i l i t y of energy s o u r c e s both n o n t r a d i t i o n a l and t r a d i t i o n a l have t r i g g e r e d an e x a m i n a t i o n of energy p o l i c y o p t i o n s f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . S e v e r a l i s s u e s of debate have a r i s e n over t h i s m a t t e r , one of which r e l a t e s t o p r o s p e c t s f o r energy c o n s e r v a t i o n i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n , a c c o r d i n g t o T o l b a (1978), i n v o l v e s the s t r a t e g y of a d j u s t i n g and o p t i m i z i n g e n e r g y - u s i n g systems and p r o c e d u r e s so as t o reduce energy r e q u i r e m e n t s per u n i t of output w i t h o u t a f f e c t i n g s o c i o - e c o n o m i c development or c a u s i n g d i s r u p t i o n i n l i f e - s t y l e s . Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n , t h e r e f o r e , c a l l s f o r making what i s a v a i l a b l e go f u r t h e r . To some a u t h o r s , energy c o n s e r v a t i o n p o l i c i e s seem of l i t t l e use t o d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , because of t h e i r r e l a t i v e l y low energy consumption, which i s due t o the low average income of the m a j o r i t y of t h e i r p o p u l a t i o n . S m i l and Knowland (1981:8) note t h a t , [Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n ] , so i m p e r a t i v e f o r the advanced n a t i o n s , i s , o b v i o u s l y , of a l i m i t e d use i n most of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d where r e f i n e d f u e l s a r e not wasted on i n e f f i c i e n t i n d i v i d u a l t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , energy-i n t e n s i v e l e i s u r e a c t i v i t i e s , and w a s t e f u l space h e a t i n g and c o o l i n g . There i s , n a t u r a l l y , room f o r improved c o n v e r s i o n e f f i c i e n c i e s but such s t e p s a l o n e cannot even p e r c e p t i b l y slow the growing demand. D u n k e r l e y e t a l . (1981a:124), on the o t h e r hand, a r e of the o p i n i o n t h a t , Even t a k i n g i n t o account r i s i n g consumption a s s o c i a t e d w i t h i n c r e a s i n g economic development, t h e r e a r e i m p o r t a n t o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o c o n s e r v e energy i n both the t r a d i t i o n a l and commercial s e c t o r s . 63 64 S i m i l a r o p t i m i s m i s d i s p l a y e d by T o l b a (1978:11) when he remarks t h a t , The commonly h e l d axiom t h a t \" o n l y the a f f l u e n t can a f f o r d c o n s e r v a t i o n \" i s t h o r o u g h l y d i s c r e d i t e d by an e x a m i n a t i o n of what has r e c e n t l y been c a l l e d \"the o t h e r energy c r i s i s : f i r e w o o d \" . Proper management of energy r e s o u r c e s i s e s s e n t i a l i n the poor c o u n t r i e s because of energy's importance i n domestic l i f e , a g r i c u l t u r e , the c r e a t i o n of p r o d u c t i v e j o b s , and the b a l a n c i n g of t r a d e w i t h o t h e r n a t i o n s . T o l b a goes on t o e x p l a i n the economic and e n v i r o n m e n t a l b e n e f i t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h energy c o n s e r v a t i o n p o l i c i e s , when he p o i n t s out t h a t , Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n today w i l l a l l o w the e a r t h ' s l i m i t e d r e s o u r c e s base of h i g h - q u a l i t y f u e l s t o be \" s t r e t c h e d \" f u r t h e r . I t w i l l e n a b l e f u t u r e g e n e r a t i o n s t o share i n the e a r t h ' s f i n i t e s t o c k of f o s s i l f u e l s . Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n w i l l a l l o w a p o r t i o n of the s e f u e l s t o be r e s e r v e d f o r non-energy p u r p o s e s : d r u g s , l u b r i c a n t s , and o t h e r compounds. I t w i l l h e l p reduce e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e g r a d a t i o n a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a l l c u r r e n t energy p r o d u c t i o n t e c h n o l o g i e s . Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n w i l l p e r m i t the av o i d a n c e o f , or m i n i m a l r e l i a n c e on, d o u b t f u l energy s o u r c e s w h i l e the s e a r c h f o r s a f e , s u s t a i n a b l e s o u r c e s c o n t i n u e s . C o n s e r v a t i o n a l s o d e c r e a s e s the l i k e l i h o o d t h a t the c l i m a t o l o g i c a l t h r e s h o l d ( f o r example, w i t h c arbon d i o x i d e p r o d u c t i o n , or w i t h r e g i o n a l heat g e n e r a t i o n ) w i l l be c r o s s e d , t r i g g e r i n g consequences t h a t may be d e v a s t a t i n g . Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n u ndoubtedly has some advantages f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n may l i m i t t h e r a t e of o i l d e p l e t i o n i n net o i l e x p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s and ex t e n d the l e n g t h of time t h a t revenue w i l l be earned from t h i s r e s o u r c e . In net o i l i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s , c o n s e r v a t i o n may reduce o i l import c o s t s and b a l a n c e of payments problems. Suggested measures f o r c o n s e r v a t i o n of both n o n t r a d i t i o n a l and t r a d i t i o n a l energy i n v o l v e g r e a t e r use of more e f f i c i e n t energy end-use and c o n s e r v a t i o n t e c h n o l o g i e s . The mix of t r a n s p o r t methods c o u l d be changed, s h i f t i n g t r a f f i c from l e s s 65 t o more e f f i c i e n t c a r r i e r s such as p u b l i c passenger t r a n s p o r t , and i n c r e a s i n g l o a d f a c t o r s (World Bank, 1981b). The development of h i g h and low grade c o a l as s u b s t i t u t e s f o r o i l i n e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n , f o r r a i l w a y t r a n s p o r t , and f o r domestic uses a r e f u r t h e r methods of o i l c o n s e r v a t i o n (Eden e t a l . , 1981). In the i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r energy c o n s e r v a t i o n o p p o r t u n i t i e s a r i s e p a r t l y from changes i n the mix of p r o d u c t s , and p a r t l y from changes i n the methods of p r o d u c t i o n . Such changes might t a k e the form of s e l e c t i n g energy c o n s e r v i n g p r o c e s s e s . For example, m a t e r i a l s whose p r o d u c t i o n i s energy i n t e n s i v e may be r e c y c l e d , or t h e r e may be a s w i t c h from more t o l e s s c o s t l y s o u r c e s of i n d u s t r i a l energy s u p p l y t h r o u g h a p r i c i n g p o l i c y which e n s u r e s t h a t , as f a r as p o s s i b l e , the p r i c e of energy r e f l e c t s the r e a l economic c o s t ( D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , 1981b; World Bank, 1981b). The World Bank (1981b) recommends t h a t measures aimed a t r e d u c i n g o i l dependence c o n c e n t r a t e on improvement i n the energy e f f i c i e n c y of the i n d u s t r i a l and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r s , and on d e t e r m i n i n g s u i t a b l e p r i c i n g p o l i c i e s . C o n s e r v a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s f o r t r a d i t i o n a l energy i n v o l v e the replacement of most t r a d i t i o n a l open f i r e s t o v e s , which waste about 90 p e r c e n t of t h e i r h e a t , as mentioned e a r l i e r . S i m i l a r l y , c h a r c o a l i s p r e s e n t l y produced by f e l l i n g t r e e s and b u r n i n g them i n sand c o v e r e d p i t s , r e s u l t i n g i n s u b s t a n t i a l energy waste. E s t i m a t e s suggest about a 55 p e r c e n t l o s s of energy d u r i n g t h i s p r o c e s s of c h a r c o a l p r o d u c t i o n ( E a r l , 1975). F r e n c h (1978a) r e p o r t s l o s s e s as h i g h as 50 t o 80 p e r c e n t i n A f r i c a and A s i a , even when hardwood i s used. C h a r c o a l 6 6 p r o d u c t i o n c o u l d be improved t h r o u g h the i n t r o d u c t i o n of improved k i l n s , but not w i t h o u t some t r a d e - o f f s . As Moss and Morgan (1981:27) r e p o r t , The more s o p h i s t i c a t e d k i l n s and r e t o r t s a r e f i x e d and e x p e n s i v e , but e x t r e m e l y e f f i c i e n t . E a r t h and p i t k i l n s and p o r t a b l e s t e e l k i l n s a r e much l e s s e f f i c i e n t , even w a s t e f u l of f u e l , but a r e cheaper and much more m o b i l e . Development and i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of t h e s e and o t h e r c o n s e r v a t i o n programs r e q u i r e the s y s t e m a t i c c o l l e c t i o n of d a t a on energy consumption by major forms of s u p p l y and f o r each of the main end-use s e c t o r s ( D u n k e r l e y , e t a l . , 1981b). I n f o r m a t i o n i s a l s o r e q u i r e d c o n c e r n i n g methods of r e d u c i n g energy demands w i t h o u t impeding economic growth. Eden et a l . (1981) i d e n t i f y some major o b s t a c l e s t o the a d o p t i o n of energy c o n s e r v a t i o n p o l i c i e s . For example, government p r i o r i t i e s may c o n f l i c t . The g o a l s of c o n t r o l l e d i n f l a t i o n , r e d u c t i o n of unemployment, i n c r e a s e d i n v e s t m e n t , and the b a l a n c e of payments a r e l i k e l y t o t a k e precedence over energy c o n s e r v a t i o n measures i n v o l v i n g h i g h energy p r i c e s or t a x e s aimed a t r e d u c i n g consumption, measures which may i n t u r n s t i m u l a t e i n f l a t i o n a r y wage demands. S i m i l a r l y , i n v e s t m e n t s i n new energy a l t e r n a t i v e s aimed a t r e d u c i n g o i l i m p o r t s may l e a d t o import c o s t s of new equipment and t e c h n o l o g y ; the promotion of e c o n o m i c a l passenger c a r s t h r o u g h h i g h g a s o l i n e t a x e s may n e c e s s i t a t e the import of s m a l l c a r s , and worsen the c o u n t r y ' s b a l a n c e of payment s i t u a t i o n . A second o b s t a c l e t o the a d o p t i o n of energy c o n s e r v a t i o n p o l i c i e s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d c e n t r e s around the c o s t s of e n f o r c i n g such p o l i c i e s . G i v e n the u n c e r t a i n t y t h a t such measures w i l l have p o s i t i v e r e s u l t s , government i n t e r v e n t i o n and 67 a l l o c a t i o n of p u b l i c funds seems u n l i k e l y . Y e t , d e s p i t e such c o n s t r a i n t s , the World Bank (1981a) c o n c l u d e s t h a t c o n s e r v a t i o n i s p r o b a b l y the b e s t medium-term p a t h t o r e d u c t i o n of t o t a l energy consumption and w a r r a n t s c l o s e r a t t e n t i o n . A major theme of s t u d i e s c o n c e r n i n g energy p o l i c i e s of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i s the n o t i o n t h a t t h e s e c o u n t r i e s , u n l i k e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d n a t i o n s , s h o u l d a v o i d dependence on hydrocarbon f u e l s such as o i l and n a t u r a l gas, or nonrenewable energy o r i e n t e d t e c h n o l o g i e s (World Bank, 1979a, 1981b; Reddy, 1979; F r e n c h , 1978b; H i l l i n g , 1976; E a r l , 1975; P a r i k h , 1978). For example, E a r l (1975:103) remarks t h a t , I t i s p a r t i c u l a r l y dangerous f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s t o r e l y upon t r e n d s which have o c c u r r e d i n the p r e s e n t d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . O i l r e s o u r c e s a r e b e i n g d e p l e t e d a t a much f a s t e r r a t e than f o r m e r l y and t h i s i s c e r t a i n t o l e a d t o s u b s t a n t i a l p r i c e i n c r e a s e s not o n l y f o r o i l but f o r a l l s u b s t i t u t e s . A l t h o u g h d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s w i t h adequate funds w i l l u t i l i z e t h e i r consumer s u r p l u s t o purchase f u e l f o r t h e i r expanding needs, the o u t l o o k f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i s b l e a k s i n c e s u b s t i t u t i o n i s r e a l i s t i c o n l y f o r t h o s e c o u n t r i e s which can a f f o r d the s u b s t i t u t e s . S i m i l a r l y , M a k h i j a n i ( 1 9 8 1 : 1 5 ) i s of the o p i n i o n t h a t , In t h e i r r u s h t o i m i t a t e the West, the p l a n n e r s and p o l i t i c i a n s of poor c o u n t r i e s c o n s i s t e n t l y opt f o r what i s known as \" h i g h t e c h n o l o g y \" or \"advanced t e c h n o l o g y \" , terms u s u a l l y u n d e f i n e d but i m p l i c i t l y t a ken t o mean \" c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e t e c h n o l o g y \" . Many of t h e s e t e c h n o l o g i e s a r e e c o l o g i c a l l y unsound and d e b a s i n g t o human d i g n i t y . ... The s o l u t i o n s t o the problems of development c a l l f o r the use of r e s o u r c e s i n a manner t h a t i s r a d i c a l l y d i f f e r e n t from the way they a r e , or have been, used i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s . The l i t e r a t u r e s u g g e s t s t h a t r a t h e r than r e l y on l a r g e s c a l e , c a p i t a l - i n t e n s i v e , nonrenewable e n e r g y - o r i e n t e d t e c h n o l o g y , d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s s h o u l d t u r n t o biomass, b i o g a s , s o l a r , windpower, m i n i h y d r o , t i d a l power, wave power, and 68 geothermal energy. The World Bank (1979b:1-2), f o r example, a s s e r t s t h a t , M o d e r n i z a t i o n v i r t u a l l y r e q u i r e s the use of e l e c t r i c i t y and m e c h a n i c a l energy from machines, y e t the c o s t of t h e s e t e c h n o l o g i e s i s t o o h i g h t o p e r m i t t h e i r r a p i d e x t e n s i o n t h r o u g h the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . The o n l y s i m p l e r e s o l u t i o n t o t h i s dilemma i s t o deny the p o s s i b i l i t y of p r o v i d i n g modern means of p r o d u c t i o n and a m e n i t i e s t o most of the w o r l d ' s p o p u l a t i o n i n the f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e by c o n t i n u i n g t o r e l y s o l e l y on c o n v e n t i o n a l e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n and i n t e r n a l combustion e n g i n e s . At l e a s t t h r e e a l t e r n a t i v e approaches s h o u l d be p u r s u e d : making more e f f e c t i v e use of d r a f t a n i m a l s , d e v e l o p i n g t e c h n o l o g i e s t h a t may p e r m i t economic use of l o c a l l y - a v a i l a b l e wind, hydro, and s o l a r energy i n some a r e a s . S i d d i q i and Hein (1979:165-166) note t h a t , C o u n t r i e s w i t h o u t adequate energy r e s o u r c e s of t h e i r own w i l l be competing i n the f u t u r e w i t h advanced i n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t i e s f o r the d w i n d l i n g s u p p l i e s of f o s s i l f u e l s and uranium. In many c a s e s , they w i l l be a t a d i s a d v a n t a g e i n t h i s c o m p e t i t i o n because of t h e i r i n a b i l i t y t o e x p o r t adequate amounts of raw m a t e r i a l s or f i n i s h e d p r o d u c t s i n s u f f i c i e n t q u a n t i t i e s t o pay f o r the h i g h c o s t of i m p o r t e d energy. I t thus seems e s s e n t i a l t h a t such c o u n t r i e s s h o u l d s e r i o u s l y c o n s i d e r the p o t e n t i a l of a l t e r n a t e energy s o u r c e s , e s p e c i a l l y renewable ones, such as h y d r o e l e c t r i c power, wind, and s o l a r energy. T e c h n o l o g i e s and a p p l i c a t i o n of a l t e r n a t e new energy o p t i o n s a r e d i s c u s s e d e x t e n s i v e l y i n the c u r r e n t l i t e r a t u r e , and a r e summarized i n F i g u r e 3.1 and i n T a b l e s 3.1, 3.2, and 3.3. These t e c h n o l o g i e s can be d i v i d e d i n t o those t h a t e n t a i l the p r o d u c t i o n of t h e r m a l , m e c h a n i c a l , and e l e c t r i c a l energy from d i r e c t s o l a r , wind, and s m a l l s c a l e hydropower (World Bank, 1981b). The use of energy f i x e d i n o r g a n i c matter by the p r o c e s s of p h o t o s y n t h e s i s has t r a d i t i o n a l l y f o c u s e d on the d i r e c t combustion of biomass energy s o u r c e s . However, as a r e s u l t of the r i s i n g p r i c e s of o i l , t h e r e has been i n c r e a s i n g i n t e r e s t i n the more e f f i c i e n t u t i l i z a t i o n of biomass energy t h r o u g h c o n v e r s i o n of biomass r e s o u r c e s t o s y n t h e t i c f u e l s w i t h 69 MAJOR RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES AND APPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Direct Solar Energy 8 6 S ^ t e n s Wind Energy / / Wind energy Conversion Systems / Mechanical Energy Heat Energy Prime movers (e.g., organic Rankine cycle engine, turbines) Examples of End Uses Domestic hot water, space heating and co o l -ing, crop drying, cooking, d e s a l i n a t i o n , i n d u s t r i a l process heat Water pumping, grain grinding, transportation, I n d u s t r i a l shaft power S o u r c e : W o r l d Bank, 1981: M o b i l i z i n g R e n e w a b l e E n e r g y T e c h n o l o g y i n D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s : S t r e n g t h e n i n g L o c a l C a p a b i l i t i e s a n d R e s e a r c h . J u l y . p . 2 1 . TABLE 3.1 TECHNOLOGIES FOR CONVERSION OF-BIOMASS INTO USABLE'FUELS Conversion Processed Starting Needs for Research, Development, and Demonstra- Needs for Information and Process Fuel Material t i o n Standardization Major Gaps Who should f i l l Large-scale Small-scale these gaps technology technology Extraction Fermentation Enzymatic diges-t i o n and fermen-tation Fuel o i l Ethanol Ethanol O i l seeds Sugar, starch Wood Evaluation of existing small-scale equipment Improvement i n yields and process e f f i c i e n c y Improvements i n bio-chemical and engin-eering process e f f i -ciency Developing country None laboratory or con-su l t i n g firm Industrial sector i n B developed and develop-ing countries Industrial sector i n None developed and developing countries A , B None O G a s i f i c a t i o n / Liquefaction Carbonization Anaerobic digestion Methanol Charcoal Gas/biogas (methane) Wood or other cellulose Wood Animal and a g r i c u l t u r a l residues Develop technoeconomi-c a l l y e f f i c i e n t process Improvements i n yields and process e f f i c i e n c y ; adaptive research on small-scale plants Microbiological, mat-e r i a l s and substrate research, l o c a l adapta-tio n and s o c i a t a l i s -sues Industrial sector i n developed and advanced developing countries Private organizations and rirms i n LDCs with external collaboration Public and private Laboratories; private organizations and f i r m 6 i n developing countries None None A,B TABLE 3.1 continued TECHNOLOGIES FOR CONVERSION OF BIOMASS INTO USABLE FUELS C o n v e r s i o n Process P r o c e s s e d F u e l S t a r t i n g M a t e r i a l Needs f o r Research, Development, and Demonstra-t i o n Major Gaps Who s h o u l d f i l l t h e s e gaps Needs f o r I n f o r m a t i o n and S t a n d a r d i z a t i o n L a r g e - s c a l e t e c h n o l o g y S m a l l - s c a l e t e c h n o l o g y P y r o l y s i s o i l , c h a r , gas Urban wastes, a g r i c u l t u r a l r e s i d u e s , wood A d a p t a t i o n t o l o c a l c o n d i t i o n s D e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y i n s u s t r i a l s e c t o r None B r i q u e t t i n g B r i q u e t t e s A g r i c u l t u r a l r e s i d u e s , straw Development and adapta-t i o n o f s m a l l - s c a l e machines P u b l i c and p r i v a t e L a b o r a t o r i e s , p r i v a t e o r g a n i z a t i o n s , and f i r m s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s A,B G a s i f i c a t i o n Producer gas Wood, a g r i c u l t u r a l r e s i d u e s Process improvement, a d a p t a t i o n t o v a r i o u s f e e d s t o c k s , d e v e l o p -ment o f s m a l l - s c a l e machines P u b l i c and p r i v a t e l a b o r a t o r i e s , p r i v a t e o r g a n i z a t i o n s and f i r m s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s A,B Notes: A. Develop agreed e v a l u a t i o n methodology f o r u s e r s ; encourage exchange o f d e s i g n and performance d a t a among workers i n d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s ; review s t a t e o f the a r t . B. Develop and promulgate standards by which manufacturers can r e p o r t performance d a t a , and c r i t e r i a by which u s e r s can judge s u i t a b i l i t y t o v a r i o u s a p p l i c a t i o n s . Source: World Bank, 1981: Mobilizing Renewable Energy Technolocjy in Developing Countries: Strengthening Local Capabilities a n d Kesearcn. July, p.j^a. TABLE 3.2 TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE USE OF FUELS DERIVED FROM BIOMASS ForMS of Energy Technology Major Techno log ica l Hho Should F i l l Needs f o r I n f o r n a t i o n Gaps These Gaps and S t a n d a r d i z a t i o n MediuM tempera tu re heat <100-300 d e g . D ( cook ing ) Cooking s t o r e s Local a d a p t a t i o n and f a b r i c a t i o n Deve lop ing c o u n t r y l a b o r a t o r i e s , e x t e n s i o n and a r t i s a n t r a i n i n g s e r v i c e s , p r i v a t e o r g a n i z a t i o n s fl, B, C High t e n p e r a t u r e heat W. + 232 + 42 • 182 2^32 f 15X • 52' + 92 Total Production by Type .HVDRO 4.9 5.7 5.2 6.7 7.1 8.4 10.3 10.8 9.9 13.9 12.9 13.7 8.0 2 Change — •152 -82 + 282 +52 »20Z *2ZV. H2 -82 H02 -82 6^2 -412 of Total 882 862 672 712 692 732 732 732 572 652 522 522 282 Production .THERMAL 0.7 0.9 2.6 2.8 3.1 3. 1 3.8 4.0 7.5 7.6 12.0 12.4 20.5 2 Change — +332 • 1892 8^2 • 132 — +232 H2 8^72 +12 »572 M2 »642 of Total 127! 142 332 292 312 272 272 272 432 352 482 482 722 Production Sources: United Nations. 1983: 1981 yearbook of Uorld Energy Statistics. New Vork: United Nations, pp. 691-707. Federal Office of Statistics. 1981. Annual Abstract of Statistics. Lagos: Federal Office of Statistics printing unit. p. 91. National Electric Power Authority. 1982(b). Poxer System Deuelopment Plan (1982-1990). Lagos: Nigerian Printing Press. September. 114 Over sev e n t y p e r c e n t of the e l e c t r i c i t y produced i n the e a r l y s e v e n t i e s came from h y d r o e l e c t r i c s o u r c e s . O l o f i n (1979) p o i n t s out t h a t , u n t i l r e c e n t l y , N i g e r i a has r e l i e d P r i m a r i l y on the K a i n j i h y d r o e l e c t r i c p l a n t , which was not o p e r a t i n g a t c a p a c i t y . The t h e r m a l s t a t i o n s which were b u i l t b e f o r e the K a i n j i p l a n t , such as those a t O j i R i v e r and I j o r a , were a l l o w e d t o d e g e n e r a t e . Only the f e a r of s e v e r e s h o r t a g e s of e l e c t r i c i t y prompted N i g e r i a t o r e a c t i v a t e t h e s e t h e r m a l s t a t i o n s and b u i l d new ones. In r e c e n t y e a r s the share of hydro i n t o t a l N i g e r i a n e l e c t r i c i t y p r o d u c t i o n has dropped d r a m a t i c a l l y . For example, i n 1982 hydro a c c o u n t e d f o r o n l y about t w e n t y - e i g h t p e r c e n t of t o t a l e l e c t r i c i t y p r o d u c t i o n . Drought and i n c r e a s i n g low water l e v e l s have l e d h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y p l a n t s t o produce f a r below normal c a p a c i t y . A l t h o u g h new hydro s i t e s a r e under c o n s t r u c t i o n or a r e b e i n g p r o p o s e d , i t i s l i k e l y t h a t hydro w i l l c o n t i n u e t o p l a y a l e s s e r r o l e i n t o t a l e l e c t r i c i t y p r o d u c t i o n . Hydro i s a n o n d e p l e t a b l e s o u r c e of power s u p p l y u n l i k e the f u e l s used as i n p u t s i n t o t h e r m a l power p r o d u c t i o n . However, e x p a n s i o n p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r hydropower i n N i g e r i a may c o n t i n u e t o be l i m i t e d by a number of f a c t o r s . These i n c l u d e the problem of p e r i o d i c d r o u g h t , which l e a d s t o e r r a t i c f l u c t u a t i o n s of water l e v e l s ; s i l t i n g due t o e r o s i o n i n the catchment a r e a , which tends t o reduce the l e v e l of r e s e r v o i r s (a problem c u r r e n t l y f a c i n g the K a i n j i hydro s t a t i o n ) ; an i n adequate d a t a base f o r a n a l y s i s c o n c e r n i n g the development of f u r t h e r hydro p r o j e c t s , i n t h a t t h e r e i s no r e l i a b l e d a t a on the t e r r a i n and r a i n f a l l of N i g e r i a , and such i n f o r m a t i o n i s e s s e n t i a l f o r 115 d e t e r m i n i n g the c o u n t r y ' s p o t e n t i a l of h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n . As O l o f i n (1979:314) n o t e s , ... the a c t u a l water energy a v a i l a b l e t o t h i s c o u n t r y i s not known. F e a s i b i l i t y s u r v e y s have always been narrowed down t o p a r t i c u l a r p r o j e c t s and s p e c i f i c aims. The c o u n t r y i s y e t t o have a comprehensive s u r v e y of i t s major water energy p o t e n t i a l s and water r e s o u r c e management. Thermal g e n e r a t i o n of e l e c t r i c i t y , u n l i k e h y dro, does not fa c e the problems of drought or s i l t a t i o n , and the c o u n t r y has a s u f f i c i e n t d a t a base c o n c e r n i n g the e x t e n t of r e s e r v e s of f u e l s used as i n p u t s i n t o t h e r m a l power g e n e r a t i o n . What i s most i m p o r t a n t i s making the optimum c h o i c e of a v a i l a b l e f u e l s t o be combined f o r t h e r m a l e l e c t r i c i t y p r o d u c t i o n . T a b l e 4.13 shows the c o m p o s i t i o n of f u e l s used f o r t h e r m a l e l e c t r i c i t y p r o d u c t i o n . The s h a r e s of o i l and c o a l have been d e c l i n i n g , w h i l e n a t u r a l gas e x p e r i e n c e s s t e a d y i n c r e a s e s i n i t s s h a r e . T h i s can be seen as good p l a n n i n g s t r a t e g y i n t h a t o i l and c o a l r e s o u r c e s a r e b e i n g c o n s e r v e d t h r o u g h the s u b s t i t u t i o n of n a t u r a l gas which would o t h e r w i s e have been f l a r e d . N e v e r t h e l e s s , a u t h o r s such as K a u l e (1979), O l o f i n (1979) and F a l a d e (1979) argue t h a t r e l i a b l e e l e c t r i c i t y s u p p l i e s can be b e t t e r o b t a i n e d t h r o u g h the d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n of f u e l s used i n the p r o d u c t i o n of t h e r m a l e l e c t r i c i t y . I t i s f e a r e d t h a t the p r e s e n t t r e n d toward s o l e dependence on n a t u r a l gas may l e a d t o d r a m a t i c s h o r t a g e s of e l e c t r i c i t y as p l a n n e d p e t r o c h e m i c a l and f e r t i l i z e r p l a n t s come i n t o b e i n g and u t i l i z e l a r g e q u a n t i t i e s of n a t u r a l gas. Moreover, as K a u l e (1979:295) p o i n t s o u t , D i v e r s i f i c a t i o n i n energy u t i l i z a t i o n e n a b l e s the c o u n t r y t o s i m u l t a n e o u s l y d e v e l o p the r e s p e c t i v e t e c h n o l o g i e s . B e s i d e s , i t improves the r e l i a b i l i t y of e l e c t r i c power s u p p l y . i TABLE 4.13 FUEL ENERGY USED FOR THERMAL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION, IN NIGERIA FUEL ENERGY USED FOR THERMAL ELECTRIC POWER DISTRIBUTION OF THE TOTAL FUEL USED FOR THERMAL GENERATION IN MILLION GIGAJOULES ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION YEAR COAL PETROLEUM NATURAL GAS OVERALL TOTAL COAL AS % OF OVERALL TOTAL PETROLEUM AS % OF OVERRALL TOTAL NATURAL GAS AS % OF OVERALL TOTAL 1970 0.02 1.33 1.51 2.86 0.7% 46.5% 52.8% 1971 1.27 2.41 3.68 34.5% 65.5% 1972 0.02 3.27 4.05 7.34 0.3% 44.6% 51.1% 1973 1.39 4.99 6.38 21.8% 78.2% 1974 1.09 8.44 9.53 11.4% 88.6% 1975 1.40 5.25 8.31 14.96 9.4% 35.0% 55.6% 1976 1.25 5.33 12.10 18.68 6.7% 28.5% 64.8% 1977 1.73 6.24 16.40 24.37 7.1% 25.6% 67.3% 1978 2.05 5.08 26.30 33.43 5.1% 15.2% 78.7% 1979 1.47 7.17 30.90 39.54 3.7% 18.1% 78.2% 1980 1.32 6.72 31.20 39.24 3.4% 17.1% 79.5% 1981 1.47 6.30 80.20 87.97 1.7% 7.2% 91.1% Source: United Nations. 1983(a). Energy balances, 1977-1980 and e l e c t r i c i t y p r o f i l e s 1976-1981 f o r selected developing countries and areas. New York: United Nations, pp. 146-260. Federal Office of S t a t i s t i c s . 1981. Annual abstract of s t a t i s t i c s . Lagos: Federal Office of S t a t i s t i c s p r i n t i n g u n i t p.91. 1 1 7 K a u l e goes on t o say t h a t a v i a b l e energy base s h o u l d be s u f f i c i e n t l y f l e x i b l e and p r e d i c t a b l e i n s u p p l y and use t o a l l o w f o r normal and e x i g e n t n a t i o n a l needs. F l e x i b i l i t y i n the c o m p o s i t i o n of f u e l s used f o r t h e r m a l e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n may p e r m i t t h i s s e c t o r t o q u i c k l y r e v e r t t o a l t e r n a t e s o u r c e s of f u e l i n p u t s as the need a r i s e s , r a t h e r than r e l y i n g s o l e l y on one f u e l s ource and t e c h n o l o g y . Consumption of e l e c t r i c i t y i n N i g e r i a has i n c r e a s e d t r emendously over the pa s t few y e a r s , as shown i n T a b l e 4.14. An i n c r e a s e i n r e a l income l e d t o growth i n the demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y i n the household s e c t o r , f o r the o p e r a t i o n of t e l e v i s i o n s , s t e r e o s , a i r c o n d i t i o n e r s and s i m i l a r a p p l i a n c e s . I n c r e a s e d demand by o t h e r s e c t o r s of the economy a r e the r e s u l t of the e x p a n s i o n of i n d u s t r i e s and p u b l i c s e r v i c e a c t i v i t i e s w hich accompanied the o i l revenue boom of the m i d - s e v e n t i e s . The l e v e l of a c t u a l consumption of e l e c t r i c i t y would have been much h i g h e r had r e l i a b l e s u p p l i e s been a v a i l a b l e t o meet the i n c r e a s e d demand. One major cause of ina d e q u a t e power s u p p l i e s i n N i g e r i a i s the l a c k of i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g the l e v e l of consumer demand, and the l a c k of i n f o r m a t i o n f l o w t o NEPA c o n c e r n i n g the major i n d u s t r i a l and r e s i d e n t i a l p r o j e c t s which a r e p l a n n e d by the government, by c o r p o r a t e b o d i e s , or by i n d i v i d u a l e n t r e p r e n e u r s . Most o f t e n , NEPA i s not i n f o r m e d u n t i l a f t e r the p r o j e c t i s com p l e t e d and power s u p p l i e s a r e needed i m m e d i a t e l y . Where NEPA i s u n a b l e t o e x t e n d e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s t o meet sudden demand, the s u b j e c t s o f t e n engage i n i l l e g a l t a p p i n g , t h e r e b y o v e r l o a d i n g the s u p p l y system and c a u s i n g breakdowns, reduced 118 TABLE 4.14 NIGERIAN ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, IN MILLION GIGAJOULES 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 T o t a l Production 14.2 14.8 17.5 21.5 24.8 26.1 % Change +4% +18% +23% +15% +5% Exports 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 % Change Export as % o f To t a 1 Production 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% T o t a l Domestic Consumption 14.2 14.6 17.3 21.3 24.2 25.9 % Change +3% +18% +23% +15% +5% Consumption by Sector .Industries 5.4 4.7 5.0 6.7 8.2 8.3 % Change -13% +5% +35% +22% +1% Share o f T o t a l Consumption 38% 32% 29% 31% 33% 32% . Household 5.9 5.4 8.0 10.8 11.8 12.8 % Change -8% +48% +35% +9% Share o f T o t a l Consumption 42% 37% 46% 51% 48% 49% . A g r i c u l t u r e . Transportation . Other Consumers 2.9 4.5 4.3 3.8 4.6 4.9 % Change +57% -4% -11% +20% +5% Share o f T o t a l Consumption 20% 31% 24% 18% 19% 19% Source: United Nations 1983a: Energy balances, 1977-1980 and E l e c t r i c i t y p r o f i l e 1976-1981 f o r selected developing countries and areas, pp. 146-260. 119 q u a l i t y of s e r v i c e s , and u n r e l i a b i l i t y of s u p p l i e s t o both e x i s t i n g and newly c o n n e c t e d customers. O l o f i n (1979) s u g g e s t s t h a t N i g e r i a adopt a p o l i c y whereby an i n v e n t o r y i s t a k e n of the c o u n t r y ' s e l e c t r i c i t y needs on a r e g u l a r b a s i s . A c c o r d i n g t o O l o f i n such an i n v e n t o r y s h o u l d be based on a c t u a l consumption, e s t i m a t e s of i n c r e a s e s i n consumption i n a r e a s a l r e a d y s u p p l i e d , and e s t i m a t e s of p o t e n t i a l consumption i n a r e a s y e t t o be s e r v e d . Another f a c t o r c o n t r i b u t i n g t o inadequate power s u p p l i e s i n N i g e r i a i s the t o t a l r e l i a n c e on i m p o r t s of equipment and spare p a r t s . An o f f i c i a l of NEPA, i n an e f f o r t t o e x p r e s s the degree of t h i s dependence, remarks t h a t , \"We r e l y on i m p o r t s f o r a l l our equipments, i n c l u d i n g the n a i l s we use.\" ( P e r s o n a l i n t e r v i e w , 1983). W h i l e r e p l a c e m e n t s f o r f a u l t y equipment and p a r t s a r e a w a i t e d , the agency i s unable t o p r o v i d e dependable s e r v i c e . Some s o u r c e s argue t h a t i nadequate power s u p p l i e s i n the c o u n t r y c e n t r e around the i n e f f i c i e n c i e s which r e s u l t from the monopoly h e l d by NEPA, and by the c o n c e n t r a t i o n of d e c i s i o n making i n j u s t one l o c a t i o n . O l o f i n (1979:313), f o r example, a s s e r t s t h a t , ... the A u t h o r i t y has t o o much on i t s p l a t e and cannot s u p e r v i s e , e f f e c t i v e l y , the f u n c t i o n s of p r o d u c t i o n , d i s t r i b u t i o n and m a r k e t i n g of e l e c t r i c energy. The p r e s e n t arrangement of c o n t r a c t i n g out some of t h e s e f u n c t i o n s ( e s p e c i a l l y the d i s t r i b u t i v e f u n c t i o n ) has caused more problems f o r N.E.P.A. because the c o n t r a c t o r s a r e w i t h o u t adequate s u p e r v i s i o n and a r e u s u a l l y a b l e t o a i d i l l e g a l c o n n e c t i o n s . S e c o n d l y , the c e n t r a l i s a t i o n of d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g has re n d e r e d the A u t h o r i t y l e s s e f f e c t i v e and l e s s p r o f i t a b l e . For example, when you r e q u e s t f o r a new meter from a branch o f f i c e , you would be t o l d t h a t the a p p r o v a l f o r and the s u p p l y of the meter w i l l come from Lagos. T h i s i n e f f e c t means t h a t you may not get the meter u n t i l a f t e r a year or two 120 s i n c e the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , p o s t a l and r a d i o - c o m m u n i c a t i o n systems of t h i s l a r g e c o u n t r y a r e not adequate. The magnitude of the problem of e l e c t r i c i t y s h o r t a g e i n N i g e r i a i s made e v i d e n t by the p u b l i c o u t c r y from many q u a r t e r s , r e q u e s t i n g the government t o d e c e n t r a l i z e power g e n e r a t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n u n i t s of NEPA, and break the monopoly i n such a way t h a t a s e p a r a t e agency l o o k s a f t e r each of the t h r e e main bra n c h e s : p r o d u c t i o n , d i s t r i b u t i o n , and m a r k e t i n g ( O l o f i n , 1979). However, such a g i t a t i o n must be weighed a g a i n s t the a b i l i t y of the c o u n t r y t o p r o v i d e s k i l l e d manpower i n adequate numbers t o support such d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n . 4.1.2 T r a d i t i o n a l Energy Resources 4 .1_. 2_. 1_ F o r e s t Energy S l i g h t l y over o n e - t h i r d of the a r e a of N i g e r i a , which t o t a l s 360,000 km 2, i s c l a s s i f i e d as f o r e s t . N i g e r i a can be d i v i d e d i n t o two major f o r e s t r e s o u r c e zones. F i r s t i s the h i g h f o r e s t zone of s o u t h e r n N i g e r i a , which s t r e t c h e s a l o n g the c o a s t i n a b e l t which i s between 100 and 200 km wide, c o v e r i n g a t o t a l a r e a of about 133,000 km 2 or t h i r t y - s e v e n p e r c e n t of the c o u n t r y ' s t o t a l l a n d a r e a (FAO, 1979). F o r e s t r e s e r v e a r e a s i n the h i g h f o r e s t zone c o v e r about 20,000 km 2, or f i f t e e n p e r c e n t of the t o t a l a r e a of the h i g h f o r e s t zone. The r e s t of N i g e r i a ' s f o r e s t a r e a i s c l a s s i f i e d as the savanna f o r e s t zone, and c o v e r s a t o t a l a r e a of about 227,000 km 2, or s i x t y - t h r e e p e r c e n t of the t o t a l a r e a of the c o u n t r y . F o r e s t r e s e r v e a r e a s w i t h i n the savanna f o r e s t zone c o v e r a t o t a l a r e a of about 75,000 km 2, or t h i r t y - t h r e e p e r c e n t of the savanna f o r e s t a r e a s . Of the t o t a l 95,000 km 2 of f o r e s t r e s e r v e a r e a s i n N i g e r i a , 121 about twenty-one p e r c e n t i s i n the h i g h f o r e s t zone and s e v e n t y -n i n e p e r c e n t i n the savanna zone (FAO, 1981b). Most of the f o r e s t a r e a s i n N i g e r i a depend on n a t u r a l r e g e n e r a t i o n t o r e p l e n i s h t h e i r s t o c k of v e g e t a t i o n . The e s t a b l i s h m e n t of f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s d i d not b e g i n i n e a r n e s t u n t i l the f i f t i e s , and the p r o g r e s s so f a r has been slow. By the end of 1977 the a r e a under p l a n t a t i o n i n the h i g h f o r e s t zone was e s t i m a t e d t o be o n l y 135,000 h e c t a r e s (135 km 2 ), r e p r e s e n t i n g o n l y 0.1 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l h i g h f o r e s t a r e a s . T o g e t h e r , the savanna and the h i g h f o r e s t zones p r o v i d e the fuelwood used by N i g e r i a n s . The major use of t r e e s i n N i g e r i a n f o r e s t a r e a s i s as f u e l , w i t h f i r e w o o d consumption a c c o u n t i n g f o r about n i n e t y p e r c e n t of a l l the wood consumed (FAO, 1979). There a r e no d a t a c o n c e r n i n g the volume of a v a i l a b l e s t a n d i n g f o r e s t energy r e s o u r c e s i n N i g e r i a . However, what has been w i d e l y documented i s the r a p i d r a t e of d e p l e t i o n of N i g e r i a n f o r e s t a r e a s and the t r e e s r e q u i r e d f o r f i r e w o o d consumption (World Bank, 1980a; FAO, 1979, 1981b, 1981c). These s t u d i e s c o n c l u d e t h a t because of the h i g h p o p u l a t i o n growth r a t e , r a p i d r a t e of u r b a n i z a t i o n , poor a g r i c u l t u r a l p r a c t i c e s , and drought i n the n o r t h e r n s t a t e s , N i g e r i a f a c e s an impending problem of a c u t e f i r e w o o d s h o r t a g e s . A f i r e w o o d c r i s i s i s c u r r e n t l y i n e v i d e n c e i n s e v e r a l p a r t s of the n o r t h e r n s t a t e s of N i g e r i a , where f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s have d w i n d l e d t o p r e c a r i o u s l y low l e v e l s . F u r t h e r m o r e , the l a c k of v e g e t a t i o n i n most p a r t s of t h e s e s t a t e s i s c a u s i n g s o i l e r o s i o n , a c c e l e r a t i n g the p r o c e s s of d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n and d e c l i n i n g a g r i c u l t u r a l y i e l d s , and r e s u l t i n g i n a s c a r c i t y of wood s u p p l i e s f o r f u e l and 122 c o n s t r u c t i o n p u r p o s e s . A l t h o u g h problems such as t h e s e a r e not as p r e v a l e n t i n s o u t h e r n r e g i o n s of the c o u n t r y , the o v e r a l l r a t e of u r b a n i z a t i o n i s c u r r e n t l y e s t i m a t e d a t about f o u r p e r c e n t per annum, compared t o a r a t e of two p e r c e n t per annum i n the n o r t h e r n r e g i o n s . T h i s c o u l d l e a d t o a d r a m a t i c d e p l e t i o n of f o r e s t a r e a s i n the s o u t h e r n r e g i o n , as the c o n s t r u c t i o n of urban i n f r a s t r u c t u r e d i s p l a c e s the f o r e s t l a n d s . Consumption Of Fuelwood Fuelwood i s the major source of energy used i n r u r a l a r e a s , f o r c o o k i n g and water h e a t i n g . Fuelwood i s a l s o w i d e l y consumed by poor urban d w e l l e r s and, a t t i m e s , by h i g h income urban d w e l l e r s f o r c o o k i n g needs t h a t cannot be s a t i s f i e d by n o n t r a d i t i o n a l h o u s e h o l d f u e l s . R u r a l d w e l l e r s o b t a i n t h e i r fuelwood s u p p l i e s d i r e c t from the f o r e s t s v i r t u a l l y f r e e of ch a r g e . Urban d w e l l e r s purchase t h e i r fuelwood from market a r e a s w i t h i n the c i t i e s , or from r o a d s i d e markets between r u r a l a r e a s and urban c e n t r e s . There a r e no p r e c i s e d a t a c o n c e r n i n g the volume of fuelwood consumption i n N i g e r i a . A r e c e n t study e s t i m a t e s t h a t w e l l over f o r t y m i l l i o n c u b i c metres of fuelwood a r e consumed i n N i g e r i a a n n u a l l y (FAO, 1981c). T h i s FAO study a l s o e s t i m a t e s t h a t the average per c a p i t a fuelwood consumption i n N i g e r i a was 0.6 c u b i c metres i n 1974. A l t h o u g h the demand f o r fuelwood i n N i g e r i a i s e s t i m a t e d t o grow a t an annua l r a t e of 1.2 p e r c e n t between 1975 and 1995, per c a p i t a consumption i s e x p e c t e d t o drop from 0.56 c u b i c metres i n 1975 t o 0.44 c u b i c metres i n 1995, r e p r e s e n t i n g an average a n n u a l d e c r e a s e of 1.2 p e r c e n t 123 (FAO, 1979). These e s t i m a t e s a r e based on the assumption of an o v e r a l l a n n u a l r a t e of u r b a n i z a t i o n of 1.5 p e r c e n t u n t i l 1985, and of two p e r c e n t t h e r e a f t e r i n the n o r t h e r n p a r t s of the c o u n t r y , and f o u r p e r c e n t i n the s o u t h up t o 1995. T h i s t r e n d of u r b a n i z a t i o n i s assumed t o be accompanied by a s i m i l a r i n c r e a s e i n the s u b s t i t u t i o n f o r fuelwood of o t h e r t y p e s of f u e l such as kerosene and, t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t , l i q u e f i e d gas. C u r r e n t e s t i m a t e s of fuelwood consumption i n N i g e r i a , as p r o v i d e d by the U n i t e d N a t i o n s (1983a, 1983b) a r e p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 4.15. The a n n u a l i n c r e a s e of t h r e e p e r c e n t per y e a r i s s u b s t a n t i a l l y lower than the average r a t e of i n c r e a s e i n consumption l e v e l s f o r commercial f u e l s such as p e t r o l e u m energy (20 p e r c e n t ) , and e l e c t r i c i t y (13 p e r c e n t ) . In terms of fuelwood consumption by s e c t o r , the h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r a c c o u n t s f o r v i r t u a l l y a l l fuelwood consumption, w i t h j u s t a s m a l l s hare of t o t a l consumption a c c o u n t e d f o r by the i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r . Consumption of fuelwood by s e c t o r i s shown i n T a b l e 4.16, which demonstrates t h a t the share of fuelwood consumption by the i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r i s d e c l i n i n g . 4.1.3 Overall Energy Consumption Patterns in Nigeria The h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r of the N i g e r i a n economy a c c o u n t s f o r the l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of t o t a l energy consumed i n the c o u n t r y , as shown i n T a b l e 4.17. A l t h o u g h t o t a l consumption by the h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r i s d e c l i n i n g , t h i s d e c r e a s e may be the e f f e c t of s u b s t i t u t i o n of more e f f i c i e n t f u e l s such as kerosene and l i q u e f i e d p e t r o l e u m gas f o r f i r e w o o d . T a b l e 4.18 shows t o t a l energy consumption by t y p e . The s h a r e s of fuelwood and c o a l 1 2 4 TABLE 4.15 FUELWOOD CONSUMPTION IN NIGERIA 1970 - 1981 Year M i l l i o n M e t r i c Tonnes of C o a l E q u i v a l e n t M i l l i o n GJ Annual % Change 1970 23.2 679.8 — 1973 25.1 735.4 +4% 1975 26.5 776.5 + 3% 1977 28.1 823. 1 + 3% 1978 28.9 846.9 + 3% 1979 29.7 871 .8 + 3% 1980 30.7 899.5 + 3% 1981 31 .7 928.8 + 3% S o u r c e s : U n i t e d N a t i o n s 1983b. 1981 S t a t i s t i c a l Year Book. U n i t e d N a t i o n s . New York. p. 285. U n i t e d N a t i o n s . 1983a. Energy B a l a n c e s . 1977 - 1980 And E l e c t r i c i t y P r o f i l e s 1976 - 1981 For S e l e c t e d D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s And A r e a s . U n i t e d N a t i o n s . New York. pp. 146-153. 125 TABLE 4.16 CONSUMPTION OF FUELWOOD IN NIGERIA, BY SECTOR Consumption by S e c t o r ( M i l l i o n GJ) 1977 1978 1979 1980 T o t a l Consumption I n d u s t r i e s ' Share of T o t a l Households' Share of T o t a l 823.1 1.0 (0.1%) 822.1 (99.99%) 846.9 0.8 (0.09%) 846.1 (99.01%) 871 .8 0.1 (0.01%) 871 .7 (99.99%) 899.5 0.1 (0.01%) 899.4 (99.99%) Source: U n i t e d N a t i o n s . 1983a. Energy B a l a n c e s , 1977 - 1980 And E l e c t r i c i t y P r o f i l e s , 1976 - 1981 For S e l e c t e d D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s And A r e a s . U n i t e d N a t i o n s : New York. pp. 146-153. 126 TABLE 4.17 SHARES OF TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION (PERCENT) BY SECTOR IN NIGERIA S e c t o r 1977 1978 1979 1980 Thermal E l e c t r i c t y Generat i o n 2.3 2.9 3.4 3.2 I n d u s t r i e s 9.6 11.0 10.1 10.3 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 8.7 9.8 10.1 11.2 Household 78.9 75.7 76.0 74.9 Agr i c u l t u r e 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other Uses 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 Source: U n i t e d N a t i o n s . 1983a. Energy B a l a n c e s , 1977 - 1980 And E l e c t r i c i t y P r o f i l e s 1976 - 1981 For S e l e c t e d D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s And A r e a s . U n i t e d N a t i o n s . New York: pp. 146-260. 127 TABLE 4.18 SHARES OP TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY FUEL SOURCE IN NIGERIA (PERCENT) F u e l Source 1977 1978 1979 1980 Fuelwood 76.8 73.3 73.6 72.4 P e t r o l e u m 19.0 21 .7 21 .0 21 .8 N a t u r a l Gas 2.1 3.0 3.2 3.4 E l e c t r i c i t y 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.0 C o a l 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 Source: U n i t e d N a t i o n s . 1983a. Energy B a l a n c e s , 1977 - 1980 And E l e c t r i c i t y P r o f i l e s 1976 - 1981 For S e l e c t e d D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s And A r e a s . U n i t e d N a t i o n s . New Y o r k : pp. 146-260. 