UBC Faculty Research and Publications

Using Bayesian Tobit Models to Understand the Impact of Mobile Automated Enforcement on Collision and Crime Rates Ibrahim, Shewkar; Sayed, Tarek, 1965-


The Data Driven Approaches to Crime and Traffic Safety approach identifies opportunities where a single enforcement deployment can achieve multiple objectives: reduce collision and crime rates. Previous research focused on modeling both events separately despite evidence suggesting a high correlation. Additionally, there is a limited understanding of the impact of Mobile Automated Enforcement (MAE) on crime or the impact of changing a deployment strategy on collision and crime dates. For this reason, this study categorized MAE deployment into three different clusters. A random-parameter multivariate Tobit model was developed under the Bayesian framework to understand the impact of changing the deployment on collision and crime rates in a neighborhood. Firstly, the results of the analysis quantified the high correlation between collision and crime rates (0.86) which suggest that locations with high collision rates also coincide with locations with high crime rates. The results also demonstrated the safety effectiveness (i.e., reduced crime and collision rates) increased for the clusters that are associated with an increased enforcement duration at a neighborhood level. Understanding how changing the deployment strategy at a macro-level affects collision and crime rates provides enforcement agencies with the opportunity to maximize the efficiency of their existing resources.

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