UBC Theses and Dissertations
The value of British Columbia’s natural gas used as liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export to Japan Dionne, Francois
The objective of this thesis is to determine the value of British Columbia's natural gas used as liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export to Japan. This value is calculated by a computer model simulating an LNG project in B.C. The model starts with an estimate of the landed price of LNG in Japan and works backward, costing every step, to the input-end of the pipeline delivering the natural gas from the field to the liquefaction plant. The value obtained is the opportunity cost of the natural gas used as LNG and can be compared to the opportunity cost in other uses and to the cost of supplying the natural gas. We calculate this value for both society and the private firm - the difference accounted for by the particular tax structure which would apply to an LNG export project. The base case estimates of the social opportunity cost of the natural gas used as LNG range from $3,645 to $4.12 (1981 Canadian dollars) per thousand cubic feet (MCF), depending on the scale of the liquefaction plant. The estimates of the private opportunity cost are very close to the social values - a difference of about 3%. A comparable estimate for the opportunity cost in use as exports to the United States by pipeline is $4.68/MCF although this figure is based on present and not potential contracts. A sensitivity analysis is performed and the capital cost and the landed price are found to be the variables with the largest relative impact on the base case estimates.
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