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The New NDP : Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing [Book Supplement] McGrane, David 2019

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1Web Appendix 1 Multinomial Logistical Regression Results for Chapter 6 Multinomial logistical regression results for sociodemographic variables, 2000–11 federal elections, ROC (Table 6.3, voted CPC is base outcome for all elections) 2000 federal election (1) (2)Variables Voted NDP Voted LPCAtlantic 0.686* -0.148(0.298) (0.202)West -0.0911 -1.006***(0.255) (0.165)Female 0.785*** 0.363*(0.225) (0.151)Under 35 -0.135 0.0137(0.290) (0.202)Over 54 -0.0144 0.203(0.314) (0.179)Visible minority 0.432 1.822***(0.595) (0.378)Catholic 0.640* 0.985***(0.276) (0.176)No religion 1.647*** 0.640**(0.276) (0.220)Dropout 0.654 0.0989(0.377) (0.214)University graduate 0.408 0.123(0.248) (0.176)Union member 0.437 0.280(0.241) (0.165)Constant -2.699*** -0.616**(0.302) (0.201)Observations 1,174 1,174Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05 2004 federal election (1) (2)Variables Voted NDP Voted LPCAtlantic 0.424 0.404(0.277) (0.222)West -0.219 -0.882***(0.171) (0.143)Female 0.306 0.0792(0.163) (0.135)Under 35 0.453* -0.0443(0.209) (0.194)Over 54 -0.427* 0.119(0.199) (0.157)Visible minority 0.672* 1.127***(0.334) (0.271)"The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 2Catholic 0.433* 0.716***  (0.205) (0.158) No religion 0.993*** 0.311  (0.195) (0.187) Dropout 0.644** 0.0306  (0.246) (0.199) University graduate 0.0281 0.272  (0.185) (0.153) Union member 0.741*** 0.254  (0.181) (0.164) Constant -1.418*** -0.294  (0.221) (0.179)    Observations 1,523 1,523 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2006 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.623* 0.378  (0.251) (0.210) West -0.190 -1.019***  (0.157) (0.144) Female 0.455** 0.292*  (0.152) (0.137) Under 35 0.233 0.304  (0.241) (0.220) Over 54 0.0973 0.317*  (0.167) (0.154) Visible minority 0.466 1.316***  (0.292) (0.237) Catholic 0.225 0.416**  (0.183) (0.159) No religion 1.086*** 0.650***  (0.182) (0.183) Dropout -0.280 -0.549*  (0.243) (0.219) University graduate 0.261 0.345*  (0.158) (0.149) Union member 0.608*** 0.0248  (0.165) (0.165) Constant -1.616*** -0.736***  (0.212) (0.191)    Observations 1,696 1,696 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2008 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.812*** 0.649*** "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 3 (0.206) (0.185) West -0.0786 -1.011***  (0.152) (0.147) Female 0.442** 0.134  (0.140) (0.129) Under 35 0.348 -0.236  (0.216) (0.217) Over 54 -0.0268 0.208  (0.157) (0.146) Visible minority 0.537* 0.846***  (0.267) (0.229) Catholic 0.337 0.534***  (0.175) (0.154) No religion 1.242*** 1.117***  (0.175) (0.176) Dropout 0.619** 0.0251  (0.215) (0.216) University graduate 0.0975 0.709***  (0.155) (0.137) Union member 0.706*** 0.0131  (0.156) (0.157) Constant -1.950*** -1.155***  (0.200) (0.175)    Observations 1,770 1,770 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2011 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.477* 0.449*  (0.196) (0.190) West -0.246 -1.239***  (0.150) (0.179) Female 0.265 0.173  (0.136) (0.146) Under 35 0.0838 0.231  (0.259) (0.280) Over 54 0.187 0.595***  (0.149) (0.169) Visible minority 1.168*** 1.250***  (0.274) (0.324) Catholic 0.329* 0.260  (0.166) (0.170) No religion 1.071*** 0.907***  (0.175) (0.190) Dropout -0.0343 -0.339  (0.218) (0.241) University graduate 0.341* 0.724***  (0.146) (0.155) Union member 0.810*** 0.197  (0.146) (0.167) Constant -1.690*** -1.626***  (0.197) (0.218) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 4   Observations 1,702 1,702 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  Multinomial logistical regression results for underlying values variables, 2000–11 federal elections, ROC (Table 6.4, voted CPC is base outcome for all elections)  2000 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.724 0.106  (0.370) (0.247) West 0.187 -0.567**  (0.300) (0.192) Female 0.304 0.119  (0.244) (0.165) Under 35 -0.568 -0.311  (0.319) (0.217) Over 54 0.252 0.481*  (0.331) (0.193) Visible minority 0.984 2.043***  (0.636) (0.406) Catholic 0.770** 1.035***  (0.296) (0.195) No religion 1.256*** 0.433  (0.319) (0.231) Dropout 0.629 0.232  (0.408) (0.236) University graduate 0.163 -0.0766  (0.285) (0.188) Union member 0.0618 0.240  (0.271) (0.178) Accommodation of Quebec 0.434 -0.584  (0.647) (0.435) Continentalism -3.190*** -0.319  (0.864) (0.512) Market liberalism -4.151*** -2.084***  (0.753) (0.476) Moral traditionalism -4.708*** -3.044***  (0.798) (0.449) Political cynicism 0.176 -3.055***  (0.794) (0.463) Regional alienation -0.294 -0.744**  (0.439) (0.265) Constant 3.045*** 4.223***  (0.914) (0.599)    Observations 1,174 1,174 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2004 federal election  (1) (2) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 5Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.431 0.331  (0.318) (0.271) West 0.248 -0.551**  (0.223) (0.180) Female -0.134 -0.245  (0.190) (0.151) Under 35 -0.174 -0.633**  (0.242) (0.215) Over 54 -0.138 0.306  (0.226) (0.174) Visible minority 0.900* 1.225***  (0.389) (0.291) Catholic 0.342 0.651***  (0.242) (0.177) No religion 0.387 -0.0953  (0.216) (0.207) Dropout 0.925** 0.307  (0.298) (0.229) University graduate -0.220 -0.0235  (0.214) (0.171) Union member 0.467* 0.0680  (0.205) (0.178) Accommodation of Quebec 0.596 1.253**  (0.480) (0.407) Continentalism -3.555*** -3.181***  (0.500) (0.418) Market liberalism -3.299*** -1.387**  (0.601) (0.469) Moral traditionalism -4.225*** -1.983***  (0.485) (0.401) Political cynicism -0.240 -3.329***  (0.543) (0.456) Regional alienation -0.895** -0.711**  (0.307) (0.250) Constant 4.532*** 5.129***  (0.720) (0.595)    Observations 1,523 1,523 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2006 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.449 0.218  (0.289) (0.250) West -0.131 -0.999***  (0.195) (0.173) Female 0.243 0.190  (0.170) (0.154) Under 35 0.0543 0.106  (0.262) (0.241) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 6Over 54 0.372* 0.617***  (0.188) (0.174) Visible minority 0.599 1.314***  (0.341) (0.263) Catholic 0.283 0.498**  (0.203) (0.177) No religion 0.714*** 0.551**  (0.209) (0.199) Dropout -0.0664 -0.337  (0.284) (0.252) University graduate -0.0702 -0.0300  (0.175) (0.165) Union member 0.378* -0.127  (0.182) (0.181) Accommodation of Quebec 1.189* 0.106  (0.474) (0.419) Continentalism -3.205*** -2.978***  (0.511) (0.431) Market liberalism -3.784*** -2.328***  (0.582) (0.546) Moral traditionalism -4.020*** -2.686***  (0.516) (0.415) Political cynicism 0.603 -3.516***  (0.496) (0.457) Regional alienation 0.00477 -0.235  (0.274) (0.248) Constant 2.828*** 5.275***  (0.650) (0.581)    Observations 1,696 1,696 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2008 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.702** 0.564*  (0.254) (0.221) West 0.128 -0.845***  (0.172) (0.161) Female 0.124 -0.118  (0.160) (0.144) Under 35 0.193 -0.339  (0.244) (0.252) Over 54 -0.0796 0.202  (0.178) (0.158) Visible minority 0.783** 1.018***  (0.294) (0.253) Catholic 0.317 0.532**  (0.200) (0.173) No religion 0.776*** 0.792***  (0.204) (0.194) Dropout 0.756** 0.147  (0.252) (0.240) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 7University graduate 0.0392 0.679***  (0.175) (0.151) Union member 0.485** -0.185  (0.175) (0.171) Accommodation of Quebec 2.210*** 2.794***  (0.455) (0.424) Continentalism -3.574*** -3.176***  (0.525) (0.464) Market liberalism -3.787*** -2.200***  (0.463) (0.449) Moral traditionalism -2.947*** -2.252***  (0.472) (0.421) Political cynicism 3.130*** 2.027***  (0.521) (0.469) Regional alienation 0.669* 0.688**  (0.280) (0.252) Constant 0.105 -0.0138  (0.648) (0.599)    Observations 1,770 1,770 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2011 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.534* 0.520*  (0.239) (0.221) West 0.00301 -1.063***  (0.175) (0.187) Female -0.161 -0.134  (0.158) (0.161) Under 35 -0.0435 0.101  (0.296) (0.328) Over 54 0.254 0.645***  (0.168) (0.178) Visible minority 1.322*** 1.239***  (0.333) (0.341) Catholic 0.238 0.119  (0.198) (0.191) No religion 0.577** 0.481*  (0.194) (0.209) Dropout -0.0955 -0.386  (0.252) (0.267) University graduate 0.0503 0.453**  (0.164) (0.168) Union member 0.539** 0.0219  (0.168) (0.177) Accommodation of Quebec 2.307*** 3.183***  (0.456) (0.493) Continentalism -2.286*** -3.164***  (0.630) (0.649) Market Liberalism -4.102*** -1.500** "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 8 (0.506) (0.494) Moral Traditionalism -3.121*** -2.854***  (0.467) (0.471) Political Cynicism 2.869*** 3.044***  (0.529) (0.493) Regional Alienation 0.183 0.244  (0.311) (0.286) Constant 0.303 -1.002  (0.694) (0.709)    Observations 1,702 1,702 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  Multinomial logistical regression results for party identification variables, 2000–11 federal elections, ROC (Table 6.5, voted CPC is base outcome for all elections)  2000 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.930* 0.0773  (0.407) (0.272) West 0.456 -0.352  (0.351) (0.228) Female 0.153 0.0152  (0.289) (0.190) Under 35 -0.113 -0.0443  (0.364) (0.246) Over 54 0.0883 0.250  (0.401) (0.238) Visible minority 0.712 1.687***  (0.723) (0.495) Catholic 0.639 0.698**  (0.344) (0.223) No religion 0.967* 0.395  (0.393) (0.277) Dropout 0.442 0.128  (0.478) (0.259) University graduate 0.111 -0.0951  (0.356) (0.226) Union member -0.0440 -0.0423  (0.328) (0.216) Accommodation of Quebec 0.104 -1.267*  (0.827) (0.511) Continentalism -2.431* -0.0222  (1.187) (0.634) Market liberalism -2.298* -1.880**  (0.957) (0.581) Moral traditionalism -4.275*** -2.554***  (1.029) (0.543) Political cynicism 0.536 -2.222***  (0.972) (0.534) Regional alienation -0.0927 -0.398  (0.540) (0.318) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 9NDP ID 4.421*** 1.526  (0.803) (0.813) LPC ID 0.723 2.148***  (0.474) (0.282) CPC ID -2.468*** -2.572***  (0.641) (0.346) Constant 1.461 3.565***  (1.180) (0.716)    Observations 1,174 1,174 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2004 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.293 0.292  (0.372) (0.322) West 0.00344 -0.597**  (0.254) (0.223) Female -0.194 -0.262  (0.214) (0.181) Under 35 0.226 -0.640*  (0.271) (0.263) Over 54 0.00651 0.233  (0.259) (0.207) Visible minority 0.481 0.573  (0.419) (0.311) Catholic 0.392 0.387  (0.270) (0.216) No religion 0.324 -0.145  (0.257) (0.260) Dropout 0.585* 0.252  (0.291) (0.261) University graduate -0.0847 0.120  (0.251) (0.212) Union member 0.410 -0.0510  (0.242) (0.213) Accommodation of Quebec 0.622 1.264*  (0.551) (0.491) Continentalism -2.878*** -2.713***  (0.568) (0.510) Market liberalism -1.781** -0.812  (0.673) (0.591) Moral traditionalism -3.499*** -1.494**  (0.549) (0.469) Political cynicism -0.153 -2.491***  (0.594) (0.523) Regional alienation -0.742* -0.435  (0.351) (0.313) NDP ID 2.778*** 0.441  (0.399) (0.444) LPC ID 0.752* 2.366***  (0.327) (0.260) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 10CPC ID -2.351*** -2.306***  (0.335) (0.279) Constant 3.134*** 3.826***  (0.815) (0.698)    Observations 1,523 1,523 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2006 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.643 0.574  (0.339) (0.309) West -0.254 -0.925***  (0.230) (0.212) Female 0.453* 0.242  (0.202) (0.188) Under 35 0.392 0.540  (0.297) (0.279) Over 54 0.498* 0.747**  (0.235) (0.237) Visible minority 0.660 1.313***  (0.370) (0.357) Catholic 0.458 0.371  (0.238) (0.222) No religion 0.852** 0.726**  (0.262) (0.247) Dropout -0.239 -0.269  (0.311) (0.331) University graduate -0.110 -0.0652  (0.213) (0.208) Union member 0.240 -0.0917  (0.219) (0.226) Accommodation of Quebec 1.426** 0.343  (0.549) (0.518) Continentalism -2.473*** -2.522***  (0.604) (0.561) Market liberalism -1.814** -1.428*  (0.645) (0.652) Moral Traditionalism -3.188*** -2.652***  (0.599) (0.524) Political Cynicism 1.003 -1.790**  (0.606) (0.575) Regional Alienation 0.289 -0.301  (0.327) (0.313) NDP ID 3.365*** 1.590***  (0.403) (0.435) LPC ID 0.593* 2.168***  (0.257) (0.211) CPC ID -2.700*** -3.562***  (0.333) (0.571) Constant 0.562 3.113***  (0.794) (0.734) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 11   Observations 1,696 1,696 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2008 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.946** 1.103***  (0.304) (0.275) West 0.230 -0.374  (0.202) (0.198) Female 0.0654 -0.0487  (0.185) (0.172) Under 35 0.269 -0.0457  (0.291) (0.294) Over 54 0.151 0.494*  (0.214) (0.197) Visible minority 0.455 0.851**  (0.334) (0.295) Catholic 0.297 0.343  (0.229) (0.202) No religion 0.600* 0.822**  (0.250) (0.251) Dropout 0.0468 -0.234  (0.306) (0.304) University graduate -0.0448 0.633***  (0.205) (0.188) Union member 0.383 -0.0724  (0.214) (0.214) Accommodation of Quebec 1.546** 1.934***  (0.509) (0.497) Continentalism -2.930*** -2.441***  (0.622) (0.588) Market liberalism -2.432*** -1.462*  (0.572) (0.573) Moral traditionalism -1.331* -0.890  (0.546) (0.529) Political cynicism 1.908** 1.326*  (0.581) (0.581) Regional alienation 0.227 0.248  (0.344) (0.304) NDP ID 3.044*** 1.082*  (0.395) (0.447) LPC ID 0.645* 2.335***  (0.271) (0.225) CPC ID -2.314*** -2.557***  (0.268) (0.280) Constant -0.0320 -0.657  (0.764) (0.732)    Observations 1,770 1,770 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05 "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 12 2011 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.590* 0.852**  (0.277) (0.275) West 0.124 -0.865***  (0.225) (0.246) Female -0.269 -0.250  (0.194) (0.203) Under 35 -0.281 -0.151  (0.331) (0.373) Over 54 0.266 0.565*  (0.217) (0.236) Visible minority 1.379** 1.043*  (0.428) (0.452) Catholic 0.282 -0.0227  (0.247) (0.253) No religion 0.442 0.467  (0.243) (0.259) Dropout -0.140 -0.702*  (0.268) (0.323) University graduate 0.0842 0.454*  (0.215) (0.229) Union member 0.405 -0.0788  (0.214) (0.235) Accommodation of Quebec 1.005 1.841**  (0.528) (0.580) Continentalism -1.857* -2.726***  (0.744) (0.759) Market liberalism -2.804*** -1.341*  (0.631) (0.631) Moral traditionalism -2.028*** -1.667**  (0.557) (0.604) Political cynicism 1.991** 2.458***  (0.622) (0.627) Regional alienation 0.112 0.264  (0.379) (0.375) NDP ID 4.029*** 1.630*  (0.566) (0.677) LPC ID 1.087*** 2.641***  (0.258) (0.251) CPC ID -2.074*** -2.506***  (0.294) (0.362) Constant 0.445 -0.862  (0.847) (0.927)    Observations 1,702 1,702 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  Multinomial logistical regression results for economic perspective variables, 2000–11 federal elections, ROC (Table 6.6, voted CPC is base outcome for all elections)  "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 132000 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.937* 0.0708  (0.405) (0.269) West 0.473 -0.350  (0.365) (0.223) Female 0.164 0.0221  (0.291) (0.195) Under 35 -0.0212 -0.0940  (0.367) (0.247) Over 54 0.0604 0.273  (0.408) (0.237) Visible minority 0.822 1.675***  (0.721) (0.496) Catholic 0.645 0.688**  (0.340) (0.223) No religion 0.945* 0.389  (0.394) (0.278) Dropout 0.448 0.133  (0.472) (0.261) University graduate 0.110 -0.110  (0.357) (0.226) Union member -0.0552 -0.0440  (0.329) (0.215) Accommodation of Quebec 0.0607 -1.256*  (0.811) (0.513) Continentalism -2.420* -0.00845  (1.187) (0.634) Market liberalism -2.172* -1.984***  (0.965) (0.596) Moral traditionalism -4.397*** -2.490***  (0.991) (0.550) Political cynicism 0.486 -2.154***  (1.013) (0.561) Regional alienation -0.132 -0.373  (0.547) (0.317) NDP ID 4.452*** 1.523  (0.795) (0.819) LPC ID 0.714 2.154***  (0.489) (0.282) CPC ID -2.506*** -2.560***  (0.642) (0.347) National economy 0.261 -0.142  (0.505) (0.309) Personal finances -0.549 0.390  (0.471) (0.300) Constant 1.608 3.401***  (1.323) (0.802)    Observations 1,174 1,174 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 142004 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.280 0.295  (0.371) (0.325) West 0.00931 -0.606**  (0.252) (0.222) Female -0.223 -0.239  (0.219) (0.185) Under 35 0.245 -0.641*  (0.281) (0.269) Over 54 0.0205 0.225  (0.259) (0.206) Visible minority 0.468 0.582  (0.418) (0.311) Catholic 0.400 0.382  (0.272) (0.218) No religion 0.330 -0.150  (0.257) (0.261) Dropout 0.555 0.271  (0.297) (0.262) University graduate -0.0758 0.113  (0.253) (0.213) Union member 0.412 -0.0466  (0.243) (0.213) Accommodation of Quebec 0.616 1.261*  (0.552) (0.492) Continentalism -2.874*** -2.711***  (0.568) (0.510) Market liberalism -1.734* -0.841  (0.678) (0.594) Moral traditionalism -3.518*** -1.475**  (0.546) (0.467) Political cynicism -0.253 -2.434***  (0.610) (0.548) Regional alienation -0.746* -0.429  (0.349) (0.311) NDP ID 2.788*** 0.429  (0.399) (0.446) LPC ID 0.770* 2.353***  (0.328) (0.260) CPC ID -2.349*** -2.308***  (0.333) (0.281) National economy -0.206 0.158  (0.318) (0.277) Personal finances -0.0701 0.000171  (0.325) (0.275) Constant 3.316*** 3.713***  (0.827) (0.740)    Observations 1,523 1,523 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 152006 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.667* 0.618*  (0.335) (0.308) West -0.275 -1.058***  (0.229) (0.216) Female 0.450* 0.319  (0.204) (0.192) Under 35 0.372 0.590*  (0.294) (0.275) Over 54 0.571* 0.792***  (0.235) (0.240) Visible minority 0.655 1.306***  (0.374) (0.362) Catholic 0.455 0.398  (0.237) (0.224) No religion 0.871** 0.652**  (0.266) (0.247) Dropout -0.241 -0.172  (0.318) (0.340) University graduate -0.120 -0.131  (0.214) (0.211) Union member 0.226 -0.0857  (0.220) (0.231) Accommodation of Quebec 1.445** 0.396  (0.546) (0.516) Continentalism -2.437*** -2.476***  (0.599) (0.563) Market liberalism -1.930** -1.510*  (0.648) (0.646) Moral traditionalism -3.187*** -2.639***  (0.591) (0.529) Political cynicism 1.135 -1.296*  (0.621) (0.599) Regional alienation 0.319 -0.215  (0.331) (0.313) NDP ID 3.409*** 1.639***  (0.398) (0.434) LPC ID 0.574* 2.118***  (0.257) (0.212) CPC ID -2.735*** -3.558***  (0.338) (0.575) National economy -0.246 0.752*  (0.324) (0.320) Personal finances 0.540 0.611*  (0.316) (0.293) Constant 0.360 1.920*  (0.852) (0.813)    Observations 1,696 1,696 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 162008 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.987** 1.174***  (0.307) (0.279) West 0.278 -0.300  (0.206) (0.203) Female 0.0610 -0.0595  (0.185) (0.172) Under 35 0.302 0.00186  (0.290) (0.297) Over 54 0.129 0.470*  (0.218) (0.202) Visible minority 0.485 0.910**  (0.334) (0.297) Catholic 0.300 0.347  (0.228) (0.202) No religion 0.579* 0.792**  (0.252) (0.253) Dropout 0.0813 -0.174  (0.306) (0.305) University graduate -0.0479 0.629***  (0.205) (0.189) Union member 0.376 -0.0821  (0.215) (0.213) Accommodation of Quebec 1.523** 1.889***  (0.513) (0.504) Continentalism -2.892*** -2.395***  (0.621) (0.591) Market liberalism -2.429*** -1.443*  (0.572) (0.575) Moral traditionalism -1.317* -0.886  (0.548) (0.534) Political cynicism 1.767** 1.119  (0.592) (0.594) Regional alienation 0.169 0.161  (0.347) (0.311) NDP ID 3.028*** 1.060*  (0.393) (0.445) LPC ID 0.634* 2.322***  (0.271) (0.226) CPC ID -2.318*** -2.558***  (0.268) (0.280) National economy -0.270 -0.503  (0.275) (0.270) Personal finances -0.184 -0.182  (0.282) (0.275) Constant 0.215 -0.308  (0.811) (0.781)    Observations 1,770 1,770 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 172011 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.613* 0.864**  (0.279) (0.276) West 0.187 -0.833***  (0.227) (0.247) Female -0.399* -0.283  (0.201) (0.208) Under 35 -0.210 -0.115  (0.340) (0.376) Over 54 0.226 0.534*  (0.217) (0.236) Visible minority 1.265** 0.981*  (0.435) (0.457) Catholic 0.288 -0.000676  (0.248) (0.253) No religion 0.494* 0.494  (0.250) (0.261) Dropout -0.241 -0.736*  (0.272) (0.328) University graduate 0.165 0.446  (0.217) (0.229) Union member 0.396 -0.0924  (0.214) (0.235) Accommodation of Quebec 1.008 1.877**  (0.533) (0.581) Continentalism -1.643* -2.746***  (0.762) (0.780) Market liberalism -2.544*** -1.288*  (0.636) (0.638) Moral traditionalism -2.039*** -1.588**  (0.558) (0.611) Political cynicism 1.729** 2.432***  (0.643) (0.643) Regional alienation 0.0617 0.239  (0.385) (0.375) NDP ID 4.076*** 1.710*  (0.583) (0.689) LPC ID 1.073*** 2.638***  (0.260) (0.252) CPC ID -2.009*** -2.508***  (0.291) (0.363) National economy -0.542 0.0518  (0.299) (0.317) Personal finances -0.806* -0.298  (0.372) (0.366) Constant 1.097 -0.752  (0.904) (0.980)    Observations 1,702 1,702 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 18 Multinomial logistical regression results for issue position variables, 2000–11 federal elections, ROC (Table 6.7, voted CPC is base outcome for all elections)  2000 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 1.005* 0.0584  (0.426) (0.272) West 0.604 -0.291  (0.391) (0.228) Female 0.178 0.00950  (0.295) (0.199) Under 35 0.0191 -0.0744  (0.374) (0.250) Over 54 -0.281 0.197  (0.422) (0.251) Visible minority 0.696 1.557**  (0.734) (0.507) Catholic 0.724* 0.686**  (0.357) (0.226) No religion 0.761 0.270  (0.393) (0.292) Dropout 0.527 0.178  (0.507) (0.271) University