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UBC Theses and Dissertations

On the nonlinear behaviour of population dynamics in electric demand forecasting Hook, Chris


The problem of electric demand forecasting is analyzed for behavioral traits in the hope that an underlying dynamical process may be revealed. It is assumed that since electric demand is closely related to population growth, the iterative chaotic quadratic difference equation should yield a deeper level of insight toward the understanding of such a process. In particular, the topic of mathematical dynamical systems is developed and then applied, first to problems of constrained population growth, and then to the pertinent issue of per capita electric power demand. A new, randomized quadratic difference model is developed whose behavior appears both predictable and unexpected. Of primary significance, it was found that the hypothesized underlying dynamical system was sensitive to both the level or rate of population growth and the mean level of a randomly distributed (where a gaussian distribution was assumed) per capita electric demand. This was concluded with suggestions on relevant analytical models to be used for forecasting under differing parametric situations.

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