UBC Undergraduate Research

Modelling the Impact of Increasing Global Temperatures due to Climate Change on the Spread of Vector-Borne Disease : A Study of Dengue in Veracruz, Mexico Moody, Lauren; Said, Salma


Increasing temperatures result in a more suitable climate for vectors of disease; as a result, it is expected that climate change will increase the spread of vector-borne diseases as temperatures rise. A model was created in Python to examine how increasing global temperatures due to climate change affect the spread of dengue - a vector-borne disease primarily spread by the mosquito Aedes aegypti - in Veracruz, Mexico. The model integrated various temperaturedependent parameters to depict how dengue transmission by Aedes aegypti was influenced by increasing temperatures. The model, fitted using case numbers from Veracruz, Mexico, predicted how various greenhouse gas emission scenarios - and their predicted temperature increases - would affect the number of reported cases of dengue in Veracruz. Case numbers were hypothesized to increase with temperature due to the elevated bite, transmission, and survival rates of Aedes aegypti at higher temperatures. The model found that increased temperatures resulted in higher dengue cases under most emission scenarios, with the exception of the emission scenario associated with the highest temperature increase.

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