graduate -0.0313 -0.129  (0.375) (0.240) Union member -0.125 -0.100  (0.346) (0.220) Accommodation of Quebec -0.298 -1.344*  (0.901) (0.546) Continentalism -2.141 -0.118  (1.119) (0.626) Market liberalism -1.584 -1.988**  (1.022) (0.640) Moral traditionalism -4.208*** -2.411***  (0.999) (0.581) Political cynicism 0.285 -2.207***  (1.073) (0.566) Regional alienation 0.0663 -0.260  (0.563) (0.321) NDP ID 4.197*** 1.411  (0.806) (0.824) LPC ID 0.752 2.191***  (0.506) (0.279) CPC ID -2.556*** -2.604***  (0.666) (0.351) National economy 0.217 -0.0811  (0.524) (0.325) Personal finances -0.590 0.432  (0.461) (0.305) Personal taxes 0.848 -0.0316  (0.457) (0.282) Defence spending -0.505 -0.780** "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 19 (0.477) (0.303) Education spending -0.498 -0.314  (0.700) (0.491) Health spending -0.0268 0.503  (0.932) (0.539) Welfare spending 0.538 0.0600  (0.472) (0.299) Environment spending 1.416* 1.020**  (0.582) (0.357) More immigration 0.000381 0.0765  (0.540) (0.323) Constant 0.528 2.898**  (1.738) (1.055)    Observations 1,174 1,174 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2004 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.125 0.218  (0.391) (0.340) West -0.0695 -0.604**  (0.257) (0.228) Female -0.328 -0.323  (0.219) (0.190) Under 35 0.114 -0.755**  (0.283) (0.281) Over 54 0.0657 0.289  (0.269) (0.218) Visible minority 0.399 0.678*  (0.396) (0.336) Catholic 0.453 0.418  (0.268) (0.218) No religion 0.384 -0.0927  (0.270) (0.275) Dropout 0.624* 0.203  (0.303) (0.269) University graduate -0.203 0.143  (0.257) (0.229) Union member 0.469 -0.0822  (0.245) (0.218) Accommodation of Quebec 0.456 1.163*  (0.583) (0.532) Continentalism -2.576*** -2.329***  (0.584) (0.545) Market liberalism -1.577* -0.610  (0.698) (0.631) Moral traditionalism -3.320*** -1.180*  (0.555) (0.486) Political cynicism -0.139 -2.360***  (0.627) (0.571) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 20Regional alienation -0.581 -0.263  (0.359) (0.322) NDP ID 2.731*** 0.289  (0.417) (0.465) LPC ID 0.656* 2.261***  (0.331) (0.261) CPC ID -2.331*** -2.279***  (0.338) (0.286) National economy -0.207 0.143  (0.314) (0.281) Personal finances -0.0523 -0.0350  (0.326) (0.283) Personal taxes 0.114 0.873*  (0.410) (0.366) Corporate taxes 0.137 -0.103  (0.380) (0.307) Defence spending -1.013*** -0.845**  (0.300) (0.286) Education spending 1.501** 0.268  (0.479) (0.404) Health spending -0.281 0.924*  (0.467) (0.425) Welfare spending 0.117 0.107  (0.326) (0.289) Environment spending 0.0934 0.643*  (0.376) (0.320) More immigration 0.387 -0.122  (0.323) (0.310) Constant 2.272* 2.092*  (1.078) (0.927)    Observations 1,523 1,523 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2006 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.575 0.588  (0.343) (0.314) West -0.287 -1.044***  (0.237) (0.221) Female 0.417* 0.254  (0.206) (0.192) Under 35 0.212 0.510  (0.294) (0.279) Over 54 0.502* 0.763**  (0.241) (0.246) Visible minority 0.416 1.196***  (0.367) (0.343) Catholic 0.377 0.369  (0.237) (0.222) No religion 0.758** 0.550*  (0.259) (0.243) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 21Dropout -0.181 -0.182  (0.334) (0.354) University graduate -0.182 -0.118  (0.217) (0.209) Union member 0.230 -0.140  (0.219) (0.229) Accommodation of Quebec 1.332* 0.470  (0.589) (0.548) Continentalism -2.136*** -2.150***  (0.599) (0.562) Market liberalism -1.685* -1.139  (0.658) (0.652) Moral traditionalism -3.030*** -2.535***  (0.611) (0.548) Political cynicism 1.360* -1.259*  (0.627) (0.604) Regional alienation 0.360 -0.166  (0.336) (0.323) NDP ID 3.409*** 1.577***  (0.406) (0.437) LPC ID 0.533* 2.103***  (0.255) (0.215) CPC ID -2.679*** -3.583***  (0.346) (0.592) National economy -0.252 0.790*  (0.327) (0.331) Personal finances 0.647* 0.730*  (0.330) (0.300) Personal taxes 0.156 0.364  (0.377) (0.343) Corporate taxes 0.102 0.936**  (0.345) (0.311) Defence spending -0.975** -0.749*  (0.310) (0.292) Education spending 0.542 0.147  (0.490) (0.430) Health spending -0.216 -0.210  (0.526) (0.492) Welfare spending 0.0626 0.0577  (0.343) (0.314) Environment spending 0.735* 0.672  (0.356) (0.372) More immigration 0.344 -0.0939  (0.370) (0.354) Constant -0.425 0.793  (1.086) (1.082)    Observations 1,696 1,696 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2008 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 22   Atlantic 0.946** 1.183***  (0.308) (0.286) West 0.226 -0.410  (0.215) (0.211) Female -0.0175 -0.102  (0.188) (0.179) Under 35 0.277 -0.0304  (0.294) (0.311) Over 54 0.103 0.368  (0.221) (0.210) Visible minority 0.506 0.994**  (0.346) (0.310) Catholic 0.294 0.315  (0.230) (0.207) No religion 0.573* 0.683**  (0.256) (0.262) Dropout 0.136 -0.0948  (0.302) (0.304) University graduate -0.0441 0.509**  (0.210) (0.195) Union member 0.373 -0.0407  (0.218) (0.221) Accommodation of Quebec 1.393** 1.340*  (0.523) (0.530) Continentalism -2.697*** -2.060***  (0.629) (0.626) Market liberalism -1.926** -0.881  (0.608) (0.632) Moral traditionalism -1.053 -0.707  (0.564) (0.563) Political cynicism 1.778** 1.393*  (0.594) (0.617) Regional alienation 0.247 0.236  (0.349) (0.317) NDP ID 3.043*** 1.121*  (0.413) (0.465) LPC ID 0.650* 2.381***  (0.279) (0.235) CPC ID -2.250*** -2.471***  (0.271) (0.283) National economy -0.262 -0.399  (0.281) (0.275) Personal finances -0.192 -0.269  (0.292) (0.291) Personal taxes 0.621 0.983**  (0.337) (0.329) Corporate taxes 0.552 0.0532  (0.306) (0.298) Defence spending -0.418 -0.872***  (0.270) (0.252) Education spending 1.090** 0.677  (0.403) (0.366) Health spending 0.0743 -1.151**  (0.486) (0.421) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 23Welfare spending 0.427 0.558*  (0.270) (0.283) Environment spending 0.0224 1.085***  (0.325) (0.317) More immigration -0.0885 0.0982  (0.322) (0.306) Constant -1.672 -1.270  (1.047) (1.034)    Observations 1,770 1,770 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2011 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.458 0.690*  (0.285) (0.284) West 0.0603 -0.978***  (0.235) (0.258) Female -0.444* -0.288  (0.206) (0.212) Under 35 -0.181 -0.0520  (0.350) (0.388) Over 54 0.150 0.510*  (0.231) (0.240) Visible minority 1.186** 0.837  (0.426) (0.451) Catholic 0.351 0.0398  (0.254) (0.259) No religion 0.482 0.516  (0.262) (0.266) Dropout -0.164 -0.653*  (0.277) (0.325) University graduate 0.117 0.382  (0.223) (0.234) Union member 0.416 -0.0982  (0.219) (0.241) Accommodation of Quebec 0.777 1.612**  (0.579) (0.605) Continentalism -1.103 -2.271**  (0.732) (0.766) Market liberalism -2.254*** -0.924  (0.642) (0.637) Moral traditionalism -1.285* -1.099  (0.591) (0.628) Political cynicism 1.559* 2.532***  (0.640) (0.636) Regional alienation 0.188 0.291  (0.405) (0.389) NDP ID 4.057*** 1.681*  (0.613) (0.714) LPC ID 1.023*** 2.608*** "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 24 (0.275) (0.264) CPC ID -1.938*** -2.386***  (0.292) (0.361) National economy -0.609 0.0124  (0.313) (0.330) Personal finances -0.835* -0.289  (0.379) (0.377) Personal taxes 0.797* 0.355  (0.388) (0.383) Corporate taxes 1.281*** 0.877**  (0.339) (0.334) Defence spending -0.437 -0.474  (0.295) (0.306) Education spending 0.541 0.640  (0.440) (0.417) Health spending 0.105 -0.238  (0.441) (0.420) Welfare spending 0.261 0.475  (0.346) (0.360) Environment spending 0.780 -0.140  (0.478) (0.412) More immigration 0.286 0.644  (0.355) (0.354) Constant -1.621 -2.400*  (1.197) (1.194)    Observations 1,702 1,702 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  Multinomial logistical regression results for leadership evaluation variables, 2000–11 Federal elections, ROC (Table 6.8, voted CPC is base outcome for all elections)  2000 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.585 -0.195  (0.434) (0.296) West 0.537 -0.313  (0.405) (0.268) Female 0.0434 -0.157  (0.302) (0.222) Under 35 -0.188 -0.267  (0.400) (0.294) Over 54 -0.288 0.173  (0.409) (0.280) Visible minority 0.270 1.300*  (0.824) (0.569) Catholic 0.791* 0.718**  (0.389) (0.247) No religion 0.891* 0.486  (0.414) (0.331) Dropout 0.643 0.138  (0.476) (0.293) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 25University graduate 0.0946 0.0283  (0.414) (0.263) Union member -0.0529 -0.0995  (0.359) (0.233) Accommodation of Quebec -0.167 -1.464*  (1.084) (0.678) Continentalism -1.964 0.424  (1.369) (0.767) Market liberalism -1.016 -1.827**  (1.119) (0.696) Moral traditionalism -3.709*** -2.192***  (1.094) (0.664) Political cynicism 0.266 -1.439*  (1.209) (0.718) Regional alienation -0.134 -0.212  (0.603) (0.402) NDP ID 3.507*** 1.259  (0.822) (0.847) LPC ID 0.468 1.654***  (0.514) (0.288) CPC ID -1.768* -1.667***  (0.715) (0.389) National economy 0.00974 -0.0936  (0.556) (0.353) Personal finances -0.784 0.221  (0.498) (0.338) Personal taxes 0.536 -0.0235  (0.507) (0.336) Defence spending -0.436 -0.764*  (0.478) (0.330) Education spending -0.558 -0.0827  (0.786) (0.491) Health spending -0.751 0.0862  (1.100) (0.599) Welfare spending 0.609 0.0703  (0.554) (0.353) Environment spending 1.516* 1.133**  (0.620) (0.384) More immigration 0.0463 0.0923  (0.578) (0.357) NDP leader 4.651*** 0.969  (1.093) (0.677) LPC leader 1.387 3.711***  (0.797) (0.591) CPC leader -7.050*** -5.924***  (1.057) (0.711) Constant 2.097 3.441*  (2.022) (1.341)    Observations 1,174 1,174 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2004 federal election "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 26 (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.231 0.120  (0.405) (0.369) West 0.144 -0.700**  (0.299) (0.257) Female -0.312 -0.263  (0.225) (0.209) Under 35 0.0813 -0.775**  (0.288) (0.294) Over 54 0.137 0.177  (0.291) (0.244) Visible minority 0.378 0.752*  (0.375) (0.344) Catholic 0.424 0.492*  (0.286) (0.243) No religion 0.221 -0.297  (0.285) (0.294) Dropout 0.456 0.136  (0.346) (0.319) University graduate -0.311 0.122  (0.269) (0.249) Union member 0.445 -0.129  (0.259) (0.235) Accommodation of Quebec 0.217 1.203*  (0.630) (0.580) Continentalism -1.804** -1.320*  (0.649) (0.652) Market liberalism -1.430 -0.776  (0.759) (0.691) Moral traditionalism -3.424*** -1.458**  (0.636) (0.549) Political cynicism -0.575 -1.845**  (0.718) (0.676) Regional alienation -0.584 0.0237  (0.391) (0.346) NDP ID 2.012*** 0.126  (0.440) (0.502) LPC ID 0.583 1.627***  (0.328) (0.272) CPC ID -1.603*** -1.435***  (0.372) (0.325) National economy -0.299 -0.282  (0.342) (0.311) Personal finances -0.109 -0.185  (0.360) (0.324) Personal taxes 0.0532 0.851*  (0.423) (0.395) Corporate taxes -0.0327 -0.210  (0.398) (0.348) Defence spending -0.857** -0.797**  (0.311) (0.291) Education spending 1.299** 