128 f u e l a r e d e c l i n i n g , w h i l e those of p e t r o l u m p r o d u c t s , n a t u r a l gas and e l e c t r i c i t y a r e on the i n c r e a s e . Fuelwood, however, c o n t i n u e s t o account f o r the l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of t o t a l energy consumed. T o t a l energy consumed, by t y p e , w i t h i n each energy consuming s e c t o r i s shown i n T a b l e 4.19. O i l i s the energy s o u r c e most o f t e n used i n the i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r , w i t h minor c o n t r i b u t i o n s from c o a l and fuelwood energy r e s o u r c e s . Steady d e c r e a s e s i n the s h a r e s of c o a l and fuelwood become even more n o t i c e a b l e when the d i f f e r i n g c o n v e r s i o n e f f i c i e n c e s are t a k e n i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n and t h e i r u s e f u l energy c o n t r i b u t i o n s a r e compared as shown i n T a b l e 4.20. 4.2 Summary And P o l i c y I m p l i c a t i o n s The s t a t i s t i c s show t h a t the l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n of t o t a l energy consumption i n N i g e r i a t a k e s p l a c e w i t h i n the h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r . A l t h o u g h fuelwood c o n t i n u e s t o account f o r the l a r g e s t share of t o t a l h o u s e h o l d energy consumption, i t s share i s d e c l i n i n g w h i l e the s h a r e s of o i l and e l e c t r i c i t y a r e s t e a d i l y i n c r e a s i n g . N e v e r t h e l e s s , e i g h t y p e r c e n t of the p o p u l a t i o n l i v e s i n r u r a l a r e a s , where they a r e c u t o f f from s u p p l i e s of commerical f u e l such as e l e c t r i c i t y and l i q u e f i e d n a t u r a l gas, and where they f a c e inadequate s u p p l i e s of kerosene. As a r e s u l t they a r e f o r c e d t o r e l y on t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of f u e l such as fuelwood. The N i g e r i a n government's p o l i c y of \"even r e g i o n a l development\", a c t i v e l y pursued s i n c e the m i d - s e v e n t i e s , i s g r a d u a l l y c h a n g i n g the r u r a l - u r b a n r a t i o , and i s drawing n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy s u p p l y t e c h n o l o g i e s c l o s e r t o t r a d i t i o n a l r u r a l s e t t l e m e n t s . R a p i d u r b a n i z a t i o n i s b e i n g encouraged T A B L E 4 . 1 9 TOTAL ENERGV CONSUMED, BV SECTOR, AS fl PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL, IN NIGERIA 1977 1978 SECTOR COAL PETROLEUM NftTURflL GftS FIRE UOOO ELECTRICITY 1 COAL PETROLEUM NATURAL GAS FIRE UOOD ELECTRICITV Therna l E l e c t r i c i t y G«nerati on 7.0 25 .5 6 7 . 5 0 .0 0 . 0 6 . 3 15 .2 7 8 . 5 0 .0 0 .0 I n d u s t r i es 4. 1 84 .0 6 .4 1.0 4 . 6 2 .1 8 7 . 0 6 . 4 0 .7 3.9 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 1.9 98 .1 0 . 0 0 .0 0 . 0 1.1 9 8 . 9 0 . 0 0 .0 0 .0 H4usehold 0.0 2.2 0 .0 9 7 . 2 0 . 6 0 . 0 4 . 3 0 . 0 94 .8 0 .9 A c h o i c e such as cheapness, a v a i l a b i l i t y and c o n v e n i e n c e i n use do not s t r o n g l y f a v o u r fuelwood i t may prove i m p o s s i b l e t o promote s t o v e s u s i n g i t , no m atter how good the d e s i g n , ... S i m i l a r l y , C e c e l s k i e t a l . (1979:64) note t h a t , ... w h i l e t r a d i t i o n a l c u l t u r a l r i g i d i t i e s a r e o f t e n c i t e d as o b s t a c l e s t o change i n d e v e l o p i n g s o c i e t i e s , t h e r e a l problem i s q u i t e o f t e n an inadequate v a l u a t i o n by a n a l y s t s of non-monetary or not i m m e d i a t e l y v i s i b l e a m e n i t i e s and d i s a m e n i t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the i n t r o d u c t i o n of new t e c h n o l o g i e s . As t h e s e r e s e a r c h e r s o b s e r v e , t h e r e i s s t r o n g j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r r e s e a r c h i n t o user p r e f e r e n c e s f o r v a r i o u s f u e l t y p e s . CHAPTER 5 THEORETICAL CONTEXT, RESEARCH DESIGN, AND METHODOLOGY 5 . 1 T h e o r e t i c a l C o n t e x t Energy t e c h n o l o g i e s and r e s o u r c e s a r e not ends i n th e m s e l v e s . R a t h e r , they a r e t o o l s used i n a s o c i a l c o n t e x t t o se r v e p u b l i c v a l u e s . I t f o l l o w s , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t p u b l i c v a l u e s p l a y an i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n the d e t e r m i n a t i o n of energy t e c h n o l o g i e s which w i l l be s u i t a b l e f o r and a c c e p t a b l e t o a g i v e n s o c i e t y . The i n t e l l e c t u a l r o o t of t h i s p e r c e p t i o n of the importance of p u b l i c v a l u e s can be t r a c e d t o the h i s t o r y of e p i s t e m o l o g y , or the s c i e n c e of knowledge. T r a d i t i o n a l l y , e p l s t e m o l o g y has been s t u d i e d and taught as a p a r t of p h i l o s o p h y . The g o a l of e p i s t e m o l o g i c a l s t u d i e s has been seen as n o r m a t i v e or p r e s c r i p t i v e i n the sense t h a t the g o a l of t r u e knowledge i s t o see or t o comprehend a u n i v e r s a l r e a l i t y which somehow u n d e r l i e s or t r a n s c e n d s e v e r y day e x p e r i e n c e (Benne, 1976). E a r l y e p i s t e m o l o g i s t s were i n t e r e s t e d i n s e e k i n g o n l y a b s o l u t e v a l i d knowledge, w i t h emphasis on s c i e n t i f i c d e t e r m i n i s m , d i s c a r d i n g i n d i v i d u a l as w e l l as p u b l i c o p i n i o n , p u b l i c v a l u e s , and b e l i e f s which g u i d e and j u s t i f y t he d e c i s i o n s and a c t i o n s of th o s e engaged i n eve r y day e x p e r i e n c e as e x t r a n e o u s v a l u e s which a r e u n s c i e n t i f i c or i l l o g i c a l and not t o be c o n s i d e r e d i n s c i e n t i f i c a l l y a c c e p t a b l e o p e r a t i o n s . The f a i l u r e of t r a d i t i o n a l e p i s t e m o l o g i s t s t o c o n v i n c i n g l y d emonstrate or e x e m p l i f y t h e i r i d e a l of a b s o l u t e v a l i d knowledge, or t o p r o v i d e dependable knowledge about the pe o p l e 136 137 and human systems they s t u d i e d , evoked s e v e r a l c r i t i c i s m s by a u t h o r s such as Dewey (1933), Mannheim (1936), Lewin and G r a b b l e (1945) and P i a g e t (1971). The p e r s i s t e n t c o n c e r n s of t h e s e w r i t e r s i n v o l v e the absence of I n t e r a c t i o n between s c i e n t i s t s , or t e c h n o c r a t s , and the peopl e and human systems s t u d i e d . The l a c k of i n t i m a t e knowledge of the c o n t e x t by t r a d i t i o n a l s c i e n t i s t s , and t h e i r e l i m i n a t i o n of what they p e r c e i v e d as e x t r a n e o u s v a l u e s , i s h a r s h l y c r i t i c i z e d . C r i t i c i s m of t r a d i t i o n a l e p i s t e m o l o g y h e l p e d t o r e l e a s e and empower s o c i a l s t u d i e s t o s h i f t the d e f i n i t i o n of \"knowledge\" from p r o d u c t s of n o r m a t i v e approaches t o an emphasis on p r o c e s s e s , methods of knowing, and \" c l i e n t c o n s u l t a t i o n s \" ( A r g y r i s , 1961; S c h e i n , 1969; A r n s t e i n , 1969; Friedman, 1973). The c o r e emphasis has thus s w i t c h e d t o e f f o r t s t o d e l i n e a t e c l i e n t - p a r t i c i p a n t ' s v a l u e s , or p u b l i c v a l u e s as v a r i o u s i n t e r v e n t i o n s a r e p l a n n e d . As i n c r e a s i n g l i t e r a t u r e emerges i n t h i s a r e a , a t t e m p t s a r e b e i n g made t o d e f i n e the concept of p u b l i c v a l u e s . A c c o r d i n g t o D i l l m a n (1971:236) p u b l i c v a l u e s a r e s i m p l y \" c o n c e p t i o n s of the d e s i r a b l e \" ; W i l l i a m (1967:23) d e f i n e s p u b l i c v a l u e s as \"those c o n c e p t i o n s of d e s i r a b l e s t a t e s of a f f a i r s t h a t a r e u t i l i z e d as c r i t e r i a f o r p r e f e r e n c e or c h o i c e or as j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r proposed and a c t u a l b e h a v i o r . \" The term p r e f e r e n c e can a l s o be used t o r e f e r t o v a l u e s . Economists use the term \" p r e f e r e n c e f u n c t i o n \" t o r e f e r t o a consumer's a c t u a l or p o t e n t i a l e x e r c i s e of c h o i c e . Kahn (1969:98) d e f i n e s p r e f e r e n c e s as \" v a l u e s i n a c t i o n \" . There i s a d i v i d e d view on the r o l e of p u b l i c v a l u e s i n 138 p r e d i c t i n g b e h a v i o r . W i l l i a m (1967:25) d i s m i s s e s v a l u e s as \"unknowable by s c i e n t i f i c a l l y a c c e p t a b l e o p e r a t i o n s \" . Rokeach (1968:550-551), on the o t h e r hand, argues t h a t p u b l i c v a l u e s \" t r a n s c e n d s p e c i f i c o b j e c t s and s p e c i f i c s i t u a t i o n s : v a l u e s have t o do w i t h modes of conduct and e n d - s t a t e s of e x i s t e n c e \" . Those who share Rokeach's view see v a l u e s as a s t a n d a r d or y a r d s t i c k g u i d i n g not o n l y a t t i t u d e s , but a l s o a c t i o n s , c o m p a r i s o n s , e v a l u a t i o n s , and j u s t i f i c a t i o n s of s e l f and o t h e r s . T h i s a u t h o r (1968:551) goes on t o say t h a t a v a l u e system i s , a h i e r a r c h i c a l arrangement of v a l u e , a r a n k - o r d e r i n g of v a l u e s a l o n g a c o n t i n u u n of importance whose f u n c t i o n i t i s t o h e l p choose between a l t e r n a t i v e s and t o r e s o l v e c o n f l i c t s between a l t e r n a t i v e s i n everyday l i f e . F or the purpose of t h i s s t u d y , p u b l i c v a l u e s a r e seen as emerging from s o c i a l and economic c o n d i t i o n s , but once formed they e x e r t d i r e c t i n f l u e n c e on b e h a v i o r and a t t i t u d e . C o n v e r s e l y , b e h a v i o u r i n f l u e n c e s v a l u e s and c o n d i t i o n s , c r e a t i n g a feedback e f f e c t . P u b l i c v a l u e s may be e i t h e r t e r m i n a l or i n s t r u m e n t a l i n n a t u r e . T e r m i n a l v a l u e s a r e o f t e n e x p r e s s e d as a g o a l , w h i l e i n s t r u m e n t a l v a l u e s i n f l u e n c e the means p e o p l e seek t o a c h i e v e t h a t g o a l . For example, the t e r m i n a l v a l u e may be an improved l i f e s t y l e , w i t h the u t i l i z a t i o n of c l e a n , c o n v e n i e n t , s a f e , and r e l i a b l e s o u r c e s of energy b e i n g i n s t r u m e n t a l v a l u e s i n a c h i e v i n g the end g o a l . In a d d r e s s i n g t h e i s s u e of a l t e r n a t e new s o u r c e s of energy f o r the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , the f o c u s w i l l be on the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of i n s t r u m e n t a l v a l u e s . The importance of i d e n t i f y i n g and c o n s i d e r i n g p u b l i c v a l u e s i n the e n u n c i a t i o n of p u b l i c p o l i c i e s and p l a n s has 139 g a i n e d i n c r e a s i n g r e c o g n i t i o n i n r e c e n t y e a r s . In u n i v e r s i t i e s t h e r e i s growing i n t e r e s t i n b e h a v i o r i a l a s p e c t s of human use of the environment; i n government t h e r e i s a need f o r improved methods of a s s e s s i n g p u b l i c p r e f e r e n c e s ; among the p u b l i c t h e r e i s a growing demand f o r p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s . These f a c t o r s combine t o c r e a t e the need t o a s c e r t a i n p u b l i c v a l u e s b e f o r e f o r m u l a t i n g p l a n s of p o l i c i e s which w i l l a f f e c t them ( S e w e l l and B u r t o n , 1971). There are s e v e r a l p r a c t i c a l as w e l l as e t h i c a l reasons f o r i n t r o d u c i n g p u b l i c v a l u e s i n t o the d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s . The i n a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of u s i n g market p r i c e s t o d e t e r m i n e the p u b l i c v a l u e of c e r t a i n goods and s e r v i c e s , such as common p r o p e r t y r e s o u r c e s , i s d i s c u s s e d i n s e v e r a l s t u d i e s ( L i t t l e and M i r r l e e s , 1974; Dasguptu et a l . , 1972; Dorfman and Dorfman, eds., 1972; G a l b r a i t h , 1974; S q u i r e and Van der Tak, 1975). There i s a l s o a need t o o f f s e t p e r s o n a l b i a s e s of p o l i c y makers, and t o reduce the gap between p u b l i c e x p e c t a t i o n s or v a l u e s and t h o s e of p o l i c y makers or r e s e a r c h e r s , as d i s c u s s e d by Lewin (1949), Kelman (1968), Friedman (1973), and Ojo (1981). White (1966), f o r example, i d e n t i f i e s t h r e e ways i n which p e r s o n a l b i a s can i n f l u e n c e the d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s . F i r s t , t h e r e a r e the p e r s o n a l p r e f e r e n c e s of the p e o p l e who make the d e c i s i o n . Second, t h e r e a r e the d e c i s i o n makers' o p i n i o n s as t o what the p u b l i c p r e f e r s . T h i r d a r e t h e i r o p i n i o n s as t o what the p u b l i c s h o u l d p r e f e r . A s y s t e m a t i c study of p u b l i c v a l u e s or p r e f e r e n c e s can uncover such o v e r s i g h t s or m i s c o n c e p t i o n s on the p a r t of p o l i c y makers, t h e r e b y e n s u r i n g t h a t b e n e f i t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a g i v e n p o l i c y f l o w t o , and a r e r e t a i n e d by, t h e i r i n t e n d e d 140 re c i p i e n t s . Knowledge of p u b l i c v a l u e s p l a y s a c e n t r a l r o l e i n the e t h i c a l e v a l u a t i o n of the means chosen t o implement a g i v e n change or i n t e r v e n t i o n (Kelman, 1968). Advocates of a l t e r n a t e , new energy p o l i c y o p t i o n s f o r the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d seem t o be m o t i v a t e d by a d e s i r e t o p r o v i d e t h e s e s o c i e t i e s w i t h d e c e n t r a l i z e d and p a r t i c i p a t o r y energy s u p p l y systems. Yet no attempt has been made t o i d e n t i f y the e x p r e s s e d p u b l i c p r e f e r e n c e s and t a k e them i n t o account i n the p r o c e s s of i n i t i a t i n g p o l i c y o p t i o n s . T h i s study seeks t o p r o v i d e such i n f o r m a t i o n and a n a l y s i s as i t r e l a t e s t o hou s e h o l d energy use i n N i g e r i a . 5.2 R e s e a r c h D e s i g n T h i s r e s e a r c h i s d e s i g n e d t o c o l l e c t the da t a n e c e s s a r y t o examine e x i s t i n g h o u s e h o l d energy use p a t t e r n s and p r e f e r e n c e s i n t he d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , t h r o u g h case s t u d i e s of r u r a l and urban s e t t i n g s w i t h i n N i g e r i a . A second o b j e c t i v e i s the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of f a c t o r s g o v e r n i n g consumer c h o i c e s of v a r i o u s f u e l t y p e s . In ac c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e s e g o a l s the f o c u s of the r e s e a r c h i s the h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r . Brokensha and C a s t r o (1983) d e f i n e the ho u s e h o l d as a group of peopl e who share a common k i t c h e n o r c o o k i n g p l a c e , and who r e c o g n i z e one ho u s e h o l d head. The r e s e a r c h i s d e s i g n e d t o r e c o r d the amount of energy consumed by h o u s e h o l d s ; the f r e q u e n c y w i t h which v a r i o u s f u e l s a r e used; reasons f o r c h o i c e of the most f r e q u e n t l y used f u e l s ; the f i n a n c i a l c o s t s of f u e l energy p u r c h a s e s ; i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of f u e l t y p e s which h o u s e h o l d s would p r e f e r t o use, and why; 141 i n d i c a t i o n s of f u e l t y p e s which households would l i k e t o see s u p p l i e d , i n o r d e r of p r e f e r e n c e ; and u n d e s i r a b l e f a c t o r s i n v o l v e d i n the use of v a r i o u s e x i s t i n g f u e l r e s o u r c e s . G i v e n the purpose of the r e s e a r c h , and the d a t a r e q u i r e m e n t s , two major c o n s i d e r a t i o n s a r e the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of respondents and s e l e c t i o n of a p p r o p r i a t e i n s t r u m e n t s f o r d a t a c o l l e c t i o n . 5.2.1 I d e n t i f i c a t i o n Of The R e s e a r c h P o p u l a t i o n S i x c a s e s of N i g e r i a n h ouseholds a r e examined. These i n c l u d e h ouseholds i n urban c e r t r e s , r u r a l towns, and v i l l a g e s drawn from both n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n r e g i o n s of N i g e r i a . N o r t h e r n N i g e r i a f e a t u r e s s e m i - a r i d a r e a s where f i r e w o o d s u p p l i e s a r e i n s u f f i c i e n t t o meet p r e s e n t needs, and where d e f o r e s t a t i o n as a r e s u l t of f i r e w o o d c o l l e c t i o n i s a d v a n c i n g the pace of d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n i n b o t h s o u t h e r n and n o r t h e r n d i r e c t i o n s . A p e t r o l e u m r e f i n e r y w i t h a p r o d u c i n g c a p a c i t y of 5.8 x 10 9 l i t r e s per y e a r , or 100,000 b a r r e l s per day, i s l o c a t e d i n N o r t h e r n N i g e r i a . In a d d i t i o n , a t l e a s t t w e n t y - f i v e b u l k power s u p p l y s t a t i o n s a r e d i s t r i b u t e d a c r o s s the n o r t h e r n r e g i o n . Human s e t t l e m e n t s i n t h i s a r e a a r e g e n e r a l l y h i g h l y d i s p e r s e d . In terms of c u l t u r e , i n h a b i t a n t s of n o r t h e r n N i g e r i a a r e p r e d o m i n a n t l y Moslem (see f i g u r e 5.1). In c o n t r a s t , s o u t h e a s t e r n N i g e r i a has a humid c l i m a t e , w i t h n a t u r a l v e g e t a t i o n r a n g i n g from savannas t o h i g h f o r e s t s . F i r e w o o d s u p p l y i n t h i s r e g i o n i s not a major problem c u r r e n t l y b u t , i n r e l a t i o n t o demand, l o c a l s u p p l i e s c o u l d become inade q u a t e i n the f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e . The p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y i n t h i s r e g i o n i s r e l a t i v e l y h i g h , and so i s the r a t e of 143 u r b a n i z a t i o n . A p e t r o l e u m r e f i n e r y w i t h a p r o d u c i n g c a p a c i t y of 3.5 x 10 9 l i t r e s per year i s l o c a t e d i n the s o u t h , and t h i s s o u t h e a s t e r n r e g i o n i s c l o s e t o a n o t h e r r e f i n e r y w i t h a p r o d u c i n g c a p a c i t y of 5.8 x 10 9 l i t r e s per year l o c a t e d i n s o u t h w e s t e r n N i g e r i a . At l e a s t t w e l v e b u l k power s u p p l y s t a t i q n s a r e s i t u a t e d i n t h i s s o u t h e a s t e r n r e g i o n . In terms of c u l t u r e , the p e o p l e of s o u t h e a s t e r n N i g e r i a a r e p r e d o m i n a n t l y C h r i s t i a n . T o g e t h e r , the n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n r e g i o n s of N i g e r i a f e a t u r e a d i v e r s i t y of environment, energy s u p p l y systems, and c u l t u r e . S outhwestern N i g e r i a has been e x c l u d e d from the s t u d y , p r i m a r i l y because the U n i t e d N a t i o n s U n i v e r s i t y R u r a l Energy Systems P r o j e c t i s c u r r e n t l y b e i n g c a r r i e d out i n t h i s p a r t of the c o u n t r y ; demands f o r economy of a v a i l a b l e r e s e a r c h r e s o u r c e s n e c e s s i t a t e t h a t t h i s r e s e a r c h be done i n a r e a s not y e t s u b j e c t e d t o t h i s t y pe of s t u d y 1 A second reason f o r the c h o i c e of l o c a t i o n i s t h a t s o u t h w e s t e r n r e g i o n s of N i g e r i a a r e s i m i l a r t o s o u t h e a s t e r n a r e a s i n terms of v e g e t a t i o n , p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y , c u r r e n t s t a t u s of f i r e w o o d s u p p l i e s , and s u p p l i e s of e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy r e s o u r c e s . From each of t h e s e n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n r e g i o n s of N i g e r i a an urban c e n t r e , r u r a l town, and v i l l a g e have been randomly s e l e c t e d from the l i s t of such s e t t l e m e n t s c o m p i l e d by the F e d e r a l Surveys Department i n Lagos d u r i n g 1982. T h i s r e s e a r c h i s based on the b e l i e f t h a t h o u s e h o l d energy use 1 See Morgan, Moss, and Ojo, 1981. R u r a l energy i n s o u t h -w e s t e r n N i g e r i a : A p r e l i m i n a r y r e p o r t . The U n i t e d N a t i o n s U n i v e r s i t y . NRP-41 UNUP-344. 144 p a t t e r n s and user p r e f e r e n c e s can best be u n d e r s t o o d i n the c o n t e x t of a s p a t i a l h i e r a r c h y . As Morgan (1983:121) p o i n t s o u t , \" I t i s im p o r t a n t t o l i n k urban and r u r a l s t u d y s i n c e the c i t y a c t s as the s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l nexus of the s u r r o u n d i n g r u r a l a r e a . \" W i t h i n each of the s i x l o c a t i o n s chosen f o r the s t u d y , h o useholds have been randomly s e l e c t e d , w i t h s t e p s t a k e n t o a v o i d b i a s due t o income and o c c u p a t i o n a l s t a t u s . In the absence of r e c o r d s t o se r v e as a p o i n t of r e f e r e n c e , i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o i n f e r income d i s t r i b u t i o n from s e t t l e m e n t p a t t e r n s . Government r e s e r v e a r e a s , which house h i g h income e a r n e r s a r e v i s i b l y d i s t i n c t from those i n h a b i t e d by m i d d l e income f a m i l i e s . S i m i l a r l y , low income households a r e easy t o i d e n t i f y . I n a d d i t i o n , t he r e s e a r c h e r has sought o t h e r i n d i c a t o r s of income and s t a t u s , such as the s i z e of houses, q u a l i t y of b u i l d i n g m a t e r i a l s , f u r n i s h i n g s , l i v e s t o c k , v e h i c l e s , and s i m i l a r h o u s e h o l d p o s s e s s i o n s . Research s i t e s and the s i z e of h o u s e h o l d samples a r e shown below. URBAN CENTRES RURAL TOWNS VILLAGES REGION Name Sample Name Sample Name Sample S i z e S i z e S i z e N o r t h Kaduna 80 K a c h i a 80 Idon 80 Sou t h e a s t O w e r r i 80 O r l u 80 Ndiukwu 80 5.2.2 Data C o l l e c t i o n In c h o o s i n g the a p p r o p r i a t e i n s t r u m e n t f o r d a t a c o l l e c t i o n , s t a n d a r d books on r e s e a r c h methods have been 145 c o n s u l t e d , as w e l l as l i t e r a t u r e on p r e v i o u s f i e l d s t u d i e s i n the T h i r d World. A wide range of t e c h n i q u e s a r e s u g g e s t e d f o r a s s e s s i n g p u b l i c p r e f e r e n c e s , i n c l u d i n g p u b l i c o p i n i o n p o l l s , b a l l o t boxes, referendums, p u b l i c h e a r i n g s , l e t t e r s t o e d i t o r s or p u b l i c o f f i c i a l s , s t a t e m e n t s of p r e s s u r e groups, s t u d i e s of p e r c e p t i o n and a t t i t u d e s , open-ended q u e s t i o n n a i r e s , and c l o s e d -ended q u e s t i o n n a i r e s ( S e w e l l and B u r t o n , 1971; P o l i t z , 1953; C a n t r i l , 1965; D i l l m a n , 1971; Rokeach, 1968). A l l of t h e s e t e c h n i q u e s have advantages and d i s a d v a n t a g e s , but a semi-s t r u c t u r e d i n t e r v i e w q u e s t i o n n a i r e i s c o n s i d e r e d the most a p p r o p r i a t e f o r t h i s s t u d y . As Merton et a l . (1956) n o t e , the c o m b i n a t i o n of i n t e r v i e w and q u e s t i o n n a i r e i n s t r u m e n t s can h e l p t a p the s u b j e c t i v e c o n c e r n s and e x p e r i e n c e s of the p a r t i c i p a n t s . Open-ended q u e s t i o n s a r e used t o d e t e r m i n e user p r e f e r e n c e by a l l o w i n g i n d i v i d u a l s t o e x p r e s s themselves w i t h o u t r e s t r i c t i n g t h e i r answers t o p r e - d e t e r m i n e d c a t e g o r i e s . The i n t e r v i e w q u e s t i o n n a i r e i s used as a f l e x i b l e t o o l which p e r m i t s the i n t e r v i e w e r t o c o n s i d e r s i g n i f i c a n t cues and i m p l i c a t i o n s c o n t a i n e d i n the r e s p o n s e s . I t i s s i m p l e and e c o n o m i c a l t o a d m i n i s t e r and r e a d i l y a d a p t a b l e t o c r o s s - c u l t u r a l s e t t i n g s . Numerous r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s c o n c e r n i n g energy consumption p a t t e r n s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s have used s e m i - s t r u c t u r e d i n t e r v i e w t e c h n i q u e s i n the d a t a g a t h e r i n g p r o c e s s e s , i n c l u d i n g those by A s r a t (1981), Gamser (1980), Ay (1980), Ojo (1980), Gern (1980), F l e u r e t and F l e u r e t (1978), D i g e r n e s (1980), and Grut (1972). A copy of the q u e s t i o n n a i r e used i n t h i s s tudy i s p r o v i d e d i n appendix 1. 146 5.3 R e s e a r c h Methodology The term \"methodology\" r e f e r s t o the p r o c e s s and p r o c e d u r e s by which we approach problems and seek answers. In s o c i a l s c i e n c e s the term a p p l i e s t o how one c o n d u c t s r e s e a r c h . Two major t h e o r e t i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e s dominate r e s e a r c h methods i n the s o c i a l s c i e n c e s . One i s the p o s i t i v i s t p e r s p e c t i v e l e d by Auguste Comte (1896) and E m i l e Durkheim (1938). P o s i t i v i s t s s e a r c h f o r f a c t s and causes w i t h l i t t l e r e g a r d f o r the s u b j e c t i v e s t a t e of i n d i v i d u a l s b e i n g s t u d i e d . They employ methods such as s u r v e y q u e s t i o n n a i r e s , i n v e n t o r i e s , and demographic a n a l y s i s , a l l of which produce q u a n t i t a t i v e d a t a and a l l o w f o r s t a t i s t i c a l p r o o f of r e l a t i o n s h i p s between o p e r a t i o n a l l y d e f i n e d v a r i a b l e s . The second p e r s p e c t i v e , f o l l o w i n g the l e a d of Max Weber (1949), i s i n t e r p r e t a t i v e , and seeks t o u n d e r s t a n d human b e h a v i o u r from the a c t o r ' s frame of r e f e r e n c e . I n t e r p r e t a t i v e methodology uses q u a l i t a t i v e methods, i n c l u d i n g o b s e r v a t i o n , open-ended i n t e r v i e w s , and p e r s o n a l documents. T h i s study i n v o l v e s b oth p h y s i c a l and s o c i a l a s p e c t s of energy use by h o u s e h o l d s , and n e c e s s i t a t e s a s e a r c h f o r f a c t s and c a u s e s , as w e l l as an u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the reasons b e h i n d i n d i v i d u a l h o u s e h o l d p r e f e r e n c e s and c h o i c e s . A c c o r d i n g l y , the stu d y employs m u l t i p l e r e s e a r c h methods, or a s y n t h e s i s of m u l t i - m e t h o d s ; a c o m b i n a t i o n of d a t a c o l l e c t i o n t e c h n i q u e s . As Brokensha and C a s t r o (1983:96) p o i n t o u t , \"no one method of i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r i n g i s adequate f o r a l l purposes - a l l s h o u l d be supplemented and checked.\" The i n t e r v i e w q u e s t i o n n a i r e was p r e - t e s t e d i n households 147 l o c a t e d i n r u r a l and urban study a r e a s i n N i g e r i a d u r i n g the month of December, 1982. Based on a number of d i f f i c u l t i e s which became apparent d u r i n g t h e s e p r e - t e s t s , the i n s t r u m e n t was r e v i s e d t o enhance c l a r i t y . In a d d i t i o n , the p r e - t e s t s h i g h l i g h t e d the need t o c u r t a i l the q u e s t i o n s t o those e s s e n t i a l t o the main f o c u s of the s t u d y , as r e s p o n d e n t s c o m p l a i n e d of f a t i g u e from the l e n g t h of the p r e - t e s t i n t e r v i e w s . The q u e s t i o n n a i r e used i n the study c o n s i s t s of e i g h t u n i t s . These u n i t s i n c l u d e q u e s t i o n s on the f o l l o w i n g c o n s i d e r a t i o n s : 1. Demographic d a t a ; 2. Types of f u e l s used, i n o r d e r of f r e q u e n c y , f o r s e r v i n g major h o u s e h o l d energy needs, namely c o o k i n g , water h e a t i n g , home l i g h t i n g , and food p r e s e r v a t i o n ; 3. T o t a l monthly amount of f u e l consumed, on the a v e r a g e , i n meeting s p e c i f i c h o u s e h o l d energy needs; 4. Most f r e q u e n t l y used f u e l f o r meeting each of the major h o u s e h o l d energy needs, and reasons f o r each f u e l c h o i c e ; 5. T o t a l monthly amounts of f u e l consumed by a h o u s e h o l d , on the a v e r a g e , and the average f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e by a h o u s e h o l d f o r the purchase of f u e l each month; 6. S u b s t i t u t e f u e l s used by the h o u s e h o l d ; 7. U n d e s i r a b l e a s p e c t s of use of v a r i o u s f u e l t y p e s used by the h o u s e h o l d ; 8. F u e l t y p e s most p r e f e r r e d i n meeting each major h o u s e h o l d need, and the reasons f o r each c h o i c e ; f u e l t y p e s which the h o u s e h o l d would l i k e t o have s u p p l i e d t o them, i n o r d e r of p r e f e r e n c e . 148 U n i t 1 I n f o r m a t i o n i s sought from p a r t i c i p a n t s w i t h r e g a r d t o sex ( q u e s t i o n 1.1), age ( 1 . 2 ) , h o u s e h o l d s i z e ( 1 . 3 ) , s e c t o r i n which the head of the h o u s e h o l d i s employed ( 1 . 4 ) , number of h o u s e h o l d members employed i n v a r i o u s employment s e c t o r s (1.5) and t o t a l monthly h o u s e h o l d income ( 1 . 6 ) . 1 I n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g sex and age e n a b l e s the i n t e r v i e w e r t o ensure t h a t p a r t i c i p a n t s a r e drawn from both sexes and from v a r i o u s age groups. Where ho u s e h o l d members a r e employed i n the p u b l i c s e c t o r , the \" p u b l i s h e d t a b l e of wages\" can be c o n s u l t e d t o v e r i f y the r e p o r t e d t o t a l monthly h o u s e h o l d income, s i n c e the N i g e r i a n government has e s t a b l i s h e d s i x t e e n s a l a r y grade income l e v e l s c o v e r i n g everyone employed i n f o r m a l s e c t o r s of the economy. I n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g h o u s e h o l d s i z e and income l e v e l s i s used t o a n a l y z e the i n f l u e n c e of t h e s e independent v a r i a b l e s on t o t a l monthly h o u s e h o l d energy consumption, as w e l l as on the hou s e h o l d ' s t o t a l monthly f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e f o r f u e l , by r e g i o n . As C e c e l s k i e t a l . (1979:21) n o t e , A more d i r e c t way of a s s e s s i n g the e f f e c t of r i s i n g incomes on t o t a l energy consumption i s t o a n a l y z e the energy consumption p a t t e r n s of d i f f e r e n t income groups w i t h i n the same a r e a or c i t y . U n i t 2 Q u e s t i o n s 2.1 t h r o u g h 2.4 r e q u e s t p a r t i c i p a n t s t o i n d i c a t e whether each f u e l t y pe i s used o f t e n , o c c a s i o n a l l y , or nev e r , f o r h o u s e h o l d c o o k i n g , water h e a t i n g , food p r e s e r v a t i o n , and 1 I n d i r e c t monthly c a s h income i n c l u d e s \"income i n k i n d \" . Households may be r e c e i v i n g f i n a n c i a l s u p port from r e l a t i v e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y r u r a l h o useholds who have f a m i l y members r e s i d i n g and w o r k i n g i n urban c e n t r e s and n e i g h b o r i n g towns. 149 home l i g h t i n g p u r p o s e s , r e s p e c t i v e l y ; q u e s t i o n 2.5 a s k s p a r t i c i p a n t s t o i d e n t i f y the f u e l type used most f r e q u e n t l y f o r s e r v i n g each of the major h o u s e h o l d energy needs. I n f o r m a t i o n d e r i v e d from q u e s t i o n 2.5 i s used t o check responses t o q u e s t i o n s 2.1 t h r o u g h 2.4. I n f o r m a t i o n g e n e r a t e d i n t h i s u n i t i s used t o a n a l y z e p a t t e r n s of use of f u e l t y p e s f o r h o u s e h o l d p u r p o s e s , as w e l l as s i m i l a r i t i e s and d i f f e r e n c e s between r e g i o n s and study a r e a s . U n i t 3 The d a t a o b t a i n e d i n t h i s u n i t c o n c e r n monthly amounts of f u e l consumption f o r c o o k i n g , water h e a t i n g , food p r e s e r v a t i o n , i r o n i n g , home l i g h t i n g , and e n t e r t a i n m e n t ( Q u e s t i o n s 3.1 t o 3.5). In q u e s t i o n 3.5 p a r t i c i p a n t s a r e asked t o i d e n t i f y a l l e l e c t r i c a l a p p l i a n c e s employed by the h o u s e h o l d , and t o e s t i m a t e the average amount of time each a p p l i a n c e i s used on a d a i l y b a s i s . The s i z e of the a p p l i a n c e i s an i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n . U s i n g the t a b l e of Power Demand and Energy Consumption of Domestic A p p l i a n c e s , which i s p r o v i d e d by the N a t i o n a l E l e c t r i c Power A u t h o r i t y , t o t a l h o u s e h o l d consumption of e l e c t r i c i t y i n the use of i n d i v i d u a l a p p l i a n c e s i s c a l c u l a t e d and a l l o c a t e d t o the r e l e v a n t c a t e g o r y of h o u s e h o l d end-use: c o o k i n g , water h e a t i n g , f o o d p r e s e r v a t i o n , i r o n i n g , home l i g h t i n g , or e n t e r t a i n m e n t (see T a b l e 5.1). I n f o r m a t i o n d e r i v e d from t h i s u n i t i s used t o a n a l y z e energy use p a t t e r n s by h o u s e h o l d end-use f o r each r e g i o n and case a r e a . Data from t h i s u n i t can be used f o r a n a l y s i s of the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between independent v a r i a b l e s such as h o u s e h o l d s i z e and income l e v e l s , and the amount of 150 TABLE 5.1 POWER DEMAND AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF DOMESTIC APPLIANCES I N N I G E R I A A p p l i a n c e Type R a t i n g Power Rated No.of h r s . Demand Current t o consume i n i n one u n i t o f K i l o w a t t Amperes e l e c t r i c i t y (kw) (Amps) ( i . e . 1 kwh) Lamp kOv&tt 0.0k 0.2 2 5 6 0watt 0 . 0 6 0 . 2 5 17 lOOwatt 0 . 1 0 O.k 10 Small 7 5 0 v a t t 0 . 7 5 3.2 1 . 3 Medium 8 5 0 w a t t O . 8 5 3 . 6 1.2 T o a s t e r Regular lOOOwatt 1 . 0 k.3 1 K e t t l e Small 2 0 0 0 w a t t 2 . 0 8 . 6 0 . 5 Medium 3 5 0 0 w a t t 3 . 5 15 0 . 3 Water-heater 5 0 1 i t r e 1 2 0 0 w a t t 1.2 5.2 0 . 8 l O O l i t r e 2 5 0 0 w a t t 2 . 5 11 O.k Cooker Small 6 0 0 0 w a t t 6 . 0 2 6 0.2 ( 4 - p l a t e w i t h oven) Regular 8 0 0 0 w a t t 8 . 0 3h 1.2 Large 1 0 5 0 0 w a t t 1 0 . 5 h5 0.1 S i n g l e - p l a t e cooker P o r t a b l e l 8 0 0 w a t t 1 . 8 7 . 7 0 . 6 Fan Table 0.08HP 0 . 0 6 0 . 2 5 17 S t a n d i n g 0.1HP 0 . 7 0.3 Ik C e i l i n g 0 . 3 H P 0.22 ' 0 . 9 ^ 5 A i r - c o n d i t i o n e r Small 1 . 5 H P 1.1 h.l 1 Medium 2 HP 1.5 6 . 5 0 . 7 R e f r i g e r a t o r Small 0.2HP 0 . 1 5 0 . 6 7 Medirum 0.25HP 0.19. . 0 . 8 5 Large 0.3HP 0.22 0 . 9 ^ . 5 T r a n s i s t o r Radio 5 watt 0 . 0 0 5 0 . 0 2 2 0 0 Rasiogram/ S t e r e o system lOOwatt 0.1 o . l * 1 0 T e l e v i s i o n -( B l a c k & White) 2 0 0 w a t t 0.2 0 . 9 5 T e l e v i s i o n ( C o l o u r ) 3 0 0 w a t t 0.3 1 . 3 3 Vacuum Cleaner Small 7 0 0 w a t t 0 . 7 3 . 0 l.k Medium 9 0 0 w a t t 0 . 9 3 . 9 1 Water Pump 0 . 6 H P 1 . 9 2 . 5 Washing Machine Non-Automatic 3 0 0 w a t t 0 . 3 1 . 2 9 3 Automatic 6 0 0 w a t t 0 . 6 2 . 5 2 Automatic With h e a t e r 3 0 0 0 w a t t 3 . 0 13 0.3 1000watt=lkilowatt(lkw) 1 HP =0 .7^6 k i l o w a t t 1 kwh =0ne U n i t o f E l e c t r i c i t y = 1 kw x l h r i . e . 1 k i l o w a t t used f o r 1 hour Source: Nigerian E l e c t r i c i t y Power Autthority. 1982: Niger Power Review. Lagos: Nigerian E l e c t r i c i t y Power Authority Public Relations Department. April-June, p36. 151. energy consumed f o r v a r i o u s end-use p u r p o s e s . U n i t 4 Q u e s t i o n s 4.1 t o 4.4 ad d r e s s reasons f o r the c h o i c e of f u e l t y p e s most f r e q u e n t l y used f o r h o u s e h o l d c o o k i n g , water h e a t i n g , home l i g h t i n g , and food p r e s e r v a t i o n energy needs. I n f o r m a t i o n o b t a i n e d here i s used t o g a i n i n s i g h t i n t o f a c t o r s which e n t e r i n t o the household's d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s i n c h o o s i n g a p a r t i c u l a r type of f u e l , and i n a s s e s s i n g d i f f e r e n c e s and s i m i l a r i t i e s t h a t e x i s t between r e g i o n s and case study a r e a s . U n i t 5 T h i s u n i t seeks s p e c i f i c d a t a c o n c e r n i n g the t o t a l amount of f u e l consumed by h o u s e h o l d s , on the av e r a g e , and monthly f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e s i n the purchase of f u e l s ( q u e s t i o n s 5.1 and 5.2). I n f o r m a t i o n o b t a i n e d here i s a l s o used f o r a n a l y s i s of r e l a t i o n s h i p s between t o t a l f u e l consumption and h o u s e h o l d s i z e or h o u s e h o l d income l e v e l s , as w e l l as between t o t a l f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e s by households f o r f u e l p u r c h a s e s , and each of the independent v a r i a b l e s of ho u s e h o l d s i z e and hou s e h o l d income. U n i t 6 Q u e s t i o n s 6.1 t o 6.4 r e q u e s t p a r t i c i p a n t s t o i n d i c a t e the t y p e s of f u e l s used, i n o r d e r of c h o i c e , as s u b s t i t u t e s f o r the f u e l s most f r e q u e n t l y used f o r c o o k i n g , home l i g h t i n g , food p r e s e r v a t i o n , and water h e a t i n g . I n f o r m a t i o n d e r i v e d from t h i s u n i t p r o v i d e s a check of c o n s i s t e n c y i n responses t o q u e s t i o n s 152 asked i n u n i t 2. U n i t 7 T h i s u n i t e x p l o r e s the q u a l i t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h each c o n v e n t i o n a l h o u s e h o l d f u e l t y pe which the ho u s e h o l d d i s l i k e s t o use. To make energy p r e s c r i p t i o n s i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o u n d e r s t a n d and perhaps a d d r e s s , where f e a s i b l e , c o n c e r n s e x p r e s s e d by the peo p l e whom such p o l i c i e s a r e i n t e n d e d t o b e n e f i t . U n i t 8 Q u e s t i o n s 8.1 t o 8.4 r e q u e s t p a r t i c i p a n t s t o i n d i c a t e f u e l t y p e s they would most p r e f e r t o use f o r h o u s e h o l d c o o k i n g , home l i g h t i n g , water h e a t i n g , and food p r e s e r v a t i o n p u r p o s e s , as w e l l as the reasons f o r such p r e f e r e n c e s . Q u e s t i o n 8.5 a s k s respondent t o i d e n t i f y f u e l t y p e s they would l i k e t o have p r o v i d e d f o r t h e i r use, i n o r d e r of p r e f e r e n c e . I n f o r m a t i o n d e r i v e d from q u e s t i o n s 8.1 t o 8.5 i s used f o r a n a l y s i s of hou s e h o l d f u e l p r e f e r e n c e s , as w e l l as of q u a l i t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h chosen f u e l t y p e s . As Ojo (1980:42) n o t e s , I t i s n e c e s s a r y t o bear i n mind the q u a l i t i e s of the f u e l t y pe which t h e u s e r s opt f o r , i n o r d e r t o f i n d ways of i n c o r p o r a t i n g such q u a l i t i e s i n a l t e r n a t i v e f u e l t y p e s which may be worth promoting m a i n l y because of o t h e r advantages which may not be im m e d i a t e l y apparent t o the u s e r s . F u r t h e r , c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i d e n t i f i e d i n t h i s u n i t a r e compared t o q u a l i t i e s of a l t e r n a t e new energy r e s o u r c e o p t i o n s which a r e b e i n g promoted. D i f f e r e n c e s between r e g i o n s and study a r e a s a r e a l s o h i g h l i g h t e d . 153 5.3.1 F i e l d I n t e r v i e w E x p e r i e n c e s The f i e l d r e s e a r c h began i n e a r n e s t on J a n u a r y 2nd, 1983 and ended a t the end of J u l y of the same y e a r . P r i o r t o a d m i n i s t e r i n g the q u e s t i o n n a i r e , s e v e r a l items c o n t a i n e d i n i t were asked of households l o c a t e d i n r u r a l and urban study s i t e s t hroughout N i g e r i a . A number of m e t h o d o l o g i c a l d i f f i c u l t i e s became apparent a t t h i s p o i n t . For example, a l t h o u g h households were a b l e t o s t a t e the q u a n t i t y of kerosene or gas consumed on a monthly b a s i s i n terms of g a l l o n s and c y l i n d e r u n i t s r e s p e c t i v e l y , consumption of t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of f u e l such as f i r e w o o d , c h a r c o a l , sawdust, and s t r a w s c o u l d be i d e n t i f i e d o n l y i n terms of the number of bund l e s or bags used. These problems of measurement were r e a d i l y a pparent even t o the p a r t i c i p a n t s , some of whom asked how d i f f e r e n c e s i n the weight of b u n d l e s of f i r e w o o d , and i n the s i z e of c o n t a i n e r s used t o c o l l e c t sawdust or c h a r c o a l would be d e a l t w i t h . Such problems a r e not unigue t o t h i s p a r t i c u l a r r e s e a r c h . A r e c e n t p u b l i c a t i o n by G e l l e r e t a l . , e n t i t l e d \"Measuring Cooking F u e l Economy\" (1983), r e v e a l s t h a t s i m i l a r d i f f i c u l t i e s were e n c o u n t e r e d i n a study of r u r a l energy consumption p a t t e r n s of h o useholds i n v i l l a g e s of s o u t h e r n I n d i a ( A s r a t , 1981). In a r r i v i n g a t a s o l u t i o n t o t h i s problem t h e s e r e s e a r c h e r s d e c i d e d t h a t f u e l consumption s h o u l d be measured by weight r a t h e r than volume, s i n c e i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o a c c u r a t e l y measure the volume of n on-uniform f u e l such as wood. In the study of two v i l l a g e s i n Upper V o l t a (Gern e t a l . , 1980), r e s e a r c h e r s d e a l t w i t h the problem of measurement by p r e -w e i g h i n g p i l e s of fuelwood i n the h o u s e h o l d s , then r e w e i g h i n g 154 t h e s e p i l e s a t the end of the day t o determine the amount of f i r e w o o d consumed by each h o u s e h o l d f o r c o o k i n g p u r p o s e s . A c c o r d i n g t o G e l l e r e t a l . (1983), some v i l l a g e r s d i d not u n d e r s t a n d or f o l l o w t h e s e i n s t r u c t i o n s . They noted t h a t one woman t r i e d t o m i n i m i z e f u e l consumption by h e a t i n g l e f t over f o o d , w h i l e i n another house some of the pre-weighed wood was l o s t . F u r t h e r weaknesses of t h i s t e c h n i q u e a r e the assumptions t h a t t h i s f u e l was used o n l y f o r c o o k i n g . The c o s t of m o n i t o r i n g each h o u s e h o l d i n v o l v e d i n the s t u d y i s a f u r t h e r s h o r t c o m i n g of t h i s t e c h n i q u e of measurement. In a study by F l e u r e t and F l e u r e t (1978) h o u s e h o l d members were asked t o d i s p l a y wood q u a n t i t i e s e q u i v a l e n t t o t h a t a c t u a l l y used by them. These p i e c e s of wood were then measured by l e n g t h and c i r c u m f e r e n c e , and the f i n d i n g s used t o c a l c u l a t e the average volume of wood consumed by the ho u s e h o l d on a weekly b a s i s . T h i s study p l a c e s more emphasis on volume than w e i g h t , and i s e x t r e m e l y time consuming. W h i l e a d m i n i s t e r i n g the q u e s t i o n n a i r e f o r t h i s study i n N i g e r i a , the r e s e a r c h e r was equipped w i t h a pre-weighed bundle of f u elwood, and r e s p o n d e n t s i n d i c a t e d how many such bundles w e i g h i n g t w e n t y - f i v e kg are consumed by the ho u s e h o l d each week, on the a v e r a g e . S i m i l a r l y , h o u s e h o l d members were asked t o i n d i c a t e the q u a n t i t y of c h a r c o a l , sawdust, s t r a w , and a n i m a l dung consumed by the household each week, on the b a s i s of p r e -weighed q u a n t i t i e s of these f u e l s they were shown. T h i s t e c h n i q u e proved t o be c o s t - e f f e c t i v e and ensured c o n s i s t e n c y i n the u n i t s of measurement a c r o s s s t u d y s i t e s . F u r t h e r d i f f i c u l t i e s a r o s e as a r e s u l t of e l e c t r i c i t y 155 b e i n g s h a r e d between h o u s e h o l d s . l n c a s e s where each h o u s e h o l d has a s e p a r a t e meter, r e s p o n d e n t s a r e l i k e l y t o have kept a r e c o r d of monthly consumption of e l e c t r i c i t y , and an average f i g u r e can r e a d i l y be o b t a i n e d . Where a s i n g l e meter s e r v i c e s more than one h o u s e h o l d , however, respo n d e n t s a r e asked t o e x p r e s s the average monthly f i n a n c i a l c o n t r i b u t i o n t h e i r h o u s e h o l d makes toward payment of the t o t a l c o s t , g i v e n t h a t each household's share i s a s s e s s e d on the b a s i s of the number of e l e c t r i c a l \" p o i n t s \" or hook-ups c o n t a i n e d i n t h e i r house. T h i s d o l l a r ( n i a r a ) amount i s then used t o c a l c u l a t e average monthly consumption of e l e c t r i c i t y by the h o u s e h o l d , t h r o u g h a p p l i c a t i o n of the f o r m u l a used by the N a t i o n a l E l e c t r i c Power A u t h o r i t y i n c a l c u l a t i n g e l e c t r i c i t y b i l l s . A contemporary w r i t e r , W.B. Morgan, i n h i s a r t i c l e e n t i t l e d \"Urban Demand: S t u d y i n g the Commercial O r g a n i z a t i o n of Wood F u e l S u p p l i e s \" (1983), i d e n t i f i e s the i s s u e of shared e l e c t r i c meters as one of the problems f a c e d by r e s e a r c h e r s c o n d u c t i n g s t u d i e s of f u e l consumption i n the c i t i e s of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . The t e c h n i q u e used i n t h i s s t udy r e p r e s e n t s the o n l y p o s s i b l e way t o overcome t h i s d i f f i c u l t y . E s s e n t i a l t o any d i s c u s s i o n of h o u s e h o l d energy use p a t t e r n s i s i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the t a s k s i n v o l v e d . For example, how much e l e c t r i c i t y i s b e i n g consumed f o r l i g h t i n g p urposes as opposed t o f o o d p r e p a r a t i o n ? Respondents a r e asked t o i d e n t i f y a l l e l e c t r i c a l a p p l i a n c e s employed by the h o u s e h o l d and e s t i m a t e the average amount of time each a p p l i a n c e i s used on a d a i l y b a s i s . Based on the s i z e of the a p p l i a n c e , u s i n g the t a b l e of Power Demand and Energy Consumption of Domestic A p p l i a n c e s , 156 t o t a l h o u s e h o l d consumption of e l e c t r i c i t y i s a l l o c a t e d t o the use of i n d i v i d u a l a p p l i a n c e s f o r s p e c i f i c t a s k s . C r e d i t f o r the use of t h i s t e c h n i q u e must go t o P r o f e s s o r N.I. Ngoka of the U n i v e r s i t y of I f e , who s e r v e d as s u p e r v i s o r of t h i s f i e l d s t u d y and who was the f i r s t t o suggest the use of t h i s method f o r the purpose of t h i s r e s e a r c h . N i g e r i a n households t a k e v a r i o u s forms. Some c o n s i s t of o n l y husband and w i f e and t h e i r c h i l d r e n , w h i l e o t h e r s may encompass two or t h r e e g e n e r a t i o n s . S t i