An Analytical Framework to Assess Earthquake Induced Downtime and Model Recovery of Buildings Molina Hutt, Carlos; Vahanvaty, T.; Kourehpaz, P.
This paper describes a framework to probabilistically model the post-earthquake recovery of buildings and provide quantitative seismic performance measures for buildings, expressed in terms of downtime. The framework allows us to model temporal building recovery trajectories to target recovery states such as stability, shelter-in-place, reoccupancy, and functional recovery. The shelter-in-place recovery state accounts for relaxed post-earthquake habitability standards, in contrast with the reoccupancy recovery state which relates to pre-event habitability criteria. The framework uses impeding factor estimates and repair sequencing methodologies informed by observations from the 1994 Northridge and the 2010-2011 Christchurch earthquakes. The framework permits probabilistically evaluating building robustness by estimating the probability of a building not achieving a target recovery state, e.g., shelter-in-place, immediately after the earthquake, or, alternatively, evaluates the building rapidity by estimating the probability of achieving a target recovery state, e.g., functional recovery, within a specified time frame.
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