0.403  (0.503) (0.450) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 27Health spending -0.359 0.696  (0.518) (0.453) Welfare spending 0.0370 0.120  (0.324) (0.307) Environment spending -0.0408 0.681*  (0.386) (0.334) More immigration 0.267 -0.117  (0.354) (0.358) NDP leader 3.905*** -0.282  (0.667) (0.576) LPC leader 0.142 5.373***  (0.597) (0.646) CPC leader -5.406*** -6.055***  (0.688) (0.655) Constant 3.475** 2.180  (1.310) (1.195)    Observations 1,523 1,523 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2006 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.850* 0.536  (0.392) (0.385) West -0.0271 -1.055***  (0.261) (0.266) Female 0.310 0.199  (0.226) (0.217) Under 35 0.191 0.468  (0.330) (0.314) Over 54 0.503 0.609*  (0.271) (0.294) Visible minority 0.224 0.967**  (0.385) (0.346) Catholic 0.470 0.462  (0.265) (0.256) No religion 0.896** 0.546  (0.302) (0.295) Dropout -0.507 -0.317  (0.388) (0.431) University graduate -0.533* -0.285  (0.245) (0.237) Union member 0.137 -0.259  (0.242) (0.242) Accommodation of Quebec 1.892** 1.558*  (0.675) (0.682) Continentalism -1.037 -0.875  (0.713) (0.700) Market liberalism -1.031 -0.819  (0.764) (0.791) Moral traditionalism -1.357 -1.034 "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 28 (0.706) (0.672) Political cynicism 1.429 -0.697  (0.801) (0.784) Regional alienation 0.212 0.0321  (0.382) (0.376) NDP ID 2.949*** 1.769***  (0.490) (0.523) LPC ID 0.417 1.425***  (0.302) (0.253) CPC ID -1.621*** -2.528***  (0.360) (0.719) National economy -0.612 0.332  (0.392) (0.415) Personal finances 0.718 0.804*  (0.390) (0.369) Personal taxes -0.00746 0.200  (0.403) (0.367) Corporate taxes 0.158 1.239**  (0.412) (0.384) Defence spending -0.682 -0.502  (0.364) (0.348) Education spending 0.578 -0.0257  (0.493) (0.489) Health spending -0.524 -0.367  (0.547) (0.528) Welfare spending 0.0858 0.0961  (0.387) (0.361) Environment spending 0.988* 0.853*  (0.423) (0.417) More immigration 0.195 -0.212  (0.395) (0.406) NDP leader 5.197*** 0.973  (0.763) (0.676) LPC leader 0.972 5.583***  (0.611) (0.646) CPC leader -7.028*** -7.933***  (0.829) (0.811) Constant -2.092 -1.182  (1.465) (1.354)    Observations 1,696 1,696 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2008 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.492 0.737*  (0.364) (0.336) West 0.425 -0.237  (0.239) (0.243) Female 0.0984 -0.103  (0.213) (0.209) Under 35 0.324 -0.0183 "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 29 (0.313) (0.362) Over 54 0.210 0.401  (0.254) (0.243) Visible minority 0.288 0.685  (0.408) (0.367) Catholic 0.317 0.295  (0.263) (0.244) No religion 0.372 0.360  (0.292) (0.309) Dropout 0.136 -0.230  (0.361) (0.358) University graduate -0.248 0.326  (0.230) (0.226) Union member 0.104 -0.303  (0.246) (0.268) Accommodation of Quebec 1.303* 0.488  (0.611) (0.608) Continentalism -2.461** -1.265  (0.787) (0.795) Market liberalism -1.265 -0.462  (0.686) (0.732) Moral traditionalism -0.0473 0.158  (0.652) (0.661) Political cynicism 0.150 -0.293  (0.717) (0.772) Regional alienation -0.163 -0.378  (0.384) (0.360) NDP ID 1.789*** 0.277  (0.402) (0.481) LPC ID 0.522 2.094***  (0.309) (0.267) CPC ID -1.337*** -1.677***  (0.290) (0.348) National economy -0.217 -0.223  (0.330) (0.316) Personal finances -0.0918 -0.341  (0.320) (0.325) Personal taxes 0.446 0.581  (0.388) (0.378) Corporate taxes 0.396 -0.211  (0.342) (0.332) Defence spending 0.00659 -0.392  (0.314) (0.306) Education spending 0.675 0.291  (0.437) (0.439) Health spending -0.163 -1.194*  (0.533) (0.503) Welfare spending 0.388 0.512  (0.323) (0.335) Environment spending 0.0168 1.008**  (0.368) (0.379) More immigration -0.340 -0.413  (0.382) (0.356) NDP leader 5.764*** 2.960*** "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 30 (0.705) (0.682) LPC leader 1.027 3.379***  (0.534) (0.599) CPC leader -6.724*** -7.297***  (0.612) (0.629) Constant -0.546 1.384  (1.249) (1.300)    Observations 1,770 1,770 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2011 federal election  (1) (2) Variables Voted NDP Voted LPC    Atlantic 0.374 0.473  (0.336) (0.328) West 0.469 -0.795**  (0.258) (0.286) Female -0.419 -0.362  (0.223) (0.237) Under 35 -0.345 -0.454  (0.393) (0.443) Over 54 -0.00694 0.218  (0.247) (0.258) Visible minority 1.590*** 1.223*  (0.454) (0.525) Catholic 0.304 0.134  (0.274) (0.282) No religion 0.379 0.297  (0.287) (0.301) Dropout 0.0256 -0.233  (0.335) (0.402) University graduate -0.177 0.0208  (0.246) (0.260) Union member 0.458 0.00411  (0.241) (0.264) Accommodation of Quebec -0.677 0.0797  (0.650) (0.687) Continentalism -0.338 -1.651*  (0.769) (0.832) Market liberalism -1.999** -0.588  (0.702) (0.710) Moral traditionalism -0.677 -0.798  (0.640) (0.699) Political cynicism -0.797 0.695  (0.753) (0.780) Regional alienation -0.0901 0.197  (0.428) (0.432) NDP ID 3.416*** 1.382  (0.627) (0.720) LPC ID 0.883** 2.099***  (0.309) (0.300) CPC ID -1.121*** -1.544*** "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 31 (0.308) (0.388) National economy -0.146 0.426  (0.345) (0.353) Personal finances -0.800 -0.0209  (0.427) (0.442) Personal taxes 0.517 -0.0460  (0.431) (0.449) Corporate taxes 0.734 0.353  (0.380) (0.386) Defence spending 0.238 0.214  (0.342) (0.362) Education spending 0.440 0.452  (0.517) (0.479) Health spending 0.216 -0.0679  (0.508) (0.490) Welfare spending 0.360 0.536  (0.370) (0.408) Environment spending 0.210 -0.560  (0.521) (0.518) More immigration -0.111 0.227  (0.413) (0.444) NDP leader 4.567*** 1.120  (0.673) (0.671) LPC leader 0.585 4.247***  (0.532) (0.577) CPC leader -6.080*** -5.527***  (0.654) (0.694) Constant 0.413 -0.281  (1.440) (1.455) Observations 1,702 1,702 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  Multinomial logistical regression results for sociodemographic variables, 2006–11 federal elections, Quebec (Table 6.12, voted BQ is base outcome for 2006 and 2004 and voted NDP is base outcome for 2011)  2006 federal election  (1) (2) (3) Variables NDP LPC CPC     Female 0.00189 0.0122 -0.379***  (0.0875) (0.0797) (0.0656) Gay 0.378* 0.108 -1.419***  (0.173) (0.192) (0.245) Under 35 0.416*** -0.290** -0.0166  (0.0998) (0.107) (0.0863) Over 54 -0.218 0.514*** 0.331***  (0.132) (0.0983) (0.0862) Low income 0.0650 -0.111 -0.284***  (0.0993) (0.0945) (0.0783) High income 0.138 0.303** 0.0885  (0.120) (0.105) (0.0910) High school -0.346** -0.269** -0.0531  (0.127) (0.104) (0.0831) University graduate 0.218* 0.0752 -0.296*** "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 32 (0.0968) (0.0940) (0.0836) Renter -0.0950 -0.186* -0.356***  (0.0765) (0.0789) (0.0661) No religion 0.131 -0.713*** -0.840***  (0.105) (0.129) (0.112) Union household 0.0176 -0.839*** -0.402***  (0.0894) (0.0893) (0.0721) Immigrant 1.165*** 1.496*** 0.881***  (0.194) (0.164) (0.175) Employed -0.189 0.0486 0.0351  (0.0966) (0.0893) (0.0770) Rural -0.216* -0.272** -0.469***  (0.107) (0.0986) (0.0823) Montreal -0.0745 0.447*** -0.735***  (0.0978) (0.0903) (0.0791) Constant -1.455*** -0.856*** 0.813***  (0.194) (0.185) (0.154) Observations 7,274 7,274 7,274 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05   2008 federal election  (1) (2) (3) Variables NDP LPC CPC     Female 0.230** 0.107 -0.334***  (0.0830) (0.0824) (0.0782) Gay 0.0369 0.0905 -0.944***  (0.169) (0.185) (0.258) Under 35 0.276** -0.0911 0.114  (0.0891) (0.104) (0.102) Over 54 -0.425*** 0.204* 0.332***  (0.0990) (0.0929) (0.0903) Low income 0.0352 -0.240* -0.368***  (0.0918) (0.0945) (0.0922) High income 0.0269 0.166 0.396***  (0.104) (0.106) (0.101) High school -0.271** 0.00283 0.238*  (0.103) (0.105) (0.0942) University graduate -0.157 0.313** -0.230*  (0.0928) (0.0953) (0.0983) Renter -0.0386 -0.0130 -0.0284  (0.0305) (0.0306) (0.0295) No religion 0.0241 -0.580*** -0.731***  (0.104) (0.123) (0.129) Union household -0.167* -0.440*** -0.345***  (0.0850) (0.0928) (0.0893) Immigrant 0.743*** 1.222*** 1.077***  (0.199) (0.209) (0.217) Employed -0.0278 -0.0845 0.0333  (0.0909) (0.0946) (0.0895) Rural -0.292** -0.173 -0.396***  (0.0947) (0.0963) (0.0918) Montreal -0.0491 -0.00519 -1.299***  (0.0898) (0.0941) (0.0954) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 33Anglophone 2.459*** 3.315*** 2.916***  (0.204) (0.198) (0.204) Constant -1.145*** -0.719*** 0.166  (0.149) (0.159) (0.147) Observations 7,376 7,376 7,376 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2011 federal election   (2) (3) (4) Variables LPC CPC BQ Female -0.0657 -0.280** -0.200*  (0.117) (0.0927) (0.0792) Gay -0.678* -1.050** -0.0957  (0.334) (0.394) (0.175) Under 35 -0.108 -0.116 -8.79e-05  (0.172) (0.143) (0.107) Over 54 0.259* 0.341** 0.179*  (0.120) (0.104) (0.0892) Low income 0.376* -0.164 0.127  (0.151) (0.117) (0.0912) High income 0.325* -0.0136 -0.0662  (0.127) (0.113) (0.0951) High school -0.329* 0.164 0.0276  (0.163) (0.110) (0.0871) University graduate 0.402*** -0.100 0.114  (0.114) (0.113) (0.0844) Renter 0.0562 -0.0128 -0.0466  (0.0402) (0.0324) (0.0273) No religion -0.464** -0.426** 0.0595  (0.144) (0.142) (0.0959) Union household -0.220 -0.179 0.247**  (0.130) (0.107) (0.0827) Immigrant 0.636*** 0.600*** -0.918***  (0.181) (0.177) (0.207) Employed -0.0954 0.203 0.00869  (0.140) (0.110) (0.0904) Rural -0.295* 0.110 0.191*  (0.132) (0.108) (0.0869) Montreal 0.0659 -1.029*** 0.129  (0.114) (0.106) (0.0808) Anglophone 1.070*** 1.189*** -2.526***  (0.134) (0.128) (0.297) Constant -2.079*** -0.974*** -0.578***  (0.236) (0.190) (0.163) Observations 8,780 8,780 8,780 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  Multinomial logistical regression results for general orientation variables, 2006–11 federal elections, Quebec (Table 6.12, voted BQ is base outcome for 2006 and 2004 and voted NDP is base outcome for 2011)  2006 federal election  (1) (2) (3) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 34Variables NDP LPC CPC     Female -0.290** -0.419*** -0.464***  (0.0998) (0.104) (0.0833) Gay 0.704*** 0.832*** -0.567*  (0.204) (0.242) (0.266) Under 35 0.406*** -0.214 0.113  (0.113) (0.132) (0.106) Over 54 -0.318* 0.273* -0.0297  (0.146) (0.131) (0.109) Low income 0.147 -0.0226 -0.219*  (0.113) (0.121) (0.0968) High income 0.110 0.282* 0.0584  (0.135) (0.132) (0.113) High school -0.303* -0.160 0.0271  (0.141) (0.134) (0.105) University graduate 0.176 0.0212 -0.245*  (0.112) (0.120) (0.100) Renter -0.0415 -0.157 -0.269***  (0.0872) (0.0982) (0.0806) No religion 0.463*** -0.238 -0.375**  (0.124) (0.157) (0.132) Union household 0.271** -0.482*** -0.0753  (0.101) (0.113) (0.0896) Immigrant 0.974*** 1.229*** 0.604**  (0.241) (0.244) (0.230) Employed -0.228* -0.0133 -0.0205  (0.109) (0.116) (0.0949) Rural -0.0556 -0.0399 -0.227*  (0.122) (0.127) (0.101) Montreal 0.0175 0.544*** -0.540***  (0.112) (0.116) (0.0971) Government intervention -0.0954 -0.0424 -0.894***  (0.107) (0.106) (0.0855) Same-sex marriage 0.289 -0.148 -1.447***  (0.183) (0.176) (0.137) Soft nationalist -2.352*** -3.606*** -2.379***  (0.124) (0.132) (0.109) Hard sovereignist -4.318*** -5.888*** -4.320***  (0.159) (0.219) (0.131) Antiparty sentiment 0.187 0.860*** 0.0735  (0.147) (0.150) (0.129) Constant 0.628* 1.672*** 4.329***  (0.263) (0.273) (0.228) Observations 7,274 7,274 7,274 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2008 federal election  (1) (2) (3) Variables NDP LPC CPC     Female 0.117 -0.0188 -0.376***  (0.0910) (0.0950) (0.0932) Gay 0.249 0.421 -0.593*  (0.195) (0.220) (0.302) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 35Under 35 0.129 -0.284* -0.0782  (0.0977) (0.116) (0.119) Over 54 -0.423*** 0.175 0.256*  (0.107) (0.107) (0.107) Low income 0.120 -0.144 -0.212*  (0.0991) (0.107) (0.107) High income -0.0283 0.0948 0.308*  (0.113) (0.122) (0.121) High school -0.257* 0.0639 0.375**  (0.111) (0.120) (0.115) University graduate -0.129 0.371*** -0.155  (0.101) (0.109) (0.114) Renter -0.0663* -0.0395 -0.0508  (0.0328) (0.0344) (0.0345) No religion 0.276* -0.260 -0.397**  (0.113) (0.136) (0.142) Union household -0.0213 -0.227* -0.116  (0.0931) (0.104) (0.102) Immigrant 0.344 0.794*** 0.706**  (0.226) (0.234) (0.246) Employed -0.00753 -0.0550 0.0569  (0.0983) (0.105) (0.105) Rural -0.189 -0.0406 -0.202  (0.101) (0.107) (0.106) Montreal 0.0584 0.107 -1.106***  (0.0958) (0.107) (0.109) Anglophone 1.688*** 2.273*** 1.884***  (0.212) (0.209) (0.217) Government intervention -0.118 -0.0738 -0.808***  (0.0991) (0.106) (0.102) Antiparty sentiment -0.0102 0.218 -0.529**  (0.141) (0.148) (0.166) Soft nationalist -1.766*** -2.530*** -2.624***  (0.116) (0.119) (0.117) Hard sovereignist -3.145*** -4.239*** -4.303***  (0.141) (0.161) (0.170) Constant 0.733*** 1.423*** 2.881***  (0.192) (0.208) (0.204)     Observations 7,376 7,376 7,376 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2011 federal election  (2) (3) (4) Variables LPC CPC BQ Female -0.0646 -0.144 0.00169  (0.121) (0.0986) (0.0957) Gay -0.462 -0.652 -0.198  (0.336) (0.407) (0.190) Under 35 -0.0275 0.0607 -0.00871  (0.175) (0.144) (0.122) Over 54 0.258* 0.219 0.194  (0.122) (0.112) (0.102) Low income 0.387* -0.101 0.0118  (0.154) (0.121) (0.106) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 36High income 0.297* -0.0606 0.00805  (0.128) (0.117) (0.109) High school -0.309 0.245* -0.0449  (0.165) (0.115) (0.0988) University graduate 0.390*** -0.0742 0.206*  (0.117) (0.117) (0.0960) Renter 0.0620 -0.0245 -0.0430  (0.0417) (0.0338) (0.0316) No religion -0.334* -0.218 -0.113  (0.151) (0.141) (0.110) Union household -0.181 -0.103 0.185*  (0.134) (0.110) (0.0936) Immigrant 0.494** 0.397* -0.486*  (0.186) (0.187) (0.230) Employed -0.0831 0.204 -0.0402  (0.143) (0.114) (0.103) Rural -0.288* 0.121 0.152  (0.133) (0.112) (0.101) Montreal 0.0861 -0.948*** -0.0672  (0.115) (0.112) (0.0949) Anglophone 0.787*** 0.872*** -1.599***  (0.154) (0.137) (0.354) Government intervention 0.112 -0.652*** 0.206  (0.130) (0.107) (0.106) Same-sex marriage -0.375* -0.979*** -0.210  (0.170) (0.138) (0.152) Soft nationalist -0.546*** -1.078*** 2.123***  (0.149) (0.117) (0.163) Hard sovereignist -1.241*** -1.776*** 3.617***  (0.290) (0.208) (0.168) Antiparty sentiment 0.645*** -0.198 0.419**  (0.172) (0.166) (0.152) Constant -1.813*** 0.517* -2.869***  (0.284) (0.220) (0.265)     Observations 8,780 8,780 8,780 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05   Multinomial logistical regression results for economic perception variables, 2006–11 federal elections, Quebec (Table 6.13, voted BQ is base outcome for 2006 and 2004 and voted NDP is base outcome for 2011)  2006 federal election  (1) (2) (3) Variables NDP LPC CPC     Female -0.295** -0.355*** -0.381***  (0.100) (0.106) (0.0850) Gay 0.712*** 0.857*** -0.491  (0.203) (0.244) (0.269) Under 35 0.401*** -0.165 0.177  (0.113) (0.132) (0.108) Over 54 -0.327* 0.216 -0.114  (0.146) (0.131) (0.110) Low income 0.152 0.000261 -0.181 "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 37 (0.114) (0.122) (0.0990) High income 0.102 0.249 0.0219  (0.136) (0.132) (0.114) High school -0.319* -0.184 -6.38e-05  (0.142) (0.134) (0.106) University graduate 0.189 0.0138 -0.248*  (0.112) (0.121) (0.102) Renter -0.0502 -0.151 -0.259**  (0.0873) (0.0985) (0.0814) No religion 0.489*** -0.218 -0.328*  (0.124) (0.158) (0.135) Union household 0.276** -0.473*** -0.0588  (0.102) (0.113) (0.0912) Immigrant 0.973*** 1.238*** 0.604**  (0.239) (0.240) (0.227) Employed -0.235* -0.00313 -0.0201  (0.109) (0.116) (0.0960) Rural -0.0511 -0.0469 -0.228*  (0.123) (0.127) (0.102) Montreal 0.0170 0.568*** -0.499***  (0.113) (0.117) (0.0987) Government intervention -0.0804 -0.0323 -0.878***  (0.107) (0.106) (0.0868) Same-sex marriage 0.306 -0.135 -1.437***  (0.183) (0.176) (0.138) Soft nationalist -2.372*** -3.588*** -2.370***  (0.125) (0.133) (0.110) Hard sovereignist -4.346*** -5.810*** -4.238***  (0.160) (0.218) (0.132) Antiparty sentiment 0.176 1.005*** 0.276*  (0.148) (0.152) (0.131) Canada going in wrong direction 0.0525 -0.678*** -0.974***  (0.102) (0.105) (0.0863) Constant 0.605* 1.842*** 4.551***  (0.266) (0.275) (0.234) Observations 7,274 7,274 7,274 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2008 federal election  (1) (2) (3) Variables NDP LPC CPC     Female 0.141 0.0589 -0.176  (0.0925) (0.0962) (0.0999) Gay 0.248 0.423 -0.259  (0.193) (0.219) (0.302) Under 35 0.137 -0.328** -0.122  (0.0986) (0.117) (0.130) Over 54 -0.445*** 0.170 0.115  (0.107) (0.109) (0.115) Low income 0.116 -0.142 -0.154  (0.0989) (0.108) (0.116) High income -0.0558 0.0668 0.241  (0.114) (0.122) (0.126) High school -0.273* 0.0579 0.345** "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 38 (0.111) (0.119) (0.122) University graduate -0.120 0.369*** -0.0931  (0.102) (0.110) (0.123) Renter -0.0671* -0.0368 -0.0407  (0.0333) (0.0351) (0.0380) No religion 0.294** -0.249 -0.280  (0.113) (0.138) (0.156) Union household -0.00182 -0.196 -0.0197  (0.0937) (0.105) (0.110) Immigrant 0.371 0.802*** 0.677**  (0.226) (0.238) (0.248) Employed -0.00901 -0.0545 -0.0440  (0.0983) (0.106) (0.113) Rural -0.153 0.00905 -0.186  (0.101) (0.109) (0.113) Montreal 0.0766 0.150 -1.072***  (0.0960) (0.108) (0.115) Anglophone 1.670*** 2.274*** 1.964***  (0.208) (0.202) (0.209) Government intervention -0.129 -0.0789 -0.574***  (0.0995) (0.107) (0.111) Antiparty sentiment -0.0656 0.262 -0.0399  (0.141) (0.150) (0.173) Soft nationalist -1.760*** -2.508*** -2.525***  (0.116) (0.119) (0.125) Hard sovereignist -3.130*** -4.185*** -4.033***  (0.141) (0.161) (0.181) Canada going in wrong direction -0.140 -0.134 -2.791***  (0.109) (0.116) (0.140) Personal finances 0.116 -0.436** -0.447**  (0.133) (0.143) (0.154) Constant 0.754*** 1.609*** 3.665***  (0.206) (0.222) (0.229) Observations 7,376 7,376 7,376 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05   2011 federal election  (2) (3) (4) Variables LPC CPC BQ Female -0.0774 0.0149 -0.00700  (0.123) (0.107) (0.0962) Gay -0.468 -0.618 -0.178  (0.332) (0.445) (0.190) Under 35 -0.0312 0.0364 0.00903  (0.177) (0.157) (0.124) Over 54 0.269* 0.139 0.173  (0.123) (0.118) (0.103) Low income 0.372* -0.0487 0.00904  (0.155) (0.131) (0.106) High income 0.309* -0.114 0.00399  (0.128) (0.125) (0.111) High school -0.274 0.229 -0.0529  (0.169) (0.122) (0.0992) University graduate 0.366** -0.00490 0.211* "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 39 (0.118) (0.123) (0.0962) Renter 0.0683 -0.0319 -0.0410  (0.0417) (0.0361) (0.0316) No religion -0.365* -0.0506 -0.122  (0.154) (0.157) (0.111) Union household -0.177 -0.0345 0.172  (0.135) (0.123) (0.0947) Immigrant 0.515** 0.321 -0.464*  (0.187) (0.187) (0.225) Employed -0.0918 0.203 -0.0240  (0.145) (0.119) (0.104) Rural -0.305* 0.190 0.148  (0.133) (0.120) (0.101) Montreal 0.100 -0.953*** -0.0719  (0.115) (0.120) (0.0956) Anglophone 0.791*** 0.802*** -1.591***  (0.156) (0.153) (0.348) Government intervention 0.101 -0.576*** 0.196  (0.131) (0.113) (0.107) Same-sex marriage -0.376* -0.961*** -0.226  (0.171) (0.148) (0.153) Soft nationalist -0.554*** -0.992*** 2.113***  (0.155) (0.128) (0.163) Hard sovereignist -1.277*** -1.557*** 3.597***  (0.292) (0.214) (0.169) Antiparty sentiment 0.620*** 0.167 0.396**  (0.177) (0.178) (0.153) Canada going in wrong direction 0.263 -2.587*** 0.154  (0.137) (0.176) (0.114) Personal finances -0.0788 -0.108 0.297*  (0.166) (0.169) (0.133) Constant -1.914*** 1.077*** -3.068***  (0.295) (0.249) (0.272)     Observations 8,780 8,780 8,780 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  Multinomial logistical regression results for most important issue variables, 2006–11 federal elections, Quebec (Table 6.14, voted BQ is base outcome for 2006 and 2004 and voted NDP is base outcome for 2011)  2006 federal election  (1) (2) (3) Variables NDP LPC CPC     Female -0.378*** -0.423*** -0.323***  (0.106) (0.110) (0.0868) Gay 0.725*** 0.634* -0.777**  (0.207) (0.269) (0.285) Under 35 0.255* -0.290* 0.130  (0.118) (0.137) (0.112) Over 54 -0.333* 0.292* -0.0411  (0.149) (0.138) (0.112) Low income 0.149 -0.0305 -0.151  (0.118) (0.127) (0.101) High income 0.150 0.263 0.0162 "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 40 (0.138) (0.135) (0.114) High school -0.292* -0.133 -0.0172  (0.144) (0.140) (0.108) University graduate 0.177 0.0452 -0.240*  (0.115) (0.124) (0.104) Renter -0.0740 -0.105 -0.234**  (0.0908) (0.100) (0.0820) No religion 0.471*** -0.129 -0.311*  (0.129) (0.164) (0.138) Union household 0.264* -0.501*** -0.0733  (0.105) (0.116) (0.0928) Immigrant 1.005*** 1.262*** 0.575*  (0.251) (0.245) (0.231) Employed -0.230* -0.0561 -0.00660  (0.113) (0.122) (0.0977) Rural -0.0373 -0.0783 -0.255*  (0.126) (0.133) (0.104) Montreal -0.0174 0.581*** -0.534***  (0.117) (0.122) (0.101) Government intervention -0.191 -0.0460 -0.819***  (0.111) (0.111) (0.0889) Same-sex marriage 0.220 -0.0693 -1.333***  (0.189) (0.182) (0.142) Soft nationalist -2.384*** -3.488*** -2.243***  (0.130) (0.138) (0.112) Hard sovereignist -4.347*** -5.636*** -4.104***  (0.165) (0.223) (0.133) Antiparty sentiment 0.246 1.096*** 0.264*  (0.153) (0.157) (0.134) Canada going in wrong direction -0.0241 -0.687*** -0.987***  (0.104) (0.110) (0.0879) Health voter -0.340* -1.340*** -1.255***  (0.160) (0.170) (0.141) Corruption voter -1.093*** -3.597*** -0.935***  (0.161) (0.261) (0.120) Economy voter -0.788*** -0.534*** -0.955***  (0.169) (0.138) (0.124) Environment voter 0.614** -1.309*** -1.963***  (0.193) (0.268) (0.272) Social