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UBC Theses and Dissertations
Transportation infrastructure project cost overrun risk analysis : risk factor analysis models Wu, Qing
Abstract
The main purpose of this thesis is to analyze some common risk factors and to propose several useful analytical models for cost overrun risk analysis in transportation infrastructure investments. Probability models and regression models are proposed and partially (due to data insufficiency) applied using the VIHP (Vancouver Island Highway Project) data. The VIHP case study shows that cost overrun ratio increases as project sizes increase for small road/highway projects (budget < $0.25 million) and bridge/tunnel projects (budget >$0.85 million). However for road/highway projects with budgets over $0.25 million, cost overrun ratio decreases as project size increases. Using the VIHP database, results of a distribution fitting model and a Monte Carlo simulation model are compared. Compared with the distribution fitting model, the Monte Carlo simulation model is shown to underestimate both the upper bound value of project cost overrun ratio and slightly the probabilities of cost overrun. The distribution fitting model and regression model are shown to have close estimates of project costs and cost ranges at each confidence level.
Item Metadata
Title |
Transportation infrastructure project cost overrun risk analysis : risk factor analysis models
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Creator | |
Publisher |
University of British Columbia
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Date Issued |
2006
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Description |
The main purpose of this thesis is to analyze some common risk factors and to propose several useful analytical models for cost overrun risk analysis in transportation infrastructure investments. Probability models and regression models are proposed and partially (due to data insufficiency) applied using the VIHP (Vancouver Island Highway Project) data. The VIHP case study shows that cost overrun ratio increases as project sizes increase for small road/highway projects (budget < $0.25 million) and bridge/tunnel projects (budget >$0.85 million). However for road/highway projects with budgets over $0.25 million, cost overrun ratio decreases as project size increases. Using the VIHP database, results of a distribution fitting model and a Monte Carlo simulation model are compared. Compared with the distribution fitting model, the Monte Carlo simulation model is shown to underestimate both the upper bound value of project cost overrun ratio and slightly the probabilities of cost overrun. The distribution fitting model and regression model are shown to have close estimates of project costs and cost ranges at each confidence level.
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Genre | |
Type | |
Language |
eng
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Date Available |
2010-01-16
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Provider |
Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library
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Rights |
For non-commercial purposes only, such as research, private study and education. Additional conditions apply, see Terms of Use https://open.library.ubc.ca/terms_of_use.
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DOI |
10.14288/1.0092815
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URI | |
Degree | |
Program | |
Affiliation | |
Degree Grantor |
University of British Columbia
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Graduation Date |
2006-11
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Campus | |
Scholarly Level |
Graduate
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Aggregated Source Repository |
DSpace
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Item Media
Item Citations and Data
Rights
For non-commercial purposes only, such as research, private study and education. Additional conditions apply, see Terms of Use https://open.library.ubc.ca/terms_of_use.