UBC Theses and Dissertations
Modelling inter-provincial migration between British Columbia and other Canadian provinces during 1966-1970 Dabestani-Sharifabad, Alayar
In studying population, the migration component is the most difficult component to analyze effectively. The main purpose of this thesis is to analyze and quantify the migration flow between British Columbia and other Canadian provinces during the period 1966-70 and develop a model which is capable of forecasting this inter-provincial flow with some known probability of accuracy. In this regard the different data sources which are available are evaluated. Income Tax Return data are found to be more reliable and are available in more detail; therefore, this source is used. To find the best possible method of measuring migration flow different methods of migration were considered and theoretical models were found to be more sophisticated and accurate than others. Amongst these various theoretical models, the push-pull theories are the basis of the most theoretical hypotheses of this model. Linear step-wise and ordinary multiple regressions analysis, using computer "UBC TRIP" package' are the methods of investigation used to test the hypotheses. The two complete and simpler models of in- and out-migration and the complete model of net-migration for B.C. during 1966-70 have been tested. The combination of cross-section and time series analysis with 30 observations for 5 years and 6 regions in Canada (B.C. excluded) at 1 percent significant level with the total of 8 independent variables are the major components underlying the operational results. Distance, unemployment rate, climate, friends and relatives in other provinces were found to be the best explanatory variables. Also, climate was found to be an important variable to attract the migrants to B.C., while high unemployment rate has been the major factor of out-migration from B.C. Finally, some area for further research toward improving the quality of data which can have significant outcome on modelling internal migrations have been sketched.
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