policy voter 0.406** -0.963*** -1.467***  (0.156) (0.189) (0.174) Constant 1.199*** 2.635*** 5.136***  (0.283) (0.296) (0.248) Observations 7,274 7,274 7,274 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2008 federal election  (1) (2) (3) Variables NDP LPC CPC     Female 0.120 0.146 -0.137  (0.0938) (0.0974) (0.103) Gay 0.317 0.527* -0.250  (0.188) (0.218) (0.305) Under 35 0.109 -0.376** -0.0717 "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 41 (0.100) (0.119) (0.134) Over 54 -0.476*** 0.145 0.116  (0.109) (0.110) (0.117) Low income 0.117 -0.141 -0.141  (0.0991) (0.109) (0.118) High income -0.0656 0.0521 0.212  (0.115) (0.123) (0.129) High school -0.274* 0.0924 0.339**  (0.113) (0.120) (0.124) University graduate -0.133 0.305** -0.0610  (0.102) (0.111) (0.126) Renter -0.0665* -0.0210 -0.0489  (0.0335) (0.0351) (0.0382) No religion 0.284* -0.275* -0.281  (0.113) (0.139) (0.158) Union household -0.0214 -0.187 0.00276  (0.0940) (0.105) (0.111) Immigrant 0.376 0.808*** 0.608*  (0.224) (0.238) (0.246) Employed 0.00308 -0.0475 -0.0846  (0.0984) (0.107) (0.114) Rural -0.139 0.0206 -0.197  (0.102) (0.110) (0.115) Montreal 0.115 0.176 -1.070***  (0.0960) (0.110) (0.118) Anglophone 1.681*** 2.326*** 1.947***  (0.209) (0.206) (0.211) Government intervention -0.176 -0.106 -0.503***  (0.0996) (0.107) (0.113) Antiparty sentiment -0.0422 0.289 -0.0102  (0.141) (0.151) (0.175) Soft nationalist -1.810*** -2.543*** -2.489***  (0.117) (0.120) (0.127) Hard sovereignist -3.191*** -4.185*** -3.985***  (0.143) (0.164) (0.186) Canada going in wrong direction -0.176 -0.168 -2.761***  (0.109) (0.117) (0.143) Personal finances 0.103 -0.438** -0.449**  (0.133) (0.145) (0.155) Health voter 0.566*** 0.118 -0.499**  (0.132) (0.148) (0.165) Corruption voter 1.103*** -0.0793 -0.183  (0.257) (0.385) (0.356) Economy voter 0.320** 0.532*** 0.187  (0.116) (0.121) (0.118) Environment voter 0.689*** 0.941*** -2.218***  (0.131) (0.144) (0.287) Social policy voter 1.118*** 0.101 -0.295  (0.144) (0.190) (0.194) Constant 0.416 1.220*** 3.717***  (0.218) (0.235) (0.241) Observations 7,376 7,376 7,376 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05   "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 42 2011 federal election  (2) (3) (4) Variables LPC CPC BQ Female -0.0561 0.0320 0.0107  (0.122) (0.111) (0.0963) Gay -0.472 -0.609 -0.195  (0.333) (0.452) (0.190) Under 35 -0.0251 -0.00632 -0.0166  (0.179) (0.162) (0.125) Over 54 0.287* 0.152 0.198  (0.124) (0.119) (0.104) Low income 0.371* -0.0148 0.0152  (0.155) (0.133) (0.107) High income 0.291* -0.0932 -0.0106  (0.128) (0.129) (0.113) High school -0.258 0.195 -0.0629  (0.169) (0.125) (0.100) University graduate 0.359** -0.0452 0.233*  (0.118) (0.125) (0.0974) Renter 0.0645 -0.0332 -0.0444  (0.0414) (0.0363) (0.0320) No religion -0.375* -0.00318 -0.146  (0.155) (0.159) (0.112) Union household -0.179 -0.0345 0.173  (0.134) (0.124) (0.0955) Immigrant 0.513** 0.321 -0.504*  (0.187) (0.182) (0.231) Employed -0.0959 0.193 -0.0285  (0.145) (0.122) (0.105) Rural -0.311* 0.142 0.118  (0.133) (0.120) (0.103) Montreal 0.103 -0.989*** -0.103  (0.115) (0.123) (0.0968) Anglophone 0.810*** 0.912*** -1.474***  (0.157) (0.160) (0.337) Government intervention 0.125 -0.477*** 0.208  (0.131) (0.116) (0.107) Same-sex marriage -0.374* -0.912*** -0.188  (0.172) (0.150) (0.155) Soft nationalist -0.561*** -0.911*** 2.122***  (0.155) (0.132) (0.164) Hard sovereignist -1.287*** -1.557*** 3.537***  (0.290) (0.216) (0.170) Antiparty sentiment 0.606*** 0.178 0.388*  (0.179) (0.184) (0.155) Canada going in wrong direction 0.260 -2.513*** 0.170  (0.136) (0.179) (0.115) Personal finances -0.0644 -0.102 0.256  (0.166) (0.174) (0.133) Health voter -0.115 -0.772*** -0.485***  (0.159) (0.187) (0.134) Corruption voter 0.143 -1.590*** -0.459***  (0.170) (0.236) (0.130) Economy voter 0.223 0.475*** -0.523***  (0.156) (0.121) (0.130) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 43Environment voter 0.127 -2.351*** -0.728***  (0.252) (0.416) (0.218) Social policy voter -0.335 -0.678* -1.480***  (0.259) (0.292) (0.242) Constant -1.970*** 1.125*** -2.744***  (0.291) (0.260) (0.277) Observations 8,780 8,780 8,780 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  Multinomial logistical regression results for leader evaluation variables,  2006–11 federal elections, Quebec (Table 6.15, voted BQ is base outcome for 2006 and 2004 and voted NDP is base outcome for 2011)  2006 federal election  (1) (2) (3) Variables NDP LPC CPC     Female -0.362*** -0.378** -0.410***  (0.108) (0.125) (0.0915) Gay 0.719*** 0.485 -0.668*  (0.209) (0.298) (0.288) Under 35 0.172 -0.288 0.208  (0.120) (0.152) (0.117) Over 54 -0.286 0.113 -0.0471  (0.152) (0.153) (0.118) Low income 0.168 -0.0352 -0.200  (0.121) (0.140) (0.105) High income 0.150 0.146 0.0549  (0.141) (0.152) (0.123) High school -0.226 -0.183 -0.131  (0.146) (0.160) (0.112) University graduate 0.175 -0.0658 -0.144  (0.118) (0.139) (0.111) Renter -0.0742 -0.0270 -0.270**  (0.0931) (0.112) (0.0875) No religion 0.518*** -0.0789 -0.320*  (0.130) (0.180) (0.147) Union household 0.232* -0.514*** -0.0280  (0.107) (0.130) (0.0979) Immigrant 0.949*** 1.185*** 0.729**  (0.258) (0.253) (0.237) Employed -0.238* 0.0727 -0.0659  (0.114) (0.135) (0.101) Rural -0.0686 -0.0596 -0.225*  (0.128) (0.149) (0.109) Montreal -0.115 0.437** -0.441***  (0.119) (0.136) (0.107) Government intervention -0.247* -0.0958 -0.825***  (0.113) (0.127) (0.0935) Same-sex marriage 0.0484 0.00815 -1.188***  (0.194) (0.203) (0.146) Soft nationalist -2.444*** -3.244*** -2.279***  (0.133) (0.153) (0.118) Hard sovereignist -4.424*** -5.277*** -4.110***  (0.170) (0.239) (0.143) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 44Antiparty sentiment 0.193 0.982*** 0.415**  (0.159) (0.176) (0.139) Canada going in wrong direction -0.0880 -0.631*** -0.839***  (0.107) (0.122) (0.0930) Health voter -0.373* -1.527*** -1.158***  (0.164) (0.183) (0.143) Corruption voter -1.123*** -3.576*** -0.913***  (0.164) (0.289) (0.126) Economy voter -0.730*** -0.645*** -0.918***  (0.172) (0.155) (0.131) Environment voter 0.523** -1.206*** -1.723***  (0.195) (0.283) (0.286) Social policy voter 0.428** -0.913*** -1.430***  (0.159) (0.201) (0.177) Layton best PM 1.459*** 0.633*** -1.359***  (0.159) (0.180) (0.107) Martin best PM 0.811*** 2.633*** -1.300***  (0.190) (0.182) (0.142) Harper best PM -0.755*** -0.907*** 0.801***  (0.207) (0.230) (0.160) Leader voter 0.568*** -0.209 0.615***  (0.120) (0.139) (0.0995) Constant 0.323 1.123** 5.432***  (0.308) (0.345) (0.262) Observations 7,274 7,274 7,274 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05   2008 federal election   (1) (2) (3) Variables NDP LPC CPC     Female 0.169 0.274** 0.0314  (0.103) (0.105) (0.121) Gay 0.342 0.474* -0.129  (0.209) (0.230) (0.282) Under 35 0.111 -0.364** -0.0236  (0.110) (0.127) (0.159) Over 54 -0.403*** -0.0168 -0.185  (0.117) (0.118) (0.133) Low income 0.214* -0.165 -0.206  (0.108) (0.116) (0.135) High income -0.0197 0.0535 0.214  (0.122) (0.132) (0.150) High school -0.187 0.176 0.422**  (0.121) (0.125) (0.144) University graduate -0.0817 0.219 -0.0472  (0.112) (0.121) (0.145) Renter -0.0527 -0.0388 -0.0812  (0.0354) (0.0365) (0.0441) No religion 0.360** -0.265 -0.392*  (0.123) (0.153) (0.181) Union household -0.0502 -0.152 0.0185  (0.103) (0.112) (0.127) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 45Immigrant 0.412 0.696** 0.635*  (0.233) (0.242) (0.295) Employed -0.0414 0.00581 -0.0488  (0.108) (0.113) (0.127) Rural -0.116 -0.000131 -0.0560  (0.111) (0.118) (0.132) Montreal 0.108 0.207 -1.086***  (0.106) (0.121) (0.143) Anglophone 1.832*** 2.267*** 1.909***  (0.218) (0.211) (0.233) Government intervention -0.172 -0.0449 -0.381**  (0.109) (0.114) (0.130) Antiparty sentiment -0.0984 0.398* 0.256  (0.159) (0.161) (0.199) Soft nationalist -1.713*** -2.490*** -2.311***  (0.123) (0.123) (0.142) Hard sovereignist -2.984*** -3.940*** -3.513***  (0.148) (0.169) (0.211) Canada going in wrong direction -0.129 -0.259* -2.071***  (0.122) (0.126) (0.158) Personal finances 0.173 -0.409** -0.275  (0.147) (0.155) (0.174) Health voter 0.539*** 0.206 -0.261  (0.147) (0.155) (0.191) Corruption voter 1.013*** 0.0267 -0.277  (0.271) (0.402) (0.359) Economy voter 0.329** 0.495*** 0.145  (0.123) (0.129) (0.138) Environment voter 0.686*** 0.824*** -1.909***  (0.143) (0.153) (0.281) Social policy voter 1.082*** 0.0573 -0.346  (0.159) (0.200) (0.226) Layton best PM 1.057*** -0.0806 0.246  (0.140) (0.135) (0.175) Dion best PM -0.637** 1.373*** -0.239  (0.226) (0.154) (0.260) Harper best PM -0.209 0.104 2.715***  (0.231) (0.203) (0.199) Duceppe best PM -1.058*** -0.679*** -0.984***  (0.205) (0.196) (0.286) Leader voter 1.469*** 0.0340 0.571***  (0.0992) (0.111) (0.126) Constant -0.763** 0.891*** 2.027***  (0.270) (0.268) (0.313) Observations 7,376 7,376 7,376 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  2011 federal election  (2) (3) (4) Variables LPC CPC BQ Female 0.108 0.195 -0.151  (0.139) (0.143) (0.109) Gay -0.461 0.139 -0.110  (0.371) (0.517) (0.242) Under 35 0.137 -0.181 0.00954 "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 46 (0.199) (0.210) (0.141) Over 54 0.258 0.0188 0.245*  (0.155) (0.162) (0.120) Low income 0.454** 0.0693 0.103  (0.175) (0.162) (0.119) High income 0.124 -0.148 -0.0952  (0.152) (0.183) (0.130) High school -0.0356 0.457** -0.0144  (0.184) (0.157) (0.116) University graduate 0.275 -0.0264 0.217  (0.141) (0.188) (0.113) Renter 0.0181 -0.102* -0.0513  (0.0541) (0.0479) (0.0374) No religion -0.683*** -0.0645 -0.302*  (0.181) (0.207) (0.129) Union household -0.158 0.127 0.221*  (0.154) (0.150) (0.112) Immigrant 0.464* 0.228 -0.530*  (0.199) (0.231) (0.247) Employed 0.250 0.169 0.0690  (0.160) (0.160) (0.118) Rural -0.197 0.466** 0.249*  (0.157) (0.154) (0.115) Montreal 0.160 -0.941*** 0.00492  (0.142) (0.173) (0.112) Anglophone 0.723*** 0.684*** -1.567***  (0.180) (0.195) (0.296) Government intervention 0.0364 -0.268 0.254*  (0.157) (0.150) (0.116) Same-sex marriage -0.437* -0.416* -0.0284  (0.216) (0.188) (0.172) Soft nationalist -0.633*** -0.438** 2.067***  (0.160) (0.161) (0.182) Hard sovereignist -1.131** -0.949*** 3.441***  (0.355) (0.276) (0.195) Antiparty sentiment 0.398 -0.169 0.204  (0.226) (0.252) (0.189) Canada going in wrong direction 0.0671 -1.425*** 0.0908  (0.155) (0.201) (0.134) Personal finances -0.0309 -0.0512 0.234  (0.208) (0.235) (0.151) Health voter 0.0153 -0.505* -0.424**  (0.196) (0.225) (0.158) Corruption voter -0.0613 -1.133*** -0.438**  (0.211) (0.278) (0.149) Economy voter 0.288 0.440** -0.466***  (0.181) (0.155) (0.141) Environment voter -0.0317 -2.216* -0.711**  (0.303) (1.050) (0.260) Social