l l o t h e r s a r e made up of a man, h i s wives and t h e i r c h i l d r e n . For the purposes of t h i s r e s e a r c h , h o usehold s i z e i s d e t e r m i n e d on the b a s i s of the number of peopl e who n o r m a l l y cook and eat t o g e t h e r . Some N i g e r i a n households engage i n b u s i n e s s i n v o l v i n g the p r e p a r a t i o n and s a l e of f o o d , and f a i l u r e t o i d e n t i f y such h o u s e h o l d s would r e s u l t i n g r o s s e x a g g e r a t i o n of f u e l c onsumption. In a d m i n i s t e r i n g the q u e s t i o n n a i r e , t h e r e f o r e , i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o s t r e s s t h a t i n f o r m a t i o n i s r e q u i r e d c o n c e r n i n g the amount of f u e l consumed i n meeting o n l y the noncommercial needs of the h o u s e h o l d . Commonly used t e x t b o o k s c o n c e r n i n g s o c i a l r e s e a r c h methods, such as thos e by Babbie (1973), K i d d e r (1981) and L i (1981) emphasize the advantages of p o s s e s s i n g c o n s i d e r a b l e knowledge of the s o c i e t y which i s b e i n g s t u d i e d . N i g e r i a p r o v i d e s an e x c e l l e n t example of the n e c e s s i t y of such knowledge. In n o r t h e r n a r e a s of the c o u n t r y , which a r e p r e d o m i n a n t l y Moslem, i t i s u s u a l l y i m p o s s i b l e t o g a i n a c c e s s t o a house u n l e s s the husband i s home. S i n c e most men a r e a t work d u r i n g the day, i n t e r v i e w s have t o be c a r r i e d out i n the 157 e v e n i n g s . In s o u t h e r n r e g i o n s of N i g e r i a b oth husbands and wives a r e l i k e l y t o work o u t s i d e the home d u r i n g the day. I t i s t h e r e f o r e n e c e s s a r y t o c a r r y out i n t e r v i e w s d u r i n g e v e n i n g hours or on weekends. A l t h o u g h the E n g l i s h language i s commonly used and u n d e r s t o o d throughout the c o u n t r y , the use of l o c a l languages i s more a c c e p t a b l e t o r e s p o n d e n t s , and a b e t t e r r a p p o r t i s e s t a b l i s h e d i f the r e s e a r c h e r f i r s t approaches the respondent through the use of l o c a l g r e e t i n g r i t u a l s . In some c a s e s , u s u a l l y where the respondent i s a member of a low income h o u s e h o l d or an uneducated one, q u e s t i o n s a r e not answered u n t i l an educated r e l a t i v e i s summoned t o a s s e s s the r e s e a c h e r and q u e s t i o n n a i r e . Only a f t e r i t i s d e t e r m i n e d t h a t t h e r e i s no danger i n v o l v e d i n r e s p o n d i n g t o the i n q u i r i e s and t h a t the r e s e a r c h e r i s not a c t u a l l y a t a x a s s e s s o r , w i l l the i n t e r v i e w p r o c e e d . Many r e s p o n d e n t s , p a r t i c u l a r l y among the l e s s e ducated i n urban and r u r a l a r e a s , p e r c e i v e the r e s e a r c h e r as a l i n k between * them and government. A c c o r d i n g l y , they v o i c e a v a r i e t y of c o n c e r n s , u n r e l a t e d t o the r e s e a r c h , a s k i n g t h a t the r e s e a r c h e r communicate t h e i r problems t o the government. Such r e s p o n d e n t s l o b b y f o r r e l a x a t i o n of import r e s t r i c t i o n laws which have caused s h a r p i n c r e a s e s i n the p r i c e of b a s i c h o u s e h o l d i t e m s . Most commonly, v i l l a g e r s e x p r e s s a d e s i r e f o r the d i f f u s i o n of b a s i c f a c i l i t i e s p r o v i d e d i n urban a r e a s , i n c l u d i n g p i p e borne w a t e r , e l e c t r i c i t y and p r o p e r l y c o n s t r u c t e d and m a i n t a i n e d r o a d s . To admit t h a t the r e s e a r c h e r i s p o w e r l e s s t o a s s i s t i n the immediate r e s o l u t i o n of such problems, p a r t i c u l a r l y t h o s e 158 u n r e l a t e d t o the r e s e a r c h , may a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t h i s c r e d i b i l i t y and perhaps the c r e d i b i l i t y of f u t u r e r e s e a r c h e r s . Such an a d m i s s i o n might a l s o a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t the a t t i t u d e of the hou s e h o l d members toward the i s s u e under i n v e s t i g a t i o n . On the o t h e r hand, t o make f a l s e p r o m i s e s i s h i g h l y u n e t h i c a l and even more damaging t o f u t u r e r e s e a r c h . The r e s e a r c h e r must t h e r e f o r e d i s p l a y a genuine i n t e r e s t i n a l l i s s u e s r a i s e d by the res p o n d e n t , and e x p l a i n t h a t j u s t as he i s c u r r e n t l y concerned w i t h i s s u e s r e l a t e d t o h o u s e h o l d energy use, i t i s l i k e l y t h a t f u t u r e r e s e a r c h e r s may i n v e s t i g a t e the o t h e r problems which have been r a i s e d . These respond e n t s a r e encouraged t o c o - o p e r a t e w i t h f u t u r e r e s e a r c h e r s i n e x p r e s s i n g t h e i r c o n c e r n s , w i t h the g o a l of a r r i v i n g a t a s u i t a b l e s o l u t i o n . Ojo (1981:5), i n r e l a t i n g h i s e x p e r i e n c e d u r i n g a survey of r u r a l h o u s e h o l d s i n so u t h w e s t e r n N i g e r i a , n o t e s t h a t , Without i n h i b i t i o n , many i n d i v i d u a l s i n the r u r a l a r e a s make both t r i v i a l and f a r - r e a c h i n g demands on t h e i r own b e h a l f . On the t r i v i a l s i d e , some r e q u e s t r e s e a r c h i n v e s t i g a t o r s t o t a k e t h e i r p h o t o g r a p h s , and o t h e r s demand money f o r any i n f o r m a t i o n they were c a l l e d upon t o s u p p l y . There a r e o t h e r s who make p e n e t r a t i n g remarks on how r e s e a r c h i n v e s t i g a t o r s s h o u l d devote more time t o e n s u r i n g the e f f e c t i v e d i f f u s i o n of c e r t a i n d e v i c e s i n the r u r a l a r e a s ; f o r i n s t a n c e r u r a l p e o p l e o f t e n a p p e a l f o r a r e g u l a r and u n i n t e r r u p t e d s u p p l y of kerosene as a p r e r e q u i s i t e t o the promotion of kerosene s t o v e s . Many o t h e r s contend t h a t no u s e f u l purpose would be s e r v e d by a s k i n g f o r t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e s f o r s o l a r c o o k e r s or o t h e r s i m i l a r d e v i c e s when no n o t i c e a b l e e f f o r t was b e i n g made t o demonstrate such d e v i c e s and t h e i r use. S i m i l a r l y , d u r i n g t h i s r e s e a r c h r e s p o n d e n t s o f t e n r e q u e s t money i n exchange f o r i n f o r m a t i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y low income households i n v i l l a g e s , and c h i l d r e n f r e q u e n t l y r e q u e s t t h a t t h e i r p hotographs be t a k e n . A l t h o u g h t h e s e demands cannot be met, i t 159 i s n e c e s s a r y t o d e a l w i t h them i n a d i p l o m a t i c manner. Requests f o r money a r e j o k e d away, and the r e s e a r c h e r merely p r e t e n d s t o ta k e p i c t u r e s as they a r e r e q u e s t e d . W h i l e i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o bear i n mind the b a s i c p r i n c i p l e s t o be adhered t o i n c o n d u c t i n g s o c i a l r e s e a r c h , as d i s c u s s e d i n s t a n d a r d t e x t b o o k s , i n p r a c t i c e the r e s e a r c h e r must r e l y s t r o n g l y on the use of common sense and c r e a t i v e compromise of t h e o r e t i c a l s t a n d a r d s . These elements prove t o be the key t o su c c e s s of t h i s f i e l d r e s e a r c h i n N i g e r i a . 5.3.2 P r o c e d u r e s F o r Data A n a l y s i s The q u e s t i o n n a i r e i n t e r v i e w response d a t a c o n s i s t of n u m e r i c a l d a t a as w e l l as s i n g l e and m u l t i p l e d e s c r i p t i v e response d a t a . N u m e r i c a l response d a t a c o n c e r n i n g the monthly amount of ho u s e h o l d energy consumption and monthly f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e by hou s e h o l d s f o r f u e l t y p e s consumed ( u n i t s 3 and 5 of the q u e s t i o n n a i r e ) a r e a n a l y s e d i n terms of a r i t h m e t i c means, s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s , and the c o e f f i c i e n t of v a r i a t i o n s . The mean i s s i m p l y the average of a s e t of d a t a , w h i l e s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s and the c o e f f i c i e n t of v a r i a t i o n s d e s c r i b e the v a r i a b i l i t y i n the measurements. In a d d i t i o n , \"independent sample\" t - t e s t s a r e used t o a n a l y s e the d i f f e r e n c e between sample means and p o p u l a t i o n means. The computed t - v a l u e compared t o v a l u e s i n a t - t a b l e a t the a p p r o p r i a t e degree of freedom i s used t o determine whether or not the sample mean of one group i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y g r e a t e r than the mean of the p o p u l a t i o n . I t can be s a i d t h a t the sample mean of one group i n the measurements i s g r e a t e r than the p o p u l a t i o n mean a t a 160 c e r t a i n l e v e l of s i g n i f i c a n c e i f the computed t - v a l u e i s g r e a t e r than the number i n the t a b l e a t t h a t l e v e l ( G e l l e r and D u t t , 1983). T h i s a n a l y s i s p r o v i d e s the mean, s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n , c o e f f i c i e n t of v a r i a t i o n , and t - t e s t c o n c e r n i n g monthly h o u s e h o l d energy consumption by case study a r e a s , t o t a l monthly energy consumption by income c a t e g o r i e s and by h o u s e h o l d s i z e c a t e g o r i e s , as w e l l as on t o t a l monthly f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e s f o r energy consumption by case study a r e a s , income c a t e g o r i e s , and h o u s e h o l d s i z e c a t e g o r i e s . HOUSEHOLD INCOME CATEGORIES AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF RESPONDENTS URBAN CENTRES RURAL TOWNS Monthly Income Kaduna Ow e r r i K a c h i a O r l u T o t a l 4*200 and l e s s 27 23 30 18 98 4*201 t o N400 18 22 26 26 92 4*401 t o N600 17 19 7 18 61 W-601 and above 18 16 17 18 69 TOTAL 80 80 80 80 320 D i f f e r e n t income c a t e g o r i e s a r e used f o r a n a l y s i s of d a t a obtained in v i l l a g e s , because of sharp household income d i s p a r i t i e s between urban centres or rural towns, and v i l l a g e s . DISTRIBUTION OF RESPONDENTS WITHIN INCOME CATEGORIES (VILLAGES) Monthly Income Idon Ndi-Ukwu Total •#50 and l e s s 33 27 60 4*51 t o N100 39 43 82 *H01 and above 8 10 18 TOTAL 80 80 160 161 Where h o u s e h o l d s i z e i s the b a s i s f o r a n a l y s i s of d a t a the same c a t e g o r i e s a r e used f o r a l l case s t u d i e s . DISTRIBUTION OF RESPONDENTS WITHIN HOUSEHOLD SIZE CATEGORIES URBAN CENTRES RURAL TOWNS VILLAGES Household S i z e Kaduna Owerri K a c h i a O r l u Idon Ndi-Ukwu T o t a l 4 or l e s s 24 20 35 24 26 24 153 5 t o 8 32 42 28 44 28 36 210 Over 8 24 18 17 12 26 20 117 TOTAL 80 80 80 80 80 80 480 F u r t h e r a n a l y s i s i s made of the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between independent v a r i a b l e s such as h o u s e h o l d income, h o u s e h o l d s i z e , and h o u s e h o l d energy consumption, t h r o u g h the a p p l i c a t i o n of a l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n model. The r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e s e independent v a r i a b l e s and h o u s e h o l d f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e s f o r f u e l a r e a l s o examined i n t h i s manner. The s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t s which r e s u l t from such a n a l y s i s i n c l u d e R-square ( R 2 ) , t - v a l u e and the s i g n i f i c a n c e of p r o b a b i l i t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the \" t \" s t a t i s t i c , l a b e l l e d PR ( t ) . The R 2 measures how much v a r i a t i o n i n the dependent v a r i a b l e i s a c c o u n t e d f o r by the l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n of the independent v a r i a b l e s . R 2 can range from 0 t o 1, and the l a r g e r i t s v a l u e , the b e t t e r the independent v a r i a b l e s a r e as p r e d i c t o r s of changes i n the dependent v a r i a b l e . The t v a l u e , on the o t h e r hand, i s used t o t e s t f o r the s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e s , p r o b a b i l i t y of the n u l l h y p o t h e s i s t h a t parameter = 0. Another s e t of response d a t a c o n c e r n s f u e l p r e f e r e n c e s , 162 f u e l used most f r e q u e n t l y by h o u s e h o l d s f o r meeting t h e i r energy needs, t y p e s of f u e l t h a t h ouseholds would l i k e t o see d e v e l o p e d f o r f u t u r e use, f a c t o r s e x p l a i n i n g c u r r e n t c h o i c e s of f u e l t y p e s , f a c t o r s e x p l a i n i n g p r e f e r r e d f u e l t y p e s , and d e s i r a b l e a s p e c t s of use of v a r i o u s f u e l t y p e s ( u n i t s 2, 4, 6, 7, and 8 of the q u e s t i o n n a i r e ) . These d a t a a r e a n a l y z e d by c a l c u l a t i n g the p r o p o r t i o n of response d i s t r i b u t i o n t o t o t a l r e sponses and f i n d i n g s a r e e x p r e s s e d i n terms of f r e q u e n c y p e r c e n t a g e s . Output from such a n a l y s i s i n c l u d e s p r e c e n t a g e response t o q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g f u e l t y p e s used most f r e q u e n t l y by h o u s e h o l d s f o r c o o k i n g , water h e a t i n g , l i g h t i n g and food p r e s e r v a t i o n ; p e r c e n t a g e response t o q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g f a c t o r s g o v e r n i n g c u r r e n t c h o i c e s of h o u s e h o l d f u e l s used most f r e q u e n t l y , f o r each l o c a t i o n s t u d i e d and by income and h o u s e h o l d s i z e c a t e g o r i e s ; p e r c e n t a g e response t o q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g f u e l t y p e s which households would p r e f e r t o use f o r c o o k i n g , water h e a t i n g , l i g h t i n g , and food p r e s e r v a t i o n ; p e r c e n t a g e response t o q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g f a c t o r s e x p l a i n i n g the c h o i c e of p r e f e r r e d f u e l t y p e s , f o r each l o c a t i o n s t u d i e d and by income and h o u s e h o l d s i z e c a t e g o r i e s ; p e r c e n t a g e response t o q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g u n d e s i r a b l e a s p e c t s of use of v a r i o u s f u e l t y p e s , f o r each l o c a t i o n s t u d i e d ; p e r c e n t a g e response t o q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g f u e l t y p e s used o f t e n , o c c a s i o n a l l y , or not a t a l l , f o r c o o k i n g , water h e a t i n g , food p r e s e r v a t i o n , and home l i g h t i n g , f o r each l o c a t i o n s t u d i e d ; p e r c e n t a g e response t o f u e l t y p e s which respondents would l i k e t o see promoted f o r h o u s e h o l d use, i n o r d e r of p r e f e r e n c e s . R e s u l t s of t h i s d a t a a n a l y s i s a r e p r e s e n t e d and d i s c u s s e d i n the c h a p t e r s which f o l l o w . CHAPTER 6 ENERGY USE PATTERNS AND PREFERENCES IN THE NIGERIAN DOMESTIC SECTOR T h i s c h a p t e r p r e s e n t s an a n a l y s i s of response d a t a t o q u e s t i o n n a i r e s u r v e y s c o n c e r n i n g h o u s e h o l d energy use i n N i g e r i a . The f i v e a r e a s of i n q u i r y i n c l u d e : (1) the fr e q u e n c y of use of v a r i o u s f u e l t y p e s f o r a v a r i e t y of h o u s e h o l d t a s k s , i n c l u d i n g c o o k i n g , water h e a t i n g , home l i g h t i n g , and foo d p r e s e r v a t i o n , and the reasons f o r c h o o s i n g a p a r t i c u l a r f u e l t y p e ; ( 2 ) d e s i r a b l e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of p r e f e r r e d f u e l s o u r c e s ; (3) u n d e s i r a b l e q u a l i t i e s of f u e l s c u r r e n t l y used by N i g e r i a n h o u s e h o l d s ; ( 4 ) e s t i m a t e d t o t a l monthly consumption of t r a d i t i o n a l t y p e s of energy by households f o r domestic p u r p o s e s , and the r e l a t i o n of such consumption t o so c i o - e c o n o m i c v a r i a b l e s such as l o c a t i o n , h o u s e h o l d s i z e and h o u s e h o l d income; and (5) e s t i m a t e d t o t a l monthly consumption of n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s by hou s e h o l d s f o r domestic p u r p o s e s , and the r e l a t i o n of such consumption t o s o c i o - e c o n o m i c v a r i a b l e s such as l o c a t i o n , h o u s e h o l d s i z e and h o u s e h o l d income. Only t h r o u g h d i s c u s s i o n of such f i n d i n g s can a tho r o u g h u n d e r s t a n d i n g of e x i s t i n g energy use p a t t e r n s be re a c h e d , and o b s t a c l e s t o the a c c e p t a n c e of c u r r e n t l y proposed a l t e r n a t e new energy s u p p l y systems f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s be i d e n t i f i e d . 163 164 Demographic P r o f i l e s By Sample L o c a t i o n W i t h i n N i g e r i a T a b l e s 6.1 t o 6.2 show the average age of the r e s p o n d e n t s i n the s i x sample l o c a t i o n s w i t h i n N i g e r i a , the average monthly h o u s e h o l d income, and average h o u s e h o l d s i z e . The most o b v i o u s r e s u l t of t h i s a n a l y s i s i s the s i g n i f i c a n t income d i s p a r i t i e s between households i n urban c e n t r e s or r u r a l towns and those i n v i l l a g e s . The r e s u l t s show no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e i n h o u s e h o l d s i z e or the average age of r e s p o n d e n t s i n e i t h e r n o r t h e r n or s o u t h e a s t e r n urban c e n t e r s , r u r a l towns, or v i l l a g e s . T a b l e s 6.3 t o 6.5 show the r e s u l t s of a n a l y s i s of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between h o u s e h o l d income and h o u s e h o l d s i z e f o r urban s e t t i n g s and r u r a l towns i n n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n N i g e r i a . As i s e v i d e n c e d by the f i g u r e of R 2 f o r each of t h e s e r e g i o n s , t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p i s weak. A l t h o u g h a p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between th e s e two v a r i a b l e s does e x i s t i n each of the urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns s u r v e y e d , i t i s not s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t as shown by the r e s u l t s of the t -t e s t s . l n the v i l l a g e s , however, t h e r e i s a s i g n i f i c a n t p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between h o u s e h o l d income and h o u s e h o l d s i z e , i n both n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n r e g i o n s of N i g e r i a . D i f f e r e n c e s between the r e s u l t s of a n a l y s i s f o r v i l l a g e s and those f o r urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns can b e s t be u n d e r s t o o d t h r o u g h an a p p r e c i a t i o n of the c o m p o s i t i o n of households i n the v a r i o u s r e g i o n s . V i l l a g e f a m i l i e s and poor f a m i l i e s i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns e x p e r i e n c e h i g h b i r t h r a t e s f o r a v a r i e t y of r e a s o n s . These p e o p l e a r e e i t h e r i g n o r a n t of modern b i r t h 1 6 5 T A B L E 6 . 1 DEMOGRAPHIC P R O F I L E S B Y SAMPLE L O C A T I O N S W I T H I N N I G E R I A L O C A T I O N AVERAGE AGE ( I N YEARS) AVERAGE MONTHLY INCOME ( I N N I A R A ) AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD S I Z E NORTH KADUNA (URBAN C E N T R E ) 3 9 . 2 8 C . V . ( 0 . 9 3 ) S T D . D E V . 8 . 3 5 N 8 0 4 5 9 . 3 0 ( 4 4 . 0 1 ) 3 9 3 . 7 0 8 0 6 . 8 1 ( 0 . 3 7 ) 3 . 2 9 8 0 K A C H I A (RURAL TOWN) C . V . S T D . D E V . N 3 7 . 8 3 ( 0 . 8 8 ) 7 . 8 6 8 0 4 1 8 . 8 9 ( 4 2 . 2 8 ) 3 7 8 . 2 1 8 0 6 . 1 0 ( 0 . 4 0 ) 3 . 5 5 8 0 I D O N ( V I L L A G E ) C . V . S T D . D E V . N 3 9 . 6 5 ( 0 . 7 3 ) 7 . 1 0 8 0 6 9 . 3 9 ( 3 . 3 5 ) 2 9 . 9 8 8 0 6 . 6 7 ( 0 . 3 8 ) 3 . 4 1 1 8 0 SOUTH E A S T O W E R R I (URBAN C E N T R E ) C . V . S T D . D E V . N • 3 9 . 2 3 ( 0 . 9 9 ) 6 . 3 1 8 0 4 5 3 . 0 0 ( 4 4 . 4 9 ) 3 3 7 . 3 0 8 0 6 . 8 9 ( 0 . 3 8 ) 2 . 6 1 8 0 O R L U (RURAL TOWN) C . V . S T D . D E V . N 3 8 . 7 3 ( 0 . 7 1 ) 6 . 3 1 8 0 4 4 1 . 5 1 ( 3 7 . 7 1 ) 3 3 7 . 3 0 8 0 6 . 1 3 ( 0 . 2 9 ) 2 . 6 1 8 0 N D I - U K W U C . V . S T D . D E V . N ( V I L L A G E ) 3 6 . 9 1 ( 0 . 6 7 ) 5 . 9 8 8 0 7 0 . 4 0 ( 3 . 2 1 ) 2 8 . 7 2 8 0 6 . 4 3 ( 0 . 3 3 ) 2 . 9 8 8 0 F O R H O : V A R I A N C E A R E E Q U A L KADUNA t - V A L U E V E R S U S P R O B ( t ) K A C H I A 1 . 1 3 0 . 2 5 9 7 n.s. 0 . 6 6 0 . 5 0 8 9 n.s. 1 . 3 2 0 . 1 9 9 2 n.s. 166 TABLE 6.2 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES BY SAMPLE LOCATIONS WITHIN NIGERIA (Contd) LOCATION AVERAGE AGE AVERAGE MONTHLY (LN YEARS) INCOME (LN NIARA) AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE FOR Ho:VARIANCE ARE EQUAL (contd) KADUNA t-VALUE VERSUS PROB(t) IDON 1.13 0.2567 n.s. 8.83 0.0001 0.26 0.7957 n.s. KACHIA t - VALUE VERSUS PROB(t) IDON 1.54 0.1252 n.s. 8.24 0.0001 1.04 O.2980 n.s. OWERRI t-VALUE VERSUS PROB(t) ORLU 0.41 0.6824 n.s. 0.20 0.8441 n.s. 1.60 0.1105 n.s. OWERRI t-VALUE VERSUS PROB(t) NDI-UKWU 1.93 0.0545 8.58 0.0001 0.92 0.3584 n.s. ORLU t-VALUE VERSUS PROB(t) NDI-UKWU 1.86 0.0643 9.81 0.0001 0.68 0.4986 n.s. KADUNA t-VALUE VERSUS PROB(t) OWERRI 0.04 0.9708 n.s. 0.10 0.9199 n.s. 0.14 0.8868 n.s. KACHIA t-VALUE VERSUS PROB(t) ORLU 0.80 0.4258 n.s. 0.40 0.6902 n.s. 0.05 0.9596 n.s. IDON t-VALUE VERSUS PROB(t) NDI-UKWU 2.64 0.0092 0.22 0.8276 n.s. 0.49 0.6223 n.s. 167 TABLE 6.3 HOUSEHOLD SIZE AS A FUNCTION OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME URBAN SETTINGS WITHIN NIGERIA URBAN CENTRES KADUNA (NORTH) N=80 TEST FOR HO; PARAMETER = 0 b t-VALUE PROB(t) 1.741 0.112 1.50 0.14 (0.193) (0.075) HOUSEHOLD INCOME T FOR Ho: PARAMETERS 8.98 PROB(t) 0.0001 R 2 = 0.03 F-VALUE = 2.24 PROB(F) = 0.14 §_o_ 1 .689 (Q .180) OWERRI (SOUTH-EAST) N=80 TEST FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0_ b t-VALUE 0.122 (0.070) HOUSEHOLD INCOME 1 .74 PROB(t) 0.085 T FOR Ho: PARAMETERS 9.34 PROB(t) 0.0001 R 2 = 0.04 (S t a n d a r d e r r o r F-VALUE = 3.04 i n p a r e n t h e s e s ) PROB(F) = 0.085 168 TABLE 6.4 HOUSEHOLD SIZE AS A FUNCTION OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME RURAL SETTINGS WITHIN NIGERIA RURAL T O W N S KACHIA .(NORTH) N=80 T F O R Ho: P A R A M E T E R F O 8.35 TEST FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 a 0 b t-VALUE PROB(t) 1.538 CO. 184) 0.111 (0.076) HOUSEHOLD INCOME 1.46 0.149 PROB(t) 0.0001 R ' 2 _ 0.03 F-VALUE =2.13 PROB(F) =,0.149 ORLU (SOUTH-EAST) N=80 TEST FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 b t-VALUE PROB(t) 1.946 0.039 0.57 0.571 (0.184) (0'.-O69) HOUSEHOLD INCOME T FOR Ho: PARAMETER^) 10.55 PROB(t) 0.001 R2 = 0.004 F-VALUE =0.32 PROB(F) =0.571 (Standard e r r o r i n parentheses) 169 TABLE 6.5 HOUSEHOLD SIZE AS A FUNCTION OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME VILLAGE SETTINGS WITHIN NIGERIA VILLAGES IDON (NORTH) N=80 a_o_ 1 .136 (0.234) TEST FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 0.512 (0.129) HOUSEHOLD INCOME t-VALUE 3.96 PROB(t) 0.0002 T FOR Ho: PARAMETERS 4.86 PROB(t) 0.0001 R 2 - 0.17 F-VALUE = 15.69 PROB(F) NDI-UKWU (SOUTH-EAST) N=80 §J2. 1 .139 (0.226) TEST FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 b t-VALUE 0.454 (0.119) HOUSEHOLD INCOME 3.81 PROB(t) 0.0003 T FOR Ho: PARAMETERS 5.03 PROB(t) 0.0001 R 2 = 0.16 F-VALUE = 14.52 ( S t a n d a r d e r r o r i n p a r e n t h e s e s ) PROB(F) 170 c o n t r o l methods or do not have a c c e s s t o such d e v i c e s ; because of the h i g h i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e , they w i s h t o i n c r e a s e t h e i r chances of h a v i n g c h i l d r e n who w i l l l i v e t o a d u l t h o o d ; i n the absence of government w e l f a r e systems, c h i l d r e n a r e seen as a form of \" s o c i a l s e c u r i t y \" i n t h a t they a r e e x p e c t e d t o c a r e f o r p a r e n t s who a r e no l o n g e r a b l e t o work. The f i n d i n g t h a t h o u s e h o l d s i z e i n c r e a s e s i n v i l l a g e s as h o u s e h o l d income i n c r e a s e s i s p r o b a b l y due t o the f a c t t h a t polygamy i s , commonly p r a c t i c e d i n t h e s e v i l l a g e s , and the number of wives i s a r e f l e c t i o n of economic s t a t u s i n t h a t the h i g h e r a man's income, the more wives he can a f f o r d t o have. In a d d i t i o n , because of N i g e r i a ' s extended f a m i l y system, a h i g h e r income h o u s e h o l d u s u a l l y i n c l u d e s some poor r e l a t i v e s whose b a s i c needs a r e b e i n g met i n exchange f o r t h e i r l a b o r . A l t h o u g h they a r e not p a r t of the n u c l e a r f a m i l y , they do form p a r t of the h o u s e h o l d as d e f i n e d f o r the purposes of t h i s s t u d y . H i g h e r income c o u p l e s i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns e x p e r i e n c e lower b i r t h r a t e s than do t h e i r v i l l a g e c o u n t e r p a r t s . Polygamy i s l e s s l i k e l y t o be p r a c t i c e d , as educated wives show s t r o n g o p p o s i t i o n by e i t h e r r e f u s i n g t o marry a man who a l r e a d y has a w i f e , or by r e f u s i n g t o c o - o p e r a t e w i t h a husband who i s s e e k i n g t o marry a second w i f e . Once a g a i n , however, the h o u s e h o l d i s l i k e l y t o be made up of extended f a m i l y members who come from poor homes and whose room, b o a r d , and e d u c a t i o n i s p a i d f o r l n exchange f o r t h e i r d omestic s e r v i c e s . The s i z e of t h e s e h i g h e r income f a m i l i e s a r e t h e r e b y i n c r e a s e d , w h i l e lower income ho u s e h o l d s d e c r e a s e i n s i z e . T h i s b a l a n c i n g of household s i z e among income groups d e s p i t e d i f f e r e n c e s i n c h i l d b i r t h 171 r a t e s r e s u l t s i n a weak r e l a t i o n s h i p between h o u s e h o l d income and h o u s e h o l d s i z e f o r the urban and r u r a l s e t t i n g s . 6.1 Frequency Of Use Of V a r i o u s F u e l Types A v a r i e t y of f u e l t y p e s a r e used by N i g e r i a n h o u s e h o l d s f o r d omestic energy needs. C u r r e n t f u e l o p t i o n s from which h o u s e h o l d s make t h e i r c h o i c e s i n c l u d e a n i m a l dung, c h a r c o a l , f i r e w o o d , sawdust, e l e c t r i c i t y , gas and kerosene. To de t e r m i n e the f r e q u e n c y w i t h which c e r t a i n f u e l t y p e s a r e used f o r s p e c i f i c d o m e s t i c p u r p o s e s , r e s p o n d e n t s from urban c e n t r e s , r u r a l towns, and v i l l a g e s of n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n N i g e r i a have been asked t o i n d i c a t e whether each g i v e n f u e l type i s used o f t e n , o c c a s i o n a l l y , or n e v e r , f o r c o o k i n g , home l i g h t i n g , water h e a t i n g , or foo d p r e s e r v a t i o n purposes ( q u e s t i o n s 2.1 t h r o u g h 2.4 of the i n t e r v i e w q u e s t i o n n a i r e ) . Numerous f a c t o r s e n t e r i n t o the d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s i n a r r i v i n g a t a hou s e h o l d ' s c h o i c e of a s p e c i f i c f u e l t y p e . Respondents were asked t o i d e n t i f y t h e s e reasons r e l a t i n g t o t h e i r c h o i c e of f u e l t y p e s most f r e q u e n t l y used i n each of t h e f o u r p r i n c i p a l f u n c t i o n s . R e s u l t s of t h i s a n a l y s i s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n the t a b l e s which f o l l o w . 6.1.1 C u r r e n t Household F u e l C h o i c e s F o r C o o k i n g Purposes T a b l e 6.6 shows the f r e q u e n c y of use of c e r t a i n f u e l t y p e s f o r h o u s e h o l d c o o k i n g p u r p o s e s . Three f u e l t y p e s appear t o dominate a c r o s s urban c e n t r e s , r u r a l towns, and v i l l a g e s , namely f i r e w o o d , gas, and kero s e n e . More f r e q u e n t use of f i r e w o o d by house h o l d s i n s o u t h e a s t e r n N i g e r i a i s l i k e l y due t o the f a c t TOTAL RESPONSES NON-TRADITIONAL FUELS TRADITIONAL FULLS TOTAL RESPONSES tr. •x c tn •z TT. CAS re r m o H 5C n *< SAWDUST FIREWOOD CHARCOAL ANIMAL DRUG OO © 73.75 (59) 26.25 (21) CC o X-L J L J Ul . Ln NJ O X> . w o o i i i i 26.25 , (21) , i i l i OFTEN KADUNA (NORTH) URBAN CENTRES U> C* x-^ CD NJ -51 .79 (29) Ln CN 1 35.71 (20) vC 10.71 (60) t i 17 .86 (10) 26.79 (15) x- • • X-OCCAS-IONALLY KADUNA (NORTH) URBAN CENTRES X-NJ *> 36.32 (154) 63.68 (270) X-NJ X-5 .90 (25) Ln NJ Ln . w vD —i x~- • w X> Ul 18.87 (80) i> •— . •—-1 5.33 (65) -O 4^ OS • s_^ NOT USED KADUNA (NORTH) URBAN CENTRES 00 o 63.75 (51) 36.25 (29) CO o X-CO w . VD w Ui 15 .00 (12) t 1 i i 36.25 (29) i i 1 1 OFTEN OWERRI (SOUTH-EAST) URBAN CENTRES CO o x-U> LJ Ln • Ln --v m X- CN Ln . s—' NJ Ln CO © LJ NJ O X- • v O o i l 13 .75 (11) ! 16.25 (13) 15.00 (12) 25 .00 (20) 1 1 OCCAS-IONALLY OWERRI (SOUTH-EAST) URBAN CENTRES *> o o 38.50 (154) NJ ON J> O- • s—* Ln O X~ o o >— X-s—' NJ Ln 17.00 (68) 17.25 (69) 16.75 (67) 9.75 (39) 15.00 (60) | 20.00 (80) NOT USED OWERRI (SOUTH-EAST) URBAN CENTRES 00 o ^ Ln X- LJ U> . Ln 46 .25 (37) CO o -^v X-LJ NJ X- . c SO >— N) t i i i X-CN LJ • NJ ' Ln i i OFTEN KACHIA (NORTH) RURAL TOWNS Ln CN X-^ X-NJ • L« Os * X-55.36 (31) L« CN vD vO s—' LJ 1 t 10.71 (6) i i 1-J NJ CO >— ' X> sC — Os *-' X-. oJ NJ • w u i OCCAS-IONALLY KACHIA (NORTH) RURAL TOWNS X~ NJ X* «— £v O NJ . — ' U> 59.43 (252) x> NJ X-6.37 (27) >*l Os Ln X- • - x~ Ln 18.87 (80) NJ Ln Ui . s— vD O 16.27 (69) j J^. CO CO • W o NOT USED KACHIA (NORTH) RURAL TOWNS CO o 42.50 (34) ^ L« J> ~J Os • o CD o < 33.75 ; (27) -J. CO -J u> i I i i Ln Os . -~' Ln o t 1 OFTEN ORLU (SOUTH-EAST) RURAL TOWNS CN Ln ^ CN J> LJ s-' b CO -^s LJ NJ CN X- . s-\" vo NJ CN Ln 50.77 (33) Os vD X-LJ . W CN NJ 16.92 (11) 12.31 (8) 7 .69 (15) 1 1 OCCAS-IONALLY ORLU (SOUTH-EAST) RURAL TOWNS X-U» 39.76 (165) 60.24 (250) X* Ln NJ X-O • • w CO NJ 16.39 (68) 18.55 (77) OS Os vO • W Os LJ NJ CN Os • s—' N) 18.07 (75) CO vO o • s—' Nl CC NOT USED ORLU (SOUTH-EAST) RURAL TOWNS Co O i i 100.00 (80) CO o 1 1 i i i i 100 .00 j (80) OFTEN IDON (NORTH) VILLAGES NJ 4> •~v LO 00 LJ LJ LJ 66.67 (16) NJ X-U> 00 . —^' LJ LJ i i f t 1 1 54. 17 (13) >-~. NJ LO • ^ Ui o OCCAS-IONALLY IDON (NORTH) VILLAGES X-Ln CN 50.88 (232) ^ X-NJ vO NJ • X- — * NJ x> Ln Os LT NJ • vC CO ^ o • w u . CO o • ' Ui X* CO © • s-- Ul X-o^ x-w o-sO 16.89 (77) NOT USED IDON (NORTH) VILLAGES •0 o 1 .25 (1) 98.7 5 (79) CC 1 1 vO CO vO -J Ui OFTEN MDI-UKWU (SOUTH-EAST) VILLAGES ti 52.17 (12) X~ w CO w LJ 52.17 j (12) I t X* -vj LJ vO 1 I -^v LJ — X- i i OCCAS-IONALLY MDI-UKWU (SOUTH-EAST) VILLAGES X-Ln 49.67 (227 ) 50.33 (230) x-Ln 17.51 (80) 17 .51 (80) o LJ c ° w NJ -o ui LO • 17 .51 (8 0) NOT USED MDI-UKWU (SOUTH-EAST) VILLAGES IX o n z n K: o c cn Pl o *) n P! 5: > z cz p; K • r P l cn •n O » n O o .— PI » Cl n \"0 z c » > 6 P! cn P: » if. P: tn CC •n K o z X vi O pi c -—• cn P l O t -D cn £ M z 3) C g > z D C cr cn K z Cl If. o -n z Ci P: » > 173 t h a t f i r e w o o d s u p p l i e s a r e more r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e i n t h a t p a r t of the c o u n t r y , u n l i k e n o r t h e r n a r e a s , where drought and d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n account f o r a more r a p i d d e p l e t i o n of n a t u r a l v e g e t a t i o n , c a u s i n g s u p p l i e s of f i r e w o o d t o be e x p e n s i v e and u n r e l i a b l e . F u r t h e r a n a l y s i s of the response d a t a i n d i c a t e s t h a t the p e r c e n t a g e of respondents which o f t e n use t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s such as f i r e w o o d f o r c o o k i n g purposes d e c r e a s e s from v i l l a g e a r e a s t o r u r a l towns t o urban c e n t r e s i n both n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n r e g i o n s of N i g e r i a . C o n v e r s e l y , the p r o p o r t i o n of t o t a l r e s p o n d e n t s o f t e n u s i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s such as gas and kerosene f o r c o o k i n g purposes i n c r e a s e s a l o n g the s p a t i a l h i e r a r c h y from v i l l a g e s t o urban c e n t r e s . However, the number of r e s p o n d e n t s which o f t e n use n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s f o r c o o k i n g purposes on a r e g i o n a l b a s i s i s g r e a t e r i n n o r t h e r n a r e a s of N i g e r i a than i n s o u t h e a s t e r n r e g i o n s . I t i s most p r o b a b l e , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t the pace a t which households adopt n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s f o r c o o k i n g purposes i s l i k e l y t o be i n f l u e n c e d by the a v a i l a b i l i t y of cheap f i r e w o o d s u p p l i e s . F a c t o r s such as h o u s e h o l d income and h o u s e h o l d s i z e a r e a l s o c o n t r i b u t i n g f a c t o r s t o the pace a t which households adopt n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s f o r c o o k i n g p u r p o s e s . A n a l y s i s of response d a t a c o n c e r n i n g f u e l t y p e s o f t e n used f o r c o o k i n g p u r p o s e s , on the b a s i s of monthly income c a t e g o r i e s f o r households w i t h i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns of both n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n r e g i o n s of N i g e r i a , c l e a r l y i n d i c a t e s t h a t the p e r c e n t a g e of t o t a l r e s p o n d e n t s o f t e n u s i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s f o r c o o k i n g purposes i n c r e a s e s from low income c a t e g o r i e s up the s c a l e t o 1 7 4 h i g h income c a t e g o r i e s , as shown i n T a b l e 6.7. 1 S i m i l a r a n a l y s i s on the b a s i s of h o u s e h o l d s i z e shows t h a t the f r e q u e n c y of use of n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l d e c r e a s e s from s m a l l s i z e d h o u s e h o l d s t o medium s i z e d h o u s e h o l d s , t o l a r g e h o u s e h o l d s , as shown i n T a b l e 6.8 2 S m a l l households a r e l i k e l y t o use n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s such as kerosene, w h i l e l a r g e h ouseholds t e n d t o choose f i r e w o o d f o r c o o k i n g p u r p o s e s . G i v e n t h a t s t o v e s u t i l i z i n g kerosene occupy l i t t l e space and g e n e r a t e l i t t l e smoke w i t h i n the c o o k i n g a r e a , i t may be s u r p r i s i n g t h a t l a r g e r h o u s e h o l d s o f t e n use wood b u r n i n g s t o v e s made of stone or c o n s i s t i n g of c a s t i r o n t r i p o d s . However, the l a t t e r a r e c o n s i d e r e d t o be more s t u r d y than the former, s t r o n g enough t o h o l d l a r g e c o o k i n g u t e n s i l s and handle the heavy c o o k i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s of a l a r g e f a m i l y . A l t h o u g h gas and e l e c t r i c s t o v e s a r e a l s o s t u r d y , l a r g e i n v e s t m e n t s a r e r e q u i r e d f o r t h e i r p u r c h a s e , and f u e l s u p p l i e s a r e u n r e l i a b l e . O c c a s i o n a l l y , due t o temporary d i s r u p t i o n s i n the s u p p l y of a p a r t i c u l a r f u e l t y p e , h o u s e h o l d s f i n d i t n e c e s s a r y t o use a d i f f e r e n t t y pe of f u e l t o s a t i s f y h o u s e h o l d energy needs. For example, a ho u s e h o l d which f r e q u e n t l y uses kerosene f o r c o o k i n g purposes may t u r n t o f i r e w o o d when kerosene i s i n s h o r t s u p p l y . T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y l i k e l y t o occur i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns. S i m i l a r l y , a d i f f e r e n t f u e l type might be used h o u s e h o l d s w i t h a monthly income of &200 and l e s s a r e c a t e g o r i z e d as low income h o u s e h o l d s ; those w i t h a monthly income of 4*201-£*400 as m i d d l e income; «401-4*600 as upper m i d d l e income, and **601 and more as h i g h income h o u s e h o l d s . h o u s e h o l d s of f o u r or l e s s members a r e c a t e g o r i z e d as s m a l l h o u s e h o l d s ; m i d d l e s i z e d h o u s e h o l d s a r e co m p r i s e d of f i v e t o e i g h t members; l a r g e h ouseholds have a t o t a l of e i g h t or more members. T A B L E 6.7 THE USE OF TRADITIONAL AND NONTRADITIONAL FUEL TYPES ON A FREQUENT BASIS FOR COOKING PURPOSES BV MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROUPS WITHIN RURAL AND URBAN SETTING OF NIGERIA (PERCENTAGE RESPONSE) URBAN CENTRES RURAL TOWNS KADUNA OWERRI KACHIA ORLY (NORTH) (SOUTH-EAST) (NORTH) (SOUTH-EAST) 41:200 -&201 =K401 *601 =»200 =»201 *401 *601 *200 *201 #401 #=601 *200 =*201 moi =#601 AND TO TO AND AND TO TO AND AND TO TO AND AND TO TO AND LESS =»400 *600 ABOVE LESS #400 4*600 ABOVE LESS #400 4*600 ABOVE LESS #400 4*600 ABOVE N=27 N-18 N-17 N=18 K-23 N=22 N=19 N=16 N=30 N=26 N=7 N=17 N=18 N=26 N-18 N=18 44.44 38.39 17.65 _ 55.62 50.00 21 .05 6.5 60.00 61 .54 17.65 18.33 84.62 22.22 27 .78 TRADITIONAL FUELS (12) (7) (3) (13) (11) (4) (1) (18) (16) — (3) (15) (22) (4) (5) NONTRADITIONAL FUELS 55.56 61 .11 82.35 100.00 43 .48 50.00 78.95 93.75 40.00 38.46 100.00 82.35 16.67 15.38 77.78 72.22 (15) ( I D (14) (18) (10) (11) (15) (15) (12) (10) (7) ( U ) (3) (4) (14) (13) TOTAL RESPONSES 27 18 17 18 23 22 19 16 30 26 7 17 18 26 18 18 NOTE: Traditional fuels are the fuel types currently used on a frequent basis for cooking purposes by a l l respondents across income categories within the sample of Vil l a g e s Idon and Mdi-Ukwu in the study. T A B L E 6 . 8 THE USE OF TRADITIONAL.AND NONTRADITIONAL FUEL TYPES FOR COOKING PURPOSES QN .A.(FREQUENT BASIS BY HOUSEHOLD, SIZE GROUPS WITHIN RURAL AND URBAN SETTINGS OF NIGERIA (PERCENTAGE RESPONSE) URBAN CENTRES RURAL TOWNS VILLAGES KADUMA (NORTH) OWERRI (SOUTH-EAST) KACHIA (NORTH) ORLU (SOUTH-EAST) IDON (NORTH) MDI-UKWU (SOUTH-EAST) 4 AND LESS N=2A 5 TO 8 N=32 ABOVE 8 N=24 4 AND LESS N=20 5 TO 8 N=42 ABOVE 8 N=18 4 AND LESS N=35 5 TO 8 N=28 ABOVE 8 N=17 , A AND LESS N=24 5 TO 8 N=AA ABOVE 8 N=12 4 AND LESS N=26 5 TO 8 N=28 ABOVE 8 N=26 4 AND LESS N=24 5 TO 8 N=36 ABOVE 8 N=28 TRADITIONAL FUELS 8.33 (2) 18.75 (6) 54.17 (13) 20.00 (A) 35.71 (15) 55.56 (10) 25.71 (9) 50.00 (14) 6A.71 (11) Al .67 (10) 63.6A (28) 66.67 (8) 100.00, (26) 100.00 (28) 100.00 (26) 95.83 (23) 100.00 (3 6) 100.00 (20) NONTRADITIONAL FUELS 91.67 (22) 81.25 (26) 45.83 (11) 80.00 (16) 64.29 (27) 44 .44 (8) 74.29 (26) 50.00 (IA) 35.29 (6) 58.33 (IA) 36.36 (16) 33.33 (4) - - - 4.17 (1) - -TOTAL RESPONSES 2A 32 24 20 42 18 35 28 17 2A 44 12 26 28 26 24 36 20 1 7 7 o c c a s i o n a l l y because a s p e c i f i c need cannot be met by the f u e l w hich i s most o f t e n used. For example, f i r e w o o d may be chosen over kerosene f o r the purposes of r o a s t i n g or g r i l l i n g f o o d . The N i g e r i a n households s u r v e y e d u t i l i z e a g r e a t e r v a r i e t y of f u e l t y p e s f o r o c c a s i o n a l use than i s found i n the e x a m i n a t i o n of f u e l s which a r e used most f r e q u e n t l y . N e v e r t h e l e s s , s p e c i f i c f u e l t y p e s f i g u r e p r o m i n e n t l y i n t h e i r r e s p o n s e s . In both n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n r e g i o n s of the c o u n t r y , kerosene i s the most p o p u l a r n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l used by h o u s e h o l d s on an o c c a s i o n a l b a s i s . However, even where a h o u s e h o l d o f t e n uses n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l f o r c o o k i n g p u r p o s e s , f i r e w o o d or i t s d e r i v a t i v e s i s r e p o r t e d by the l a r g e s t p e r c e n t a g e of respon d e n t s t o be used o c c a s i o n a l l y . Perhaps t h e s e t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s a r e seen as b e i n g more f l e x i b l e f o r use on an o c c a s i o n a l b a s i s because of the low c o s t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e i r use. In summary, kerosene and f i r e w o o d appear t o be the most p o p u l a r f u e l t y p e s f o r c o o k i n g purposes i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns i n b o t h n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n N i g e r i a , w h i l e v i l l a g e h o useholds r e l y almost e n t i r e l y on f i r e w o o d t o s a t i s f y t h e i r c o o k i n g needs. Kerosene i s the o n l y n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l t y p e a v a i l a b l e t o v i l l a g e h o u s e h o l d s f o r c o o k i n g and o t h e r d o m e s t i c p u r p o s e s . C u r r e n t l y , the f r e q u e n t use of n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s f o r c o o k i n g purposes by households d e c r e a s e s from urban c e n t r e s t o r u r a l towns, and i s r a r e i n the v i l l a g e s . The use of n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s on a f r e q u e n t b a s i s f o r c o o k i n g purposes i s most p o p u l a r among upper m i d d l e and h i g h income h o u s e h o l d s , w h i l e the use of t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s i s most 178 common w i t h low income h o u s e h o l d s . In a d d i t i o n , s m a l l h o u s e h o l d s use n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s f o r c o o k i n g purposes more f r e q u e n t l y than do l a r g e h o u s e h o l d s , which t e n d t o use t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s . i - ' l ' l - l F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The Ch o i c e Of F r e q u e n t l y Used F u e l s For Household Cooking Purposes The reasons f o r which p a r t i c u l a r t y p e s of f u e l a r e f r e q u e n t l y chosen by a ho u s e h o l d f o r i t s c o o k i n g needs a r e many and v a r i e d . They range from the e x t e n t t o which a h o u s e h o l d i s f a m i l i a r w i t h a g i v e n f u e l , t o the l e n g t h of time i t t a k e s t o cook a meal. The p r i c e of a p a r t i c u l a r f u e l i s , of c o u r s e , of s i g n i f i c a n t i m p o r t a n c e , as i s the r e l i a b i l i t y of i t s s u p p l y . S i m i l a r l y , t he l e v e l of d i f f i c u l t y i n o b t a i n i n g a f u e l i s an im p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n , as i n the use of f i r e w o o d , f o r example, which i s r e p o r t e d by households s u r v e y e d t o be l a b o r i n t e n s i v e as i t must be g a t h e r e d , t r a n s p o r t e d , and s p l i t . I t a l s o r e q u i r e s a g r e a t d e a l of a t t e n t i o n t o m a i n t a i n the heat by i n t e r m i t t e n t l y r e p l a c i n g burned p i e c e s of wood w i t h new ones, and e n s u r i n g t h a t the flames a r e d i s t r i b u t e d e v e n l y around the c o o k i n g u t e n s i l s . S a f e t y i s an i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n , as respond e n t s e x p r e s s c o n c e r n over the use of gas because of i t s h i g h l y i n f l a m m a b l e n a t u r e . In co m p a r i s o n , f i r e w o o d , kerosene, and e l e c t r i c i t y a r e c o n s i d e r e d t o be r e l a t i v e l y s a f e . The type of s t o v e and u t e n s i l s r e q u i r e d i n the use of a g i v e n f u e l type i s a l s o of g r e a t i m p o r t a n c e , from the i n i t i a l i nvestment c o s t , t o the degree of smoke and soot g e n e r a t e d t h r o u g h i t s usage, i t s a b i l i t y t o handle heavy c o o k i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s , and the 179 a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of the c o o k i n g method f o r a p a r t i c u l a r type of f o o d . T a b l e 6.9 shows the p e r c e n t a g e response t o f a c t o r s g o v e r n i n g the c h o i c e of the v a r i o u s f u e l t y p e s which a r e f r e q e n t l y used by the households which were s u r v e y e d . As one moves up the s p a t i a l h i e r a r c h y from v i l l a g e s t o urban c e n t r e s , f u e l c h o i c e s f o r c o o k i n g purposes a r e i n c r e a s i n g l y governed by the c l e a n l i n e s s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h usage of a p a r t i c u l a r f u e l and the l e n g t h of time r e q u i r e d t o cook a meal when u s i n g the f u e l . C l e a n l i n e s s and s h o r t c o o k i n g t i m e s a r e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s , and the i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of t h e s e q u a l i t i e s by h o u s e h o l d s i n urban c e n t r e s i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the f i n d i n g t h a t the use of n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s i n c r e a s e s from v i l l a g e s t o r u r a l towns and urban c e n t r e s . S i m i l a r l y , the reasons i d e n t i f i e d by v i l l a g e h ouseholds f o r t h e i r c h o i c e s of f r e q u e n t l y used f u e l s , namely t h e i r i n e x p e n s i v e n e s s and the low i n i t i a l i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d f o r the n e c e s s a r y s t o v e and u t e n s i l s , a r e q u a l i t i e s of t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s , which a r e shown t o be used most f r e q u e n t l y i n v i l l a g e s . I t i s s i g n i f i c a n t t o note t h a t f a c t o r s such as whether a g i v e n f u e l type i s renewable or e c o l o g i c a l l y s a f e were not mentioned by any of the households i n t e r v i e w e d as c o n s i d e r a t i o n s i n t h e i r c h o i c e of f u e l t y p e s . Yet t h e s e q u a l i t i e s f i g u r e p r o m i n e n t l y i n proposed new energy r e s o u r c e a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , and a r e c i t e d as reasons why t h e s e o p t i o n s ought t o be w i d e l y adopted w i t h i n the T h i r d World. As the f i n d i n g s of t h i s s t u d y demonstrate, however, i t i s u n r e a l i s t i c t o e x pect t h a t a h o u s e h o l d w i l l be concerned about the l o n g - t e r m T A B L E 6.9 FACTORS GOVERNING THE CHOICES OF FUEL TYPES IN CURRENT USE ON A FREQUENT BASIS FOR COOKING PURPOSES BY HOUSEHOLDS WITHIN RURAL AND URBAN SETTINGS OF NIGERIA FUEL-RELATED URBAN CENTRES RURAL TOWNS VILLAGES TOTAL / RESPONSES / / N-480 KADUNA (NORTH) N-80 OWERRI (SOUTH-EAST) N-80 KACHIA (NORTH) N-80 ORLU (SOUTH-EAST) N-80 IDON (NORTH) N-80 MDI-UKWU (SOUTH-EAST) N-80 FAMILIAR 7.50 (6) 2.50 (2) - - _ _ 10.00 (8) RELIABLE SUPPLY 26.25 (21) 42.50 (34) 38.75 (31) 52.50 (42) 60.00 (48) 72.50 (58) 48.75 (234) SAFE 43.75 (35) 47 .50 (38) 40.00 (32) 28.75 (23) 46.25 (37) 40.00 (32) 41 .04 (197) CLEAN 65.00 (52) 58.75 (47) 52.50 (42) 43.75 (35) _ 1 .25 (O 36.88 (177) EASY TO OBTAIN/ HANDLE 12.50 (10) - 22.50 (18) 13.75 ( H ) - 2.50 (2) 8.54 (41) INEXPENSIVE 12.50 (10) 22.50 (18) 32.50 (26) 38.75 (31) 55.00 (44) 57.50 (46) 36.46 (175) STOVE/APPLIANCE RELATED LOW INVESTMENT COSTS 32.50 (26) 25.00 (20) 26.25 (21) 33.75 (27) 50.00 (40) 42.50 (34) 35.00 (168) YIELDS QUICK RESU-LTS/ EASY TO OPERATE 55.00 (44) 63.75 (51) 53.75 (43) 43.75 (35) - - 36.04 (173) HANDLES LARGE COOK-ING REQUIREMENTS 15.00 (12) 12.50 (10) 15.00 (12) 21.25 (17) 40.00 (32) 45.00 (36) 24.79 (119) MULTIPLE-PURPOSE USE 30.00 (24) 25.00 (20) 18.75 (15) 23.75 (19) 48.75 (39) 38.75 (31) 30.83 (148) 181 e f f e c t s of u s i n g a p a r t i c u l a r f u e l when they a r e f a c e d w i t h the more immediate problems of a f f o r d a b i l i t y and r e l i a b i l i t y of s u p p l y . I f an o f f e r e d f u e l t y pe i s t o be adopted by t h e s e r e s p o n d e n t s i t w i l l have t o f e a t u r e a t l e a s t a l l of the advantages of the f u e l s which a r e c u r r e n t l y a v a i l a b l e t o them. Even t h e n , c u r r e n t f u e l s a r e l i k e l y t o be chosen over the new o p t i o n by v i r t u e of the f a c t t h a t they a r e f a m i l i a r . T h i s i s a f a c t which has been i g n o r e d by i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h b o d i e s i n the i n t r o d u c t i o n of a l t e r n a t e new energy r e s o u r c e o p t i o n s f o r the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . For example, a l t h o u g h s o l a r energy i s a v i r t u a l l y f r e e source of energy, i t s advantages w i l l be weighed by p o t e n t i a l u s e r s i n r e l a t i o n t o e x i s t i n g f u e l s u p p l y o p t i o n s and t h e i r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , i n c l u d i n g r e l i a b i l i t y of s u p p l y , low i n i t i a l i n vestment c o s t s , a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s f o r the amount and t y p e of c o o k i n g which i s p l a n n e d , the l e n g t h of c o o k i n g time r e q u i r e d , and f a m i l i a r i t y w i t h the f u e l t y p e . S o l a r c o o k i n g t e c h n o l o g i e s , d e s p i t e t h e i r a dvantages, have not been e v a l u a t e d i n the c o n t e x t of t h e s e q u a l i t i e s . The same can be s a i d of b i o g a s . These o v e r s i g h t s s h o u l d be c o r r e c t e d i f t h e s e t e c h n o l o g i e s a r e t o make any s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n t o the energy needs of t h e d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . 6.1.2 Current Fuel Choices For Water Heating Purposes As i s shown i n T a b l e 6.10, f i r e w o o d , k e r o s e n e , gas and e l e c t r i c i t y a r e the f u e l t y p e s f r e q u e n t l y chosen by h o u s e h o l d s f o r water h e a t i n g i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns, w h i l e o n l y kerosene and f i r e w o o d are used f o r t h i s purpose i n the v i l l a g e s s u r v e y e d . These d i f f e r e n c e s a r e p r i m a r i l y due t o the f a c t t h a t TOTAL RESPONSES NON-TRADITIONAL FUELS H H C z \"*! c r-tA T0TAL RESPONSES KEROSENE > Vi ELECTRICITY SAWDUST -r, t r © g CHAHCOAL 1 1 OB © *->. OD o* — w • — OS w • w CD o C O *- -—' o o C as w Kt K> © [ r — OD W • W> i i OFTEN KADUNA (NORTH) c V i n N i m OS KJ 68.29 (36) A Ul KJ •» 9- • as Kt -K. KI Ut OK KI • •—' as Ul — w KI KI OD Ut • O i i *» • © — *• KI • — OK W i t 0CCAS-I0NAIXT KADUNA (NORTH) U> kfi OP 29.90 (119) •v. o *\" o sC 0D ui as » . w w J> . U> >W OD © o • w 5 W Kt OP &? 0D © © • o NOT USED KADUNA (NORTH) as o o» Kt . v W» o KI •— Kt CB . Wi © OS o A Ul Ut O • w \\s> O KI W A KI U) . i i \"-v Kt K- K> 0D . s~' Wi © 1 1 1 1 OFTEN OWERRI (SOUTH-EAST) >« *» 75.53 (71) A KI KJ J> W . ' *- to 4> 38.30 (36) OK a ut OS A Ul — o « • w QD W» «• . v K> 9-•— w> w» • • . KI 9> t 1 OCCAS-IONALLY OWERRI (SOUTH-EAST) w OD &• o KI KJ \"-J *\"J Kt \\0 • Kt CB u> as »• *- . w a* w o* —' • CB KI Wi 19.69 (76) r- Kt *—' CD 9- • W «K v-v K> 0D O o . Ul NOT USED OWERRI (SOUTH-EAST) co o —. o» KJ • v o o KJ LA OS . ~ g OS o ** 0K KI W W » . o • w t i — W 0D . — © © 1 1 OFTEN KACHIA (NORTH) RURAL TOWNS — o J> ut >£> • w o u> K> O* CB . 9-KI OK OS • 9-<£ —. K) — o o> • 0D i i KI U> O* • 1 1 -~« Kt KI • © OCCAS-IONALLY KACHIA (NORTH) RURAL TOWNS Ul X» s© • « *:* o Ul — Ul w> . KJ KI w> u> Ul • w> OS sC © . Wi KI OK c • V OS <© o • w> OD . Wl NOT USED KACHIA (NORTH) RURAL TOWNS QC O «—. w » 0\" • Wl o A *-U> KJ O 09 o A Ul . K) — Wt . w KJ OH — w< o •— as w> • w> 1 1 A *> Ul KJ *N . © 1 1 OFTEN ORLU (SOUTH-EAST) RURAL TOWNS CB O OS o • /— Ul KJ — b OS A Ut Ul 4> o . 0D © • A KI Kt KI © • \"V KJ KJ k«l *• • •w W> 1 1 1 1 OCCAS-IONALLY ORLU (SOUTH-EAST) RURAL TOWNS U) «© Ut v u> Ut *» ««• . o 65.90 1(239) u> sO u> K> C* Wt • V W *- . —' K) 0D «• — w> • •«* «o w Wi Kt W< Kt -v OK © » o o • OK 20.36 (80) NOT USED ORLU (SOUTH-EAST) RURAL TOWNS CB O OB O ~8 •>» o K> • -8 OS o —- o OS . —• o o *-* © Kt . © i i OFTEN IDON (NORTH) j < E —* KJ CB . Ut Kt U> • w KJ - 1 1 1 1 - s KI OD . Kt U> • KI OCCAS-IONALLY IDON (NORTH) j *> KJ *-KJ , e-KI Wl -J. o Ul • u> vC KI • •—' w as — o ^ as o . 9 as ->J © • — © QD - J © . -* © 9-C o* w i> NOT USED IDON (NORTH) j OD O w —. OS wO • OB o — ut w 1 1 — as 9- 9-•D • Kt OFTEN HDI-UKWU (SOUTH-EAST) o PI (A 0\" — KJ W» w> • OK o» w KJ w i r —- OK — KI © • © W w» • w i i OCCAS-IONALLY HDI-UKWU (SOUTH-EAST) «-o-*• KJ Or *— —- r-KI O ©V 01 — O\" OK f tr 9 OD \"KJ o • 0C © • ao »o o • J> KI - j . ox Wi • 0> OB >J o ' NOT USED HDI-UKWU (SOUTH-EAST) H Q *Q £*£ > H W r x >5 S g H C C S W \" 1 W K ) •H « > sea n o \"o 3 5 R 1-3 tr1 H O 28T 183 t h e r e a r e no e l e c t r i c i t y or gas s u p p l y systems i n t h e s e v i l l a g e s . I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o note t h a t a l t h o u g h e l e c t r i c i t y i s f r e q u e n t l y used f o r water h e a t i n g i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns, i t i s not used f o r c o o k i n g purposes on a f r e q u e n t b a s i s . S i m i l a r l y , kerosene i s not o f t e n used f o r c o o k i n g purposes i n the v i l l a g e s , but i s f r e q u e n t l y used f o r water h e a t i n g . T h i s may be a t t r i b u t e d t o the f a c t t h a t w h i l e meals must be cooked t h r e e t i m e s a day, seven days a week, hot water i s r e q u i r e d by N i g e r i a n households on an i n f r e q u e n t b a s i s and i n s m a l l q u a n t i t i e s , f o r purposes such as p r e p a r i n g beverages l i k e t e a or c o f f e e . W h i l e an e l e c t r i c s t o v e f o r c o o k i n g purposes may be q u i t e e x p e n s i v e , water can be h e a t e d i n an e l e c t r i c k e t t l e . S i m i l a r l y , a l t h o u g h kerosene s t o v e s a r e q u i t e adequate f o r water h e a t i n g p u r p o s e s , they a r e u s u a l l y c o n s i d e r e d t o be too s m a l l and the f u e l too e x p e n s i v e , t o cook meals on a d a i l y b a s i s . Moreover, hot water i s s t o r e d i n a thermos as a means of c o p i n g w i t h u n r e l i a b l e or i r r e g u l a r s u p p l i e s of f u e l s such as gas, k e r o s e n e , or e l e c t r i c i t y . W i t h i n the months of December and J a n u a r y , d u r i n g the harmattan season when a c o o l d r y wind blows i n o f f the Sahara d e s e r t , h ouseholds a c r o s s N i g e r i a r e q u i r e hot water f o r b a t h i n g p u r p o s e s . At such a t i m e , households which o r d i n a r i l y use e l e c t r i c i t y f o r water h e a t i n g may t u r n t o cheaper and more r e a d i l y a c c e s s i b l e s o u r c e s of f u e l . A l t e r n a t i v e l y , some hous e h o l d s i n the urban and r u r a l towns have f a s h i o n e d an a p p l i a n c e c o n s i s t i n g of an e l e c t r i c m e t a l c o i l which i s p l a c e d i n a l a r g e bucket of water t o be h e a t e d . V i l l a g e h o useholds 184 i n d i c a t e t h a t a s i d e f r o m f i r e w o o d and k e r o s e n e , no o t h e r f u e l s a r e u s e d on a f r e q u e n t b a s i s f o r w ater h e a t i n g , and o n l y a s m a l l p e r c e n t a g e o f h o u s e h o l d s i n d i c a t e t h a t o t h e r f u e l s a r e u s e d o c c a s i o n a l l y f o r w a t e r h e a t i n g p u r p o s e s . Among t h e h o u s e h o l d s s u r v e y e d , t h e use o f n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s f o r water h e a t i n g i n c r e a s e s f r o m r u r a l towns t o u r b a n c e n t r e s , w h i l e t h e use of t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s , namely f i r e w o o d , d e c r e a s e s a l o n g t h e s p a t i a l h i e r a r c h y f r o m v i l l a g e s t o r u r a l towns and u r b a n c e n t r e s . T h e s e f i n d i n g s a r e c o n s i s t e n t w i t h s i m i l a r a n a l y s i s c o n c e r n i n g t h e use o f f u e l s f r e q u e n t l y u s e d f o r c o o k i n g p u r p o s e s . S i m i l a r l y , as shown i n T a b l e 6.11, t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f r e s p o n d e n t s u s i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s f o r w ater h e a t i n g i n c r e a s e s f r o m low income h o u s e h o l d s up a l o n g t h e s p e c t r u m t o h i g h income h o u s e h o l d s , w h i l e t h e r e v e r s e i s t r u e f o r t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s . T a b l e 6.12 d e p i c t s t h e use of t r a d i t i o n a l and non-t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s f o r w ater h e a t i n g p u r p o s e s on a f r e q u e n t b a s i s , by h o u s e h o l d s i z e . T h i s a n a l y s i s f i n d s t h a t t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s a r e u s e d by l a r g e f a m i l i e s more t h a n t h e y a r e by s m a l l f a m i l i e s f o r w ater h e a t i n g , w h i l e t h e use o f n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s d e c r e a s e s as h o u s e h o l d s i z e i n c r e a s e s . £«1'2..1_ F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The C h o i c e Of F u e l T y p e s F r e q u e n t l y Used F o r H o u s e h o l d Water H e a t i n g A wide r a n g e o f s i m i l a r i t i e s a r e d e p i c t e d i n f a c t o r s g o v e r n i n g t h e c h o i c e o f f u e l t y p e s f r e q u e n t l y u s e d f o r h o u s e h o l d c o o k i n g and w ater h e a t i n g n e e d s . A f f o r d a b i l i t y , r e l i a b i l i t y of s u p p l y , s a f e t y , and c l e a n l i n e s s a r e among t h e r e a s o n s g i v e n . T A B L E 6 . 1 1 THE USE OF TRADITIONAL AND NONTRADITIONAL FUEL TYPES ON A FREQUENT BASIS FOR WATER HEATING PURPOSES BY MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROUPS WITHIN RURAL AND URBAN SETTING OF NIGERIA (PERCENTAGE RESPONSE) URBAN CENTRES RURAL TOWNS KADUNA OWERRI KACHIA ORLY (NORTH) (SOUTH-EAST) (NORTH) (SOUTH-EAST) 14200 #201 #401 #601 #200 #201 #401 #601 #200 #201 #401 #601 #200 #201 #=401 #601 AND TO TO AND AND TO TO AND AND TO TO AND AND TO TO AND LESS #400 #600 ABOVE LESS MOO #600 ABOVE LESS #400 #600 ABOVE LESS #400 #600 ABOVE N=27 N=18 M-17 N=18 N=23 N=22 H-19 N=16 N=30 K=26 tt=7 K-17 M=18 M=26 U=18 N=18 44.44 16.67 _ 43 .48 36 .36 50.00 38.46 17.65 17 .78 69.23 _ 11.11 TRADITIONAL FUELS (12) (3) - - (10) (8) - - (15) (14) - (3) (14) (18) - (2) NONTRADITIONAL FUELS 55.56 83.33 100.00 100.00 56.52 63 .64 100.00 100.00 50.00 61.54 100.00 82.35 22.22 30.77 100.00 88.89 (15) (15) (17) (18) (13) (14) (19) (16) (15) . (16) (7) (14) (4) (8) (18) (16) TOTAL RESPONSES 27 18 17 18 23 22 19 16 30 26 7 17 18 26 18 18 NOTE: T r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s a r e the f u e l types c u r r e n t l y used on a f r e q u e n t b a s i s f o r water h e a t i n g purposes by a l l respondents a c r o s s income c a t e g o r i e s w i t h i n the sample of v i l l a g e s s e t t i n g s of Idon and Mdi-ukwu i n the study. T A B L E 6 . 1 2 THE USE OF TRADITIONAL AND NONTRADITIONAL FUEL TYPES ON A FREQUENT BASIS FOR WATER HEATING PURPOSES BY HOUSEHOLD SIZE GROUPS WITHIN RURAL AND URBAN SETTINGS OF NIGERIA (PERCENTAGE RESPONSE) URBAN CENTRES RURAL TOWNS VILLAGES KADUNA (NORTH) OWERRI (SOUTH-EAST) KACHIA (NORTH) ORLU (SOUTH-BAST) IDON (NORTH) MDI-UKWU (SOUTH-EAST) 4 AND LESS N-24 5 TO 8 N-32 ABOVE 8 N-24 4 AND LESS N-20 5 TO 8 N-42 ABOVE 8 N-18 4 AND LESS N-35 5 TO 8 N-28 ABOVE 8 N-17 4 AND LESS N-24 5 TO 8 N-44 ABOVE 8 N-12 4 AND LESS N-26 5 TO 8 N-28 ABOVE 8 N-26 4 AND LESS N-24 5 TO 8 N=36 ABOVE 8 N-28 TRADITIONAL FUELS -18.75 (6) 37.50 (19) 10.00 (2) 21 .43 (9) 38.89 (7) 22.86 (8) 39.29 (11) 52.94 (9) 37 .50 (9) 40.91 (18) 58.33 (7) 96.15 (25) 92.86 (26) 96.15 (25) 83 .33 (20) 86.11 (31) 90.00 (18) NONTRADITIONAL FUELS 100.00 (24). 81 .25 (26) 62.50 (15) 90.00 (18) 78.57 (33) 61.11 (11) 77.14 (27) 60.71 (17) 47.06 (8) 62.50 (15) 59.09 (26) 41.67 (5) 7.69 (1) 7.14 (2) 3 .85 (1) 16.67 W 13.89 (5) 10.00 (6) TOTAL RESPONSES 24 32 24 20 42 18 35 28 17 24 44 12 26 28 26 24 36 20 187 In the case of water h e a t i n g , however, q u i c k r e s u l t s a r e an i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n , as re s p o n d e n t s a r e concerned w i t h the speed w i t h which a chosen f u e l t y pe can heat w a t e r , ease of o p e r a t i o n of the r e q u i r e d a p p l i a n c e and, where n e c e s s a r y , the a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of a g i v e n f u e l t y pe f o r h e a t i n g l a r g e volumes of water. I t i s f o r reasons such as th e s e t h a t e l e c t r i c i t y i s most o f t e n chosen by households i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns f o r the purpose of h e a t i n g w a t e r . Respondents' c h o i c e s of f u e l f o r water h e a t i n g , t o g e t h e r w i t h the reasons f o r those c h o i c e s , once a g a i n i n d i c a t e t h a t the p r o c e s s of u r b a n i z a t i o n i s accompanied by changes i n the c h o i c e s and l i f e s t y l e s of h o u s e h o l d members. As one moves up the s p a t i a l h i e r a r c h y , the r e p o r t e d importance of i n e x p e n s i v e or e a s i l y o b t a i n e d f u e l s u p p l i e s d i m i n i s h e s , perhaps because of i n c r e a s e d income l e v e l s , improved s t a n d a r d s of l i v i n g , and a wider range of a v a i l a b l e f u e l s , b o th t r a d i t i o n a l and non-t r a d i t i o n a l , f o r urban d w e l l e r s . C l e a n l i n e s s and e f f i c i e n c y become the major c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , as shown i n T a b l e 6.13, and n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s r e p l a c e t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of energy. Renewable and e c o l o g i c a l l y s a f e s o u r c e s of energy which have been proposed f o r use i n the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e a l s o i n e x p e n s i v e . S o l a r energy, f o r example, i s v i r t u a l l y f r e e but i s not a v a i l a b l e i n the morning or e v e n i n g , when hot water i s needed most, and i t t a k e s l o n g e r t o heat water than do c o n v e n t i o n a l methods. I n i t i a l i nvestment c o s t s f o r s o l a r c e l l s or h e a t e r s a r e l i k e l y t o be h i g h , and s i n c e t h i s i s an u n f a m i l i a r t e c h n o l o g y , i t i s not s u r p r i s i n g t h a t i t has not been r e a d i l y adopted. S i m i l a r l y , b i o g a s i s a proposed energy T A B L E 6 . 1 3 FACTORS GOVERNING THE CHOICE OF FUEL TYPES IN CURRENT USE ON A FREQUENT BASIS FOR WATER HEATING PURPOSES BY HOUSEHOLDS WITHIN RURAL AND URBAN SETTINCS OF NIGERIA. (PERCENTAGE RESPONSE) URBAN CENTRES RURAL TOWNS VILLAGES TOTAL / RESPONSES / KADUNA OWERRI KACHIA ORLU IDON MDI-UKWU (NORTH) (SOUTH-EAST) (NORTH) (SOUTH-EAST) (NORTH) (SOUTH-EAST) / H-480 N-80 N-80 N-80 N-80 N-80 N-80 FUEL RELATED FAMILIAR - - 5.00 _ 13 .75 10.00 4.79 - (4) - (11) (8) (23) RELIABLE SUPPLY 33.75 42.50 43.75 51 .25 82.50 72 .50 54.38 (27) (34) (35) (41) (66) (58) (261) SAFE 57.50 66.25 50.00 4 2.50 40.00 55.00 51.88 (46) (53) (40) (34) (32) (44) (249) CLEAN 60.00 65.00 56.25 51 .25 2.50 7 .50 40.42 (48) (52) (45) (41) (2) (6) (194) EASY TO OBTAIN/ 26.25 12.50 22.50 13 .75 2.50 8.75 14.38 HANDLE (21) (10) (18) (U) (2) (7) (69) INEXPENSIVE 18.75 30.00 41.25 52.50 56.25 62.50 . 43 .54 (15) (24) (33) (42) (45) (50) (209) STOVE/APPLIANCE RELATED LOW INVESTMENT 20.00 31.25 28.75 36.25 45.00 33.75 32.50 COSTS (16) (25) (23) (29) (36) (27) (156) YIELDS QUICK RESULTS/EASY 62.50 52.50 47 .50 52.50 12.50 - 37 .92 TO OBTAIN (50) (42) (38) (42) (10) - (182) HANDLES LARGE WATER HEATING 21.25 - 5.00 - - 25.00 8.54 REQUIREMENTS (17) - (4) - - (20) (41) MULTIPLE- 45.00 25.00 11 .67 PURPOSE USE - - - - (36) (20) (56) CO CO 1 8 9 a l t e r n a t i v e which r e q u i r e i n e x p e n s i v e i n p u t s of a n i m a l dung, but s i n c e t h i s p r o c e s s i s seen as d i r t y or unh y g e n i c , t h e r e i s l i k e l y t o be a g r e a t d e a l of r e s i s t a n c e t o i t s use. Based on these f i n d i n g s c o n c e r n i n g h o u s e h o l d f u e l c h o i c e s f o r c o o k i n g purposes and water h e a t i n g , i t i s a l r e a d y o b v i o u s t h a t h o useholds w i t h i n N i g e r i a base t h e i r c h o i c e of f u e l t y p e s on a f a r more s o p h i s t i c a t e d l e v e l of r e a s o n i n g than has been r e c o g n i z e d by i n t e r n a t i o n a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s w o r k i n g i n t h i s a r e a t o d a t e . 6.1.3 C u r r e n t Household F u e l C h o i c e s F o r Food P r e s e r v a t i o n P u rposes Food p r e s e r v a t i o n i s of p a r t i c u l a r importance t o N i g e r i a n h o u s e h o l d s , whose a c c e s s t o s o u r c e s of f r e s h food i s i r r e g u l a r a t b e s t . Even i n urban c e n t r e s , where t h e r e a r e major market c e n t r e s , h o u s e h o l d members a r e u n l i k e l y t o be a b l e t o t r a v e l the l o n g d i s t a n c e between commercial and r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s on a d a i l y b a s i s , nor a r e they a b l e t o purchase l a r g e q u a n t i t i e s of , fo o d , as the t r i p i s o f t e n made on f o o t . In v i l l a g e s , market days o c c u r on a r o t a t i n g b a s i s , u s u a l l y on a f o u r day c y c l e . For most households the t r i p t o the v i l l a g e market i s made by f o o t , and d i s t a n c e p r o h i b i t s t r a v e l t o o t h e r v i l l a g e s on the market c y c l e . Goods a r e t r a n s p o r t e d by head c a r r i a g e s by most p e o p l e , e x c e p t f o r the few t h a t a r e members of h i g h e r income h o u s e h o l d s , who use b i c y c l e s or motor b i k e s . I t i s i m p e r a t i v e t h a t the meats, f i s h , v e g e t a b l e s and f r u i t s which a r e purch a s e d a r e p r o p e r l y p r e s e r v e d . In a d d i t i o n t o d i f f i c u l t i e s i n o b t a i n i n g t h e i r f o o d , 190 h o u s e h o l d s a r e i n the h a b i t of p r e p a r i n g more food than i s r e q u i r e d f o r a p a r t i c u l a r meal, making food p r e s e r v a t i o n an i m p o r t a n t h o u s e h o l d c h o r e . T h i s p r a c t i c e i s due i n p a r t t o the n e c e s s i t y of p r e p a r i n g c e r t a i n foods i n advance, and p a r t l y because i t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t t h e r e w i l l be food a v a i l a b l e t o any v i s i t o r s who a r r i v e u n e x p e c t e d l y . Any food which i s l e f t over must be p r e s e r v e d f o r f u t u r e consumption. T a b l e 6.14 shows the p e r c e n t a g e f r e q u e n c y of use of v a r i o u s f u e l t y p e s f o r h o u s e h o l d food p r e s e r v a t i o n p u r p o s e s . R e f r i g e r a t o r s or f r e e z e r s f u e l e d by e l e c t r i c i t y a r e used t o p r e s e r v e foods t h r o u g h a c o o l i n g or f r e e z i n g p r o c e s s , w h i l e f i r e w o o d i s used f o r smoked or d r i e d meat, f i s h , or v e g e t a b l e s . For t h o s e h o u s e h o l d s which use f i r e w o o d f o r c o o k i n g p u r p o s e s , l e f t o v e r food may be kept warm and t e m p o r a r i l y p r e s e r v e d by r e s t i n g the c o o k i n g u t e n s i l c o n t a i n i n g the food i n the hot ashes which remain. To p r e s e r v e the food o v e r n i g h t i t i s r e - h e a t e d a t dusk and a g a i n i n the morning. N e i t h e r the use of e l e c t r i c i t y nor the use of f i r e w o o d i s f r e e from problems when i t i s u t i l i z e d f o r food p r e s e r v a t i o n i n N i g e r i a . R e f r i g e r a t o r s a r e e x p e n s i v e b o t h t o purchase and t o o p e r a t e , but the g r e a t e s t problem i s the u n r e l i a b i l i t y of the s u p p l y of e l e c t r i c i t y . I t i s obser v e d t h a t the hou s e h o l d s i n t e r v i e w e d attempt t o combat the consequences of f r e q u e n t and l e n g t h l y power f a i l u r e s by s t o r i n g b l o c k s of i c e i n t h e i r r e f r i g e r a t o r s . The p r o c e s s of smoking or d r y i n g f o o d s , on the o t h e r hand, exposes the food t o d i r t and i n s e c t s , and r e q u i r e s c o n s t a n t a t t e n t i o n t o ensure t h a t the food i s not eaten by domestic p e t s or l i v e s t o c k , and t o see t h a t i t i s not > ir. z V. tr tr 5 c tr 1 > © >' 3T VI •K •x z > X -r v. > X r r C JK > > AN IMA 1, UUIWI cr er J> w cr x v cr cr i i u. cr K^ • V/1 OFTEN K; , j> er • c c - er o • 5 K; LA 1 1 ^- cr x> . c — X K, • t i J> ^ © 2-= OCCAS-IONALLY c o X <= r-er kC K; U. C • x K; tr cr . CT -o j> er X — c • — c tr — cr Z c KJ • O- — — f- 4> X ^ c © I i 1 < u; K: ^ er • i i —* er J> KJ f- . X cr 1 1 I I OFTEN w S n m w cn K; — cr *K • o © X KJ *> v b c K; LA 1 i ^ b © « K; —' C © • K; X • —- c c — © c -© K; w b © OCCAS-IONALLY c: c a s 1 x V) cr C cr V KJ J> LA . LA X K^ X-e'-er V X -KI c • KJ © cr V © KJ . —' c-X •—' v/» cr ' LA cr as * J © • ^—- KJ NOT USED H A KJ — \\C X • J> © cr 1 1 i : X . ^ C OFTEN = > '-J> • X • * er --^ X C — X c w X x • X OCCAS-IONALLY u> V X-W kC X tr LA KJ • LA © -•J. O'-LA X . V c ^ KJ X c © . KJ cr \\r • X K; . X C o . ^ KJ W NOT USED © c er ' LA cr LA < 1 1 I tr 1 1 OFTEN H W r-sC *~s KJ ^ CC —' cr c- 1 1 . 1 1 — X — ^1 - y ) i OCCAS-IONALLY •5 O H % X 1 C x-X c KJ cr KJ ' W» X X .-^ V K,\" U. I_A . LA — >—' u» r-X © ~ °\" •— cr x cr cr cr >— • v u . X 9 C > Cr • w U) UJ *J tr sO • v x-cr x cr c NOT I'SED cr ^- C X o © X • • i i I i 1 1 — © X z> © . © i i OFTEN — c — o c i t 1 1 — o w © © i i OCCAS-IONALLY o — 5 8 — Z *> cr XK. K_l X-^ X KJ . KJ cr X-cr x — X --J x X cr X \"KJ c • NOT USED < X x 5 X X © OFTEN © c c • •' C OCCAS-IONALLY c | — c j:— x er X ox x cr a cr NOT USED — C a \" s ; s « z © n r - m o © < Vi > rr cz 50 « O x O Z Z n w c x H C — — V. z —^ tn © z © -i — c r; cyi rr s s \" « o > 5 V5 K3 > W Ir1 M CT\\ h- 1 16 T 192 a c c i d e n t a l l y burned. D e s p i t e such problems, f i r e w o o d i s the f u e l t y pe most o f t e n used by the su r v e y e d households i n N i g e r i a . A few households i n urban c e n t r e s or r u r a l towns r e p o r t t h a t t hey o c c a s i o n a l l y use gas f o r food p r e s e r v a t i o n , by r o a s t i n g meat or f i s h i n gas ovens. However, food p r e s e r v e d i n t h i s manner must be consumed w i t h i n one or two days. Gas i s a l s o used i n th e s e households f o r h e a t i n g l e f t o v e r foods a t n i g h t and a g a i n e a r l y i n the morning, p r i o r t o b e i n g s t o r e d f o r a n o t h e r day. Some h o u s e h o l d s , such as s m a l l f a m i l i e s l i v i n g i n s i n g l e room apartments who a r e unable t o use f i r e w o o d and who cannot a f f o r d a r e f r i g e r a t o r or gas oven, as w e l l as households c o n s i s t i n g of low income b a c h e l o r s , u s u a l l y purchase meat and f i s h t o be kept over a l o n g p e r i o d of time i n smoked or d r i e d form d i r e c t from the market. These households do not d i r e c t l y consume any form of energy f o r food p r e s e r v a t i o n purposes e x c e p t , p e r h a p s , f u e l used i n h e a t i n g l e f t o v e r p r e s e r v e d foods or i n p r e s e r v i n g f r e s h meat or f i s h f o r use the next day, t h r o u g h p r e - b o i l i n g or f r y i n g . T a b l e 6.15 p r e s e n t s f u e l s used f r e q u e n t l y f o r food p r e s e r v a t i o n on the b a s i s of h o u s e h o l d s i z e . In the v i l l a g e s s u r v e y e d , f i r e w o o d i s the f u e l t y pe used most f r e q u e n t l y by h o u s e h o l d s of a l l s i z e s . S i m i l a r l y , i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns t h e r e i s no d i s c e r n a b l e d i f f e r e n c e i n the type of f u e l used f o r food p r e s e r v a t i o n on the b a s i s of h o u s e h o l d s i z e . However, a n a l y s i s of f u e l use f o r food p r e s e r v a t i o n on the b a s i s of monthly h o u s e h o l d income, as p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 6.16, shows t h a t f i r e w o o d i s most o f t e n used f o r fo o d p r e s e r v a t i o n by TABLE 6.15 THE USE OF TRADITIONAL AND NONTRADITIONAL FUEL TYPES ON A FREQUENT BASIS FOR FOOD PRESERVATION PURPOSES BY HOUSEHOLD SIZE GROUPS WITHIN BOTH RURAL AND URBAN SETTINGS OF NIGERIA (PERCENTAGE RESPONSE) URBAN CENTRES RURAL TOWNS VILLAGES I CADUNA NORTH OWERRI (SOUTH-EAST) KACHIA (NORTH) ORLY (SOUTH-EAST) IDON (NORTH) MDI-UKWU (SOUTH-EAST) 4 AND LESS N-24 5 TO 8 N-32 ABOVE 8 N-24 4 AND LESS N-20 5 TO 8 N-42 ABOVE 8 N-18 4 AND LESS N-35 5 TO 8 N-28 ABOVE 8 N-17 4 AND LESS N-24 5 TO 8 N-44 ABOVE 8 N-12 4. AND LESS N-26 5 TO 8 N-28 ABOVE 8 N-26 4 AND LESS N-24 5 TO 8 N-36 ABOVE 8 N-28 TRADITIONAL FUELS 8.33 (2) 50.00 (16) 70.83 (17) 35.00 (7) 61 .90 (2 6) 61.11 (11) 34 .29 (12) 67.86 (19) 76.47 (13) 54.17 (13) 70.45 (31) 58.33 (7) 100.00 (26) 100.00 (28) 100.00 (26) 100.00 (24) 100.00 (36) 100.00 (20) NONTRADITIONAL FUELS 37.50 (19) 50.00 (16) 26.09 (6) 35.00 (7) 28.57 (12) 38.89 (7) 20.00 (7) 32. U-(19) 11 .76 (2) 16.67 (4) 11 .36 (5) 41 .67 (5) - -- ---TOTAL RESPONSES 11 32 23 14 38 18 19 28 15 17 36 12 26 28 26 24 36 20 T A B L E 6 . 1 6 THE USE OF TRADITIONAL AND NONTRADITIONAL FUEL TYPES ON A FREQUENT BASIS FOR FOOD PRESERVATION PURPOSES B Y H O U S E H O L D I N C O M E G R O U P S W I T H I N R U R A L A N D U R B A N SETTINGS OF NIGERIA (PERCENTAGE RESPONSE) URBAN CENTRES RURAL TOWNS KADUNA OWERRI KACHIA ORLU (NORTH) (SOUTH -EAST) (NORTH) (SOUTH -EAST) #?00 *B01 #601 K200 #201 M401 #601 #200 #201 #401 #601 #200 #201 #401 #601 AND TO TO AND AND TO TO AND AND TO TO AND AND TO TO AND LESS #400 •K600 ABOVE LESS 4J400 #600 ABOVE LESS moo #600 ABOVE LESS -»400 #600 ABOVE N-27 N=18 N=17 N=18 N=23 N=22 N=19 N=16 N=30 N=26 N=7 N=17 N=18 N=26 N=18 N=18 74.07 66.67 17 .65 _ 100.00 72.73 21.05 6.25 83.33 73.08 _ _ 83 .33 88.46 50.00 22.22 TRADITIONAL FUELS (20) (12) (3) - (23) (16) (4) (1) (25) (19) - - (15) (23) (9) (4) 7.41 22.22 58.82 83.33 27.27 52.63 93.75 _ 11 .54 71 .47 58.82 _ _ 22.22 55.56 NONTRADITIONAL FUELS (2) (4) (10) (15) - (6) (10) (14) - (3) (5) (10) - - (4) (10) TOTAL RESPONSES 22 16 13 15 23 22 14 15 25 22 5 10 15 23 13 14 NOTE: Traditional fuels are the fuel types used on a frequent basis for food preservation purposes by a l l respondents across income categories within the samples of Vi l l a g e s of Idon and Mdi-Ukwu in the study. 195 low and mi d d l e income households which were s u r v e y e d w i t h i n the urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns, w h i l e e l e c t r i c i t y i s the f u e l t y p e used most f r e q u e n t l y by respond e n t s from upper m i d d l e and h i g h income c a t e g o r i e s . T h i s d i f f e r e n c e i s due p r i m a r i l y t o the h i g h c o s t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the use of e l e c t r i c i t y . 6_.1_.3_.1_ F a c t o r s G o v e r n i n g The Ch o i c e of F u e l s F r e q u e n t l y Used For Food P r e s e r v a t i o n For many N i g e r i a n h o u s e h o l d s , food p r e s e r v a t i o n t h r o u g h a d r y i n g or smoking p r o c e s s i s c u r r e n t l y the o n l y o p t i o n a v a i l a b l e , and the reasons they g i v e f o r u s i n g f i r e w o o d f o r t h i s p u r p o s e , as shown i n Ta b l e 6.17 a r e a c t u a l l y j u s t a l i s t i n g of t h i s f u e l ' s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Whenever an a l t e r n a t e f u e l s o u r c e f o r f o o d p r e s e r v a t i o n , such as e l e c t r i c i t y , i s a v a i l a b l e and a ho u s e h o l d can a f f o r d t o use i t , they r e a d i l y abandon the f l a v o r which i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of smoked or d r i e d foods f o r the co n v e n i e n c e of a r e f r i g e r a t o r . In a d d i t i o n t o a r e f r i g e r a t o r b e i n g modern, h y g e n i c , and easy t o use, i t s e r v e s ' a v a r i e t y of p u r p o s e s . I t s u s e f u l n e s s f o r c o o l i n g d r i n k i n g water and o t h e r beverages i s p a r t i c u l a r l y a t t r a c t i v e t o hou s e h o l d s i n t r o p i c a l c o u n t r i e s l i k e N i g e r i a , and i t s a b i l i t y t o m a i n t a i n food's f r e s h t a s t e i s a l s o r e p o r t e d t o be h i g h l y d e s i r a b l e . I t must be u n d e r s t o o d t h a t the t r a d e - o f f s a h o u s e h o l d may make i n s w i t c h i n g from f i r e w o o d t o an a l t e r n a t e f u e l such as e l e c t r i c i t y w i l l be d i f f e r e n t f o r o t h e r f u e l s o u r c e s . S o l a r energy, f o r example, i s no l e s s d i f f i c u l t t o o b t a i n than i s f i r e w o o d when one c o n s i d e r s t h a t s u p p l i e s of s u n l i g h t may be i n t e r r u p t e d by c l o u d s or r a i n w h i c h , i n t u r n , may cause the food T A B L E 6 . 1 7 FACTORS COVER*INC THE CHOICES OP FUEL TYPES IN CURRENT USE OH A FREQUENT BASIS rOR FOOD PRESERVATION ruiroses IY HOUSEHOLDS WITHIN RURAL AND URBAN SETTINGS OF NICEIIA. (PERCENTACE RESPONSES) URBAN C ENTRES RURAL TOWNS VILLAGES TOTAL / RESPONSES / KADUNA (NORTH) . N-80 OWERRI (SOUTH-EAST) N-80 KACHIA (NORTH) N-80 ORLU (SOUTH-EAST) N-80 IDON (NORTH) N-80 MD1-UKWU (SOUTH-EAST) N-80 / N-480 1 FUEL RELATED I FAMILIAR -3.00 (4) 16.25 (13) 6.23 (5) 16.25 (13) 8.7} (7) 8.75 <42) B RELIABLE SUPPLY tl .25 (33) 30.00 (40) 42.50 (34) 56.25 (45) 68.73 (55) 61 .2} (49) 53.33 (256) I SAFE tl .2) (13) 52.30 <*2> 37.50 (46) 31 .23 (23) 17 .50 (14) 35.00 (28) 39.17 (188) 1 CLEAN 45.00 (36) 37.30 (30) 26.25 (21) 32.50 (42) - -26.88 (129) 1 EASY TO OBTAIN/ | HANDLE 26.23 (21) 18.73 (13) 16.25 (13) (17) - -13.75 (66) INEXPENSIVE 41 .2) (33) 47.30 (J») 38.75 (31) 21 .23 (38) 43. 75 (35) 57.50 (46) 46.04 (226) PRODUCES PLEASANT FLAVOUR 10.00 (8) 6.25 (5) -7.50 (6) 8.75 (') 1 5.00 (12) 7 .92 (38) ONLY OPTION 1 .25 X ir. 2 t/1 rr v. 2 2 ? C 2 in 2 > r c r Wl > X rr V, 2 V) rr VI X Vi 2 > X V) > c c V. X CHARC0AL > 2 | C z OC c o CC o c . o i i CC © O • O 1 1 —. ro x> -C 1 1 1 t OFTEN c c w c c > i ^ OD «c • t 1 1 1 1 1 i t 1 1 OCCAS-IONALLY z > c 6 25 X-c L-^ K. CC c w -w e* c KJ • c w C X* c u. cr • s-- cr Kj cr . ' x-o> 0C \\C Ln © f ^ OC Ln ac c • w OC L/» NOT USED © X 0= z n OC o o ee o o • o o 1 1 a o o OD . o © 1 1 •o O r o * O 1 1 1 1 t 1 1 I OFTEN Vi O SO rr w o o *© • 8 1 t K J • X-^ 00 w 0D Cr 1 1 i r 1 1 OCCAS-IONALLY c o ? i > — VJ x> o . KJ CS o KJ o w so t o • O 0 6 O x-o 1 1 — ' r o o — . KJ 0D • • w O o 0 0 iO © • w vO Ln 0D sC o • Ln 0D vc © * Ln OP I_3 © • OC NOT USED QD © o CC o c 1 t OD o Ln —v OC ' o a Ln 1 I 1 f t I t 1 OFTEN *> © •*-< o o 1 1 x-<—• *C V v^, X» <_J . w o Ln 1 1 I i < 1 1 1 1 t OCCAS-IONALLY o n » s: i> x-o cr ^ KJ QD t— Q> • OD s-. - O LO CD KJ . O » ' K* X-O cr- 1 1 C 0D « t o «c • KJ r o © . o © 0D t£> o • © 0 0 O • w O NOT USED X cr OD o O OD O o * v o o 1 1 oc o ^ 0 0 w 1 1 W • ~—' KJ 1 1 1 1 1 l OFTEN v> 5 V) /-s o o —' © o 1 f - -J UJ KJ . Ln —. O Ln • w X- 1 1 t t 1 | l l OCCAS-IONALLY c c o H X T <= X-o w KJ CD O w . o w vC »o • C w O x> o w O *j oc »»J — X> 0D — © Or Ln 0D f O • ^ 0D Ln 0 0 \\C © • 0D Ln CD iO © • w 0D Ln NOT USED - i OC o o CO o o • ^ o c CD © OC o o o b o I 1 1 1 1 1 t I I I OFTEN 1 f 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 t t 1 OCCAS-IONALLY z ^ -c c x c H Z 4> OD o w 0> • O i * v L_ — . 0> w o>-ro • c o CD . c 1 1 OD 0> OD a C a-oo ©• c • w o-oc cr cr QD cr © • —- cr x er © . w cr NOT USED < > OC • • at •x c • 1 i i OFTEN V . • • i t • • • • • • OCCAS-IONALLY 5| U) C H QB o ,—. w . C <—' —« a w o> KJ • C O x-ae © ao cr c • 0D cr o • ^ •?• Cc cr © • cr oc cr © • x cr c • «—• cr oc cy O . w o NOT USED 3 5 9 c cr z = c = Q tr i S r 1 O \"3 IE5 cT6I 199 Of the households s u r v e y e d i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns, j u s t two of them do not use e l e c t r i c i t y f o r home l i g h t i n g , and the s e a r e u n u s u a l l y poor households l i v i n g i n shacks w i t h o u t b e n e f i t of e l e c t r i c a l f a c i l i t i e s . L i k e v i l l a g e h o u s e h o l d s , these respondents r e l y e n t i r e l y on kerosene f o r home l i g h t i n g . Kerosene i s used t h r o u g h the use of l o c a l l a n t e r n s made from c a n s , or i n impor t e d h u r r i c a n e l a n t e r n s . In the l a t t e r , the flame of the b u r n i n g wick i s p r o t e c t e d by g l a s s , and the l a n t e r n has a handle by which i t can be t r a n s f e r r e d around the room. Home l i g h t i n g i s the major f u n c t i o n f o r which kerosene i s used i n v i l l a g e homes. There a r e problems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h usage of e i t h e r e l e c t r i c i t y or kerosene on a f r e q u e n t b a s i s f o r the purpose of home l i g h t i n g . I n the use of e l e c t r i c i t y , the u n r e l i a b i l i t y of s u p p l y i s the major d i f f i c u l t y . To combat t h i s problem households i n the urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns s u r v e y e d r e l y on e i t h e r kerosene or gas f o r use on an o c c a s i o n a l b a s i s . As shown i n the d a t a p r e s e n t e d , kerosene r e p r e s e n t s the f u e l type used by the l a r g e m a j o r i t y of re s p o n d e n t s f o r o c c a s i o n a l use i n home l i g h t i n g . G i v e n t h a t o n l y s m a l l q u a n t i t i e s of kerosene a r e consumed d a i l y by households f o r home l i g h t i n g , the c o s t of the f u e l and the p o s s i b l e u n r e l i a b i l i t y of i t s s u p p l y do not pose any s e r i o u s c o n s t r a i n t s t o i t s use. For example, a two l i t r e q u a n t i t y of kerosene, c o s t i n g a p p r o x i m a t e l y s e v e n t y c e n t s C a n a d i a n , can s e r v e the average household's home l i g h t i n g needs f o r a t l e a s t one month. The same q u a n t i t y of t h i s f u e l would l a s t o n l y t h r e e or f o u r days i f used t o cook d a i l y meals. N e v e r t h e l e s s , kerosene used f o r home l i g h t i n g does have i t s d i s a d v a n t a g e s . The l i g h t i t g i v e s i s not b r i g h t , and the 200 l a n t e r n s used g e n e r a t e heat and s o o t . U n l i k e e l e c t r i c l i g h t s , kerosene l a n t e r n s cannot be s w i t c h e d on q u i c k l y i n case of emergency, and the b u r n i n g l a n t e r n must be watched c a r e f u l l y t o a v o i d the danger of the flame s e t t i n g f i r e t o the t h a t c h e d r o o f , p a r t i c u l a r l y when can l a n t e r n s w i t h o u t p r o t e c t i v e g l a s s e s a r e used. Because of thes e d i s a d v a n t a g e s , i t i s not s u r p r i s i n g t h a t kerosene p l a y s a secondary r o l e i n home l i g h t i n g wherever p o s s i b l e . 6_.1_.4_.1__ . Reasons For The C h o i c e Of P a r t i c u l a r F u e l Types C u r r e n t l y Used For Home L i g h t i n g The r e s u l t s show t h a t h o u s e h o l d s s u r v e y e d i n the v i l l a g e s use kerosene on a f r e q u e n t b a s i s f o r h o m e l i g h t i n g p u r p o s e s . As p r e v i o u s l y mentioned, t h e r e a r e no e l e c t r i c a l or gas s u p p l y systems i n t h e s e v i l l a g e s , and households thus r e l y on kerosene f o r h o m e l i g h t i n g on a f r e q u e n t b a s i s p r i m a r i l y because of i t s cheap p r i c e and because i t r e p r e s e n t s the be s t of the a c c e s s i b l e n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l o p t i o n s . E l e c t r i c i t y , on the o t h e r hand, i s used on a f r e q u e n t b a s i s by n e a r l y a l l the households s u r v e y e d i n t he urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns, f o r s e v e r a l reasons i n c l u d i n g i t s a v a i l a b i l i t y , the b r i g h t n e s s of i t s l i g h t , t he c l e a n l i n e s s of the f u e l , i t s r e l a t i v e s a f e t y , and ease of o p e r a t i o n of the r e q u i r e d equipment, as shown i n Ta b l e 6.19. T h i s t a b l e f u r t h e r demonstrates t h a t the p r i c e of a g i v e n f u e l i s not the o n l y c o n s i d e r a t i o n made by a N i g e r i a n h o u s e h o l d i n c o n t e m p l a t i n g i t s use f o r dome s t i c p u r p o s e s . A wide range of i n t r i n s i c q u a l i t i e s a r e of e q u a l i m p o r t a n c e , and s h o u l d p l a y a l a r g e r o l e i n the assessment of proposed new energy r e s o u r c e T A B L E 6. 1-9 FACTORS GOVERNING THE CHOICES OF FUEL TYPES IN CURRENT USE ON A FREQUENT BASIS FOR HOHELICHTINC PURPOSES BY HOUSEHOLDS WITHIN RURAL AND URBAN SETTINGS IN NIGERIA. (PERCENTAGE RESPONSE) URBAN CENTRES RURAL TOWNS VILI.AC ES TOTAL / RESPONSES / KADUNA OUERRI KACHIA ORLU IDON MDI-IKWU (NORTH) (SOUTH-EAST) (NORTH) (SOUTH-EAST) (NORTH) (SOUTH-EAST) / N-48U N-80 H-BO N-80 N-80 N-80 N-80 Ft'KI.-KELA'l fcJJ EFFECTIVE 80.00 63 .75 8 2 . 5 0 67 . 50 - _ 48 .9 (GENERATES BRICIIT (64) (51 ) (66 ) (54 ) - _ ( 2 ) 5 ) LIGHT) 13.75 11 .25 - 7 .50 60 .00 6 6 . 2 5 26 .46 INEXPENSIVE (11) (9 ) - ( 6 ) ( 4 8 ) ( 5 3 ) (127) CLEAN 51 .25 70 .00 55 .00 7 0 . 0 0 6 .25 3 . 7 5 42.71 (41 ) (56 ) ( 4 4 ) ( 5 6 ) ( 5 ) ( 3 ) (205) RELIABILITY 2 5.00 12 .50 28 .75 21 .25 42 .50 52 .50 30 .42 (IF SUPPLY (20) (10) (23) ( 1 7 ) ( 3 4 ) ( 4 2 ) (146) SAKE 60.00 4 6 . 2 5 51 .25 61 .25 2 8 . 7 5 23 .75 45.21 (48) (37 ) ( 4 1 ) C 9 ) ( 2 3 ) (19 ) (21 7 ) BEST OPTION - - 16.25 - 1 .25 _ l.HI - - (13 ) - ( I ) - (14) ONLY OPTION - - - - 75 .00 95 .00 28.33 - - - - (60 ) (76) (136) APPLIANCE RELATED QUICK TO OPERATE 45 .00 6 6 . 2 5 3 6 . 2 5 4 7 . 5 0 - _ 3 2. 50 (36) (53) (29) (38 ) - - (156) LOW INVESTMENT 25 .00 27 .50 30 .00 2 5 . 0 0 40 .00 18.75 27 .71 COSTS (20) ( 2 2 ) (24) ( 2 0 ) ( 3 2 ) ( 1 5 ) (133) 202 s u p p l y a l t e r n a t i v e s . 6 . 1.5 Summary And D i s c u s s i o n Kerosene, gas, e l e c t r i c i t y , and f i r e w o o d a r e the dominant f u e l s from which households a c r o s s urban and r u r a l towns make i h e i r c h o i c e s f o r the purpose of s e r v i n g domestic energy needs. In the v i l l a g e s , on the o t h e r hand, t h e r e a r e no e l e c t r i c a l and gas s u p p l y systems, as shown i n Ta b l e 6.20. Fi r e w o o d i s the f u e l most o f t e n chosen by v i l l a g e h o useholds f o r a v a r i e t y of t a s k s , i n c l u d i n g the p r i m a r y f u n c t i o n s of c o o k i n g , water h e a t i n g , and food p r e s e r v a t i o n ; kerosene i s the f u e l most o f t e n chosen f o r home l i g h t i n g . A l l households s u r v e y e d , a c r o s s income c a t e g o r i e s , h o u s e h o l d s i z e c a t e g o r i e s , and r e g i o n s use more than one f u e l type on a f r e q u e n t b a s i s f o r domesti c p u r p o s e s , as shown i n T a b l e 6.21. F u e l use by households v a r i e s w i t h the t a s k b e i n g performed. For example, a ho u s e h o l d u s i n g f i r e w o o d f o r c o o k i n g and water h e a t i n g may use kerosene or e l e c t r i c i t y f o r home l i g h t i n g . S i m i l a r l y , a ho u s e h o l d which uses kerosene f o r c o o k i n g or water h e a t i n g may t u r n t o f i r e w o o d f o r food p r e s e r v a t i o n . Most o f t e n h ouseholds choose from among a c c e s s i b l e o p t i o n s , a f u e l type which can y i e l d them o p t i m a l b e n e f i t s i n the performance of c e r t a i n d omestic energy t a s k s , i n terms of b o t h energy and non-energy s e r v i c e s . Where p o s s i b l e , h ouseholds i n v e s t i n a p p l i a n c e s , e i t h e r i n terms of c a s h or l a b o r , which use a p a r t i c u l a r f u e l t y pe t h a t can y i e l d them o p t i m a l b e n e f i t s t h r o u g h m u l t i p l e usage. For example, h i g h e r income households which a r e r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l i n 203 TABLE 6.20 CONVENTIONAL ENERGY RESOURCE PRODUCTS SUPPLY SITUATION BY SAMPLE LOCATIONS WITHIN NIGERIA ENERGY RESOURCE NORTH SOUTH-EAST PRODUCTS KADUNA (URBAN) KACHIA (RURAL TOWN) IDON (VILLAGE) OWERRI (URBAN) ORLU (RURAL TOWN) NDI-UKWU (VILLAGE) TRADITIONAL FUELS ANIMAL DUNG XXX XXX XXX X X X CHARCOAL XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX FIREWOOD XXX xxxx xxxxx xxxx xxxx xxxxx NON-TRADITIONAL FUELS COAL xxxx XX X XXX XX X ELECTRICITY XX XX X XX XX X GAS xxxx xxxx X xxxx xxxx X KEROSENE xxxxx xxxxx xxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxx X = U n a v a i l a b l e XX = A v a i l a b l e but i r r e g u l a r s u p p l i e s XXX = M o d e r a t e l y low s u p p l y XXXX = Adequate s u p p l y XXXXX= M o d e r a t e l y h i g h s u p p l y T A B L E 6.21 FUEL ryPCS IN USE ON FRCOUCNr BASIS FOC COOXINO, UATER HCAriKO, HONE LIOHriNO AND FOOD PRESERVATION PURPOSES OP HOUSEHOLDS UITHIK RURAL RNO URBAN SErriNOS OF RIOERIA < PERCCNTAOC OF (ESPOUSE > URBAN CENTRES RURAL rows VILLAGES KAOUNA OUtRRI KACHIA ORLU IOON NDI-UKUU (NORTH) (NORTH) FUEL TVrtS C K 1 M H L F P C K U H N L F P C K U H H L F P C X U H H L F P C K U N H L F P C K U H HL FP AfllnAL OUNO CHARCOAL rIREuooo 24.23 <21> IR.F3 <13> • 33 .05 <33> 34.23 <29> 22 .30 - 42.M ( « ) 44 .23 0 7 > 33 .00 <28> -70.97 <*o 3 7 .30 <4t> 42 .30 C34) -43 . 7 3 (31 ) 100.00 CSO> 9 0 . 0 0 <72) • 100.00 11.75 <7»> 8 4 . 2 5 <»»> 100.00 • SMJDUSI ELECFR1CIFV • 32.30 <2*> 12.50 <7«> 46 .17 Ol) • 21 . 7 3 <23> 90 .00 <72> 37. H <24> -13 .n <1L> 81 . 7 3 <71) 23.03 -18 .73 <13) 91 . 23 <7J> 17.30 <14) OAS 30.00 18 .73 <13> • • 13.00 <12> 11.23 <1> - • 11.23 <1) 3 .00 <4> - - 8.73 <7> 7.30 <») KEROSENE \"soToo\" < 2 0 ~7~.W~ <4> • ai> \"37T50\" • 42 .30 a<> 44 .23 <37> 11.23 <»> -33 . 7 3 <27> 31 .23 C23> 8.73 <7> • • 10.00 100.00 <80> -1.23 <1> \" l r w \" 166.00 <80> • TOTAL RESPONSES to 80 SO ti to 80 80 70 80 to to 42 80 80 to «3 80 80 80 to to to to to TRADITIONAL FUELS 24.23 <21> 1R.T5 <15) 00 .00 \"\"5765~ 0 3 ) \"stTH\" <»> ~2275)\" • —427SS' <««> •94.23 <37) 33 .00 0 0 . 0 0 70.17 (44) 5 7 .30 <4t> 42 .30 <34> 00 . 00 63 . 7 5 <3l> 100 .00 9 0 . 0 0 <72> 00 .00 100.00 It.73 <79> 14 .23 <69> i56766\" 0 0 . 0 0 <80> NON-TRAOI TI ONAL FUELS n'.ri' «»> <43> 100.00 <90> 46 . 17 ai> 43 .75 <51> 77 .30 <42> 100.00 <80> 3 7 .14 <24> 33 . 7 3 <43> 4 3 .00 <32) 100.00 23 .03 <18> 42 .30 <34> 5 7 .30 <44> 100.00 17 .50 <14> 00 . 00 10 .00 <8> 100.00 0 0 . 0 0 1.23 <1> 13 . 75 a n 100.00 (B0> 0 0 . 