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The impact of 21st century climate change on ski season length for Western North American ski resorts under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios

University of British Columbia

Recreational skiing is an economically important industry that relies on specific climate conditions to operate and any negative changes could decrease profitability. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that the continued emission of greenhouse gases from human activity will significantly affect future climate conditions. As our understanding of potential future climate change increases, there has been an increase in a need to understand the impact on socio-economic systems. The aim of this study was to understand the potential impact of future climate change on ski season length for 155 recreation ski resorts in Western North America. Future climate forecasts for resorts were generated from fifteen IPCC AR5 models for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios in the years 2055 and 2085. A polynomial regression modelling the average daily temperature was constructed for all scenarios. Using an average daily temperature threshold, a simple proxy was developed for determining season length. Compared to the 1971-2000 historical base period, all future scenarios show a projected decline in season length. These trends will be more pronounced at resorts closest to the North American coast. Some resorts near the coast of North America are projected to have a complete loss in ski season. Furthermore, the RCP8.5 scenario increases the magnitude of these changes significantly when compared to the RCP4.5 scenario. These results emphasize the importance of moving towards the RCP4.5 emissions scenario, in order to maintain winter tourism at these ski resorts. The results of this study can provide a baseline for future studies of how anthropogenic climate change will affect ski season length at ski resorts in Western North America.

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2020-12-09

Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

http://hdl.handle.net/2429/76716

Earth and Environmental Sciences

University of British Columbia

UBCO

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/