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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Global seafood production from mariculture : current status, trends and its future under climate change Oyinlola, Muhammed Alolade


Mariculture is growing rapidly over the last three decades at an average rate of about 3.7% per year from 2001 to 2010. However, questions about mariculture sustainable development are uncertain because of diverse environmental challenges and concerns that the sector faces. Changing ocean conditions such as temperature, acidity, oxygen level and primary production can affect mariculture production, directly and indirectly, particularly the open and semi-open ocean farming operations. This dissertation aims to understand climate change impact on future seafood production from mariculture. Firstly, I update the existing Global Mariculture Database (GMD) with recent mariculture production and create a farm-gate price database to match the production data. I show that global mariculture production in 2015 was 27.6 million tonnes, with a farm-gate value of USD 85 billion. Secondly, I develop quantitative models to predict the present-day global suitable marine area for mariculture. The results show that total suitable mariculture area for the 102 farmed species is 72 million km²: 66 million km², 39 million km² and 31 million km² for finfish, crustaceans and mollusc respectively. Thirdly, I predict climate change impact on suitable marine areas and diversity. Results show that climate change may lead to a substantial redistribution of mariculture species richness, with large decline in potential farm species richness in the tropical to sub-tropical regions. Fourthly, I predict global mariculture production potential (MPP) under climate change. Results suggest that global mariculture production potential will decrease substantially by 16% in the 2050s relative to 2020s under the business as usual scenario. Finally, I develop a set of shared socioeconomic pathways for mariculture to assess the plausible future scenarios for sustainable mariculture under global change. The results highlight that future mariculture development and sustainability will depend on the efficiency of four domains; science and technology; society; governance and economics. Overall, the dissertation shows that climate change is a major threat to seafood production from mariculture. Climate change effect will depend on the species that are farmed, their locations and the farming operation/technology employed. Future research on the sustainable development pathway for mariculture should further expand on socio-economic modelling and projections.

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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International