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Consideration of climate change in water quality modelling to inform risk based remediation of the abandoned Atlin Ruffner Mine

British Columbia Mine Reclamation Symposium; University of British Columbia. Norman B. Keevil Institute of Mining Engineering

Risk-based remediation of mine sites is informed by human health and ecological risk assessment (HHERA), with a regulatory requirement to confirm that site conditions, including receiving environment water quality, are understood now and in the future. Prediction of water quality is therefore of great importance for the purposes of evaluating regulatory compliance, remedial option development, HHERA, and risk management decision-making when site conditions have not yet stabilized, and water quality cannot be directly measured. However, water quality modelling is challenging due to uncertainty associated with seasonal variability in meteoric and climatic conditions. In the context of mine closure, the evolution of geochemical source terms over longer time scales adds complexity. Water balance and water quality models (WBWQM) range in complexity from simple spreadsheet models to complex dynamic deterministic or probabilistic models. Industry-standard software can be utilized for the dynamic modeling of complex systems to aid in robust decision-making and risk analysis by simulating stochastic and time-series inputs to capture current and future conditions and incorporate natural variability. A WBWQM was developed using GoldSim™ coupled with Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) to identify primary sources of contaminant loading, simulate receiving environment water quality, inform the HHERA, and help prioritize risk management actions at the abandoned Atlin Ruffner Mine. The model was calibrated to existing hydrologic conditions and used to simulate runoff for future conditions by developing and applying climate-factored meteoric inputs. Geochemical source terms were applied to the water balance and used to estimate contaminant loads and water quality. The results will inform the HHERA to ensure conclusions and recommendations are robust and reasonably protective of receptors under current and future conditions.

Conference Paper

eng

Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library

10.14288/1.0447214

Non UBC

Other

DSpace