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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Sustainable transport safety : applying updated community-based macro-level collision prediction models for Kelowna using manual and automated tools Garg, Vipul


Traffic-related injuries and fatalities are considered the ninth worst global epidemic, exerting an enormous social and economic burden across countries. Transportation planners and engineers are now proactively considering safety in the transportation planning process to improve the overall safety of the transportation network. Macro-level collision prediction models (CPMs) have been identified as a reliable planning-level decision-support tool to inform safety conscious planning. However, the success or failure of these models in one spatial environment depends on the quality of the dataset, appropriate model functional form, and time frame of model development and application. As road parameters, network design, regional socio-demographic and size of geographical aggregation unit changes over time, updating these models becomes necessary. This research reviewed the literature corresponding to the development and application of community-based macro-level CPMs. Based on the insights gained from the literature, community-based macro-level CPMs were updated for Kelowna using the negative-binomial (NB) and full Bayesian (FB) modelling techniques, and IHSPM model development module. The updated CPM results are in good agreement with past research that developed the original Kelowna models. One new and significant result in updating the CPMs, due to the availability of new data, was the decreased collisions with the increased proportion of roundabouts, a result seen previously only in micro-level collision prediction models. The updated CPMs were then applied to present-day Kelowna neighbourhoods, to identify and rank collision-prone zones (CPZs). A series of macro-level collision modification factors (CMFs) was developed to examine the impact of different exposure, socio-demographic, transportation demand management and network-related countermeasure strategies on the safety of a traffic analysis zone. Moreover, as the development of these models is a cumbersome, semi-manual, and time-consuming process that requires a sound knowledge of spatial analysis, and data analysis tools, this thesis assessed an online road safety planning tool 'IHSPM' that automates the development and application of community-based macro-level CPMs models, developed to date at STS lab.

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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International