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Decision analysis framework for high inflow events for small hydropower reservoir systems Zaman, Md. Sazid


Hydro system operators are often confronted with a myriad of conflicting and challenging decision situations. In particular, managing hydroelectric facilities during high inflow or unusual events can be complex, time consuming and challenging. Most high inflow events that challenge operational planners are driven by hydrology, with either too much or too little water being available. Other factors such as unusual electricity market conditions, dam safety or equipment concerns also drive decision making. In a typical case operators try to balance multiple, and at times, competing objectives during high inflow events. In the case of high inflow subject flood events, Operation Planning Engineers are usually under time pressure to make decisions when the potential outcomes of different management options are highly uncertain. In such situations, planners must quickly make critical and important decisions taking into account the current state of the system and latest available information and forecasts. Their decisions can have environmental, social and financial consequences. The purpose of this research is to develop an effective tool for the Operation Planning Engineers in Generation Resource Management of BC Hydro (British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority), which can be quickly and efficiently used during high inflow events at some of BC Hydro facilities. We describe the process that we have developed to build a tool to implement a Structured Decision Making Framework for a typical BC Hydro facility. The tool addresses the inflow uncertainties associated with high inflow floods and includes multiple objectives that are difficult to measure by means of a common unit, which necessitated the development of utility functions and required a trade-off analysis to be carried out. In this paper we also describe a methodology to do the tradeoff analysis among the objectives. We present the results of the analysis for a flood event in the Cheakamus River, October, 2003. At the end of the project decisions made in real-time will be less dependent on the planner’s own risk tolerance and more aligned with corporate risk tolerances that are acceptable to senior management.

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