00 rorAL RESPONSES »o 80 60 to 80 80 70 to to to 42 to 10 to to 80 80 to to to to 80 10 HHERC: CK - C00K1H0 UH • UATER HEATTN8 HL • HONE LIOHriRO FP • FOOO PROCESSIHO 205 s i z e and which buy gas or kerosene s t o v e s a r e l i k e l y t o do so w i t h the i n t e n t i o n of u s i n g them f o r c o o k i n g and water h e a t i n g , o f t e n a t the same t i m e . S i m i l a r l y , i n the v i l l a g e s s t o v e s which u t i l i z e f i r e w o o d a r e c o n s t r u c t e d so t h a t water h e a t i n g , c o o k i n g , and f o o d p r e s e r v a t i o n can be a c c o m p l i s h e d s i m u l t a n e o u s l y . I t i s not s u r p r i s i n g , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t a s t o v e which y i e l d s improved energy e f f i c i e n c y but which does not l e n d i t s e l f t o the co n v e n i e n c e of m u l t i p l e usage i s u n l i k e l y t o be r e a d i l y a c c e p t e d . S o l a r c o o k e r s , f o r example, a r e a b l e t o cook j u s t one t h i n g a t a t i m e , and t h i s l i m i t a t i o n has been c i t e d as one of the r e a s o n s why t h e s e c o o k e r s have not been a c c e p t a b l e t o hous e h o l d s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d ( F r e n c h , 1978b:12; Walton e t a l . , 1978:51). A l a c k of knowledge and a p p r e c i a t i o n of the reas o n s b e h i n d e x i s t i n g h o u s e h o l d f u e l use p r a c t i c e s has l e d t o t h e p r o p o s a l of a wide a r r a y of a l t e r n a t e new energy s u p p l y t e c h n o l o g i e s which have f a i l e d t o g a i n a c c e p t a n c e . The reas o n s f o r which a h o u s e h o l d chooses a p a r t i c u l a r f u e l type a r e n a t u r a l l y i n f l u e n c e d by p r i c e per u n i t of energy, but p r i c e i s not the s o l e b a s i s of c h o i c e . A poor h o u s e h o l d , f o r example, uses f i r e w o o d because of i t s low p r i c e and investment c o s t s , but a l s o because i t s s u p p l y i s r e l i a b l e , i t i s a s a f e f u e l , and i t o f f e r s the co n v e n i e n c e of c o o k i n g or h e a t i n g water any time of the day. T h i s same ho u s e h o l d w i l l be r e l u c t a n t t o use a s o l a r c o o k e r even though i t s source of energy i s cheap and the inv e s t m e n t c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h i t s use a r e low, because i t can be used o n l y i n the heat of the day, m i r r o r s must be a d j u s t e d on a r e g u l a r b a s i s , and means must be sought t o ward o f f the g l a r e of t h e sun. Indeed, Brown (1978:4) c i t e s r e p o r t s which s t a t e t h a t 206 poor h o u s e h o l d s i n some r u r a l Mexican v i l l a g e s , w i t h o u t adequate f o o d , p r e f e r r e d t o buy kerosene t o cook the l i t t l e f ood they had. For any p a r t i c u l a r domestic chore no s i n g l e f u e l p o s s e s s e s a l l of the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s d e s i r e d by a h o u s e h o l d . W h i l e f u e l s such as e l e c t r i c i t y , gas, and kerosene a r e c l e a n and e f f i c i e n t , they a r e u s u a l l y e x p e n s i v e and t h e i r s u p p l y u n r e l i a b l e . N i g e r i a n h ouseholds cope w i t h t h i s s i t u a t i o n by making t r a d e - o f f s . F a m i l i e s w i t h e l e c t r i c c o o k e r s , f o r example, may use them o n l y o c c a s i o n a l l y , when speedy r e s u l t s a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t . On a more f r e q u e n t b a s i s they may r e l y on a l t e r n a t e f u e l s whose c o s t s a r e low and s u p p l y more r e l i a b l e . S i m i l a r l y , h o useholds which r e g u l a r l y use k e r o s e n e , gas, or e l e c t r i c s t o v e s may t u r n t o f i r e w o o d when the food i s t o be r o a s t e d or when a l a r g e meal r e q u i r i n g c o o k i n g u t e n s i l s t o o l a r g e f o r t h e s e s t o v e s i s b e i n g p r e p a r e d . Wherever e l e c t r i c i t y , kerosene or gas i s used i n p l a c e of f i r e w o o d , low c o s t s a r e b e i n g s a c r i f i c e d f o r c l e a n l i n e s s and g r e a t e r e f f i c i e n c y . The s t u d y shows t h a t , g e n e r a l l y s p e a k i n g , h o u s e h o l d s i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns r e a d i l y abandon the use of f i r e w o o d f o r the c o n v e n i e n c e of e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s . T h i s b e i n g the c a s e , i t i s u n r e a l i s t i c t o assume t h a t an a l t e r n a t e new t e c h n o l o g y w i l l be adopted by t h e s e h ouseholds mer e l y because i t i s cheap and perhaps even r e l a t i v e l y more r e l i a b l e i n terms of s u p p l y . Even a t the v i l l a g e l e v e l , where the average monthly income of a h o u s e h o l d i s l e s s than one t h i r d t h a t of low income urban h o u s e h o l d s , p r i c e a l o n e i s not the d e t e r m i n i n g f a c t o r i n the c h o i c e of f u e l . T h i s s h o u l d by now be 207 o b v i o u s i n t h a t even the proposed use of f r e e s o l a r energy based on s o l a r cooker t e c h n o l o g y has been r e j e c t e d i n h ouseholds thr o u g h o u t the T h i r d World, i n c l u d i n g t h o s e a t the v i l l a g e l e v e l . T h i s f a i l u r e has been a t t r i b u t e d t o p o v e r t y and c u l t u r a l r i g i d i t i e s , but the t r u e f a u l t l i e s w i t h the i n a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of the t e c h n o l o g i e s t h e m s e l v e s . As C e c e l s k i e t a l . (1979:63) remark, ... o b v i o u s l y the poor have q u i t e e a s i l y adopted a l l k i n d s of new t e c h n o l o g i e s which meet t h e i r needs, from kerosene s t o v e s t o t r a n s i s t o r r a d i o s . Technology i n v o l v i n g b i o g a s , f o r example, i s i n a p p r o r i a t e on two major grounds. The f i r s t r e l a t e s t o i t s f a i l u r e t o embrace non-energy s e r v i c e s such as s a f e t y , a s a n i t a r y p r o c e s s , and c o n v e n i e n c e , which a r e f a c t o r s which c o n t r i b u t e t o h o u s e h o l d s ' e x i s t i n g c h o i c e s and p r e f e r e n c e s f o r c e r t a i n c o n v e n t i o n a l f u e l t y p e s , both t r a d i t i o n a l and n o n - t r a d i t i o n a l . As a r e s u l t , b i o g a s has not g a i n e d a c c e p t a n c e by the i n t e n d e d u s e r s . Even i n C h i n a where e x p e r i e n c e s w i t h b i o g a s t e c h n o l o g y have been w i d e l y documented, C e c e l s k i e t a l . , (1979:102) note t h a t , ... Chinese energy e x p e r t s viewed b i o g a s as an i n f e r i o r and t r a n s i t i o n a l t e c h n o l o g y which w i l l be r e p l a c e d as soon as c o n v e n i e n t by o t h e r f u e l s o u r c e s . The second major f a c t o r r e l a t i n g t o the i n a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of b i o g a s t e c h n o l o g y f o r most d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s concerns the a v a i l a b i l i t y of r e s o u r c e i n p u t s f o r b i o g a s p r o d u c t i o n , and the s o c i e t y ' s p e r c e p t i o n of those i n p u t s . S t a n d a r d b i o g a s equipment r e q u i r e s a minimum of t h r e e t o f i v e c a t t l e t o produce the n e c e s s a r y dung. In N i g e r i a h ouseholds i n the s o u t h e r n r e g i o n s r a r e l y own a cow, and even i n n o r t h e r n N i g e r i a , which has the l a r g e s t p o p u l a t i o n of l i v e s t o c k i n the c o u n t r y , l e s s than two 208 p e r c e n t of the p o p u l a t i o n own as many as t h r e e cows. Cow dung, t h e r e f o r e , r e p r e s e n t s an u n a v a i l a b l e source of i n p u t t o b i o g a s p r o d u c t i o n . Even l a t r i n e s a t t a c h e d t o s m a l l , m a r g i n a l l y economic b i o g a s p l a n t s c o u l d y i e l d a more r e l i a b l e s u p p l y of dung, but the o b v i o u s r e l u c t a n c e t o eat food cooked or p r e s e r v e d w i t h gas from human wastes p r o h i b i t s the a c c e p t a n c e of such \" i n n o v a t i o n \" . As C e c e l s k i e t a l . (1979:84) p o i n t o u t , ... i f socioeconomic f e a s i b i l i t y were c o n s i d e r e d as e x p l i c i t l y as t e c h n i c a l and economic f e a s i b i l i t y , b o t h i n proposed p r o j e c t s and i n e v a l u a t i o n s of ongoing , e x p e r i m e n t s , a g r e a t d e a l would be added t o the s t o r e of knowledge i n t h i s a r e a . S i m i l a r l y , e c o l o g i c a l s a f e t y and r e n e w a b i l i t y of r e s o u r c e s , a l t h o u g h of v i t a l i m p o r t a n c e , a r e not f a c t o r s which c a r r y s u f f i c i e n t a p p e a l t o ensure the a d o p t i o n of f u e l t y p e s p o s s e s s i n g t h e s e t r a i t s by i n d i v i d u a l h o u s e h o l d s . Those who would o f f e r s o l a r energy, a n i m a l waste, or biomass s h o u l d d i r e c t t h e i r e f f o r t s towards more s o p h i s t i c a t e d t e c h n o l o g y whereby t h e s e f u e l s o u r c e s can be used t o produce e l e c t r i c power s u p p l i e s a t a c o m p e t i t i v e p r i c e . Through the development of s o l a r t h e r m a l g e n e r a t o r s , the sun's heat can be used t o g e n e r a t e steam t o d r i v e o r d i n a r y t u r b i n e g e n e r a t o r s , w i t h a back-up of b i o g a s g e n e r a t o r s f o r e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n between sunset and s u n r i s e . A d e m o n s t r a t i o n u n i t of t h i s type was c o n s t r u c t e d i n S r i Lanka. The u n i t c o s t of energy from t h i s system compares f a v o r a b l y w i t h the c o s t of d i e s e l g e n e r a t i o n , a t a p r i c e of 60 c e n t s t o $1.20 per g a l l o n of d i e s e l f u e l ( C e c e l s k i e t a l . , 1979). I f promoted, t h i s form of t e c h n o l o g y w i l l p r o v i d e energy t h a t i s c l e a n and which p o s s e s s e s many o t h e r of the q u a l i t i e s of e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s u p p l y o p t i o n s . In a d d i t i o n , such 209 f u e l s o u r c e s a r e renewable and e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y s a f e . T e c h n o l o g i e s such as tho s e i n v o l v i n g low wind speed f o r the p r o d u c t i o n of power s h o u l d a l s o be e x p l o r e d , w h i l e r e s e a r c h e r s keep apace w i t h the c h a n g i n g needs and e x p e c t a t i o n s of the people f o r whom th e s e t e c h n o l o g i e s a r e d e s i g n e d . As a means of t e m p o r a r i l y t e mpering e x i s t i n g energy problems i n the v i l l a g e s , e f f o r t s s h o u l d be d i r e c t e d towards r e f o r e s t a t i o n and a f f o r e s t a t i o n programs, as w e l l as the improved e f f i c i e n c y of t r a d i t i o n a l wood b u r n i n g s t o v e s . T h i s s t u d y f u r t h e r f i n d s t h a t the use of e x i s t i n g non-t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s f o r domestic purposes by households i n c r e a s e s s p a t i a l l y from v i l l a g e s t o r u r a l towns t o urban c e n t r e s , as w e l l as from low t o m i d d l e t o h i g h income c a t e g o r i e s . One of the i m p l i c a t i o n s of t h e s e f i n d i n g s i s t h a t as N i g e r i a n h o u s e h o l d s ' income i n c r e a s e , and as the u r b a n i z a t i o n p r o c e s s c o n t i n u e s , the consumption of f u e l s whose s o u r c e s of s u p p l y a r e f i n i t e w i l l r i s e s h a r p l y and n e c e s s i t a t e e i t h e r i n c r e a s e d i m p o r t s or d e c r e a s e d f o r e i g n exchange e a r n i n g s . E i t h e r way, the c o u n t r y ' s b a l a n c e of payments w i l l be s t r a i n e d . These f i n d i n g s a r e not unique t o the N i g e r i a n s i t u a t i o n . As Eden e t a l . (1981:355) n o t e , The c h a n g i n g economic s t r u c t u r e i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a f f e c t s energy demand and i s an i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n a s s e s s i n g f u t u r e demand. Examples of such changes i n c l u d e u r b a n i s a t i o n , i n d u s t r i a l growth and m o d e r n i s a t i o n , and the i n c r e a s i n g use of commercial energy i n b o t h urban and r u r a l a r e a s . As income grows, p r e s e n t l u x u r i e s such as home l i g h t i n g , gas c o o k i n g , a i r c o o l i n g , r e f r i g e r a t o r s , r a d i o s and t e l e v i s i o n s a r e i n c r e a s i n g l y used by households i n c i t i e s and towns. The use of a n i m a l s f o r t r a n s p o r t d i m i n i s h e s as p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t , b i c y c l e s and p r i v a t e a u t o m o b i l e s i n c r e a s e i n use. S i m i l a r l y , i n r u r a l a r e a s , even though h o r s e s , donkeys and c a t t l e s t i l l r e p r e s e n t the dominant t r a n s p o r t system, they a r e g r a d u a l l y d i s a p p e a r i n g w i t h the w i d e r use of p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t . 210 The consequences of such changes a r e not l i k e l y t o e n t e r the c o n s c i o u s n e s s of ho u s e h o l d members as they seek improved s o u r c e s of f u e l . T h i s i s p o i n t e d out by Eden e t a l . (1981:365) when they note t h a t , The p e r c e i v e d c o s t s and b e n e f i t s of a form of s u p p l y may d i f f e r between d i f f e r e n t consumers and d e c i s i o n makers. Thus, a government i n a non-OPEC d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y may be t r y i n g t o d i s c o u r a g e the use of o i l because of the p r e s s u r e o i l i m p o r t s impose on f o r e i g n exchange r e s o u r c e s , w h i l e many consumers w i t h i n the c o u n t r y c o n t i n u e t o f i n d o i l a t t r a c t i v e i n r e l a t i o n t o the c o s t s they i n c u r . A l t h o u g h h i g h energy p r i c e s may be p e r c e i v e d as an e f f e c t i v e t o o l f o r r e g u l a t i n g the s h i f t t o nonrenewable s o u r c e s of f u e l , energy p r i c i n g i s complex and p o l i t i c a l l y d i f f i c u l t . I f f u e l p r i c e s a r e r a i s e d beyond a t o l e r a b l e l e v e l i t w i l l r e s u l t i n p u b l i c o u t c r y , p r o t e s t , and a l o s s of c r e d i b i l i t y of the p o l i t i c a l a c t o r s , or w i l l i nduce an i n f l a t i o n a r y s p i r a l . U n t i l a c c e p t a b l e t e c h n o l o g i e s u t i l i z i n g a l t e r n a t e , renewable s o u r c e s of energy a r e i n t r o d u c e d , new methods s h o u l d be found f o r more e f f i c i e n t u t i l i z a t i o n of e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s . Usage of energy e f f i c i e n t c o o k e r s , f o r example, c o u l d be promoted t h r o u g h d i s c r i m i n a t o r y import t a r i f f s or government p r i c e s u b s i d i e s . A second i m p l i c a t i o n of the f i n d i n g t h a t the use of e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s f o r domestic purposes by ho u s e h o l d s i n c r e a s e s as one moves up the s p a t i a l and income h i e r a r c h i e s , i s t h a t r e g a r d l e s s of what method i s used t o c u r b the use of e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s or t o improve the energy s u p p l y o p t i o n s c u r r e n t l y a v a i l a b l e t o N i g e r i a n h o u s e h o l d s , t h e s e measures must be i n t r o d u c e d f i r s t i n t o urban c e n t r e s . H i s t o r i c a l l y , i n n o v a t i o n has been d i f f u s e d from urban 211 c e n t r e s t o r u r a l towns and v i l l a g e s , as i n the i n t r o d u c t i o n of kerosene s t o v e s , r a d i o s , a u t o m o b i l e s , b u i l d i n g d e s i g n , and s i m i l a r t e c h n o l o g i e s . I t i s a well-known f a c t t h a t r u r a l h o u s e h o l d s f r e q u e n t l y a s p i r e t o t h e s t a n d a r d of l i v i n g e n j o y e d by t h e i r urban c o u n t e r p a r t s , but t h a t the r e v e r s e i s r a r e l y t r u e . The c u r r e n t p r a c t i c e of d e v e l o p i n g new energy s u p p l y o p t i o n s i n r e s e a r c h i n s t i t u t e s and u n i v e r s i t i e s which a r e l o c a t e d i n urban c e n t r e s , but g e a r i n g such i n n o v a t i o n s t o use s o l e l y by v i l l a g e h o u s e h o l d s , r e s u l t s i n the s u s p i c i o n t h a t t h e s e use o p t i o n s a r e not c o n s i d e r e d good enough f o r urban d w e l l e r s , and c r e a t e s a p s y c h o l o g i c a l b a r r i e r t o t h e i r use. R e s e a r c h e r s s h o u l d be made t o r e c o g n i z e the importance of the p e r c e i v e d s o c i a l s t a t u s of a proposed new energy a l t e r n a t i v e , and s h o u l d be wo r k i n g t o f i n d ways by which renewable and e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y s a f e f u e l s o u r c e s can be u t i l i z e d i n a manner which i s a c c e p t a b l e t o h i g h e r income urban d w e l l e r s , or which a t l e a s t a pproximate c u r r e n t l y d e s i r e d f u e l s . The use of such i n n o v a t i o n s can then be d i f f u s e d t o r u r a l towns and v i l l a g e s . 6.2 F u e l Types Most P r e f e r r e d By Households F o r Domestic Purposes In q u e s t i o n s 8.1 t o 8.4 of the i n t e r v i e w q u e s t i o n n a i r e , h o u s e h o l d s a r e asked t o i n d i c a t e the f u e l t y p e s they most p r e f e r t o use f o r a v a r i e t y of domestic c h o r e s i n c l u d i n g c o o k i n g , water h e a t i n g , f o o d p r e s e r v a t i o n , and home l i g h t i n g . The pe r c e n t a g e r e s p o n s e s f o r each f u e l t ype mentioned a r e shown i n T a b l e 6.22. A c r o s s urban c e n t r e s , r u r a l towns, and v i l l a g e s the households s u r v e y e d i n d i c a t e t h a t e l e c t r i c i t y i s the most p r e f e r r e d s o u r c e of energy f o r a l l of the t a s k s i d e n t i f i e d , a c c o u n t i n g f o r about 8 z H O g § § 5 KADUNA KACHIA IDON MDI-UKWU KADUNA OWERRI KACHIA ORLU MDI-UKWU KADUNA OWERRI KACHIA ORLU IDON MDI-UKWU KADUNA OWERRI KACHIA IDON MDI-UKWU KJ UJ cr -J Ln CO w O TOTAL RESPONSES o ?: s i 5C Z w > CA 32 •5 8 W D pis > M \"0 r* tn prj p] Cfi C 2 H 50 p. CC 5*3 t) > CJ » 2 -< fi H W 50 H * W M Wl fei O X \" I C C z w re •~* CTJ H I H Pl O 2 > w m m i-3 > CO tr1 H iv> ZTZ 213 64 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l r e s p o n s e . For each s p e c i f i c d omestic c h o r e , the l a r g e m a j o r i t y of r e s p o n d e n t s most p r e f e r e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s . For c o o k i n g p u r p o s e s , gas i s most p r e f e r r e d by respondents i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns, f o l l o w e d by kerosene and e l e c t r i c i t y . V i l l a g e households most p r e f e r kerosene f o r c o o k i n g p u r p o s e s , f o l l o w e d by e l e c t r i c i t y . When asked the reasons f o r t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e f o r a p a r t i c u l a r f u e l f o r c o o k i n g p u r p o s e s , c l e a n l i n e s s , s a f e t y , e f f i c i e n c y , r e l i a b i l i t y , v e r s a t i l i t y , and c o n v e n i e n c e were among the r e a s o n s g i v e n , as shown i n T a b l e 6.23. These q u a l i t i e s a re most c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s . D e s p i t e the s i m i l a r i t i e s , t h e r e i s some minor v a r i a t i o n i n the r e s p o n s e s g i v e n . For example, s a f e t y appears t o be of g r e a t e r c o n c e r n t o r e s p o n d e n t s from v i l l a g e h o useholds than i t i s t o households i n r u r a l towns and urban c e n t r e s , as i s the c o n v e n i e n c e of u s i n g a p a r t i c u l a r f u e l t y p e . These d i f f e r e n c e s may be a t t r i b u t e d t o the dangerous and h i g h l y l a b o r i n t e n s i v e n a t u r e of f i r e w o o d usage which i s c u r r e n t l y e x p e r i e n c e d by most v i l l a g e h o u s e h o l d s . Speed and e f f i c i e n c y , on the o t h e r hand, ar e the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s most v a l u e d by r e s p o n d e n t s i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns, where hou s e h o l d s a r e more c o n s c i o u s of time c o n s t r a i n t s . For water h e a t i n g p u r p o s e s , e l e c t r i c i t y and gas a r e the f u e l t y p e s most p r e f e r r e d by h o u s e h o l d s i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns, w h i l e i n v i l l a g e s , e l e c t r i c i t y and kerosene a r e most p r e f e r r e d . For water h e a t i n g , as f o r c o o k i n g , l e s s than ten p e r c e n t of households i n v i l l a g e s e x p r e s s a p r e f e r e n c e f o r T A B L E 6 . 2 3 FACTORS GOVERNING THE CHOICES OF FUEL TYPES MOST PREFERRED FOR COOKING PURPOSES BY HOUSEHOLDS WITHIN RURAL AND URBAN SETTINGS OF NIGERIA (PERCENTAGE RESPONSE) FUEL-RELATED URBAN CENTRES RURAL TOWNS VILLAGES TOTAL / RESPONSES / / N-480 KADUNA (NORTH) N-80 OWERRI (SOUTH-EAST) N-80 KACHIA (NORTH) N-80 ORLU (SOUTH-EAST) N-80 IDON (NORTH) N-80 MDI-UKWll (SOUTH-EAST) N-80 FAMILIAR _ - 7.50 (6) - - - 5.00 (4) 2.08 (10) RELIABLE SUPPLY 33.75 (27) 27 .50 (22) 41 .25 (33) 48.75 (39) 36.25 (29) 27 .50 (22) 3 5.83 (172) SAFE 38. 75 (31) 28.75 (23) 47 .50 (38) 52.50 (42) 63. 75 (51) 71 .^5 (57) 50.42 (242) CLEAN 58.75 (47) 65.00 (52) 57.50 (46) 53.75 (43) 43 .75 (35) 52.50 (42) 55.21 (265) EASY TO OBTAIN/ HANDLE 21 .25 (17) 31 .25 (25) 15.00 (12) 21 .25 (17) 41 .25 (33) 43.75 (35) 28.96 (139) INEXPENSIVE 1 1 .25 (9) 3 .75 (3) 21 .25 (17) 15.00 (12) 5 .00 (4) 13.75 (11) 11 .67 (56) STOVE/APPLIANCE RELATED LOW INVESTMENT COSTS 20.00 (16) 26.25 (21) 17.50 (14) 13.75 (11) 11.25 (9) 5.00 (4) 15.63 (75) YIELDS QUICK RESULTS/EASY TO OPK.RATF 60.00 (48) 67 .50 (53) 58.75 (47) 50.00 (40) 42.50 (34) 47.50 (38) 54 .38 (261) HANDLES LARGE COOK ING REQUIREMENTS 16.25 (13) : 18.75 (15) 8.75 (7) 25.00 (20) 12.50 (10) 13.54 (65) MU1.TI I'LE-PURPOSE USE 40.00 (32) 50.00 (40) 27.50 (22) 36.25 (29) 31 .25 (25) 21 .25 (17) 34.38 (165 215 gas, as demonstrated e a r l i e r i n Ta b l e 6.22. C l e a n l i n e s s , s a f e t y , speed, e f f i c i e n c y , r e l i a b i l i t y of s u p p l y and conv e n i e n c e a r e the most v a l u e d q u a l i t i e s of the p r e f e r r e d f u e l t y p e s . Once a g a i n , s a f e t y and c l e a n l i n e s s a r e the p r e f e r r e d q u a l i t i e s most o f t e n c i t e d by v i l l a g e h o u s e h o l d s , as shown i n Ta b l e 6.24. T h i s has i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r the proposed use of b i o g a s , which i s h i g h l y i n f l a m m a b l e and whose p r o d u c t i o n i s u n s a n i t a r y . As F r e n c h (1982:76) n o t e s , A ttempts a r e sometimes made t o j u s t i f y f a m i l y b i o g a s p l a n t s , f o r example, on the b a s i s of the pathogens they remove from wastes ... the b i o g a s p r o c e s s i n any case i n c r e a s e s the volume of u n t r e a t e d dung which p e o p l e a re r o u t i n e l y f o r c e d t o h a n d l e . In t h i s c a s e , any h e a l t h b e n e f i t s c l a i m e d f o r the system a r e i sheer i n v e n t i o n . For home l i g h t i n g , as shown p r e v i o u s l y i n T a b l e 6.22, almost a l l h ouseholds s u r v e y e d s t a t e d a p r e f e r e n c e f o r e l e c t r i c i t y , because i t i s c o n v e n i e n t t o use and i s h i q h l y e f f e c t i v e i n a d d i t i o n t o b e i n g s a f e , c l e a n , and e f f i c i e n t . These q u a l i t i e s a r e c o n s i s t e n t w i t h those i d e n t i f i e d by households which c u r r e n t l y use e l e c t r i c i t y f o r home l i g h t i n g , as shown i n T a b l e 6.25. A l s o shown i n T a b l e 6.22 i s t h a t e l e c t r i c i t y i s the f u e l most p r e f e r r e d f o r food p r e s e r v a t i o n purposes by the l a r g e m a j o r i t y of a l l h o u s e h o l d s i n t e r v i e w e d . S a f e t y , c l e a n l i n e s s , and c o n v e n i e n c e a r e once a g a i n the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s most a p p r e c i a t e d i n the use of e l e c t r i c i t y . The f r e s h t a s t e of food which has been f r o z e n or r e f r i g e r a t e d , and the m u l t i p l e f u n c t i o n s of e l e c t r i c a p p l i a n c e s used f o r food p r e s e r v a t i o n p urposes a r e a l s o i d e n t i f i e d as reasons f o r respondent p r e f e r e n c e s . A few respond e n t s f a v o r f i r e w o o d f o r food T A B L E 6 . 2 4 FACTORS GOVERNING THE CHOICES OF FUEL TYPES MOST PREFERRED FOR WATER HEATING PURPOSES BY HOUSE-HOLDS WITHIN RURAL AND URBAN SETTINGS OF NIGERIA. (PERCENTAGE RESPONSE) URBAN CENTRES RURAL TOWNS VILLAGES TOTAL / RESPONSES / / N-480 KADUNA (NORTH)-N-80 OWERRI (SOUTH-EAST) N-80 KACHIA (NORTH) N-80 ORLU (SOUTH-EAST) N-80 IDON (NORTH) N-80 MDI-UKWU (SOUTH-EAST) N-80 FUEL RELATED FAMILIAR -2.50 (2) 3.75 (3) 8.75 (7) 5 .00 (4) - 3.33 (6) RELIABLE SUPPLY 38.75 (31) • 53 .75 (43) 35.00 (28) 45.00 (26) 41 .25 (33) 37.50 (30) 41.88 (201) SAFE 46.25 (37) 26.25 (21) 53.75 (43) 52.50 (42) 68.75 (55) 6) .25 (49) 51.46 (247) CLEAN 56.25 (45) 62.50 (50) 57 .50 (46) 63.75 (51) 53.75 (43) 60.00 (48) 58.96 (283) EASY TO OBTAIN/ HANDLE 36.25 (29) 51 .25 (41) 26.25 (21) 16.25 (13) 43.75 (35) 46.25 (37) 36.67 (17 6) INEXPENSIVE 25.00 (20) 15.00 (12) 21 .25 (17) 12.50 (10) 27.50 (22) 22.50 (18) 20.63 (99) STOVE/APPLIANCE RELATED LOW INVESTMENT COSTS 12.50 (10) 21 .25 (17) 15.00 (12) 27.50 (22) 17 .50 (14) 13 .75 (11) 17.92 (86) YIELDS QUICK RESULTS/EASY TO OPERATE 50.00 (40) 67 .50 (54) 52.50 (42) 46.25 (37) 42.50 (34) 33.75 (27) 48.75 (234) HANDLES LARGE WATER HEATING REQUIREMENTS 10.00 (8) _ _ - - - 1.67 (8) MULTIPLE-PURPOSE USE 25.00 (20) - 35.00 (28) 27.50 (22) - 25.00 (20) 18.75 (90) T A B L E 6 . 2 5 FACTORS GOVERNING THE CHOICES OF FUEL TYPES MOST PREFERRED FOR HOMELICHTING PURPOSES BY HOUSEHOLDS WITHIN RURAL AND URBAN SETTINGS OF NIGERIA (PERCENTAGE RESPONSE) URBAN CENTRES RURAL TOWNS VILLAGES TOTAL / RESPONSES / / N-480 KADUNA (NORTH) N-80 OWERRI (SOUTH-EAST) N-80 KACHIA (NORTH) W-80 ORLU (SOUTH-EAST) N-80 IDON (NORTH) N-80 MDI-UKWU (SOUTH-EAST) N-80 FUEL-RELATED EFFECTIVE (GENERATES BRIGHT LIGHT) 70.00 (56) 58.75 (47) 81 .25 (65) 75.00 (60) 72.50 (58) 66.25 . (53) 70.63 (339) INEXPENSIVE - . _ : - 1.25 (1) 00. 21 (1) CLEAN 57.50 (46) 68.75 (55) 50.00 (40) 56.25 (45) 78.75 (63) 61 .25 (49) 62.08 (298) RELIABILITY OF SUPPLY 12.50 (10) 26.25 (21) 27.50 (22) 31.25 (25) 21.25 (17) 13.75 (11) 22.08 (106) SAFE 55.00 (44) 37.50 (30) 63.74 (51) 70.00 (56) 61.25 (49) 78 .75 (63) 61.04 (2 93) BEST OPTION 37.50 (30) 22.50 (18) 35.00 (28) - - 10.00 (8) 17 .50 (84) ONLY OPTION - _ - - - 1.25 (1) 00.21 (1) APPLIANCE-RELATED QUICK TO OPERATE 46.25 (37) 53.75 (43) 42.50 (34) 38.75 (31) 57.50 (46) 50.00 (40) 48.13 231 LOW INVESTMENT COSTS 21.25 (17) 32.50 (26) - 28.75 (23) 8.75 (7) 17.50 (14) 17.71 (85) 218 p r e s e r v a t i o n , but i t i s o b v i o u s t h a t the m a j o r i t y of households would w i l l i n g l y s a c r i f i c e the d i s t i n c t i v e f a v o r of smoked foods f o r more p r a c t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , as shown i n T a b l e 6.26. T a b l e 6.27 p r e s e n t s p e r c e n t a g e responses t o the q u e s t i o n which asked h o u s e h o l d s t o i d e n t i f y the f u e l t y p e s they would l i k e t o have p r o v i d e d f o r t h e i r use, i n o r d e r of p r e f e r e n c e . E l e c t r i c i t y i s the most p o p u l a r c h o i c e , f o l l o w e d by gas i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns, and by kerosene i n v i l l a g e s . D e s p i t e the v i r t u a l l y f r e e n a t u r e of f i r e w o o d and the h i g h f r e q u e n c y of i t s c u r r e n t usage i n v i l l a g e s t h roughout N i g e r i a , i t i s c l e a r l y not a p r e f e r r e d s o u r c e of f u e l . T h i s demonstrates t h a t v a l u e s a r e not s t a t i c . As s o c i o - e c o n o m i c s i t u a t i o n s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s improve, the s o c i o - b e h a v i o r a l v a r i a b l e s which shape the c h o i c e of f u e l s change. Energy o p t i o n s which a r e chosen b e g i n t o m i r r o r t h o s e used i n the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d . In a d d i t i o n t o p o s s e s s i n g the d e s i r e d q u a l i t i e s of s a f e t y , c l e a n l i n e s s , and c o n v e n i e n c e , e l e c t r i c i t y i s a l s o s u i t a b l e f o r use i n p e r f o r m i n g a l l major domestic t a s k s , i n c l u d i n g c o o k i n g , water h e a t i n g , food p r e s e r v a t i o n , and home l i g h t i n g . S t a t e d p r e f e r e n c e s f o r e i t h e r gas or k e r o s e n e , on the o t h e r hand, a r e r e s t r i c t e d f o r use i n c o o k i n g or water h e a t i n g . I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o note t h a t f i r e w o o d i s the o n l y t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l which appears among the most p r e f e r r e d f u e l s f o r domestic p u r p o s e s , and the p e r c e n t a g e of r e s p o n d e n t s which p r e f e r t h i s f u e l i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y low. 6.2 .1 D i s c u s s i o n As d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r , the t r e n d towards i n c r e a s e d usage of T A B L E 6 . 2 6 FACTORS GOV EHN 1 NO THE CHOICES OF FUEL TYPES MOST PREFERRED FOR FOOD PRESERVATION PURPOSES BY HOUSEHOLDS WITHIN RURAL AND URBAN SETTINGS OF NIGERIA (PERCENTAGE RESPONSES) FUEL-RELATED URBAN CEI ITRES RURAL TC MNS VILIACES TOTAL / RESPONSES / / U-480 KADUNA (NORTH) N-BO OWERRI (SOUTH-EAST) N-80 KACHIA (NORTH) N-80 ORLU (SOUTH-EAST) N-80 IDON (NORTH) N-80 MDI-UKUU (SOUTH-EAST) N-80 FAMILIAR 11 .23 (9) 6.25 (5) 12.50 (10) - 26.52 (21) 8.75 (7) 10.83 (52) RELIABLE SUPPLY 35.00 (28) 31 .25 (25) 46.25 (37) 41 .25 (33) 18.75 (15) 21 .25 (17) 32 .29 (155) SAFE 33.75 (27) 51 .25 (41) 57.50 (46) 72.50 (58) 63.75 (51) 60.00 (48) 56.46 (271) CLEAN 72 .50 (58) 76.25 (61) 66.25 (53) 57 .50 (46) 50.00 (40) 41 .25 (33) 60.6J (29) ) EASTY TO OBTAIN/ HANDLE 40.00 (32) 36.25 (29) 42.50 (34) 50.00 (40) 48.75 (39) 55.00 (44) 45.42 (218) INEXPENSIVE 8.75 (') 3.75 (3) _ 8.75 (7) 15.00 (12) 22.50 (18) 9.79 (47) PRODUCES PLEASANT FLAVOUR - 1 .25 (1) _ 6.25 (5) 1 .25 (6) ONLY OPTION - _ _ _ APPLIANCE-RELATED LOW INVESTMENT COSTS 8. lb (7) - 6.25 (5) 10.00 (8) 21 .25 (17) - 7.71 (37) USED TRADITIONALLY _ 1 .25 (1) _ - _ 6.25 (5) 1 .25 (6) MODERN -18.75 (15) _ _ 3.13 (15) PRESERVES FRESHNESS 38.75 (31) 30.00 (24) 38.75 (31) 41 .25 (33) 31 .25 (25) 25.00 (20) 34. 17 (164) MULTIPLE USE 51 .25 (41 ) 45.00 (36) 30.00 (24) 17.50 (14) 25.00 (20) 53.75 (43) | 37 .08 (1 78) T A B L E 6 . 2 7 FUEL TYPES WHICH THE HOUSEHOLDS WOULD LIKE TO HAVE PROVIDED FOR THEIR USE IN ORDER OF PREFERENCES -CASE STUDIES OF RURAL AND URBAN SETTINGS OF NIGERIA (PERCENTAGE RESPONSE) URBAN CENTRES RURAL TOWNS VILLAGES KADUNA (NORTH) OWERRI (SOUTH-EAST) KACHIA (NORTH) ORLU (SOUTH-EAST) IDON (NORTH) MDI-UKWU (SOUTH-EAST) 1st 2nd 3rd 1st 2nd 3rd 1st 2nd 3rd 1st 2nd 3rd 1st 2nd 3rd 1st 2nd 3rd ANIMAL DUNG - ' --- -- - ----- - - - - - -CHARCOAL - - 2.50 (2) - --- - 6.25 (5) --7.50 (6) --3.75 (3) - 1 .25 (1) 12.50 (10) FIREWOOD 3 .75 (3) 5.00 (4) 15.00 (12) 1 .25 (1) 7.50 (6) 16.25 (13) - 10.00 (8) '30.00 (24) - 6.25 (5) 8 .75 (7) 6.25 (5) 11 .25 (9) 32.50 (26) 12.50 (10) -33 .75 (27) SAWDUST - -- ------- - 1 .25 (1) -- - - - -ELECTRICITY 86.25 (69) 13 .75 (11) - 93 .75 (75) 6.25 (5) - 88/75 (71) 8.75 (7) 1 .25 (1) 95.00 (76) 2.50 (2) 2.50 (2) 92.50 (74) --83 .75 (67) 3.75 (3) -GAS 8.75 (7) 56.25 (45) 13 .75 F - - - 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 - - - 0.0001 0.0001 0.0474 0.0001 0.9803 0.3578 FOR HOi. VARIANCES ARE UNQUAL T-VALUE - _ - 5.94 15.08 3.70 - - - 16.87 14 .51 3.41 2.97 0.31 0.95 PROB>ltl - - - 0.0001 0.0001 0.0004 - - - 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.004 0.7546 0.3437 yW.s.) (U.S.) N.S. - NOT SIGNIFICANT KADUNA = URBAN CENTRE OWERRI - URBAN CENTRE KACHIA - RURAL TOWN ORLU • RURAL TOWN IDON » VILLAGE MDI-UKWU - VILLAGE 239 TABLB 6 . 9 3 TOTAL MONTHLY NONTRADITIONAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ( I N MEGAJOULES) AS FUNCTIONS OF MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE CATEGORIES FOR URBAN BETTINGS WITHIN NIGERIA URBAN CENTRES KADUNA (NORTH) N • = 60 TEST FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 b t - VALUE PROB ( t ) 444.640 31.905) T FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 1.39 PROB ( t ) 0.1674 216.014 (31.351) Household Income 67.649 (50.230) Household S i z e 7.60 1.36 0.0001 0.1820 H* - 0.50 F-VALUE = 36.84 PROB(F) = 0.0001 OWERRI (SOUTH-EAST) N = 60 TEST FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 a» b t - VALUE PROB ( t ) 379.758 (56.296) T FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 4. 97 PROB ( t ) 0.0001 40.245 (4.926) Household Income 31.069 (9.069) H o u s e h o l d S i z e 8.17 3.21 0.0001 0.0019 Re * 0.53 F-VALUE = 43.58 PROB(F) = 0.0001 ( S t a n d a r d e r r o r i n p a r e n t h e s e s ) NTE = a 0 • B tHI • B BHS + E where NTE = N o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy consumption, HI = Ho u s e h o l d income, HS = Household s i z e , and E = E r r o r term 240 TABLE 8.34 TOTAL MONTHLY NONTRADITIONAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ( I N MEGAJOULES) AS FUNCTIONS OF MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE CATEGORIES FOB BUBAL SETTINGS WITHIN NIOEBIA BURAL TOWNS KACHIA (NORTH) N = 80 TEST FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 291.261 (35.285) T FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 6.25 PROB ( t ) 0.0001 35.567 (3.55) Household Income 8.700 (6.700) Household S i z e t - VALUE 10.02 1 .30 PROB ( t ) 0.0001 0.1979 R 2 = 0.60 F-VALUE = 56.02 PROB(F) = 0.0001 OBLU (SOUTH-EAST) N = 80 TEST FOB HO: PARAMETER = 0 a_a b t - VALUE PROB ( t ) 199.852 39.800 11.73 0.0001 (42.620) (3.393) Household T FOR HO: Income PARAMETER = 0 8.929 1.21 0.2282 4.69 (7.345) H o u s e h o l d PROB ( t l S i z e 0.0001 R 2 = 0.64 F-VALUE = 68.95 PROB(F) = 0.0001 ( S t a n d a r d e r r o r i n p a r e n t h e s e s ) Where NTE = a 0 + B i H I + BgHS + E 2 4 1 TABLE 8.SB TOTAL MONTHLY NONTRADITIONAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ( I N MEGAJOULES) AS FUNCTIONS OF MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE CATEGORIES FOR VILLAGE SETTINGS WITHIN NIOERIA VILLAGES IDON (NORTH) N = 80 TEST FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 34.0339 (4.01) I EOR HO: PARAMETER • 0 8.49 PROB ( t ) 0.0001 8.776 (0.937) Household Income 0.797 (0.683) HousehoId S i z e t - VALUE 9.36 1. 17 PROB ( t ) 0.0001 0.2469 RZ 0.60 F-VALUE = 57.63 PROB(F) = 0.0001 NDI-UKWU (SOUTH-EAST) N = 80 TEST FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 41.933 (5.603) T FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 7.48 PROB i H 0.0001 R 2 = 0.40 t - VALUE 6.60 PROB ( t ) 0.0001 0.15 0.8834 8.203 (2.234) H o u s e h o l d Income 0.151 ( 1.026) Household S i z e F-VALUE = 25.70 PROB(F) = 0.0001 ( S t a n d a r d e r r o r i n p a r e n t h e s e s ) Where NTE «= a 0 + B,HI • B 2HS • E 242 urban c e n t r e s , r u r a l towns, and v i l l a g e s . In a l l c a s e s the c o e f f i c i e n t s of r e g r e s s i o n f o r the independent v a r i a b l e s have p o s i t i v e s i g n s . However, o n l y income i s s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t i n e x p l a i n i n g v a r i a t i o n s i n n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy consumption l e v e l s , as shown by r e s u l t s of the t - t e s t . These f i n d i n g s a r e c o n s i s t e n t w i t h the answers t o q u e s t i o n s c o n c e r n i n g f u e l use f r e q u e n c y , which show t h a t n e a r l y a l l h i g h income households i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns f r e q u e n t l y r e l y on e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s f o r c o o k i n g and water h e a t i n g p u r p o s e s , as do households i n the m i d d l e income c a t e g o r y . However, o n l y a s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n of low income h o u s e h o l d s i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns use e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s on a f r e q u e n t b a s i s . The s t u d y shows t h a t a number of i n t a n g i b l e f a c t o r s d e t e r m i n e a f u e l ' s d e s i r a b i l i t y by h o u s e h o l d s i n N i g e r i a . However, i t s use i s c o n s t r a i n e d by t a n g i b l e f a c t o r s , such as income l e v e l s and the a v a i l a b i l i t y of s u p p l y . As D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , (1981b:57) e x p l a i n , As incomes r i s e , h o u s e h o l d s p l a c e r e l a t i v e l y g r e a t e r v a l u e on c o n v e n i e n c e compared t o the p o s s i b l e s a v i n g s f o r u s i n g cheaper f u e l s . . . . In both r u r a l and urban a r e a s , a t the l o w e s t income l e v e l s energy i s m a i n l y used f o r c o o k i n g . At h i g h e r l e v e l s of income, the range of h o u s e h o l d energy demand expands t o uses such as l i g h t i n g , water h e a t i n g , i r o n i n g , r a d i o s and f ans. Moreover, Fernandez (1980), i n h i s survey of h o u s e h o l d energy use i n s e l e c t e d non-OPEC d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , s u g g e s t s t h a t i n urban a r e a s t h e r e i s h i g h income e l a s t i c i t y f o r n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s w h i l e , i n r u r a l a r e a s , income e l a s t i c i t i e s a r e s i m i l a r f o r b o t h t r a d i t i o n a l and n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s . T h i s i s not due t o d i f f e r e n c e s i n h o u s e h o l d s ' a t t i t u d e s toward e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy t e c h n o l o g i e s and c o n v e n i e n c e s a s s o c i a t e d 243 w i t h t h e i r use. Data p r e s e n t e d e a r l i e r show t h a t h ouseholds a c r o s s urban c e n t r e s , r u r a l towns, and v i l l a g e s would p r e f e r t o use e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s i f they were a v a i l a b l e and a f f o r d a b l e . T h i s i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h f i n d i n g s by Morgan (1983:60) i n h i s study of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , which l e d him t o c o n c l u d e t h a t , F r e q u e n t l y , s u r v e y s i n d i c a t e t h a t r u r a l p e o p l e would much p r e f e r t o cook w i t h e l e c t r i c i t y , gas, or kerosene r a t h e r than f i r e w o o d , but e i t h e r l a c k the income n e c e s s a r y or a r e s i m p l y unable t o g a i n a c c e s s t o the p r e f e r r e d f u e l s . I t i s r e a s o n a b l e t o assume, t h e r e f o r e , t h a t as s o c i o - e c o n o m i c s i t u a t i o n s improve i n N i g e r i a n v i l l a g e s , the energy consumption p a t t e r n s of v i l l a g e h o useholds w i l l m i r r o r those of households i n urban c e n t r e s and towns. In terms of h o u s e h o l d s i z e , a l t h o u g h a n a l y s i s c o n f i r m s the e x p e c t a t i o n t h a t consumption of e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy i n c r e a s e s as ho u s e h o l d s i z e i n c r e a s e s , t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p i s not s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t . Data p r e s e n t e d e a r l i e r show t h a t h o u s e h o l d s which use c u r r e n t l y a v a i l a b l e n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s do so p r i m a r i l y f o r the purposes of c o o k i n g and water h e a t i n g . As a ho u s e h o l d ' s income i n c r e a s e s , however, a d d i t i o n a l c o n v e n i e n c e s ar e p u r c h a s e d , and consumption l e v e l s i n c r e a s e as known n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s a r e used f o r c o o l i n g , f o o d p r e s e r v a t i o n , and e n t e r t a i n m e n t p u r p o s e s . When hou s e h o l d s i z e r a t h e r than h o u s e h o l d income i n c r e a s e s , however, consumption l e v e l s of e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s r i s e o n l y i n response t o a g r e a t e r demand f o r c o o k i n g and water h e a t i n g p u r p o s e s . Moreover, known n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s f e a t u r e an e f f i c i e n c y r a t e of f i f t y t o s i x t y p e r c e n t , u n l i k e t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s , which a r e j u s t f i v e t o 244 f i f t e e n p e r c e n t e f f i c i e n t ( D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , 1981b). The h i g h e f f i c i e n c y of e x i s t i n g n o n - t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e r e w i l l be l i t t l e v a r i a t i o n i n t h e c o n s u m p t i o n o f n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s among s m a l l , m i d d l e - s i z e d , and l a r g e h o u s e h o l d s . I t i s u n d e r s t a n d a b l e , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t a l t h o u g h h o u s e h o l d c o n s u m p t i o n o f e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s i n c r e a s e s a s a f u n c t i o n o f h o u s e h o l d s i z e , t h e d e g r e e o f s u c h an i n c r e a s e i s i n s i g n i f i c a n t . 6.4 .3 T o t a l Energy Consumption T a b l e s 6.36, 6.37 and 6.38 show t h e r e s u l t s o f r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s c o n c e r n i n g t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t o t a l m o n t h l y e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n (TEC) and t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s of h o u s e h o l d income (HI) and h o u s e h o l d s i z e (HS) by l o c a t i o n , e x p r e s s e d a s : TEC = a 0 + B,HI + B 2HS + E (where a 0 i s t h e i n t e r c e p t and E i s t h e e r r o r term) R e s u l t s f o r u r b a n c e n t r e s , r u r a l towns and v i l l a g e s show t h a t r e g a r d l e s s o f l o c a t i o n , t o t a l m o n t h l y e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n by h o u s e h o l d s i n c r e a s e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n r e l a t i o n t o h i g h e r income and l a r g e r h o u s e h o l d s i z e . T a b l e s 6.39, 6.40, and 6.41 show t h e r e s u l t s o f r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s c o n c e r n i n g t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t o t a l m o n t h l y f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e s on e n e r g y f o r d o m e s t i c p u r p o s e s (TFE) and t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s o f h o u s e h o l d income ( H i ) and h o u s e h o l d s i z e ( H S), by l o c a t i o n . T h i s i s e x p r e s s e d a s : TFE =a 0 + B 1 HI + B 2HS + E R e s u l t s o f t h i s a n a l y s i s show s i g n i f i c a n t d i f i e r e n c e s on t h e b a s i s o f l o c a t i o n . In u r b a n c e n t r e s o f b o t h n o r t h e r n and 2 4 5 TABLE 6 . 3 6 TOTAL MONTHLY ENEBOY CONSUMPTION ( I N MEGAJOULES) FOB DOMESTIC PURPOSES AS FUNCTIONS OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE FOB URBAN SETTINGS WITHIN NIGERIA URBAN CENTRES 326.275 (30.745) T FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 1.06 PROB ( t ) 0.2920 R 2 = 0.50 KADUNA (NORTH) N = 80 TEST FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 b t - VALUE 177.517 6.75 (26.358) Household Income 169.660 3.50 (48.408) Household S i z e PROB ( t ) 0.0001 0.0008 F-VALUE = 32.16 PROB(F) = 0.0001 407.806 (62.802) T FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 6.49 PROB ( t ) 0.0001 RK = 0.61 OWERRI (SOUTH-EAST) N = 80 TEST FOR HO: PARAMETER « 0 13.331 (5.495) Household Income 109.806 (10.804) Household S i z e t - VALUE 2.43 PROB ( t ) 0.018 10.13 0.0001 F-VALUE = 59.44 PROB(F) =0.0001 ( S t a n d a r d e r r o r i n p a r e n t h e s e s ) 2 4 6 TABLE 6.37 TOTAL MONTHLY BNBBOY CONSUMPTION ( I N MEGAJOULES) FOB DOMESTIC PUBPOSBS AS FUNCTIONS OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE FOB BUBAL SETTINGS WITHIN NIOEBIA BUBAL TOWNS KACHIA (NORTH) N = 80 TEST FOB HO: PARAMETER = 0 373.133 (42.861) T FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 8.71 PBOB ( t ) 0.0001 20.168 (4.314) Household Income 81.041 (8.137) Household S i z e t - VALUE 4.68 9.96 PBOB ( t ) 0.0001 0.0001 B* = 0.66 F-VALUE = 77.14 PBOB(F) = 0.0001 219.299 (86.135) T FOB HO: PARAMETER = 0 2.49 PROB ( t ) 0.0150 Re = 0.50 OBLU (SOUTH-EAST) N = 80 TEST FOB HO: PABAMETER = 0 t - VALUE 3.43 PROB ( t ) 0.0010 7.77 0.0001 72.841 (21.198) Household Income 269.841 (34.730) Household S i z e F-VALUE = 34.49 PROB(F) = 0.0001 ( S t a n d a r d e r r o r i n p a r e n t h e s e s ) 247 TABLE 6.30 TOTAL MONTHLY ENERGY CONSUMPTION ( I N MEGAJOULES) FOR DOMESTIC PURPOSES AS FUNCTIONS OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE FOR VILLAGE SETTINGS WITHIN NIGERIA VILLAGES IDON (NORTH) N = 00 TEST FOR HO: PARAMETER =. 0 a n b t - VALUE PROB ( t ) 290.760 27.675 4.14 0.0001 (20.656) (6.605) Household T FOR HO: Income PARAMETER = 0 00.093 16.57 0.0001 10.43 (4.002) Household PROB ( t ) S i z e 0.0001 R2 = 0.04 F-VALUE = 203.20 PROB(F) = 0.0001 NDI-UKWU (SOUTH-BAST) N = 00 TEST FOR HO: PARAMETER =. 0 a n b t - VALUE PROB ( t ) 330.701 24.301 3.64 0.0005 (30.100) (6.601) HousehoId T FOR HO: Income PARAMETER = 0 76.902 13.96 0.0001 11.25 Household S i z e PROB ( t ) 0.0001 R E = 0.00 F-VALUE = 150.12 PROB(F) = 0.0001 ( S t a n d a r d e r r o r i n p a r e n t h e s e s ) 248 TABLE 8.39 TOTAL MONTHLY FINANCIAL EXPENDITURE ON ENERGY FOE DOMESTIC PURPOSES ( I N NAIRA) AS FUNCTIONS OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND H6USEHOLD SIZE FOB URBAN SETTINGS WITHIN NIGERIA URBAN CENTRES KADUNA (NOBTH) N = 80 TEST FOB HOt PABAMETEB = 0 a_a. b t - VALUE PROB ( t ) 5.739 0.182 0.90 0.3711 (2.490) (0.213) Household T FOR HO: Income PARAMETER = 0 3.469 8.85 0.0001 2.30 (0.392) Household PROB ( t ) S i z e 0.02 Re = 0.52 F-VALUE = 41.09 PROB(F) = 0.0001 OWEBBI (SOUTH-EAST) N = 80 TEST FOB HO: PABAMETEB = 0 4.298 (4.310) I FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 1.00 PROB ( t ) 0.32 b 0.798 (1.164) Household Income 9.518 ( 1.854) Household S i z e t - VALUE 0.69 5. 14 PROB ( t ) 0.4952 0.0001 Re = 0.30 F-VALUE = 13.23 PROB(F) = 0.0001 ( S t a n d a r d e r r o r i n p a r e n t h e s e s ) 249 TABLE 8.40 TOTAL MONTHLY FINANCIAL EXPENDITUBE ON ENERGY FOB DOMESTIC PURPOSES ( I N NAIBA) AS FUNCTIONS OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE FOB BUBAL SETTINGS WITHIN NIGERIA BUBAL TOWNS KACHIA (NOBTH) N = 80 TEST FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 0.690 (3.334) T FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 0.30 PROB ( t ) 0.767E 3.035 (0.707) Household Income 4.599 (1.038) Household S i z e t - VALUE 4.38 4.43 PROB ( t ) 0.0001 0.0001 R* = 0.40 F-VALUE = 33.66 PROB(F) = 0.0001 ORLU (SOUTH-BAST) N = 80 TEST FOR HO: PARAMETER 5 0 a». b t - VALUE PROB ( t ) 1.374 3.854 11.11 0.0001 (1.443) (0.347) Household T FOR HO: Income PARAMETER = 0 1.359 3.33 0.0397 0.95 (0.568) Household PROB ( t ) S i z e 0.344 R* = 0.63 F-VALUE = 63.85 PROB(F) = 0.0001 ( S t a n d a r d e r r o r i n p a r e n t h e s e s ) 250 TABLE 6 . 4 1 TOTAL MONTHLY FINANCIAL EXPENDITUBE ON ENERGY FOB DOMESTIC PURPOSES ( I N NAIBA) AS FUNCTIONS OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE FOB VILLAGE SETTINGS WITHIN NIGEBIA VILLAGES IDON (NORTH) N = 80 TEST FOR HO: PARAMETER = 0 i t b t - VALUE PROB ( t ) 0.0329 0.098 8.14 0.0001 (0.051) (0.0121) Household T FOR HO: Income PARAMETER = 0 -0.004 0.41 0.6802 6.38 (0.009) Household PROB ( t ) S i z e 0.0001 R 2 = 0.50 F-VALUE = 37.56 PROB(F) = 0.0001 NDI-UKWU (SOUTH-BAST) N = 80 TEST FOR BO: PARAMETER = 0 a* b t - VALUE PROB ( t ) 0.165 0.401 7.12 0.0001 (0.113) (0.056) Household T FOR HO: Income PARAMETER = 0 -0.103 2.09 0.0400 1.46 (0.048) Household PROB ( t ) S i z e 0.149 R 2 = 0.40 F-VALUE = 25.66 PROB(F) = 0.0001 ( S t a n d a r d e r r o r i n p a r e n t h e s e s ) 251 s o u t h e a s t e r n a r e a s of N i g e r i a , t o t a l monthly f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e s on energy by hou s e h o l d s f o r domestic purposes i n c r e a s e as h o u s e h o l d income and ho u s e h o l d s i z e i n c r e a s e . However, as shown by the r e s u l t s of the t - t e s t s , a l t h o u g h the e f f e c t of h o u s e h o l d s i z e i s s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t , t h a t of household income i s n o t . T h i s i s l i k e l y due t o the f a c t t h a t h i g h e r income households a r e a b l e t o a f f o r d the a p p l i a n c e s r e q u i r e d f o r use of e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s , and t h e r e f o r e use p e t r o l e u m based energy. In the urban c e n t r e s the c o s t of thes e n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s i s l e s s than t h a t of t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s such as f i r e w o o d and c h a r c o a l , because the c o s t of n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s i s s u b s i d i z e d and because the sou r c e of most t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s i s f a r removed from urban c e n t r e s . In r u r a l towns, on the o t h e r hand, t o t a l monthly f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e s on energy by households i n c r e a s e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h b oth h o u s e h o l d income and h o u s e h o l d s i z e . As i s the case i n urban c e n t r e s , h i g h income h o u s e h o l d s i n r u r a l towns r e l y p r i m a r i l y on e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s . However, due t o low l e v e l s of s u p p l y and c o s t l y d i s t r i b u t i o n systems i n r u r a l towns, the c o s t of p e t r o l e u m based energy i n the s e l o c a t i o n s i s much g r e a t e r than i n urban c e n t r e s . At the same t i m e , t r a d i t i o n a l energy s u p p l i e s c o s t much l e s s i n r u r a l towns because of t h e i r p r o x i m i t y t o f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s which r e p r e s e n t a f r e e source of s u p p l y t o most h o u s e h o l d s . In v i l l a g e s t h e r e i s an i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t o t a l monthly f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e s on energy r e s o u r c e consumption and h o u s e h o l d s i z e , w h i l e t h e r e i s a p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t o t a l monthly f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e s f o r f u e l and ho u s e h o l d income. As was shown e a r l i e r , v i l l a g e h o useholds 252 depend almost e x c l u s i v e l y on t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s t o meet t h e i r c o o k i n g , water h e a t i n g , and food p r e s e r v a t i o n needs. S i n c e s u p p l i e s can be o b t a i n e d d i r e c t from the s u r r o u n d i n g f o r e s t s , i t f o l l o w s t h a t the l a r g e r the h o u s e h o l d the g r e a t e r the l a b o r f o r c e a v a i l a b l e t o c u t and t r a n s p o r t fuelwood. In such a case the h o u s e h o l d i s u n l i k e l y t o meet many of i t s energy needs t h r o u g h the market p l a c e . R e s u l t s of the a n a l y s i s of r e l a t i o n s h i p s between t o t a l monthly f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e s by households f o r energy, and such independent v a r i a b l e s as h o u s e h o l d income l e v e l s and h o u s e h o l d s i z e , by l o c a t i o n , suggest t h a t l o c a t i o n i s the most i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n e x p l a i n i n g v a r i a t i o n s i n t o t a l monthly f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e s f o r energy s u p p l i e s by N i g e r i a n h o u s e h o l d s . 