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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Estimating design values for extreme events Sparks, Douglas Frederick


Extreme event populations are encountered in all domains of civil engineering. The classical and Bayesian statistical approaches for describing these populations are described and compared. Bayesian frameworks applied to such populations are reviewed and critiqued. The present Bayesian framework is explained from both theoretical and computational points of view. Engineering judgement and regional analyses can be used to yield a distribution on a parameter set describing a population of extremes. Extraordinary order events, as well as known data, can be used to update the prior parameter distribution through Bayes theorem. The resulting posterior distribution is used to form a compound distribution, the basis for estimation. Quantile distributions are developed as are linear transformations of the parameters. Examples from several domains of civil engineering illustrate the flexibility of the computer program which implements the present method. Suggestions are made for further research.

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