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Abstract

The Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL) has been used in making admission decisions for over 30 years; however, the predictive validity of the test has been uncertain. The present study was intended to investigate the predictive validity of TOEFL scores on first term's grade point average (GPA). Participants were 97 second-year university students, 46 male and 52 female, in an international academic exchange program. Most majored in Humanities and Social Sciences. The predictor variables in the study included TOEFL total scores, TOEFL section I scores, TOEFL section II scores, TOEFL section III scores, oral proficiency interview scores, writing sample scores, and gender. First term's GPA was the criterion variable. The data were analyzed by multiple regression analysis with a hierarchical procedure. The results were interpreted on the basis of Cohen's (1988) conventional definitions on the effect size of R². The main findings of the study indicate that: (a) TOEFL total scores have a medium level of predictive validity on GPA (ΔR²=.142, ϱ