6.4 .4 P o l i c y I m p l i c a t i o n s A n a l y s i s of monthly energy consumption f o r domestic purposes by households i n t e r v i e w e d i n urban c e n t r e s , r u r a l towns and v i l l a g e s of n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n N i g e r i a shows t h a t urban growth, r e i n f o r c e d by r i s i n g income l e v e l s , l e a d s t o i n c r e a s i n g dependence on e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s , which a r e p e t r o l e u m based; t r a d i t i o n a l , renewable s o u r c e s of energy p l a y a d e c l i n i n g r o l e i n t o t a l energy consumption by households f o r d o m e s t i c p u r p o s e s . There appear t o be two main causes of t h i s t r e n d , one of which i s the e x p a n s i o n of domestic energy demands f o r s e r v i c e s such as c o o l i n g , e n t e r t a i n m e n t , and r e f r i g e r a t i o n , which cannot be s a t i s f i e d by t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s i n t h e i r p r e s e n t form. The second cause i s the tendency of 253 h o u s e h o l d s t o p l a c e a h i g h v a l u e on c l e a n l i n e s s and c o n v e n i e n c e i n the use of f u e l s f o r domestic p u r p o s e s , q u a l i t i e s which a r e most o f t e n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s . In many i n s t a n c e s , urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns c r e a t e s i t u a t i o n s which f a c i l i t a t e such changes i n h o u s e h o l d energy consumption p a t t e r n s , t h r o u g h p r o v i s i o n of c u r r e n t l y used n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy s u p p l y systems and government p r i c e c o n t r o l p o l i c i e s or s u b s i d y of k e r o s e n e , l i q u e f i e d p e t r o l e u m gas, and e l e c t r i c i t y . The s a l e of a p p l i a n c e s r e q u i r i n g e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s f o r t h e i r o p e r a t i o n i s a l s o c o n c e n t r a t e d i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns. Moreover, t h r o u g h d i v e r s e economic a c t i v i t y c e n t e r e d i n t h e s e a r e a s , h o u s e h o l d s i n towns and c i t i e s a r e a b l e t o e arn h i g h e r incomes than do v i l l a g e h o u s e h o l d s , making i t p o s s i b l e f o r them t o a f f o r d e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s and the a p p l i a n c e s f o r t h e i r use. T h i s s i t u a t i o n has s e v e r a l p o l i c y i m p l i c a t i o n s . F i r s t l y , u r b a n i z a t i o n i s an i m p o r t a n t a s p e c t of r e g i o n a l development p o l i c i e s i n N i g e r i a . E s t i m a t e s i n d i c a t e t h e r e w i l l be an a n n u a l u r b a n i z a t i o n r a t e of two t o f o u r p e r c e n t between 1985 and 1995. As t h i s study shows, t h i s w i l l l e a d t o i n c r e a s e d dependence by households on e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of e nergy, such as p e t r o l e u m o i l which a r e a l s o r e q u i r e d f o r the c o u n t r y s f o r e i g n exchange e a r n i n g s . I t i s r e a s o n a b l e t o assume t h a t consumption of o i l by the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r w i l l a l s o i n c r e a s e as a r e s u l t of f u r t h e r u r b a n i z a t i o n , and t h i s has s e r i o u s i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r the proposed p e t r o c h e m i c a l i n d u s t r y , w h ich r e q u i r e s o i l f o r i t s f e e d s t o c k . R a p i d u r b a n i z a t i o n p o l i c i e s a r e not unique t o N i g e r i a . As 254 Morgan (1983:59) o b s e r v e s , U r b a n i z a t i o n i s a worldwide phenomenon a s s o c i a t e d w i t h economic and s o c i a l t r a n s f o r m a t i o n from the i n d u s t r i a l and power r e v o l u t i o n i n Europe i n the e a r l y 19th c e n t u r y t o the s p r e a d of i n d u s t r i a l growth, a g r i c u l t u r a l change and commerce thro u g h o u t the w o r l d , more e s p e c i a l l y i n the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s s i n c e e a r l y 1950 s. C u r r e n t l y , j u s t t h i r t y p e r c e n t of the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n of the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i s urban, compared w i t h f o r t y p e r c e n t of the w o r l d as a whole. However, i t i s e s t i m a t e d t h a t t h e s e f i g u r e s w i l l i n c r e a s e t o f o r t y - s i x p e r c e n t and f i f t y - t w o p e r c e n t r e s p e c t i v e l y by the year 2000 (World Bank, 1979c). I f p r e s e n t t r e n d s p e r s i s t t h e r e w i l l then be f o r t y c i t i e s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d w i t h p o p u l a t i o n s of over f i v e m i l l i o n p e o p l e each, compared t o t w e l v e such c i t i e s i n the i n d u s t r a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s . As urban p o p u l a t i o n s c o n t i n u e t o grow more r a p i d l y than r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n s , the p r o p o r t i o n of e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s b e i n g consumed w i l l a l s o c o n t i n u e t o grow, p a r t i c u l a r l y p e t r o l e u m based f u e l s . In many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s such growth w i l l l e a d t o dependence on i m p o r t e d p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s , w o r s e n i n g not o n l y the b a l a n c e of payments s i t u a t i o n of t h e s e c o u n t r i e s , but a l s o w o r l d dependence on r a p i d l y d e p l e t i n g p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s . The c u r r e n t g l o b a l o i l g l u t has c r e a t e d a f a l s e sense of energy s e c u r i t y , lowered the p r i o r i t y l e v e l of o i l e x p l o r a t i o n , the s e a r c h f o r s u b s t i t u t e f u e l s , and development of energy c o n s e r v a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s . Morgan (1983) c o n t e n d s , however, t h a t the o i l g l u t may not l a s t l o n g , and t h a t a g e n e r a l s i t u a t i o n of s u p p l y b e i n g s h o r t of demand seems l i k e l y over the next t h i r t y t o f o r t y y e a r s . The c o n v e r s i o n of c o a l i n t o energy forms s u i t a b l e f o r 255 urban consumption i s a v i a b l e s h o r t - t e r m method of r e d u c i n g dependence on p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s . T e c h n o l o g i e s f o r the c o n v e r s i o n of c o a l t o e l e c t r i c i t y a r e f a m i l i a r , and c o a l r e s o u r c e s a r e d i s t r i b u t e d more e x t e n s i v e l y than those of o i l or gas. I n c e n t i v e s s h o u l d be p r o v i d e d f o r investment i n c o a l e x p l o r a t i o n and development of mines as w e l l as c o n s t r u c t i o n of energy c o n v e r s i o n p l a n t s . Such i n c e n t i v e s may t a k e the form of t a x r e b a t e s . At the same t i m e , government s h o u l d remove p r i c e s u b s i d i e s on p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s f o r r e s i d e n t i a l use. To d a t e , towns and c i t i e s of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s have been n e g l e c t e d i n s t u d i e s of a l t e r n a t i v e new energy s u p p l y s t u d i e s , w i t h emphasis h a v i n g been p l a c e d on u n s o p h i s t i c a t e d t e c h n o l o g i e s aimed a t r u r a l consumers. Y e t , the r e c o r d shows t h a t t h e s e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e p u r s u i n g p o l i c i e s aimed a t r a p i d u r b a n i z a t i o n , which b r i n g s w i t h i t i n c r e a s e d demand f o r e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l forms of energy. What i s needed i s n e i t h e r emphasis on towns and c i t i e s nor on v i l l a g e s , but an e x a m i n a t i o n of the s o c i o - e c o n o m i c changes which a r e t a k i n g p l a c e , the consequences of a c o n t i n u o u s f l o w of urban l i f e s t y l e s t o r u r a l a r e a s , and the i m p l i c a t i o n s of such changes f o r l o c a l f u e l use c h o i c e s . Energy t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r the c o n v e r s i o n of new forms of renewable f u e l s t o s o u r c e s of energy which a r e c o m p a t i b l e w i t h user p r e f e r e n c e s and e x p e c t a t i o n s s h o u l d be d e v e l o p e d , and systems e s t a b l i s h e d t o a v o i d f u r t h e r growth of urban c e n t r e s based on i n f r a s t r u c t u r e which i s i n c o m p a t i b l e w i t h the c o n v e r s i o n of new forms of renewable s o u r c e s of energy t o f u e l t y p e s t o be a c c e p t a b l e t o the i n t e n d e d u s e r s . The l o n g e r t h e d e l a y , the more d i f f i c u l t i t w i l l become t o a l t e r e x i s t i n g systems. 256 A second major f i n d i n g i n the a n a l y s i s of energy consumption by N i g e r i a n h ouseholds i s the p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between h o u s e h o l d s i z e and consumption l e v e l s of t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s . In v i l l a g e s t h e r e a r e few a l t e r n a t i v e s t o t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of energy f o r the performance of h o u s e h o l d t a s k s , and the l a r g e r , the h o u s e h o l d the g r e a t e r w i l l be i t s consumption of t h e s e f u e l s . In urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns, the s t o v e s which use t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s a r e more s u i t a b l e f o r heavy c o o k i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s , p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r households i n low income groups which a r e unable t o i n v e s t i n gas or e l e c t r i c s t o v e s . The d a t a show, i n f a c t , t h a t most of the households c u r r e n t l y u s i n g t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns a r e from the low income c a t e g o r y , and the l a r g e r the h o u s e h o l d the g r e a t e r the f u e l c onsumption. The e f f e c t s of h o u s e h o l d s i z e on consumption of t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s i s l i k e l y t o be f e l t g r e a t e s t i n v i l l a g e s , where h i g h v a l u e i s a t t a c h e d t o l a r g e f a m i l y s i z e , and where extended f a m i l y systems a r e s t i l l adhered t o . As the World Bank (1981b:113) e x p l a i n s , I t i s t r u e t h a t p o p u l a t i o n growth u s u a l l y d e c l i n e s as u r b a n i z a t i o n p roceeds and as e d u c a t i o n and o t h e r a s p e c t s of m o d e r n i z a t i o n become more w i d e l y a v a i l a b l e . P a r e n t s t e n d t o want s m a l l f a m i l i e s i n urban s e t t i n g s where the extended f a m i l y no l o n g e r e x i s t s t o p r o v i d e c h i l d c a r e , where c h i l d r e n a r e no l o n g e r p r o d u c e r s but a r e \"consumers\" i n s c h o o l , and where mothers a r e h i g h l y e d ucated and have o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o earn income o u t s i d e the home. l n b r i e f , m o d e r n i z a t i o n b r i n g s a d e c l i n e i n f e r t i l i t y - the \"demographic t r a n s i t i o n \" . N e v e r t h e l e s s , a t a growth r a t e of s i x p e r c e n t each y e a r , the p o p u l a t i o n of N i g e r i a i s growing f a s t e r than the u r b a n i z a t i o n r a t e , which i s a t two p e r c e n t t o f o u r p e r c e n t a n n u a l l y . There i s l i t t l e doubt t h a t t h e r e w i l l soon be more p e o p l e than the 257 t r a d i t i o n a l f o r e s t e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s c a n s u s t a i n . The p r o b l e m w i l l be compounded by i n c r e a s e s i n t h e demand f o r f o r e s t l a n d f o r u s e s s u c h as a g r i c u l t u r e and h o u s i n g . One s t e p commonly t a k e n by d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i n an a t t e m p t t o r e p l e n i s h d w i n d l i n g s u p p l i e s of t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s i s t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f f u e l w o o d p l a n t a t i o n s and r e f o r e s t a t i o n p r o j e c t s . Such p r o j e c t s a r e o f t e n u n d e r t a k e n w i t h t h e a s s i s t a n c e o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l a g e n c i e s s u c h a s t h e W o r l d Bank and F o o d and A g r i c u l t u r e O r g a n i z a t i o n o f t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , many of t h e s e p r o j e c t s have f a i l e d , as v i l l a g e r s show l i t t l e i n t e r e s t i n c a r i n g f o r f i r e w o o d p l a n t a t i o n s , a n d a l l o w them t o be b u r n e d , damaged by l i v e s t o c k , o r c u t f o r f u e l b e f o r e t h e y a r e w e l l e s t a b l i s h e d ( D u n k e r l e y e t a l . , 1 9 81b). Such c a r e l e s s n e s s c a n o n l y be t h e r e s u l t o f i g n o r a n c e c o n c e r n i n g t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f s u c h p r o j e c t s . E d u c a t i o n a l p r o g r a m s and i n v o l v e m e n t o f v i l l a g e members f r o m t h e i n c e p t i o n o f s u c h p r o j e c t s may y i e l d some p o s i t i v e r e s u l t s . E f f e c t i v e f a m i l y p l a n n i n g i s a f u r t h e r s t e p w h i c h s h o u l d be taken\" t o h e l p a l l e v i a t e t h e p r o b l e m o f e n e r g y s u p p l y s h o r t a g e s . T h i s w i l l n e c e s s i t a t e a c o m b i n a t i o n o f e d u c a t i o n a l p r o g r a m s , e x t e n s i o n o f f a m i l y p l a n n i n g s e r v i c e s i n t h e v i l l a g e s , and t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f i n e x p e n s i v e o r f r e e c o n t r a c e p t i v e s . I n A s i a n c o u n t r i e s where s u c h e f f o r t s have been s u c c e s s f u l , p r o v i s i o n o f i n f o r m a t i o n , e d u c a t i o n a l c a m p a i g n s , t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t e c h n i q u e s f o r g a i n i n g l o c a l community s u p p o r t , e n d o r s e m e n t o f v i l l a g e l e a d e r s , and t h e employment o f v i l l a g e r s t h e m s e l v e s t o s t a f f c o n t r a c e p t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n c e n t r e s have been i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s ( W o r l d Bank, 1981b:113). 258 Conservation of t r a d i t i o n a l fuels i s probably the best medium-term measure. Many of the stoves used to burn t r a d i t i o n a l fuels such as firewood or charcoal waste about ninety percent of their heat, and require approximately fiv e times the amount of energy as kerosene stoves. Several sources indicate that improved stove designs could double the useful energy obtained (Dunkerley et a l . , 1981b; World Bank, 1981b; Morgan, 1983). However, for such unfamiliar designs to be accepted, they should provide both the energy and non-energy services obtained through the use. of existing open-fire stoves. For example, aside from the technical appropriateness of such stoves, they should be suitable for both indoor and outdoor cooking requirements, and should hold the type of cooking uten s i l s currently used in v i l l a g e households. They should also permit the cooking of more than one dish at a time, and must cook the food quickly. 6.5 C o n c l u s i o n Evidence obtained in t h i s study consistently shows that energy technologies and resources are tool used to s a t i s f y needs in a s o c i a l context. Yet, energy planners assess energy technologies in i s o l a t i o n from the society's values and basic human needs. As a re s u l t , a given technology's i n a b i l i t y to gain acceptance by i t s intended users i s too often attributed to \" c u l t u r a l r i g i d i t i e s \" rather than to i t s f a i l u r e to meet the people's needs and expectations. It i s interesting to note that s o c i a l concerns are given every consideration by professionals in i n d u s t r i a l i z e d 259 c o u n t r i e s . For example, p u b l i c s a f e t y c o n c e r n s s u r r o u n d i n g n u c l e a r energy s u p p l y systems command f a r more r e c o g n i t i o n than does t h e i r t e c h n i c a l and economic f e a s i b i l i t y . S i m i l a r l y , m a t t e r s of c l e a n l i n e s s and h e a l t h r i s k s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the b u r n i n g of c o a l a r e r e a l problems which a r e a d d r e s s e d i n the a n a l y s i s of i t s a b i l i t y t o s e r v e as an a l t e r n a t i v e energy o p t i o n f o r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . However, such s o c i a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s a r e g i v e n l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n by energy p l a n n e r s f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . I f a c c e p t a b l e a l t e r n a t e new energy s u p p l y systems a r e t o be d e v e l o p e d f o r N i g e r i a and d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i n g e n e r a l , energy a n a l y s t s s h o u l d r e c o g n i z e t h a t a l l q u e s t i o n s of s o c i a l c o n s t r a i n t s a r e a s p e c t s of key s o c i a l p r e f e r e n c e s , and t h a t t h e g o a l i s t o s a t i s f y t h o s e p r e f e r e n c e s . PART THREE CHAPTER 7 POLICY AND PLANNING IMPLICATIONS: TOWARDS A NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY AND PROGRAM FOR NIGERIA 7.1_ Summary The p r i m a r y purpose of t h i s s tudy i s assessment of the e x t e n t t o which q u a l i t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h commonly proposed new energy systems f o r domestic purposes s a t i s f y the needs and p r e f e r e n c e s of h ouseholds i n N i g e r i a . The f i n d i n g s and recommendations of the study a r e g e n e r a l i z e d f o r a p p l i c a t i o n t o o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . The need f o r t h i s s t u d y i s d e t e r m i n e d t h r o u g h r e v i e w of e x i s t i n g l i t e r a t u r e c o n c e r n i n g energy s u p p l y problems and a l t e r n a t e energy p o l i c y p r e s c r i p t i o n s f o r the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d i n g e n e r a l , and f o r N i g e r i a i n p a r t i c u l a r . The l i t e r a t u r e r e v e a l s t h a t energy problems i n N i g e r i a m i r r o r t h o s e of o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . The f i r s t i s the growing d o m e s t i c dependence on nonrewable p e t r o l e u m - b a s e d energy r e s o u r c e s , w i t h v a r y i n g consequences f o r d i f f e r e n t groups of d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . For n e t - o i l i m p o r t i n g c o u n t r i e s , i n c r e a s e d domestic consumption has r e s u l t e d i n s e v e r e monetary problems c h a r a c t e r i z e d by b a l a n c e of payment d e f i c i t s , i n a b i l i t y t o meet payments f o r f o r e i g n l o a n s , and d r a s t i c r e d u c t i o n s i n the l e v e l of c a p i t a l a c c u m u l a t i o n and the r a t e of economic development. These d i f f i c u l t i e s a r e e x a c e r b a t e d by w o r ldwide economic r e c e s s i o n and a s i m u l t a n e o u s d e c l i n e i n t h e demand f o r t h e s e c o u n t r i e s ' raw m a t e r i a l s by the i n d u s t r i a l i z e d w o r l d . L i m i t e d 260 261 domestic s u p p l i e s of o t h e r n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s i n c l u d i n g n a t u r a l gas, hydro and c o a l , as w e l l as the u n a v a i l a b i l i t y of f i n a n c i a l c a p i t a l f o r t h e i r development and d i s t r i b u t i o n makes m a t t e r s worse. In net o i l e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s such as N i g e r i a f o r e i g n exchange e a r n i n g s a r e t i e d t o o i l e x p o r t s , and growing domestic demands f o r p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s can be met o n l y t h r o u g h a more r a p i d d e p l e t i o n of t h e i r f i n i t e p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s . S h o u l d domestic demand exceed i n t e r n a l s u p p l i e s , the c o u n t r y may e a s i l y be t r a n s f o r m e d from a net e x p o r t e r t o net i m p o r t e r of p e t r o l e u m . At the same t i m e , slow economic growth and energy c o n s e r v a t i o n measures i n the d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s , combined w i t h the c u r r e n t w o r l d o i l g l u t , have s u b s t a n t i a l l y d e c r e a s e d the l e v e l of o i l e x p o r t s by most net o i l e x p o r t i n g d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y OPEC members. T h i s , i n t u r n , has g e n e r a t e d a monetary c r i s i s i n s e v e r a l of t h e s e c o u n t r i e s , i n c l u d i n g N i g e r i a , and has caused a s h o r t a g e of c a p i t a l needed f o r e x p a n s i o n of t h e i r o i l r e s o u r c e base t h r o u g h e x p l o r a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s , and f o r t h e p r o v i s i o n of a l t e r n a t e energy s u p p l i e s from o t h e r n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s o u r c e s . The second d i m e n s i o n of the energy c r i s i s i n N i g e r i a , as i n most d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , r e l a t e s t o the r a p i d d e p l e t i o n of domestic fuelwood r e s o u r c e s . T h i s i s caused by a v a r i e t y of f a c t o r s i n c l u d i n g p o p u l a t i o n p r e s s u r e s , c l i m a t i c c o n d i t i o n s , poor f o r e s t and l a n d use p r a c t i c e s , and i n c r e a s i n g d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n of many p a r t s of the c o u n t r y . A t h i r d r e l a t e d energy problem i s t h e l a c k of p u b l i c a c c e p t a n c e of the commonly proposed new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r use i n p l a c e of p e t r o l e u m -based energy p r o d u c t s and fuelwood used i n i t s p r e s e n t form. 262 In the h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r s o l a r c o o k e r s , b i o g a s and improved wood s t o v e s a r e among the most commonly proposed t e c h n o l o g i c a l changes t o energy s u p p l y sytems i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d . Both s o l a r c o o k e r s and b i o g a s a r e t e c h n o l g i c a l l y and e c o n o m i c a l l y f e a s i b l e , and b o t h i n v o l v e the use of cheap, renewable and v e r s a t i l e energy s o u r c e s which have the p o t e n t i a l t o p r o v i d e s u s t a i n a b l e , e c o l o g i c a l l y modest, d e c e n t r a l i z e d energy s u p p l y systems u s i n g i n t e r m e d i a t e t e c h n o l o g i e s . Y e t , t h e s e a l t e r n a t i v e s have proven t o be u n a c c e p t a b l e t o h ouseholds w i t h i n N i g e r i a and the d e v e l o p i n g - w o r l d i n g e n e r a l . I t i s t h i s s i t u a t i o n which prompts the r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n , \"Are the q u a l i t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the commonly proposed a l t e r n a t e energy t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r d o m e s t i c use i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d t h o s e on which e x i s t i n g c h o i c e s and p r e f e r e n c e s f o r f u e l t y p e s by h o u s e h o l d s a r e based?\" The r e s e a r c h g o a l i s a c c o m p l i s h e d t h r o u g h i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the f a c t o r s on which N i g e r i a n h ouseholds base e x i s t i n g f u e l c h o i c e s . These f i n d i n g s a r e then g e n e r a l i z e d t o o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . Samples of N i g e r i a n h o u s e h o l d s w i t h i n v a r i o u s income and h o u s e h o l d s i z e c a t e g o r i e s a r e s e l e c t e d from each of an urban c e n t r e , a r u r a l town and v i l l a g e s e t t i n g s of n o r t h e r n N i g e r i a , as w e l l as of s o u t h e a s t e r n p a r t s of the c o u n t r y . Both d i r e c t o b s e r v a t i o n and i n t e r v i e w q u e s t i o n n a i r e s a r e employed t o c o l l e c t d a t a c o n c e r n i n g the f r e q u e n c y of use of c e r t a i n f u e l t y p e s f o r meeting h o u s e h o l d energy needs, and r e a s o n s f o r c h o o s i n g some f u e l s more f r e q u e n t l y than o t h e r s . I n f o r m a t i o n i s a l s o g a t h e r e d t o show the f u e l t y p e s most p r e f e r r e d by h o u s e h o l d s i n p e r f o r m i n g each of the major 263 h o u s e h o l d t a s k s , i n c l u d i n g c o o k i n g , water h e a t i n g , f o o d p r e s e r v a t i o n , and home l i g h t i n g and the reasons why a g i v e n f u e l i s p r e f e r r e d . Respondents a r e a l s o asked t o i d e n t i f y the t y p e s of f u e l t h ey would l i k e t o have s u p p l i e d t o them, i n o r d e r of p r e f e r e n c e , as w e l l as the u n d e s i r a b l e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of f u e l s c u r r e n t l y used. The average monthly consumption of t r a d i t i o n a l and n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l t y p e s by h o u s e h o l d s , as w e l l as the average monthly monetary e x p e n d i t u r e on energy f o r domestic p u r p o s e s , i s e s t i m a t e d . For each s e t of t h e s e dependent v a r i a b l e s an a n a l y s i s of the r e l a t i o n s h i p t o the independent v a r i a b l e s of h o u s e h o l d income and h o u s e h o l d s i z e i s made. The s t u d y shows t h a t t h e r e a r e s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s i n the use of t r a d i t i o n a l and n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l t y p e s by l o c a t i o n , h o u s e h o l d income and h o u s e h o l d s i z e . In g e n e r a l , n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l t y p e s such as gas (LPG), k e r o s e n e , and e l e c t r i c i t y a r e used more f r e q u e n t l y by households i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns, and by h i g h e r income f a m i l i e s and s m a l l h o u s e h o l d s . T r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s , on the o t h e r hand, such as f i r e w o o d / c h a r c o a l , and s t r a w s a r e used*more f r e q u e n t l y by v i l l a g e h o u s e h o l d s and by lower income f a m i l i e s and l a r g e h o u s e h o l d s . The s t u d y a l s o shows t h a t the average t o t a l monthly energy consumption i s h i g h e s t i n urban c e n t r e s and d e c l i n e s as one moves t o r u r a l towns and v i l l a g e s . However, r e g a r d l e s s of l o c a t i o n , the average t o t a l monthly energy consumption by h o u s e h o l d r i s e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n r e l a t i o n t o h i g h e r income and l a r g e r h o u s e h o l d s i z e . F u r t h e r , r e s u l t s of the a n a l y s i s show t h a t urban growth, r e i n f o r c e d by r i s i n g income l e v e l s , l e a d s t o 264 i n c r e a s i n g dependence on n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s , w h i l e t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of energy p l a y a d e c l i n i n g r o l e i n t o t a l energy consumption by households f o r d o m e s t i c p u r p o s e s . These r e s u l t s l e a d t o the c o n c l u s i o n t h a t as income i n c r e a s e s , and as u r b a n i z a t i o n p o l i c i e s a r e p u r s u e d , consumption of t o t a l energy by households i n c r e a s e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y , p a r t i c u l a r l y consumption of n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy s o u r c e s . A n a l y s i s of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between t o t a l monthly f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e s on energy and a household's income or s i z e shows., s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s on the b a s i s of l o c a t i o n . In urban c e n t r e s t o t a l monthly f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e s on energy s u p p l i e s by h o u s e h o l d s f o r d o m e s t i c purposes i n c r e a s e s as the h o u s e h o l d ' s income and s i z e i n c r e a s e s . However, o n l y h o u s e h o l d s i z e i s s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t i n e x p l a i n i n g v a r i a t i o n s i n t o t a l monthly f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e s f o r energy s u p p l i e s . T h i s appears t o be due t o the f a c t t h a t h i g h e r income households i n urban c e n t r e s a r e a b l e t o a f f o r d the a p p l i a n c e s n e c e s s a r y f o r use of n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s , which a r e cheaper than t r a d i t i o n a l energy s o u r c e s such as f i r e w o o d and c h a r c o a l . In r u r a l towns, on t h e o t h e r hand, t o t a l monthly f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e s on energy by a h o u s e h o l d i n c r e a s e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y by h i g h e r income and g r e a t e r h o u s e h o l d s i z e . W h i l e h i g h e r income households i n r u r a l towns most f r e q u e n t l y use n o n t r a d i t i o n a l , p e t r o l e u m based energy p r o d u c t s the c o s t of t h e s e f u e l s i n r u r a l a r e a s i s much g r e a t e r than i n urban c e n t r e s because of low l e v e l s of s u p p l y and c o s t l y d i s t r i b u t i o n systems. In a d d i t i o n , t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of f u e l i n r u r a l a r e a s a r e cheaper because of the a v a i l a b i l i t y of s u r r o u n d i n g f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s . 265 In v i l l a g e s , t h e r e i s an i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t o t a l monthly f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e on energy s u p p l i e s and h o u s e h o l d s i z e . Most v i l l a g e h o useholds a r e dependent on t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of energy f o r c o o k i n g , water h e a t i n g , and fo o d p r e s e r v a t i o n , and can meet t h e i r s u p p l y needs d i r e c t l y from the s u r r o u n d i n g f o r e s t l a n d s . The l a r g e r the h o u s e h o l d , the g r e a t e r the l a b o r f o r c e which i s a v a i l a b l e t o c u t and t r a n s p o r t f i r e w o o d from nearby f o r e s t l a n d s , and the h o u s e h o l d i s l e s s l i k e l y t o meet most of i t s energy needs t h r o u g h p u r c h a s e s from the market p l a c e . These r e s u l t s l e a d the s t u d y t o suggest t h a t l o c a t i o n i s the most i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n e x p l a i n i n g v a r i a t i o n s i n t o t a l monthly f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e l e v e l s f o r energy s u p p l i e s by h o u s e h o l d s w i t h i n N i g e r i a . The s t u d y c l e a r l y and c o n s i s t e n t l y d emonstrates t h a t w h i l e a household's c h o i c e of f u e l t y p e s i s n a t u r a l l y i n f l u e n c e d by i t s income l e v e l and the a v a i l a b i l i t y of c e r t a i n f u e l s u p p l i e s ; t h e s e f a c t o r s a r e not the s o l e b a s i s of c h o i c e . A wide range of i n t r i n s i c f a c t o r s e n t e r i n t o the d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s . S a f e t y , e f f i c i e n c y , r e l i a b i l i t y of s u p p l y , c o n v e n i e n c e , v e r s a t i l i t y , and c l e a n l i n e s s a r e among the v a r i a b l e s t o be c o n s i d e r e d . T h i s i s the case not o n l y when c h o o s i n g between t r a d i t i o n a l and n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s , but a l s o when a household s e l e c t s a f u e l t y p e from among a wide a r r a y of t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of energy. For example, the s t u d y shows t h a t households choose t o use f i r e w o o d and c h a r c o a l r a t h e r than s t r a w , sawdust, or a n i m a l dung even though t h e l a t t e r a r e a v a i l a b l e t o them f r e e of c h a r g e . Moreover, even t h o s e h o u s e h o l d s who can a f f o r d t o use kerosene s t o v e s and t o whom the f u e l i s a v a i l a b l e , may use 266 i t f o r water h e a t i n g but not f o r c o o k i n g purposes because the s t o v e i s not c o n s i d e r e d s t u r d y enough f o r l a r g e c o o k i n g u t e n s i l s . S i m i l a r l y t hey do not use the kerosene s t o v e t o p r e s e r v e f o o d because the s m e l l permeates the d r i e d or smoked f o o d . A wide range of i n t r i n s i c f a c t o r s a l s o i n f l u e n c e the c h o i c e of f u e l t y p e s t h a t households would most l i k e t o have s u p p l i e d t o them. Moreover, the study r e v e a l s t h a t a l t h o u g h h o u s e h o l d s i n the v i l l a g e s c u r r e n t l y use u n s o p h i s t i c a t e d t r a d i t i o n a l energy t e c h n o l o g i e s , t h e i r a t t i t u d e s towards e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s a r e not d i f f e r e n t from those of households i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns. Indeed, almost a l l the r e s p o n d e n t s i n the urban c e n t r e s , r u r a l towns, and v i l l a g e s would p r e f e r t o use n o n t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of energy i n the performance of t h e i r d a i l y domestic c h o r e s . Among the n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy s o u r c e s i d e n t i f i e d , e l e c t r i c i t y i s the most p o p u l a r c h o i c e , f o l l o w e d by gas i n urban c e n t r e s and r u r a l towns, and by kerosene i n 1 v i l l a g e s . I n a d d i t i o n t o p o s s e s s i n g d e s i r e d a t t r i b u t e s , e l e c t r i c i t y i s s u i t a b l e f o r use i n p e r f o r m i n g a l l major domest i c t a s k s , i n c l u d i n g c o o k i n g , water h e a t i n g , f o o d p r e s e r v a t i o n , and home l i g h t i n g . I t i s c l e a r t h a t the o f t e n c i t e d v i r t u e s of new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s proposed f o r use i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d do not a d e q u a t e l y embrace the i n t r i n s i c q u a l i t i e s sought by N i g e r i a n h o u s e h o l d s . S o l a r c o o k e r s and b i o g a s f e a t u r e r e n e w a b i l i t y , e c o l o g i c a l modesty, i n t e r m e d i a t e t e c h n o l o g y , and the p o t e n t i a l f o r a d e c e n t r a l i z e d s u p p l y system, but t h e s e f a c t o r s a r e not among thos e g i v e n by households i n d e t e r m i n i n g t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e s f o r v a r i o u s f u e l t y p e s . M a t t e r s of s a f e t y , r e l i a b i l i t y of 267 s u p p l y , c o n v e n i e n c e of use, and c l e a n l i n e s s a r e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s w h ich must be a d d r e s s e d when p r o p o s i n g energy a l t e r n a t i v e s . S o l a r c o o k e r s , f o r example, u t i l i z e a cheap source of energy and i n v o l v e low investment c o s t s , but they a r e a b l e t o cook j u s t one t h i n g a t a t i m e , can be used o n l y i n t h e heat of the day, must be used o u t d o o r s , and f o r c e u s e r s t o seek ways t o a v o i d the g l a r e of the sun. S i m i l a r l y , b i o g a s r e q u i r e s cheap i n p u t s of a n i m a l dung and human waste, but i t s c o l l e c t i o n i s an u n p l e a s a n t t a s k and i t s usage i s p e r c e i v e d as u n s a n i t a r y . B i o g a s produces an unpleasant, odor and may be dangerous t o use, s i n c e methane i s e x p l o s i v e when mixed w i t h a i r i n p r o p o r t i o n s of f i v e t o f i f t e e n p e r c e n t by volume. These f i n d i n g s l e a d the s t u d y t o c o n c l u d e t h a t i t i s t h i s f a i l u r e t o i n c o r p o r a t e d e s i r e d i n t r i n s i c q u a l i t i e s of c u r r e n t f u e l c h o i c e s i n t o proposed energy s u p p l y a l t e r n a t i v e s which i s the g r e a t e s t o b s t a c l e t o t h e i r a d o p t i o n by i n t e n d e d u s e r s . For new energy systems t o be a t t r a c t i v e t o N i g e r i a n h o u s e h o l d s , they must p o s s e s s the d e s i r a b l e q u a l i t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e x i s t i n g f u e l t y p e s , and perhaps more. Such has been: the' b a s i s - f o r the a t t r a c t i v e n e s s of e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l t y p e s as compared t o t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of energy. H a v i n g d e t e r m i n e d t h a t the q u a l i t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h commonly proposed new energy systems f o r domestic purposes do not a d e q u a t e l y s a t i s f y the needs and p r e f e r e n c e s of households i n N i g e r i a , changes t o the d e s i g n and development of a l t e r n a t e new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s a r e s u g g e s t e d , as a means of a l i g n i n g such a l t e r n a t i v e s w i t h u s e r needs and p r e f e r e n c e s . T h i s t h e s i s p r o p o s e s a n e e d - d r i v e n approach t o the s u p p l y of new energy a l t e r n a t i v e s f o r the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d , whereby energy needs and p r e f e r e n c e s a r e d e t e r m i n e d from the l o c a l p o i n t of view, 268 f o l l o w e d by i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of new energy s u p p l y systems which on t e c h n i c a l grounds w i l l meet t h o s e needs and e x p e c t a t i o n s , w h i l e a d d r e s s i n g the i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n s of r e n e w a b i l i t y and e c o l o g i c a l s a f e t y . The q u e s t i o n of a f f o r d a b i l i t y must then be a d d r e s s e d . Where n e c e s s a r y and j u s t i f i a b l e , government s u b s i d i e s may be i n t r o d u c e d as o t h e r means ar e sought t o lower the c o s t t o the consumer. G i v e n t h a t c o n t i n u e d i n c r e a s e d r e l i a n c e on p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s w i l l have s e r i o u s and f a r -r e a c h i n g consequences f o r t h e s e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , and t h a t f u r t h e r d e p l e t i o n . o f f o r e s t s w i l l r e s u l t i n d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n and l o s s of a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i v i t y , j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r government s u b s i d i e s s h o u l d not be d i f f i c u l t t o f i n d , p a r t i c u l a r l y where government i s a l r e a d y s u b s i d i z i n g the l o c a l p r i c e s of p e t r o l e u m -based energy p r o d u c t s and e l e c t r i c i t y . 7.1.1 O v e r a l l P o l i c y And P l a n n i n g I m p l i c a t i o n s A n a l y s i s of energy consumption p a t t e r n s and p r e f e r e n c e s f o r v a r i o u s e x i s t i n g f u e l t y p e s by h ouseholds w i t h i n N i g e r i a r e v e a l s the p o t e n t i a l f o r g r e a t dependence by the domestic s e c t o r on n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy r e s o u r c e s , which a r e p e t r o l e u m based. Coupled w i t h the c o u n t r y ' s i n d u s t r i a l and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r s complete r e l i a n c e on t h e s e s o u r c e s of energy, such i n c r e a s e d domestic demand w i l l worsen the e x i s t i n g power s u p p l y s h o r t a g e problems and l e a d t o the r a p i d d e p l e t i o n of o i l r e s e r v e s . The c o u n t r y ' s f o r e i g n exchange e a r n i n g s w i l l t h e r e b y be s e r i o u s l y t h r e a t e n e d . P r i o r t o the c u r r e n t o i l g l u t i n the g l o b a l market and the subsequent downward s l i d e i n the p r i c e of p e t r o l e u m , N i g e r i a 269 d e r i v e d s u b s t a n t i a l revenues from i t s o i l e x p o r t s , and the c a p i t a l r e q u i r e d f o r development a c t i v i t i e s was a v a i l a b l e from w i t h i n the c o u n t r y . N o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy s u p p l y sytems were expanded, and o i l e x p l o r a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s were c a r r i e d o u t . At the same t i m e , p r o f i t m o t i v e s induced f o r e i g n o i l companies t o expand e x p l o r a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s f o r o i l and n a t u r a l gas, a t l i t t l e c o s t t o the N i g e r i a n government. Today, however, N i g e r i a f a c e s l a r g e t r a d e d e f i c i t s and i s e x p e r i e n c i n g d i f f i c u l t i e s i n meeting i t s f i n a n c i a l o b l i g a t i o n s t o e x t e r n a l l e n d i n g a g e n c i e s . The pace of o i l and n a t u r a l gas e x p l o r a t i o n has slowed d r a m a t i c a l l y , and the c o u n t r y i s u n l i k e l y t o be a b l e t o expand e x i s t i n g power s u p p l y f a c i l i t i e s and d i s t r i b u t i o n networks f o r p e t r o l e u m energy p r o d u c t s i n response t o expanding domestic needs. Energy use p a t t e r n s of r u r a l and urban N i g e r i a n h o u s e h o l d s p r o v i d e t h e b a s i s f o r d e t e r m i n i n g p o l i c y measures which w i l l h e l p t o r e v e r s e t h e c o u n t r y ' s growing t r e n d towards dependence on nonrenewable n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s . The m a j o r i t y of r u r a l r e s i d e n t s today s t i l l r e l y a lmost e x c l u s i v e l y on t r a d i t i o n a l , renewable energy s o u r c e s which a r e f o r e s t - b a s e d ; and so l o n g as th e s e s o u r c e s a r e adapted t o the p e o p l e ' s c h a n g i n g l i f e s t y l e s and an environment a p p r o p r i a t e f o r t h e i r r e n e w a b i l i t y m a i n t a i n e d , r e l i a n c e on f i n i t e p e t r o l e u m energy r e s o u r c e s may be m i n i m i z e d . For example, e t h a n o l a l c o h o l , which has a heat v a l u e e q u i v a l e n t t o t h a t of kerosene, can be produced l o c a l l y from renewable f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s and a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t s . I t can be used i n s t o v e s which a r e more e f f i c i e n t than t h o s e c u r r e n t l y used t o burn f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s i n t h e i r p r e s e n t form, and f e a t u r e s the d e s i r e d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of c l e a n l i n e s s , e f f i c i e n c y , 270 and c o n v e n i e n c e . Whether or not the p r o v i s i o n of such a l t e r n a t e t e c h n o l o g i e s can occur q u i c k l y enough and on a s c a l e which i s l a r g e enough t o make an impact on growing demands f o r n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s which a r e p e t r o l e u m based, i s more a matter of economics and p o l i t i c s than one of t e c h n o l o g y . The c o n v e r s i o n of biomass i n t o forms of e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s such as l i q u i d gas and e l e c t r i c i t y , f o r example, i s r e l a t i v e l y s i m p l e from a t e c h n o l o g i c a l v i e w p o i n t . However, the c o s t t o consumers r e l a t i v e t o t h a t of u s i n g e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s such as kerosene or gas may. be p r o h i b i t i v e because of government s u b s i d i e s which keep the p r i c e of t h e s e p e t r o l e u m based f u e l s l o w e r . F u r t h e r m o r e , because the system of s u b s i d i e s was e s t a b l i s h e d i n response t o p o l i t i c a l p r e s s u r e s t o r e l i e v e p o v e r t y , i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t the s u b s i d y program w i l l be d i s m a n t l e d u n l e s s a l t e r n a t e energy s u p p l i e s a r e b e i n g p r o v i d e d on a l a r g e s c a l e and a t a f f o r d a b l e c o s t s t o the consumers. I t appears t h a t the o n l y p r o b a b l e o p t i o n i s t o m a i n t a i n the e x i s t i n g l e v e l s of s u b s i d y f o r e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l t y p e s w h i l e p r o v i d i n g an even h i g h e r l e v e l s u b s i d y f o r new energy s u p p l y o p t i o n s u n t i l such time as the l a t t e r a r e b e i n g p r o v i d e d on a l a r g e enough s c a l e t o s a t i s f y d omestic demand. Immediate s t e p s may be taken t o de t e r m i n e p u b l i c a c c e p t a n c e of energy a l t e r n a t i v e s and t o e v a l u a t e the performance of such t e c h n o l o g i e s . O p t i m a l s i t e s and s c a l e s of p r o d u c t i o n may a l s o be d e t e r m i n e d , so t h a t t h e s e a l t e r n a t i v e new energy s u p p l i e s can be made c o m p e t i t i v e w i t h e x i s t i n g f u e l s o u r c e s such as pet r o l e u m - b a s e d p r o d u c t s as soon as p o s s i b l e . Demands f o r even s p a t i a l development and the d i f f u s i o n of m o d e r n i z a t i o n have caused u r b a n i z a t i o n t o be an i m p o r t a n t 271 component of N i g e r i a n development p l a n s . Even s p a t i a l development i n v o l v e s the d i s t r i b u t i o n of economic o p p o r t u n i t i e s among r e g i o n s i n such a way t h a t r e g i o n a l i n e q u a l i t i e s a r e c o r r e c t e d . For example, r e c e n t i n c r e a s e s i n the number of s t a t e s and l o c a l government a r e a s a r e a t t e m p t s by the N i g e r i a n government t o a c h i e v e even development t h r o u g h the c r e a t i o n of urban c e n t r e s or nodes from which modern t e c h n o l o g i e s d i f f u s e t o p e r i p h e r a l a r e a s . T h i s g o a l of even s p a t i a l development has r e s u l t e d i n i n c r e a s e d u r b a n i z a t i o n , and has s e r i o u s i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r N i g e r i a ' s , energy p i c t u r e . As t h i s s tudy d e m o n s t r a t e s , u r b a n i z a t i o n c r e a t e s an environment which f a c i l i t a t e s i n c r e a s e d dependence on n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s by h o u s e h o l d s , as u r b a n i z a t i o n i s u s u a l l y accompanied by the s p a t i a l d i f f u s i o n of n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy s u p p l y systems and the growth of r e t a i l o u t l e t s engaged i n t h e s a l e of a p p l i a n c e s r e q u i r i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy s u p p l i e s . L o c a l p e o p l e a r e exposed t o new l i f e s t y l e s , and i n c r e a s e d economic a c t i v i t y i n urban c e n t r e s u s u a l l y e n a b l e s h o u s e h o l d s t o earn an income s u i t a b l e f o r the a d o p t i o n of' energy use p r a c t i c e s based on t h e e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l t y p e s . Coupled w i t h i n c r e a s e d l e v e l s of i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n and e x p a n s i o n of the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r as u r b a n i z a t i o n t a k e s p l a c e , h o u s e h o l d s ' i n c r e a s e d r e l i a n c e on p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s poses s e r i o u s problems. To d a t e , N i g e r i a n energy development p o l i c i e s a r e pursued i n i s o l a t i o n from o t h e r s e c t o r a l development p l a n s i n v o l v i n g f o r e s t r y , a g r i c u l t u r e , i n d u s t r y , and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n w i t h l i t t l e or no a n a l y s i s of the i n t e r a c t i o n between the v a r i o u s s e c t o r s . For example, i n d u s t r i e s a r e e s t a b l i s h e d w i t h o u t r e g a r d f o r the f o r e s t l a n d s which a r e b e i n g d i s p l a c e d , and urban i n f r a s t r u c t u r e 272 based on c o n v e n t i o n a l f u e l t y p e s a r e b u i l t w i t h o u t c o n s i d e r a t i o n of f u t u r e development of a l t e r n a t i v e new energy systems. S i m i l a r l y , most f o r e s t r e g e n e r a t i o n programs a r e aimed a t the su p p l y of commercial t r e e s p e c i e s even though the demand f o r fuelwood i s the more p r e s s i n g i s s u e . To guard a g a i n s t such p u r s u i t of c o n f l i c t i n g g o a l s , energy p o l i c i e s need t o be made an i n t e g r a l p a r t of a l l n a t i o n a l development p l a n s . 