UBC Undergraduate Research

Studying HPV vaccination and infection through a simplified stochastic model Illing, Hannah; Porter, Imogen

Abstract

While HPV vaccination has been modelled through deterministic and STDSIM models, the use of stochastic models remains relatively low. We developed a unique individual based stochastic model for the spread of HPV in a group of individuals from the ages 15-30 in order to investigate and measure the effects of vaccination scenarios on infection rates, overall immunity, and response to outbreaks. This was done by measuring the number of infected and immune individuals over time, with standard deviations providing indication of predictability. Vaccinating solely females produced marginally higher acquired immunity effects than vaccinating both sexes which resulted in less variability in the frequency of infected individuals. The results of the study support the hypothesis that increasing vaccination rates would decrease HPV prevalence.

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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International