Open Collections

Ardanaz, Téo Nicolas

University of British Columbia

Elections are perceived to be won by the candidate who best convinces the electorate of their worth. In reality, the voting decision is guided by a variety of influential forces. Many developed democracies now host various ethnic, linguistic, and religious populations, with differing ties, ideals, goals, and ways of life. This increases the intricacy of the electoral dynamic. Canada is no exception, as it is home to a substantial immigrant population, two official languages, and a multitude of religious groups that have influenced the political landscape since the early days of the country. This study examines the Canadian electorate. It asks whether the local linguistic context impacts the voter behaviour of francophones, allophones, and anglophones. It also tests the ability of contact, group threat, and social identity theories of group behaviour to explain voter behaviour in Canada, outside Quebec. To do so, this thesis employs the 2019 Canadian Election Study data and contextual data from Statistics Canada. It utilizes binary logistic regression to test the various hypotheses. While past studies have explored contact through the angle of prejudice reduction, this thesis innovates by examining the role of contact on electoral behaviour. It finds that francophone and allophone minorities respond strongly to group contact. They vote more Liberal in electoral ridings with larger numbers of the other linguistic minority. Anglophones act along the expectations of contact theory. They vote more Liberal in ridings with larger numbers of francophones. Francophones also respond to group threat, by voting more Liberal when their linguistic group numbers are in decline, and less Liberal in ridings where the francophone population has grown. Finally, this thesis reveals that francophones with lower ratings of their linguistic group are more likely to vote for the Liberal Party than francophones who rate the francophone group more highly. This also supports group threat theory, as an internalized feeling of group threat leads to francophone voters rallying to defend their group by voting for the Liberal Party. These findings reveal the important impact of the local linguistic environment on Canadian voters.

Text

2025-06-23

Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

http://hdl.handle.net/2429/91415

Interdisciplinary Studies

University of British Columbia

UBCO

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/