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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Determination of reservoir daily operation policies by stochastic dynamic programming Tsou, C. Anthony


Reservoir operation policies are often formulated deterministically on the basis of critical flow hydrology. However, if a dynamic river daily flow forecast system is available for the whole season, the forecast information should be fully utilized in reservoir regulation. Given such a forecast system, two approaches to determining optimal daily operation policies for a single purpose flood control reservoir are suggested. Both approaches use stochastic dynamic programming: one involves the minimization of the expected value of flood damages, and the other involves minimizing the probability of occurrence of an undesirable event, which is a flood damage exceeding a certain amount. The probabilistic approach not only offers a set of alternative optimal daily operation policies, but also indicates the probabilities of being able to achieve the objectives, and thus it forms a basis for comparing and evaluating the alternative objectives.

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