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Determination of reservoir daily operation policies by stochastic dynamic programming Tsou, C. Anthony

Abstract

Reservoir operation policies are often formulated deterministically on the basis of critical flow hydrology. However, if a dynamic river daily flow forecast system is available for the whole season, the forecast information should be fully utilized in reservoir regulation. Given such a forecast system, two approaches to determining optimal daily operation policies for a single purpose flood control reservoir are suggested. Both approaches use stochastic dynamic programming: one involves the minimization of the expected value of flood damages, and the other involves minimizing the probability of occurrence of an undesirable event, which is a flood damage exceeding a certain amount. The probabilistic approach not only offers a set of alternative optimal daily operation policies, but also indicates the probabilities of being able to achieve the objectives, and thus it forms a basis for comparing and evaluating the alternative objectives.

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