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A Bayesian technique of flood frequency estimation with application to the Yukon Territory

University of British Columbia

Some presently available methods of flood frequency estimation require considerable recorded peak flow data. Others generate large quantities of dubious artificial data for analysis. These methods are very difficult to apply to sparse data regions, instead, the main approach is to use regional methods. These have met with some success but are limited as not much of the available data is utilized. This thesis presents a method of estimating flood frequencies for sparse to abundant data regions. Several types of typically available data as well as subjectively assessed data are incorporated. Uncertainty in the data is taken into account and reflected in the conservatism of the results. The method is developed with regard to its subsequent application to the Yukon Territory. The assumption of natural peak flows following some mathematically describable distribution, forms; the basis of the method. Bayes' Theorem is applied to probabilistically determine the most probable distributions given the observed data. The theory, assumptions, method of solution and hydrologic considerations are discussed before the results of an example basin are presented. From the results, it can be concluded that the method gives reasonable results, in accord with given data, and that it is a logical working procedure to apply in practice.

Text

2010-03-26

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http://hdl.handle.net/2429/22701

Civil Engineering

University of British Columbia

Graduate