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UBC Theses and Dissertations

An investigation of some technical methods of stock market forecasting Phelps, John Livingstone


The object of this dissertation is to investigate some of the more recent concepts and methods of technical forecasting of market trends, business cycles and individual security cycles and to indicate the sources from which such data may be obtained. This investigation indicates that technical forecasting is a useful technique for the security analyst which may be used to advantage. No attempt has been made to prove that technical methods of forecasting are infallible or that these methods may be considered superior to individual security analysis but rather that they should be used by security analysts in conjunction with other techniques. The problem is divided into three phases. The first phase, presented in Chapters I to IX, discusses technical market trend forecasting and the results are compared with actual market performances for 1959. The second phase, Chapters X and XI, considers the shortcomings of the earnings and valuation approaches of security analysis and contains a discussion of business cycle forecasting. The third phase, Chapters XII and XIII, illustrates a modified technical method of evaluating common stocks.

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