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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Commodity trade flows of British Columbia, 1961-1964 Peters, Joerg Ernst

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis was to estimate the commodity trade flows of British Columbia with all foreign countries and with the Rest of Canada. The general problems in the estimation of regional trade flows, the available literature on the subject, as well as two prior studies of British Columbia's commodity trade are discussed briefly. Exports and imports are estimated separately and are analyzed by commodity groups. The estimates of exports are calculated with the help of the available production and shipments statistics and the data on railway freight traffic. Because of the nature of British Columbia's exports it was frequently feasible to employ the national customs ports data in the estimation of trade flows to foreign countries. It was found that the provincial customs ports data underestimate the magnitude of exports, especially exports to the united States. As a result of the uniquness of many of the important commodities which are exported from British Columbia, the magnitude of exports could be determined with a relatively high degree of accuracy. Estimates of exports to the Rest of Canada have been based on the transport statistics or have been calculated as residual by subtracting from the shipment data an estimate of foreign exports as well as an estimate of the provincial disappearance. The Estimates of commodity imports have been based primarily on estimates of consumption within the Province. The estimates of foreign imports depend mainly on the accuracy of the provincial customs ports data, although in some cases an estimate of transshipment through British Columbia to other parts of Canada has been made. Commodity imports from the Rest of Canada have again been estimated as a residual. In this case an estimate of foreign imports minus foreign exports and an estimate of production has been subtracted from the estimates of consumption. The possible sources of bias resulting from errors in the data or from invalid assumptions are taken into consideration. The estimates are summarized in the text. All details of the calculations have been put into the Appendices.

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