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A marketing model of transportation demand at industrial sites Dawson, Ian N.

Abstract

This study analyses the factors which influence the volume of truck movement from urban manufacturing sites. The significance of these factors is tested by means of a case study of forty-three wood products plants in Vancouver, British Columbia. Some of the dangers of applying the assumptions of urban passenger travel "analysis to urban goods movement studies are discussed, with emphasis on the problems of aggregation and forecasting. A review of urban goods movement studies to date shows that previous research does not incorporate explanations of the causal mechanism behind variations in truck transport demand, but rather relies on simple within-site variables such as employment size to estimate the volume of trip-making. A marketing model is proposed. It takes the form of least-squares multiple regression equations which add marketing variables to the basic plant-size model. The development of the theory behind the marketing model discusses the expected influence of the manufacturer's physical distribution channel on his trip generation rate. Characteristics of the channel which are expected to be significant are the behaviour of customers for the product with respect to shipment size, transport supply, and their own function in the distribution channel. The effects of marketing variables are tested using data gathered by a personal survey of truck movements over a period of one month from wood products manufacturers. A significant improvement in the explanatory power of the marketing model over the plant-size model was revealed when the proportion of the manufacturer's market which is retail-oriented in taken into account. The same survey data was used to estimate retailers1 trip attraction rates. Size of their supply-market and truck capacity were found to be significant. Lastly, the future conditions which may limit applications of the model. are..discussed.

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