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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Comparing the SIR and I2SIM models for the COVID-19 virus propagation Song, Jerry


The COVID-19 pandemic has been present for nearly three years; we have acquired significant data about the COVID-19 virus. However, there are still many aspects of the pandemic unknown to us. In particular, it is still unknown what will be the optimal government decision for controlling the pandemic. The interdependencies between the various control policies are complex, with limited information about the relationship each policy has with each other and on controlling the growth of the virus. The I2SIM-RT software is based on the I2SIM concept developed in the UBC Power Research Group under Dr. José R Martí and was designed to simulate system interdependencies. This thesis will use I2SIM-RT to analyze the various protocols and restrictions implemented to counter COVID-19 in two areas in the world affected by the COVID-19 pandemic: British Columbia, Canada, and Hubei, China. We will also use the SIR Model, a model used in epidemiology to model infectious diseases, to assess the various government health policies intended to control the spread of the COVID-19 virus. This project will simulate the various government health policies implemented to counter the COVID-19 pandemic and how they affected the active COVID-19 case counts. We will compare the data reported during the pandemic with the model predictions obtained with the SIR Model implemented using MATLAB and the I2SIM COVID-19 Model using the I2SIM-RT software. A significant aspect of this thesis is to simulate the percentage of people who follow government health policies to see how their actions affect the number of active COVID-19 case counts. We used data from the British Columbia Centre for Disease Control to populate the I2SIM-RT COVID-19 Model. We adjusted different simulation scenarios based on different pandemic policies that will reflect the interdependencies between the policies. The Hubei, China data comes from the Hubei Ministry of Health. We investigated the Hubei government's various restrictions and policies that were used to suppress active COVID-19 cases and prevent new COVID-19 cases from emerging.

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