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An analytical framework to estimate downtime and model the recovery of buildings after an earthquake Vahanvaty, Taikhum Hussein

Abstract

While modern seismic design codes intend to ensure life-safety in extreme earthquakes, policy-makers are moving towards performance objectives stated in terms of acceptable recovery times. This thesis describes a framework to estimate downtime and model the post-earthquake recovery of buildings. Downtime estimates include the time for mobilizing resources after an earthquake and conduct necessary repairs. The proposed framework advances the well-established FEMA P-58 and REDi methodologies by modeling temporal building recovery trajectories to target recovery states such as stability, shelter-in-place, reoccupancy, and functional recovery, as well as by providing probabilistic seismic performance measures that are useful for decision-making. The proposed framework is implemented to evaluate a range of modern 8- to 24-story residential reinforced concrete shear wall buildings located in Seattle, WA. The assessment results indicate that under a functional-level earthquake (roughly equivalent to ground shaking with a return period of 475-years), the average probability across all building heights of not achieving a target shelter-in-place recovery state immediately after the earthquake is 16%, and the probability of downtime to functional recovery exceeding four months is 91.5%. These probabilities exceed the 10% threshold suggested for similar performance measures in the 2015 NEHRP guidelines and FEMA P-2090, respectively. Furthermore, the framework is used to quantify the impact of design strategies on the building’s downtime performance. The results illustrate that certain structural design interventions are effective in ensuring a small probability (

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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International