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Looking forward from the past : using Burma's history of military rule to understand its future

University of British Columbia

Burma's transition to civilian rule marks a significant development in its history. But while the burden of responsibility for the state now rests in the hands of elected officials, the relevance of the Burmese military, which ruled the state for decades, has not significantly diminished. The ability to understand the military's behaviour, both its reasons for capturing the state and its current commitment to allowing civilian rule, contribute to understanding how it will behave in the future. This paper will sort out the development of the institutional ideology that animates the Burmese military, namely a focus on preserving the territorial unity of the state; and it will identify the opportunity this has afforded military elites to pursue their own goals. From Ne Win to Than Shwe, the Burmese military has served as a powerful political vehicle that has allowed them near despotic control of the state while simultaneously constraining their behaviour. The use of purges and promotions to build internal loyalty and incentivize ambitious officers to heed the commands of leadership was instrumental in preserving solidarity within the military, but it also limited the autonomy of military elites to pursue personal goals. The continued use of such strategies within the military is indicative of the influence military elites continue to have on the behaviour of the Tatmadaw, but the separation of state and military have also tempered the incentives of military leadership to act counter to the interests of government. In order to realize their political ambitions, military leaders must now build partnerships with elected politicians, creating a new restraint on military behaviour. But this cooperative relationship will face future tests, as the desire of the military to remain autonomous will have to be reconciled with the government's natural inclination to increase oversight over the use of force within its territory. Such challenges to the institutional role of the military pose a risk to Burma's future, and the ways in which political and military elites will respond to this is key to whether civilian rule in Burma is here for good or another transitory experiment.

Text

2012-08-31

Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported

http://hdl.handle.net/2429/43139

Political Science

University of British Columbia

UBCV

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/