policy voter -0.273 -0.258 -1.469***  (0.319) (0.377) (0.292) Layton best PM -1.768*** -1.602*** -1.367***  (0.211) (0.206) (0.147) Ignatieff best PM 2.128*** -1.096** -0.0127  (0.217) (0.403) (0.204) Harper best PM -0.341 3.008*** 0.348 "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 47 (0.274) (0.223) (0.277) Duceppe best PM -0.650 -0.828 1.823***  (0.511) (0.549) (0.252) Leader voter -1.989*** -1.599*** -1.898***  (0.136) (0.139) (0.110) Constant -0.717 0.652 -1.352***  (0.420) (0.404) (0.339)     Observations 8,780 8,780 8,780 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05  Multinomial logistical regression results for strategic consideration variables, 2006–11 federal elections, Quebec (Table 6.16, voted BQ is base outcome for 2006 and 2004 and voted NDP is base outcome for 2011)  2006 federal election  (1) (2) (3) Variables NDP LPC CPC     Female -0.431*** -0.516*** -0.505***  (0.114) (0.148) (0.103) Gay 0.622** 0.0779 -0.717*  (0.208) (0.305) (0.327) Under 35 0.104 -0.421* 0.221  (0.126) (0.171) (0.128) Over 54 -0.246 0.150 -0.0182  (0.156) (0.187) (0.130) Low income 0.165 0.0896 -0.219  (0.126) (0.164) (0.117) High income 0.219 0.194 0.126  (0.146) (0.185) (0.131) High school -0.185 -0.0994 -0.120  (0.149) (0.181) (0.121) University graduate 0.185 0.105 -0.203  (0.124) (0.170) (0.122) Renter -0.0933 -0.0784 -0.298**  (0.0977) (0.126) (0.0967) No religion 0.506*** -0.177 -0.218  (0.137) (0.217) (0.160) Union household 0.239* -0.500** -0.0311  (0.111) (0.152) (0.107) Immigrant 0.897*** 1.264*** 0.749**  (0.267) (0.292) (0.242) Employed -0.155 0.178 -0.0557  (0.120) (0.159) (0.111) Rural -0.0785 0.0468 -0.301*  (0.132) (0.181) (0.118) Montreal -0.198 0.404* -0.476***  (0.124) (0.164) (0.116) Government intervention -0.287* -0.207 -0.868***  (0.118) (0.152) (0.102) Soft nationalist -2.385*** -2.758*** -2.244***  (0.141) (0.175) (0.127) Hard sovereignist -4.203*** -4.427*** -3.857***  (0.177) (0.271) (0.153) Same-sex marriage 0.0256 -0.0985 -1.091*** "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 48 (0.199) (0.249) (0.159) Antiparty sentiment 0.371* 1.438*** 0.611***  (0.170) (0.224) (0.157) Canada going in wrong direction 0.0410 -0.580*** -0.597***  (0.114) (0.148) (0.102) Health voter -0.376* -1.240*** -1.332***  (0.170) (0.208) (0.158) Corruption voter -0.957*** -2.819*** -0.847***  (0.168) (0.333) (0.137) Economy voter -0.818*** -0.675*** -1.059***  (0.179) (0.188) (0.143) Environment voter 0.408* -1.153*** -1.868***  (0.206) (0.317) (0.303) Social policy voter 0.364* -0.949*** -1.534***  (0.167) (0.240) (0.190) Layton best PM 1.524*** 0.0541 -1.062***  (0.165) (0.224) (0.118) Martin best PM 0.667** 0.828*** -0.988***  (0.206) (0.227) (0.166) Harper best PM -0.755*** -0.907*** 0.801***  (0.207) (0.230) (0.160) Leader voter 0.625*** -0.182 0.590***  (0.124) (0.153) (0.109) PM deserves majority 0.361* 3.494*** -0.874***  (0.165) (0.184) (0.201) Strategic voter -1.385*** -0.779*** -1.221***  (0.115) (0.154) (0.103) Wants local MP in government 0.0667 0.690** 1.249***  (0.162) (0.231) (0.160) Wants minority government -0.0375 -0.636*** -0.988***  (0.123) (0.147) (0.101) Decided after debates 1.136*** 0.363* 1.433***  (0.116) (0.149) (0.107) Constant 0.379 0.139 4.923***  (0.364) (0.456) (0.318) Observations 7,274 7,274 7,274 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05   2008 federal election  (1) (2) (3) Variables NDP LPC CPC     Female 0.0599 0.122 0.152  (0.111) (0.111) (0.149) Gay 0.364 0.451 0.398  (0.212) (0.233) (0.413) Under 35 0.0347 -0.403** -0.0514  (0.118) (0.133) (0.199) Over 54 -0.288* 0.117 -0.183  (0.127) (0.125) (0.159) Low income 0.155 -0.239* -0.248  (0.115) (0.122) (0.166) High income -0.0333 0.0159 0.271  (0.137) (0.144) (0.189) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 49High school -0.220 0.109 0.508**  (0.129) (0.131) (0.178) University graduate -0.00386 0.302* 0.104  (0.121) (0.129) (0.176) Renter -0.0691 -0.0624 -0.0782  (0.0387) (0.0399) (0.0529) No religion 0.353** -0.235 -0.382  (0.135) (0.161) (0.209) Union household -0.0703 -0.149 0.117  (0.112) (0.119) (0.163) Immigrant 0.288 0.552* 0.537  (0.253) (0.268) (0.345) Employed 0.0580 0.107 0.123  (0.116) (0.119) (0.155) Rural -0.316* -0.169 -0.293  (0.123) (0.125) (0.157) Montreal 0.0169 0.129 -1.072***  (0.116) (0.131) (0.178) Anglophone 1.878*** 2.382*** 2.005***  (0.236) (0.228) (0.261) Government intervention -0.243* -0.131 -0.0480  (0.117) (0.120) (0.165) Antiparty sentiment 0.397* 0.686*** 1.097***  (0.168) (0.175) (0.248) Soft nationalist -1.616*** -2.416*** -2.078***  (0.131) (0.130) (0.174) Hard sovereignist -2.824*** -3.750*** -3.052***  (0.160) (0.182) (0.281) Canada going in wrong direction -0.0471 -0.306* -0.371  (0.135) (0.134) (0.202) Personal finances 0.391* -0.261 0.232  (0.159) (0.164) (0.213) Health voter 0.465** 0.0988 -0.160  (0.161) (0.167) (0.234) Corruption voter 0.960** 0.0177 -0.766  (0.301) (0.423) (0.533) Economy voter 0.222 0.385** 0.182  (0.133) (0.136) (0.170) Environment voter 0.624*** 0.718*** -1.668***  (0.152) (0.159) (0.380) Social policy voter 0.962*** -0.00860 -0.508*  (0.174) (0.205) (0.256) Layton best PM 1.025*** -0.0989 0.178  (0.146) (0.143) (0.212) Dion best PM -0.861*** 1.181*** -0.0920  (0.233) (0.161) (0.342) Harper best PM -0.318 0.196 1.185***  (0.250) (0.227) (0.234) Duceppe best PM -1.309*** -0.914*** -1.242***  (0.218) (0.212) (0.330) Leader voter 1.430*** 0.0322 0.420**  (0.106) (0.116) (0.154) PM deserves majority -0.374* -0.990*** 3.936***  (0.174) (0.178) (0.250) Strategic voter -2.091*** -1.441*** -2.646***  (0.110) (0.116) (0.178) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 50Wants local MP in government 0.263 0.708*** 1.161***  (0.166) (0.184) (0.253) Wants minority government -0.174 -0.535*** -1.029***  (0.113) (0.114) (0.147) Decided after debates 0.856*** 0.976*** 0.356*  (0.102) (0.106) (0.149) Constant -0.0348 1.517*** -0.989*  (0.323) (0.336) (0.458) Observations 7,376 7,376 7,376 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05   2011 federal election  (2) (3) (4) Variables LPC CPC BQ Female 0.119 0.270 -0.0320  (0.140) (0.161) (0.117) Gay -0.546 0.300 -0.165  (0.356) (0.668) (0.275) Under 35 0.105 -0.249 -0.0614  (0.203) (0.238) (0.149) Over 54 0.260 -0.137 0.175  (0.157) (0.177) (0.126) Low iIncome 0.448* 0.166 0.182  (0.179) (0.179) (0.131) High income 0.181 0.0404 -0.116  (0.153) (0.198) (0.133) High school -0.0859 0.330 0.0824  (0.189) (0.175) (0.124) University graduate 0.289* 0.00775 0.109  (0.144) (0.189) (0.126) Renter 0.0327 -0.117* -0.0390  (0.0564) (0.0511) (0.0424) No religion -0.662*** 0.108 -0.409**  (0.178) (0.247) (0.138) Union household -0.146 0.147 0.214  (0.157) (0.162) (0.119) Immigrant 0.433* 0.131 -0.383  (0.210) (0.238) (0.261) Employed 0.248 0.169 0.0935  (0.163) (0.174) (0.123) Rural -0.202 0.402* 0.308*  (0.156) (0.167) (0.124) Montreal 0.113 -0.958*** 0.0244  (0.142) (0.198) (0.120) Anglophone 0.705*** 0.978*** -1.589***  (0.185) (0.231) (0.300) Government intervention 0.0658 -0.212 0.245*  (0.161) (0.166) (0.122) Same-sex marriage -0.464* -0.209 -0.226  (0.214) (0.206) (0.190) Soft nationalist -0.524*** 0.00606 2.129***  (0.158) (0.184) (0.197) Hard sovereignist -1.015** -0.612 3.251***  (0.370) (0.331) (0.211) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 51Antiparty sentiment 0.726** -0.121 0.720***  (0.224) (0.278) (0.209) Canada going in wrong direction 0.0120 -0.501* 0.0123  (0.164) (0.255) (0.148) Personal finances 0.000441 -0.137 0.316  (0.210) (0.267) (0.165) Health voter -0.0279 -0.424 -0.346*  (0.205) (0.235) (0.165) Corruption voter -0.0354 -0.953** -0.389*  (0.216) (0.309) (0.157) Economy voter 0.268 0.293 -0.440**  (0.178) (0.165) (0.150) Environment voter -0.0169 -1.619 -0.667*  (0.324) (1.521) (0.265) Social policy voter -0.326 0.0551 -1.488***  (0.328) (0.516) (0.356) Layton best PM -1.828*** -1.232*** -1.398***  (0.222) (0.244) (0.162) Ignatieff best PM 2.111*** -0.332 -0.0872  (0.225) (0.442) (0.220) Harper best PM -0.597* 1.911*** 0.316  (0.292) (0.258) (0.309) Duceppe best PM -0.801 -0.464 1.769***  (0.487) (0.609) (0.255) Leader voter -2.016*** -1.498*** -1.859***  (0.133) (0.149) (0.114) PM deserves majority -0.0395 2.733*** 0.0686  (0.228) (0.238) (0.205) Strategic voter -0.450** -0.0560 -0.927***  (0.142) (0.156) (0.122) Wants local MP in government 0.340 0.909*** -1.009***  (0.217) (0.268) (0.166) Wants minority government -0.262 -0.540** 0.503***  (0.156) (0.184) (0.120) Decided after debates -0.762*** -0.849*** -1.004***  (0.135) (0.148) (0.110) Constant -0.244 -1.402** -0.351  (0.464) (0.495) (0.392) Observations 8,780 8,780 8,780 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05   "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 52  Web Appendix 2 Multinomial Logistical Regression Results for Chapter 7   Multinomial logistical regression results for ROC  in 2015 federal election (see Figures 7.5, 7.7, 7.9, and 7.11)      Variables (Wave) Solid NDPer Converted NDPer Lost NDPer     West (1)a -0.514 -0.574 -1.210***  (0.476) (0.359) (0.300) Atlantic (1)a -0.0363 -0.106 -0.158  (0.684) (0.461) (0.372) Senior (1)b -0.734 -0.137 -0.455  (0.690) (0.419) (0.303) Age 45 to 64 (1)b 0.160 -0.0499 0.0832  (0.485) (0.364) (0.289) Female (1) 0.0796 -0.277 -0.803**  (0.473) (0.344) (0.265) Education (1) 1.113* -0.0537 -0.00811  (0.526) (0.341) (0.277) Union member (1) -1.105* 0.484 0.722*  (0.548) (0.398) (0.322) No religion (1) 0.647* -0.484* 0.0823  (0.550) (0.395) (0.316) Religiosity (1) -0.0841 -0.00679 -0.00136  (0.527) (0.381) (0.299) Visible minority (1) 0.468 -0.830 0.135  (0.827) (0.660) (0.438) Immigrant (1) -1.177 -0.861 -0.157  (0.660) (0.489) (0.361) Low income (1)c 0.0806 -0.261 -0.112  (0.566) (0.423) (0.363) Middle income (1)c -0.149 -0.704 -0.771*  (0.546) (0.392) (0.324) Rural (1)d -0.0920 0.468 0.209  (0.537) (0.402) (0.293) Suburban (1)d 0.910 0.563 0.330  (0.500) (0.377) (0.308) NDP partisan (1) 0.325* -0.516 -1.160**  (0.877) (0.760) (0.705) LPC partisan (1) -1.670 0.331 0.485  (1.361) (0.524) (0.414) CPC partisan (1) -0.405 1.931 0.408  (1.351) (0.743) (0.553) NDP partisan (2) 1.819 1.910* 2.004*  (1.064) (0.958) (0.904) LPC partisan (2) -0.221 0.264 0.265  (1.048) (0.508) (0.409) CPC partisan (2) -0.448 -0.384 -0.289  (1.544) (0.679) (0.535) Voted NDP in 2011 (1) 4.496*** 2.170 2.019***  (0.783) (0.606) (0.550) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 53Voted LPC in 2011 (1) 0.650 -0.670 -0.409  (0.782) (0.551) (0.404) Voted CPC in 2011 (1) -0.371 -0.432 0.851**  (1.699) (0.618) (0.444) Postmaterialism index (1) 0.411 0.267 0.802  (1.526) (0.947) (0.678) Market liberalism index (1) -0.290 