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Modelling the Impact of Increasing Global Temperatures due to Climate Change on the Spread of Vector-Borne Disease : A Study of Dengue in Veracruz, Mexico Moody, Lauren; Said, Salma
Abstract
Increasing temperatures result in a more suitable climate for vectors of disease; as a result, it is expected that climate change will increase the spread of vector-borne diseases as temperatures rise. A model was created in Python to examine how increasing global temperatures due to climate change affect the spread of dengue - a vector-borne disease primarily spread by the mosquito Aedes aegypti - in Veracruz, Mexico. The model integrated various temperaturedependent parameters to depict how dengue transmission by Aedes aegypti was influenced by increasing temperatures. The model, fitted using case numbers from Veracruz, Mexico, predicted how various greenhouse gas emission scenarios - and their predicted temperature increases - would affect the number of reported cases of dengue in Veracruz. Case numbers were hypothesized to increase with temperature due to the elevated bite, transmission, and survival rates of Aedes aegypti at higher temperatures. The model found that increased temperatures resulted in higher dengue cases under most emission scenarios, with the exception of the emission scenario associated with the highest temperature increase.
Item Metadata
Title |
Modelling the Impact of Increasing Global Temperatures due to Climate Change on the Spread of Vector-Borne Disease : A Study of Dengue in Veracruz, Mexico
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Creator | |
Date Issued |
2020-04-05
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Description |
Increasing temperatures result in a more suitable climate for vectors of disease; as a result, it is
expected that climate change will increase the spread of vector-borne diseases as temperatures
rise. A model was created in Python to examine how increasing global temperatures due to
climate change affect the spread of dengue - a vector-borne disease primarily spread by the
mosquito Aedes aegypti - in Veracruz, Mexico. The model integrated various temperaturedependent parameters to depict how dengue transmission by Aedes aegypti was influenced by
increasing temperatures. The model, fitted using case numbers from Veracruz, Mexico, predicted
how various greenhouse gas emission scenarios - and their predicted temperature increases -
would affect the number of reported cases of dengue in Veracruz. Case numbers were
hypothesized to increase with temperature due to the elevated bite, transmission, and survival
rates of Aedes aegypti at higher temperatures. The model found that increased temperatures
resulted in higher dengue cases under most emission scenarios, with the exception of the
emission scenario associated with the highest temperature increase.
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Genre | |
Type | |
Language |
eng
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Series | |
Date Available |
2021-06-24
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Provider |
Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library
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Rights |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
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DOI |
10.14288/1.0398529
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URI | |
Affiliation | |
Peer Review Status |
Unreviewed
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Scholarly Level |
Undergraduate
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Rights URI | |
Aggregated Source Repository |
DSpace
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Item Citations and Data
Rights
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International