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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Stochastic simulation for the operation of a flood control reservoir. Heyland, Stuart Dalton

Abstract

Most flood control reservoirs are operated on the basis of "fixed rules." The discharge from the reservoir at anytime is related to the reservoir level at that time. The rules are usually derived from the most severe floods which have occurred. However, if a method of forecasting future flows is available, as is the case with snowmelt floods, this information should be utilized in the operation of the reservoir. A stochastic simulation technique is proposed for generating equally likely series of future flows over the complete flood season. Two possible operating techniques have been considered in conjunction with the flow simulation procedure. One involves minimizing the expected downstream damages based on a damage function curve. The other operating routine obtains the average solution based on the assumption of perfect hindsight with each of the several possible flow sequences. Methods for using this information to determine appropriate operating procedures are given.

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