- Library Home /
- Search Collections /
- Open Collections /
- Browse Collections /
- UBC Theses and Dissertations /
- On the nonlinear behaviour of population dynamics in...
Open Collections
UBC Theses and Dissertations
UBC Theses and Dissertations
On the nonlinear behaviour of population dynamics in electric demand forecasting Hook, Chris
Abstract
The problem of electric demand forecasting is analyzed for behavioral traits in the hope that an underlying dynamical process may be revealed. It is assumed that since electric demand is closely related to population growth, the iterative chaotic quadratic difference equation should yield a deeper level of insight toward the understanding of such a process. In particular, the topic of mathematical dynamical systems is developed and then applied, first to problems of constrained population growth, and then to the pertinent issue of per capita electric power demand. A new, randomized quadratic difference model is developed whose behavior appears both predictable and unexpected. Of primary significance, it was found that the hypothesized underlying dynamical system was sensitive to both the level or rate of population growth and the mean level of a randomly distributed (where a gaussian distribution was assumed) per capita electric demand. This was concluded with suggestions on relevant analytical models to be used for forecasting under differing parametric situations.
Item Metadata
Title |
On the nonlinear behaviour of population dynamics in electric demand forecasting
|
Creator | |
Publisher |
University of British Columbia
|
Date Issued |
1988
|
Description |
The problem of electric demand forecasting is analyzed for behavioral traits in the hope that an underlying dynamical process may be revealed. It is assumed that since electric demand is closely related to population growth, the iterative chaotic quadratic difference equation should yield a deeper level of insight toward the understanding of such a process. In particular, the topic of mathematical dynamical systems is developed and then applied, first to problems of constrained population growth, and then to the pertinent issue of per capita electric power demand. A new, randomized quadratic difference model is developed whose behavior appears both predictable and unexpected. Of primary significance, it was found that the hypothesized underlying dynamical system was sensitive to both the level or rate of population growth and the mean level of a randomly distributed (where a gaussian distribution was assumed) per capita electric demand. This was concluded with suggestions on relevant analytical models to be used for forecasting under differing parametric situations.
|
Genre | |
Type | |
Language |
eng
|
Date Available |
2010-08-28
|
Provider |
Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library
|
Rights |
For non-commercial purposes only, such as research, private study and education. Additional conditions apply, see Terms of Use https://open.library.ubc.ca/terms_of_use.
|
DOI |
10.14288/1.0062883
|
URI | |
Degree | |
Program | |
Affiliation | |
Degree Grantor |
University of British Columbia
|
Campus | |
Scholarly Level |
Graduate
|
Aggregated Source Repository |
DSpace
|
Item Media
Item Citations and Data
Rights
For non-commercial purposes only, such as research, private study and education. Additional conditions apply, see Terms of Use https://open.library.ubc.ca/terms_of_use.