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Reliability-based hydro reservoir operation modeling

University of British Columbia

A wide variety of factors make reservoir operation a complex and dynamic problem, including multiple operational objectives, hydrological uncertainties and dam safety considerations. Concerns have grown in recent years regarding reliability of existing hydropower storage and discharge facilities, as many of these facilities are aging and their failure could significantly impact reservoir operations and pose threats to dam safety. A number of reliability methods were investigated in this study and a formal reliability analysis process has been adopted to assess the reliability of water release facilities using censored failure data. The nonparametric product-limit estimation method was used to analyze the time-dependent reliability of different types of spillway gates and hydropower turbines, and parametric model fitting techniques were subsequently applied to fit reliability functions. Failure and repair events were simulated using Monte Carlo simulation, which provided random variables to capture the uncertainty of availability for hydro facilities. The reliability analysis process was integrated into a simulation-optimization operations planning model to develop a reliability-based modeling framework that quantitatively treats risk and uncertainties in hydro operations. A specific reservoir system in British Columbia was selected as to illustrate the model application. Results and analyses provided guidelines for evaluating and comparing alternative reservoir operating plans that incorporate reliability assessment and failure simulation. It is demonstrated that dam overtopping is more likely to occur due to a simultaneous occurrence of high inflow events and spillway gate failures than being caused by an extreme inflow event. The presented work highlights the needs to systematically collect and archive reliability data and to conduct reliability analysis for hydropower water release facilities whenever new information and data become available.

Text

2015-07-21

Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 Canada

http://hdl.handle.net/2429/54125

Civil Engineering

University of British Columbia

UBCV

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ca/