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Input output analysis and the first Malaysia plan 1966-1970 Bent, Colin G.

Abstract

This paper is divided into four distinct sections. 1. An explanation of the meaning of input/output analysis, especially the derivation and significance of the table of direct and indirect requirements. 2. An outline of the decisions taken in constructing the West Malaysian 1960 transactions table from a set of National Accounts - especially the treatment and valuation of imports and exports; producer versus purchaser price valuation of transactions; and problems of inconsistent and incomplete double entry records. 3. An explanation of the method of forecasting from input/ output tables. This includes discussion of: a. A method of estimating aggregate demand for Malaya for 1970. b. A method of projection of value added for each sector, 1970. c. The likely stability of the input coefficients over time. 4. Results; a. Differences between the 1960 and 1965 table projections due to changes in Leontief inverses and value added coefficients over time, as the economy undergoes change. b. Comparison of the table projections with the First Malaysia Plan projections: i. Are the Plan projections likely to be reached in 1970? ii. Why are some of the table projections so inaccurate? The paper concludes that 1. The projections from the 1965 input/ output table are generally superior to those from the 1960 table. 2. Under conditions of structural change, even 5 years is too far ahead to expect input/output analysis to yield accurate projections for most sectors.

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