7.2 Energy P o l i c y O p t i o n s F o r N i g e r i a N i g e r i a i s endowed w i t h d i v e r s e energy r e s o u r c e s , b o t h t r a d i t i o n a l and n o n t r a d i t i o n a l . Y e t , f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s , a t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e of energy, s u f f e r from b o t h o v e r - e x p l o i t a t i o n and w a s t e f u l consumption p r a c t i c e s w h i l e they c o n t i n u e t o be u n d e r - u t i l i z e d . P e t roleum-based energy r e s o u r c e s a r e o v e r -e x p l o i t e d and consumed w a s t e f u l l y , w h i l e c o a l , h y d r o , s o l a r , and wind power a r e under- d e v e l o p e d and u n d e r - u t i l i z e d s o u r c e s of energy. These problems suggest the need f o r an i n t e g r a t e d approach t o energy p o l i c i e s i n N i g e r i a , c o n s i s t i n g of i n t e r r e l a t e d programs r a n g i n g from the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of u n i f i e d i n s t i t u t i o n a l a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s t r u c t u r e s t o the d e s i g n of combined energy r e s o u r c e s s u p p l y systems n e c e s s a r y t o ensure t h a t maximum advantage i s d e r i v e d from a l l i n d i g e n o u s energy r e s o u r c e s . In a d d i t i o n , d o m e s t i c energy p o l i c i e s need t o be made an i n t e g r a l p a r t of a l l n a t i o n a l development p l a n s f o r the c o u n t r y . Other problems c u r r e n t l y c o m p l i c a t i n g N i g e r i a ' s energy problems i n c l u d e the l a c k of d a t a from which t o c o n s t r u c t an a c c u r a t e p i c t u r e of the c o u n t r y ' s t o t a l energy s u p p l y and use s i t u a t i o n . Data t h a t do e x i s t a r e p r i m a r i l y c o n c erned w i t h 273 n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy r e s o u r c e s , and a r e s c a t t e r e d a c r o s s the c o u n t r y i n f i l e s of v a r i o u s c o r p o r a t i o n s and commissions which ar e not e a s i l y a c c e s s i b l e . Moreover, e x p l o r a t i o n and development of a l t e r n a t e new s o u r c e s of energy i s l e f t l a r g e l y t o chance. Even though s o l a r , wind, and b i o f u e l r e s o u r c e s form a r e a l b a s i s f o r e n s u r i n g a s u s t a i n a b l e energy r e s o u r c e s u p p l y , they a r e not r e p r e s e n t e d i n the e x i s t i n g m y r i a d of energy commissions and c o r p o r a t i o n s t hroughout N i g e r i a . As a r e s u l t , the p o t e n t i a l c o n t r i b u t i o n s of new energy r e s o u r c e s t o the c o u n t r y ' s energy s u p p l y needs a r e not tapped. A l t h o u g h t h e r e a r e v a r i o u s i n d i v i d u a l s and b o d i e s c u r r e n t l y engaged i n a l t e r n a t e new energy r e s o u r c e s r e s e a r c h a c t i v i t i e s , t h ey a r e not l i n k e d t o each o t h e r t h r o u g h a c e n t r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i v e agency l o c a t e d i n the p u b l i c s e c t o r . T h i s r e s u l t s i n the d u p l i c a t i o n of r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s , and f o r a n a t i o n f a c e d w i t h s h o r t a g e s of s k i l l e d manpower t h i s i s a g r e a t waste. 7.2.1 A d m i n i s t r a t i v e Framework The need f o r u n i f i e d energy management and an o r g a n i z e d system of i n s t i t u t i o n s i s i d e n t i f i e d by G a l t i m a r i (1978:15) when he s t a t e s , The need f o r a n a t i o n a l energy p o l i c y f o r N i g e r i a has been i d e n t i f i e d and t h e r e i s g e n e r a l agreement amongst p r a c t i t i o n e r s i n the f i e l d t h a t such a p o l i c y i s r e q u i r e d i n the p r o c e s s of n a t i o n a l development. ... The most f o r m i d a b l e problems a t p r e s e n t a r e l a c k of r e l i a b l e energy s t a t i s t i c s and a l s o l a c k of c o o r d i n a t i o n of the v a r i o u s c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o knowledge i n t h e energy f i e l d . Only a c e n t r a l o r g a n i s a t i o n a p p r o p r i a t e l y l o c a t e d i n the p u b l i c s e c t o r can h e l p pave the way f o r e a r l y e v o l u t i o n of a n a t i o n a l energy p o l i c y . S i n c e energy i s a c r u c i a l a s p e c t of the development and maintenance of the n a t i o n ' s s o c i a l and economic a c t i v i t i e s i t i s 274 i m p e r a t i v e t h a t a p p r o p r i a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l arrangements be s e t up t o c o - o r d i n a t e and o versee a l l of the c o u n t r y ' s e n e r g y - r e l a t e d a c t i v i t i e s , i n c l u d i n g energy c o n s e r v a t i o n and a l t e r n a t e new energy r e s o u r c e s o p t i o n s . These a d m i n i s t r a t i v e i n s t i t u t i o n s would, i n g e n e r a l , s u p p o r t and f a c i l i t a t e r e s e a r c h , p l a n n i n g , r e c o r d - k e e p i n g , the p r o v i s i o n and u p g r a d i n g of energy r e s o u r c e i n v e n t o r i e s , and the p u b l i c a t i o n of energy r e l a t e d i n f o r m a t i o n . Most i m p o r t a n t l y , t h e y would s e r v e as i n s t r u m e n t s f o r the d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n of energy s u p p l i e s i n the c o u n t r y and work towards the l o n g - t e r m g o a l of energy s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y . The i n s t i t u t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e s r e q u i r e d i n c l u d e a n a t i o n a l energy commission whose r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s s h o u l d i n c l u d e the p r o v i s i o n of i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g t h e c o u n t r y ' s energy r e s o u r c e s , p r o d u c t i o n , and use on an a n n u a l b a s i s ; the a n a l y s i s and p r o v i s i o n of i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s between major s e c t o r s of the economy and the energy s e c t o r , and i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of energy r e q u i r e m e n t s and s u p p l i e s on a s h o r t , medium, and l o n g - t e r m b a s i s . The Commission s h o u l d s e r v e as an i n s t r u m e n t f o r p l a n n i n g i n the a r e a of t r a d i t i o n a l , e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l and a l t e r n a t e new s o u r c e s of energy, and f o r the i n i t i a t i o n of r e s e a r c h a c t i v i t i e s r e l a t e d t o the c o u n t r y ' s energy systems. In a d d i t i o n t o the N a t i o n a l Energy Commission, an Energy C o n s e r v a t i o n U n i t and the A l t e r n a t e New Energy R e s o u r c e s U n i t need t o be c r e a t e d . As i t s name s u g g e s t s , the former U n i t would be c o n cerned w i t h a c t i v i t i e s r e l a t e d t o e n h a n c i n g the e f f i c i e n c y of energy use a c r o s s a l l s e c t o r s of the economy, and p r o v i d e a phased f u e l - s a v i n g program f o r each s e c t o r . T h i s u n i t would e v a l u a t e the a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s of energy 275 c o n s e r v a t i o n p o l i c i e s and i n c e n t i v e s w i t h i n the N i g e r i a n c o n t e x t , and p r o v i d e a d v i s o r y s e r v i c e s t o the government c o n c e r n i n g t h e s e m a t t e r s . The Energy C o n s e r v a t i o n U n i t would p r o v i d e e d u c a t i o n and t r a i n i n g i n the a r e a of energy c o n s e r v a t i o n methods and would s u p p o r t r e s e a r c h i n t o f u r t h e r development of such t e c h n i q u e s . The A l t e r n a t e New Energy Resources U n i t would f o c u s on renewable energy r e s o u r c e s , and on the development and promotion of energy c o n v e r s i o n systems which t r a n s f o r m biomass r e s o u r c e s i n t o l i q u i d f u e l s and e l e c t r i c i t y , and which u t i l i z e s o l a r , wind, and hydro r e s o u r c e s t o produce e l e c t r i c i t y . The u n i t would p r o v i d e and e v a l u a t e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g the performance of t h e s e a l t e r n a t i v e energy s u p p l y systems, t h e i r e n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p a c t s , and t h e i r s o c i a l a c c e p t a b i l i t y . The A l t e r n a t e New Energy Resources U n i t would d e t e r m i n e and p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g the b e s t s i t e s and o p t i m a l s c a l e of s u p p l y of new energy r e s o u r c e s u p p l i e s on a s h o r t , medium, and l o n g term b a s i s , under v a r y i n g c o n d i t i o n s i n v o l v i n g the r a t e of economic growth, changes i n t h e r e l a t i v e c o s t s of\" a v a i l a b l e energy o p t i o n s , and the c o m p e t i t i v e n e s s of c e r t a i n new energy s u p p l y t e c h n o l o g i e s . The U n i t would s e r v e as a c o - o r d i n a t i n g mechanism, g a t h e r i n g i n f o r m a t i o n from r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t s c o n c e r n i n g renewable energy t e c h n o l o g i e s b e i n g c a r r i e d out a t v a r i o u s i n s t i t u t i o n s a c r o s s the c o u n t r y , and e n s u r i n g t h a t d u p l i c a t i o n of e f f o r t s i s m i n i m i z e d . The U n i t would d e t e r m i n e the f o c u s of such r e s e a r c h , by e s t a b l i s h i n g p r i o r i t i e s i n an e f f o r t t o maximize the b e n e f i t s d e r i v e d from f i n a n c i a l and human r e s o u r c e s which a r e expended i n the s e a r c h f o r s u i t a b l e a l t e r n a t e new energy r e s o u r c e s o p t i o n s . 276 7.2.2 A l t e r n a t e New Energy R e s o u r c e s S u p p l y Systems In r e c e n t y e a r s energy from c o n v e n t i o n a l s o u r c e s has become n e i t h e r cheap nor abundant. Governments a r e t o be aware of the need t o promote a l t e r n a t e , new energy r e s o u r c e s s u p p l y t e c h n o l o g i e s based on renewable energy r e s o u r c e s i n o r d e r t o ensure m i n i m a l r e l i a n c e on f i n i t e s o u r c e s of energy. T h i s i s more l i k e l y t o be a c c o m p l i s h e d o n l y a f t e r the needs and p r e f e r e n c e s of the p e o p l e have been i d e n t i f i e d , and t e c h n o l o g y d e v e l o p e d t o meet tho s e needs and p r e f e r e n c e s . Based on the r e s u l t s of t h i s s t u d y , f o r example, p o l i c i e s concerning;, a l t e r n a t e new energy r e s o u r c e s u p p l i e s f o r the h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r may need t o f o c u s on p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r the c o n v e r s i o n of renewable energy s o u r c e s such as s o l a r , wind, and biomass r e s o u r c e s i n t o e l e c t r i c i t y . 7 . 2 . 2_.l S o l a r Energy N i g e r i a ' s l o c a t i o n i n the t r o p i c s o f f e r s l a r g e s o l a r energy r e s o u r c e p o t e n t i a l s . W i t h an a r e a of 983.213 x 10 6 M 2 N i g e r i a r e c e i v e s a l m o s t 16.7 x 1 0 1 5 KJ of s o l a r e n e r g y each c l e a r day. E s t i m a t e s i n d i c a t e t h a t i f o n l y one p e r c e n t of the l a n d a r e a were used f o r 180 c l e a r days i n the y e a r , and w i t h f i v e p e r c e n t c o n v e r s i o n e f f i c i e n c y , the e q u i v a l e n t of 15.0 x 1014 KJ of u s e f u l energy would be a v a i l a b l e t o the n a t i o n each y e a r . T h i s i s e q u i v a l e n t t o the s u p p l y of energy o b t a i n a b l e from t o t a l c u r r e n t n a t i o n a l f o s s i l f u e l p r o d u c t i o n ( E z e i l o , 1979:228). The t e c h n o l o g y f o r the c o n v e r s i o n of t h i s s o l a r energy i n t o e l e c t r i c i t y c u r r e n t l y e x i s t s . S o l a r r a d i a t i o n can be c o n v e r t e d i n t o e l e c t r i c i t y i n e s s e n t i a l l y two ways. A thermodynamic c o n v e r s i o n p r o c e s s i n v o l v i n g the use of s o l a r heat 277 c o l l e c t o r s and t u r b i n e s f o r c o n v e r t i n g s o l a r r a d i a t i o n i n t o e l e c t r i c i t y has been d e v e l o p e d , and p h o t o - v o l t a i c c e l l s can be used as t h e y c u r r e n t l y a r e on space c r a f t s . S o l a r c e l l s i n the p h o t o - v o l t a i c t e c h n o l o g y c o n v e r t s o l a r r a d i a t i o n d i r e c t l y i n t o e l e c t r i c i t y by a p u r e l y e l e c t r o n i c p r o c e s s employing no h e a t . A l t h o u g h the h i g h c o s t of energy from th e s e c o n v e r s i o n systems i s c u r r e n t l y the major o b s t a c l e t o t h e i r a d o p t i o n i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , t e c h n o l o g i c a l advancements i n t h i s f i e l d a r e b e i n g made i n the d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s , and c o s t s a r e b e i n g l o w e r e d . S i d d i q i and Hein (1979:182) note t h a t , ... the c o s t of g e n e r a t i n g one peak watt of e l e c t r i c i t y from p h o t o v o l t a i c c e l l s has dropped from over $200 a few y e a r s ago, t o about $25-$30 toda y , and i t i s the o f f i c i a l g o a l of the U n i t e d S t a t e s government t o b r i n g t h i s p r i c e down t o about $1 per peak watt w i t h i n the next decade. D e s p i t e t h e c u r r e n t h i g h c o s t of energy from s o l a r power systems, i t i s p r o b a b l y prudent f o r N i g e r i a t o become i n v o l v e d i n r e s e a r c h and development a c t i v i t i e s i n t h i s f i e l d , t h r o u g h a s s i s t a n c e programs o f f e r e d by b i l a t e r a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s such as the U.S. Agency f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development, or the Swedish I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development Agency. By so d o i n g , N i g e r i a can have a p o o l of knowledge and e x p e r t i s e i n p r e p a r a t i o n f o r the time when s o l a r power c o n v e r s i o n systems become e c o n o m i c a l l y v i a b l e . 7. 2. 2.2 Wind Power The t e c h n o l o g y f o r wind power g e n e r a t i o n i s o l d , and has been used s u c c e s s f u l l y by European f a r m e r s and m i s s i o n a r i e s i n v a r i o u s p a r t s of A f r i c a . In N o r t h America t h e use of w i n d m i l l s f o r e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n was p o p u l a r i n r u r a l a r e a s d u r i n g the f i r s t h a l f of t h i s c e n t u r y . There a r e two t y p e s of wind power 278 t e c h n o l o g y ; t h o s e h a v i n g a h o r i z o n t a l a x i s ( c o n v e n t i o n a l w i n d m i l l s ) and t h o s e h a v i n g a v e r t i c a l a x i s . The advantage of v e r t i c a l a x i s wind t u r b i n e s i s t h a t they can be powered by wind b l o w i n g from any d i r e c t i o n . The use of wind power f o r e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n i s c u r r e n t l y e c o n o m i c a l l y f e a s i b l e . I t s development f o r d o m e s t i c use i n N i g e r i a , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n r u r a l a r e a s , s h o u l d r e c e i v e s e r i o u s c o n s i d e r a t i o n . A l t h o u g h the i n t e r m i t t e n t n a t u r e of wind power s u p p l i e s does pose a problem, such systems c o u l d be i n v e s t i g a t e d and used t o s e r v e a complementary f u n c t i o n i n s m a l l - s c a l e h y d r o e l e c t r i c power schemes or w o o d - f i r e d power s t a t i o n s . 7_.2_.2_.3_ Biomass The use of energy f i x e d i n o r g a n i c m a t t e r by the p r o c e s s of p h o t o s y n t h e s i s has t r a d i t i o n a l l y f o c u s e d on the d i r e c t c ombustion of biomass energy s o u r c e s . However, i n r e c e n t y e a r s t h e r e has been i n c r e a s i n g i n t e r e s t i n the more e f f i c i e n t u t i l i z a t i o n of biomass energy t h r o u g h c o n v e r s i o n of the biomass res o u r c e s - t o s y n t h e t i c f u e l s and e l e c t r i c i t y , which have h i g h e r energy c o n t e n t and which r e p r e s e n t more a c c e p t a b l e forms of energy f o r use i n p l a c e of e x i s t i n g energy p r o d u c t s such as t h o s e which a r e nonrenewable and p e t r o l e u m based. There a r e a wide range of biomass energy c o n v e r s i o n t e c h n o l o g i e s which s h o u l d be i n v e s t i g a t e d f u r t h e r , i n the n a t i o n a l energy development programs and energy s u p p l y systems i n N i g e r i a . Some of t h e s e c o n v e r s i o n p r o c e s s e s a r e summarized i n T a b l e 7.1. The e v i d e n c e shows t h a t the c o s t of biomass energy p r o d u c t s under most f a v o u r a b l e energy market s i t u a t i o n s compares w e l l w i t h the 279 TABLE 7.1 BIOMASS ENERGY CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES RESOURCES SYSTEM PRODUCT POWER CONVERSION/ OTHER USERS Dry Biomass (e.g. wood r e s i d u e s ) Bed B u r n e r s S uspension B u r n e r s C y c l o n e B u r n e r s F l u i d Bed Bu r n e r s R e a c t o r -G a s i f i e r s P y r o l y s i s R e a c t o r s H y d r o l y s i s D i s t i l l a t i o n Steam Steam Hot Gas Hot Gas Combustion Char, O i l or Gas E t h a n o l Steam T u r b i n e s Steam T u r b i n e s Steam T u r b i n e s Gas T u r b i n e s Steam T u r b i n e s Gas T u r b i n e s I n t e r n a l Combustion G e n e r a t o r s Steam or Gas T u r b i n e s T r a n s p o r t F u e l T r a n s p o r t F u e l C ooking F u e l 280 c o s t of p r o d u c t s produced from e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy r e s o u r c e s , as demonstrated i n T a b l e 7.2. W i t h the i n c r e a s i n g d e p l e t i o n of hydro-carbon energy r e s o u r c e s , i t i s i m p o r t a n t t o r e c o g n i z e t h a t abundant amounts of c l e a n , c o n v e n i e n t , and easy t o use energy r e s o u r c e s u b s t i t u t e s may be d e r i v e d from renewable biomass energy r e s o u r c e s . However, biomass c o n v e r s i o n must be accompanied by e f f i c i e n t f o r e s t management and r e f o r e s t a t i o n programs, i n c l u d i n g s i l v i c u l t u r a l a c t i v i t i e s . I n t e n s i v e h a r v e s t i n g of biomass from f o r e s t l a n d s and p l a n t a t i o n s can l e a d t o the removal of above ground woody p l a n t s , t h e r e b y c a u s i n g s o i l impoverishment and r e d u c i n g f o r e s t p r o d u c t i v i t y . F o r e s t h a r v e s t i n g f o r the purpose of o b t a i n i n g biomass t o be c o n v e r t e d might be r e s t r i c t e d t o stem woods and bra n c h e s , w h i l e the b u l k of biomass used i s c o l l e c t e d from commercial f o r e s t i n d u s t r i e s , i n t he form of low q u a l i t y wood, s l a b s , s h a v i n g s , sawdust, and s i m i l a r wastes which a r e c u r r e n t l y l e f t t o r o t or a r e burned. 7.2.3 E x i s t i n g Energy Resource S u p p l y Systems W h i l e s e e k i n g t o e s t a b l i s h a l t e r n a t e new energy s u p p l y systems based on renewable r e s o u r c e s , N i g e r i a s h o u l d c o n t i n u e t o i n c r e a s e i t s s u p p l y of c o n v e n t i o n a l energy r e s o u r c e s , i n c l u d i n g f i r e w o o d , o i l , n a t u r a l gas, c o a l , and hydro power. 7_.2_.3_.1_ Fuelwood P r o d u c t i o n In many r e g i o n s of N i g e r i a wood r e s o u r c e s and v e g e t a t i o n a r e d i m i n i s h i n g t o p r e c a r i o u s l y low l e v e l s . T h i s i s the r e s u l t of s e v e r a l f a c t o r s mentioned e a r l i e r , i n c l u d i n g p o p u l a t i o n growth which r e s u l t s i n e x p a n s i o n of farm l a n d s and s e t t l e m e n t a r e a s , and the c u t t i n g of t r e e s f o r use as wood f u e l or as p o l e s 281 TABLE 7.2 ESTIMATED COSTS OF BIOMASS AND CONVENTIONAL ENERGY PRODUCTS IN THE U.S.A. i n $ per m i l l i o n B.T.U u n l e s s o t h e r w i s e i n d i c a t e d PRODUCT COST FROM BIOMASS COST FROM CONVENTIONAL RESOURCES COST PROPORTION - BIOMASS TO CONVENTIONAL Methanol E t h a n o l Medium BTU Gas S u b s t i t u t e N a t u r a l Gas F u e l O i l E l e c t r i c i t y 8.4 15.0 4.7 4.8 3.6 - 15.9 - 36.3 - 7.4 - 7.3 - 7.9 0.03 (per KWH) 8.4 19.6 3.0 - 5.0 3.0 - 5.0 3.2 0.03 - 0.06 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.9 1.9 2.5 1.0 - 2.4 1.1 - 2.5 0.5 - 4.5 Source: B.A. Rahmer. A l t e r n a t i v e Energy; The P o t e n t i a l of Biomass. P e t r o l e u m Economist, October 1979, Volume XLVI, Number 10, 418. 282 f o r l o c a l c o n s t r u c t i o n r e s o u r c e s i s most c r i t i c a l i n n o r t h e r n r e g i o n s of N i g e r i a , where drought i s a c c e l e r a t i n g the p r o c e s s of d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n . There i s no easy s o l u t i o n t o t h i s problem of r a p i d d e p l e t i o n of f o r e s t l a n d s and b i o f u e l r e s o u r c e s . In the absence of b i r t h c o n t r o l the p o p u l a t i o n c o n t i n u e s t o grow, accompanied by a s e l f - p e r p e t u a t i n g c y c l e of i n c r e a s e d p r e s s u r e s on l a n d f o r a g r i c u l t u r e and s e t t l e m e n t , r e s u l t i n g i n the d e s t r u c t i o n of l a r g e t r a c t s of woodlands. A d d i t i o n a l l y , p o l i t i c a l p r e s s u r e s f o r even s p a t i a l development and the need t o decongest p o p u l a t i o n c o n c e n t r a t i o n s i n urban c e n t r e s i s l i k e l y t o m a i n t a i n a b r i s k u r b a n i z a t i o n program. Without the p r o v i s i o n of s u b s t i t u t e f u e l s of the r i g h t k i n d and on a l a r g e enough s c a l e , as w e l l as b e i n g a f f o r d a b l e , e x p l o i t a t i o n of wood r e s o u r c e s f o r f u e l a l s o c o n t i n u e s . C u r r e n t l y the N i g e r i a n government i s e s t a b l i s h i n g f o r e s t p l a n t a t i o n s i n an e f f o r t t o reduce the t h r e a t of d i m i n i s h i n g f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s . Y e t , d e s p i t e the l a r g e s c a l e of t h e s e p l a n t a t i o n s and the a t t e n t i o n they have g a i n e d i n government p o l i c i e s , \" they a r e u n l i k e l y t o a l l e v i a t e the b i o f u e l s u p p l y problems of the c o u n t r y . The f o c u s has been i n c o r r e c t l y p l a c e d on the p l a n t i n g of e x o t i c s p e c i e s of t r e e s such as p i n e , which ar e used t o f u l f i l l the needs of commercial wood i n d u s t r i e s such as p u l p m i l l s , r a t h e r than as a means of meeting b i o f u e l s u p p l y needs. Moreover, u n l i k e i n d i g e n o u s t r e e s p e c i e s which p r o v i d e f o o d and m e d i c i n e t o t h e p e o p l e , t h e s e e x o t i c s p e c i e s a r e seen by v i l l a g e r s o n l y as a s o u r c e of f u e lwood, and e x t e n s i v e a r e a s of the p l a n t a t i o n s a r e p r e m a t u r e l y and i l l e g a l l y c u t f o r such usage. Whether such p l a n t a t i o n s a r e p i l l a g e d or a l l o w e d t o grow t o f u l l m a t u r i t y , the b e n e f i t s t o the l o c a l 283 p e o p l e a r e l i m i t e d a t b e s t . The i m p l e m e n t a t i o n of programs i n v o l v i n g p r i v a t e wood p l a n t a t i o n s i s l i k e l y t o meet w i t h l i t t l e s u c c e s s . I n d i v i d u a l s a r e u n l i k e l y t o commit t h e i r r e s o u r c e s t o t r e e p l a n t i n g a c t i v i t i e s when they can y i e l d q u i c k e r r e t u r n s from food p r o d u c t i o n or t h r o u g h o t h e r economic a c t i v i t i e s . P e o p l e o f t e n f i n d i t m e a n i n g l e s s t o i n v e s t i n the f u t u r e t h r o u g h such a p r o j e c t , no m a t t e r how w e l l - i n f o r m e d they a r e c o n c e r n i n g the accompanying b e n e f i t s . R a t h e r , biomass p r o d u c t i o n f o r f u e l use s h o u l d f o c u s on v i l l a g e wood p l a n t a t i o n schemes i n v o l v i n g b o t h the A l t e r n a t e New Energy Resource U n i t and community l e a d e r s and use of some of the communally owned l a n d s . In a d d i t i o n t o non-i n d i g e n o u s s p e c i e s w i t h h i g h m a t u r i t y r a t e s , t h e use of i n d i g e n o u s s p e c i e s f o r the v i l l a g e f i r e w o o d p l a n t a t i o n c o u l d a l s o be i n v e s t i g a t e d . I n d i g e n o u s s p e c i e s chosen f o r t h e s e p r o j e c t s s h o u l d be t h o s e t h a t p r o v i d e f r u i t and m e d i c i n e as w e l l as wood, so t h a t the p e o p l e have an added i n c e n t i v e t o a l l o w them t o grow t o m a t u r i t y . Each N i g e r i a n community u s u a l l y has a v a r i e t y of i n f o r m a l r u l e s c o n c e r n i n g the h a r v e s t i n g of i n d i g e n o u s t r e e s , and t h i s may s e r v e s as a b a s i s f o r e d u c a t i n g t h e s e p e o p l e c o n c e r n i n g the need t o l i m i t the h a r v e s t of t h e s e p l a n t a t i o n s t o t r e e branches or stems. Government support s h o u l d be p r o v i d e d not o n l y i n terms of e d u c a t i o n , but a l s o i n t h e p r o v i s i o n of s e e d l i n g s , t o o l s and equipment, and c a p i t a l e x p e n d i t u r e s . W i n t e r b o l t o n (1979) n o t e s , f o r example, t h a t one of the reasons f o r low s u c c e s s i n v i l l a g e woodlot p r o j e c t s i n S a h e l was the f a i l u r e t o d e l i v e r key i n p u t s a t the r i g h t t i m e . Such m i s t a k e s must not be r e p e a t e d . 284 To a l l e v i a t e the f e a r of the l o c a l p e o p l e t h a t v i l l a g e wood p l a n t a t i o n s may be used as a means f o r the government t o t a k e c o n t r o l of l o c a l l a n d s , i t may be n e c e s s a r y t o e n t e r i n t o d e t a i l e d c o n t r a c t s w i t h the v i l l a g e , d e f i n i n g the d u t i e s and r i g h t s of a l l p a r t i e s c o n c e r n e d . T h i s measure has proved s u c c e s s f u l i n I n d i a (World Bank, 1980d). A l l r e f o r e s t a t i o n programs s h o u l d be accompanied by e d u c a t i o n t h r o u g h the mass media or l o c a l o p i n i o n l e a d e r s , t o i n c r e a s e awareness of the problems of d e f o r e s t a t i o n , the b e n e f i t s of t r e e p l a n t a t i o n p r o j e c t s , and improved f o r e s t management t e c h n i q u e s . T h i s type of campaign has been h e l p f u l i n implementing wood p l a n t a t i o n programs i n T a n z a n i a ( S k u t s c h , 1981). 7.2.3.2 O i l In the a r e a of o i l , i n c e n t i v e s s h o u l d be p r o v i d e d f o r c o n t i n u e d e x p l o r a t i o n and development a c t i v i t i e s , i n the form of r e a s o n a b l e p r o f i t m a r g i n s , a l l o w a n c e s f o r p r o d u c t i o n c o s t s t o the o i l companies, lower r o y a l t y r a t e s and lower t a x c r e d i t s t o the government. D i f f e r e n t i a l t a x t r e a t m e n t of p r o d u c e r s i n h i g h c o s t c o n c e s s i o n o i l p r o s p e c t i n g r e g i o n s s h o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d i n b o t h o f f s h o r e and onshore a r e a s . N i g e r i a may have t o be f l e x i b l e i n such i n c e n t i v e p o l i c i e s , as lower crude p r i c e s and a d e c l i n e i n demand w i l l c e r t a i n l y l e a d t o i n c r e a s i n g p r e s s u r e by o i l companies t o lower t a x e s and i n c r e a s e t h e i r e q u i t y p r o f i t s h a r e s . T i g h t government p o l i c i e s c o n c e r n i n g the import of equipment and goods, accompanied by h i g h r a t e s of i n f l a t i o n i n N i g e r i a may l e a d o i l companies t o demand t h a t the o f f i c i a l p r o f i t margin be i n d e x e d . G i v e n t h a t a t t r a c t i v e i n c e n t i v e s a r e 285 b e i n g o f f e r e d t o o i l companies f o r e x p l o r a t i o n and development i n d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s such as Canada and B r i t a i n , and i n l i g h t of the r e l a t i v e p o l i t i c a l s t a b i l i t y of t h e s e r e g i o n s , f o r e i g n o i l companies w i l l p r o b a b l y have l i t t l e m o t i v a t i o n t o expand t h e i r a c t i v i t i e s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s such as N i g e r i a u n l e s s s u b s t a n t i a l i n c e n t i v e s a r e o f f e r e d . In a d d i t i o n , N i g e r i a s h o u l d c o n s i d e r the p r i v a t i z a t i o n of the s t a t e ' s e q u i t y s h are i n the o i l a c t i v i t i e s of the c o u n t r y . Through i t s n a t i o n a l i z a t i o n p o l i c i e s N i g e r i a has s e c u r e d a s u b s t a n t i a l p a r t i c i p a t i v e i n t e r e s t i n the c o n c e s s i o n s of m u l t i n a t i o n a l o i l companies, r a n g i n g from s i x t y t o e i g h t y p e r c e n t . T h i s i n t e r e s t i s m a i n t a i n e d t h r o u g h the N i g e r i a n N a t i o n a l P e t r o l e u m C o r p o r a t i o n . To ensure the development of d i v e r s i f i e d s k i l l s and of s o u r c e s f o r f i n a n c i n g the o i l i n d u s t r y , N i g e r i a n b u s i n e s s and c o m m e r c i a l banks s h o u l d be g i v e n the o p p o r t u n i t y t o p urchase t h e s e s h a r e s . T h i s would a l s o h e l p t o a l l e v i a t e c u r r e n t f i n a n c i a l d i f f i c u l t i e s b e i n g e x p e r i e n c e d by the N i g e r i a n government. 7_. 2_. 3_. 3_ N a t u r a l Gas One major problem w i t h N i g e r i a n p o l i c i e s c o n c e r n i n g n a t u r a l gas c e n t e r s around the i s s u e of f l a r i n g the n a t u r a l gas a s s o c i a t e d w i t h o i l p r o d u c t i o n . A v a i l a b l e o p t i o n s i n c l u d e 1) t r a n s p o r t i n g the n a t u r a l gas by p i p e l i n e t o i n t e r n a l consumers a c r o s s the c o u n t r y ; 2) i n t e n s i v e u t i l i z a t i o n of gas f o r power g e n e r a t i o n c l o s e t o a r e a s of p r o d u c t i o n and l i n k e d t o the n a t i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n g r i d ; 3) r e i n j e c t i o n of such gas i n t o the ground; 4) e s t a b l i s h m e n t of a l i q u e f i e d n a t u r a l gas e x p o r t p r o j e c t ; 286 5. development of p e t r o c h e m i c a l p r o j e c t s which u t i l i z e gas and save on f o r e i g n exchange t h r o u g h the p r o v i s i o n of i m p o r t -s u b s t i t u t i o n p r o d u c t s such as p l a s t i c s . Each of t h e s e o p t i o n s has r e c e i v e d s e r i o u s a t t e n t i o n i n N i g e r i a ' s c u r r e n t energy p o l i c i e s . However, a c a s u a l a n a l y s i s of the g l o b a l environment r e v e a l s the l i m i t a t i o n s of each o p t i o n . In a d d i t i o n t o the c a p i t a l and t e c h n o l o g i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s i n v o l v e d i n the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of a l i q u e f i e d n a t u r a l gas e x p o r t p r o j e c t or a p e t r o c h e m i c a l i n d u s t r y , the N i g e r i a n government s h o u l d be aware t h a t the Western World, c u r r e n t l y has an e x c e s s of such i n d u s t r i e s , and t h a t p l a n t s a r e b e i n g c l o s e d and employees put out of work. I t i s t h e r e f o r e u n l i k e l y t h a t p e t r o - c h e m i c a l p r o d u c t s or l i q u e f i e d n a t u r a l gas w i l l be i m p o r t e d i n t o t h e s e c o u n t r i e s . S i m i l a r l y , the d i s t r i b u t i o n of gas on a w i d e - s c a l e b a s i s t h r o u g h p i p e l i n e s i s not o n l y c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e , but a l s o r e q u i r e s the p r o v i s i o n of e x t e n s i v e s a f e t y measures and i s e x t r e m e l y s u s c e p t i b l e t o s abotage. In l i g h t of t h e s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s i t appears t h a t n a t u r a l gas- produced i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h o i l s h o u l d be r e i n j e c t e d i n t o the ground or used i n n a t u r a l gas power c o n v e r s i o n systems. 2.2_.3_.4_ C o a l And Hydro Power The N i g e r i a n government s h o u l d c o n s i d e r the r e v i t a l i z a t i o n of the t r a d i t i o n a l r o l e of c o a l i n power p r o d u c t i o n and r a i l t r a n s p o r t systems. C o a l s h o u l d be s u b s t i t u t e d f o r o i l on a l a r g e s c a l e i n e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i n g s t a t i o n s , i n d u s t r i a l a p p l i c a t i o n , and i n the f u e l i n g of r a i l l o c o m o t i v e s . 287 In terms of hydro power, e x i s t i n g programs of development s h o u l d be encouraged, such as th o s e l o c a t e d a t Jebba, L o k o j a , and S h i r o r r o . 7.2.4 Energy S u p p l y D i v e r s i f i c a t i o n P e t r o l e u m , c o a l , and n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s a r e f i n i t e i n n a t u r e , and the domestic demand f o r th e s e energy r e s o u r c e s may exceed t h e i r s u p p l y a t any t i m e . Renewable energy o p t i o n s such as s o l a r , wind, and biomass, on the o t h e r hand, a r e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y i n f i n i t e but t h e i r s u p p l y i s i n t e r m i t t e n t i n n a t u r e . A l t h o u g h hydro r e s o u c e s a r e a renewable energy s o u r c e , i n a d e q u a t e water l e v e l s a r e a d v e r s e l y a f f e c t i n g N i g e r i a ' s major hydro s t a t i o n a t K a i n j i , and t h e r e a r e f r e q u e n t d i s r u p t i o n s i n power s u p p l y . T h i s r e a l i t y r e f l e c t s the danger of r e l i a n c e on a s i n g l e s o u r c e of energy or a s i n g l e s u p p l y sub-system. N i g e r i a ' s n a t i o n a l energy development program s h o u l d i n v o l v e d i v e r s i f i e d energy s u p p l y systems. E l e c t r i c i t y sub-systems s h o u l d i n c l u d e h y d r o , p e t r o l e u m , c o a l , wood, and wind powered s t a t i o n s . L i q u i d f u e l sub-systems s h o u l d c o n s i s t of g a s o l i n e from p e t r o l e u m as w e l l as f u e l s from s y n t h e t i c t e c h n i q u e s i n v o l v i n g biomass or o t h e r p l a n t m a t e r i a l s such as c a s s a v a , sugar cane, or sweet p o t a t o e s . Long-term energy programs i n t h i s a r e a s h o u l d i n v o l v e the i n i t i a t i o n of ongoing r e s e a r c h and development a c t i v i t i e s which seek t e c h n i c a l as w e l l as e c o n o m i c a l l y f e a s i b l e ways of combining i n t e r m e d i a t e energy c o n v e r s i o n p r o d u c t s i n the p r o d u c t i o n of energy o u t p u t f o r end-use. An example of such an i n t e g r a t e d energy s u p p l y system i s demo n s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e 7.1. SOURCE D E V I C E I N T E R M E D I A T E OUTPUT E L E C T R I C I T Y CONVERSION SYSTEM Heat S o l a r B i o f u e l C o a l F i g u r e 7 . 1 A H Y P O T H E T I C A L I N T E G R A T E D ENERGY S U P P L Y SYSTEM 289 7.2.5 I n t e g r a t e d Development P l a n s To d a t e , energy s u p p l y p o l i c i e s i n N i g e r i a have been d e s i g n e d w i t h o u t a c o n s c i o u s e f f o r t t o de t e r m i n e or a n t i c i p a t e changes i n the development p a t t e r n s of major non-energy s e c t o r s of the economy, d e s p i t e the f a c t t h a t t h e s e s e c t o r s shape the n a t i o n ' s energy demands. S i m i l a r l y , p u b l i c programs l e a d i n g t o the e x p a n s i o n of a c t i v i t i e s w i t h i n t h e s e non-energy s e c t o r s a r e e s t a b l i s h e d w i t h l i t t l e c o n s i d e r a t i o n of t h e i r e f f e c t on n a t i o n a l energy demands and consumption. F i g u r e 7.2 i l l u s t r a t e s i h e a c t u a l - i n t e r a c t i o n between th e s e energy and non-energy s e c t o r s . The development of i n d u s t r i e s , f o r example, c r e a t e s the need f o r h e a t , power, and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a t an i n c r e a s e d l e v e l . U r b a n i z a t i o n i n c r e a s e s the need f o r b a s i c p u b l i c a m e n i t i e s and s e r v i c e s such as t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , communication, and water s u p p l y , which a c c e l e r a t e s the l e v e l of domest i c energy demand. The \"Green R e v o l u t i o n \" which i s b e i n g poromoted by the N i g e r i a n government r e q u i r e s s u b s t a n t i a l energy i n p u t , e i t h e r d i r e c t l y or i n d i r e c t l y , i n the form of o i l f o r t r a c t o r s , e l e c t r i c i t y f o r i r r i g a t i o n , or f e r t i l i z e r s 5 and p e s t i c i d e s produced from p e t r o c h e m i c a l s . G i v e n t h a t n a t i o n a l development p l a n s c o n t r i b u t e g r e a t l y t o the energy demands w i t h i n each s e c t o r of the economy, i t i s i m p o r t a n t t h a t t h e c r i t e r i a used i n d e t e r m i n i n g t h e s e p l a n s i n c l u d e energy s u p p l y c o n s i d e r a t i o n s as much as they do c a p i t a l , l a b o r , and o t h e r major c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . At the same t i m e , n a t i o n a l energy p o l i c i e s s h o u l d p r o v i d e f o r b o t h s h o r t - t e r m and l o n g - t e r m energy needs i n each of the major s e c t o r s of the N i g e r i a n economy. NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANS •A -^AGRICULTURE -^INDUSTRY -t*HOUSEHOLDS-->ENERGY -•TRANSPORTATION > CAPITAL & TECHNOLOGY TOTAL DEMAND FOR ENERGY POLICY ->EVALUATION «4-1 AVAILABLE ENERGY RESOURCES -E> ENERGY POLICY F i g u r e 7.2 INTERACTION BETWEEN ENERGY AND NON-ENERGY SECTORS OF THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY 291 7.2.6 F o r e i g n A i d A l l a r e a s of energy r e l a t e d i s s u e s r e q u i r e r e s e a r c h and t e c h n o l o g i c a l development. Needs range from the development of a l t e r n a t e energy t e c h n o l o g i e s which a r e a c c e p t a b l e t o and meet the needs of the l o c a l p e o p l e , t o the p r o v i s i o n of equipment and spare p a r t s r e q u i r e d t o m a i n t a i n the c o u n t r y ' s energy s u p p l y system. A s s i s t a n c e from donor c o u n t r i e s or i n t e r n a t i o n a l s u p p o r t a g e n c i e s such as FAO and the U n i t e d N a t i o n s s h o u l d be l e s s i n the form of f i n a n c i a l a i d than i n the a r e a s of r e s e a r c h and l o c a l l y based t e c h n o l o g i c a l development. E x p e r t s from d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s a r e r e q u i r e d t o e n t e r i n t o j o i n t p r o j e c t s w i t h l o c a l s k i l l e d p e r s o n n e l , t o u n d e r t a k e i n t e n s i v e t r a i n i n g of l o c a l s c i e n t i s t s , and t o ensure a w i d e r d i f f u s i o n of r e s e a r c h and t e c h n o l o g i c a l i n n o v a t i o n s aimed a t l o c a l problems and needs. Such a s s i s t a n c e from d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s need not be seen as a l t r u i s t i c . E x i s t i n g energy s u p p l y r e s o u r c e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h o s e which a r e p e t r o l e u m based, a r e l i m i t e d and development of a l t e r n a t e new energy r e s o u r c e t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r use i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s w i l l p r o b a b l y ensure the a v a i l a b i l i t y of t h e s e f i n i t e r e s o u r c e s f o r use i n d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s whose systems a r e r i g i d l y t i e d t o such r e s o u r c e s . S e c o n d l y , the e x p l o i t a t i o n of raw m a t e r i a l s , i n c l u d i n g m i n e r a l s , f o r use i n the m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s of the d e v e l o p e d w o r l d depends g r e a t l y on t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y of the c o r r e c t t y pe of cheap energy s u p p l i e s . T h i r d l y , energy i s one of the major f a c t o r s which d e t e r m i n e the pace of economic development of a l l n a t i o n s . Slow economic growth i n the d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s means a lower per c a p i t a income and, t h e r e b y , l e s s d i s p o s a b l e income f o r consumption of manufactured goods i m p o r t e d from the d e v e l o p e d w o r l d . F i n a l l y , 292 c o n c e r n i n the d e v e l o p e d w o r l d f o r e n v i r o n m e n t a l s a f e t y has slowed the r a t e a t which i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s can i n t r o d u c e t e c h n o l o g i c a l i n n o v a t i o n s aimed a t r e d u c i n g t h e i r dependence on c o n v e n t i o n a l f u e l t y p e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y t hose which a r e p e t r o l e u m based. Were demands f o r c o n v e n t i o n a l p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s i n the d e v e l o p i n g w o r l d slowed t h r o u g h the p r o v i s i o n of p u b l i c l y a c c e p t e d a l t e r n a t e new energy o p t i o n s , t h e s e d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s c o u l d buy more time t o d e t e r m i n e ways by which e c o l o g i c a l l y d e s t r u c t i v e e m i s s i o n s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h n u c l e a r energy and c o a l g a s i f i c a t i o n can be d e a l t w i t h . 