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Abstract

The on-road transportation sector is undergoing a technology transition in which policymakers have largely focused on diffusion of electric vehicles (EV) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To ensure the transition is sustainable and that it also alleviates transportation access barriers, EV diffusion must be scaled up and alternative electrified transportation must be made available to those for whom EVs are not possible. This thesis analyzes three gaps in this transition: (1) Households and (2) organizations left out by current EV policies and market offerings, and (3) households for which cars are not feasible or desirable. The first gap is analyzed with a total cost of ownership (TCO) to compare the net present value of EV versus internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) ownership for various household categories across Canada. Households differ in several spatial and behavioral factors, including variations in operating costs, temperature, household archetypes and their purchase decisions, and access to charging infrastructure. The analysis found that EVs can be more cost-effective at certain daily driving distances, with variation across Canada primarily due to differences in rebates, electricity and gasoline prices, and tax rates. The second gap is analyzed with a survey that was distributed to organizations with small fleets of vehicles in British Columbia, Canada (n=68). The results demonstrate that the barriers facing small fleets from adopting EVs can be categorized as relating to cost, incompatibility (real or perceived) or availability. The findings suggest that a bulk purchasing program is an appropriate government intervention to help address the adoption gap observed in small fleets. The third gap is explored with process tracing of the co-evolution of EVs and ‘non-car’ electrified modes (NCEM) in China. NCEM (including electric bicycles and tricycles and low speed EVs) diffusion occurred first historically, but EV innovation was foremost for China’s central government. Both clusters of innovation influenced each other in technology (battery type), user experience (pathway infrastructure and charging infrastructure), and governance (usage restrictions and state intervention). The diffusion of NCEM in China provides clues on how such alternative modes may be approached in North America and elsewhere.