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Evaluation of static and dynamic predictors of recidivism among federally sentenced Aboriginal sex offenders Gélinas, Luce


This study examines factors associated with recidivism among Aboriginal sex offenders. Some of the factors are based on sociological theories put forth by advocates of the specific deterrence theory (Beccaria 1738-1794, Bentham 1748-1832), life course perspective (Sampson and Laub, 1993), and general theory of low selfcontrol (Gottfredson and Hirschi, 1990). Recidivism will be measured both as a probability of event occurrence (through logistic regression) and as "risk" of recidivating (incorporating probability and time duration through survival analysis). This study focuses on Aboriginal sex offenders released from prisons located in the Pacific and Prairie regions of Canada. The timeframe for this study is from January 1994 until December 31, 1998. Data were gathered through the use of the Correctional Service of Canada's automated system, the offender management system. Consistent with Gottfredson and Hirschi's theory, I found that low-self control increases the likelihood of recidivism. Sampson and Laub's life course perspective was partially supported. Findings indicate that recidivism is inversely associated with employment status. Marital status and level of education do not appear to be associated with recidivism. Finally, the findings show evidence that longer periods of incarceration serve to deter offenders as predicted by specific deterrence theory. Other factors such as age of release and level of supervision are also positively associated with recidivism. Recommendations for future studies are outlined.

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