7.2.7 Energy C o n s e r v a t i o n W h i l e p o l i c i e s r e l a t i n g t o N i g e r i a ' s energy s e c t o r have r e f l e c t e d the need f o r i n c r e a s e d energy s u p p l i e s , l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n has been g i v e n t o the i n e f f i c i e n c y w i t h which a v a i l a b l e r e s o u r c e s and s u p p l i e s a r e c u r r e n t l y used. One p o s s i b l e r e ason f o r t h i s i s the N i g e r i a n economy's over dependence on p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s , and c o n c e r n t h a t the c u r t a i l m e n t of energy consumption w i l l amount t o r e s t r i c t i o n s on economic growth, as w e l l as r e d u c t i o n s i n the goods and s e r v i c e s which the c i t i z e n s d e s p e r a t e l y need. As i n most d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , c o n s e r v a t i o n i n N i g e r i a i s l o o k e d upon as b e i n g i n c o m p a t i b l e w i t h economic growth. N e v e r t h e l e s s , e x p e r i e n c e i n the d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s has shown t h a t energy c o n s e r v a t i o n can be embarked upon w i t h o u t l o s s of economic growth or b e n e f i t s . Indeed, energy c o n s e r v a t i o n has been d e f i n e d as \"the s t r a t e g y of a d j u s t i n g and o p t i m i z i n g e n e r g y - u s i n g systems and p r o c e d u r e s so as t o reduce energy r e q u i r e m e n t s per u n i t of o u t p u t (or w e l l -b e i n g ) w i t h o u t a f f e c t i n g s o c i o - e c o n o m i c development or c a u s i n g 293 d i s r u p t i o n i n l i f e s t y l e s \" ( S c h i p p e r , 1976:455). A second p o s s i b l e reason f o r the l a c k of a t t e n t i o n t o energy c o n s e r v a t i o n p o l i c i e s i s the low per c a p i t a energy consumption l e v e l which c u r r e n t l y e x i s t s i n N i g e r i a , accompanied by the view t h a t energy use s a v i n g s a r e of importance o n l y t o a f f l u e n t and h i g h per c a p i t a energy consuming, d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . There a r e a number of arguments, however, which d i s c r e d i t t h i s p o i n t of view. T o l b a (1978:11), f o r example, n o t e s t h a t , The commonly h e l d axiom t h a t \" o n l y the- a f f l u e n t can a f f o r t c o n s e r v a t i o n \" i s t h o r o u g h l y d i s c r e d i t e d by an e x a m i n a t i o n of what has r e c e n t l y been c a l l e d \"the o t h e r energy c r i s i s : f i r e w o o d \" . P r o p e r management of energy r e s o u r c e s i s e s s e n t i a l i n poor c o u n t r i e s because of energy's importance i n domestic l i f e , a g r i c u l t u r e , the c r e a t i o n of p r o d u c t i v e j o b s , and t h e b a l a n c e of t r a d e w i t h o t h e r n a t i o n s . S i m i l a r l y , Hayes (1981:46) remarks t h a t , I t i s as i m p o r t a n t f o r the T h i r d World as i t i s f o r the i n d u s t r i a l w o r l d t o view energy c o n s e r v a t i o n as a l e g i t i m a t e o b j e c t of massive p u b l i c s u p p o r t because energy must be i n v e s t e d i n o r d e r t o d e r i v e energy i n a u s e f u l form - f i r e w o o d r e q u i r e s l o n g walks w i t h heavv b u n d l e s ; c o a l must be mined and t r a n s p o r t e d - a u n i t of energy saved i n end use w i l l a d d i t i o n a l l y save the energy o t h e r w i s e l o s t i n the p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s ... Investments i n c o n s e r v a t i o n , such as p r e s s u r e c o o k e r s and more e f f i c i e n t s t o v e s , w i l l a l most i n v a r i a b l y save more energy than s i m i l a r i n v e s t m e n t s t o i n c r e a s e s u p p l i e s would produce. I t i s i m p o r t a n t t h a t N i g e r i a ' s N a t i o n a l Energy P o l i c y i n c l u d e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the numerous i n s t a n c e s of w a s t e f u l energy use p r a c t i c e s w i t h i n the economy, and e x p l o r e the v a r i o u s means of c o n s e r v i n g energy. One of the most o b v i o u s a r e a s of w a s t e f u l energy consumption w i t h i n N i g e r i a i s i n the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r . L a r g e numbers of t a x i s and p r i v a t e a u t o m o b i l e s roam the roadways h a l f empty. T h i s s i t u a t i o n i s f a c i l i t a t e d by government s u b s i d y 294 of g a s o l i n e p r i c e s . S h o u l d t h i s s u b s i d y be removed, however, i t would r e s u l t i n h i g h e r f a r e s f o r p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t on wagons and l o r r i e s , which s e r v e the needs of the low income m a j o r i t y . These v e h i c l e s a r e a l s o the major means by which goods a r e t r a n s p o r t e d t o market, and i n c r e a s e d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s would r e s u l t i n h i g h e r r e t a i l p r i c e s . Measures which c o u l d be implemented i n c l u d e imposing a l i m i t on the number of t a x i s which a r e l i c e n s e d each y e a r , and heavy import d u t i e s on p r i v a t e c a r s , as w e l l as t a x e s on domestic s a l e s of p r i v a t e a u t o m o b i l e s . A l t h o u g h the c u r r e n t p r a c t i c e of b a s i n g import d u t y on c a r weight has been s u c c e s s f u l i n r e d u c i n g the number of l a r g e c a r s brought i n t o the c o u n t r y , the number of s m a l l c a r s has grown r a p i d l y . Import duty must be i n c r e a s e d r e g a r d l e s s of s i z e i f the f l o w of c a r s i n t o N i g e r i a i s t o be stemmed. However, t h e s e measures s h o u l d be imposed o n l y w i t h the s i m u l t a n e o u s p r o v i s i o n of l u x u r y coaches which p r o v i d e t r a v e l l e r s w i t h the c o n v e n i e n c e and c o m f o r t of t a x i s and p r i v a t e a u t o m o b i l e s . Whereas p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t i s c u r r e n t l y c h a r a c t e r i z e d by o v e r - c r o w d i n g , c o n g e s t i o n , d e l a y s , and f r e q u e n t m e c h a n i c a l f a i l u r e s , means s h o u l d be found t o ensure t h a t t h e s e problems a r e overcome. Not p n l y s h o u l d the q u a l i t y of s e r v i c e be c l o s e l y m o n i t o r e d and c o n s t a n t l y upgraded, but the government s h o u l d a l s o ensure t h a t the number of l u x u r y buses a v a i l a b l e t o t r a v e l l e r s i s s u f f i c i e n t t o meet the demand. So l o n g as t h e r e i s a s h o r t a g e of t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s , p e o p l e w i l l c o n t i n u e t o be crammed i n t o whatever buses a r e a v a i l a b l e , no m a t t e r how p o o r l y m a i n t a i n e d . In the i n t e r e s t of e q u i t y , t h o s e p o t e n t i a l t a x i owners who a r e e x c l u d e d from the b u s i n e s s by v i r t u e of the l i c e n c i n g quota c o u l d f i n d employment i n the o p e r a t i o n , 295 maintenance, and m o n i t o r i n g of p u b l i c t r a n s p o r t systems. The development of adequate commmunication networks such as t e l e p h o n e systems and p o s t a l s e r v i c e s can a l s o c o n t r i b u t e t r emendously t o energy s a v i n g s i n the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r . Much of the t r a v e l w i t h i n and between urban c e n t r e s i s n e c e s s i t a t e d by s o c i a l and b u s i n e s s r e q u i r e m e n t s which c o u l d be met t h r o u g h e f f i c i e n t t e l e p h o n e and p o s t a l systems were they a v a i l a b l e . Moreover, the revenue g e n e r a t e d by such systems c o u l d be used t o f i n a n c e o t h e r s o c i o - e c o n o m i c developments w i t h i n the c o u n t r y . I n t e r f u e l s u b s t i t u t i o n can a l s o p r o v i d e s u b s t a n t i a l s a v i n g s i n terms of energy consumption. As a means of r e d u c i n g dependence on o i l i n the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r , c o a l c o u l d be r e - i n t r o d u c e d f o r r a i l w a y t r a n s p o r t . S i m i l a r l y , f u e l s which a r e l o c a l l y a v a i l a b l e but d i f f i c u l t t o e x p o r t , such as n a t u r a l gas, s h o u l d be put t o more e f f e c t i v e use, w h i l e p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s a r e used t o g a i n e x p o r t revenues and t o s e r v e as f e e d s t o c k f o r the c o u n t r y ' s p e t r o - c h e m i c a l i n d u s t r i e s . Long-term energy p o l i c i e s must a l s o e x p l o r e the use of e l e c t r i c i t y produced from renewable energy s o u r c e s , such as hydropower, f o r use on r a i l l i n e s as a means of e n s u r i n g t h a t growth i n t h i s s e c t o r does not c o n t i n u e t o r e l y on f i n i t e energy s o u r c e s . D e s p i t e the s t a t e d g o a l of even s p a t i a l development i n N i g e r i a , s o c i o - e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t i e s a r e c o n c e n t r a t e d i n a few major c i t i e s , from which goods must be t r a n s p o r t e d t o o t h e r r e g i o n s of the c o u n t r y . The d e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n of s e r v i c e s t h r o u g h g r e a t e r emphasis on community r a t h e r than urban development would e l i m i n a t e a g r e a t d e a l of f u e l usage f o r t r a n s p o r t p u r p o s e s . 296 Energy c o n s e r v a t i o n measures i n the i n d u s t r i a l and h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r s of N i g e r i a i n v o l v e t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r more e f f i c i e n t use of energy r e s o u r c e s . In the i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r , c o n s e r v a t i o n e f f o r t s s h o u l d be i n i t i a t d by the proposed energy c o n s e r v a t i o n u n i t , who s h o u l d mandate a team of e n g i n e e r s t o a n a l y z e energy use by major i n d u s t r i e s i n the c o u n t r y , and t o d e v e l o p a phased f u e l - s a v i n g program f o r each i n d u s t r y . Energy s a v i n g t e c h n i q u e s i n t h i s s e c t o r might i n c l u d e the use of a u t o m a t i c t e m p e r a t u r e c o n t r o l s , i n c r e a s e d e f f i c i e n c y of furnaces,, s c r a p r e c y c l i n g , more, f r e q u e n t s e r v i c i n g of machinery, more e f f i c i e n t l i g h t i n g d e v i c e s , and the l i k e . Once w a s t e f u l energy use p r a c t i c e s have been i d e n t i f i e d the government can p r o v i d e i n c e n t i v e s t o i n d u s t r i e s f o r investment i n e n e r g y - s a v i n g t e c h n i q u e s . A p o s s i b l e a d j u n c t t o the p r o v i s i o n of i n c e n t i v e s might be the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of energy e f f i c i e n c y s t a n d a r d s f o r major i n d u s t r i a l equipment. A l l such measures s h o u l d be accompanied by government-sponsored seminars t o educate managers c o n c e r n i n g the need f o r and methods of energy c o n s e r v a t i o n . In the h o u s e h o l d s e c t o r t h e r e i s a l s o a g r e a t need f o r the i n t r o d u c t i o n of more e f f i c i e n t a p p l i a n c e s , accompanied by p o l i c y measures t o l i m i t or r e s t r i c t the import of l e s s e f f i c i e n t t e c h n o l o g i e s . For example, th e use of f l o u r e s c e n t l i g h t b u l b s s h o u l d be encouraged, as they c o n v e r t over o n e - f i f t h of energy i n e l e c t r i c i t y i n t o l i g h t , compared t o i n c a n d e s c e n t b u l b s which c o n v e r t o n l y o n e - t w e n t i e t h of the energy i n t o l i g h t . S i m i l a r l y , improved wood s t o v e s would y i e l d s u b s t a n t i a l energy s a v i n g s , as those c u r r e n t l y i n use o f t e n e n t a i l an average heat r e c o v e r y of under t h r e e p e r c e n t . As s t a t e d throughout t h i s s t u d y , however, 297 any such i n n o v a t i o n s must meet both the energy and non-energy needs of the i n t e n d e d u s e r s i f they a r e t o be a c c e p t e d and w i d e l y adopted. 7.2.8 C o n c l u s i o n s A l t h o u g h a wide range of p o l i c i e s and programs e x i s t t o s e r v e as components f o r an i n t e g r a t e d n a t i o n a l energy p o l i c y f o r N i g e r i a , the degree t o which any c o m b i n a t i o n of t h e s e programs can be s u c c e s s f u l l y implemented i s dependent upon the e x i s t e n c e of e f f e c t i v e i n s t i t u t i o n a l and a d m i n s t r a t i v e mechanisms. The most immediate r e q u i r e m e n t i s the e d u c a t i o n and t r a i n i n g of the N i g e r i a n p o p u l a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g m a t t e r s of energy c o n s e r v a t i o n . 7.3 Comparison W i t h The R e s u l t s Of A S i m i l a r Study In 1979 the U n i t e d N a t i o n s U n i v e r s i t y began a r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t on r u r a l energy systems i n s o u t h w e s t e r n N i g e r i a . P r o f e s s o r G.J.A. Ojo of the U n i v e r s i t y of I f e , N i g e r i a , examines the f r e q u e n c y of use of v a r i o u s t r a d i t i o n a l and n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l t y p e s by households f o r domestic p u r p o s e s , and h o u s e h o l d s ' p r e f e r e n c e s f o r a v a i l a b l e or known s o u r c e s of f u e l . An i n t e r v i e w q u e s t i o n n a i r e i s employed t o c o l l e c t d a t a and two s e p a r a t e p r e l i m i n a r y r e p o r t s have been p u b l i s h e d t o d a t e . The f i r s t p u b l i c a t i o n , i n 1980, s t u d i e s the r u r a l town of I l e - l f e and the v i l l a g e of Osu, both of which a r e w i t h i n s o u t h w e s t e r n N i g e r i a (Ojo, 1980). A t o t a l of 180 households a r e s u r v e y e d t o o b t a i n d a t a f o r t h i s r e p o r t . The second r e p o r t , p u b l i s h e d i n 1981, s t u d i e s the v i l l a g e s of Abata-Egba and Omi-Adio, from which 164 households a r e s u r v e y e d (Ojo, 1981). 298 There a r e a number of d i f f e r e n c e s i n the r e s e a r c h d e s i g n s of the s t u d y c a r r i e d out by Ojo and t h i s study of energy use i n n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n N i g e r i a . For example, the study i n s o u t h w e s t e r n N i g e r i a l i m i t s i t s e l f t o r u r a l s e t t i n g s , whereas t h i s r e s e a r c h e r b e l i e v e s t h a t energy problems w i t h i n r u r a l and urban s e t t i n g s have an impact on one another and cannot be u n d e r s t o o d i n i s o l a t i o n from each o t h e r . S e c o n d l y , w h i l e Ojo examines the f r e q u e n c y of use of c e r t a i n f u e l t y p e s , and u s e r s ' p r e f e r e n c e s f o r v a r i o u s c o n v e n t i o n a l f u e l s , the s t u d y of households i n n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n N i g e r i a e l i c i t s i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g why a g i v e n type of f u e l i s p r e f e r r e d or used, and asks r e s p o n d e n t s t o i d e n t i f y u n d e s i r a b l e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of f u e l t y p e s c u r r e n t l y i n use. Ojo (1980:42) r e c o g n i z e s the need f o r i n f o r m a t i o n of t h i s t y p e and n o t e s , I t i s n e c e s s a r y t o bear i n mind the q u a l i t i e s of the f u e l t y pe which the u s e r s opt f o r , i n o r d e r t o f i n d ways of i n c o r p o r a t i n g such q u a l i t i e s i n a l t e r n a t i v e f u e l t y p e s which may be worth p r o m o t i n g m a i n l y because of o t h e r advantages which may not be i m m e d i a t e l y apparent t o the u s e r s . For example, w h i l e r e n e w a b i l i t y and e n v i r o n m e n t a l s a f e t y may not be of immediate importance t o h o u s e h o l d s , t h e s e q u a l i t i e s may be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o new energy systems which w i l l be a c c e p t a b l e t o i n t e n d e d u s e r s so l o n g as o t h e r needs a r e a l s o met by the system. F i n a l l y , w h i l e both s t u d i e s p r e s e n t d a t a c o n c e r n i n g h o u s e h o l d s i z e and income l e v e l s , o n l y the s t u d y i n n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n N i g e r i a c o n t a i n s i n f o r m a t i o n c o n c e r n i n g the amount of t r a d i t i o n a l and n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s consumed by h o u s e h o l d s . These d a t a form the s t a t i s t i c a l b a s i s f o r a n a l y s i s of the impact of s o c i a l - e c o n o m i c f a c t o r s on the l e v e l of consumption of t r a d i t i o n a l and n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s . The depth of a n a l y s i s of 299 Ojo's s t u d y , on the o t h e r hand, i s l i m i t e d t o the c r o s s - t a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n of respond e n t s a l o n g c l a s s c a t e g o r i e s . D e s p i t e d i f f e r e n c e s i n the scope of t h e i r i n v e s t i g a t i o n s , b o t h Ojo's study i n so u t h w e s t e r n N i g e r i a and t h i s r e s e a r c h i n t o energv use i n n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n p a r t s of the c o u n t r y share a common c o n c e r n , namely the need t o d e v e l o p new energy systems which meet the u s e r s ' p e r c e i v e d needs and p r e f e r e n c e s . Moreover, the f i n d i n g s of each s t u d y r e i n f o r c e t h o s e of t h e o t h e r , i n t h a t e m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e p r o v i d e d t h r o u g h b o t h s t u d i e s shows t h a t f i r e w o o d and kerosene ..are the most p o p u l a r f u e l s c u r r e n t l y used i n v i l l a g e s t o meet h o u s e h o l d energy needs. Among the t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of energy, f i r e w o o d i s used f r e q u e n t l y f o r c o o k i n g and water h e a t i n g . Y e t , bo t h s t u d i e s show t h a t households i n r u r a l s e t t i n g s would most p r e f e r t o use the e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l forms of energy f o r t h e i r v a r i o u s d o m e s t i c t a s k s . For the purposes of h i s stu d y i n sou t h w e s t e r n N i g e r i a Ojo adopts c e r t a i n hypotheses from a v a r i e t y of e a r l i e r s t u d i e s . A n a l y s i s of d a t a o b t a i n e d i n r u r a i and urban s e t t i n g s of n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n N i g e r i a may be used t o t e s t some of th e s e h y p o t h e s e s . For example, Ojo h y p o t h e s i z e s t h a t u s e r s ' r a n k i n g of f u e l p r e f e r e n c e s w i l l d i f f e r from t h e i r r a n k i n g of a c t u a l c h o i c e s , and t h a t many use f i r e w o o d but few p r e f e r i t . T h i s s t u d y of n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n N i g e r i a shows t h a t i n d e e d , a l t h o u g h v i l l a g e h o u s e h o l d s and low income e a r n e r s i n r u r a l towns and urban c e n t r e s r e l y h e a v i l y on f i r e w o o d and o t h e r t r a d i t i o n a l s o u r c e s of energy, t h e i r e x p r e s s e d p r e f e r e n c e i s f o r the e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l t y p e s ; c u r r e n t f u e l c h o i c e s a r e 300 based on a c c e s s i b i l i t y , r e l i a b i l i t y of s u p p l y , and a f f o r d a b i l i t y r a t h e r than p r e f e r e n c e . Ojo f u r t h e r h y p o t h e s i z e s t h a t f i r e w o o d has low s o c i a l s t a t u s , as i t i s used m a i n l y by poor peop l e or as a standby s o u r c e of f u e l f o r the r i c h . The a n a l y s i s of the r e l a t i o n s h i p between h o u s e h o l d income and the l e v e l of t r a d i t i o n a l energy consumption i n v i l l a g e s , r u r a l towns and urban c e n t r e s of n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n p a r t s of N i g e r i a c o n f i r m s t h i s h y p o t h e s i s , as w e l l as a f u r t h e r h y p o t h e s i s put f o r t h by O j o, namely t h a t p e r s o n s i n i n c r e a s i n g l y h i g h e r income groups depend d e c r e a s i n g l y on f i r e w o o d . Another of Ojo's hypotheses i s t h a t u s e r s ' p r e f e r e n c e s a r e s t r o n g l y a f f e c t e d by t r a d i t i o n , income, s o c i a l s t a t u s , and d o m e s t i c c i r c u m s t a n c e s . T h i s i s not found t o be the case i n n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n N i g e r i a , where h o u s e h o l d s ' p r e f e r e n c e f o r a g i v e n f u e l t y pe i s based on f a c t o r s such as s a f e t y , c o n v e n i e n c e , v e r s a t i l i t y , c l e a n l i n e s s , and e f f i c i e n c y . Only where a h o u s e h o l d ' s p r e f e r r e d f u e l type i s u n a v a i l a b l e or u n a f f o r d a b l e i s c h o i c e based on f a m i l i a r i t y w i t h the f u e l . D e s p i t e c u l t u r a l d i f f e r e n c e s , r e g a r d l e s s of h o u s e h o l d s i z e , income, or s o c i a l s t a t u s , the overwhelming m a j o r i t y of h o u s e h o l d s i n t e r v i e w e d i n n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e a s t e r n N i g e r i a s t a t e a p r e f e r e n c e f o r e x i s t i n g n o n t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s , p a r t i c u l a r l y e l e c t r i c i t y , on the b a s i s of s a f e t y , c o n v e n i e n c e , c l e a n l i n e s s and e f f i c i e n c y . T h i s f i n d i n g cannot be over-emphasized. I f r e s e a r c h e r s c o n t i n u e t o l a b o r under the m i s c o n c e p t i o n t h a t user p r e f e r e n c e s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s a r e based on f a c t o r s such as t r a d i t i o n , income, s o c i a l s t a t u s , and domestic c i r c u m s t a n c e s , they w i l l not be a b l e t o a r r i v e a t an energy s u p p l y system which i s a c c e p t a b l e t o the 3 0 1 i n t e n d e d u s e r s as a replacement f o r p etroleum-based f u e l s or f i r e w o o d . 7.4 C o n c l u s i o n And Recommendations The o v e r r i d i n g c o n f i d e n c e i n a t e c h n o l o g i c a l f i x f o r the d o m e s t i c energy s u p p l y problems i n N i g e r i a , c o u p l e d w i t h the need t o p r o v i d e the cheapest p o s s i b l e s u p p l y of energy, i s so p r e s s i n g t h a t t h e r e has been l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n p a i d t o the i n t r i n s i c and s a l i e n t energy demand r e q u i r e m e n t s and p r e f e r e n c e s of the p e o p l e whom the new t e c h n o l o g i e s a r e i n t e n d e d t o s e r v e . T h i s e r r o r i n judgement has l e d t o the d e v o t i o n of much time and e f f o r t i n the a r e a s of r e s e a r c h and development, as w e l l as i n e x t e n s i v e d i s c u s s i o n of the m e r i t s of new energy systems such as s o l a r c o o k e r s or b i o g a s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , however, t h e s e d e s i g n s do not i n c o r p o r a t e the e s s e n t i a l q u a l i t i e s needed f o r t h e i r a d o p t i o n by the l o c a l p e o p l e , and l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n i s p a i d t o the i n t r o d u c t i o n or t r a n s f e r of t e c h n o l o g i e s which can s u p p l y energy from a l t e r n a t e new energy s o u r c e s i n a manner t h a t meets u s e r s ' p r e f e r e n c e s . Two major d i f f i c u l t i e s c o n f r o n t r e s e a r c h e r s and p o l i c y a n a l y s t s i n t h e i r s e a r c h f o r a c c e p t a b l e a l t e r n a t e new energy s u p p l y t e c h n o l o g i e s . F i r s t i s the f a c t t h a t i n t r i n s i c q u a l i t i e s of energy demands a r e d i f f i c u l t t o measure, as they a r e a b s t r a c t by n a t u r e . Second i s the c o n c e r n t h a t poor households w i l l a l w ays have l e s s a c c e s s t o new s o u r c e s of energy, even where the new t e c h n o l o g y meets t h e i r needs and p r e f e r e n c e s . In the f a c e of such o b s t a c l e s , what can be done t o ensure s u i t a b l e p r o g r e s s ? The framework which t h i s s t u d y proposes b e g i n s w i t h p r e f e r e n c e 302 f e a s i b i l i t y s t u d i e s , moves t o t e c h n i c a l i n v e s t i g a t i o n s , and then t o a s e a r c h f o r improved economic p r o v i s i o n s . The f i r s t s t e p i s i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of the f u e l t y p e s which the l o c a l p e o p l e most p r e f e r t o use or t o have p r o v i d e d t o them. An energy system must then be d e v e l o p e d , which can c o n v e r t renewable and new energy s o u r c e s i n t o a form t h a t meets l o c a l needs and p r e f e r e n c e s . In the case of N i g e r i a , and on the b a s i s of t h i s r e s e a r c h , h ouseholds can be s t be s e r v e d t h r o u g h the c o n v e r s i o n of renewable energy s o u r c e s i n t o e l e c t r i c i t y . Mechanisms s h o u l d then be sought t o de c r e a s e the c o s t of such t e c h n o l o g y . I f th e s e s t e p s a r e f o l l o w e d , t h e r e w i l l be l i t t l e d i f f i c u l t y i n g a i n i n g the p e o p l e ' s a c c e p t a n c e of the proposed new energy a l t e r n a t i v e , w h i l e embracing elements of r e n e w a b i l i t y and e n v i r o n m e n t a l modesty. Low c o s t d e s i g n s , s u b s i d i e s , and l o a n s c o u l d be p r o v i d e d t o a i d low income ho u s e h o l d s s e e k i n g a c c e s s t o the a l t e r n a t i v e energy system which the l o c a l p e o p l e most p r e f e r t o have p r o v i d e d t o them. R e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of new energy systems w i t h i n N i g e r i a as a means of r e d u c i n g p e t r o l e u m consumption and' c o n s e r v i n g r a p i d l y d e p l e t i n g f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s s h o u l d u l t i m a t e l y l i e w i t h the government, and s h o u l d not be r e l e g a t e d t o i n t e r n a t i o n a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s or a g e n c i e s , who a r e f o r c e d t o t r e a d the f i n e l i n e between a i d and i n t e r f e r e n c e , between l o c a l i n t e r e s t s and s e l f i n t e r e s t . W h i l e N i g e r i a may r e l y on e x t e r n a l s o u r c e s f o r s c i e n t i f i c and t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e , the impetus f o r change s h o u l d come from w i t h i n . The government s h o u l d respond t o l o c a l needs and d e s i r e s , a l l o c a t e t h e n e c e s s a r y funds t o the development and e s t a b l i s h m e n t of new energy s u p p l y systems, and 303 commit i t s e l f t o t h e i r o p e r a t i o n . New energy s u p p l y p o l i c i e s s h o u l d be made an i n t e g r a l p a r t of the n a t i o n a l s o c i o - e c o n o m i c development program, so as t o ensure t h a t new energy t e c h n o l o g i e s b e i n g d e v e l o p e d a r e a p p r o p r i a t e t o the energy d e l i v e r y i n f r a s t r u c t u r e of the a r e a s b e i n g t r a n s f o r m e d . U n t i l new energy systems a r e i n p l a c e , improved wood s t o v e s t h a t meet both energy and non-energy demands s h o u l d be i n t r o d u c e d . Mass media campaigns must be und e r t a k e n t o educate the p u b l i c c o n c e r n i n g the need f o r r e f o r e s t a t i o n and energy c o n s e r v a t i o n measures. In s t r e s s i n g t h a t new energy o p t i o n s f o r domesti c use must c e n t r e on the needs as p e r c e i v e d by the l o c a l p e o p l e , we do not mean t o i m p l y t h a t needs and v a l u e s a r e unchanging. W i t h a p p r o p r i a t e a d j u s t m e n t s , the n e e d - d r i v e n approach can be used t o m o n i t o r s o c i o - e c o n o m i c changes and gear energy s u p p l y systems i n t h a t d i r e c t i o n . I f f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h i s t o stem from the r e s u l t s of t h i s s t u d y , one might proceed by i n v e s t i g a t i n g the r e l a t i v e i n t e n s i t y of t h e ' v a r i o u s s o c i o - e c o n o m i c f a c t o r s \" g o v e r n i n g N i g e r i a n h o u s e h o l d s e x i s t i n g c h o i c e s and p r e f e r e n c e s f o r c e r t a i n f u e l t y p e s . T h i s might be a c c o m p l i s h e d t h r o u g h m o d i f y i n g , then a p p l y i n g , e x i s t i n g s o c i a l e v a l u a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s such as P l a n n i n g B a l a n c e Sheet A n a l y s i s ( L i c h f i e l d , 1960) and the G o a l s Achievement M a t r i x t e c h n i q u e ( H i l l , 1968). These methods may be used t o d e t e r m i n e the i n t r i n s i c q u a l i t i e s of energy s u p p l y o p t i o n s one wishes t o promote. For example, the P l a n n i n g B a l a n c e Sheet A n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e can be m o d i f i e d and a p p l i e d as f o l l o w s . F i r s t , i d e n t i f y t he v a r i o u s t y p e s of energy c u r r e n t l y 304 a v a i l a b l e t o h o u s e h o l d s , both t r a d i t i o n a l and n o n t r a d i t i o n a l energy s o u r c e s . S e c o n d l y , the f a c t o r s which govern the c h o i c e and p r e f e r e n c e of e x i s t i n g f u e l t y p e s f o r i n d i v i d u a l domestic c h o r e s s h o u l d be i d e n t i f i e d . A s c a l e must then be e s t a b l i s h e d , on which households a r e asked t o r a t e the l e v e l of each f a c t o r i d e n t i f i e d i n s t e p two. T h i s s c a l e might c o n s i s t of t e n l e v e l s , w i t h z e r o s i g n i f y i n g no importance and t e n r e p r e s e n t i n g the g r e a t e s t i m p o r t a n c e . F i n a l l y , f r e q u e n c y a n a l y s i s and t e s t s of s i g n i f i c a n c e s h o u l d be c o n d u c t e d , t h r o u g h the a i d of an a p p r o p r i a t e computer program. P l a n n i n g B a l a n c e Sheet A n a l y s i s b r i n g s both t a n g i b l e and i n t a n g i b l e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s i n t o the e v a l u a t i o n p r o c e s s , and i t may be p o s s i b l e t o i d e n t i f v f a c t o r s which households can t r a d e - o f f f o r more i m p o r t a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . Use of t h i s t e c h n i q u e w i l l e n a b l e r e s e a r c h e r s t o f o c u s on the v a r i o u s f a c t o r s i n v o l v e d on a p r i o r i t y b a s i s . S o c i a l e v a l u a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s were not a p p l i e d i n t h i s s t u d y because t h e r e was no p r i o r u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the f a c t o r s on which households i n t h e s t u d y a r e a base t h e i r c u r r e n t c h o i c e s and p r e f e r e n c e s . Such a n a l y s i s by f u t u r e r e s e a r c h e r s c o u l d be used t o v e r i f y the p e r c e i v e d importance of i n t r i n s i c f a c t o r s i n c u r r e n t f u e l c h o i c e s and p r e f e r e n c e s . I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o c a u t i o n t h a t where new energy r e s o u r c e s u p p l y t e c h n o l o g i e s a r e t o be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o such a n a l y s i s , the i n v e s t i g a t i o n s h o u l d be c a r r i e d out i n a r e a s where the new t e c h n o l o g y has been i n t r o d u c e d and h o u s e h o l d s a r e knowledgeable c o n c e r n i n g the b e n e f i t s and c o s t s t h a t such systems o f f e r . 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Number o f h o u s e h o l d members employed i n v a r i o u s employment s e c t o r . 1 . 2. P u b l i c Income g r a d e l e v e l s P r i v a t e Agency 3. S e l f employed 4. Unemployed T o t a l m o n t h l y income o f t h e h o u s e h o l d , from a l l s o u r c e s : D i r e c t m o n t h l y income 1 _2. I n d i r e c t m o n t h l y income 3. T o t a l income (1) T y p e s o f h o u s e h o l d f u e l s u s e d i n o r d e r o f f r e q u e n c y f o r c o o k i n g . OFTEN OCCASIONALLY NEVER FUEL 1 . F i r e w o o d 2. C h a r c o a l 3. K e r o s e n e 4. Gas 5. Straw 6. A n i m a l dung 7. G a s o l i n e 8. E l e c t r i c i t y 9. C o a l 10. Sawdust 11 . O t h e r ( D ; ( 2 ) ; 12-13 ( D ; 14-15 16-19 17-79 6-7 321 322 C.C 2.2 Types of h o u s e h o l d f u e l s used i n o r d e r of fr e q u e n c y f o r water h e a t i n g . FUEL OFTEN OCCASIONALLY NEVER 1. F i r e w o o d 2. C h a r c o a l 3. Kerosene 4. Gas 5. Straw 6. Anim a l dung 7. G a s o l i n e 8. E l e c t r i c i t y 9. C o a l 10. Sawdust 11 . Other ( 2 ) ; 7-72 2.3 Types of h o u s e h o l d f u e l s used i n o r d e r of f r e q u e n c y f o r foo d p r e s e r v a t i o n . OFTEN OCCASIONALLY NEVER FUEL 1 . Fuelwood 2. C h a r c o a l 3. Kerosene 4. Gas 5. Straw 6. Anim a l dung 7. G a s o l i n e 8. E l e c t r i c i t y 9. C o a l 10. Sawdust 11 . Other ( 2 ) ; 73-78 ( 3 ) ; 6-63 2.4 Type of h o u s e h o l d f u e l s used i n o r d e r of fr e q u e n c y f o r home l i g h t i n g . OFTEN OCCASIONALLY NEVER FUEL 1 . Fi r e w o o d 2. C h a r c o a l 3. Kerosene 4. Gas 5. Straw 6. Anim a l dung 7. G a s o l i n e 8. E l e c t r i c i t y 9. C o a l 10. Sawdust 11 . Other (3) ; 64-79 (4) ; 6-55 323 CC 2.5 Type of h o u s e h o l d f u e l used most f r e q u e n t l y f o r meeting each of the f o l l o w i n g needs: 1. Cooking 2. Home l i g h t i n g 3. I r o n i n g U ) ; 56-57 4. D r y i n g C l o t h e s 5. Water h e a t i n g 6. Food p r e s e r v a t i o n 3.1 T o t a l monthly amounts of f u e l s consumed by h o u s e h o l d f o r c o o k i n g needs. 1. Fi r e w o o d 2. C h a r c o a l 3. Sawdust 4. Straw 5. C o a l 6. Kerosene 7. E l e c t r i c i t y 8. Gas 9. Ani m a l dunq (kg) (kg) (kg) (kg) (kg) ( 4 ) ; 58-78 ( l i t r e s ) ( 5 ) ; 6-21 (kwh) (kg) (kg) 3.2 T o t a l monthly amounts of f u e l s consumed by h o u s e h o l d s f o r water h e a t i n g needs. 1. Fi r e w o o d 2. C h a r c o a l 3. Sawdust 4. Straw 5. C o a l 6. Kerosene 7. E l e c t r i c i t v 8. Gas 9. Ani m a l dunq (kg) (kg) (kg) (kg) ( 5 ) ; 22-57 (kg) ( l i t r e s ) (kwh) (kg) (kg) 3.3 T o t a l monthly amounts of f u e l s consumed by hous e h o l d s f o r home l i g h t i n g needs. 1. E l e c t r i c i t y (kwh) 2. Kerosene ( L i t r e s ) ( 5 ) ; 58-69 3. Gas (kg) 3.4 T o t a l monthly amounts of f u e l s consumed by h o u s e h o l d f o r i r o n i n g 1. E l e c t r i c i t y (kwh) ( 5 ) ; 70-77 2. C h a r c o a l (kg) 324 CC, 3.5 E l e c t r i c a p p l i a n c e s used by h o u s e h o l d . Types of A p p l i a n c e s No. of A p p l i a n c e s 1. I r o n : S m a l l Medium K e t t l e : ] S m a l l Medium 2. Cooker: 4 - p l a t e w i t h oven. S i n g l e - p l a t e oven. 3. C o o l i n g : T a b l e Fan S t a n d i n g Fan C e i l i n g Fan S m a l l A i r -C o n d i t i o n e r Medium A i r -C o n d i t i o n e r 4. R e f r i g e r a t o r : S m a l l Medium Large E n t e r t a i n m e n t : T r a n s i s t o r R adio _ S t e r e o System _ B l a c k & White T.V. _ C o l o u r T.V. Average Amount of time used per day ( m i n u t e s / h r s . ) 4.1 F u e l type used most f r e q u e n t l y by h o u s e h o l d f o r c o o k i n g . ( 6 ) ; 6-7 Reasons f o r t h e c h o i c e of f u e l 1 . 2. ( 6 ) ; 8-13 3. 325 0 • 0« 4.2 F u e l type used most f r e q u e n t l y by h o u s e h o l d f o r water h e a t i n g . ( 6 ) ; 14-15 Reasons f o r the c h o i c e of f u e l . 1 . 2. ( 6 ) ; 16-21 3. 4.3 F u e l type used most f r e q u e n t l y by h o u s e h o l d f o r home l i g h t i n g . ( 6 ) ; 22-23 Reasons f o r the c h o i c e of f u e l . 1 . 2. ( 6 ) ; 24-29 3. 4.4 F u e l type used most f r e q u e n t l y by h o u s e h o l d f o r food p r e s e r v a t i o n . ( 6 ) ; 30-31 Reasons f o r the c h o i c e of f u e l . 1 . 2. ; ( 6 ) ; 32-37 3. 5.1 T o t a l monthly amounts of f u e l s consumed by h o u s e h o l d on the a v e r a g e . (kg) (kg) ( l i t r e s ) (kg) ( l i t r e s ) ( 6 ) ; 38-77 (kg) ( 7 ) ; 6-16 (kg) 1. Fir e w o o d 2. C h a r c o a l 3. Kerosene 4. Gas 5. G a s o l i n e 6. C o a l 7. Sawdust 8. Straw 9. Animal dunq 10. E l e c t r i c i t y (kg) (kg) (kwh) 5.2 T o t a l monthly f i n a n c i a l e x p e n d i t u r e , on the a v e r a g e , on f u e l s by h o u s e h o l d . NAIRA FUEL 1 . Kerosene 2. Gas 3. G a s o l i n e 4. E l e c t r i c i t y 5. F i r e w o o d 6. C h a r c o a l 7. C o a l 8. Ani m a l dung 9. Straw 10. Candles ( 7 ) ; 19-46 326 C.C. 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 7.0 S u b s t i t u t e f u e l s used by h o u s e h o l d when i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o o b t a i n the f u e l used most f r e q u e n t l y f o r c o o k i n g . 1 s t c h o i c e 2nd c h o i c e 3rd c h o i c e ( 7 ) ; 47-52 S u b s t i t u t e f u e l s used by h o u s e h o l d when i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o o b t a i n the f u e l used most f r e q u e n t l y f o r home l i g h t i n g . 1 s t c h o i c e 2nd c h o i c e 3rd c h o i c e ( 7 ) ; 53-58 S u b s t i t u t e f u e l s used by h o u s e h o l d when i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o o b t a i n the f u e l used m o s t . f r e q u e n t l y f o r foo d p r e s e r v a t i o n . 1 s t c h o i c e 2nd c h o i c e 3 r d c h o i c e ( 7 ) ; 59-64 S u b s t i t u t e f u e l s used by h o u s e h o l d when i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o o b t a i n the f u e l used most f r e q u e n t l y f o r water h e a t i n g . 1 s t c n o i c e 2nd c h o i c e 3 r d c h o i c e ( 7 ) ; 65-70 Thi n g s i n v o l v e d i n the use of the f o l l o w i n g f u e l s which t h e h o u s e h o l d does not l i k e . Kerosene Gas G a s o l i n e E l e c t r i c i t y F i r e w o o d ( 7 ) ; 71-76 (7) ; 77-80 (8) ; 6-7 ( 8 ) ; 8-13 ( 8 ) ; 14-19 ( 8 ) ; 20-25 327 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 C h a r c o a l C o a l A n i m a l Dung Sawdust Straw F u e l type which the h o u s e h o l d would most p r e f e r t o use f o r c o o k i n g Reasons f o r the c h o i c e of f u e l 1 . 2. 3. F u e l type which the h o u s e h o l d would most p r e f e r t o use f o r home l i g h t i n g Reasons f o r t h e c h o i c e of f u e l 1 . 2. 3. F u e l type which the h o u s e h o l d would most p r e f e r t o use f o r water h e a t i n g Reasons f o r t h e c h o i c e of f u e l 1 . 2. 3. F u e l type which the h o u s e h o l d would most p r e f e r t o use f o r food p r e s e r v a t i o n Reasons f o r the c h o i c e of f u e l 1 . . 2. 3. CC. ( 8 ) ; 26-31 ( 8 ) ; 32-37 ( 8 ) ; 38-43 ( 8 ) ; 44-49 ( 8 ) ; 50-55 ( 8 ) ; 56-57 ( 8 ) ; 58-63 ( 8 ) ; 64-65 ( 8 ) ; 66-71 ( 8 ) ; 72-73 (8) ; 74-79 (9) ; 6-7 ( 9 ) ; 8-13 328 CC. 8.5 F u e l t y p e s which the h o u s e h o l d would l i k e t o see p r o v i d e d i n o r d e r of p r e f e r e n c e s 1 s t c h o i c e 2nd c h o i c e (9); 14-21 3r d c h o i c e 4 t h c h o i c e 9.1 L o c a t i o n of h o u s e h o l d 1. Urban c e n t r e 2. R u r a l town (9); 22 23 3. V i l l a g e 9.2 Region of Study. 1. N o r t h e r n Region (9); 24-25 2. Southern Region 9.3 Name of Study A r e a . 1. Kaduna 2. K a c h i a 3. Idon (9); 26-27 4. O w e r r i 5. O r l u 6. Mdiukwu I n t e r v i e w Remarks: DEFINITION OF TERMS A l t e r n a t e New Energy R e s o u r c e s : These i n c l u d e a wide range of new energy r e s o u r c e s and energy c o n v e r s i o n systems which a r e t e c h n i c a l l y f e a s i b l e , but may or may not be e c o n o m i c a l l y f e a s i b l e under c u r r e n t economic c o n d i t i o n s . These i n c l u d e o i l s h a l e , o i l sands, s o l a r c o o k e r s , s o l a r power, wind power, wa v e / t i d e power, geothermal energy, new t e c h i q u e s of biomass c o n v e r s i o n , b i o g a s , e t c . A P I : API i s a s c a l e t h a t p r o v i d e s a rough e s t i m a t e of the q u a l i t y of p e t r o l e u m , i n which l i g h t e r f r a c t i o n s r a t e more h i g h l y than do heavy f r a c t i o n s . 10°API c o r r e s p o n d s t o a s p e c i f i c g r a v i t y of 1000 ( e q u a l t o t h a t of water a t 6 0 0 F } ; 25.7°API c o r r e s p o n d s t o 0.90 s p e c i f i c g r a v i t y ; 45.4°API t o 0.80; 70.6°API t o 0.70 and 104.3°API t o 0.60. E c o n o m i c a l l y R e c o v e r a b l e Energy R e s o u r c e s : The p o r t i o n of t o t a l known r e s e r v e s c o n s i d e r e d t o a c t u a l l y be r e c o v e r a b l e u s i n g c u r r e n t t e c h n o l o g y and under c u r r e n t economic c o n d i t i o n s . Energy: The c a p a c i t y t o do work. The s t a n d a r d i n t e r n a t i o n a l u n i t of energy i s j o u l e . Energy C o n s e r v a t i o n : R e f e r s t o the s t r a t e g y of a d j u s t i n g and o p t i m i z i n g energy, u s i n g systems and p r o c e d u r e s which reduce energy r e q u i r e m e n t s per u n i t of o u t p u t , w i t h o u t a f f e c t i n g s o c i o - e c o n o m i c developments. Energy R e s e r v e s : E s t i m a t e d q u a n t i t i e s of energy commodities i n p l a c e , based on s p e c i f i c sample d a t a , measurements of s p e c i f i c d e p o s i t s or f u e l - b e a r i n g b o d i e s , and d e t a i l e d knowledge of the grade or q u a l i t y of the d e p o s i t s , i n c l u d i n g t h a t p a r t of t h e t o t a l d e p o s i t s n o r m a l l y r e m a i n i n g i n the ground or r e s e r v o i r due t o e x t r a c t i o n r e q u i r e m e n t s . Energy R e s o u r c e s : Known r e s e r v e s i n p l a c e , p l u s a d d i t i o n a l i n d i c a t e d and i n f e r r e d r e s o u r c e s which may e x i s t i n u n e x p l o r e d e x t e n s i o n s of known d e p o s i t s or f u e l - b e a r i n g b o d i e s , or i n u n d i s c o v e r e d d e p o s i t s i n known f u e l - b e a r i n g a r e a s . FAO: Food and A g r i c u l t u r a l O r g a n i z a t i o n of the U n i t e d N a t i o n s . I d e n t i f i e d Energy R e s o u r c e s : S p e c i f i c b o d i e s of f u e l - b e a r i n g b o d i e s whose l o c a t i o n , q u a l i t y and q u a n t i t y a r e known from g e o l o g i c a l and s c i e n t i f i c e v i d e n c e t o t h e demonstrated c a t e g o r y . IEA: I n t e r n a t i o n a l Energy Agency. IIASA: I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r A p p l i e d Systems A n a l y s i s . 329 330 I n d i c a t e d Energy Reserves or R e s o u r c e s : Energy r e s e r v e s or r e s o u r c e s f o r which q u a n t i t y and grade or q u a l i t y a r e computed p a r t l y from s p e c i f i c measurements, samples, or p r o d u c t i o n d a t a , and p a r t l y from p r o j e c t i o n f o r measurable d i s t a n c e s on g e o l o g i c / s c i e n t i f i c e v i d e n c e . I n f e r r e d Energy Reserves or R e s o u r c e s : Reserves or r e s o u r c e s f o r which q u a n t i t a t i v e e s t i m a t e s a r e based l a r g e l y on broad knowledge of the g e o l o g i c / s c i e n t i f i c c h a r a c t e r of the d e p o s i t or body and f o r which t h e r e a r e few, i f any, samples or measurements. LNG: L i q u e f i e d N a t u r a l Gas, n a t u r a l gas t h a t has been l i q u e f i e d by c o m p r e s s i o n accompanied by c o o l i n g f o r purposes of s t o r a g e and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . LPG: L i q u e f i e d P e t r o l e u m Gas, n a t u r a l gas t h a t has been e x t r a c t e d t h r o u g h the p r o c e s s of b r e a k i n g down crude p e t r o l e u m o i l i n the r e f i n e r y . Mbdoe: M i l l i o n b a r r e l s per day of o i l e q u i v a l e n t . NOIDC: Net O i l I m p o r t i n g D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s . Nonrenewable Energy R e s o u r c e s : Those which a r e used up i n the p r o c e s s of b e i n g produced or c o n v e r t e d , and which cannot be r e p l a c e d by n a t u r a l p r o c e s s e s . N o n t r a d i t i o n a l Energy: T h i s term i s used i n t e r c h a n g e a b l y w i t h \"non-commercial\" s o u r c e s of energy, and i n c l u d e s p e t r o l e u m based energy p r o d u c t s , e l e c t r i c i t y , gas, and c o a l . P r o d u c t i o n , s a l e , and consumption of t h e s e energy r e s o u r c e s i s n o r m a l l y embodied i n government commercial a c c o u n t i n g r e c o r d s . OECD: O r g a n i z a t i o n f o r Economic C o - o p e r a t i o n and Development. Members i n c l u d e i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s w i t h i n A m e r i c a , non-communist Europe, and Japan. OPEC: O r g a n i z a t i o n of P e t r o l e u m E x p o r t i n g C o u n t r i e s , which i n c l u d e s A l g e r i a , Equador, Gabon, I n d o n e s i a , I r a n , I r a q , K u w a i t , L i b y a , N i g e r i a , Q a t a r , Saudi A r a b i a , U n i t e d Arab E m i r a t e s (Abu D h a b i , D u b a i , and S h a r j a h ) , V e n e z u e l a . Power: Energy per u n i t of t i m e , or the r a t e of d o i n g work. The s t a n d a r d i n t e r n a t i o n a l u n i t of power i s the Watt, d e f i n e d as one j o u l e per second. Renewable Energy R e s o u r c e s : Resources r e s t o r e d t h r o u g h n a t u r a l p r o c e s s e s , or whose renewable p r o c e s s can be adapted and i n f l u e n c e d by man. 3 3 1 T r a d i t i o n a l Energy: The term i s used i n t e r c h a n g e a b l y w i t h \"non-c o m m e r c i a l \" s o u r c e s of energy. These i n c l u d e d i v e r s e t y p e s of f u e l , such as fuelwood, c h a r c o a l , c r o p r e s i d u e s and a n i m a l dung. Some of the f u e l s i n the t r a d i t i o n a l or noncommercial energy c a t e g o r y a r e o f t e n p u r c h a s e d i n l o c a l markets or i n v o l v e t r a n s a c t i o n s , but t h e s e commercial a c t i v i t i e s a r e u s u a l l y e x c l u d e d from government commercial a c c o u n t i n g r e c o r d s . WAES: Workshop on A l t e r n a t i v e Energy S t r a t e g i e s . Members come from energy-consuming n a t i o n s o u t s i d e the communist w o r l d . WEC: World Energy C o n f e r e n c e . CONVERSION FACTORS FOR COMMON ENERGY AND POWER UNITS U n i t of Energy J o u l e To Convert K i l o c a l o r i e To: K i l o w a t t B r i t i s h Thermal U n i t M u l t i l y By: J o u l e 1 2.389x10\" 4 0.278x10\" 6 0.948x10- 3 K i l o c a l o r i e 4186 1 1 .1618x10 - 3 3.9685 K i l o w a t t Hour 3.6x10 6 860.5 1 3.412x10 3 B r i t i s h Thermal U n i t 1.055x10 3 0.252 0.293x10\" 3 1 U n i t of Power Watt To Convert K i l o c a l o r i e / M i n u t e To: Horse-power B r i t i s h Thermal U n i t / M i n u t e M u l t i l y By: Watt 1 1 .433x10- 2 1 .341x10' 3 5.688x10- 2 K i l o c a l o r i e / M i n u t e 69.783 1 9.351x10\" 2 3.9865 Horsepower 0.746x10 3 10.68 1 42.44 B r i t i s h Thermal U n i t / M i n 17.58 0.252 2.356x10\" 2 1 Approximate Thermal E q u i v a l e n t s A l l heat i s measured i n j o u l e s ( J ) and t h e i r m u l t i p l e s a r e : k i l o j o u l e s (KJ = 1 0 3 J 5 ; megajoules (MJ = 1 0 6 J } ; g i g a j o u l e s (GJ = 10 9J> ; t e r a j o u l e s (TJ = 1 0 1 2 J > ; and p e t a j o u l e s ( P J = 1 0 1 5 J } Sometimes heat i s g i v e n i n B r i t i s h t h e r m a l u n i t s (BTU), where 1 BTU = 1055J and 3413 BTUs = 1 k i l o w a t t hour (kwh). One tonne r e p r e s e n t s one m e t r i c t o n , of 22.04.6 pounds. 332 333 C o a l : 1 tonne c o a l 1 tonne c o a l 1 tonne l i g n i t e O i l : 1 tonne crude o i l 1 tonne crude o i l 1 Mbdoe 1 Mbdoe N a t u r a l Gas: 1000 c u b i c metres 1000 c u b i c f e e t E l e c t r i c i t y : 1 k i l o w a t t hour (kWh) F i r e w o o d : 1 k i l o g r a m Twigs and S t r a w s : 1 k i l o g r a m Dung Cake: 1 k i l o g r a m L i q u e f i e d P e t r o l e u m Gas (LPG): 1.85 kg Kerosene: 1.27 l i t r e s 29.3 x 1 0 9 J (U.N. c o n v e r s i o n ) 26.4 x 1 0 9 J (U.K. c o n v e r s i o n ) 16.0 x 1 0 9 J 44.0 x 1 0 9 J 7.3 b a r r e l s crude o i l 1.0 m i l l i o n b a r r e l s per day of o i l e q u i v a l e n t 50.0 m i l l i o n tonne o i l per year 28.2 x 1 0 9 J 1 .08 x 1 0 9 J 3.6 x 1 0 6 J 15 x 1 0 6 J 15 x 1 0 6 J 10 x 1 0 6 J 45.2 x 1 0 6 J 35.1 x 1 0 6 J 334 J e t Turbo: 1 .34 l i t r e s 35. 1 x 1 0 6 J A v i a t i o n Gas: 1 .40 kg 35. 1 x 1 0 6 J R e g u l a r G a s o l i n e : 1 .40 l i t r e s 35. 1 x 1 0 6 J Premium G a s o l i n e : 1.36 l i t r e s 35.1 x 1 0 6 J Average G a s o l i n e : 1.384 l i t r e s 34.4 x 1 0 6 J Auto D i e s e l : 1.19 l i t r e s 38.7 x 1 0 6 J Heavy D i e s e l : 1.177 l i t r e s or kg 39.2 x 1 0 6 J F u e l O i l : 1.06 l i t r e s 40.6 t o 42.0 x 1 0 6 J Average E f f i c i e n c y of U t i l i z a t i o n o f C o o k i n g F u e l s F u e l E f f i c i e n c y U t i l i z e d Energy (%) (Mj/kg. L i q u e f i e d P e t r o l e u m 63 27.7 Gas (LPG) Kerosene i n p r e s s u r e s t o v e 56 24.3 i n wick s t o v e 42 18.0 S o f t Coke 10.0 4.0 C o a l 10.0 2.7 C h a r c o a l 16.0 4.8 F u e l Ef f i c i e n c y (%) U t i l i z e d Energy (Mj/kg) F i r e w o o d i n c l o s e d h e a r t h s t o v e 16 2.6 i n open h e a r t h s t o v e 13 1 .9 Twigs and Straws i n c l o s e d h e a r t h s t o v e 16 1.6 i n open h e a r t h s t o v e 13 1.3 Dung Cake 8 0.8 S o u r c e s : D u n k e r l e y , J o y , Gunnar Knapp and Sandra G l a t t . 1981. A f f e c t i n g the C o m p o s i t i o n of Energy Use i n D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s . Washington D.C: Resources f o r the F u t u r e , pp. 55. Eden. R i c h a r d e t a l . , 1981. Energy Economics, Growth, Resources and P o l i t i c s . Cambridge: Cambridge U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , pp. 416-418. N a t i o n a l C o u n c i l of A p p l i e d Economic R e s e a r c h , 1975. Energy Demand i n G r e a t e r Bombay. New D e h l i . pp. 82. S c h i p p e r , Lee, e t a l . , 1982. Energy C o n s e r v a t i o n i n Kenya's Modern S e c t o r . P r o g r e s s . P o t e n t i a l and Problems. Washington, D.C: Resources f o r the F u t u r e . Pp. 74-75. "@en ; edm:hasType "Thesis/Dissertation"@en ; edm:isShownAt "10.14288/1.0097340"@en ; dcterms:language "eng"@en ; ns0:degreeDiscipline "Planning"@en ; edm:provider "Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library"@en ; dcterms:publisher "University of British Columbia"@en ; dcterms:rights "For non-commercial purposes only, such as research, private study and education. Additional conditions apply, see Terms of Use https://open.library.ubc.ca/terms_of_use."@en ; ns0:scholarLevel "Graduate"@en ; dcterms:title "Policy options for the developing world's domestic energy supply : patterns and preferences in the Nigerian domestic sector"@en ; dcterms:type "Text"@en ; ns0:identifierURI "http://hdl.handle.net/2429/27177"@en .