0.895** -0.551  (1.476) (0.930) (0.784) Personal tax preference (1) 1.025* 1.412 0.885  (1.041) (0.846) (0.655) Corporate tax preference (1) 3.326* 0.488 -0.125  (1.384) (0.995) (0.729) Terrorism spending preference (1) -0.767 -0.0414 -0.137  (1.001) (0.710) (0.583) Poverty spending preference (1) -0.584 -0.519 -1.166  (1.392) (0.909) (0.715) Health spending preference (1)  1.926** -1.995* -0.00492  (1.318) (0.899) (0.682) Arts spending preference (1) 0.609 -0.0367 -0.338  (0.991) (0.682) (0.528) Aboriginal spending preference (1) -1.873 -1.412* -0.225  (1.099) (0.659) (0.484) NDP closest on issue (1) 3.180*** 1.680 1.610**  (0.786) (0.632) (0.586) LPC closest on issue (1) -3.914 -0.603 -0.231  (2.318) (0.509) (0.389) CPC closest on issue (1) 0.836 -0.660 -0.611  (1.285) (0.668) (0.446) NDP closest on issue (2) 2.254** 1.814** 0.849  (0.787) (0.690) (0.664) LPC closest on issue (2) -0.508 -0.812 -0.364  (0.672) (0.484) (0.388) CPC closest on issue (2) 0.838 -2.167 -0.178  (1.480) (0.785) (0.548) Like Mulcair (1)  7.345*** 2.368 3.167**  (1.910) (1.267) (1.000) Like Trudeau (1) -4.720** -0.394** -2.423**  (1.627) (1.297) (0.909) Like Harper (1) -0.349 -0.741 -2.734**  (1.971) (1.303) (1.019) Like Mulcair (2) 4.088 4.574*** 1.914  (1.637) (1.163) (0.896) Like Trudeau (2) 0.726 -2.349** 1.726***  (1.599) (1.176) (0.941) Like Harper (2) -3.369* 1.466 1.644  (2.390) (1.281) (0.926) Strategic voter (2) 1.475 1.176 1.101***  (0.508) (0.397) (0.333) Decided after Labour Day (2) -3.410*** 0.0842 0.591*  (0.572) (0.341) (0.264) Negative economic perception (2) 1.041 0.545 0.0928  (1.082) (0.763) (0.600) Thinks that NDP and LPC are not different (2)  -0.583 -0.133 -0.0354  (0.504) (0.332) (0.255) Agreement with NDP position on niqab (2) -0.875 0.799* -0.331**  (0.879) (0.561) (0.382) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 54Agreement with NDP position on cap and trade (2) 0.700 0.957 0.522  (0.830) (0.629) (0.460) Agreement with NDP position on pharmacare (2) 1.195 0.805 -0.0655  (1.224) (0.728) (0.548) Agreement with NDP position on budget (2) -1.727 -1.515 -1.164  (0.941) (0.683) (0.524) Agreement with NDP position on child care (2) 1.795 1.707 0.916  (1.100) (0.656) (0.456) Agreement with NDP position on Bill C-51 (2) 1.067** 2.432** 0.358  (1.316) (0.785) (0.527) Agreement with NDP position on TPP (2) 3.344** 0.130 -0.0375  (1.070) (0.673) (0.536) Agreement with NDP position on coalitions (2) -1.268 -0.742 -1.020  (1.125) (0.699) (0.553) Contacted by NDP (2) -2.080*** -0.331 -0.283  (0.513) (0.326) (0.239) Contacted by LPC (2) 1.227 1.416*** 0.689  (0.457) (0.331) (0.255) Contacted by CPC (2) -0.522 -0.900** -0.247  (0.453) (0.346) (0.265) Correctly identified CPC plan (2) 0.441 -0.835 -0.282  (0.788) (0.520) (0.379) Correctly identified NDP plan (2) -0.143 0.312 0.0665  (0.647) (0.434) (0.303) Correctly identified LPC plan (2)  0.00503 1.278* 0.194  (0.774) (0.586) (0.459) Agreement with CPC plan (2) 3.943 0.511 -0.109  (1.649) (0.943) (0.658) Agreement with NDP plan (2) 1.394 0.491 -0.437  (1.384) (0.894) (0.704) Agreement with LPC plan (2) -1.047 -1.810** 0.462**  (1.500) (1.027) (0.809) CPC brand (1) -3.286 -1.823 -3.454**  (2.243) (1.432) (1.090) CPC brand (2) 1.284 -3.772** -1.814  (2.403) (1.494) (1.223) NDP brand (1) 2.962 3.216 4.929***  (1.721) (1.358) (1.128) NDP brand (2) 6.373*** 2.797 2.797  (1.555) (1.278) (0.980) LPC brand (1) -2.580** 1.336 0.534  (1.640) (1.184) (1.003) LPC brand (2) -0.318** -2.935 -2.510**  (1.462) (1.183) (0.985) Constant -16.98*** -5.064** -1.438  (2.875) (1.771) (1.426)     Observations 2,181 2,181 2,181 a Ontario is reference category. b Under 45 is reference category. c High income is reference category. d Inner city is reference category. Base outcome is anti-NDPer. Pseudo R2 = 0.64 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05 "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 55  Multinomial logistical regression results for francophone Quebec in 2015 federal election (see Figures 7.6, 7.8, 7.10, and 7.12)      Variables (Wave) Solid NDPer Converted NDPer Anti-NDPer     Quebec City (1)a 0.853 -0.339 -0.201  (0.930) (0.546) (0.502) Rest of Quebec (1)a 0.788 -0.186 -0.459  (0.578) (0.406) (0.413) Female (1) 0.567 0.643 -0.00838  (0.505) (0.358) (0.360) Age 45 to 64 (1)b 0.650 0.0239 0.369  (0.507) (0.372) (0.454) Senior (1)b -2.931*** -0.0815 0.757  (0.769) (0.517) (0.543) Education (1) -0.284 0.0700 -0.329  (0.549) (0.365) (0.435) Union member (1) -0.342 0.0188 0.687  (0.507) (0.372) (0.347) No religion (1) -0.744 -0.191 -1.001*  (0.555) (0.389) (0.503) Religiosity (1) 0.547 0.264 -0.143  (0.560) (0.382) (0.381) Low income (1)c 2.104* -0.159 -0.466  (0.823) (0.519) (0.514) Middle income (1)c 1.739** 0.500 -0.429  (0.660) (0.376) (0.443) Rural (1)d -0.767*** 1.342* -0.423  (0.795) (0.632) (0.593) Suburban (1)d 0.836 1.286* -0.836  (0.686) (0.585) (0.557) NDP partisan (1) 0.658* -1.033 -5.695*  (0.622) (0.533) (2.322) LPC partisan (1) 3.232 -0.219** -0.187  (0.925) (0.623) (0.630) CPC partisan (1) 0.750 -2.066* -0.173  (1.497) (0.827) (0.619) BQ partisan (1) -0.516 -1.324 0.670  (0.851) (0.583) (0.611) NDP partisan (2) 0.0663 0.687 -1.934*  (0.663) (0.622) (0.965) LPC partisan (2) -2.301 -1.096 -0.603  (0.773) (0.619) (0.614) CPC partisan (2) -1.530 -0.702 -0.450  (1.481) (0.782) (0.708) BQ partisan (2) -1.258 -1.131* -0.882  (0.817) (0.594) (0.578) Voted NDP in 2011 (1) 2.657** 0.824 -1.641**  (0.908) (0.537) (0.618) Voted LPC in 2011 (1) -2.534 -0.430 -0.677  (1.446) (0.833) (0.838) Voted CPC in 2011 (1) 1.832 0.977 -0.731  (1.126) (0.709) (0.700) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 56Voted BQ in 2011 (1) 1.787 1.717* -1.067  (1.143) (0.729) (0.682) Postmaterialism index (1) 0.522 -3.158** -0.910  (1.707) (1.139) (1.443) Market liberalism index (1) -0.706** -0.980 2.080***  (1.570) (1.146) (1.151) Personal tax preference (1) -0.00811 0.496 0.368  (1.000) (0.851) (0.770) Corporate tax preference (1) 0.775 1.225 -0.527  (1.416) (0.818) (0.889) Terrorism spending preference (1) -1.104 -0.305 0.742  (1.142) (0.717) (0.685) Poverty spending preference (1) 0.270 -0.363 -0.990  (1.719) (0.959) (0.997) Health spending preference (1) 0.801 -0.367 -0.00213  (1.351) (0.753) (0.823) Arts spending preference (1) 4.425*** 1.846 0.517  (1.214) (0.735) (0.819) Aboriginal spending preference (1) -1.599 -1.194 0.820  (0.978) (0.688) (0.651) Sovereignty (1) 0.354 0.443 0.136  (1.457) (0.936) (1.076) Sovereignty (2) 1.275 -0.300 0.286  (1.629) (1.052) (1.074) NDP closest on issue (1) 0.585*** 0.0624 -1.546*  (0.637) (0.414) (0.615) LPC closest on issue (1) -2.124* 0.0769 -0.739  (0.958) (0.532) (0.575) CPC closest on issue (1) 0.768*** -0.132 1.089**  (1.102) (0.682) (0.584) BQ closest on issue (1) 3.584 1.723** -0.500  (0.780) (0.575) (0.749) NDP closest on issue (2) -0.241 -0.636 1.352**  (1.100) (0.801) (0.707) LPC closest on issue (2) 1.796** 0.0252 -0.405  (0.668) (0.467) (0.504) CPC closest on issue (2) -5.557 -2.653 -1.803  (1.311) (1.037) (0.646) BQ closest on issue (2) -2.617 -2.178** -1.914  (0.956) (0.681) (0.657) Like Mulcair (1) 2.245*** -3.427** -3.547***  (2.016) (1.314) (1.041) Like Trudeau (1) 0.0341 0.296 -1.909*  (1.463) (1.014) (0.941) Like Harper (1) -1.052 2.360* 0.716  (1.573) (0.975) (1.030) Like Duceppe (1) 0.698 -0.0424 -0.364  (1.215) (0.917) (1.100) Like Mulcair (2) 4.929 8.621*** -0.158  (1.930) (1.253) (0.949) Like Trudeau (2) -3.542 -2.155 -0.982  (1.833) (1.111) (0.960) Like Harper (2) 1.400 -2.164* 0.879  (1.629) (1.055) (0.967) Like Duceppe (2) -1.456 -2.338** -0.395  (1.275) (0.885) (1.031) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 57Strategic voter (2) 0.514 1.432*** -0.434  (0.654) (0.412) (0.416) Decided after Labour Day (2) -3.053*** -1.543 -1.384***  (0.503) (0.369) (0.352) Negative economic perception (2) -2.835* 0.939 1.006  (1.180) (0.793) (0.820) Thinks that NDP and LPC are not different (2) -0.000122 0.218 1.046**  (0.659) (0.404) (0.383) Agreement with NDP position on niqab (2) -0.103 -0.116 -1.120  (1.023) (0.713) (0.913) Agreement with NDP position on cap and trade (2) 2.988** 0.166 0.203  (1.132) (0.866) (0.844) Agreement with NDP position on pharmacare (2) 0.966 -0.788 -0.836  (1.158) (0.810) (0.671) Agreement with NDP position on budget (2) -1.301 -0.621 -0.233  (1.148) (0.795) (0.825) Agreement with NDP position on child care (2) 4.360*** 2.770*** -0.236  (1.055) (0.825) (0.746) Agreement with NDP position on Bill C-51 (2) 0.529 0.616 0.646  (0.965) (0.720) (0.703) Agreement with NDP position on TPP (2) 0.505 -1.754** -1.209  (1.087) (0.732) (0.784) Agreement with NDP position on coalitions (2) -0.843 0.662 -0.308  (1.111) (0.725) (0.729) Contacted by NDP (2) -0.367 -1.040* -0.114  (0.578) (0.430) (0.355) Contacted by LPC (2) -1.509 -2.883** 0.837  (1.062) (0.959) (0.787) Contacted by CPC (2) -0.546 0.302 -0.652  (0.683) (0.417) (0.448) Contacted by BQ (2) -0.219 -1.334 0.701  (2.283) (0.813) (0.854) Correctly identified CPC plan (2) -0.0984 0.573 -0.0377  (0.608) (0.405) (0.467) Correctly identified NDP plan (2) -0.342 -1.045** 0.103  (0.531) (0.405) (0.408) Correctly identified LPC plan (2) 0.556 0.995 0.0541  (0.775) (0.518) (0.463) Correctly identified BQ plan (2) 2.302 1.458 0.316  (0.958) (0.631) (0.657) Agreement with CPC plan (2) 0.0521 -0.938 0.104  (1.262) (0.836) (0.906) Agreement with NDP plan (2) -1.293 -2.239* 1.417  (1.484) (1.087) (0.980) Agreement with LPC plan (2) 3.359** -1.475 -2.566**  (1.266) (1.008) (0.942) Agreement with BQ plan (2) -2.363* -0.779 0.219  (1.012) (0.756) (0.722) CPC brand (1) 0.935 -0.613 -2.253  (2.021) (1.328) (1.690) CPC brand (2) -5.438* -0.401 -0.0949  (2.162) (1.412) (1.584) NDP brand (1) 5.492* -3.754** -7.700***  (2.576) (1.375) (1.605) NDP brand (2) 1.742 3.437* 1.055  (2.312) (1.657) (1.563) "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019. 58LPC brand (1) -1.616 -0.684 2.749  (2.021) (1.377) (1.540) LPC brand (2) -3.299 -2.046 1.388  (2.141) (1.664) (1.510) BQ brand (1) -6.880*** 0.743 0.373  (1.951) (1.270) (1.495) BQ brand (2) 0.600 0.697 -0.413  (2.040) (1.357) (1.387) Constant -8.344* 1.206 8.411***  (3.369) (2.272) (2.033)     Observations 1,591 1,591 1,591 a Montreal Census Metropolitan Area is reference category. b Under 45 is reference category. c High income is reference category. d Inner city is reference category. Base outcome is anti-NDPer. Pseudo R2 = 0.57 Robust standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01, * p < 0.05    "The New NDP: Moderation, Modernization, and Political Marketing," by David McGrane. Copyright UBC Press, 2019.

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