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Post-Dayton: prospects for peace in Bosnia-Hercegovina

University of British Columbia

In 1995, after a brutal four-year war in Bosnia and Hercegovina, the initialing of the Dayton Accords brought an end to the violence. By accepting the Accord, the former warring parties agreed on both a cessation of hostilities and a framework for a Bosnian and Hercegovian state. This state has legal existence in international law and consists of two entities, the Federation of Bosnia and Hercegovina and the Republika Srpska. The success of the peace agreement in putting an end to the violence has been witnessed in the past two and a half years. However, the question remains, and this is the principal focus of the thesis, what are the long-term prospects for peace in Bosnia? The analysis focuses on the long-term aspects of ethnic conflict regulation: peace-making and peace-building. The approach used in this analysis is two-fold. First, we rely heavily on Fen Osier Hampson's framework for evaluating the Accords as they fit into the wider body of literature on peace settlements. Second, we employ the assumption that the best way to prevent a recurrence of ethnic conflict is to reverse the processes that led to it in the first place. To that end, we identify some of the processes that led to the war and analyse the present situation in Bosnia as to whether or not these processes are being reversed. The author concludes that although the range of issues covered by Dayton can be generally evaluated as well-written and comprehensive, serious problems remain. Most importantly, the structures put into place do little to reduce the saliency of ethnic ties. Further, although there has been progress, many of the issues which fuelled the conflict remain a problem.

Thesis/Dissertation

application/pdf

2009-05-26

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http://hdl.handle.net/2429/8294

Political Science

University of British Columbia

UBCV

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